    [Senate Hearing 108-347]
    [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]

                                                            S. Hrg. 108-347

                            CLEAR SKIES ACT OF 2003

    =======================================================================

                                    HEARINGS

                                   before the

                  SUBCOMMITTEE ON CLEAN AIR, CLIMATE CHANGE,
                               AND NUCLEAR SAFETY

                                     OF THE

                                  COMMITTEE ON
                          ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS
                              UNITED STATES SENATE

                          ONE HUNDRED EIGHTH CONGRESS

                                 FIRST SESSION

                                       ON

                                     S. 485

       A BILL TO AMEND THE CLEAR AIR ACT TO REDUCE AIR POLLUTION THROUGH
    EXPANSION OF CAP AND TRADE PROGRAMS, TO PROVIDE ALTERNATIVE REGULATORY
    CLASSIFICATION FOR UNITS SUBJECT TO THE CAP AND TRADE PROGRAM, AND FOR
                                 OTHER PURPOSES

                                   __________

                                 APRIL 8, 2003
                                  MAY 8, 2003
                                  JUNE 5, 2003

                                   __________

      Printed for the use of the Committee on Environment and Public Works

    91-748              U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
                                WASHINGTON : 2003
    ____________________________________________________________________________
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                   COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS

                          one hundred eighth congress
                                 first session

                      JAMES M. INHOFE, Oklahoma, Chairman
    JOHN W. WARNER, Virginia             JAMES M. JEFFORDS, Vermont
    CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri        MAX BAUCUS, Montana
    GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, Ohio            HARRY REID, Nevada
    MICHAEL D. CRAPO, Idaho              BOB GRAHAM, Florida
    LINCOLN CHAFEE, Rhode Island         JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, Connecticut
    JOHN CORNYN, Texaa                   BARBARA BOXER, California
    LISA MURKOWSKI, Alaska               RON WYDEN, Oregon
    CRAIG THOMAS, Wyoming                THOMAS R. CARPER, Delaware
    WAYNE ALLARD, Colorado               HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, New York

                    Andrew Wheeler, Majority Staff Director
                     Ken Connolly, Minority Staff Director
                                     ------

         Subcommittee on Clean Air, Climate Change, and Nuclear Safety

                      GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, Ohio, Chairman
    MICHAEL D. CRAPO, Idaho              THOMAS R. CARPER, Delaware
    CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri        JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, Connecticut
    JOHN CORNYN, Texas                   HARRY REID, Nevada
    CRAIG THOMAS, Wyoming                HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, New York

                                      (ii)

                                C O N T E N T S

                                  ----------
                                                                       Page

                                 APRIL 8, 2003
                               OPENING STATEMENTS

    Carper, Hon. Thomas R., U.S. Senator from the State of Delaware..    34
    Inhofe, Hon. James M., U.S. Senator from the State of Oklahoma...     1
    Jeffords, Hon. James M., U.S. Senator from the State of Vermont..    15
        Forum, weather and climate change, National Research Council. 17-33
    Thomas, Hon. Craig, U.S. Senator from the State of Wyoming.......    36
    Voinovich, Hon. George V., U.S. Senator from the State of Ohio...     3

                                   WITNESSES

    Colburn, Ken, Executive Director, Northeast States for
      Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM).......................    57
        Prepared statement, New Jersey DEP Secretary Bradley Campbell   115
    Hawkins, David G., Climate Center Program Director, Natural
      Resources Defense Council......................................    59
        Prepared statement...........................................   117
    McCullough, Glenn, Jr., Chairman, Tennessee Valley Authority.....    49
        Prepared statement...........................................   101
        Responses to additional questions from:
            Senator Jeffords.........................................   106
            Senator Voinovich........................................   105
    Melewski, Bernard, Adirondack Council............................    62
        Prepared statement...........................................   138
        Responses to additional questions from Senator Jeffords......   145
    Rogers, James, CEO and President, Cinergy Corporation, on behalf
      of the Edison Electric Institute...............................    55
        Prepared statement...........................................   109
    Trisko, Eugene, United Mine Workers of America...................    60
        Prepared statement...........................................   134
        Responses to additional questions from:
            Senator Jeffords.........................................   137
            Senator Voinovich........................................   136
    Whitman, Hon. Christine Todd, Administrator, U.S. Environmental
      Protection Agency..............................................    38
        Prepared statement...........................................    79
        Responses to additional questions from:
            Senator Jeffords.........................................    87
            Senator Thomas...........................................   100
            Senator Voinovich........................................    99
                                     ------

                                  MAY 8, 2003
                               OPENING STATEMENTS

    Carper, Hon. Thomas R., U.S. Senator from the State of Delaware..   179
    Inhofe, Hon. James M., U.S. Senator from the State of Oklahoma...   147
    Jeffords, Hon. James M., U.S. Senator from the State of Vermont..   153
        Letters:
            Americans for Clean Air..................................   171
            Clean Air Act, several organizations.....................   159
        Report, Mercury MACT under the Clean Air Act, NESCAUM........   154
    Voinovich, Hon. George V., U.S. Senator from the State of Ohio...   151
        Article, Akron Beacon Journal................................   176
        Report, Natural Gas 1999 Summary Report, National Petroleum
          Council...................................................248-329

                                   WITNESSES

    Bluestein, Joel, president, Energy and Environmental Analysis,
      Inc............................................................   188
        Prepared statement...........................................   228
    Krimmel, James, president, Zaclon Chemical.......................   183
        Prepared statement...........................................   207
    McSlarrow, Hon. Kyle E., Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of
      Energy.........................................................   173
        Prepared statement...........................................   201
    Metz, Richard, co-executive officer, Unimark, L.L.C..............   184
        Prepared statement...........................................   208
    Thumb, Steve, principal, Energy Ventures Incorporated............   186
        Prepared statement...........................................   214

                              ADDITIONAL MATERIAL

    Report, Natural Gas 1999 Summary Report, National Petroleum
      Council.......................................................248-329
    Statement, American Chemistry Council............................   225
                                     ------

                                  JUNE 5, 2003
                               OPENING STATEMENTS

    Carper, Hon. Thomas R., U.S. Senator from the State of Delaware..   334
    Inhofe, Hon. James M., U.S. Senator from the State of Oklahoma...   336
        Letter, Clear Skies Act, EPA Administrator Christine Todd
          Whitman....................................................   334
    Lieberman, Hon. Joseph I., U.S. Senator from the State of
      Connecticut....................................................   366
    Thomas, Hon. Craig, U.S. Senator from the State of Wyoming.......   337
    Voinovich, Hon. George V., U.S. Senator from the State of Ohio...   331

                                   WITNESSES

    Benson, Steven A., senior research manager, Energy and
      Environmental Center, University of North Dakota...............   353
        Prepared statement...........................................   401
    Brownstein, Mark S., director, Enterprise Strategy...............   377
        Prepared statement...........................................   442
    Bucher, Richard, W.L. Gore and Associates, Inc...................   355
        Prepared statement...........................................   404
    Cogan, Douglas G., deputy director of social issues, Investor
      Responsibility Research Center.................................   375
        Excerpt, Southern Co.'s Proxy Statement......................   440
        Prepared statement...........................................   421
        Reports, IRRC Social Services..............................423, 431
    Krozner, Randall S., member, Council of Economic Advisers........   338
        Prepared statement...........................................   389
    McGinnis, Jim, managing director, Morgan Stanley.................   374
        Prepared statement...........................................   419
    Monroe, Larry S., program manager, Office of Pollution Control
      Research, Southern Company.....................................   352
        Prepared statement...........................................   391
    Nappier, Hon. Denise, Treasurer, State of Connecticut............   369
        Prepared statement...........................................   408
    Taylor, Wes, president of production, TXU Energy North America...   372
        Prepared statement...........................................   415
    Thorning, Margo, senior vice president and chief economist,
      American Council for Capital Formation.........................   371
        Prepared statement...........................................   409

                          THE CLEAR SKIES ACT OF 2003

                                  ----------

                             TUESDAY, APRIL 8, 2003

                                           U.S. Senate,
                     Committee on Environment and Public Works,
         Subcommittee on Clean Air, Climate Change and Nuclear
                                                        Safety,
                                                        Washington, DC.
        The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 2:12 p.m. in room
    406, Senate Dirksen Building, the Hon. George V. Voinovich
    [chairman of the committee] presiding.
        Present: Senators Jeffords, Inhofe, Thomas, Cornyn, and
    Carper.
        Senator Voinovich. The hearing will come to order.
        I am very pleased that the chairman and ranking member of
    the full committee are here today. Senator Inhofe, who is
    chairman of the committee, has another meeting he has to
    attend. He asked if we extend the courtesy of doing his opening
    statement.

     OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JAMES M. INHOFE, U.S. SENATOR FROM
                         THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA

        Senator Inhofe, I really thank you for being here. We look
    forward to your opening statement.
        Senator Inhofe. Thank you, Senator Voinovich. There is an
    Armed Services meeting at the same time. There is a problem we
    have been trying to resolve, unsuccessfully.
        Thank you, Madame Administrator, for coming before us to
    testify on the Clear Skies Act. I know that the signal that is
    sent by your presence here shows how significant this is to the
    Administration.
        I would like to begin by complementing the Administration
    for taking the Clean Air Act into the 21st Century. This
    legislation cuts emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxide,
    and mercury by 70 percent, which is the largest reduction ever
    called for by any American President.
        As you know, the Clean Air Act has resulted in tremendous
    gains in improving the air quality in our Nation in the last 30
    years. Lead, which was commonplace in gasoline, is virtually
    gone from our air sheds. That has led to improvements in
    control technologies from the auto industry, power plants, and
    other industrial sectors.
        As a result, U.S. manmade emissions have declined
    dramatically for all six criteria pollutants. They declined by
    29 percent. That is at a time when population has increased by
    38 percent, the GDP has increased by 160 percent and the
    vehicle miles traveled 143 percent. It is a success story.
        The power industry has been a vital part of that success.
    Since 1970, emission rates at coal-fired power plants for
    sulfur dioxide and nitrogenous oxides have been cut by more
    than half. Unfortunately, each additional turn of emissions
    reduction in our Nation's States to reduce comes at an
    increasingly expensive price tag.
        The current Act is plagued by bureaucratic and sometimes
    contradictory programs. Every new significant regulation is
    greeted by endless rounds of litigation that do more for trial
    lawyers than they do to clean up the air. A prime example of
    that is the 1997 PM/ozone rule that still has not been
    implemented because of the years of litigation.
        Generators face an uncertain future as to what costs will
    be imposed on them. Without certainty, generators will hesitate
    to invest in significant capital necessary to build a new base-
    load coal plant to meet our Nation's growing demand.
        Two years ago, natural gas prices spiked and the Nation
    witnessed a crisis that took place in California. They spiked
    again this February going as high as $19.50. We should not
    strain natural gas supplies beyond its ability to continue to
    service residential consumers and industrial users.
        Preserving our diverse fuel mix also promotes national
    security. More than half of the Nation's electricity currently
    from coal. Our Nation has been called the Saudi Arabia of coal.
    As this chart shows, 85 percent of the ultimately recoverable
    fuel reserves on a Btu basis are coal. That's simply too
    important of a resource to push aside.
        I was talking to Chairman McCullough of TVA right before
    this meeting, and we both agree, we have to have all forms of
    energy.
        The only issue I remain concerned about is mercury. When
    the President's announced his Clean Skies initiative, we were
    told that the Phase 1 cap of 26 tons would be based on the
    benefit of controls installed to meet the sulfur dioxide and
    nitrogen oxide caps. It now appears that the 26 tons has been
    redefined as a cost-effective level. My constituents tell me
    that 26 tons is an unrealistic target and will cause fuel-
    switching from coal to natural gas, which I find very
    troubling. I believe we should return to basing the mercury
    level on actual coal benefits.
        I am pleased, however, that the bill does not attempt to
    regulate carbon dioxide, which is not a pollutant under the
    Clean Air Act. As you know, I am an avid proponent of taking
    costs into consideration. To the extent that there is any
    consensus in the climate change to date, it is that even the
    draconian Kyoto Protocol would have no measurable effect on
    global temperatures. In other words, regulating carbon dioxide
    would bring no measurable benefits, at extreme costs.
        The President's Clear Skies approach is the sensible
    approach and will result in the most significant reforms. By
    putting in place a cap and trade program based on the Acid Rain
    Program--the most successful and efficient program in the Clean
    Air Act Amendments of 1990--power plant operators will have the
    flexibility to choose which plants should have which control
    technologies, so that the system gets the biggest bang for the
    environmental buck.
        I look forward to your hearing today, Mr. Chairman.
        [The prepared statement of Senator Inhofe follows:]

       Statement of Hon. James M. Inhofe, U.S. Senator from the State of
                                    Oklahoma

        Thank you Madam Administrator for coming before us to testify on
    the President's Clear Skies legislation. I appreciate your presence
    here today and the signal it sends as to how important this legislation
    is to the Administration.
        I would like to begin by complimenting the Administration for
    taking the Clean Air Act into the 21st century. This legislation cuts
    emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury by 70 percent
    the biggest reductions ever called for by an American President.
        As you know, the Clean Air Act has resulted in tremendous gains in
    improving the air quality in our nation over the last 30 years. Lead,
    which was commonplace in gasoline, is virtually gone from our airsheds.
    The Act has led to improvements in control technologies from the auto
    industry, power plants, and other industrial sectors. As a result, U.S.
    man-made emissions have declined dramatically for all six criteria
    pollutants by 29 percent since 1970.
        The power industry has been a vital part of that success story.
    Since 1970, emission rates at coal-fired power plants for sulfur
    dioxide and nitrogen oxides have been cut by more than half.
        Unfortunately, each additional ton of emissions reduction that our
    nation seeks to reduce comes at an increasingly expensive price tag.
    The current Act is plagued by bureaucratic and sometimes contradictory
    programs, and every new significant regulation is greeted by endless
    rounds of litigation that do more for trial lawyers than they do to
    clean up the air. A prime example of that is the 1997 PM/ozone rule
    that has still not been implemented because of years of litigation.
        Generators face an uncertain future as to what costs will be
    imposed on them. Without certainty, generators will hesitate to invest
    the significant capital necessary to build a new base-load coal plant
    to meet our nation's growing demand into the future. Two years ago,
    natural gas prices spiked and the Nation witnessed the California
    energy crisis. Prices spiked again this February, going as high as
    $19.50. We should not strain natural gas supplies beyond its ability to
    continue to service residential consumers and industrial users.
    Preserving our diverse fuel mix also promotes national security. More
    than half of the nation's electricity currently comes from coal. Our
    country has been called the ``Saudi Arabia of coal.'' As this chart
    shows, 85 percent of the ultimately recoverable fuel reserves on a Btu
    basis are coal. That is simply too important a resource to push aside.
        One issue I remain concerned about is mercury. When the President
    announced his Clear Skies Initiative, we were told that the phase 1 cap
    of 26 tons would be based on the co-benefit of controls installed to
    meet the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides caps. Now it appears the 26
    tons has been redefined as a cost-effective level. My constituents tell
    me that 26 tons is an unrealistic target and will cause fuel switching
    from coal to natural gas, which I find very troubling. I believe we
    should return to basing the mercury level on actual co-benefits.
        I am pleased, however, that the bill does not attempt to regulate
    carbon dioxide, which is not a pollutant under the Clean Air Act. As
    you know, I am an avid proponent of taking costs into consideration. To
    the extent that there is any consensus in the climate change debate, it
    is that even the draconian Kyoto protocol would have no measurable
    effect on global temperatures. In other words, regulating carbon
    dioxide would bring no measurable benefit at extreme costs.
        The President's Clear Skies approach is the sensible approach, and
    will result in the most significant reforms. By putting in place a cap
    and trade program based on the Acid Rain program the most successful
    and efficient program in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 power
    plant operators will have the flexibility to choose which plants should
    have which control technologies so that the system gets the biggest
    bang for the environmental buck.
        I look forward to hearing from you on this aggressive initiative
    for reducing air emissions.

      OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, U.S. SENATOR
                         FROM THE STATE OF OHIO

        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        I am probably going to have a little longer statement than
    I ordinarily would, but this is an initial hearing on something
    very, very important to the future of our country and to our
    economy and to the environment. It is going to be the first
    that we intend to have during this session of Congress on the
    Clean Air Act. It is an issue that is critically important to
    me and very important to my home State of Ohio, which is a
    major manufacturing State. For several years now, this
    committee has been grappling with the complex issue of how to
    clean our air by reducing emissions without putting our economy
    in a stranglehold. Today, we are here to discuss the Clear
    Skies Act, S. 485, which is a proposal sent to us by President
    Bush to reduce power plant emissions and protect our economy,
    and improve our environment and public health.
        As we hear testimony on Clear Skies from our three
    distinguished panels, I think we need to keep in mind the
    important context in which we consider this legislation. I
    think so often here in Congress we get so wrapped up in the
    weeds and the grass that we don't see the big picture. It is no
    secret that our economy is struggling. One of the key reasons
    our economy is sputtering is that we don't have an energy
    policy. As I have often stated, we sorely need to develop a
    long-overdue energy policy for our Nation. As a member of the
    Energy Task Force, I will do everything I can to work for
    passage of an energy bill that harmonizes the needs of our
    economy and our environment this year. These are not competing
    needs; a sustainable environment is critical to a strong
    economy, and a sustainable economy is critical to providing the
    funding necessary to improve the environment.
        We need a policy that broadens our base of energy resources
    to create stability, guarantee reasonable prices, and protect
    America's security. It has to be a policy that will keep energy
    affordable. Finally, it has to be a policy that won't cripple
    the engines of commerce that fund the research that will yield
    future environmental protection technologies.
        Right now, about 86 percent of the electricity generated in
    my State comes from coal-fired facilities. The chairman of the
    committee has made it clear how much energy is produced in this
    country from coal, about 50 percent. For generations, the use
    of coal for electricity not only provided affordable and
    reliable electricity for Ohio manufacturers, it helped to keep
    the costs of natural gas down, as well. This combination of
    affordable electricity and low-cost natural gas is absolutely
    critical to the health of Ohio's manufacturing base and, just
    as important, our Nation's manufacturing base.
        The Clean Air Act, enacted in 1970 to protect and enhance
    the quality of the Nation's air resources, has been extremely
    successful in reducing emissions of pollutants. As these charts
    show, since 1970, emissions of all criteria pollutants have
    been reduced by 29 percent, despite the fact that energy use is
    up 42 percent, electricity use has grown 159 percent, and the
    Gross Domestic Product has grown 160 percent. However, the
    current approach to regulation utilized by the EPA is plagued
    with burdensome and overlapping regulations that are subject to
    costly and time-consuming litigation and have become
    unnecessarily costly.
        There are now more than a dozen separate regulations on the
    books for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide alone, with
    additional regulations around the corner. As this chart
    illustrates, the regulatory process at EPA is long, complex and
    costly. Further litigation over several of these regulations
    has already delayed their implementation, forestalling the air
    quality benefits that they were designed to achieve. This
    patchwork of existing and soon-to-be-implemented regulations,
    coupled with the delays bred by continuous litigation over
    them--on both sides, for that matter--has created enormous
    uncertainty for utilities, co-ops, and municipal generators.
    This uncertainty has curtailed investments in technology that
    would reduce emissions at existing plants, prevented numerous
    new facilities from coming on line, and caused several
    utilities to try to phaseout coal-based generation altogether
    by fuel switching.
        Fuel switching--changing from coal-based generation to
    natural gas-based generation--I believe is a tremendous threat
    to the economy of not just Ohio, but to the Nation as well.
    There are currently over 5,000 power plants in the United
    States that generate over 850,000 megawatt hours of electricity
    annually. In 2002, 19 percent of our electricity was generated
    by natural gas, as opposed to 50 percent generated by coal.
    Reliance on natural gas for even this much generation has put a
    tremendous strain on natural gas supplies and pushed prices on
    available gas to record highs.
        The President's National Energy Policy Task Force projected
    that over 1,300 new power plants will need to be built to
    satisfy America's energy needs over the next 20 years. Because
    of the emissions limits and regulatory uncertainty triggered by
    the Clean Air Act, the Department of Energy currently predicts
    that over 90 percent of these new plants will be powered by
    natural gas. Further, analysis by EIA and the EPA shows that a
    large percentage of coal-fired plants are likely to be replaced
    by natural gas-fired plants in the near future.
        We do not have enough natural gas to power all of these new
    facilities, and we do not have the capability to increase our
    supply to meet this demand. Unless Congress develops a plan to
    deal with this situation, we are looking at major natural gas
    shortages, spikes in natural gas prices, and significant spikes
    in electricity prices.
        Shortages in natural gas supply--and the resultant increase
    in natural gas prices--do not just affect utilities. Many other
    industries rely on natural gas, and I think a lot of Americans
    are not aware of this, such as the farming community, the steel
    and metal industries as is pointed out on that charge, chemical
    and polymer manufacturers. My chemical and polymer people in
    the State of Ohio are in deep financial trouble today because
    of the high cost of natural gas. They are completing with
    people in the global marketplace that don't have those large
    costs. It also impacts on the food processing industry.
        It is not difficult to understand why a major shortage of
    natural gas, coupled with skyrocketing prices for natural gas
    and electricity, will ensure that many of our companies will no
    longer be able to remain competitive in the global marketplace.
    I recently met with manufacturers in my hometown of Cleveland,
    about 50 of them, and I was shocked when two of them told me
    that they were seriously considering moving their operations
    overseas because of high energy prices.
        Although high electricity prices would severely affect
    businesses and their ability to compete in the global
    marketplace, it will have an even more profound impact on low-
    income families and the elderly, as some of you on this
    committee have seen before. High energy costs impact most on
    those that are least able to pay for it. This chart is based on
    the Department of Energy statistics, and shows that low-income
    families pay a disproportionate share of their income on
    energy, which prevents that money from being used for other
    necessities. The Centers for Disease Control states that more
    of our elderly and children died from heat exposure between
    1979 and 1999 than from all other natural disasters combined.
        For several years now, I have been trying to work on a
    bipartisan basis to head off this oncoming train wreck. During
    the last Congress we held several hearings on the need to
    harmonize our environmental and energy policies that
    highlighted the need to promote energy development and
    environmental protection. I worked with Senators Bingaman and
    Murkowski on comprehensive energy legislation, and with Senator
    Jeffords and Senator Carper to try to find a bipartisan Clean
    Air reform last year. Unfortunately, we were not able to enact
    comprehensive energy legislation on a bipartisan basis, and we
    are no closer today to solving the problems than we were a year
    ago, 2 years ago, or 3 years ago.
        In order to defuse the time bomb of skyrocketing natural
    gas and electricity prices that is sitting in our laps,
    Congress must enact a comprehensive energy policy that will
    increase our development of natural gas supplies and ensure
    that we have a diverse fuel mix for electricity generation that
    includes nuclear, renewables, natural gas, and coal. To get
    there, the Senate must pass both comprehensive energy
    legislation and also deal with this legislation that is before
    us today.
        In my opinion, the Clear Skies that you are here to testify
    about will improve the Clean Air Act by providing greater
    certainty that emissions are reduced, while providing a stable
    regulatory environment that allows utilities to install
    necessary pollution controls without the fear that those
    controls will be obsolete before they are paid for. It will
    result in cleaner air, less regulation and litigation, and
    lower energy costs to manufacturers and American consumers.
    Simply put, this legislation can provide tremendous benefits to
    the environment, and is crucial to the long-term survival of
    our economy and our manufacturing base.
        I am not going to get into the details of the legislation
    in terms of the tonnage that is going to be reduced, because I
    am sure that you will mention that in your testimony. But I
    will mention that the emissions cap and trading program in
    Clear Skies is based on the proven success of the Acid Rain
    Program contained in Title IV of the Clean Air Act, which to
    date has been the most effective clean air program, having
    reduced SO2 emissions by 37 percent through 2000,
    while saving hundreds of millions of dollars in compliance
    costs.
        The Clear Skies Program will provide power plants with the
    flexibility to choose among various options for reducing
    emissions that best fits their specific circumstances, while
    saving over $1 billion in compliance costs.
        Clear Skies also contains several provisions that reform
    existing Clean Air Act programs to streamline the regulatory
    process and help reduce the existing patchwork of regulations
    and rules.
        The flexibility of Clear Skies' market-based cap and trade
    program and the certainty of its emissions reduction targets,
    combined with these reforms, will ensure that real reductions
    called for in this bill can be achieved without forcing
    utilities to fuel-switch and without forcing electricity and
    natural gas prices through the roof. Perhaps most importantly,
    Clear Skies will help ensure that the least of our brothers and
    sisters will not be forced to forego heating their homes, and
    that our companies will not be forced to move overseas to
    remain competitive in the global marketplace due to high
    electricity and natural gas prices.
        As I mentioned at the beginning of my remarks--and I
    apologize for the length of them--this is the first of several
    hearings that we intend to hold in this subcommittee on Clear
    Skies. It is my intention to mark up Clear Skies at the
    subcommittee level as quickly as possible, and I will push hard
    to have the full committee report a bill to the floor and have
    the Senate pass it during this Congress.
        I want to thank our witnesses this afternoon. Administrator
    Whitman, I appreciate your coming to present the President's
    proposal to the subcommittee.
        It is also a pleasure to have the Administrator testify
    before us today, especially on a topic as important as this
    one. I look forward to your testimony. I look forward to the
    testimony of the other witnesses that will be before us today.
        Senator Jeffords is the ranking member of the Environment
    and Public Works Committee.
        [The prepared statement of Senator Voinovich follows:]

     Statement of Hon. George V. Voinovich, U.S. Senator from the State of
                                      Ohio

        This hearing is the first of several that we intend to have during
    this Congress on reforms to the Clean Air Act. This is an issue that is
    critically important to me and to my home State of Ohio, a major
    manufacturing State. For several years now, this committee has been
    grappling with the complex issue of how to clean our air by reducing
    emissions without putting our economy in a stranglehold. Today, we are
    here to discuss the Clear Skies Act (S. 485), which is a proposal sent
    to us by President Bush to reduce power plant emissions and protect our
    economy.
        As we hear testimony on Clear Skies from our three distinguished
    panels today, I think we need to keep in mind the important context in
    which we consider this legislation. It is no secret that our economy is
    struggling. One of the key reasons our economy is sputtering is that we
    don't have an energy policy. As I have often stated, we sorely need to
    develop a long overdue energy policy for our Nation. As a member of the
    Energy Task Force, I will do everything I can to work for passage of an
    energy bill that harmonizes the needs of our economy and our
    environment this year. These are not competing needs. A sustainable
    environment is critical to a strong economy, and a sustainable economy
    is critical to providing the funding necessary to improve our
    environment.
        We need a policy that broadens our base of energy resources to
    create stability, guarantee reasonable prices, and protect America's
    security. It has to be a policy that will keep energy affordable.
    Finally, it has to be a policy that won't cripple the engines of
    commerce that fund the research that will yield future environmental
    protection technologies.
        Right now, about 86 percent of the electricity generated in Ohio
    comes from coal-fired facilities. For generations, the use of coal for
    electricity generation has not only provided affordable and reliable
    electricity for Ohio manufacturers, it has helped to keep the costs of
    natural gas down as well. This combination of affordable electricity
    and low-cost natural gas is absolutely critical to the health of Ohio's
    manufacturing base, and our Nation's manufacturing base.
        The absence of a comprehensive national policy that harmonizes
    energy production and environmental protection has led to an
    unfortunate (and predictable) situation in which the rules and
    regulations intended to protect our environment are threatening to
    undermine our economy while failing to achieve significant
    environmental goals.
        The Clean Air Act, enacted in 1970 to protect and enhance the
    quality of the nation's air resources, has been extremely successful in
    reducing emissions of pollutants. As these charts show--Since 1970,
    emissions of all criteria pollutants have been reduced by 29 percent
    despite the fact that energy use is up 42 percent [CHART 1],
    electricity use has grown 159 percent and Gross Domestic Product has
    grown 158 percent [CHART 2]. However, the current approach to
    regulation utilized by the EPA is plagued with burdensome and
    overlapping regulations that are subject to costly and time-consuming
    litigation and have become unnecessarily costly.

        There are now more than a dozen separate regulations on the books
    for sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) alone with
    additional regulations around the corner. As this chart illustrates,
    the regulatory process at EPA is long, complex and costly [CHART 3].
    Further, litigation over several of these regulations has already
    delayed their implementation, forestalling the air quality benefits
    that they were designed to achieve. This patchwork of existing and
    soon-to-be-implemented regulations, coupled with the delays bred by
    continuous litigation over them, has created enormous uncertainty for
    utilities, co-ops, and municipal generators. This uncertainty has
    curtailed investments in technology that would reduce emissions at
    existing plants, prevented numerous new facilities from coming online,
    and caused several utilities to try to phase-out coal-based generation
    altogether by fuel switching.

        Fuel switching changing from coal-based generation to natural gas-
    based generation is a tremendous threat to the economy of not just
    Ohio, but to the Nation as well. There are currently over 5,000 power
    plants in the United States that generate over 850,000 megawatt hours
    of electricity annually. In 2002, 19 percent of our electricity was
    generated by natural gas as opposed to 50 percent generated by coal
    [CHART 4]. Reliance on natural gas for even this much generation has
    put a tremendous strain on natural gas supplies and pushed prices on
    available gas to record high prices.

        The President's National Energy Policy Task Force projected that
    over 1,300 new power plants will need to be built to satisfy America's
    energy needs over the next 20 years. Because of the emissions limits
    and regulatory uncertainty triggered by the Clean Air Act, the
    Department of Energy currently predicts that over 90 percent of these
    new plants will be powered by natural gas. Further, analysis by EIA and
    the EPA shows that a large percentage of coal-fired plants are likely
    to be replaced by natural gas-fired plants in the near future.
        We do not have enough natural gas to power all of these new
    facilities, and we do not have the capability to increase our supply to
    meet this demand [CHART 5]. Unless Congress develops a plan to deal
    with this situation, we are looking at major natural gas shortages,
    spikes in natural gas prices, and spikes in electricity prices.

        Shortages in natural gas supply and the resultant increase in
    natural gas prices do not just affect utilities. Many other industries
    rely on natural gas such as the Farming Community, the Steel and Metal
    Industries, Chemical and Polymers Manufacturers and Food Processing
    Industry [CHART 6]. It is not difficult to understand why a major
    shortage of natural gas coupled with skyrocketing prices for natural
    gas and electricity will ensure that many of our companies will no
    longer be able to remain competitive in the global marketplace. I
    recently met with a group of Manufacturers in my hometown of Cleveland.
    I was shocked when two of them told me that they were seriously
    considering moving their operations overseas because of high energy
    prices.

        Although high electricity prices would severely affect businesses
    and their ability to compete in the global marketplace, it will have an
    even more profound impact on low-income families and the elderly.
    Everyday, many Americans are forced to make choices between paying for
    electricity or food and other essentials such as medicine when energy
    prices are high. This chart, based on Department of Energy statistics
    shows that low-income families pay a disproportionate share of their
    income on energy which prevents that money from being used for other
    necessities [CHART 7]. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) states that
    more of our elderly and children die from heat exposure (8,015 between
    1979 and 1999) than from all other natural disasters combined. The CDC
    also claims that air conditioning is the No. 1 preventative factor
    against heat exposure.

        For several years now, I have been trying to work on a bipartisan
    basis to head off this oncoming train wreck. During the last Congress,
    I held several hearings on the need to harmonize our environmental and
    energy policies that highlighted the need to promote energy development
    and environmental protection. I worked with Senators Bingaman and
    (Frank) Murkowski on comprehensive energy legislation, and with Senator
    Jeffords and Senator Carper to try to find a bipartisan compromise on
    Clean Air Act reform. Unfortunately, we were not able to enact
    comprehensive energy legislation or reach a bipartisan Clean Air
    agreement, and we are no closer to solving these very real problems.
        In order to defuse the time bomb of skyrocketing natural gas and
    electricity prices that is sitting in our lap, Congress must enact a
    comprehensive energy policy that will increase our development of
    natural gas supplies and ensure that we have a diverse fuel mix for
    electricity generation that includes nuclear, renewables, natural gas
    and coal. To get there, the Senate must pass both comprehensive energy
    legislation that promotes domestic natural gas development and multi-
    pollutant legislation that will streamline the regulatory process,
    maintain the diversity of our fuel mix and achieve greater emissions
    cuts to protect our environment.
        While the task of passing comprehensive energy legislation is
    underway over in the Energy Committee and I commend Chairman Domenci
    for the work he doing on the bill--the task of passing multi-pollutant
    legislation falls on us here in this committee.
        Earlier this year, in order to move multi-pollutant legislation
    that will protect both our environment and our economy through the
    committee, Chairman Inhofe and I introduced the Clear Skies Act (S.
    485) by request. This bill--which calls for 70 percent reductions in
    SO2, NOx, and Mercury--will deliver far-reaching benefits
    and maintain energy diversity by expanding and strengthening a proven
    mandatory, market-based approach to reducing emissions.
        The Clear Skies Act will improve the Clean Air Act by providing
    greater certainty that emissions are reduced while providing a stable
    regulatory environment that allows utilities to install necessary
    pollution controls without the fear that those controls will be
    obsolete before they are paid-for. It will result in cleaner air, less
    regulation and litigation, and lower energy costs to manufacturers and
    American consumers. Simply put, this legislation will provide
    tremendous benefits to the environment and is crucial to the long-term
    survival of our economy and our manufacturing base.
        Specifically, the Clear Skies Act would establish federally
    enforceable emissions limits for SO2, NOx and Mercury. For
    SO2, Clear Skies sets a Phase I cap of 4.5 million tons in
    2010 and a Phase II cap of 3 million tons in 2018 down from 11.2
    million tons in 2000. For NOx, Clear Skies sets a Phase I cap of 2.1
    million tons in 2008 and a Phase II cap of 1.7 million tons in 2018
    down from 5.1 million tons in 2000. For Mercury, Clear Skies sets a
    Phase I cap of 26 tons in 2010 and Phase II cap of 15 tons in 2018 down
    from 48 tons in 2000. These reductions are a not only robust a 73
    percent reduction for SO2, a 67 percent reduction for NOx,
    and a 69 percent reduction for Mercury, they would constitute the
    largest Clean Air Act emission reduction targets ever requested by a
    President.
        The emissions cap and trading program in Clear Skies is based on
    the proven success of the acid rain program contained in Title IV of
    the Clean Air Act--which to date has been the most effective clean air
    program, having reduced SO2 emissions by 37 percent through
    2000 while saving hundreds of millions of dollars in compliance costs.
    The Clear Skies program will provide power plants with the flexibility
    to choose among various options for reducing emissions that best fits
    their specific circumstances while saving over $1 billion annually in
    compliance costs.
        Clear Skies also contains several provisions that reform existing
    Clean Air Act programs to streamline the regulatory process and help
    reduce the existing patchwork of regulations and rules.
        The flexibility of the Clear Skies' market-based cap and trade
    program and the certainty of its emissions reduction targets--combined
    with these reforms--will ensure that the real reductions called for in
    this bill can be achieved without forcing utilities to fuel switch and
    without forcing electricity and natural gas prices through the roof.
    Perhaps most importantly, Clear Skies will help ensure that the least
    of our brothers and sisters will not be forced to forego heating their
    homes--and that our companies will not be forced to move overseas to
    remain competitive in the global market due to sky-high electricity and
    natural gas prices.
        As I mentioned at the beginning of my remarks, this is the first of
    several hearings that we intend to hold in this Subcommittee on Clear
    Skies. It is my intention to mark-up Clear Skies at the Subcommittee
    level as quickly as possible and I will push hard to have the full
    committee report a bill to the floor--and to have the Senate pass it
    this Congress.
        I want to thank our first witness this afternoon, Administrator
    Whitman, for coming to present President Bush's proposal to the
    Subcommittee. It is always a pleasure to have the Administrator testify
    before us especially on a topic as important as this one.
        I look forward also to the testimony of our other witnesses and to
    working with the members of this Subcommittee as we move forward on
    this vital legislation.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Jeffords?

    OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JAMES M. JEFFORDS, U.S. SENATOR FROM
                          THE STATE OF VERMONT

        Senator Jeffords. Thank you, Senator. I am glad you are
    continuing to pursue multi-pollutant legislation. That's one of
    my favorite topics, as you well know.
        Also, I am pleased that the Administrator has come by today
    to listen to us.
        As most people know, I am a sponsor of S. 366, the Clean
    Power Act of 2003. This pollutant legislation has 19 other
    cosponsors, both Democrats and Republicans. Our bill is nearly
    identical to the one reported out by the committee last year.
    This bill basically passed the committee last year. Its
    ambitious deadlines show that we want to reduce emissions of
    core pollutants quickly to protect human health and the
    environment. The Administration's plan, Clear Skies, takes a
    different much more leisurely approach toward a few of our
    goals. This is troubling to me, since every moment of delay
    means more people that die prematurely due to power plant
    pollution. More acid rain will fall, and more mercury will spew
    into our lakes and streams, threatening children's health.
        The often-quoted and peer-reviewed study of Abt Associates
    says that power plant pollution, mainly fin particulate matter,
    is causing approximately 30,000 premature deaths annually.
    That's happening now, and I hope everyone here considers that a
    crisis.
        And yet, the Administration has not acted to regulate
    sources of this pollution under its broad authority granted by
    the existing Clean Air Act. One might even say that the
    Administration is deregulating these sources through the so-
    called NSR reforms and increasing pollution.
        If the Administration were to act aggressively under the
    Clean Air Act's present authorities, according to the scenario
    that EPA presented to industry in the fall of 2001, then the
    bars in yellow on this chart are the kinds of emission levels
    we would see. Clearly, these levels are substantially lower
    than those for the pollutants under Clear Skies.
        If the Adminstration were to put forward the original EPA
    ``straw proposal''--that was the agency's interpretation in
    2001 of what levels of reductions are necessary and feasible to
    protect public health--the numbers would be much lower than
    Clear Skies, almost down to the yellow levels you see on the
    chart.
        Instead of these two decent options, the Administration has
    put forward Clear Skies. Apparently, the only way to make Clear
    Skies' levels and timing look good is to assume a ``Rip Van
    Winkle'' approach at EPA. That means that EPA would have to be
    essentially asleep at the switch for the next decade and not
    regulate any further.
        We know that is ridiculous at best, given the millions of
    people who are and will be living in areas with unhealthy air.
    Indeed, today's utility witness lays out the numerous
    regulations which will require emission reductions from power
    plants over the next decade and longer.
        And finally, it is ``whistling past the graveyard'' for the
    Administration to continue ignoring the need to control
    greenhouse gas emissions. As global warming skeptics have told
    us, increasing emissions increases the risk of global change. I
    ask that a summary of a forum on weather and climate at the
    National Academy of Sciences be included in the record.
        [The referenced document follows:]

        Senator Jeffords. Omitting carbon dioxide from a long-term
    emissions control program; that will drive investments makes no
    sense from a financial or an environmental perspective. As the
    CEO from Cinergy will tell us, and has told us in the past,
    certainty is important. The Administration has not provided
    certainty on carbon.
        In its legislation the Administration asks Congress to do
    away with or downgrade the numerous programs that Congress
    established to protect local and regional air quality and to
    push control technology forward. This includes hurting States'
    ability to stop interstate pollution, cutting provisions to
    protect air quality and visibility in the National Parks, and
    delaying air toxics reduction efforts.
        In this legislation the Administration has asked Congress
    to extend attainment deadlines beyond current law, so people
    will breath unhealthy and smoggy air even longer. They want us
    to adopt a host of weak emissions performance standards, even
    weaker than current practice. These are supposed to take the
    place of the New Source Review requirements and are unrelated
    to local air quality needs.
        In exchange for all of this deregulation, we will get caps
    that are not adequate or timely enough to save all the saveable
    lives and protect the environment, and these caps will not
    stimulate the technological development that will allow us to
    use our vast coal resources safely and effectively.
        Obviously, this exchange isn't acceptable at all of the
    supporters of my bill, and Clear Skies will not become law.
    But, as I have said several times over the last 2 years, I am
    more than happy to collaborate with the Administration and all
    of the interested parties to move comprehensive 4-pollutant or
    3.5-pollutant legislation. It could become law quickly with
    Administration support; so far, however, my offer of compromise
    has been treated with silence or disdain.
        Finally, on an unrelated note, while the Administration is
    here, I want to say that I appreciate the EPA's efforts to take
    immediate emergency action at the Elizabeth Mine Superfund site
    in Vermont, in the agency's words to address ``the potential
    for a slope failure and tailing flood wave'' of up to 1 million
    cubic yards if contaminated mill tailings. That is
    unacceptable; they are willing to try to help us with it, and
    we appreciate it.
        Elizabeth Mine is one of only seven sites on the National
    Priorities List that received no funds in fiscal year 2002. Had
    the Administration fully funded the Superfund Program and
    renewed the Superfund fees, the current emergency could likely
    have been avoided.
        I look forward to working with you and your staff to ensure
    that we don't face a similar emergency during next year's
    spring thaw.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Senator Jeffords.
        Now I would like to call on the ranking member of the
    subcommittee, Senator Carper.

     OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. THOMAS R. CARPER, U.S. SENATOR FROM
                         THE STATE OF DELAWARE

        Senator Carper. Mr. Chairman, thank you for holding this
    hearing today.
        I want to welcome Governor Whitman to head up this hearing,
    and all the other witnesses. We are glad you are with us on
    this important issue.
        I want to thank our chairman for holding this hearing
    today. He has had a full day of providing leadership on
    hearings. This one is important and near and dear to his heart,
    and this one is certainly near and dear to mine.
        To follow up on what Senator Jeffords said, I think there
    is room for an alternative here. There is room for a third way,
    and my hope is that we can work really hard on both sides of
    the aisle with the Administration to find the third way, which
    would include 4-P. We will see how it unfolds.
        I think this is going to be the beginning of a productive
    discussion on how we can address our shared goals of continued
    progress toward cleaner air. Power plants are just one element
    of that effort, and what we do to address them will set a model
    for the debate on other sources of pollution, such as cars, as
    well as debate in other countries, including India and China,
    who are watching our efforts closely.
        I expect that today we will hear debated questions about
    the levels of pollution reductions and deadlines established in
    the various bills. I will make it clear that I believe that the
    Clear Skies bill just doesn't go far enough. It doesn't go fast
    enough to be considered a truly serious effort.
        On the other hand, we need to be sure that we here in this
    committee--and here in the Senate, and here in the Congress--
    don't set standards that are so tight or so fast that they are
    unacheivable by any significant portion of the industry. Along
    with Senators Judd Gregg and Lincoln Chafee, I have developed a
    4-P proposal, a Clean Air Planning Act that we should consider,
    as I said earlier, a middle-ground-approach, a centrist
    approach, and we are going to be introducing it tomorrow.
        Today's hearing, though is about the President's plan. I am
    not going to try to steal any spotlight--I'm tempted to, but
    I'm not going to try to steal any spotlight to describe our
    bipartisan alternative. However, I am convinced that the
    results that would occur if Clear Skies were to pass would be a
    step backward from our current laws and would ultimately lead
    to higher costs for all of us because of unnecessary delays. I
    am also convinced that we can do better, and that's why we have
    developed our approach. I believe it is decompromise.
        A critical issue is how a multipollutant proposal, whether
    it is 3 or 4, will impact the diversity of fuel used to
    generate electricity in this country. Today, a bit more than 52
    percent of our electricity is generated by coal; approximately
    16 percent from natural gas; roughly 22 percent from nuclear,
    with the remainder from hydropower or renewables. Twenty years
    from now, I believe we an--and I believe we should--have a
    similarly diverse fuel supply. We could achieve such a diverse
    position and still address CO2. We can have a 4-P
    bill, such as our Clean Air Planning Act, and still enjoy the
    benefits that our domestic coal supply offers.
        Analysis that I have seen suggests that the Clean Air
    Planning Act would result in a similar generation of fuel mix
    by 2020, with only a slightly larger shift to natural gas from
    coal, maybe 3 percent, under our Clean Air Planning Act, when
    compared to Clear Skies in 2020. And this is with controls on
    carbon, and timelines are 5 years sooner than those proposed by
    the Administration.
        Well, this is an important debate, as we all know. I
    suggest that we agree, maybe from the outset, on four
    principles to help guide our debate, and here they are.
        No. 1, 4 is better than 3. A comprehensive 4 emissions
    strategy that includes carbon reductions will provide
    regulatory certainty and offer the greatest environmental and
    economic benefits.
        No. 2, markets do work. Cap and trade-based emission
    standards provide the maximum incentive to achieve cleaner
    power.
        No. 3, stairs are better than cliffs. Prompt but gradual
    reductions through multiphase or declining caps are more
    desireable than single-phased cuts.
        And No. 4, eliminate redundancy only when emission
    reductions are secured. Existing regulatory programs, such as
    New Source Review, will need some modernization on my view in
    light of tight emission caps that we should put in place.
        Thanks, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Senator Thomas?

     OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. CRAIG THOMAS, U.S. SENATOR FROM THE
                            STATE OF WYOMING

        Senator Thomas. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        I will try to be fairly brief, Administrator, so that you
    will get a chance, perhaps, to talk.
        The issue of clean air is of great importance to all of us,
    of course, and I am very grateful for the proposal that you
    have brought forth, and the Administration. I think it is a
    move in the right direction.
        I want to talk a little bit about the fact that it affects
    us differently in different parts of the country. I spent this
    morning on the Energy Committee, talking about an energy
    policy; and all of these things kind of go together, as a
    matter of fact. Wyoming has some of the cleanest air and the
    world's most vast resources of coal and natural gas, as well as
    other resources; as you know, the quality issues differ in the
    west than they do in the east. In part because of our abundance
    of low-sulfur coal, we don't have acid rain. We don't have
    ozone nonattainment areas due to power plants. We don't have
    fine particle problems. We do have an issue with visibility.
    This has been addressed on a regionwide basis through the WRAP
    program, which puts in place a program to reduce SO2
    emissions over the next 15 years. I am pleased that Clear Skies
    embraces the WRAP program for the west.
        I am also pleased that the Administration endorses a
    separate western NOx program so that costly controls that may
    be necessary to address health risks of ozone nonattainment in
    the east are not mandated in the west.
        I wanted to discuss how to address the additions of
    Oklahoma and Kansas to the western NOx zone. When the change
    was made in the Clear Skies legislation this year,a the NOx
    allowances for Kansas and Oklahoma were left in the east. This
    action has produced an unfair situation for us in the west, and
    I think we need to correct the map.
        The west also has a difference from the east and the
    midwest with respect to mercury. The mercury emitted from sub-
    bituminous coal and lignite that we burn in the west is quite
    small in volume and different in form than the mercury
    emissions produced when eastern bituminous coal is burned.
    Western mercury emissions aren't typically captured in
    scrubbers, so there is little ``co-benefit'' in reducing
    emissions of mercury by installing scrubbers for
    SO2. We must determine how Clear Skies can
    accommodate the unique circumstances associated with mercury
    emissions from western coal.
        It is my understanding that EPA modeling projects that
    power plants will reduce mercury emissions by switching from
    sub-bituminous coal to bituminous coal. I am deeply concerned
    about that as a dramatic change, and don't believe it is in the
    best interest of energy and environmental policies.
        Currently, generation of electricity from coal represents
    more than 50 percent, as we have heard. Making massive changes
    in the regulatory structure would have a devastating impact on
    the Nation's reliable energy. Also, major fuel switching to
    natural gas has occurred, and experts agree that we will have a
    shortage.
        I think we have to look at the big picture where we do what
    we have to, and be realistic about where we can be in the next
    20 years.
        So thank you for being here, and I look forward to working
    with you.
        [The prepared statement of Senator Thomas follows:]

     Statement of Hon. Craig Thomas, U.S. Senator from the State of Wyoming

        Mr. Chairman, thank you for holding this hearing today on the Clear
    Skies proposal. The issue of clean air is of great importance to the
    entire nation, but particularly to the West and my State of Wyoming
    where we have some the nation's cleanest air and world-class reserves
    of coal and natural gas, as well as wind resources. As you know, air
    quality issues are different in the West than they are in the East. In
    part, because of our abundance of low-sulfur coal, we don't have acid
    rain. We don't have ozone non-attainment areas due to power plants
    (Southern California and Phoenix have a problem due to mobile sources).
    And, we don't have fine particle problems.
        We do, however, have an issue with visibility, and we have
    addressed that on a region-wide basis through the Western Regional Air
    Partnership (WRAP), which has put in place a program to reduce
    SO2 emissions over the next 15 years. I was pleased to see
    the Clear Skies Act embraces the WRAP program for SO2 in the
    West. I am also pleased that the Administration endorses a separate
    Western NOx program, so that costly controls that may be necessary to
    address health risks of ozone nonattainment in the East are not
    mandated in the West.
        On that note, I wanted to discuss how to address the additions of
    Oklahoma and Kansas to the Western NOx zone.. When the change was made
    in the Clear Skies legislation this year, the NOx allowances for Kansas
    and Oklahoma were left in the East. This action has produced an unfair
    situation for us in the West.
        In addition to being different with respect to SO2 and
    NOx, the West also is different from the East and Midwest with respect
    to mercury. The mercury emitted from sub-bituminous coal and the
    lignite that we burn in the West is quite small in volume, and
    different in form from the mercury emissions produced when Eastern
    bituminous coal is burned. Western mercury emissions aren't typically
    captured in scrubbers, so there is little ``co-benefit'' in reduced
    emissions of mercury from installing scrubbers to reduce
    SO2. We must determine how Clear Skies can accommodate the
    unique circumstances associated with mercury emissions from Western
    coal.
        It is my understanding that EPA modeling now confirms that reducing
    mercury emissions from the 48 tons or so that the Nation emits today,
    to 26 tons in 2010, will require far more than application of controls
    to meet SO2 and NOx requirements. Instead, EPA modeling
    projects that power plants will reduce mercury emissions by switching
    from sub-bituminous coal to bituminous coal.
        I am deeply concerned about this dramatic change and do not believe
    this is in the best interest of our energy and environmental policies.
    Currently, generation of electricity from coal represents more than 50
    percent. Making massive shifts in our regulatory structure could have
    devastating impacts on our nation's most reliable energy source.
    Already, major fuel switching to natural gas has occurred and experts
    agree that we will have a shortage. I think we must look at the big
    picture and look at where we want to be, and realistically where we can
    be, in 20 years.
        Thank you and I welcome the witnesses and the Administrator's
    comments on these issues.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Cornyn?
        Senator Cornyn. Mr. Chairman, in the interests of time and
    getting to the questions, I will yield my time.
        Senator Voinovich. I just want to note that at the
    beginning, Administrator Whitman will take one question from
    the chairman and one from Senator Carper, and after that she is
    going to leave and Assistant Administrator Holmstead will
    remain to answer any other questions that the subcommittee has.
        We are very happy to have you here with us. Thank you for
    serving our country.

    STATEMENT OF HON. CHRISTINE TODD WHITMAN, ADMINISTRATOR, UNITED
    STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY ACCOMPANIED BY: JEFFREY
       HOLMSTEAD, ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR AIR AND RADIATION,
                    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

        Administrator Whitman. Members of the committee, I am very
    happy to be here at what is the beginning, I believe, of an
    extraordinarily important process to address the President's
    Clear Skies Act of 2003, legislation that will provide cleaner
    air for all Americans. I do hope that this is the beginning of
    the process that will enable us to see a 3-pollutant bill
    enacted this year.
        Since the Clean Air Act was enacted in 1970, we've gone a
    long way in reversing the environmental damage that decades of
    unchecked pollution had inflicted on our environment. In that
    timeframe, as you have heard several times, we have reduced
    emissions of six key pollutants by 25 percent, while in fact
    our economy has grown by 160 percent.
        While laudable, there is still more that needs to be done.
    Children suffer from asthma at alarmingly high rates. Many of
    our National Parks are shrouded in a murky haze, and our
    environment continues to endure damage from poor air quality,
    even as we have continued to vigorously enforce the Clean Air
    Act.
        To address this situation, President Bush has proposed
    Clear Skies, the most significant improvement to the Clean Air
    Act in over a decade, and the most important emission
    reductions proposed by any President for the electric utility
    sector. Clear Skies is a powerful new tool for the next
    generation of air quality, building on the success of the Clean
    Air Act, while recognizing its original command and control
    methodology might not be the most efficient way to continue to
    improve our air. Indeed, it is important to note that Clear
    Skies is based on the most successful program in over a decade
    to address air quality, the Acid Rain Trading Program, which
    was created in 1990 as part of the amendments to the Clean Air
    Act. The Acid Rain Program had its genesis in the innovative
    idea that harnessing the power of the market could reap
    impressive environmental gains. By utilizing this pioneering
    cap and trade strategy, the Acid Rain Program has achieved
    nearly universal compliance and has cost far less to implement
    than traditional regulatory approaches, and has already reduced
    emissions levels to lower than those that were projected when
    the Act was passed.
        Far from providing a regulatory escape for old power
    plants, Clear Skies is aimed directly at the previously
    grandfathered plants. It would result in almost all facilities
    of over 300 megawatts--and many smaller ones, as well--taking
    action onsite, something that we have not been able to achieve
    under the Clean Air Act to date.
        Said another way, when Clear Skies is fully implemented, 85
    percent of the coal-generated power will be from facilities
    that will have advanced pollution control technology in both
    the east and the west. Clear Skies will set a uniform objective
    standard for mandatory reductions of 70 percent from 2000
    levels of the three most dangerous air pollutants emitted by
    the power utility: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and mercury.
        Although it sets the goals, Clear Skies does not regulate
    the path to meeting those goals. This flexibility enables
    States and facilities to pursue the most cost-effective
    approach to cleaning the air, and helps ensure our ability as a
    Nation to respond quickly and efficiently to changes in the
    energy marketplace. By moving away from simple command and
    control toward a more market-based approach, we will remove 35
    million more tons of SOx, NOx and mercury from the air over the
    first 10 years of the Clear Skies Act than what the current
    Clean Air Act would achieve in the same timeframe.
        While the Clean Air Act enables EPA to regulate these three
    pollutants through the rulemaking process, unlike Clear Skies,
    there is no mandatory cap and no guarantees that emissions will
    reach those lower beneficial levels set by Clear Skies.
        When fully implemented, Clear Skies would result in $96
    billion in environmental and health benefits each year,
    benefits that include virtually eliminating the chronic acidity
    in northeastern lakes; improving visibility in our National
    Parks; avoiding 12,000 premature deaths; and preventing 15
    million fewer days when sufferers of respiratory illnesses are
    unable to carry out their normal daily activities because of
    poor air quality, according to our analysis last year.
        Clear Skies is not a change in direction, but a course
    adjustment. While our goal of cleaner air remains fixed, we
    believe that over 30 years of experience and the lessons that
    we have learned from addressing air pollution should be
    reflected as we move forward. Our environment isn't static. Our
    efforts to improve it shouldn't be static, either.
        With or without Clear Skies, there are hundreds of counties
    all across America that will have to meet the Clean Air Act
    fine particulate and ozone standards. Either we move forward
    with clear legislative guidance, or face the uncertainty of
    regulation, rulemaking, and litigation. We believe that Clear
    Skies is the far preferable path.
        In the President's State of the Union address, he stated
    that Clear Skies was one of his top domestic priorities, and I
    can attest to that fact. Every time that I have met with him
    subsequent to that, as recently as a few weeks ago, he has
    asked me about the status of this legislation.
        With strong backing from the President, the time to enact
    this legislation is now. From improving our air to increasing
    energy security to protecting human health, Clear Skies is a
    clear win for the American people. In the coming months I look
    forward to working with you to pass this legislation and begin
    reaping the environmental and health benefits that it will
    secure.
        I thank you again for the opportunity to appear, and would
    be happy to answer questions in the time allotted.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you very much for your testimony.
        One of the things I would like to see if your EPA could
    produce would be a list of the lawsuits on both sides of the
    Clean Air Act, and how they have impacted on moving to improve
    air and public health, and utilities unwillingness to move
    forward with improvements to make their facilities more
    efficient and to provide more reasonable energy.
        Administrator Whitman. We can certainly provide that.
        Senator Voinovich. I think one of the issues here is that
    the current law has really tied us up in a cobweb of litigation
    that is not really making any improvement in the public health
    of this country or improving our air quality. We are nibbling
    away at it. There are critics that say that Clear Skies is not
    as environmentally protective as future Clean Air requirements
    would be, and that in fact it would roll back the Clean Air
    Act--as one of the Senators said, put us in a ``Rip Van
    Winkle'' environment.
        It seems to me that one of the major advantages of Clear
    Skies is that it provides both regulatory and environmental
    certainty; that is, the fact that significant emissions are
    locked into statutory deadlines that cannot be circumvented or
    delayed the way that most requirements are now being delayed.
        I would like you to comment on that allegation, that Clear
    Skies would roll back the current Clean Air Act.
        Administrator Whitman. Well, obviously, Senator, we don't
    agree with that. As you stated, putting a mandatory cap on the
    three emissions, making it clear what is to be expected, and
    requiring a 70 percent reduction from 2000 levels are very
    significant movements forward, we believe, and great
    improvements to the Act.
        You see there a chart that will tell you what we expect to
    get in emissions reductions from the Clean Air Act as it
    currently exists, and what we expect under Clear Skies. You
    will notice that in some of those columns there is--well, first
    of all you will notice that the numbers show a dramatic
    reduction, but you will also notice that there is a blank there
    for mercury, because we have not yet set a mercury standard.
    That process is in progress. We have it scheduled to be
    proposed before December of this year. It will be final in 2004
    and become enforceable in 2007 or 2008, and that is without
    litigation. We know that everything we do gets litigated. One
    of the big benefits of having Congress act with mandatory
    levels is that when Congress acts, people listen, and they
    start to respond. When EPA acts, they go to court. And that
    means that we spend a lot of time in litigation, as you pointed
    out.
        Now, we are proud of the results that we have achieved on
    the individual cases that we brought, but they are incremental.
    As you point out, Senator, it's more of a ``nibbling away.'' By
    providing certainty with a cap and trade proposal with the
    steep 70 percent reductions that the President is calling for,
    Clear Skies will, as our modeling has shown, give us a 35-
    million-ton greater reduction in those three pollutants over
    the next 10 years than we can get moving forward under the
    Clean Air Act as it now exists. And that is with the vigorous
    enforcement of New Source Review as one of the tools.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. Governor Whitman, as I mentioned earlier in
    my testimony, I mentioned that Senators Chafee and Gregg will
    be joining me tomorrow as we introduce our 4-pollutant bill,
    which is similar but not identical to legislation that some of
    us introduced last October, S. 3135.
        My question of you is this. Has EPA conducted, to your
    knowledge, formal economic and environmental analysis of the
    legislation that we introduced last October, S. 3135?
        Administrator Whitman. Senator, I am not sure of the status
    of that, but I can certainly find out for you.
        Senator Carper. If you could. If you could do that, I would
    appreciate it. If you would be willing to share that analysis
    with us, I would welcome that very much.
        My other question would be, would EPA anticipate conducting
    an environmental and economic analysis on our new legislation
    that we will be submitting tomorrow, introducing tomorrow?
        Administrator Whitman. We would be happy to work with you
    on that, Senator.
        Senator Carper. Those are my questions, Mr. Chairman. Thank
    you.
        Administrator Whitman. Senator, I understand--looking at
    the time, there are a few more minutes left here, and I would
    be happy to do some quick answer----
        Senator Voinovich. That would be wonderful. Thank you very
    much.
        Senator Jeffords?
        Senator Jeffords. At the budget hearing you said that there
    is a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and global
    warming, from an EPA and EIA project that these emissions by
    power plants will grow by leaps and bounds over the course of
    Clear Skies. Why shouldn't this legislation guarantee real
    greenhouse gas reductions from this sector?
        Administrator Whitman. Well, Senator, as you may know, this
    Administration has undertaken a number of different programs
    directed at greenhouse gases. And as you point out, it is more
    than just carbon; there are six of them.
        First of all, as far as Clear Skies is concerned, Clear
    Skies is directed at improving and enhancing the progress that
    has already been made under the Clean Air Act, and as has
    already been stated, carbon is not a regulated pollutant under
    that act. So Clear Skies is directed at the three most
    egregious emissions from the power plants that we feel can be
    addressed now, and we want to enhance those benefits and get at
    them quickly in a way that makes sense for that sector.
        But we have a number of programs right now that are
    underway. We also have as an extraordinary commitment from the
    Administration on research on global climate change--if we get
    energy bill incentives--that includes programs to encourage
    people to use alternate technology and to improve alternatives
    to the standard energy sources that we use. That means that we
    encourage more conservation and more renewable resources. We
    believe that we will make significant progress toward the
    President's goal of an 18 percent reduction in greenhouse gas
    intensity over the next 10 years.
        Senator Jeffords. The present law and our bill put a lot of
    emphasis on reducing the number of premature deaths. Is the
    principal purpose of Clear Skies to reduce the number of
    premature deaths from power plant pollution?
        Administrator Whitman. That is certainly an enhancement of
    it. It is not the only reason to enact Clear Skies. We also
    look at the other environmental benefits that go along with it,
    and the reduction of other health concerns, such as asthma and
    bronchitis, from bad air quality.
        Senator Jeffords. But it's not the principal purpose. All
    right.
        According to the modeling, the agency's straw proposal
    would save 7,000 more lives annually than Clear Skies, and
    achieve $60 billion more benefits in avoided health damages per
    year, at an incremental cost of only $3.5 billion per year in
    2020.
        Why are Clear Skies's weaker requirements and slower
    deadlines better than the emissions reductions in the straw
    proposal for public health?
        Administrator Whitman. Well, Senator, the straw proposal
    was just that. It was our first cut, and it was a straw. On
    further analysis of that straw proposal the agency determined
    that many of the targets there were not feasible, neither
    timewise nor at levels that had been projected. That was the
    first go-round, and as we looked at the technical capabilities
    that exist in reaching some of those numbers, and also looking
    at the economic dislocation, the impact it would have, and the
    overall feasibility of achieving those goals, we determined
    that those were not the best way to approach this.
        Senator Jeffords. I would be willing to defer my other
    questions to Mr. Holmstead----
        Administrator Whitman. You can get all the really technical
    answers from him. He knows what he's talking about.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Jeffords. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Thomas?
        Senator Thomas. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        I am told, and your EPA modeling now confirms, that
    reducing mercury emissions significantly will require more than
    application of controls on SO2 and NOx requirements.
    Instead, I understand, EPA's modeling projects that power
    plants will reduce mercury emissions by a significant amount by
    switching from sub-bituminous to bituminous coal.
        If so, what kind of an impact do you think that would have
    on the costs and environment and economic and energy policy in
    the west?
        Administrator Whitman. Senator, first of all, we do believe
    that in Phase 1 of the Clear Skies Act that the vast majority
    of the mercury goal can be attained through co-benefits. The
    last few tons may require something more than just a co-
    benefit, moret than just an enhancement of existing SOx and NOx
    technology, tweaking that technology a little bit further to
    capture more mercury with a cap than without, or maybe some
    other actions, but we do not believe that what will be left out
    there for Phase 1 is going to require a large investment from
    the utilities. Our modeling doesn't show that.
        Without a mercury cap, I don't think there is any incentive
    to reduce mercury emissions. We have taken into account, as we
    developed Clear Skies, the difference in the type of coal--
    lignite coal versus other coals. We recognize that as we set at
    the credits that utilities get for reducing mercury, reducing
    emissions from the lignite coal. We believe we are reflective
    and balanced, understanding that we still need to achieve the
    goals for air quality. We recognize the different types of coal
    and the technology available to address the mercury in
    different types of coal varies, and the expense of doing that
    varies terrifically, as well. So we have tried to anticipate
    that in the legislation.
        Senator Thomas. As you know, we are also working on an
    energy policy, and bituminous coal is one of the longer-term
    resources that we have available, and it seems to me that all
    those things have to be taken into account.
        So I hope----
        Administrator Whitman. Clear Skies anticipates a 10 percent
    increase in coal as a power source overall. In the course of
    Clear Skies, coal use will grow in both the east and the west.
    It may not grow as fast in the west as it would without any
    kind of a mercury cap, but it will still continue to grow.
        Senator Thomas. Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Cornyn?
        Senator Cornyn. Thank you.
        Governor Whitman, you and I have discussed--my colleague
    was talking about bituminous coal, and I want to talk to you a
    little bit about lignite, which you mentioned.
        I am concerned, as I know you are, about fuel diversity.
    Much of the electricity generated in Texas, about 40 percent,
    is produced by coal-fired power plants. Under Clear Skies, EPA
    estimates that figure will drop down to 25 percent in 2020,
    which is a significant decrease. This is of particular interest
    to me because some of the plants in Texas, of course, are using
    locally mined lignite coal, a practice that is a win-win
    situation because it creates jobs, cuts down transportation
    costs.
        My question is this. Does EPA have any figures on whether,
    in Texas, the declining coal used under Clear Skies would be
    native lignite--that is, Texas coal--or coal that was imported
    from out of State?
        Administrator Whitman. I'm sure we could get that for you,
    Senator. I don't know that answer off the top of my head.
        Senator Cornyn. OK, if you would, please.
        Just one quick follow-up, and if you would like to supply
    the answer to us later, that would be fine.
        Does EPA have any figures on the decline in coal-mining
    jobs in Texas that accompanies this significant decline in
    percentage of coal-fired generation?
        Administrator Whitman. Again, I don't, but in fact your
    next--do you have an answer to that?
        OK, we both of us have to find that. I was hoping that the
    Assistant Administrator would be able to answer it right now.
    We will have to get you that.
        Senator Thomas. We'll be glad to send coal down from
    Wyoming, of course.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Cornyn. Thank you, Mr. Chairman
        Senator Voinovich. I thank you, Administrator Whitman. We
    really appreciate your being here today.
        Administrator Whitman. Thank you very much. Thank you for
    this hearing, again. We appreciate it.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Holmstead, do you want to sit in the
    warm chair?
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Voinovich. As I mentioned in my opening remarks,
    the threat of fuel-switching--utilities switching from coal-
    based generation to natural gas generation--is a major concern
    that must be addressed. In other words, if I look at everything
    that is being suggested, the one thing that I try to really pay
    attention to is, how far do you take us to the point where
    utilities say, ``Chuck it, we're going to go to the use of
    natural gas''? And to me, that's very, very bad because that
    then--that cost will be passed on to all their customers, and
    then I believe that would have a devastating impact on our
    economy.
        What effect will Clear Skies have on this in terms of fuel-
    switching? Do you think it will cause more utilities to fuel-
    switch?
        Mr. Holmstead. This is an issue that both we and other
    parts of the Federal Government have looked at pretty closely,
    for the very reasons that you suggest. As a matter of energy
    policy, we think it would be a mistake to become overly
    dependent on natural gas, so we have looked at this issue very
    carefully. I know, for instance, that EIA has looked at this
    issue very carefully. And all of our analysis shows that even
    with the stringent caps in Clear Skies, that the way the
    industry will meet those caps is by installing control
    technology on coal-fired plants and not by switching to natural
    gas.
        So we see essentially no impact on future demand for
    natural gas in the utility sector. I think when we compare a
    scenario that has us not taking any other action, the so-called
    ``Rip Van Winkle'' scenario, to Clear Skies, as far as 2020, I
    think the increase in natural gas usage for power generation is
    about 2 percent. But we all know that the ``Rip Van Winkle''
    scenario can't be the case under the current Clean Air Act. So
    we think that under Clear Skies you will actually get less
    fuel-switching than you would get under the current Clean Air
    Act.
        As I think you know, Mr. Chairman, one of the things that
    we tried to do here--and I know that Senator Carper and others
    are looking at the same type of issue--is to give the industry
    certainty and longer timeframes to plan out their investments,
    so that they can actually raise the capital and plan out their
    investments and preserve coal use. But when you have shorter
    time periods, which you sometimes do from the time a regulation
    is passed until it is implemented, it actually tends to
    encourage more fuel-switching than you would get under a
    multipollutant scenario.
        So the bottom line is that by using this more efficient,
    more certain tool, we avoid the need for any fuel switching in
    the power industry.
        Senator Voinovich. Is this philosophy of Clear Skies based
    on what we have had pretty much with the acid rain provisions
    of the Clean Air Act? I mean, there has been so much
    controversy about that, but it is my understanding that that
    has been fairly successful in moving forward and getting steady
    improvement.
        Mr. Holmstead. Well, I think this is the best indication of
    its success. Wherever I go now I run into someone who claims to
    have invented Title IV, Acid Rain Program, which I think is an
    indication of how well it has worked. Back in 1990--and by the
    way, it was actually my idea----
        [Laughter.]
        Mr. Holmstead.--the Acid Rain Program was highly
    controversial back in 1990, and there was a lot of skepticism
    over whether it would prove to be effective. But President
    Bush, the first President Bush, made that really the
    centerpiece of his Clean Air Act reforms, with support from
    people in this room today.
        What that has shown is that when you use a market-based
    program--and I believe I can quote Senator Carper, when he says
    that ``markets do work''--and you give people an economic
    incentive to over-control and to find good ways to reduce their
    pollution, you can actually achieve greater gains quicker than
    you otherwise would.
        So back in 1990, I think EPA projected that the cost of the
    Acid Rain Program would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $6
    billion to $7 billion. The industry said it would be more than
    that. Now we know, 10 or 12 or 13 years later, that in fact the
    annual cost isn't $6 billion to $10 billion; it's more like $1
    billion to $2 billion. It has substantially reduced pollution.
    It has done it in a way that we've never had to bring any
    enforcement actions because it is completely self-implementing.
    So I think it has really been, by everyone's measure, one of
    the most successful programs under the Clean Air Act. And the
    Clear Skies approach is really designed to build on that,
    simply to extend that to the two other pollutants and
    substantially lower the cap for SO2.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Mr. Holmstead, welcome. It is good to see you again, and
    thank you for your testimony today and your response to my
    questions. Thank you for quoting me, and don't forget that
    first principle, too----
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Carper. [continuing] . . . and as I've said now and
    then, you're welcome to do that.
        Let me say, as I said earlier, I think we can have a 4-P
    rule, such as the Clean Air Planning Act that we are
    introducing tomorrow, and still enjoy the benefits that our
    domestic coal supply offers. I say that as the only native West
    Virginian in the U.S. Senate. An analysis that I have seen
    suggests that the Clean Air Planning Act would result in a
    similar generation fuel mix by 2020; I alluded to that during
    my earlier statement. But just a slightly larger shift, maybe 3
    percent, to natural gas from coal, under legislation that we
    will be introducing, as compared to Clear Skies in 2020.
        With that in mind, any idea why the President is offering a
    bill that does not include CO2, while at the same
    time addressing SOx, NOx, and mercury?
        Mr. Holmstead. I think Governor Whitman--as she said, the
    Administration has determined that there are really better ways
    of addressing the CO2 issue and global warming in
    general. As you well know, CO2 is one of six gases
    that is believed to contribute--possibly contribute--to global
    climate change. CO2 and all of these other gases
    come from many different sectors of the economy, and it is
    really a global problem.
        On the other hand, the issues that we are trying to deal
    with in the Clear Skies Act have to do fundamentally with the
    power sector. The power sector is responsible for about 65
    percent of total SO2 emissions in the United States,
    responsible for somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 percent of
    the NOx, and I think more than 25 percent of the mercury.
    Pollutants which are having immediate and direct health
    impacts. So we just think that that sort of regulatory approach
    is appropriate for the three pollutants, but that approach
    under the Clean Air Act just isn't well-suited for dealing with
    CO2. As the Governor mentioned, we have a number of
    other programs that are proving to be successful, although some
    of them are only starting out, for dealing with the issue of
    CO2 emissions.
        Senator Carper. Any idea what percentage of CO2
    is produced in this country by our electric utilities?
        Mr. Holmstead. I know it's a significant percentage. I
    don't have that number at my fingertips, but we could certainly
    provide it to you.
        Senator Carper. I understand it's a bit more than a third.
        All right. One second question, if I could. A group of
    companies called the ``Clean Energy Group''--and I think some
    of them actually have representatives present in this room--I
    understand they ran an analysis of the legislation that Senator
    Chafee and I and others introduced last fall, and in that
    analysis they considered the cost of our bill as introduced,
    and then they considered our bill as if it were a 3-P bill, the
    same dates and levels as our bill but without any kind of
    carbon control. And what they found--this, to me, was amazing--
    they found that by adding CO2 to the other 3 Ps they
    would increase the total system cost of compliance by just
    about 1.5 percent.
        My question is this. If we can get the benefit of carbon
    controls for less than 2 percent in additional compliance
    costs--that's actually within the margin of error on most
    models--why is the Administration not addressing carbon?
        Mr. Holmstead. I guess what I would have to say is that I
    haven't seen that analysis. I suppose that could be correct,
    although the numbers that I've seen in terms of cost for
    CO2 suggest that it could be more than that. But I
    think the real answer is, we believe it is important to look at
    CO2 in its proper context. To the extent that we
    need to address CO2 and other greenhouse gases, the
    fact that we may make some modest reduction from one sector of
    the U.S. economy is probably not very relevant, and we think it
    would be much more efficient to focus on improvements in
    technology. I know, being a native of West Virginia, you must
    be aware of the President's proposal on FutureGen, which is $1
    billion to try to develop a power plant working with other
    partners a power plant that would have zero emissions of
    CO2 and zero emissions of pollutants. We think it is
    important to focus our efforts on those sorts of things that
    really can resolve the issue in the longer term instead of
    looking at shorter-term things.
        And I think my personal perspective is, I would hate to
    have us lose the benefits of very substantial reductions in
    these other pollutants that are having immediate health
    consequences, as we continue to take a much longer time to try
    to develop an elusive consensus on CO2.
        Senator Carper. Mr. Chairman, my time has expired.
        Let me just say, as I relinquish this microphone, that I
    find it of more than just passing interest, that we could add a
    fourth P to the Administration's proposal and not have a very
    substantial impact on the fuel mix, coal or natural gas,
    between what it is today and what it might be in the year 2020,
    and I think that's relevant to this debate.
        The other thing that I described as amazing, that is
    surprising to me, that we can add a fourth P to a 3-P proposal,
    so that we are comparing apples with apples, and do so while
    adding less than 2 percent to the compliance cost. Those aren't
    my numbers; those are the numbers that were produced by a
    consortium of the Clean Energy Group, which includes a number
    of companies and utilities in this country.
        Thank you again.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Cornyn?
        Senator Cornyn. Mr. Chairman, I asked Governor Whitman
    about lignite. My understanding is that lignite coal is not
    only used significantly in Texas, but also in North Dakota,
    Louisiana, and Mississippi.
        My concern has to do with the technology availability to
    reduce mercury--removal levels in lignite coal. I discussed
    this at the earlier budget hearing with Governor Whitman, and
    while I applaud her goals and optimism, I want to make sure
    that for Texas it doesn't represent a big gamble.
        Can you tell me about any commercially available technology
    that is available today for mercury removal from lignite?
        Mr. Holmstead. We understand that the technology known as
    Activated Carbon Injection, or ACI, is designed--and should be
    successful--in removing mercury from lignite.
        Now, your question was, is that commercially available, and
    I think the answer to that is that it's not at this point. We
    don't have full-scale kinds of projects. But that's one of the
    reasons why we are really focused on having an overall cap as
    opposed to plant-by-plant kinds of requirements. One of the
    things that we all learned in 1990 is that as much as we may
    know about what we think are appropriate ways to reduce
    emissions, that the marketplace, left to its own devices, can
    find better ways of doing it. And so by having emission caps,
    first of 26 tons and then 15 tons, it may be that for that
    lignite plant it doesn't make sense to put specific controls on
    that, but another plant could over-control
        So the real issue here is how we get to that overall cap,
    and so we're not as concerned about specific--what can be
    achieved at a specific plant.
        I will say that we recognize that it seems to be more
    expensive to reduce mercury emissions from lignite coal, and we
    have tried to address that in terms of the allowances. So I
    think you are probably aware that we have tried to account--we
    would like to be able to equalize the cost of control across
    the different coal types, and we believe, based on what we've
    seen, that it can be controlled; it's just more expensive to do
    so. So we have taken that into account in the allowance system.
        Senator Cornyn. I appreciate the fact that the bill does
    take into account the particular difficulty with which mercury
    removal from lignite is greater than other types of coal. But
    just to clarify, you are saying that to your knowledge there is
    no currently commercially available technology to remove
    mercury from lignite?
        Mr. Holmstead. I think to be completely correct, I should
    say that there is a commercially available technology. To my
    knowledge it has not been used on a full-scale lignite plant
    yet. I think the vendors are telling people that they will
    guarantee that it can be used, but the folks that do the
    technology reviews believe that's the case.
        But you are correct, we don't at this point have--at least
    as far as I know--a full-scale, full-size plant burning lignite
    that uses ACI technology.
        Senator Cornyn. No demonstration of it----
        Mr. Holmstead. I am sure my staff will correct me, which
    they are fond of doing, but I do think that we have some cases
    where we have plants burning lignite coal that have other
    control systems designed to reduce NOx and SOx, but also
    reducing mercury. So I believe that we have some evidence of
    that, but you are correct that there is much more uncertainty
    about exactly how we would get emission reductions from plants
    burning lignite.
        Senator Cornyn. Are you referring to the North Dakota test?
    My staff advises me, and you can just check this out and get
    back to me----
        Mr. Holmstead. I would be happy to.
        I understand that there is a difference between the lignite
    in North Dakota and the lignite in----
        Senator Cornyn. I just want to make sure that we're
    comparing apples with apples. So I would ask you to provide my
    staff with the test on North Dakota or any other place where
    you have found this to be successful, or claim to be
    successful, so that we can compare that to our situation in
    Texas.
        I yield back for now.
        Senator Voinovich. There being no other questions, you are
    excused, Mr. Holmstead. I know you will be available to the
    committee and staff as we move along to try to mark this bill
    up.
        Mr. Holmstead. Thank you very much for the chance.
        Senator Cornyn. Mr. Chairman, I just have one or two other
    questions I would like to submit in writing, if I may, and get
    responses in writing.
        Senator Voinovich. Let the record show that Senator Cornyn
    will be submitting questions in writing. We are now going to
    ask Mr. Glenn McCullough, chairman of the TVA, to be our next
    witness.
        Mr. McCullough, we are very pleased that you are here today
    to testify on behalf of Public Power. You may proceed with your
    testimony.

    STATEMENT OF GLENN MC CULLOUGH, JR., CHAIRMAN, TENNESSEE VALLEY
                               AUTHORITY

        Mr. McCullough. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and members of the
    Subcommittee.
        On behalf of the TVA Board and our employees, thank you for
    the opportunity to discuss our views on clean air and more
    specifically, the Clear Skies Act of 2003. As both steward of
    the environment and provider of electricity in the Tennessee
    Valley, TVA has a unique perspective on the clean air issues
    facing our region and the Nation. Each day TVA works to find
    the best balance for providing affordable reliable electricity
    to fuel a sustainable and vibrant economy and enhancing
    environmental quality.
        No aspect of that balance is of greater importance than the
    issue you are considering today--clean air. Through 158 local
    utilities and 62 large industrial customers, TVA supplies
    electricity for 8.3 million people across a seven-State region.
    The President's national energy policy recognizes the
    importance of a diverse generating mix for our Nation.
        TVA's power system reflect such diversity. The diversity of
    our system requires a comprehensive commitment to environmental
    stewardship. That commitment is reflected by a record of
    emissions reductions. Since 1977, TVA has reduced sulfur
    dioxide emissions by 76 percent. We plan to invest an
    additional $1.5 billion to build an additional five scrubber
    systems. This action, along with switching to low sulfur coal,
    will reduce SO2 emissions 85 percent from 1977
    levels and when completed will result in scrubbers on more than
    half of our capacity.
        In the past 8 years TVA has reduced nitrogen oxide
    emissions by 50 percent, and in the future we are investing
    more than $1.1 billion to install selective catalytic reduction
    systems or similar technologies on 25 generating units. In
    combination with other controls, the SERs will reduce our NOx
    emissions by 75 percent during the ozone season.
        By 2005, we will have SERs on more than 60 percent of our
    coal-fired capacity. So far TVA has invested more than $3
    billion for clean air improvements, and by 2010 we will have
    invested nearly $5.6 billion.
        As I outlined, we are in the midst of one of the most
    aggressive emission reduction programs in the Nation which
    means that between now and the end of decade, TVA will spend an
    average of nearly $1 million a day to improve air quality. We
    know that emissions from all sources--stationery and mobile--
    must continue to be reduced.
        For that reason, Mr. Chairman, I am here today to endorse
    the Clear Skies Act of 2003. While the current Clean Air Act
    has done much to improve air quality, it contains provisions
    that could threaten reliability and affordability of the
    Nation's electricity supply. Affordable, reliable electricity
    is achieved, in part, by the industry's ability to use a
    diverse number of fuel sources including coal, our Nation's
    most abundant energy source.
        The Tennessee Valley depends on coal for about 60 percent
    of our electricity. Unfortunately, this vital energy resource
    currently faces a complicated web of overlapping, duplicative,
    and unnecessarily costly emission control requirements to
    create enormous uncertainty for future investment.
        For example, there are more than a dozen separate
    regulations for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides alone. At
    times disputes over these regulations have significantly
    delayed the improvement of air quality they were designed to
    achieve. This piecemeal approach should be replaced with a set
    of timetables and reduction targets for sulfur dioxide,
    nitrogen oxide, and mercury.
        We believe that Clear Skies, a well-designed multi-emission
    approach, will continue the national trend of better air
    quality and provide additional benefits. Those benefits include
    a streamlined regulatory process; sustained diversity in the
    Nation's fuel supply; and market-based mechanisms for achieving
    reductions that are fair. They are fair to both public and
    private power providers.
        Clear Skies would give the utility industry the certainty
    it needs to plan and to finance emission reductions without
    unduly driving up prices for consumers. Such results have been
    demonstrated by the very successful Acid Rain Program, as has
    been referenced to today.
        While TVA endorses the reduction targets and timetables in
    Clear Skies, some provisions could be addressed to achieve the
    same environmental benefit and be less burdensome to coal-fired
    generations. Specifically, we urge you to ensure that the
    interim 2010 mercury targets reflect the Administration's
    intent of reducing mercury to levels achievable via a cap-and-
    trade system through the co-benefits provided by sulfur and
    nitrogen control technologies. This would allow utilities that
    have already reduced mercury through sulfur and nitrogen
    technologies to realize credit for previous action.
        In conclusion, Clear Skies is a very aggressive proposal.
    Unlike those advocating for more stringent targets and
    timetables, TVA uniquely knows what is required to achieve
    reductions such as those called for in Clear Skies. As I
    mentioned earlier, TVA will have invested $5.6 billion in
    emission reductions by the end of this decade. Achieving the
    results contemplated by Clear Skies would require TVA to invest
    an additional $4 billion between now and 2018.
        To achieve more on a faster timetable would increase costs
    considerably and place an unrealistic burden on both the
    consumer and the economy for little additional environmental
    benefit. The TVA appreciates the Subcommittee's valuable work
    in shaping a balanced, achievable path to cleaner air for our
    Nation.
        Thank you. I will be happy to respond to any questions you
    may have.
        I would ask that my written statement be placed in the
    record in its entirety.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. McCullough, are you familiar at all
    with the bill that was marked up by this committee last year,
    the Jeffords-Lieberman bill?
        Mr. McCullough. I have not researched that bill, Senator.
        Senator Voinovich. One of the provisions that is contained
    in the bill deals with the issue of greenhouse gases,
    CO2. There has been some debate on whether or not
    CO2 ought to be included in Clear Skies. Preliminary
    to that, I have been doing what I can, working with Senator
    Carper and some other people to see if we cannot find some kind
    of a compromise that will deal with the issue of greenhouse
    gases.
        Mr. McCullough. Yes, sir.
        Senator Voinovich. The question is: If we cap
    CO2, what impact would that have on TVA?
        Mr. McCullough. Mr. Chairman, I would have to know what the
    cap might be. We believe that the President's proposal to
    voluntarily reduce greenhouse gases is responsible, and is one
    that has worked. TVA, over the last decade, has reduced our
    greenhouse gas emission by over 200 million tons. We have done
    that by introducing renewables, by biomass, co-firing our coal
    units, and by other technologies.
        We believe that the Administration's proposal to
    voluntarily call for a reduction in greenhouse gases at this
    point in time with the level of technology still advancing in
    terms of greenhouse gas sequestration and containment, is a
    responsible way to proceed.
        Senator Voinovich. I would like you to run the numbers on
    the bill last year. There will be a number in the bill that I
    am sure Senator Carper introduces. I would just like to get
    your honest opinion about what impact it would have on your
    operation.
        What impact do you think that Clear Skies would have on
    your ability to maintain your diverse fuel mix? You have 60
    percent coal. What is the rest of it?
        Mr. McCullough. Mr. Chairman, that is right. TVA's
    generation mix is about 60 percent goal. Clear Skies is very
    ambitious and very aggressive. Control will be required to
    achieve the reductions in nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide
    that Clear Skies calls for. It provides a 15-year period of
    time so that utilities can prepare to meet these reductions in
    a way that is responsible for the consumer.
        At the same time, we can continue to rely on what is about
    a 300-year most abundant supply of fuel that this Nation has.
    We can continue to implement clean coal technologies that are
    reducing in a really significant way the NOx and sulfur
    emissions. We feel that we can continue to add to the diversity
    in the strength and not reliance of any one single fuel mix of
    renewals, the expansion of safe nuclear, and hydroelectric. We
    believe that all of these diverse generation mixes are the key
    to having energy security and achieving additional reductions
    in emissions.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. Welcome, McCullough. We are delighted to
    have you before us today.
        I understand you may have a common bond with our chairman.
    Have you ever been an elected official?
        Mr. McCullough. Yes, sir.
        Senator Carper. What position did you hold?
        Mr. McCullough. Senator, I was elected mayor of Tupelo,
    Mississippi.
        Senator Carper. Are there any famous people who ever born
    in Tupelo?
        [Laughter.]
        Mr. McCullough. Elvis Presley might come to mind.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, very much.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Carper. He does a great Elvis impersonation. He
    just gave us a little piece of it here. This is the guy who
    started the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame when he was Mayor of
    Cleveland.
        Senator Voinovich. Absolutely.
        Senator Carper. You guys may want to get together and jam
    later.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Carper. I want to follow up on a question of a
    response that was going back and forth between you and our
    chairman. The question I think he was asking was the effect on
    TVA of the enactment of legislation that addresses
    CO2, that addresses carbon. You indicated,
    understandable, that you would have to know what the caps were
    before you would be able to give some indication of how you and
    the folks of TVA would be able to respond and comply.
        The legislation introduced by our colleague, Jim Jeffords,
    who has already gone, if I am not mistaken, his legislation
    says that by 2008, we should have reduced emissions of
    CO2, of carbon, so that the levels are back to those
    that existed in 1990.
        The proposals that I and some others will introduce
    tomorrow have two goals: an interim goal and then a longer-term
    goal. By 2009, we would expect the industry to have levels of
    emissions no greater than what existed in 2005.
        Further, by 2013, we would expect those levels of emissions
    to have been reduced to have existed in 2001. So in 2009 we
    want to be back down to 2005 levels, and in 2013 we want to be
    back down to 2001 levels.
        If you could give us some initial reaction to that, I would
    welcome it. You have an array of proposals here from Senators
    Jeffords' very aggressive approach, to the Administration which
    chooses not to include carbon in their proposal, to what I have
    outlined, the stair step approach.
        What are your thoughts?
        Mr. McCullough. Senator, and Mr. chairman, I will get the
    analysis run. We will certain respond in more detail as to how
    that could affect TVA's system.
        We believe that a reduction in greenhouse gases to an 18
    percent intensity of the U.S. economy by 2012 is responsible
    and very ambitious, and yet an achievable greenhouse gas
    strategy.
        I will be happy to take a look at the caps that are called
    for and do the analysis on our system and get that information
    to you in more detail.
        Senator Carper. You mentioned the 18 percent reduction. I
    think Governor Whitman may have alluded to that as well in her
    own testimony.
        My understanding is that it is not an outright 18 percent
    reduction, but it is an 18 percent slower growth in the level
    of emissions.
        Mr. McCullough. It is my understanding that in 2012, we
    would have a greenhouse gas intensity that would not exceed 18
    percent of the economic activity. The is a range, a ratio, that
    you can measure there.
        Senator Carper. We will have an opportunity to double check
    that. I will double check it and perhaps you could as well. But
    my understanding is that the 18 percent reduction is not a
    reduction overall, but it is a reduction of 18 percent in the
    growth.
        I see some members of the audience nodding their heads. So
    I am thinking maybe there is something to that.
        Mr. McCullough. Yes, sir.
        Senator Carper. This is more of a personal question, but we
    are among friends. Just talk to me about your own personal
    commitment and views on clean air. You have an obligation to
    the folks who work for you and your customers. Talk to me about
    your obligations that you feel to the people who may live in
    the areas that you serve and the rest of us who live downwind.
    Talk to us about SOx and NOx and CO2 from your
    heart.
        Mr. McCullough. Thank you for the question, Senator. TVA
    does have an intense responsibility to ensuring that our air is
    cleaner. As I said, we have invested over $3 billion to date to
    bring down NOx and sulfur dioxide emissions significantly. By
    2005, TVA will reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by 75 percent.
        Senator Carper. By when?
        Mr. McCullough. By 2005.
        Senator Carper. Compared to what?
        Mr. McCullough. Going back to 1997 levels when we started
    this ambitious selected catalytic reduction system strategy. By
    the same year in 2005, we are going to reduce carbon dioxide
    emissions by 85 percent through the employment scrubbers.
        Now, going forward, if Clear Skies were implemented, we
    would have to install SERs on 23 additional units at a cost of
    another $5 billion by 2018.
        Senator Carper. You said $5 billion by 2018?
        Mr. McCullough. Yes, sir.
        Senator Carper. Give me some idea of what your revenues are
    in a year? Do you have any idea what your revenues were last
    year?
        Mr. McCullough. Yes, sir. Our revenues in fiscal year 2002
    were $6.8 billion.
        Senator Carper. So, looking at between now and 2018, we are
    talking about revenues probably close to $200 billion?
        Mr. McCullough. Our revenues are growing at 2 to 3 percent
    per year. I would have to project that out for you.
        Senator Carper. I was just trying to get an understanding
    of what percent of your revenues a $5 billion is suggesting. It
    sounds like it is about 2 or 3 percent.
        Mr. McCullough. We are spending $527 million in this fiscal
    year alone on clean air. That is on a $7 billion budget. We are
    projecting to reduce SOx emissions by 85 percent by 2005.
    Again, we would have to control 40 additional generation units
    if Clear Skies were enacted by the year 2018. This is very
    aggressive.
        Senator Carper. Just out of curiosity. How do you fund
    those investments? How much did you say this year?
        Mr. McCullough. $527 million.
        Senator Carper. How do you fund that?
        Mr. McCullough. Although we are owned by the Federal
    Government, TVA is totally self-financed. We do not rely on any
    appropriated dollars. So all of the funding for clean air, for
    a higher quality of water, for power generation, and
    transmission upgrades to run our system and to reduce our debt,
    comes from the ratepayers of the Tennessee Valley.
        Senator Carper. Do you issue debt?
        Mr. McCullough. Yes, we do issue bonded indebtedness.
        Senator Carper. Will you issue debt in part to pay for
    those kind of investments?
        Mr. McCullough. Yes, this Board is committed to continuing
    to bring our debt down.
        Senator Carper. To quote a native son of Tupelo, ``Thank
    you very much.''
        [Laughter.]
        Mr. McCullough. You are welcome, very much.
        Senator Voinovich. Are you familiar with the Jeffords-
    Lieberman numbers for the 3-Ps--NOx, SOx, and mercury?
        Mr. McCullough. No, sir; I am not.
        Senator Voinovich. I would like to get your reaction to
    what those numbers would do if that legislation had passed. The
    real issue is whether or not it would have caused you to fuel
    switch?
        Mr. McCullough. Mr. Chairman, we would like to do that
    analysis in detail and report back to you.
        Senator Voinovich. Have you ever calculated what impact
    fuel switching to most probably natural gas would have on your
    customers?
        Mr. McCullough. It would result in an increase in cost due
    to the volatility in the price of natural gas. We do rely on
    natural gas for peaking capacity, but primarily our system, as
    I stated, is close to 60 percent coal. We are about 25 percent
    nuclear. We are uprating our nuclear units bringing on line the
    first reactor in the 21st century at Browns Ferry. We are
    modernizing our turbines in 29 of our hydroelectric facilities.
    We are doing renewables. We are doing solar, wind, and land
    fill gas. We rely on natural gas for peaking capacity.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Senator Carper, do you have anything else?
        Senator Carper. I have just one last quick question.
        We had a hearing last week with the Department of Defense.
    We were talking about their interest in being ``excused'' from
    strict compliance with some of our environmental laws when it
    comes to cleaning their environmental hazards and waste sites.
        One of the points that we made to the Department of Defense
    is that while we are not interested in doing anything that
    curtails the readiness and their ability to defend our security
    at home and our interests abroad, we felt that because they are
    a government agency, they had a special obligation to be good
    stewards of our environment. Your authority is not exactly a
    government entity but created by the government and has a
    special standing and I think maybe a special responsibility.
        I was pleased to hear of your interest in looking to
    renewables--wind, solar, and others--as you provide power to
    your customers.
        I would also ask you just keep in mind the special standing
    that you have and the special responsibility that you have with
    respect to our environment and our clean air. I think you have
    that. I just want to reinforce that today.
        Mr. McCullough. Thank you, Senator. We definitely concur
    with that point. I can assure you that we take that
    responsibility very seriously.
        Senator Carper. The last question I would ask is: People
    sometime say to you, ``What do you want to do next in your
    life?'' I always tell them, ``I would like to move to a little
    city--not Cleveland. Just a little city and maybe be their
    mayor.''
        What is it like being mayor of Tupelo?
        Mr. McCullough. It is a wonderful opportunity.
        Senator Carper. My home town is a wonderful city. That was
    a great opportunity. The opportunity to serve at TVA is
    likewise. I was with three mayors from Alabama earlier this
    morning. It is a great accountability to be held accountable
    and to have this opportunity to hear your thoughts and to
    respond.
        Thank you, Mr. McCullough.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you for joining us.
        Mr. McCullough. My pleasure.
        Senator Voinovich. The first witness of our next panel will
    be Mr. Jim Rogers, CEO and President, Cinergy Corporation. Mr.
    Rogers is going to be here on behalf of the Edison Electric
    Institute which represents the major utility companies in the
    United States. This is an Ohio-based utility, Cinergy
    Corporation.
        Mr. Rogers is not only representing them but he is also
    representing the Edison Electric Institute.
        He will be followed by Ken Colburn of the Northeast States
    for coordinated Air Use Management; David Hawkins, Climate
    Center Program Director, Natural Resources Defense Council;
    Eugene Trisko, United Mine Workers of America; and Bernard
    Melewski, Adirondack Council.
        Mr. Rogers, we are very happy to have you here today with
    us. Thank you.

         STATEMENT OF JAMES ROGERS, CEO AND PRESIDENT, CINERGY
        CORPORATION, ON BEHALF OF THE EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE

        Mr. Rogers. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate the
    opportunity to be here today. I want to start by thanking you
    personally for your leadership on this Subcommittee and driving
    these important issues forward because it is critical to entire
    economy to get it right.
        As you said in your opening statement, it is really all
    about harmonizing our energy, environmental, and economic goals
    in this country. I have every hope that with your leadership we
    will get that done.
        While it is your job to harmonize, my job is to translate
    our country's goals and policies into kilowatt hours delivered
    into the homes and businesses of Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. I
    take my stewardship in a very serious way. That is why I have
    been for many years a supporter of multi-emission legislation
    that has ultimately been embodied in the Clear Skies proposal.
        My job is to purchase fuel. We purchase almost $800 million
    a year, or 30 million tons of coal to purchase gas, to build
    power plants, to build scrubbers and SERs to reduce emissions,
    to invest in new technologies.
        Senator Carper, this really goes to your question about
    stewardship, we spent $950 million to reduce emissions. On NOx,
    we spent on $800 million, which is significantly more than many
    projected that it would be because of the compressed time lines
    that occurred. With respect to Clear Skies, we are going to
    spend roughly $1.5 billion.
        My job is to make sure this impact on our customers, our
    investors, and our communities is done in a way that creates a
    value for all of them. My testimony lays out all of the
    specific issues. It urges you to go to work. I am prepared to
    go to work and to spend the $1.5 billion to make further
    emissions reductions.
        I do not think that there is any question that the Clean
    Air Act is broken. I think everybody that is sitting here could
    support that. Just look at the proposals--whether it is Senator
    Jeffords' proposal, or whether it is your proposal, Senator
    Carper, or whether it is Clear Skies--everybody is pointing to
    the fact that it needs to get fixed. There needs to be a sense
    of urgency about getting it fixed. I do not think anybody
    disagrees with that.
        I think the other thing is we need to reach agreement.
    Every day we delay, every day we are in court litigating the
    Clean Air amendments in the Clean Air Act, is a day delayed in
    reducing emissions. I urge you to have a robust debate, but not
    an endless debate. Again, every day you debate is one less day
    we have to reduce emissions.
        The important issues are to maintain coal's position in the
    mix. This is a diversity of fuel issue. We have to get that
    right. We have to keep coal in the mix. Under the current Clean
    Air Act, we are going to become increasingly dependent on gas.
    In my judgment that is not a good thing for this country.
        In the last 3 years we have built 10 years of generating
    capacity in this country, all gas-fired. No time in the history
    of our country have we built so much generation predicated on
    one fuel. What I worry about is where the gas is going to come
    from? Is it going to be new L&G terminals with all the
    environmental issues there and the importation and further
    dependency on the Middle East? Is the gas going to come from
    wilderness areas? Is it going to come from offshore? Is it
    going to come from Alaska?
        These are the questions we need to ask. We have not
    answered those questions in an affirmative way that really
    allows the gas supply to be there. Just this winter in Ohio
    three still plants were shut down because gas prices went so
    high. Heating is a very critical factor to make sure we have
    adequate heating.
        I would urge you to remember back to 1978 when this
    Congress passed the law banning the burning of natural gas to
    generate electricity. It was repealed 6 years later, but the
    fact of the matter is that we think of gas as a premium fuel.
    If we go back to that way of thinking again and looking at the
    supply/demand balance, we may well. If we go back to that way
    of thinking again, where do we turn to meet the demand for
    electricity in this country. The place we turn is to coal where
    we are so dependent today.
        My recommendation to you is to go to work, get it done,
    give us the ability to go to work and continue to reduce
    emissions in the future.
        Thank you very much.
        I would ask that my written statement be placed in the
    record in its entirety.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Our next witness will be Ken Colburn, Executive Director,
    Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management.
        We are glad to have you here today.

    STATEMENT OF KEN COLBURN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, NORTHEAST STATES
                   FOR COORDINATED AIR USE MANAGEMENT

        Mr. Colburn. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My name is Ken
    Colburn. I am Executive Director of NESCAUM, an association of
    air quality agencies of the eight Northeast States. I am
    pleased to fill in for New Jersey Department of Environmental
    Protection Commissioner, Bradley Campbell, who had to leave for
    some appointments with Members of Congress.
        The Northeast States strongly support an integrated multi-
    pollutant approach to reducing power plant emissions, and have
    so testified before you in the past. We applaud the
    Administration and the committee for making such legislation a
    priority in this Congress.
        In the Northeast, where sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide
    emissions from upwind power plants contribute significantly to
    fine particle and ozone pollution, acid rain, and poor
    visibility in our wilderness areas, we have long appreciated
    the need for Federal action.
        Mercury contamination had led to fish consumption
    advisories on our lakes and rivers, creating an urgent need to
    curb the buildup of this persistent neurotoxin in our
    environment. We see the problem of climate change as presenting
    unprecedented challenges for our ecosystems and quality of
    life, but also great economic opportunity for those who develop
    the clean energy technologies of the future.
        For these reasons, the Northeast States have followed with
    keen interest the multi-pollutant initiatives now before
    Congress, including the Administration's ``Clear Skies''
    proposal. In evaluating each, we have asked three core
    questions:
        Is it comprehensive? Does it adequately address public
    health and the environmental challenges we face? Does it ensure
    continued clean air progress, not only at the national level,
    but at the local, State, and regional levels as well.
        Recognizing Clear Skies as a starting point for the
    committee's deliberations, I want to focus my remarks today on
    how Clear Skies can be improved to meet these tests.
        First, emission reductions can and should happen sooner.
    Many areas of the country need to attain new, more stringent
    standards for ozone and fine particles in the next four to 7
    years. Yet, the emissions caps in Clear Skies will not be fully
    implemented until 2018. Delaying these cuts for another 15
    years is a problem for States trying to reach attainment, but
    it is an even bigger problem for individuals experiencing
    serious health concerns.
        Second, we can and should do more to reduce mercury
    emissions. Given the availability of highly effective control
    technologies, and the bioaccumulative threat posed by this
    toxin, we should not depend only on co-benefits from other
    controls. Mercury emissions should be capped at a level around
    half what Clear Skies proposes.
        Third, national multi-pollutant legislation must address
    the intractable problem of transported air pollution, and must
    not weaken or remove the regulatory tools that States rely on
    to improve air quality at the local and State levels. There is
    no guarantee that regional transport concerns will be solved
    under Clear Skies. Yet, States would be unable to secure
    Federal help in addressing transport until after 2012. Even
    then, new hurdles for Federal intervention could make the
    current transport provisions of the Clean Air Act essentially
    unenforceable.
        States support constructive reform of the Clean Air Act
    provided it advances clean air objectives and is strictly tied
    to implementation of new reduction requirements. Clear Skies
    appears to go too far in the direction of regulatory reform,
    however, weakening or even eliminating several provisions of
    the Clean Air Act before its caps even take effect. Several
    such concerns including New Source Review, regulation of non-
    mercury toxins, potential local impacts, and protection of
    States' rights are listed in an attachment to my testimony.
        The bottom line is that it is better for States to have too
    many tools and not need to use them than to have States in a
    Catch-22 position with the responsibility for reaching
    attainment, but without the tools to do so.
        The final issue I want to address is carbon dioxide. It
    belongs in multi-pollutant legislation because without it, the
    market signals and business certainty needed to promote sound
    investment decisions will remain absent. The result will be
    greater climate risk and higher costs for both the industry and
    consumers. The Northeast States feel so strongly about the need
    to act on climate change that they have made State level
    commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Some have
    included carbon in their own aggressive 4-P initiatives.
    Regulation of carbon does not need to be onerous, but carbon
    does need to be ``in.''
        In short, we support multi-pollutant legislation that does
    both more and less than Clear Skies proposes, more (and sooner)
    in terms of pollution reductions, and less in terms of altering
    the Clean Air Act.
        Earlier, the EPA Straw Proposal was mentioned. We urge the
    committee to revisit EPA's Straw Proposal and other current
    legislative initiatives to see about capturing the additional
    benefits I have already enumerated.
        In closing, let me thank you for considering our views.
    Again, we commend the Administration for keeping multi-
    pollutant legislation on its legislative agenda. The Northeast
    States believe that the opportunity for real progress here is
    as great as the need for it. We look forward to playing a
    constructive role in this effort.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        I would ask that my written statement be placed in the
    record in its entirety.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Mr. Hawkins?

    STATEMENT OF DAVID G. HAWKINS, CLIMATE CENTER PROGRAM DIRECTOR,
                   NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL

        Mr. Hawkins. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        I would request that my full statement be placed in the
    record in its entirety.
        On behalf of the National Resources Defense Council, I will
    try to highlight the three major policy failings in the
    Administration proposal. They are: The proposal fails to
    protect public health; it repeals or weakens key safeguards in
    existing law, and that by ignoring carbon dioxide it worsens
    global warming.
        On the first point, public health, the evidence is
    undisputed that power plant pollution contributes to some
    30,000 premature deaths a year in the United States along with
    other damages. The first question you should ask about any
    proposal before us: How good a job does it do in reducing that
    toll of public health damage?
        The first chart to your right shows that the Administration
    proposal does not do an adequate job. It fails to protect
    public health, especially when compared to proposals that were
    sent into the Administration but never came out of the
    Administration. I refer to what was called the ``Straw
    Proposal'' of EPA.
        That was the label on the document. The analyses were not
    straw analyses. They used the same peer-reviewed methods as the
    Administration's proposal, but analyzed a tighter cap. Governor
    Whitman testified that those proposals did not go forward
    because they were determined to be infeasible.
        If EPA determined them to be infeasible, it has not
    published the results of that conclusion. Indeed, the only
    analysis on the Agency's website and the only analysis we have
    seen publicly shows the opposite--that it is feasible, that you
    can achieve these reductions faster.
        I urge the committee to ask these kinds of questions: Is
    there an analysis that shows that the better program is
    infeasible? If so, this committee should see it, especially
    before voting on something that has the results which I will
    display on the next slide.
        Compared to the proposal it rejected, the Administration's
    bill saves $3 billion for the industry, but at a cost of $60
    billion in public health damage to the American public. That is
    an incredibly bad bargain. Before you vote for it, I would hope
    you would want full answers to why that is a justifiable
    outcome.
        These damages do not just occur in 2020, but in fact, they
    occur all the way along between now and 2020 as a result of the
    higher emissions allowed by the Administration proposal,
    compared to the EPA proposal that they rejected. This second
    chart shows that all along the way that the emissions from the
    Administration proposal are significantly higher than the
    emissions under the EPA proposal. Again, a discussion of why
    this better proposal was rejected is what is critical here.
        When you look at the pollutant mercury, you see again
    dramatically higher loadings. This is a snap shot in 2015 of
    the mercury loadings under the Administration's bill compared
    to the EPA proposal which was rejected. As you can see, the
    mercury emission loadings are much higher around the country. I
    want to draw your attention both to the Great Lakes Regions, to
    the Adirondacks regions, as well as to the Mid-Atlantic
    Regions. These are all dramatically higher mercury loadings.
        That mercury, once released to the environment, will stay
    there for decades, if not hundreds of years. That is a
    commitment not just for this generation, but for future
    generations.
        The next slide illustrates the weakening changes to current
    law. The testimony before you, especially from Governor
    Whitman, indicated that it would be better to get these
    pollution reductions through a cap. Well, it is a false choice
    to say that you have to weaken the current law in order to have
    a cap.
        The first President Bush did not do that. A cap was adopted
    by this Congress for sulfur dioxide in 1990. It has produced
    economic benefits. It has produced efficiencies. Not one word
    of the existing law was weakened or repealed as a result. You
    do not need to do it in this legislation, either.
        Finally, since my time is almost at an end, I just want to
    say a few words about global warming. This is a problem that
    will not get easier by ignoring it. The investments made to
    comply with a multi-pollutant bill will be long-term capital
    investments. We need to do something about this problem of
    global warming in making those investments. For business
    certainty we need to do something about this problem to
    preserve the option of stabilizing global warming.
        Carbon dioxide emissions from the electric sector are 40
    percent of U.S. CO2. They have gone up by 26 percent
    since 1990. That is three times the rate of the increase in the
    rest of the economy. They will go up by another 38 percent
    between now and 2025, according to the base case analyses. If
    we do not do something about this, we will dig ourselves a
    deeper hole. We can do something, and we should.
        Thank you very much.
        Senator Carper. Thank you very much.
        Mr. Trisko, welcome.

       STATEMENT OF EUGENE TRISKO, UNITED MINE WORKERS OF AMERICA

        Mr. Trisko. Thank you, Senator. It is my pleasure.
        I am Eugene Trisko. I am an attorney here representing the
    United Mine Workers of America. The UMWA is the labor union
    that represents the Nation's organized coal miners. The Union
    supports additional reductions in SO2, nitrogen
    oxide, and mercury from coal-fired power plants provided that
    the reductions are achieved in a manner that preserves coal
    miners jobs.
        The Union supports the emission tonnage reduction targets
    in the Clear Skies Act and has only a couple of suggested
    changes to the bill. We further believe that the time to act on
    this legislation is now.
        Since 1990, the UMWA has lost thousands of coal mining jobs
    as a consequence of fuel switching in response to the acid rain
    provisions of Title IV. The Union is very sensitive to the
    risks of additional job losses through new clean air
    legislation.
        For this reason, the UMWA appreciates the concerns that the
    Administration has expressed toward its interest in the
    development of the Clear Skies Act, including the provision of
    incentives to encourage the early installation of control
    technologies.
        The UMWA became active in the Clear Skies process in August
    2001 in response to the release of EPA's initial ``Straw Man.''
    The UMWA believes that a single phase approach to reducing
    SO2 emissions can be developed in a manner that
    reduces the risk of fuel switching by encouraging the use of
    available emission control technologies, thereby maximizing the
    co-benefits of mercury reductions.
        The United Mine Workers respectfully request the committee
    to consider limiting Eastern SO2 reductions to a
    control program with a three million ton cap and a reasonable
    final deadline, perhaps similar to the 10-year deadline
    provided by the Title IV Acid Rain Program. This will provide
    larger emission reductions in time to assist States in
    attaining the new PM2.5 standard.
        The Mine Workers agree that differentiating NOx control
    requires between Eastern and Western States makes sense in
    light of OTAG modeling results showing the miner contribution
    of Western NOx emissions to ozone affecting Eastern States.
        The Union also supports the mercury tonnage targets and
    timetables in Clear Skies. This approach will provide time for
    new mercury control technologies to be developed and
    commercially demonstrated.
        On the other hand, the Mine Workers urge elimination of the
    emission auction provisions of the Clear Skies Act. Requiring
    sources both to reduce emissions and to pay for auctioned
    allowances is a form of double taxation. Over time this new
    energy tax would create major disincentives to the use of coal
    reserves in eastern States producing higher sulfur coals.
        The Mine Workers are concerned that efforts to craft new
    clean air legislation should remain focused as the Clear Skies
    Act is on reducing the air pollutants contributing to domestic
    air quality problems.
        Regulating global concentrations of greenhouse gases under
    the Clean Air Act is not feasible. Carbon dioxide, the
    principle greenhouse gas, is not harmful to human health, and
    could not properly be classified as a criteria air pollutant.
    Global greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to increase
    into the foreseeable future, driven by the economic growth of
    developing nations exempt from the Kyoto protocol.
        Moving forward on climate change requires a truly global
    agreement on greenhouse gases that recognizes the common but
    differentiated responsibilities of parties to the Rio Treaty
    with an equitable apportionment of emission limitation targets
    among all parties.
        Mr. Chairman, on October 24, 2001, the presidents of seven
    labor unions conveyed their views on this issue to this
    committee. A copy of their letter is attached to my full
    statement.
        Finally, we need to recognize that State utility
    restructuring efforts and other economic forces have degraded
    the financial health of the electric utility industry. The
    industry is littered with companies in or teetering on the edge
    of bankruptcy. Under these circumstances, UMWA recommends that
    the committee consult with the congressional Research Service
    or the General Accounting Office on the financial implications
    of the Clear Skies Act and other proposed emission controlled
    legislation.
        Both the tonnage reductions and timetables for compliance
    should reflect sound financial and economic assumptions about
    the ability of the industry to comply.
        Thank you.
        I would request that my full statement be placed in the
    record in its entirety.
        Senator Carper. Thank you very much, Mr. Trisko.
        Mr. Melewski. Welcome.

           STATEMENT OF BERNARD MELEWSKI, ADIRONDACK COUNCIL

        Mr. Melewski. Thank you. Good afternoon. My name is Bernard
    Melewski. I am the Counsel and Deputy Director of the
    Adirondack Council. I would like to thank the committee for
    this opportunity to be with you today.
        The Adirondack Council is a private not-for-profit
    organization dedicated to enhancing the natural and human
    communities of the Adirondack Park in New York State. The six-
    million acre Adirondack Park is the largest park of any kind in
    the contiguous Untied States. It is nearly three times the size
    of Yellowstone National Park, and almost half the Adirondack
    Park is publicly owned and protected as forever wild by the New
    York State Constitution since 1895.
        Due to its location and its thin soils, the Adirondack Park
    has suffered the worst environmental damage from acid rain in
    America. Prevailing winds carry power plant emissions from
    outside New York's borders into the Adirondack Mountains where
    they fall as acid precipitation. The acidity alters soil
    chemistry, inhibits plant growth, and releases heavy metals
    that are toxic to plants, animals, and fish. Reports conducted
    by a host of Federal agencies have shown that more than 500 of
    the Park's 2,800 lakes and ponds have become too acidic to
    support their native life.
        Each spring our waters suffer acidic shock for weeks as the
    winter's nitrogen loaded snow pack melts. The Park's high
    elevation spruce and fir trees and its spectacular maples are
    disappearing at an alarming rate. Every report issued in the
    past 10 years reflects these observations and worse and
    predicts continuing damage if more is not done to control power
    plant emissions.
        In 1998 the Adirondack Council was invited by this
    committee to testify about S. 172, the Acid Rain Control Act,
    legislation then proposed by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan.
    We said in 1998 that any new legislation that seeks to bring an
    end to the acid rain problem should, at a minimum, contain two
    provisions. The same holds true today.
        First, build on the successful sulfur dioxide cap-and-trade
    program by creating a third phase of reductions of 50 percent
    or more. Second, create a new year-around cap-and-trade program
    for nitrogen oxides that reduces emissions by 70 percent or
    more.
        The Clear Skies Act meets and exceeds those emissions
    targets. The Clear Skies Act embraces the reductions in the
    Moynihan proposal and then goes further with an additional
    phase of cuts. The emission caps in the Clear Skies Act will
    set the course for recovery of the Adirondacks.
        Three years ago when the Adirondack Council last testified
    before this committee, Senator Voinovich observed that New York
    had to show that we were willing to do what were asking of the
    States upwind. Well, Senator, it is done, and we are back.
        Last week the Pataki Administration in New York adopted the
    toughest acid rain regulations in the country despite the fact
    that more than 80 percent of our acid deposition problem
    originates outside our borders. We are doing what we can but we
    need Congress' help.
        New York is part of the EPA brokered 22-State State
    Implementation Plan that will reduce nitrogen emissions
    significantly during the summer ozone season in 2004. The SIP
    call is only a summer seasonal program and will not address in
    a significant way the total loading of nitrogen to sensitive
    areas. New York will require its power plants to implement
    year-around controls immediately under the new regulations.
        The Clear Skies Act does not impose those year-around
    controls until 2008. The Council requests that the committee
    take a look at whether imposition of year-around control
    controls could be advanced.
        In the markup of Senator Jeffords' bill last session,
    Senator Clinton offered an amendment which was adopted by this
    committee. The amendment would ensure that the benefits
    anticipated by new emission caps were, in fact, occurring in
    sensitive areas. If not, the Administrator would have the
    authority to reduce emissions from contributing sources to
    reduce acid deposition to tolerable levels. We appreciate that
    Senator Jeffords has retained the provision in the
    reintroduction of his bill this session. We would appreciate
    this consideration by the committee.
        We would also request that the committee examine whether
    there can be faster timetables, especially in the out-years for
    the second phases of SOx and NOx reductions in Clear Skies.
    Every year that can be gained and every ton that can be saved
    will hasten the biological recovery of our forest, our streams,
    and our coastal estuaries and will save thousands of lives.
        Last spring President George W. Bush visited the Adirondack
    Park on Earth Day. He said that he was committed to solving the
    acid rain problem. The President chose the occasion of the
    State of the Union message to renew that commitment to call for
    action this year. The introduction by the leadership of this
    committee of the Clear Skies Act is an important step forward.
        I want to extend on behalf of the Board of Directors of the
    Adirondack Council an invitation to all of members of this
    committee to visit the Adirondack Park and see what a wonderful
    resource you will save. Perhaps you will have the good future
    to hear the haunting call of the loon in the Adirondack
    Wilderness and know that the same experience has been preserved
    for future generations by the actions you take this year.
        Mr. Chairman, the Senate committed itself to the task of
    ending the destruction of acid rain over a decade ago. We think
    it is time to finish the job.
        Thank you again.
        I would request that my full statement be placed in the
    record in its entirety.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you very much.
        Mr. Melewski, I am sorry I was not here to hear all of your
    testimony. But you mentioned in the testimony the adoption of
    the caps proposed for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide in
    Clear Skies will set the course for recovery of the Adirondacks
    and the many other acid rain ravaged sections of the country.
        If you mentioned this, I apologize. I know we have had some
    dialog with your organization last year in terms of the issue
    of greenhouse gases. You indicated that you were in favor of
    moving forward on these three because you felt that it was time
    for something to be done.
        Would you comment on your frustration over the last couple
    of years with the lack of real movement in terms of making any
    difference for your part of the country and why you feel that
    not including greenhouse gases is something that you feel
    comfortable with?
        Mr. Melewski. Well, Senator, if it were just the last
    couple of years, we would be happy. It has actually been over a
    10-year period. As you know, our organization joined with New
    York State in suing the U.S. EPA several times to get reports
    out that reveal that the Clear Air Amendments of 1990 were not
    adequate to protect the Adirondack Park and many other
    sensitive areas.
        We have continued to generate and to publicize scientific
    inquiries that verify the need for additional action. We have
    had a string of our New York Senators--D'Amato, Moynihan,
    Schumer, and Clinton--all introducing legislation trying to
    make this the No. 1 environmental priority in New York. As I
    mentioned in my testimony, Governor Pataki has already
    implemented regulations that, in effect, have adopted the
    Moynihan proposal.
        So the difficulty in the last couple of years has been the
    ongoing controversy over carbon dioxide and global warming. We
    would be pleased to see a bill move out of this committee and
    onto the floor that has provisions on climate change and global
    warming. We would not be pleased to see any controversy or lack
    of agreement on that one issue keep us from moving forward on
    the very desperately needed measures for sulfur, nitrogen, and
    mercury.
        Senator Voinovich. I think last year when we contacted you,
    you indicated that same position. I think at that stage of the
    game you were in favor of a more aggressive program that we had
    talked with you about. It was not Clear Skies.
        But you feel that the numbers in Clear Skies will move down
    the road and start making some difference for you?
        Mr. Melewski. Yes, absolutely. As I stated in my testimony,
    the Moynihan legislation represented the minimum that needs to
    be done, in our opinion, to change the course of direction in
    the Adirondack Park. Clear Skies meets those same standards and
    exceeds them. In fact, all the major proposals that have been
    introduced in this committee, or are about to be introduced, as
    Senator Carper mentioned, would resolve the acid rain problem.
        The facts are that the faster we get the cuts and the
    deeper the cuts are, the quicker the biological recovery will
    occur in the Adirondacks. If we had to choose between deeper
    and faster, faster would be the choice.
        Senator Voinovich. You just want to get going?
        Mr. Melewski. We just want to get going.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Rogers, obviously one of the major
    drivers for Clear Skies is the need for regulatory certainty.
    Can you explain why certainty is so important to your company,
    especially with regard to your need to raise capital that will
    fund the pollution control projects that you need in the
    future?
        Once you have answered that, I would be interested in your
    comments about living in this regulatory environment that we
    have been in for the last couple of years. What impact do you
    feel it has had on your ability to make the air cleaner,
    improve public health, and provide more efficient energy?
        Mr. Rogers. The key to certainty, Senator, really is having
    a road map so that you can do the work in a systematic way on
    each of your power plants. What that requires is knowing what
    the SO2 regulations will be, what the NOx
    regulations will be, what the mercury regulations will be. We
    sit here today with no clarity with respect to what those
    regulations will be in the future.
        What Clear Skies offers is a clear path. It allows us to
    time investments. Our company's balance sheet was under
    tremendous pressure. Many of the coal-fired utilities' balance
    sheets have been under great pressure of just complying with
    NOx.
        This work on the back end of your plants is in terms of
    building scrubbers, but at the same time maintaining the
    reliability of your system. If you phase it in over the right
    period of time, not only do you maintain the integrity of your
    balance sheets, you attract the necessary capital to make the
    investments, but you smooth out the impact on consumers over a
    period of time rather than having steep increases.
        The primary reason we support Clear Skies is that it gives
    a clear path and allows you to plan investments, to plan
    construction, and at the end of the day, it translates into
    delivering cleaner power at lower cost.
        One of the challenges we have had, is there has been so
    much litigation, for instance, around NOx. The time lines have
    been compressed, and that translates into greater costs and a
    greater need for workers that are qualified. We also need to
    make the right investments.
        So from our standpoint, timing matters. The sooner we know
    the plan, the sooner we go to work. We are able to execute this
    over a period of time and that translates into lower costs for
    consumers. That is very important.
        Senator Voinovich. We have to strike a balance. We heard
    from Mr. Hawkins that we ought to move forward. When do you get
    to the point that you say to your shareholders that it is
    better for us to fuel switch to natural gas? If that happens,
    then as I mentioned in my opening statement, you then have a
    situation where the cost just skyrockets. You have a lot of
    people to just pick up and leave.
        Where is that balance? We are talking about numbers and we
    are talking about time. You want to strike that. What is your
    reaction?
        Mr. Rogers. I think the industry has actually,
    interestingly enough, almost defaulted to a place where we have
    increasingly become dependent on gas-fired generation. As I
    mentioned, as an industry, we have built 10 years of capacity
    in a 3-year period. It is all gas-fired. No other time in our
    history have we been so dependent on one fuel.
        Our company, for instance, has added 2,000 megawatts of
    gas-fired peaking. We are converting one of our small coal
    plants to gas. But at the end of the day, there are limits on
    how much you can switch to gas. I think you already see that.
    Nobody in their right mind is going to plan to build a coal-
    fired plant which takes five to 7 years to build when you do
    not know what the regulations will be with respect to SOx, NOx,
    or mercury.
        It leaves the industry in a place where you continue to
    default to gas-fired peakers. That is not the long-term
    solution for this country, to become so dependent on one fuel.
        Senator Voinovich. Let me tell you what worries me. If you
    have reached that point where that decision is made for fuel
    switching, it impacts on your industries. Your industries
    leave. As I told Senator Jeffords last year, they are not going
    to Vermont. They are going somewhere else.
        I do not think a lot of people who are involved in this
    issue understand how devastating natural gas prices are today,
    not only on heating costs but what they have had on electric
    costs. We move the jobs out of the United States to some other
    place that burns coal. They do not have the types of
    environmental concerns, and in terms of the environment of the
    world, we have made no progress.
        If you can keep the pressure on to get you to use clean
    coal technology and other technology for mercury and other
    things, that you keep the jobs here, you develop the
    technology, and then you can either sell or give that
    technology away to other countries in the world that are going
    to be out there manufacturing this stuff. That is the delicate
    balance that we have to try to achieve.
        Mr. Rogers. Unfortunately, Senator, there is no silver
    bullet for these issues. We have to invest in technology. At
    the same time, we have to work to help our customers become
    more efficient in terms of their use of energy. At the same
    time, if we do not pay attention to the supply/demand balance
    on the gas side and if we continue to default to more and more
    gas-fired generation, that is going to translate to times where
    we could not run some of our gas-fired units when we needed
    them because there was no capacity in the pipelines. You need
    that kind of infrastructure investment that had not occurred.
    You need to look at the prices this summer and the number of
    plants that shut down for the short term--but it could be for a
    longer term.
        One of the great fears of the gas industry is that the
    volatility of the gas prices and the rising gas prices forces a
    lot of industries, as you suggested, to basically pack up and
    leave town and leave the country. That is not a good answer
    long term for creating jobs.
        What I worry about is jobs. We are in an economy where the
    growth is only two to two-and-a-half percent. That is still
    better than other parts of the world, but not what we expect,
    and not what we hope for. If prices of gas continue to go up
    and we do not use the resources that we have in an
    environmentally responsible manner, we have created a death
    spiral for ourselves that makes it even more difficult for us
    to succeed as a country.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        To each of our witnesses, we are glad you are here. We
        appreciate your testimony and your responsiveness to our
    questions.
        I do not mean to pick on you, Mr. Rogers. Let me just ask
    my first question of you and then we will pick on some others.
    I want to read you a statement by a leader of a major utility
    company. I just want you to listen to it and then react to it,
    if you do not mind. It is quote. It goes back to sometime in
    2001. It says:
        ``My company seeks comprehensive multi-emissions power
    plant legislation because we want long-term clarity and
    certainty built into our environmental compliance and planning
    process. This kind of reasoning dictates the necessity of
    including a carbon commitment in the legislation. Without some
    sense of what our carbon commitment might be over the next 10,
    15, or 20 years, how can I or any other utility CEO have an
    adequate picture of what the future requirements our plants may
    face? How can we prudently plan?''
        You probably recognize those words because they are your
    own. Those were words that I am told that you stated in a
    presentation in September 2001 before a forum on applied
    research and public policy.
        I do not recall everything that I say anyone that I suspect
    any of the rest of us do. But I found that to be a powerful
    statement and one that I certainly welcome. I do not know you
    well, but I know your reputation, and your reputation is a
    person who says what he thinks and someone who can take what he
    says to the bank.
        I presume you meant what you said in 2001. I would just
    like to ask you to reflect on what you said and think about it
    today.
        Mr. Rogers. Thank you. My staff read that back to me in
    preparation for today.
        [Laughter.]
        Mr. Rogers. I am here to say that it was just as brilliant
    then as it might be perceived today. Let me make a point--and
    this is from a personal standpoint and not speaking for EEI. I
    am just speaking for Jim Rogers, CEO of one company.
        We burn 30 million tons of coal a year. We have significant
    emissions. As a consequence of that, we have a responsibility
    to get it right, not only with respect to our emissions, but
    with respect to the costs to our consumers. I am concerned
    about climate change. I think it is an issue that we need to
    address. But we need to have in this country reasonable
    expectations about what is possible.
        Yes, we want certainty. One of the things I said in a more
    detailed way is that we need to find a way to take a risk at
    first strategy that allows us to flatten the curve. I think the
    reduction in carbon intensity is a step in that direction.
    There has been a number of voluntary steps that we have taken
    as a company, and in fact, that our industry has taken, to
    reduce CO2 emissions. These are all steps in the
    right direction.
        But unfortunately we cannot have the certainty that we
    desire. One, we have yet to find a technology that really
    reduces CO2. That is an issue. We have not found a
    substitute for the coal-fired plants and gas-fired plants that
    we have in this country. Yet, we still have a requirement to
    keep our TVs on and to run our computers and to maintain the
    lifestyle that we have grown accustomed to.
        I think we need to go to work. I think we are going to
    work. There are many voluntary programs, first steps, good
    steps, more investments in technology. But we need to work to
    reduce our carbon intensity. We have taken steps in that
    direction.
        I believe this is an issue that we will not go away. It is
    an issue that we have to deal with. But I do not think at the
    end of the day--and I going to be blunt with this point--there
    is a lot of theology around it also. I will not dare go there.
    I will leave that to you.
        But I think the importance of making progress on SOx, NOx,
    and mercury is great. I look to the difficulty that the Senate
    had in just coming together around the simple question of
    reporting emissions. I think that will become even more
    difficult to do more than even that.
        I am a realist. I say and I urge you to think. We need to
    make progress with SOx, NOx, and mercury. Let us not fight for
    days and months and years around CO2 while we ignore
    making progress on those three pollutants. I would urge you to
    continue the debate, to continue the investigation, to continue
    the investment in new technologies, and to continue to issue on
    the front burner, but not delay moving forward on these other
    things, waiting to come up with the perfect solution for that.
        In an ideal world I would love for it to happen. But I do
    not think it going to happen for the reasons I stated.
        Senator Carper. About once a week I hear someone here on
    Capitol Hill say, ``Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the
    good.'' I was very encouraged when I read your statement. I
    realize there was something said about 18 months ago. I
    appreciate the way you have spoken today--I think from your
    heart.
        I would just like to my colleagues on my right and my left.
    I think there are other CEOs of utilities around this country
    who share that conviction, who are not comfortable with the
    idea that we are putting as much carbon into the air from a lot
    of sources as we are and what the long-term consequences for
    us, whether we are in Tupelo, Mississippi, Cleveland, Ohio,
    Vermont, or Delaware.
        I want to ask a question, if I could, of Mr. Trisko. You
    may have been in the room earlier in the day when I introduced
    myself as the only native-born Senator from West Virginia and
    one who still has a lot of family in West Virginia and who goes
    back there from time-to-time for a reunion at Grand View State
    Park. If I would take a course here in Congress that undercut
    coal, I could go back to the reunions, but I would not be as
    warmly welcomed as I might want to be.
        I would like to ask you to share with us what are some
    recent developments, particularly as we look forward, to being
    able to use our abundant coal resources, to use them to create
    energy, electricity, but to do so in a way that we do not have
    problems with the kind of problems we have had in the past with
    coal with respect to SOx, NOx, and mercury.
        I have heard just in the last 24 hours some really
    inspiring information about reductions in those emissions from
    coal, and from a coal that has been turned into a gas. Talk to
    us about that kind of technology.
        Mr. Trisko. Senator, I would be happy to, on a couple of
    levels.
        First, in terms of the pragmatic and what is necessary for
    utilities to achieve the kinds of reductions that are called
    for by Clear Skies. There has been very significant progress
    made in the last decade in particular on technologies that
    reduce SO2 emissions and NOx emissions.
        Scrubbers, particularly the so-called magnesium-enhanced
    limestone scrubbers--lime or limestone, but those that utilize
    a magnesium enhancement--are capable of achieving in excess of
    95 percent removal of SO2 at a quite reasonable cost
    per ton. In some cases, it is 98 percent or more. As a
    byproduct of the scrubbing process, you also achieve mercury
    reductions.
        NOx technology improvements also are notable. In the last
    few years, largely as a result of the emphasis on reducing
    transported ozone in the Eastern United States and the
    development of EPA's SIP call, the commercial development of
    selective catalytic reduction technology has progressed quite
    rapidly. It had been used in Europe and in other countries. It
    is our understanding that SCR technology now is capable of
    achieving NOx emission rate limits at coal plants of NOx at 0.7
    pounds. That would be for a large base load plant application.
        One of the greater difficulties that we see in terms of the
    pragmatic here and now in complying with multi-emission
    legislation really is in the mercury area. While it is true
    that the use of conventional emission control technologies such
    as scrubbers--and some particulate control equipment--reduces
    mercury as a byproduct, we do not have a commercially
    demonstrated system.
        The activated carbon injection technology that EPA relies
    upon largely in its models to estimate the prospective costs of
    mercury of Clear Skies, that technology has only been applied
    at a handful of plants on a demonstration basis. Those plants
    were selected based on the generous size of their particulate
    removal equipment. They may not be representative of the
    hundreds of coal plants that do not have that particularly
    generous particulate electrostatic precipitator configuration.
        Looking forward over the longer term, there certainly is
    reason for optimism in terms of the development of advanced
    clean coal technologies going beyond conventional pulverized
    coal systems, such as integrated gasification combined cycle
    equipment that will virtually eliminate the emissions of
    criteria pollutants, and as a consequence of their improved
    thermal efficiency, also make great progress in terms of carbon
    reductions.
        But for purposes of legislation or regulation at the
    current moment, we are not quite ready for prime time in terms
    of those systems. That is why the kinds of programs that the
    Administration is advancing through its clean coal technology
    programs to us makes sense as a form of insurance. We are not
    just the Saudi Arabia of coal. Our coal reserves in their
    energy content are equivalent to the world's known oil
    reserves. But those kinds of technology developments make a lot
    of sense to ensure that that resource in the future will be
    available for our use.
        Senator Carper. Thank you.
        Mr. Chairman, if we have a chance to ask a couple of other
    questions later, I would like to. My time has expired for now.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Jeffords.
        Senator Jeffords. Mr. Hawkins, I would like to know if you
    have any comments on the EPA or the other witnesses' testimony
    that you have not had a chance to make and would like to make.
        Mr. Hawkins. Yes, Senator Jeffords. Maybe I will make a
    comment on a theme that has been raised by a number of Senators
    and the panel, and that is the topic of coal. The fact is that
    the status quo is not good for U.S. coal, in addition to being
    not good for the climate.
        The current uncertainty about what is going to happen with
    climate policy is causing investors to behavior rationally.
    What do I mean by that? They are not investing in coal. The
    forecast for new capacity in the United States is not going to
    coal. It is going to natural gas. Because of that uncertainty,
    the only entities that are proposing to build coal plants are
    coal companies. With few exceptions a power company will not
    even make the effort to try to permit a significant coal plant.
        Basically, the uncertainty about global warming policy has
    caused people to be nervous about investing in conventional
    coal. And that uncertainty has caused them to not have
    sufficient incentive to invest in advanced coal technologies
    either.
        Senator Carper asked the question about technologies for
    carbon. In his own State, Delaware, there is advanced
    technology in operation today at the Motiva Refinery. The feed
    stock is not coal. It is petroleum coke. But the technology is
    basically the same. It is commercially demonstrated. You put
    the coal or the petroleum coke in there. You gasify it. Then in
    order to manage the carbon, you need to capture the carbon and
    you need to do something with it.
        In this country we are storing CO2 for purposes
    of oil recovery in enhanced oil recovery operations. We are
    storing 30 million tons of it a year. All of the elements of a
    strategy that would allow coal to continue to be used, and
    decouple it from a global warming problem, are out there today.
    They are not being used in an integrated package because there
    is absolutely no market incentive to do so.
        That is going to stay that way until this committee starts
    the process rolling. It is not too soon to start it. We can
    develop a program that sends the signal that gets people moving
    and gets the investors making the right decision. Eugene Trisko
    and I could sit in a room and come up with something. I think
    it would address the needs of the coal industry and it would
    address the needs of protecting the climate. It would provide
    business certainty. I think it would address Jim Rogers' needs
    as well.
        We just have to get over what is an irrational fear of
    addressing this issue. It will not get easier. The longer we
    ignore it, the harder it will get.
        Senator Jeffords. Thank you. That is very helpful.
        Mr. Colburn, what would Clear Skies do to your State's
    abilities to protect public health, achieve attainment, and to
    operate their existing pollution control programs?
        Mr. Colburn. Senator, there are several ways that State
    authorities would be impacted. I have listed several on an
    attachment to my testimony. Perhaps rather than go through
    those individually, I will cover just a few of the high points.
        The most important aspect of your question is what happens
    following whatever Federal solution or Federal reductions
    emanate from a bill passed by Congress this session. Under
    Clear Skies, for example, it is not clear that the reductions
    achieved will produce attainment everywhere in all the States.
    Under Federal law now, the States have the responsibility for
    achieving Federal health-based air quality standards.
        If the States lose any of their current regulatory
    authorities as a result of Federal multi-pollutant legislation,
    it is not clear what mechanisms they will use to fulfill this
    responsibility to achieve attainment. One of our biggest fears,
    then, is the apparent reduction in State authorities that are
    incorporated in the Clear Skies proposal. We feel, as I
    indicated in my testimony, that it is a far safer and far
    better approach for States to retain all the authorities that
    exist in the current Clean Air Act and not need to use them if
    attainment is reached everywhere or is easily reached with a
    few additional mechanisms that States impose. This approach is
    much more likely to guarantee that healthy air quality is
    achieved than depriving States of those tools, as called for in
    some of the provisions of Clear Skies.
        If the tools are not used, that is wonderful. A State that
    is in attainment cannot use Section 126, for example. I think
    that is the outcome we all want.
        In addition, there are other hazardous air pollutants
    besides mercury emitted by the power sector. It may be that
    scientific investigations now under way show that several of
    those should be regulated in form or another. States currently
    have the authority to do so.
        That authority is deleted under Clear Skies. There is a
    little bit of a question about this, Senator, but it even
    appears that under Clear Skies State actions to go beyond
    Federal requirements to meet their State SIP requirements, may
    be prohibited or constrained.
        Essentially the States feel that while Clear Skies itself
    represents a good step in the right direction, perhaps not as
    far, or as fast, or for as many pollutants as need be, they are
    fundamentally getting their arms tied behind their back in
    exchange for that down payment of initial reductions. It is not
    clear to us that that will end up being a good trade in the
    end. We are concerned about that.
        Senator Jeffords. Thank you.
        Mr. Trisko, would your Union support a CO2 cap
    that would produce no significant impact on domestic coal
    production?
        Mr. Trisko. Senator, that is a hypothetical question. I
    learned in law school a long time ago to avoid answering
    hypothetical questions, but I would be happy to comment upon
    the question.
        First of all, I am not at liberty to state whether
    President Cecil Roberts of the United Mine Workers would or
    would not support such a hypothetical cap. You would have to
    address the question to him directly. But that being said,
    given the wealth of analytical evidence that is available to us
    through the studies that have been done leading up to Kyoto and
    subsequent to Kyoto for the design of an alternative ``Kyoto-
    lite'' approach, however it might be characterized, we have yet
    to see a program that would cap domestic utility carbon
    emissions that would not have adverse effects upon coal
    consumption.
        One analysis that has been made available to us was done by
    a private group--for the bill that Senator Carper is currently
    associated with--analyzed the prospective impact of those
    emissions caps on the domestic utility industry. It suggested
    that in the worst case the bill could be associated with a 41
    percent reduction of coal utilization.
        We would like to see and encourage the committee to pursue
    additional analyses of alternative measures. In fact, when the
    mine workers were approached last year for their prospective
    support to Senator Carper's proposal, that was our request. We
    want to see the numbers. We want to understand what the bill
    would do.
        Senator Jeffords. Thank you.
        Mr. Melewski, why does the Adirondack Council support
    legislation that eliminates the New Source Review Program?
        Mr. Melewski. Well, Senator, first of all, I do not think
    the Clear Skies program eliminates the New Source Review
    Program. There is a moratorium on new initiatives for a period
    of years. There is a troubling new standard that is provided in
    the Clear Skies bill. We do not offer any particular expertise
    in those provisions. They have been intensely discussed since
    the bill was introduced. I know that many members of the
    committee have problems with them.
        We can offer a simple solution that is one that was taken
    in 1990 which is to keep the existing Act in place and create
    new programs on SO2, NOx, SOx, and hopefully
    something on the climate change.
        Senator Jeffords. Mr. Chairman, that exhausts my present
    desires to pursue anything more. We will expect the answers to
    our questions that have been submitted.
        Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        I just have one last question for the panel. You have all
    heard each other comment about each other's testimony. Would
    any of you like to comment on any of your fellow panelist's
    testimony?
        Mr. Colburn?
        Mr. Colburn. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would make one
    comment. I think Mr. Trisko raised an extremely important point
    when he suggests that at the current time the situation is
    such-and-such. I would remind the committee that we are not
    talking about the current time. We are talking about 15 years
    from now.
        The reason that is important, Senator, is this. I was the
    Air Director of the State of New Hampshire in 1995 when we
    installed the first selective catalytic reduction NOx control
    technology (SCR) on a coal-fired plant in, I believe, the
    world, but certainly in America. Soon after that, there were
    deliberations as part of the OTAG process (Ozone Transport
    Assessment Group), in which industry indicated how impossible
    it was to secure the steep reductions in Nox reductions that we
    were already getting. I was the only guy there with canceled
    checks about how much it would actually cost to control NOx.
        That process essentially took 6 years--1995 to 2001. Now,
    we are looking at the ability to replicate a 6- or 7-year
    process like that--twice--before Clear Skies would be fully
    implemented. In terms of coal use, I think there is a strong
    technology opportunity for the integrated coal gasification
    that Mr. Trisko and Mr. Hawkins mentioned that could create a
    bright future for coal. This technology would preserve and
    potentially even increase coal usage while diminishing
    dramatically its environmental impacts.
        Right now there is an energy penalty for coal gasification.
    In the way we use coal today, we are paying a health penalty.
    Let us pay the energy penalty instead, and stop paying the
    health penalty, and do so in the next 5 or 6 years instead of
    the next 15 years.
        All of this can be done. It has been done. It has been done
    at less cost than EPA ever estimated, just like the acid rain
    program. We do not have to have it all in the bag today. We
    have seen in the past the progress that has been made when we
    set our minds to it.
        Perhaps my favorite saying is: If you ask an engineer to do
    something, you will get nothing but problems--why it cannot be
    done as fast, what could go wrong, and so forth. But if you
    tell an engineer to do something, you will get nothing but
    solutions.
        That is what has happened in the past, Senators, when
    Congress told the engineers and companies like Mr. Rogers' to
    do something. They go to it and achieved spectacularly beyond
    our expectations. They will do so again.
        Senator Voinovich. As a Governor of a State that encouraged
    a company to put on a $650 million scrubber at the Gavin Plant,
    an extraordinary amount of money has gone into these
    investments. This new SER technology was done at Gavin. They
    had to buy out a town in the vicinity there because of a plume
    that settled over the town. They just finally just bought the
    property.
        I think this concept of this technology is around the
    corner. We have a long way to go. It is very expensive.
        One of the things that puzzles me is that last year Tom
    Moynihan from Catholic Charities testified about the cost of
    energy on poor people. Clean Air Trust put them on. He was the
    villain of the month because he testified about that.
        You talked about deaths of 30,000 people. If they cannot
    afford their energy cost and they cannot afford their air
    conditioning, then they die. You talked about individuals that
    lose their jobs. They go overseas and they do not have the
    money to pay for health care, they are not in very good shape.
        It is very disturbing to me. It is very typical here in
    this Congress. We do not really very often put each other's
    shoes on and try to work with each other to figure out how
    things should be worked out. That is why we are not really
    getting very far here. It is a very frustrating place to be for
    me as a Governor and as a Mayor who was able to try to work
    things out.
        Mr. Trisko, I would like you to comment.
        Mr. Trisko. Senator, thank you. In exchange for your
    remarks, I will be quite brief on this subject. To paraphrase
    the gentleman from Tupelo, it is now or never for this
    legislation. It is now appropriate for the Congress to move a
    three-pollutant bill. If Congress delays and there is further
    inaction, we may lose the opportunity to realize the benefit of
    the public health and environmental protections that the bill
    offers.
        Mr. Rogers. Mr. Chairman, I would like to echo Mr. Trisko's
    comments. I do think now is the time. I think one of the themes
    that is consistent among all of us here today--and I have tried
    to listen carefully to the themes--one of the themes that
    emerges is that the Clean Air Act is not working. It needs to
    get fixed. Now is the time to fix it. I think everybody here
    recognizes that.
        My dad was a lawyer. He used to say that the devil was in
    the details. My mom quickly responded that God is in the
    details. The way I understand this issue I think there are
    enough details for the both of them.
        I would urge you to roll up your sleeves as you do, and you
    have, and you did as a Governor, and go to work. Work through
    the details, find the right sets of compromises, and go to work
    so that we can turn our engineers loose. We can turn our people
    loose and go to work and solve the problems in a way that
    allows us to meet our energy goals, meet our environmental
    goals, keep our economy going, and keep jobs in the U.S. That
    has to be an important ingredient in this whole discussion.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Hawkins?
        Mr. Hawkins. Senator, if I might make a comment on costs.
    Of course you are right. It is important to consider the costs
    of policies you adopt. But EPA has done that consideration and
    it has presented you some of that information. That is more
    that they have to present. If requested, perhaps they would do
    so.
        But the analyses that they have conducted, for example, of
    the more protective option that the Administration rejected,
    had a compliance cost of $10 billion a year. Those are EPA's
    calculations. The electric sector revenues in 2020, which is
    the forecast year, are $330 billion. So $10 billion is a lot of
    money. But $10 billion as an addition to a $330 billion total
    is a small amount of money. It is about a 3 percent increase in
    the cost of generating electricity. That is not a large amount
    of money.
        The same analysis was done to examine a policy that would
    have capped emissions at 75 percent reductions for SOx, NOx,
    and mercury, and imposed a carbon cap at year 2008 levels. That
    analysis was done in response to your request to the Energy
    Information Agency back in the spring 2001.
        EIA came back and said that that would raise the average
    electricity rate from 6.7 cents per kilowatt hour to 7.1 cents
    per kilowatt hour. That is about a 5 or 6 percent increase.
        In terms of poor people's needs, of course those should be
    addressed. Senator Jeffords' bill has provisions in it which
    could be incorporated into a piece of legislation that calls
    for establishment of a public trust that could make funds
    available for things like lifeline rates and other purposes to
    make sure that there is no adverse impact while we actually go
    about protecting health and starting to address global warming.
        There are ways to solve these problems. We want to work
    with you to try to find them.
        Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. I do a lot of meeting with people in my
    State. We are in a global market place. It is very interesting
    that another great cost that they all have is health care
    costs. They are competing with other countries that do not have
    the same health care costs. You just start adding all of this
    up. It is not really a rosy scenario about jobs in this country
    and where are going. I think we have to realize that we are in
    a global market place and that the environmental concerns that
    we have also have to be balanced with the economic concerns of
    the people in our country.
        Senator Carper has one more question. I think we will then
    wrap it up.
        Senator Carper. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        In your testimony, Mr. Colburn, I believe you said--and I
    am going to paraphrase you--you said that carbon does not need
    to be onerous. It does need to be in the bill.
        Give us some idea of the approach you would have us take
    with respect to carbon.
        Mr. Colburn. Senator, I think that even the greatest
    trading foes admit that trading of carbon dioxide does make
    sense because its impact is global. There are no local impacts
    from climate change. It is all global impact. There are impacts
    that happen locally, of course. But carbon dioxide's impact on
    climate change is a global concern.
        While many horror stories have been suggested about carbon
    taxes or carbon control costs in the $25, $50, or $100 range
    per ton, I think an effective mechanism could be established--
    probably through a cap, but a lenient enough cap such that the
    effective price of carbon were very small at a very small cost.
    I would rhetorically argue for perhaps 25 cents per ton.
        The important thing is what you said before, Senator:
    Markets work. Well, if markets work, let us get carbon in the
    market. Let us not pat it on the head and give it some
    technology development money and shoo it away. Let us get it in
    the market. Let us do so in a way that is not terribly onerous
    with a cap that does not create a substantive burdens for Mr.
    Rogers' company and other utilities. But let us let the market
    work on carbon.
        Senator Carper. Senator Voinovich was talking earlier about
    the economic impact of what we are discussing here. To the
    extent that we drive up the cost of energy for our consumers,
    including for industry, manufacturing businesses as well, there
    is a concern that we hasten the exodus of manufacturing jobs
    from this country. We ought to be concerned about that. I know
    that I am. We ought to be concerned about the out-of-pocket
    costs for consumers for buying their electricity. We are all
    mindful of that.
        Earlier I said in my questioning of another witness, that
    the Clean Energy Group has actually done an analysis of a 4-P
    bill which includes carbon dioxide, and concluded that if we
    added a fourth pollutant, carbon dioxide--to a 3-P bill, SOx,
    NOx, and mercury--that we would see over the next 15 or so
    years an increase of about 1.5 percent the cost of adhering to
    emissions requirements.
        It is not free, but it is 1.5 percent. It does provide a
    measure of certainty. To this Senator and former Governor who
    cares a lot about economic development and maintaining jobs,
    where do we do reach a tradeoff? What is acceptable--a 1.5
    percent increase? Those are not my numbers. Those are the
    numbers from the Clean Energy Group.
        But to have the kind of certainty and arguably taking real
    steps toward addressing global warming, is that an unreasonable
    tradeoff? I would ask any of our witnesses to respond. Mr.
    Trisko?
        Mr. Trisko. Senator, my first question with respect to the
    economic impact that you cited from that study was whether the
    Clean Energy Group had analyzed the impact of the proposal
    nationally or whether that was an impact related to its
    generation sources. The Clean Energy Group is primarily fueled
    by oil, nuclear, and natural gas. It has some coal generation,
    but it is not representative of the Nation's coal-fired
    utilities.
        Senator Carper. I understand that it is national. It is not
    just the Clean Energy Group. It is national, which I think
    makes it even more of significance to us.
        Mr. Trisko. One of my previous responses to the committee's
    questions encouraged the committee to pursue analyses through
    EIA, EPA, and others, of alternative approaches. We would
    certainly be interested in seeing that study when it is
    released.
        My second point with respect to the reasonableness of the
    impacts is from a more global perspective. I have attended
    every international negotiation session since the Rio Treaty
    was negotiated in 1992--Geneva, Bonn, Kyoto, Buenos Aires and
    others.
        We have in the climate change arena an extremely serious
    breakdown of the negotiation process that must be remedied. If
    you believe in the seriousness of the problem, and you believe
    the science in all good faith, that international breakdown
    must be remedied if progress is to be made on this front. The
    developing countries, led by the G-7 and China, essentially
    have repudiated any effort, however offered in good faith to
    discuss future limits on the growth of their emissions. These
    are not absolute constraints or cutbacks or rollbacks, but
    merely to discuss future limits on the growth rates of their
    emissions.
        The United States put forward an ``evolution'' proposal in
    Kyoto in 1997 that said, ``Listen, we, Annex One industrial
    countries, we are meeting here in order to agree on substantive
    emissions reductions. But we have a political problem.
    Recognize our political problem. We cannot go back to our
    capitals. We cannot go back to Washington empty-handed and say,
    we have just agreed to negotiate among ourselves--Europe, the
    United States, and Japan--a set of emission reductions. We need
    to have some sign from you, from India, from China, from
    Brazil, from Korea, from Mexico. We need some sign that after
    we meet our reductions, that you will then be willing to sit
    down and talk about future limits so that we can have a global
    agreement.''
        That proposal, which we put forward through New Zealand--
    they tend to be more articulate than we are, and they sound a
    lot more diplomatic--that proposal triggered a 5-hour
    filibuster. It subsequently led to the removal of the issue of
    evolution from future United Nations meetings. We must solve
    this fundamental problem at a global level before we can make
    progress on the issue of climate change.
        Senator Carper. I think that is a good cautionary note. I
    do not know these numbers off the top of my head. It would be
    interesting to know, to the extent that there is carbon dioxide
    that is emitted from manufacturers, from utilities, and from
    other sources, what portion of global CO2 emissions
    from the U.S. versus some of the other nations that you have
    mentioned.
        That does not take away from the validity of the point that
    I think you are making.
        Mr. Hawkins, do you have a closing comment?
        Mr. Hawkins. Yes, I agree with Eugene Trisko that we need
    to have an effective strategy for addressing the engagement
    with developing countries. But sitting back and telling them
    that they should shape up is not an effective strategy. An
    effective strategy is using good old fashion American know-how,
    applying it to the job, showing the world that it is easier to
    solve this problem than they think, and that they need not be
    afraid of it. We can do that.
        We have the capacity in this country, the biggest economic
    power on earth, to prove out these technologies. When you are
    out of the room, Senator, I mentioned the Motiva Refinery in
    your own State, which is operating gasification technology to
    convert a filthy fuel, petroleum coke, into a clean energy
    source. That same technology can be used, and would be used, if
    we start to apply the market signal that Ken Colburn is talking
    about.
        When we do that, we will have something to talk to China
    and India about. China is going to build 500 gigawatts of new
    coal-fired capacity in the next 30 years. We will have
    something to talk to them about. We will say, ``Look what we
    are doing in the United States. We are evolving into modern
    technology. We are going to use our coal without messing up the
    planet with climate change. You can do it, too.''
        We are actually demonstrating that it is affordable. That
    is what we can do and that is how we can start to break these
    logjams.
        Senator Carper. In response to what Mr. Hawkins has said,
    we worry a lot about the exporting of manufacturing jobs. I
    know I do. I know others do. Would it not be great if we could
    somehow export technology to address these kinds of concerns.
        Mr. Rogers, your quick comment.
        Mr. Rogers. Senator, let me make an observation with
    respect to that study. While I have not studied it in great
    detail, I would observe that it is a national number. Let us
    not forget that any kind of legislation that adversely affects
    coal is going to have a disproportionate impact on the Midwest
    and the Southeast.
        I think we really need to keep that in mind. Since I am in
    the Midwest, I know we serve the steel industry, the auto
    industry, and the chemical industry. They are going to be
    adversely impacted in a dramatic way.
        While it is interesting to have a national number, when you
    look at the Midwest where 80 percent of its energy comes from
    the burning of coal, we need to remember it is going to have a
    disproportionate impact on that part of our economy. That is
    the industrial heartland of this country.
        With respect to the whole carbon issue worldwide, let us
    not get fooled with even the European countries. While they
    stepped up and gave lip service to Kyoto, countries like
    Germany, for instance, have agreed with the Green Party to shut
    down their nuclear units. How are they going to serve their
    demand in that country and reduce their emissions? They will
    not and they cannot.
        The same is true with Spain. We used to own wind farms in
    Spain. We saw that they started to change how they dispatch
    renewable. We started to discount it. We sold our assets and
    left. While they pay lip service to it, the reality is that
    their day-to-day behavior indicates anything but the capability
    to achieve those targets. We need to be circumspect in our
    approach and not get tricked by the lip service that others may
    pay.
        Senator Carper. Mr. Chairman, I have no more questions.
        I would like to make a quick brief comment. I am encouraged
    by today's hearing. I am encouraged by what I have heard here
    and in other earlier witnesses. I am encouraged by the kind of
    comments that Mr. Rogers made today and his comments of
    September 2001. He spoke with sincerity then and today.
        Mr. Trisko's explanation and description of the kind of new
    technology which would enable us to pull coal out of places
    like West Virginia and to use it in its abundance in ways that
    do not harm our environment and our air in the way they do.
        Jim Riley, who sits right behind me, reminded me of a visit
    that we paid to W.L. Gore. They make Gortex, but they make a
    lot of other products as well, including an infiltration system
    that is being used on a demonstration model down in North
    Carolina. The demonstration project is run by the EPA. They are
    removing mercury out of the air emissions by more than 95
    percent. I am encouraged by that kind of technology and the
    potential of what they can mean to us for cleaner air, and at
    the same time to enable us to stay in business and to be
    competitive as a Nation.
        Each and every one of you is most welcome. Thank you all.
        Senator Jeffords. Mr. Chairman, I have a question. I ask
    that three documents we have be made a part of the record. It
    is an analysis of the bill and two lists of studies of mercury.
        Senator Voinovich. Without objection.
        [Material to be supplied follows:]
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Melewski, do you have a quick
    statement to finish up?
        Mr. Melewski. Yes, I have a quick statement. It is a more
    esoteric observation about climate change.
        I testified today that in 1998 we were here and had asked
    for similar changes to the Clean Air Act. My recollection is
    that the representative from Cinergy testified that it saw no
    reason to see a change in the Clean Air Act. Now we are here
    with Mr. Rogers 5 years later. We are both asking this
    committee to work together, to put a bill together, and move it
    to the floor. I think that is a significant climate change.
        Mr. Trisko. Evolution.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Rogers said to us today, ``It is
    time to move forward.''
        With that, we are adjourned.
        [Whereupon, at 5:08 p.m., the committee was adjourned, to
    reconvene at the call of the chairman.]
        [Additional statements submitted for the record follow:

         Statement of Hon. Christine Todd Whitman, Administrator, U.S.
                        Environmental Protection Agency

                                I. INTRODUCTION

        Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Members of the committee for the
    opportunity to speak with you today about the Clear Skies Act of 2003.
    Based on one of the most successful programs created by the Clean Air
    Act, Clear Skies is a proposal to substantially reduce emissions of the
    three most harmful pollutants from power generation and to do so in a
    way that is much faster and more efficient than under current law. As
    President Bush said in the State of the Union Address, Clear Skies will
    advance our goal of ``promot[ing] energy independence for our country,
    while dramatically improving our environment.'' The Administration is
    committed to working with this Subcommittee and Congress to pass
    legislation this year. The widespread support for multi-pollutant
    legislation to reduce power plant emissions is a strong indicator that
    the time for action on this critical issue is now. Failure to enact
    Clear Skies this year will delay important public health and
    environmental benefits.
        This country should be very proud of the progress we have already
    made in cleaning up our air. Since the Clean Air Act was first enacted
    in 1970, we have reduced emissions of the six primary air pollutants by
    25 percent. During the same time period, the economy has grown
    significantly the Gross Domestic Product increased 160 percent; vehicle
    miles traveled increased 150 percent; energy consumption increased 40
    percent; and the U.S. population increased 35 percent.
        Although we have made much progress since 1970, we still face major
    air quality challenges in many parts of the country. Clear Skies is the
    most important next step we can take to address these challenges and
    achieve healthy air and a clean environment for all Americans. Clear
    Skies would make great strides toward solving our remaining air quality
    problems in a way that also advances national energy security and
    promotes economic growth. It would reduce power plant emissions of
    SO2, NOx and mercury by approximately 70 percent from
    today's levels and do it faster, with more certainty, and at less cost
    to American consumers than would current law. Last year's EPA estimates
    project that, over the next decade, all the programs of the existing
    Clean Air Act would reduce power plant emissions of SO2 and
    NOx by approximately 23 million tons. Over the same time period, Clear
    Skies would reduce emissions of these same pollutants by 58 million
    tons a reduction of 35 million tons of pollution that will not be
    achieved under current law\1\.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \1\Except where otherwise noted, the projected emission levels,
    costs and benefits in this testimony are all based on analyses of the
    Clear Skies Act of 2002 conducted in 2002. EPA is currently analyzing
    the Clear Skies Act of 2003 using updated modeling assumptions and
    other updated information. We expect that the new analyses will be very
    similar to the 2002 analyses, but specific projections will likely
    change somewhat.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        When fully implemented, Clear Skies would prolong thousands of
    lives each year, providing billions of dollars in economic benefits,
    save millions of dollars in health care costs, and increase by millions
    the number of people living in areas that meet our new, more stringent
    health-based national air quality standards. Clear Skies would also
    virtually eliminate chronic acidity in northeastern lakes, reduce
    nitrogen loading in coastal waters, and help restore visibility in our
    national parks.
        The Clean Air Act has been, and continues to be, a vehicle for
    great progress in improving the health and welfare of the American
    people. The Clear Skies Act substantially expands one of the most
    successful Clean Air Act programs the Acid Rain Program and reduces the
    need to rely on complex and less efficient programs. The result would
    be significant nationwide human health and environmental benefits;
    certainty for industry, States and citizens; energy security; and
    continuing low costs to consumers.

                 II. CLEAR SKIES PROVIDES SIGNIFICANT BENEFITS

        The heart of Clear Skies is a proven cap-and-trade approach to
    emissions reductions. Mandatory caps restrict total emissions and
    decline over time. Clear Skies would continue the existing national
    cap-and-trade program for SO2, but dramatically reduce the
    cap from 9 million to 3 million tons. Clear Skies would also use a
    national cap-and-trade program for mercury that would reduce emissions
    from the current level of about 48 tons to a cap of 15 tons, and would
    employ two regional cap-and-trade programs for NOx to reduce emissions
    from current levels of 5 million tons to 1.7 million tons. The specific
    caps and their timing are set forth in Table 1.

                                   Table 1. Clear Skies Emission Reductions Timetable
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Clear Skies Emissions Caps
                                       Actual Emissions  ---------------------------------------- Total Reduction at
                                            in 2000         First Phase of      Second Phase of          Full
                                                              Reductions          Reductions        Implementation
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    SO2.............................  11.2 million tons.  4.5 million tons    3 million tons in   73%
                                                           in 2010\1\.         2018\1\.
    NOx\2\..........................  5.1 million tons..  2.1 million tons    1.7 million tons    67%
                                                           in 2008\1\.         in 2018\1\.
    Mercury.........................  48 tons...........  26 tons in 2010...  15 tons in 2018\1\  69%
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    \1\Because sources can reduce emissions early, earn allowances for those actions, and use those allowances
      later, actual emission levels will be higher than the cap in the first years of these phases.
    \2\The NOx cap is divided between two zones with separate trading programs under each zone. Zone 1 includes the
      31 eastern states in the continental U.S. and eastern Texas. Zone 2 includes the remaining states
      participating in the WRAP process as well as Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and some of Western Texas.

        Although national in scope, Clear Skies recognizes and adjusts for
    important regional differences in both the nature of air pollution and
    the relative importance of emissions from power generation. The eastern
    half of the country needs reductions in NOx emissions to help meet the
    ozone and fine particle standards, which generally are not an issue in
    the western half of the county (with the exception of California, which
    does not have significant emissions from existing coal-fired power
    plants). The western half of the country needs NOx reductions primarily
    to reduce the regional haze that mars scenic vistas in our national
    parks and wilderness areas, and the nitrogen deposition that harms
    fragile forests. Recognizing these regional differences, Clear Skies
    would establish two trading zones for NOx emissions and prohibit
    trading between the zones to ensure that the critical health-driven
    goals in the East are achieved.
        Clear Skies also recognizes the special visibility protection
    measures that have been developed by States participating in the
    Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP). Clear Skies would essentially
    codify the WRAP's separate SO2 backstop cap-and-trade
    program, which would come into effect only if the WRAP States did not
    meet their 2018 SO2 emissions targets.
        Finally, Clear Skies requires tough, technology-based new source
    standards on all new power generation projects and maintains special
    protections for national parks and wilderness areas when sources locate
    within 50 km of ``Class I'' national parks and wilderness areas.
    Significant Public Health and Environmental Benefits
        The public health and environmental benefits of Clear Skies present
    compelling reasons for its immediate passage. EPA projects that, by
    2010, reductions in fine particle and ozone levels under Clear Skies
    would result in billions of dollars in health and visibility benefits
    nationwide each year, including as many as 6,400 prolonged lives. Using
    an alternative methodology, 3,800 lives would be prolonged by 2010.
    Under EPA's base methodology for calculating benefits, Americans would
    experience significant benefits each year by 2020, including:

          12,000 fewer premature deaths (7,000 under an alternative
    analysis),
          11,900 fewer visits to hospitals and emergency rooms for
    cardiovascular and respiratory symptoms,
          370,000 fewer days with asthma attacks, and
          2 million fewer lost work days.

        Using the alternative methodology, by 2020 Americans would
    experience 7,000 fewer premature deaths each year.
        Methodologies do not exist to quantify or monetize all the benefits
    of Clear Skies. Still, it is clear that the benefits far exceed the
    costs. EPA estimates that the health benefits we can quantify under
    Clear Skies are worth $93 billion annually by 2020--substantially
    greater than the annual costs of approximately $6.5 billion. An
    alternative approach projects annual health benefits of $11 billion,
    still significantly outweighing the costs. The Agency estimates an
    additional $3 billion in benefits from improving visibility at select
    National Parks and Wilderness Areas. These estimates do not include the
    many additional benefits that cannot currently be monetized but are
    likely to be significant, such as human health benefits from reduced
    risk of mercury emissions, and ecological benefits from improvements in
    the health of our forests, lakes, and coastal waters.
        Clear Skies would achieve most of these benefits by dramatically
    reducing fine particle pollution caused by SO2 and NOx
    emissions, which is a year-round problem. Of the many air pollutants
    regulated by EPA, fine particle pollution is perhaps the greatest
    threat to public health. Hundreds of studies in the peer reviewed
    literature have found that these microscopic particles can reach the
    deepest regions of the lungs. Exposure to fine particles is associated
    with premature death, as well as asthma attacks, chronic bronchitis,
    decreased lung function, and respiratory disease. Exposure is also
    associated with aggravation of heart and lung disease, leading to
    increased hospitalizations, emergency room and doctor visits, and use
    of medication.
        By reducing NOx emissions, Clear Skies also would reduce ozone
    pollution in the eastern part of the country and help keep ozone levels
    low in the western portion of the country. Ozone (smog) is a
    significant health concern, particularly for children and people with
    asthma and other respiratory diseases who are active outdoors in the
    summertime. Ozone can exacerbate respiratory symptoms, such as coughing
    and pain when breathing deeply, as well as transient reductions in lung
    function and inflammation of the lung. Ozone has also been associated
    with increased hospitalizations and emergency room visits for
    respiratory causes. Repeated exposure over time may permanently damage
    lung tissue.
        Current estimates indicate that more than 350 counties fail to meet
    the health-based fine particle and ozone standards. As a result, 45
    percent of all Americans live in counties where monitored air was
    unhealthy at times because of high levels of fine particles and
    ozone.\2\ Clear Skies, in combination with existing control programs,
    would dramatically reduce that number, as shown in Figure 1. In areas
    where attainment is not projected, Clear Skies would assist those areas
    in addressing the air quality problems. Even counties currently
    measuring attainment would benefit from the reductions under Clear
    Skies. Throughout the West, Clear Skies would hold emissions from power
    plants in check, preserving clean air in high-growth areas and
    preventing degradation of the environment, even as population and
    electricity demand increase.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \2\These numbers are based on the most current monitoring data
    available to EPA. It is more current than the data that was available
    at the time that EPA conducted its analyses last year of the Clear
    Skies Act of 2002. The newer data confirms that we have serious air
    quality problems in many counties, but it shows improvement--fewer
    counties violating the ozone and fine particle standards. As a result,
    compared to last year's analyses, the new analyses may show less
    residual non-attainment (counties out of attainment in 2010 and 2020).

        Clear Skies would also reduce mercury emissions from power plants.
    EPA is required to regulate mercury because EPA determined that mercury
    emissions from power plants pose an otherwise unaddressed significant
    risk to health and the environment, and because control options to
    reduce this risk are available. Mercury, a potent toxin, can cause
    permanent damage to the brain and nervous system, particularly in
    developing fetuses when ingested in sufficient quantities. People are
    exposed to mercury mainly through eating fish contaminated with
    methylmercury.
        Mercury is released into the environment from many sources. Mercury
    emissions are a complex atmospheric pollutant transported over local,
    regional, national, and global geographic scales. EPA estimates that 60
    percent of the mercury falling on the U.S. is coming from current man-
    made sources. Power generation remains the largest man-made source of
    mercury emissions in the United States. In 1999, coal-fired power
    plants emitted 48 tons of mercury (approximately 37 percent of man-made
    total). These sources also contribute 1 percent of mercury to the
    global pool.
        Mercury that ends up in fish may originate as emissions to the air.
    Mercury emissions are later converted into methylmercury by bacteria.
    Methylmercury accumulates through the food chain: fish that eat other
    fish can accumulate high levels of methylmercury. EPA has determined
    that children born to women who may have been exposed to high levels
    may be at some increased risk of potential adverse health effects.
    Prenatal exposure to such levels of methylmercury may cause
    developmental delays and cognitive impairment in children. Clear Skies
    will require a 69 percent reduction of mercury emissions from power
    plants.
        In addition to substantial human health benefits, Clear Skies would
    also deliver numerous environmental benefits. For example, under Clear
    Skies, we project that 10 million fewer pounds of nitrogen would enter
    the Chesapeake Bay annually by 2020, reducing potential for water
    quality problems such as algae blooms and fish kills. In fact, the
    Chesapeake Bay States, including NY, VA, MD, PA, DE, WV and DC,
    recently agreed to incorporate the nitrogen reductions that would
    result from Clear Skies legislation as part of their overall plan to
    reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay. Clear Skies would also accelerate
    the recovery process of acidic lakes, virtually eliminating chronic
    acidity in many Northeastern lakes. For decades fish in the Adirondacks
    have been decimated by acid rain, making many lakes completely
    incapable of supporting populations of fish such as trout and
    smallmouth bass. The Acid Rain Program has allowed some of these lakes
    and the surrounding forests to begin to recover; Clear Skies would
    achieve additional needed reductions. Clear Skies would also help other
    ecosystems suffering from the effects of acid deposition by preventing
    further deterioration of Southeastern streams. Finally, Clear Skies
    would improve visibility across the country, particularly in our
    treasured national parks and wilderness areas.
        Clear Skies is designed to ensure that these public health and
    environmental benefits are achieved and maintained. By relying on
    mandatory caps, Clear Skies would ensure that total power plant
    emissions of SO2, NOx and mercury would not increase over
    time. This is a distinct advantage over traditional command-and-control
    regulatory methods that establish source-specific emission rates but
    which allow total emissions to increase over time. Like the Acid Rain
    Program, Clear Skies would have much higher levels of accountability
    and transparency than most other regulatory programs. Sources would be
    required to continuously monitor and report all emissions, ensuring
    accurate and complete emissions data. If power plants emit more than
    allowed, financial penalties are automatically levied without the need
    for an enforcement action. More importantly, every ton emitted over the
    allowed amount would have to be offset in the following year, ensuring
    no net environmental harm. This high level of environmental assurance
    is rare in existing programs; Clear Skies would make it a hallmark of
    the next generation of environmental protection.
    Reasonable Costs and Energy Security for Consumers and Industry
        The President directed us to design Clear Skies to meet both our
    environmental and our energy goals. Under Clear Skies, electricity
    prices are expected to remain at or below current levels over the next
    decade. Our extensive economic modeling of the power industry looked at
    a broad array of factors to gauge the effects of Clear Skies on the
    energy industry and they all show that cleaner air and energy security
    can go hand-in-hand.
        Clear Skies would maintain energy diversity. With Clear Skies, coal
    production for power generation would be able to grow by almost 10
    percent from 2000 to 2020 while air emissions are significantly
    reduced. EPA's extensive economic modeling for Clear Skies demonstrates
    that the proposal's emission reductions would be achieved primarily
    through retrofitting controls on existing plants. Clear Skies's
    timeframe and certainty enable the power sector to meet aggressive
    emission reduction targets without fuel switching. This is important
    not only to power generators and their consumers who want to continue
    to rely on our most abundant, reliable, affordable and domestically
    secure source of energy, but also to other consumers and industries
    whose livelihoods could be hurt by a rise in natural gas prices. Our
    analysis shows that Clear Skies would not cause a significant increase
    in natural gas prices.
        Under Clear Skies by 2010, about three-fourths of U.S. coal-fired
    generation is projected to come from units with billions of dollars of
    investment in advanced SO2 and/or NOx control equipment
    (such as scrubbers and Selective Catalytic Reduction, which also
    substantially reduce mercury emissions). In 2020, the percentage is
    projected to rise to 85 percent. Cost effective strategies and
    technologies for the control of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides
    emissions exist now, and thanks in good part to the Clear Skies market-
    based system improved methods for these pollutants, and for mercury,
    are expected to become increasingly cost-efficient over the next
    several years. In fact, the Institute of Clean Air Companies forecasts
    that the U.S. markets for most technology sectors will remain fairly
    strong, adding momentum to the air pollution control technology
    industry. We expect that the Clear Skies Act will provide great
    benefits to American jobs in the engineering and construction
    industries.
        One of the key reasons Clear Skies would be cost-effective is its
    reliance on cap-and-trade programs. Like the Acid Rain Program upon
    which it is based, Clear Skies would give industry flexibility in how
    to achieve the needed emission reductions, which allows industry to
    make the most cost-effective reductions and pass those savings on to
    consumers. Power plants would be allowed to choose the pollution
    reduction strategy that best meets their needs (e.g., installing
    pollution control equipment, switching to lower sulfur coals, buying
    excess allowances from plants that have reduced their emissions beyond
    required levels). Like the Acid Rain program, Clear Skies includes
    banking provisions, enabling companies to save unused allowances for
    future use. Banking creates a tangible, quantifiable, economic
    incentive to decrease emissions beyond allowable levels, which EPA
    projects will result in significant early benefits due to over-
    compliance in the initial years, particularly for SO2. It
    also leads to gradual emissions reductions over time, and therefore a
    less disruptive transition to tighter emission controls needed to
    address lingering problems. Based on past experience under the Acid
    Rain Program, by placing a monetary value on avoided emissions, Clear
    Skies would stimulate technological innovation, including efficiency
    improvements in control technology, and encourage early reductions.
    Assistance to State and Local Governments
        Under the current Clean Air Act, State and local governments face
    the daunting task of meeting the new fine particle and ozone standards.
    Clear Skies would substantially reduce that burden. By making enormous
    strides toward attainment of the fine particle and ozone standards,
    Clear Skies would assist State and local governments in meeting their
    obligation under the Clean Air Act to bring areas into attainment with
    these health-based standards, and provide Americans with cleaner air.
        Clear Skies' assistance to States goes beyond ensuring that power
    plants will reduce their emissions. Clear Skies relies on a common-
    sense principle if a local air quality problem will be solved in a
    reasonable timeframe by the required regional reductions in power plant
    emissions, we should not require local areas to adopt local measures.
    Under Clear Skies, areas that are projected to meet the ozone and fine
    particles standards by 2015 as a result of Clear Skies would have a
    legal deadline of 2015 for meeting these standards (i.e., will have an
    attainment date of 2015). These areas would be designated
    ``transitional'' areas, instead of ``nonattainment'' or ``attainment,''
    and would not have to adopt local measures (except as necessary to
    qualify for transitional status). They would have reduced air quality
    planning obligations and would not have to administer more complex
    programs, such as transportation conformity, nonattainment New Source
    Review, or locally based progress or technology requirements in most
    circumstances.

               III. IMPROVING THE CLEAN AIR ACT WITH CLEAR SKIES

        Clear Skies would improve the Clean Air Act in a number of ways. It
    would build on the proven portions of the Clean Air Act like the
    national ambient air quality standards and the Acid Rain Program and
    reduce reliance on complex, less efficient requirements like New Source
    Review for existing sources. The mandatory emissions caps at the heart
    of Clear Skies guarantee that reductions will be achieved and
    maintained over time. In contrast, uncertainties with respect to
    regulatory development, litigation, and implementation time make it
    difficult to estimate how quickly and effectively current regulations
    would be implemented under the current Clean Air Act. The level of
    SO2 and NOx reductions we expect over the next decade with
    Clear Skies legislation could not be achieved under the existing Act.
    After that, we know that Clear Skies would achieve significant
    reductions, while both the timing and level of reductions under the
    current Clean Air Act are unclear.
    Early Reductions
        One of the major reasons we need Clear Skies now is that adoption
    of Clear Skies would provide greater protection over the next decade
    than the traditional regulatory path. The Clear Skies Act will result
    in significant over-compliance in the early years, particularly for
    SO2, because sources are allowed to bank excess emissions
    reductions. For reasons described below, our analyses indicate that the
    cumulative SO2 and NOx emissions reductions achieved by
    Clear Skies over the next decade would not be achieved in the same
    timeframe under the current Clean Air Act. Last year's EPA estimates
    project that power plants would emit 35 million fewer tons of NOx and
    SO2 over the next decade under Clear Skies than they would
    under the current Clean Air Act this more than doubles the reductions
    otherwise expected and would ensure significantly larger human health
    and environmental benefits. Our analysis suggests that the amount of
    pollution controls that the industry will have to install under Clear
    Skies over the next decade will stretch the limits of available labor
    and other construction resources, but can in fact be accomplished while
    maintaining energy reliability and continuing the downward trend in
    electricity prices.

    Legislation Now Is Better than Regulation Followed by Years of
            Litigation
        Even if Clear Skies is not passed by Congress, power plants will be
    required to reduce their emissions of SO2, NOx and mercury.
    There is no more cost effective way than Clear Skies to meet the
    requirements of the current Clean Air Act or to achieve our public
    health and environmental goals. We know that, absent new legislation,
    EPA and the States will need to take a number of regulatory actions,
    although it is unclear now when the requirements will come into effect
    or what their control levels will be.
        Clear Skies has several benefits over the regulatory scheme that
    will otherwise confront power generators. Clear Skies is designed to go
    into effect immediately upon enactment. Power plants would immediately
    understand their obligations to reduce pollution and would be rewarded
    for early action. As a result, public health and environmental benefits
    would begin immediately. Given Clear Skies' design, it is unlikely that
    litigation could delay the program (particularly since Congress would
    decide the two most controversial issues the magnitude and timing of
    reductions). In contrast, under the current Clean Air Act, power plants
    would not know what their obligations would be until after EPA and
    States started and completed numerous rulemakings.
        Past experience suggests that litigation delays on the regulatory
    path are likely. Our experience with two cap-and-trade programs the
    legislatively created Acid Rain Trading Program and the
    administratively created NOx SIP Call illustrates the benefits of
    achieving our public health and environmental goals with legislation
    rather than relying solely on existing regulatory authority.
        Though we project a great deal of benefits will arise from
    implementation of the NOx SIP call, the journey has been difficult and
    is not yet over. The NOx SIP call was designed to reduce ozone-forming
    emissions by one million tons across the eastern United States. The
    rulemaking was based on consultations begun in 1995 among States,
    industry, EPA, and nongovernmental organizations. A Federal rule was
    finalized in 1998. As a result of litigation, one State was dropped and
    the 2003 compliance deadline was moved back for most States. Most
    States are required to comply in 2004, although two States will have
    until 2005 or later. Meanwhile, sources in these States continue to
    contribute to Eastern smog problems. Although the courts have largely
    upheld the NOx SIP Call, the litigation is not completely over.
    Industry and State challenges to the rules have made planning for
    pollution control installations difficult, raised costs to industry and
    consumers, and delayed health and environmental benefits.
        In contrast, reductions from the Acid Rain Program began soon after
    it passed (even before EPA finalized implementing regulations). There
    were few legal challenges to the small number of rules EPA had to issue
    and none of the challenges delayed implementation of the program. The
    results of the program have been dramatic and unprecedented. Compliance
    has been nearly 100 percent. Reductions in power plant SO2
    emissions were larger and earlier than required, providing earlier
    human health and environmental benefits. Now, in the ninth year of the
    program, we know that the greatest SO2 emissions reductions
    were achieved in the highest SO2-emitting States; acid
    deposition dramatically decreased over large areas of the eastern
    United States in the areas where they were most critically needed;
    trading did not cause geographic shifting of emissions or increases in
    localized pollution (hot spots); and the human health and environmental
    benefits were delivered broadly. The compliance flexibility and
    allowance trading has reduced compliance costs by 75 percent from
    initial EPA estimates.
        [See 2001 Acid Rain Program Progress Report submitted for the
    record.]
        It is clear from this example that existing regulatory tools often
    take considerable time to achieve significant results, and can be
    subject to additional years of litigation before significant emissions
    reductions are achieved. Under this scenario, there are few incentives
    to reduce emissions until rules are final and litigation is complete,
    posing potentially significant delays in achieving human health and
    environmental benefits.
        The Clean Air Act contains several provisions under which EPA will
    be required to impose further emission controls on power plants in
    order to allow States to meet the new national ambient air quality
    standards (NAAQS) for PM2.5 and ozone. For example, Section
    126 of the Clean Air Act provides a petition process that States can
    use to force EPA to issue regulations to reduce emissions of
    SO2 and NOx from upwind sources, including power plants. A
    number of States have indicated that they intend to submit Section 126
    petitions in the near future. However, compared to Clear Skies, this
    approach will almost certainly involve years of litigation and
    uncertainty about reduction targets and timetables.
        Additional reductions are required from power plants through the
    regional haze rule's BART (Best Available Retrofit Technology)
    requirements and forthcoming mercury MACT (maximum achievable control
    technology) requirements. EPA is required to propose by the end of 2003
    a MACT standard for utility mercury emissions that must be met, plant-
    by-plant, by every coal-fired utility with unit capacity above 25
    megawatts. EPA is required to finalize this rule by the end of 2004.
    The Act generally gives sources 3 years within which to comply with
    MACT standards. This compliance obligation could be delayed by a court
    if EPA's rule is challenged.
        Because these regulations will be the product of separate Federal,
    State and judicial processes, comparable health and environmental
    protection is likely to cost more under the current Clean Air Act than
    under Clear Skies. EPA estimates that a comprehensive, integrated
    approach relying on cap-and-trade programs could reduce costs by one
    fourth as compared to the regulatory approach achieving comparable
    emission reductions. These cost savings would be passed on to the
    public through lower electricity prices and greater profitability to
    investors and owners of electric generation.

    New Source Review
        Some have suggested that Clear Skies is an attempt to undermine the
    Clean Air Act. This is simply not true. To achieve the next generation
    of environmental progress, we must build on the successful provisions
    in laws that have served us well and learn from those provisions that
    have not served us well, or have had only limited success. New Source
    Review (NSR) is an example of a program that EPA and stakeholders have
    long recognized is not working well.
        There is a misconception that the principle goal of the NSR program
    is to reduce emissions from power plants. This is simply incorrect.
    Reducing emissions from power plants is the principle goal of Clear
    Skies. The NSR program is triggered only when facilities emitting large
    amounts of air pollution are built, and when modifications at these
    facilities result in significant increases in air pollution. The NSR
    program is not designed to result in nationwide reductions of air
    pollution from power plants. When it comes to reducing harmful air
    emissions from power plants, Clear Skies would accomplish more than
    NSR.
        Clear Skies would significantly modify the NSR program for power
    plants, but contain some important backstops. We expect that existing
    power plants would not have to go through NSR for modifications. New
    sources would no longer have to go through the entire NSR process, but
    some aspects of the process would still apply. Although we believe that
    with a tight cap on emissions, new sources will always install good
    controls, we did not want to run the risk that a new source would be
    uncontrolled. Therefore, as a backstop, Clear Skies would require all
    new power plants to meet New Source Performance Standards that are set
    in the statute.
        In addition, new power generators locating within 50 km of a Class
    I area (e.g., national parks or wilderness areas) would still be
    subject to the current NSR requirements for the protection of those
    areas. Finally, new power plants will also have to meet the current NSR
    requirements that they will not cause or contribute to a violation of
    the national ambient air quality standards.

                           IV. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

        Because of the lessons learned over the last decade, there is
    increasing support for legislation such as Clear Skies that would
    significantly reduce and cap power plant emissions and create a market-
    based system to minimize control costs. From environmental groups to
    coal companies, there is increasing broad-based support demonstrating
    that multipollutant legislation is a preferable path to cleaner air.
    Such an approach would address an array of air pollution concerns
    associated with power generation--including fine particles, smog,
    mercury deposition, acid rain, nitrogen deposition, and visibility
    impairment--at lower cost and with more certainty than currently
    allowed by the Clean Air Act.
        The Acid Rain Program is widely accepted as one of the most
    effective air pollution programs ever adopted and has consequently
    attracted worldwide attention and emulation. The Program's track record
    has encouraged Congress to consider broader applications of cap-and-
    trade programs to address multiple air pollutants. The common elements
    of the proposals considered by Congress are mandatory caps on emissions
    of multiple pollutants from the power generation sector, implemented
    through allowance trading programs modeled after the Acid Rain Program.
        There is no better time for Congress to be considering
    multipollutant legislation. President Bush has indicated that Clear
    Skies is his top environmental priority. The number of proposals being
    considered by Congress also indicates a consensus behind the basic idea
    of a multipollutant cap-and-trade approach. The Large Public Power
    Council, Edison Electric Institute, Adirondack Council, and numerous
    individual utilities have all expressed support for the scope and
    framework of Clear Skies. If legislation passes quickly, we will begin
    achieving emissions reductions and related health benefits now.
    Congress needs to act now so that we do not lose a decade's worth of
    health and environmental benefits from reducing fine PM pollution,
    smog, acid deposition, nitrogen deposition, and regional haze. Further,
    as EPA continues to implement additional forthcoming regulations under
    the existing framework of the Act, the likelihood of our ability to
    pursue an integrated program diminishes and with it diminish the
    numerous advantages that I have delineated today of an approach like
    Clear Skies.
        Legislation is also needed now to help States with their air
    quality planning and provide incentives for industry innovation, which,
    in turn, would lower costs and emissions. Such incentives are
    particularly compelling this year as we approach the task of reducing
    mercury emissions from the power industry. If designed correctly,
    legislation could provide the incentive that spurs technological
    innovation. When stringent yet flexible mechanisms exist, substantial
    technological improvements and steady reductions in control costs can
    be expected to follow.
        Congress obviously has much to consider as it weighs Clear Skies
    and other multipollutant proposals this year. We anticipate and welcome
    a rigorous and healthy debate on these issues.
                                     ______

     Responses of Hon. Christine Todd Whitman to Additional Questions from
                                Senator Jeffords

        Question 1. In the last 4 years, has EPA performed any modeling or
    possess information which suggests that lower levels of emissions of
    SOx, NOx, and mercury, than would be achieved by implementation of the
    Clear Skies legislation are feasible and could be achieved with less
    than a $5 billion annual incremental cost beyond the cost of Clear
    Skies? If so, please provide the Committee with the data, including
    parsed model runs, and a summary of the data.
        Response. During the development of the Clear Skies Act, the
    Administration looked at a number of policy options, analyzing air
    quality and economic impacts as well as the feasibility of installing
    the pollution controls necessary to comply with the environmental
    requirements. Last year, EPA provided to Congress model outputs, parsed
    model runs and summary data for each of the multi-pollutant scenarios
    that were analyzed for both air quality and economic impacts during the
    development of Clear Skies. EPA also provided the model outputs, parsed
    model runs and summary data for the economic and air quality analysis
    of Clear Skies that was done last year.
        One of these modeling runs used during the development of Clear
    Skies is more stringent and has an incremental cost of less than $5
    billion in annual costs. However, EPA's analysis of engineering, labor
    and capital markets for the power sector indicates that the ability of
    this sector to install the level of pollution controls required to meet
    the first phase requirements of this developmental scenario would
    significantly stretch the available labor resources beyond that which
    is feasible. This analysis raises concerns over the feasibility of
    requiring more pollution reduction than Clear Skies does in its first
    phase and/or installing controls sooner than the bill does. Notably, a
    program faced with a labor shortage would also be much more expensive,
    a consideration modeled in the work we supplied Congress. Additionally,
    we have found that the timing of the requirements in Clear Skies is an
    important part of ensuring the pollution controls can be financed.
    Enclosed are summary results of our engineering study and financial
    analysis of Clear Skies for your further consideration (Attachments 1
    and 2).

        Question 2. Please provide the Committee with any analysis,
    including parsed IPM runs and summaries, that the Agency has performed
    regarding S. 3135, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2002. The requested
    analysis does not need to represent the official Administration
    position, the Committee would like to receive whatever analysis EPA has
    performed using taxpayers dollars
        Response. EPA analyzed S. 3135, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2002,
    using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) for sulfur dioxide
    (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and mercury emissions. EPA
    analyzed the CO2 provisions in S. 3135 using an off-line
    analysis that relied on the same methodology that EPA used in 2001 to
    respond to a request from Senators Smith, Voinovich and Brownback to
    analyze CO2 components of various multi-emission power plant
    policy options. We have provided the modeling outputs and off-line
    spreadsheet analysis to your staff. EPA does not have parsed IPM runs
    for S. 3135.
        Question 3. If I understood Mr. Holmstead's testimony correctly, he
    indicated that it is possible that there could be a 1.5 percent cost
    differential or somewhat more than that for implementation of S. 485
    versus S. 3135, Senator Carper's bill. Please explain how larger
    emissions reductions, including carbon dioxide, could be accomplished
    with so little difference in cost.
        Mr. Holmstead did not testify about the cost differential between
    S. 485 and S. 3135. However, EPA's analysis of S. 3135 projected annual
    costs at about $5.6 billion and $9.0 billion in 2010 and 2020,
    respectively. This is approximately 53 percent and 38 percent greater
    than the cost of Clear Skies for those same years (based on 2002
    analyses).

        Question 4. Please provide and compare a list of the assumptions
    used in the IPM models already run, or in the process of being run,
    specifically on the Clear Skies legislative proposal for three
    different periods: the period prior to introduction of S. 2815, the
    period prior to introduction of S. 485, and the period following
    introduction of S. 485.
        Response. Extensive documentation regarding the Integrated Planning
    Model (IPM), including every model assumption, can be found on EPA's
    website (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm/index.html). For the
    year prior to introduction of S. 2815 until July 2003, EPA used
    modeling results from IPM V.2.1 to analyze the projected economic
    impacts of that bill. A copy of the main documentation report for that
    version of the model is enclosed (Attachment 3). Beginning in July
    2003, EPA has used an updated version of the model in its analysis of
    S. 485, the Clear Skies Act of 2003. The documentation of this latest
    version of IPM (version 2.1.6) is also enclosed (Attachment 4). This
    documentation explains all the changes in the current version of IPM
    from the earlier version. A summary of all the changes can be found at
    the beginning of the document. Since introduction of S. 2815, IPM has
    undergone a routine update, and various IPM assumptions were revised.
    This version of IPM (V.2.1.6) was used to model S. 485 and continues to
    be used today. Documentation for the updated version of IPM can also be
    found on the website.

        Question 5. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 created strict
    attainment deadlines in Federal law because the States were having
    difficulty in controlling regional pollution and achieving healthy air.
    Why does the Clear Skies legislation propose to loosen and extend
    attainment deadlines, since that would assure that more people will
    live in areas with unhealthier air longer than required by the current
    Act?
        Response. If enacted, Clear Skies would deliver early human health
    and environmental benefits almost immediately compared to the current
    Clean Air Act. Asserting otherwise shows a fundamental misunderstanding
    of how a cap and trade program works. The cap and trade program would
    provide incentives to start reducing emissions immediately. EPA
    projects that two-thirds of the counties currently out of attainment
    with the fine particle standards would come into attainment by 2010 as
    a result of Clear Skies, the proposed non-road heavy duty diesel rule,
    and existing State and Federal control programs. Without Clear Skies,
    only half of those counties are projected to attain in 2010 based on
    existing control programs and the non-road diesel rule.
        Areas that are projected to meet the ozone and PM 2.5 standards by
    2015 as a result of Clear Skies and other programs would have a legal
    deadline of 2015 for meeting these standards (i.e., will have an
    attainment date of 2015). These areas would be designated
    ``transitional'' areas.

        Question 6. Would Clear Skies require additional legislation in the
    future to obtain greater reductions in mercury beyond the roughly 70
    percent in 2018 (or later) mandated in the bill, even if good science
    indicates more aggressive action is needed to protect public health?
        Response. Clear Skies would require approximately a 70 percent
    decrease in mercury emissions, as it does for SO2 and NOx.
    It is an expansion of the acid rain trading program, and, as in the
    acid rain trading program, the Congress holds the sole power to adjust
    the caps. Due to the scientific and technological uncertainties
    regarding mercury, Section 410 of the Clear Skies Act would require a
    comprehensive assessment of the Phase II cap for mercury, along with
    those for SOx and NOx by 2009. This assessment is to include an
    examination of the latest scientific and technical information related
    to mercury effects, environmental chemistry, and control approaches.
    Based on that assessment, the Administrator could submit any
    recommendations to Congress to revise the Phase II caps.

        Question 7. Please provide a table comparing the proposed national
    emission standards for affected units in section 481 of S. 485 with the
    emissions performance required by permit for each new or modified--
    boiler or integrated gasification combine cycle plant, gas-fired
    combustion turbine, and any combustion turbine that is not gas-fired or
    coal-fired, for the last 5 years.
        Response. The Clear Skies Act calls for significant reductions due
    to the two-phased caps. Thus, we believe that the section 481 values
    are redundant in the long run. The review of available limited permit
    data demonstrates a range of values both below and above levels set in
    section 481.
        The EPA does not maintain a comprehensive record of the details of
    permit information for new and modified sources. Information is
    available on some, but not all, facilities receiving permits over the
    past 5 years. A partial compilation for new source permits for new or
    modified boilers, integrated gasification combine cycle plants, gas-
    fired combustion turbines, and combustion turbines is contained in the
    National Coal-Fired Utility Projects Spreadsheet. This compilation of
    information, supplied by all 10 EPA Regions, about new utility projects
    was updated in May 2003, and can be accessed at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/
    catc/products.html#misc.

        Question 8 What are the average emission rates for NOx and SOx for
    new coal-fired power plants permitted over the last 5 years? What are
    the averages for modifications at existing coal-fired power plants
    permitted in the same period?
        Response. In general the NSR program has been delegated to States,
    therefore EPA does not track all permit applications for new or
    modified coal plants. See question 7 for more details. Based on the
    permit information available, new coal plants have been permitted at
    NOx levels ranging from approximately 0.07 lbs/mmBtu to 0.15 lbs/mmBtu
    and SO2 levels ranging from approximately 0.13 lbs/mmBtu to
    0.30 lbs/mmBtu. We do not have comparable information on permits for
    modifications at existing power plants.

        Question 9 Does EPA disagree with the Abt Associates peer-reviewed
    study done a couple of years ago which estimates about 30,000 people
    are dying prematurely every year right now from power plant pollution?
    If so, why?
        Response. EPA agrees that fine particle pollution contributes to
    premature deaths as well as other serious health effects. That is why
    this Administration is seeking the fastest method for achieving air
    quality improvements over the next decade. EPA has not analyzed the
    total number of premature deaths attributable each year to fine
    particle pollution, or the total contribution of a particular sector to
    health effects associated with air pollution. Instead of calculating
    total premature deaths from fine particles, EPA'S analyses have focused
    on quantifying the incremental benefits of adopting particular
    regulatory strategies. In 1995, EPA projected the human health benefits
    of Title IV of the Clean Air Act (the Acid Rain Program). That analysis
    suggested that, by 2010, the Title IV program alone would prevent
    approximately 10,000 premature deaths each year. While the Acid Rain
    program has been very successful in reducing harmful emissions from
    utilities, Clear Skies will provide even further health protection. We
    have estimated that Clear Skies reductions by 2020 could prolong as
    many as 14,100 lives annually (while an alternative approach would set
    this figure at 8,400 lives prolonged annually.)

        Question 10. In a recent EPA briefing on Clear Skies for Senate
    staff, an Agency presenter admitted that mercury reductions would be
    greater in 2008 under the mercury MACT rule than under Clear Skies.
    Please explain how Clear Skies mercury controls would not lead to an
    increased health risk to newborns and pregnant women, compared to
    completely carrying out the mercury MACT standards.
        Response. Thank you for the opportunity to clarify this much-
    discussed issue. The utility MACT rulemaking process and the underlying
    analyses are not yet completed, and therefore we cannot state
    definitively whether the ultimate mercury emission reductions under
    MACT would be greater or less than those that would be achieved under
    Clear Skies.
        After the proposed rule is published in December, 2003, the Agency
    will assess the public comments submitted before publishing the final
    rule in December, 2004. The statute requires compliance 3 years
    following promulgation (i.e., December, 2007), although States have the
    ability to delay the requirement for a year (i.e., until December,
    2008). While the statutory timing for the implementation of the utility
    MACT is prior to the Clear Skies' Phase I cap date, it is almost
    certain that the utility MACT will be litigated. Therefore, the timing
    is highly uncertain.
        In contrast, under Clear Skies we believe that mercury emission
    reductions will begin as soon as Clear Skies is enacted because the
    cap-and-trade system provides firms certainty in their business
    planning and an incentive to bank allowances in the early years of the
    program. What's more, since Clear Skies is a multi-pollutant approach
    to emissions reductions, some mercury reductions will be achieved as a
    co-benefit from the installation of SO2 and NOx controls.
    Clear Skies will therefore likely result in earlier emissions
    reductions than the MACT rule, reducing the health risk to newborns and
    expectant mothers sooner than MACT.

        Question 11. Does Clear Skies eliminate the residual risk
    provisions of Section 112 with respect to mercury and electric
    utilities? Also, would these statutory provisions be eliminated or
    deferred for other hazardous air pollutants under the Clear Skies
    legislation? Please justify.
        Response. Under the Clear Skies Act of 2003 (CSA), the
    Administrator would conduct a comprehensive assessment of the Phase II
    caps pursuant to section 410 (Evaluation of Limitations) and then
    recommend to Congress whether changes to the Phase II caps are
    appropriate. This evaluation and possible recommendation and the
    required reduction in mercury emissions make the provisions of section
    112(f) of the Clean Air Act as they apply to mercury from electric
    utility generating units unnecessary. However, the section 112(f)
    provisions for hazardous air pollutants other than mercury, would
    remain in effect under the Clear Skies Act of 2003.
        Clear Skies logically modifies the deadlines for addressing
    residual risk from non-mercury hazardous air pollutants from the power
    sector to run from the start of the allowance requirement of section
    472 rather than within 8 years of issuance of a MACT standard under the
    current provisions of the Clean Air Act. This modification will allow
    EPA to have sufficient emissions and exposure data after SO2
    and NOx allowance compliance strategies are in place to make the
    necessary determination of the need for a residual risk standard for
    these non-mercury hazardous air pollutants.

        Question 12. Please explain how Clear Skies will achieve greater
    reductions in 2018 in mercury emissions than would be achieved by MACT
    requirements in the present law.
        Response. EPA entered a settlement agreement to propose the Utility
    MACT in December, 2003, after which the Agency will consider public
    comments submitted on the proposal and issue a final rule in December,
    2004. Until the entire rulemaking process is complete, it is not
    possible to determine whether the CSA would obtain mercury reductions
    greater than or less than the Utility MACT. We can be fairly certain,
    however, that Clear Skies will achieve reductions sooner than would be
    achieved under MACT. Due to Clear Skies' incentives for early
    reductions, reductions would start occurring as soon as the legislation
    passed. With MACT, the final rule won't be issued for another 15
    months, and then with litigation uncertainties, it is impossible to
    know when emissions reductions might begin.

        Question 13. As I understand it, the National Park Service, Federal
    land managers, and EPA have documented that air pollution degrading
    visibility and causing acid deposition in the National Parks and
    Wildlife Refuges is coming from power plants many miles away, sometimes
    more than 50 or 100 miles away. For example, dozens of power plants
    impact the Smoky Mountains National Park, but only one falls within the
    31 mile/50 kilometer perimeter of the park. That's the limit contained
    in the Clear Skies proposal for use as a test to determine whether
    better control technology is required. Would Clear Skies allow new
    power plants to be sited or old ones reconstructed in places that could
    degrade visibility or cause increased deposition in the National Parks?
        Response. Clear Skies would require individual new facilities to
    have, at a minimum, modern pollution controls as specified in section
    481 (National Emission Standards for Affected Units) of the Clear Skies
    Act. Subsequent review by the Federal Land Manger of facilities within
    the 50km limit would ensure that the potential impacts of well
    controlled new sources do not result in significant local effects in
    Class I areas.
        Clear Skies would benefit the ecosystems and air quality in
    national parks across the country, especially in the eastern States.
    The reductions in acid rain, eutrophication, mercury deposition and
    regional haze from Clear Skies would improve these treasured resources.
    By addressing air pollution from a regional perspective, the transport
    of air pollution into national parks and wilderness areas would be
    reduced.
        An examination of our emissions projections for the Class I area in
    your question--the Great Smoky Mountain National Park (GSMNP)--serves
    to illustrate the strength of the Clear Skies approach to these issues.
    Using air quality modeling approaches in our 2003 analysis, we
    forecasted emissions with and without Clear Skies for the GSMNP air
    shed, which stretches over several hundred kilometers in the eastern
    US. There are substantial overall reductions in SO2 and NOx
    emissions affecting this air shed as compared to the base case that EPA
    modeled (which assumes continued implementation of existing control
    programs, but no new Federal or State regulatory control programs).
    Under the base Case, EPA projects that emissions of SO2 in
    the Southern Blue Ridge Airsheds that encompass the GSMNP will be
    approximately 5 million tons in 2020. Clear Skies will drop these acid
    rain-causing pollutants to less than 2 million tons in 2020.
        NOx emissions will also drop dramatically under Clear Skies. We
    project that Clear Skies will reduce emissions of NOx in these airsheds
    from approximately 1 million tons in the 2020 base case down to
    approximately 200,000 tons in 2020. We believe that Clear Skies will
    result in approximately $600 million of benefits in the Great Smokies
    in 2010 and $2 billion of benefits in the Great Smokies in 2020. And,
    this figure does not include the many benefits for which we cannot
    assign a monetary value. These projected improvements include all
    forecasted growth in new sources. Clear Skies would provide the
    regional reductions necessary to improve visibility and ecosystem
    protection of our National Parks and Wilderness areas.

        Question 14. What measurable effects will Clear Skies have on
    episodically acidic lakes and streams in the U.S.?
        Response. When analyzing the effects of Clear Skies on lakes and
    streams, EPA focused on the Northeast and the Southeast the areas of
    the country with most acid-sensitive aquatic ecosystems. The results of
    our 2003 analysis are presented below.
        From this analysis, we found a small improvement in reducing the
    percentage of southeastern streams that are episodically acidic. This
    is primarily due to the long period of time that Southeastern soils
    hold decades of acid loadings that continue to be released, even as
    loadings are reduced. Thus, in the Southeast, Clear Skies would slow
    the deterioration of stream health expected under the Base Case and
    would prevent additional streams from becoming chronically acidic. In
    the Northeast, there is an initial appearance of a perverse effect of
    more lakes characterized as episodically acidic, but actually most of
    these lakes have shifted from the more serious chronically acidic
    category to episodically acidic. In fact, Clear Skies is projected to
    eliminate chronic acidity in Adirondack region lakes, whereas more than
    1 in 10 is chronically acidic in the Base Case in 2020.

        Question 15. How will conformity work in the transitional areas
    proposed to be created in Clear Skies?
        Response. Under the Clear Skies Act, transportation conformity
    (dealing with highways and mass transit) and general conformity
    (dealing with all other Federal actions) would not apply to areas
    designated as transitional for a specific pollutant (for example, ozone
    or particulate matter), since these areas would not be designated as
    nonattainment for that pollutant. Conformity requirements would apply
    only in nonattainment and maintenance areas. If an area is designated
    transitional for one pollutant and nonattainment for another pollutant,
    then conformity would apply for the nonattainment pollutant but not for
    the transitional pollutant. This approach is based on the common-sense
    principle that we should not require local areas to adopt local
    measures if their air quality problem will be solved in a reasonable
    timeframe by the reductions in power plant emissions required by Clear
    Skies.

        Question 16. If the pending NSR enforcement actions against power
    plants were all decided in EPA's favor, the targeted facilities would
    make significant reductions of SOx and NOx. Under the models run for
    Clear Skies, how much would each of these targeted plants probably
    reduce annual emissions compared to the reductions they would make if
    the NSR enforcement actions were decided in EPA's favor?
        Response. Because many of the enforcement actions are on-going, EPA
    is unable to estimate the emission reductions that would be obtained at
    all of the plants currently subject to enforcement action. Furthermore,
    the enforcement actions that have been settled have resulted in a range
    of reductions and timing, making the outcome of future cases difficult
    to project. Aggregate emissions from the power sector under Clear Skies
    would be reduced by 70 percent beyond today's emission levels. Under
    Clear Skies, total emissions are capped at this 70 percent reduction
    level indefinitely. NSR enforcement does not provide you with that
    guarantee because even if you have the most stringent standard at every
    plant, if the number of plants keeps growing, the amount of emissions
    can grow as well.

        Question 17. What would be the approximate emissions performance
    for NOx and SOx for each of the power plants covered by the Agency's
    NSR enforcement actions if all the cases were decided in EPA's favor?
        Response. See answer to Question 16.

        Question 18. If all power plants defined as ``affected units''
    under Clear Skies were required to apply BACT for the relevant
    technology and fuel source today, what would be the total NOx and SOx
    emissions from those sources?
        Response. EPA has not performed this analysis of emission
    reductions. But command and control regulations (such as BACT) have
    consistently been shown to be far more costly at achieving a given
    emission reduction target than a cap and trade approach (such as Clear
    Skies).

        Question 19. Administration witnesses have testified, and the
    Agency's 90-day report on NSR, indicate that the application of NSR to
    new sources works well and effectively. Why is it necessary in Clear
    Skies to eliminate it or replace it with something else?
        Response. Given the tight caps and the backstop of technology
    standards for new power plants, we believe that the significant
    governmental and industry resources involved in the NSR program would
    no longer be needed for power plants if Clear Skies were to pass. The
    Clear Skies legislation provides clear advantages over the NSR program.
    The caps in Clear Skies guarantee emissions are capped indefinitely;
    under NSR total emissions can still increase. The market-based
    mechanisms in Clear Skies allow firms the most flexibility to reduce
    emissions at the lowest cost possible. The program has inherent
    incentives for firms to begin reducing emissions early. The
    administrative burden of Clear Skies is much lower than that of NSR.
    Clear Skies provides the regulatory certainty that plant managers need
    when planning for the future. The tight caps in Clear Skies would
    provide an increasing economic incentive for new sources, as well as
    existing sources, to install good pollution controls.
        The caps would also provide economic incentives to drive
    technological innovations. To ensure that new power plants put on good
    controls in the early years of the program, Clear Skies also sets
    technology-based standards that new sources would be required to meet.
    Clear Skies also maintains protections for Class I areas from power
    plants locating within 50 km of their boundaries. States are still
    required to ensure that constructions of new sources are consistent
    with plans for attaining the applicable National Ambient Air Quality
    Standards. Protection for other local concerns can still be addressed
    by State programs because Clear Skies does not preempt State authority
    to impose more stringent controls.

        Question 20. According to current EPA material, in 2010, Clear
    Skies would bring 34 counties into attainment for the fine particle
    standard and 10 counties into attainment for the ozone standard.
    According to EPA, the existing schedule under the Clean Air Act will
    require areas to achieve attainment by 2009. Based on EPA modeling, how
    many counties will not be in attainment in 2010 for either the
    PM2.5 or the ozone NAAQS primarily because of power plant
    emissions and how many people will be living in them?
        Response. Our most recent analysis projected that, in 2010, Clear
    Skies would bring an additional 42 counties into attainment for the
    fine particle standard and an additional 3 counties into attainment for
    the 8-hour ozone standard beyond the number projected under the Base
    Case (i.e., existing control programs plus the proposed non-road diesel
    rule). Absent additional State or Federal regulation, 124 counties
    nationwide (with a population of 77.1 million people) would have
    monitoring data showing that they were not attaining one or both of
    these standards in 2010. This widespread non-attainment cannot wholly
    be attributed to any single source category, but it is likely that the
    power generation and mobile sectors play a dominant role in most
    locations.
        Our current model results do not allow us to quantify the
    contribution of power plant emissions to nonattainment. But given that
    power plants are responsible for about two-thirds of the emissions
    inventory for SO2 and about one-fifth for NOx, and that
    large portions of nonattainment are due to regional transport, it is
    clear that power generation plays a significant role in projected
    nonattainment throughout the eastern 35 States and DC. For this part of
    the country, absent additional State or Federal regulation, 109
    counties (with a population of 53.9 million people) would have
    monitoring data showing that they were not in attainment with one or
    both of these standards.

        Question 21. Since Clear Skies eliminates the final MACT standard
    for mercury, what provisions in the Administration proposal will ensure
    that toxic hot spots do not result from using a cap-and-trade system
    for mercury emissions?
        Response. Clear Skies would reduce nationwide mercury emissions by
    70 percent from current levels. As occurred under the Acid Rain
    Program, and as the Clear Skies modeling indicates, under a cap-and-
    trade system the largest emission reductions tend to take place in the
    areas with the largest emissions. Therefore, sources with the most
    mercury emissions are expected to reduce emissions the most. The
    Administration proposal is not expected to create areas of increased
    mercury deposition. Additionally, if a State decides that local
    conditions warrant, it can impose more stringent controls.

        Question 22. If the Administration is certain that Clear Skies will
    be helpful in achieving attainment on schedule, then why is it
    necessary in that legislation to delete (or diminish) State authorities
    such as section 126 that are intended to assure attainment?
        Response. We believe that the first phase reductions in NOx, SOx
    and Hg in Clear Skies would push the power generation sector about as
    far and fast as is technically and economically feasible. The
    cumulative reductions from Clear Skies would be greater over the next
    decade than would be likely under current CAA authorities, including
    section 126.

        Question 23. EPA's estimates say that in 20 years Clear Skies would
    leave the Smokies with more than 2.5 times the amount of nitrogen
    deposition than would allow recovery of the ecosystem. When would
    recovery of the Smokies ecosystem occur under Clear Skies?
        Response. EPA's 2003 analysis shows that in 20 years, Clear Skies
    will reduce nitrogen deposition in the Smokies region between five and
    20 percent. The Agency believes this would help the area's acid-
    sensitive streams and nitrogen-sensitive forests recover. However, we
    are technically unable to model the environmental benefits of this
    reduction in nitrogen deposition at this time.

        Question 24. Does the public and do companies' shareholders have a
    right to know about air emissions that may cause long-term damage like
    greenhouse gases?
        Response. The Agency takes seriously its role to provide quality
    data to the public and the scientific community. Greenhouse gas (GHG)
    information is provided in several of EPA outreach initiatives,
    reports, and on-line sources. For the power sector specifically, in
    EPA's annual Emission Scorecard we publish plant-level emissions data
    for SO2, NOx and CO2 from the Acid Rain Program
    reported to us as required under section 821 of the Clean Air Act
    Amendments. Another EPA product, E-Grid, provides a data base of plant-
    level emissions that is designed to be highly user-friendly
    (www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/egrid). Finally, the US GHG Emission and Sinks
    Report, published every April, is another source of information on
    aggregate GHG emissions for those seeking information on emissions data
    for economic sectors of interest. Copies of EPA's latest Emissions
    Scorecard and GHG Emissions and Sinks Report are enclosed (Attachments
    5 and 6).
        Other agencies are also working to make sure that greenhouse gas
    emissions information is readily available to the public. The
    Department of Energy has maintained a voluntary registry for emissions
    reductions since 1997. In 2001, 228 participants in 25 different
    industries or services reported 1,705 projects to the registry. The DOE
    is currently working with a large interagency team, of which EPA is an
    active participant to improve this registry, per President's Bush's
    February 2002 directive. The Energy Information Administration's annual
    US inventory of GHG emissions (published as required by section 1605(a)
    of the Energy Policy Act of 1992) is available at http://
    www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/index.html

        Question 25. Under Clear Skies legislation if enacted, would States
    be able to retain their existing NSR programs for application to
    electric power plants? If so, would a State be eligible for SIP credits
    if the application of that States NSR program resulted in more
    stringent requirements for power plants than are required under Clear
    Skies?
        Response. Yes, States would have the option of retaining their
    existing NSR programs as they apply to electric power plants. Nothing
    in the Clear Skies legislation would preempt existing State authority
    in this regard. Moreover, there is nothing in Clear Skies that would
    prohibit a State from receiving proper credit in its ozone or other
    attainment demonstration for any State Implementation Plan requirements
    beyond Clear Skies.

        Question 26. Your testimony says that the new transitional areas
    allowed under Clear Skies would have a legal deadline of 2015 to meet
    the national air quality standards. But, the legislation says that EPA
    will review their attainment status by the middle of 2016, and if
    they're in nonattainment, then sometime in the next 4 years the area
    must submit a revised SIP. So it appears an area could easily get an
    extra four or 5 years until 2021 before they have to adopt actual
    controls. Do the current laws attainment deadlines have to be extended
    6 to 10 years because the caps in Clear Skies are too weak and too
    late?
        Response. Clear Skies creates a transitional designation for those
    areas that, based on modeling done after Clear Skies, are projected to
    come into attainment with the power plant reductions from Clear Skies
    and other Federal measures. In addition, if Clear Skies is projected to
    improve an areas air quality, but not enough to bring it into
    attainment, those areas can be designated transitional if, by the end
    of 2004, the State submits and EPA approves additional local measures
    and a demonstration that those local measures will bring the area into
    attainment by 2015. If an area does not meet the criteria for
    transitional classification, then the attainment date will be governed
    by the existing Clean Air Act.
        The only areas that would be eligible for a 2015 attainment date
    are those that have a combination of Federal and local measures that
    are projected to bring them into attainment. Although the legal
    deadline for attaining the ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS would be 2015 for
    these transitional areas, as a practical matter, we expect many of
    these areas to attain prior to 2015.
        The provisions specifying what happens if an area does not attain
    by 2015 have been created as a backstop in case actual circumstances
    and monitoring do not match the modeling projections. These provisions
    are similar to the current provision of the Act contained in section
    179(d) of the Clean Air Act, which requires a State with an area that
    does not attain the standard by the legal deadline to submit another
    State Implementation Plan to EPA within 1 year.

        Question 27. According to your testimony, when Clear Skies is fully
    implemented, 85 percent of the coal-generated power will be from
    facilities that will have advanced pollution control technology in both
    the east and west. Please identify those facilities that will not have
    advanced pollution control technology and the approximate share of the
    total emissions inventory for each pollutant that they will as a group
    represent.
        Response. The facilities that IPM projects to install advanced
    pollution control technology can be identified using the IPM parsed
    output files available on our website (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/
    epa-ipm/results2003.html). This website includes an explanation of the
    various types of pollution controls that sources may install in the
    model to meet the caps under Clear Skies, with additional details are
    provided in the documentation (refer to QJ4). Notably, facilities that
    have ``advanced pollution control technology'' for SO2, NOx
    and/or mercury are using scrubbers, SCRs and activated carbon
    injection, respectively. Virtually all coal-fired units control
    particulates through highly effective electrostatic precipitators or
    baghouses. If these units do not also have the above advanced controls,
    they are called ``uncontrolled'' for SO2, NOx and mercury.
    After the implementation of the Clear Skies Act, the uncontrolled coal-
    fired plants are projected to emit just under 1.7 million tons of
    SO2 (out of 4.26 million tons for all coal sources), 640
    thousand tons of NOx (out of 1.5 million tons for all coal sources),
    and 7.2 tons of mercury (out of 22.2 tons for all coal sources). It is
    important to note that IPM best predicts the types of units making
    changes and is not able to accurately predict every unit's future
    situation, even though the parsed runs show individual units that do
    not install these advanced controls. Results generally show that
    smaller, old, less efficient units that are less likely to have
    advanced controls.

        Question 28. When Clear Skies is fully implemented, will any coal-
    fired power plant operate without pollution controls?
        Response. Under the Clear Skies Act of 2003, by 2020, about 80
    percent of coal-fired capacity will come from plants with advanced
    pollution controls (scrubbers, SCR and/or activated carbon injection).
    We expect more controls to be installed after 2020, but believe that
    the extent of additional controls is subject to a great deal of
    uncertainty. As noted previously, almost all power plants operate with
    technology to control particles. However, as with other multi-pollutant
    policy options using a cap-and-trade, market approach (as well as under
    the current Clean Air Act acid rain provisions), some coal-fired
    sources would operate without ``advanced pollution controls'' as we
    have defined them (See QJ27), where lower cost emissions reductions are
    available from other facilities and emission allowances are purchased
    to meet compliance needs. Clear Skies modeling, which takes into
    account that some sources may operate without advanced pollution
    controls, still shows substantial benefits from Clear Skies
    implementation throughout the country and widespread advanced pollution
    controls in place.

        Question 29. What are the current emissions characteristics of the
    coal gasification combined cycle power plants in the U.S., and at any
    of those abroad for which EPA has data?
        Response. There are two coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
    units in the country. One is Tampa Electric Company's Polk Power
    Station Unit #1 IGCC Power Plant, a 250 MW unit that is located near
    Tampa, FL. The other is PSI Energy's Wabash River Generating Station
    Unit #1, a 262 MW plant in West Terre Haute, IN.
        Using data in EPA's Emissions Scorecard 2001 (which includes
    emissions data for power plants in the Acid Rain Program--see
    www.epa.gov/airmarkets/emissions/score01/index.html), the following
    emissions data is provided for year 2001:
        Polk unit: SO2 emissions 0.15 lbs/mmBtu
        NOx emissions 0.10 lbs/mmBtu
        Wabash River unit: SO2 emissions 0.14 lbs/mmBtu
        NOx emissions 0.17 lbs/mmBtu
        Mercury emissions estimates for these plants in 1999 (based on 1999
    EPA Mercury ICR data):
        Polk unit: 61.9 lbs/yr
        Wabash: 133.6lbs/yr
        EPA does not have data for overseas coal gasification plants.

        Question 30. The NOx SIP Call starts reductions in May 2004. Why
    does the Clear Skies NOx cap start in 2008, rather than 2010, as the
    caps do for SOx and mercury?
        Response. Sources are largely expected to meet the Phase I NOx
    requirements of Clear Skies by expanding their utilization of existing
    control equipment (equipment that has been, or will be, installed in
    response to regional NOx reduction programs such as the NOx SIP call )
    from the 5 month ozone season to year round. In contrast, EPA analysis
    projects that it would be necessary for sources to install additional
    control technology to meet the SO2 and Hg caps of Clear
    Skies. As a result, it is possible to begin the NOx reductions of Clear
    Skies earlier, because the potential for straining the capital, labor,
    and equipment markets for control equipment construction is lower than
    it would be for SO2 and Hg emissions. In addition, the NOx
    reductions of Clear Skies are needed earlier than those of
    SO2 and Hg in order to meet the ozone attainment deadlines,
    which occur earlier than those for particulate matter.
        It is important to note that Clear Skies provides incentives for
    early reductions, so it is likely that plants will begin reducing
    emissions soon after the passage of the legislation. In contrast,
    compliance with the NOx SIP call was prolonged by a lengthy rulemaking
    process and lawsuits postponing implementation until 6 years after the
    rule was finalized.

        Question 31. In EPA'S written testimony, it says that the
    legislation will still require new power plants to meet the current NSR
    requirements that they will not cause or contribute to a violation of
    the NAAQS. However, the legislation actually says that the source must
    demonstrate that the emissions increase from the unit will not cause,
    or contribute to, air pollution in excess of any NAAQS. That's a
    different standard. Why is it necessary to change the existing test in
    law?
        Response. EPA did not intend to suggest in its written testimony
    that the Clear Skies legislation would result in a change to the
    existing test for determining whether a new source would cause or
    contribute to a violation of the NAAQS. EPA does not believe that this
    language in the Clear Skies Act would be interpreted in our
    implementation, or by a court, as setting a different standard than do
    the current NSR requirements.

        Question 32. Are there any electric generating units in the US that
    have never installed pollution control equipment through the New Source
    Review process? If so, please identify those facilities.
        Response. Yes, there are electric generating units in the US that
    have never installed pollution control equipment through the New Source
    Review (NSR) program. EPA does not have a comprehensive listing of
    which power plants have installed control equipment as a result of this
    programs. Because there are multiple programs that may apply to a
    particular plant--with New Source Review (NSR) requirements applying
    only to new (or certain modified) sources--we are unable to attribute a
    particular installation of a control technology to any one program.
        While some power plants control their emissions using advanced
    SO2 or NOx pollution control equipment (i.e., end-of-the-
    stack equipment), many do not. Some plants have not been subject to a
    regulatory program that requires the installation of specific
    technology or sets a performance standard. Others have been subject to
    a program, like the Acid Rain Program, which allows flexibility in
    choosing the most cost effective compliance strategy (e.g. add-on
    controls, fuel switching, efficiency improvements). Of those plants
    that operate with advanced pollution control devices, many installed
    that equipment for reasons other than NSR requirements. Unit level
    information on NOx and SO2 controls for Acid Rain units can
    be found in Appendix B at: www.epa.gov/airmarkets/emissions/score01/
    index.html

        Question 33. Under current law, areas will need to attain for the
    fine particulate matter standard by 2009, or they could, under certain
    limited circumstances get an extension to 2014. According to a scenario
    in the 1997 impact assessment to accompany the PM2.5 NAAQS,
    getting close to attainment using power plant reductions would require
    60 percent reduction in SOx emission from those sources. In what year
    would Clear Skies likely reach a 60 percent reduction in SOx emissions
    from power plants?
        Response. In the 1997 assessment which accompanied the revision of
    the PM NAAQS, the analysis provided a broad implementation scenario for
    the purpose of projecting both the costs and benefits of alternative
    NAAQS levels. In this analysis, EPA assumed that implementation of the
    new fine particle NAAQS would lead to an initial reduction of SOx
    emissions from the electric power industry by lowering the SOx
    emissions caps under the Title IV trading and banking program in order
    to reduce the formation of sulfate particles. In one scenario, the
    Agency assumed that power plant SOx emissions would be reduced by 60
    percent to 3.58 million tons. Under Clear Skies, power plants emissions
    are capped at a lower level of 3 million tons in 2018. Due to the
    ability to bank early reductions under Clear Skies, this emissions cap
    is projected to be achieved after the 2020 time period, but this is
    only because emissions would be lower than the permissible cap level in
    the early years of the program.
        Just to clarify, if all areas are designated non-attainment by the
    end of 2004, areas will have an attainment date no later than 2009,
    with possible extensions to 2014. In certain circumstances, areas can
    be given two additional 1-year extensions to meet the standard.

        Question 34. What is the impact on the zone 2 States of the
    addition of Kansas and Oklahoma? Please justify the inclusion of these
    States in zone 2. What is the impact of the change on non-attainment in
    areas east of these two States?
        Response. By placing Kansas and Oklahoma under the Zone 2 NOx
    emissions cap, the effective NOx emission rate will change slightly
    from 0.24 lbs/mmBtu to 0.21 lbs/mmBtu in 2020. Different control levels
    are appropriate in the eastern and western sections of the country
    because each faces different types of environmental problems. NOx
    reductions in the East are needed to address ozone and fine particulate
    matter nonattainment issues, as well as acid rain and eutrophication of
    water bodies. NOx reductions in the West are primarily aimed at
    improving visibility in national parks and ensuring that the West
    continues to meet ozone and fine particulate matter standards. (The
    exception is California which has some counties currently in non-
    attainment.) Kansas and Oklahoma were grouped with the western States
    because they are not believed to be significant contributors to
    nonattainment in eastern States.

        Question 35. Please submit the cost-benefit analysis that EPA has
    performed on a proposal that has been described to the Committee: a 2
    million ton cap on sulfur dioxide emissions by 2013. Please describe in
    detail the costs and benefits of this target and timetable, and include
    a comparison of costs and benefits of this alternative with the costs
    and benefits of the SOx target and timetable included in the Clear
    Skies Act.
        Response. Over the last 2 years, EPA has focused on analysis of
    strategies to reduce SO2, NOx, and mercury emissions and not
    strategies addressing a single pollutant, especially in the more
    detailed analyses that have been done. Cost-benefit analyses of multi-
    pollutant approaches limiting emissions from power plants require
    specification of the cap levels and deadlines for all pollutants.
        Although during the development of the Clear Skies Initiative EPA
    performed a preliminary analysis of a multi-pollutant scenario in which
    the SO2 cap of 2.25 million tons in 2010 was specified
    (along with caps for NOx and mercury) for use in internal
    Administration discussions, we have not performed an analysis of a
    stand-alone 2 million ton SO2 cap. As explained in QJ1,
    however, there were several feasibility concerns raised by seeking such
    stringent reductions in the first phase of a multipollutant program.

        Question 36. Under Clear Skies, it seems possible that the new so-
    called transitional areas allowed in the proposed legislation would
    have until 2020 before they would need to have a SIP adopted and
    implemented. That's well after the 2009 or 2010 attainment date that
    the Act requires following designation. Under S. 485, what's the latest
    possible date at which a transitional area would be absolutely required
    to have a SIP adopted demonstrating attainment?
        Response. SIPs are meant to contain those State control measures
    that are necessary to bring an area into attainment based on
    projections of future air quality and economic activity. If EPA
    modeling projects that transitional areas come into attainment with
    Federal control measures and State control measures that are already
    adopted, then there is no need to have additional State control
    measures to bring the area into attainment, and thus nothing new is
    required for an approvable SIP.
        Under Clear Skies, if an area that is forecast to attain the
    standard does not do so by the end of 2015, it then would be required
    to be designated as nonattainment and to submit a SIP demonstrating
    attainment no later than June 2020. The process for these areas is
    similar to that under the existing CAA section 179(d) provision for
    areas that fail to attain the standard by their attainment dates.
        For additional information on transitional areas, please see the
    answer to Question 26.

        Question 37. Is it accurate to say that low-income families and the
    elderly, who generally have less access to health care, suffer
    disproportionate harm from ambient air pollution? If so, what does the
    Agency's estimate is the aggregate and per capita quantified harm
    experienced by this population from ambient air pollution?
        Response. Certain groups may be more susceptible to harm from
    ambient air pollution. Older people are especially vulnerable to air
    pollution because (1) the immune system weakens with age, (2) chronic
    conditions (e.g., chronic bronchitis or heart attacks) may be more
    likely to develop in those who have experienced a lifetime of elevated
    exposure, and (3) older people are more likely to have pre-existing
    heart and lung conditions that may be exacerbated by elevated short-
    term exposures to fine particles and ozone.
         To the extent that individuals with lower incomes experience
    higher rates of some cardiovascular and respiratory diseases than other
    groups, they may experience more adverse effects, as exposure to air
    pollution can exacerbate these existing conditions.
        EPA has not analyzed the per capita number of premature deaths or
    other health impacts attributable each year to ambient air pollution
    for the entire population or for certain subpopulations. Rather, EPA
    has focused on quantifying the benefits of adopting particular
    regulatory strategies. This gives us an indication of the potential
    magnitude of the benefits that could be achieved by reducing air
    pollution under a given regulatory strategy. For example, EPA's
    analysis of the benefits of the 2003 Clear Skies Act projects
    substantial benefits for older Americans. By 2020, Clear Skies would
    prevent 14,100 premature deaths each year. (An alternative methodology
    for calculating health benefits projects approximately 8,400 premature
    deaths prevented each year). In addition, EPA projected that each year,
    by 2020, Americans would also experience approximately 30,000 fewer
    visits to hospitals and emergency rooms, 23,000 fewer non-fatal heart
    attacks, and 8,800 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis. Many of these
    benefits would accrue to older Americans.
        EPA has not apportioned the benefits of Clear Skies or other
    regulatory strategies to people of different income classifications. We
    do not have an example of the magnitude of benefits that could be
    achieved by reducing air pollution for low-income families.
        Question 38. Please compare the reductions in total tons of sulfur
    dioxides and nitrogen oxides emissions required by the Clean Air Act
    Amendments of 1990 from 1990 to 2010 and those required under the Clear
    Skies legislation from 2004 to 2024.
        The CAA amendments of 1990 achieved considerable reductions from
    the power sector. EPA's data and analysis suggests that SO2
    emissions will have gone from 15.7 million tons in 1990 to roughly 9.7
    million tons in 2010, achieving a reduction of 38 percent. Some of the
    SO2 reductions are attributable to various State rules. For
    NOx, emissions will have gone from 6.7 million tons in 1990 to 3.9
    million tons in 2010 (42 percent reduction). NOx reductions are
    attributable to the amendments of 1990, the NOx SIP call, the OTC
    trading program, and various State rules.
        With Clear Skies, reductions of SO2 and NOx for the
    first 2 decades after enactment would be even greater than those
    projected to be achieved from 1990 through 2010. From 2000 to 2020, EPA
    projects that, with Clear Skies, SO2 emissions would
    decrease by 62 percent (from 11.2 to 4.2 million tons) and NOx
    emissions would decrease by 66 percent (from 5.1 to 1.7 million tons).
    In addition, mercury emissions would decrease by 54 percent (from 48 to
    22 tons). Ultimately, Clear Skies will reduce annual emissions of these
    three pollutants by an average of 70 percent. It is difficult to
    calculate the reductions in total tons of SO2 and NOx
    because of the difficulty in determining what emissions would have been
    in the absence of Title IV and what they will be in under the Clean Air
    Act in the absence of Clear Skies.

        Question 39. In testimony, Mr. Holmstead said that the Agency
    thinks that under Clear Skies there will be less fuel-switching, from
    coal to natural gas, than under the current Clean Air Act. How much
    fuel switching does the Administration project will occur between now
    and 2020 if there are no statutory changes in the Clean Air Act?
        Response. Past EPA analysis indicates that industry makes different
    compliance strategy decisions when all emission reduction requirements
    are known up front, as with Clear Skies. This contrasts to situations
    when the requirements are identified over time and compliance with some
    is required before all are specified, as under the current Act. EPA
    performed an analysis of a hypothetical ``business-as-usual'' case that
    was similar to the Straw Proposal EPA was evaluating in Fall 2001 in
    order to show this comparison. This past analysis indicated that fuel
    switching is a more likely compliance option when industry learns the
    specifics of requirements over time rather than up-front, even when
    control requirements are similar. Uncertainties created by litigation
    even further complicate the second scenario.
        Thus, compared to Clear Skies, EPA's full implementation of the
    current CAA will likely result in considerably greater disruption to
    industry including additional fuel switching and a more substantive
    impact on gas consumption and prices--due to the less efficient,
    piecemeal approach to these regulations (e.g., MACT, NSR, BART, and
    other efforts to achieve the NAAQS). However, EPA cannot predict how
    much fuel switching would occur under the current Act because that
    would depend on the specific requirements the industry will face, which
    are dependent upon numerous State and Federal rulemakings that have not
    yet been completed and are not possible to reliably predict (the above
    mentioned analysis was meant to be illustrative of the drawbacks of
    sequential rulemaking and never intended to represent how EPA and
    States would implement the existing Clean Air Act).

        Question 40. Please describe how, if at all, Clear Skies provides a
    market incentive for owners or operators of fossil-fuel power plants
    to--1) increase their efficiency (MmBtu input per MWh output), 2)
    invest in the development and siting of coal gasification combined
    cycle plants in the next 20 years.
        Response. The cap-and-trade approach of Clear Skies inherently
    encourages fuel efficiency, including investment in new generation
    technologies that are more efficient than their predecessors. A plant
    that can create a marketable product, such as electricity, steam, or
    hydrogen, using less fuel, will produce less pollution for a given
    quantity of product. As a result this efficient plant will have to
    retire less (or purchase fewer) emission allowances a valuable
    commodity for a given amount of product. Clear Skies makes it more
    expensive to emit NOx, SO2, and Hg, thereby making more
    efficient plants, such as IGCCs, more economically competitive.

        Question 41. Do you believe that the current statutory language or
    the consent decree regarding the MACT requirements for hazardous air
    pollutants could result in a rule that controls mercury only at the co-
    benefits level--in the 40-50 percent range per unit?
        Response. The current statutory language regarding mercury
    emissions from coal-fired electric utility units defines existing
    source MACT to be``. . . the average emission limitation achieved by
    the best performing 12 percent of the existing sources (for which the
    Administrator has emissions information) . . .'' There is no language
    in the settlement agreement that would change this statutory direction.
    At the current time, any appropriate subcategorization scheme and the
    assessment of the individual floors for the MACT proposal have not been
    completed. Moreover, after the utility MACT rule is proposed in
    December, 2003, EPA will evaluate public comments submitted in response
    to the proposal before finalizing the rule in December, 2004. Thus, it
    is premature to speculate whether the Utility MACT standard would
    impose controls more or less stringent than achieved as a co-benefit
    provided by imposing reductions of other pollutants.

        Question 42. Please explain how the alternative methodology for
    presenting quantified benefits of Clear Skies (i.e. $11 billion in
    2020) complies with the Agency's data quality guidelines under the Data
    Quality Act.
        Response. The purpose of the alternative methodology was to explore
    how sensitive EPA's main analytic conclusions (that the benefits
    outweigh the costs) were to changes in scientific and economic
    assumptions in the estimate of the Clear Skies approach. This type of
    sensitivity analysis is fundamental to sound and comprehensive analysis
    of major environmental issues. Notably, we have found that even with
    these alternative assumptions for key variables, the benefits outweigh
    the costs. EPA's report on its analysis of the Clear Skies approach
    summarized the foundation for this alternative estimate. EPA's data
    quality guidelines were still being developed at the time the Clear
    Skies analysis was completed, but conducting this type of sensitivity
    analysis would not have been inconsistent with the objectives of those
    guidelines for rigorous analysis.

        Question 43. When does the Agency plan to deliver to the
    participants of the utility MACT FACA/work group the modeling and
    economic analysis that was promised to them for delivery on April 11,
    2003?
        Response. The Utility MACT Working Group was a Federal advisory
    committee organized for approximately 1 year as a working group under
    the Clean Air Act Advisory Committee (CAAAC). The Working Group
    finished its work when it delivered its final report to the CAAAC on
    October 30, 2002. The meetings and report were very informative and
    helpful to the rulemaking process. The agency is committed to do all
    the necessary analysis in order to propose a rule in accordance with
    our obligations under the Clean Air Act and Administrative Procedure
    Act. All of this analysis will be available to the public.
                                     ______

     Responses of Hon. Christine Todd Whitman to Additional Questions from
                               Senator Voinovich

        Question 1. Much has been said by critics that Clear Skies is not
    as environmentally protective as future Clean Air Act requirements
    would be--that it in fact would ``roll back the Clean Air Act.'' It
    seems to me that one of the major advantages to Clear Skies is that it
    provides both regulatory and environmental certainty--that is, the fact
    that significant emission reductions are locked in according to
    statutory deadlines in 2008, 2010 and 2018 that cannot be circumvented
    or delayed the way that most requirements are now. How would you
    respond to those critics?
        Response. Clear Skies would provide dramatic environmental benefits
    by reducing emissions from the power sector more than any control
    program any other Administration has ever proposed. It does so while
    allowing the downward trend in energy prices to continue and while
    promoting energy independence.
        It is correct that one of the most important benefits of Clear
    Skies is that it would provide both regulatory and environmental
    certainty. Clear Skies builds on the successes of the Clean Air Act and
    would significantly improve air quality across the Nation by requiring
    power plants to reduce their emissions of SO2, NOx and
    mercury by 70 percent. The mandatory emissions caps at the heart of
    Clear Skies are a sure thing and guarantee that reductions will be
    maintained over time. Because cap-and-trade programs include economic
    incentives for early action, Clear Skies would begin improving public
    health immediately. Through the end of this decade, the Clear Skies Act
    would clearly reduce power plant emissions more than would the current
    Act. Clear Skies also allows firms to make the reductions in the most
    cost-effective means possible. We do not have confidence in what would
    occur under the current Act after this decade, so we are unable to make
    a definitive statement about how reductions under the current Act would
    compare to reductions under Clear Skies in the out years. We do know,
    however, that the statutory caps in Clear Skies would provide certainty
    of reductions that could not be delayed by litigation. Without Clear
    Skies, we also know that, under the current Act, EPA and States will
    need to develop and issue regulations to reduce power plant emissions,
    but the levels and timing of these regulations are unknown. The
    uncertainties regarding regulatory development, litigation,
    implementation time, etc. under the current Act compare unfavorably
    with the certainty provided to this sector by Clear Skies.

        Question 2. The threat of fuel switching--utilities switching from
    coal based generation to natural gas based generation--is a major
    concern that must be addressed. What effect will Clear Skies have on
    this problem--will it cause more utilities to fuel switch?
        Response. The emissions reductions in the Clear Skies proposal
    would be achieved through the installation of emissions controls,
    rather than fuel switching. Under Clear Skies, 68 percent of U.S. coal-
    fired generation is projected to come from units with advanced
    SO2 and/or NOx control equipment (such as scrubbers and SCR,
    which also substantially reduce mercury emissions) by 2010. In 2020,
    the percentage is projected to rise to 81 percent. In addition, the
    regulatory certainty provided by Clear Skies would likely result in
    fewer sources using repowering as a compliance strategy in the face of
    the complex requirements of the existing CAA.
        We believe that fuel switching is more likely under the current
    Clean Air Act than under Clear Skies. Past EPA analyses have indicated
    that industry makes different decisions about how to make specified
    emission reductions when it knows all of the requirements up front
    (which would happen with Clear Skies) as compared to a situation where
    it learns about the requirements over time and has to start meeting
    some requirements without knowing specifics of future additional
    requirements (which would happen under the current Act). These past
    analyses have indicated that fuel switching is a more likely compliance
    option when industry learns the specifics of requirements over time
    rather than at once even when the control requirements are similar.
    Thus, we believe that, compared to Clear Skies, EPA's full
    implementation of the current CAA will likely result in considerably
    greater disruption to industry including additional fuel switching and
    a more substantive impact on gas consumption and prices--due to the
    less efficient, piecemeal approach to these regulations and litigation
    uncertainty (e.g., MACT, NSR, BART, and other efforts to achieve the
    NAAQS). EPA cannot predict how much fuel switching would occur under
    the current Act because that would depend on the specific requirements
    the industry will face, and those depend on numerous State and Federal
    rulemakings that have not yet been completed.

        Question 3. How will the Clear Skies Act affect electricity prices
    and natural gas prices?
        Response. EPA analysis projects that Clear Skies would not
    significantly impact electricity prices or gas prices. Forecasted
    trends would continue with or without Clear Skies. Clear Skies gives
    industry the certainty and flexibility it needs to make the most cost-
    effective investment decisions for reducing pollution. Costs are
    sometimes passed on to electricity ratepayers in the form of higher
    electricity prices, and modeling projects prices to be 2 percent higher
    in 2020 with Clear Skies compared to the base case. Also, Clear Skies
    ensures that coal-fired generation remains one of the cheapest methods
    for generating electricity, and does not have a major impact on natural
    gas supplies. Natural gas prices are projected to be less than 2.5
    percent higher in 2020 with Clear Skies compared to the base case.

        Question 4. Critics of Clear Skies have claimed that it would be
    possible to have greater emission reductions in a faster timetable
    during Phase I of Clear Skies. As evidence of this claim, these critics
    have pointed to a straw proposal that I understand was a staff proposal
    that leaked out of EPA during Administration consideration of the Clear
    Skies Initiative. How would you respond to those critics?
        Response. The Administration discussed a number of policy options
    in the process of developing the Clear Skies proposal, including a
    straw proposal that EPA management presented as a way of initiating the
    inter-agency discussions necessary to develop an Administration
    position. EPA no longer believes that the straw proposal is feasible.
    In large part, this is because EPA's analysis of engineering, labor and
    capital markets for the power sector indicates that their ability to
    install the level of pollution controls required to meet the Phase I
    requirements of Clear Skies would significantly stretch the available
    labor resources. The Administration proposed different emissions caps
    and timing in Phase I of Clear Skies out of consideration for the
    engineering and construction markets ability to respond to the added
    demand for the installation and operation of emission control
    equipment.

        Question 5. If our goal is to reduce harmful emissions from power
    plants--should we be focusing our attention on NSR or on Clear Skies?
        Response. There is no doubt that we should be focusing on Clear
    Skies if our goal is to bring cleaner air to Americans as quickly and
    cost-effectively as possible. Clear Skies would bring vast improvements
    in air quality due to its substantial reductions in power plants
    emissions. Clear Skies sets forth a mandatory program that would
    dramatically reduce and permanently limit power plant emissions.
        The dramatic emission reductions required by Clear Skies--70
    percent reductions in SO2, NOx and mercury--will drive new
    power plants and virtually all large existing power plants to install
    good controls. Our modeling projects that 80 percent of the coal-fired
    generation in 2020 would come from units with advanced SO2
    and/or NOx controls.
        In contrast, New Source Review (NSR) does not require emission
    decreases--it prohibits emission increases and will be largely
    redundant when Clear Skies is fully implemented. The NSR program is not
    designed to result in nationwide reductions of air pollution from power
    plants. NSR is triggered only when facilities emitting large amounts of
    air pollution are built, or when modifications at large facilities
    result in significant increases in air pollution. In fact, NSR cannot
    be expected to decrease significantly nationwide emissions because
    facility operators will avoid the type of project that makes the
    facility subject to the program. In addition, given the nationwide cap
    on power plant SO2 emissions, compliance with NSR should not
    reduce national SO2 emissions.

                                     ______

     Responses of Hon. Christine Todd Whitman to Additional Questions from
                                 Senator Thomas

        Question 1. As you know the mercury characteristics of coal burned
    in western power plants is very different than coal in other regions.
    How does the Phase 1 mercury cap, which will supposedly be achieved
    through co-benefits, take into consideration these regional
    distinctions in coal chemistry?
        Response. Different types of coal may achieve different mercury
    reductions from units with PM, SO2 and NOx controls
    installed. Recent test data indicates that the installation of NOx and
    SO2 controls on plants burning bituminous coals resulted in
    greater mercury reduction on average than plants burning subbituminous
    coals or lignite coals. Likewise, the test data indicated that
    installation of NOx and SO2 controls on plants burning
    subbituminous coals resulted in somewhat greater mercury removal than
    plants burning lignite coals. On average, units burning lignite coal
    showed the least mercury removal of the three coal types. However,
    there is limited data on mercury removal from lignite coal.
        In an effort to recognize the difference in mercury control among
    coal types, Clear Skies attempted to help equalize the cost of reducing
    mercury emissions across coal types--and the easiest way to do this was
    to adjust the allocation scheme. The adjustment factors of 1 for
    bituminous, 1.25 for sub-bituminous, and 3 for lignite coals reflect
    this variation in coal types. We believe the adjustment factors we used
    are directionally correct based on the test data currently available.
    EPA and others are currently collecting more information, and expect
    that this information will inform the debate on allocations further. We
    look forward to further discussion on this and other subjects.

        Question 2. The Administration has incorporated the western
    SO2 program adopted by the Western Regional Air Partnership
    (WRAP) into Clear Skies. Given that the WRAP program does not call for
    significant SO2 reductions until the 2013-2018 timeframe,
    what co-benefits are being used to calculate the 2010 mercury cap in
    the west? Specifically, from where does the Agency specifically see
    those reductions being realized?
        Response. Western sources would be required to meet NOx and
    SO2 reductions under Phase I of Clear Skies. Clear Skies was
    designed to allow much of the first phase mercury reductions to be
    achieved through installation of NOx and SO2 controls
    (selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and scrubbers, respectively)
    because such controls also remove mercury.
        Under EPA's updated 2003 modeling results, much of the Phase I
    mercury reductions needed to meet the 26 ton cap would be achieved
    through the installation of such controls. A small portion of the Phase
    I reductions would likely need to be achieved through mercury-specific
    control technologies (e.g., activated carbon injection). With the
    mercury cap, we would expect the power industry to optimize their NOx
    and SO2 controls for the greatest mercury removal. Because
    Clear Skies uses a cap-and-trade approach to reducing emissions,
    sources have an incentive to install controls that achieve reductions
    of both mercury and one or both of the other pollutants, to engineer
    these controls for greater mercury removal and to operate the plants
    that achieve the greatest mercury co-benefit removal a little more than
    they might without a mercury cap. Further, Clear Skies contains a
    safety valve price in order to protect against unexpected volatility in
    the mercury market.

        Question 3. As it affects the Western U.S., help the Committee walk
    through the calculations of the Phase 1 mercury cap that is supposed to
    be achieved through co-benefits. The Phase 1 national cap of 26 tons
    represents a 46 percent reduction. If western mercury emissions of 4.3
    tons were reduced by that amount it would result in a western cap of
    2.0 tons. However, if all of the available sources in the west were
    scrubbed at an unrealistic level of 100 percent, the remaining western
    emissions would be 3.61 tons, much above the Phase I cap. Thus western
    sources would have no choice but to buy allowances in the market in
    order to comply. How, does this represent a realistic view of co-
    benefits?
        Response. We are uncertain how some of the numbers contained in the
    question were derived. We would be happy to have EPA staff explore this
    issue with Senator Thomas' staff .
                                   __________
      Statement of Hon. Glenn McCullough, Jr., Chairman, Tennessee Valley
                                   Authority

        Thank you, Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee. On behalf
    of the TVA Board of Directors and our employees, I would like to thank
    you for the opportunity to appear today to discuss the Tennessee Valley
    Authority's views on clean air and more specifically S. 485, the Clear
    Skies Act of 2003. In our role as both steward of the environment and
    provider of electricity in the Tennessee Valley, TVA is uniquely
    positioned to comment on clean air issues facing our region and the
    Nation, and we appreciate the opportunity to share these views today.
        TVA, and 158 power distributors, serves the 8.3 million people of
    the Tennessee Valley by producing affordable, reliable electricity
    while supporting sustainable economic development and maintaining
    stewardship of the region's natural resources. TVA's unique mission
    gives us the opportunity to see first hand the importance of finding
    the best balance between fueling a sustainable and vibrant economy and
    enhancing the quality of our natural environment. The TVA Board works
    every day to find that balance as it relates to many issues, and no
    aspect of that balance is of greater importance than the issue you are
    considering today--clean air.
        TVA was created by Congress in 1933 to enhance the quality of life
    in the Tennessee Valley region. We do that by providing flood control
    and maintaining navigation on the Tennessee River, the nation's fifth
    largest river system, and by generating and transmitting electricity in
    the seven-State area that is the Tennessee Valley. TVA meets the power
    needs of the region's homes, businesses, schools, and industries
    through 158 power distributors and by directly serving 62 large
    industries. TVA's electric power system includes 59 coal-fired units at
    11 plant sites, three nuclear plants, 29 hydro-power plants, six
    combustion-turbine plants, three wind turbines, and 15 solar
    installations. The President's National Energy Policy recognizes the
    importance of diversity in energy supply including new emphasis on
    promoting nuclear energy, clean coal technologies, and renewable energy
    sources. TVA's mix of fossil, nuclear, hydroelectric and renewable
    generation not only helps ensure the reliability of the TVA system but
    also illustrates the value and benefits of such diversity for our
    Nation.
        TVA is committed to its stewardship of the environment in the
    Tennessee Valley. I am proud to say that TVA has reduced sulfur dioxide
    (SO2) emissions by 76 percent since 1977. In addition, we
    have reduced ozone-season emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx) by 50
    percent in the past 8 years. Through 2001 TVA has invested more than $3
    billion to achieve these reductions even as the population, the economy
    and the energy needs of the Valley continue to grow at rates faster
    than the national average.
        Since 1990, the population in the Tennessee Valley has grown by
    more than 15 percent, gross regional product by nearly 50 percent, and
    demand for electricity by more than 10 percent. In the past decade TVA
    has achieved historically high levels of operational performance and
    reliability in our power system and maintained affordable power rates--
    all while reducing emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide from
    our power plants. These actions demonstrate TVA's commitment to air
    quality and to finding the right balance between fueling the region's
    economy and continuing air quality improvements.
        Today, TVA is in the midst of one of the most aggressive emissions
    reduction programs in the Nation. In November 2002, TVA approved plans
    to construct five more flue-gas desulfurization systems, or scrubbers,
    to reduce sulfur-dioxide at coal-fired power plants in Kentucky,
    Alabama, and Tennessee. These scrubbers will cost about $1.5 billion
    and collectively will reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide by an
    additional 200,000 tons per year. When construction is complete, we
    will have installed FGD scrubbers on more than half of our coal-fired
    generating capacity. This action, in combination with switching to low
    sulfur coal, will reduce TVA's total sulfur dioxide emissions by 85
    percent since 1977 (see attachment GRAPH 1).
        In addition to sulfur dioxide controls, we are investing more than
    $1.1 billion to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by constructing
    controls such as selective-catalytic-reduction systems or SCRs on 25
    coal-fired generating units. By 2005, TVA will have installed SCRs or
    similar technologies on more than 60 percent of its coal-fired
    generating capacity. These SCRs, in combination with low NOx burners
    and other controls, will reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by 75 percent
    during the ozone season (see attachment GRAPH 2). Between now and the
    end of this decade, we are committed to spending almost $1 million per
    day to accomplish these emission reductions. By 2010, TVA will have
    invested nearly $5.6 billion in cleaner air.
        We believe this investment to reduce emissions from our coal-fired
    plants will pay significant dividends while providing a cost-effective
    return on that investment to continue air quality improvements in our
    region. We also know, however, that emissions from all sources--
    stationary and mobile--must continue to be reduced. For that reason I
    am pleased today to appear before this subcommittee to endorse the
    Clear Skies Act of 2003.
        The current Clean Air Act has done much to reduce emissions and as
    a result the air quality we enjoy in this country has been improved
    significantly. However, the current Act is plagued with problems that
    could threaten the reliability and affordability of the nation's
    electric power supply. Low-cost, reliable electric power results, in
    part, from the power industry's ability to use a variety of energy
    sources, including coal. Today, the Tennessee Valley region depends on
    coal for approximately 60 percent of its power supply. Coal is also our
    nation's most abundant energy source for the future. Unfortunately,
    this critical energy resource faces a complicated web of overlapping,
    duplicative, and unnecessarily costly emission control requirements
    that do not provide the greatest return on investment and, furthermore,
    create enormous uncertainty for future investment. For example, there
    are now more than a dozen separate regulations for sulfur dioxide and
    nitrogen oxides alone and more regulations are just around the corner.
    At times, disputes over these regulations have significantly delayed
    the very air quality progress they were designed to achieve, thereby
    creating enormous uncertainty for future investment.
        TVA believes this piecemeal approach to regulating power plant
    emissions should be replaced with a set of emission reduction targets
    and timetables for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury. We
    believe that Clear Skies, a well-designed multi-emission approach, will
    continue the national trend of better air quality and provide
    additional benefits. These benefits include a streamlined regulatory
    process; sustained diversity in the nation's fuel supply; and more
    flexible, market-based mechanisms for achieving emissions reductions
    that are fair for both private and public power providers. This
    approach would also reduce compliance costs; and give the utility
    industry the certainty it needs to effectively plan and finance
    emission reductions without unduly burdening ratepayers. Such results
    have been well demonstrated by the very successful Acid Rain Program
    and they can and should be replicated elsewhere in the Act. Clear Skies
    appropriately allows continued use of SO2 and NOx allowances
    that are guaranteed under existing programs. This is an important
    feature of the bill and should be preserved because companies will be
    encouraged to reduce emissions early and achieve greater levels of
    environmental benefit.
        We do not believe, however, that Clear Skies or other market-based
    programs should replace all features of the Clean Air Act that regulate
    electric utility emissions. The National Ambient Air Quality Standards
    have been a vital part of the improvement in national air quality and
    they should be preserved as is done in Clear Skies.
        While TVA endorses the Clear Skies Act's reduction targets and
    timetables, we believe there are some provisions of the current bill
    that can be improved to achieve better overall results. Specifically,
    we urge you to ensure that the interim 2010 mercury target reflect the
    Administration's intent of reducing mercury to levels achievable via a
    cap and trade system through co-benefits with sulfur dioxide and
    nitrogen oxide control technologies. This would allow TVA and other
    utilities that have already reduced mercury through investments in
    sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide reductions to realize credit for
    their early actions. Otherwise, some may be required to install very
    expensive and as yet unproven mercury-specific controls, such as carbon
    injection and finishing baghouses.
        Before I close, I want to emphasize that Clear Skies is a very
    aggressive proposal. As I mentioned earlier, TVA knows from first hand
    experience that extensive resources--time, equipment and skilled
    workers--will be necessary to make the reductions Clear Skies will
    require. Many of the critics of Clear Skies have never planned,
    designed, constructed, operated or financed these massive pollution
    control systems.
        At TVA, we will soon have SCR or similar systems on 25 units and
    scrubbers on 18 units raising TVA's total investment in cleaner air to
    $5.6 billion. Achieving the results contemplated by Clear Skies would
    require us to construct 23 additional SCR systems and install scrubber
    technology on 40 more units at an additional cost of $4 billion between
    now and 2018. To do more, sooner than what Clear Skies requires would
    increase costs considerably while placing an unrealistic burden on the
    economy of the Tennessee Valley and our ratepayers.
        I appreciate the opportunity to talk with you today about this
    important legislation. We at TVA are committed to improving the quality
    of life for the 8.3 million people of the Tennessee Valley. The TVA
    Board is setting a new standard of excellence for TVA's business
    performance and in our public service. On our watch at TVA, we are
    striving to find the best balance between providing the affordable,
    reliable supply of electricity that sustains a vibrant economy and
    continuing to improve the environmental quality of the Valley. Thank
    you again for allowing me to address these issues with you today and I
    am pleased to answer any questions you may have for me.

                                   __________
                                     ______

      Responses of Glenn McCullough to Additional Questions from Senator
                                   Voinovich
        Question 1. Do you think that Clear Skies will have a positive
    effect or negative effect on the air quality in the Great Smoky
    Mountains National Park?
        Response. The emission reductions required by the Clear Skies Act
    will have a positive effect on the air quality and resources of the
    Smokies. In my testimony, the emission reductions targets and
    timetables in Clear Skies were noted as being very aggressive. The
    reduction targets will result in deep cuts in emissions of nitrogen
    oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) from utilities, and the timetable
    for these reductions is both short and certain. Unlike many
    requirements of the existing Clean Air Act that are prone to prolonged
    litigation, Clear Skies provides a logical and tested framework for
    achieving these reductions rapidly.
        In my testimony, I also noted that TVA has already reduced its NOx
    emissions by over 50 percent since 1995 and has made a 76 percent
    reduction in SO2 since 1977. TVA's reductions undoubtedly have
    contributed to the improvements in air quality here in the Tennessee
    Valley. Yet air quality challenges remain, particularly in the Park.
    Clearly all air emission sources will have to reduce their emissions if
    we are to see overall improvements to the Park's air quality. With its
    national focus, Clear Skies should prove more effective in improving
    mountain air quality than any regional or single-source programs.

        Question 2. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, fuel switching is
    a major concern of mine. I noticed in your testimony that you have a
    pretty diverse fuel mix for electric generation at TVA. What impacts do
    you think Clear Skies would have on your ability to maintain that
    diverse fuel mix?
        Response. Clear Skies will enable us to maintain a diverse mix of
    generation assets and fuel sources. Make no mistake; Clear Skies will
    require a continuation of major investments in pollution control
    technologies for our coal-fired plants. Yet, with these investments,
    TVA will be able to continue to provide affordable, reliable electrical
    power that is needed to support sustainable economic development while
    advancing TVA's stewardship of the region's natural resources.

        Question 3. What impact would passage of the Clean Power Act (S.
    366) have on TVA's ability to provide reliable affordable electricity
    to its consumers?
        Response. Our review of the Clean Power Act indicates that the
    nation's infrastructure for generating and delivering energy in our
    region would be severely compromised. Sharp reductions of CO2 by 2007
    would require a drastic shift from coal-fired generation to natural-
    gas-fired and nuclear generation. The enormity of this shift in fuel
    sources stretches the ability to realistically predict the consequences
    of such a change. Estimates from both DOE and EPA are shocking. Apart
    from a large increase in the cost of power, extensive reliance on
    natural gas as a primary fuel for electricity generation throughout the
    Nation would undoubtedly result in serious reliability and availability
    problems. It could also have devastating impacts on the use of natural
    gas for residential uses.
        We have estimated that this legislation could require TVA to shut
    down over 3900 MW of our coal-fired generation, or more than 25 percent
    of the coal-fired generation on our system.

                                     ______

      Responses of Glenn McCullough to Additional Questions from Senator
                                    Jeffords

        Question 1. What impact would passage of the Clean Air Planning Act
    (S. 3135) have on TVA's ability to provide reliable affordable
    electricity to its consumers?
        Reponse. Our review of the Clean Air Planning Act prompted, in
    part, a statement in my testimony that to do more sooner than what
    Clear Skies requires would increase costs considerably while placing an
    unrealistic burden on the economy of the Tennessee Valley and our
    ratepayers.

        Question 2.  What amount of reductions will Clear Skies require TVA
    to make in 2010 and in 2020 that aren't already planned or expected by
    TVA planners and management under the current Clean Air Act? In your
    response, please include any planning documents that discuss possible
    reductions required to be made in order to achieve attainment with the
    ozone or fine particulate matter NAAQS.
        Reponse. As I testified, TVA currently is in the process of
    installing selective catalytic reduction (SCR) NOx controls on 25 of
    TVA's 59 units and 5 more scrubbers to control SO2 emissions from 12 of
    our units. We are installing these controls to meet requirements of the
    current Clean Air Act. Under Clear Skies, we project that we will have
    to install 23 additional SCRs on our system and scrubbers to control
    emissions from 40 more units. Some of these latter controls could be
    required when EPA issues additional regulations, but the number and
    schedule for additional control systems depends on the requirements of
    any future regulations and the resolution of the litigation that
    inevitably follows EPA rulemakings under the current Clean Air Act.

        Question 3. In your testimony, you stated that if Clear Skies were
    implemented, TVA would have to install pollution controls on 23
    additional units at a cost of another $5 billion by 2018. How much
    would TVA electricity consumers rates rise as a result of Clear Skies
    implementation?
        Reponse. I stated that TVA will soon have SCR or similar systems on
    25 units and scrubbers on 18 units raising TVA's total investment in
    clean air to $5.6 billion. Achieving the results contemplated by Clear
    Skies would require us to construct
        23 additional SCR systems and install scrubber technology on 40
    more units at an additional cost of $4 billion between now and 2018.
        Spending an additional $4 billion between now and 2018 would impose
    a significant financial burden on TVA. TVA's goal has always been to
    pay necessary expenses out of existing revenues rather than increase
    rates and this would be our first response to costs incurred under
    Clear Skies. We have historically resisted rate increases unless
    absolutely necessary, as evidenced by the fact that the rate increase
    that is being discussed for fiscal year 2004 would only be our second
    in the last 16 years.

        Question 4, What are TVA's projected annual pollution control
    capital and operating costs for the next 10 years? Please distinguish
    between the two categories in your answer.
        Reponse. Through 2010, TVA forecasts capital expenditures for air
    pollution control equipment of over $2.3 billion dollars. This
    translates to an average annual amount of approximately $300 million
    per year. Annual operating and maintenance costs associated with these
    controls are expected to average $34 million per year.

        Question 5. What percentage of the TVA electricity consumers rate
    ($/kwh) does each of the categories in the previous question represent?
    Please reply for each of the last 3 years and the next 3 years.
        Reponse. The rates that TVA charges its distributor customers and
    directly served customers are bundled rates that include all components
    of TVA's cost structure. The contributions of these individual
    components are not singled out. The spending levels discussed in the
    above response represent about 3.8 percent of TVA revenue over this
    period.

        Question 6. Based on the Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiative
    analysis, utilities close to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park
    are having the greatest impact on air pollution problems. In order to
    return the Smokies to the natural visibility range of 77 miles in the
    summer, haze pollution would need to be reduced by 90 percent. But, as
    I understand it, Clear Skies would only provide a visibility
    improvement of 4 or 5 miles (that takes it from an average of 14 to 18
    or 19 miles). Will TVA support or make deeper SOx reductions than Clear
    Skies would require in order to improve the visibility problems
    plaguing the park?
        Reponse. The work done by the Southern Appalachian Mountains
    Initiative indicates that sources in States closest to the Smokies have
    a greater impact than sources in more distant States but this same
    research also shows that the closer sources account for less than 50
    percent of the emissions that impact the Park. In other words, as a
    group, more distant sources are contributing substantially to air
    quality conditions in the Park. This is one reason why TVA supports
    national legislation like Clear Skies that will produce emission
    reductions from these more distant sources. I testified that Clear
    Skies is a very aggressive proposal. It will require deep cuts in
    emissions on top of what TVA and other utilities are already making.
    Because of limitations on necessary equipment and skilled labor, we
    think it would be very difficult to either accelerate the schedule or
    level of reductions called for by Clear Skies.

        Question 7. How many TVA plants are located more than 50 kilometers
    from Great Smoky Mountains National Park?
        Reponse. Our Bull Run Fossil Plant is approximately 46 kilometers
    from the nearest park boundary, and our Kingston Fossil Plant is
    approximately 49 kilometers from the park boundary. TVA is installing
    SCRs and scrubbers at these plants as part of our current system
    reductions. All of our other nine coal-fired plants are located greater
    than 50 kilometers from the park boundary.

        Question 8. About 3 years ago, Joe Bynum of TVA testified before
    this Subcommittee. He said that TVA is a Federal agency and
    corporation. If that's the case, it seems inappropriate if not illegal
    for TVA to be suing EPA in court over New Source Review. Why hasn't TVA
    complied with EPA's administrative order on NSR, since all Federal
    agencies are required to comply with such orders under the Clean Air
    Act unless national security is invoked?
        Reponse. There is nothing inappropriate or unlawful about TVA
    requesting the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals to review the EPA
    administrative order on NSR. EPA challenged the propriety of TVA's
    lawsuit and asked the Eleventh Circuit to throw TVA out of court. By
    unanimous decision, the Court found that TVA could sue EPA over the
    order and has allowed TVA's lawsuit to continue. Unlike other targeted
    electricity providers, TVA did not have an opportunity to contest EPA's
    allegations of NSR violations before an independent trial court. The
    Court of Appeals is the only entity to which TVA could turn to afford
    us and our ratepayers an opportunity to make our case before an
    independent entity and show that our efforts to maintain the
    reliability, availability, and safety of our power plants did not and
    does not violate NSR.

        Question 9. If TVA fully complied with the EPA order on NSR as soon
    as possible, what would be the approximate reduction in TVA plant
    emissions annually and what would be the emissions performance at each
    of your fossil plants?
        Reponse. If TVA had to comply with the EPA NSR administrative order
    as soon as possible, we do not know what the approximate emission
    reduction would be. This uncertainty is due in part to the order
    because it does not identify specific levels of control (these are to
    be determined by the States that regulate TVA's plants) nor does it
    identify specifically all of the units that TVA may have to control. I
    testified to the reductions that TVA is already making on its system
    and is committed to make. These reductions are very close to the level
    of reductions (on a proportional basis) that EPA has required of other
    utilities that have now settled EPA's NSR claims or litigation.
    However, EPA in these settlements has generally required that the
    agreed-to reductions be made by 2012. TVA plans to complete similar
    reductions underway on its system by the end of the decade.

        Question 10. Your testimony was that TVA will spend $5.6 billion by
    2010 in cleaner air. In 2010, how many tons of pollution will TVA be
    emitting generally and at each plant?
        Reponse. Estimates for future emissions (as opposed to emission
    reductions) depend on generation levels on our entire system and at
    each plant in the system. However, ignoring this uncertainty, we
    estimate that after we complete the installation of the additional SCRs
    on the TVA system, annual NOx emissions from our system will be about
    230 thousand tons per year. When we complete the installation of the
    five additional scrubbers on our system, we estimate system SO2
    emissions will be near 360 thousand tons per year. Attached are tables
    showing our estimates of emission rates by plants for both NOx and SO2.

        Question 11. How many tons of allowances did TVA plants need to buy
    to ``true-up'' in each of the last 5 years, meaning that TVA facilities
    had emitted more pollution than their allocation under Title IV?
        Reponse. Unlike some utilities, TVA decided to install emission
    controls and employ other strategies to comply with Title IV rather
    than buying SO2 emission allowances. Since the inception of the Title
    IV program of the Clean Air Act Amendments 1990, TVA has maintained a
    bank of SO2 allowances and has not purchased allowances to ``true-up''.
    Part of our strategy was to create a ``bank'' of allowances to help us
    better schedule the installation of necessary controls. TVA's bank was
    created by reducing emissions earlier than required, including the
    installation and operation of scrubbers on our two largest units. While
    TVA has periodically bought and sold allowances in the market, the net
    effect has been that TVA is effectively neutral in the emissions
    allowance market.

        Question 12. TVA has recently announced plans to increase customer
    rates by about 8 percent. Are these increases to pay for restarting
    Brown's Ferry Unit 1 nuclear reactor or for NOx and SOx pollution
    controls?
        Reponse. TVA's recently announced plan to increase its wholesale
    rates by an average of 5.9 percent is necessary to cover the increasing
    costs of NOx and SOx pollution controls while continuing to pay down
    the debt. By 2010, TVA will have invested nearly $5.6 billion in clean
    air. While these investments to date have been made out of existing
    revenues, the enormity of future clean air investments makes a rate
    increase necessary.
        The rate increase that is being discussed is not an attempt to pay
    for the costs of restarting TVA's Browns Ferry Unit 1. By 2015, the
    investment in Brown's Ferry Unit 1 is projected to pay for itself from
    operating cash-flows. Additionally, TVA is exploring alternative
    financing arrangements to pay a portion of the restart costs.

        Question 13. You stated that TVA is spending $527 million this
    fiscal year on clean air. Please describe the projects (>$5 million)
    that TVA defines as clean air and how they will contribute to cleaner
    air.
        Reponse. These clean air related projects consist of SCR projects
    to reduce NOx emissions at seven TVA plants (Allen, Bull Run, Colbert,
    Cumberland, Kingston, Paradise, and Widows Creek) and SO2 reduction
    projects consisting of scrubber and fuel switches at three plants
    (Colbert, Johnsonville, and Paradise).
                                   attachment

                                               Tennessee Valley Authority
                                        Projected 2010 Annual SO2 Emission Rates
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                              SO2                          Expected
                                                      --------------------------------------------------   2010 SO2
                    Plant                     Unit                                                        Rate (lb/
                                                        SO2 Control Technology           Status             MMBtu)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Allen...............................          1-3    .....................    .....................          0.9
    Bull Run............................               Scrubber...............  By 2010................          0.3
    Colbert.............................          1-4    .....................    .....................          1.0
    Colbert.............................            5  Scrubber...............  By 2010................          0.3
    Cumberland..........................            1  Scrubber...............  Existing...............          0.3
    Cumberland..........................            2  Scrubber...............  Existing...............          0.3
    Gallatin............................          1-4    .....................    .....................          1.0
    John Sevier.........................          1-4    .....................    .....................          1.4
    Johnsonville........................         1-10    .....................    .....................          1.4
    Kingston............................          1-4  Scrubber...............  By 2010................          0.3
    Kingston............................          5-9  Scrubber...............  By 2010................          0.3
    Paradise............................          1-2  Scrubber...............  Existing...............          0.5
    Paradise............................            3  Scrubber...............  By 2010................          0.3
    Shawnee 1-9.........................          1-9    .....................    .....................          1.0
    Shawnee 10..........................           10    .....................    .....................          0.6
    Widows Creek........................          1-6    .....................    .....................          1.2
    Widows Creek........................            7  Scrubber...............  Existing...............          0.5
    Widows Creek........................            8  Scrubber...............  Existing...............          0.5
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                               Tennessee Valley Authority
                                     Projected 2007 Ozone Season NOx Emission Rates
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                              NOx                          Expected
                                                      --------------------------------------------------   2010 NOx
                    Plant                     Unit                                                        Rate (lb/
                                                        NOx Control Technology           Status             MMBtu)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Allen...............................          1-3  SCR....................  Existing...............          0.1
    Bull Run............................               SCR....................  By 2005................          0.1
    Colbert.............................          1-4  SCR....................  By 2006................          0.1
    Colbert.............................            5  SCR....................  By 2005................          0.1
    Cumberland..........................            1  SCR....................  Existing...............          0.1
    Cumberland..........................            2  SCR....................  By 2005................          0.1
    Gallatin............................          1-4  LNB & OFA..............  Existing...............          0.3
    John Sevier.........................          1-4  LNB & OFA..............  Existing...............          0.4
    Johnsonville........................         1-10  BLR OPT 1-6............  Existing...............          0.6
                                                       LNB U7-10..............  Existing...............          0.5
    Kingston 1-8........................          1-8  SCR....................  By 2005................          0.1
    Kingston............................            9  OFA....................  Existing...............         0.45
    Paradise............................          1-2  SCR....................  Existing...............          0.1
    Paradise............................            3  SCR....................  Existing...............          0.1
    Shawnee 1-9.........................          1-9  LNB....................  Existing...............          0.4
    Shawnee 10..........................               AFBC...................  Existing...............          0.3
    Widows Creek........................          1-6  LNB....................    .....................          0.5
    Widows Creek........................            7  SCR....................  Existing...............          0.1
    Widows Creek........................            8  SCR....................  By 2005................          0.1
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Expected Technology--Other control technology may be installed.
    SCR--Selective Catalytic Reduction
    OFA--Over-fired Air
    ANCT--Advanced NOx Control Technology
    LNB--Low NOx Burner
    AFBC--Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion

                                   __________
      Statement of Jim Rogers, CEO and President, Cinergy Corporation, on
                    behalf of the Edison Electric Institute

    Introduction
        Good morning. My name is Jim Rogers and I am Chairman, President
    and CEO of Cinergy Corp, which is a Midwest leader in electricity
    generation. Our regulated delivery operations in Ohio, Indiana, and
    Kentucky serve 1.5 million electric customers and about 500,000 gas
    customers. Cinergy's core energy system comprises approximately 13,300
    megawatts at 14 base load stations and seven peaking stations. This
    portfolio includes 37 coal-based units that we operate and at least
    partially own. Altogether Cinergy is responsible for the operation of
    114 electric generation units at 40 locations in 15 States. And, just
    so you fully understand why Cinergy is so interested in today's topic,
    more than 90 percent of the megawatt hours that we generate come from
    coal units. As I like to say, Cinergy is the largest non-nuclear
    utility in the United States
        Today I am also testifying on behalf of the Edison Electric
    Institute (EEI). EEI is the association of U.S. shareholder-owned
    electric companies, international affiliates and industry associates
    worldwide. EEI's U.S. members serve more than 90 percent of all
    customers served by the shareholder-owned segment of the industry,
    generate approximately three-quarters of all of the electricity
    generated by electric companies in the country, and serve about 70
    percent of all ultimate customers in the Nation.
        Since 2000, Cinergy has testified before this committee on several
    occasions, urging it to pass legislation that would alter the way power
    plant emissions are regulated. We have worked with the environmental
    community, with industry and with many of you on this committee. While
    we have not achieved unanimity within all of the stakeholder groups,
    there has been general consensus that the current Clean Air Act fails
    to deliver certainty for the environment, certainty for consumers or
    certainty for the industry.
        In fact, in testimony in May 2000, major environmental groups
    recognized that the lack of certainty requires immediate attention:
        ``The Act is designed to address air pollution from the power
    sector on a pollutant-by-pollutant basis. The result is that there are
    numerous EPA regulatory initiatives all underway at present affecting
    different pieces of the power plant pollution problem, on different
    time scales, and with different geographic targets and often-different
    criteria. Each of these regulatory proceedings is subject to delay and
    court review the time has come to improve on the Act's current
    regulatory scheme for power plants. Surely the devil will be in the
    details but the stage has been set for a policy discussion that could
    drive us to a better, cleaner outcome.''\1\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \1\Testimony before the Subcommittee on Clean Air, Wetlands,
    Private Property and Nuclear Safety, Committee on Environment and
    Public Works, May 17, 2000. Testimony submitted on behalf of Clean Air
    Task Force, NRDC, USPIRG, National Environmental Trust and other
    environmental groups.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The multi-emissions idea has also garnered tremendous support from
    a diverse group of stakeholders including the United Mineworkers of
    America, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, the National
    Governors Association, the National Association of Counties, the
    Environmental Council of States, Candidate Al Gore, and, of course,
    President Bush.
        The Edison Electric Institute's CEO Policy Committee on
    Environment, which I chair, has for several years actively addressed
    the multi-emissions issue. That committee recommended to the Board of
    Directors that EEI embrace the scope and framework of the President's
    Clear Skies Initiative. The Board has adopted that recommendation.

    The Progress We Have Made
        Before I venture into why multi-emissions legislation is so
    important, let me first quickly review how far the industry has come.
    The electric power industry has reduced its air emissions
    significantly, even as demand for electricity has increased. Attached
    is a chart that demonstrates that we have dramatically reduced our
    emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx.)
    We have also reduced particulate matter (PM10) by over 90
    percent. Moreover because some particulate matter, SO2 and
    NOx controls have some mercury reduction co-benefits, our industry has
    also reduced mercury emissions significantly by almost 40 percent from
    75 tons per year to approximately 48 tons per year.
        We have done all this despite a steady climb in electricity demand
    and without sacrificing the reliability and affordability of the
    electricity that we produce.
        Cinergy itself has invested considerable sums in clean air
    compliance. In the decade of the 90's, we spent more than $650 million,
    primarily to meet the SO2 and NOx requirements of Title IV
    of the Clean Air Act. Between 2000 and 2005, we will spend an
    additional $800 million to build Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
    pollution control units to meet the NOx SIP Call. To meet Clear Skies,
    we estimate our capital expenditures for just pollution control
    equipment will top these two sums combined or $1.5 billion. And
    unfortunately for Cinergy and most other utilities these costs are not
    back-loaded. We estimate that more than two-thirds of these
    expenditures are necessary to meet the first phase of the Clear Skies
    targets. Having said all that, the widely diverse commitment to support
    multi-emission legislation, even in the face of the costs I have just
    noted, clearly demonstrates that the electric utility industry is
    prepared to do more but we need to do it the right way.

    Keeping Coal in the Fuel Mix
        Low-cost, reliable electricity results, in part, from our ability
    to utilize a variety of readily available energy resources coal,
    nuclear energy, natural gas, hydropower, and new renewable energy
    resources such as wind and solar. Fuel diversity is key to affordable
    and reliable electricity. A diverse fuel mix helps to protect consumers
    from contingencies such as fuel shortages or disruptions, price
    fluctuations and changes in regulatory practices. A diverse fuel mix
    takes advantage of regional differences in fuel availability that have
    evolved over many decades. I have attached a chart showing that
    different parts of the United States are dependent on different sources
    of electricity.
        While coal fuels slightly more than 50 percent of the generation
    produced in the United States, coal fuels more than eighty percent of
    the electrical generation in the Midwest. These coal plants help to
    keep the price of electricity down for consumers and businesses, an
    extremely important issue in Midwest States whose economies are already
    financially strapped.

    Coal and the Clean Air Act
        But coal-based electric generators face emissions control
    requirements in the Clean Air Act that are duplicative, contradictory,
    costly and complex--creating enormous uncertainty for future
    investment. Attached to my testimony is an EPA chart showing the
    complexity of the Clean Air Act for electric generators over the next
    decade (and it doesn't even include all the pre-2000 requirements that
    continue now and into the future). While I think many of these
    deadlines are ambitious and will be missed, the chart does show the
    regulatory muddle that coal-fired power faces.
        The net result of the current regulatory system is a planning
    nightmare that makes it virtually impossible for electric generators to
    have any stable notion of what requirements will be in place for our
    plants at any point in the future. In addition to this chaos, are the
    long construction cycles and large capital expenditures that prohibit
    us from accurately assessing which plants should be retrofitted with
    controls, which plants should be switched to different coals or to
    natural gas, which plants should be retired and when any of this should
    take place. The result is a system that threatens the reliability and
    affordability of our nation's electric supply.
        This regulatory morass also puts more pressure on the natural gas
    supply and delivery systems that already are yielding gas prices of
    great concern to the nation's industrial users and electric customers.
    Just this past winter, spikes in natural gas prices forced the
    Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp. to reduce or halt operations at three
    plants in Ohio. According to the American Chemistry Council, every
    dollar that the price of natural gas increases translates to about $1
    billion in additional annual costs for the chemical industry that alone
    employs more than one million people directly.
        Stephen Brown, director of energy economics at the Dallas Federal
    Reserve Bank stated that ``strong energy prices weaken the economy and
    it's likely to retard the recovery. Nine of the 10 last recessions have
    been preceded by sharply higher energy prices.''\2\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \2\Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2003 ``Effects of Gas
    Shortage Rip Through Economy
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Ironically, the present system also does not advantage those
    seeking further emissions reductions from coal-fired power plants. The
    piecemeal approach inherent in the current Clean Air Act necessarily
    involves many sequential scientific and technical decisions by EPA and
    the States that may not necessarily be resolved in favor of the
    environmental community and, regardless are typically late in being
    made and then litigated by all sides, causing further delay. This
    regulatory soup may deliver cleaner air it hasn't so far but the chaos
    that accompanies this approach makes the timing of that environmental
    progress doubtful. And we will have the nation's energy policy set by
    Brownian motion. The end result of all of these rulemakings randomly
    bouncing against each other will form a totally unpredictable pattern.
    However there will be some certain consequences significantly higher
    electricity prices and further delays in environmental benefits.
        For instance, implementation of National Ambient Air Quality
    Standards requires a series of sequential steps including monitoring of
    each air shed, designating nonattainment areas, inventorying emissions
    in the nonattainment area, modeling emissions in the nonattainment
    area, creating attainment demonstrations, and, finally, implementing
    these plans. Each step requires administrative action by the State or
    in some cases the State legislature followed by a formal approval by
    EPA. Because of this cumbersome process, there have been no
    nonattainment designations for either the fine particle NAAQS or the 8-
    hour ozone NAAQS, both of which were established in 1997. Once those
    designations of nonattainment areas occur, the Clean Air Act still
    allows States up to 12 years to bring nonattainment areas into
    compliance.
        There is also no certainty around mercury reductions. While EPA is
    under a court order to finalize a mercury rule for coal-fired power by
    December 15, 2004, considerable uncertainty surrounds this endeavor.
    Under the Clean Air Act, maximum achievable control technology (MACT)
    standards are supposed to be based on the performance of the best
    available control technology in actual use in the source category. For
    coal-fired utility boilers, no high removal mercury-specific technology
    is in place. What reductions have occurred result from the installation
    of control technology aimed at other emissions. But data quality and
    variability issues make simple extrapolation of these results (which is
    necessary in determining a standard) very problematic. Reductions
    fluctuate without explanation over time at a single unit; similar units
    with similar controls and coals experience very different results. As a
    result, EPA will need to build into the final rule emissions targets
    that reflect these fluctuations.
        Add to this the reality that while the Clean Air Act generally
    requires a 3-year implementation period, there are extensions
    available, making implementation more likely in 2009 or 2010 and that
    does not count any delays spawned by the inevitable litigation, further
    delaying the implementation date.
        By the way, the nominal 3-year period is too short for utilities to
    design, permit and install SO2 scrubbers, the most cost
    effective means for bituminous coal to reduce mercury emissions. If
    utilities are held to the 3 years, we will be forced to focus our
    capital dollars on other extremely expensive and unproven technologies
    or switching to natural gas--both of which are ill-conceived outcomes
    for ratepayers, shareholders and the breathing public.

    Why a Multi-Pollutant Approach Makes Sense
        In contrast to the current piecemeal approach to regulation
    inherent in the existing Clean Air Act, a well-designed multi-emission
    approach is the best roadmap for further reducing power plant
    emissions. The right multi-emission bill will benefit electricity
    producers, consumers and the environment, by:
          Locking in major emission reductions today
          Locking in a timeline for those reductions so that
    emission control strategies can begin today resulting in cleaner air
    sooner
          Lowering the cost impact for consumers
          Coordinating reductions so that utilities are able to use
    multi-pollutant control technology
          Providing the electric industry in need of certainty with
    the time necessary to attract capital for the multi-billions of
    investments that will be needed to meet the new requirements
          Maintaining coal as a generation fuel thereby preserving
    natural gas reserves for consumers, farmers and businesses that rely on
    natural gas for their operations
          Saving jobs at existing coal-fired power plants and in
    the coal industry and creating new jobs to construct massive pollution
    control projects
          Providing flexibility through market-based programs such
    as emissions trading and early reduction credits
          Easing implementation for States to meet Federal clean
    air standards

    The Clear Skies Act (S. 485)
        The ``Clear Skies Act'' would require the most ambitious emissions
    reductions ever from power plants, ensuring air quality results that
    are cleaner, sooner, and cheaper. The emissions reductions would be
    rock solid, due to continuous emissions monitoring and large penalties
    for non-compliance. The scope and framework of the Clear Skies Act are
    ambitious and, for many companies including small public power systems,
    extremely painful. This is especially true for the first phase of Clear
    Skies.
        Clear Skies would deliver additional dramatic reductions of power
    plant emissions cutting SO2, NOx and mercury emissions by 70
    percent from current levels while reducing costs and providing greater
    business certainty by combining multiple, overlapping regulations into
    a single set of reduction requirements.
        An essential component of Clear Skies is that is provides industry
    with the time needed to attract capital necessary to make the
    reductions without jeopardizing the balance sheets. Given the current
    economic situation for our industry, we must spread the huge Clean Air
    capital investments over more than a few years in order to maintain our
    economic health.
        And, the appropriate timelines also saves existing and creates new
    jobs. A deliberate approach to meeting emission reduction goals is
    essential for continued reliable electric generation and cost-
    effectiveness. Retrofits of additional selective catalytic reduction
    (SCR) systems for NOx, flue gas desulfurization systems (scrubbers) for
    SO2, activated carbon and fabric filters for mercury will be
    needed on over 100 GW of power plants, which is the equivalent of 250
    medium sized generation units. Each of these installations will require
    capital expenditures of anywhere from $60 million to more than $200
    million.
        Clear Skies represents probably one of the largest construction
    projects this nation will see. These installations must be spread over
    time to ensure reliability and stable prices that will not occur if too
    many large units are off line for retrofits at once. A smooth timeline
    also provides a steady construction program over the next 15 years. As
    we found with the NOx SIP Call, if controls are pushed within too
    narrow a time window, aside from increasing pressure on switching to
    natural gas, there will be labor and materials shortages and
    bottlenecks, which will greatly (and unnecessarily) increase costs.
        Congress in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 afforded the
    industry a decade to comply with reductions of fifty percent in
    SO2 and NOx emissions. And just as Congress said in the 1990
    amendments, a defined emissions target set over a reasonable timeframe
    resulted in real environmental improvements. Emissions reductions of
    seventy percent for three different emissions will be more costly,
    resource intensive and time consuming. Providing two phases of
    reductions, with the first phase limited to a fifty percent reduction,
    squares not only with reality but also with the precedent established
    in 1990.
        As I have mentioned, the targets in the Clear Skies proposal are
    aggressive. To provide the planning certainty we need to meet these
    goals, the Clear Skies Initiative must also harmonize the existing
    Title I requirements including New Source Review; facilitate emissions
    trading; provide credit for early reductions; and distribute emission
    allowances equitably. The industry also has concerns about the auction
    provision that would only increase costs for those spending billions in
    retrofits with no commensurate environmental benefit. S. 366
        While I prefer to emphasize the positive aspects of the Clear Skies
    Act, I cannot go without noting that S. 366, which Senator Jeffords and
    co-sponsors introduced on February 12, 2003, is unworkable and would
    cause tremendous economic hardship for my company, the industry and the
    Nation. All of the bill's new requirements would be placed on top of
    the existing Clean Air Act, exacerbating the complexity of an Act that
    already can give the Tax Code a run for being crowned the ``most
    convoluted, Byzantine and difficult to understand'' Federal law.
        More importantly, S. 366 would greatly impact electricity prices,
    natural gas prices, coal consumption and other key factors. As you
    know, in November 2001, Mary J. Hutzler, the Acting Administrator of
    the Energy Information Administration, that as a result of S. 556,
    ``the average delivered price of electricity in 2020 is projected to be
    33 percent higher'' and ``natural gas prices are also higher by 20
    percent.''\3\ An earlier EIA report pegged the loss of coal generation
    at 38 to 42 percent while natural gas generation increased by 60
    percent.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \3\Statement of Mary J. Hutzler, Acting Administrator, Energy
    Information Administration, Department of Energy, before the Committee
    on Environment and Public Works (Nov. 1, 2001) p.3
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        And significantly, the analysis did not actually capture the full
    costs of S. 366 since many new, troublesome provisions were added in
    June 2002. EIA did not model S. 556's ``Outdated Power Plants''
    provision, which will almost immediately cancel out the cap and trade
    program supposedly contained in the bill, and dictate compliance
    strategy. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office last November
    estimated the impact of S. 556 to power generators as possibly reaching
    $60 billion in just the year 2012.

    Conclusion
        While I know the challenges are daunting, I do believe that this
    Subcommittee can craft multi-emission legislation that both meets
    environmental goals and provides the industry with a workable roadmap.
    To do otherwise will ignore both an opportunity to make tremendous
    progress on Clean Air while ensuring the economic health of the energy
    industry. This industry, which faces enormous uncertainty on all
    fronts, is also the target of a morass of new Clean Air Act regulations
    which I have outlined today. These regulations threaten coal and
    dramatically increase compliance costs, yet leave environmental
    progress up in the air. With the economy in perilous shape at the
    national and State level, massive increases in the use of natural gas
    for generation will be very destructive. Environmental goals can and
    must be met, but fuel switching and consumer price increases must be
    kept to a minimum. That is why EEI and Cinergy support multi-pollutant
    legislation and the scope and framework of the Clear Skies Initiative.
    It delivers clean air with certainty while protecting workers,
    consumers and industry.
        Finally, the time to act is now. I strongly believe that the window
    for passing multi-pollutant legislation will close next year due to
    national elections and further regulatory developments. So I
    respectfully ask this Subcommittee not to squander this unique
    opportunity to create a new chapter of Clean Air progress for the
    American people. It is time to find a sensible, practical solution to
    the environmental issues facing coal-fired power before we jeopardize
    our future.
        We look forward to working with the committee, the Administration
    and other key Members of Congress to help make this legislation a
    reality.
        Thank you.

                                   __________
       Statement of Bradley Campbell, Director, New Jersey Department of
        Environmental Protection, on Behalf of the Northeast States for
                    Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM)

        Good afternoon. My name is Brad Campbell. I am Commissioner of the
    New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. I speak today for
    the eight Northeast States that make up the Northeast States for
    Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM). I understand that many of the
    views I will offer are also shared by the States of the larger Ozone
    Transport Commission. I appreciate the opportunity to testify before
    the committee today to present a Northeast States' perspective on the
    critically important issue of Federal action to reduce power plant
    pollution.
        I want to begin by emphasizing that the Northeast States strongly
    support efforts to enact multi-pollutant legislation, and have so
    testified before this committee in the past. We applaud the
    Administration and this committee for making passage of such
    legislation a priority for the 108th Congress. It has been over a
    decade since the last Clean Air Act Amendments, and the time has
    clearly come for a new national policy to address the broad array of
    public health risks and environmental harms caused by power plant
    emissions.
        In the Northeast, where sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides
    emissions from upwind power plants contribute significantly to problems
    ranging from fine particle and ozone pollution to acid rain,
    eutrophication of surface waters, and poor visibility in our parks and
    wilderness areas, we have long appreciated the need for concerted
    Federal action. With mercury contamination necessitating fish
    consumption advisories for most of our lakes and rivers, we see an
    urgent need for new measures to curb the continued buildup of this
    persistent, potent neurotoxin in our environment. And we see the
    problem of climate change as presenting unprecedented challenges for
    our ecosystems and quality of life, but also great economic opportunity
    for those who develop and provide the clean energy technologies of the
    future.
        For all of these reasons, the Northeast States have followed with
    keen interest the development of several multi-pollutant initiatives
    now before Congress, including the Administration's ``Clear Skies''
    proposal. In evaluating each initiative, we have asked three core
    questions:

          Is it comprehensive?
          Is it adequate to address the significant public health
    and environmental challenges we face?
          Does it strengthen our ability to ensure continued clean
    air progress, not only at the national level, but also at the local,
    State and regional levels?

        Recognizing Clear Skies as a starting point for the committee's
    deliberations, I want to focus my remarks today on where and how we
    believe Clear Skies needs to be improved to meet these tests.
        First, emissions reductions can and must happen sooner. As you
    know, many areas of the country need to attain new, more stringent
    health-based Federal standards for ozone and fine particles in the next
    4-7 years. Yet the emissions caps in Clear Skies won't be fully
    implemented until 2018. Delaying necessary cuts for another 15 years is
    problematic for States trying to reach attainment, but it's even more
    problematic for the tens of thousands of people who experience serious
    health effects associated with unnecessarily high levels of fine
    particle and ozone pollution.
        Second, we can and must do more to reduce mercury emissions. Given
    the persistent, bioaccumulative threat posed by this neurotoxin and the
    availability of highly effective control technologies, power plant
    mercury emissions should be capped at levels at least 50 percent lower
    than the 15 ton figure proposed in Clear Skies.
        Third, national multi-pollutant legislation must address the
    intractable problem of interstate pollution transport in a concrete and
    effective manner, and must not weaken or remove crucial regulatory
    tools that States rely on to improve air quality at the local, State,
    and regional levels.
        Clear Skies offers no guarantee that long-standing regional
    transport concerns will be solved under a new national emissions
    trading program, yet States would be prohibited from petitioning for
    Federal action to address transport until after 2012. Even then, the
    new hurdles Clear Skies establishes for Federal intervention would make
    the current transport provisions of the Clean Air Act practically
    unenforceable.
        States support constructive reform of the Clean Air Act, provided
    it genuinely advances our clean air objectives and is strictly tied to
    the actual implementation of new reduction requirements. Clear Skies
    appears to go too far in the name of regulatory reform, however,
    proposing to substantially weaken or even eliminate several provisions
    of the current Clean Air Act. A list of several such concerns--
    including New Source Review, regulation of non-mercury toxins,
    potential local impacts, and protection of States' rights--is attached
    to my written testimony. The bottom line is that when it comes to
    protecting public health, it is far better to have too many tools and
    not need some than to have too few tools and come up short regarding
    our citizens' quality of life.
        The final issue I want to address is carbon dioxide. We believe it
    belongs in multi-pollutant legislation because without it, the market
    signals and business certainty needed to promote sound long-term
    resource choices and investment decisions by the electric power
    industry will remain absent. The inevitable long-term result is greater
    climate risk--and higher costs--for both industry and consumers. The
    Northeast States feel so strongly about the need to act on climate
    change that many have made State-level commitments to reduce greenhouse
    gas emissions and/or have included carbon in their own, more aggressive
    4-pollutant initiatives. The several such efforts already in effect
    show that the Northeast States are willing to lead by example, but as
    downwind States, we can't do it all by ourselves.
        In short, we support multi-pollutant legislation that cost-
    effectively does both more and less than Clear Skies proposes. More--
    and sooner--in terms of pollution reductions; less in terms of changing
    the Clean Air Act.
        This is precisely how the ``Straw Proposal'' that EPA originally
    drafted as the Administration's multi-pollutant initiative could be
    described. The Straw Proposal called for emissions reductions closer to
    85 percent (compared to Clear Skies' 70 percent) and, importantly, for
    reductions to be fully implemented by 2010-12. Moreover, EPA's own
    analysis showed that the health benefits of this substantially more
    aggressive approach far outweighed its costs. EPA's analysis showed
    that implementing the Straw Proposal would cost $3.5 billion more than
    Clear Skies in 2020, but it would produce $59 billion in additional
    health benefits. We urge the committee to re-visit EPA's Straw Proposal
    and other current legislative alternatives that go further toward
    capturing these benefits.
        In closing, let me thank you for considering our views and again
    commend the Administration for pushing forward on multi-pollutant
    legislation. The issues are complex, and the debate will no doubt be
    intense. But the Northeast States look forward to playing a
    constructive role, and we hope all sides can agree that the opportunity
    and need for real progress on these issues is as great as the public
    health, environmental and energy challenges we face are daunting.

    Technical Concerns of the Northeast States Regarding S. 485, the Clear
            Skies Act of 2003
        Clear Skies diminishes or repeals entirely some of States' most
    important tools for achieving Federal, health-based air quality
    standards:
          New Source Review (NSR)
          The utility Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT)
    rule as it applies to hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) other than
    mercury
          Residual risk requirements for mercury
          Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER) and offset
    requirements and conformity for most areas of the country
          Use of Section 126 until 2012, and only then under a
    higher burden of proof
          Some Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD)
    requirements
          Protection of visibility in Class I airsheds.
          Clear Skies appears to undermine, if not preempt
    entirely, State and local authority to adopt and to take State
    Implementation Plan (SIP) credit for more stringent requirements for
    power plants.
          Clear Skies provides no protections against adverse local
    health and environmental impacts that could arise, and does not require
    even a minimum level of control at each power plant.
          Regulatory relief under Clear Skies is provided
    expeditiously, but corresponding emission reduction requirements are
    delayed for years--a serious unbalancing of these dual policy
    objectives.
          Clear Skies' approach to allocating allowances appears to
    continue the practice of rewarding past high emitters, rather than
    encouraging economic efficiency through output-based allocation
    approaches and/or approaches that reward combined heat and power (CHP)
    applications.
                                   __________
     Statement of David Hawkins, Climate Center Program Director, Natural
                           Resources Defense Council

    Summary
        Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee, thank you for
    inviting me to testify on behalf of NRDC, the Natural Resources Defense
    Council, and its more than 500,000 members regarding S. 385, the
    Administration's bill to amend the Clean Air Act. We have examined the
    Administration proposal and we conclude it would harm public health,
    weaken current pollution fighting programs and worsen global warming.
        In my testimony today, I will emphasize three major policy failures
    in the Administration's bill. S. 385 would do the following to our
    nation's clean air program:
          Allow power plant pollution to continue to inflict huge,
    avoidable health damages on the public.
          Repeal or interfere with major health and air quality
    safeguards in current law.
          Worsen global warming by ignoring CO2
    emissions from the power sector.
        NRDC supports good legislation to amend the Clean Air Act. We
    worked with the first Bush Administration in 1989 and supported the cap
    and trade program that was enacted in the 1990 amendments to the law.
    But the current Administration proposal is not good legislation: it
    would take two enormous steps backward and fail to take a critical step
    forward on global warming.
        Fortunately, your choices are not limited to accepting the
    Administration's plan or taking no action. As Senators you have the
    right to ask the Administration to explain the policy choices in the
    bill it has sent to you. If you conduct a thorough inquiry into the
    Administration plan and alternatives we believe you will conclude that
    the Administration's bill should not become law. Congress can do much
    better and the public deserves much better. We want to work with you to
    deliver that better solution to the public.

     I. THE ADMINISTRATION PLAN IMPOSES UNACCEPTABLE AND AVOIDABLE HEALTH
                              COSTS ON THE PUBLIC

        Air pollution from power plants imposes a staggering toll of death,
    disease, and environmental contamination on the American people.
        Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions
    from power plants create dangerous concentrations of fine particles and
    ozone (soot and smog) in the air that 175 million people breathe. Soot
    and smog caused by power plant emissions is causing 30,000 premature
    deaths, hundreds of thousands of asthma attacks, and millions of days
    of illness and lost work each year.
        Mercury emissions from power plants fall from the air and wash into
    lakes, rivers, and coastal waters, where they concentrate in fish.
    Mercury is a potent brain poison (neurotoxin) even in very small
    amounts. Forty-four States have issued warnings against eating local
    fish because of mercury contamination.
        Power plant pollution is causing a major, ongoing public health
    crisis. The Bush Administration's proposed air pollution plan fails to
    stem this crisis.
        By any comparison, the Administration's plan allows power plant
    owners to continue an unacceptable and unjustifiable toll of
    preventable death and illness. Measured against alternative legislative
    proposals including an alternative proposal developed within the
    Administration itself in 2001 the Administration plan would result in
    more than 100,000 additional early deaths and millions of additional
    asthma attacks and other illnesses between now and 2020. The
    Administration's plan also would result in hundreds of tons more
    mercury released into the atmosphere over this period. The same
    conclusions emerge when the Administration's plan is measured against
    faithful enforcement of the current Clean Air Act.
        The Administration rejected an alternative proposal, developed by
    EPA in August 2001, that would have dramatically reduced this toll of
    death, illness, and environmental contamination. When expressed in
    monetary terms, the benefits of the EPA proposal dwarf its cost. But
    the Administration has submitted to you the much weaker plan found in
    S. 385. By sending you its weaker plan, the Administration is asking
    you to vote for a program that saves power plant owners $3.5 billion
    per year in pollution control costs but imposes at least $61 billion
    per year in additional avoidable health costs on the American people.
        In our view, the Administration owes you and the American people
    some straight answers to these questions:
        Why should the public accept the enormous toll of preventable death
    and illness from power plant pollution that will still occur under the
    Administration's plan?
        Why should Americans suffer tens of billions of dollars each year
    in health costs that could be avoided at a fraction of that cost?
        Why don't the American people have a right to expect whether from
    the current Clean Air Act or any new legislation much deeper and
    quicker reductions in power plant pollution than the Administration's
    plan would provide?

    The Administration Plan vs. the EPA Proposal
        The original ``Clear Skies'' proposal was developed in 2001 by the
    Environmental Protection Agency.\1\ The EPA proposal was developed with
    the goal of delivering at least as much clean-up of sulfur, nitrogen,
    and mercury emissions as required under the current Clean Air Act with
    the purported advantages of a cap and trade program. Unfortunately,
    while the Administration's plan before you today keeps the title, the
    program has been converted from one that speeds clean air to one that
    shields power plant owners from faster cuts in their pollution.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \1\U.S. EPA, ``Comprehensive Approach to Clean Power: Straw
    Proposal and Supporting Analysis for Interagency Discussion,'' August
    3, 2001. (``EPA August 2001 Analysis'') Available at http://
    www.catf.us/publications/other/EPA--Straw--Proposal.pdf.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        After intense lobbying by power plant owners, the White House
    rejected the targets and timetables in the EPA proposal and proposed a
    plan allowing much greater continuing pollution from this industry. The
    larger pollution loads allowed by the Administration's CSI plan are
    summarized in the following chart:

                               Bush Administration Plan (CSI) v. EPA Proposal (Aug. 2001)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                             Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)     Nitrous Oxide (NOx)          Mercury (Hg)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    EPA Proposal.........................  2 million tons in 2010.  1.9 million tons in      24 tons in 2008
                                                                     2008.                   7.5 tons in 2012, with
                                                                    1.25 million tons in      70 percent facility-
                                                                     2012.                    specific reduction
    Administration Plan..................  4.5 illion tons in 2010  2.1 million tons in      26 tons in 2010
                                           3 million tons in 2018.   2008.                   15 tons 2018
                                                                    1.7 million tons in
                                                                     2018.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        The differences in the amount of pollution allowed by these two
    plans, both year by year and cumulatively out to 2020, are huge.\2\ The
    Administration's plan would result in 42 million tons more pollution
    than the EPA proposal: For SO2, 18 million tons more through
    2012 and 34 million excess tons out through 2020. For NOx, 3 million
    tons more through 2012 and 8 million excess tons out through 2020. The
    Administration's plan would also allow 58 tons more mercury through
    2012 and 163 tons more out through 2020.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \2\The results shown in the figures below are based on EPA analyses
    with the Integrated Planning Model (IPM), the standard modeling tool
    used by all stakeholders in the power plant debate. They show the
    pattern of emissions expected under the two plans, including the impact
    of ``banking,'' which results in some reductions below the caps in
    early years in order to emissions at levels above the caps in later
    years.

        Health Consequences of Administration Plan's Excess SO2
    and NOx. The Administration's plan means large numbers of Americans
    will continue to die prematurely or suffer illness caused by the
    excessive pollution power plants would continue releasing under the
    plan. Figure 7 shows EPA's estimates of the additional premature death
    toll and illness in 2020 under the Administration's plan:\3\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \3\EPA calculated the incidence of premature death and illness for
    both its August 2001 proposal and the Administration CSI plan using the
    same peer-reviewed methods and summarized the results in its technical
    analysis documents. The health comparisons in this testimony are taken
    from the incidence figures presented in those documents. See, EPA
    August 2001 Analysis, supra, note 1, Appendix A at 3, and EPA CSI
    Technical Support Package, September 2002 at 29, at www.epa.gov/
    clearskies.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
          7100 additional premature deaths
          4600 additional chronic bronchitis cases
          5100 additional hospital stays and ER visits
          7 million additional days of respiratory illness

        While EPA has not presented the cumulative additional premature
    deaths and illnesses allowed under the Administration's plan, those
    numbers are even larger. Using EPA methods, the Clean Air Task Force
    calculates that between 2008 and 2020, the Administration's plan would
    allow more than 100,000 additional premature deaths and would allow
    millions more asthma attacks and other illnesses.\4\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \4\Clean Air Task Force, ``Health Damages Estimates for Clear Skies
    Initiative and Straw Proposal,'' April 2003.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        While we have fundamental concerns about attempting to reduce human
    death, illness, and misery into dollars, it is important to note EPA's
    estimate of the costs the Administration's proposal would impose on the
    public in monetary terms. EPA analyses show that the Administration
    proposal would result in $61 billion more in premature death and
    disease costs per year by 2020 than the EPA August 2001 proposal. While
    the EPA August 2001 proposal would cost industry $3.5 billion dollars
    more per year to implement, it would achieve over $15 in health
    benefits for every clean-up dollar spent. For some as yet unexplained
    reason, the Administration chose a plan that would inflict an
    additional $61 billion a year in health damages on the public in order
    to save power plant owners $3.5 billion in compliance costs. See Figure
    8.

        The additional pollution from power plants under the
    Administration's plan will leave dozens of cities and counties out of
    attainment of the national ambient air quality standards for fine
    particles (soot) and ozone (smog) the Clean Air Act's bedrock measure
    of public health protection.
        The Administration's analysis shows that its plan would leave 107
    counties home to 77 million Americans in violation of these public
    health standards in 2010. 64 counties with 60 million residents would
    remain in violation even in 2020 after the plan's delayed second-phase
    requirements in 2018.
        The stronger power plant emission curbs in EPA's 2001 proposal
    would bring 85 percent of eastern counties with unhealthy soot levels
    into compliance with the fine particle standard, and 90 percent of
    eastern counties with unhealthy smog levels into compliance with the
    ozone standard. Greater power plant pollution reductions would reduce
    population exposure in the remaining counties and make it substantially
    easier for them to reach the health standards with reasonable controls
    on other sources.
        Health Consequences of Administration Plan's Excess Mercury. Coal-
    burning power plants are the largest industrial source of mercury air
    pollution, and the only one still not subject to clean air safeguards.
    Mercury emissions from power plants fall from the air and wash into
    lakes, rivers, and coastal waters, where they concentrate in fish.
    Mercury is a potent neurotoxin even in very small amounts. Forty-four
    States have issued warnings against eating local fish because of
    mercury contamination.
        Methylmercury (the form of mercury that is absorbed in tissue) is
    highly toxic, interfering with the development and function of the
    central nervous system. Infants can ingest methylmercury from breast
    milk when mothers have eaten contaminated fish. Children who eat such
    fish are exposed that way as well. Children and infants are at higher
    risk of mercury poisoning because their nervous systems continue to
    develop until about age 14. Health effects linked to prenatal
    methylmercury exposure include:\5\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        \5\U.S. EPA, 1997f. Mercury Study Report to Congress, Volume V:
    Health Effects of Mercury and Mercury Compounds. EPA-452/R-97-007;
    Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury, National Academy Press,
    Washington, DC, 2000.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
          poor performance on tests of attention and language
          impaired memory
          inability to process and recall information
          impaired visual and motor function
        One in 12 women of childbearing age has mercury levels above EPA's
    safe health threshold, according to a Centers for Disease Control and
    Prevention report published in January 2003 and a Journal of the
    American Medical Association published last week.\6\ Nationally, this
    translates into nearly 4.9 million women of childbearing age with
    elevated levels of mercury from eating contaminated fish and more than
    300,000 newborns at risk of neurological impairment from exposure in
    utero.\7\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \6\Centers for Disease Control, January 2003. Second National
    Report on Human Exposure to Environmental Chemicals; Susan E. Schober,
    et. Al, ``Blood Mercury Levels in U.S. Children and Women of
    Childbearing Age, 1999-2000,'' Journal of the American Medical
    Association, 289: 1667-74 (2003)
         \7\Derived by the Clean Air Task Force from 2000 census data and
    fertility data from the National Center for Health Statistics.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        An estimated 60,000 children are born each year at a significantly
    increased risk of adverse neurological effects from mercury and current
    exposure levels increase the number of children ``who have to struggle
    to keep up in school and who might require remedial classes of special
    education,'' according to the National Academy of Sciences.\8\ Eating
    mercury-tainted fish also can harm cardiovascular and immune systems in
    adults.\9\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \8\Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury, National Academy Press,
    Washington, DC, 2000.
         \9\High levels of mercury in seafood linked to infertility. BJOG:
    an International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology. 109:1121-5,
    2002; Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury, National Academy Press,
    Washington, DC, 2000.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Every ton of mercury emissions from power plants adds to the
    cumulative and persistent mercury loadings in our lakes and streams.
    EPA's IPM runs show that under the Administration's plan, power plants
    would add loadings of 163 tons more mercury through 2020 than under the
    EPA proposal.\10\ Because mercury is an accumulative toxin, these added
    tons will do their damage for scores of years after they are released.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \10\While most mercury comes from coal-fired power plants, the IPM
    runs reveal that several tons of mercury come from oil-fired plants
    that would not be covered under the Administration's plan (or under the
    EPA 2001 proposal). These tons of mercury are also of concern and
    should be covered by mercury controls under either new legislation or
    existing law.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The cumulative and persistent nature of mercury contamination
    underscores the need to minimize emissions from all sources. The weak
    and delayed mercury provisions in the Administration's plan will result
    in a failure to apply technology capable of removing power plants as a
    significant source of mercury. This means more continued mercury
    pollution not only from U.S. sources but from power plants worldwide.
    As we have demonstrated with another brain poison, lead, when the U.S.
    shows leadership in advancing policies to cut dangerous pollution, the
    rest of the world follows. The United Nations has identified global
    mercury pollution as a priority but the signal by the Administration's
    plan is that the U.S. will go slow. This will almost certainly
    translate into a global go-slow approach, meaning higher mercury
    emissions from the rest of the world continuing to be deposited in the
    U.S..

    The Administration Plan vs. the Clean Air Act
        It is also appropriate to assess whether the Administration's plan
    would deliver more pollution reduction than the current Clean Air Act,
    or less. In fact, the Administration's plan would result in millions of
    tons more pollution than faithful enforcement of the current law.
        SO2 and NOx: The Administration claims that its plan
    would reduce SO2 and NOx emissions by 35 million tons more
    than the current Clean Air Act through 2012. In fact, just the opposite
    is true: compared to enforcing the current law, the Administration's
    plan actually would allow major increases in SO2 and NOx in
    the next ten to 15 years.
        What accounts for these different assessments of the
    Administration's plan? The secret is in the Administration's yardstick.
    The Administration is comparing its proposal with a misleading
    ``baseline'' that expressly assumes EPA does not enforce the Clean Air
    Act. EPA Assistant Administrator Holmstead has candidly called this the
    ``Rip Van Winkle scenario.''\11\ The Rip Van Winkle scenario includes
    only the power plant pollution limits that are on the EPA books at this
    moment principally the SO2 reductions already required by
    the Title IV 1990 acid rain program and NOx cuts ordered under the
    ``NOx SIP call'' in 1997. The Rip Van Winkle scenario assumes that EPA
    goes to sleep, doing nothing more for more for a decade.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \11\Mr. Holmstead so characterized the Administration's baseline
    assumptions in a presentation to the National Association of Regulatory
    Utility Commissioners in Washington on February 24, 2003.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        But the existing Clean Air Act requires much more than that. It
    requires the States and EPA to bring our cities and counties into
    compliance with the national ambient air quality standards for fine
    particles and ozone (soot and smog pollution) before the end of this
    decade, unless accomplishing that task can be shown to be not possible.
    EPA concedes that meeting health standards will require steeper and
    faster reductions in power plant SO2 and NOx emissions than
    assumed in the Rip Van Winkle scenario or required by the
    Administration's plan.
        Undr the current Clean Air Act the pathway for meeting public
    health standards begins with the designation of which cities and
    counties across the country do not attain the standards, based on
    several years of pollution measurements. These ``nonattainment
    designations'' will take place in early 2004 for ozone and by the end
    of 2004 for fine particles.\12\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \12\The deadline for ozone designations is set forth in a consent
    decree entered in American Lung Ass'n, et al. v. Whitman, D.D.C. Civil
    Action No. 02-2239 (March 13, 2003). EPA has committed to an end-of-
    2004 deadline for fine particle designations as ``one of the Agency's
    highest priorities, due to the serious health implications of
    PM2.5 fine particle exposure. . . .'' Memorandum from
    Jeffrey R. Holmstead, Assistant Administrator, to Regional
    Administrators (Nov. 14, 2002), at 3.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The Clean Air Act then requires the States and EPA to implement the
    emission reduction measures needed to meet these public health
    standards within 5 years of these designations, by 2009, or sooner if
    feasible the law says ``as expeditiously as practicable.''\13\ Deadline
    extensions are allowed only if a State rigorously demonstrates that
    pollution control measures to meet health standards on time are not
    available or feasible.\14\ No such demonstrations have been made. While
    the States have primary responsibility to address local pollution
    sources, the Clean Air Act gives EPA special responsibility for
    interstate pollution that interferes with attainment of the health
    standards in areas downwind. EPA is required to order pollution
    reductions from upwind power plants where needed to bring areas in
    downwind States into timely compliance with the health standards.\15\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \13\Clean Air Act Sec. 7502(a)(2)(A). See Sierra Club v. EPA, 294
    F.3d 155, 162-63 (D.C. Cir. 2002) (State must adopt all reasonably
    available measures capable of advancing the date on which the polluted
    area will attain the NAAQS). ``In order for the EPA to determine
    whether an area has provided for implementation as expeditiously as
    practicable, the State must explain why the selected implementation
    schedule is the earliest schedule based on the specific circumstances
    of that area. Such claims cannot be general claims that more time is
    needed but rather should be specifically grounded in evidence of
    economic or technologic infeasibility.'' Memorandum from John S. Seitz,
    director of EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, to EPA
    regional air division directors (November 2, 1999), at 1
         \14\Clean Air Act Sec. 7502(a)(2)(A). EPA also may grant a maximum
    of two 1-year deadline extensions if an area has met all its
    requirements and experiences ``no more than a minimal number'' of
    violations of the health standards in the otherwise applicable deadline
    year.
         \15\Clean Air Act Sec. 7410(a)(2)(D)(I), Sec. 7426.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Administration spokesmen refuse to say how much reduction in power
    plants' SO2 and NOx pollution is needed under current law to
    meet the public health standards on time. But EPA's analyses of the
    Administration's plan show that it will not result in sufficient clean-
    up to attain the standards on the schedule required by current law.
        As I have already noted, the weak emission reductions in the
    Administration's plan leave 107 counties in nonattainment in 2010 and
    64 counties in 2020. As mentioned above, current law requires
    attainment by 2009 or sooner unless this schedule is not practicable.
    But the Administration has presented no analysis arguing that its 2018
    schedule for completing SO2 and NOx reductions is the
    fastest practicable schedule. Indeed, analyses on EPA's web site show
    that while there may be some labor constraints between now and 2005,
    those constraints disappear well before 2010.\16\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \16\U.S. EPA, Engineering and Economic Factors Affecting the
    Installation of Control Technologies for Multipollutant Strategies,
    October 2002.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        In short, current law requires more reductions sooner than the
    Administration's plan and EPA's analyses show deeper and faster
    reductions are feasible.
        The Administration may claim to be making a 35 million ton advance
    over the Rip Van Winkle scenario, but that is a phony measure. In fact
    an objective reading of the current law and EPA's analyses show that
    the Administration's plan would result in far more power plant
    SO2 and NOx air pollution compared with enforcing the
    existing Clean Air Act
        Mercury: The Clean Air Act also requires faster and deeper
    reductions of mercury than the Administration's plan. The current Act
    requires each mercury-emitting power plant to cut its emissions by
    installing the maximum available control technology (``MACT'').\17\ EPA
    must issue mercury standards in 2004.\18\ Compliance with the MACT
    standard is required 3 years later, at the end of 2007.\19\ Given the
    extreme toxicity of mercury, the current law does not permit emissions
    trading between mercury-emitting sources.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \17\Clean Air Act Sec. 7412(n)1)(A) provides that EPA shall issue
    MACT standards for power plants if the Administrator determines, after
    a study, that such standards are ``necessary and appropriate.'' The
    Administrator made this determination for power plant emissions of
    mercury in 2000. 65 Fed. Reg. 79,825 (December 20, 2000).
         \18\Puruant to a consent decree in NRDC v. EPA, et al., Case No.
    92-1415 (D.C. Circuit), EPA is required to propose a mercury MACT
    standard by the end of 2003, and to promulgate the standard by the end
    of 2004.
         \19\Clean Air Act Sec. 7412(i)((3)(A). Under certain
    circumstances, EPA may allow a specific facility one extra year for
    compliance. Id. Sec. 7412(i)((3)(B).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Because EPA has not yet issued the MACT standard, the
    Administration argues that no one can say how much mercury it will
    allow. Mercury MACT controls on other sources, however, provide a good
    indication of what is feasible. The MACT pollution controls on
    municipal and medical waste incinerators, for example, eliminate at
    least 90 percent of these sources' mercury emissions.
        In December 2001, EPA told the Edison Electric Institute, the power
    sector's main trade association, that an equivalent MACT standard for
    power plants would reduce mercury emissions from 48 tons to 5 tons
    nationwide by the end of 2007.\20\ In the regulatory development
    process now underway, EPA is evaluating performance requirements that
    would achieve a reduction to 5 tons per year. The weakest option being
    analyzed by the agency (at the request of the utility industry) is a
    level only slightly higher than the Administration's plan second-phase
    target of 15 tons.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \20\U.S. EPA, ``Discussion of Multipollutant Strategy, Meeting
    with Edison Electric Institute'' (Sept. 18, 2001), available at http://
    cta.policy.net/currentstatus.pdf.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        No one, including the Administration, has contended that a standard
    as weak as the Administration's plan first-phase target 26 tons could
    pass muster under the MACT requirement of current law. Even a MACT
    standard that reduced emissions by only 70 percent would cut mercury
    pollution to 15 tons 10 years earlier than the Administration
    legislation.
        The Administration's plan, however, would repeal the MACT
    requirement and delay any initial mercury reductions to 2010. After
    that, the Administration's plan would allow 26 tons per year from 2010
    through 2017, and 15 tons every year thereafter. Compared to the 5-ton
    level, the Administration's plan would allow more than five times as
    much mercury pollution through 2017, and three times as much each year
    after. From 2008 through 2020, that would be 284 tons more cumulative
    loading of mercury under the Administration's plan.

    II. THE ADMINISTRATION PLAN REPEALS AND WEAKENS CRITICAL CLEAN AIR ACT
                                  PROTECTIONS

        The Administration's bill takes with one hand while it also takes
    with the other. In addition to allowing more pollution than needed to
    protect public health or allowed by current law, the Administration's
    bill repeals or weakens each of the specific programs and requirements
    in the current Clean Air Act that are effectively reducing power plant
    pollution today and that will reduce it further tomorrow.
        The repealers, exemptions and weakening provisions in the
    Administration's bill do great damage to fundamental precepts of the
    Clean Air Act that have helped deliver cleaner air for over thirty
    years.
          The current law requires cleanup of polluted areas as
    quickly as practicable but the Administration's plan would grant
    automatic delays to 2015.
          The current law requires new sources locating in polluted
    areas to meet state-of-the-art pollution standards and avoid making
    existing health problems worse but the Administration's plan would
    exempt all sources (even those not covered by any cap) from those
    requirements until 2015, allowing more than a decade's worth of new
    pollution sources to make air quality worse.
          The current law gives States victimized by interstate
    pollution effective rights to remedy that pollution but the
    Administration's plan makes those remedies ineffective against power
    plants and prohibits any reductions from power plants under these
    provisions until 2012.
          The current law requires new and modified power plants to
    limit pollution increases to avoid turning clean air areas into
    polluted areas but the Administration's bill repeals this safeguard
    except for a narrow 30 mile circle around certain national parks and
    wilderness areas.
          The current law requires new and modified power plants to
    meet up to date emission performance standards to protect areas with
    clean air but the Administration repeals this safeguard for nearly all
    existing plants and replaces it with a more polluting performance
    standard for new plants.
          The current law requires EPA to adopt rules to minimize
    toxic pollution from power plants but the Administration's bill repeals
    most of those requirements and replaces them with a weak performance
    requirement for mercury that is delayed 10 years from the current law's
    schedule.
        The Administration defends all of these dismantling provisions as
    eliminating programs that are not required since its plan establishes
    national caps for certain power plant pollutants. But the current
    Administration ignores what the first Bush Administration recognized
    that national caps cannot protect local air quality and must not
    override the tools that are in the law to protect communities from
    pollution increases that harm local air quality. Neither the first Bush
    Administration nor Congress sought to repeal the tools that protect
    local air quality when the acid rain cap program was enacted in 1990.
    Repeal of those tools is no more justified now.
        Delaying Attainment of Public Health Standards. Section I of this
    testimony sets forth EPA's legal obligations under the current Clean
    Air Act to assure the attainment of the national ambient air quality
    standards for fine particles and ozone (soot and smog) by 2009 at the
    latest, or sooner (``as expeditiously as practicable'').
        The Administration's bill would postpone the attainment deadline
    for the country's unhealthy air areas by 6 years or more. As long as
    States could show that their polluted areas would attain the smog and
    soot standards by 2015, those areas would be labeled ``transitional''
    rather than ``nonattainment'' and be granted automatic extensions of
    the deadlines to meet health standards.\21\ Since the requirement to
    attain the standards ``as expeditiously as practicable'' applies only
    to nonattainment areas,\22\ States would be under no obligation to
    bring air quality into line with the health-based standards any earlier
    than 2015. In other words, the Administration's bill would force as
    many as 175 million Americans to breathe harmful amounts of air
    pollution for at least 6 years longer than current law allows.\23\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \21\H.R. 999 I.H. (``Sec. 3. Other Amendments''), at 227 lns. 5-
    22.
         \22\See 42 U.S.C. Sec. 7502(a)(2).
         \23\Current law permits limited postponement of the 2009 deadline
    only where the EPA makes an appropriateness determination ``considering
    the severity of nonattainment and the availability and feasibility of
    pollution control measures.'' Id. Sec. 7502(a)(2)(B). See also id.
    Sec. 7502(a)(2)(C), (D). The Administration's bill does not condition
    the availability of the 2015 postponement on any such determination.
    See H.R. 999 I.H. at 227 lns. 5-22.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        By labeling hundreds of polluted counties ``transitional'' rather
    than ``nonattainment,'' the Administration's bill also would allow
    every major industrial source built or modified in those areas to make
    health problems worse by evading the lowest achievable emissions rate
    (``LAER'') and offset requirements of current law. Under current law,
    anyone wishing to build or modify a major source of air pollution in a
    ``nonattainment'' area must ensure that the source employs state-of-
    the-art methods to minimize its pollution (LAER) and must offset any
    added emissions so as not to degrade the already poor air quality in
    the area.\24\ This requirement applies not just to power plants, but to
    all other major air pollution sources (oil refineries, chemical plants,
    manufacturing facilities, etc.) as well.\25\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \24\42 U.S.C. Sec. Sec. 7502(c)(5), 7503(a)(2), (c).
         \25\Id. Sec. 7502(c)(5).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Under the Administration's plan, these health safeguards would no
    longer apply in areas relabeled as ``transitional.'' In other words,
    the Administration's bill would make it easier for the owners of oil
    refineries, chemical facilities, paper mills, and power plants to churn
    out additional pollution in hundreds of counties where the air is
    already unhealthy to breathe. It is important to emphasize that while
    the Administration's plan caps only power plant emissions the bill
    would create this loophole for all major industrial sources. Amazingly,
    the Administration has not offered a word of justification for this
    remarkable assault on the Act's public health safeguards.
        Weakening Safeguards Against Upwind Pollution. Pollution from power
    plants in upwind States is responsible for violations of the soot and
    smog standards in many downwind States. The delay of attainment
    deadlines through the ``transitional area'' scheme described above
    would assure that many such downwind States receive more pollution
    transported from upwind areas over the next 12 years. The
    Administration's bill exacerbates this problem by eliminating, as a
    practical matter, the rights of downwind States under section 126 of
    current law to remedy pollution transported from upwind sources. Now
    that Federal courts have upheld the rights of States to combat
    interstate pollution, the Administration's bill would effectively
    eliminate these rights by establishing a series of new, insurmountable
    tests before a harmed downwind State can gain relief. And even if the
    State is able to pass these new extreme tests, the bill prohibits any
    emission reduction from power plants before 2012, no matter how
    compelling the case is that the power plants are creating serious
    health problems that can only be abated with stronger emission
    controls. Even if EPA itself believes that better controls are
    warranted and essential, it too is prohibited from requiring any
    cleanup from power plants before 2012.
        Section 3(r)(6) of the Administration's bill amends section 126 of
    the current Clean Air Act to prohibit EPA from ordering reductions in
    power plant pollution transported from upwind States unless EPA makes a
    series of new, onerous findings: EPA must find that every cheaper
    reduction (in terms of cost per ton of emissions and in terms of cost
    per microgram of air quality improvement) has already been made from
    industrial boilers, on-road mobile sources, off-road mobile sources,
    and any other category identified by EPA.\26\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \26\See Sec. 3(r)(6)(D) (adding CAA Sec. 126(d)(2)(B)(i) & (ii)).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        These provisions would effectively override key court decisions
    that have upheld EPA's reasonable interpretation of the Act set forth
    in two rulemakings addressing interstate transport of NOx
    pollution.\27\ These cases upheld EPA's determination to require
    reduction of upwind emissions that ``contribute significantly'' to
    downwind pollution. While it was necessary for EPA to show that these
    reductions are cost-effective, the agency was not required to show that
    all other more cost-effective ways to reduce emissions and
    concentrations had been exhaustively required first.\28\ In doing so,
    the courts upheld EPA's rejection of far more onerous and unmanageable
    approaches pushed by industry and opposing upwind States.\29\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \27\63 Fed. Reg. 57356 (Oct. 27, 1998) (NOx SIP Call rulemaking);
    64 Fed. Reg. 28250 (May 25, 1999) and 65 Fed. Reg. 2674 (Jan. 18, 2000)
    (Section 126 rulemakings).
         \28\See Michigan v. EPA, 213 F.3d 663 (D.C. Cir. 2000) (upholding
    NOx SIP Call approach); Appalachian Power Co. v. EPA, 249 F.3d 1032
    (D.C. Cir. 2001) (upholding same approach in section 126 rulemaking).
         \29\See Michigan, 213 F.3d at 675-680; Appalachian Power at 249
    F.3d at 1044-1051.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        In particular, EPA found in 1998 that the second approach
    demonstrating cost-effectiveness per microgram of air quality
    improvement would be utterly impractical. Furthermore, it would be
    inconsistent with an emissions trading approach, which requires
    emissions to be treated as equivalent on a ton-for-ton basis, and
    cannot work if each ton of emissions must be weighted differently
    depending on its distance from a particular spot where air quality
    improvement per microgram is assessed.\30\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \30\U.S. EPA, ``Rulemaking for Section 126 Petitions--Responses to
    Comments Which are Outside the Scope of the June 24, 1999 Notice of
    Proposed Rulemaking,'' Docket A-97-43, XII-A-01, 65 Fed. Reg. 52931
    (Aug. 31, 2000).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        In addition to imposing new, essentially insurmountable tests, the
    bill would block EPA from granting downwind States any relief from
    upwind power plant pollution until after 2012. This stands in stark
    contrast to the extremely expedited relief structure of the current
    Clean Air Act. As EPA has noted:
        Section 126 provides a tool for downwind States, the entities with
    most at stake, to force EPA to confront the issue directly. It also
    sets up an abbreviated, and hence potentially faster, process to
    achieve emission reductions. . . . . In contrast [to the SIP process]
    Congress required very expeditious EPA action on a [section 126]
    petition and from 3 months up to 3 years for sources to comply.\31\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \31\65 Fed. Reg. 2674, 2681 (Jan. 18, 2000).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        In an example of ``Catch-22,'' section 3(r)(6) of the
    Administration's bill states that before giving a State relief from
    transported pollution from power plants, EPA must first determine that
    the State has achieved all more cost-effective emissions reductions (on
    both a per-ton and per-microgram basis) from both on-road and off-road
    mobile sources. But this places States in an impossible situation,
    since the Clean Air Act elsewhere preempts States from controlling
    emissions from on-road vehicles and engines, CAA Sec. 209(a), and
    nonroad vehicles and engines, CAA Sec. 209(e).\32\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \32\States may control these mobile sources of emissions only by
    adopting California standards. CAA Sec. Sec. 177 & 209(e)(2).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        As EPA has previously recognized, ``Congress provided section 126
    to downwind States as a critical remedy to address pollution problems
    affecting their citizens that are otherwise beyond their control, and
    EPA has no authority to refuse to act under this section.''\33\ But the
    Administration's legislative response to the problem of transported air
    pollution is to saddle downwind, polluted States with insurmountable
    barriers to relief.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \33\65 Fed. Reg. at 2681/1 (emphasis added).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Eliminating Safeguards Against Pollution Hotspots. Under the
    Administration's bill, a power plant can pollute at any level so long
    as it buys sufficient pollution allowances credits from other
    plants.\34\ The fact that power plant pollution may decline nationwide,
    however, provides no protection to the communities affected by a plant
    whose emissions stay the same, or even increase, because of its owner's
    reliance on emissions trading. The ``New Source Review'' (NSR)
    provisions in the Clean Air Act provide important protection against
    the emergence of ``pollution havens'' or ``hotspots'' in response to an
    emissions trading system. NSR requires any person planning to build a
    new major pollution source, or to change an existing one in a way that
    will cause an emissions increase, to demonstrate that the source will
    use the most effective pollution control methods available and that its
    emissions increase will not degrade air quality either locally or in
    downwind communities\35\ or national parks.\36\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \34\H.R. 999, (``Sec. 403. Allowance System'') at 14 ln. 15 15 ln.
    18.
         \35\42 U.S.C. Sec. Sec. 7475, 7501-7503. Current law requires a
    company to demonstrate that the planned construction or other change
    will not cause or contribute to pollution in excess of certain maximum
    allowable increases and maximum allowable concentrations that are
    separated from the NAAQS by a safety margin. 42 U.S.C.
    Sec. 7475(a)(3)(A). The administration's bill simply requires a
    demonstration that the planned activity will not cause or contribute to
    a violations of or inability to achieve the NAAQS itself. H.R. 999 I.H.
    (Sec. 483(c)(1), (2)) at 224 ln. 15 225 ln. 8.
         \36\Current law requires a company to demonstrate that the planned
    construction or other change will not degrade visibility or other air
    quality related values at any national park. 42 U.S.C. Sec. 7475(a)(5),
    (d). If the administration's bill were enacted, such a demonstration
    would not be required unless the plant in question were located within
    fifty kilometers of a park. H.R. 999 I.H. (Sec. 483(b)) at 224 lns. 8-
    14. This despite the fact that emissions from major pollution sources
    have been shown to have a negative impact on parks as far as 700
    kilometers away. See Gebhart, K., ``Preliminary Particulate Sulfur
    Source Attributions for BRAVO by Trajectory Mass Balance Regressions''
    (presentation for BRAVO conference call on November 21, 2002) (analysis
    on file with the Clean Air Task Force).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The Administration's bill would eliminate Federal New Source Review
    provisions for power plants, however.\37\ If the bill were enacted, a
    company would be free to cause even massive pollution increases by
    building a new plant or expanding an old one without adopting up-to-
    date pollution controls or determining whether air quality will get
    worse locally or downwind.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \37\See H.R. 999 (``Sec. 483. Exemption from Major Source
    Preconstruction Review Requirements and Best Available Retrofit Control
    Technology Requirements'') at 223 lns. 10-14 (``An affected unit shall
    not be considered a major emitting facility or major stationary source,
    or a part of a major emitting facility or major stationary source for
    purposes of compliance with the requirements of parts C and part D of
    title I.'').
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        To replace the Federal NSR program, the Administration's bill calls
    on States to submit State Implementation Plan (SIP) revisions to create
    a new and less protective State New Source Review program. The bill
    sets no deadlines for these SIP revisions. The bill does not clearly
    provide that the public must have an opportunity to comment on a permit
    application. The bill authorizes new loopholes for such State programs
    that would allow existing power plants to increase emissions by tens of
    thousands of tons each with no public process. And the bill exempts
    existing and new power plants everywhere in the country (except within
    a narrow 30-mile circle around national parks) from the current law's
    safeguards for clean air areas.
        Replacing Up-To-Date Technology with Obsolete Standards. In place
    of repealed requirements for case-by-case determination of up-to-date
    pollution control performance, the Administration's bill would
    substitute a requirement that EPA establish certain emissions standards
    that would apply to new power plants.\38\ The bill sets these standards
    at much more polluting levels, however, than the emissions levels of
    plants being built today. In other words, these standards are already
    obsolete and behind the curve of current requirements. For example:
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \38\Id. (Sec. 481(b)(1), (c)(1), (d)) at 205 lns. 1-9, 207 ln. 9
    211 ln. 7.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        For boilers and integrated gasification combined cycle (``IGCC'')
    plants, the bill sets a SO2 emissions limit of 2.0 lb/
    MWh.\39\ Three recently issued permits for coal-fired boilers set
    SO2 emissions limits of 1.0, 1.2, and 1.0 lb/MWh,
    respectively.\40\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \39\Id. (Sec. 481(c)(1)((A)) at 207 lns. 17-18.
         \40\Wygen 2 plant in Wyoming; Roundup plant in Montana; IPP plant
    in Utah.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        For boilers and IGCC plants, the bill sets a NOx emissions limit of
    1.0 lb/MWh.\41\ Three recently issued permits for coal-fired boilers
    each set NOx emissions limits of 0.7 lb/MWh.\42\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \41\H.R. 999 (Sec. 481(c)(1)(B)) at 207 lns. 19-20.
         \42\Wygen 2 plant in Wyoming; Roundup plant in Montana; IPP plant
    in Utah.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        For boilers and IGCC plants, the bill sets a PM emissions limit of
    0.2 lb/MWh.\43\ Three recently issued permits for coal-fired boilers
    set PM emissions limits of 0.12, 0.15, and 0.15 lb/MWh,
    respectively.\44\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \43\H.R. 999 (Sec. 481(c)(1)(C)) at 207 lns. 21-22.
         \44\Wygen 2 plant in Wyoming; Roundup plant in Montana; IPP plant
    in Utah.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The bill does not place any obligation on EPA to update these
    already-obsolete emissions standards until 8 years after the agency
    incorporates them into its regulations.\45\ Even then, the bill gives
    the agency discretion to avoid reviewing and updating the
    standards.\46\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \45\H.R. 999 (Sec. 481(e)(1)) at 211 lns. 8-18.
         \46\Id. (Sec. 481(e)(2)) at 212 lns. 3-8.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        This is a sharp contrast with current law, under which the case-by-
    case review of LAER and (in areas other than nonattainment areas)
    ``best available control technology'' (BACT) assures that emission
    performance for new and modified plants keeps pace with improvements in
    pollution control capabilities. Because of BACT and LAER, the state-of-
    the-art in industrial pollution control has repeatedly graduated to
    successively higher levels of environmental performance as sources were
    built or modified over the last two decades.
        For example, a review of EPA's data base for BACT and LAER
    determinations reveals that over just the past 10 years, the state-of-
    the-art in NOx emissions controls for utility boilers and furnaces has
    advanced from no controls (``good combustion practices'') to low NOx
    burners to selective catalytic reduction (``SCR'') to selective non-
    catalytic reduction (``SNCR'') and circulating fluidized bed
    (``CFB'').\47\ Recent determinations by permitting authorities show
    that further improvements are in the wings.\48\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \47\See http://cfpub1.epa.gov/rblc/cfm/basicsearch.cfm.
         \48\See, e.g. Letter from Richard L. Goodyear, permit programs
    manager, State of New Mexico Air Quality Bureau, to Larry Messinger,
    Mustang Energy Company (December 23, 2002), at 1-2 (``The analysis must
    include a discussion of the technical feasibility and availability of
    IGCC and CFB for the proposed site in McKinley County . . . .'').
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        As EPA and the courts have recognized, Congress intended the Clean
    Air Act to perform this ``technology-forcing'' function.\49\ The
    Administration's bill erases that function, leaving in its place static
    emissions standards that do not even represent the state-of-the-art in
    pollution control today.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \49\See ``Background Statement on the Environmental Protection
    Agency's Top-Down Policy'' (June 13, 1989) (citing S. Rep. No. 95-252,
    95th Cong., 1st Sess. 31 (1977)), reprinted in, 3 A Legislative History
    of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 at 1405; 123 Cong. Rec. A9171
    (remarks of Senator Edmund G. Muskie), reprinted in 3 Legislative
    History at 729. See also WEPCO v. EPA, 893 F.2d 901, 909 (7th Cir.
    1990).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        EPA Assistant Administrator Holmstead has acknowledged in testimony
    delivered before this committee that the New Source Review requirements
    have not adversely impacted construction or investment associated with
    new power plants. He testified that:
        With regard to the energy sector, EPA found that the NSR program
    has not significantly impeded investment in new power plants or
    refineries. For the utility industry, this is evidenced by significant
    recent and future planned investment in new power plants.\50\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \50\Testimony delivered Assistant Administrator Jeffrey Holmstead
    to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works on July
    16, 2002.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        This committee should recall that in 1990, the first President Bush
    did not seek to repeal these safeguards when he sought a cap and trade
    program for SO2 from power plants and Congress did not enact
    such a repeal. Those programs have worked in tandem for the past 13
    years. The Act's safeguards for local air quality have not interfered
    with the acid rain cap and trade program and have not prevented the
    very large economic savings provided by the cap and trade mechanism.
    Experience proves that both programs can work together and this
    Congress should not ignore that fact.
        Eliminating Protections for National Parks. The Administration's
    bill would exempt owners of new and modified power plants from the
    obligation to meet up to date pollution performance standards (BACT)
    and examine the impacts of any added pollution on national parks or
    wildernesses--called ``Class I areas``--(except those within 30 miles
    of the plant). The bill also eliminates the role of the Federal land
    manager (typically the National Parks Service superintendent for a
    national park) in assuring that the air quality of these treasured
    lands is protected.
        Under current law, if a new or expanded pollution source could
    affect a Class I area, the Federal land manager has an opportunity to
    review the draft permit and an accompanying air quality analysis to
    assure that factors relevant to protecting national parks and
    wilderness areas are taken into consideration, and that harmful effects
    are mitigated. The Federal land manager's review would be eliminated
    under the Administration's bill for all plants outside the 30 mile
    cordon around each park or wilderness.
        The Administration's bill would also repeal the current Clean Air
    Act program to lift the haze shrouding the nation's parks by obligating
    the States to require the best available retrofit technology (``BART'')
    on all major sources of air pollution built between 1962 and 1977 that
    contribute to the haze.\51\ The Administration's bill exempts all power
    plants the primary contributor to park haze from the BART
    requirement.\52\ In so doing, the bill lets off the hook those
    intransigent companies that have not yet installed the best available
    retrofit technology on their plants.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \51\42 U.S.C. Sec. 7491(b)(2)(A).
         \52\H.R. 999 (Sec. 483(a)) at 223 lns. 10-18.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        If the Administration elected to enforce the requirement, instead
    of lifting it, the installation of BART on just the largest power
    plants would reduce annual SO2 emissions by 4.5 million
    tons, and annual NOx emissions by 1.9 million tons.\53\ Those
    reductions alone would be equivalent to what the Administration's bill
    would purportedly achieve in its entire 8-10 year first phase.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \53\MSB Associates, analysis using EPA list of BART eligible
    sources exceeding 750 MW (analysis on file with the Clean Air Task
    Force).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Eliminating Protections for Other Areas With Clean Air. The
    Administration's bill weakens air quality safeguards across the rest of
    the country. Except in the 30 mile cordon around our national parks and
    wildernesses, the bill eliminates any case-by-case review of proposed
    new power plants anywhere in the country. Under current law, plants
    locating in the vast majority of the country areas classified as
    ``Class II PSD areas,'' with air quality better than the national
    health standards must undergo New Source Review and demonstrate that
    they will be equipped with ``best available control technology'' (BACT)
    and will not cause excessive degradation of air quality (``pollution
    increment consumption'') in the surrounding area. And, as already
    mentioned, plants locating in nonattainment areas must meet the
    ``lowest achievable emission rate'' (LAER) and must offset any
    additional pollution.
        The Administration's bill repeals these requirements, creating a
    vacuum where there is no federally enforceable obligation for new or
    modified power plants to provide anyone with notice of their intent to
    build or expand, no requirement to review air quality impacts, and no
    requirement to case-by-case review of emission control performance. The
    only requirement would be to meet the obsolete national standard
    described above.
        Weakening Safeguards Against Hazardous Air Pollution. I have
    already described how the Administration's bill would repeal the
    current Clean Air Act's requirement for applying ``maximum achievable
    control technology'' (MACT) to power plants to curb their mercury
    emissions. The bill requires no mercury controls until 2010 (a 2-year
    delay over the current law) and substitutes much weaker mercury caps in
    place of the plant-by-plant MACT requirement. For 2010 through 2017,
    the bill's 26 ton cap represents merely the mercury reductions
    incidental to the bill's phase-one caps for SO2 and NOx.
    Mercury cuts beyond these incidental reductions are not achieved until
    2018. In other words, the Administration's 3-pollutant bill is
    effectively a 2-pollutant bill until 2018.
        Also repealed with mercury MACT is the current law's requirement
    that EPA establish MACT standards for all hazardous air pollutants
    emitted by power plants, not just mercury. For hazardous pollutants
    other than mercury, the bill leaves only the authority to set
    ``residual risk'' standards through a complex risk-based process, but
    the earliest that those regulations are permitted to take effect is
    2018 a full 11 years after the MACT compliance deadline of the current
    Clean Air Act. Moreover, the bill repeals the Clean Air Act's
    ``residual risk'' protections entirely for mercury without regard to
    any health risks that remain under the bill's weaker mercury caps.\54\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \54\Sec. 3(a)(5).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The Administration's bill allows unrestricted emissions trading of
    mercury, something never before allowed under the Clean Air Act for a
    hazardous air pollutant. The current Clean Air Act requires mercury
    reductions at each power plant, based on the emissions reductions
    achievable through advanced technologies applied to individual
    emissions units. By allowing mercury trading, the bill would allow some
    power plants not to reduce their emissions at all. Instead, they could
    buy mercury emission allowances from other power plants and do nothing
    to stop contamination of local lakes and streams. Some plants could
    even increase their mercury emissions.
        Indeed, EPA's own analyses of the Administration's bill acknowledge
    mercury pollution increases above today's levels from ``specific
    sources in some States,'' due to the trading features of the bill and
    the bill's repeal of the 2007 MACT standard.\55\ This dirtier outcome
    would not be allowed if the plant-specific MACT standard were to remain
    in effect. EPA's data also show that parts of New England, the Great
    Lakes, Gulf Coast region and other areas will receive only very small
    reductions in mercury deposition under the bill.\56\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \55\See U.S. EPA, ``Technical Support Package for Clear Skies,''
    Section B: Human Health and Environmental Benefits, at 44.
         \56\Id.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Because unrestricted trading of mercury emissions could lead to
    toxic hotspots where mercury contamination increases, the Clean Air Act
    as well as other legislative proposals (notably the Clean Power and
    Clean Smokestacks Acts)--bar trading in mercury emissions. Hotspot
    risks under the Administration's bill are made worse by the fact that
    the bill does not require continuous emissions monitoring (CEMS) for
    mercury. EPA itself has identified continuous monitoring and reporting
    as design features essential to the environmental integrity of the acid
    rain trading program.\57\ Mercury emissions trading is allowed even
    without continuous monitoring so long as the Administrator determines
    that ``CEMS for mercury with appropriate vendor guarantees are not
    commercially available.''\58\ The responsible approach would be to make
    any mercury trading (if some carefully limited program were shown to
    prevent hotspots) contingent on the development of reliable continuous
    monitoring systems for the pollutant.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \57\Testimony of Jeffrey Holmstead, Assistant Administrator,
    Office of Air & Radiation, U.S. EPA, Before the Subcommittee on Public
    Health of the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, U.S.
    Senate, at 4-5, September 3, 2002.
         \58\Sec. 405(a)(2)(B)(ii).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    III. THE ADMINISTRATION BILL ALLOWS UNLIMITED GROWTH IN CARBON DIOXIDE
                  FROM POWER PLANTS, WORSENING GLOBAL WARMING

        As you know, even though electric power plants are responsible for
    40 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the
    Administration's bill does not contain any provision to reduce or even
    limit the growth in these emissions. This feature of the
    Administration's bill is not just an omission; it is a serious
    affirmative mistake that will make it more difficult for the U.S. to
    take responsible action in the near future to begin addressing the real
    dangers of global warming.
        The Administration's bill would set in motion major capital
    expenditures at existing power plants over most of the next two
    decades. To implement such a program without addressing CO2
    emissions is to invite shortsighted investment decisions and promote
    even greater resistance to proposals to limit CO2 when we do
    decide to act. A choice to ignore CO2 emissions in a power
    plant bill is not just a choice to leave this decision open for
    tomorrow. It is a decision that will raise the cost and difficulty of
    beginning to address the nation's largest source of global warming
    pollution.
        Such a choice is not responsible. Delay will turn what is still a
    manageable threat into a runaway, unmanageable problem. In the national
    security context, the current Administration has no difficulty
    understanding that waiting until a danger has fully developed runs the
    risk of foreclosing our ability to avert that danger. This logic
    applies strongly to the danger posed by global warming. If we wait
    until this danger has fully developed, it will be too late to prevent.
        Global warming is a problem that has enormous built-in inertia. The
    most important global warming gas, CO2, stays in the
    atmosphere for hundreds of years. The largest sources of
    CO2, fossil-fueled power plants, have lifetimes of 50 years
    and more. Managing the threat of global warming is like navigating a
    supertanker to avoid running aground we have to start altering course
    long before we arrive at the reef. While in the global warming context
    we may not have identified exactly how close we are to the reef or how
    severely our ship will be damaged from striking it, it is a fact that
    if we steam ahead with our current energy systems until we have all the
    evidence required to satisfy the skeptics, we run very large risks of
    locking ourselves into very large-scale unavoidable damage.
        We are already unalterably committed to a future in which the
    concentration of global warming gases will be substantially higher than
    pre-industrial levels. To avoid reaching concentrations that are
    several times pre-industrial levels, we will need to change the
    technology we use to generate power and for transportation. In the
    decision whether to include CO2 in a power plant emission
    control bill, this Congress will either stimulate investors to get
    serious about developing and using new climate-friendly power
    technology or it will send a signal to procrastinate.
        Advocates of delay argue we should not act until we know exactly
    how sensitive the climate is to added CO2 and exactly how
    harmful a given temperature rise will be. Unfortunately, we cannot put
    the world on ``pause'' while we do more research. We cannot afford to
    wait for resolution of these uncertainties before we begin to change
    energy investments. The CO2 we emit may cause a temperature
    rise at the high end of published estimates, the low end, or in
    between; the damage done by a specific temperature rise also may be
    larger or smaller. But once we know for sure, it will be too late to
    change course. The fact is that continuing on our current path will
    commit us to an outcome that we will not be able to undo.
        A paper by Ken Caldeira and colleagues published 2 weeks ago in
    Science magazine demonstrates the danger of continued procrastination.
    Using mid-range estimates of climate sensitivity, the authors conclude
    that we would need to be building the equivalent of about 20
    CO2-emission-free power plants a week worldwide, starting
    now, to keep global temperatures from increasing more than 2
    Centigrade.\59\ Consider that global temperature in the last ice age
    was 5 C cooler than today and you can appreciate that 2 would be a very
    big change. On our current path, however, the world is on track to add
    the equivalent of less than 2 CO2-emission-free plants per
    week between now and 2030\60\. The authors go on to demonstrate that
    even assuming a best-case outcome for these uncertainties, we still
    need a massive increase in CO2-emission-free energy
    resources compared to current forecasts.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \59\K. Caldeira et al., ``Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty and the
    Need for Energy Without CO2 Emission,'' Science 299, 2052 (2003).
         \60\International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2002,
    October 2002.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Today people talk about the need to design climate policy to avoid
    ``premature retirement'' of existing capacity. But tomorrow's
    ``existing'' capacity is being designed and financed today and it is
    not being designed to be climate friendly. Policy procrastination just
    locks us in to more high-carbon capacity that will either have to be
    retired ``prematurely'' or will emit amounts of CO2 that
    could make it impossible to stabilize concentrations of global warming
    emissions at safe levels.
        The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that the
    United States will build the equivalent of over 1350 medium-sized
    fossil energy power plants between now and 2025 (405,000 MW).\61\ The
    path we are on today will result in skyrocketing emissions of
    CO2 in the U.S. and globally. Figure 9 shows current
    forecasts for the U.S. and the world over the next 25-30 years: U.S.
    emissions are projected to increase by 40 percent and world emissions
    by nearly 70 percent over year 2000 levels. These emissions will stay
    in the air for hundreds of years making the task of protecting the
    climate that much harder and more expensive.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \61\U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook
    2003.

    The Need to Set Real Policies Now
        The problem of delay is particularly intense with respect to the
    electric power sector. As we know, power plants have extremely long
    lives. There are plants in the U.S. more than 60 years old that are
    still operating today. New plants built in the next decade or two will
    be operating in the third quarter of this century, and their cumulative
    emissions will determine how much the climate warms. While we
    procrastinate, energy demand keeps growing and more investments are
    made in power plants that are no less carbon-emitting than yesterday's
    plants.
        Which brings us to the choice before you. Including provisions to
    limit CO2 in a power plant bill can speed the process of
    bringing advanced technologies to market; leaving CO2 out
    will keep that activity on the back burner. Analyses discussed in
    NRDC's testimony to the full committee in June 2002 show that it is
    possible to craft legislation that limits power plant CO2
    with modest impacts on the economy.\62\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \62\See Testimony of David G. Hawkins on S. 556, June 12, 2002.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The Administration and many in Congress have resisted including a
    binding limit on CO2 in power plant legislation out of an
    apparent belief that any binding cap will have unacceptable impacts on
    electricity rates and fuel diversity. That is not correct.
        For example, even the Administration's own analyses conclude that
    some versions of binding CO2 caps would have very modest
    impacts on electricity rates and fuel use, even when using a number of
    conservative (and we believe, flawed) assumptions.\63\ In September and
    October 2001, both EPA and EIA analyzed a binding carbon cap for the
    electric sector using a set of requirements specified by Chairman
    Voinovich, former Senator Smith, and Senator Brownback.\64\ Among the
    scenarios examined by EIA and EPA were requirements to cut
    SO2, NOx, and mercury emissions by 75 percent from 1999
    levels in two stages (2007 and 2012) and to cap power sector
    CO2 emissions at forecasted 2008 levels.\65\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \63\A number of flaws in the administration's analyses of ``four-
    pollutant'' bills are described in NRDC's testimony of June 12, 2002 at
    the full Committee hearing on S. 556, the Clean Power Act. Testimony of
    David G. Hawkins at 12-16.
         \64\Energy Information Administration, ``Reducing Emissions of
    Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Mercury from Electric Power
    Plants,'' September 2001. (``EIA S-V-B report'') and U.S. EPA,
    ``Analysis of Multi-Emissions Proposals for the U.S. Electricity
    Sector,'' October 2001.
         \65\Letter of June 8, 2001 from Senators Smith, Voinovich, and
    Brownback to John Weiner, EIA, reproduced in EIA S-V-B report at
    Appendix A. Compliance with the CO2 cap could be achieved with on-
    system reductions or credits for ``sinks'' enhancements or reductions
    from other source categories. EIA's report calculated costs assuming
    that only CO2 emission reductions from U.S. energy facilities would be
    used for compliance.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        EIA's report calculated this set of requirements would result in an
    average electricity rate of 7.1 cents per kwh, compared to a 1999
    average electricity rate of 6.7 cents per kwh. EIA projected coal
    consumption in 2020 would be the same as in 1999.\66\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \66\While this result represents a decrease in coal consumption
    from no-control forecasts, EIA's report assumed no penetration of coal-
    gasification technology in the electric sector, even by 2020. This is
    inconsistent with the Department of Energy's programmatic goals for
    this technology. EPA's report on the S-V-B scenario forecasts smaller
    price and fuel impacts than EIA's, due to EPA's broader assumed trading
    options than EIA assumed.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        While power sector CO2 emissions need to decline below
    2008 levels, the key point is the need to set a schedule now for
    limiting and then decreasing emissions of CO2. By adopting a
    schedule now, you can provide the maximum lead-time for the industry
    and achieve long-term reductions at the most gradual rate of change. By
    adopting a schedule for limiting carbon emissions you put market forces
    to work to deliver the clean energy resources we will need to meet
    economic growth without disrupting the climate that strongly influences
    the quality of life in our country and others around the globe.
        We can do three things to limit carbon emissions from energy use.
    First, produce and use energy more efficiently. Second, dramatically
    increase our reliance on renewable energy resources. Third, pursue
    methods to capture and permanently store CO2 from the fossil
    energy sources we continue to use. All three of these methods will be
    stimulated by adopting a program to limit CO2 emissions from
    the power sector. All three will languish if Congress ignores
    CO2 in a power plant bill.
        Members of this committee and others in Congress are concerned
    about the impact of climate policy on coal. The U.S. and other large
    countries, including China, India, Russia (to mention just a few) have
    abundant coal resources. While coal and other fossil fuels have
    continuing environmental impacts, including global warming emissions,
    the reality is that large amounts of coal will continue to be used.
        Fortunately, technologies in commercial operation today demonstrate
    it is feasible to capture CO2 from coal-based power plants
    in a form that can be kept out of the atmosphere provided that suitable
    geologic repositories are developed. As I mentioned in my June 2002
    testimony to the full committee, in the U.S. today we inject over 30
    million tons of CO2 annually into oil fiqelds to recover
    additional oil. Yet, none of that CO2 is supplied by power
    plants. Rather it is pulled out of natural CO2 reservoirs
    and piped hundreds of miles to be stuck back in the ground.
        Because industrial CO2 can still be emitted to the air
    in unlimited amounts for free, there is not an adequate economic
    incentive to use and optimize existing technology to capture these
    emissions. Nor is there an adequate incentive to invest to bring down
    the costs of today's gasification and CO2 capture systems.
        Ironically, the current policy procrastination has made the U.S.
    coal industry's posture a very uncertain one. No one believes that
    action on global warming can be delayed indefinitely and this causes
    investors to be leery of large new investments in conventional coal-
    fired power plants. On the other hand, without a policy resolution,
    setting forth a program to limit CO2 emissions over time,
    the uncertainty is too great for most investors to develop and plan to
    deploy advanced coal technologies like gasification and capture
    systems.
        In sum, failure to include CO2 limits in a power plant
    bill has real costs. It would keep the U.S. and the world on a path of
    accelerating CO2 emissions a path that is unacceptably risky
    given what we already know about the potential of global warming to
    change our lives for the worse. It would steer investments at the
    margin to patching up old, existing capacity that should be replaced
    with modern, efficient systems. And it would continue the policy
    uncertainty that operates as an obstacle today to business planners
    considering what energy investments they should pursue.
        The good news is that by acting now to adopt a schedule for
    limiting CO2 emissions we can change behavior and make it
    easier to address global warming. For example, the International Energy
    Agency forecasts that nearly the world will build new coal plants equal
    to nearly five times the current U.S. coal plant capacity between now
    and 2030.\67\ While seemingly a daunting prospect, this projection
    really means that two out of every three coal power plants forecasted
    to be operating in 2030 are not yet designed or built. With U.S.
    leadership, we can design new energy projects to rely on climate-
    friendly technology. Doing so will expand our options to reconcile
    aspirations for improved economic well-being around the world while
    preserving the climate we all depend on to provide us with a hospitable
    place to live.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \67\IEA, World Energy Outlook 2002, October 2002.

                                  figure 9\68\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \68\GW=gigawatt, which is 1000 MW of capacity. Current U.S. coal
    capacity is just over 300 GW.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        In conclusion, let me suggest it is time for all sides to stand
    down from the posturing of past years on this issue and adopt a more
    pragmatic approach. There are many sensible policies that can be
    adopted to start limiting CO2 emissions and there are many
    compelling reasons to do so. Working together, members of both parties
    and the Administration would be able to identify a path forward that
    all could embrace and all could point to as a real accomplishment. NRDC
    will work with you to help make that happen.

                                   __________
           Statement of Eugene Trisko, United Mine Workers of America

        Mr. Chairman and members of the committee: I am Eugene M. Trisko,
    an attorney in the District of Columbia. I am pleased to be here today
    to testify on behalf of the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA), the
    labor union representing the nation's organized coal miners. I have
    worked with the UMWA for some 20 years on issues related to the Clean
    Air Act and global climate change, including the development and
    implementation of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the Byrd-Hagel
    climate resolution, and the proposed Clear Skies Act.
        The UMWA supports additional reductions in sulfur dioxide
    (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and mercury from coal-fired
    power plants, provided that the reductions are achieved in a way that
    preserves coal miners' jobs. UMWA members mine, process and transport
    coal in their daily jobs. Their economic interests are entwined with
    energy and environmental issues in a very direct manner.
        Since 1990, the UMWA has lost thousands of coal mining jobs as a
    consequence of fuel-switching in response to the acid rain provisions
    of Title IV. Coal production in major eastern coal producing States
    declined by more than 113 million annual tons between 1990 and 2000,
    while more than 30,000 coal mining jobs were lost. Most of these
    reductions and job losses were the result of switching from higher-to
    lower-sulfur coals to meet the emission reductions required by Title
    IV. Dozens of mining communities have all but ceased to exist across
    economically depressed Appalachia and the rural Midwest. The union is
    understandably sensitive to the risk of additional job losses through
    new multi-emission legislation.
        For these reasons, the UMWA appreciates the concerns that the
    Administration has expressed toward its members' interests in the
    development of the proposed Clear Skies Act, and is gratified that the
    proposal reflects UMWA's suggestions about the need for incentives to
    encourage the early installation of control technologies. Our statement
    today is intended to point out some remaining concerns about the design
    of multi-emission legislation.

    Background: The Role of Coal in America's Energy Supply
        Coal is an indispensable part of America's energy supply. The U.S.
    has a demonstrated coal reserve base of over 500 billion tons, with an
    estimated 275 billion tons of recoverable reserves. At current
    production rates, this represents about 275 years of recoverable
    reserves.
        Coal represents some 95 percent of all U.S. fossil fuel energy
    reserves. About one-quarter of global known coal reserves are found in
    the United States. U.S. recoverable coal reserves have the energy
    equivalent of about one trillion barrels of oil, an amount comparable
    to the world=s known oil reserves.
        More than one-half of our nation's electricity is generated by
    coal. To back coal out of our energy supply mix means that we would
    have to find another fuel to replace it, most likely natural gas. Such
    a fundamental shift in U.S. energy policy would bring into question not
    only the cost but also the availability of natural gas supplies.
    Substantial increases in demand for natural gas inevitably would lead
    to higher costs and greater dependence on foreign sources for supply.
    At the margin, our gas supplies are imported from Canada and other
    sources in the form of LNG.
        Natural gas futures prices now exceed $4 per million BTU at the
    wellhead, and persist at that level for contract purchases several
    years into the future. Gas prices exceeded $10 per million BTU in many
    markets this winter. Environmental policies that drive electric
    utilities away from coal which costs about $1 per million BTU at the
    mine--and toward natural gas conflict with our energy policy goals of
    maintaining a reliable, low-cost mix of generating sources.
        The UMWA also recognizes that Americans demand a cleaner
    environment at the same time they demand low-cost, reliable and
    available energy. For coal to continue to play the vital role that it
    can and should play in our energy mix, we must ensure that coal is
    consumed with minimum emissions consistent with the use of available
    technologies. The United States must continue to develop highly
    advanced technologies to convert coal to a cleaner and more efficient
    form of energy.

    The UMWA Supports a Three-Pollutant Approach
        The UMWA supports in principle the emission reduction tonnage
    targets contained in the proposed Clear Skies Act. The UMWA has some
    suggested changes intended to improve the environmental effectiveness
    of the proposal, while reducing the risk of large-scale, disruptive
    fuel-switching.
        The union consulted with the Administration during the development
    of the Clear Skies Act. UMWA engaged this issue in August 2001 in
    response to the release of EPA's initial ``strawman'' proposal, calling
    for, inter alia, a 2.0 million ton cap on sulfur dioxide emissions to
    be achieved by 2010. Through a process of inter-agency negotiations,
    that proposal was modified to a two-phase program with a 3.0 million
    ton final cap. The UMWA supported the 3.0 million ton final cap, but
    argued for a single-phase program.
        The positions that UMWA has taken on the Clear Skies Act can be
    summarized as follows:

        1) A single phase approach to reducing SO2 emissions can
    be developed in a manner that reduces the risk of fuel-switching by
    encouraging extensive use of available emission control technologies,
    thereby maximizing the ``co-benefits'' of mercury reductions;
        2) Two-phase proposals for SO2 control may encourage
    fuel-switching and resulting job losses, while reducing the use of
    control technologies that also achieve mercury reductions;
        3) A 2.0 million ton cap on SO2 emissions is excessively
    stringent and could lead to the shut-down of smaller units forced to
    install emission controls;
        4) Differentiating NOx control requirements between eastern and
    western States makes sense in light of OTAG modeling results showing
    the minor contribution of western NOx emissions to ozone affecting
    eastern States; and
        5) An initial target for mercury reductions should be set based on
    expected ``co-benefit'' reductions from a single-phase SO2/
    NOx control program, with a subsequent target based on the results of
    these reductions, and advances in available mercury control
    technologies.

        In November 2001, UMWA President Cecil E. Roberts testified before
    this committee:

        ``An SO2 and NOx control plan along these lines could be
    implemented as a first step in a longer-range plan to reduce mercury
    emissions. The experience in mercury ``co-benefits'' achieved by the
    first phase controls for SO2 and NOx emissions would be
    vital in assessing the feasibility of ultimate mercury reduction
    targets. In light of this, the committee may want to consider early
    reduction allowances for SO2 controls that also reduce
    mercury emissions on the theory that such reductions are more valuable
    than those strategies that only reduce SO2 alone. There is
    precedent for such extra credit in Title IV of the 1990 Amendments,
    which allocated 2:1 bonus allowances to utilities that chose to install
    control technology.''

        With this background, the UMWA respectfully requests the committee
    to consider constraining the eastern SO2 reductions called
    for by the Clear Skies Act to a single phase control program with a
    reasonable final deadline, perhaps similar to the 10-year deadline
    provided by the Title IV SO2 control program.
        A single-phase SO2 program would serve to maximize the
    use of emission control technologies such as flue gas scrubbers that
    also reduce mercury. More important, emission reductions would be
    achieved in time to assist States in attaining the new PM2.5
    standard. A longer-term, two-phase program may not deliver sufficient
    reductions in time for States to demonstrate attainment by the expected
    2015 attainment deadline.
        Because NOx controls tend to be added incrementally, from low-NOx
    burners to selective catalytic reduction, there is less need for a
    single-phase NOx control program. The targets and timetables for NOx
    reductions also may take into account the longer-term attainment
    schedule for the 8-hour ozone standard that EPA is developing, modeled
    on the 17-year schedule that Congress approved for the 1-hour ozone
    standard.

    Eliminate Allowance Auctions
        The UMWA urges elimination of the emission auction provisions of
    the Clear Skies Act. Requiring sources both to reduce emissions and to
    pay for auctioned allowances is a form of double taxation whose rates
    rise in relation to the sulfur content of coal. Auction ``tax rates''
    would be highest in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky,
    Indiana, Illinois and other States producing higher-sulfur coals. Over
    time, this new energy tax would create a major disincentive to the use
    of coal reserves in these States.

    Avoid Entanglement with Climate Issues!
        The UMWA does not support reduction schemes that force or encourage
    electric utilities to switch away from coal, thereby causing economic
    harm to coal miners and their communities. UMWA is particularly
    concerned that efforts to craft new multi-emission control legislation
    should remain focused as the Clear Skies Act is--on reducing the air
    pollutants contributing to air quality problems such as nonattainment
    with EPA's new 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 standards.
        The union is strongly opposed to efforts to use the Clean Air Act
    as a vehicle for regulating greenhouse gas emissions.
        Regulating greenhouse gases under the air quality framework of the
    Clean Air Act is not feasible. It is not possible to set enforceable
    limits on domestic atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
    generated and transported globally. Carbon dioxide, the principal
    greenhouse gas, is not harmful to human health and could not properly
    be classified as a ``criteria'' air pollutant.
        There are no commercially available means to reduce carbon
    emissions from the electric generation sector. Limits on carbon
    emissions would require switching from coal to natural gas or other
    higher-cost energy sources, with potentially devastating impacts on the
    economies of coal-producing States.
        The Kyoto Protocol exempts rapidly growing developing nations from
    limits on greenhouse gas emissions, and unilateral actions by the
    United States to reduce carbon emissions would have no measurable
    impact on future concentrations of greenhouse gases. Global greenhouse
    gas concentrations are projected to increase into the foreseeable
    future, irrespective of ratification and implementation of the Kyoto
    Protocol. These increases will be driven predominately by the economic
    growth of developing nations.
        The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the
    United States and other parties to establish global atmospheric
    greenhouse concentration targets to prevent ``dangerous'' anthropogenic
    interference with climate. To date, the U.N. FCCC process has failed to
    engage this debate. Indeed, the FCCC's ``second review of adequacy of
    commitments'' has been stalled since November 1998 when China and other
    developing nations refused to discuss the adequacy of developing
    country commitments. In Kyoto, developing countries staged a 6-hour
    filibuster against the U.S. ``evolution'' proposal, calling for
    subsequent negotiation of developing country commitments. These
    subsequent negotiations were contingent upon full and complete
    performance of all Annex I country obligations under the Kyoto
    Protocol.
        The deficiencies of the Kyoto Protocol and the U.N. FCCC process
    should be resolved through multilateral negotiations involving
    developed and developing countries, potentially leading to a new global
    agreement on greenhouse gases that recognizes the ``common but
    differentiated'' responsibilities of parties to the FCCC, with an
    equitable apportionment of emission limitation targets among all
    parties.
        The UMWA's concerns about including greenhouse gas emission
    restrictions within domestic Clean Air legislation are shared by other
    labor unions. On October 24, 2001, the presidents of seven labor unions
    conveyed their views on this issue to this committee. A copy of their
    letter is attached to this statement.

    Need to Consider Financial Impacts
        The failure of many State utility restructuring efforts and other
    economic forces have degraded the financial health of the electric
    utility industry. The industry is littered with companies in or
    teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. Credit downgrades are daily news.
        The multi-billion dollar annual cost associated with new emission
    control legislation raises questions about the ability of the utility
    industry to raise needed debt and equity capital. In many States, it is
    no longer possible to simply pass through the costs of new emission
    controls to utility ratepayers.
        Under these circumstances, UMWA recommends that the committee
    consult with the congressional Research Service or the General
    Accounting Office on the financial implications of proposed emission
    control legislation. Both the tonnage reductions and the timetables for
    compliance should reflect sound financial and economic assumptions
    about the ability of the industry to comply.
        UMWA appreciates the opportunity to share its views on the proposed
    Clear Skies Act with the committee, and looks forward to the
    opportunity for further input to the development of multi-emission
    legislation as your deliberations proceed.
        Thank you.

                                     ______

        Responses of Eugene Trisko to Additional Questions from Senator
                                   Voinovich

        Question 1. Obviously, fuel switching is an issue that is important
    to you--as your members will be forced out of their jobs if utilities
    switch to natural gas as their primary fuel for electricity generation.
        How does Clear Skies affect your industry?
        Response. EPA's current analyses of Clear Skies show relatively
    little overall impact on domestic coal production compared to EPA's
    base case business-as-usual scenario, with a slight shift from western
    to eastern bituminous coals by 2020. For reference, see Jeff
    Holmstead's recent article in Electric Perspectives at: http://
    www.eei.org/ep/editorial/May--03/0503ClearSkies.htm
        This shift reflects the increased use of control technologies
    needed to meet CSA emission targets, and the relative ease of removing
    mercury from high-chlorine content eastern coals.
        UMWA has been advised by EPA staff that the main risks of fuel
    switching under Clear Skies would exist in the early years of the
    program, following enactment. Utilities would be able to bank
    SO2 allowances against future reduction requirements, and
    would have a strong incentive to switch to lower-sulfur western coals
    in order to reduce their current emissions.
        Many subbituminous western coals have emission rates of 0.6-1.0 lb
    SO2/MMBTU, while there are virtually no eastern coals with a
    sulfur content less than 1.0 lb. SO2. The lower the sulfur
    content of the coal feed, the larger the number of allowances that can
    be banked relative to the nominal 1.2 lb. allocation formula employed
    in Title IV, Phase II.
        These considerations led UMWA to propose a system of early
    reduction bonus allowances in Clear Skies, similar to the ``Byrd-Bond''
    amendment to Title IV, which the bill now incorporates. CSA provides
    250,000 tons of SO2 allowances as a set aside for plants
    that install scrubbers prior to the initial 2010 Phase I cap.
        UMWA's initial proposal for this early action program was 500,000
    tons of allowances in each of the years 2007, 2008 and 2009. Any
    increase in the 250,000 ton early action reserve would be helpful in
    encouraging the early use of control technologies that reduce
    SO2 as well as mercury as a cobenefit.
        The risk of early fuel switching also underlies UMWA's proposal for
    a single phase SO2 control program, as explained in my
    direct testimony. Such a program would create incentives for early
    scrubbing to reduce both SO2 and mercury, and minimize the
    risks of short-term fuel switching that would not be consistent with
    preservation of eastern coal mining production capacity.

        Question 2. Is Clear Skies better for your industry in the long run
    than other alternatives--including business as usual, the Clean Power
    Act (S. 366) and the Clean Air Planning Act (S. 3135)?
        Response. Clear Skies is significantly more favorable to coal
    production and consumption in the long-run than either S. 366 or S.
    3135. The principal reason for this is that these alternatives include
    requirements for carbon emission reductions, which would serve as an
    impediment to coal use.
        For the reasons set forth in my direct testimony, UMWA would not
    support an amendment to the Clean Air Act including carbon dioxide
    limits on coal power plants. The international climate change process
    must first be redirected to embrace all major greenhouse gas emitting
    nations. Unilateral actions by the U.S. would have no meaningful impact
    on global concentrations of greenhouse gases, and could impose
    unacceptable economic hardships on coal producing and consuming States.
        Further, as stated in response to the Committee's hearing
    questions, UMWA welcomes analyses by EPA, EIA or other agencies of the
    potential fuel market impacts of alternative bills before the
    Committee.

                                     ______

        Responses of Eugene Trisko to Additional Questions from Senator
                                    Jeffords

        Question 1. As it has been explained to me, the future for new coal
    generation and consumption in the next 20 years or so is pretty dim.
    According to EIA, most new capacity is going to be natural gas, unless
    we quickly bring in coal gasification technology. What are the
    projections for employment in the coal mining field over the next 10
    years or so, if cleaner, more efficient coal fired generation is not
    installed within that period?
        Response. EPA and DOE projections for coal mining employment show a
    general downward trend, reflecting increased productivity. This is a
    continuation of an historic trend based on increased mechanization at
    mines. EPA's projections of mining employment for Clear Skies may be
    referenced at: http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/tech--sectiond.pdf
        EPA's analysis suggests a small positive increase in coal jobs
    (900-1,400) due to Clear Skies relative to the reference case in 2005
    and 2020. This is mainly due to increased production in the Midwest.
        EIA's projections of future natural gas capacity additions may not
    be realistic in view of recent increases in the wellhead price of gas,
    and poor experience in finding rates for new gas. A business as usual
    scenario for coal over the next 10 years reflecting realistic gas price
    assumptions likely would indicate substantial increases in generation
    from existing plants, especially those with relatively low capacity
    factors, in order to supply increased electric demand. This would imply
    a beneficial impact on coal mining jobs.

        Question 2. Do you believe that the current statutory language or
    the consent decree regarding the MACT requirements for hazardous air
    pollutants could result in a rule that controls mercury only at the co-
    benefit level--in the 40-50 percent range per unit?
        Response. The statutory language of section 112 will control EPA's
    determination of an appropriate MACT for coal-fired units. The consent
    decree impacts only the timing of the proposal and its promulgation as
    a final rule. The MACT may subcategorize by coal type, and under
    applicable precedent should reflect consideration of worst case
    operating conditions.
        It is UMWA's understanding that the ICR data collected by EPA can
    be interpreted to support a MACT that is consistent with a cobenefit
    level of reduction. The MACT determination under section 112 looks at
    the performance of the top 12 percent of units, based on controls
    actually in use. It is unlike a section 111 NSPS determination, which
    considers what may reasonably be anticipated as state-of-the-art
    control technology.
        Thus, in determining MACT, EPA may not consider the effectiveness
    of activated carbon injection and other emerging mercury control
    technologies that are not in actual commercial use. Instead, the agency
    must focus on the effectiveness of controls in place among its ICR
    sample of 80 plants.
        Because these controls remove mercury as a co-benefit of other
    emission control technologies for SO2, NOx and particulates,
    it is reasonable to expect that EPA's MACT proposal(s) should be
    consistent with a cobenefit level of mercury reduction.

                                   __________
               Statement of Bernard Melewski, Adirondack Council

        Good Morning. My name is Bernard Melewski. I am the Deputy Director
    and Counsel of the Adirondack Council. I would like to thank the
    chairman, and the Members of the committee for the opportunity to be
    here with you this morning and to provide testimony regarding Senate
    Bill 485-the Clear Skies Act.
        The Adirondack Park is the largest park of any kind in the
    contiguous United States. It is nearly three times the size of
    Yellowstone National Park and covers one fifth of the State of New
    York, making it equal in size to the State of Vermont. The Adirondack
    Park is roughly six-million acres of public and private land containing
    the largest assemblage of old growth forest east of the Mississippi
    River. The Adirondacks include the headwaters of five major drainage
    basins. Lake Champlain and the Hudson, St. Lawrence, Mohawk and Black
    rivers all draw water from the Adirondack Park. Within the Park are
    more than 2,800 lakes and ponds, and more than 1,500 miles of rivers
    fed by an estimated 30,000 miles of brooks and streams. The Park
    contains 46 mountain peaks more than 4,000 feet in elevation. Forty-
    five percent of the Park is publicly owned Forest Preserve protected as
    ``Forever Wild'' by the New York State Constitution since 1895. One
    million acres of these public lands are further protected as
    Wilderness.
        The Adirondack Council was founded in 1975. It is a private, not-
    for-profit organization dedicated to enhancing the natural and human
    communities of the Adirondack Park through research, education,
    advocacy and legal action. We receive no Federal or State funding.
        Our interest in The Clean Air Act and the problem of acid rain is
    long held. We helped craft the first acid rain law in the country which
    was adopted in 1984. The New York law identified both sulfur dioxide
    and nitrogen oxide as precursors to acid rain, sought limits on total
    emissions from power plants within the State and even proposed an
    innovative trading mechanism that Congress adopted nationwide in the
    Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.
        The Adirondack Council was also an active participant in the
    national debate that led to the adoption of the acid rain program in
    Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Our publication,
    ``Beside the Stilled Waters,'' which was produced and distributed in
    cooperation with our member organizations, brought the problem of acid
    rain to the attention of the Nation and to Congress. (See Also ``Acid
    Rain and the Adirondacks: A Legislative History.'' Albany Law Review.
    Vol 66 Number 1 2002)
        The acid rain program, as adopted, was not without controversy.
    Congress adopted an innovative ``cap and trade'' program, modeled after
    the New York legislation, which would abandon the so-called ``command
    and control'' approach to regulation, in favor of a free wheeling
    pollution allowance trading program that would provide utilities with
    the flexibility to make compliance strategies part of their long-term
    business planning. The Adirondack Council, among others raised concern
    that the cap on total emissions might not be low enough to protect
    sensitive areas. Others debated both the need for and the cost of the
    program
        The Adirondack Council was also one of the most severe critics of
    the program EPA designed to implement Title IV. We had concerns about
    the initial allocation of credits, the adequacy of the continuous
    monitoring systems, and, together with the Natural Resources Defense
    Council sought changes in Federal court. (Cases consolidated under EPA
    v. Browner) We are pleased to say that years of good-faith negotiation
    between the USEPA, the affected industry and the conservation community
    resulted in very positive changes. Unfortunately, EPA now administers
    an efficient mechanism that will accomplish a goal that, in hindsight,
    was too modest.
        In 1992, a deputy administrator for the EPA grandly pronounced in a
    press release that the regulations implementing the new Clean Air Act
    Amendments would mean ``the end to acid rain in the Adirondacks.''
    Certainly that was the intention of the Senate and the House. But
    wisely, Congress had ordered a series of reports that would advise the
    members of the success or failure of the goals of the acid rain
    program.
        Sadly the news has nearly all been bad.
        Due to its location and its thin soils, the Adirondack Park has
    suffered the worst environmental damage from acid rain in America. It
    is the region where the problem was first documented in the United
    States. Prevailing winds carry power plant emissions from the Ohio
    Valley into the Adirondack Mountains, where they fall as acid rain,
    acid snow, acid fog and dry acidic particles. The acidity alters soil
    chemistry, inhibits plant growth and releases heavy metals that are
    toxic to plants, animals and fish.
        Reports conducted by a host of Federal agencies have shown that
    more than 500 of the Park's 2800 lakes and ponds have become too acidic
    to support their native life over the past 40 years. The same is true
    for 28 percent of the Park's 2,000 miles of navigable rivers. Each
    spring the percentage of acidic rivers explodes to almost 60 percent
    over the course of several weeks as the winter's acidic snowpack melts.
    The Park's high elevation spruce and fir and its spectacular maples,
    are disappearing at an alarming rate. Similar damage to forests is
    worsening across the East Coast, as well as the Colorado Rockies and
    the coastal mountains of California.
        Every report issued by the Federal Government in the past 10 years
    reflects these observations, and worse, predicts continuing damage if
    more is not done to control power plant emissions. The dire predictions
    are also reflected in a host of other reports from scientists in the
    field which we discuss later in this testimony.
        In 1998, the Adirondack Council was invited by this committee to
    testify about Senate 172, the Acid Rain Control Act, proposed
    legislation then sponsored by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan. We
    said at that time that any legislation that seeks to address the acid
    rain problem should, at a minimum contain two provisions. The same
    holds true today:
          Build on the successful sulfur dioxide cap-and-trade
    program by creating a third phase of reductions further along the
    current time line. All of the advantages of the current program can be
    preserved in a predictable, flexible, and cost-effective manner while
    reducing sulfur-dioxide emissions by an additional 50 percent or more.
          Create a new year-round cap-and-trade program for
    nitrogen-oxide emissions from utility smokestacks that mirrors the
    successful program already in place for sulfur. The role of nitrogen
    deposition both in high elevation waters and forests and in our coastal
    estuaries is now much better understood and accepted by the scientific
    community. This cap and trade program should reduce nitrogen emissions
    from utilities nationwide by approximately 70 percent or more of 1990
    levels, resulting in a substantial and beneficial cut that is also
    reasonably achievable.
        It is our conclusion that the bill before you now, Senate 485, the
    Clear Skies Act, meets and exceeds those two minimum provisions. The
    bill embraces the cuts envisioned in the Moynihan-D'Amato-Schumer-
    Clinton proposals over the past several sessions of Congress and then
    goes beyond those levels in an additional phase of reductions We
    believe that adoption of the caps proposed for sulfur dioxide and
    nitrogen oxide in the Clear Skies Act will set the course for recovery
    of the Adirondacks, and the many other acid rain ravaged sections of
    the country.
        Just last week, final approval was granted for the State of New
    York to adopt the toughest acid rain regulations in the country. The
    New York initiative was announced by Governor Pataki 3 years ago, when
    I last testified before this subcommittee. Senator Voinovich was
    presiding that day. The Senator, upon hearing the news of the
    announcement, said, as I recall, that it was an important step. That
    New York had to show that it was willing to do what we were asking of
    the rest of the country. Well Senator, it is done, and we are back. The
    adoption of the regulations reaffirms once again New York's commitment
    to this issue, despite the fact that more than 80 percent of our acid
    deposition problem originates outside our borders. We are doing what we
    can, but we need your help.
        The Pataki rules are modeled to implement the provisions of the
    Acid Deposition Control Act authored by the late Senator Moynihan in
    1997, which was reintroduced in the last session of Congress by
    Senators Schumer and Clinton. New York will require over the next
    several years a 50 percent reduction from its power plants of sulfur
    dioxide emissions and a 70 percent cut in emissions of nitrogen oxides
    from current levels.
        The new rules in New York raise an important issue that should be
    considered as an amendment to the Clear Skies Act. New York is part of
    the EPA brokered 22 State SIP Call compact that will reduce nitrogen
    emissions significantly during the summer ozone season by 2004. Under
    the new rules, however, New York power plants will be required to
    implement year-round controls in 2004.
        USEPA has established a 22-State utility cap-and-trade program for
    nitrogen emissions as the preferred response for State compliance with
    its new ozone program. The EPA SIP call, which is only summer seasonal,
    will not address in a significant way, the acid rain problem. The acid
    rain dilemma is the total loading of nitrogen to sensitive areas. For
    high elevation areas the main concern stems from the buildup of
    nitrogen in the snow pack and the subsequent ``acidic shock'' to
    aquatic systems in the spring of the year. Year-round controls will be
    necessary to address the nitrogen problem. Furthermore, only nationwide
    reductions will address the problems outside of the 22-State region
    covered by EPA's plan.
        Congress can level the competitive playing field for the utility
    industry by enacting national controls which will permit an expanded
    allowance trading market that will be more efficient and cost
    effective. The Congressional Budget Office, in its report, Factors
    Affecting the Relative Success of EPA's Nox Cap-and-trade Program (June
    1998), identified similar benefits to providing additional statutory
    authority in a report on the proposed rules this summer.
        The Clear Skies Act as currently drafted does not impose those
    year-round controls until 2008 for the SIP Call States. The Adirondack
    Council requests that the committee to take a look at whether the
    imposition of year-round controls could be advanced for the States in
    that eastern trading region.
        The Adirondack Council would appreciate consideration of two other
    amendments to the Clear Skies Act today as well. The second amendment
    has already been considered once by this committee. In a mark-up of
    then Chairman Jefford's bill last session, Senator Clinton offered up
    an amendment which was adopted by the committee. The amendment was
    similar to a provision of Senate 588 of last year, which would ensure
    that measurements of water chemistry were conducted in acid sensitive
    areas of the country. If by a date certain the benefits anticipated by
    the legislation were not occurring in sensitive areas, the
    Administrator would have the authority to reduce emissions from
    contributing sources to reduce acid deposition in the affected area to
    levels where the affected water bodies have the capacity to neutralize
    acids sufficiently to avoid additional damage.
        We have every reason to expect that, with the level of reductions
    proposed in the Clear Skies Act, that such a provision might never need
    be invoked. But we prefer a belt and suspenders in this case. Neither
    our region of the country, nor any other that suffers from acid rain,
    should need to wait another 12 years to solve this problem. We urge you
    to consider adding language that allows a limited reopener by the
    Administrator to protect sensitive resource areas. We appreciate that
    Senator Jeffords has retained the provision in the reintroduction of
    his bill this session.
        Our third request is that the committee examine whether there can
    be faster timetables, especially in the out years for the second phases
    of SOx and NOx reductions. One of the remarkable aspects of the 1990
    Amendments was that the industry was able to fully comply with two
    phases of sulfur dioxide reductions only 5 years apart. New York is
    requiring our power plants to implement year-round reductions of
    nitrogen oxides very rapidly. While we concede that our generators had
    a very public ``notice'' 3 years prior, the committee should examine
    whether a more ambitious timetable can be accomplished in the out
    years. The faster we lower emissions, the quicker we will see recovery.
        There are many issues ahead to resolve, including the timing and
    depth of the reductions in emissions of the target pollutants. We
    encourage you to adopt the deepest cuts in the faster manner that can
    be accomplished in negotiations with your colleagues. We are excited by
    the fact that this bill which you sponsor, Mr. Chairman, and that of
    Senator Jeffords and the bill anticipated from Senators Carper and
    Chafee all will solve the acid rain problem. Every year that can be
    gained and every ton that can be saved will hasten the biological
    recovery of our parks, our rivers and our coastal estuaries, and will
    save thousands of lives.
        Last spring, President George W. Bush visited the Adirondack Park
    on Earth Day. He said he was committed to solving our acid rain problem
    and we believe him. We were pleased to see the President chose the
    solemn occasion of the State of the Union message to renew that
    commitment. The introduction by the leadership of this committee of the
    Administration's proposal is an important step forward. The Clear Skies
    Act is a good point at which to begin your deliberations Congress now
    has the historic opportunity to stop acid rain, smog and haze from
    harming our environment and our health.
        I want to extend at this time, on behalf of the Board of Directors
    of the Adirondack Council, an invitation to all the members of this
    committee to visit the Adirondack Park and see what a wonderful
    resource you will have saved. Perhaps, you will hear the haunting call
    of the loon in the wilderness and know that you have acted to ensure
    that future generations will share the experience.
        This nation committed itself to the task of ending the destruction
    of acid rain over a decade ago. We think it is time to finish the job.
    We urge the earliest consideration of measures to improve Title IV of
    the Clean Air Act and bring an end to acid rain this year.. Thank you
    again.

    Reports to Congress have shown the need for more cuts in emissions
        The first report was due in 1993, from the USEPA (ordered under
    sec. 404, Title IV appendix B of the 1990 CAAA). Entitled the Acid
    Deposition Standard Feasibility Study Report to Congress, the report
    (dated October 1995) was finally released in 1996 under the threat of
    litigation from the Adirondack Council and the State of New York.
        The report concluded that the pollution reductions accompanying the
    1990 Clean Air Act Amendments would not be sufficient to allow recovery
    of certain sensitive ecosystems and that some would continue to get
    worse. The report was particularly compelling for New Yorkers because
    it revealed that, despite the reductions expected from the 1990 CAA
    Amendments, the loss of nearly fifty percent of its lakes and
    acidification of most streams in the Adirondack Park could be expected.
        The second of two reports to Congress, the Report of the National
    Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, NAPAP Biennial Report to
    Congress: An Integrated Assessment, was submitted to Congress during
    the August recess in 1998 (ordered under Sec. 901J of the 1990 CAAA).
    It was due in 1996 and it too was released under pressure from then
    Senators Moynihan and D'Amato and the threat of litigation from the
    State of New York. The NAPAP report confirmed and substantially
    elaborated upon the findings of the earlier report to Congress
    submitted in 1996 from the EPA.
        We believe that a fair reading of both reports to Congress lead to
    the same two findings:

        First, the mechanism of a national cap in emissions coupled with
    the pollution allowance trading program has been an outstanding
    success. Facilities are in compliance with Title IV and on schedule.
    The administrative and implementation costs of the program are less
    than projected at the time of adoption. The simple, efficient design of
    the program, coupled with large automatic penalties for exceedences,
    and the diligence of EPA Administrators and the regulated community are
    all factors in this success.
        The administrative and implementation costs are far below those
    associated with traditional regulatory approaches because in many ways
    the program is self-implementing. Devices known as Continuous Emissions
    Monitors (CEMS) count each ton of pollution as it is emitted from the
    smokestack. At the end of each year a utility must have enough credits
    (either initially allocated or purchased) to cover those emissions. The
    accounting of allowance holdings and trading is in a data base
    maintained by EPA. Each pollution credit is tracked with its own serial
    number.
        The compliance costs of the program are proving to be far below
    those estimated when Title IV was adopted. EPA estimated that the fully
    implemented program would cost four billion dollars a year, and
    industry estimates were much higher. A report by the the Massachusetts
    Institute of Technology found compliance costs of less than one billion
    dollars per year. Again, the design of the program helped achieve these
    relatively low compliance costs. Other factors, such as rail
    transportation improvements that reduced the cost of transporting low-
    sulfur coal were crucial here as well.
        The market for trading allowances is improving as well. Each year
    there are more ``economically significant'' trades occurring and the
    value of each allowance is rising steadily. In fact, the Adirondack
    Council is a market participant. We have acquired thousands of
    pollution allowance credits, most of them donated as a community good-
    will gesture by utilities in New York. Unlike most other holders of
    allowances, it is our intention to retire all credits we may obtain by
    transferring them to a retirement account we maintain with USEPA.
    Thousands of individuals around the Nation, have ``Clean Air
    Certificates'' on their home or office walls, assuring them that the
    Adirondack Council has permanently retired, in their name, one-ton of
    sulfur dioxide emissions.
        There is a real need for emission reductions beyond those called
    for in the 1990 Amendments. Projections (by EPA and ICF Resources) of
    what new SO2 and Nox reductions would cost indicate that
    deep new reductions could be achieved at or near the initial four
    billion dollar estimate made by the House and Senate in 1990.
        The second major finding of both reports to Congress was that
    despite the success of the regulatory scheme, the overall cap in
    emissions is too high to accomplish one of the primary goals of
    Congress, which was to protect sensitive resource areas from the
    harmful effects of acid rain.
        The NAPAP report also confirmed that acid rain is not just an
    Adirondack problem.

    Ecological damage is significant and widespread
        The damage that sulfur and nitrogen pollution causes is far from a
    regional issue. It is an issue of national importance. Excess nitrogen
    in waters and in soils--``nitrogen saturation``--can be found in the
    North East and in West Virginia's Allegheny Mountains, Tennessee's
    Great Smoky Mountains, Colorado's Front Range of the Rockies and even
    as far west as the San Bernardino and San Gabriel Mountains. High
    levels of nitrogen deposition are causing nitrate to leach in stream
    water from these watersheds. This nitrate leaching acidifies streams
    and strips base cations from soils. In snow covered areas, the flush of
    nitric acid stored in the snowpack is the leading cause of ``acid
    pulses'' or ``spring shock'', which is responsible for fish kills
    during spring thaws.
        NAPAP found that high elevation areas in the Northeast and the
    Appalachians are bathed in acidic cloud water for extended periods of
    time. Sulfuric acid from sulfur dioxide emissions is the significant
    cause of the widespread loss of red spruce trees in these areas. The
    reason for the die back is the leaching of calcium from the spruce
    needles and aluminum from the soils by the acidic fog which makes the
    trees susceptible to frost and winter injury.
        The coastal estuaries of the entire east coast suffer from airborne
    inputs of nitrogen that can make up nearly 40 percent of the total
    nitrogen loaded into their systems. In estuary systems such as the Long
    Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and Tampa Bay in
    Florida, nitrogen-based pollution is overloading the water with
    nutrients. This causes ``eutrophication,'' an overabundance of algae.
    When algae dies and decays, it depletes the water of precious oxygen
    needed by all aquatic animals. This condition is known as hypoxia.
    Algae blooms are also associated with fin fish kills, shellfish kills
    and human illness.
        NAPAP also concluded that areas of the United States that are not
    seeing damage now are likely to in the future, due to an effect known
    as soil acidification. Over the long term, acidic deposition is slowly
    leaching away key soil nutrients, like calcium and magnesium (known as
    base cations) that are essential for plant growth. This nutrient
    depletion is occurring in high-and mid-elevation forests in New
    England, New York and the Southern Appalachians. NAPAP cited studies
    which concluded that fifty-nine percent of the commercial pine forest
    soil in all of the South East has low enough reserves of these
    chemicals to warrant concern.
        Acid deposition, whether from sulfur-or from nitrogen-based
    pollution, not only leads to base depletion, but also results in the
    release of toxic compounds from soils to living things. For example,
    the release of aluminum from soils rapidly accelerates when pH drops
    below 5. The release of aluminum interferes with plant biochemistry. It
    is also the leading cause of fish mortality in affected lakes. In other
    words, it is not only the acidity directly, but also the aluminum
    toxicity that is responsible for the damage. This effect is very
    widespread. NAPAP cited studies, conducted in the Shenandoah National
    Park, show that fish species richness, population density, condition,
    age distribution, size and survival rate were all reduced in streams no
    longer able to neutralize acidity. Another NAPAP study of streams in
    the Adirondacks, Catskills and Northern Appalachians in Pennsylvania
    showed that episodic acidification ``acid pulses'' had long term
    adverse effects on fish populations including significant fish
    mortality.
        Lake acidification, whether from sulfur or nitrogen is also clearly
    implicated in the increase in mercury concentrations found in fish.
    Acidity leads to greater conversion of mercury from its less toxic
    elemental form to methyl mercury, which is much more toxic. Fish
    consumption warnings due to mercury contamination are common in many
    states and are on the rise. The bio-accumulation of mercury in some
    species of fish in New York has reached levels that threaten our loon
    population, which are dependent on the fish as a primary food source.
    In dozens of lakes in the western mountains of the Adirondack Park and
    in the Catskill Mountain reservoirs of New York City's water supply,
    the levels of mercury in some fish species exceed that which is safe
    for human consumption, and children and women of child-bearing age are
    urged to avoid perch and bass altogether. The acid rain problem is now
    a public health problem.
        The cost to Americans from acid rain is not just the loss of
    pristine lakes in one of its greatest parks, or the almost
    imperceptible die out of sensitive species of trees, or even the haze
    obscures the views of four national parks, it is also in the loss of
    our great monuments, our collective tribute to our ideals and to those
    who have come before us.
        The Capitol building is crumbling. The corrosive effects of acid
    rain are eating away at its marble and that of many of the great
    monuments on the mall. The Lincoln memorial corrodes more every year.
    So it is with buildings and monuments throughout the Capitol, so
    numerous and so obvious that until recently you could purchase an
    illustrated guide to the acid rain damage to our nations capitol,
    thoughtfully provided free of charge to the public by the U.S. Park
    Service. (Acid Rain and our Nation's Capital, U.S. Dept. of the
    Interior/U.S. Geological Survey, 1997)
        The monuments to the fallen on the great battle sites of the Civil
    War, Gettysburg and Vicksburg, are dissolving from the acid bath they
    endure each rainy day. The Statute of Liberty stands melting on its
    solitary island.
        This is why the fight to stop acid rain has been joined by many of
    the nation's prestigious organizations dedicated to historic
    preservation, such as the National Trust For Historic Preservation and
    the ``Save Our Sculpture'' Project of the Smithsonian.
        All of this disturbing information was been exhaustively peer
    reviewed and verified by the May 1998 National Acid Precipitation
    Assessment Program Biennial Report to Congress.
        Other studies have found similar results.
        Environment Canada, in its 1997 report ``Toward a National Acid
    Rain Strategy'', said that reducing sulfur emissions significantly
    beyond the current Clean Air Act requirements in both countries would
    be needed for all of eastern Canada to be protected from acid rain. In
    southern Canada, an area the size of France and Britain combined
    continues to receive harmful levels of acid deposition. As many as
    95,000 lakes in the region will remain damaged.
        A study released by Trout Unlimited in 1998, that was conducted by
    the University of Virginia found that without deep additional
    deposition reductions up to 35 percent of Virginia trout streams would
    become ``chronically acidic'' and would no longer support trout
    populations. The study further estimated that thousands of trout stream
    miles in the Southern Appalachians may be lost to acidification.
        While we hold no special expertise in the field of the health
    effects of air pollution, a brief review of the literature reveals some
    interesting facts. EPA's 1995 study, Human Health Benefits from Sulfate
    Reductions Under Title IV, estimates that every dollar spent reducing
    SO2 emissions could generate ten dollars in savings from
    reduced health care costs. Considering the steep rise in asthma cases,
    acting to reduce air pollutants now is an important health initiative.
        In 1999, Nature, perhaps the most respected journal of its kind,
    published the broadest geographical study of acid rain to date. Written
    by 23 scientists, all of them top acid rain researchers, and taking
    samples from roughly 200 sites, the study again confirmed and
    elaborated on the disturbing findings of earlier works.
        Unfortunately, the next scheduled report by NAPAP to Congress is
    again 2 years overdue. It is easy to predict that its findings will
    only stimulate more demand for action by Congress on acid rain. Several
    studies released since that time only reinforce the desirability of
    moving ahead.
        In May of 2000, the Ecological Society of America released it
    workshop report from its 1999 conference of 50 of North America's top
    research scientists. The report States that parts of New Hampshire,
    Maine and California were suffering lake acidification and forest death
    as severe as those observed in New York's most sensitive areas. Major
    findings of the report included:

          More cuts are needed in sulfur dioxide and nitrogen
    oxides to protect sensitive areas of the country from environmental
    damage;
          The White Mountains of New Hampshire and the lake country
    of Maine were showing little or no recovery;
          Nitrogen oxides can be equal in destructive power to
    sulfur dioxides;
          Nitrogen saturation, already begun in the Adirondacks, is
    actually worse in the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains of
    southern California, which had the highest concentrations of nitrogen
    in North America;
          Acid shock is more widespread than previously believed;
    and
          It is very important to continue the long-term research
    into the effects of acid rain, including studies of cloud water, dust
    particles, rain, sleet and snow.

        At the beginning of the last session of Congress, the Hubbard Brook
    Research Foundation released a new summary report, Acid Rain Revisited
    of its findings of the scientific advances since the 1990 Clean Air Act
    Amendments. The report's main conclusions are that our soil problems
    are getting worse and the forests are dying faster than we thought. The
    Hubbard Brook study is one more brick in a huge wall of evidence that
    acid rain must be stopped as soon as possible.
        Briefly stated, the findings include:

          Acid rain is still a problem and has a greater
    environmental impact that previously projected;
          Acid deposition has altered soils and stressed trees in
    areas of the Northeast and has impaired lakes and streams;
          The Clean Air Act has had positive effects, but emissions
    and deposition remain high compared to background conditions; and
          The rate and extent of ecosystem recovery from acid
    deposition are directly related to the timing and degree of emission
    reductions.

        And in January of 2003, the US Environmental Protection Agency's
    Office of Research Development issued a report showing that the cuts in
    air pollution since 1990 have produced corresponding modest-but--
    encouraging improvements in concentrations in lake water across the
    Northeast, including the regions's hardest-hit area, the Adirondack
    Park. The good news from that report is that we have been taking the
    right approach by reducing sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions
    from power plants. We are targeting the right sources and the right
    pollutants. Our natural ecosystems are beginning to show signs of
    chemical recovery, but is a long road from the start of chemical
    recovery to full biological recovery-the point where you see the fish,
    trees, and other native species coming back in healthy numbers. We need
    to continue down this road and act this year to make significant new
    cuts that will not only turn the corner but also accelerate the natural
    healing process.
        The call for additional action on acid rain is not just a New York
    plea.
        The problems these pollutants bring are felt from Maine to Florida
    and beyond. The actions we call for will improve the environment and
    public health to the benefit of virtually every American.
        In May 1998, the Conference of New England Governors and Eastern
    Canadian Premiers recommended additional reductions in utility
    emissions of SO2 and NOx, similar to the provisions of the
    Moynihan legislation.
        In August of 2002, the unanimous report of the Southern Appalachian
    Mountains Initiative, released by representatives of eight southern
    States (North Carolina, South Carolina, Kentucky, Virginia, West
    Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama), concluded that its mission
    cannot be accomplished without emissions reductions in States outside
    the region. The final report also States that ``The SAMI States support
    and will promote national multi-pollutant legislation for electric
    utility plants to assure significant sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide
    reductions, both inside and outside the SAMI region. This national
    multi-pollutant legislation should result in no less than the
    reductions for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides represented by the
    Administration's Clear Skies Initiative''. We concur. congressional
    action is the best solution
        The sad alternative of more delay is continued destruction of the
    nations most pristine resources and treasured monuments. The failure to
    act now will also heighten the desire to find alternative, and more
    confrontational, routes to stop acid rain.
        The disturbing and overwhelming evidence of the destruction of the
    streams, lakes and forests on public lands, protected by New York's
    State Constitution as ``Forever Wild'' and the pollution of our coastal
    estuaries has raised grave concern in New York. Absent clear movement
    by Congress to adjust the sulfur program and deal with the companion
    problem of nitrogen as long-range transport of pollutants, there have
    already been numerous efforts in New York to mitigate the problem
    through any other avenue available. In the past several years, the
    Office of the Attorney General of the State of New York has sought
    legal redress via other provisions of the Clean Air Act. Most recently,
    Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has brought suit against 17 utilities in
    five States, using the long arm of the Clean Air Act to force change.
        In 2000, New York's State Senate passed unanimously a bill that is
    intended to discourage the trade or sale of excess pollution allowances
    that our own utilities may own for the eventual use in 12 upwind
    States. I assure you, the New York State Senate is not known for its
    hostility to business or to the free market. The State Senate action,
    we believe, reflects a consensus that something must be done. The State
    Assembly did adopt the same measure, which was signed into law that
    year. Not surprisingly, a coalition of utilities challenged the measure
    on constitutional grounds, winning at the Federal district court level.
    The lower court decision is currently under appeal by the State, where
    an opinion is pending. (See Clean Air Markets Group, 194 F.Supp. 2d.147
    NDNY 2002)
        We believe that the greater the delay in action by Congress to
    repair the flaw in the acid rain program, the more likely that you will
    see actions like those just mentioned in New York taken in other
    affected States. The better alternative is to fulfill the original
    intent of Congress to solve the acid rain problem by taking action
    soon.

                                     ______

      Responses of Bernard Melewski to Additional Questions from Senator
                                    Jeffords

        Question 1. The Hubbard Brook Research Foundation, the preeminent
    institution for the study of acid rain, has said that cuts in sulfur
    dioxide of at least 80 percent beyond phase II (that's down to about
    1.8 million tons) will be necessary if we are to see biological
    recovery in the lakes and streams of the Adirondacks by mid-century.
    You probably know that Clear Skies stays above that level, at the 3
    million ton level, until at least 2061. Is that acceptable to your
    members?
        Response. Our members are interested in stopping the damage from
    acid rain as soon as possible. We would prefer an elimination of all
    power plant emissions upwind of the Adirondacks. Reductions of an
    additional fifty percent in emissions of acid rain precursors from
    power plants, which is the minimum that needs to be done, has been
    proposed in Congress virtually every year since the passage of the 1990
    Clean Air Act Amendments without success.
        The Hubbard Brook Foundation report is not a revelation to
    scientists in the field, but is a logical outcome. The faster we cut
    emissions and the deeper the cuts the more rapid the chemical change
    and then biological recovery. Thus an 80 percent reduction promotes
    full recovery at a faster rate than a 50 percent reduction.
        Recent studies published by the USEPA and others provide scientific
    certainty that Congress targeted the correct pollutants from the
    appropriate sources in enacting Title Four of the Clean Air Act
    Amendments of 1990. Signs of chemical recovery are there in the waters
    of the Adirondacks ans elsewhere. But more must be done and soon.
        But every year of delay means more damage to sensitive areas like
    the Adirondack Park. That is why our testimony puts emphasis on the
    need to reach agreement on the fastest timetable with the deepest cuts
    that can move out of Committee and pass the Senate this year.

        Question 2. EPA's climate assessment work indicates that virtually
    all brook and brown trout habitat, as well as fifty to seventy percent
    of maple forests, could be lost throughout New York due to global
    warming. And, as a result, the character of heavily visited areas like
    the Adirondacks may change. Do you believe that there is a significant
    risk of substantial ecological and economic harm facing the Adirondacks
    due to global warming?
        Response. The Adirondack Council, in the fall of 2002, held a major
    conference entitled AClimate Change and the Future of the Adirondacks.@
    The conference reaffirmed that climate change is real and could
    eventually have profound impacts on the natural resources, weather
    patterns and tourism industry within the Adirondack Park.
        As we testified, the Adirondack Council is supportive of the
    addition of provisions on climate change in any bill that the Committee
    and the full Senate may choose to advance. There are a number of
    proposals from mandatory controls to phased decreases in carbon dioxide
    emissions that provide an opportunity for compromise. We do not
    support, however, further inaction on sulfur and nitrogen emissions
    from power plants due to disagreement in the Senate over the
    appropriate provisions on climate change. We need action on acid rain
    as soon as possible.
        It is also important to acknowledge that stopping acid rain is an
    integral part of any climate change strategy. Recent studies from NAPAP
    to the Hubbard Brook Foundation acknowledge that acid deposition is
    disrupting the life cycle of our forests. From Maine to Georgia, our
    forests are in poor health due to the complex and damaging impact of
    acid deposition. Healthy forests are critical to carbon sequestration
    and to moderate the affects of global warming by cooling the landscape.
    The Adirondack Park, with its AForever Wild@ Constitution protection,
    may be a model for future climate change programs.
        Restoring the vitality of our forests should be a critical element
    of any climate change strategy, and that means bringing and end to acid
    deposition as rapidly as possible.
                                     ______

      Response of Bernard Melewski to an Additional Question from Senator
                                   Voinovich

        Question. In your testimony, you mentioned that adoption of the
    caps proposed for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide in the Clear Skies
    Act will set the course for recovery of the Adirondacks, and the many
    other acid rain ravaged sections of the country.
        Critics of Clear Skies claim that the bill will actually roll back
    the Clean Air Act.
        Would the recovery you talk about in your testimony be faster under
    current Clean Air Act provisions?
        Response. The existing provisions of the Clean Air Act are not
    adequate to solve the acid rain problem. First, it is an unreliable
    assumption that the law will be expeditiously executed. The historic
    reality of Clean Air Act implementation has been erratic enforcement,
    prolonged litigation and fits and starts in implementation. This
    pattern has endured over a number of Democratic and Republican
    Administrations. Notably, there has been one exception and that has
    been the implementation of the cap and trade market-based provisions of
    Title Four of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the Acid Rain
    Provisions. The Clear Skies Act, S. 485 , and other major proposals
    before the Committee seek to capitalize on the success of that program
    which to date has met or exceeded all deadlines with virtual 100
    percent compliance by the affected industry, at significantly below
    projected cost.
        While the mechanism has been shown to be worth emulating, the caps
    on emissions established in 1990 were too high to achieve the
    fundamental goal of the program: to stop the damage to sensitive
    resources from acid rain. This gap between goal and performance has
    been documented in several Reports to Congress since 1990. The Act must
    be amended to lower the emission caps on sulfur and to establish a new
    cap-and-trade program on nitrogen year-round. A similar cap-and-trade
    approach was recently proposed for carbon dioxide emissions for the
    northeast by New York Governor George Pataki.
        Recent efforts to discredit the Clear Skies Act have compared
    projected outcomes from full implementation of the existing Act, with
    the projected levels of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen emissions predicted
    for the Clear Skies proposal. If one extends the comparison to other
    bills sponsored in the Committee, one readily finds that none of the
    major proposals are as effective in both nitrogen and sulfur reductions
    as the predicted outcome of faithful implementation on of the Clean Air
    Act. Either one presumes that nobody knows what they doing on Capitol
    Hill or one has to conclude, as we do, that hypothetical scenarios
    should not be the basis for establishing national policy.

                            CLEAR SKIES ACT OF 2003

                                  ----------

                             THURSDAY, MAY 8, 2003

                                           U.S. Senate,
                     Committee on Environment and Public Works,
         Subcommittee on Clean Air, Climate Change and Nuclear
                                                        Safety,
                                                        Washington, DC.
        The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:35 a.m. in
    room 406, Dirksen Office Building, Hon. George Voinovich
    [chairman of the subcommittee] presiding.
        Present: Senators Voinovich, Carper, Jeffords [ex officio]
    and Inhofe [ex officio].

     OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JAMES M. INHOFE, U.S. SENATOR FROM
                         THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA

        Senator Inhofe. The hearing will come to order.
        We have an awkward situation this morning that I will
    explain to you. That is we have a vote beginning in about 5
    minutes. I have a conflict with the Senate Armed Services
    Committee where we are currently marking up that bill, so I
    will go ahead with an opening statement. By the time I am
    through, I believe the members will be coming in. If not, we
    will recess until they come in and I won't be able to stay. Let
    me than you for coming, Mr. McSlarrow. It is always a pleasure
    working with you in many, many capacities and this is another.
        I also want to extend my appreciation to Richard Metz who
    made the trip here today from Oklahoma to explain the pressures
    facing the natural gas industry.
        This hearing will help us understand the relationship of
    clean air requirements to natural gas supplies, price levels
    and price volatility. Natural gas is a vital fuel source in
    meeting our Nation's energy requirements. Natural gas heats
    homes, creates electricity for power, plants and industrial
    users, and is used as a feedstock in the production of many
    goods and services.
        In 2002, these sectors consumed almost 22 trillion cubic
    feet of natural gas. Powerplants generating electricity for the
    grid consumer consume about one fourth that amount, as does the
    residential market. The remaining half is largely consumed by
    commercial and industrial users.
        I am committed to maintaining a diverse fuel mix in the
    generation of our Nation's electricity. Natural gas is an
    important an integral fuel in maintaining that diversity.
    Unfortunately, over the last decade due to clean air
    requirements, virtually all powerplants coming on-line has been
    gas-fired. One of the strengths of natural gas historically was
    that it provided needed supplies at fairly stable and
    reasonable prices. I am concerned this strength has been eroded
    by the over-reliance on gas to meet our electricity needs. The
    effects are already becoming clear. While natural gas prices
    were fairly stable through the 1990's, the prices have become
    more volatile in recent years. As this chart shows, in 2000 and
    early 2001, average monthly natural gas wellhead spot prices
    climbed from about $2 to $9, then settled down to $2 at the end
    of that year. Earlier this year, average prices climbed to more
    than $7 with prices spiking at $19 on February 25.

        As this next chart shows, gas prices are not only becoming
    more volatile, but are projected to increase in real terms. As
    you can see, according to Energy Administration reports, the
    2003 projected prices through 2005 are higher for the same
    period than had been forecast for just the year before. Even
    2003 projections now look overly optimistic given current
    prices of $6.

        Of course these price swings and hikes do not occur in a
    vacuum. Part of this is due to limits on production and
    restrictions on constructing pipelines which are issues I
    believe need to be resolved to help the industry continue to
    supply this critical fuel source.
        At the same time as gas production is facing increased
    challenges, demand has increased and that demand is projected
    to increase more in the future as this chart shows. This spike
    in demand has had adverse impacts on small businesses, many
    fertilizer manufacturers and plants have gone out of business
    as a result of the price spikes over the last few years. Many
    manufacturers use natural gas not only to power their
    facilities but in the production process itself. U.S. chemical
    producers are now the world's highest cost producers because
    they are dependent upon natural gas prices and prices are
    higher here than elsewhere in the world.

        I remain concerned that with the large amount of investment
    needed by coal plants to comply with significant emissions
    reductions contemplated under Clear Skies, fuel switching could
    become even worse despite the rising prices. As I have said
    before, one of my top priorities is to ensure that quality
    science drives policy and not the other way around. We have had
    some bad experiences in the past where policies were derived
    and concluded and then they come up with the science to justify
    the policy positions.
        It is imperative that this committee be sure the modeling
    assumptions used to justify the bill related to fuel switching,
    natural gas markets, and control technologies are accurate and
    objective. In future hearings on Clear Skies, I hope the
    Administration will provide us with the necessary data to make
    these evaluations.
        I have testimony from the Aluminum Association and
    Fertilizer Institute and will submit them for the record.
    Without objection, it will be submitted.
        With that, we have a vote in progress and I believe
    probably the members of the committee are going to vote and
    then come here. I appreciate the indulgence of the audience, of
    you Mr. McSlarrow and you Mr. Metz for having to proceed in
    this manner. Thank you very much.
        We are now in recess subject to the call of the chair.
        [Recess.]

      OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, U.S. SENATOR
                         FROM THE STATE OF OHIO

        Senator Voinovich. The hearing will come out of recess.
        I understand from talking to the chairman of the committee
    that he began the hearing this morning and shared his opening
    statements with you.
        I would like you to know this is the second hearing we have
    had on the Clear Skies Act, S. 485 and continues the discussion
    we in this committee have had for several years on the complex
    issue of how to clear our air by reducing emissions without
    putting our economy in a stranglehold.
        Today's hearing will focus on the issues surrounding our
    use of natural gas to generate electricity. There is perhaps no
    greater illustration of our need to harmonize our environmental
    and energy policies than the effects of fuel switching from
    coal-based generation of electricity to natural gas-based
    generation on our economy. Americans consumed 22.6 trillion
    cubic feet of natural gas in 2001; currently we consume
    approximately 25 trillion cubic feet annually and are projected
    to consume 37.5 trillion cubic feet in 2025. Natural gas is
    used to heat homes, generate electricity and in the commercial,
    industrial and transportation sectors.
        Historically, the industrial sector has been the largest
    natural gas consuming sector, consuming 7.5 trillion cubic feet
    in 2001, followed by residential use for home heating, water
    heating and cooking and natural gas consumption in the
    industrial and residential sectors is roughly about what it was
    in the 1980's. Natural gas for electricity generation, however,
    has risen considerably during the last two decades to 5.3
    trillion cubic feet in 2001 and is projected to grow even more
    dramatically over the next 2 years. EIA projects that 30
    percent of the electricity generated in 2025 will be natural
    gas-based, a significant increase over the 17 percent of our
    electricity that was generated by natural gas in 2001 and 2002.
        Reliance on natural gas for even this much generation has
    put a tremendous strain on natural gas supplies and pushed
    prices on available gas to record high prices. The President's
    National Energy Policy Task Force projected that over 1,300 new
    powerplants will be needed to be built to satisfy America's
    energy needs over the next 20 years. Because of the emissions
    limits and regulatory uncertainty triggered by the Clean Air
    Act, the Department of Energy currently predicts that over 90
    percent of these new plants will be powered by natural gas.
        Just this week, I was told by the CEO of a major utility in
    Ohio that does business not only in Ohio but in the Midwest,
    that due to regulatory uncertainty, surrounding coal-based
    generation that confronts him, the only option he has when
    building new capacity is to switch to natural gas because of
    where we are today in terms of the uncertainty of the future.
        We do not have enough natural gas to power all these new
    facilities and we do not have the capability to increase our
    supply to meet this demand. We do, however, have major domestic
    reserves of natural gas in the Rockies, off the East Coast, off
    the West Coast and in the Gulf of New Mexico that are off
    limits for development. We have tremendous reserves of natural
    gas in Alaska without the ability to pipe it down to the lower
    48. Perhaps most disturbing, we have seen a 5.6 percent decline
    in natural gas supplies in the continental United States in
    2002 and a 2.3 percent decline in domestic natural gas
    production in 2002.
        Unless Congress develops a plan to deal with the situation,
    we are looking at major natural gas shortages and enormous
    increases in natural gas prices which will inevitably lead to
    higher electricity prices. Shortages of the natural gas supply
    result in increase in natural gas prices and do not just affect
    utilities. This is very important. Many other industries rely
    on natural gas such as the agriculture community, the steel and
    metal industries, the plastic manufacturing industry which is
    being devastated in Ohio because of the high cost of natural
    gas, polymer manufacturers and the food processing industry.
        A major shortage of natural gas coupled with skyrocketing
    energy prices will ensure that many of our companies will no
    longer be able to remain competitive in the global marketplace.
    Today we will hear from Jim Krimmel, the President of Zaclon
    Chemical, Inc., an Ohio-based chemical manufacturer with
    worldwide sales who will discuss the enormous burdens that
    increased energy costs have placed on his business and
    threatened the very existence of his company.
        Although high natural gas prices have severely affected
    businesses and their ability to compete in the global
    marketplace, they have an even more profound impact on low
    income families and the elderly. Each year, many Americans are
    forced to make choices between paying to heat their homes, for
    food or other essentials such as medicine and energy prices are
    very, very high.
        In order to diffuse the time bomb of skyrocketing natural
    gas and electricity prices that is sitting in our lap, Congress
    must enact a comprehensive energy policy that will increase our
    development of natural gas supplies and ensure that we have a
    diverse fuel mix for electricity generation that includes
    nuclear renewables, natural gas and coal. To get there, the
    Senate must pass both comprehensive energy legislation that
    promotes domestic natural gas development and multi-pollutant
    legislation that will streamline the regulatory process,
    maintain the diversity of our fuel mix and achieve greater
    emissions cuts to protect our environment.
        I am pleased to note that our distinguished Majority
    Leader, Senator Frist, has brought the Energy bill to the
    Senate floor this week in order to address our Nation's need
    for a comprehensive energy policy. It is no coincidence that we
    are considering both energy legislation and environmental
    legislation at the same time as they really are two sides of
    the same coin. Any worthwhile energy policy must take into
    account protection of the environment and at the same time any
    worthwhile environmental policy must take into account
    protection of our economy.
        The Clear Skies Act, S. 485, I believe is an example of
    environmental legislation that will protect our economy, will
    improve the Clean Air Act by providing greater certainty that
    emissions are reduced while providing a stable, regulatory
    environment that allows utilities to install necessary
    pollution controls without the fear that those controls will be
    obsolete before they are paid for. It will result in cleaner
    air, less regulation, and litigation. It will lower energy
    costs to manufacturers and American consumers. Simply put, this
    legislation will provide tremendous benefits to the environment
    and is crucial to the long term survival of our economy and our
    manufacturing base.
        I want all of you to note here that manufacturing in this
    country is really under pressure today. It is more vulnerable
    today and more at risk than at any time in my career in
    government.
        The flexibility of the Clear Skies market base cap and
    trade program and the certainty of emissions reduction targets
    will ensure that the real emissions reductions called for in
    this bill can be achieved without forcing utilities to fuel
    switch and without forcing electricity and natural gas prices
    through the roof. Perhaps more importantly, Clear Skies will
    help ensure that the least of our brothers and sisters will not
    be forced to forego heating their homes and that our companies
    will not be forced to move overseas to remain competitive in
    the global marketplace due to high cost of electricity and
    natural gas.
        As I mentioned at the beginning of my remarks, this is the
    second hearing we are holding in this subcommittee on Clear
    Skies. It is my intention to hold a third hearing on this
    legislation in the near future that will focus on emissions
    reduction technology and issues surrounding the financial
    stability of the utilities that are required to install such
    equipment in order to complete with the Clean Air Act
    requirements.
        I also intend to mark up Clear Skies at the subcommittee
    level following the Memorial Day recess and I want to restate
    my firm commitment to push hard to have the full committee
    report to the floor and have the Senate pass this bill in this
    Congress.
        I want to thank our first witness this morning, Deputy
    Secretary McSlarrow for coming to present the Administration's
    take on natural gas supply and pricing issues to the
    subcommittee. I look forward also to the testimony of our other
    witnesses and to working with members of the subcommittee as we
    move forward on legislation to address these critical issues.
        Senator Jeffords, the ranking member of the committee, has
    joined us. Senator Jeffords?

    OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JAMES M. JEFFORDS, U.S. SENATOR FROM
                          THE STATE OF VERMONT

        Senator Jeffords. Thank you.
        It is always important that the committee collect
    information on the effects of legislation on various sectors of
    the economy, including energy, industry and natural gas. Of
    course, however, the committee's first and foremost
    responsibility is to be sure the Nation's laws are protective
    of public health and the environment. It is our job to set
    performance standards for industry that are adequately
    productive and wherever possible, fuel neutral. These standards
    should not be skewed to protect any one industry but should
    encourage sustainable, economic development.
        The Clear Skies proposal does not fit that criteria. As one
    analyst said, ``It is the best case scenario for coal.'' The
    proposal was designed to protect 40 or 50 year old coal-burning
    plants from any risk of having to meet modern environmental
    standards or needs. That is hardly fuel neutral and so it does
    nothing to stimulate the development of technology to burn coal
    more cleanly and efficiently.
        I have grave concerns that Clear Skies will do a much worse
    job than the current Clean Air Act when fully and faithfully
    implemented. Clear Skies caps are too weak, the deadlines are
    too late, and the State authorities are to degraded. Because of
    these flaws, the bill will delay the attainment in many areas
    forcing millions of people to breathe unhealthy air longer than
    the current Air Act allows. That is the outcome that I am not
    willing to accept.
        As I have noted in previous hearings, quality and timely
    information is crucial if we are going to work out a compromise
    on multi-pollutant legislation that can be supported by this
    committee. Unfortunately, such information has been hard to
    come by from this Administration. I am starting to believe that
    this is because they are not interested in compromise.
        Governor Whitman promised me in February that the
    information flow would improve but I am still waiting on
    answers to questions from March. Perhaps Mr. McSlarrow can
    explain today why the Department of Energy has completely
    failed to provide an NSR document log that it promised on
    September 25, 2002 would be delivered to the committee on
    October 24, 2002. In addition, at some point very soon, the
    Administration will have to explain why they are not allowing
    EPA to run emissions and economic modeling for the Federal
    Advisory Committee working on the Utility MACT Rule.
        Without objection, I would like to place in the record
    NESCAUM's effort to analyze what EPA won't.
        Senator Voinovich. Without objection.
        [The information referred to follows:]

      Mercury MACT Under the Clean Air Act: An Assessment of the Mercury
            Emissions Outcomes of Stakeholder Group Recommendations
                              nescaum--may 8, 2003

    1.0 Background
        Mercury is a persistent, bioaccumulative, neurotoxic pollutant.
    When released into the environment and deposited or carried into water
    bodies, mercury is easily converted to methylmercury, a particularly
    toxic mercury compound, and accumulates in sediments. Methylmercury is
    readily transmitted up the food chain and accumulates in the tissues of
    animals. Exposure to mercury can cause numerous adverse effects in
    plants, birds, and mammals, including humans.
        In humans, methylmercury is transported across the placenta into
    the brain of the developing fetus. In young children and fetuses,
    methylmercury inhibits the normal development of the nervous system, an
    effect that may occur even at low exposure levels. This damage
    frequently is not apparent until later in the developmental process,
    when motor and verbal skills are found to be delayed or abnormal.
    Developmental effects have been found in children exposed in utero,
    even though their mothers did not experience any symptoms of adult
    toxicity. States are sufficiently concerned about the public health
    impacts of mercury exposure that most have posted advisory warnings
    about fish consumption--the primary exposure route in humans.
        In 1998, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identified
    mercury as the hazardous air pollutant of ``greatest potential
    concern'' associated with coal-fired electricity production.\1\
    Moreover, coal-fired power plants were identified as the largest
    remaining source of airborne mercury emissions in the U.S. following
    the regulation of other important mercury sources, such as municipal
    and medical waste incinerators, in the late 1990's. Under a legal
    settlement reached pursuant to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,
    EPA is required to promulgate mercury emissions standards for
    electricity generating utility boilers by December 2004. These
    standards--which according to the explicit language of the Clean Air
    Act must reflect the utilization of ``Maximum Achievable Control
    Technology'' for mercury--are expected to be implemented by December
    2007.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \1\U.S. EPA. 1998. Study of Hazardous Air Pollutant Emissions from
    Electric Utility Steam Generating Units--Final Report to Congress.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        To assist in the development of Maximum Achievable Control
    Technology (MACT) standards for power plant mercury emissions, EPA
    convened a multi-stakeholder group known as the Utility MACT Working
    Group (hereafter, Working Group). The Northeast States for Coordinated
    Air Use Management (NESCAUM) has participated in this group since its
    inception. NESCAUM is an interstate association of air quality control
    agencies in the eight Northeast States (the six New England States, New
    York, and New Jersey). Together with other Working Group participants,
    NESCAUM worked to develop a set of specific recommendations to EPA
    concerning issues related to the setting of MACT standards for mercury
    emissions, consistent with the requirements of the Clean Air Act.
        Ultimately, the stakeholder groups participating in the Working
    Group could not agree on a single set of recommendations for mercury
    emissions standards. Instead, the Working Group's deliberations
    resulted in separate recommendations from a range of stakeholders,
    including distinct recommendations from four major stakeholder groups:
    the State and Local Agency Stakeholders,\2\ the Environmental
    Stakeholders,\3\ the Clean Energy Group (CEG),\4\ and multi-industry
    stakeholders under the name ``Majority Industry Group.''\5\ The first
    three of these groups reached significant consensus, however, jointly
    signing a memorandum to the members of the Clean Air Act Advisory
    Committee indicating that there were, in fact, broad areas of agreement
    among them.\6\ This memorandum also expressed concern that the final
    report of the Working Group had obscured the extent to which consensus
    had been achieved among many of the stakeholders on important issues.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \2\State and Local Agency Stakeholders included NESCAUM, STAPPA/
    ALAPCO, the State of New Jersey, and the Regional Air Pollution Control
    Agency (RAPCA) based in Dayton, Ohio. (The State of Texas also
    participated in the Working Group, but preferred to offer a separate
    opinion on several issues.)
         \3\Environmental Stakeholders included the Clean Air Task Force,
    National Wildlife Federation, National Environmental Trust, Natural
    Resources Defense Council, and Environmental Defense.
         \4\The Clean Energy Group was represented in the Working Group by
    PG&E National Energy Group. Two of its members, Consolidated Edison and
    Public Service Enterprise Group, also participated in the Working
    Group. Other Clean Energy Group members include Conectiv, Exelon
    Corporation, KeySpan, Northeast Utilities, and Sempra Energy.
         \5\The Majority Industry Group was represented principally by
    Cinergy, the Class of 85 Regulatory Response Group, Latham & Watkins,
    the National Mining Association, Seminole Electric Cooperative,
    Southern Company Generation, the United Mine Workers, the Utility Air
    Regulatory Group, West Associates, the American Public Power
    Association, and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association.
         \6\``Areas of Agreement Among Stakeholders in the Utility MACT
    Working Group,'' Memorandum dated October 30, 2002.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Throughout the Working Group's deliberations, EPA represented its
    intention to model the impact of stakeholder group recommendations on
    mercury emissions from the electric power sector using ICF's IPM model.
    Recently, however, EPA indicated that it will delay--and perhaps forego
    entirely--any IPM analysis of stakeholder recommendations. In light of
    this decision, NESCAUM decided to analyze the emissions impacts of the
    recommendations of these four stakeholder groups participating in the
    Working Group.
        Each of the stakeholder groups submitted recommendations for
    mercury reductions in terms of a specific rate-based emission standard
    or an alternative approach allowing sources to meet either a specific
    rate-based emission standard or a specific percentage reduction
    requirement. NESCAUM undertook this analysis in order to translate each
    group's recommendations into the annual tons of mercury that would be
    released to the environment. Notwithstanding this analysis, NESCAUM
    urges EPA to model the stakeholder group recommendations with IPM,
    consistent with its original representations, in order to provide a
    more complete picture of the emissions impact of implementing various
    policy options for regulating mercury from power plants.

    2.0 Methodology
        The total mercury tonnage that would be emitted under each
    stakeholder group's MACT recommendation was calculated using the
    underlying fuel consumption data and uncontrolled mercury emissions
    information reported in EPA's Utility Air Toxics Study data base. This
    analysis does not attempt to project growth in fuel consumption, nor
    does it model changes in the methods of electricity production. Such a
    dynamic analysis would require the use of a system dispatch model like
    IPM. However, we are confident that this analysis provides reasonable
    estimates of the annual tons of mercury that would be emitted by the
    electric power sector under each of the scenarios considered.
        All of the stakeholder group recommendations were analyzed using a
    subset of the power plants in the EPA Utility Air Toxics Study data
    base.\7\ Plant-by-plant mercury emissions estimates were downloaded
    from EPA's website.\8\ These data were compared with mercury input
    concentrations in the coal purchased by power plants, which was
    compiled from first, second, third and fourth quarter 1999 coal data
    downloaded from the same source.\9\ There were 412 power plants for
    which both coal data and EPA plant emissions estimates existed for
    mercury. These 412 facilities--emitting an estimated 44.6 tons of
    mercury in 1999--were included in the analysis. EPA estimates that the
    entire universe of facilities in its Utility Air Toxics Study data base
    emitted approximately 48 tons of mercury in 1999.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \7\This was necessary because certain data were not available for
    a small subset of the facilities in the EPA Utility Air Toxics Study
    data base.
         \8\``Plant by Plant Emissions Estimates,'' Wordperfect file
    downloaded March 26, 2002 from http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/combust/
    utiltox/utoxpg.html.
         \9\Data base compiled by Michael Aucott of the New Jersey
    Department of Environmental Protection.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Because the State and Local Agency Stakeholder group recommendation
    did not include lignite, coal-fired power plants that reported lignite
    as their primary coal type were excluded from the analysis of that
    group's recommendations, eliminating 11 facilities. These 11 facilities
    generated an estimated 3.1 tons of mercury emissions in 1999.
    Eliminating these 11 facilities left 401 coal-fired power plants
    available for the analysis of this stakeholder group's MACT
    recommendation. In 1999, these 401 power plants emitted an estimated
    41.5 tons of mercury.
        In converting the stakeholders' recommendations to annual mercury
    emissions in tons, the analysis assumes that those sources whose
    emissions are already below the recommended limits will not increase
    their emissions to the maximum allowable level.

    3.0 Analysis of Stakeholder Group Recommendations
        Annual emissions in tons of mercury from electric power plants
    after the MACT standard is implemented are estimated below for each of
    the recommendations of the four stakeholder groups. The results of this
    assessment are summarized in Appendix A.

    3.1 State and Local Agency Stakeholder Group
        Recommendation: The State and Local Agency Stakeholders recommended
    a plant-by-plant standard equivalent to the less stringent of 0.4-0.6
    pounds per trillion British thermal units (lbs/TBtu) or a 90 percent
    reduction (from the mercury content in coal). This standard would only
    apply to bituminous and subbituminous coal. This stakeholder group did
    not submit a recommendation for plants burning primarily lignite.
        Two approaches were analyzed. The first allowed sources to choose
    between complying with a rate-based emission standard of 0.6 lbs/TBtu
    or a 90 percent reduction from the mercury content in coal. It was
    assumed that sources would select the less stringent of these two
    compliance paths. Using this approach, of the 401 facilities included
    in this stakeholder group's analysis, 47 facilities would continue to
    emit at current levels (i.e., current emissions are below the proposed
    standard), 188 would choose to comply with the 90 percent control
    efficiency option, and 166 would choose to comply with the emission
    rate standard of 0.6 lbs/TBtu. Overall, this would result in annual
    mercury emissions of approximately 6.7 tons.
        The second approach allowed sources to choose between a rate-based
    emission standard of 0.4 lbs/TBtu or a 90 percent reduction. Using the
    method applied above, 43 of the 401 facilities included in the analysis
    would continue to emit at current levels (i.e., current emissions are
    below the proposed standard), 306 would choose to comply with the 90
    percent control efficiency option, and 52 would choose to comply with
    the emission rate standard of 0.4 lbs/TBtu. Overall, this would result
    in annual mercury emissions of 6.3 tons.

    3.2 Environmental Stakeholder Group
        Recommendation: The Environmental Stakeholders recommended a plant-
    by-plant standard of 0.19 lbs/TBtu for fluidized bed combustion (FBC)
    facilities and 0.21 lbs/TBtu for all other facility types. This
    standard would apply to all coal types.
        The Environmental Stakeholder Group's recommendation applied to all
    coal types, allowing the 11 lignite-burning plants to be included in
    this analysis, yielding a total of 412 facilities for which adequate
    data were available to assess the emissions impact of the recommended
    standards. Overall, the Environmental Stakeholder Group's recommended
    standards would result in annual mercury emissions of 1.9 tons.

    3.3 Clean Energy Group Recommendation
        Recommendation: The Clean Energy Group recommended a plant-by-plant
    standard of 0.320 lbs/TBtu for FBC facilities burning bituminous or
    subbituminous coal, 1.223 lbs/TBtu for all other boiler types burning
    bituminous or subbituminous coal, 11.984 lbs/TBtu for FBC facilities
    burning lignite, and 9.091 lbs/TBtu for all other boiler types burning
    lignite. Although CEG has indicated it would support a standard
    allowing sources to comply with either a specified emission rate or a
    specified control efficiency, CEG made emission rate recommendations
    only based on its understanding that IPM cannot model control
    efficiency standards.
        The Clean Energy Group's recommendation was applied to all 412
    facilities for which adequate emissions data were available. Overall,
    the Clean Energy Group's recommended standards would result in annual
    mercury emissions of 13.1 tons.

    3.4 Majority Industry Group Recommendation
        Recommendation: The Majority Industry Group recommended a plant-by-
    plant standard of 3.7 lbs/TBtu for hot stack facilities burning
    bituminous coal, 2.2 lbs/TBtu for saturated stack facilities burning
    bituminous coal, 3.2 lbs/TBtu for wet stack facilities burning
    bituminous coal, 4.2 lbs/TBtu for facilities burning subbituminous
    coal, 6.5 lbs/TBtu for facilities burning lignite, and 2.0 lbs/TBtu for
    FBC facilities.
        NESCAUM did not have access to data regarding the stack
    characteristics of the facilities burning bituminous coal (i.e., hot,
    saturated, or wet), and thus was unable to precisely convert the
    Majority Industry Group's recommendation into total tons of mercury
    emitted annually. We bracketed the range of annual emissions, however,
    by calculating tons emitted from facilities burning bituminous coal
    assuming: (1) that for the low (most stringent) end of the range, all
    such facilities would comply with the lowest recommended emission rate
    of 2.2 lbs/TBtu, and (2) that for the high (least stringent) end of the
    range, all such facilities would comply with the highest recommended
    emission rate of 3.7 lbs/TBtu. Emission rates for other facilities and
    fuel types were applied as recommended. Overall, the Majority Industry
    Group's recommended standards would result in annual mercury emissions
    between 25.0 and 30.0 tons.

    4.0 Discussion
        Under the Federal Clean Air Act, the mercury MACT standard for the
    electric generating sector is required to be proposed by December 2003,
    promulgated in final form by December 2004, and is expected to be
    implemented by December 2007. Thus, under the existing Clean Air Act
    (i.e., unmodified by any Federal multi-pollutant legislation applicable
    to the power sector), the public can expect reductions in mercury
    pollution from power plants to occur by the end of 2007.
        It is difficult to predict the level at which EPA will ultimately
    set the mercury MACT standard. However, it is worth noting that some
    States have already moved to adopt mercury standards in the range of
    stringency recommended by the State and Local Agencies Stakeholder
    Group and on a similar timeline to that expected under the Clean Air
    Act for implementation of a Federal MACT standard. In March 2003, for
    instance, a coalition\10\ of an electric generating company and several
    environmental groups publicly issued a joint recommendation to the
    Connecticut General Assembly calling for legislation establishing
    stringent mercury emission standards for Connecticut's coal-fired power
    plants. Specifically, their proposal would require coal-fired plants in
    Connecticut to achieve either a mercury emission rate of 0.6 lbs/TBtu
    or a 90 percent control technology efficiency by July 2008. The
    proposal further directs the Connecticut Department of Environmental
    Protection to consider new emissions standards for mercury in 2012.
    Similarly, the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection has
    concluded that the removal of at least 85-90 percent of mercury in flue
    gas has been demonstrated to be technologically and economically
    feasible.\11\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \10\This coalition included PSEG Power Connecticut, Clean Water
    Action, the Connecticut Coalition for Clean Air, and the Clean Air Task
    Force.
         \11\``Evaluation of the Technological and Economic Feasibility of
    Controlling and Eliminating Mercury Emissions from the Combustion of
    Fossil Fuel,'' Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection,
    December 2002.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    5.0 Conclusion
        This analysis was conducted to facilitate comparisons among
    different Stakeholder Group recommendations within the EPA Utility MACT
    Working Group process and several legislative proposals currently
    before Congress to reduce multiple types of pollutant emissions from
    the power sector, including mercury. Most of these legislative
    proposals would set aside the MACT process authorized under the Clean
    Air Act and would address power plant mercury emissions directly, in
    most cases by establishing a national cap on power sector mercury
    emissions and (in some cases) also establishing facility-specific
    minimum mercury reduction requirements. An important dimension of all
    of these proposals is the timeframe over which mercury reductions would
    be implemented. As noted several times in this discussion, under
    current law new MACT standards will be implemented by the end of 2007.
    By comparison, at least one proposal now before Congress delays full
    action on mercury for more than a decade compared to the mercury MACT
    process.
        The consequences of delay in implementing new mercury control
    requirements are potentially significant in terms of foregone
    reductions in the quantities of this persistent, bio-accumulative toxin
    that will be released to the environment over the next 10 to 15 years.
    Compared to the MACT recommendations of the State and Local Agency
    Stakeholder Group, for example, the more delayed legislative proposal
    noted previously would result in the allowable emission of an
    additional 258 tons of mercury between 2007 and 2020. Even assuming EPA
    picks a less stringent MACT standard representing a middle ground
    between the more centrist Stakeholder Group recommendations summarized
    in Appendix A, foregone emissions reductions relative to the more
    delayed legislative proposals now before Congress could be significant.
    For example, utilizing the same comparison as above, a MACT standard
    equivalent to an annual cap of 11 tons--if implemented in 2008--would
    likely reduce cumulative emissions by more than 180 tons by 2020,
    compared to a phased approach that delays similar levels of control for
    another 10 years. This represents approximately 4 years worth of
    mercury emissions at current emission rates (44.6-48.0 tons per year).
    Due to its persistence in the environment, any additional mercury
    emitted as a result of delaying new control requirements will remain
    bioavailable for years, needlessly accumulating in the food chain that
    ultimately reaches humans.
        We hope that the results of this analysis will help avoid lost
    opportunities of this nature by providing useful guidance both to EPA
    in reaching its final mercury MACT determination for power plants and
    to policymakers in Congress as they consider multi-pollutant
    legislation incorporating mercury emission limits.

                                  Appendix A.

                           SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS RESULTS
                              NESCAUM--May 5, 2003
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     Recommended      Relevant    Post-MACT
                                       Mercury         Annual       Annual
          Stakeholder Group            Emission       Baseline    Emissions
                                       Standard        (tons)       (tons)
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Environmental Stakeholders...  0.19 lbs/TBtu
                                    for FBC
                                    facilities.
                                   44.6...........          1.9
    0.21 lbs/TBtu for all other
     facility types for all coal
     types
    State and Local Agencies.....  0.4-0.6 lbs/            41.5      6.3-6.7
                                    TBtu or a 90
                                    percent
                                    reduction,
                                    applied to
                                    bituminous and
                                    subbituminous
                                    coal.
    Clean Energy Group...........  0.320 lbs/TBtu
                                    for FBC
                                    facilities
                                    burning
                                    bituminous or
                                    sub-bituminous
                                    coal.

    1.223 lbs/TBtu for all other
     boiler types burning
     bituminous or sub-bituminous
     coal

    11.984 lbs/TBtu for FBC
     facilities burning lignite
                                   44.6...........         13.1
    9.091 lbs/TBtu for all other
     boiler types burning lignite
    Majority Industry Group......  3.7 lbs/TBtu
                                    for hot stack
                                    facilities
                                    burning
                                    bituminous
                                    coal.

    2.2 lbs/TBtu for saturated
     stack facilities burning
     bituminous coal

    3.2 lbs/TBtu for wet stack
     facilities burning
     bituminous coal

    4.2 lbs/TBtu for facilities
     burning subbituminous coal

    6.5 lbs/TBtu for facilities
     burning lignite
                                   44.6...........    20.0-30.0
    2.0 lbs/TBtu for FBC
     facilities
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Senator Jeffords. The Administration's behavior on this
    issue makes me think they don't want information in the public
    domain if it might show the mercury caps in Clear Skies are
    above what is achievable and cost effective with today's
    technology. This failure to deliver promised information looks
    like intentional derailing of the Utility MACT Rule. At the
    right time, I hope the court enforcing the consent decree will
    note the Administration's bad faith on this
        Mercury is a potent air toxic emitted by coal burning
    powerplants. Emissions must be reduced quickly and deeply. I
    ask that a letter on mercury from more than 200 State and local
    conservation organizations and officials be included in the
    hearing record.
        Senator Voinovich. Without objection.
        [The information referred to follows:]
    205 State and Local Conservation Organizations, Businesses and Elected
                                   Officials
                                                           May 7, 2003.

    U.S. Senate and House of Representatives,
    Washington, DC 20003.

    Dear Senators and Members of Congress: As the Senate and House begin
    consideration of the President's air pollution proposal, introduced on
    February 27 by Senators James Inhofe and George Voinovich and
    Representatives Billy Tauzin and Joe Barton, it is critical that you
    are aware of our concerns that the bill moves the Nation backwards
    rather than forwards on air pollution. Rather than build on a firm
    foundation of the Clean Air Act, the President's bill severely
    undermines that foundation, leaving the public to rely solely upon a
    system of pollution caps that will allow higher emissions over a much
    longer period of time than current law. We strongly urge you to reject
    this approach.
        This unfortunate reality is especially evident in the sections of
    the President's bill that address emissions of mercury, an extremely
    toxic heavy metal. Much of the mercury pollution emitted into our air
    ends up in our food chain, accumulating in fish, a staple of the
    American diet. The problem is widespread: 44 States have posted mercury
    advisories warning people to limit consumption of fish from 10,179, 247
    acres of lakes and 414, 973 miles of rivers.
        For those who eat mercury-tainted fish, the health risks are
    serious, especially for unborn infants and very young children whose
    neurological systems are developing.

          A recent study by the Centers for Disease Control
    Prevention estimates that 8 percent of women of child-bearing years in
    the U.S. have unsafe levels of mercury that put their children at risk
    for developmental delays, neurological damage and other health
    problems.
          As many as 300,000 children are born in the United States
    each year with a heightened risk for health effects related to mercury
    exposure.

        As mercury contamination becomes a more pressing public health
    issue, businesses that support the recreational fishing industries
    stand to lose. The sport fishing industry alone generates more than
    $100 billion per year in revenues. This figure does not even begin to
    calculate the risk of mercury contamination to American businesses that
    depend on a robust market for fish sold in the grocery stores or at
    restaurants all across the Nation, nor does this number begin to value
    the loss of fish as a source of food for those who rely on it for their
    families or their way of life.
        After years of research, EPA concluded in 2001 that it was
    necessary and appropriate to set mercury standards under Section 112 of
    the Clean Air Act for power plants, the largest industrial source, and
    a source which is currently unregulated. These standards, which are due
    to be proposed this year, will be based on technologies that can remove
    as much as 90 percent of the mercury in coal from power plant
    smokestacks before it is released into the air, bringing the national
    power plant mercury load down to roughly five tons per year by 2008.
    This level of protection is not only possible but absolutely warranted
    by the severity of the health concerns and the level of the economic
    threat.
        It is therefore alarming that the President's pollution plan
    eliminates these standards entirely. Instead, the President proposed to
    impose a national cap on mercury emissions. However, that cap would
    allow power plants to emit 26 tons of mercury until 2018, after which
    time they could continue to emit 15 tons of mercury each year. Even at
    this late date, the mercury levels allowed by the President's plan are
    three times higher than levels that would result from vigorous
    enforcement of current law.
        The President's plan weakens mercury protections in several other
    important ways:

          Under current law, coal-fired power plants would have
    stringent emission limits written into a permit. The President's bill
    would repeal source-by-source permitting, allowing polluters to
    ``trade'' mercury. It also would likely result in mercury emissions
    increasing at specific power plants, according to EPA.
          Under current law, EPA is required to impose stricter
    standards if risks to public health remain. The President's bill
    removes that public health safeguard.
          Under current law, new sources of mercury are required to
    meet stringent mercury emission limits. Under President's bill,
    controls would be imposed on new power plants only if ``economically
    and technologically feasible'' for the plants to comply.

        Please take these concerns into consideration as you prepare to
    legislate on power plant emissions policy. We strongly urge you to
    reject any policy that weakens current law for any power plant
    pollutant and instead insist upon building on the strong foundation of
    the current Clean Air Act to strengthen public health safeguards.
                Sincerely,
                                       al

        Alabama Environmental Council Jayme Hill, Executive Director
            Birmingham, AL
                                       ar

        Eugene Levy, Rabbi Temple Banai Israel
            Little Rock, AR

        Timothy Reeves, Pastor
            First Presbyterian Church, Stuttgart
            Stuttgart, AR

        June Simmons
            All Our Children, Inc. West
            Memphis, AR
                                       ca

        Evan Paul Environment California
            Sacramento, CA

        Hanan Obeidi
            Southern California Public Health Association President

        George Luna Mayor Pro Tem
            City of Atascadero

        Carolyn Jackson
            Board Member, Park, Recreation, and Community Services Board
            City of Burbank

        Susan R. Ellis
            Environmental Commissioner
            City of Calabasas

        Robert Yalda
            Traffic and Transportation Division Manager
            City of Calabasas

        George Chapjian Mayor
            City of Duarte

        Connie Boardman, 8Mayor
            City of Huntington Beach

        Bonnie Lowenthal Councilmember
            City of Long Beach

        Dan Baker Councilmember
            City of Long Beach

        Christine Mulholland Vice-mayor
            City of San Luis Obispo

        Kenneth E. Schwartz, FAIA Councilman
            City of San Luis Obispo

        Kevin McKeown Mayor pro tem
            City of Santa Monica

        Michael Feinstein Councilmember
            City of Santa Monica

        Philip Gatch
            Director
            Community Development Agency
            City of Thousand Oaks

        Ben Wong Councilmember
            City of West Covina
                                       co
        Chris Cooper, Owner
            Pearl Street Software 1630A 30th St. 106
            Boulder, CO 80301

        Mark Rogers, Owner
            Conservation Consulting 433 Chestnut Way
            Broomfield, CO 80020

        Heidi Cies, Owner
            Heidi Cies Graphic Design 5440 Conley Way
            Denver, CO 80222

        Mark Stamper, Owner M
            ark Stamper Construction
            13284 W. 65th Drive
            Arvada, CO 80004.

        Ann S. Egan, Owner
            Awnings by Annie
            P.O. Box 2103
            Eagle, CO 81631

        William W. Gray, Owner
            Brush Creek Caretaking and Housesitting
            P.O. Box 2103
            Eagle, CO 81631

        Christopher N. Tennis
            Sanchez Tennis & Associates, LLC
            470 Fountaintree Lane Boulder,
            Colorado 80304

        Matthew Lancaster, ASMP
            Remarkable Earth Photography
            2855 Ash Street
            Denver, Colorado 80207

        Bill Clymer President
            CFV!
            P.O. 142
            Victor CO, 80860

        Robin Hubbard
            Environment Colorado Field Director
            Denver, CO

        Huron Bait and Tackle 866
            Washington St
            Thornton, Co. 80229

        Intermountain Communication Services, Inc.
            Dave Moore, Owner
            1416 Grand Ave.
            Glenwood Springs, CO 81601

        Ted Pascoe
            Physicians for Social Responsibility,
            Colorado Chapter 1738 Wynkoop #1
            Denver, CO 80202

        Amanda Champany, Community Organizer
            Colorado People's Environmental and Economic Network
            2332 E. 46th Ave
            Denver, CO 80206

        A-1 Scuba and Travel Center
            1800 W. Oxford Ave
            Englewood, CO 80110

        George Ewing, Manager
            Great Outdoor Clothing Company
            14500 W. Colfax Ave, #514
            Lakewood, CO 80401

        Mike Gilbert, Manager
            303 Boards
            14500 W. Colfax Ave 371
            Lakewood, CO 80401
                                   sportsfan

        Scott Meyer, Manager
            14500 W. Colfax Ave
            Lakewood, CO 80401

        Carlos Santana Jr., Manager
            Just Sports USA
            14500 W. Colfax Ave #329
            Lakewood, CO 80401

        Mike Whitney, Manager
            The Athlete's Foot
            14500 W. Colfax Ave 407
            Lakewood, CO 80401

        Amanda Champany
            The Colorado People's Environmental and Economic Network
            2332 E 46th Ave
            Denver CO 80206

        Ted Pascoe
            Physicians for Social Responsibility-Colorado 1738 Wynkoop 1
            Denver, CO 20202
                                       ct

        Susanne Brazauskas
            Collaborative Center for Justice
            40 Clifford Street
            Hartford, CT 06114-1717

        Kelly Benkert
            Connecticut Public Interest Research Group
            Hartford, CT
                                       de

        Michael E. Riska Executive Director
            Delaware Nature Society
            Hockessin, DE
                                       fl

        Ronald Saff M.D.
            Allergy & Asthma Diagnostic Treatment Center
            2300 Centerville Rd.
            Tallahassee, FL. 32308

        Doreen Archer, Co-President
            League of Women Voters of Space Coast
            1265 St. George Rd.
            Merritt Island, FL 32952

        Mark Ferrulo
            Florida Public Interest Research Group
            Tallahassee, FL

        Harley Gutin Attorney at Law
            5190 North U.S. 1
            Cocoa, FL 32927

        Dr. D.K. Cinquemani, Ph.D., Chair
            Safe Earth Alliance 7100 Ulmerton Rd. 174
            Largo, FL 33771

        Southern Alliance for Clean Energy
            Ulla Reeves, Regional Air Director
            Pensacola, FL

        National Environmental Trust
            Tom Sadler
            Florida Representative
            Miramar, FL

        Legal Environmental Assistance Foundation
            Cynthia Valencic
            Vice President
            Tallahassee, FL

        Florida Consumer Action Network
            Bill Newton
            Executive Director
            Tampa, FL

        Southeastern Fisheries Association
            Bob Jones
            Executive Director
            Tallahassee, FL

        Florida Wildlife Federation
            Manley Fuller President
            Tallahassee, FL

        Allen Broussard Conservancy
            Dr. Wm. J. or Margaret Broussard
            3660 N. Riverside Drive
            Indialantic, FL 32903

        Friends of the Scrub
            Contact: Edwina R. Davis 430 Bahama Dr.
            Indialantic, FL 32903

        American Birding Association
            Dr. Wm. J. or Margaret Broussard, 321-777-0839
            St Cloud, FL
                                       ga
            Benjamin E. Mays Center
            8307 Creek Street Jonesboro, GA 30236
            Felicia Davis, executive director

        Georgia Kids Against Pollution Hunter's Bay Activity Center
            225 Johnson Road
            Forest Park, GA 30297
            John Taylor (Director)

        Jennifer Giegerich
            Georgia Public Interest Research Group
            Atlanta, GA

        Physicians for Social Responsibility/Atlanta
            Ed Arnold,
            Executive Director
            Atlanta, GA
                                       il

        American Friends Service Committee
            Chicago, IL

        Beverly Area Planning Association
            Chicago, IL

        Bolingbrook Earth Watch
            Bolingbrook, IL

        Chicago Recycling Coalition
            Chicago, IL

        Citizen Action/Illinois
            Chicago, IL

        Citizen Advocacy Center
            Elmhurst, IL

        Coalition for Consumer Rights
            Chicago, IL

        Community Action Group
            Chicago, IL

        Community Renewal Society
            Chicago, IL

        Crossroads Christian Youth Center
            Big Rock, IL

        Delta Institute
            Chicago, IL

        Human Action Community Organization
            Harvey, IL

        Illinois Audubon Society
            Danville, IL

        Illinois Center for Citizen Involvement
            Champaign/Urbana, IL

        Illinois Citizen Action
            Libertyville, IL

        Illinois Public Interest Research Group (Illinois PIRG)
            Chicago, IL

        Illinois Student Environmental Network
            Champaign/Urbana, IL

        Jensen Environmental Management
            Glen Ellyn, IL

        Lake County Conservation Alliance
            Grayslake, IL

        League of Women Voters of Illinois
            Chicago, IL

        Lyons Incineration Network
            Lyons, IL

        MCS: Health & Environment
            Evanston, IL

        Metro Seniors in Action
            Chicago, IL

        National Council of Jewish Women

        Prairie Sun Consultants
            Naperville, IL

        Protestants for the Common Good
            Chicago, IL

        Save the Prairie Society
            Westchester, IL

        Sheil Center
            Chicago, IL

        South Austin Coalition
            Chicago, IL

        South Cook County Environmental Action Coalition
            Blue Island, IL

        South Suburban Citizens Opposed to Polluting Our Environment
            Chicago Heights, IL
                                       in

        Valley Watch, Inc.
            John Blair, President
            Evansville, IN 47713

        Save the Dunes Council
            Michigan City, IN

        South Bend-Elkhart Audubon Society
            South Bend, IN

        Knob and Valley Audubon Society
            New Albany, IN
                                       la

        Susan Spicer Owner/Chef
            Bayona Restaurant
            New Orleans, LA

        Patrick Singley, Owner
            Gautreau's Restaurant
            New Orleans, LA

        John Harris, Owner/Chef
            Lilette Restaurant
            New Orleans, LA

        Gulf Restoration Network
            Cynthia Sarthou, Executive Director
            New Orleans, LA

        Citizens for a Clean Environment
            Bill Herke, Ph.D.
            Board Member and AFS Certified Fisheries Scientist

        Rene Bajeux, Owner/Chef

        Bingo Starr, Chef
            Rene Bistrot Restaurant
            New Orleans, LA

        Margaritaville Cafe
            New Orleans, LA

        The Alliance for Affordable Energy
            Micah Walker, Program Director
            New Orleans, LA

        Informed Choices
            Nancy Hirschfeld, President
            Slidell, LA

        Citizens Against Hazardous Waste Clarence Chandler
            DeQuincy, LA

        Louisiana Environmental Action Network (LEAN)
            Marylee Orr, Executive Director
            Baton Rouge, LA
                                       me
            Natural Resources Council of Maine
            Sue Jones, Air and Energy Project Director
            Augusta, ME
                                       ma
            Clean Water Action/Fund
            Brian Carlson Energy/Climate Organizer
            Boston MA 02108

        Frank Gorke
            Massachusetts Public Interest Research Group
            Boston, MA
                                       mi
            American Lung Association of MI 25900
            Greenfield, Suite 401
            Oak Park, MI 48237

        Michigan Environmental Council 119
            Pere Marquette Drive, Suite 2A
            Lansing, MI 48912

        National Environmental Trust
            Vicki Levengood
            Lansing, MI

        ACCESS
            2651 Saulino Court
            Dearborn, MI 48120

        Sierra Club
            3423 Charing Cross Road
            Ann Arbor, MI 48108

        Ecology Center
            117 N. Division St.
            Ann Arbor, MI 48104

        MI Council of the Environment and Jewish Life
            Bloomfield Hills, MI

        West Michigan Environmental Action Council
            1514 Wealthy St., SE, Suite 280
            Grand Rapids, MI 49506

        East Michigan Environmental Action Council
            21220 West 14 Mile Road
            Bloomfield Hills, MI 48301

        League of Conservation Voters
            Ann Arbor, MI

        League of Women Voters of Michigan
            200 Museum Drive, Suite 104
            Lansing, MI 48933-1997

        Grey Panthers
            Huron Valley
            Arthur Parris
            2115 Nature Cove Court, Apt. 106
            Ann Arbor, MI 48104

        SWDEV
            Detroit, MI 48209

        Catholic Archdioces
            305 Michigan Ave.
            Detroit, MI 48226-2605

        National Wildlife Federation
            Great Lakes Field Office
            213 W. Liberty, Suite 200
            Ann Arbor, MI 48104-1398

        Brian Imus
            PIRGIM
            Ann Arbor, MI
                                       mo

        Learning Disability Association of Missouri
            Springfield, MO

        Citizens for Missouri's Children
            St. Louis, MO

        Shannon Baker
            Missouri PIRG
            St. Louis, MO
                                       mn
            Clean Water Action Alliance of MN
            Patience Caso, Water Program Coordinator
            Minneapolis, MN

        Rochester's Energy Future Coalition
            Gael Entrikin
            Rochester MN

        Mankato Area Environmentalists
            Sister Gladys Schmitz, SSND
            Mankato, MN

        Izaak Walton League of America, Minnesota Division
            Steve McNaughton, President
            St. Paul, MN

        Friends of the Boundary Waters Wilderness
            Sean Wherley
            Policy and Education Coordinator
            Minneapolis, MN

        St. Croix River Association
            Richard Meierotto Board of Directors
            Afton, MN

        Mississippi Corridor Neighborhood Coalition
            Amy Luesebrink and Randy Kouri, Co-Presidents
            Minneapolis, MN

        St. Croix Valley Interstate Group, Sierra Club
            Kathleen Vollmer, Executive Committee Member
            Stillwater, MN

        Environmental Association for Great Lakes Education (EAGLE)
            Craig Minowa, Technical Director
            Duluth, MN
                                       nc
            Appalachian Voices
            Scott Gollwitzer, Staff Attorney/Clean Air Campaign Coordinator
            Asheville, NC

        North Carolina Public Interest Research Group
            Elizabeth Ouzts
            Chapel Hill, NC
                                       nj
            New Jersey Environmental Lobby
            Marie A. Curtis
            Executive Director Trenton, NJ

        New Jersey Public Interest Research Group
            Dena Motolla
            Trenton, NJ
                                       ny
            Environmental Advocates of New York
            Val Washington
            Executive Director
            Albany, NY
                                       oh
            Ohio Environmental Council
            Kurt Waltzer
            Clean Air Program Coordinator
            Columbus, OH

        Ohio Public Interest Research Group
            Amy Simpson
            Cleveland, OH
                                       pa
            Joseph Otis Minott Executive Director
            Clean Air Council
            Philadelphia, PA

        PennEnvironment
            David Masur
            Philadelphia, PA
                                       ri
            Childhood Lead Action Project
            Roberta Hazen Aaronsen

        Innovative Product Systems
            Len Pichea, President

        A Wish Come True
            Lee Green

        Rhode Island Public Interest Research Group
            Kate Strouse-Canada

        Clean Water Action
            Sheila Dormody, RI Director
                                       sc
            SC Wildlife Federation
            2711 Middleburg Drive, Suite 104
            Columbia, SC 29204

        SC Environmental Watch
            Rainie Jueschke
            Columbia, SC 29202

        State Rep. Joe Neal
            309B Blatt Bldg.,
            Columbia, SC 29211

        SC Department of Natural Resources
            Charlie Moore
            Rembert C. Dennis Building 1000 Assembly Street
            Columbia, SC 29201

        SC Nurses Association
            1821 Gadsden Street
            Columbia, SC 29201
                                       tn
            Tennessee Environmental Council
            Will Callaway, Executive Director
            Nashville, TN

        Southern Alliance for Clean Energy
            Stephen Smith, Executive Director
            Knoxville, Tennessee
                                       tx
            Friends of the Sabine
            Richard LeTourneau, Chairman
            Longview, Texas

        Texas Environmental Democrats
            Darby Riley, President
            San Antonio, Texas

        Galveston--Houston Association for Smog Prevention (GHASP)
            John D. Wilson, Executive Director
            Houston, TX

        Texas Black Bass Unlimited
            Ed Parten, President

        Texas Association of Bass Clubs
            SMART (Sensible Management of Aquatic Resources)

        John Spicer
            Long Supply Company

        April Plaza Marina and Hotel
            Ron Werner, Owner

        Fly Angler's Edge
            Kenny Murph, Manager

        Honey Hole Fishing Magazine
            Jerry and Debra Dean, Owners
                                       ut
            American Lung Association of Utah
            1930 South 1100
            East Salt Lake City, UT 84106-2317

        American Cancer Society
            941 E. 3300 S
            Salt Lake City, UT 84106 (801)483-1500

        Wasatch Clean Air Coalition
            Salt Lake City, UT

        Dr. Richard E. Kanner
            Director of the Pulmonary Function Lab at the University of
    Utah; former member and Chairman of the Utah Department of
    Environmental Quality's Air Quality Board

        J.E.D.I. WOMEN
            352 South Denver St. (440E) Suite 260
            Salt Lake City, Utah 84111

        Save our Canyons
            68 South Main Street, 4th floor
            Salt Lake City, UT 84101

        Utah River Keepers

        Salt Lake City Council Member Nancy Saxton
            451 South State Street
            Salt Lake City, Utah 84111

        Utah State Representative Mark Litvack
            181 East Edith Avenue
            Salt Lake City, Utah 84111

        Professor John Veranth
            Research Assistant Professor of Pharmacology and Toxicology
            University of Utah Health Sciences Center 50 North Medical
    Drive
            Salt Lake City, Utah 84132

        Utah State Representative Jackie Biskupski
            753 East Roosevelt Avenue
            Salt Lake City, Utah 84105

        Wayne Samuelson, M.D.
            University of Utah School of Medicine 308 Park Building
            Salt Lake City, Utah 84112

        Great Salt Lake Audubon
            P.O. Box 520867,
            Salt Lake City, Utah 84152-0867

        Families Against Incinerator Risk
            165 South Main Street
            Salt Lake City, UT 84111

        HEAL UTAH
            68 S Main St, Suite 400
            Salt Lake City, UT 84101
                                       wa
            Washington Toxics Coalition
            Seattle, WA

        Northwest Energy Coalition
            Seattle, WA

        Washington Physicians for Social Responsibility Environment and
    Health Committee,
            Seattle, WA

        Washington Association of Churches
            Seattle, WA

        RE Sources
            Bellingham, WA

        Coalition For Environmentally Safe Schools
            Olympia, WA

        Lutheran Public Policy Office
            Tacoma, WA

        Seattle Audubon Society
            Seattle, WA

        Dr. Don Johnson
        Okanogan County PUD Commissioner
            Okanogan, WA

        Transportation Choices Coalition, Spokane Chapter
            Spokane, WA

        NW Sustainable Energy for Economic Development
        Seattle, WA
                                       wi
            Trout Unlimited--Fox Valley Chapter Tom Deer, President
            1271 Maple St.
            Neenah, WI 54956

        Trout Unlimited--Oconto River Chapter
            Dave Brunner
            5473 Cardinal Rd.
            Gillett, WI 54124

        Wisconsin Conference of the United Methodist Church
            Reverend Dave Steffenson, Ph.D., Eco-Justice Coordinator,
            Board of Church & Society PO Box 21
            Columbus, WI 53925

        Lutheran Office for Public Policy
            Reverend Sue Moline-Larson
            322 E. Washington Avenue
            Madison, WI 53703

        Family Farm Defenders
            John Peck, Executive Director
            PO Box 1772
            Madison, WI 53701

        Lake Superior Greens
            Jan Conley
            2406 Hughitt
            Superior, WI 54880

        River Alliance of Wisconsin
            Diana Toledo, Acting Director
            306 E. Wilson Street
            Madison, WI 53703

        Citizens Utility Board
            Steve Hinicker, Director
            16 N. Carroll Street
            Madison, WI 53703

        Melissa K. Scanlan
            Executive Director
            Midwest Environmental Advocates 702 East Johnson Street
            Madison, Wisconsin 53703

        Laura Olah
            Executive Director
            Citizens for Safe Water Around Badger
        E12629 Weigands Bay S
            Merrimac, WI 53561

        Bob Olsgard
            Lake Superior Waterkeeper
            The Lake Superior Alliance
            Spooner, WI
        Senator Jeffords. I would also like to place into the
    record a letter from a coalition of public health and
    environmental organizations stating their support of the
    current Clean Air Act.
        Senator Voinovich. Without objection.
        [The information referred to follows:]
                            Americans for Clean Air
                                                           May 7, 2003.
    The Honorable James Inhofe, Chair,
    Committee on Environment and Public Works
    U.S. Senate
    Washington, DC 20510

    The Honorable Billy Tauzin, Chair,
    Committee on Energy and Commerce
    U.S. House of Representatives
    Washington, DC 20515
    Dear Chairman Inhofe and Chairman Tauzin: For over three decades, the
    Clean Air Act has worked to improve public health and protect the
    environment. We, the undersigned health, senior's, religious, labor,
    civil rights, children's, parent's, women's, consumer and environmental
    organizations strongly support the Clean Air Act and vigorously oppose
    legislation that will weaken or delay the implementation of the law.
        The Clean Air Act is working. By enforcing the law, air pollution
    levels have dropped at the same time the nation's economy has grown
    dramatically. The Clean Air Act amendments that you have introduced at
    the request of the administration would disrupt this progress, harm
    public health and worsen global warming. If the Clean Air Act is
    changed, it should be strengthened, not weakened.
        Today, the Clean Air Act is designed to protect the health of all
    Americans. Pregnant women, children, people with heart disease and lung
    diseases (such as asthma and emphysema), seniors and other populations
    at risk for diseases like cancer must be protected from the harmful
    effects of poisonous mercury in our waters, toxic air pollution, smog
    and soot. America's National Parks and other unique landscapes must be
    protected from air pollution, haze and irreversible damage to our
    environment.
        The Clean Air Act sets strong standards to cut pollution from power
    plants and other industrial sources to meet the health-based air
    quality standards for soot and smog. Power plants are required to
    sharply reduce their sulfur and nitrogen emissions by the end of this
    decade. Current law also requires power plants to install state-of-the-
    art technologies that will deeply cut mercury contamination by 2008.
        The Bush Administration's air pollution proposal weakens the Clean
    Air Act in several important ways. The bill delays deadlines to meet
    the health standards and relaxes pollution reduction requirements for
    power plants and other major pollution sources. The proposal repeals
    the requirement for power plants to install state-of-the-art pollution
    controls to reduce toxic mercury emissions. Critical states' authority
    to set strong clean-up standards is repealed. The plan also makes
    global warming worse by allowing carbon pollution to increase.
        The current Clean Air Act provides critical tools that the states
    and the Environmental Protection Agency can use to achieve clean air.
    Please do not weaken industry's responsibility to clean up power plants
    and other smokestacks. Do not postpone the requirements to meet health-
    based standards. Do not diminish the rights of downwind states to
    protect themselves from pollution produced outside their borders.
        All Americans have a right to breathe clean, healthful air. That is
    the promise of the landmark Clean Air Act. This promise should never be
    broken.
                Sincerely,
    Alpha-1 Foundation.

    American Association of People with Disabilities.

    American Cancer Society.

    American Heart Association.

    American Lung Association.

    American Public Health Association.

    American Thoracic Society.

    Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America.

    Breakthrough Technologies Institute.

    Center for International Environmental Law.

    Central Conference of American Rabbis.

    Children's Environmental Health Network.

    Citizens Coal Council.

    Citizens for a Better Environment.

    Clean Air Task Force.

    Clean Air Trust Education Fund.

    Clean Water Action.

    Clear The Air.

    Climate Solutions.

    Coalition on the Environment and Jewish Life (COEJL).

    Consumer Action.

    Defenders of Wildlife.

    Environmental Defense.

    Environmental Defense Center.

    Environmental Integrity Project.

    Friends Committee on National Legislation.

    Friends of the Earth.

    Green House Network Greenpeace.

    Healthy Schools Network.

    International Primate Protection League.

    Kids Against Pollution.

    League of Conservation Voters.

    League of United Latin American Citizens.

    League of Women Voters of the United States.

    National Adult Day Services Association.

    National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP).

    National Association of the County and City Health Officials.

    National Audubon Society.

    National Consumers League.

    National Council on the Aging.

    National Environmental Trust.

    National Parks Conservation Association.

    National Wildlife Federation.

    Natural Resources Defense Council.

    OMB Watch.

    Our Children's Earth Foundation.

    The Ocean Conservancy.

    Physicians for Social Responsibility.

    Presbyterian Church (USA) Washington Office.

    Public Citizen.

    Public Employers for Environmental Responsibility.

    Religious Action Forum.

    Sierra Club.

    Trust for America's Health.

    Union of American Hebrew Congregations.

    Union of Concerned Scientists.

    United Church of Christ Justice and Witness Ministries.

    United Methodist Church General Board of Church and Society.

    United Steelworkers of America.

    U.S. Environmental Watch.

    U.S. Public Interest Research Group.

    Wildlands CPR.

    Women's Environment and Development Organization.

    Women's International League for Peace and Freedom.

    Woman's National Democratic Club.

    Working Assets.

    20/20 Vision.
        Senator Jeffords. Finally, most projections indicate that
    new electricity generation will come largely from natural gas
    for mainly economic reasons. Most of that generation will be
    for peaking power and those natural gas facilities that are new
    baseload will be replacing older, inefficient natural gas-fired
    plants and not replacing coal.
        According to the testimony of today's witnesses and the
    experts in the natural gas industry, there will be plenty of
    natural gas to meet the projected growth of demand for
    electricity but if coal wants to expand its market share beyond
    the current 55 percent it now enjoys and really grow, then the
    test is simple, produce power that meets public health and
    environmental needs of America today and into the future.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Senator Jeffords.
        Mr. McSlarrow, we apologize for holding you up this
    morning. We had a very important vote in the U.S. Senate that I
    was particularly interested in, the legislation to open up NATO
    to seven new nations. It is a historic day for those nations
    and for our country and the future of NATO organizations. I
    apologize for not getting started on time.
        We are very happy to have you here today and look forward
    to your testimony.

     STATEMENT OF HON. KYLE E. MC SLARROW, DEPUTY SECRETARY, U.S.
                          DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

        Mr. McSlarrow. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        With your permission, I would like to briefly summarize my
    testimony and submit it in full for the record.
        I am pleased to appear before you today to discuss the
    Administration's National Energy Policy and to discuss why we
    think Clear Skies is a critical component as you said of the
    President's strategy to confront both our energy and
    environmental challenges. We are pleased the Senate is now
    considering a comprehensive energy bill and commend Chairman
    Domenici and the members of his committee for acting so
    swiftly. We commend you, Mr. Chairman and this committee for
    moving aggressively to consider the Clear Skies legislation.
        The Nation's demand for electricity is projected to grow
    significantly over the next 22-25 years. Between now and 2025,
    the United States will likely have to add between 446 and 665
    gigawatts of new generating capacity to meet growing demand.
    This is equivalent to adding the entire power generation sector
    in Germany and Japan combined to the U.S. power grid.
    Concurrently, with this expansion of the Nation's power fleet,
    power generators will also be called upon to make new
    investments in pollution control technologies to meet
    tightening environmental standards.
        Over the past 25 years, America's electricity utility
    industry has invested billions of dollars in advance
    technologies to improve the quality of our air. In terms of
    long term energy trends, we long ago ceased to fully provide
    for our petroleum needs domestically and though most of our
    natural gas demand can be met with North American production,
    the trend here is also toward a greater share of imported
    natural gas. Coal, our most abundant energy resource, is
    actually projected to reduce its percentage share of
    electricity generation.
        President Bush recognized that to prevent these problems
    from becoming a permanent feature of American life, we needed a
    long term plan. President Bush's National Energy Policy
    released in May 2001 reflected a few fundamental principles.
    First, we need to maintain a diversity of fuels from multiple
    sources. Second, we should seek opportunities for increased
    investment trade, exploration and development which are
    increasing every year far beyond the traditional markets of the
    last 50 years. Third, we should focus research and development
    on initiatives that seek long term solutions to our energy
    challenges as we have done with energy efficiency, renewable
    energy, hydrogen, fusion and nuclear energy as well as the
    recently announced zero-emission FutureGen coal project.
        The National Energy Policy also highlighted the growing
    need for attention to the Nation's electricity markets and
    infrastructure. We strongly believe that Clear Skies is a key
    component to meet that goal as is a comprehensive energy bill
    that includes a sound electricity title to modernize our
    wholesale electricity markets. A well functioning, wholesale
    market brings its own rewards. As confidence is gained that the
    system is reliable and capable of coping with the high demand
    for electricity, there will increasingly be less need for
    restrictive and prescriptive regulation. That is the point when
    much needed investment is likely to be attracted--investment in
    new technologies and improved generation and transmission
    facilities that produces additional energy and environmental
    benefits.
        When the opposite is true, when uncertainty reins, when
    reliability is questioned, when prices seem detached from
    market forces, investment vanishes. The present uncertainty in
    the wholesale electricity market is not simply affected by
    policy choices that center on transmission assets and market
    designs. The uncertainty extends to the generation of
    electricity itself and that is why it is so important to
    provide greater regulatory certainty about the kinds of
    investment choices the generating industry will have to make
    over the next two decades. We believe the Clear Skies proposal
    does just that.
        It is difficult to quantify what the cost to our energy
    impacts will be if multi-pollutant legislation is not enacted.
    The Energy Information Administration from which most of our
    numbers are drawn, the EIA baseline, includes all future
    legislation and regulations that have been specified or enacted
    but does not include regulations not yet promulgated.
    Therefore, we know in the absence of this legislation before
    the committee, mercury regulations will be promulgated by
    December of next year but we do not know what those regulations
    will be. We can anticipate that additional regulations on
    SO2 and NOx will be required but we do not know what
    those regulations will be either. We can anticipate additional
    regulations to reduce regional haze, but again, we don't know
    what they will be.
        What we should be concerned with is this. Uncertainty,
    delay and litigation which are the chief hallmarks of the
    current process under the Clean Air Act are not likely to
    produce greater environmental benefits but instead are likely
    to lead to more costly solutions and risk affecting the energy
    fuel mix in ways that are unwarranted and unforeseen. Although
    we have not contrasted Clear Skies to this unknown regulatory
    future, we have compared it to a future predicated on current
    control programs.
        Under Clear Skies natural gas consumption, which is
    currently projected to increase to about 35 trillion cubic feet
    in 2025 increases to 36 trillion cubic feet, 1 tcf additional.
    However, we do not project that a significant change in natural
    gas supply is needed due to the implementation of Clear Skies.
    Wellhead natural gas prices follow the baseline pattern after
    decreasing from the unusually high prices that occurred in
    2001.
        Clear Skies helps maintain coal as an important fuel
    source, thereby avoiding excessive pressure on natural gas
    prices. In our baseline, coal consumption would increase about
    38 percent through 2025. Under Clear Skies, it increases to a
    lesser extent but still an increase of 26 percent. EIA also
    projects electricity prices will lower throughout the
    projection period for both the baseline scenario and under
    Clear Skies. The effect of emission reductions is roughly a 0.3
    cents per kilowatt hour price increase.
        In closing, one of the concerns we have is the ever
    increasing reliance on natural gas. Because our marginal supply
    of natural gas will increasingly come imported liquefied
    natural gas, we should be concerned that we not place too much
    stress on the natural gas supply by forcing a level of fuel
    switching from coal to gas that leads to higher volatility and
    higher prices. Natural gas supply as a low cost, reliable
    source of electricity is not automatic. One only has to witness
    the winters of 2000, 2001 and the one we just experienced to
    see the point. It is therefore critically important that we
    maintain a balanced, diversity of fuels to provide low cost and
    abundant electricity. The key to this is that we not assume
    that all policy objectives can be achieved simply by unlimited
    reliance on natural gas.
        Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. Again, we want to thank you for being
    here this morning.
        I understand the Natural Petroleum Council is currently
    working on a natural gas report that was requested by Secretary
    Abraham last year. This report follows a similar report issued
    by the NPC in 1999 which I will, without objection, enter into
    the record.
        [The document is printed in the appendix to this hearing
    record:]
        Senator Voinovich. Can you give us any idea of the scope of
    that report and when it is going to be released?
        Mr. McSlarrow. I believe the target for release is
    September. The scope of the report is much the same as the 1999
    report which is a comprehensive look at both the supply and the
    demand side of the natural gas equation, as well as a look at
    technologies for exploration and production.
        The reason it was asked for is because as you know there is
    a significant debate going on right now in the natural gas
    industry about the future of supply and demand in this country.
    There are increasing concerns about whether or not and to what
    extent we are going to meet our needs with domestic or at a
    minimum, North American production. I can't tell you at this
    point obviously the conclusions of that report will be. I have
    been briefed on interim analyses but I would say this. Nothing
    I have seen right now leads me to any other conclusion than
    that we have a looming problem in natural gas supply.
        Senator Voinovich. What does the Administration believe are
    the potential effects on our manufacturing sector of any policy
    or legislation that will result in massive fuel switching from
    coal to natural gas? Have you calculated what impact that would
    have on the economy of this country?
        Mr. McSlarrow. I am unaware.
        Senator Voinovich. For that matter, what is already
    happening?
        Mr. McSlarrow. I am unaware of a calculation but I will go
    back and check and see if EIA has something and something for
    you for the record. There is no question that those industries
    with huge variable fuel costs, particularly with what has
    happened in natural gas, experience a huge crunch. If we have
    quantified it, I will get that to you.
        Senator Voinovich. It is interesting because last week I
    had the man who is in charge of Bayer in the United States,
    with 22,000 employees in the U.S., who fundamentally said the
    cost of natural gas here was so much higher than it is in
    Europe and frankly, he was giving consideration to moving some
    of his operations back to Europe because of the high cost of
    natural gas. They are competing with these products in the
    global marketplace.
        Who would have information on that type of thing, the
    Department of Commerce or who?
        Mr. McSlarrow. It is possible the Department of Commerce
    and also it is possible that our Energy Information
    Administration would have that as well as manufacturing groups
    themselves. We will do some research and get back to you.
        Senator Voinovich. I would like to find out if there is
    anybody monitoring this at all in the Federal Government and we
    can get some statistical information.
        Mr. McSlarrow. There is usually a statistic for everything
    in the government, so I am sure it is there.
        Senator Voinovich. an article in the Akron Beacon Journal
    last Sunday, which I will without objection enter into the
    record.
        [The information referred to follows:]
                  [From the Akron Beacon Journal, May 4, 2003]

                          Natural Gas Outlook: Costly
                               (By Jim Mackinnon)

        This past long, cold winter, if followed with a long, hot summer,
    may leave Northeast Ohio natural gas users more under the weather than
    usual.
        Natural gas supplies, already sharply depleted by a frigid winter
    that drove up heating usage, will come under even more pressure if
    prolonged hot weather this summer causes natural gas-powered
    ``peaking'' electric plants to fire up more than usual to meet air-
    conditioning demand. Those plants use a lot of natural gas and may be
    needed for sustained periods just when gas companies want to fill their
    underground storage systems ahead of next winter.
        And it looks like Mother Nature may not provide much help. The
    latest National Weather Service long-range outlook says it is likely
    much of the Nation will have above-normal temperatures this summer.
        The result may be higher-than typical prices for natural gas users,
    though producers and sellers such as Dominion East Ohio say we won't
    have to worry about running out of the fuel.
        ``This past winter is going to have a lot of repercussions,'' said
    Jeff Murphy, director of pricing and regulatory affairs for Dominion
    East Ohio. ``All things considered, we're seeing a lot of upward
    pressure on prices.''
        Basically, that means tight supply, low production and increasing
    demand.
        And while that may be good for natural gas producers, it's not for
    those who buy gas.
        The latest Federal information shows 741 billion cubic feet of
    natural gas in underground storage nationally as of April 24--well
    below the more than 1.6 trillion cubic feet stored in the same period a
    year ago. The 5-year average of natural gas storage for this time of
    year is about 1.3 trillion cubic feet, according to the Energy
    Information Administration.
        To get some idea of how weather can play havoc with natural gas
    supplies as well as household heating bills, look at Dominion East Ohio
    customers.
        They burned a lot more gas on average this past winter than during
    the previous year, Dominion East Ohio spokesman Neil Durbin said.
        The average Northeast Ohio household from December 2001 through
    February 2002 burned 42.3 thousand cubic feet of gas, he said. From
    December 2002 through February this year, that average household burned
    63.5 thousand cubic feet of gas, he said.
        The end result: Way less natural gas left in underground storage by
    the time spring arrived.
        ``We're going to have to scramble to put gas in the ground. That
    will keep gas prices high,'' said Chuck Faber, director of corporate
    development for Twinsburg-based natural gas and oil explorer North
    Coast Energy Inc. The natural gas industry will want to have about
    three trillion cubic feet of gas stored in time for next winter to be
    comfortable, he said.
        ``We could see $7 (wholesale natural) gas in the summertime,''
    Faber said. The wholesale price now is about $5 per thousand cubic
    feet. Residential customers pay more--there are taxes, and utilities
    tack on additional charges for transporting and delivering the gas to
    households, which is where they make their profit.
        There could be price spikes, too, if hurricanes temporarily shut
    down natural gas production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, Faber
    said.
        Gas producers have been increasing well drilling, but North Coast
    and other companies remain reluctant to ramp up production
    dramatically, Faber said. The cost of drilling a 4,000-to 5,000-foot-
    deep well is between $160,000 to $180,000, while a 10,000-foot well can
    cost between $1.5 million and $2 million, he said.
        In addition, it's been harder for drillers to get financing to put
    in new wells, said FirstEnergy Corp. spokeswoman Kristen Baird. The
    Akron utility produces, buys and sells natural gas for its own gas-
    fired peaking plants as well as for retail customers.
        ``We anticipate pricing will continue to be on the high end,''
    Baird said.
        The Energy Information Administration reports that natural gas
    production in the U.S. fell by 2.6 percent last year, but should
    increase by 1.5 percent this year. Even so, demand is expected to
    increase by 2.7 percent this year compared to last.
        ``The big gas wells are being depleted,'' said Peggy Laramie,
    spokeswoman for the American Gas Association, which represents the
    natural gas utility industry.
        Because of supply and demand imbalances, the association feels that
    natural gas prices are going to fluctuate a lot more than they did in
    the late 1990's, Laramie said. To increase supply, the association and
    its members are lobbying the Federal Government to relax regulations
    and allow them to drill for natural gas in places now off limits to
    them.
        The Federal Government, meanwhile, is looking to ensure that
    companies don't engage in price fixing or other illegal means to boost
    prices and profits.
        It's not all bad news for consumers out there.
        John Tobin of the Colorado-based Energy Literacy Project said North
    America gas supplies are vast. But while the supply is there, getting
    it to customers by drilling and putting it in pipelines is proving more
    difficult, he said.
        Tobin said he thinks competition from lower petroleum prices will
    help moderate natural gas prices. Energy sources have to compete
    against each other, he said.
        But Faber at North Coast Energy said his outlook is that natural
    gas will trade and sell at a premium relative to oil, even though
    traditionally oil has been more expensive than gas. Part of that has to
    do with the increased demand for gas, which burns more cleanly than
    oil, and the ability of oil to be more easily transported, he said.
        Wellhead prices--basically, wholesale prices--are well down from
    their peaks in February and early March.
        Nationally, the wellhead price of natural gas in the 2002-2003
    winter heating season averaged $4.44 per thousand cubic feet, $2.08
    more than the previous winter, according to Federal data.
        But don't expect to see the return of $2 per thousand cubic feet
    wellhead prices, energy analysts and others said. They estimate
    wellhead natural gas will range between $4.50 and $5.50 per thousand
    cubic feet through at least the summer and probably into 2004.
        For huge industrial consumers of natural gas, the higher costs eat
    away at profits.
        Besides its use in heating buildings and making electricity,
    natural gas is a key component for fertilizer makers, polymer companies
    and the steel industry.
        The Timken Co. burns about 8 billion cubic feet of natural gas a
    year, said Peggy Claytor, senior government affairs specialist for the
    Canton maker of bearings and specialty steel. Claytor, the company's
    former energy purchaser, specializes in energy and environment issues
    for Timken.
        About 92 percent of the gas Timken uses is used to heat treat
    bearings and steel, with the remainder used for such things as heating
    boilers, she said.
        While Timken and other companies can hedge the financial costs of
    gas, they often have to eat the higher energy costs, she said,
        ``You do not have the luxury of shutting down (a plant) because you
    have customer obligations to meet,'' Claytor said.
        The higher prices have been a strong incentive for Timken and other
    companies to become more energy efficient, she said. Timken's changes
    have lowered the its natural gas consumption by 34 percent, she said.
        The recession and slow economic growth have also moderated natural
    gas prices by reducing industrial and business demand, she said.
        ``An economic recovery will put more pressure on prices,'' Claytor
    said. ``In a sense, we are fortunate that our economic recovery has
    been anemic.''
        Senator Voinovich. Highlights the pressures placed on
    natural gas supplies by the frigid winter that we had in Ohio
    and notes that the National Weather Service is predicting that
    much of the Nation will have above normal temperatures this
    summer. If hot weather this summer causes natural gas power
    plants to operate at higher than average levels, what impact
    will that have on our natural gas supplies and prices?
        Mr. McSlarrow. It will have a huge impact. We have a
    problem right now. We are coming out of a season in which we
    had low storage. This is the time when you traditionally build
    storage all the way through the summer to get ready for the
    next winter heating season. The last numbers I saw were that we
    were about 700 billion cubic feet in storage which is about 500
    billion cubic feet below the 5 year average.
        If we have a hot summer and natural gas is consumed in
    greater amounts for the generation of electricity for air
    conditioning and the like, we are going to go into the next
    winter even lower than we did the last. That puts us at risk
    for a lot more higher and volatile prices.
        Senator Voinovich. We have been joined by Senator Carper.
    Senator, would you want to make a statement or ask Mr.
    McSlarrow some questions?
        Senator Carper. Is Senator Jeffords next in line to ask
    questions?
        Senator Jeffords. Yes, but I will defer.
        Senator Carper. Let me defer to you and then I have some
    welcoming comments for Mr. McSlarrow. I have just had an
    exciting train ride from Delaware this morning. I want to calm
    down just a little bit before I say anything.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Jeffords?
        Senator Jeffords. I just have one question. How many coal
    plants does the Administration project are going to switch to
    natural gas due to the environmental regulations over the next
    10 years?
        Mr. McSlarrow. I don't have a number off the top of my
    head. We will get that for the record.
        Senator Jeffords. I would appreciate that because obviously
    this is a very difficult question in the sense of the future of
    this country and our energy costs.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Jeffords, I can say this to you.
    All of the new powerplants in Ohio that have been built, and
    there have been a lot of them, are all fueled by natural gas.
        Senator Carper?

     OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. THOMAS R. CARPER, U.S. SENATOR FROM
                         THE STATE OF DELAWARE

        Senator Carper. I have calmed down.
        Deputy Secretary McSlarrow, how are you doing?
        Mr. McSlarrow. Very well, Senator.
        Senator Carper. Glad you are here and glad you are in your
    position.
        I get to come over and spend some time with your boss this
    afternoon. I am looking forward to that as well. It has to be a
    busy time for you with the energy bill coming to the floor. A
    good deal of what we will discuss there actually has some
    ramifications for what we are covering here as you know.
        I have introduced, along with Senator Chafee and Senator
    Gregg, legislation to attempt to slow the growth of emissions
    of CO2 principally from our utilities in this
    country. I did not have a chance to hear your testimony this
    morning but I am mindful of the concern that some have raised
    and I hear a little here today about if we adopt a fourth
    pollutant, address CO2 in clean air legislation this
    year, we will exacerbate the shift from coal to natural gas.
        Let me say by way of a disclaimer, I know I am the only
    United States Senator who was born in West Virginia and I still
    have a lot of family there and a lot of affection for that
    State and its economy. It is not driven entirely by coal but it
    is still a major part of the economy of my native State. I am
    not interested in doing anything that is going to harm that
    industry or West Virginia, for that matter.
        I just heard the chairman say in Ohio all the new utility
    plants that have come on line of late have been natural gas in
    nature. I think the same is true in Delaware. That has happened
    with a three pollutant bill. It just happened because of
    concern of States and industry to clean up the air. For the
    most part, it is easier and maybe cheaper for them to move
    toward natural gas than coal.
        I want to make a couple of points and I would be interested
    in your thinking on this as well. There is a fair amount of
    uncertainty within the investment community on whether or not
    they ought to invest in utilities that are making major
    investments in coal-fired plants. We have heard testimony about
    the emissions from clean coal technology that are really just
    as good as what you are going to find in natural gas-fired
    plants but there is a reluctance on the part of investors to
    invest in companies or utilities that are going to bring those
    on line because they don't know if we are going to pass a 3-P
    or 4-P bill. They don't know if it is going to be a market
    driven system, will there be caps and trades available, and are
    just uncertain of the nature of what we are going to do
    legislatively and what you will be doing regulatorily. Are we
    going to make any changes in new source review. There is a lot
    of uncertainty.
        One of the reasons why I am interested in a 4-P bill that
    addresses carbon dioxide is I want to provide some certainty. I
    want to provide some certainty to the utilities and I want to
    provide some certainty to the investors as well.
        I have seen information that suggests if our legislation,
    the legislation that Senators Chafee, Gregg and I have
    introduced, were to become law there would be I am told a 3
    percent further shift from coal to natural gas. I don't want to
    even see that.
        That is a round about way of asking this question. Let's
    talk about the willingness of investors to invest in clean coal
    technology and how that willingness might be driven, increased,
    enhanced by some certainty with respect to what we are going to
    be doing on new source review and whether or not we are going
    to be regulating carbon.
        Mr. McSlarrow. There is no question that certainty is in
    some ways at the center of much of the debate and at the center
    of much of the concern, both in terms of those who would invest
    in utilities and in particular kinds of plants and those who
    actually have to operate them and those who have to produce
    fuels.
        My initial point would be we can provide certainty about
    passing Clear Skies, that would provide certainty, but to be
    fair to the question you asked, I think we really do have a
    concern. The numbers I have seen on your bill are a little
    larger in terms of the fuel switching but I also understand you
    just introduced a new version, so it's possible there is a
    difference between last year and now.
        This is about marginal costs. This entire energy debate
    whether natural gas, coal or anything else in terms of what
    drives the cost of fuel in the electricity generation sector
    and the more we switch to natural gas and the more we have that
    effect, and there is no question that any bill that has a
    carbon cap is going to have some effect in a way that 3-P bill
    won't, is going to increasingly place this kind of pressure on
    natural gas at a time when it's already volatile in our view,
    and not very well understood as a driver of all the generation
    costs for all the other fuels.
        There is no question that we have uncertainty surrounding
    the new source review rulemakings but again, as soon as we
    complete them, we will have certainty. The great thing about
    Clear Skies is that by making very clear the targets and
    allowing people the kind of time to make the investment
    decisions, not so much in the assets themselves but in the
    technologies that can control the emissions, we think gives the
    kind of confidence at least in the discussions I have had with
    market analysts, then the kind of confidence that this is worth
    investing in. They understand the rules of the road and are
    pleading for them. They also know that they are reasonable and
    achievable. I think we have a game plan right now that does
    that.
        Carbon caps, putting aside the entire policy debate about
    carbon and focusing on energy impacts, the scary thing about
    carbon caps is we don't understand the control technologies
    necessary to deal with it. We do have some understanding, and
    are putting a lot of money into, carbon sequestration. For
    example, as you well know, the President has proposed a billion
    dollar FutureGen coal plant, not just to produce electricity
    and hydrogen but also to demonstrate how you can divert a
    carbon stream and sequester it.
        I think we need to do those things first. We have a lot of
    work to do to understand how to deal with these things let
    alone before you get to the policy debate of whether or not you
    should deal with it.
        Senator Voinovich. I'd like to point out, Senator Carper,
    our third hearing will deal with emissions technology and the
    issues surrounding financial stability.
        Senator Carper. Great.
        Senator Voinovich. What the investors have to say about the
    current situation as contrasted to Clear Skies or hopefully we
    will even get into talking about what Senator Jeffords offered
    last year with his legislation. Do you have more questions?
        Senator Carper. Maybe a point and maybe a short question.
        I mentioned the numbers I have heard, 3 percent increase in
    terms of shifting from coal to natural gas that might be driven
    by our legislation. While I am not interested in seeing a 1
    percent shift, it is not as great as some had feared.
        The other number I would share is if we pass a 4-P bill or
    a 3-P bill, there are going to be certain costs incurred by
    generators of electricity that will be driven by that. If we
    add a fourth P or add carbon to that, there are some additional
    costs. The numbers we understand have been driven not by us but
    by more objective people than the authors of the bill, suggest
    that the additional cost to utilities would be about 2 percent.
        If those numbers are indeed correct, a 2 percent additional
    cost by adding a fourth P, and a 3 percent shift from coal to
    natural gas, I think it is important that we figure out with
    some certainty if those numbers are correct and if they are,
    then we have to make the judgment of whether that is worth a
    tradeoff in terms of reducing the threat of global warming and
    what that poses for our country and for our planet.
        My own view is those are costs that are worth assuming
    given the benefit although that is one about which reasonable
    people will disagree.
        Let me ask you more of a personal question. Senator
    Voinovich has heard me talk about this before. I was not one to
    put a lot of stock in global warming for a long time. Kyoto
    accords came and went and I didn't pay a lot of attention to
    it. I didn't pay much attention to it until we had a couple of
    researchers from Ohio State University who came to Delaware a
    few years ago to receive a recognition and a major award.
        The research they had done was for the last 20 years going
    around the world and climbing to the top of some of the tallest
    mountains in the world and measuring the disappearance of the
    ice caps and charting it for the last couple decades. I sat up
    and took notice. I have continued as we have gone forward since
    then.
        Now I am in a position where we have the opportunity to do
    something about it and we have the President's proposal which
    is not to address it now but to do more research. We have
    Senator Jeffords' approach which is to do even more than
    utilities can do in a realistic manner.
        Take off your hat as Deputy Secretary of Energy and do you
    think at all about global warming? Do you worry at all about
    what it poses to us? Is it something that has crossed your
    mind? Where are you as a human being on this one?
        Mr. McSlarrow. It is hard to testify as a human being.
        Senator Carper. It is hard for us to ask questions as human
    beings too.
        Mr. McSlarrow. Of course. I really don't know of anybody
    that doesn't think about it, debate it or argue it.
        Senator Carper. I think there are plenty of people who
    don't.
        Mr. McSlarrow. I would say this. The issue is one where I
    think on a personal level and I suspect for a lot of people it
    is one where you want to be right. You described a couple of
    alternatives but you left one out and that is what the
    President is doing on the subject. It is not like we are
    standing still. We have an aggressive, 18 percent greenhouse
    gas intensity reduction target in a decade.
        Senator Carper. I'm sorry, say that again?
        Mr. McSlarrow. An 18 percent reduction in greenhouse gas
    intensity.
        Senator Carper. It is an 18 percent reduction in growth and
    we are not talking about cutting it below what it is this year
    or next year?
        Mr. McSlarrow. Right.
        Senator Carper. But whatever it is going to be x number of
    years from now, we are going to reduce that growth by 18
    percent?
        Mr. McSlarrow. Right. To the issue you raised which is
    where are you in terms of what you are worrying about. I think
    there is enough uncertainty about the science and on the
    effects and how we deal with it. We are spending $4 billion a
    year. This is what the President has requested to do the R&D on
    the science and technology but in addition to that, we are
    actually trying to at least put us in a position if down the
    road we get some certain answers to these questions we are in a
    position to deal with it.
        I am comfortable with that as a human being and most
    importantly as the guy who works for the President because at
    the end of the day there is enough uncertainty about this that
    if we go another direction and risk not your bill but other
    proposals that I have seen, really devastating the coal
    industry and really placing us in a position where we are
    relying on natural gas which we are forecasting even without
    those kinds of measures is going to be doubling in terms of the
    liquefied natural gas imports we are going to have in another
    20 years.
        Senator Carper. Mr. Chairman, I would like to say this as
    much to you as to our witness. I am a native of West Virginia
    but I represent Delaware now and have lived there for over 30
    years. We have a lot of farming in our State and I know you do
    in Ohio. We have a lot of chemical plants, Dupont, Hercules and
    others in our State and I know you do in Ohio. I am mindful of
    the cost pressures that are coming to bear on those industries
    as well as others because of the jump in the price of natural
    gas. I am mindful of that and I know we need to keep our eye on
    the availability of natural gas and the price.
        We are going to have an opportunity when we debate the
    energy bill over the next couple of weeks to consider things
    like a natural gas pipeline from Alaska and whether or not we
    should support that. We are going to have the opportunity to
    actually consider whether we ought to seriously study looking
    at some places off our coast for natural gas, places we haven't
    looked for a while. Those are factors that need to come to this
    discussion as well. I am sure they will.
        Thank you. It's good to see you.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Mr. McSlarrow. Thanks for
    being here.
        Mr. McSlarrow. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Voinovich. Our next panel of witnesses consists of
    Mr. Jim Krimmel, President, Zaclon Chemical. Mr. Krimmel has
    testified before on the spike in gas prices in 2000-2001. Our
    next witnesses will be Mr. Richard Metz, Co-Executive Officer,
    UNIMARK, L.L.C., Mr. Steve Thumb, Principal, Energy Ventures
    Incorporated, Mr. Joel Bluestein, President, Energy and
    Environmental Analysis, Inc.
        I would like the witness to know that we'd like you to
    limit your statements to 5 minutes. We would welcome to the
    record your complete statements.
        We will start this morning with Mr. Krimmel.

         STATEMENT OF JAMES KRIMMEL, PRESIDENT, ZACLON CHEMICAL

        Mr. Krimmel. Thank you. It is very nice to see you again.
        I want to thank the subcommittee for allowing me to speak
    here today. What I have to tell you is very simple. If you look
    at my testimony it is very simple stuff but it is very vital as
    well. It is vital to me, vital to my family, my employees and
    my employees' families. It is the story of the effect of the
    escalating natural gas cost on one small manufacturer, Zaclon
    Inc.
        Zaclon is my company. We are located in Cleveland, Ohio. We
    are a producer of specialty chemicals as well as some bulk
    chemicals. We sell worldwide. We are the world's largest
    producer of zinc ammonium chloride galvanizing fluxes and we
    sell in 19 countries. We are a small company, 35 employees,
    less than $12 million in annual revenues, unfortunately. We not
    only have domestic competitors but our primary competitor is
    European and has been historically. Increasingly we are seeing
    the Asian competitors starting to penetrate the markets we are
    serving as well.
        I am also currently the chairman of the Board of Directors
    of the Ohio Manufacturers Association. The OMA, with its 2,500
    member companies, is the voice of manufacturing in Ohio and a
    vital part of the strength of Ohio's economy.
        In the interest of time, I would like to the graphs I have
    included. I am kind of a visual person. If you would take a
    look at my first graph, it shows the energy costs for Zaclon
    Inc. over the past 15 years, the company has been in existence
    for 16 years. I don't know what happened to the data in our
    first year. I guess we weren't very efficient in those days.
        This is an interesting chart in that it shows our energy
    costs, utility costs by medium, water, electricity, natural gas
    and you can see by far natural gas is our highest utility cost.
    You can also see that from 1999 to 2002, it shows a 63 percent
    increase in our natural gas costs.
        This is interesting enough but it is much more telling if
    you combine it with sales. My next chart superimposes our
    product sales over our total energy costs. You can see here
    that despite declining sales, our total energy costs have been
    increasing over the past 10 years.
        The reason is largely fuel switching in my opinion coupled
    with inadequate exploration of natural gas. The fundamentals of
    natural gas have changed in the last 3 years. The volatility is
    unbelievable. It adds a level of uncertainty in our business
    that is very difficult to deal with. In the long run, as
    manufacturing recovers, as it will, and additional fuel
    switching occurs, the problem is only going to get worse. It is
    ont going to get better. That threatens the very existence of
    companies like mine, Zaclon and all 35 of our employees. It is
    not a huge number of employees but to all of us who have jobs,
    it is very important that we continue to be in business.
        To further illustrate the changes in energy cost to Zaclon
    Inc. I included a couple pie charts and the pie charts show
    that in 1999, and this is true for the years prior to 1999,
    energy was 10 percent of my total cost picture, raw materials
    were 44 percent, labor 21 percent and all other costs amounted
    to another 25 percent.
        The cost structure in 2002 shows energy is now 15 percent
    of my total cost. While we have been able to reduce raw
    material cost to 39 percent, labor has remained roughly steady
    and we haven't had to reduce people. I am trying desperately
    not to have to reduce people as a way of offsetting some of the
    increased energy costs. We are trying to improve efficiencies,
    we are doing that but it is just not enough. As natural gas
    continues to escalate, it is going to be more of a challenge
    for my company and my employees.
        The final chart I show is a bunch of data points, 172 data
    points over 15 years of Zaclon's natural gas delivered price.
    If you look at data points starting at 134, 2001, you can see
    how the volatility and the price has increased, our delivered
    price for natural gas.
        Prior to that time, we had seasonal peaks. We had the
    predictable winter peaks, some lower areas at lower prices
    during the summer but since 2001, that is simply not the case.
    The peaks are much higher and the average pricing is much
    higher. The last peak, the end of February, our delivered price
    of natural gas in March was over $11 per 1,000 cubic feet. I
    basically curtailed operations, I just couldn't afford to make
    product and sell it at that natural gas price.
        In closing, I strongly urge you to serious consider what
    you do here and how it impacts the price of natural gas because
    it is so vitally important to my company and to others across
    the Nation, small, medium and even large manufacturers. We
    really want to keep these companies going, we want to keep the
    jobs there but we need some help too.
        Thank you very much.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Metz, Senator Inhofe asked me to
    welcome you as a resident of Oklahoma. I don't know whether he
    had a chance to say hello to you or not when he was here. We
    are glad to have you here today.

       STATEMENT OF RICHARD METZ, CO-EXECUTIVE OFFICER, UNIMARK,
                                 L.L.C.

        Mr. Metz. I represent a small company, 11 employees. I have
    been in the EMP side and the marketing side of oil and gas for
    35 years and have concentrated over the last 10 years with the
    creation of UNIMARK. Our focus and function is to help small
    producers market their gas and at the same time, they will be
    discussing with me where the price of gas is going and what we
    can expect. As a result of that, I have tried to follow the
    marketplace and help them understand what my future forecast
    would be for prices or demand for gas so they can decide
    whether they want to put their funding capital into drilling
    additional wells and would they be able to get an economic
    return over the life of those.
        I, like the gentleman to the right, have put together some
    graphs and included those with my testimony. If you look at
    Exhibit A of that, it is a graph of the production in the U.S.
    in bcf per day. Over time, we used to see a summer curtailment
    or decline in the consumption, therefore we had to have a
    summer curtailment or decline in the production. As additional
    demands are made on gas, that summer curtailment as you can see
    is going away.
        Senator Carper. Would you go back and take it from the top
    of Exhibit A?
        Mr. Metz. Exhibit A is taking the EIA dry gas production
    data that is published monthly and determining a bcf per day.
    What are we producing? If you do it on a monthly basis, you get
    some strange things when February comes along and that kind of
    stuff. I revised the data to 1 billion cubic feet per day. This
    is the U.S. dry production after they process and treat it.
    That's what ends up in the pipeline to be consumed.
        You can see back in the late 1980's, every summer there was
    a falloff in the production because there was a falloff in the
    demand. We had excess capacity. Prices reflected part of that.
    As the system has gone forward, we have trouble running in
    place, keeping up with our production last year because every
    year, those wells that are there are declining. So you have to
    add so many new wells to make up for the difference.
        You can see starting in the early to mid 1990's, we are
    basically running wide open 365 days a year. Statistically, the
    same numbers in a table form says that since 1996, we have been
    producing 97 plus percent of the total peak production each
    year. So if you hiccup, you are in trouble. I am seeing that
    happening.
        I am marketing as for 400-500 small producers primarily in
    Oklahoma. They are not curtailing gas, we are moving all the
    gas they have and they are out trying to find more. On the
    other hand, what is the future price going to be, what is the
    demand going to be. Those things are impacting their decisions.
    The energy business has been through a little turmoil in the
    last couple of years starting with Enron and others that things
    aren't a guarantee that what people say is going to happen will
    so they are a little more conservative.
        Our drilling in the last 12 to 18 months has been more
    conservative and therefore, we are having trouble keeping just
    our gas levels where they are.
        Exhibit C is somewhat like Senator Inhofe's graph showing
    where prices are and extreme volatility. When you have those
    kinds of numbers going up and down, he has trouble figuring out
    how he's going to market his product or make it a reasonable
    amount and the producer has trouble figuring out which
    prospects he should drill and will he get a reasonable return.
        From that graph you can see the real deal is that people
    are more concerned there is going to be enough because the
    price goes up when a scarcity of the commodity. With those
    kinds of volatility, I want to say in the last week the price
    of gas as varied by more than 10 percent. That makes everyone
    nervous.
        As the Administration witness discussed, the storage levels
    are extremely low. We are going to have to put in over 12
    billion cubic feet a day between now and the end of October to
    get back to last year's levels. You can see on Exhibit D where
    we can be ready to meet the winter needs of a normal winter or
    colder in some areas as we had last year. Even though we drew
    down storage to the lowest levels than they have since they
    started keeping this information, last winter was not an
    abnormally cold winter across the U.S. Certain areas were, but
    on average we were 4 percent warmer than normal. So we have a
    real problem in filling up that storage. That is why we don't
    have summer curtailments anymore in production.
        The bottom line, the producers would like obviously to see
    better prices; at the same time, they don't want those prices
    to cause displacement of industry and consumers. I think the
    biggest thing from the supply side is to be sure we don't make
    off limits certain onshore and offshore areas that could lead
    to additional production.
        That is the bottom line of where I am coming from.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Mr. Thumb?

         STATEMENT OF STEVE THUMB, PRINCIPAL, ENERGY VENTURES
                              INCORPORATED

        Mr. Thumb. I am Steven Thumb and I appreciate the
    opportunity to present testimony before you today.
        I am Energy Ventures Analysis' principal that is in charge
    of their oil and gas practice and have followed and
    participated in the industry for over 30 years.
        You have written copies of my testimony, so I thought I
    would merely go forward with some major points. I am focusing
    on the impact of the proposed Clean Air requirements on the
    natural gas supply sector.
        First, with respect to the current status of the natural
    gas supply sector, over the last 2 years, the gas supply has
    been challenged to meet the Nation's natural gas demand levels.
    This in turn has caused natural gas prices to reach record
    levels and demand destruction in the nonelectric sectors.
        For example, in the industrial sector, natural gas
    consumption has declined 26 percent or 5.5 bcfd a day since
    2000. Because a series of companies had to go bankrupt, idle
    capacity or essentially cut back production because they can't
    pass through the high cost of natural gas. In addition, the
    residential customer is seeing gas supply costs increase $17
    billion.
        The primary reason for the situation is U.S. production is
    declining and western Canada production can no longer fill the
    gap. More specifically, U.S. production has been declining for
    each of the last six quarters and the cumulative to date is a
    3.5 bcf per day decline or 6 percent. As a way of comparison,
    that is out of an average consumption for the U.S. on an
    average basis of about 57 bcfd a day.
        More important than this current challenge and its
    associated impacts is it is not going to go away for an
    extended period of time as a result of the combination of high
    decline rates for existing production and the limited increases
    in drilling activity. These latter two items have basically put
    the industry on a treadmill to maintain production, let alone
    to try and increase it.
        The high decline rates of existing production in essence
    have reduced the average practical well life from about 10
    years in the early 1990's to about 3 years today. With respect
    to the limited increases in drilling activity we have had
    despite these record gas prices, two of the major reasons are
    environmental restrictions and moratoria and the lack of scale
    for the remaining undiscovered reserves.
        Concerning the latter item, this is the reason the major
    EMP firms left the shelf region of the Gulf of Mexico which
    historically has been the most prolific region we have had in
    the U.S. Basically, the large scale plays just aren't there. As
    a result, it is becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. gas
    supply sector just cannot depend on traditional sources of
    supply to meet projected increases in demand.
        Instead, in the longer term, U.S. gas supply sector will
    have to rely on a series of emerging gas supply sources of
    which I noted six in my written statement to fill any gap
    between supply and demand. One of the key dilemmas with these
    emerging sources of supply is that they are for the most part
    very large, complex and capital intensive projects that will
    require an extended timeframe to develop.
        My written testimony provided several examples of the
    complex and risky nature as well as the lengthy timeframe to
    develop these emerging resources. Included in these examples
    were industry's current delay in developing offshore eastern
    Canada, the long period of time it takes to permit and build
    new LNG terminals, and the fact the earliest the lower 48 will
    receive Arctic gas supplies will be 2009 and that will be from
    Canada's McKenzie Valley Pipeline Project.
        With respect to the two Arctic gas pipeline projects,
    namely the McKenzie Valley and Prudhoe Bay projects, let me
    note that their combined initial capacity, net of incremental
    Canadian demand, is only 1.3 bcfd a day greater than the loss
    in current production levels over the last six quarters
    identified in my opening comments. That is a very small
    increase. The basic point is we are going to need that just to
    replace what we've lost.
        Senator Carper. Would you say that again? I want to make
    sure I understand what you just said.
        Mr. Thumb. You have two projects, one coming down from
    McKenzie Bay and the other from Prudhoe Bay. Their combined
    initial capacity net of what Canada will need primarily for its
    heavy oil to sands projects will only be 1.3 bcfd a day greater
    than the loss in production we have seen from existing in the
    last six quarters.
        With respect to the proposed Clean Air requirements, one of
    the significant impacts of those requirements is the proposed
    increases in the Clean Air requirements is that they will cause
    coal-fired generation to be reduced and as a consequence, gas-
    fired generation to increase. This has already happened under
    existing regulations. For example this year we had closure of
    the Possum Point coal plant in Virginia and the Gannon plant in
    Florida both of which were replaced by gas units on the same
    site. This increasing dependency on electric sector gas-fired
    generation which will only serve to exacerbate the problems or
    the challenge for the U.S. gas supply sector is already
    happening. Electric sector gas demand has increased, 45 percent
    or 4.7 bcfd a day since 1996. Of particular concern for the
    U.S. gas supply sector is the accelerated timetables and the
    higher emission requirements contained in some of the proposed
    initiatives as both will serve to only overload an already
    overloaded gas supply sector.
        With respect to the increased production levels, of
    particular concern to the supply sector are the carbon dioxide
    limitations since the power industry has no viable control
    option and as a result must rely totally on switching
    generation to lower carbon containing fuels, primarily natural
    gas.
        Of the various clean air initiatives you all are
    considering, S. 366 and S. 843 with their accelerated
    timetables for emission reductions and their larger emission
    reduction requirements, particularly CO2
    requirements, would represent an overload for the U.S. gas
    supply sector which would force the rest of the U.S. economy
    into hardship.
        With respect to S. 485, it also represents a challenge for
    the U.S. gas supply sector. However, by eliminating the
    mandatory CO2 requirements that are included in the
    other bills and by providing a longer implementation period for
    the required emission reductions, it may be at least manageable
    from a natural gas supply standpoint.
        In summary, the U.S. gas supply sector is really struggling
    to meet existing demand. The acceleration of the proposed Clean
    Air requirements timelines and higher emission levels will only
    further raise gas prices. The empirical evidence to date
    clearly suggests that the net results of accelerated Clean Air
    requirements would be very high gas prices with all their
    attendant cost increases on the other sectors and demand
    destruction within the non-electric sectors.
        Thank you for your time.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Mr. Thumb.
        Mr. Bluestein?

          STATEMENT OF JOEL BLUESTEIN, PRESIDENT, ENERGY AND
                      ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC.

        Mr. Bluestein. Thank you.
        I have submitted more detailed testimony but for the sake
    of brevity I would like to summarize the key points.
        Thank you for the opportunity to testify today. My name is
    Joel Bluestein, President of Energy and Environmental Analysis,
    Inc. EEA has been providing energy and environmental consulting
    services since 1974. Among our major areas of expertise are
    analyzing and forecasting supply, demand and price of natural
    gas, the impacts of regulatory policy on energy markets and
    energy technologies. We have done this work for natural gas
    producers, pipelines, local distribution companies, power
    generators, technology developers, the U.S. Department of
    Energy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and other
    public, private and institutional clients.
        The key points of my testimony are largely what you have
    heard already, the gas supply/demand balance has gotten tighter
    and will remain tight; gas prices will be higher than in recent
    history, perhaps significantly higher; power generation will be
    the major growth sector for gas demand. All of this will happen
    independent of any new environmental regulation of the power
    sector. However, multi-pollutant regulation of the power sector
    can be accomplished I believe without exacerbating the gas
    supply/demand balance and it can be designed to reduce the gas
    issue by encouraging development of new, clean and more
    efficient coal and gas technologies through gradual
    implementation and allocation of allowances to new plants.
        There is a figure at the beginning of my testimony which
    summarizes our most recent 20 year forecast of North American
    natural gas prices and it shows that we expect gas prices at
    the Henry Hub to average about $5.70 per million btu for the
    next 2 years and decline to a level around $4.50 per million
    btu in constant dollars for the remainder of the forecast. This
    is substantially higher than historical prices as you have
    heard.
        The roots of this change reflect the tighter balance of
    supply and demand for natural gas resulting in higher prices
    and increased volatility. It does not mean that we are running
    out of natural gas but it does mean that gas producers need to
    look farther afield and spend more money to meet the demand for
    gas and that is reflected in the price.
        Our forecast involves a scenario that requires very large
    investments of capital, a lot of positive policy decisions such
    as support for Alaskan gas pipeline, development of new
    drilling areas, development of LNG terminals, et cetera. If
    these don't occur, then there is more upside potential than
    downside on gas prices.
        The question of how we can best ensure an adequate gas
    supply is complex and important. It is already being discussed
    in other forums as mentioned earlier and it probably needs a
    lot more discussion. I think the question for today is how does
    the gas supply price and supply outlook affect environmental
    regulation of the power generation sector? My short answers are
    that multi-pollutant regulation of NOx, SO2 and
    mercury should and can be accomplished without exacerbating the
    gas supply balance and that multi-pollutant regulation should
    and can be designed to allow and encourage a new generation of
    cleaner, more efficient coal plants that will allow continued
    use of coal for power generation in an environmentally sound
    manner.
        I think the concern that air regulations will push gas
    demand for power generation inexorably until it threatens our
    economy is overstated. The EPA modeling of the Clear Skies Act
    and many separate mercury control scenarios does not show
    significance switching from coal to gas, even though it was
    done assuming much lower gas prices than we currently project.
    Under our higher projected gas prices, we would expect even
    less switching to gas.
        While a lot of new gas generating capacity has been built
    recently, in certain areas, these new gas plants actually
    reduced gas consumption by replacing older, less efficient gas
    generation. We have seen old gas powerplants retired in Texas
    because they cannot compete with the new, more efficient gas
    plants and it has been estimated that replacing all the old gas
    plants in Texas with new state-of-the-art gas combined cycle
    plants could reduce gas consumption for power generation in the
    State by over 200 bcf per year.
        Use of even more efficient combined heat and power could
    make this reduction even greater and could apply in other parts
    of the southwest as well as parts of the west, south and north
    east. So new, efficient gas plants can be part of the solution.
        At the same time, the higher gas prices go, the better the
    economics of coal look. Coal plants today with SO2
    and NOx controls are highly competitive in the market. New coal
    plants being built are even cleaner. New coal technologies
    being developed such as fluidized bed and integrated
    gasification combined cycle plants are cleaner and more
    efficient yet. This kind of new technology is vital to
    addressing additional pollutants such as mercury or even
    CO2.
        Multi-pollutant programs such as proposed here will help
    the development of new, clean coal technologies by providing
    increased regulatory certainty and flexibility to find
    effective compliance solutions.
        One shortcoming of the Clear Skies Act in supporting new
    technology is that the grandfathering approach to allowance
    allocation disadvantages new plants in general and new coal
    plants in particular. The failure to allocate allowances to new
    coal plants creates a disincentive for companies to develop
    these plants and drives the power sector more toward gas.
        An allocation approach that includes new plants through
    updating the allocation and rewards efficiency is one way to
    help ensure that we can continue to rely on our substantial
    coal resources. Phased implementation of emission caps is also
    important for the development of new technology. Command and
    control programs and cap and trade programs with large
    reduction steps don't provide enough time for technology
    development. On the other hand, delaying the imposition of the
    regulation doesn't provide a sufficient driver for technology
    development. A series of more gradual steps can jump start
    technology development, keep it moving and avoid economic
    disruption.
        I believe that an appropriately designed, gradual cap and
    trade approach could even be used to address CO2
    reductions by promoting a long term, balanced mix of gas
    renewables, advanced coal technology such as IGCC with
    sequestration, combined heat and power and other efficiency
    measures. This is illustrated in my testimony with an approach
    in which the emission caps actually increases for the first
    several years and then levels off and begins a very gradual
    decline to an end point in 2060.
        In conclusion, we do see higher gas prices in the future
    regardless of what regulations are imposed on the power
    generation sector. This increase and its implications need to
    be addressed separately from the effect of multi-pollutant
    regulations. Higher gas prices will increase the value of new,
    clean, efficient coal technologies and multi-pollutant
    legislation can encourage the development of these technologies
    and limit reliance on gas by providing allowance allocations
    for new, clean coal and efficient gas technologies through
    updating and by setting gradually declining emission caps from
    an early starting point.
        Thank you again for this opportunity to speak.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Mr. Bluestein.
        We will start a series of questions. I will try and limit
    mine to 5 minutes. Then I will give Senator Carper a chance and
    keep going back and forth.
        Mr. Krimmel, you mentioned it is essential that American
    manufacturers have access to affordable, reliable energy in
    order to compete in the global marketplace. I noticed in your
    testimony that you really are concerned about this.
        Could you share with us your experiences in that global
    marketplace and how it has impacted your business and as
    chairman of the Ohio Manufacturers Association, how it has
    impacted some of your other associates in that organization?
        The thing I remember most from your testimony when we had
    the listening session in Cleveland was that but for your energy
    costs, you had a profitable year and because of the spike in
    the cost, you lost money. I have commented I think the
    beginning of the recession in Ohio started with the spiking of
    gas prices during that period of time which sent a real chill
    through the manufacturing sector.
        Mr. Krimmel. Yes, I certainly agree. In fact, when I
    arrived in Washington today I saw a graph of manufacturing jobs
    in Ohio and while my testimony indicates there are over 1
    million direct manufacturing jobs in Ohio, I am sad to say it
    has crossed below a million just recently. The graph really
    begins dropping precipitously in 2001 the number of
    manufacturing jobs in Ohio. If you do the inverse of that and
    track natural gas, that is when the natural gas became very
    high priced and volatile. I think it was a major contributor to
    the loss of these jobs.
        I can't emphasize enough that there are certain things I
    can do better than my European competitors, better than my
    Asian competitors. I am not afraid of paying my people $20 a
    hour while the Asians are paying $20 a week because my workers
    are much more productive than their workers and I am investing
    in productivity improvement. That is an important asset. I can
    offset that.
        I cannot offset the natural gas difference and I wasn't
    certain before I came here today what the difference in price
    of natural gas in Asia and here was but I heard earlier
    testimony that indicated our prices here are nearly double what
    they are, what my competitors in Asia are paying.
        My strategy to reverse the trend of declining sales which I
    showed in the one chart and we started to turn around in 1997
    was through increased exports, mainly to Latin America. We
    currently export about 17 percent of our materials to Latin
    America. Prior to that time, it was just a declining domestic
    market that was affecting my sales.
        My ability to continue to grow that export market was
    severely affected by the run-up in natural gas, I just couldn't
    compete with the materials coming over from Asia and Europe in
    Latin America. So it has had that type of impact. It is life
    threatening to a company like Zaclon and I have heard Henry Hub
    prices of $5.70. You have to understand that translated into
    delivered prices to a company like Zaclon of about $7.50 and
    that is exactly twice what it has historically been.
        How can I offset that? I am not certain how I can offset
    that. I will do everything I can but I don't know.
        Senator Voinovich. Have you heard the same complaints or do
    you have any statistics on the price of natural gas on the
    other manufacturers?
        Mr. Krimmel. I certainly have heard the same complaints.
    Natural gas is a major cost factor for all manufacturers in
    Ohio, not only the chemical manufacturers but yes.
        Senator Voinovich. Does the Manufacturers Association
    maintain any kind of statistical analyses on its impact?
        Mr. Krimmel. I don't think we have done an in-depth
    analysis of the impact of natural gas prices on the loss of
    jobs in Ohio. I am not certain. I will check into it and if
    there is, I can provide that.
        Senator Voinovich. It would be interesting to me. I would
    be interested in having a survey of your membership to get an
    on-the-street appraisal of what impact it has had on their
    businesses, not only in this country but also in the global
    marketplace in terms of international competition and what
    indication they have of the costs their competitors are having
    to pay for natural gas.
        Mr. Krimmel. I will see, Senator, whether we have anything
    first, I don't think so, and if not, I will see what we can
    initiate and get information to you.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. Mr. Thumb, I think I understood you to say
    earlier in your testimony that electric generators have no
    other alternative than switching to natural gas to meet
    CO2 limits. I am wondering if there are maybe some
    other alternatives than just that one. Among the alternatives
    are becoming more efficient and one of those opportunities
    might be through co-generation, another could be coal
    gasification.
        Yesterday, I went for a drive in Washington. I don't
    normally do that, I normally jump on a train and come down here
    and go home every night to Delaware. I drove a car and I saw
    Senator Voinovich doing the same thing. I don't often see him
    driving around Washington.
        Senator Voinovich. Because I don't have a car here.
        Senator Carper. The folks from GM were good enough to loan
    us both a car for a few minutes and we went for a short drive.
    The cars we drove were powered by hydrogen and used fuel cells
    and there is a fair amount of interest and focus on fuel cell
    technology, mobile fuel cell technology in our cars, trucks and
    vans as we look toward to having those on the road in some
    numbers by the end of this decade.
        Not as much attention has been given to the use of fuel
    cells as a stationary source of power within the manufacturing
    business or it could be in a home and the ability for us to
    generate the electricity we need through fuel cells and even
    sell electricity onto the grid.
        Did I hear you correctly when you said that, Mr. Thumb?
        Mr. Thumb. If I said that, I spoke incorrectly. I thought I
    said primarily natural gas was the alternative. In my written
    testimony, I did try to make that point that substantially a
    change will have to come and then went through the other
    potential fuels, the possibility of increasing hydro, the
    possibility of our getting new and I went into the renewables
    potential and tried to point out those. I do think the one
    footnote tries to clarify that. My apologies, I thought I said
    primarily.
        It is a big shift. Every time we model it a huge percentage
    of that shift goes to natural gas and hopefully I used the word
    primarily.
        I was interested in your point on fuel cells. If you would
    allow me, natural gas is a big contributor if you are going to
    fuel cell technology. I think only 5 percent of hydrogen comes
    from natural sources and then you have to get it from others
    and natural gas is one of the big ones to generate that kind of
    hydrogen.
        Again, I am deeply concerned about the supply sector and
    that is the only thing I came to testify to you about.
        Senator Carper. I don't know if any of our witnesses are up
    to speed on clean coal technology and what you see waiting in
    the wings or what has been developed at the R&D level, pilot
    technology level. Are any of you able to share with us some up
    to date reports with respect to clean coal technology,
    particularly as it pertains to levels of emissions we are able
    to achieve? Mr. Bluestein?
        Mr. Bluestein. I can give a small report. I think we are
    all aware of integrated gasification combined cycle technology
    which is certainly not the newest technology. As mentioned
    earlier, criteria pollutant levels comparable to natural gas
    combined cycles and also offers the opportunity for lower cost
    method of removing CO2 which could be sequestered.
    Deputy Secretary McSlarrow mentioned the zero generation coal
    technology being pursued. There is a new plant in Pennsylvania,
    a company called WMPI that is going to be used coal waste that
    has been left around for many years to generate electricity and
    steam and clean diesel fuel and potentially could be shifted to
    generate hydrogen from coal.
        I think if we are looking at controlling CO2,
    clearly the answer in the long term is that we have to be able
    to use these clean coal technologies and generate electricity
    with sequestration or generate hydrogen. Mr. Thumb is correct,
    right now most hydrogen comes from natural gas. In the long
    term, it could come from coal and that technology is known. It
    is an issue of making it less expensive.
        I think the key issue here is how does multi-pollutant
    regulation facilitate that change. How is the legislation
    written to encourage that technology conversion? I think for
    example the Carper-Chafee-Gregg bill makes some good steps in
    that direction. There are also aspects of Clear Skies that help
    that.
        Senator Carper. In the second round, I want to come back to
    that point with you, Mr. Bluestein, and with others on the
    panel. I would like to discuss what do we need to be doing
    legislatively in order to encourage the investment in those
    kinds of technology, not just by the Government, not just by
    the Federal Government, but what do we need to do to encourage
    investment in those kinds of technologies by the utilities and
    by those who invest in utility companies?
        Mr. Thumb. Senator, on your question, you said any of us. I
    am not an expert in those clean coal technologies but if you
    would allow, one of my colleagues with whom I work closely is
    here and could provide additional response if you choose. He
    happens to be sitting in the first row. That is up to you if
    you would like to hear his response.
        Senator Carper. That is fine with me. Would you identify
    yourself for the record?
        Mr. Hewson. My name is Tom Hewson.
        I would just like to reiterate what Mr. Bluestein said as
    well, that obviously we have been making a large investment in
    doing research, in trying to improve clean coal technologies.
    We are trying to push the limits and get more and improved
    technologies. IGCC, which I think you mentioned, is one of the
    technologies in which we are spending a lot of time and effort
    and has the potential to reduce or improve the fuel efficiency
    of coal fired generation significantly above more conventional
    technologies today.
        We are still pursuing, we still have a ways to go before we
    make them competitive with existing conventional technologies.
        Senator Carper. Thank you.
        Mr. Thumb. You specifically mentioned co-gen and I just
    wanted to let you know in all the analysis we have done,
    including the analysis that I tried to summarize for you today
    does include 25,000 megawatts of co-gen which the industry is
    planning to do, so we already have that in our numbers. Even
    with that, we still see this problem for the supply sector.
        I would encourage you that the timelines are what concerns
    the gas supply sector the most, to the extent those timelines
    can be extended even slightly to allow more time to come in so
    things other than natural gas that would help the sector. We
    have a real problem.
        Senator Voinovich. Are you familiar with the comparison of
    our natural gas prices with those overseas?
        Mr. Thumb. Probably cannot do those off the top of my head.
    To do what comes out of Zeiberg and Germany and those in Asia,
    those are well published and I would have to go back and look
    them up. I cannote to you that we have done research in this
    battle between naptha and oil for ethylene which we used to
    have an advantage in the 1990's and 1980's has switched and the
    latest numbers I have is we have now gone to a 23 percent
    switch. We were 23 percent less competitive than we were before
    because of the change in the naptha/oil/gas. That is just on
    the ethylene crackers. Then you have to go through the whole
    chain to figure out the rest.
        The chemical industry is hurting and I tried to put some of
    that in my testimony about this fundamental shift between the
    competition between Europe and Asia, particularly Asia. We were
    at one time the world's largest exporter of chemicals and it
    doesn't look like that past is going to happen. Asia and Europe
    are definitely going to intrude upon that with this fundamental
    shift in the raw material feedstock.
        Senator Voinovich. That is the same type of information I
    have gotten from some people who have stopped by to see me.
    Does anyone know why is it that their prices are so much lower
    than ours?
        Mr. Metz. My scope is a lot smaller than Oklahoma versus
    the world but I would say they are closer to the sources and
    they have been importing LNG and the pipelines have been built
    from the former Soviet Union and that kind of thing, those
    things are in place and those supplies. In the world we have
    more gas than we consume. It is just trying to get it to the
    customer.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Thumb, do you have any comment on
    that?
        Mr. Thumb. I was trying to do the specifics. I don't think
    I can recall from memory the specifics but the fundamental
    situation particularly in Europe is you do have the supplies,
    you do have supplies coming in from several different sources
    and that has been able to hold it.
        We don't have the multitude of supply options they do and
    plus we are a very mature region. We are going to have to build
    those and we talked about some of these projects, LNG and the
    Arctic gas supplies that will come in hopefully in time.
        They do have the Russian, they do have the Norwegian gas,
    the UK gas as well as that which is on shore that has helped
    them. Asia, I can't do off the top of my head because it is
    very much broken into pieces. It is such a huge area, I would
    have to do research for you.
        Senator Voinovich. Any information you would like to submit
    after this hearing, I would like to see. I think too often when
    we look at some of our things, we just think of the United
    States and whether we like to admit it or not, we are in the
    global marketplace. It is impacting our standard of living and
    it gets back to how do you balance your environmental concerns
    with your economic concerns.
        As Senator Carper mentioned, we will have the energy bill
    on the floor for discussion and the issue is, are there areas
    we should be looking at that would be reasonably productive in
    terms of natural gas, the whole issue of bringing the gas line
    down from Alaska. That is not something around the corner but
    we certainly have to look at those issues. Then you have to
    look at the issue of this balance between went does a utility
    or someone who has to make a decision decide to switch to
    natural gas from something they are now doing.
        Mr. Bluestein your comment was if we put more pressure on
    people that you would see more use of clean coal technology.
    How fast do you do that over a period of time. I keep hearing
    that if you have these caps that are unrealistic or realistic
    but don't give people enough time to comply with it, the only
    choice someone has is to switch to natural gas.
        I guess my point is that I keep hearing from our people in
    Ohio, with the uncertainty we have out there today, and we both
    agree on uncertainty, the only thing I am looking for is any
    new facilities are going to use natural gas. Do you want to
    comment on that?
        Mr. Bluestein. Yes, I think you touched on several key
    points. To take the last, we have heard a variety of situations
    directly and indirectly from large power generating companies
    that with uncertainty over CO2 regulation, they are
    not willing to take a risk. That suggests to me that they need
    to get some certainty through some legislative action.
        At the same time, I agree with you and others here that
    unless something on CO2 or any other pollutant is
    done cautiously it can have grave consequences for the economy.
    I don't know if you had a chance to look at the second chart in
    my testimony but I think the key is timing, as in many things.
    On the one hand, there are these new technologies and people
    will agree that they are not quite ready today, the costs are a
    little too high and we need to work on them more.
        On the other hand, the key driver for those technologies is
    regulation. If we delay the regulation for 10 years, most
    likely we will find ourselves at exactly the same point again.
    If you look at the conventional cap and trade program, it is
    kind of like a cliff. There is an emission level, you come
    along to some point and everybody jumps off the cliff. That is
    a little scary for people.
        The alternative I think is to build a staircase. If we
    replace that cliff by a stair step of gradual reductions, it
    doesn't mean that the bottom has to be any further away in
    terms of the timeline but phase in things gradually, then what
    you do is give people the certainty of where they are going,
    give those people certainty that they need to go somewhere.
        Our history has been that U.S. industry has been very
    effective at finding ways to meet environmental regulations
    given a decent warning. If we could phase it in gradually, then
    I think that would jumpstart these technologies but with no
    timing, I agree, it can be very difficult and probably have
    dire circumstances, particularly for CO2. I think it
    can be done with the proper program design.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Metz, you said we have had a tough
    winter and by this time, we should be building reserves for the
    next one. What is your prediction? If we do have a very hot
    summer, what impact do you think that is going to have relative
    to the prices we have experienced this last winter?
        Mr. Metz. Today the price for this time of year are higher
    than they have ever been. With a very hot summer, the people
    who have to fill the storage to keep the residential people
    warm next winter don't know what next winter is going to be
    like, so they have to get to the historic levels. So they
    become a buyer of gas out there like the manufacturer is trying
    to do. When there are more buyers than sellers, the price is
    going to increase. I don't think it will be quite as dramatic
    if it was 20 below zero on a day but those people have a lot of
    pressure to get back to those 3.1 trillion cubic feet of gas in
    storage by the end of October. That puts more and more pressure
    on the marketplace.
        Senator Voinovich. There is no way that the supply can
    compensate at all for that?
        Mr. Metz. No, I don't. To me the price, when it was at high
    levels in the year 2001, there wasn't this massive amount of
    new gas supply that came to the marketplace under those price
    scenarios. It was a little growth and trying to maintain which
    is very hard. As Mr. Thumb said, the places to drill in the
    U.S. are very mature, so there is not a lot of big reservoirs
    waiting to happen. The biggest reservoir you can think of is
    the North Slope and that is a long term process to get that gas
    down to the U.S.
        Senator Voinovich. Some say that don't worry about it, we
    will have liquefied natural gas. That isn't cheap, is it?
        Mr. Metz. If the current price, the things I have read, is
    $3 plus for gas on a long term basis can make those more
    viable, but the current level of imports of LNG is 1.2 percent
    of the total consumption we have. They are talking about
    increasing that 15 fold over the next 10 or 12 years. That is a
    major increase. I keep seeing people who want to site an LNG
    import facility have problems getting that done. I think that
    is a very strong goal to try to reach, so I am not sure it is
    going to be as significant in the timeframe people are
    predicting.
        Senator Voinovich. It is relatively expensive?
        Mr. Metz. It is expensive to a degree. When LNG first
    started, the people who had it were the Algerians and that kind
    of thing and they wanted to price it at a much higher price, so
    all that business fell apart. A lot of those were mothballed
    and not used.
        I think now the biggest supplier of LNG is Trinidad, so
    that is much closer to the U.S. and there has been a lot of
    rethinking of how it should be priced. So it is more viable
    today I believe but it still has a cost. You can't instantly
    have enough ships to haul it in because they take special ships
    to do that. You have to have unloading facilities and
    regasifying facilities and you have to get past the permitting
    to be able to do that.
        Even though it is out there, gas in the world is greater
    than we consume, it is just not easy to move across the ocean.
        Senator Voinovich. It would be interesting to measure. We
    have an economic stimulus bill we are considering now and I
    have discussed that with a lot of people in my State and they
    have said to me if you could do something about the natural gas
    prices, it would have more effect on my business than any
    stimulus package you could pass here in Washington.
        We have an economy that is pretty fragile right now. It
    seems to me that we have to start looking at some of these
    other costs that we have that are bringing us down. For
    example, I have been hearing more and more complaints from
    manufacturers about competition from China. People are
    complaining about litigation costs and some of the other things
    out there impacting on our economy.
        I think so often we just don't face up to some of the real
    problems we have. It would be wonderful if somehow we could
    compromise to get people in a room and work out some of these
    issues that have been around for a long time and we don't
    address them. I don't think we are making great progress in
    improving the quality of the environment, nor are we doing very
    much in terms of providing reasonable energy for our businesses
    and our people and our country.
        Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. Mr. Krimmel, I meant to as you this
    question earlier but it slipped my mind. How long have you
    lived in or around Cleveland?
        Mr. Krimmel. Fifty-six years. I am from Cleveland, went to
    school in Cleveland and started my business in Cleveland.
        Senator Carper. I presume you have seen a number of mayors
    of Cleveland come and go over that time?
        Mr. Krimmel. I have, yes.
        Senator Carper. Were there any you thought did an
    especially good job?
        Mr. Krimmel. As I recall, the real turnaround in Cleveland
    came under Senator Voinovich. I have to give him some credit
    for that.
        Senator Carper. I have heard that from many people. Every
    time they visit the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, they come back
    singing his tune.
        On a more serious note, Mr. Bluestein, you talked a bit
    about steps versus cliffs and said our experience as a Nation
    is when we put in place environmental regulations and give
    reasonable amounts of time for compliance, then usually with
    Yankee ingenuity and a lot of hard work and some good
    investment, our companies and businesses can get there and stay
    in business and remain profitable and do the right thing for
    the environment.
        We have introduced the legislation I have referred to a
    couple of times along with Senator Chafee and Senator Gregg.
    When you characterize the approach we have taken with respect
    to CO2, we don't mandate. I think in Senator
    Jeffords' bill he mandates getting back to 1990 emission levels
    I think within this decade. In our legislation, we say by 2009,
    CO2 emissions have to be where they were in 2005. By
    the year 2013, we call for ratcheting down CO2
    emissions where they were in 2001. Is that a cliff or is that a
    staircase approach?
        Mr. Bluestein. I think the key issue in that legislation is
    that you also allow off-sector reductions. I think in doing any
    kind of CO2 mitigation, there are two safety valves.
    One is off-sector reductions which you incorporate; the other
    would be timing which is the example I gave.
        I agree there is a huge amount of uncertainty about how we
    reach long term CO2 targets. It is critical that we
    promote long term solutions like new coal technology,
    sequestration, other things we probably haven't thought of yet.
    I think if there were no off-sector reductions allowed in the
    legislation you've offered, I would be concerned. I think with
    the off-sector reductions, it offers a safety valve.
        The concern I would have is does it at the same time
    provide the push for the new coal technologies? That is what
    you really need to move forward.
        On the other hand, you do have an allocation program that
    is more favorable to new technologies including coal
    technologies. So that is a bonus for going down that longer
    term path.
        Senator Carper. Someone told me the other day that if you
    consider the amount of coal reserves we have in this country
    and compare those to the amount of oil reserves they have in
    Saudi Arabia or Iraq, we are the Saudi Arabia of coal and we
    have more coal reserves maybe than any country in the world.
    Can one of you confirm that for me?
        Mr. Hewson. The other two are Russia and China and I do
    think we are No. 1 ahead of those. We are uniquely in our
    carbon fuels gifted with coal. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are gifted
    with oil and gas.
        Senator Carper. And North Dakota is gifted with wind and
    lignite.
        Mr. Chairman, it seems to me and it is kind of fortuitous
    that as we hold this hearing, we are literally taking up the
    debate on the energy bill almost at the same time. There are so
    many things we can do in the context of energy legislation.
    Part of that deals with renewable forms of energy, whether
    hydro or geothermal, solar or even biomass. The Dupont Company
    has come up with new technology that enables them to take the
    entire cornstalk and turn that into ethanol and to do so in a
    way that is so energy efficient they believe we will no longer
    need a tax subsidy to be able to compete with gasoline.
        Down in Brazil, they are doing a similar kind of thing with
    sugar cane which is exciting and encouraging.
        We talked earlier about natural gas production, being able
    to complete a pipeline from Alaska to get some of that natural
    gas to us and I think there is going to be a proposal to do a
    study to look offshore to see if there are some places that it
    makes sense to search for natural gas.
        I am a former Navy guy and I believe nuclear power has an
    appropriate role in providing some of our energy needs. I
    believe legislation coming to us supports expansion of nuclear
    power. We talked a bit about fuel cells. We have not talked too
    much about conservation. I think one of the damning things I
    have heard about the bill coming out of committee to us in the
    Senate on the conservation side is it just doesn't do that
    much. They focus a good deal on the production side but not
    very much on the conservation side, and little if anything on
    more efficient cars, trucks and vans, little if anything with
    respect to the air conditioners we will be using this summer
    and how to use a lot less electricity from more efficient air
    conditioning.
        I keep coming back to the matter of what can we do to
    incentivize the investment in clean coal technology, not just
    the R&D, but to encourage utilities and investors to put their
    money where their mouths are. We know we have the technology,
    we know it works. I think part of the challenge for us is how
    do we craft legislation where there is a 3-P or hopefully a 4-P
    bill that incentivizes the investment in that kind of
    technology.
        Mr. Bluestein talked a bit to that and I don't know if you
    have anything else you want to add but for me that is not the
    whole ball game, but it is a big part of it.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Carper, I can tell you, and I am
    not here to push Clear Skies, but I have it authoritatively
    from the utilities in our State and other utilities that if
    Clear Skies passed, they would move forward with clean coal
    technology, that the caps in that and the certainty of that
    would cause them to move forward with clean coal technology so
    we could burn our coal and also the advantage of developing
    clean coal technology is that you can either sell it or give it
    away to other places in the world because we know darned well
    that China and Russia have large supplies of coal. We know they
    are going to be burning that, either clean or burning and
    emitting into the environment and ultimately impact us
    environmentally and directly or indirectly in terms of our
    economy because of competing in the global marketplace.
        Senator Carper. Mr. Bluestein, I think I understood you to
    say in your testimony, talking about the effect of Clear Skies
    legislation on clean coal and willingness of investors to
    invest in clean coal facilities, that there would be some
    positive effect that would come from Clear Skies. Did you say
    that and could you compare the positive effect on the adoption
    of clean coal technology in a practical world from Clear Skies
    with the effect that might come out of legislation Senator
    Chafee, Senator Gregg and I have introduced?
        Mr. Bluestein. There is definitely a positive effect from
    either bill through providing certainty and flexibility. The
    cap and trade program provides a huge amount of flexibility to
    affected sources to try different technologies, have
    flexibility in compliance. Both of the bills, the one Senators
    Carper, Gregg and Chafee have introduced and Clear Skies
    provide flexibility and that is important for existing and new
    plants.
        The other way such a bill can affect future construction I
    think the biggest piece is through the allocation of
    allowances. There is something like $9 billion worth of
    allowances that are going to be distributed under this kind of
    system, $9 billion per year of allowances. That can have a big
    effect on choices that companies make.
        In the Clear Skies Act, all of those allowances go to old
    plants. Some people see that as a benefit for coal. It is not
    really, it is a benefit for existing plants. A lot happen to be
    coal plants but in terms of coal with a ``C'' the ability to
    develop new technologies, the ability to have coal as a
    continuing important part of our energy mix, we have to look to
    the future and that is why I think a system where allowances
    are periodically reallocated to all the plants including new
    plants provides an incentive to develop and build new coal
    plants and develop new coal technologies that are part of the
    mix I think we all agree we need.
        So I think that is the second piece that is very important
    and which is in the bill that Senators Carper, Chafee and Gregg
    have introduced.
        Senator Carper. I think that this has been a good hearing.
    I presume this is the last panel?
        Senator Voinovich. Yes, it is.
        Senator Carper. I would note one of our witnesses, I am not
    sure who, actually mentioned we can improve our efficiency in
    generating electricity by introducing more energy efficient
    coal-fired plants, by introducing more energy efficient nuclear
    plants. Someone also mentioned that we can save ourselves some
    natural gas by introducing the next generation of natural gas
    powered electric utilities. That is true too. Some of these
    plants are pretty old, aren't they, and rather inefficient?
        Mr. Bluestein. Yes, and to the extent that new gas
    generation replaces less efficient gas generation, it is
    reducing gas consumption.
        You mentioned efficiency. We can also allocate allowances
    to electric efficiency improvements so we can use that
    mechanism because it is a zero sum game. It is electricity that
    you generate or you don't and somehow it relates to the
    emissions you create or don't create. If we are going to have a
    market-based system, which is what the cap and trade program
    is, we ought to include all of the market and allow that market
    to function. The idea is the market is going to find the least
    cost way of meeting our emission goals, so we have to include
    everybody.
        I think the topic of efficiency has been mentioned several
    times and that includes end use efficiency. There are ways we
    can include that in the program and reap those benefits as
    well.
        Senator Carper. Good point. Thank you.
        Mr. Thumb. IF I could add to the question, you are right,
    when we do build combined cycle plants, they do displace steam
    generator plants. Basically, it takes about seven molecules in
    a combined cycle plant to produce the same amount of
    electricity as it takes 10 molecules inside a steam generator,
    the so-called efficiency effect. That efficiency effect because
    of the way this Nation evolved is highly concentrated in three
    areas, Texas, Florida and California.
        We are basically building between 1998 and about 2007,
    266,000 megawatts of new capacity of which about 70 percent of
    these new combined cycles, 184,000 megawatts. There is only
    125,000 megawatts of existing steam generator and except for
    the three units I note, we really aren't getting that
    efficiency effect. This is new gas, not that it isn't great,
    but I wanted to add it tends to be very regional specific
    because of the way this Nation evolved. It is never
    homogeneous.
        Those plants, basically those 60 percent plants beyond what
    we have right now, are located in other regions and that will
    be incremental gas demand.
        Senator Carper. It's been a good panel and a very good
    hearing. We are grateful to each of you for being here and
    sharing your thoughts and responding to our questions.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you very much.
        We stand adjourned.
        [Whereupon, at 11:55 a.m., the subcommittee was adjourned,
    to reconvene at the call of the chair.]
        [Additional statements submitted for the record follow:]

       Statement of the Honorable Kyle E. McSlarrow, Deputy Secretary of
                                     Energy

        Mr. Chairman, I am pleased to appear before you today to discuss
    the Administration's National Energy Policy and to discuss why we think
    Clear Skies is a critical component of the President's strategy to
    confront our energy and environmental challenges.
        Though it is often overlooked, the President's National Energy
    Policy directed the Administrator of the Environmental Protection
    Agency to work with Congress to propose legislation that would
    establish a flexible, market-based program to significantly reduce and
    cap emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and mercury from
    electric power generators. The President's National Energy Policy
    concluded that, as our energy needs grow, additional innovations would
    be necessary to continue improving our environmental conditions. The
    success of the Clean Air Act Acid Rain program in promoting innovation
    and emission reductions is well known especially by Members of this
    committee--and served as the template for the Clear Skies legislation
    now before this Committee.
        We are pleased that the Senate is now considering a comprehensive
    energy bill reported out of the Senate Energy committee, and commend
    Chairman Domenici and the members of his committee for acting so
    swiftly. And, we commend you, Mr. Chairman, and this committee for
    moving aggressively to consider the Clear Skies legislation.

    Introduction and Outlook
        Over the past century, we have witnessed the power of energy to
    drive global economic development. In the 1970's, we learned firsthand
    how energy shortages and resulting high prices can compromise economic
    growth and the quality of life to which Americans have grown
    accustomed. Clearly, the availability of reliable, affordable energy is
    critical to sustained economic growth.
        We have a series of long-term energy challenges that require action
    now. These challenges are present along the entire energy continuum,
    affecting crude oil, refinery products, natural gas, electricity
    generation and transmission, the environment, and economic growth.

    The Nation's Power Industry
        To understand the need for Clear Skies, it is important to
    understand the current make-up of the Nation's electric power industry.
    The U.S. power-generating sector remains the envy of the world. On any
    given day, approximately 5,000 generating plants can make available up
    to 900,000 megawatts of electricity for virtually every home and
    business in the country. Fossil fuels supply about 70 percent of the
    Nation's requirements for electricity generation. Coal, alone, accounts
    for more than 50 percent of the electricity Americans consume.
    Primarily because of the power sector's use of abundant supplies of
    American coal and natural gas, consumers in the United States benefit
    from some of the lowest cost electricity of any free market economy.
    U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel
        America's economic progress and global competitiveness have
    benefited greatly from this low cost electricity. Electricity is an
    essential part of America's modern economy. While the Nation has made
    dramatic progress in ``decoupling'' overall energy consumption from
    economic growth, increased economic activity remains closely linked to
    the availability of affordable electric power and is likely to remain
    so well into the future.
        The Nation's demand for electricity is projected to grow
    significantly over the next 22 years. Between now and 2025, the United
    States will likely have to add between 446,000 and 656,000 megawatts of
    new generating capacity to meet growing demand. This is equivalent to
    adding the entire power generation sectors of Germany and Japan,
    combined, to the U.S. power grid. Concurrent with this dramatic and
    capital intensive expansion of the Nation's power fleet, power
    generators will also be called upon to make new investments in
    pollution control technologies to meet tightening environmental
    standards. Over the past 25 years, America's electricity utility
    industry has invested billions of dollars in advanced technologies to
    improve the quality of our air. Each year, a substantial portion of
    normal plant operations costs again amounting to several billions of
    dollars a year are associated with operating installed technologies
    that reduce air emissions.
        The investment has returned dividends. By installing new
    technologies to capture tiny particles of fly ash, the power industry
    has significantly improved air quality by dramatically reducing
    particulate matter. The power industry has also installed sulfur
    dioxide controls on more than 90,000 megawatts of capacity as part of a
    successful effort that has cut SO2 emissions substantially
    since 1970. Most of the nation's coal-fired plants have also installed
    nitrogen oxide controls that have helped make initial NOx reductions.
    In short, advanced technology given the time to mature and be deployed
    can be effective.
        Technological improvements have permitted the Nation's power sector
    to continue generating relatively low cost power and, at the same time,
    use the energy resources America has in most abundance. America's use
    of coal, for example, has actually tripled since 1970 even as our air
    has become cleaner. Advanced technology also offers a pathway toward
    the prospects of achieving even greater reductions in air pollutants in
    the future.
        At this point, let me review long-term energy trends with a focus
    on natural gas and coal which should help illustrate our challenges. My
    comments here are based on analyses prepared by the Department of
    Energy's independent analytical arm, the Energy Information
    Administration, in its Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO 2003). All
    statistics are based on EIA's reference case scenario for the year
    2025, which assumes current laws and regulations, including the Eastern
    U.S ozone SIP call, but not future regulations, such as those to
    implement the new Clean Air Act ozone and particulate matter standards
    or the mercury MACT standard.
        The reference case also assumes continued improvement in energy
    consuming and producing technologies, consistent with historic trends.

    Natural Gas Trends
        The natural gas share of electricity generation is projected to
    increase from 17 percent in 2001 to 30 percent in 2025. By 2025, total
    natural gas consumption is expected to increase to almost 35 trillion
    cubic feet, which will amount to 26 percent of U.S. delivered energy
    consumption. Industrial consumption the largest natural gas-consuming
    sector--is expected to increase by 3.4 trillion cubic feet over the
    forecast, driven primarily by economic growth. Combined consumption in
    the residential and commercial sectors is projected to increase by 2.6
    trillion cubic feet between 2001 and 2025, driven by increasing
    population and healthy economic growth, and accompanied by gradually
    rising prices in real terms. Natural gas remains the overwhelming
    choice for home heating throughout the forecast period. Natural gas
    consumption in the generation sector doubles by 2025 due to lower
    capital costs, higher efficiencies, lower construction lead times, and
    lower emissions.
        In the short term, domestic natural gas prices are expected to
    remain high in 2003 and are at risk for significant volatility through
    at least the next 12 to 18 months. EIA estimates that the current
    natural gas storage level is the lowest on record for this point in the
    annual cycle. As long as temperatures remain at or below normal this
    summer, natural gas storage levels should rise sharply over the coming
    months. But if this summer is hotter than normal, natural gas prices
    would jump as cooling demand would compete with the need to build
    storage inventories. A large rebound in the economy, poor results from
    the ongoing increase in natural gas drilling, or a continued tight oil
    market might also spur volatility.
        On that note, drilling for natural gas expected to increase
    substantially, but a fourth U.S. LNG terminal is expected to open this
    year at Cove Point, Maryland, and a Kern River Pipeline extension from
    the Rockies to the West Coast opened earlier this month--greatly
    increasing the capacity to move gas from a key producing area. In
        In 2004, declining oil prices should ease natural gas prices, and
    strong natural gas drilling should increase productive capacity through
    the end of the year.
        Domestic gas production is expected to increase more slowly than
    consumption over the long-term forecast, rising from 19.4 trillion
    cubic feet in 2001 to 26.8 trillion cubic feet in 2025. The national
    average wellhead price is projected to reach $3.90 per thousand cubic
    feet, in 2001 dollars, by 2025.
        Increased U.S. natural gas production through 2025 is projected to
    come primarily from unconventional sources and from Alaska.
    Unconventional gas production increases by 4.1 trillion cubic feet over
    the forecast period--more than any other source, largely because of
    expanded tight sandstone gas production in the Rocky Mountain region.
    Annual production from unconventional sources is expected to account
    for 36 percent of production in 2025, compared to 28 percent today. An
    Alaska natural gas pipeline is projected to begin flowing gas to the
    lower 48 States in 2021, reaching 4.5 billion cubic feet per day in
    2023, with further expansion beginning in 2025. In 2025, total Alaskan
    gas production is projected to be 2.6 trillion cubic feet.
        Conventional onshore non-associated production is projected to
    increase by 1.2 trillion cubic feet over the forecast, driven by
    technological improvements and rising natural gas prices. However, its
    share of total production declines from 34 percent in 2001 to 29
    percent by 2025. Non-associated offshore production adds 560 billion
    cubic feet, with increased drilling activity in deep waters; however,
    its share of total U.S. production declines from 22 percent in 2001 to
    18 percent by 2025. Associated dissolved production declines by 800
    billion cubic feet, consistent with a projected decline in crude oil
    production. Lower 48 associated-dissolved natural gas is projected to
    account for 8 percent of U.S. natural gas production in 2025, compared
    with 15 percent in 2001.
        A key question facing producers and policymakers today is whether
    natural gas resources in the mature onshore lower 48 States have been
    exploited to a point at which lower discoveries per well eliminate the
    possibility of increasing--or even maintaining--current production
    levels at reasonable cost. Depletion has been counterbalanced
    historically by improvements in technology that have allowed gas
    resources to be discovered more efficiently and developed less
    expensively, have extended the economic life of existing fields, and
    have allowed natural gas to be produced from resources that previously
    were too costly to develop. In EIA's projection, technological progress
    for both conventional and unconventional recovery is expected to
    continue to enhance exploration and reduce costs. However, there is a
    significant debate within the industry itself as to whether this will
    occur.
        The difference between U.S. natural gas production and consumption
    is net imports. Net imports of natural gas, primarily from Canada, are
    projected to increase from 3.6 trillion cubic feet in 2001 to 7.8
    trillion cubic feet in 2025. Net imports contributed 16 percent to
    total natural gas supply in 2001, compared to an expected 22 percent in
    2025. Almost half of the increase in U.S. imports is expected to come
    from liquefied natural gas (LNG). By 2025, EIA expects expansion at the
    four existing terminals and construction of three new LNG terminals.
        Growth in pipeline imports from Canada partly depends on the
    completion of the MacKenzie Delta pipeline, which is expected to be
    completed in 2016 and expanded in 2023. Net imports from Canada are
    projected to provide 15 percent of total U.S. supply in 2025, about the
    same as in 2001. Mexico is projected to go from a net importer of U.S.
    natural gas to a net exporter in 2020, as an LNG facility begins
    operating in Baja California, Mexico, in 2019, predominantly serving
    the California market. By 2025, the United States is expected to import
    about 350 billion cubic feet of natural gas from Mexico per year.

    Coal Trends
        The share of electricity generated from coal is projected to
    decline from 52 percent in 2001 to 47 percent in 2025 as a more
    competitive electricity industry invests in less capital-intensive and
    more efficient natural gas generation technologies. Nonetheless, coal
    remains the primary fuel for electricity generation through 2025, and
    EIA projects that 74 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity
    will be constructed between 2001 and 2025.
        EIA's analysis here does not incorporate a projection of several
    Clean Air Act programs that could have a significant impact on the use
    of coal such as the mercury MACT. Although this rule has not been
    proposed, based on requirements of the Clean Air Act it is designed to
    require the control of mercury on a source by source basis by the end
    of 2007, which could be very costly and cause an even greater decline
    in the share of electricity generated by coal.
        EIA projects growing domestic consumption over the forecast
    horizon, and projects a simultaneous reduction in real coal prices to
    generators by approximately 12 percent by 2025. Average annual coal
    consumption is projected to increase by 1.3 percent per year between
    2001 and 2025. As domestic coal demand grows, U.S. coal production is
    projected to increase at an average rate of 1.0 percent per year.
        The decline in prices is driven by the expectation of continued
    improvements in labor productivity, and the continued market expansion
    of western coal, which has a lower minemouth price than eastern coals.
    As western production makes further inroads into markets traditionally
    supplied by eastern coal, the average heat content of the coals
    produced and consumed will drop as well, reflecting the lower thermal
    content per ton of western than eastern coals.

    President Bush's National Energy Policy
        We long ago ceased to fully provide for our petroleum needs
    domestically, and though most of our current natural gas demand can be
    met with North American production, the trend here is also toward a
    greater share for imported natural gas. And coal, our most abundant
    energy resource, is actually projected to reduce its percentage share
    of electricity generation.
        We are often at the mercy of events and decisions over which we
    have often limited and sometimes no control. When winters and summers
    are mild; when all refineries or pipelines are online; when supply from
    abroad is abundant and reliable; when prices are reasonable, we do not
    feel this dependency. However, when almost any one of these factors
    breaks down, markets react instantly, and we face the higher prices and
    volatility that have become by now an almost certain cyclical
    phenomenon.
        These trends are a concern.
        President Bush recognized that to prevent these problems from
    becoming a permanent, recurring feature of American life, we needed a
    long-term plan for energy security that would promote reliable,
    affordable and environmentally sound energy for the future.
        President Bush's National Energy Policy, released in May, 2001,
    reflected a few, fundamental principles. First, we need to maintain a
    diversity of fuels from a multiplicity of sources. Second, we should
    seek opportunities for increased investment, trade, exploration and
    development, which are increasing every year, far beyond the
    traditional markets of the last 50 years. And third, we should focus on
    research and development on initiatives that seek long-term solutions
    to our energy challenges, as we have done with energy efficiency,
    renewables, hydrogen, fusion, and nuclear energy, as well as the
    recently announced zero-emission FutureGen coal project.
        While these initiatives hold enormous promise for the future, we
    recognize the need for immediate actions to address the nation's
    growing energy demand. Clear Skies figures prominently on this list.
    I'd like to mention just a few of the actions currently underway,
    particularly those focused on ensuring adequate supplies of natural gas
    and electricity.
        To increase and diversify domestic supplies of natural gas, the
    Administration, among other actions, has streamlined the process by
    which permits are granted for important energy projects, such as
    pipelines and refineries, and accelerated the leasing of non-restricted
    Federal lands where environmentally appropriate.
        The Administration is encouraging new gas well investment by
    allowing for access to high quality resources and growth in pipeline
    delivery capability. We recognize that recoverable resources tend to be
    more difficult to develop and produce because the U.S. is a mature
    producing area. This increases ultimate supply costs, which requires
    ever increasing prices to be economically viable. A number of
    locations, such as portions of the Rocky Mountain area and the eastern
    Gulf of Mexico, are currently unavailable to exploration and
    development even though they are expected to contain substantial
    volumes of recoverable natural gas.
        Interstate pipelines have been expanding delivery capacity, but
    additional expansions are needed to satisfy expected market growth. In
    2002, 54 interstate pipeline projects were completed, adding about 12.8
    billion cubic feet of capacity per day throughout the U.S., and
    proposals for expansions in 2003 through 2005 have been announced for a
    number of pipelines. The gas pipeline network has grown extensively
    over the past decade to meet the increasing demand for gas and to
    accommodate diversified gas sources. Regulatory lags in obtaining
    authorization for expansions of pipeline capacity are being addressed
    by initiatives at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) aimed
    at streamlining this approval process.
        The Administration also strongly supports the construction of a
    commercially viable Alaska natural gas pipeline as a critical part of
    our energy security portfolio.
        The National Energy Policy also highlighted the growing need for
    attention to the nation's electricity markets and infrastructure. The
    Administration's overarching goal is to ensure that Americans have
    abundant, affordable, clean and secure electricity supplies, and we
    strongly believe that Clear Skies is a key component of meeting this
    goal, as is a comprehensive energy bill that includes a sound
    electricity title to modernize our Nation's antiquated wholesale
    electricity laws.
        The Administration believes that there really is only one viable
    policy choice: we must complete the transition to effective competition
    in wholesale power markets.
        Well-functioning markets will, we believe, lead to lower costs for
    consumers and businesses. But there is more than simply the benefit of
    lower prices. A well-functioning market brings its own rewards. As
    confidence is gained that the system is reliable and capable of coping
    with high-demand for electricity, there will increasingly be less need
    for restrictive and prescriptive regulation. And that is the point when
    much-needed investment is likely to be attracted--investment in new
    technologies, and in improved generation and transmission facilities
    that produce additional energy and environmental benefits.
        When the opposite is true when uncertainty reigns, when reliability
    is questioned, when prices seem detached from market forces investment
    vanishes.
        The present uncertainty in the wholesale electricity market is not
    simply affected by policy choices that center on transmission assets
    and market designs. The uncertainty extends to the generation of
    electricity itself. That is why it is important to provide greater
    regulatory certainty about the kinds of investment choices that the
    generating industry will have to make over the next two decades.
        We believe that the President's Clear Skies proposal does just
    that.

    S. 485, Clear Skies Act of 2003
        In 2000, 39 percent of the total energy consumed in the U.S. was
    for power generation. Since 1975, total U.S. energy use has grown by
    about 1.1 percent per year, while GDP and electricity consumption have
    grown by nearly 3 percent per year. We project future electricity
    growth to be somewhat less, below 2 percent per year, but it is clear
    that electricity is either the fuel of choice or fuel of necessity for
    many applications.
        Our electric power is among the lowest in cost of any free market
    society. Low cost electricity is part of America's competitive edge in
    international markets. Cheap power translates to prosperity and
    available resources to overcome problems in many areas unrelated to
    energy but essential to our quality of life. A major reason that
    electricity in the U.S. is relatively inexpensive is that roughly one-
    half of our generation comes from coal.
        S. 485, the Clear Skies Act of 2003, is a multi-pollutant, market-
    based cap and trade program that will reduce power plant emissions of
    sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and mercury by
    approximately 70 percent from today's levels--and do it faster, with
    more certainty, and at less cost to American consumers than would
    current law.
        Flexibility of compliance choices, maintenance of fuel diversity,
    and the cost savings passed on to consumers through lower electricity
    prices are among the benefits of the approach taken in Clear Skies,
    particularly when compared with other proposals that support more
    stringent targets, shorter compliance periods, or command and control
    regulatory approaches. The cap-and-trade system of emission reductions
    used in S. 485 should translate into reduced impacts on fuel markets in
    particular, coal and gas than equivalent emission reductions achieved
    through other approaches.
        The Clear Skies Act substantially expands one of the most
    successful Clean Air Act programs the Acid Rain Program and reduces the
    need to rely on complex and less efficient programs. Power plants would
    be allowed to choose the pollution reduction strategy that best meets
    their needs (e.g., installing pollution control equipment, switching to
    lower sulfur or mercury coals, buying excess allowances from plants
    that have reduced their emissions beyond required levels). And like the
    Acid Rain program, Clear Skies includes banking provisions, enabling
    companies to save unused allowances for future use. The result would be
    significant nationwide human health and environmental benefits;
    certainty for industry, States and citizens; energy security; and
    continuing low costs to consumers.
        S. 485 establishes a coordinated timeline for control of major
    emissions that provides adequate time to attract investment funds and
    avoids premature retirement of working capital. The patchwork of
    existing and soon-to-be-implemented regulations under the Clean Air
    Act, coupled with the delays bred by continuous litigation over them,
    has created enormous uncertainty for utilities, co-ops, and municipal
    generators. This uncertainty has curtailed investments in technology
    that would reduce emissions at existing plants and prevented numerous
    new facilities from coming online. Clear Skies provides industry with
    the time needed to attract capital necessary to reduce emissions
    without jeopardizing energy security.

    Energy Impacts of Clear Skies
        It is difficult to quantify what the cost or energy impacts will be
    if multipollutant legislation is not enacted. The EIA ``baseline''
    includes all future legislation and regulations that have been
    specified, but does not include regulations that have not yet been
    promulgated. We know that in the absence of S. 485, mercury regulations
    will be promulgated by December 2004. But we do not know what those
    regulations will require; that knowledge will come only after a lengthy
    rulemaking process. We can anticipate that additional reductions in
    SO2 and NOx will be required to attain ambient air quality
    standards for fine particulate matter. But we do not know what those
    regulations will be. We can anticipate additional regulations to reduce
    regional haze, but again, we do not know what those regulations will
    require.
        What we should be concerned with is this: uncertainty, delay, and
    litigation are not likely to produce greater environmental benefits;
    they instead are likely to lead to more costly solutions, and they risk
    affecting the energy fuel mix in ways that are unwarranted and
    unforeseen.
        Although we have not contrasted Clear Skies to this unknown
    regulatory future, we have compared it to a future predicated on
    current control programs. Under Clear Skies, natural gas consumption,
    which is projected to increase from 23 to 35 trillion cubic feet of gas
    in our baseline projection to 2025, increases to 36 trillion cubic feet
    per year in 2025. However, we do not project that a significant change
    in natural gas supply is needed due to the implementation of Clear
    Skies. Wellhead natural gas prices follow the baseline pattern, after
    decreasing from the unusually high prices that occurred in 2001.
        Clear Skies helps maintain coal as an important fuel source,
    thereby avoiding excessive pressure on natural gas prices. In our
    baseline projection, coal consumption would increase about 38 percent
    through 2025. Under S. 485, we project approximately a 26 percent
    increase.
        EIA projects that electricity prices will be lower throughout the
    projection period than in 2001, for both the baseline scenario and
    under S. 485. The effect of the emission reductions is roughly a 0.3
    cent per kilowatt-hour price increase above the baseline in 2025.
        One of the concerns we have is in the ever-increasing reliance on
    natural gas for generation of electricity. As I have noted previously,
    this is primarily a function of efficiency and costs, but because our
    marginal supply of natural gas will increasingly come from imported LNG
    we should be concerned that we not place too much stress on natural gas
    supply by forcing a level of fuel switching from coal to gas that leads
    to higher volatility and higher prices. Natural gas supply as a low-
    cost and reliable source of electricity is not automatic one has only
    to witness the winters of 2000-2001, and 2002-2003 to see the point.
        In both the near and long term, the price of a commodity like
    natural gas is determined by the interaction of supply and demand.
    However, the determinants of supply and demand in the near term can be
    quite different than the factors that determine prices in the long
    term. In the near term, factors such as weather related increases in
    demand, storage levels, productive capacity at the wellhead, and
    disruptions in supply lines can be paramount because of the difficulty
    of quickly increasing the number of producing wells. Long-term market
    conditions, however, depend more on such factors as
          the ability of markets to respond to price increases with
    adequate investments in new wells;
          continuing availability of alternative fuels for
    generation;
          a viable market for imported gas;
          the continued development of new technologies; and
          emissions reductions required under future regulation
        The difference in what affects natural gas prices in the near term
    versus long term has important policy implications. We have to
    recognize that in the short run it is hard to do much about natural gas
    supply. From the time natural gas prices spike, the industry rule of
    thumb is that it takes 6-18 months for production to increase. And,
    unlike oil, there is currently no large international spot market in
    liquefied natural gas to moderate gas supply scarcity.
        The elasticity of natural gas demand plays a significant role in
    price volatility. Because many users cannot switch to alternative fuels
    quickly, demand tends to be more inelastic in the short run. Inelastic
    demand means that small changes in demand lead to significantly higher
    prices than under less inelastic demand. Demand becomes less elastic as
    electric generators or industrial users lose their ability to switch to
    another fuel or as any user loses the ability to reduce consumption in
    response to higher prices.
        It is, therefore, critically important that we maintain a balanced
    diversity of fuels to provide low-cost and abundant electricity. And
    the key to this is that we not assume that all policy objectives can
    simply be achieved with unlimited reliance on natural gas.

    The Role of Research
        One of DOE's fundamental missions is the advancement of energy-
    related technology. I would be remiss if I did not emphasize again that
    the projections I have presented today assume only a continuation of
    historic trends in technology evolution. We have the ability to change
    those trends through dramatic technology improvements. We intend to do
    exactly that.
        The President has launched a suite of relevant technology
    initiatives: FreedomCAR and the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative (the hydrogen/
    fuel cell vehicle and infrastructure program), FutureGen (a program to
    develop a zero-emission coal-based power plant, coproducing low-cost
    hydrogen and sequestering CO2), and fusion electric power
    plants. Success in these areas will dramatically change the energy,
    economic, and environmental future of the Nation.
        The future role of coal in our energy mix may also be highly
    sensitive to the success we have in our program to improve Integrated
    Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) technology, an inherently clean way
    to produce power from coal. This technology has already been
    demonstrated at commercial scale, but additional support is being
    provided by DOE to enhance its efficiency, reduce technological risk,
    and drive down capital costs. In addition, as I mentioned earlier, we
    are also pursuing R&D targeted specifically on one of the tougher
    challenges in Clear Skies mercury control.

    Conclusion
        In conclusion, we believe that Clears Skies, which provides a range
    of benefits improved health, cleaner air, and economic efficiency--is
    the best approach to address our dual energy and environmental
    challenges. Clear Skies avoids the more serious economic consequences
    of other approaches to cleaner air and provides market-based
    flexibility to the energy sector. Clear Skies, combined with our many
    other efforts to develop new, reliable, and secure sources of energy,
    will deliver significant environmental protection. It will help us to
    achieve our national goal of abundant, affordable, and clean sources of
    energy by maintaining fuel diversity and by providing greater
    regulatory certainty.

                                   __________
      Statement of Jim Krimmel, President, Zaclon, Inc., Chairman of the
                     Board, Ohio Manufacturers' Association

        Chairman Voinovich and members of the Senate Subcommittee on Clean
    Air, Climate Change, and Nuclear Safety, good morning and thank you for
    the opportunity to testify today.
        My name is Jim Krimmel and I am President of Zaclon, Incorporated.
        My company, which is located in Cleveland, Ohio, is a manufacturer
    of both specialty and basic chemicals with wide applications and
    worldwide sales. Currently, we are the largest producer of galvanizing
    fluxes in the world, and sell products in 19 countries. But we're a
    small company, with only 35 employees and under $12,000,000 in annual
    revenues. Our primary competitors are domestic, European, and
    increasingly Asian.
        I am also the current Chairman of the Board of Directors for the
    Ohio Manufacturers' Association. The OMA, with its' 2500 member
    companies is the voice of manufacturing in Ohio the strength of Ohio's
    economy.
        Today, as job providers in Ohio, manufacturers employ over a
    million people directly and countless million others in the service,
    finance and other industries employed indirectly by Ohio's
    manufacturing companies.
        As you know, Ohio is an energy intensive state that ranks in the
    top five nationwide in both commercial and residential energy
    consumption.
        To maintain a competitive advantage in today's tough global
    marketplace, it is essential that Zaclon and Ohio's other manufacturers
    have access to dependable, low cost energy sources. But in recent
    years, energy, and more specifically natural gas, has been anything but
    low cost. And fuel switching related to compliance with ever tightening
    air regulations coupled with inadequate exploration and drilling for
    natural gas is a major factor in this unprecedented run-up and
    volatility in natural gas prices. As the manufacturing economy improves
    and as more fuel switching occurs, the problem will only get worse. The
    high price and volatility of natural gas has threatened and continues
    to threaten the very existence of small and medium sized manufacturers
    like Zaclon. In that respect, my company's experiences are a good
    illustration. The charts that I've included with my testimony tell the
    story.
        This first graph shows Zaclon's Energy/Utility Costs by medium over
    the past 15 years. It demonstrates both the magnitude and volatility of
    expenditures that my company has faced during that time. By itself,
    this chart is interesting enough in that it shows a 63 percent increase
    in natural gas costs from 1999 to 2002. The run-up in natural gas
    prices back in 2001 nearly put us out of business despite imposing an
    energy surcharge on our customers.
        What is more revealing, however, is this next graph which
    superimposes Zaclon's product sales on the energy cost numbers over the
    past 10 year period.
        This combination of increasing energy costs with declining sales
    revenues is unsustainable for any length of time. We are running out of
    other cost reduction opportunities, and we really can't pass the
    increases on to our customers without giving up a significant share of
    the U.S. market to our overseas competitors.
        To further emphasize the impact of escalating natural gas prices on
    Zaclon, the next two pie charts show a comparison of my company's total
    cost structure between the most recent year 2002--and 1999 before the
    run up of natural gas costs.
        As you can see energy costs have increased from 10 percent in 1999,
    which was pretty typical for years before 1999, to 15 percent in 2002.
    And what's causing this problem is natural gas price. The final chart
    shows Zaclon's delivered cost per MCF of natural gas for a 15-year
    period.
        You can see that except for predictable seasonal swings, the price
    of natural gas was stable until recent years. Since that time it is
    high and unstable. This makes running our business very difficult, and
    often unprofitable. Soaring energy costs combined with a tough global
    marketplace represent a serious threat to Zaclon's existence.
        In closing, I strongly urge you to consider carefully the impact of
    what you do in this committee on the competitiveness of companies like
    Zaclon. Any additional legislation that encourages fuel switching to
    natural gas without addressing the supply side of the equation could
    very well put me out of business.
        Thank you for the opportunity to testify here today.
        I would be happy to answer any questions.
                                   __________
                  Statement of Richard A. Metz, UNIMARK L.L.C.

        Natural Gas is the most environmentally friendly fossil fuel. On
    the other hand, it is a fuel which requires special handling in order
    to deliver it from the supply source to the consumer. Currently, it is
    moved through pipelines, which limits the supply source to production
    areas that are accessible to pipelines.\1\ This makes the United States
    primarily dependent upon supply sources in North America.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \1\For 2002 LNG imports represented 1.1 percent of the total U.S.
    consumption.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Although the supply of gas has been adequate to meet the needs of
    consumers over the past 25 years, the free market price of gas today
    reflects the tightening of supply/demand equation. First, the attached
    graph (Exhibit ``A'', Gas Production in the United States) reflects the
    daily average volume of gas (Dry Gas) produced in the United States
    over the past 15 years.\2\ As you can see over this period, summer
    curtailment of gas is now nonexistent.\3\ Since 1996 annual gas
    production has been at more than 97 percent of peak capacity. No
    additional supply exists at this time to take on additional demand.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \2\Data source EIA Natural Gas Monthly
         \3\Exhibit ``B'' details the same information in tabular form.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        There have been periods when consumer demand exceeds the supplier's
    ability to meet that demand. When this occurs, the price of gas begins
    to increase until the price gets to a level that an existing consumer
    ceases to consume gas. This process repeats itself until the demand
    level is in equilibrium with supply. The industry nomenclature for this
    process is ``Demand Destruction.'' The loss of existing demand hurts
    the industry affected, the suppliers, and ultimately the overall U.S.
    economy. The attached graph\4\ (Exhibit ``C'') shows that since 2000
    the price of gas has had periods of dramatic increases. This is another
    point on the curve which demonstrates that supply/demand balance for
    gas is very tight.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \4\Exhibit ``C'' demonstrates the historic value of the ``Gas
    Futures 12 Mo. Forward Average'' as traded on the NYMEX.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Finally, the winter space heating requirements of the residential
    and commercial sectors are major consumers of gas\5\ and the
    consumption rate is directly tied to the winter temperatures.\6\ On a
    cold day consumption can exceed 90 BCF. At the same time the U.S.
    production and Canadian imports are approximately 62 BCF per day. In
    order to meet this additional demand, stored gas must be withdrawn to
    meet the shortfall. Exhibit ``D'' provides a historical perspective of
    the withdrawal and injection into storage. The storage level for the
    winter season of 2002-2003, although starting at a normal level, was
    drawn down beyond the level of the prior 4 years. The first thought is:
    the past winter was colder than normal. It wasn't. Exhibit ``E'' shows
    the cumulative Heating Degree Days\7\ for a normal winter and for the
    past winter. The past winter, although colder than most of the recent
    winters, was still 4 percent warmer than normal. Therefore, the current
    low storage level can't be attributed to an abnormally cold winter.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \5\Represent over 43 percent of total gas consumption.
         \6\The demand for gas by these two sectors varies such that the
    average annual consumption for 2002 was only 55 percent of the peak
    monthly usage.
         \7\A Heating Degree Day is a day in when the average of the high &
    low temperature is less than 65 F. For example, if the high and low on
    a day is 50 F and 20 F the average is 35 F, resulting in a 30 Heating
    Degree Day, (30 = 65 F-35 F).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        When the winter is over and storage is depleted, the entities
    supplying gas to the residential and commercial customers have to
    refill storage (fill season) in order to meet the winter demand again
    next year. As things now stand (April 25, 2003), it will take an
    average storage injection rate of 12.7 BCF per day during the remainder
    of the fill season to get back to the storage level that existed last
    year at the beginning of winter. This compares to the average fill rate
    for the prior 5 years of 9.2 BCF per day. This increase in storage
    demand of 3.5 BCF per day has to come from somewhere. At the current
    time it can't come from the supply side, so it has to come out of
    existing demand and is done so, as stated earlier, by the price of gas
    increasing to the point where an existing consumer can't afford to burn
    gas and, either shuts in its facility, or switches to an alternate
    energy source.
        If the government then mandates that electric generators have to
    reduce their emissions (quick fix is replacement of coal fired
    generators with gas fired ones) this will add additional demand to the
    supply/demand equation and result in higher prices.
        The other side of the equation is that higher prices should lead to
    additional supply, either through additional drilling or increased
    imports. Although increased imports (LNG) is the hot buzz word for
    additional gas supplies it will be a long and slow process for LNG to
    have a meaningful impact. This results in additional supplies having to
    come from drilling. It is a time consuming process to find and develop
    additional supplies. It is even harder when the government has declared
    many onshore and offshore areas off limits for drilling. The producing
    sector will fight the good fight, but it is much harder to prevail with
    one hand tied behind its back.
        The bottom line is additional stress on the supply of natural gas
    will lead to economic displacement of industry which can't afford to
    pay higher prices and still be competitive. I am confident that the
    producing industry can meet the challenge of supplying gas to the
    consumers, but it will have to be at higher prices. These prices will
    have to be even higher if areas of this country are off limits to
    exploration.

                                   __________
                 Statement of Steve Thumb, Energy Ventures Inc.

    Executive Summary
        The U.S. natural gas supply sector is currently being challenged to
    meet the nation's demand for natural gas. This has caused natural gas
    prices to increase to record levels and significant demand destruction
    within the non-electric sectors for natural gas demand. The primary
    reason for this phenomenon is that U.S. gas production has been
    declining for each of the last six quarters. The cumulative effect of
    this decline has been to reduce U.S. gas production approximately 3.5
    BCFD, or 6 percent. This decline in U.S. gas production is occurring
    throughout the Nation, as five of the seven major supply areas in the
    U.S. are in decline.
        To date the greatest degree of demand destruction has occurred
    within the industrial sector, where the resulting high gas prices have
    caused a number of firms to declare bankruptcy and other firms to idle
    capacity. Both of these events have had an adverse effect on the U.S.
    economy. To date, total demand destruction within the industrial sector
    equates to approximately 5.5 BCFD, or 26 percent of total industrial
    sector gas demand. Higher gas prices also have affected the residential
    sector, as gas supply costs for this sector have increased
    approximately $17 billion from the 5 year average for the late 1990's.
        This challenge for the U.S. gas supply sector will continue over
    the intermediate term, as U.S. production levels are projected to
    continue to decline for some time, primarily because of the limited
    increase in gas-directed drilling activity despite record gas prices.
    One of the major reasons for the limited increase in drilling activity
    is the limitations the industry faces in gaining access to prospective
    acreage as a result of environmental restrictions and moratoria. The
    potential reserves that are off limits because of these restrictions,
    which are increasing rather than decreasing, has been estimated by
    industry sources at between 200 and 450 TCF. Another significant reason
    for the limited increase in gas-directed drilling activity is the lack
    of scale for prospective exploration and development activity. Even
    though undiscovered reserves exist, many of these reserves are
    contained in a series of relatively small plays. Majors and large
    independents need large reserve plays in order to effectively use their
    staffs, impact their current production levels and effectively allocate
    capital. Relying on smaller independents to develop these smaller
    reserve plays has reached a point of diminishing returns because of the
    downsizing of the U.S. exploration and production industry.
        As a result of these and other factors, the industry will be
    challenged to maintain, let alone increase, production levels from
    traditional supply areas. Instead, the industry will have to rely on a
    series of emerging sources of gas supply to fill any gap between supply
    and demand. However, it will be an extended period of time before these
    emerging sources of supply are able to make a significant contribution
    to the U.S. supply sector. As a result, any acceleration in U.S. gas
    demand requirements only will exacerbate the challenge for the U.S.
    supply sector and lengthen the period of high gas prices and further
    demand destruction in other sectors.
        With respect to these emerging sources of supply, which include
    deep reserves below 15,000 feet, the complex subsalt play, reserves
    offshore Eastern Canada, frontier coalbed methane basins, new LNG
    terminals and reserves from the Arctic areas of both Canada and the
    U.S., the challenge and extended timeframe for the industry to develop
    these highly complex and very capital intensive sources of supply
    cannot be emphasized enough. For example, despite a number of industry
    announcements concerning possible new LNG terminals, the FERC has
    granted only one certificate for a new terminal and only one other
    project has applied for a certificate. With respect to the potential
    for Arctic gas supplies the earliest date for a completion of a
    pipeline to deliver these supplies is approximately 2009 and these
    supplies will be from Canada's MacKenzie Delta. Arctic gas supplies
    from the Prudhoe Bay will not be available until 2013 at the earliest.
    To place the potential of these massive supply projects in perspective,
    the initial combined capacity of these two Arctic pipelines, net of the
    incremental gas demand requirements for Canada's heavy oil sands
    developments, will only be 1.3 BCFD, or 475 BCF per year, greater than
    the decline in U.S. production over the last six quarters.
        One of the significant impacts of the proposed increases in clean
    air requirements is that it will cause coal-fired generation to be
    reduced. A significant portion of this decline in coal-fired generation
    will need to be made up by additional gas-fired generation. This higher
    level of gas-fired generation will increase natural gas demand
    requirements within the electric sector, which will further exacerbate
    the challenge to the U.S. gas supply sector. This increasing dependence
    of the electric sector on gas-fried generation is most evident in the
    recent experience of the industry. Since 1996 gas demand within the
    electric sector has increased approximately 4.7 BCFD, or 45 percent.
    This is one of the major reasons for the current challenge within the
    U.S. gas supply sector.
        Of particular concern is both the acceleration of the target dates
    for the proposed changes in clean air requirements and the increases in
    the levels of emission reductions contained in some proposed
    initiatives. Accelerating the time line for these changes in clean air
    requirements will represent a significant challenge for the U.S. gas
    supply sector, as it is improbable that the time line for the large,
    complex and expensive emerging sources of gas supply required to meet
    future demand increases can be accelerated. In fact, the more probable
    scenario is that there will be delays in the time lines for some of
    these emerging sources of supply, which has been the case for offshore
    Eastern Canada.
        Similarly, increasing the levels of emission reductions will cause
    an even greater reduction in coal-fired generation and increases in
    both gas-fired generation and gas demand within the electric sector.
    This will only heighten the challenge for the gas supply sector. Of
    particular concern are the carbon dioxide limitations, since the power
    industry has no viable control options and must rely totally upon
    switching generation to lower carbon containing fuels, of which the
    most significant is natural gas. Carbon dioxide limits, because they
    place an effective cap on fossil fuel generation, significantly
    increase the challenge for the U.S. gas supply sector.
        Of the various Clean Air Act initiatives currently being considered
    S 366 (Clean Power Act of 2003) and S 843 (Clean Air Planning Act of
    2003), with their accelerated time tables for emission reductions and
    their large emission reduction requirements, particularly their
    CO2 emission reduction requirements, would represent the
    greatest challenge for the U.S. gas supply sector. With respect to S
    485 (Clear Skies Act of 2003) it would also present a challenge for the
    U.S. gas supply sector. However, by eliminating the mandatory carbon
    dioxide limitations and providing for a longer implementation period
    for the required emission reductions it presents a challenge that may,
    at least, be manageable.
        In summary, the U.S. gas supply sector is challenged to meet
    existing demand levels. This challenge, which likely will extend over
    the intermediate term because of limitations associated with
    traditional supply areas, has resulted in natural gas prices reaching
    record levels and significant demand destruction within the non-
    electric sectors for natural gas demand.
        The acceleration of the proposed clean air requirement timelines
    and higher levels of emission reductions will only serve to heighten
    and extend this challenge to the U.S. gas supply sector, as these
    changes in clean air requirements will increase gas demand in the
    electric sector. Furthermore, since the gas supply sector is heavily
    dependent on a series of complex and capital intensive emerging sources
    of supply to meet projected increases in natural gas demand, it is
    doubtful that the timeline for additional gas supplies can be
    accelerated materially. In particular, the proposed carbon dioxide
    limits may place the gas industry in a position where it is severely
    challenged to meet the increases in electric sector gas demand
    requirements. Empirical evidence to date is that when the U.S. gas
    supply sector is challenged to this degree the net result is that
    natural gas prices will be pushed to record levels, with all the
    attendant cost increases for the other sectors, and demand destruction
    within the non-electric sectors for natural gas demand.
        Current Status U.S. Gas Supply
        Over the last 2 years the U.S. natural gas supply sector has been
    challenged to meet demand. The primary reason for this phenomenon is
    that U.S. production has been declining for each of the last six
    quarters, as illustrated in Exhibit 1.\1\ This decline in U.S.
    production, which equates to approximately 3.5 BCFD, or 6 percent of
    total production, has caused natural gas prices to reach record
    levels\2\ and resulted in significant demand destruction\3\ in the non-
    electric sectors for natural gas demand. The latter has impacted
    adversely the U.S. economy.\4\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \1\There also have been declines in production in Canada's Western
    Canadian Sedimentary Basin as documented in ``Canada Looks to Other
    Sources to Offset Steep WCSB Declines,'' Natural Gas Week, March 10,
    2003, p. 16 and ``Analysts Sound the Alarm on U.S., Canadian Gas
    Production'' Natural Gas Week, April 28, 2003, pp 5-6.
         \2\See Exhibit A-1 in the Appendix for a summarization of natural
    gas prices.
         \3\The term demand destruction is used often in the natural gas
    industry to describe the loss of demand as a result of high gas prices.
    As discussed in subsequent sections of this paper it often involves
    firms going out of business and plants idling capacity because these
    entities cannot pass through the high gas costs to their customers.
         \4\American Chemical Council, Background Paper on Natural Gas
    Price Shocks and The Economy, February 28, 2003.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   EXHIBIT 1
                          U.S. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

        This decline in U.S. production is occurring throughout the United
    States, as five of the seven major supply areas in the U.S. are in
    decline.\5\ The areas in decline include the San Juan basin, the
    Permian basin, the Mid-Continent area, the onshore Gulf Coast area and
    the shelf of the Gulf of Mexico. Of these areas the most significant
    decline has occurred in the shallow water region, or shelf, of the Gulf
    of Mexico, which historically has been the most prolific producing area
    in the U.S., as it at one time accounted for 26 percent of U.S.
    production. The steady decline in production from the shelf of the Gulf
    of Mexico is summarized in Exhibit 2. Furthermore, the recent
    development of the deepwater region of the Gulf of Mexico, with its
    extensive use of modern exploration and production technology, has not
    been able to offset the decline in production from the shelf, and as a
    result production for the entire Gulf of Mexico is declining.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \5\See Exhibit A-2 and A-3 in the Appendix.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   EXHIBIT 2
            PRODUCTION FROM SHALLOW WATERS (SHELF) IMPACT ON DEMAND

        The supply and demand imbalance resulting from this decline in U.S.
    production has caused natural gas prices to rise to record levels,
    which has caused, in turn, a decline in natural gas demand. This
    decline in demand has been most pronounced in the industrial sector
    where firms have had to idle capacity or have gone out of business
    because they can no longer compete at the current elevated prices for
    natural gas. This decline in industrial activity, which has impacted
    adversely the U.S. economy, has been most pronounced in the basic
    chemicals and primary metals sectors, with the latter being impacted
    adversely by higher gas-fired electricity prices.\6\\7\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \6\Bankrupt fertilizer firms include Farmland (Midwest and
    Louisiana), Vicksburg Chemical (MS), Agrifos (TX), Mulberry Phosphates
    (FL) and Agway (Syracuse, NY). Mississippi Chemical (Yazoo City, MS)
    has had a 1 year credit extension and Terra Industries (Sioux City, IA)
    has acknowledged limited ability to effectively hedge future gas
    prices. Mississippi Chemicals has permanently shut down its
    Donaldsonville, LA plant and Air Products has ceased production at its
    Pace, FL plant. (Source: Company announcements and trade press.)
         \7\Currently idled aluminum plants include Alcan's West Virginia
    plant, the Mead, Tacoma and Trentwood, WA plants for bankrupt Kaiser,
    Alcoa's Troutdale, OR and Rockdale, TX plants, the bankrupt Longview,
    WA plant and the Goldendale plant. These eight plants may never reopen.
    At present in the Pacific Northwest, which is the heart of the U.S.
    aluminum industry, only two plants are operating (i.e., Glencore's
    Columbia Falls in Kalispell, MT at 20 percent capacity and Alcoa's
    Ferndale plant in Bellingham, WA). (Source: Company announcements and
    trade press.)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        With respect to the chemical industry, which accounts for over 50
    percent of industrial sector demand, there has been a fundamental shift
    in the competitiveness of the U.S. chemical industry versus overseas
    facilities because of the higher U.S. gas prices. This has occurred
    because the U.S. chemical sector is heavily based upon natural gas and
    natural gas liquids, while the European and Asian chemical producers
    are based heavily on oil (i.e. naphtha). Higher U.S. gas prices have
    caused the ratio between gas and oil prices to shift from 0.6 in the
    1990's to 1.0 at present, which has provided European and Asian
    chemical producers with a competitive advantage. One example of the
    impact of this shift in competitive position between these regions is
    the recent closure of a Louisiana ethylene and plastics plant in order
    to move operations to Germany, where gas prices are lower and more
    stable.
        With respect to the net impact of higher prices on industrial
    sector demand, the best estimate to date is that industrial sector
    demand has declined approximately 5.5 BCFD, or 26 percent, over the
    last 2 years, as illustrated in Exhibit 3.\8\\9\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \8\``As Gas Prices Increase To New Norm, Chemical Sector Could Be
    Hit Hard,'' Inside FERC's Gas Market Report, February 28, 2003, pp 9-
    10; and ``Chemical Analysts Grow Bearish As U.S. Sector's `Golden Era'
    Closes,'' Natural Gas Week, February 24, 2003, p. 5.
         \9\``Record U.S. natgas prices punish manufacturers'' Reuters,
    February 25, 2003.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Impact Of Cost
        In addition to causing a reduction in demand within some sectors,
    the high gas prices resulting from declining production levels have
    increased substantially the costs of natural gas supply for the other
    sectors. For example, in the residential sector the supply component
    for residential gas costs has increased approximately $17 billion from
    the 5 year average during the late 1990's.

                                   EXHIBIT 3
                               INDUSTRIAL DEMAND

                Intermediate Term Outlook For U.S. Gas Supply

        This challenge for the U.S. gas supply sector likely will continue
    over the intermediate term, as U.S. production levels are projected by
    EVA and others to continue to decline,\10\ as gas-directed drilling
    activity has been slow to respond to increases in natural gas prices
    and decline rates for existing production are high.\11\\12\ One of the
    major reasons for the limited increase in drilling activity during this
    period of elevated gas prices is the limitations the industry faces in
    gaining access to prospective acreage, as a result of environmental
    restrictions and moratoria.\13\ While there is tension between the
    exploration and production industry and other industry observers over
    the exact amount of the potential reserves that are not accessible
    because of the various environmental restrictions, the figure has been
    placed at approximately 200 TCF by the National Petroleum Council study
    and even higher by a study conducted by Texaco (i.e., 450 TCF).
    Furthermore, these environmental limitations on access to prospective
    acreage are increasing rather than decreasing, even though U.S.
    production is declining. Recent examples include (a) restrictions on
    drilling under the Great Lakes even though Canada has done such for
    years, (b) a nearly 75 percent reduction in the offshore acreage that
    was planned to be offered in the Gulf of Mexico Sale 181 and (c)
    Pennsylvania's access restriction of 56 percent of the acreage for the
    Trenton-Black trend within that State.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \10\``Analysts See Bullish Gas Market Rebalanced by Pricing
    Factors,'' Natural Gas Week, December 30, 2002, p. 3; and ``Analysts
    Sound The Alarm on U.S., Canadian Gas production,'' Natural Gas Week,
    April 28, 2003, pp 5-6; and ``CERA Warns of Fragile Balance In Supply/
    Demand Outlook for 2003,'' Inside FERC's Gas Market Report, February
    14, 2003, p. 1.
         \11\See Exhibit A-4 in the Appendix.
         \12\The annual rate of decline in production from new U.S. wells
    accelerated to 27 percent in 2002 from 17 percent in 1990. See ``EIA's
    Rosy Gas Supply Projections in Doubt,'' Natural Gas Week, March 10,
    2003, p. 9.
         \13\``Witnesses Urge Greater Access As Check for Rising Gas
    Prices,'' Natural Gas Week, March 3, 2003, p. 7; and ``Producers
    Concerns Unheeded In New Rockies Reserves Study,'' Natural Gas Week,
    January 20, 2003, p. 3-4 and ``AGA Calls For Access to Closed Areas:
    Court Upholds Forest Land Closings,'' Inside FERC's Gas Market Report,
    December 20, 2002, p. 16.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Another major reason for the limited increase in gas-directed
    drilling activity is the lack of scale for prospective exploration and
    development activity. Even though undiscovered reserves exist, many of
    these reserves are contained in a series of relatively small plays.
    Majors and large independents need large reserve plays in order to
    effectively use their staffs, impact their current production levels
    and effectively allocate capital. It is this diminishing size and
    concentration of reserve targets that led the majors away from further
    development of the shallow waters in the Gulf of Mexico.\14\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \14\``Drilling Boom Deemed Unlikely Despite Natural Gas Price
    Surge,'' Natural Gas Week, March 3, 2003, p. 1.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Relying on smaller independents to develop these smaller reserve
    plays has reached a point of diminishing returns because of the
    downsizing of the U.S. exploration and production (E&P) industry. For
    example, the tabulation of E&P firms in the U.S. industry by the Oil
    and Gas Journal has declined from 400 in 1990 to 176 at present, with
    the smallest firm having assets of only $197,000.\15\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \15\``Special Report OGJ 200/100'' Oil and Gas Journal, September
    9, 2002, pp 70-90.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        As a result of these and other factors, the industry will be
    challenged to maintain, let alone increase, production levels from
    traditional supply areas.\16\ Instead, the industry will have to rely
    on a series of emerging sources of gas supply to fill any gap between
    supply and demand. However, it will be an extended period of time
    before these emerging sources of supply are able to make a significant
    contribution to the U.S. supply sector. As a result, any acceleration
    in U.S. gas demand requirements only will exacerbate the challenge for
    the U.S. supply sector and lengthen the period of high gas prices and
    further demand destruction in other sectors.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \16\This challenge will continue to exist even during potential
    periods of downward gas price volatility, which for example might occur
    do to unforeseen weather events, such as very warm winter weather.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Long-Term Outlook For U.S. Gas Supply Sector
        Exhibit 4 summarizes the long-term outlook for natural gas demand
    for several different forecasters. While there are some differences in
    assumptions for each of these forecasts, they tend to cluster around 30
    TCF for 2015.

                                    Exhibit 4
                     Various Gas Demand Projects For 2015\1\
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Forecast (TCF/Year)
                                     ---------------------------------------
                                       PIRA     EEA     Gil     EIA     EVA
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total Gas.......................    28.8    29.3    29.4    29.5    30.5
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    \1\Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2002 and EVA.

        Reaching this 30 TCF level will be a major challenge for the U.S.
    supply sector, as empirical evidence to date illustrates that this
    level of supply cannot be attained by further development of
    traditional sources of supply. Instead, the industry will have to rely
    on a series of emerging sources of supply, which include the
    exploration and/or development of: (1) deeper reserves (i.e., >15,000
    ft), (2) the highly complex subsalt play in the Gulf of Mexico, (3)
    reserves offshore Eastern Canada, (4) new coalbed methane reserves in
    frontier basins, (5) new LNG terminals and (6) reserves in the Arctic
    areas of both Canada and the U.S.\17\ The challenge and extended
    timeframe for the industry to develop these highly complex and very
    capital intensive sources of supply cannot be emphasized enough. For
    example, it can take up to 9 months on a super computer to process the
    seismic data associated with the subsalt play, which is still in its
    infancy.\18\ Also, drilling a single well for the deep Madden play in
    Wyoming, which used to take over a year, still takes over 200 days even
    with the application of significant improvements in drilling
    technology. Last, a string of expensive dry holes (i.e., approximately
    $440MM to date) over the last 2 years in exploration for potential
    reserves offshore Nova Scotia has forced the industry to reevaluate
    development of the area and delay its time table.\19\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \17\EPRI, Gas Supply Outlook-Gauging Wellhead Deliverability Now
    and in the Future (1004588), February 2002.
         \18\For other non-subsalt exploration plays it typically takes
    less than a month to process the associated seismic data and that is
    accomplished on a basic computer.
         \19\``East Coast Canada Loses Luster As Petro-Canada Abandons
    Well,'' Natural Gas Week, May 5, 2003, p. 16.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        The lengthy timeframe for some of these emerging sources of supply
    is best illustrated by the time lines for new LNG terminals and the
    development of a pipeline(s) for Arctic gas supplies. While the Nation
    is reopening and/or expanding each of the existing four LNG terminals,
    additional LNG supplies beyond the capabilities of the four terminals
    will be required to meet projected demand levels. At present, despite a
    number of industry announcements concerning possible new LNG terminals,
    the FERC has granted only one certificate for a new LNG terminal and
    only one other project has applied for a certificate. In addition,
    there has been the announced cancellation of at least two proposed new
    LNG terminals, as the combination of stiff resistance, primarily on
    environmental grounds, and the expensive nature of these facilities
    have forced several potential industry participants to reconsider their
    involvement in such projects. Also, the U.S. industry has learned that
    even with new LNG terminals, it will have to compete with the rest of
    the world for available supplies. This tension with the rest of the
    world was made very clear this last winter when, despite record U.S.
    gas prices, LNG imports were limited to just 15 percent above the
    levels for the winter of 2000/2001, because of high LNG demand from
    Asian countries.
        With respect to the possibility of Arctic gas supplies, the
    construction of a gas pipeline from the Arctic region to the North
    American market place will be a massive project that will task severely
    the existing infrastructure of the region. At present the earliest
    possible date for the first of the Arctic pipelines, which will be from
    Canada's MacKenzie Delta, is the end of 2008 or early 2009.
    Furthermore, it appears that approximately 75 percent of the initial
    capacity of this pipeline will be required to meet Canadian gas demand
    associated with its growing development of heavy oil sands
    projects.\20\ Beyond this there is the possibility of the $19.4 Billion
    Arctic gas pipeline from Prudhoe Bay, which is projected to be longer
    than the Great Wall of China. While specifics on the timetable for this
    massive project are limited, the earliest potential date for a second
    Arctic gas pipeline appears to be 2013. The possibility of building
    both Arctic pipelines at the same time is not even being considered by
    the industry, because of inadequate infrastructure within the region.
    For example, for the earlier MacKenzie Valley pipeline movements of
    pipe sections will require one truck haul every 5 minutes along the
    Yukon highway system and a doubling of the capacity of the White Pass
    Railway. Furthermore, the tractor and trailer units for these hauls
    will have to be twice the typical length of such units in order to move
    the 82-foot sections of pipe.\21\
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \20\``Canadian Energy Exports to U.S. May Slow As Capacity
    Tightens,'' Natural Gas Week, April 14, 2003, p. 1.
         \21\``Report Says Southern Pipe Route The More Feasible
    Alternative'' Natural Gas Week, February 3, 2003, p. 4 and ``The
    Aboriginal Pipeline Group'' Oil & Gas Journal, March 3, 2003, p. 8.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        To further place the challenge to the U.S. supply in perspective,
    the initial combined capacity of both of these huge Arctic gas pipeline
    projects, net of the incremental demand for Canada, will be only 1.3
    BCFD, or 475 BCF per year, greater than the decline in current U.S.
    production over the last six quarters. Further increases in the
    capacity of these projects likely will not occur until several years
    after the completion of the Prudhoe Bay pipeline project (i.e.,
    approximately 2015 or thereafter).

    Impact Of Proposed Clean Air Requirements
        One of the significant impacts of the proposed increases in clean
    air requirements is that it will cause coal-fired generation to be
    reduced. A significant portion of this decline in coal-fired generation
    will have to be made up by additional gas-fired generation, as other
    forms of generation are limited in their ability to increase
    significantly.\22\ This higher level of gas-fired generation will
    increase natural gas demand requirements within the electric sector,
    which will further exacerbate the challenge to the U.S. gas supply
    sector. This increasing dependence of the electric sector on gas-fired
    generation is most evident in the recent experience of the industry.
    Since 1996 gas demand within the electric sector has increased
    approximately 1.7 TCF (i.e., 4.7 BCFD), or 45 percent. This is one of
    the major reasons for the current challenge within the U.S. gas supply
    sector.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
         \22\Dependence upon natural gas generation is directly
    attributable to other power sources having only a very limited ability
    to offset coal generation losses. Hydro power expansion is limited by
    the lack of appropriate sites and growing permitting opposition.
    Nuclear power is hindered by its very high production costs and
    continuing waste disposal problems. Nor are other renewables able to
    displace large coal losses because of resource limitations and high
    costs. For example, areas offering Class 5-7 wind resources are very
    limited and distant from load centers. Lower class wind resources are
    far too expensive to develop and transmit. In addition, because wind
    power units only operate at best 25 to 33 percent of the time,
    additional gas-fired generation is required to supplement wind power
    units in order to replace the lost base load coal-fired generation.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Of particular concern is both the acceleration of the target dates
    for the proposed changes in clean air requirements and the increases in
    the levels of emission reductions contained in some proposed
    initiatives. Accelerating the time line for these changes in clean air
    requirements will represent a significant challenge for the U.S. gas
    supply sector, as it is improbable that the time line for the large,
    complex and expensive emerging sources of gas supply that will be
    required to meet future demand increases can be accelerated. In fact,
    the more probable scenario is that there will be delays in the time
    lines for some of these emerging sources of supply, which has been the
    case for the development of the region offshore Eastern Canada.
        Similarly, increasing the levels of emission reductions will cause
    an even greater reduction in coal-fired generation and increases in
    both gas-fired generation and gas demand within the electric sector.
    This will only heighten the challenge for the gas supply sector. Of
    particular concern are the carbon dioxide limitations since the power
    industry has no viable control options and must rely totally upon
    switching generation to lower carbon containing fuels, of which the
    most significant is natural gas. Carbon dioxide limits, because they
    place an effective cap on fossil fuel generation, significantly
    increase the challenge for the U.S. gas supply sector.
        If the natural gas supply sector is not capable of meeting the
    challenge of increased gas demand within the electric sector, as a
    result either of an accelerated time table for new clean air
    requirements or the increased emission reduction levels proposed in
    some initiatives, then the alternative is for an extended period of
    high gas prices and demand destruction within the other sectors for
    natural gas demand. Both these latter items will have an adverse impact
    on the U.S. economy. From one perspective this alternative is a mirror
    image of what is currently occurring within the U.S. gas industry.

    Current Clean Air Act Initiatives
        The three Senate proposals have significantly different impacts on
    the natural gas industry. S 366 (Clean Power Act of 2003) poses by far
    the largest natural gas supply challenge because (1) its much tighter
    carbon dioxide and SO2 limitations create the greatest
    demand shifts toward natural gas; (2) its much shorter compliance
    period gives the gas supply industry the least time to expand its
    supply base; (3) its much tighter mercury limit is heavily dependent
    upon mercury control technology performance that has not been
    commercially demonstrated yet and may force the shutdown of a large
    portion of the existing coal power plant fleet; and (4) its new source
    standards forces the greatest amount of older coal based capacity to be
    retired.
        In comparison to S 366, S 834 (Clean Air Planning Act of 2003) will
    reduce the challenge to the natural gas supply sector by phasing in
    slightly higher limitations over a longer period (i.e., four additional
    years). Its longer scheduled compliance period allows the natural gas
    industry valuable time to expand its supply base, while reducing
    natural gas demand pressure by permitting greater coal generation with
    its alternative emission limitations. Also, mercury technology risk is
    greatly reduced, as limitations are more in line with current DOE
    research targets.
        Finally, S 485 (Clear Skies Act of 2003) also presents a challenge
    for the U.S. gas supply sector. However, by eliminating mandatory
    carbon dioxide limitations and providing for longer periods for
    implementing the required emission reductions, it presents a challenge
    that may, at least, be manageable.

    Conclusions
        Currently the U.S. gas supply sector is challenged to meet existing
    demand levels. This challenge, which likely will extend over the
    intermediate term because of limitations associated with traditional
    supply areas, has resulted in natural gas prices reaching record levels
    and significant demand destruction within the non-electric sectors for
    natural gas demand.
        The acceleration of the proposed clean air requirement time lines
    and higher levels of emission reductions will only serve to heighten
    and extend this challenge to the U.S. gas supply sector, as these
    changes in clean air requirements will increase gas demand in the
    electric sector. Furthermore, since the gas supply sector is heavily
    dependent on a series of complex and capital intensive emerging sources
    of supply to meet projected increases in natural gas demand, it is
    doubtful that the timeline for additional gas supplies can be
    accelerated materially. In particular, the proposed carbon dioxide
    limits may place the gas industry in a position where it is severely
    challenged to meet the increases in electric sector gas demand
    requirements. Empirical evidence to date is that when the U.S. gas
    supply sector is challenged to this degree that the net result is that
    natural gas prices will be pushed to record levels, with all the
    attendant cost increases for the other sectors, and demand destruction
    within non-electric sector for natural gas demand.

                                    APPENDIX
                                  Exhibit A-1

                    HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS PRICE WEEKLY DATA

                                  Exhibit A-2
                       PRODUCTION FROM SELECTED REGIONS I

                                  Exhibit A-3
                      PRODUCTION FROM SELECTED REGIONS II

                                  Exhibit A-4
                            RIG COUNT FOR GAS WELLS

                        RIG COUNT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

                                   __________
                  Statement of the American Chemistry Council

        The American Chemistry Council welcomes this opportunity to comment
    on the Clear Skies Act as it relates to the all-important issue of
    natural gas supply and demand. Our country's standard of living and the
    economic health of our citizens and our industries that provide the
    wealth of our jobs are tied intimately with the energy supply including
    a competitively priced natural gas component.
        It is impossible to discuss the benefits of Clear Skies legislation
    without first asking Congress how it plans to address the larger issue
    of restoring balance to the natural gas markets.
        Over the past decade, environmental legislation and policies, like
    the Clean Air Act, have had the effect of triggering a dramatic run-up
    in demand for natural gas. Other environmental policies have put the
    nation's most promising natural gas reserves off limits. As a result,
    all consumers are hurt by the high prices that result from the
    increased demand and shrinking natural gas supply.
        American manufacturers are being priced out of the marketplace.
    Plants are closing. Jobs are moving overseas. Over 35,000 well paying
    jobs in the chemical industry are at risk due to the latest run-up of
    natural gas prices and sustained natural gas prices of over $6.00/MMBtu
    will threaten over 200,000 jobs economy wide. Natural gas pricing
    forecasts call for more of the same.
        At the end of the day, the real environmental benefits that could
    be achieved by Clear Skies legislation will mean little to American
    manufacturers, if current energy policies continue, and more
    manufacturers and jobs are driven off shore because America now has the
    world's highest energy prices.
    The Natural Gas Crisis
        Last month an energy-consulting firm, Energy and Environmental
    Analysis, issued a report saying that, ``US natural gas prices will
    average $6.00/MMBtu at Henry Hub through the current storage injection
    season.''
        Prices next winter will increase further, averaging $6.40 from
    November through March and peaking as high as $6.60 between December
    and February, the firm said. ``Declining gas productive capacity due to
    the anemic drilling activity in 2002 has resulted in extremely tight
    market conditions,'' EEA said in its monthly report.
        Those US prices are more than double the price of natural gas in
    Europe, more than triple the price in parts of Asia, and nearly ten
    times the price of natural gas in the Middle East, North Africa,
    Russia, and Venezuela.
        Natural gas is a regional commodity, but industries that depend on
    natural gas compete in a global marketplace. The chemical industry is
    an example. Chemical makers use natural gas to power their plants and
    as a raw material that is converted into plastics, fibers and other
    materials that are bought and sold around the world. In recent years,
    when the price of natural gas was at its historic average, the chemical
    industry posted a $20 billion trade surplus. Today, the US is net
    importer of chemicals. Today, the US is the world's high cost producer
    of chemicals because it pays the highest prices for natural gas. With
    its competitive advantage gone, US chemical production capacity is
    being shut down and thousands of good-paying jobs are moving overseas.
        What's happening to natural gas is simple--the oft proven laws of
    supply and demand at work. Demand for natural gas is booming and supply
    is declining. The gap is growing rapidly and, as a result, the price of
    natural gas has tripled since 1999. Compounding the problem--the
    inventory of natural gas is now at historic lows. These inventories are
    unlikely to be replenished over the summer to a level sufficient to
    drive down prices in the face of next winter's heating demand.
        What America faces is not a seasonal disturbance, but a fundamental
    structural imbalance in supply and demand for natural gas. America has
    developed a tremendous demand for natural gas. It is clean. It is
    efficient. It is critical to making important products Americans use
    every day. And until recently, it was abundant and competitively
    priced.
        Consumers demand it for heating their homes. Half of new homes are
    now heated by gas. Environmentalists demand it because it is clean
    burning. Industries, including the chemical industry, demand it because
    it is an excellent raw material for making thousands of products that
    we each use, every day.
        More recently the electric utility sector of the US economy has
    turned to natural gas. Because of the low capital costs, shorter
    construction lead times, and environmental policies, natural gas used
    to generate electricity has increased by 35 percent in the past 5
    years. Natural gas consumption for electricity generation is projected
    to increase from 5.3 trillion cubic feet in 2001 to 10.6 trillion cubic
    feet in 2025.
        America's economy is becoming one that is increasingly reliant on
    natural gas.
        Natural gas prices and subsequent impacts leave us with questions
    about how much Clear Skies will help our situation. While Clear Skies
    could slow the drive to natural gas for power generation, and could
    even promote clean coal technologies for future generating capacity,
    additional action is needed. Environmental policies like Clear Skies
    will have little bearing on businesses like ours if our operations
    continue to be driven off-shore by runaway energy prices.
    Congress Needs to Act
        Unfortunately, the nation's current natural gas supply is running
    low. Production capacity is lower today than it was 30 years ago when
    Americans were consuming far less natural gas.
        The paradox is that America has adequate domestic natural gas
    reserves to meet current and future needs. Unfortunately, Congress
    won't allow access to those natural gas reserves. The most promising--
    and desperately needed--reserves are currently off-limits to
    development. Many of these reserves are in partially restricted areas
    like the northern Rocky Mountains, Alaska, or in fully restricted areas
    such as the eastern Gulf of Mexico and off the East and West Coasts.
        In the final analysis, the natural gas crisis is a domestic
    political and public policy problem. Environmental policies are driving
    new demand for gas to generate electricity and heat homes. Other
    environmentally driven policies keep critically needed supplies off
    limits. As a Nation, we can't have it both ways. We can't demand more
    natural gas and continue to cutoff the natural gas supply.
    Natural Gas Implications for the Clear Skies Act
        This economic and energy context shapes how we look at
    environmental policies like Clear Skies. National air quality policies
    have sharply accelerated the switch from coal to natural gas by
    electricity generators. The Clear Skies proposal, in its current form,
    has the potential to slow the stampede from coal to gas and to
    partially help secure a period of more stable, diverse and sustainable
    supply of competitively priced energy.
        Clear Skies does not go far enough, however, to promote the
    development and use of clean coal technologies for future generating
    capacity. Clear Skies largely supports the continued use of existing
    generating capacity with add-on technology controls, but does little to
    encourage the adoption of control technologies that will actually grow
    the use of coal in America and mitigate the demands on natural gas.
        When compared to other multipollutant legislation that has been
    introduced, Clear Skies would best promote continued fuel diversity.
    Clear Skies attempts to balance the demand for continued Clean Air
    progress with maintaining energy diversity. The debate surrounding the
    introduction of Clear Skies highlights this delicate and tenuous
    balancing act--even minor changes to the bill could drive utilities to
    switch to natural gas.
        Clear Skies does not put mandatory controls on CO2 emissions. If
    Congress does enact mandatory CO2 controls, the days of coal-fired
    power generation are numbered. Coal, the one domestically abundant
    energy source that keeps energy prices in reasonable balance will no
    longer be used. Natural gas prices will skyrocket with even greater
    demand and subsequent shortages of supply. The three-pollutant
    approach, described in Clear Skies with implementation carried out over
    a reasonable timeframe will enable utilities to make use of the latest
    clean coal technology and move forward with development of additional
    coal technologies.
        The right timelines also could enable power generators to maintain
    their diverse fuel base, and assure market entry of advanced fossil
    technologies, including natural gas and coal technologies. The same
    holds true for timelines and stringency chosen to control mercury
    emissions. Too tight a timeline or too stringent mercury reduction will
    force utilities to fuel-switch.
        Clear Skies should provide an exemption for all energy efficient
    and low-emitting combined heat and power (CHP) generators. Many of our
    member companies rely heavily on CHP systems to provide the steam and
    electricity for internal manufacturing processes. These systems are
    universally recognized as being ultra-efficient when compared to
    traditional fossil fueled utility power generators because they capture
    the heat from the electricity generation process for use in the host
    chemical plant. Today's systems can reach or exceed efficiencies as
    high as 80 percent, nearly twice that of the best combined-cycle gas
    fired utility generator. Obviously getting twice the energy outputs
    from the same energy inputs is beneficial. Congress should be
    encouraging greater CHP usage by commercial, industrial and residential
    interests.
        The American Chemistry Council has not yet finalized our position
    on Clear Skies legislation as environmental policy. But Clear Skies
    also has implications on national energy policy, and in that regard,
    our position is clear: Clear Skies can slow the stampede in power
    generation from coal to natural gas and Clear Skies can help America
    maintain a more diverse fuel base. But Clear Skies cannot, by itself,
    restore balance to natural gas markets and it will not stop new
    generating capacity from being almost exclusively natural gas fired and
    increasing the price of natural gas. Last, Clear Skies alone cannot
    make American manufacturing more competitive and help our economy
    regain and maintain its strength in global markets by lowering energy
    prices.
        Congress must open up the domestic natural gas supply and restore
    balance to our nation's fuel diversity. A strong long-term economy that
    includes an energy policy that improves the economic well being of all
    citizens must be coupled with the actions that lead to improved health
    and environment.

                                   __________
       Statement of Joel Bluestein, President, Energy and Environmental
                                 Analysis, Inc.

    Summary of Testimony
        Natural gas prices are likely to be higher in the future than in
    the last 15 years and power generation is the fastest growing component
    of natural gas demand. New multipollutant regulations are not a primary
    driver for the increase in gas prices, however. In addition, higher gas
    prices are likely to reduce the potential for wide-spread switching
    from gas to goal as a result of increased regulation. Finally, a
    gradually implemented multipollutant program that rewards the
    development and implementation of new technology could promote a more
    balanced mix of power generation assets and help avoid over-reliance on
    gas.

    Introduction
        Thank you Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee for the
    opportunity to testify today. My name is Joel Bluestein and I am the
    President of Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. EEA is located in
    Arlington, Virginia and has been providing energy and environmental
    consulting services since 1974. Among our major areas of expertise are:

          Analyzing and forecasting the supply, demand and price of
    natural gas
          Analyzing the impacts of regulatory policy on energy
    markets
          Analyzing new energy technologies in the context of
    environmental regulations.

        We have done this work for natural gas producers, pipelines, local
    distribution companies, power generators, technology developers, the
    U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and
    other public, private and institutional clients. I have been at EEA for
    14 years and have over 20 years of experience in the energy and
    environmental field.
        Today I'd like to briefly share with you our current outlook on
    supply and price of natural gas in North America and some views on the
    relationship between that outlook and multipollutant legislation.

    Gas Price Forecast
        EEA quarterly prepares a 20 year forecast of North American natural
    gas supply, demand and price that we call our Natural Gas Compass.
    Figure 1 summarizes our current view of the price for natural gas over
    that period. It shows that we expect gas prices at the Henry Hub to
    average about $5.70/MMBtu (in constant 2002 dollars) for the next 2
    years and decline to a level around $4.50/MMBtu for the remainder of
    the period except for brief periods later in the forecast.
        This is a significant increase from gas prices over the last 15
    years, which have mostly stayed below $2.50/MMBtu. The roots of this
    change have been quite visible in the last few years and reflect the
    end of the ``gas bubble'' of the 1990's or more precisely the fact that
    the balance of supply and demand for natural gas has been growing
    tighter in recent years. A tighter balance between supply and demand
    results in higher prices and increased volatility. This does not mean
    that we are ``running out'' of natural gas, it does mean that gas
    producers need to look further afield and spend more money to meet the
    demand for gas, and that is reflected in the price.

        Our forecast includes new development of natural gas in several
    U.S. areas including Alaska, the deep Gulf of Mexico and the Rockies as
    well as imports from the Mackenzie Delta in Western Canada and the
    Maritimes area off of Canada's east coast. We also project increased
    imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the four existing LNG
    terminals and the addition of several new LNG terminals in the later
    part of the forecast. Finally, we project that adequate pipeline
    capacity must be constructed to bring the gas to places where it is
    needed.
        This scenario reflects what we see as a realistic though
    challenging period of growth for the natural gas industry. It requires
    very large investments of capital, though not more than has been
    invested in the past. It also requires a variety of positive policy
    decisions such as support for an Alaskan gas pipeline, development of
    LNG terminals, construction of other new pipelines, etc. If any of
    these does not occur, the price forecast is higher. One might say that
    there is more upside potential than downside on gas prices.
        This price forecast is driven by the consumption of natural gas
    growing from 22.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2002 to 28.2 Tcf in 2015
    and 30.4 Tcf in 2020. The largest portion of this growth is in the
    power generation sector, growing from 4.3 Tcf in 2002 to 8.4 Tcf in
    2015 and 9.5 Tcf in 2020. While there is some variation, these
    consumption projections are not significantly different from those
    developed by other forecasters, including the U.S. Energy Information
    Administration.
        So I agree with the basics of much of what has been said on this
    topic:

          The gas supply/demand balance has gotten tighter and will
    remain tight.
          Gas prices will be higher than in recent history, perhaps
    significantly higher.
          Power generation will be the major growth sector for gas
    demand.

    Relationship to Multipollutant Regulation
        The question of how we can best and most appropriately ensure an
    adequate gas supply is a complex and important one that is already
    being addressed in other forums. I think the question for today is:
    ``What does this gas price outlook say about environmental regulation
    of the power generation sector?"
        The EEA forecast does not include any significant switching from
    coal to gas in the power generation sector. We do include the large
    amount of new gas-fired generation that has been built in recent years,
    about 150 GW from 1998 through 2002, and continued construction of new
    gas capacity in the near future. We also project new coal capacity
    coming on line, mostly after 2010.
        It must be pointed out that, in certain areas, this new gas
    capacity actually reduces gas consumption by replacing older, less
    efficient gas generation. We have seen old gas plants retired in Texas
    because they cannot compete with the new, more efficient gas plants.
    It's been estimated that replacing all of the old gas plants in Texas
    with new, state-of-the-art gas combined cycle plants could reduce gas
    consumption for power generation by over 200 Bcf per year. The use of
    even more efficient combined heat and power (CHP) can make this
    reduction even greater. The same is true in other parts of the
    Southwest, as well as parts of the West, South and Northeast. In some
    States where markets have not opened up yet, this potential is
    currently being lost because incumbent utilities can choose to dispatch
    their old less efficient plants rather than the new plants.
        There seems to be a lot of concern that, either on its own or due
    to various environmental restrictions, the demand for gas for power
    generation will inexorably grow until it threatens our economy. I think
    this concern is overstated and unfounded, certainly as regards the
    power generation sector. Although we see continued growth in new gas-
    fired generation, we do not expect massive switching from coal to gas
    under any 3-P regulatory scenario currently being discussed.
        At the gas prices we are forecasting, switching to gas will not be
    the most economic choice except for the least economic, highest cost-
    of-control coal plants. The capital cost of a new combined cycle plant
    is much less than a new coal plant, but still much more than the cost
    of even a complicated control retrofit at most coal plants. And then,
    the cost of fuel for even an efficient new combined cycle gas plant at
    $4.50/MMBtu is over $30/MWh. This is almost three times the fuel cost
    for even an inefficient coal plant burning coal at $1/MMBtu or less.
    There is a lot of money to be made on the coal side of that
    competition. This is reflected in the U.S.
        EPA's extensive modeling of regulatory scenarios in which they are
    hard-pressed to show any significant switching to gas even with gas
    prices two or three times lower than the prices we are forecasting.
        The higher gas prices go, the better the economics of coal look. We
    might have greater concern over switching if there were no way to burn
    coal efficiently and cleanly. But this is not the case. There are many
    coal plants today that efficiently and economically limit their
    SO2 and NOx emissions and are highly competitive in the
    market. New coal plants being built are even cleaner. New coal
    technologies being developed, such as integrated gasification combined
    cycle plants, are cleaner and more efficient yet.
        New technology is vital to addressing control additional pollutants
    such as mercury or even CO2. The concern then becomes
    whether the appropriate technologies will be available to provide
    adequate reductions. In the history of pollution control programs,
    industry has always found ways to control pollution more effectively
    and less expensively than originally thought possible. But that may be
    little comfort to plant owners who face a new set of pollution control
    challenges.
        Multipollutant programs like the Clear Skies Act and those proposed
    by Senator Jeffords and Senators Carper, Chafee and Gregg, despite
    differences in detail which I don't propose to address, all will likely
    help the development of new, clean coal generation by providing
    increased regulatory certainty and flexibility to find effective
    compliance solutions. Emission cap and trade programs provide a variety
    of tools to address the problem, including: the timing and stringency
    of the cap, cost mitigation measures and availability of off-sector
    trading.
        One shortcoming of the Clear Skies Act in supporting new technology
    is that the ``grandfathering'' approach to allowance allocation
    disadvantages new plants in general and new coal plants in particular.
    The failure to allocate allowances to new coal plants creates a
    disincentive for companies to develop these plants and drives the power
    sector more toward gas. An allocation approach that includes new plants
    and rewards efficiency is one way to help ensure that we can continue
    to rely on our substantial coal resources.
        I agree with those who endorse phased implementation of emission
    caps. However, I would add that starting the programs earlier and
    phasing them in more gradually is critical to ensuring the availability
    of appropriate technology. Development of new technology requires a
    driver, which in this case is regulation. Then technology development
    needs money and time for research, development and commercialization.
    Command and control programs and cap and trade programs with large
    reduction steps don't provide enough time for technology development.
    However, delaying the imposition of the regulation doesn't provide a
    sufficient driver for development. A series of gradual steps can jump-
    start technology development and keep it moving.
        This can be illustrated for the topic that probably creates the
    greatest concern for over-reliance on natural gas--CO2
    reduction. I think it's clear that switching to gas alone is not an
    adequate approach to CO2 mitigation. CO2
    reduction will require a mix of gas, renewable, and advanced coal
    technologies such as integrated gasification combined cycle with
    sequestration or coal-based hydrogen production, combined heat and
    power and other efficiency measures. Overly aggressive near-term
    reduction requirements will not help us promote the development of new
    technologies. On the other hand, neither will continued delay of
    regulation. The point was made at the last hearing on this topic that
    delay in addressing CO2 regulation is one more reason that
    companies are reluctant to construct new coal capacity today. Finally,
    the long-term reduction goals required to address climate change are
    much greater than the levels currently being discussed even in 4-P
    legislation and must be recognized early to provide the right
    direction.
        Figure 2 shows a cap and trade approach that applies gradual
    CO2 reductions to jump-start technology development and
    promote long-term solutions while avoiding near-term economic
    distruption, including excessive switching to gas. In fact, in this
    approach, the emission cap increases for the first several yars, then
    levels off and begins a very gradual decline. It is designed to reach
    an 80 percent CO2 reduction by 2060, which is calibrated to
    meeting a 450 part per million (pp) atmospheric CO2 level.
    An economic "circuit breaker" could be used during the declining
    portion of the program to adjust the rate of decline and avoid economic
    disruptions.

        This approach would send an immediate signal that new technology is
    required and provide financial support for new technology through an
    immediate, active market in CO2 allowances, even though
    reductions are not immediately required. It would provide immediate
    financial return for ``no regrets'', voluntary actions while reducing
    the transaction cost and verification concerns. The schedule would also
    avoid any immediate devaluation of existing assets, since major
    reductions don't start until 2015. At the same time it makes a
    commitment to meet the long-term goals. More information on this
    approach is included as Attachment A. A similar, less gradual approach
    could be used to promote new technology for mercury control.

    Conclusion
        In conclusion, we do see higher gas prices in the future,
    regardless of what regulations are imposed on the power generation
    sector. This increase and its implications need to be addressed
    separately from their implications on multipollutant regulation.
    However, higher gas prices will increase the value of new, clean,
    efficient coal technologies. We need to continue the use of coal as a
    major component of our power generating mix. However, the future of
    coal-based generation should not be the continued use of 50 year old
    plants but rather the construction of new, more advanced coal
    technologies. That, in fact, is probably the long-term path to wider
    use of coal in our economy through the development of coal-based liquid
    fuels or hydrogen. Multipollutant legislation can encourage the
    development of those technologies by providing equitable allowance
    allocations for new plants and by setting gradually declining emission
    caps from an early starting point.
        Thank you again for this opportunity to speak and I'll be happy to
    respond to any questions at the appropriate time.

                            CLEAR SKIES ACT OF 2003

                                  ----------

                             THURSDAY, JUNE 5, 2003

                                           U.S. Senate,
                     Committee on Environment and Public Works,
         Subcommittee on Clean Air, Climate Change and Nuclear
                                                        Safety,
                                                        Washington, DC.
        The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:35 a.m. in
    room 406, Senate Dirksen Building, Hon. George V. Voinovich
    [chairman of the subcommittee] presiding.

    REVIEW OF EMISSIONS CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES AND UTILITY-SECTOR INVESTMENT
                                     ISSUES

        Present: Senators Voinovich, Carper, Thomas, Cornyn, and
    Inhofe [ex officio].

      OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, U.S. SENATOR
                         FROM THE STATE OF OHIO

        Senator Voinovich. Good morning. The hearing will please
    come to order.
        This is the third hearing we've had on the Clear Skies Act,
    S. 485 and continues a discussion that we have had in this
    committee for several years on the complex issues on how to
    clear our air by reducing emissions without doing irreparable
    harm to our economy and this country's competitive position in
    the global marketplace.
        Today's hearing will focus on the issues surrounding
    current and projected emissions control technologies and their
    impact on utility sector investments. Several times throughout
    the course of these hearings I have stated that we need to
    enact a comprehensive energy policy that harmonizes the needs
    of our economy and our environment. We cannot forget that one
    of the major reasons that we have been successful economically
    and competitively in the world marketplace is our ability to
    purchase reliable, affordable energy supplies.
        We must also keep in mind that we must do better in
    protecting the quality of our air. Despite the fact that the
    Clean Air Act has been extremely successful in reducing
    emissions of pollution, emissions of all criteria pollutant
    have been reduced by 29 percent since the Act was passed,
    despite that fact that both electricity and energy use have
    both increased significantly over the same period of time, the
    fact is, there is still significant room for improvement, and
    that's why this legislation has been introduced.
        As we look at the issues surrounding emission control
    technologies and the financial stability of our utility sector,
    it is very clear that the nexus between the environment and the
    economy is rather than an academic or political exercise, a
    very real issue for those who will be affected by the decisions
    we make on this committee and in the Senate.
        The Clear Skies Act establishes legislative emission caps
    for SO2, NOx, and mercury that will require
    utilities to reduce their emissions of these pollutants by
    approximately 70 percent by 2018. In order to meet these
    reduction requirements, utilities will need to rely on
    different technologies to capture each of the pollutants. The
    primary technology used by utilities to reduce SO2
    is the flue gas desulfurization, FGT unit, which we like to
    call, easier, scrubbers, which can achieve about a 95 percent
    reduction in SO2 emissions.
        Utilities that need to reduce NOx emissions generally
    install selective catalytic reduction, SR units, which can
    remove about 90 percent of the NOx in our power plants. In
    order to reduce emissions of mercury, utilities must rely on
    the combination of scrubbers, SCRs and other emission reduction
    technologies that are currently available until new mercury
    specific technologies are brought on line. The level of mercury
    removal from this method depends on a combination of control
    technologies used and the rank of the type of coal, bituminous,
    subbituminous or lignite, and composition or chlorine level of
    the coal.
        Investor owned utilities, co-ops and municipal generators,
    in conjunction with the Administration and others in the public
    sector, are currently working on the development of several new
    mercury specific control technologies, including activated
    carbon injection, clean coal technologies and integrated coal
    gasification combined cycle technologies. However,
    demonstration projects using these technologies are in their
    infancy and results have varied greatly.
        The technologies that utilities, co-ops and municipal
    generators have to install in order to meet the Clean Air
    requirements constitute major capital investment for these
    entities. I can recall when I first became Governor of Ohio
    that we put in place a plan that helped AEP to add scrubbers to
    their Gavin plant in order to reduce SO2 emissions.
    Those scrubbers at that time cost over $675 million, a decade
    ago. I also understand that AEP has recently installed SCRs at
    Gavin in order to reduce NOx emissions at an additional cost of
    over $250 million.
        Although the capital expenses that generators have had to
    install to date are high, the projected expenses for installing
    new equipment to meet new EPA regulations will be even greater.
    I understand that over 100,000 megawatts of coal power plant
    capacity will have to be retrofitted with SCRs by 2005 in order
    to meet the requirements of the NOx SIP call, which they're all
    going to make or try to make.
        Additional equipment will be required to meet EPA's new
    standards for ozone and particulate matter which will go into
    effect in 2004-2005. Further, EPA is set to propose a new rule
    on the mercury MACT next year, that will require significant
    reductions in mercury emissions by 2008, despite the fact that
    we don't have any mercury-specific reduction technologies
    available to install.
        It is understandable why many people feel the environmental
    policies that have been developed over the last decade have
    focused more on eliminating coal-based generation than
    eliminating emissions. This is despite the fact that over 50
    percent of our electricity generation is coal based and that we
    have over 250 years worth of coal available domestically. These
    tremendous capital expenses for installation of emissions
    reduction technologies have direct impact on generators'
    ability to provide reliable, affordable electricity to
    residential, industrial and manufacturing customers. Utilities,
    co-ops, municipal generators that rely on coal for a large
    percentage of their generation are facing the choice of either
    investing hundreds of millions of dollars on emission control
    technologies or fuel switching to natural gas in order to meet
    air quality standards.
        Further, the California electricity crisis, the recent
    energy trading scandals, the significant increases in natural
    gas prices, have left utilities financially strapped and forced
    several major energy companies to declare bankruptcy. The end
    result will be inevitably higher energy prices and a drag in
    our economy. All sides in the debate on multi-pollutant
    legislation agree that the current approach to regulation
    utilized by EPA is plagued with burdensome, overlapping
    regulations that are subject to costly and time consuming
    litigation and have become unnecessarily costly.
        In the first hearing on this topic, I stated that there are
    now more than a dozen separate regulations on the books for
    sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide, with additional regulations
    around the corner. We also discussed the fact that litigation
    over several of these regulations has already delayed their
    implementation, forestalling the air quality benefits that they
    were designed to achieve. The patchwork of existing and soon to
    be implemented regulations, coupled with the delays bred by
    continuous litigation, has created enormous uncertainty for
    utilities, co-ops and municipal generators, and has stymied
    efforts to improve the environment. This uncertainty has
    curtailed investments in technologies that would reduce
    emissions at existing plants, prevented numerous new facilities
    from coming on line and caused several utilities to consider
    phasing out coal based generation altogether by fuel switching.
        With the implementation of the Clean Air Act provisions,
    other Federal environmental regulations and State clean air
    laws, they combine to create uncertainty for electricity
    generators. They have a tremendous impact on the ability of
    private sector utilities to raise capital and make strategic
    long term investment decisions, such as decisions on the
    purchase and installation of emission control technologies.
        It's absolutely imperative that we act to pass legislation
    that will bring sanity to our environmental policy and prevent
    situations like this from taking place. Clear Skies will
    eliminate many of the problems that have arisen from EPA's
    implementation of the Clean Air Act. It will result in
    significant emission reductions and protect our air quality and
    public health. It will provide generators with a realistic and
    certain time table to meet emission standards. And it will
    ensure that they can continue to provide affordable, reliable
    electricity to residential, industrial and manufacturing
    customers and move forward with the emissions reductions.
        As I mentioned at the beginning of my remarks, this is the
    third hearing on Clear Skies. I intend to mark up Clear Skies
    at the next subcommittee level as soon as possible. And I want
    to restate my firm commitment to push hard to have the full
    committee report a bill to the floor and to have the Senate
    pass it this Congress.
        I want to thank our first witness this morning, Chairman
    Kroszner, for coming to present the Administration's take on
    these vital issues to the subcommittee. I also look forward to
    the testimony of our other witnesses. I'd like to make it very,
    very clear that we are going to stick, I'm going to be very
    fastidious about the 5 minute rule, because we have a lot of
    witnesses today, we want to move along and I may, if we get to
    the third panel, even require that it be less than 5 minutes.
    But we'll see how things move along this morning.
        I would now like to call on the ranking member of this
    committee, Senator Carper.

     OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. THOMAS R. CARPER, U.S. SENATOR FROM
                         THE STATE OF DELAWARE

        Senator Carper. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. Good morning to our
    chairman of the full committee, Senator Inhofe, good morning.
    And to our first witness and other who will follow, glad you
    are here. It looks like it's standing room only here in our
    hearing room. That's a great thing.
        Mr. Chairman, I want to start off by thanking you and your
    staff for working with us as we have gone through the gyrations
    of the last week or so trying to figure out how many witnesses
    we were going to have. I'm most grateful for the way that
    you've approached this. I think we've got a great lineup and
    we're looking forward to learn a lot from them and from one
    another as we prepare to mark up.
        I especially want to welcome a couple of folks from
    Delaware who are here. One of our witnesses is from W.L. Gore,
    and they're going to be sharing with us some of the technology,
    exciting technology that they've developed in their testing and
    implementing around the country with respect to controlling
    emissions of mercury. Chris Koons, who works with W.L. Gore,
    was good enough to set up a briefing earlier this year and
    maybe late last year. One of the people who showed us their new
    technology is Rick Bucher, who's going to be sharing that with
    us again today. That technology apparently removes as much as
    90 percent of mercury emissions from coal-fired plants. That
    got my attention and I think we'll be interested in hearing
    what they have to say.
        I'm told that Chris Koons going to play the role of Vanna
    White in working with the visual aids. That will be an
    interesting role for her. Thank you both for coming.
        And it's these kinds of technologies that I think move us
    and help move our country and the Congress toward a cleaner
    environment, which we all want to support.
        I'm also looking forward to the third panel, when we'll
    have the opportunity to hear maybe for the first time before a
    Senate committee an aspect of this debate that we've not
    previously considered, and that is the view of this issue,
    particularly the issue of global warming, for investors,
    investors who invest in the utility industry.
        One week ago today in the New York Times there was an
    article in the business section that I'd like to quote from
    briefly, and then Mr. Chairman, I'm going to ask consent that
    the full article be entered into the record. It was written by
    a woman whose name is Catherine Seely, I hope I've got that
    right, if she's listening or watching. But she said this, she
    said, ``Almost a quarter of the shareholders of the Southern
    Company, one of the Nation's largest utilities, voted at an
    annual meeting today to require the company to analyze and
    report on the potential financial risks associated with its
    emissions of the pollutants that cause global warming.''
        The article goes on to say that last year similar
    resolutions concerning global warming garnered an average
    support of 18 percent, while this year the average has grown to
    more than 25 percent. More and more companies are beginning to
    face such questions about their environmental record for
    investors while here in Congress we continue to discuss new
    legislative strategies to clean up our air. On Wall Street,
    there is a growing call for companies to recognize that
    emissions, including CO2 and those that lead to
    global warming, should be addressed. An increasing number of
    shareholders who vote with their dollars are beginning to
    invest their capital based on how companies are addressing
    these issues. And those shareholders and the companies are
    looking to us for a signal on what will come.
        While today's hearing focuses on the Clear Skies Act, I
    want to remind the committee that along with Senators Chafee
    and Gregg, I've introduced a Clean Air Planning Act, which
    represents what we think is a sensible solution to this
    problem. The bill would provide a market based and flexible
    approach to regulating CO2, NOx, mercury and
    SO2 emissions, while continuing to provide
    affordable and reliable electricity.
        And I'd be remiss if I didn't take just a moment, Mr.
    Chairman, to say something about our good friend Christy
    Whitman, I always address her as Governor Whitman when she
    comes before this panel, who since her last hearing announced
    her plans to step down as the Director of EPA. I will miss her
    personally, and I certainly wish her and her family the very
    best in all that lies ahead, and I wish President Bush, another
    old Governor, some good luck in nominating a replacement who is
    as capable and as cooperative as Governor Whitman has been on
    many issues that we've dealt with her together. She's been a
    strong advocate for moving a multi-pollutant bill through this
    committee and through the Senate, and I hope we can meet that
    challenge even after she's gone.
        I also hope that before she leaves, she'll be able to
    respond to the requests that Senators Chafee and Gregg and I
    made to her this past April, when we asked for an analysis of
    the Clean Air Planning Act. And to date, we've not received it.
    Having that information we think is critical to our ability and
    this committee's to evaluate alternative options and to develop
    effective legislation.
        Mr. Chairman, let me conclude with this. Something I said
    at our first hearing on this topic, I just want to repeat it, I
    said it I think when Governor Whitman was before us, and here
    it is. We should agree on at least a set of principles to guide
    us as we move forward, and I again offer the following four
    principles.
        No. 1, and four is better than three, a comprehensive four
    mission strategy that includes carbon reductions will provide
    regulatory certainty and offer the greatest environmental and
    economic benefits. No. 2, markets work. Cap-and-trade-based
    emissions standards provide the maximum incentive to achieve
    cleaner power.
        No. 3, stairs are better than cliffs. Prompt but gradual
    reductions through multi-phase or declining caps are more
    desirable than single phase cuts. And last but not least, No.
    4, eliminate redundancy only when emission reductions are
    secured. Existing regulatory programs such as new source review
    will need some modernization in light of tight emission caps.
        Well, that's it. I look forward to the hearing. It's going
    to be a good one, and Mr. Chairman and all our witnesses, thank
    you all for making it possible.
        Senator Voinovich. Thanks very much, Senator Carper.
        I'd like to call on the chairman of our committee, Jim
    Inhofe.

     OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JAMES M. INHOFE, U.S. SENATOR FROM
                         THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA

        Senator Inhofe. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would also say
    favorable things about Governor Whitman, particularly since she
    recanted the very statement that you read at a later date. It
    takes a very large person to do something like that.
        I want to thank Dr. Kroszner for testifying on this current
    state of the knowledge regarding emissions control technology.
    As you know, this topic is of great significance to not just
    the four of us at this table, but our committee. While I would
    have preferred that this data had come to us earlier, I
    appreciate the Administration is here today to ensure that this
    subcommittee has the most up to date information as it
    considers the legislation.
        I want to reiterate something the chairman said that I'm
    committed to the Clear Skies goal of reducing the SOx and NOx
    and mercury emissions by 70 percent, which is the most
    aggressive Presidential initiative in the United States history
    to reduce power plant emissions. That's worth repeating,
    because you don't hear this very often out in the media. This
    is the most aggressive Presidential initiative in the history
    of reducing power plant emissions.
        But I am concerned that the phase one mercury interim cap
    is too stringent and creates too much uncertainty. U.S.
    utilities contribute only 1 percent of the mercury emitted
    globally and new scientific findings have called into question
    the health effects associated with mercury emissions. While I
    intend to address the question of the current state of science
    regarding mercury at a future full committee hearing, the focus
    of this hearing is on the control equipment.
        The decisions we make should be based on the best available
    facts about how well the technologies work because regulation
    of mercury is very, very costly. These costs are passed on to
    consumers as higher electric prices. And high prices are like a
    regressive tax on the poor in our Nation. That's something that
    everybody has to have. And it's one that hits the poor harder
    than it does the wealthy.
        I'm aware that the Administration has expended much effort
    to incorporate into its models the most accurate assessments of
    what the various technologies accomplish in terms of reducing
    SOx and NOx and mercury. While reducing emissions levels can be
    extremely expensive, much is understood about the capture of
    SOx and NOx in particulate matter. There is little uncertainty
    regarding the costs and emissions capture rates in SOx in the
    latest technologies such as scrubbers and bag housing.
        Mercury stands in sharp contrast. While there are
    technologies under development, and we'll hear of some of them
    toady, as Senator Carper pointed out, there is no commercially
    proven and available technology to remove mercury from coal-
    fire emissions. My main interest in this hearing is the
    estimated mercury phase one co-benefits level. I feel compelled
    to note my longstanding frustration at the ever-evolving
    definition of co-benefits as this process has progressed. So I
    want to make clear at this hearing how I define it.
        Mercury co-benefits are the levels of mercury expected to
    be achieved as a result of meeting SOx and NOx phase one
    emissions limitations. Dr. Kroszner, when it becomes question
    and answer time, I'll be asking for your definition to see if
    you're in agreement with that.
        Clearly, the state of knowledge regarding mercury capture
    is rapidly evolving. It is still in its infancy. Much
    uncertainty remains about the levels of capture that are
    achieved using proven technologies. Dr. Kroszner, you written
    statement reflects both these statements. While Clear Skies has
    a hard cap of 26 tons, your models predict that the co-benefits
    will result in emission levels in the range of 34 to 46 tons.
    This range also demonstrates the level of uncertainty that
    exists even now about the levels of control and what the
    various technologies will achieve.
        My primary interest is to better understand the major
    assumptions your models make about various combinations of
    equipment. Specifically, how have the models evolved from the
    2002 to 2003 for both EPA and EIA and also what equipment
    combinations drive the differences between the co-benefit
    results projections.
        I would like to compliment the Administration for the level
    of attention given to continually upgrade its estimates by
    working with researchers and industry to improve the
    assumptions it uses in the models. This new information is
    profound in its implications. I am also encouraged the
    Administration is continuing in its efforts to reconcile the
    differences between the EPA and the EIA models so that Congress
    has the latest information as to the science, as the science
    matures.
        So Mr. Chairman and Mr. Ranking Member, I'm delighted to
    have all three panels. And I do agree with your restriction on
    time. Otherwise, it's going to last the whole day.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Thomas.

     OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. CRAIG THOMAS, U.S. SENATOR FROM THE
                            STATE OF WYOMING

        Senator Thomas. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with your
    restriction on time also, so I'll be very brief.
        I agree with what the chairman has just said, but I
    certainly welcome this hearing. We all agree we want clean air
    and we want to move in that direction, of course. So we need to
    talk about it.
        Since the enactment of the Clean Air Act, there have been
    significant reductions in NOx and SO2 and
    technologies exist for both of these emissions. My concern is
    the lack of commercially demonstrated technology for mercury,
    particularly for western coal, and general belief that mercury
    can be captured by adding scrubbers in the routine way of doing
    it. This may work for eastern bituminous coal, it does not work
    in the west.
        So I agree very much with what the chairman has said, and I
    look forward to it, and I appreciate your being here and hope
    we can come up with a reasonable approach to continue to get
    clean air. Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Senator Thomas.
        Dr. Kroszner, you can proceed with your testimony. We're
    very happy that you're here today.

     STATEMENT OF RANDALL S. KROSZNER, MEMBER, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
                                ADVISERS

        Dr. Kroszner. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, ranking
    member and members of the committee. I'm delighted to be able
    to address you today on this extremely important issue of the
    Clear Skies Act of 2003.
        I will just give you a few highlights of the testimony to
    try to keep in the 5 minute limit, and if I may just submit for
    the record the formal written testimony that I have.
        Senator Voinovich. Without objection. And Senator Carper,
    without objection, we'll include that which you referenced in
    are opening statement earlier.
        Senator Carper. Thanks, Mr. Chairman.
        Dr. Kroszner. Thank you very much.
        Strict enforcement of environmental rules can be dated back
    as early as 1306, when a man was allegedly executed for burning
    coal in London. In the United States, concern for air quality
    dates back to the mid-19th century, when many municipalities
    began to issue smoke ordinances. Responsibility for regulating
    air polluters rested almost exclusively with States and
    localities until the 1970's.
        During these years, the Federal Government began to take a
    more active role in environmental regulation with the passage
    of the National Environmental Policy Act, Clean Air Act, and
    further amendments later in the 1970's. One common thread over
    time has been that the U.S. air quality regulatory policy, and
    indeed, environmental regulation in general, has typically
    relied on command and control regulation. This type of
    regulation mandates technologies or processes, does not take
    advantage of the power of markets, and is therefore by its very
    nature more expensive and less efficient than is necessary.
        In contrast, the President has crafted an initiative that
    will clean our air using a proven market based method.
    Announced in February of 2002, the Clear Skies Act would be the
    most significant and aggressive step America has ever taken to
    cut power plant emissions of three harmful pollutants: sulfur
    dioxide, nitrous oxide and mercury. The proposal, which builds
    upon the highly successful 1990 acid rain trading program, will
    cut emissions by approximately 70 percent over the next 16
    years.
        Clear Skies employs a dynamic approach to regulation that
    mandates specific emission-reduction emission caps, while
    providing managers with flexibility to reduce emissions in the
    most efficient and least costly manner possible. Through a
    market-based cap-and-trade program, Federal emission limits, or
    caps, are set and emissions permits are distributed to
    electricity generators. Managers then have the advantage to
    determine the most efficient means of action; whether it is
    sale or purchase of unused allowances, or banking of credits
    for later use, Clear Skies provides regulatory certainty and
    lays out the timeframes necessary for managers to design a
    cost-effective strategy tailored to both current budget and
    future plans.
        With this structure, we uphold the principal feature of the
    President's initiative, improving air quality more cost-
    effectively, so Americans can continue to rely on clean and
    affordable electricity. Clear Skies will achieve faster
    reductions than in the current Clean Air Act by creating
    incentives for over-compliance and innovation--the means to
    reduce pollution by more than or earlier than required--and
    then those who do so, can generate and sell extra credits.
        The Clear Skies Act will improve health, visibility and a
    diverse range of ecosystems by reducing the emissions of NOx,
    SOx and mercury. In short, Clear Skies will result in dramatic
    progress toward solving our Nation's persistent air quality
    problems.
        As you are well aware, the crucial element of any
    regulatory policy is not only recognition of the benefits
    received from emissions reductions, but also the resource costs
    associated with the policy. Those costs, it must be emphasized,
    are ultimately borne by the citizens, whether by stockholders
    or companies making the reductions, or by consumers of
    electricity, or both. Therefore, the Administration takes the
    economic modeling of Clear Skies quite seriously. In this
    respect, over the past year we have gained better understanding
    of the costs to abate NOx and SOx and the co-benefits
    associated with reduction of mercury.
        Understanding the removal costs associated with mercury is
    still in a bit of an early stage, exactly as the Senators had
    been describing. The goal of Clear Skies is to reduce mercury
    emissions by 70 percent by 2018, with an interim cap of
    approximately a 50 percent reduction by 2010. Mercury emissions
    will be reduced from current levels of approximately 48 tons to
    15 tons in 2018, with an interim cap of 26 tons in 2010.
        Clear Skies is designed to meet the goal of reducing the
    mercury with a trading program that is more cost-effective than
    the program currently required by the Clean Air Act. The
    interrelationship of the cap levels for NOx, SOx and mercury is
    also a very important feature of the Clear Skies program to
    provide much more flexibility, greater regulatory certainty and
    help in planning cycles with the co-benefit of mercury
    reductions from the NOx and SOx emissions controls.
        So in looking at the total resource costs, and looking at
    the cost of mercury removal, I want to talk more during the
    question period about some of the new data that has been
    gathered throughout the EPA's information collection request
    and various pilot programs. What we've been finding is that
    even though there are uncertainties, I just want to highlight a
    couple of the empirical estimates of interest. The first phase
    of the mercury-reduction cap is designed to take advantage of
    the interrelationship of NOx, SOx and mercury emissions and do
    this through SCRs, scrubbers, NOx and SOx controls determining
    co-benefits.
        Our updated analysis suggests that the NOx and SOx limits
    in Clear Skies would lead to estimates of annual mercury
    emissions in 2010 of controls between 34 and 46 tons. What I
    can do is provide you with more details during the question
    period. But just to sum up, the President's Clear Skies
    legislation calls for a 76 percent reduction in power emissions
    during the next decade and a half. The legislation will meet
    the required health based standards laid out in the Clear Air
    Act. It will achieve those results sooner than required at a
    much lower cost to consumers.
        We look forward to working with the committee and Congress
    to create a market based system that will provide early
    reductions and affordable energy prices for consumers. Thank
    you, Mr. Chairman and I look forward to answering your
    questions.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Dr. Kroszner.
        I'll start the questioning off. You stated that Clear Skies
    will achieve faster reductions than the current Clean Air Act.
    Can you explain in greater detail how these provisions will
    work and how quickly you believe emissions will be reduced?
        Dr. Kroszner. What we've done is we have a market-based
    system that gives incentives for early reduction. Unlike the
    uncertainty associated with the so-called MACT that will be
    coming down the line, we have a very clear structure of how
    there will be reductions that need to be occurring by 2010 and
    then by 2018. A clear system of SOx that will give incentives
    for people to start innovating today and reducing today rather
    than spending a lot of time litigating hoping that there can be
    changes in the MACT.
        So I think the market based structure that we have gives
    the incentives for earlier reductions than we otherwise would
    get through the current structures.
        Senator Voinovich. In other words, because of the certainty
    of the provisions of Clear Skies, it will lay out a pattern for
    the future which will make it much easier for people to move
    forward because they'll know what's expected of them rather
    than what we currently have on the books.
        Dr. Kroszner. Precisely. There's a great deal of
    uncertainty associated with the mercury MACT, and there's
    likely to be a lot of litigation associated with that, which of
    course engenders a great deal of uncertainty. Something like
    Clear Skies, which very clearly sets out with legislative
    mandates a very clear time table, provides much more certainty
    for firms to do this, as well as the cap-and-trade program that
    also gives the incentive for early innovations and early
    reductions.
        Senator Voinovich. Several of the witnesses we're going to
    hear today will argue that we need to put a cap on carbon
    dioxide emissions in order to improve the financial health of
    investors. However, the political reality we face in Congress
    is the regulation of carbon will not become law for at least
    some time. That's the lay of the land here.
        Would you like to comment on that?
        Dr. Kroszner. I think it's extremely important to go ahead
    with the Clear Skies legislation. The President is very much
    committed to improving the health of American citizens through
    exactly this kind of means, and improving visibility at our
    national parks and throughout the country. And moving quickly
    and moving today on this legislation is something that is very
    important. We should not delay for other reasons, we should go
    on this. We get much earlier health benefits by moving promptly
    on exactly this.
        Senator Voinovich. There are many of us that realize that
    there is very much concern about carbon.
        Dr. Kroszner. Yes.
        Senator Voinovich. We've been working very conscientiously
    to try and find some kind of a compromise that does not cap
    carbon but would encourage technology and also the
    sequestration of carbon, which is a major problem that we have,
    the lack of it is a major problem today. Has the Administration
    given any consideration to some compromise in this area?
        Dr. Kroszner. I think the Administration's proposal so far
    with the registry system, with the reduction system that we
    have in place, the commitment to reduce intensity by 18 percent
    over time, goes precisely in that direction of trying to deal
    with these issues in a way that is as market based as possible.
    But of course, we look forward to working with Congress as we
    develop and get more information about the costs and benefits
    of carbon and of carbon reduction. The issues are still really
    in a very, very early stage. So I think we need to gather more
    data.
        But obviously as we gather more data, and do more analysis,
    we very much look forward to working with you to see what
    should be done. But I believe that the proposals and the
    program that we have today, with the 18 percent reduction in
    intensity over time, is an excellent way to deal with the
    problems, at least on the science that we have today.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Senator Carper.
        Senator Carper. Thanks, Mr. Chairman, and Dr. Kroszner,
    thank you for being with us today and for your testimony.
        I found your written testimony informative and are verbal
    testimony as well. However, I think it's remarkable in that
    your testimony does not ever mention the issue of carbon
    dioxide or greenhouse gases or climate change or global
    warming. And I'm just wondering, has the Council of Economic
    Advisers conducted an analysis of the impact for the Clear
    Skies Act on, or really any other multi-pollutant bill, and
    what impact those legislation, those pieces of legislation will
    have on CO2 emissions from the power sector? Do you
    think this is an issue that we should consider?
        Dr. Kroszner. We have not undertaken any specific analysis
    of that issue. We've been looking primarily at the three main
    pollutants of NOx, SOx and mercury. So we've been looking at
    the interaction among those primarily.
        That is not to say that carbon isn't a very important
    issue. As I'd mentioned, the President has his plan for the 18
    percent reduction in intensity of carbon emissions.
        Senator Carper. Eighteen percent reduction, could you put
    that in context? Is it 18 percent reduction below what it is
    right now to what it would otherwise be at some date in the
    future?
        Dr. Kroszner. It's 18 percent reduction in the intensity.
    So that is the amount of emissions relative to GDP. So it's a
    ratio.
        Senator Carper. Below the intensity this year? Five years
    from now, 10 years from now? Is it an 18 percent reduction
    below current levels?
        Dr. Kroszner. It is an 18 percent reduction over time from
    current levels. That is my understanding of the program.
        Senator Carper. We'll come back and verify that. In fact,
    let me just ask you to verify that for the record.
        Dr. Kroszner. Certainly.
        Senator Carper. My understanding is it's an 18 percent
    reduction, not below current levels, but below what they would
    otherwise be at some date in the future. And maybe we can
    verify that.
        Dr. Kroszner. Certainly we'll do that for you, Senator.
        Senator Carper. In your testimony, why don't you address
    CO2? I think it's just peculiar, it's an issue that
    is deemed to be important by a lot of people, and you never
    mention it.
        Dr. Kroszner. It certainly is an important issue. I don't
    mean to not mention it, or by not mentioning it say that it is
    not an important issue that we continue to look into and
    continue to spend an enormous amount of resources studying,
    much more than any other country. But I did not realize that
    this testimony was to be focusing in that. I thought it was to
    be focusing on the Clear Skies Act itself. That's why I tried
    to limit myself to focus on the three main pollutants in Clear
    Skies.
        Senator Carper. You stated very directly in your testimony
    that Clear Skies is designed to meet the Clean Air goal of
    reducing mercury with a trading program that I believe you say
    is more cost-effective than the program currently required bay
    the Clean Air Act. Here's my question. What is the cost that
    you're using of the current Act's requirement for comparison
    purposes? And second, what is the cost of the Clear Skies
    mercury program?
        Dr. Kroszner. The cost of the Clear Skies mercury program,
    let me talk just a little bit generally about how we get to
    those costs. What we're doing is looking at the NOx and SOx
    reductions from scrubbers, SCRs, et cetera, using various forms
    of technology. And we do get some co-benefits with a reduction
    in the level of mercury that gets into the sky, simply by
    taking out the NOx and the SOx. And that then gives us
    estimates of how much would be taken out just by the mere fact
    of controlling NOx and SOx based on 2010 and 2018 goals that we
    have in mind.
        Then what we do is say, let's try to see what will the
    costs be of moving beyond the co-benefits if we need to move
    beyond the co-benefits. And currently both the EPA and EIA
    estimates are that the costs to meet the interim goal, 2010,
    would be on the order of $650 million to $700 million per year.
    Both modeling techniques suggest that that's approximately what
    the cost would be to achieve our interim goal of 26 tons.
        Senator Carper. I got lost there in the weeds. I asked two
    questions. Just come back and answer them as directly as you
    can. First, what is the cost that you're using of the current
    Act's requirements for comparison purposes? Because what you're
    asserting in your testimony is that the trading program within
    the Clear Skies initiative is more cost-effective than the
    current Act. What is the cost you're using for the basis of
    your comparison? I think you may have just given me the cost of
    the Clear Skies mercury program. But let me just have both of
    those again, please.
        Dr. Kroszner. Sure. The mercury MACT program, the
    implementation of it, is highly uncertain. So we don't have a
    specific number for the MACT implementation, though we very,
    very strongly believe, and I think it's from past experience
    with other attempts to use something like MACT, is that
    relative to a SOx system, it's going to be much more costly to
    do plant by plant types of controls, use the MACT structure,
    which looks not at cost reduction, but looks at just particular
    technology use.
        So by taking that approach rather than an approach that
    allows for SOx, allows for companies to try to choose the most
    cost efficient means of reducing things, we know that that will
    be more expensive relative to an alternative. But I don't have
    a specific number to give you that.
        Senator Carper. If I could just ask you to attempt to
    respond in writing for the record on the two questions. If you
    could do that, that would be much appreciated.
        Dr. Kroszner. Sure.
        Senator Carper. Thank you. I see my time's expired. Thanks,
    Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Voinovich. Chairman?
        Senator Inhofe. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me read a
    couple excerpts from a letter, since Senator Carper has made
    some requests of the Administration insofar as CO2
    is concerned. This is a letter which I will want to insert in
    the record at this time, but will read just a couple sentences.
    This is from Christine Todd Whitman to both Senator Voinovich
    and myself.
        ``I noted with particular interest the comments by several
    witnesses that we not hold hostage Clear Skies certain and
    aggressive reductions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and
    mercury emissions to a debate on whether carbon dioxide should
    be regulated. The Administration shares these views. As the
    President stated in his March 13th, 2001 letter to several of
    your colleagues, `I do not believe that the Government should
    impose on power plants mandatory emissions reductions for
    carbon dioxide, which is not a pollutant under the Clear Air
    Act.' ''
        [The referenced letter follows:]

        Senator Inhofe. A lot of us have looked at this over a
    period of time and tried to sort out the emotions from the
    science in terms of greenhouse gases, CO2, global
    warming, and go back and looking at it historically when we can
    recall during that 500 year period ending in 1300 which was
    considered to be the medieval warming period, going into the
    little ice age, then going back into a warming period. The
    interesting thing being that that second warming period ended
    in 1940. So we went into a cooling phase. And what happened in
    1940? It was the expanded use of automobiles, CO2
    emissions and all that. Totally contradicts the assumptions
    that many people have, their belief certainty of this whole
    global warming concept.
        So my request is, and I'm asking this on the record in this
    meeting, that if you do go back and do, as Senator Carper is
    asking you to do, evaluate and look at CO2, that you
    take into consideration the fairly new Harvard study of the
    1,000 climate change period. It involved 240 scholars and came
    up and pretty much opened this up and gave new concepts to this
    whole discussion.
        All I want, and I said this on the first day I became
    chairman of this committee, is that we're going to look at
    sound science. We're going to adhere to that. So I'm going to
    ask you to take that into consideration in anything that you're
    doing.
        Now, I mentioned to you in my opening statement that my
    definition on the, by the term co-benefits in the context of
    the mercury provisions, I'd like to have you give us your
    definition or the Administration's definition.
        Dr. Kroszner. I think we're very much consistent with the
    definition that you had given. The co-benefits are the benefits
    of mercury reduction that come along with trying to reduce the
    emissions of NOx and SOx. So those are the ones that by trying
    to meet particular caps on NOx and SOx, you also get in terms
    of mercury reduction.
        Senator Inhofe. That's excellent. I agree with that.
        What are the main drivers that are responsible for the co-
    benefits level of 34 tons for EPA and 46 for EIA?
        Dr. Kroszner. They have slightly different modeling
    approaches. Let me highlight a few of the differences. We've
    been spending the last 6 months really trying to dig deep into
    these models and I really want to very much commend EPA and EIA
    for working so closely together. We've really been running them
    ragged and I really want to praise them for the great progress
    that they have made in helping us.
        Senator Inhofe. And as you do this, if you'd use as layman
    terms as possible.
        Dr. Kroszner. I will try to, since I'm very much a layman
    also in many of these areas. One has to do with the amount of
    mercury removal, getting at this notion of how much mercury
    comes out when you apply these different types of technologies.
    And there seems to be a fair amount of agreement on the two
    sides for bituminous coal. There seems to be enough data and
    similarity of modeling techniques that we'll get roughly 90
    percent reduction from the technologies that we have some
    information on.
        For other types of coal, we don't have quite as much data
    and there's a little bit more difference between the two sides
    on that. So that's one of the areas I wanted to highlight, is
    differences in the two approaches. They make somewhat different
    assumptions about natural gas prices. They make somewhat
    different assumptions about growth in the demand for
    electricity over the next 20 years. And also a little bit of
    differences in the way that they think about the coal models.
    That is the choice of different types of coal to be used. And I
    think there are some differences in the way they think about
    how flexible contracts are and such.
        So I'd highlight those as probably the three or four major
    areas of differences between the two that have led to what I
    would think of as sort of a sensitivity analysis that now gives
    us a range of 34 to 46.
        Senator Inhofe. And it's my understanding that those
    entities are meeting and talking about these differences and
    the outcomes, the results that they're coming up with?
        Dr. Kroszner. Yes. We've had a lot of convergence, and have
    a much, much better understanding for the differences in the
    two models; and EPA and EIA continue to work together. And
    again, I have to praise them for the gauntlet we've kind of put
    them through. I don't think they've ever been asked to work so
    closely together before. And I think both sides have benefited
    quite a bit. This is really how science improves.
        Senator Inhofe. Thank you very much, Dr. Kroszner.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Thomas?
        Senator Thomas. Thank you. I guess I need to pursue that a
    little further. What is the latest estimate that you have then
    of the co-benefits for mercury?
        Dr. Kroszner. Roughly, from the EPA models, we have on the
    order, I'm sorry, for co-benefits----
        Senator Thomas. Reduction in phase one.
        Dr. Kroszner. The estimates coming out of the models are
    that by meeting the SOx and NOx caps by 2010, we would have
    between 46 and 34 tons of mercury still being put into the air.
    That's where we are in terms of the two modeling approaches.
        Senator Thomas. Your original one was what level?
        Dr. Kroszner. The original focus, or the original one using
    less data that we have was one based on EPA in the upper 20's.
        Senator Thomas. Twenty-six, I believe, wasn't it?
        Dr. Kroszner. Yes, the cap is set there. I certainly want
    to emphasize, and this is not a model to minimize what EPA and
    EIA have done, there's always some uncertainty. These are
    really estimates that come out of the models. That's true
    whether it's trying to estimate co-benefits in mercury or
    trying to estimate what economic growth will be in 2010, which
    is another exercise that I do at the Council of Economic
    Advisers.
        So that's why I say, these numbers are estimates, so upper
    20's is roughly where we were, and now we're in the range of
    sort of upper 30's, I would say, upper 30's to low 40's, as the
    reasonable range for where we are.
        Senator Thomas. So that in terms of what the expectation
    will be, then, in the regulation, will be where?
        Dr. Kroszner. The President's proposal has a 26 ton cap in
    2010. What we wanted to do, the request from the committee was
    to try to provide updated information, and we've gathered new
    information from last year, and we're eager to share that with
    you. So we wanted to present that to you. But the President's
    proposal is a cap of 26 tons in 2010.
        Senator Thomas. I guess I don't understand that. If your
    information and data shows one thing, and your President's
    program shows another, how do you reconcile those two things?
        Dr. Kroszner. Obviously we have put forward a program based
    on the best science that we had available at the time, as the
    proposal was put forward in February of 2002. And we wanted to
    provide you with updates on where the science is.
        Senator Thomas. So you'll be supporting an update based on
    the newest data?
        Dr. Kroszner. We support the President's proposal. We think
    it's a very good proposal, of course.
        Senator Thomas. I don't understand that. Tell me what
    you're talking about.
        Dr. Kroszner. But we wanted to provide you with the new
    information. Obviously----
        Senator Thomas. You want us to change it, then, is that it?
        Dr. Kroszner. Occasionally Congress does change things that
    the President puts forward. I know that that does happen.
        Senator Thomas. That does happen, yes.
        Dr. Kroszner. As shocking as it has been to me in my 2
    years in Washington. So of course, we understand that that
    could be a possibility. But the President's proposal certainly
    is with the 26 ton cap in 2010, but obviously we wanted to
    provide you with the updated information.
        Senator Thomas. Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. Dr. Kroszner, when the mercury number
    came to our attention, that the Administration suggested in the
    Clear Skies proposal, many of us were skeptical of that number.
    What you're saying here today is that after working between EPA
    and with the Department of Energy that that number of 26 does
    not reflect the most recent information that you've been able
    to derive in terms of co-benefits, and that is that rather than
    the 26 ton number that the number should be somewhere between
    34 and 46?
        Dr. Kroszner. If you are choosing the number based on the
    estimates of the co-benefits. First, of course, as I had said
    in response to Senator Thomas, there is uncertainty around
    these estimates. So I don't want to say that these are
    necessarily the true numbers that we know with certainty. We
    don't know them with certainty.
        But also, there could be other factors.
        Senator Voinovich. Is 34 better than 26, based on your
    information or not?
        Dr. Kroszner. We have more data, so we have more data than
    we had from before, and I think we've improved our modeling
    techniques over time. But there may well be more considerations
    that come in to making these calls. Because the science brings
    us so far, but there's certainly some uncertainty that is still
    left over. There still may be room for policy judgments that
    come in.
        So I think that it is important to take co-benefits in as
    one very important factor. But it is, I think, one very
    important factor in that it is a policy judgment as to whether
    one wishes to take more factors into account or not. And that's
    why we wanted to make sure to provide you with the information
    on co-benefits. But of course, other factors can come in to
    make the decision on where it's appropriate to put a particular
    cap.
        Senator Voinovich. Have you done any investigation into in
    the event that you had the 26 number in this, whether that
    would cause utilities to fuel switch to natural gas?
        Dr. Kroszner. We've looked into that. Fortunately, the
    flexibility of the Clear Skies policy allows people not to have
    to fuel switch. Projections from both models suggests that
    there would be relatively little fuel switching between coal
    and natural gas over time. It's precisely because of the
    flexibility that Clear Skies allows. So this is not something
    that should be seen as putting to death one type of fuel. It's
    something that I think is very valuable in maintaining fuel
    diversity, which is an important part of our fuel security
    program.
        Senator Voinovich. You haven't really looked at that
    number, then?
        Dr. Kroszner. We have modeled, the models predict whether
    there will be a lot or a little fuel switching. And there will
    be relatively little fuel switching under both models.
        Senator Voinovich. You're saying that the 26 number would
    not cause fuel switching?
        Dr. Kroszner. There would be a small amount of fuel
    switching but not very much. What people will do is, given the
    model's assumption about electricity demand, about the prices
    of natural gas, is that people may choose to pay more for the
    permits, the permit prices would go up. But that might be a
    more effective means of trying to generate electricity than
    switching to gas. So, that flexibility allows----
        Senator Voinovich. So what you're saying is that part of
    the decisionmaking has to do with the price of natural gas?
        Dr. Kroszner. The price of natural gas and the price of the
    permits. So the models both predict what those will be over
    time. Look at the choices that the managers would make between
    choosing to continue to use coal and choosing to switch to
    natural gas. The model suggests that there would be relatively
    little switch between coal and natural gas.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. Thanks, Mr. Chairman.
        Several of us on this panel, there aren't a whole lot of us
    here, but several of us here on this panel are very much
    interested in working on an issue that we're not discussing
    today, but it's an issue that will be before the Senate, and I
    hope fairly soon, and the issue is asbestos. There are, as you
    know, in this country a lot of people who have been exposed to
    asbestos over the years. Many of them have become sick and have
    died. They're not getting the kind of financial help that they
    need. In the meanwhile, a fair amount of money is being
    siphoned off to help people who are not sick and will never be
    sick from asbestos exposure.
        And we're working, Senator Voinovich and I and others are
    working with Senator Hatch. I think Senator Thomas has an
    interest in this issue as well. We're trying to come up with an
    approach to create a trust fund where companies, manufacturing
    companies and others, insurance companies, would contribute
    money into a trust fund from which would be paid claims to
    folks who meet certain medical criteria from their exposure to
    asbestos over the years.
        One of the reasons why companies are interested and
    insurance companies are interested in contributing to a fund,
    creating a trust fund, and contributing a lot of money to it,
    and Senator Hatch was talking yesterday about, I think about a
    $108 billion trust fund that would be created for this purpose.
    One of the reasons why companies are interested in doing this
    is because it provides some certainty for them in an uncertain
    world. One of the lessons that I learned, and I'm sure Governor
    Voinovich learned this long before I did, being one of the
    Governors of our States, in promoting economic development and
    job creation, companies like certainty. And to the extent that
    we can provide that, we ought to. We try to provide a nurturing
    environment for job creation and business development in my
    State, as Governor Voinovich did in Ohio.
        Which leads me to this question, there are a number of
    utilities, one of whom will testify later today, who will talk
    about the value of certainty in their industry, the idea of
    knowing what they're up against in terms of caps on sulfur
    dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, mercury and SO2. In your
    verbal testimony, I don't recall hearing anything about the
    economic value of certainty. It may be there in your written
    materials and I missed it.
        But companies have raised with me and I suspect others on
    the panel the need for certainty. And I'd just like to hear
    from you how you would include that in an economic model. How
    would that be valued?
        Dr. Kroszner. Certainly it's something that economists
    often talk about as a risk premium when there is greater
    uncertainty, greater risk associated with taking one path
    versus taking another. And so of course there has to be some
    compensation for the greater risk or greater uncertainty.
    Typically for, let's say, a riskier firm, if they were to issue
    bonds, they would have higher interest rates associated with
    them. If there's greater uncertainty for the firm itself, there
    is more difficulty in their planning processes, it's more
    difficult for them to think about what they need to do going
    forward.
        So it makes their planning cycle more difficult, it can
    make their planning cycles more difficult for firms to figure
    out where they need to be investing in different areas. So it
    can raise the cost of capital in general if there is greater
    uncertainty, and it can also just make it more difficult for
    firms to move forward to invest, because they're just not sure
    where they should be going.
        Senator Carper. Thank you for that response. How would you
    include that in an economic model, in the work that you do?
        Dr. Kroszner. What it would be is in terms of an economic
    model going forward, let's say, with the challenges that the
    economy may be facing now, we may be seeing less investment
    than we otherwise would be, because of uncertainties about the
    economic future. So one way in which we take it into account is
    that it would reduce overall investment in the economy if there
    are broad uncertainties. If there's much more certainty about
    the direction of the economy, let's say it's a good direction
    for the economy, then of course, managers will be able to make
    plans more easily, they're more likely to go forward and
    increase capital spending plans. So that would be one way in
    which I would take uncertainty into account in an economic
    model.
        Senator Carper. If you want to give it some further thought
    later and want to respond further in writing, that would be
    welcome. Thank you.
        I think I have time for one more. What price signal does
    the President's voluntary emissions intensity approach, and
    that's where we're talking about the 18 percent, and that's 18
    percent below a baseline. There's an increase in the emissions.
    And when you're talking about 18 percent reduction, it is an 18
    percent reduction below the baseline, or projected increase.
    But what price signal does the President's voluntary emissions
    intensity approach send to the markets and to industry about
    reducing greenhouse gases?
        Dr. Kroszner. What it does is it, I believe, provides some,
    the combination of Clear Skies and our carbon plan does provide
    some certainty for going forward and provides an incentive for
    the companies to reduce their emissions. We don't have a
    specific price signal that is out there now, but implicitly
    there will be one that will be developing, the choices people
    make to try to reduce to meet this 18 percent intensity
    reduction. But there's not a specific number that is out there
    now. But there is an incentive that is there.
        Senator Carper. Thanks very much.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. Chairman.
        Senator Inhofe. I have only one question. You say that
    there will be no fuel switching. Is this true for both the EPA
    and the EIA models, or just the EPA?
        Dr. Kroszner. I believe it's for both models that they
    would have relatively little fuel switching associated with the
    President's proposal.
        Senator Inhofe. Thank you. No further questions.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Cornyn, do you have any
    questions?
        Senator Cornyn. Not of this witness. Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Dr. Kroszner, we'll be submitting some other questions to
    you in writing and we'd like you to get back. Senator Carper is
    concerned about some of the responses that you have given. All
    I can say to you is, and to the other people who are coming
    here, when I talk with utility executives, and I have been
    authorized by one of them to say publicly, American Electric
    Power, which is a very large producer of electricity, that they
    will never build another coal-fired facility, and they will
    switch to natural gas unless this situation is clarified for
    them. They are very supportive of the President's Clear Skies
    proposal.
        Thank you very much. We'll have our next panel.
        Dr. Kroszner. Thank you very much.
        Senator Voinovich. While the panel is coming forward, I'm
    going to introduce them and give you a little background on
    them. Our first witness is Dr. Larry Monroe. He's the Program
    Manager of Pollution Control Research and he's speaking on
    behalf of the Southern Company and the Edison Electric
    Institute, EEI. Our next witness will be Dr. Steven Benson,
    Energy & Environment Research Center, the University of North
    Dakota. And our third witness is Dr. Richard Bucher, who is
    here from W.L. Gore and Associates, and was referenced by
    Senator Carper in his opening statement.
        We want to thank you all for coming today and again like to
    remind you, I hope that somebody tipped you off that it's 5
    minutes, and hopefully if there are some things that you didn't
    get out in your statement you can bring them forward in the
    question and answer period.
        Dr. Monroe, we'll start with you.

       STATEMENT OF LARRY S. MONROE, PROGRAM MANAGER, POLLUTION
                   CONTROL RESEARCH, SOUTHERN COMPANY

        Mr. Monroe. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Senator Carper,
    Senator Cornyn. My name is Larry Monroe, and I work for the
    Southern Company. The Southern Company is a regional energy
    company serving some 4 million customers in the southeastern
    United States. I'm a chemical engineer and I work on finding
    effective emissions control technologies. I'm also speaking
    today on behalf of the Edison Electric Institute.
        The state of power plant mercury control technologies is
    still in its infancies. There are no commercial technologies
    available. By that, I mean there are no vendors that are
    offering a process to the industry that includes a guarantee of
    performance. There are two near-commercial technologies
    available, the first is coke control by flue gas
    desulfurization systems, also called scrubbers, installed to
    control sulfur dioxide, called SO2, and perhaps
    aided by nitrogen oxide, NOx controls. And the second of these
    technologies is activated carbon injection.
        Mercury can exist in three forms at the exit of a power
    plant: the elemental vapor, the ionic form or attached to fly
    ash as particulate mercury. The form of the mercury in the flue
    gas determines how easily it can be removed.
        Now to the first of the near-commercial processes, coke
    control by SO2 removal, and possibly NOx removal
    processes. The most common sulfur dioxide control process is
    the wet scrubber, where powdered limestone and water are mixed
    with flue gas to remove SO2. The ionic form of
    mercury is soluble and is also removed with relatively high
    efficiency in these scrubbers. Therefore, the amount of mercury
    control in the scrubber depends on how much ionic mercury is
    present, which is highly dependent on how much chlorine is in
    the coal.
        The coals in the eastern U.S., mostly bituminous coals,
    contain significant amounts of chlorine and therefore produce
    maybe 60 percent ionic mercury. And the scrubbers in the
    limited testing done to date can remove as much as 90 percent
    of that, for a total mercury removal of 55 percent.
        However, the coals found in the western U.S., mostly
    subbituminous and lignite coals, are naturally low in chlorine
    and produce only about 25 percent ionic mercury, which means
    that a scrubber would only remove about 22 percent of that
    mercury.
        Claims have been made based on German research and now
    tested in the U.S. that selective catalytic reduction systems
    installed to reduce NOx converts some of the remaining
    elemental mercury into the ionic form, the form that can be
    captured in scrubbers. Testing conducted thus far appears to
    show that these NOx reduction systems do appear to help with
    the mercury chemistry but only for eastern bituminous coals and
    not at all for subbituminous and lignite coals. Studies at a
    very limited number of power plants suggest that this
    combination of NOx and SO2 controls for plants
    burning eastern bituminous coals may increase the 55 percent
    mercury scrubber capture to around 80 to 90 percent, when a
    selective catalytic reduction system for NOx control is added.
        However, the low chlorine content of the western
    subbituminous and lignite coals apparently prevents the
    selective catalytic reduction system from oxidizing the
    mercury, so the combination of NOx and SO2 controls
    remains at the 22 percent mercury, due to the scrubber alone.
    Let me emphasize that these estimates in mercury reductions are
    based on tests at only 10 plants, less than 1 percent of the
    1,140 plants in the country. Therefore, we have no way of
    knowing how many plants will be able achieve these States
    performance numbers.
        The second near-commercial technology for mercury control
    in power plants is activated carbon injection. The very first
    full scale test of any mercury control process in the Nation
    was a test of activated carbon injection performed at a
    Southern Company plant, Alabama Power's Plant Gaston. I would
    be happy to give more details about activated carbon injection
    in the question and answers.
        Finally, recent modeling by EPRI suggests that U.S. utility
    emissions of mercury are only a small contribution to
    deposition of mercury in the continental United States.
    Significant reductions of utility emissions will only reduce
    deposition in the U.S. by about 1.5 percent and will only
    decrease exposure of the most sensitive population, that is
    women of child bearing age, by one half of 1 percent in the
    year 2020 as compared to 1999.
        In summary, there are no commercial technologies that I can
    buy to control mercury emissions from power plants. The two
    most promising, coke control with scrubbers, and maybe
    selective catalytic reduction, and activated carbon injection,
    are under investigation but still need further testing under
    various coal types, geographic locations and operating
    conditions. Both seem to work better for eastern bituminous
    coals, leaving us with no good technology choices for western
    subbituminous and lignite coals.
        Southern Company and EEI understand that some mercury
    reductions will occur as SO2 and NOx control systems
    are installed. But we can only guess at the exact amount. More
    testing and research is needed. Any regulatory program for
    mercury reduction must consider the state of the technology,
    the costs and the energy impacts of meeting the requirements.
    Failure to follow the right path will lead to significantly
    increased costs, further switching from coal to natural gas for
    power generation, and possible disruption of the Nation's
    energy supply.
        I would be glad to answer any questions you might have.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Dr. Monroe.
        Dr. Benson?

    STATEMENT OF STEVEN A. BENSON, SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER, ENERGY
          AND ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER, UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA

        Dr. Benson. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, members of the
    subcommittee, for the opportunity to testify and share
    information on mercury control technologies and challenges for
    western lignite and subbituminous coals. My name is Steve
    Benson and I'm a Senior Research Manager at the Energy and
    Environmental Research Center at the University of North
    Dakota, where we have conducted research on mercury measurement
    and mercury control technologies for approximately the last 20
    years.
        The first thing I'd like to do is cover two main points.
    The first is that the west produces over 50 percent of the coal
    in our country. And aggressive regulation could put western
    utilities and their customers at a serious economic
    disadvantage. The second point is that the configuration of
    western plants suggests that there is not a one fit for all
    solution to mercury control technologies in the west.
        As Dr. Monroe mentioned, the form of mercury emitted from
    power plants is dependent upon the composition of coal. Western
    coals contain low amounts of chlorine and produce mostly
    elemental mercury in the flue gas. Western coals also contain
    high levels of calcium and sodium oxide that tie up the
    available mercury, further increasing the elemental form of
    mercury.
        As compared to eastern bituminous coals that have higher
    levels of chlorine, the levels of the oxidized mercury in the
    flue gas dominates the form of mercury. The problem with
    elemental mercury is that it is not very reactive, and cannot
    be captured with most existing flue gas pollution control
    equipment. This represents a significant emission reduction
    challenge for western coals since a cost-effective commercial
    system for effective capture of elementary mercury is not yet
    available.
        The most common western plant control configurations
    include electrostatic precipitators and fabric filters for
    particulate control and wet and dry scrubbers for sulfur
    control. Selective catalytic reduction for NOx control are not
    very common.
        Currently research is underway on technologies for reducing
    mercury emissions from low-rank coal or western coal-fired
    power plants. These include activated carbon injection,
    upstream of existing electrostatic precipitators and fabric
    filters, oxidation of elemental mercury by chemical addition or
    catalyst for capture by wet scrubbers and dry scrubbers, and
    also some emerging novel approaches, such as mercury absorption
    by noble metals and other means.
        The results to date have been varied. Existing research
    suggests that mercury removal by particulate and sulfur control
    is two to three times lower for western low ranked coals than
    for eastern bituminous coals. Fabric filters were the only
    particulate control device that appears to remove appreciable
    amounts of elemental mercury. But this has only been
    accomplished where the chlorine levels are sufficiently high,
    which is not typical of low-rank coals.
        The technical challenges that need to be addressed include
    decreasing the quantity of carbon necessary to control mercury
    emissions, decrease in the impact of chemical additives on
    boiler corrosion, understanding ash blinding of catalytic
    oxidation systems, and the understanding of the impacts of coal
    variability. Western coal variability and composition,
    especially for lignites, has humbled many researchers and
    technology developers, including myself, in the past.
        Most of the current research and development efforts have
    been conducted on a pilot scale. Long term field tests are
    needed to confirm the technical and cost-effectiveness of the
    most promising technologies and approaches. In addition, for
    any technology to be effective, we need continuous, reliable
    mercury monitors to measure both oxidized and total mercury
    species in the flue gases.
        An additional issue is that fly ash produced by many
    western coal-fired power plants is a valuable by-product
    producing a revenue stream. The use of activated carbon reduces
    the usefulness of this product and may require returning the
    fly ash and carbon materials back to landfills. Thus, in
    addition to the cost of activated carbon disposal costs would
    be incurred.
        As I previously noted, cost-effective commercial mercury
    control technologies are not available for western lignite and
    subbituminous coals where the mercury is in the elemental form.
    Although an aggressive research and development program is
    being pursued, it is doubtful a cost and technically effective
    control technology will be available by 2007, an EPA regulatory
    target.
        In summary, aggressive control targets could seriously
    disadvantage western utilities and their customers who rely on
    affordable power. Currently there is no commercially available
    technologies that can be applied to control mercury emissions
    from western coal-fired power plants. Significant additional
    research is required to prepare the western utility sector for
    implementation of mercury control standards.
        Thank you. I would be glad to answer any questions.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Dr. Bucher.

      STATEMENT OF RICHARD BUCHER, W.L. GORE AND ASSOCIATES, INC.

        Mr. Bucher. Good morning, Chairman Voinovich, Ranking
    Member Carper and members of the subcommittee. My name is
    Richard Bucher and I'm here to speak on behalf of W.L. Gore and
    Associates about some exciting technical advances that may
    offer a solution to the vitally important challenge of reducing
    mercury emissions.
        Gore is a leading company in the field of advanced
    materials that provide creative solutions to longstanding
    problems. We believe that a new mercury capture system we have
    developed and that has been recently tested at the EPA may well
    offer dramatic improvements in the effectiveness, efficiency
    and cost of mercury capture from flue gas. We are excited by
    this development as an improvement of this kind in mercury
    control could greatly contribute both to the long term
    sustainability of power generation from coal and to the health
    of all Americans.
        My employer, W.L. Gore and Associates, best known as the
    maker of Gore-Tex fabric, has built a reputation since the
    1970's as a leading supplier of high performance filtration
    devices to our Nation's industrial applications. Beginning in
    the 1990's, Gore scientists and engineers have discovered and
    developed a series of radical improvements to our filters
    through embedding additional materials and properties into the
    structure of the filters that makes them work.
        These advances have led to new applications for capturing
    over 99.99 percent of fine particulate to catalytically
    destroying over 99 percent of carcinogenic dioxins and most
    recently, for capturing over 90 percent of mercury in flue gas
    streams. The result is a cleaner, safer, healthier environment
    and more sustainable industry.
        Our invention in the area of mercury capture has moved well
    beyond the lab bench and shows dramatic promise for the future.
    The key to our technology lies in an increased capacity to
    capture and hold mercury, which allows the mercury collection
    function as illustrated in this figure to be moved from a
    consumable, as with activated carbon on the left, to a system
    component. That's with the Gore technology shown on the right.
        The Gore system, which employs the same filter bags as the
    activated carbon system as shown here, employs the same filter
    bags for particulate control as a filter insert on the inside
    of the filter which contains the mercury control functionality.
    This system means that end users don't need any additional
    system infrastructure such as activated carbon silos or
    injection equipment or space. The fly ash is free of
    contamination, allowing plants to continue to sell as opposed
    to landfill this valuable by-product of the coal-fired
    industry.
        And finally, the system is completely passive in nature.
    Once installed, it is always operating, continuously protecting
    the air we breath. It does not require additional operators,
    maintenance or monitoring.
        Initial bench scale studies of our technology conducted at
    the EPA research facility in North Carolina demonstrate an
    unprecedented level of mercury capture, efficiency and capacity
    as illustrated in this figure. On the Y axis we have mercury
    capacity of absorbent, on the X axis we have various
    technologies. The red bars represent the absorbent capacities
    of activated carbons as reported in the literature, and the
    blue bars represent the advances made with the Gore technology.
    Some of these cases are up to two orders of magnitude or 100
    times more efficient at capturing mercury.
        Following this success, our most significant testing to
    date was conducted at the EPA on their pilot scale coal
    combustion unit. The 7 week trial with 24 hour operation was
    designed to test the long term viability of the technology
    under a variety of conditions. As shown here in this figure,
    mercury concentration of the flue gas is on the Y axis, various
    conditions on the X axis. The red bar is showing the amount of
    mercury coming into our filters. The blue bar is showing the
    amount of mercury leaving our filters. And again for a variety
    of conditions, both with western subbituminous coals and
    western lignite coals.
        These results, assuming further successful field
    verification, will allow coal burning facilities to easily
    comply with the most stringent regulations set forth in the
    Clear Skies Act of 2003 and the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003.
    Our mercury technology is being designed to provide the
    benefits stated above, while potentially costing considerably
    less than carbon injection.
        For example, activated carbon injection for a 110 megawatt
    facility, projected the EPA to cost $700,000 per year. When the
    lost revenue of unsalable fly ash is included, those numbers
    inflate to a range from $1.1 million to $1.5 million per year.
    Current estimates our technology could be 38 to 83 percent
    lower than those estimates, making our approach much easier to
    implement and more cost-effective.
        Although we have not begun marketing this technology, our
    interactions with prospective customers have been nothing short
    of extremely encouraging. Owners and operators have expressed
    enthusiastic support of the concept, citing the ease of
    implementation, minimal impact on system performance, and most
    of all, the preservation of fly ash value, which is so critical
    to their bottom line.
        I appreciate the opportunity to testify before you today
    regarding the important issue of mercury emissions control.
    W.L. Gore and Associates remains committed to developing
    innovative, economically feasible technology to address our
    Nation's air quality challenges. We look forward to continuing
    to work with the committee, the EPA and the coal-fired power
    industry to make this technology a commercial reality. Thank
    you again for allowing me to testify, and I'd be pleased to
    answer any questions you may have.
        Senator Voinovich. I thank all of you for your testimony
    this morning.
        The big question that we're laboring with is the issue of
    the tonnage that we have in the mercury requirement and the
    Clear Skies legislation. And as I mentioned earlier, there were
    many of us that were skeptical about those numbers, and feel
    that the more recent numbers coming from the EPA and from the
    Department of Energy are more reflective of reality. That's No.
    1.
        No. 2, there's obviously a difference of the three of you
    in terms of the state of technology. Mr. Bucher, you have
    testified that you've got some new technology here and that
    it's a lot more reasonable than the activated carbon. What is
    the difference in terms of the capital investment in regard to
    this, to the other technologies that are available? In other
    words, to install, we talked about the cost of operation, but
    what about the initial capital improvement? I'd be interested
    in that. And in addition to that, also the issue of how much
    testing has gone into this to the extent that the two other
    gentleman at the table here are a little skeptical about
    whether or not there is technology out there to deal with the
    particular coal that they've mentioned here at the table.
        Mr. Bucher. Certainly. The two approaches that I've
    outlined both include, most facilities today do not have a
    baghouse. The EPA has assumed that most facilities would adopt
    a baghouse, whether they're using activated carbon injection,
    that they pose as being the most cost-effective solution. Their
    numbers, which I based those annual yearly expenses, include
    capital expenditures, amortized over a period of years. So it's
    the total ownership costs of both technologies, to answer your
    first question.
        To answer your second question, all the testing that we've
    done to date up until about 1 month ago has been confidential
    in nature. We have not shared it widely with the industry,
    which would explain why most people you would ask about mercury
    control from coal would not be familiar with our technology. We
    have done a 7-week long test at the EPA, like I mentioned,
    which is a short test but in the field of mercury control a
    relatively long test.
        And it, granted, is on a small, pilot scale facility
    roughly the size of this room. We realize that more extensive
    testing is going to be required in the field, real facilities.
    And we have some plans in place to have that testing start
    beginning in the late summer to fall time period.
        Senator Voinovich. I think the real question is that if you
    were a utility and got a new technology, the real issue would
    be how good is the testing and for how long and how much does
    it cost and what do your bankers think of it.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Voinovich. Dr. Benson or Dr. Monroe, would you like
    to comment?
        Dr. Benson. I think the key thing that we look at when we
    consider a technology that's out there and commercially
    available is that it has been demonstrated in the field for
    sufficient amounts of time. I guess that is the key. And pilot
    scale systems have their limitations. They don't always
    represent the variability of the fuels that you may see and
    they also may not represent the flue gas compositions that
    you're concerned with.
        Senator Voinovich. Dr. Monroe?
        Mr. Monroe. Specifically on this technology, I would just
    mention that only about 14 percent of the Nation's power plants
    have this baghouse technology installed at present. So that
    would require additional capital investments.
        From my point of view, from a utility, I'd rather capture
    the mercury in a co-benefits, in a scrubber sort of system,
    whether an SCR is available or not. If I install a scrubber on
    a 500 megawatt plant, sort of a medium size plant, that's $75
    million to $100 million investment for that. If I have to add a
    selective catalytic reduction system for NOx, that's an
    additional $50 million to $60 million. And to add the baghouse
    on top of that would be yet another increment of capital of $20
    million to $30 million.
        So I'd rather avoid that capital expense if I can perfect
    another technology. Once I have a baghouse, then to me it's a
    commodity question, does this technology work better, cheaper,
    faster that activated carbon.
        More generally, I'd just like to point out----
        Senator Voinovich. Let me see if I understand this. What
    you're basically saying is that you would get the scrubber and
    you'd get the SCR and try to get the best that you could from
    co-benefits and probably not invest in a baghouse, does that
    have to do with the activated carbon thing, the baghouse?
        Mr. Monroe. Yes.
        Senator Voinovich. OK. And that's what you try to do. And
    if that wasn't good enough, then you'd have to probably go to
    the activated carbon and the baghouse, and then at that stage
    of the game, you'd probably want to be looking at what Mr.
    Bucher is talking about?
        Mr. Monroe. That's correct. Particularly in the current
    regulatory business as usual, in a MACT case, I may have to
    control mercury on every power plant. So I may install more
    baghouses under a MACT scenario than I would under Clear Skies.
        I want to return to the testing, just to state that the
    electric utility industry is somewhat unique. We have to make
    the power as soon as someone needs it. We don't have any way to
    store it, aside from a few sort of off-peak storage systems
    there. So we require our equipment to run 100 percent of the
    time. Most industries, if you're talking about a refinery or
    chemical plant, typically design their equipment for 90 percent
    availability, so that it runs 90 percent of the time. It's not
    as crucial if they have to shut down their process to fix
    something as it is in the electric utility business,
    particularly in Atlanta, Georgia, in the middle of an August
    afternoon.
        So we require much more testing. We require more robust
    designs and long term testing before we can accept that
    equipment, just due to that unique nature of our business.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. Gentlemen, thank you all very, very much
    for illuminating testimony and I think in some respects very
    encouraging testimony.
        Before I ask some questions of our witnesses on this panel,
    Mr. Chairman, I'd like to submit for the record a report from
    the Northeastern States for Coordinated Air Use Management.
    It's entitled Environmental Regulations and Technology:
    Controlling Mercury Emissions from Coal-Fired Boilers. It was
    published in September of 2000. The report examines the
    feasibility and the appropriateness of mercury control issues.
        It concludes by stating that past experience suggests that
    further delay in the regulation of mercury emissions from power
    plants cannot be justified on the basis of concern about
    technology availability. On the country, delay is likely to
    stall efforts to advance promising control technologies. Mr.
    Chairman, I would ask that a copy of this report be included in
    the record, please.
        Senator Voinovich. Without objection.
        Senator Carper. Dr. Bucher, let me ask sort of a follow-up
    question here from your testimony. What will happen to the
    promising technology that you've described and that we've seen
    demonstrated visually here, what will happen to this kind of
    promising technology if we simply pick a mercury cap that can
    be achieved due to co-benefits of controlling sulfur dioxide
    and nitrogen oxide?
        Mr. Bucher. Senator, I go frequently in front of our
    leadership at Gore in order to state the case for the business
    potential. And obviously they have many options on where to
    invest their funds for research and development. If we were not
    able to paint a clear case of potential market that it's going
    to be available and that we'd be able to sell our product into,
    it would be very difficult for them, justify it for me to ask
    for increased funding and additional research and development.
        Senator Carper. Dr. Monroe commented a bit on the
    feasibility and cost-effectiveness of implementing the kind of
    controls you were talking about. He mentioned the price of
    baghouses and all. Would you just think of it and just sort of
    respond to any thoughts that come to mind in response to what
    he's talked about. In the end, they've got to be able to
    produce electricity in ways that are cost-effective. We
    understand that. Would you just care to respond to anything he
    said?
        Mr. Bucher. Certainly. And clearly I see Dr. Monroe's
    point, that if you have a wet SGD scrubber system you can add
    an SCR for NOx and you can get those benefits that you need for
    mercury. That may be an attractive way to go. However, the
    EPA's reports are indicating that that is not always going to
    be the preferred technology. You're not always going to be able
    to achieve those mercury caps with those technologies. Their
    analysis has shoed that for most of these western coals that
    we're talking about, the subbituminous and the lignite, those
    systems, the most economically attractive solution is a
    baghouse with activated carbon injection. That's why we use
    that as the basis for our report to show how we could save
    those customers money over that solution.
        Senator Carper. When I visited with you and Chris Koons and
    others of your associates at W.L. Gore back in, I think it was
    January, you described another project. I think you referred to
    it as an advanced hybrid, as I recall. I believe it required,
    it removed almost 100 percent of, I think it was small
    particles, maybe 99.9 percent from coal exhaust. How is that
    different from the mercury technology that you've described
    here today, and what is the status of that advanced hybrid
    technology in the marketplace?
        Mr. Bucher. You're speaking of the advanced hybrid
    technology actually that the EERC, which Dr. Benson is from,
    was the inventors. Gore is the party that is commercializing
    the technology.
        Senator Carper. Dr. Benson, you were present at the
    creation?
        Dr. Benson. One of my colleagues actually did the
    development.
        Mr. Bucher. That technology, as you mentioned, is focused
    on controlling the fine particulate. It's really a more, it's
    attempting to be a more cost-effective solution than a
    traditional baghouse, as I picture it up there. An interesting
    story about when we first brought that facility up and running
    in Big Stone, South Dakota is, many of the operators, when they
    reported to work those first several mornings after the system
    went on line, they came into the control room and said, what's
    wrong? Why aren't we operating?
        Because they had come to work and every day for 20 years,
    they come to work and they'd see smoke coming out of the
    smokestack. This time they showed up to work, there was no
    smoke, so they said, the plant's not operating. The controllers
    said, well, we're at full load. Just an indication of the
    ability of these advanced technologies to control emissions far
    beyond what it has been in the past.
        And they're continuing to operate, right now actually that
    facility is down for a week of maintenance and they will be
    coming on line about a week from now.
        Mr. Monroe. If I might comment.
        Senator Carper. Dr. Monroe, please.
        Mr. Monroe. We are currently testing at one of my plants a
    competition to that device, using similar principles that was
    invented by the Environmental Protection Agency out of their
    North Carolina laboratories jointly with Southern Research
    Institute, a not-for-profit in Birmingham. So it's very
    intriguing technology to us, also.
        Mr. Bucher. And if I can add one more thing onto that, our
    mercury control technology is being designed to work with the
    traditional pulse chip baghouse, our advanced hybrid baghouse,
    or the co-pack baghouse that Dr. Monroe's referring to.
        Senator Carper. Mr. Chairman, I'm going to have to learn
    more about baghouses. Thank you all. I hope we'll have a second
    round here.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Cronyn?
        Senator Cornyn. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and I want to
    commend you for calling this hearing today on this very
    important subject, and thank all the witnesses for being here
    and sharing your expertise.
        I know the Administration has put a lot of work into the
    Clear Skies initiative, and I'm grateful for their efforts. I
    think the framework proposed has potential, but I'm concerned
    about unintended consequences and maybe getting out ahead of
    the science before Congress seeks to impose some requirement
    that ends up being impossible to meet or certainly not possible
    within the economies involved.
        But I'm hopeful that technology will ultimately provide
    some answers. But I guess my concerns, gentlemen, largely focus
    on two areas. One is the importance of maintaining fuel
    diversity. And second, on mercury removal. And I want to ask
    you in a minute about the technology, more about the technology
    that you talked about in terms of meeting the regulatory burden
    that would be imposed by the bill.
        But in my State of Texas, as no doubt you know, coal,
    specifically lignite coal, must remain a viable energy source
    for Texas utilities. Forty percent of electricity in Texas is
    powered by coal. And I'm not convinced that there's enough
    natural gas there to counter-balance a drop in coal usage,
    particularly given the limitations that we've imposed on access
    to probable reserves of natural gas.
        So we find, what I don't want us to do is find ourselves in
    a catch-22 where we get out ahead of technology, and I'm not in
    any way demeaning the promise, indeed, I'm hopeful, Dr. Bucher,
    that you and others are able to finally perfect the technology
    that will accomplish the goals that you seek. But I don't want
    to be in a position of imposing a requirement by law that
    results in reduction in fuel diversity and a dependence on
    ever-shrinking forms of energy and in the process, making
    electricity so expensive to consumers that it creates
    additional problems.
        I've been repeatedly told by Administration officials that
    they think the technology will be available in the future to
    accomplish mercury removal. But I'm struck by the speculative
    nature, really, that tell us where we are at this point. And I
    know Dr. Bucher, your company, which I read is credited with
    producing Gore-Tex and other remarkable inventions, that you
    have maintained this technology as confidential given the
    proprietary reasons which I certainly respect, and you're not
    marketing this technology.
        But I just would be interested, perhaps, to hear from each
    of you of the consequences of Congress imposing a standard
    today that there is not currently technology available to meet.
    Dr. Monroe, maybe you can respond to that first, please.
        Mr. Monroe. We're sort of acutely aware of that problem,
    with the given regulatory program, with the MACT for mercury
    that we're struggling now, how do we continue to make coal-
    based power without these technologies available. I share your
    worry about fuel diversity. The southeast that my company
    serves is more heavily dependent than Texas on coal. We also
    burn, probably a third of the coal that we burn comes from the
    Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming, so that issue is
    very important to us also.
        We see the speculative nature of we hope the technology is
    ready in time. We hear it again and again, the NESCAUM report
    that Senator Carper refereed to is sort of an article that
    reads that if you make a regulation, then the technology will
    suddenly appear. Now, I'm a good engineer. My job is to make
    things cheaper every day, for my company. And so I work as hard
    as I can, and the regulations make me work to do that. But we
    could look at other examples of sort of technology approaches
    that didn't work. Fusion is one. The nuclear-solar sort of
    power that was always 10 years away and had been that way for
    40 years running, the new kind of nuclear power plant.
        Another example would be California's zero-emission
    vehicles, where they've just continued to redefine what those
    are and have never really reached the levels that were mandated
    by a State regulation there.
        To get directly to your point, it really does scare us in
    the power industry to think we're racing toward some
    regulations or some legislative solution where we don't have
    the technologies, so that we're struck with a grim choice of
    not providing power to our customers or in violation of the
    law.
        Senator Cornyn. I take it that you're not an eleemosynary
    institution that's involved in providing charitable services in
    the form of electric power. I guess there are economic you have
    to contend with in all of this.
        Mr. Monroe. That's correct. And you know, being a regulated
    utility, I have State governments looking over my shoulder
    second guessing every move I make, also.
        Senator Cornyn. Dr. Benson, would you care to comment on
    the challenges that are presented when Government mandates a
    standard for which technology is not currently available to
    achieve that standard?
        Dr. Benson. From the perspective of somebody that does the
    research and testing of the technologies, I think there's many
    technologies out there that show promise, like W.L. Gore
    technology.
        Senator Cornyn. Don't get me wrong, I hope you're
    successful, ultimately. I'm talking about passing a law this
    sessions. So that's my concern.
        Dr. Benson. I think there are many technologies. It takes
    time, and there are many technologies in the laboratory right
    now and in the pilot scale that show some promise. There are a
    lot of issues that must be overcome with those technologies to
    move them into the demonstration stage. Once the technology
    shows the ability to have good performance during
    demonstration, the information can be used to develop
    performance guarantees. In addition, we need to understand
    impacts of the fuel variability issues on the performance of
    these technologies.
        Senator Cornyn. Dr. Bucher, let me change the questioning
    just briefly a little bit and make sure I understood what you
    said correctly. Did you say that basically it's difficult for
    your company to get financing for a technology for which there
    isn't a currently mandated requirement?
        Mr. Bucher. I think I may have misled you there a little
    bit.
        Senator Cornyn. I just want to give you a chance, I want to
    be fair to you and let you explain what you meant, if I
    misunderstood.
        Mr. Bucher. Certainly. I appreciate that.
        Not difficult for us to obtain financing, difficult for our
    leadership, who's looking at a portfolio of places to invest
    their research and development money. They're going to put that
    in the area where they feel they're going to have the largest
    chance for return. I'm a firm believer in our capitalistic
    system. And if the opportunity is there, it's so much easier
    for me to go in front of them and say, this is a great
    opportunity for not only us as a company, but for us to meet
    some of the needs of the Nation. So without that carrot, so to
    speak, it becomes difficult for them to embrace these kinds of
    programs.
        Senator Cornyn. Thank you for clarifying that.
        Mr. Chairman, my only concern would be imposing a standard
    and then just hoping and praying that there will ultimately be
    a technology available. That's my primary concern. Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. I share your concern.
        Dr. Monroe, I'm sure you're aware, my State of Ohio relies
    a great deal on burning of coal, both from our part of the
    country and from some other parts. I'm really concerned about
    the whole issue of fuel switching. That's something that's very
    paramount in my thinking as the former Governor of the State of
    Ohio, and I'm concerned about the environment for our
    manufacturers.
        Last year I had some real problems with Senator Jeffords'
    legislation on the four Ps, and my concern was that if it went
    into effect that it would force our utilities to switch to
    natural gas. Natural gas already today is really under stress,
    and the cost is escalating, in fact I think it's one of the
    reasons some of our businesses are in trouble today, because of
    the high cost of natural gas. And if we add to that problem
    fuel switching, I can see a lot of our industries either
    closing down or going some place else. That's not the United
    States, somewhere else in the world.
        With the revelations expressed by the Administration on co-
    benefits and your extensive knowledge of the industry and
    technology available in regard to mercury emissions, what do
    you think would happen to the utility sector, and you're
    talking also for EEI, if the Clear Skies Act was passed as it's
    introduced?
        Mr. Monroe. First, talking for Southern Company, we support
    the approach of Clear Skies. We would like to be working with
    the Administration and working with Congress on some of those
    details about the timing and the levels. EEI has a slightly
    different position than Southern Company on that.
        Assuming it was passed as written, focusing specifically on
    mercury issues there, the SO2 and the NOx issues
    are, as Chairman Inhofe mentioned earlier, there's not much
    uncertainty about NOx controls and SO2 controls. We
    know what they cost. We know how they perform, although my
    company's been surprised as well as AEP, with the installation
    of selective catalytic reduction systems, with unintended
    consequences of those. So it's still not risk free for NOx.
        Senator Voinovich. You're talking the SCRs?
        Mr. Monroe. Yes.
        Senator Voinovich. Yes. I'm well aware of that with the
    plume that they had. They actually had to buy out a town in
    order to eliminate a problem from that plume.
        Mr. Monroe. Our problem has been slightly different. We
    have stopped up the catalyst. It has small holes about a
    quarter inch in diameter, several million in the gas flow pad,
    and we stopped every one of those up and had to shut the plant
    down for that. So there are still risks there.
        For mercury, as given the cap that's in place now, it would
    certainly cost more than I think most people think at the
    moment, because it would require an alternative to just the SCR
    for NOx and the SO2 scrubbers to do the additional
    mercury control. So that then we would be very interested in
    W.L. Gore's technology. We would probably be looking at
    building baghouses for, not for particulate control, which we
    do a good job at, but only to add something, whether it's that
    technology, activated carbon or something that's invented in
    the meantime, some absorbent to just capture the mercury.
        So that instead of getting sort of the benefits of the
    other investments that would require additional investments. It
    would make our coal plants more expensive to operate. We would
    probably shut down some of our marginal coal plants on that
    basis, and it would be yet another push for us to burn more
    natural gas.
        Senator Voinovich. Dr. Benson, do you want to comment on
    that?
        Dr. Benson. I agree with Dr. Monroe.
        Senator Voinovich. Well, in other words, what you're saying
    is, one of the things we're looking at is that we've got the 26
    tons and we're talking about increasing that to 34 or between
    34 and 46. How much of a difference would that make in terms of
    your situation?
        Mr. Monroe. The cost to the industry would probably measure
    in the several billion dollars a year for that additional
    increment, because of the additional baghouses and activated
    carbon.
        Senator Voinovich. So what you're saying is that 26
    probably, that would mandate the baghouses and the activated
    carbon and that approach? And let's say, 34, that would not
    require that?
        Mr. Monroe. I'd have to say that we do not know what that
    number would be. The problem we have is we've tested very few
    power plants. I can't tell you what that tonnage would be. It's
    certainly more, the co-benefits will leave us with emissions of
    certainly more than 26 tons. I think the range expressed by the
    Administration, 34 to 46, is probably in the ball park
    somewhere there.
        Having worked with EPA on assumptions in their modeling,
    and they're proposing the 34 ton model, my opinion is, and
    again with my bias being a utility engineer, I think the
    technology is not quite as aggressive, it won't work quite as
    well as EPA. So I would tend to look at the higher end of that
    range.
        Senator Voinovich. Well, the next issue is that if you had
    it at 34 rather than 26, how much influence would that have on
    the decisionmaking of people like Mr. Bucher and his company?
        Mr. Monroe. It would simply be the extent of the market
    penetration of these other technologies that will add to the
    co-benefits. Certainly from an electricity price, if we have to
    do any more to get to the 34 tons, then the 26 would cost even
    that much more. It puts more pressure on the western coal
    users, whether they're in the west or actually buy the coal
    from the west, just because of the technologies that are
    available there.
        The one thing that the Clear Skies approach does with the
    SOx is allow utilities like mine to take some risks on
    technologies. If I try a risky technology for mercury on a
    trading program, theoretically I can buy my way out of a
    failure by going to the market and buying those allowances, as
    compared to sort of a strict command and control MACT scenario,
    where I'd have to meet it at every plant. So that that scenario
    is much more costly, because I can't afford to take any risks
    on the technology, so I buy the most robust and therefore the
    most expensive.
        Senator Voinovich. So the SOx is essential for you to have
    the flexibility to move on this area?
        Mr. Monroe. Yes.
        Senator Voinovich. Well, I think that we're not going to
    get that done today, we want to hear from the other witnesses,
    but I'd like to really get a sense of, if you went from 26 to
    34, what it would have in terms of moving forward on new
    technology. Also then, you needed to look at the environmental
    benefits that you would get from the difference. That's
    something we haven't talked a lot about today. But maybe it's a
    subject of a hearing in terms of mercury and what it's
    contributing. I read half of it's natural and then half of it's
    caused by us, and a lot of it's caused by utilities. And do we,
    is there free mercury in the air.
        In know one of the things in my State, because in our lakes
    we discourage people from eating our fish, particularly
    pregnant women, more than once a month or something because of
    the fact there's concern it might influence their baby. And so
    I need just a whole lot more information in that area. Because
    that's what we're trying to look at, is we're trying to improve
    again, getting back to harmonizing. We want to provide readily
    available low cost energy so that we can have a good economy
    and be competitive in the global marketplace. At the same time,
    we have to balance that in terms of our environment, public
    health and what we know in that arena. That's the real
    challenge that we have here sitting at this table.
        Mr. Monroe. If I can make a few comments. I'm not a human
    health expert, I'm an engineer. But I follow that debate in the
    mercury issue. And I would encourage you to hear some more
    about the science of that. There's controversy about what low
    levels of mercury, and incidentally the only route of interest
    is actually through the consumption of fish for humans. That is
    the only thing we worry about for mercury exposure.
        And there's two competing studies on health effects that
    sort of come to different conclusions. A follow-up to one of
    them was just published in the Lancet which cast some doubt on
    whether the referenced dose that EPA has set forward is, it
    suggested it may be much more conservative than necessary.
        So I would encourage you and be happy to help supply
    suggestions for witnesses.
        Senator Voinovich. I hope it's better than what we're
    getting on the issue of greenhouse gases and global warming.
    We've had several hearings on that, and if you listen to one
    side, it's one way, and you listen to the other side, it's
    another way. I've always found usually somewhere in between is
    where it really is.
        Senator Carper. We're not yet in full agreement on the need
    to address greenhouse gases and global warming. But at least,
    Mr. Chairman, and I suspect Senator Cornyn as well are in
    agreement that SOx needs to be in whatever bill we enact.
    That's a good thing.
        Dr. Monroe, I think you said earlier, I've just been
    thinking about this during the course of this conversation,
    that, are you a chemical engineer?
        Mr. Monroe. I am.
        Senator Carper. And a utility engineer as well. Thinking
    about all the work that lies ahead for your industry, I just
    think, you've got pretty good job protection.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Carper. That's got to be a comforting thing.
        Mr. Monroe. It's the best time to be in this job and at the
    same time the worst time to be in this job.
        Senator Carper. Our sons are 13 and 14, and we're talking
    about what they're going to be when they grow up. I'm going to
    walk away from this conversation thinking more about maybe
    chemical engineering as a promising field.
        Earlier in your testimony, you referred to the NESCAUM
    report that I asked to be made part of the record. There was a
    question of whether or not, if we set a standard, a regulatory
    standards, somehow that incents industry to come up with ways
    to meet that standard. You used, I think, fusion as an example
    and said that it's always been 10 years away for the last 40
    years. I would just, and I know I've heard that a lot myself,
    but fusion was never a regulatory requirement, which is an
    interesting point, never a regulatory requirement.
        I would make another one of those unanimous consent
    requests while the chairman is not listening to me, and----
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Carper. While he's talking to his close colleague
    and associate over there, Mr. Chairman, I'm sorry to interrupt,
    but I am going to ask, Senator Lieberman is not here today,
    he's not going to be able to join us. He's given me a statement
    he'd like submitted for the record. If we could do that, I'd
    appreciate it, and he would too. So I'd ask unanimous consent.
        Senator Voinovich. Without objection.
        Senator Carper. Thank you, sir.
        [The prepared statement of Senator Lieberman follows:]

     Statement of Hon. Joseph I. Lieberman, U.S. Senator from the State of
                                  Connecticut

        Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate your convening today's panel
    on investor risk and climate change. While over the past few years we
    have already heard from many witnesses about the range of promising
    technologies to control pollutants from power plants, we have not yet
    heard about these issues from the perspective of investors. I am
    particularly pleased that Denise Nappier, the esteemed treasurer of my
    State of Connecticut, was invited to speak on this matter. I trust she
    will give an eloquent and persuasive presentation. As you well know,
    Mr. Chairman, I have long been concerned about the growing threat of
    global climate change and our nation's resistance to taking credible
    action to counter it. The science is now overwhelming and indisputable:
    carbon dioxide emissions are heating up the planet, and the longer we
    do nothing, the worse it will get. That is why I have introduced the
    Climate Stewardship Act with Senator McCain-the only legislative
    proposal on the table that would actually stem the increase of our
    nation's greenhouse gas emissions-and, with Senator Jeffords, have
    introduced the Clean Power Act, which would cut the emission of major
    pollutants from the nation's power plants.
        But the Bush Administration's do-nothing policy on climate change
    is much more than a mammoth environmental problem. It also creates two
    other kinds of problems.
        First, a foreign policy problem. Just this Tuesday, a troubling
    poll from the Pew Center for the People and the Press confirmed once
    again that our great nation's stature in the world is shrinking. Some
    attribute our loss of stature solely to the war in Iraq, but that's
    just not the case. Removing Saddam Hussein was the right thing to do,
    and much of the world will come to respect us for acting on principle.
    No, the core problem is that the world sees an American administration
    that on a broad range of issues is happy to lecture but not willing to
    listen. As Tony Blair has said, America must not only speak to the
    world. To truly lead, we must hear the concerns of our friends and
    allies, including the outpouring of concern about climate change and
    the consequences of America, the world's largest emitter of carbon
    dioxide, doing nothing to stem it. The fact is, America produces about
    a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, but under the Bush
    Administration's neglectful watch has shown an unwillingness to produce
    any of the world's climate change solutions.
        Second, the Bush Administration's neglectful approach to climate
    change creates a big economic problem. The ongoing regulatory
    uncertainty produced by the Bush Administration's refusal to act leaves
    businesses waiting, wondering, and spinning their wheels rather than
    making the long-term investments today that they would make if they
    were confident of how government would approach this problem. When it
    comes to climate change laws, businesses deserve more than instructions
    to place their fingers in the wind. They deserve an answer from us in
    Washington so that they can get down to the business of serving their
    customers, producing profits, and creating jobs.
        Institutional investors see the problem quite clearly. Treasurer
    Nappier, for instance, is the steward of some $17 billion in pensions
    that are the nest egg of Connecticut's working families. Unfortunately,
    as we will hear from her, her ability to invest that money wisely has
    been impaired by the now chronic uncertainty surrounding what
    companies' obligations will be to abate climate change.
        Mr. Chairman, my staff has talked with many investment analysts on
    Wall Street who tell the same story. There is a general understanding
    that constraints on greenhouse gases are an inevitable fact of the
    future. Analysts understand the size and the scope of the global
    warming problem and understand that America cannot keep its head in the
    sand forever. They understand that the climate is changing and
    executives are willing to invest in solutions-but they will put off
    those investments if they think the regulatory climate will keep
    changing each step of the way.
        The Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES), a
    coalition of environmental, investor and advocacy groups, has long
    warned us of the strong link between climate change and investment
    risk. In its April 2002 report, Value at Risk: Climate Change and the
    Future of Governance, CERES warned that ``there is mounting evidence
    that failure to respond to the risks posed by climate change could
    result in multi-billion dollar losses for U.S. businesses and
    investment portfolios.'' The report found a pressing need for corporate
    leaders and institutional investors to tackle climate change more
    aggressively, noting that ``it is increasingly evident that the costs
    of inaction are likely to far outweigh the costs of action.'' The
    report went further to state that ``climate change represents a
    potential multibillion dollar risk to a wide variety of businesses and
    industries. It should, therefore, command the same level of attention
    and urgency as any other business risk of this magnitude.'' Mr.
    Chairman, I ask unanimous consent for this report to be entered into
    the record.
        The World Resources Institute also released a recent evaluation of
    the effects of climate change on shareholder value, in this case the
    value of oil companies. WRI found that different oil companies were
    positioned very differently on this issue, depending on how each
    company had hedged its risks in anticipation of policies to address
    global warming. For the companies that had acted wisely, WRI saw little
    impact; for those that had not done so, WRI saw a loss of more than 6
    percent in shareholder value. Mr. Chairman, I ask unanimous consent for
    this report to be entered into the record as well.
        Finally and most recently, CERES conducted a yearlong dialog among
    experts in the electric power sector, investors, and environmentalists
    on the issue of climate change. The resulting report, The Electric
    Power Sector, Investors, and Climate Change, due to be released today,
    concludes that the inevitable rise of carbon-regulating legislation,
    along with the direct financial consequences of climate change,
    justifies corporate and investor action. This problem, CERES has found,
    crosses industry and sector lines, and presents serious risks for all
    corporate shareholders alike.
        Climate change is real and must be addressed. The heat is on the
    Administration to do something, do something decisive, do something
    credible, and do something soon. What John McCain and I have proposed
    is a moderate, measured, and market-based response to get us on the
    right track without creating a shock to our economy. It would help, not
    hurt, businesses crying out for a hint of what is to come. It would
    improve America's stature in the world. And most of all, it would
    protect America from the growing environmental threat posed by global
    warming.
        Senator Carper. I wondered if I could start off with Dr.
    Benson on this. A couple of times in the testimony today I've
    heard the term fly ash used. It sounds like it's a product for
    which there can be some value, or not. We have a large coal-
    fired utility, electric utility in the southeastern part of
    Delaware. And if anybody in the audience has ever been to
    Bethany Beach or Rehoboth Beach or Dewey Beach or Fenwick
    Island, or any of those great Delaware beaches, you've been not
    too far away from the Indian River power plant, which uses a
    lot of coal and create electricity for the DelMarVa peninsula.
        They create fly ash as a by-product of their operation. And
    the fly ash has elements in it, mercury among others, but it
    doesn't have a commercial value and it has to be landfilled,
    which is not inexpensive. And instead of having the ability to
    sell fly ash and make some money off of it, they have to figure
    out what they're going to do with it, and it costs money to
    landfill it. God only knows what kind of potential hazards that
    will pose for us later in this century.
        Dr. Benson, any comments that you'd like to share with us
    no the cost-effectiveness of, or the economic value of dealing
    with fly ash and the stuff that goes into it, the mercury and
    what are the benefits for some of the new technology that we're
    talking about here with respect to resale of taking a waste
    product and turning it into something that has market value?
        Dr. Benson. The ability to utilize fly ash in various
    products, such as cement, use it for cement replacement, use it
    in other types of building materials, is dependent on the fuel
    composition, which dictates the fly ash composition. For
    western coals, there's a lot of calcium in the fly ash, so it's
    a great cement replacement material. By adding, for example,
    carbon based materials, it decreases the ability to utilize the
    ash, because the carbon interferes with the ability of the
    concrete formation process. So that's one of the issues.
        So you want to look for alternative sorbent technologies,
    if there's another mercury sorbent, such as calcium silicate or
    something else that can be used, that does not interfere with
    the cement making process. Also the W.L. Gore technology, which
    does not use a sorbent or a carbon material, does not interfere
    with the process of utilizing the material.
        The mercury that's absorbed into the fly ash based on our
    testing is fairly stable. We've heated the material up over 200
    degrees to 300 degrees Centigrade and the mercury stays in the
    fly ash. So it seems to be stable once it gets there, with most
    technologies that we've been studying.
        Senator Carper. Dr. Bucher, I think you made some mention
    of fly ash in your testimony. Would you just go back and expand
    on that a little bit, at W.L. Gore, when you're thinking about
    how to make a product or a process that will have a return on
    your investment, how does this issue of turning fly ash into a
    marketable commodity figure in?
        Mr. Bucher. It figures in very strongly. As Dr. Benson
    indicates, some facilities today sell their fly ash, and as you
    indicate, some facilities do not. When we go and visit and talk
    to some of the plants that are currently selling their fly ash,
    when they think about one, not being able to get the revenue
    from selling it, and then two, paying someone to put it in the
    ground in a landfill, it's a very considerable delta that just
    drives them to find any solution that they can other than
    having to contaminate their fly ash.
        So it's things like that that provide avenues for creative
    technologies to come in and solve those problems in a way that
    provides extra benefits to those customers, giving them further
    reason to employ, and as Dr. Monroe says, take some chances on
    some new technologies, because it will provide them that value
    in the end.
        Senator Carper. Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Cornyn?
        Senator Cornyn. I don't have any further questions, Mr.
    Chairman.
        Senator Voinovich. I want to thank you very much. This has
    been very, very fascinating, and it's certainly been helpful to
    me and created some more questions that I need to get answered.
    Thank you very much.
        Our next panel, and I'll introduce them as they're coming
    forward because of our time limitations, and I apologize to
    them for their long wait. First is the Honorable Denise
    Nappier, Treasurer of the State of Connecticut. Dr. Margot
    Thorning, who's the Chief Economist for the American Council
    for Capital Formation. Mr. Wes Taylor, President of Production
    of TXU Energy. Mr. Jim McGinnis, Managing Director of Morgan
    Stanley. Mr. Douglas Cogan, Deputy Director, Social Issues
    Service, Investor Responsibility Research Center. And Mr. Mark
    Brownstein, Director of Enterprise Strategy, PSEG Service
    Corporation.
        The chairman suggested that we try to--well, make sure that
    your testimony is within the 5 minutes. We would like to have
    some questions asked today and we're probably going to have to
    wrap up this hearing by 12:30 at the latest. Again, we
    appreciate your presence here.
        We're going to start out with Denise Nappier, who is the
    Treasurer of the State of Connecticut. We're very happy to have
    you with us today.

    STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE DENISE NAPPIER, TREASURER, STATE OF
                              CONNECTICUT

        Ms. Napper. Good morning, Senator. I appear before you as
    an institutional investor and the principal fiduciary of a $17
    billion pension fund representing 160,000 beneficiaries and
    plan participants. As Treasurer, I'm elected by the people of
    my State who like millions of Americans, seek to ensure their
    families' economic future through investments in the capital
    markets.
        I appreciate the opportunity to testify about the
    relationship between climate change, corporate governance and
    the well-being of institutional and individual investors.
        I know that you have testimony from others more expert than
    I on the science of climate change, so I won't go there. But I
    will share with you the perspective of an institutional
    investor who has the responsibility, the fiduciary
    responsibility, to consider the long term value of our pension
    funds.
        We have all learned about a number of very painful but very
    valuable lessons following Enron and the corporate scandals
    that followed. We must not allow ourselves to lose sight of
    those lessons. We've learned about the disastrous impact on our
    investment savings, on our jobs and on the economy.
        That is when transparency, accountability and an honest
    assessment of risk is not viewed by companies as priorities. As
    institutional and individual investors, we need accurate and
    complete disclosure information that could affect the current
    and future health of the companies we invest. And that goes
    beyond accounting to include among other things climate change
    as a risk factor.
        Now, the consequences of those companies that do not act
    responsibly today and take steps to assess and mitigate the
    risks associated with climate change can be quite devastating.
    For example, companies could face the prospects of losing their
    competitive edge, incurring litigation costs or being saddled
    with unforeseen capital expenses just to name a few. And all
    these factors, all of these factors and others, can erode
    shareholder value and place today's seemingly solid investment
    in jeopardy.
        Now, climate change may well be about our planet's future.
    But it is also about the financial risks to corporations and
    the impact on the retirement savings of millions of Americans.
    As a result, we have every right, as shareholders, to know what
    is being done about it and how America's corporations will
    protect their bottom line and thereby the value of our
    investments.
        I believe that this issue is quickly becoming the leading
    edge of the next wave of corporate governance issues, and that
    the marketplace must begin to closely scrutinize companies to
    determine whether they have honestly, directly and thoroughly
    evaluated climate change as a risk factor and developed a
    proper response to it. In finance, where there is risk there
    can also be reward. A report by the Rose Foundation last year,
    the Environmental Fiduciary, reviewed the findings of a number
    of studies on this issue and concluded that in many cases,
    improving environmental performance provides a measurable boost
    to profitability and shareholder value, especially over the
    long term.
        So we have a real opportunity here to not only protect our
    shareholder value, but also to achieve added value. Now, while
    you in Congress are debating the merits of a legislative
    response to climate change, such as whether or not to enact
    mandatory caps on carbon emissions, other nations are preparing
    to implement the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol, which
    include mandatory provisions.
        Many of these companies in which we invest, particularly
    companies such as GE, Exxon-Mobil and Chrysler, operate in a
    global economy. For them, carbon regulation is not a future
    possibility, it is an imminent reality. And many State
    governments are also considering and enacting legislation
    addressing climate change.
        Now, beyond the regulatory environment, shareholders are
    now advancing this issue. This year, resolutions on climate
    change were introduced at 23 U.S. companies and the Connecticut
    pension fund filed two of these and co-filed on a third.
        Shareholders are asking companies to report on their
    greenhouse gas emissions, or to set a goal to reduce emissions
    or to report on the potential future financial risks to the
    company from their past, present and future emissions and to
    issue a plan to mitigate that risk. Some of these resolutions
    were withdrawn after productive discussions between
    shareholders and management. However, you should know that most
    of the resolutions were opposed by management and the
    directors. That opposition may prove to be shortsighted. That
    is penny wise and pound foolish.
        At an annual shareholder meeting of American Electric
    Power, and I realize that my time--I need to wrap up.
        Senator Inhofe [assuming the chair]. I'm sorry. We'll have
    to go on to Dr. Thorning. Dr. Thorning?

     STATEMENT OF MARGO THORNING, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF
           ECONOMIST, AMERICAN COUNCIL FOR CAPITAL FORMATION

        Ms. Thorning. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate the
    opportunity to appear before this committee to comment on the
    impact of the Clear Skies Act and the proposals to cap carbon
    on the financial health of the utility sector.
        First, the Clear Skies amendment is, while a challenge for
    the utility industry and in the judgment of many, not likely to
    significantly imperil the financial health and well-being of
    the utility industry. Carbon caps on the other hand are a
    different story. Some proponents of carbon caps suggest that
    this will give certainty to the investing community.
        I think that the argument is flawed for three reasons.
    First, the goalposts are not likely to stay the same. The Kyoto
    Protocol targets, which were just discussed and which are
    similar to the targets in Senator Jeffords' bill, are not
    likely to hold. The European Union is already moving beyond the
    Kyoto target. Proponents of climate change measures there are
    suggesting targets of perhaps 60 to 70 percent reductions in
    CO2 by the year 2050 will be required. And that's
    what they'll be discussing at the COP 9 meetings in Italy this
    fall.
        So the goalposts are likely to shift, thereby increasing
    investor uncertainty and making it difficult for utilities to
    plan capital structures. If we go down this path of carbon
    caps, there will be increasing pressure from the European Union
    to try to keep up with them in terms of the targets that they
    are suggesting should be adopted.
        Second, U.S. firms, if they accept these carbon caps, will
    be held to them. We have a different regulatory structure in
    the United States compared to the European Union. In Europe,
    there is much more flexibility between regulators and the
    regulated. Utility companies that fail to meet their emission
    targets, and by the way, Europe is not on target to meet its
    Kyoto targets, are likely to have much more flexibility and not
    face the draconian penalties that U.S. firms would face if they
    failed to meet their targets. It's another source of
    uncertainty.
        Third, as energy prices rise, if we put in place carbon
    taxes, the demand for electricity, the product is likely to
    fall as energy intensive sectors move abroad at an even quicker
    rate than they really are and consumer demand and industry
    demand falls. That's another source of uncertainty for the
    utility community, the demand for their product.
        A better approach, I think, is based on the one the Bush
    Administration is advocating, which is an 18 percent reduction
    in greenhouse gas emissions per dollar of GDP over the next
    decade, compared to the 14 percent baseline forecast. One way
    to help achieve that goal is to take a hard look at U.S.
    Federal tax policy. A study that the American Council for
    Capital Formation Center for Policy Research commissioned
    recently showed that out of 14 countries, the U.S. has the
    slowest capital cost recovery for investments in energy assets.
    I ask you to note Table 1 in my testimony which I'd like
    included in the record. Table 1 shows that, for example, for
    transmission investments and transmission assets, U.S. investor
    only gets 29 cents on the dollar back after 5 years, whereas in
    Brazil they get 50 cents back on the dollar. In China, they get
    $1.04 back on the dollar. They are subsidizing those types of
    investments.
        Similar story for combined heat and power and for
    investment in other energy assets. So as the Treasury study in
    the year 2000 suggested, because of the increasingly
    competitive nature of the utility industry, we need to take a
    hard look at the class lives and depreciation schedules that
    are provided for investments in those assets and speed them up,
    with a goal of making it easier for companies to make the kind
    of expenditures that will let them reduce CO2.
        Finally, I think we need to recognize that climate change
    and addressing the potential threat of climate change is a
    global problem. Imposing carbon caps on one industry and one
    country or even in the industrialized world will make virtually
    no difference in global concentrations of CO2 in the
    next hundred years. Because the growth in emissions, for
    example, 84 percent of the growth in CO2 over the
    1990-2010 period is coming form China and Indian. So instead,
    we need a global solution that helps transfer existing
    technologies for clean coal and other energy sources to the
    developing world, so that they can try to meet the aspirations
    of their population for faster economic growth, as well as
    emitting less CO2 and other emissions.
        Senator Inhofe. We'll have to cut it off at that point.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Inhofe? During question and
    answer time, you'll both have an opportunity.
        Mr. Taylor.

     STATEMENT OF WES TAYLOR, PRESIDENT OF PRODUCTION, TXU ENERGY
                             NORTH AMERICA

        Mr. Taylor. Chairman Inhofe, Senator Carper, Senator
    Cornyn, my name is Wes Taylor and I'm President of Production
    at TXU Energy North America.
        I appreciate the opportunity to appear at this hearing and
    provide TXU's perspective on Senate Bill 485, focusing on the
    capital investment ramifications of emission reductions. As one
    of the Nation's largest energy providers, TXU made
    environmental stewardship a corporate priority long ago. Since
    1990, TXU has added more than 2,600 megawatts of generation
    with zero air emissions. Our commitment to renewable energy has
    increased to the point where we are one of the largest
    purchasers of wind energy in the Nation.
        TXU has been among the Nation's leaders in the voluntary
    reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, eliminating, avoiding or
    sequestering CO2 emissions by more than 193 million
    tons since 1991. TXU has decreased its rate of SO2
    emissions by 38 percent, decreased its rate of NOx emissions by
    70 percent and our SO2 and NOx emission rates remain
    below the national average.
        Despite these significant accomplishments, more remains to
    be done. TXU supports President Bush's efforts to reduce
    SO2, NOx and mercury emissions through a three
    pollutant framework such as that used in Senate Bill 485.
        I want to emphasize that this legislation must not cause
    the shutdown of power plants, which are vital to our Nation's
    electricity infrastructure, and also must not cause fuel
    switching that could impair fuel diversity and adversely impact
    our Nation's economy. TXU has a credible basis for issuing this
    caution. Our company has been an industry leader in the
    reduction of SO2 and NOx emissions. We are very
    familiar with available control technologies and have a good
    understanding of both the cost and the effectiveness of these
    controls.
        Unfortunately, S. 485's provisions regarding mercury
    emissions go well beyond co-benefits in phase one and the
    control technology to achieve these reductions is unproven and
    undeveloped. Therefore, no one has the ability at this time to
    fully evaluate the costs associated with controls necessary to
    achieve the mercury emission limitations contained in the bill,
    and this significant financial uncertainty may have the
    unintended consequence of causing plant closures or fuel
    switching rather than investing in SO2 and NOx
    control technology.
        The adverse economic impacts of such actions may be totally
    disproportional to the harm sought to be addressed by S. 485.
    The EPA itself states that less than 1 percent of global
    mercury emissions are produced by U.S. power plants. So I urge
    the committee to proceed with caution and understand all the
    facts concerning the economic and other impacts created by the
    public policy contained in this legislation.
        I have submitted a prepared statement with additional
    details. I am also submitting for your use the 2002
    environmental review of TXU, which contains details on our
    SO2 and NOx emission reduction programs and
    documentation of our exemplary environmental record.
        I respectfully request that my prepared statement and this
    report be included in the record of this hearing. In closing, I
    again want to thank you for the opportunity to be here and I'll
    be pleased to respond to questions.
        Senator Inhofe. Thank you, Mr. Taylor. And for all of you,
    your complete statement will be made a part of the record.
        Mr. McGinnis.

     STATEMENT OF JIM MC GINNIS, MANAGING DIRECTOR, MORGAN STANLEY

        Mr. McGinnis. Mr. Chairman, thank you. Senators, good
    morning. My name is Jim McGinnis, I'm a managing director of
    Morgan Stanley, the investment banking division, with
    responsibilities in providing advice on capital raising,
    restructuring and mergers and acquisitions involving companies
    in the energy sector.
        Senator Carper, you might be interested to know my wife and
    I make our home in Greenville, Delaware, although my office is
    in New York.
        Senator Carper. I know that.
        Mr. McGinnis. I focus my work on power and energy
    providers, utilities and on regulated competitors alike through
    a 14 year period characterized by nearly continuous and
    episodically chaotic structural change in this sector. The
    utility and power generation energy is a large user of investor
    capital at some $800 billion of institutional and individual
    investment dollars deployed in the Nation's power and gas
    utility and generation sectors.
        Yet despite that large number, investor sensitivities to
    smaller incremental cash-flows requirements for debt repayments
    or new capital spending can sharply affect any individual
    company's access to capital. And an event related swell of
    concern in the market can and has in the past 12 months
    effectively cutoff access to capital for even large companies
    for significant periods of time.
        I believe that this investor sensitivity drives a basic
    need for clarity in multi-emissions legislation. Capital
    providers to the industry can be expected to react poorly to
    financially significant expenditures required of utilities and
    unrelated generators in the context of potentially shifting
    requirements, on proven technologies and uneven regulatory
    treatment. This need for clarity has heightened importance now,
    at a time when industry participants have been roiled by
    unprecedented financial disruptions and failures, and by
    persistent uncertainties elsewhere in the public policy arena.
    Investors and company leaders are currently wrestling with an
    unprecedented variety of fundamental uncertainties, State by
    State changes and policies related to industry restructuring,
    purchase power contract disputes, as in California, accounting
    standard revisions related to energy purchasing, hedging and
    trading activities, uncertainty over aspects of currently
    pending legislation such as PUHCA reform, FERC transmission
    policy, transmission siting rules and transmission tax policy
    on transfers and ownership, and certain aspects of bankruptcy
    code reform, just to name a few.
        One important attribute of legislation to reduce power
    generator emissions which supports the objective of clarity is
    the abundance of market signals from freely traded emissions
    allowances. Allowance trading improves the ability of affected
    companies to make clear choices as to the most cost-effective
    of various strategies they can employ in meeting emissions
    reduction strategies targets, and promotes capital efficiencies
    when capital is scarce.
        Now a few comments on financial stress in the industry. The
    electric sector is in the midst, though perhaps the trailing
    end, of the worst ever period for credit rating deterioration.
    Since January 1, 2002, we have seen 232 separate rating
    downgrades, some of multiple rating categories at one time
    versus 18 rating downgrades. These downgrades are a symptom of
    massive investor losses on bonds and bank loans to companies in
    the sector and the merchant power generation marketing in
    particular.
        Also during the 2 years ending March 31, 2003, equity
    losses for investors have been staggering as well. I won't
    repeat some of the numbers that have been included in my
    written statement.
        There are related impacts on utilities from the recent
    merchant power sector value destruction episode. In recent
    years, statewide restructuring in California, New York,
    Illinois, Texas, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Washington, DC. has
    resulted in large legacy generation portfolios of certain
    incumbent utilities to be transferred in those locations to
    unregulated power merchants, many of which have experienced a
    sharp decline in financial strength, and are counter-parties to
    the host utilities in meeting their demand needs for legacy
    customers.
        Thus in evaluating legislation to reduce power generator
    emissions, which envisions one of the Nation's most ambitious
    private investment programs ever conceived, I would submit that
    the committee members examine several important market
    dynamics, multiple critical uncertainties in upcoming energy
    policy decisions, uncertainties related to fuel costs and
    availability and generally the weakened financial capacity of
    the industry's generation participants.
        Thank you.
        Senator Voinovich [resuming the chair]. Thank you very
    much.
        Mr. Cogan.

       STATEMENT OF DOUGLAS G. COGAN, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF SOCIAL
            ISSUES, INVESTOR RESPONSIBILITY RESEARCH CENTER

        Mr. Cogan. Thank you, Mr. Chairman and members of the
    subcommittee. My name is Douglas Cogan. I am the Deputy
    Director of Social Issues for the Investor Responsibility
    Research Center. I'm honored to have this opportunity to share
    with you an investor perspective of clean air legislation,
    especially as it concerns climate change.
        Our Nation's electric utilities account for 40 percent of
    America's and 10 percent of the world's man-made CO2
    emissions. Addressing climate change necessarily involves this
    industry. Companies and investors that ignore this fact do so
    at their own peril. Investors loath uncertainty, as you know.
    Certainty will not be achieved until carbon dioxide is
    recognized as an emissions source that will be managed and
    controlled.
        Electricity providers are poised to invest tens of billions
    of dollars to reduce power plant emissions of NOx, SOx and
    mercury. The concern of many investors is that the value of
    these investments may be compromised if they fail to address
    CO2 emissions as well. A more prudent and certain
    approach would be to consider these four emission sources
    together as part of an integrated strategy.
        Consider what Jim Rogers, chairman and CEO of Cinergy, one
    of the Nation's largest coal burning utilities, told this
    committee 2 years ago. He said, ``Who will make a decision to
    invest a billion dollars in a new coal plant if you can only
    guess about future regulation? A new power plant today that
    fails to address CO2 will be as dated in 5 years as
    current law is today.'' Investors have raised this issue with
    electric utilities over the last 10 years through the filing of
    shareholder resolutions. With mounting support from large
    pension systems and endowments, shareholder support for
    corporate disclosure on climate change has increased
    dramatically.
        At three of the Nations' largest electric utilities, AEP,
    TXU and Southern, the support level has reached almost 25
    percent for the resolutions voted on in the last annual meeting
    season. Today you are hearing testimony about processes
    electric utilities use to analyze capital investment decisions
    relating to emissions control. Such analyses involving
    scenarios and decision trees are part of good governance
    practices with respect to climate change.
        Yet when it comes to investor disclosure, these analyses
    are not yielding much useful information. Statements appearing
    in form 10(k) filings of electric utilities typically say that
    management is unable to predict the impact of the Bush
    Administration proposal or related climate change legislation,
    and that possible material impacts cannot be determined at this
    time. Such statements offer neither comfort nor guidance to
    investors. But they are typical in terms of the statements that
    we see in securities filings. That is one reason why
    shareholder resolutions seeking more information from
    management on climate change are setting record proxy votes.
        Companies working with investors can take several steps to
    improve governance practices on climate change. IRRC in a soon
    to be released report commissioned by the CERES coalition of
    investor and environmental groups identifies 14 specific
    governance actions. I will highlight three vitally important
    ones here.
        First, companies should provide regular assessments of the
    climate change issue to shareholders, based on systematic board
    reviews of company financial risks and opportunities. Second,
    companies need to set CO2 emissions baselines and
    provide annual emissions data to investors, so they can gauge
    prevailing emissions trends. Most important, utilities should
    be making forward-looking disclosures of their CO2
    emissions. Investors cannot begin to make meaningful
    evaluations of the impacts of clean air legislation called here
    as the most aggressive clean air initiative in our history,
    until they have access to this forward looking information.
        Congress can facilitate this process by requiring utilities
    and other major carbon emitters to report not only past
    emissions data but also future projections in their securities
    filings. To be fully transparent in this disclosure, aggregate
    emissions data, as well as emissions intensity ratios, should
    be provided.
        The most helpful thing Congress can do, however, is to
    establish once and for all that carbon dioxide is an emission
    source that will be managed and controlled. Many investors see
    this coming. Regardless of the targets and time tables, this
    act alone will provide essential guidance for investors and
    company directors who now have climate change on their
    corporate governance agenda.
        Thank you for this opportunity to testify.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Mr. Brownstein.

     STATEMENT OF MARK S. BROWNSTEIN, DIRECTOR, ENTERPRISE STRATEGY

        Mr. Brownstein. Mr. Chairman and members of the committee,
    good morning. I'm honored to be here this morning to represent
    Public Service Enterprise Group and the Clean Energy Group.
        PSEG is a diversified energy company with over $25 billion
    in assets and over $8 billion in annual revenues. Among the
    assets we own are 13,000 megawatts of electric generating
    capacity operating or under construction in New Jersey, New
    York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana. Clean Energy
    Group is a coalition of companies with more than 100,000
    megawatts of generation capacity nationwide including coal,
    oil, gas, nuclear and renewable. The members of CEG, ConEdison,
    Entergy, Excelon, KeySpan, Northeast Utilities, PG&E National
    Energy Group, Sempra Energy and ourselves, are committed to
    promoting progressive environmental policies that are
    economically sound and sustainable.
        PSEG, which celebrates its 100th anniversary this week, has
    long believed that environmental performance is one indicator
    of overall business performance. That being said, our eye is
    never off the bottom line. In our view, environment and
    economics are inseparable and as with many things in life, the
    secret to success is finding the right balance.
        If you remember only one thing from what I say here today,
    please remember that one word, balance. For PSEG and CEG, the
    single greatest value to be derived from Federal multi-
    pollutant legislation, aside from the public health and
    environmental benefits themselves, is certainty. And the best
    way we know to achieve certainty is through a public policy
    outcome that strikes the right balance between environment and
    energy policy objectives.
        I'm aware that this is the third hearing that you've held
    on the many questions surrounding multi-pollutant legislation,
    and I'm also aware that various stakeholders have come before
    you to argue that the current proposals on the table either go
    too far or don't go far enough. From day one, our goal in this
    debate has been to seek and encourage consensus. For we believe
    that it is only through consensus that we can achieve the kind
    of regulatory stability essential to the health of our
    industry.
        You've heard from others here today about the importance of
    certainty, and I echo that concern. This is a very capital
    intensive industry, where large investments are made in assets
    that last 30 years or more. Making large bets on the future is
    an inherently risky proposition, and no amount of legislative
    activity on your part can offer us 100 percent certainty.
        But to the extent that the trajectory of future
    environmental requirements looms large in the planning of any
    major player in our industry, you can make a significant
    difference by crafting legislation that clearly articulates
    expectations over the next 15 years, at least. The past two and
    a half years have been a tumultuous one for our industry. And
    we don't need any more excitement.
        But where some people might argue that now is the wrong
    time to set new environmental requirements, we would argue that
    to take this do nothing approach would be to kill us with
    kindness. Whether you believe that the current oversupply of
    generation and capital crunch will last two or 5 years, the
    fact of the matter is that current market conditions in our
    industry are part of a cycle. At some point, hopefully soon,
    companies like ours will begin to make new investments in our
    Nation's energy infrastructure. And when we do, it is critical
    that we have clear understanding of the environmental
    requirements we will have to meet. Otherwise, I feel we will be
    making suboptimal investments.
        Nowhere is this more true than on the issue of carbon
    dioxide regulation. First off, let me state for the record as
    we've said many times in the past, PSEG believes that President
    Bush was right to reject the Kyoto Protocol. The reductions
    contemplated under that agreement demanded too much, too fast
    for our industry and our economy to handle.
        At the same time, we think the issue of climate change is
    real, and we believe a domestic regulatory response is both
    necessary and inevitable. Given that our industry is singularly
    responsible for over a third of the Nation's greenhouse gas
    emissions and 10 percent of the global greenhouse gas
    emissions, we cannot and should not dodge this issue. With this
    perspective n mind, we believe that we are better off as a
    company and as an industry if we develop and implement a
    moderate response now, rather than wait 10 years, only to find
    that the political problem is now worse or that the
    environmental problem requires a more drastic response.
        In the investment decisions that we have made in the
    interim, we're dead wrong. This is one of the reasons why we
    think the bill introduced by Senators Carper, Chafee and Gregg
    makes such an important contribution to this debate. We're
    encouraged by the leadership that the Bush Administration has
    shown on the issue of multi-pollutant legislation and we deeply
    appreciate the leadership that Senator Inhofe and you, Senator
    Voinovich, have shown in tackling this very difficult issue.
        We encourage you in your efforts to find that balance that
    I talked about earlier, and I thank you for this opportunity to
    testify.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you, Mr. Brownstein.
        Again, I want to thank all the witnesses for being here
    today. Dr. Thorning, we've heard several of the witnesses talk
    about the need to place a cap on CO2 emissions to
    help the industry. However, if a cap is placed on
    CO2 emissions, utilities, from what I understand,
    will be forced to fuel switch away from low cost, abundant and
    reliable coal to natural gas. As I'm sure you know, natural gas
    prices will only continue to increase as pressure becomes
    increasingly greater already in a tight market.
        How have the increased natural gas prices over the past few
    years affected companies in other sectors, such as the chemical
    and agriculture industry's ability to invest in the market in
    general, and has it affected utilities that rely primarily on
    natural gas for their generation?
        Ms. Thorning. That's an excellent question, Mr. Chairman,
    and I think most of the people in this room know that with
    respect to the higher natural gas prices, our chemical industry
    has been adversely affected, fertilizers, and others that are
    dependent on gas have been very hard hit and face reduced
    competitiveness, not only at home but globally. So industry has
    been very hard hit in terms of trying to maintain
    competitiveness.
        The issue of placing carbon caps, which presumably would
    encourage fuel switching, is one that I think a lot of research
    shows would significantly increase natural gas prices and make
    it even more difficult for the U.S. economy to recover from its
    current slow growth.
        Senator Voinovich. It is a major problem.
        Ms. Thorning. It is a major problem.
        Senator Voinovich. Is it affecting the stock prices of any
    of the companies that are highly reliant, for example, the
    chemical industry?
        Ms. Thorning. Certainly it is. Stock prices have taken a
    very hard hit in the energy intensive sector. The surge in gas
    prices is certainly part of it.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you. Mr. Brownstein, the political
    reality we face in Congress is that the regulation of carbon
    will not become law. We went through that last year. It's not
    going to happen. And the whole issue is, in light of that fact,
    what is the wisest action for the Senate to take, pass a bill
    that provides certainty now for SO2, NOx and mercury
    and get on with it, or should we just wait until the time comes
    when we deal with CO2?
        Mr. Brownstein. Well, certainly, Senator, I'm in no
    position, have no expertise to comment on political dynamics in
    this body or in Washington. I can only bring to you the
    perspective of my company and my shareholders, which is in a
    perfect world, I suppose, having some form of carbon price
    signal today would be much better for us than waiting.
        I suppose the question of how our company would view
    legislation coming out of this committee or the Senate, and how
    we would feel about that, would depend a lot upon the details
    in it. But I'm hopeful that perhaps we can work with you and
    some others to help change some minds about the value of doing
    something on a moderate basis for carbon in the interim.
        Senator Voinovich. Would a moderate basis not include a
    cap?
        Mr. Brownstein. My view is that you need some type of price
    signal out there. We're very supportive, Mr. Chairman, of
    efforts to provide Government support for the development of
    IGC technology, geological sequestration of carbon. Coal is a
    very important of our generation mix and we want to make sure
    that it continues to be an important part of our generation
    mix. But at the end of the day, our concern is that as
    promising as those technologies are, without some sort of price
    signal that values the carbon benefit that they bring to the
    table, we're concerned that they will never be economic in the
    current marketplace.
        Senator Voinovich. How much of your group's generating
    capacity is attributable to coal?
        Mr. Brownstein. Generating capacity, sir, is about 21
    percent or so, about 26 percent of the megawatt hours we
    generated last year came from coal.
        Senator Voinovich. So it's about a quarter of all your
    group is coal generated?
        Mr. Brownstein. That's right.
        Senator Voinovich. I have, Mr. Taylor, I'm out of time.
    With the implementation of the Clean Air provisions, other
    Federal regulations and State clean air laws combined to create
    uncertainty for electricity generators, they do have an impact
    on the ability of private sector utilities to raise capital and
    make strategic long term capital investments such as decisions
    on the purchase and installation of emission control
    technologies.
        A prime example of this is the recent filing by PG&E
    National Energy Group which requested permission to shut down a
    745 megawatt coal-fired plant in Massachusetts because it
    cannot meet the deadline to instal $125 million worth of SCRs
    and scrubbers. The New England independent system operator is
    likely to rule that the plant must stay on line in order to
    prevent blackouts, forcing either the State of Massachusetts to
    loan the money to the utility or the ISO to pay for the
    installation of the SCRs and scrubbers. In either case, the
    cost will likely be passed on directly to ratepayers. I'd like
    to add this article that recently appeared in the record. And
    I'd like to ask, is it reasonable to assume that we would see
    similar scenarios if Senator Jeffords' four P bill would have
    been enacted last year?
        Mr. Taylor. Chairman Voinovich, I think that the addition
    of a fourth P to the legislation would exacerbate this problem
    and would cause the problem that this company had with their
    Salem Harbor plant to recur many more times around the Nation.
    Some of my fellow panelists this morning have talked about the
    certainty that would come by adding the fourth P to the bill.
    In my opinion, the only certainty that we would have from that
    would be the certainty that we would use less coal, use more
    natural gas and result in higher prices for both electricity
    and natural gas. I believe that it would harm our Nation's
    economy.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Senator Carper.
        Senator Carper. Again, this is another excellent panel, and
    we're grateful to each of you for making time in your lives to
    be here with us today and to share your input. Mr. Taylor, I'd
    just say, I'm the only native born West Virginia Senator in the
    U.S. Senate. I'm hoping to go to the Carper family reunion the
    first Saturday in August. I assure you, I don't want to go to
    that reunion having anybody there think that I'm not interested
    in the economic well-being of my native State and the coal
    industry within that State, from which I was born.
        And you make an assertion that if we do take, given some
    balanced steps, reasonable, I think modest steps with respect
    to CO2, and we include a cap and tarde system, the
    opportunity for sequestration really to use a lot of
    innovation, that we're going to see a wholesale shift from coal
    to natural gas. There's actually been some pretty good
    empirical analysis that says that's not really the case, at
    least when you take a reasonably balanced approach. And maybe
    we can have a conversation about that later.
        But the last thing I want to do is push people out of coal
    and exclusively into natural gas. We're aware of the
    consequences of that for a company like Dupont, which is
    headquartered in my State. We're aware, we have a lot of
    agriculture in my State, and we're aware that as the costs of
    natural gas go up, it has an adverse impact on agriculture,
    too.
        So for us, part of the challenge is to find ways to, as we
    look to control the emissions of CO2, to do so in a
    way that doesn't lead to this wholesale shifting away from coal
    and makes less economically viable some of our major
    industries, including chemicals and agriculture.
        I was riding down on the train this morning, Mr. Chairman,
    and sometimes I read the paper. Today I was taking a look at
    the morning paper and I came across a small article in our
    paper from Delaware about a lawsuit that I think several States
    had filed against EPA to force recognition of CO2. I
    think there were three States that were listed. And I believe
    Connecticut may have been one of the States.
        I know you're not the Attorney, you're the Sate Treasurer.
    A more important job, I used to be State Treasurer of Delaware.
    Almost as important as the Auditor. What were you, the Auditor
    of, I know you were the major, were you the auditor?
        Senator Voinovich. Of Cuyahoga County.
        Senator Carper. Another important job. But are you aware of
    the lawsuit that's been brought? I think it involved
    Connecticut, maybe a couple of other States.
        Ms. Nappier. I am aware of the lawsuit, and it essentially
    says that the Federal Government should step up to the plate
    and identify CO2 as a pollutant that ought to be
    regulated, that we should have uniformity as it relates to the
    need to lower emissions. And put it under the, I believe it's
    the P3 legislation, to make it P4.
        Senator Carper. Thank you. You were cutoff, you ran out of
    time and didn't have a chance to finish up your testimony. And
    I'm not going to go back and ask you to read it, but anything
    that you wanted to convey to us or just reemphasize?
        Ms. Nappier. Yes, that shareholder votes in favor of
    climate change resolution has doubled over the last 2 years. I
    think that evidences the growing interest to properly address
    climate change, going out into the future.
        The other thing is that CERES, which is a coalition of
    environmental groups and institutional investors, has had a
    year-long dialog on this whole topic. An important study is
    being released today as we speak here. I would hope that your
    committee would sort of avail themselves of that report, some
    important information coming out.
        Last, that we do have a, I am calling for an institutional
    investor summit this fall that will take a very close look at
    climate change, what needs to happen to better quantify and
    assess the risks associated with climate change, along with the
    need to mitigate that risk. But a group of us will be coming
    together to do just that. And I believe that if we look at
    climate change as merely an environmental issue, we are missing
    the point. It is an investor security issue of the highest
    magnitude.
        Senator Carper. Thanks very much. Mr. Chairman, I hope we
    have another round, but thanks very much.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Cornyn?
        Senator Cornyn. Senator Carper, unfortunately I had the
    misfortune to be Attorney General for 4 years in my State.
        Senator Carper. There are worse misfortunes.
        Senator Cornyn. A whole State can't be held accountable for
    the actions of a single Attorney General.
        [Laughter.]
        Senator Cornyn. Mr. Taylor, I'm going to pick on you a
    little bit, because we come from the same place and your
    company is the largest electric generator in Texas. I'd like
    for you to clarify a few things for the record for me and for
    the subcommittee. Your company has a generation mix that
    includes coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewable. During our
    subcommittee hearings on the Clear Skies proposal, we've heard
    varying claims regarding the level of emissions controls that
    are currently in place at coal-fired plants. Would you give the
    subcommittee a sense of the emissions controls that TXU
    operates at its coal-fired plants and when those emissions
    controls were installed?
        Mr. Taylor. Senator Cornyn, at TXU we have nine generating
    units that use lignite and coal. Five of those generating units
    had scrubbers installed at the time they were built. This was
    in the late 1970's, roughly 25 years or so ago.
        Since that time, we have spent a great deal of money in
    upgrading those pollution controls and adding additional
    pollution controls. About five or 6 years ago, if memory serves
    correct, we added some, a device called a compact hybrid
    particulate collection system. It was very much like one of the
    systems that the gentleman on the second panel from the Gore
    company described as an advanced technology that removes very
    fine particulates. We spent $121 million installing that
    system.
        We have spent $100 million, roughly, upgrading the
    scrubbers on our plant since 1995. We have spent $230 million
    on NOx controls at all of our power plants since 1997. So the
    total just since the early 1990's is in excess of $450 million.
        Senator Cornyn. Well, obviously TXU has committed
    significant resources to control various emissions. Can you
    explain to us why the circumstances surrounding the proposed
    control of mercury emissions are different?
        Mr. Taylor. Senator Cornyn, first of all, TXU very much
    supports the concept of the multi-pollutant legislation, and we
    certainly commend President Bush and the Administration on the
    introduction of it. We have a great deal of certainty with
    regard to how much it costs to control SO2 and how
    effective those controls are. The same thing is true for NOx.
    We have no technology available for mercury control, other than
    what we get through co-benefits. We would be faced, under this
    bill as currently filed, with spending some $400 million to
    install additional scrubbers on our unscrubbed power plants,
    which we, by the way, are ready and willing to do. We would
    probably spend another $100 million or so on additional NOx
    controls, which we are ready and willing to do. But if we have
    to do that and also are facing a mercury control limit which we
    cannot meet, then our option would probably be that we would
    not install the SO2 controls, not install the NOx
    controls, but simply shut down or fuel switch those units when
    2010 gets here. I cannot overstate the difficulty that we would
    have in committing capital for further SO2 and NOx
    reductions if we knew we could not comply with mercury
    reductions with any existing available technology.
        Senator Cornyn. If TXU and utilities generally decide to
    just give up on coal and go natural gas, what are the financial
    prospects, what are the ramifications of that?
        Mr. Taylor. We believe, first of all, that it would drive
    up our cost structure very considerably. The lignite and coal
    that we burn at our company is just over $1 per million BTU, I
    think $1.20 or so on average this year, if memory serves
    correct, whereas natural gas prices are currently $6. We're one
    of the largest generators in the United States, and it would
    add several billions a year to our cost structure. That would
    make the prices that our customers pay for electricity higher.
    We believe it would also drive up the cost of natural gas, and
    that would have severe adverse impacts on consumers, as well as
    for industry and particularly those industries that use natural
    gas as a feedstock, like the petrochemical industry and the
    plastics industry, for example.
        Senator Cornyn. Thank you very much. I'll yield back my
    time.
        Senator Voinovich. Mr. McGinnis, you've, and I apologize, I
    wasn't here to fully get your testimony, but the real issue
    here is, we have a kind of a patchwork, do source review, NOx
    SIP call, 126 petitions and so on and so forth. And we're
    trying with this Clear Skies legislation to come up with some
    sensible plan that will reduce emissions and improve public
    health and at the same time leave this country in a competitive
    position in terms of the global marketplace.
        Sitting from your perspective, would the passage of this
    legislation make it more attractive for you to finance some of
    the things that Mr. Taylor talked about as contrasted from the
    current situation where we have all these other things that are
    in place?
        Mr. McGinnis. Senator Voinovich, you address the question
    of whether it is easier to finance. There are going to be a
    number of issues, a number of inputs to market pricing of bonds
    and stocks. But I will say that a gist of the part of my
    remarks focused on the need for clarity. And investors seek
    clarity in an industry which has an environment of
    uncertainties, fundamental uncertainties related to regulatory
    policy and other matters.
        So with respect to a Clear Skies bill, it does bring
    clarity on these three emissions. I'd also say that with
    respect to the adoption of additional restrictions on emissions
    that would use technologies that may be beginning to be
    introduced or being developed in R&D labs but are not yet
    proven with unknowable costs yet, doesn't help on the clarity
    point. It decreases clarity, decreases certainty with respect
    to how investors think about the future profits of those
    companies.
        Therefore, more certainty is better here. I think more
    clarity would help investors get comfortable at a time of
    uncertainty otherwise, to put additional dollars into the
    companies that are going to need significant capital raised to
    embark on this emissions reduction program.
        Senator Voinovich. There seems to be some strong opinion of
    some of the witnesses here that we have to add carbon to make
    it the fourth P. The issue is, if we did that, would that make
    it better for you or worse for you or wouldn't it matter?
        Mr. McGinnis. Speaking from the perspective of investors
    and access to capital, the flow of funds, what would improve
    the flow of funds, what would make financing these more
    efficient. Adding a fourth P without the technology in place to
    getting to the emissions standards apply to the fourth P or
    clear costs associated with the equipment required to meet
    those standards, potentially even technology to quantify the
    amount of the emissions creates more uncertainty than not
    having that fourth P in the bill.
        So there would be a lack of clarity on what amounts the
    companies would have to spend over what period of time, because
    we don't have the technology in place to deploy.
        Senator Voinovich. Do you have some of the same concerns
    over the issue, you've heard the testimony on mercury, the same
    concerns about that? We're struggling here with a number, and
    as I mentioned before, when we inserted the number into the
    legislation, there was a lot of people that said it was
    unrealistic because it was too low to take advantage of co-
    generation. How do you feel about that?
        Mr. McGinnis. Senator, in particular, I would want to know
    what the costs would be. If I'm an investor in a company that
    is newly faced with an additional requirement for mercury
    reductions, before I make an investment of reasonable size, I
    would want to know what those costs would be to meet that new
    hurdle. And in the absence of such knowledge, I have to add
    that to the list of other uncertainties about that entity. I'm
    likely to migrate, my choice is likely to migrate to a company
    that has greater certainty perhaps in another sector.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you.
        Ms. Nappier, the Energy Information Administration has
    projected that electricity prices would raise by some 25 to 30
    percent if the 4-P bill was adopted from last year. Natural gas
    prices would risk dramatically. How could that be good for the
    shareholders of a utility and for that matter, and I don't know
    what the mix or where you get your energy from, but in a State
    like my State, where we would fuel switch, our manufacturers
    would have to pay about 45 percent more for their electricity
    and commercial about 35 and our homeowners about 25. How does
    it make it better if you add a fourth P to this legislation?
        Ms. Nappier. Based on the way you've described the
    scenario, it would erode shareholder value.
        Senator Voinovich. I'm sorry?
        Ms. Nappier. I said, based on the way you've described the
    scenario, it wagtail erode shareholder value. You don't need to
    be a rocket scientists to understand that. My concern is this,
    that we need to have full, accurate disclosure of the climate
    change as a risk. We're not getting that kind of information
    from companies. We're asking companies not only to begin to
    quantify the financial risk but to also take steps to come up
    with plans that will help to mitigate that risk. And we want to
    know that. We want to know what it's going to cost our company
    in the long term and how it's going to impact shareholder
    value. We don't have access to that information.
        There was a carbon disclosure project that was completed a
    while ago and surveyed 500 companies. Of the 500 companies that
    responded to the survey, 80 percent say that they are aware
    that climate change is a financial risk factor. But only 40
    percent are doing anything about it. Only 40 percent are
    beginning, they're taking steps to assess the risks,
    financially, operationally, reputationally. Only 40 percent.
        From my perspective, I want to know that. If what you're
    saying is absolutely true, in terms of my portfolio companies,
    like AEP, then that's vital information we need to make our
    investment decisions. And we don't have that information today.
        Senator Voinovich. If the 3-P legislation, the President's
    Clear Skies legislation is passed, for sure you'll have
    certainty about that area, which is uncertain today in terms of
    most people's opinion. So that's, I would think, would be a
    step forward.
        Ms. Nappier. Yes, I believe the 4-P legislation establishes
    a mandatory cap. But I'm not sure that that legislation speaks
    to the right of shareholders to have clear and accurate
    disclosure of information regarding a company's future health
    as it relates to climate change. I'm not sure it does that.
        Senator Voinovich. I think that's something that----
        Ms. Nappier. Regulation does bring on uniformity and that's
    good.
        Senator Voinovich. The issue is you've got Dr. Thorning
    here, you've got Mr. McGinnis, is the fact that that
    information is available going to make a difference in terms
    of, do you think, in terms of the price of shares of stock?
        Ms. Thorning. I'd like to weigh in. I think we need to keep
    our eye on the big picture, which is that addressing climate
    change is going to take a global effort. Shareholders in the
    U.S. cannot materially impact the growth in CO2
    concentrations. We need a global approach that will help the
    developing world where the growth is coming, slowly reduce
    their greenhouse gas intensity. Greenhouse gas intensity is
    falling in the U.S. If the Bush Administration plan is
    implemented and if tax provisions are made more favorable for
    pulling through the capital stock faster, we will be able to
    meet the targets, and shareholder value will be enhanced.
        As I pointed out earlier in my testimony there are many
    uncertainties associated with adopting carbon caps, including
    the fact that the targets will continually tighten. If we go
    down that path, it's going to be very hard to get off of it.
        Mr. McGinnis. I would just point out that while I'm
    sympathetic to the argument that developing a price signal, and
    institutional investors would like a price signal on what would
    happen with carbon emissions, again without knowable
    technologies and knowable costs and time tables, the price
    signal is distorted. So we wouldn't get a very clear read on
    what those costs would be. So it would create greater
    uncertainty rather than less.
        Senator Voinovich. Senator Carper?
        Senator Carper. I want to revisit, and I'm sure we'll
    revisit this one a lot, but the assertion that our chairman
    made with respect to the cost of a 4-P bill versus that of a 3
    pollutant bill. He mentioned 25 percent. I've not heard 25
    percent, I've heard 3 percent. As we go forward, we'll have to
    find out, which is it, 25 or 3 or something in between. Because
    that's an important element here and an important factor in the
    decision that's before us.
        I do know this, that 25 percent of the greenhouse gases
    created in the world today come from the United States. And I
    do know this, that 40 percent of the greenhouse gases that
    emanate in the United States come from our utility industries.
    While we're looking for a global solution, and there's clearly
    plenty of other sources of greenhouse gases around the world
    other than just utilities, we as a nation are a significant
    contributor, and the utility industry is a significant
    contributor, too.
        Mr. Brownstein, I just want to salute you and your utility
    also, those whom you mentioned, the utilities that are
    interested in trying to find a balanced approach to the
    problems before us. You said if we only remember one thing from
    what you said, leaving here today, you talked about balance.
    Just re-emphasize for us the critical point, and I'm going to
    ask Mr. Cogan to come back to a critical point that he would
    have us keep in mind as we leave here today.
        Mr. Brownstein. And I think the discussion that's been had
    here this morning just in this last panel has illustrated that
    very nicely. There's no question, Senator, that if carbon caps
    are set in an unrealistic fashion, you're going to stress out
    the industry and create more uncertainty, as opposed to create
    less. That's one of the reasons why we think it's so important
    that No. 1, we be realistic about what we can accomplish in the
    near term, and No. 2, that we couple that with flexibility
    mechanisms.
        Certainly, if you set a carbon cap and you limit the
    compliance ability just to within the industry, we're going to
    find ourselves in trouble very quickly. But if you set a carbon
    cap in such a way that it incentivizes utilities to go out and
    find low cost reductions in other industrial sectors and even
    around the world, I might add, our first wind turbine project
    was in Chile. Because it made sense economically and also was
    consistent with their developmental goals.
        That if you incentivize through a cap program, you'll
    discover those costs. With respect to our friend from Morgan
    Stanley with whom we often do business, sometimes it's just a
    question of where you set the bar and how you share information
    between parties that give people confidence that there is a way
    forward. That's what we mean by balance. I certainly don't want
    to be in a position where we go forward and we make investments
    in NOx and SO2 and mercury technologies, put off the
    climate debate for 10 years and find that we made a fundamental
    error in how we viewed the overall picture.
        Senator Carper. Thanks, Mr. Brownstein. Mr. Cogan?
        Mr. Cogan. I would concur with everything Mr. Brownstein
    said, Senator. Two additional points I would make. Several
    references have been made during the course of this hearing,
    one to the patchwork of current regulations that are in place,
    and second to the question of uncertainty going forward. My
    concern in the research that we do for institutional investors
    is that neither of those issues, the patchwork of regulation or
    the uncertainty, will go away under a 3-P bill.
        There is a patchwork in place right now with respect to
    carbon dioxide regulation. The vacuum in effect at the Federal
    level is being filled by some States that are passing their own
    legislation, regional air quality groups that are also looking
    at this issue, and certainly at the international level with
    the Kyoto Protocol and many countries that are implementing its
    terms.
        So there is a patchwork that these countries and companies
    already have to deal with. That's not going to go away if there
    isn't a Federal standard that's put in place.
        And the uncertainty won't go away either. The concern is
    that unless there's a dramatic change in the way the science of
    this issue looks, and the trajectories of the emissions being
    what they are, there's a misguided focus on the emissions
    intensity of production. But we don't want to lose sight of the
    fact of what the overall emissions trends are.
        An analogy I might draw is to someone who has their
    cholesterol checked, and an emissions intensity ratio is a
    helpful piece of information if you know your HDL to LDL level.
    That's a good piece of information to have. But you also want
    your doctor to tell you what your overall cholesterol level is
    and whether the trend is up, and whether you're in a level
    where you're facing a greater risk of contracting heart
    disease. We don't want to lose sight of the fact that overall
    emissions in this country and in the world are continuing to
    rise and that therefore, the risk of climate change compounds
    going forward.
        So the uncertainty will still be there in terms of
    addressing this issue. The one certainty that we would have
    with a 3-P bill is that we would be committing, as has been
    said again by Senators in this committee, to the most
    aggressive clean air initiative in history, very well
    intentioned and I think broadly supported in this country, but
    also very expensive. And the concern would be that as we get
    down the road, committing these tens of billions of dollars, we
    find that we're not going to be able to fully depreciate the
    value of those investments because we find that the science and
    the other concerns, the economic risks and opportunities posed
    by climate change are so compelling that we have to shift in
    midstream.
        That's our concern. That's the fundamental uncertainty that
    we feel could be addressed.
        Senator Carper. Let me ask a question of Mr. McGinnis, and
    I think probably Mr. Cogan as well. Do you find that investors
    are shying away from the electric generating sector now due to
    the uncertainty of environmental regulations?
        Mr. McGinnis. It's hard, Senator Carper, to understand when
    a stock price goes down what the specific ratio of rationale
    was, what one investor chose as his motivation to sell versus
    another to buy or more to sell for one reason or another. So
    it's hard to pinpoint. But in general, the focus on destruction
    of value in the merchant power sector has been from
    overbuilding in places which don't require as much supply. So
    environmental concerns from companies who have been focused on
    new construction have not been as important as concerns like
    access to financing and the spark spreads, or that is the
    margins that they experience from making power from gas-fired
    plants in certain regions to be robust.
        So it's not been the prime driver of a lot of the issues
    for the industry. There have been cases, and RG is an example
    of a case which Ms. Nappier from Connecticut would be familiar
    with, in which pollution control and environmental issues, and
    NEG in New England, pollution control and environmental issues
    are very much a part of the economics of some of their
    investments. That has hurt those companies and that has hurt
    their share prices.
        Senator Carper. Mr. Cogan, do you want to take a shot at
    that question, please?
        Mr. Cogan. Yes, you have to think about the type of
    institution that's holding the shares as well. The work that we
    do is largely for institutional investors who are managing
    pension, insurance and endowment assets. By definition, they
    tend to be in these companies for the long term. The trend has
    been toward index investing, and so you're in basically
    whatever is in the index and you're not going to sell it.
        Electric utilities are a vitally important part of that
    index, as they are a vitally important part of our economy. So
    therefore, the institutional investors have to look beyond kind
    of the ebbs and the flows and the swings of this industry,
    again to see where the long term trends are and where it may
    head. That's why I continue to emphasize this need for a longer
    term perspective, a 15 year perspective perhaps, as Mr.
    Brownstein said.
        The way I'd actually like to think of this issue in terms
    of a governance perspective for corporations and shareholders
    is that this issue presents a fundamental gap in governance
    decisionmaking. A CEO of a company typically is in that
    position for about three to 5 years and the investment planning
    horizon that a CEO has tends to match that same time interval.
        In the case of a long-lived asset like a power plant, the
    investment planning horizon may look out 15 years. But the fact
    is, the power plant itself will exist for perhaps 30 or 40
    years, and then emissions from that power plant, the carbon
    dioxide, will remain in the atmosphere for over 100 years. So
    long after the CEO is retired, even long after the plant is
    retired, there is the legacy of the emissions from that plant
    that need to be addressed. This is the gap in governance
    decisionmaking.
        The way institutions can help close this gap is by
    recognizing that they hold assets that are as long, they span
    generations, they are intended to be in perpetuity if they're
    for endowments and pensions. They have that long term interest
    as well to see that the issues are addressed over the long term
    to maintain not only the vitality of the industry but of the
    economy as a whole, and the global environment as well.
        Senator Carper. Your mention of the long term, long-lived
    assets, let me just ask one last question for our State
    Treasurer, Ms. Nappier. Chairman Voinovich suggested earlier
    that Clear Skies will provide more certainty for the industry,
    at least in certain respects. But it's my impression that
    utilities invest on more like a 30 year time horizon. Do you
    believe that investors would benefit from having carbon dioxide
    on the table, given the length of these investments?
        Ms. Napper. I'm not sure I understand your question.
    Investors are long term. You invest for the long haul.
        Senator Carper. Do you believe that investors would benefit
    from having carbon dioxide on the table, given the length, sort
    of the long term length of the investment cycle?
        Ms. Nappier. When you say on the table, what do you mean by
    that? Do you mean regulated? I believe that regulation is
    inevitable. So if it's going to happen, then we should do it in
    concert with everything else that's going on that could have an
    impact on a company's long term health. So I'm very much
    concerned, for instance, what it will do to a company if you
    say today they have to do X, Y, Z and make these capital
    commitments, and then 50 years down the road, all of a sudden,
    the rules change. And they're incurring additional expenses,
    unanticipated.
        So we know that there is a need for more research and
    development to quantify the financial risk exposure to a
    company. And I would hate to have us move forward and just
    regulate for the sake of regulating and then realize that we
    have contributed immensely to the demise of an industry.
        Senator Carper. Thank you very much.
        Senator Voinovich. Thank you. I'd like to thank all the
    witnesses for coming today. I thought this was a very
    interesting hearing, and certainly there's a difference of
    opinion between the witnesses here today. Thank you very much.
        The meeting is adjourned.
        [Whereupon, at 12:40 p.m., the subcommittee was adjourned,
    to reconvene at the call of the Chair.]
        [Additional statements submitted for the record follow:]

    Statement of Dr. Randall Kroszner, Acting Chairman, Council of Economic
                                    Advisors

        Mr. Chairman, and members of the committee, I am pleased to appear
    before you this morning to discuss the Clear Skies Act of 2003. At this
    time, it is valuable to pause and reflect on this piece of landmark
    legislation. Strict enforcement of environmental rules can be dated as
    early as 1306-when a man was allegedly executed for burning coal in
    London. In the United States, concern for air quality dates back to the
    mid-nineteenth century, when many municipalities issued smoke
    ordinances. The responsibility of regulating air polluters rested
    almost exclusively with States and localities until 1970. The early
    1970's marked an unprecedented increase in environmental awareness.
    During these years, the Federal Government began to take a more active
    role in environmental regulation with passage of the National
    Environmental Policy Act and the Clean Air Act. Later in the 1970's,
    the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 modified these air quality
    regulations.
        One common thread over time has been that the United States' air
    quality regulatory policy, indeed environmental regulation in general,
    typically relies on command-and-control regulation. This type of
    regulation generally mandates technologies or processes, does not take
    advantage of the power of markets and is, therefore, by its very nature
    more expensive and less efficient than is necessary.
        In contrast, the Bush Administration has crafted an initiative that
    will clean our air using a proven, market-based method. Announced on
    February 14, 2002, the Clear Skies Act would be the most significant
    and aggressive step America has ever taken, if enacted, to cut power
    plant emissions of three harmful pollutants sulfur dioxide, nitrogen
    oxide, and mercury. The proposal, which builds upon the highly
    successful 1990 acid rain trading program, will cut emissions by
    approximately 70 percent over the next 16 years.
        Clear Skies employs a dynamic approach to regulation that mandates
    specific emission reduction caps while providing managers with the
    flexibility to reduce emissions in the most efficient and least costly
    manner possible. Through a market-based cap and trade program, Federal
    emissions limits, or caps, are set and emissions permits are
    distributed to electricity generators. Managers then have the advantage
    to determine the most efficient means of action whether it is the sale
    or purchase of unused allowances or banking of credits for later use.
    Clear Skies provides regulatory certainty and lays out the timeframes
    necessary for managers to design a cost-effective strategy tailored to
    both their current budgets and their future plans. With this structure,
    we uphold a principal feature of the President's initiative improving
    air quality more cost-effectively so that Americans can continue to
    rely on clean and affordable electricity.
        To improve air quality, Clear Skies will achieve faster reductions
    than the current Clean Air Act by creating incentives for
    ``overcompliance'' and innovation power plants that develop means to
    reduce pollution more than or earlier than required can generate and
    sell extra credits. The Clear Skies Act will improve human health,
    visibility, and diverse range of ecosystems by reducing emissions and
    deposition of NOx, SO2, and mercury. In short, Clear Skies
    will result in dramatic progress toward solving our nation's persistent
    air quality problems.
    At What Cost?
        As you are well aware, a crucial element of any regulatory policy
    is not only recognition of the benefits received from emissions
    reductions, but also the resource costs associated with the policy.
    These resource costs, it must be emphasized, are ultimately borne by
    citizens, whether stockholders of companies making the reductions or
    consumers, or both. Therefore, the Administration takes the economic
    modeling of Clear Skies quite seriously. In this respect, over the past
    several years we have gained a better understanding of the costs to
    abate NOx and SO2. Yet, our understanding of the removal
    costs associated with mercury is in a nascent stage.
        The goal of Clear Skies is to reduce mercury emissions by
    approximately 70 percent from current levels by 2018 with an interim
    cap reducing emissions by approximately 50 percent by 2010. That is,
    mercury emissions would be reduced from current levels of approximately
    48 tons to 15 tons in 2018 with an interim cap of 26 tons in 2010.
    Consistent with the principal of improving air quality cost-
    effectively, Clear Skies is designed to meet the Clean Air Act goal of
    reducing mercury with a trading program that is more cost-effective
    than the program currently required by the Clean Air Act. The
    interrelationship of cap levels for NOx, SO2, and mercury is
    also a key feature of Clear Skies for providing regulatory certainty,
    flexible capital planning cycles, and the co-benefit of mercury
    reductions from NOx and SO2 emission controls.
        The Administration has been examining, among other things, the
    total resource cost of achieving the mercury reductions required under
    Clear Skies, the marginal cost of mercury removal, and the level of
    mercury co-benefits that could be expected from the NOx and
    SO2 limits in Clear Skies. We have also addressed what
    additional mechanisms and technologies will be needed to meet the 2010
    mercury cap, using different assumptions and models. Major assumptions
    in our models have been extensively reviewed and, if necessary, updated
    over the past several months.
        Before I share our latest results with you, I should highlight that
    any modeling of the effectiveness of mercury control technology is
    uncertain since mercury is not currently regulated in the power sector.
    Current modeling assumptions for mercury are based on data collected
    during the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Mercury Information
    Collection Request (ICR), pilot-scale testing, and some full-scale
    testing. Because the data set we are working with is evolving,
    uncertainties exist in how to interpret the data. For example,
    emissions test data collected for EPA's ICR often reflect a large
    variation in mercury reduction on units with identical emissions
    controls and coal type burned. These differences most likely were
    associated with the operation of the control equipment, but additional
    testing continues to be conducted to understand these differences.
        In general, there is agreement that selective catalytic reduction
    (SCR) technology provides enhancement of mercury reduction for
    bituminous coals. For subbituminous coal, however, there is some
    disagreement on whether SCR technology also provides this enhancement
    of mercury reduction. With only one set of test data on a
    subbituminous-burning unit currently available and more tests currently
    scheduled, this issue continues to be unclear, but more work is being
    done. For one of the most common coal plant configurations, a plant
    with a cold-side electrostatic precipitator for particulate control,
    the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and EPA agree that adding a
    SCR for NOx control and a scrubber for SO2 control will
    result in 90 percent of the mercury being removed from bituminous
    coals. For subbituminous coals, however, the assumed percent removed
    ranges from 27 percent for EIA to 66 percent for EPA. There is an
    ongoing dynamic research process sponsored by EPA, the Department of
    Energy (DOE), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and vendors
    specifically aimed at furthering our understanding of mercury control,
    with new data being made available on a continuous basis.
        With these uncertainties in mind, I will briefly highlight some of
    the empirical estimates of interest. As you may recall, the first phase
    mercury reduction cap in Clear Skies is designed to take advantage of
    the interrelationship of NOx, SO2, and mercury emissions.
    More specifically, in addition to considering economic consequences and
    benefits of this multi-emission approach, we relied on an estimate of
    mercury removal achieved through installation of NOx and SO2
    controls (SCR and scrubbers, respectively). This removal estimate is
    commonly termed ``co-benefits.''
        Concerning our updated empirical estimate of co-benefits, when the
    NOx and SO2 limits in Clear Skies are modeled without a
    mercury cap (i.e., without a market signal promoting mercury removal),
    estimates of annual mercury emissions in 2010 after installation of NOx
    and SO2 controls vary between 34 tons and 46 tons. An
    important point to understand in this context is that the mercury
    emissions remaining after installation of NOx and SO2
    controls are most sensitive to assumptions regarding emission
    modification factors, or EMFs, which is the amount of mercury removal
    assumed when particular combinations of NOx and SO2 controls
    are installed. As discussed earlier, mercury reduction is dependent on
    coal type burned as well as the existing particulate matter, and NOx,
    and SO2 control devices. For example, in the
    Administration's modeling, we assumed that a bituminous-burning unit
    with a SCR and wet scrubber can achieve 90 percent mercury removal.
    Other key assumptions including electricity demand growth, natural gas
    prices, and coal distribution patterns and prices, however, have not in
    isolation materially changed projected 2010 mercury emission levels.
        While differences exist in this ``co-benefit'' figure, the
    Administration estimates the incremental costs of complying with the
    2010 cap to be $650 million to $700 million per year. A key feature of
    understanding this cost is the safety valve mechanism in Clear Skies.
    This safety valve sets a maximum price of $35,000 per pound. Reducing
    mercury emissions to the level at which the ``safety valve'' would be
    activated between 27 tons and 30 tons is projected to cost between $650
    million and $700 million in 2010. These costs reflect some units adding
    NOx and SO2 controls to enhance mercury reductions, the
    addition of supplemental fabric filters with activated carbon injection
    (ACI) (approximately 6 GW of about 300 GW of coal-fired generation),
    and fuel switching between coal types. Little fuel switching to natural
    gas is projected as a result of the incremental costs of meeting the 26
    ton cap.
        In sum, the President's Clear Skies legislation calls for a 70
    percent reduction in power plant emissions of NOx, SOx and mercury in
    the next 15 years. This legislation will meet the required health-based
    standards laid out under the Clean Air Act--but it will achieve those
    results sooner than required and at a much lower cost to consumers. We
    look forward to working with the committee and Congress to create a
    market-based system that will provide early reductions and affordable
    energy prices for consumers.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I look forward to answering any questions
    you or the members of the committee may have.

                                   __________
      Statement of Dr. Larry Monroe, Program Manager of Pollution Control
        Research on Behalf of the Southern Company and Edison Electric
                                   Institute

        My name is Larry S. Monroe and I am the Program Manager of
    Pollution Control Research for Southern Company. Southern Company is a
    super regional energy company serving customers in Alabama, Florida,
    Georgia, and Mississippi. Southern Company is the second largest user
    of coal in the utility industry with some 21,626 megawatts of coal-
    fired generating capacity. I hold a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from
    MIT, and have been involved in research on pollution control for coal-
    based power plants for over 20 years in university, not-for-profit
    research institute, and corporate settings. At Southern Company, I
    manage a research group that evaluates, develops, demonstrates, and
    troubleshoots technologies to control particulates, SO2,
    NOx, and hazardous air pollutants, including mercury, from fossil-fired
    power plants.
        For the last 2 years, I have been engaged in the national effort to
    develop technologies to control mercury emissions from coal-fired power
    plants, resulting from EPA's decision in December 2000 to develop
    Maximum Available Control Technology (MACT) mercury regulations for
    coal plants. I serve as the utility co-chairperson of the EPRI program
    tasked with developing and evaluating mercury control technologies. I
    have also directed Southern Company's efforts, along with our partners
    including other utilities, EPRI, the Department of Energy, and the
    Environmental Protection Agency, in an attempt to develop cost-
    effective controls of utility mercury emissions.
        I have been representing Southern Company and the industry on the
    Utility MACT Working Group, a subcommittee formed under the Clean Air
    Act Advisory Committee to provide advice to the Environmental
    Protection Agency. As a member of the MACT Working group, I have been
    intimately involved in the discussions with all of the stakeholders
    including the environmental community, the State/local/tribal
    regulatory agencies, and the industry stakeholders on the form of the
    regulation and its impacts on the industry and the price of
    electricity. As a part of this effort, I have been the leader of the
    industry stakeholders on advising EPA on our view of the performance
    and cost of the available mercury control technologies.
        Working with EPRI, DOE, and EPA, Southern Company is one of the
    leading utilities in the national effort to develop mercury controls.
    We hosted the first full-scale power plant testing of mercury control
    ever performed in the United States, and are just starting a long-term
    follow-on test at the same site. Southern has also established a unique
    program to explore the fundamentals of mercury chemistry in coal power
    plant flue gas, partnering with EPA, TVA, EPRI, and several other
    utilities.
        Today I am also testifying on behalf of the Edison Electric
    Institute (EEI). EEI is the association of U.S. shareholder-owned
    electric companies, international affiliates and industry associates
    worldwide. EEI's U.S. members serve more than 90 percent of all
    customers served by the shareholder-owned segment of the industry,
    generate approximately three-quarters of all of the electricity
    generated by electric companies in the country, and serve about 70
    percent of all ultimate customers in the Nation.

    State of Technology
        The state of technology development for control of mercury
    emissions from coal-fired power plants is very much in its infancy.
    Some early efforts at measuring the mercury emissions from power plants
    were attempted in the mid-1990's, but the sampling techniques used were
    not adequate, and much of that data is questionable. The mercury
    content in typical coal-fired power plant flue gas is very low,
    measured at the parts per trillion level. A good analogy that describes
    the low concentration of mercury in coal-fired power plant flue gas is
    to imagine a pipe, one foot in diameter, built from the earth to the
    moon. If this pipe, all 238,000 miles long, were to be filled with
    coal-fired power plant flue gas, and the mercury all magically brought
    to one end, it would only take up the first 18 inches of this pipe. If
    we compare the mercury in coal-fired power plant flue gas to the other
    criteria pollutants (e.g., particulates, NOx, and SO2) you
    find that the mercury is one million times less concentrated than those
    other species. The low concentrations of mercury, along with the
    propensity of mercury to react in the sampling equipment, contribute to
    the difficulties in accurately measuring and controlling mercury
    emissions at cost effective levels.
        The state of knowledge of mercury chemistry and mercury emissions
    from power plants has been so scarce that, in 1999, the Environmental
    Protection Agency (EPA) required all power plants to sample their coal
    supply and test for mercury content, and required a selected number of
    power plants to sample for the different mercury species before and
    after the flue gas entered existing pollution control devices. Southern
    Company participated in that effort by tracking every coal to every one
    of our power plants and further by sampling two of our plants for
    mercury species and emissions. Unfortunately, this EPA Information
    Collection Request (ICR) data base, while suffering from some flaws in
    data collection and power plant selection, remains the best publicly
    available data base of mercury emissions, with and without controls,
    and of mercury chemistry for U.S. power plants.
        There are currently no commercial technologies that are available
    for controlling mercury from coal-fired power plants. That is, there
    are no vendors that are offering process systems that are supported by
    guarantees from the vendor for mercury control performance under all
    the conditions that an ordinary power plant is expected to encounter
    over the course of normal operating conditions and timelines. Of
    course, there are vendors that will offer their best guess at how a
    particular technology will perform, but the risk of non-performance
    rests with the utility. The reliance on vendor warranties is standard
    practice within the utility industry, and the inability of the vendors
    to issue guarantees is indicative of the pre-commercial status of all
    mercury control technologies.
        The most promising two technologies for mercury control in power
    plants are co-control by flue gas desulphurization (FGD) processes and
    the use of activated carbon injection (ACI) processes. To understand
    the co-control of mercury by FGD processes and the possibility of
    increased mercury control by NOx control processes, namely selective
    catalytic reduction (SCR) systems, a basic understanding of mercury
    chemistry is needed. First, coal is no different than any other solid
    material dug from the earth's crust when it comes to the mercury
    content. In other words, coal is not enriched in mercury compared to
    ordinary rocks. The mercury in coal is there mainly as a sulfide
    compound, at a concentration that averages 50 parts per billion by
    weight. These sulfur-mercury compounds are the most common form of
    mercury found in nature and they tend to be very stable solids, only
    dissolved by a mixture of strong acids. Most everyone is familiar with
    mercury, the metal that is a liquid at room temperature and used widely
    in thermometers and blood pressure instruments seen in a physician's
    office.
        It is not a surprise that a metal that is liquid at room
    temperature would boil at much lower temperatures than ordinary metals,
    and mercury boils at only 674 F. Similarly, when coal burns in a
    utility boiler, mercury in the coal vaporizes and produces the vapor of
    the metal in the high temperature zones of the flame. This form of
    mercury is commonly referred to as elemental mercury, meaning that it
    exists in a form that is not combined with any other element. It is
    also known as ``mercury zero,'' a reference to the chemist's shorthand
    of referring to the electron state of a pure element as zero, or Hg0.
        As the temperature of the coal flue gas is cooled by the process of
    making and superheating steam, the elemental mercury vapor can react
    with other elements to form compounds. Our best knowledge of mercury
    chemistry suggests that mercury vapor can react with either chlorine or
    oxygen to produce mercury chloride (HgCl2) or mercury oxide (HgO).
    Since the electronic state of the mercury atom is now ``plus two,''
    this form is sometimes called ``mercury two,'' ionic mercury, or
    oxidized mercury. These are all equivalent terms that describe the
    chemical state of the mercury. Finally, either of these two forms of
    mercury, the elemental or the ionic, can attach to solid particles,
    either fly ash or partially burned coal particles, and is typically
    referred to as ``particulate mercury,'' which is a physical description
    of the mercury form. To summarize, we generally classify the mercury in
    coal flue gas as being one of three forms: elemental, ionic, or
    particulate.
        The proportions of the three chemical forms of mercury have a great
    influence over the behavior of the mercury in the flue gas in pollution
    control processes. The particulate form of mercury is the easiest form
    to remove, with high efficiency capture being normal along with the
    coal ash in electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) or bag houses.
    Unfortunately, in most power plants, the fraction of mercury contained
    in the particulate form is only a minor amount of the total mercury.

    Flue Gas Desulphurization (FGD)
        The most common method to remove sulfur dioxide (SO2)
    from coal-fired power plant flue gas is a wet scrubber. This device is
    a large tower, where the flue gas enters the tower near the bottom and
    flows upward, exiting through the top. When the flue gas is flowing,
    hundreds of nozzles spray a mixture of powdered limestone and water.
    The flue gas essentially flows up through a rain storm of these
    limestone-water droplets. Since SO2 is an acid, it reacts
    with the alkaline limestone solids and is neutralized.
        The acid and base chemistry is so fast that the performance of the
    wet scrubber is dependent on the mixing between the flue gas and the
    droplets. Therefore, it is necessary to use multiple, large pumps and a
    large number of nozzles to produce the small droplets needed. The
    combined limestone-SO2 product from the scrubber is
    typically calcium sulfate, better known as gypsum the white powder
    found inside wallboard (also called sheetrock). Gypsum is a naturally
    occurring compound, mined both for fertilizer and wallboard.
        In this common FGD process, the wet limestone scrubber, the form of
    the mercury in the flue gas entering the scrubber appears to be the
    most important factor in the efficiency of mercury capture. The ionic
    form of mercury, that which has reacted with oxygen or chlorine, tends
    to be soluble in water and is therefore captured along with the
    SO2, while the elemental mercury, being insoluble in water,
    passes through most of these processes. Therefore, our best
    understanding of the co-control of mercury with SO2 control
    processes suggests that the efficiency of mercury capture by these
    processes is related to the amount of the mercury that has converted
    from the elemental form to the ionic form. Anything that would help
    convert the elemental mercury to the ionic form will presumably
    increase the overall mercury control in plants equipped with wet
    scrubbers. (NOx control processes using selective catalytic reduction
    systems appear under some circumstances, and with some coals, to
    increase the amount of ionic mercury, and this will be discussed
    later.)
        The biggest influence on the eventual form of mercury in the flue
    gas, and the apparent subsequent capture efficiency, appears to be the
    chlorine content of the coal. Coals with higher chlorine levels, when
    burned in a power plant, produce flue gas that is typically higher in
    the ionic form, the form which is most easily captured in an
    SO2 scrubber system. In general, the domestic coals found
    east of the Mississippi River tend to be much higher in chlorine
    content than the coals found in the West.
        More specifically, the rank of the coal tends to be a good
    predictor of chlorine content. Coal rank is an indicator of the age of
    the coal and there are four major classifications of coal rank, listed
    in the order of high rank (or older coal) to low rank (or younger
    coal): anthracite, bituminous, sub bituminous, and lignite. Most coal
    found in the Eastern U.S. is bituminous coal, although there are some
    lignite deposits found in the Alabama-Mississippi coastal plain. These
    lignite reserves are not important to the coal-fired utility industry,
    however. Conversely, most of the coal found in the Western U.S.,
    including Texas, is either sub bituminous or lignite rank coal. The
    exception in the West is some bituminous coal found in Colorado
    extending into New Mexico. All of the coals in the Western U.S.,
    including the Western bituminous coals, are characterized by low
    chlorine contents, while the bituminous coals in the Eastern U.S. have
    much higher chlorine contents. Therefore, the expected amount of ionic
    mercury and consequently the expected capture in a scrubber will be
    much higher for coals from the Eastern U.S. than from those in the
    Western U.S.
        Typical coal-fired power plant flue gas produced from combustion of
    the bituminous coals found in the Eastern U.S. would contain the
    following proportions of the mercury species: 60 percent ionic mercury,
    38 percent elemental mercury, and 2 percent particulate mercury. The
    particulate mercury would be removed in the power plant's electrostatic
    precipitator. We would expect the scrubber to remove 90 to 95 percent
    of the ionic mercury, and none of the elemental mercury. The overall
    mercury removal in this simple example would then be 56 percent (90
    percent of the ionic and nearly 100 percent of the particulate mercury
    removed). This example is in good agreement with recent testing where,
    at three bituminous-fired power plants studied by EPRI, the FGD system
    removed 43 to 51 percent of the mercury.
        However, most of the coals from the Western U.S. when used in a
    power plant produce much less ionic mercury, with typical estimates of:
    25 percent ionic, 74 percent elemental, and less than 1 percent
    particulate. A scrubber on this power plant would then only be expected
    to remove 90 percent of the ionic and the electrostatic precipitator or
    bag house to remove nearly 100 percent of the particulate mercury.
    Therefore, the total mercury removal would be only 23.5 percent. The
    ICR data base shows that power plants burning low rank coals ranged
    from near zero to 38 percent mercury capture without wet scrubbers, and
    11 to 56 percent on those plants with scrubbers.
        A problem with capturing mercury in wet FGD scrubbers has been
    discovered through analysis of the EPA Information Collection Request
    data base. In some power plants that were tested for mercury species
    and also had wet SO2 scrubbers, the apparent high capture of
    ionic mercury was offset by an increase in the amount of elemental
    mercury as the flue gas moved through the scrubber. So, while the ionic
    mercury appeared to be captured at efficiencies approaching 95 percent,
    some of the ionic mercury, after being captured in the scrubber, was
    converted back to the elemental form, which evaporated from the
    scrubber and was then emitted as elemental mercury.
        An example may help explain the effect. Say that, before the
    scrubber, there are 10 micrograms (one millionth of a gram or 2
    billionth's of a pound) of mercury in one cubic meter (about 35 cubic
    feet) of flue gas. Furthermore, let's say that 60 percent of that is
    ionic and the balance is elemental, or 6 micrograms per cubic meter
    ionic and 4 micrograms per cubic meter of elemental mercury. In a power
    plant that shows this mercury release phenomena, we might see less than
    0.1 microgram per cubic meter of ionic mercury at the stack exit, an
    apparent capture of 98.3 percent of the ionic mercury. But, we see the
    stack exit containing maybe 5.5 micrograms per cubic meter of elemental
    mercury, an increase of 37.5 percent.
        The elemental mercury is not being captured but is actually
    increasing across the scrubber. When looking at the total mercury, the
    10 micrograms per cubic meter at the scrubber inlet is reduced to only
    5.6 micrograms per cubic meter (5.5 elemental and 0.1 ionic) at the
    stack, a total reduction of only 44 percent. The only logical
    explanation to explain these example numbers is that some of the
    captured ionic mercury is being re-released as elemental mercury. In
    this case, the ionic mercury is only being captured at 73 percent, when
    the re-released mercury is included.
        This scrubber mercury re-release is not well understood at this
    point. An analysis by EPRI notes a correlation between an increase in
    the amount of fly ash captured in the scrubber and an increase in the
    mercury re-release. Further work by EPRI on a bench-scale scrubber
    shows that this phenomenon is transient, and it is not easy to predict
    when it will occur. Additionally, private testing by Southern Company
    at our DOE-sponsored flue gas scrubber at Georgia Power's Plant Yates,
    south of Atlanta, has shown that this effect is present at some times,
    and not present at others. The significance of this effect is that the
    overall capture of mercury by a wet scrubber may be less over time than
    a short test period would indicate. Further research of this phenomenon
    is needed.
        Most of the previous discussion assumes that the FGD process used
    is the wet limestone, forced-oxidation scrubber. Another process for
    SO2 control, used widely for low sulfur Western coals, is a
    lime-based spray dryer followed by a bag house that collects both the
    reacted lime along with all of the coal ash. The EPA Information
    Collection Request testing in 1999 indicates that this spray dryer-bag
    house FGD process may give very high mercury removals with bituminous
    coals. However, this is a rare application of this technology, and
    unfortunately is not widely applicable to all bituminous coal
    applications. The technology is only effective for SO2
    control for low sulfur coals, is more expensive than the alternatives,
    and creates a large waste stream that has to be carefully handled for
    disposal. While this approach may be used in a few power plants burning
    Eastern bituminous coal for combined SO2 and mercury
    control, I do not expect it to be very widely selected because of these
    limitations.
        Ironically, the best application of this FGD process is for Western
    coals, but there it appears to make the mercury control worse than just
    particulate control alone. That is, the use of a spray dryer-bag house
    system on most low rank coals (sub bituminous and lignite) is normally
    the best engineering and low-cost FGD solution for plants burning these
    coals for SO2 control, but the evidence suggests that it may
    worsen the mercury collection efficiency as compared to the use of a
    bag house alone. For example, EPA states that sub bituminous coal
    plants in the ICR data base with only bag houses average 72 percent
    mercury control, while those with a bag house and a spray dryer for
    SO2 control average only 24 percent mercury removal.
        Various technologies are being investigated to attempt to further
    oxidize elemental mercury to ensure higher removal in a FGD system.
    Chemical injection, plasma discharges, and dedicated catalysts are all
    being tested and developed. These approaches are all under development,
    and only slow progress is being made.

    Selective Catalytic and Non-Catalytic Reduction (SCR & SNCR) NOx
            Controls
        One of the most intriguing possibilities is the ability of NOx
    control selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems to enhance the
    amount of ionic mercury in the flue gas. A report on research done by a
    large German utility company in the early 1990's claims that the
    catalyst used in a SCR system was effective in converting a high
    fraction of the elemental mercury to the ionic form, which was then
    captured in FGD equipment. The German claim was that the SCR catalyst
    changed the chlorine chemistry, making it more likely to convert
    elemental mercury to ionic mercury.
        Based on this German research, EPA originally assumed that any
    power plant equipped with a SCR and FGD, burning any type of coal,
    would see: (1) almost all of the elemental mercury converted to ionic;
    (2) the ionic mercury captured in a scrubber in a high proportion; and
    (3) no mercury re-released from the FGD process all adding up to an
    estimate of an overall 95 percent reduction in mercury emissions from
    those plants. A 95 percent mercury capture would require that the SCR
    catalyst be 97.5 percent effective in converting elemental to ionic
    mercury. Furthermore, the FGD system would have to be 97.5 percent
    effective in removing the ionic mercury that is, not only does the
    scrubber have to perform at least as well on mercury as the
    SO2 (even though the mercury is one-millionth times as
    concentrated), but no re-release of mercury can occur. EPA's
    assumptions were highly optimistic and recent power plant testing has
    shown these assumptions are not always true.
        SCR catalyst degrades over time in its performance to reduce NOx,
    requiring replacement every three to 5 years. The catalytic activity is
    reduced by exposure to flue gas, either by poisoning of the catalyst
    active ingredient from the chemicals in the flue gas or by physical
    plugging of the catalyst surface by ash particles. It is not known, at
    present, how this catalyst deactivation affects its ability to oxidize
    mercury. The mercury oxidation of the catalyst could be reduced at the
    same rate as the NOx reduction, or it might be slower or faster. EPRI
    testing has only looked at two power plants and only in two ozone
    seasons (May 1 to September 30). So we have limited information, both
    in the number of plants tested and the time between tests. Therefore,
    any estimate of the long-term potential for co-benefits of SCR and FGD
    for mercury reductions must consider the possibility of catalyst aging
    and the subsequent potential loss in mercury oxidation.
        For the lower rank coals, and particularly those found in the
    Western U.S., this SCR mercury oxidation does not appear to occur.
    Given the German claim of the effect being based on higher chlorine
    content, this is not much of a surprise. The low rank coals are
    typically low in chlorine, and to make matters worse, the ash of these
    coals is alkaline, so that whatever chlorine that is present, being an
    acid, is usually neutralized by the fly ash before it can ever reach
    the SCR catalyst. Testing in an EPRI program sponsored by utilities
    (including Southern Company) along with the Department of Energy (DOE)
    and the EPA has shown that mercury reduction in low rank coals do not
    seem to be helped by the addition of a SCR system. Since the majority
    of the mercury in the flue gases from these coals in the elemental
    state, the addition of any type of FGD system does not appear to
    control mercury emissions to any significant degree. In other words,
    for low rank coals (typically Western U.S. coals), we do see modest
    benefits on mercury control by adding wet FGD systems, but do not see
    any mercury co-benefits from adding an SCR to the power plants burning
    these coals. EPA has also seen the results of the testing, and we think
    that they have revised their assumptions about co-benefits for lignite
    and sub bituminous coal to reflect this new knowledge, that is, there
    are only modest mercury reductions based on co-benefits of NOx and
    SO2 reductions for these coals.
        At the beginning of the MACT development process, EPA had assumed
    that selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) systems would contribute
    to increased mercury removal, and explicitly had assumptions about its
    performance in their models. SNCR uses ammonia injection at elevated
    temperatures (1900-2400 F) to reduce NOx without the use of a catalyst.
    Two years of testing have shown that this NOx reduction technology has
    no influence on mercury control in any plant with any coal rank.
    Finally, we think that the Agency has conceded this point and we hope
    that they no longer count SNCR as having any influence on mercury
    control.
        Summarizing the current state of knowledge of controlling mercury
    via co-benefits of SO2 and NOx reductions, there are only a
    handful of power plants that have been tested for short time periods.
    Given this limited amount of data, we think that for bituminous coals
    the mercury reductions with a SCR and FGD will probably be between 80-
    90 percent for the best case, and that for sub bituminous and lignite
    coals the reduction will be a modest 20 percent. These estimates are
    optimistic taking into account the previous discussions of catalyst
    aging in SCR systems and mercury re-release for FGD systems, and are
    likely to be reduced even further in the future. We think that EPA is
    currently using an estimate of 90 percent for bituminous coals and
    something less than 90 percent for lignite and sub bituminous.

    Activated Carbon Injection
        The second near-commercial technology for mercury control from
    coal-fired power plants is activated carbon injection (ACI). Activated
    carbon is a specially prepared product of coal or biomass that is able
    to adsorb many chemicals from gases or liquids. One of the primary uses
    of activated carbon is the treatment of drinking water. Water filtering
    systems sold for home use in home improvement stores are typically
    cartridge systems that include activated carbon as part of the filter.
    Activated carbon is being used currently to remove mercury from the
    flue gases from municipal, medical, and hazardous waste incinerators.
    In those applications, activated carbon can routinely collect over 90
    percent of the mercury from the flue gas. However, the mercury
    concentrations in the stack after the activated carbon treatment in
    these incinerators are typically higher than that found in coal flue
    gas before treatment. That is, the amount of mercury in every cubic
    foot of incinerator stack gases after the control system using
    activated carbon is typically 5 to 10 times the amount in untreated
    coal flue gases from power plants. Another way to look at a comparison
    between incinerators and power plants is that most every power plant
    would meet the incinerator mercury regulations without any control
    technologies. Simply, incinerator mercury control by activated carbon
    stops where power plant flue gases begin. Therefore, it is not useful
    to use the experience of activated carbon in incinerators to inform the
    debate on its use in power plants.
        The design of activated carbon injection for mercury control relies
    upon the existing equipment used to remove fly ash from the flue gas to
    also remove the added activated carbon. There are many side issues
    associated with the use of activated carbon in this mercury process
    approach, including contamination of the fly ash with carbon and
    interruption of the normal fly ash control by the added load of
    activated carbon. The injection ahead of electrostatic precipitators,
    which are in use by about 80 percent of the U.S. coal power plants, may
    require large amounts of activated carbon to achieve reasonable mercury
    control. The carbon will contaminate the fly ash making it unusable for
    recycling and may threaten the performance of the electrostatic
    precipitator for its intended use of removing fly ash. Injection of
    activated carbon in a bag house will not need as much activated carbon
    as an electrostatic precipitator, but will also contaminate the fly
    ash.
        There have been only a handful of tests on the use of activated
    carbon to control mercury from coal-fired power plants. The very first
    test at full-scale in the United States was performed at a Southern
    Company power plant, Alabama Power's E.C. Gaston Unit 3, located in
    Wilsonville, Alabama. This was the first in a series of four power
    plant tests in a sequence performed by ADA-Environmental Solutions of
    Littleton, Colorado. The test program was sponsored by DOE's National
    Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) with significant co-funding by
    participating utilities and vendors. All of these four sites are
    somewhat unique, and unfortunately do not well represent the nation's
    power plant fleet.
        Gaston Unit 3 is one of only four power plants in the U.S. that
    have an advanced particulate control system that consists of a small
    bag house installed downstream of the existing electrostatic
    precipitator. This arrangement, known as COHPACTM, is a patented EPRI
    invention. The activated carbon can be injected between the
    electrostatic precipitator and the bag house. The electrostatic
    precipitator collects over 95 percent of the fly ash, while the bag
    house collects the remainder of the ash and the activated carbon. This
    approach to activated carbon injection avoids contamination of the fly
    ash and does not jeopardize the operation of the electrostatic
    precipitator with additional carbon loading. The bag house is a large
    filter, which has hundreds of fabric bags that separate the solid ash
    and carbon from the flue gases, much like the paper bag in a household
    vacuum cleaner. Because the activated carbon can sit on the surface of
    the bags for several minutes and see a substantial amount of flue gas,
    it can effectively collect more mercury from the flue gas than
    injection into an electrostatic precipitator.
        The activated carbon injection testing at Gaston, which burns an
    Eastern U.S. bituminous coal, ended with a 7-day test of mercury
    control, where the average mercury reduction over that time period was
    just under 80 percent, with a high of over 90 percent and a low of only
    36 percent. This was a short-term test and probably does not reflect
    the ability of this system to always perform at this level. We found in
    this testing that the bag house at Gaston is not big enough to
    accommodate the amount of activated carbon needed to consistently
    achieve 90 percent mercury control for even just 1 week of testing. The
    testing was promising and DOE/NETL has funded a follow-on project that
    will test the mercury control at this location for one calendar year.
    This length of testing will allow a better estimate of the potential
    mercury control from this technology over the course of that 1 year. We
    are just starting this longer term testing, and the initial results
    were presented at an international pollution control conference
    sponsored by DOE, EPA, and EPRI just 2 weeks ago here in Washington.
    The initial results are not encouraging we cannot repeat the
    performance of the 7-day test performed in 2001. The electrostatic
    precipitator ahead of the bag house at Gaston Unit 3 is not performing
    as well as it was during the earlier testing, and we cannot inject much
    activated carbon into this system without causing damage to the bag
    house. Two conclusions can be drawn from the first few weeks of
    operation of the long-term testing: (1) the bag house at this unit is
    simply not big enough to handle both the fly ash and carbon loading
    over all operating conditions, and (2) the 80 percent average mercury
    control seen in the earlier 1 week test cannot be sustained over the
    long term. It may be possible to achieve levels higher than 80 percent
    in other power plants with this configuration, assuming that the
    additional capital investment is made to build a large bag house.
    Again, this is a test at a power plant burning Eastern bituminous coal.
        The three other tests of full-scale mercury control using activated
    carbon in the joint industry-DOE project all involve the injection of
    activated carbon into the inlet of an electrostatic precipitator. The
    first electrostatic precipitator injection test was performed at
    Wisconsin Electric's (now We Energies) Pleasant Prairie Power Plant,
    which burns a Western U.S. sub bituminous coal from the Powder River
    Basin in Wyoming and Montana. This unit has a large electrostatic
    precipitator that is likely to be able to handle the additional
    particle loading from the activated carbon. The test that occurred over
    one to 2 weeks was able to achieve a mercury control of between 60 and
    70 percent, but notany higher, regardless of the amount of carbon
    injected into the system. The logical conclusion from the testing seems
    to indicate that there is a chemical limitation on the amount of
    mercury control from low rank coals like lignite and sub bituminous,
    and maybe for Western U.S. bituminous coals from Colorado and New
    Mexico. It appears that, similar to the SCR oxidation of mercury, the
    activated carbon needs sufficient chlorine in the flue gas to collect
    the mercury. Again, this result was over a very limited time span test
    and may not be repeatable over a yearlong period. Longer term testing
    of this approach in several power plants needs to be performed before
    any judgment of the mercury performance can be reliably made.
        An additional consequence became clear during the test at We
    Energies' Pleasant Prairie Power Plant. This site is able to sell all
    of the fly ash it produces for recycling into concrete. The activated
    carbon made the ash not usable for this purpose during the test period,
    but also contaminated the ash for about 4 weeks after carbon injection
    was discontinued. Southern Company declined a similar test at one of
    our sub bituminous coal plants, due to the expense of lost ash sales
    plus the added ash disposal costs.
        The other two tests of activated carbon injection into
    electrostatic precipitators for mercury control were both performed in
    Massachusetts, at PG&E National Energy Group's Salem Harbor and Brayton
    Point power plants. Salem Harbor is peculiar in that it produces a
    large fraction of unburned coal particles that persist into the
    electrostatic precipitator, possibly a result of the large amount of
    South American coal being burned there. This high level of carbon
    produced seems to remove a significant amount of mercury, with a
    baseline removal ranging from 87 to 94 percent with one coal, but
    dropping to 50 to 70 percent with a second coal, all even before
    activated carbon injection. The activated carbon injection was able to
    increase the mercury capture to over 90 percent. Of course, this
    testing has shown that a change of coal supply can dramatically change
    the mercury baseline performance and the subsequent increased capture
    by activated carbon injection.
        Brayton Point is also a peculiar arrangement with two electrostatic
    precipitators in series. In the DOE test, activated carbon was injected
    between the two electrostatic precipitators, much like the injection
    between the ESP and bag house at the Gaston station. The baseline
    mercury removal, that is, the removal before activated carbon injection
    started, was 90.8 percent. This is very high as compared to historical
    data from that unit that recorded baseline mercury removals of 29 to 75
    percent. The results in the 10 days of testing suggest that, for short
    periods, the injection of activated carbon can increase the mercury
    removal from a baseline of 90.8 percent to 94.5 percent with the
    addition of activated carbon (10 pounds carbon injected for every
    million cubic feet of flue gas). Again, the short time of the test and
    the potential change in behavior with a change in coal supply makes it
    hard to extrapolate this performance much beyond the actual period of
    testing.
        All of the electrostatic precipitator tests of activated carbon
    injection to date have involved relatively large, oversized equipment
    where the additional burden of collecting the injected activated carbon
    did not impact the operation, at least in the tests of under 2 weeks
    duration. For the same mercury collection efficiency as a COHPACTM bag
    house, the added carbon cost is substantial enough to justify the
    capital investment to build the bag house.
        Another potentially large problem with this technology is that the
    supply of activated carbon is currently not sufficient to support any
    significant use for utility mercury control. I have publicly stated
    that, due to current uncertainties, Southern Company may use anywhere
    between 500 tons per year to 100,000 tons per year of activated carbon.
    The major U.S. manufacturer of activated carbon, Norit Americas, based
    in Atlanta, Georgia, have told us that they could supply an additional
    20,000 tons per year with their existing capacity. Without long-term
    commitments from buyers, the activated carbon suppliers will very
    likely not make the needed investments to ensure that a large demand
    from the U.S. utility market could be met. In the 1970's, the activated
    carbon industry built capacity in anticipation of clean water
    regulations and those investments resulted in a severe price decrease
    caused by oversupply, when the demand did not appear. The activated
    carbon suppliers are not likely to make the same speculative capital
    investments today. Add to this reluctance to invest ahead of demand the
    fact that it will likely take at least 5 years to design, finance,
    permit, and build activation carbon production facilities, and it
    becomes apparent that, if activated carbon injection becomes the
    technology of choice for power plant mercury control, the supply will
    not be available at the beginning.
        There may be foreign supplies of activated carbon. As discussed at
    a recent conference, there may be about 50,000 to 60,000 tons per year
    available from a major European supplier. Also, China has started
    supplying activated carbon into the U.S. market, but initial experience
    with this material has shown quality control problems with its
    performance. All in all, there may be sufficient carbon available to
    supply a small part of the industry with today's global supply, but
    there is not enough supply for any major use across the Nation by the
    utility industry.
        In early modeling efforts by EPA on the performance of activated
    carbon, the assumptions made about performance and the actual amount of
    activated carbon were grossly optimistic. The Agency used some
    estimates made by DOE in 1999, and the subsequent testing at full scale
    power plants has demonstrated that the performance is not as good as
    the earlier estimates. We think that the current set of performance and
    cost numbers offered by the Utility Air Regulatory Group in the MACT
    Working Group are the best estimate for mercury control processes using
    activated carbon.
        In summary, the limited testing of activated carbon injection for
    power plant mercury control does not represent the average
    configuration of the U.S. power plant fleet, and the short-term tests
    that have taken place only represent what a well-controlled and well-
    managed test period performance could be in other words, are likely to
    be close to the best case. Additional testing at the Southern Company
    plant has already shown that the earlier performance cannot be matched
    at this moment. Certainly additional testing, including long-term tests
    of at least 8 months are needed to understand what the actual
    performance of activated carbon injection over longer times would be,
    with the wide variety of coals in use today. At this moment, the DOE/
    NETL is evaluating a number of proposals from utilities, vendors, and
    research contractors to test activated carbon for longer periods of
    time on a variety of plants, especially those that burn low rank coals.
        With sufficient capital investment to build a COHPACTM bag house
    large enough to handle both the fly ash and activated carbon, short-
    term performance of 90 percent mercury removal with bituminous coals
    may be possible, but, across the industry, an average removal of 80
    percent is more likely to be achieved with today's technology. This
    estimate is based on only one power plant, tested for only 7 days,
    however. It appears that low rank coals, such as lignite and sub
    bituminous coals, may have a limit of 60-70 percent mercury removal,
    regardless of the amount of activated carbon used or whether a bag
    house has been installed. Again, only one power plant has been tested
    for less than 2 weeks to establish this estimate. Under certain
    circumstances, activated carbon injection into a large ESP may be able
    to get incremental mercury control, but only two power plants have been
    tested for less than 2 weeks. Finally, the supply of activated carbon
    is not sufficient today to accommodate a substantial demand from the
    utility sector and it may take 5 years to bring new activated carbon
    production facilities on line.

    Other Technologies
        There are other technologies that show some promise in controlling
    mercury emissions from power plants, but they are all still research
    projects and are nowhere close to commercialization. Some of the multi-
    pollutant processes being developed do claim that mercury control is
    also removed along with SO2, particulates, and NOx. While
    this may be true, there are large questions about the costs,
    reliability, and long-term performance of these technologies. Most of
    these multi-pollutant processes make either fertilizer or acid chemical
    feedstocks from the NOx and SO2, and the ability to sell
    either of these waste streams in the future is questionable. The larger
    the penetration of these technologies into the utility market, the more
    of the byproducts that are produced, quickly over-saturating any
    potential market.
        Possible future technologies that are being researched include
    capture of mercury by gold-plated surfaces, the use of chlorine
    addition to low rank coals to increase the mercury oxidation, injection
    of sulfur compounds to change the elemental and ionic mercury gases to
    solid sulfides that can be captured in the existing particulate control
    devices. Additionally, a large number of alternative sorbents to
    replace activated carbon, either with a less costly material cost or
    improved performance with less material injected, are under
    development. Unfortunately, we cannot predict whether these efforts
    will succeed, and we cannot base national energy policy on the hope
    that something is invented in time to produce the perceived needed
    level of mercury control.

    Timing of Mercury Reductions
        The timing of mercury reductions required, whether by regulations
    under a MACT provision or by a legislative process, needs to take under
    consideration both the state of knowledge about mercury control and the
    ability of the nation's utility industry to install the required
    controls. Already, in the installation of NOx controls for the 2003
    summer ozone season, we have experienced some labor shortages and tight
    supplies of steel, cranes, and auxiliary equipment such as fans, pumps,
    electric motors, switchgear, etc. If mercury control proceeds under a
    MACT regulation, every coal-fired power plant will have to meet the
    stated emissions requirements, and depending on the technologies being
    used, we expect shortages of steel, bag house bags, labor, and
    auxiliary equipment, not to mention the activated carbon supply issues
    discussed earlier. Southern Company estimates that the time required to
    install mercury controls under MACT would be at least 7 years, and the
    time needed for the additional NOx and SO2 controls in Clear
    Skies would take probably eight to 9 years.

    Estimates of Benefits of Utility Mercury Reductions
        EPRI and EPA are both engaged in research to attempt to predict the
    net effect on human health from reductions in emissions from U.S. coal-
    fired power plants. EPRI has just published their initial findings, and
    we think that EPA is working on similar model predictions. In the EPRI
    study, mercury deposition on the continental U.S. is predicted using a
    global mercury source and deposition model. The results indicate that
    the majority, around 70 percent, of the mercury falling on the U.S. is
    from sources outside the U.S. Additionally, this study predicts that
    U.S. utility emissions are estimated to contribute less than 8 percent
    of the mercury depositing in the U.S. This result is significant,
    because it indicates that reductions of mercury emissions from domestic
    utility sources will have a limited response on the amount of mercury
    depositing. In other words, since most of the mercury falling on the
    U.S. comes from overseas, controlling domestic utility emissions can
    have only a limited impact.
        The EPRI study goes on to estimate the change in human exposure
    from significant reductions in utility mercury reductions. The only
    significant route of exposure to humans is through the consumption of
    large fish, captured in the wild. By estimating the change in U.S.
    deposition from reductions in utility emissions, the change in mercury
    in aquatic systems, and subsequently in fish, can be found. Taking the
    analysis one step further, EPRI has estimated the change in exposure to
    humans in the U.S. from utility mercury reductions.
        The EPRI study looked at mercury reductions in a Clear Skies Act
    approach and in a mercury MACT regulation scenario. The results
    indicate under the Clear Skies approach, in the year 2020, mercury
    deposition in the continental U.S. would be reduced by an average of
    1.5 percent, exposure of women of childbearing age to mercury would be
    reduced by 0.5 percent, and the fraction of the population above the
    reference dose for mercury would be reduced by only 0.064 percent. In
    the MACT approach, also for the year 2020, mercury deposition would be
    reduced by 1.2 percent, exposure of women of childbearing age to
    mercury would be reduced by 0.4 percent, and the fraction of the
    population above the reference dose would be reduced by 0.055 percent.
    Since U.S. utility emissions are only a small contributor to mercury in
    the environment, it is not surprising that significant reductions in
    those emissions will not greatly affect human exposure. One significant
    difference in the two approaches is that the present value incremental
    cost for mercury controls by 2020 is estimated to be about $6 billion
    for CSA and $19 billion for MACT.

    Summary
        There are no commercially available technologies for mercury
    controls for coal-fired power plants. There are systems in use in the
    waste incinerator industry, but the EPA requirements for mercury
    control for incinerators allow emitted concentrations to be five to ten
    times higher than uncontrolled coal power plant emissions. In an
    engineering sense, the low concentrations mean that you have to work
    that much harder to get each molecule of mercury. NOx and
    SO2 stack concentrations are one million times higher than
    mercury, so you have to work one million times harder to collect
    mercury as compared to either NOx or SO2.
        There are two near-commercial mercury control technologies at
    present: co-control by FGD systems, with possible beneficial mercury
    chemical changes from SCR systems on plants burning bituminous coals,
    and the injection of activated carbon into existing or new particulate
    control devices, either ESPs or bag houses.
        Plants burning bituminous coal from the Eastern U.S. which have
    installed SCR systems and wet scrubbers are likely to have between 80
    and 90 percent mercury control in the beginning. There are large
    uncertainties about the potential adverse scrubber chemistry that could
    re-release captured mercury and also about the extent of SCR catalytic
    mercury oxidation over time, so it is likely that these estimates may
    decrease as we learn more.
        For low rank coals such as sub bituminous and lignite (along with
    bituminous coal from the Western U.S.), the SCR systems do not appear
    to have any beneficial effects on mercury chemistry, probably due to
    the low chlorine content of the coals. Additionally, the addition of a
    wet FGD scrubber system may increase mercury control slightly, say by
    20 percent, but the addition of a spray-dryer FGD system may even
    decrease the mercury removal as compared to the pre-FGD mercury removal
    performance.
        Activated carbon tests to date have been short, less than 2 weeks,
    and have shown some promise, but also some difficulties. The only long-
    term test that is being performed is at Southern Company's Plant
    Gaston, and the year long test is just beginning. The limited data from
    this one short test suggests that activated carbon injection into a
    COHPACTM bag house installed at a plant burning bituminous coal may be
    able to achieve short-term performance of 90 percent mercury removal,
    but an average across a year is more likely to be around 80 percent. We
    do not know what operation problems may occur after an extended period
    of activated carbon injection, but even at the beginning of the year
    long test, we are not able to match the previous short term
    performance.
        Activated carbon injected into an electrostatic precipitator at a
    plant burning Powder River Basin sub bituminous coal has shown mercury
    removal of 60-70 percent, but only for a short test, and with serious
    consequences for ash sales and disposal. The chemistry of low rank
    coals like these may limit the final mercury removal that can be
    achieved with activated carbon. Again, based on this one power plant
    test for a short period, it is likely that a bag house and activated
    carbon injection would still only achieve 60-70 percent mercury removal
    on these coals.
        Activated carbon supply is also an unanswered question. Activated
    carbon vendors have estimated the U.S. utility market may be between
    500,000 and 1,500,000 tons per year. Between domestic supply and spare
    European capacity, there may be up to 150,000 tons per year available
    today. Without firm commitments, the suppliers are unwilling to make
    the investments to increase the supply, indicating that widespread use
    by the utility industry may create a worldwide shortage of activated
    carbon. Given that it takes roughly 5 years to bring a new activated
    carbon production facility on line, the prospects for widespread
    availability of activated carbon may be questionable.
        In addition, the shortages encountered during the installation of
    NOx controls over the last several years have shown that shortages of
    labor, steel, cranes, and auxiliary equipment can occur, and
    installation of mercury controls under a MACT regulation or
    installation of more NOx and SO2 controls will surely cause
    even greater material and labor shortages. The only way to alleviate
    the shortages is to extend the required performance date to install the
    equipment. These shortages could spill over into other industries and
    cause price increases across the board.
        There are other technologies under development for mercury control,
    but they are all very much still in a research stage. Various multi-
    pollutant processes are being touted, but they suffer from questions
    about performance, cost, and waste disposal issues. Other processes to
    specifically affect or capture mercury are also under development, but
    are at least eight to 15 years away from deployment, if they work at
    all.
        More tests and longer tests are needed to be able to reliably
    estimate performance and design the appropriate equipment and processes
    for mercury reductions in power plants with different equipment
    installed and burning different ranks of coal. The Department of Energy
    is currently evaluating a number of proposals from the utility
    industry, vendors, and research organizations to test a wide variety of
    plants and coals for mercury control, over a longer test period. The
    electric power industry, along with EPRI and equipment vendors, is
    engaged in a large, coordinated effort to develop and optimize cost-
    effective mercury emission reduction processes.
        EPRI modeling suggests that U.S. utility emissions of mercury are
    only a small contributor to deposition of mercury in the continental
    U.S. Significant reductions of those emissions, either under a CSA or
    MACT approach, will only reduce deposition in the U.S. by 1.5 percent,
    and will only decrease exposures of the most sensitive population of
    women of childbearing age by 0.5 percent in 2020, as compared to 1999.
        The utility industry does not have proven technologies to reduce
    mercury emissions, but we know that some reductions will occur as
    SO2 and NOx control systems are installed, either under
    Clear Skies or business-as-usual. The industry does not hold the
    position that mercury reductions should not occur, but asks that right
    timeline should be followed, one that considers the practical aspects
    of the cost and impact of making these reductions. Mercury emission
    reductions that are required before the technology has been fully
    developed will lead to significantly increased costs, to likely fuel
    switching from coal to natural gas, and to possible disruption of the
    nation's energy supply.

                                   __________
    Statement of Dr. Steve Benson, Energy and Environment Research Center,
                         The University of North Dakota

        Thank you, Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, for the
    opportunity to testify today. My name is Steve Benson, and I am a
    Senior Research Manager at the Energy & Environmental Center (EERC) at
    the University of North Dakota in Grand Forks, North Dakota. I have
    conducted and managed research, development, and demonstration projects
    on combustion and environmental control systems for the past 25 years.
        The EERC has worked in the area of mercury research for over 20
    years through projects supported by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE),
    the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), State agencies, and
    industry and is recognized as a world leader on mercury measurement and
    control. One result of this work has been the establishment of the
    Center for Air Toxic Metals (CATM). Specifically, the EERC has
    conducted work in the following areas related to mercury emissions from
    coal-fired power plants:

          Mercury science and chemistry
          Mercury sampling, measurement, and speciation in flue
    gases
          Transformations of mercury forms during combustion and
    gas cooling
          Mercury sorbent development and testing
          Bench-, pilot-, and field-scale demonstrations of mercury
    control technologies
          Mercury oxidation technologies
          Coal properties impacts on mercury control

        Today, I plan to provide a perspective on the challenges of
    controlling mercury emissions from power plants, with a focus on the
    issues related to western low-rank coals. Specifically, I will discuss
    the impacts of coal type on mercury speciation and control, options for
    control, and challenges to overcome.

    Mercury Speciation and Control
        Mercury emissions from utilities burning U.S. coals were determined
    under EPA's Information Collection Request (ICR), which mandated
    mercury and chlorine analyses on coal shipped to units larger than 25
    MWe during 1999 and required emissions testing on 84 units selected to
    represent different categories of air pollution control equipment and
    coal rank.
        Based on ICR data, western coals (lignite and subbituminous) on
    average contain lower levels of mercury, chlorine, and sulfur than
    either eastern Appalachian or interior bituminous coals. Western coals
    are also distinguished by their much higher calcium and sodium
    contents. These differences in constituents have been shown to have
    important effects on the quantity and form of mercury emitted from a
    boiler and on the capabilities of different control technologies to
    remove mercury from flue gas.
        The high chlorine content that is characteristic of eastern
    bituminous coals has been consistently shown to increase the fraction
    of the more easily removable oxidized form of mercury in the total
    mercury emission, as reported both in ICR tests and other mercury
    emission studies. Conversely, the experimental results indicate that
    the low chlorine content of western coals is associated with the
    emission of predominantly elemental mercury that is substantially more
    difficult to remove. The high calcium content of western coals appears
    to further reduce the oxidizing effect of the already low chlorine
    content by removing part of the chlorine throughout the combustion
    process. In short, distinctive differences for western coals result in
    significantly different mercury conversion mechanisms in the combustion
    process that present a unique challenge and employment of effective
    control technologies.
        Measurements of total mercury and speciated mercury forms were made
    before and after the last pollution control device in the plants
    selected for testing under the ICR. These data provide a good starting
    point and valuable guidance for an experimental program targeted at
    developing mercury control technology for western coals. The changes in
    mercury speciation and removal measured across different pollution
    control devices have been correlated with fuel properties. Mercury
    removals were consistently lower for low-chlorine coals and, therefore,
    for western coals. For example, removals across a cold electrostatic
    precipitator (ESP) averaged about 35 percent for bituminous coal
    compared to 10 percent for western low-rank coal (lignite and
    subbituminous), and removals across a cold ESP followed by wet flue gas
    desulfurization (FGD) averaged 65 percent for bituminous coal compared
    to 35 percent for low-rank coal.
        The percentage of elemental mercury in the flue gas leaving the
    furnace and ahead of the pollution control system tended to drop
    sharply, from over 85 percent to about 10 percent at coal chlorine
    contents greater than 150 to 200 ppm, which distinguishes western coal
    from eastern bituminous coal. In general, plants burning coals with low
    levels of chlorine did not reduce oxidized mercury across particulate
    control devices, whereas plants burning coals with high levels of
    chlorine did show some removal of oxidized mercury across particulate
    control devices. Additionally, fabric filters were the only particulate
    control devices that appeared to remove any appreciable amount of
    elemental mercury, but again, significant removal occurs only at coal
    chlorine contents above 200 ppm.
        Both spray dryer absorbers and wet scrubbers remove approximately
    90 percent of the oxidized gaseous mercury entering but essentially
    none of the elemental mercury. Therefore, they can be quite effective
    for mercury removal overall for high-chlorine coals but ineffective for
    low-chlorine coals.
        In summary, the available experimental and field data indicate that
    existing pollution control technologies are not effective in
    controlling the emissions of elemental mercury emitted by low-chlorine
    western coals.

    Mercury Control Options Being Investigated
        Currently, the mercury control strategies for western coal-fired
    power plants involve, first, the enhancement of existing control
    technologies and, second, the investigation and development of new
    control technologies. The enhancement strategies include sorbent
    injection with and without flue gas modifications upstream of an ESP or
    fabric filter, and mercury oxidation upstream of a wet or dry FGD. The
    new technologies include mercury capture using the gold-coated
    materials, baghouse inserts, and carbon beds.
        Sorbent injection upstream of an ESP or fabric filter. Many
    potential mercury sorbents have been evaluated, including carbon-based,
    calcium-based, and metal-based (i.e., gold, silver, etc.) sorbents.
    Activated carbon injection is the most promising and mature technology
    available for mercury control. However, the commercial experience is
    primarily from application of the technology at waste incinerators
    where very high chlorine levels are present. The projected annual cost
    for activated carbon adsorption of mercury in a duct injection system
    for a coal-fired utility is significant. Carbon-to-mercury weight
    ratios of 3000 18,000 (lb of carbon injected per lb of mercury in flue
    gas) have been estimated to achieve 90 percent mercury removal from a
    coal combustion flue gas containing 10 mg/Nm3 of mercury. Lower-cost
    and noncarbon-based sorbents that have less impact on fly ash sales and
    more effectively designed sorbent injection processes are needed to
    reduce costs of sorbent injection.
        Recently pilot-scale testing of mercury removal efficiencies for
    activated carbon injection upstream of an ESP only and an ESP baghouse
    (fabric filter) was conducted for a Fort Union lignite coal. The
    results, illustrated in Figure 1, for the ESP only were compared to
    those obtained at full-scale utility boilers, while injecting activated
    carbons into a bituminous coal combustion flue gas upstream of a
    ToxiconTM (pulse-jet FF) and into bituminous and Powder River Basin
    (PRB) subbituminous coal combustion flue gases upstream of an ESP. For
    the ESP cases, the pilot-scale lignite and utility-scale eastern
    bituminous coal tests showed mercury removal efficiency increased with
    increasing activated carbon injection rates. Conversely, mercury
    removal efficiency was never greater than 70 percent, regardless of the
    activated carbon injection rate into the PRB subbituminous coal
    combustion flue gas. This limitation is probably caused by the low
    amount of acidic flue gas constituents such as chlorides that promote
    mercury-activated carbon adsorption.
        The use of the ESP fabric filter showed good control efficiencies
    for lignite and bituminous coal because of the longer contact time with
    the activated carbon sorbents. However, testing conducted at a lignite-
    fired power plant equipped with a spray dryer baghouse firing Fort
    Union lignite indicated poor performance of conventional activated
    carbon injection to control mercury. The results indicate poor control
    efficiency for two different types of activated carbons. Mercury
    removal efficiencies were less than 35 percent. The poor results are
    due to the low chlorine containing flue gas and the high proportion of
    elemental mercury in the flue gas stream. These results re-emphasize
    the challenges associated with mercury control for low-rank western
    coals.
        Researchers are striving to attain a more thorough understanding of
    mercury species reactions on activated carbon surfaces in order to
    produce more efficient sorbents. Sorbents for elemental mercury control
    must both oxidize the mercury and provide a binding site.
        Figure 1. Pilot-scale ESP and full-scale ToxiconTM (ESP FF) and ESP
    mercury removal efficiencies as a function of activated carbon
    injection rate.
        Mercury oxidation upstream of wet and dry scrubbers. Mercury
    oxidation technologies being investigated include catalysts, chemical
    agents, and cofiring materials. The catalysts that have been tested
    include selective catalytic reduction (SCR) catalysts for NOx
    reduction, noble (palladium) metal-impregnated catalysts, and oxide-
    impregnated catalysts. The chemical agents include chlorine-containing
    salts and cofiring fuels that contain oxidizing agents.
        SCR catalysts have been tested for their ability to oxidize
    mercury. The ability to oxidize mercury has shown mixed results.
    Mercury speciation sampling has been conducted upstream and downstream
    of SCR catalysts at power plants that fire bituminous and subbituminous
    coals. The results of testing indicate evidence of mercury oxidation
    across SCR catalysts when firing bituminous coals. However, when firing
    subbituminous coal, the results indicate limited oxidation. This is
    based on a limited number of tests, and more testing needs to be
    conducted on low-rank coals. The ability of SCR systems to contribute
    to oxidation appears to be coal specific and is related to the
    chloride, sulfur, and calcium content of the coal as well as
    temperature, specific operation of the SCR catalyst, and duration of
    exposure to flue gas. Western coal ash can cause blinding of the SCR
    catalyst and, therefore, limit the use of SCR for western coals.
        Noble metal-impregnated catalysts have shown high potential to
    oxidize elemental mercury. Results from a slipstream device at a North
    Dakota power plant indicated that over 80 percent conversion to
    oxidized mercury is possible for periods of up to 6 months. Additional
    larger-scale, longer-term tests are still needed to determine if the
    technology is feasible. Tests were also conducted using iron oxides and
    chromium, with little success of oxidation.
        Fuel additives for mercury oxidation have shown the potential to
    oxidize mercury. Chemical additives or oxidants such as chlorine-
    containing salts added to the lignite have shown the ability to convert
    elemental mercury to more reactive oxidized forms. Recent short-term
    testing conducted at a full-scale pulverized-coal-fired North Dakota
    power plant indicated the injection chloride salts resulted in
    increased mercury oxidation in the flue gas. Mercury oxidation of up to
    70 percent was observed at a salt injection rate that resulted in an
    HCl concentration of 110 ppm in the flue gas. In addition, the
    injection of salt resulted in enhanced removal of mercury across the
    spray dryer baghouse with removal efficiencies of up to 50 percent in
    short-term field testing. Significant operational impacts were observed
    during the short-duration testing. Pressure drop across the spray dryer
    baghouse increased with salt addition. Air heater pluggage was observed
    with some of the salt compounds. The short tests also do not show the
    potential long-term impact on corrosion, operations, and waste
    disposal.

    Conclusions
        Currently, there is no single best technology that can be applied
    broadly to control mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants.
    Combinations of available control methods may be able to provide up to
    90 percent control for some plants but not for others, depending upon
    coal type. Lignite-and subbituminous coal-fired power plants are faced
    with the most significant challenge because reliable, demonstrated
    control technologies for highly unreactive elemental mercury are not
    commercially available. Only limited short-term tests have been
    performed to date. Significant research, development, and field testing
    are required to prepare the electric utility sector for implementation
    of mercury standards.

                                   __________
           Statement of Dr. Richard Bucher, W.L. Gore and Associates

        Good morning, Chairman Voinovich, Ranking Member Carper and members
    of the subcommittee. My name is Richard Bucher, and I am here to speak
    on behalf of W.L. Gore & Associates, Inc. about some exciting technical
    advances that may offer a solution to the vitally important challenge
    of reducing mercury emissions.
        Gore is a leading company in the field of advanced materials that
    provide creative solutions to long-standing problems. We believe that a
    new mercury capture system we have developed, and that has recently
    been tested at the EPA, may well offer dramatic improvements in the
    effectiveness, efficiency and cost of mercury capture from flue gas. We
    are very excited by this development, as an improvement of this kind in
    mercury control could greatly contribute both to the long-term
    sustainability of power generation from coal, and to the health of all
    Americans.
        I greatly appreciate the opportunity to testify today. My employer,
    W.L. Gore & Associates, is best known as the maker of GORE-TEX fabrics.
    Many of you may own or use GORE-TEX garments for hiking, hunting or
    running. Gore has been using the same high-performance polymer membrane
    that makes our fabrics waterproof, windproof and breathable in many
    other applications for more than 30 years. We manufacture a wide range
    of electronic, medical and industrial materials and devices. Of main
    interest to us today is the application of the GORE-TEX membrane, and
    related membranes, to the field of industrial filtration.
        Gore has built a reputation since the 1970's as a leading supplier
    of high-performance filter bags to the energy industry, cement kilns,
    chemical and metals production facilities, waste incinerators and other
    industrial applications. Beginning in the 1990's, Gore scientists and
    engineers have discovered and developed a series of radical
    improvements to our bags through embedding additional materials and
    properties into the structure that makes the bags work. These advances
    have led to new applications for capturing over 99.99 percent of fine
    particulate, for catalytically destroying over 99 percent of dioxins
    and furans, and most recently for capturing over 90 percent of mercury
    in flue gas streams. The result is a cleaner, safer, healthier
    environment and more sustainable industry.
        Our invention in the area of mercury capture has moved well beyond
    the lab bench and shows dramatic promise for the future. Our product
    relies on the same basic technique as the best current technology using
    activated carbon to capture mercury but in a way that is up to two
    orders or roughly 100 times more effective--and that has dramatic
    positive implications for the waste handling and cost features of our
    solution.
        Current technologies to control mercury emissions from coal fired
    power plants include activated carbon injection, wet scrubber
    technology, selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technology,
    combinations of these, as well as a host of other potential options.
    The United States Environmental Protection Agency's ``Mercury Study
    Report to Congress'' from December 1997 presents an exhaustive review
    of the technological options and their associated financial impact.
    This report indicates that active carbon injection represents the
    greatest potential for the lowest cost, most technically feasible
    solution.
        Unfortunately, activated carbon injection has significant drawbacks
    that make the technology incompatible with some coal fired power
    facilities and fiscally prohibitive to others. A primary drawback of
    activated carbon injection is contamination of the facility's fly ash.
    Not only does the presence of the carbon render the fly ash un-salable,
    but also the presence of mercury has the potential to require the fly
    ash to be classified as a hazardous waste and be disposed of
    accordingly. Additionally, the literature remains inconclusive
    regarding the ability of activated carbon to consistently control
    elemental mercury emissions, making this technology potentially
    incompatible with many existing facilities burning lignite and Powder
    River Basin (PRB) coals. Activated carbon injection also requires a
    coal fired power plant to purchase, store, inject and dispose of a
    large volume of material. This has the secondary impact of requiring
    additional footprint and capital expenditures related to the necessary
    equipment, and also further burdens the particulate capture equipment
    with additional dust loading and pressure drop. Wet scrubber technology
    is incapable of controlling elemental mercury emissions, and SCR
    (selective catalytic reduction) technology is prohibitively expensive
    when employed solely for mercury control.
        The lack of a financially and technically compelling alternative
    for mercury emissions control from coal fired power plants led W.L.
    Gore and Associates, Inc. to create a technology project focused on
    investigating the feasibility of efficiently trapping and immobilizing
    gaseous mercury compounds from flue-gas streams using a reactive filter
    system. The progress to date of this work is summarized in this
    testimony.
        Initial work at Gore focused on developing a wide variety of
    reactive mercury trapping formulations. A bench-top screening
    experiment was then conducted to identify formulations with the best
    opportunity for long-term success. To add credibility and confidence to
    this study, all testing was performed at the EPA's research facility in
    Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. The mercury test reactor
    utilized allowed for control of inlet concentrations of mercury,
    SO2, NOx, H20 and O2. Analysis methods included
    both continuous mercury monitoring and the widely accepted standard
    Ontario Hydro test procedure. To accelerate the testing an inlet
    mercury level of 1 ppm Hg, far in excess of typical coal fired power
    plant emissions, was selected. To further challenge the samples,
    testing was conducted at 185 C (365 F), significantly above typical
    baghouse conditions.
        The performance of the highly active samples were then compared
    with state-of-the-art mercury absorbent technology as reported in the
    literature. Most comparison materials represented treated and untreated
    activated carbons. A summary of the data is shown in figure 1, with
    traditional activated carbon capacities shown in blue (as reported in
    the literature) and capacities for Gore technology shown in maroon. As
    illustrated the Gore technology shows a dramatic increase in the
    adsorption capacity in comparison to conventional materials.

       Figure 1: Mercury adsorption capacity comparison of conventional
                       technologies with Gore technology.

        The key to our technology lies in this increased capacity to
    capture and hold mercury. This advance has the potential to allow the
    coal fired power industry to move the function of mercury control from
    a consumable material, as with traditional activated carbon injection,
    to a system component, such as a filter bag or a filter bag insert.
    Retrofitting a facility with a fabric filter bag-house already in place
    can be as easy as dropping mercury trapping inserts into the existing
    filters, requiring no additional system infrastructure or space. Most
    significantly this approach does not contaminate the fly ash with
    mercury-laden activated carbon, allowing facilities to continue to
    sell, as opposed to landfill, this valuable by-product of the coal
    fired power industry. Finally, our technology is completely passive in
    nature. Once installed it is always operating, continuously protecting
    the air we breathe, and does not require additional operators,
    maintenance or monitoring.
        Full size samples have been produced to test mechanical performance
    and integrity in a full-scale commercial facility. Figure 2 shows a
    photograph of a full size Gore-Tex filter bag with a mercury capture
    insert. Two such prototypes have been installed on a commercial
    incineration facility and have been successfully operational since
    November 2002. This test continues to run to demonstrate long term
    mechanical integrity.

              Figure 2: Filter bag, mercury capture insert system.

        As indicated, the development of our technology has progressed from
    the laboratory/bench scale phase to pilot testing. Our most significant
    testing to date was conducted at the EPA on their pilot scale coal
    combustion unit. The 7-week trial, with 24-hour operation, was designed
    to test the long-term viability of the technology under a variety of
    conditions, burning both Powder River Basin (PRB) coal and Lignite
    coal. Coal burning trial results, illustrated in Figure 3, indicate
    mercury capture rates consistently in excess of 90 percent.

       Figure 3: Mercury test results before and after the Gore mercury
    capture system. Tests conducted with PRB Coal, Lignite Coal and Mercury
            doped Nature Gas (to simulate high mercury inlet levels)

        These results, assuming further successful field verification,
    would allow coal burning facilities to easily comply with the most
    stringent regulations set forth in the CLEAR SKIES Act of 2003, and the
    CLEAN AIR PLANNING Act of 2003, and would even approach the control
    levels required in the CLEAN POWER Act of 2003.
        As a private company serving the air pollution control industry for
    over 30 years, we at W.L. Gore & Associates clearly realize that even
    the most advanced technology must provide our customers an economic
    advantage. Our mercury technology is being designed to provide the
    benefits stated above, while potentially costing considerably less than
    activated carbon injection. The EPA research and development report
    titled ``Performance and Cost of Mercury Emission Control Technology
    Applications on Electric Utility Boilers'' identifies carbon injection
    as the most cost-effective approach available to date for utilities
    without existing scrubbers and SCR systems. For example activated
    carbon injection for a 110 MW facility is projected to cost
    approximately $700,000 per year. When the lost revenue of un-salable
    fly ash is added, these numbers inflate to a range from $1.1MM to
    $1.5MM per year. Current estimates indicate our technology could be 38
    percent to 83 percent lower than these values, making our approach both
    easier to implement, and more cost effective.
        Although we have not begun marketing this technology to the coal
    fired power industry, our interactions with prospective customers have
    been nothing short of extremely encouraging. Owners and operators of
    our nations coal fired power plants have expressed enthusiastic support
    for our concept, citing the ease of implementation, minimal impact on
    system performance, and most of all the preservation of fly ash value
    which is so critical to their bottom line. Indeed initial support has
    been so strong that most facilities we've interacted with have eagerly
    volunteered as locations for future field-testing.
        Once again, I appreciate the opportunity to testify before you
    today regarding the important issue of mercury emissions control. W.L.
    Gore & Associates remains committed to developing innovative,
    economically feasible technologies to address our nation's air quality
    challenges. We look forward to continuing to work with the committee,
    the EPA and the coal fired power industry to make this technology a
    commercial reality.
        Thank you again for allowing me to testify, and I'm pleased to
    answer any questions you may have for me.
        GORE-TEX is a Registered Trademark of W.L. Gore & Associates, Inc.
       Statement of Hon. Denise Nappier, Treasurer, State of Connecticut
        Good morning. My name is Denise Nappier, and I am Treasurer of the
    State of Connecticut. I appear before you as an institutional investor
    and the principal fiduciary of a $17 billion pension fund representing
    160,000 beneficiaries and plan participants. As Treasurer, I am elected
    by the people of my State, who, like millions of Americans, have sought
    to ensure their families' economic future through investments in the
    capital markets.
        I appreciate the opportunity to testify today on the relationship
    between climate change, corporate governance, and the well-being of
    institutional and individual investors.
        I am sure you have heard considerable testimony from others more
    expert than I am on the science of climate change, so I won't go there.
    What I will do is give you the perspective of an institutional investor
    whose responsibility it is to look to the long term value of our
    pension fund.
        You know, we all learned a number of very painful but very valuable
    lessons from Enron and the corporate scandals that followed, and we
    must not allow ourselves to lose sight of those lessons. We learned
    about the disastrous impact on our investment savings, our jobs and our
    economy. That is when transparency, accountability and an honest
    assessment of risk are not viewed by companies as priorities, either by
    design or otherwise.
        As institutional and individual investors, we need accurate and
    complete disclosure of information that could affect the current and
    future health of the companies we invest in and that goes beyond
    accounting to include, among other things, climate change as a risk
    factor.
        The consequences for those companies that do not act responsibly
    today and take steps to assess and mitigate the risk associated with
    climate change can be quite devastating. For example, companies could
    face the prospect of losing their competitive edge, incurring
    litigation costs, or being saddled with unforeseen capital expenses,
    just to name a few. All of these factors and others can erode
    shareholder value and place today's seemingly solid investment in
    jeopardy.
        Climate change may well be about our planet's future, but it is
    also about the financial risks to corporations, and the impact on the
    retirement savings of millions of Americans. As a result, we have every
    right to know what is being done about it and how America's
    corporations will protect their bottom line, and thereby the value of
    our investments.
        I believe that this issue is quickly becoming the leading edge of
    the next wave of corporate governance issues, and that the market place
    must begin to closely scrutinize companies to determine whether they
    have honestly, directly and thoroughly evaluated climate change as a
    risk factor and developed a proper response to it.
        You know, in finance, where there is risk, there can also be
    reward. A report by the Rose Foundation last year, ``The Environmental
    Fiduciary'', reviewed the findings of a number of studies on this
    issue, and concluded that ``in many cases improving environmental
    performance provides a measurable boost to profitability and
    shareholder value, especially over the long term.''
        So, we have a real opportunity here to not only protect our
    shareholder value, but also to achieve added value.
        While you in Congress are debating the merits of a legislative
    response to climate change, such as whether or not to enact mandatory
    caps on carbon emissions, other nations are preparing to implement the
    provisions of the Kyoto Protocol which include mandatory provisions.
    Many of the companies in which we invest particularly companies such as
    GE, ExxonMobil, and Daimler Chrysler operate in a global economy. For
    them, carbon regulation is not a future possibility, it is an imminent
    reality. And many State governments are also considering, and enacting,
    legislation addressing climate change.
        Beyond the regulatory environment, shareholders are now advancing
    this issue. This year, resolutions on climate change were introduced at
    23 U.S. companies and the Connecticut pension funds filed two of these
    and co-filed on a third.
        Shareholders are asking companies to report on their greenhouse gas
    emissions, or to set a goal to reduce emissions, or to report on the
    potential future financial risk to the company from their past,
    present, and future emissions and to issue a plan to mitigate that
    risk.
        Some of these resolutions were withdrawn after productive
    discussions between shareholders and management. Most of the
    resolutions, however, were opposed by management and the directors.
    That opposition may prove to be shortsighted penny wise and pound-
    foolish.
        At the annual shareholder meeting of American Electric Power held
    this past April, the climate change resolution sponsored by Connecticut
    received the support of 27 percent of shareholders voting. While some
    people may say 27 percent is not a majority, I believe this vote is
    both extraordinary and virtually unprecedented. And I should add that
    an article in the Wall Street Journal the next day shared that view.
        In fact, the percentage of shares voted in support of climate
    change resolutions has doubled in the last 2 years, according to data
    from the Investor Responsibility Research Center. Make no mistake,
    there is significant investor concern about the impact that climate
    change could have on our nation's economy.
        In addition to the shareholder resolutions, other efforts to
    encourage disclosure of potential risk are underway:

          Connecticut is a signatory of the Carbon Disclosure
    Project which surveyed the 500 largest companies in the world, and
    found that while 80 percent acknowledge the importance of climate
    change as a financial risk, only about 40 percent were actually taking
    action to address the risks and opportunities.
          We also participated in a year-long dialog sponsored by
    the Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES), which
    brought together investors, environmental activists and electric power
    companies to discuss the potential financial impact of climate change
    and efforts to mitigate its effects. That final report is to be issued
    shortly.
          We have joined other investors in urging the Securities
    and Exchange Commission to insist on more comprehensive disclosure of
    climate risk.
          And I have begun organizing an Institutional Investor
    Summit which will be held this fall in New York City to discuss these
    issues and set an agenda for action to protect the long-term value of
    our investments.

        In conclusion, to look at climate change only as an environmental
    issue misses the point. Climate change is an investor security issue of
    the highest magnitude, and the work of corporations, legislators,
    regulators, and investors is intertwined and interdependent. That's why
    it is so important that we work together to protect the long-term value
    of our investments, as well as our economic well-being.
        I appreciate the opportunity to share my views with you today, and
    stand ready to work with you in the future. Thank you very much.
                                   __________
    Statement of Dr. Margot Thorning, Chief Economist, American Council for
                               Capital Formation

    Executive Summary
        U.S. economy. The reason that the Bush Administration rejected the
    Kyoto Protocol approach to addressing climate change was that they had
    analyzed the costs of sharp, near term emission reductions and found
    that the economic costs were significant and the benefits(in terms of
    reduced global concentrations of CO2) were negligible. A range of
    credible macroeconomic models showed that reducing U.S. CO2 emissions
    to the Kyoto Protocol level(7 percent below 1990 levels by 2010) would
    reduce U.S. GDP by 2 to almost 4 percent annually.
        Impact of Clear Skies Act of 2003 (S. 485) on the Financial Health
    of the Utility Sector. Most observers conclude that pollution reduction
    targets in S. 485 will be a challenge for utilities and add billions of
    dollars to utilities costs. Nonetheless, some in the industry believe
    that the Clear Skies goals are achievable and can be reached without
    sharp impacts on electricity prices or on the financial viability of
    the industry. Providing certainty to investors for the next decade and
    a half as to the targets for the three pollutants is, in this instance
    , likely to reduce the risk and the cost of capital for utility
    investors.
        Impact of Carbon Emission Emission Targets on the U.S. Utility
    Sector. Proponents of carbon emission caps for the utility sector argue
    that eventually the U.S. will decide to impose carbon caps and that
    utilities would feel that ``safer'' about investing if they were told
    now what the carbon reduction target would be. The argument has several
    weaknesses. First, imposing carbon caps such as those proposed by
    Senator Jeffords, which requires a reduction in CO2 in the range of the
    cut required by the Kyoto Protocol would be just the first step in a
    series of ever more severe emission reductions. Second, unlike their
    competitors in the EU, U.S. firms would be compelled to meet the
    emission caps mandated by government legislation. Thus, European
    companies are not generally threatened with harsh legal penalties as
    are U.S. firms when targets are missed. Third, carbon caps will
    increase the price of electricity. As U.S. economic growth slows in
    response to higher electricity prices, demand for electricity falls and
    profits decline. Thus, by weakening demand for the product
    (electricity) carbon caps will increase the the risk and uncertainty of
    investment in utilities.
        A Positive Step to Reducing the Risk and Increasing Certainty for
    Utility Investment. Many experts conclude that the depreciation
    allowances provided for utility investments under the Federal tax code
    are out of date. Now that utility markets are becoming increasingly
    deregulated, investors have no assurance that their investment will
    actually pay off. Thus, shorter capital cost recovery periods could
    materially reduce the risk of investment because the payback period
    would be shorter.
        Climate is a Global Issue, Requiring a Global Perspective. Any
    threat of climate change associated with greenhouse gas emissions is
    linked to global emissions, not emissions in any one country or one
    industry. And given that emissions in developing countries like China
    and India are projected to account for 84 percent of the increase in
    global emissions between 1990 and 2010, any climate policy that does
    not address developing country emissions is doomed to failure.

    Introduction
        My name is Margo Thorning and I am pleased to present this
    testimony to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee,
    Subcommittee on Clean Air, Climate Change, and Nuclear Safety.
        The American Council for Capital Formation represents a broad
    cross-section of the American business community, including the
    manufacturing and financial sectors, Fortune 500 companies and smaller
    firms, investors, and associations from all sectors of the economy. Our
    distinguished board of directors includes cabinet members of prior
    Republican and Democratic administrations, former Members of Congress,
    prominent business leaders, and public finance and environmental policy
    experts.
        The ACCF is now celebrating its 30th year of leadership in
    advocating tax, regulatory, environmental, and trade policies to
    increase U.S. economic growth and environmental quality.
        We commend Chairman Voinovich and his committee for their focus on
    positive changes to the Clean Air Act as contained in the Bush
    Administration's Clear Skies proposal. The Clear Skies proposal calls
    for reductions in SO2, nitrous oxides (NOx), and mercury, but does not
    regulate CO2 emissions. The focus of my testimony will be on the
    potential impact of the Clear Skies Act of 2003 and proposals to cap
    power plant carbon emissions, such as those put forward by Senator
    Jeffords, on the financial health and vitality of the utility sector.
    Other proposals include caps on emissions for other sectors of the
    economy.

    Impact of Carbon Caps on the U.S. economy
        The reason that the Bush Administration rejected the Kyoto Protocol
    approach to addressing climate change was that they had analyzed the
    costs of sharp, near term emission reductions and found that the
    economic costs were significant and the benefits(in terms of reduced
    global concentrations of CO2) were negligible. A range of credible
    macroeconomic models showed that reducing U.S. CO2 emissions to the
    Kyoto Protocol level(7 percent below 1990 levels by 2010) would reduce
    U.S. GDP by 2 to almost 4 percent annually.
        The models on which the Administration relied showed that as carbon
    emissions are capped or constrained, economic growth slows due to lost
    output as new energy taxes are imposed and prices rise for carbon-
    intensive goods, which must be produced using less carbon and more
    expensive production processes. In addition, the capital stock
    accumulates more slowly reflecting the premature obsolescence of
    capital equipment due to the sharp energy price increases required to
    meet a target of reducing emissions to 93 percent of l990 levels by
    2010.
        Instead, the Administration has chosen a different strategy, one
    based on accelerating the downward trend in U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG)
    emission intensity. The goal of reducing economy wide GHG intensity per
    dollar of GDP by 18 percent over the next decade(compared to a 14
    percent reduction under the baseline) will allow continued economic
    growth while encouraging a slowing of the rate of growth of CO2
    emissions. This alternative approach does, however, require a major
    commitment to incentives for deploying new technology, a long term
    research and development program for carbon sequestration, alternative
    energy sources for electricity generation, transportation and energy
    conservation.
        Given the quality and quantity of empirical research by
    demonstrating that near term targets and timetables for CO2 emission
    reductions will cost U.S. jobs, economic growth and competitiveness
    (see www.accf.org for testimony before the Senate Governmental Affairs
    Committee in June, 2001 for more details), it seems unwise to propose
    hobbling the U.S. utility sector with the same type of regime which the
    U.S. Senate rejected by a vote of 95 to 0 in l997 for the U.S. economy
    as a whole. Impact of Clear Skies Act of 2003 (S. 485) on the Financial
    Health of the Utility Sector.
        The focus of the Committees' hearing today is to assess the effects
    of S. 485, the ``Clear Skies Act of 2003'' on the ability of the
    utility sector reduce pollution from SO2, NO2 and mercury and meet the
    expected growth in demand for electricity as well. Most observers
    conclude that pollution reduction targets in S. 485 will be a challenge
    for utilities and add billions of dollars to utilities costs.
    Nonetheless, some in the industry believe that the Clear Skies goals
    are achievable and can be reached without sharp impacts on electricity
    prices or on the financial viability of the industry. Providing
    certainty to investors for the next decade and a half as to the targets
    for the three pollutants is, in this instance, likely to reduce the
    risk and the cost of capital for utility investors.
    Impact of Carbon Emission Emission Targets on the U.S. Utility Sector
        Proponents of carbon emission caps for the utility sector argue
    that eventually the U.S. will decide to impose carbon caps and that
    utilities would feel that ``safer'' about investing if they were told
    now what the carbon reduction target would be. The argument has several
    weaknesses.
        First, imposing carbon caps such as those proposed by Senator
    Jeffords, which requires a reduction in CO2 in the range of the cut
    required by the Kyoto Protocol would be just the first step in a series
    of ever more severe emission reductions (see Figure 1). This agenda was
    clearly understood by the architects of Kyoto in 1997. For example, Tim
    Wirth, the former Clinton Administration climate policy negotiator,
    testified in 1997 that carbon emissions had to be cut by up 10 times
    the Kyoto target (a 70 percent reduction). The UK has recently
    announced a target of a 60 perecent reduction by 2050. Adopting a
    proposal such as S. 366, which requires cuts almost as large as the
    Kyoto Protocol would increase the pressure on the U.S. from the
    European Union to adopt the EU's next emission reduction target for the
    second commitment period. The EU is expected to push for a 60 percent
    reduction from 1990 emission levels by the year 2050 at the COP 9
    meeting later this year in Italy. Thus, even if the U.S. imposes a
    carbon cap like that in S. 366, there can be no certainty those caps
    will hold in the future and that the goal posts will not be moved back
    in response to pressure from the EU.
        Second, unlike their competitors in the EU, U.S. firms would be
    compelled to meet the emission caps mandated by government legislation.
    In contrast, the relationship between the regulators and the regulated
    is different for industry in the EU; there is more accommodation and
    willingness to let targets slip if they are not achieved. Thus,
    European companies are not generally threatened with harsh legal
    penalties as are U.S. firms when targets are missed. In addition, the
    European Union's own projections indicate that the EU is not likely to
    meet its first GHG emissions reduction target.
        Third, carbon caps will increase the price of electricity. As U.S.
    economic growth slows in response to higher electricity prices, demand
    for electricity falls and profits decline. As utilities attempt to
    switch from coal to natural gas to reduce CO2 emissions, gas prices
    rise which in turn raises the cost of feedstocks to the chemical and
    fertilizer industries and fuel to other industrial sectors. As previous
    research has demonstrated, carbon caps will make it harder for U.S.
    manufacturing to keep its operations at home and will increase the
    attractiveness of locating in areas like China with low cost labor and
    no carbon emission caps. Thus, by weakening demand for the product
    (electricity) carbon caps will increase the the risk and uncertainty of
    investment in utilities.

    A Positive Step to Reducing the Risk and Increasing Certainty for
            Utility Investment
        Many experts conclude that the depreciation allowances provided for
    utility investments under the Federal tax code are out of date. Now
    that utility markets are becoming increasingly deregulated, investors
    have no assurance that their investment will actually pay off. Thus,
    shorter capital cost recovery periods could materially reduce the risk
    of investment because the payback period would be shorter. A U.S.
    Department of the Treasury report to Congress released in 2000 noted
    that the current class lives for utilities may no longer be appropriate
    because of increased competitiveness in the industry.
        If the United States is to meet the challenges of maintaining
    strong productivity growth, then new investment in all types of assets,
    including energy supply, will be required. For example, investorowned
    utilities estimate needed capital expenditures of almost $90 billion
    over the 2001-03 period. A study commissioned by the ACCF Center for
    Policy Research shows that the United States ranks in the bottom third
    or below in terms of capital cost recovery allowances for transmission
    and generation of electricity, as well as investments in pollution
    control (see Figure 2 and Table 1). For example, after 5 years, a U.S.
    company recovers only 29 percent of its investment in a combined heat
    and power generation facility compared to 51 percent in Germany, 53
    percent in Japan, 100 percent in the Netherlands, and 105 percent in
    China. Thus, investment costs are recovered much more quickly in these
    and other countries with which the United States competes or where U.S.
    business might choose to locate or expand manufacturing operations.
    (See previous ACCF testimony at www.accf.org for additional
    international comparisons.)
        Corporate tax rates are also high in the United States relative to
    our competitors, and this tendency is worsening. The average top
    corporate income tax rate in the European Union has dropped from 34.4
    percent in 1995 to 31.7 percent in 2001; the top U.S. corporate income
    tax rate was 35 percent in 1995 and remains at that level today.

    Climate is a Global Issue, Requiring a Global Perspective
        Any threat of climate change associated with greenhouse gas
    emissions is linked to global emissions, not emissions in any one
    country or one industry. And given that emissions in developing
    countries like China and India are projected to account for 84 percent
    of the increase in global emissions between 1990 and 2010, any climate
    policy that does not address developing country emissions is doomed to
    failure. Promoting a voluntary, economy-linked goal for developing
    countries encourages their participation in a global effort without
    threatening their goal of improving living standards for their
    citizens.
        Pro-growth tax changes, including faster depreciation and enhanced
    tax credits combined with regulatory reform could strengthen the U.S.
    economy and reduce emissions intensity.

                                   __________
           Statement of Wes Taylor, President, Production, TXU Energy

    Introduction and Background
        Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, I am privileged to
    appear today on behalf of TXU and participate in this subcommittee's
    ongoing review of S. 485, the Clear Skies Act. I applaud the
    comprehensive nature of the subcommittee's hearing process for S. 485,
    and I hope that you will find my statement today on electric generator
    capital investment decisions helpful during your continued
    deliberations.
        TXU supports President Bush's efforts to reduce SO2, NOx
    and mercury emissions through a three pollutant framework such as that
    used in the Clear Skies Act. However, if the Clear Skies Act is to
    avoid harmful fuel switching, the Clear Skies legislation must base
    Phase I mercury limits on ``co-benefits'' (i.e., that level of mercury
    emission reduction that results from meeting SO2 and NOx
    emission limitations) and should not mandate controls on carbon
    emissions. Only under these conditions can the Clear Skies Act meet the
    goal of promoting long-term planning certainty for the electric
    generator sector and achieving significant reductions in emissions of
    NOx, SO2 and mercury.
        My statement today will first discuss the general approach used by
    TXU and other electric generators to analyze capital investment
    decisions relating to emission control equipment. Typically, this
    approach includes identification of all potential compliance options,
    including shutting down power plants and switching fuels, and an
    extensive long-term cost/benefit analysis for each compliance option.
        The second part of my statement will focus specifically on TXU's
    selection of the SO2 and NOx controls necessary to meet
    current State and Federal emissions requirements. It has been critical
    that TXU accurately estimate both the cost and effectiveness of the
    available control technologies. Notably, TXU's efforts to significantly
    reduce NOx and SO2 emissions as required by Texas law and
    the Texas State Implementation Plan under the Clean Air Act have been
    extraordinarily successful, resulting in early compliance with all
    applicable mandates in 2003.
        Finally, my statement will address the capital investment analysis
    that would be employed by TXU to evaluate the emission reductions
    proposed in the Clear Skies Act legislation, where mercury controls are
    expected to be the key planning issue. Currently, there is no
    commercially demonstrated control technology for mercury and the
    technologies used in pilot projects have achieved inconsistent results
    at extreme expense, especially for lignite. Because meeting the Clear
    Skies Act SO2 and NOx limits will require significant
    capital investment by electric generators, adding a requirement for
    unproven and expensive mercury control technology could result in very
    costly fuel switching by coal-fired plants. Fuel switching would
    contribute to price spikes in the natural gas market that would impact
    not only the electric generator sector, but also consumers and many
    industries that use natural gas as a raw material or feedstock. The
    Phase I mercury emission reduction contained in the bill needs to be
    set at the SO2 and NOx ``co-benefits'' level, which is not
    expected to result in significant fuel switching by electricity
    generators.
        Even if the Phase I mercury emission reduction contained in the
    bill is revised and set at the SO2 and NOx ``co-benefits''
    level, meeting the Phase II mercury level of 15 tons in the year 2018
    is wholly a bet on future technology. Such uncertainty presents
    significant investment capital planning problems for electric
    generators, and may very well overwhelm an electric generator's capital
    investment analysis for the Phase I SO2 and NOx limits.
    Moreover, the mercury emission controls would not significantly reduce
    global loading of mercury--the Environmental Protection Agency has
    stated that U.S. electric generators comprise less than 1 percent of
    the global mercury emissions.

    General Approach To Capital Investment Decisionmaking For Emission
            Controls
        By way of background, TXU is a major energy company with operations
    in North America and Australia. TXU manages a diverse energy portfolio
    with a strategic mix of over $30 billion of assets.
        In its primary market of Texas, TXU's portfolio includes 19,000
    megawatts of generation with a fuel mix of coal/lignite, natural gas/
    oil, nuclear power and wind. TXU serves five million customers in North
    America and Australia, including 2.7 million competitive electric
    customers in Texas where it is the leading energy retailer.
        TXU's commitment to environmental excellence is well-demonstrated.
    The Company is one of the nation's largest coal/lignite generators, yet
    TXU's SO2 emission rate in 2001 was 21 percent below the
    national average (52 electric generation companies had higher
    SO2 emission rates than TXU in 2000). Similarly, while TXU
    is the 8th-largest generator of electricity in the Nation, the
    Company's NOx emission rate in 2001 was 18 percent below the national
    average (61 electric generation companies had higher NOx emission rates
    than TXU in 2000). Additionally, TXU's CO2 emission rate in
    2001 was 8 percent below the national average and TXU has implemented
    the largest voluntary greenhouse gas reduction program among all the
    investor-owned electric generation companies in the United States.
        The first step in an electric generator's capital investment
    analysis for emission controls is to identify all viable alternate
    investment scenarios for compliance with a new emissions standard.
    During this step of the investment analysis, the alternate investment
    scenarios can range from:
          Attempting a smaller level of capital investment for
    emissions control technologies at a power plant--but typically a
    smaller investment in control technologies results in a significant
    loss of electricity production capacity at the power plant;
          Committing to significant levels of capital investment
    for emissions control technologies in order to achieve the least
    possible loss of electricity production capacity at the plant;
          Fuel switching at a power plant; or
          Closing down a power plant, losing all the generating
    capacity at that power plant but avoiding new capital investment.
        Next, the company will calculate the total economic cost of each
    alternative over the lifetime of the power plant, taking into account
    any income associated with each alternative. This is a detailed net
    present-value analysis that, among other things, requires accurate
    information on the operational costs of a particular control technology
    and its performance in reducing emissions over the remaining life of
    each power plant. Specifically, this long-term economic cost analysis
    of each alternate investment scenario will focus on:

          The amount of capital investment needed up-front and
    known to be needed in the future;
          The operating expenses associated with the current
    capital investment and known future capital investment;
          The overall operating expenses of a power plant under the
    alternative investment scenario (this might include the purchase of
    emissions credits);
          Whether the alternative investment scenario has operating
    restrictions that would reduce the production of electricity (and thus
    reduce income);
          The potential income, if any, from the alternative
    investment scenario (this might include the sales of emissions credits
    or byproducts generated by the emissions control equipment).

        Armed with the net present value figures, and the pro-forma
    financial statements related to the net present values, the company
    will evaluate the financial impacts of each alternate investment
    scenario against any potential financial constraints faced by the
    company, such as borrowing limits, debt covenants, or limits on
    financial ratios. From this process, the company will select a viable
    alternative investment scenario with the highest overall economic
    value.

    Capital Investment Decisions Relating To Existing SO2 and
            NOx Requirements
        It may be helpful to review briefly TXU's capital investment
    decisionmaking process for SO2 requirements under the Clean
    Air Act's acid rain program, and for NOx reductions required under
    Texas State law. Both of these capital investment decisionmaking
    processes used the general framework discussed earlier, but each also
    had unique factors that shaped the analysis. Critical to both types of
    evaluation, however, was the availability of accurate information on
    the costs and effectiveness of the available options for emissions
    control equipment.
        For example, under the Federal acid rain program, SO2
    reductions were achieved by a two-phased national cap without
    additional mandatory plant-by-plant restrictions. Accordingly, TXU and
    other affected electric generators could assess decisions over their
    entire fleet of power plants, choosing investments and controlling
    those plants where emissions reductions made the most economic sense.
    For its capital investment analysis, TXU developed alternate investment
    scenarios using options available throughout its entire portfolio of
    lignite/coal fueled units while maintaining compliance with local
    SO2 emissions limits.
        The primary control technology used to achieve significant
    reduction of SO2 emissions is called a ``scrubber.'' To a
    lesser extent, fuel switching to a low sulfur subbituminous coal can
    also reduce SO2 emissions. In its analysis of SO2
    control equipment investment options, TXU found a wide, plant-by-plant
    variation in the cost of scrubbers, mainly due to different plant
    designs. Variations in cost were dependent on factors such as existing
    control equipment and available space in the plant configuration for
    installation of a new scrubber. In certain instances, elaborate plant
    modifications would be required to withstand the impact of increased
    scrubbing. Installation deadlines also significantly impact the cost of
    installation. Other key drivers in TXU's analysis were the operating
    costs of the scrubbers, and whether the scrubbers could be expected to
    perform at planned removal rates for the life of the facility.
        TXU's decisionmaking process for compliance with the acid rain
    program was enhanced by our knowledge of well-tested scrubber
    technology, coupled with accurate information on the annual operational
    costs for such equipment. Using this information, TXU could develop
    precise alternate investment scenarios and compare the scenarios to
    other compliance strategies, such as purchase of emission credits in
    the open market.
        There are nine coal-fired units in the TXU fleet, five of which are
    scrubbed, accounting for 61 percent of our coal-fired generation. The
    cost estimate for installing scrubbers at the four remaining coal-fired
    units is approximately $400 million.
        In contrast to TXU's experience with the acid rain program, the NOx
    controls required to meet Texas' State NOx limits involved a much more
    complex analysis of alternate investment scenarios. Under a Texas State
    law adopted in 1999, electric generators in Texas were required by May,
    2003 to achieve a 50 percent reduction in NOx emissions from certain of
    its plants, as compared to 1997 emissions. TXU and other generators
    also faced deadlines for achieving other NOx reduction targets in
    various Texas regions to meet the State Implementation Plan
    requirements under the Clean Air Act. Additionally, TXU was required to
    achieve a 25 percent reduction in SO2 emissions from certain
    of its plants. TXU achieved all those NOx and SO2
    reductions, plus more, ahead of schedule. Accordingly, TXU's experience
    in developing a capital investment plan to meet the Texas NOx limits
    may be instructive as to what electric generators would face under the
    Clear Skies Act.
        Generally, two factors increased the complexity of TXU's capital
    investment analysis relating to the Texas NOx requirements:

          First, in contrast to the SO2 scrubber
    analysis, there were many different NOx technologies that could
    potentially achieve reductions at each power plant. This probably holds
    true for the NOx emission limitations contained in the Clear Skies Act
    as well.
          Second, rather than fleet-wide emission limit (as in the
    SO2 example), TXU was required to comply with no less than
    five different localized or regional NOx limits for its power plants.

        This increase in the number of variables complicated the
    alternative investment analysis. Additionally, localized and multiple
    regional NOx limits degrade the market for NOx emission allowances,
    reducing the ability of the NOx emission allowance market to reduce
    overall compliance costs.
        TXU will spend approximately $230 million to complete the NOx
    retrofits required in order to comply with State regulations, through
    2005.
        Although somewhat more complicated than the SO2 acid
    rain program alternative investment analysis, the analysis of TXU's NOx
    alternative investment scenarios was again aided by our knowledge of
    well-tested, proven removal technologies and accurate information on
    the annual operational costs for such equipment. Under the Federal acid
    rain program and the Texas State NOx limits, TXU has committed hundreds
    of millions of dollars for capital investment in control technologies.
    However, the company made that commitment after an extensive economic
    analysis, with relative certainty of the reductions it expected to
    achieve.

    Potential Additional Capital Investment Under The Clear Skies Act
        TXU supports a three pollutant framework such as that used in the
    Clear Skies Act. However, if the Clear Skies Act is to avoid harmful
    fuel-switching, the Clear Skies legislation should not mandate controls
    on carbon emissions and must base Phase I mercury limits on ``co-
    benefits'' (i.e., that level of mercury emission reduction that results
    from meeting SO2 and NOx emission limitations). Only under
    these conditions can the Clear Skies Act meet the goal of promoting
    long-term planning certainty for the electric generator sector and
    achieving significant reductions in emissions of NOx, SO2
    and mercury.
        As introduced, the Clear Skies Act contains the following schedule
    for reductions in SO2, NOx and mercury emissions:
        The Clear Skies Act contains major reductions in SO2 and
    NOx emissions when compared to today's emission levels. Achieving these
    reductions will require an unprecedented number of state-of-the-art
    emission controls. With the significantly increased number of emission
    controls being installed, an electric generator's capital investment
    analysis must now also include dealing with limitations on the amount
    of emission control equipment that can be installed at any one time,
    based on system reliability requirements for the availability of power
    plants, as well as the shortage of trained professionals that perform
    such installations and the manufacturing capability to handle a major
    surge in orders for emission reduction equipment.
        Appropriately, the Clear Skies Act does not regulate carbon
    emissions. Carbon is not a regulated pollutant under the Clean Air Act,
    nor should it be. Presently, carbon reductions are costly and complex.
    Given these circumstances, TXU supports the voluntary carbon reduction
    goals established by the President, as well as funding additional
    research concerning carbon emission reduction technologies.
        However, the mercury provisions of the Clear Skies Act legislation
    may cause fuel switching by electric generators in order to meet
    emissions limits. Currently, there is no commercially demonstrated
    control technology for mercury. Several pilot tests have used activated
    carbon injection technology, but much remains unknown with that
    technology and it appears to be prohibitively expensive.
        Accordingly, the Environmental Protection Agency's initial position
    was that the Clear Skies Phase I mercury limit of 26 tons in 2010 would
    not require a power plant to install mercury-specific emissions
    controls--the Phase I mercury limit could instead be met solely by the
    amount of mercury removed as a ``co-benefit'' of the SO2 and
    NOx emission controls installed under the Clear Skies Act. There is now
    considerable doubt as to whether the Phase I mercury limit can be met
    through such ``co-benefits''. If the Phase I mercury limit cannot be
    met by ``co-benefits'', power plants must in the near term install
    unproven and expensive mercury-specific emission control technology, or
    fuel switch.
        Given the already significant capital investment required of
    electric generators to meet the Clear Skies Act SO2 and NOx
    limits, the Phase I mercury emission reduction required by the bill
    should be revised and set at the SO2 and NOx ``co-benefits''
    level, as was initially suggested by the Administration. It is
    important to remember that, even if the Clear Skies Act Phase I mercury
    level is revised and set at the SO2 and NOx ``co-benefits''
    level, meeting the Phase II mercury limit of 15 tons in the year 2018
    is a bet on future technology.
        The lignite coal used by TXU and other electric generators faces
    additional hurdles with regard to mercury removal. The mercury content
    of lignite is higher than that of bituminous or subbituminous coal. In
    addition, the combination of mercury and other constituents in lignite
    coal is believed to be more difficult to remove using the pilot-tested
    activated carbon injection technology. The lack of a demonstrated
    emissions control technology could result in fuel switching for
    lignite-powered plants, if not plant closings.
        This high level of uncertainty with regard to mercury emissions
    reductions from lignite-powered coal plants requires that TXU factor
    its approach for compliance with the 2018 Phase II mercury levels into
    the planning and decisionmaking process for the Phase I SO2
    and NOx levels. That result occurs because TXU's different compliance
    options for Phase I (for example, continued use of lignite with
    scrubbers or, alternatively, fuel-switching for the SO2
    limit) may have very different implications for meeting the Phase II
    mercury levels. This decision tree is outlined at Figure 1.
        In summary, the lack of a demonstrated emissions control technology
    for mercury prevents accurate long-term planning by the electric
    generating sector. Companies have no idea of the long-term costs
    associated with mercury removal technology or the effectiveness of the
    technology once it is installed. This situation is in sharp contrast to
    the SO2 and NOx analysis discussed earlier, and
    significantly complicates the capital investment analysis.

    Conclusion
        TXU supports President Bush's efforts to reduce SO2, NOx
    and mercury emissions through a three pollutant framework such as that
    used in the Clear Skies Act. However, if the Clear Skies Act is to
    avoid harmful fuel switching, the Clear Skies legislation must base
    Phase I mercury limits on SO2 and NOx ``co-benefits'' and
    should not mandate controls on carbon emissions. The Phase II mercury
    limits beyond ``co-benefits'' need to be predicated on the existence of
    a viable, commercially available mercury emission control technology.
    Only under these conditions can the Clear Skies Act meet the goal of
    promoting long-term planning certainty for the electric generator
    sector and achieving significant reductions in emissions of NOx,
    SO2 and mercury.

                                   __________
          Statement of Jim McGinnis, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

    Introduction
        Good morning. My name is Jim McGinnis, and I am a Managing Director
    in Morgan Stanley's Investment Banking Division, with responsibilities
    in providing advice on capital raising, restructuring and mergers and
    acquisitions involving companies in the energy sector. I have focused
    my work on power and energy providers, utilities and unregulated
    competitors alike, through a 15-year period characterized by nearly
    continuous, and episodically chaotic structural change in the sector.
        My comments today will address certain of the potential effects on
    capital formation in the power industry which we expect from the
    enactment of multi-emissions technology legislation. In particular, I
    will focus my remarks on the need for and benefits of clarity in the
    context of a major capital expenditure program such as the one this
    legislation envisions. Also, I will discuss a few indicators of the
    economic health of the industry at this time, one characterized by
    companies seeking to repair balance sheets and regain investor
    confidence following a tumultuous period in the sector
        My predecessors, colleagues and I at Morgan Stanley have been very
    active in raising new capital on behalf of companies in this industry
    since the Firm's formation some seven decades ago, through sharply
    different market environments and economic cycles.
        I believe that we institutionally understand the challenges faced
    by our industry clients today in competing for investor capital through
    new issues and consistently providing a competitive return on such
    capital to ensure access to capital for future projects. But today,
    just as in past decades, providing access to capital on reasonable
    terms to this industry is not just a business niche; it is a critical
    underpinning of a healthy national economy.
        The utility industry is a reasonably large user of domestic
    investor capital, with over $800 billion of institutional and
    individual investment dollars deployed in the nation's power and gas
    utility and generation sectors. Yet, despite that large number,
    investor sensitivities to cash-flows, requirements for debt repayments
    or significant new capital spending can sharply affect any individual
    company's access to capital. An event-related swell of concern in the
    market can, and has in the past 12 months, effectively cutoff capital
    access for even financially sizable companies for significant periods
    of time.
        Interruptions or limitations on capital access in our industry
    sector can have far-reaching impacts--impacts as gradual and relentless
    as forcing power-intensive industries to relocate facilities elsewhere
    in search of cheaper power; or as immediate and dramatic as rolling
    blackouts in times of supply crisis.

    The Need for Clarity
        Our focus on multi-emissions legislation today is a particularly
    important dimension of this continuous provision of access to capital.
    I believe the various sets of actors in the industry its senior
    management, workforces, local regulators, employees, customers and
    investors generally recognize and accept the impending, reasonably
    sized investment in emissions control technologies as a necessary and
    useful expenditure.
        Indeed, we can observe that some such impending expenditures are
    expected by the market a fact made evident by the market's neutral-to-
    slightly positive response to Dominion Resources' recent announcement,
    made April 18th, of its $1.2 billion agreement with the Environmental
    Protection Agency to reduce emissions across its 24,000 MW generation
    portfolio. This agreement, achieved by a financially strong entity with
    supportive local regulatory treatment provided clear costs and benefits
    to its signors.
        In contrast, capital providers to the industry can be expected to
    react poorly to financially significant expenditures required of
    utilities and unregulated generators in the absence of clarity and
    permanence, but rather in the context of potentially shifting
    requirements, unproven technologies and uneven regulatory treatment.
    This need for clarity has heightened importance now, at a time when
    industry participants have been roiled by unprecedented financial
    disruptions and failures, and by persistent uncertainties elsewhere in
    the public policy arena. Investors and company leaders are currently
    wrestling with a variety of fundamental uncertainties: state-by-state
    changes in policies related to industry restructuring; purchased power
    contract disputes, as in California; accounting standards revisions
    related to energy purchasing, trading and hedging activities;
    uncertainty over aspects of currently pending energy legislation such
    as PUHCA reform; FERC transmission policy, transmission siting rules,
    and transmission-related tax policy on transfers in ownership; and
    certain aspects of bankruptcy code reform, just to name a few.
        Clarity as to the durability of legislative requirements is, for
    investors in the power sector, not just a modest benefit, it is a
    defining attribute. Typically, utility companies' economics depend
    predominantly on the policy decisions of State regulators, and the
    framework of regulatory decisionmaking has very significant comparative
    impacts on those companies' access to and cost of capital. To wit,
    California utilities, which, in my view, have experienced many years of
    regulatory antagonism and turmoil, exacerbated by and culminating in
    the 2001 statewide energy crisis, trade at a consistent discount to
    non-California utilities. For example, today, the average non-
    California utility enjoys a 32 percent price-to-earnings valuation
    premium to the average of the three major California investor owned
    utilities. It is in the context of such selective localized uncertainty
    that Federal policies related to large, new emissions-reduction
    expenditures must be unambiguous and durable.
        One important attribute of legislation to reduce power generator
    emissions which supports the objective of clarity is the abundance of
    market signals from freely traded emissions allowances. Allowance
    trading improves the ability of affected companies to make clear
    choices as to the most cost effective of various strategies they can
    deploy in meeting emissions-reductions targets and promotes capital
    efficiencies when capital is scarce.

    Stress in the Sector
        The basic requirement for clarity in policy decisions related to
    what one of your prior witnesses has identified as one of the largest
    private industry investment initiatives ever conceived comes at a time
    when the financial health of the industry is, at best, on the mend from
    a dramatic and troublesome financial cycle.
        Rather than recount the multiple factors and contributing exogenous
    occurrences which created the downturn in the merchant energy sector
    and its related impacts on utilities, I will focus on its current
    health and the cost-of-capital implications of that current state.
        One co-determinant of the cost of funds and access to bond
    investors for industry participants is the credit rating agency's
    public assignment of a rating to a particular issuer or a particular
    security issued by a company. In a stable industry and economic
    environment, investors might expect to see an equal number of upgrades
    to downgrades to such ratings.
        The electric sector industry is in the midst, though perhaps the
    trailing end, of the worst ever period for credit rating deterioration.
    Since January 1, 2002, we have seen 232 separate rating downgrades
    (some of multiple rating categories at one time) versus only 18 ratings
    upgrades. These downgrades are a symptom, and effect of massive
    investor losses on bonds and bank loans to companies in the sector, and
    in the merchant power generation market in particular.
        Whereas underlying US Treasury yields have improved materially and
    access to high yield or sub-investment grade bond markets has also
    improved markedly over the last 12 months, these helpful indicia should
    not obscure a central point: the industry has been systematically
    downgraded in relative risk/reward terms. This fact may well have a
    large, adverse impact on cost of and access to capital long after the
    current rally in Treasuries or junk bonds subsides.
        Also, during the 2 years ending March 31, 2003, equity losses for
    investors have been staggering as well. The collective equity market
    capitalizations of seven selected merchant power industry participants
    alone, even excluding Enron, declined by $93 Billion from 2 years
    earlier, when the same entities were capitalized by the market at $102
    billion, a staggering loss across some of the then most admired names
    in the industry.
        There are broader impacts on the power sector of the recent
    merchant power sector value destruction episode. In recent years,
    statewide restructuring in California, New York, Illinois, Texas,
    Pennsylvania, Ohio, Delaware and Washington, DC, has resulted in the
    large legacy generation portfolios of incumbent utilities to be
    transferred in those locations to unregulated power merchants, many of
    which have experienced a sharp decline in financial strength. This
    creates some potential for new counterparty exposures for electric
    distribution companies who rely on unregulated megawatt-hours to meet
    supply needs.
        Indeed, some 2/3's or more of the generation capacity sold by ConEd
    in New York City, by DQE in Pittsburgh, by Pepco in Washington, DC, by
    Commonwealth Edison and by Illinova in Illinois, is now owned by one of
    the merchant power owners caught up in the financial turmoil referred
    to above. These generation companies are rated significantly below
    investment-grade rated by the credit rating agencies and are
    experiencing limited access to new capital.
        Thus, in some cases, even those utilities whose parent companies
    did not embark upon a growth-focused expansion into unregulated
    merchant power in 2001-2002 now find a different, vexing credit issue:
    a weak counterparty on which they depend for the bulk of their reliable
    power supply. These unregulated counterparts are poorly equipped to
    absorb a large financial obligation, particularly in the context of any
    lack of clarity on the costs and benefits of such expenditures.

    Clarity Will Drive Capital Access
        In evaluating legislation to reduce power generator emissions which
    envisions one of the nation's most ambitious private industry
    investment programs ever conceived, I would submit that committee
    members examine several important market dynamics: multiple critical
    uncertainties in upcoming energy policy and regulatory decisions,
    uncertainties related to fuel cost and availability, and, generally,
    the weakened financial capacity of the industry's generation
    participants.
        In this context, moving forward with legislation that provides
    clarity, durability and an efficient means to allocate expenditure
    decisions can be an important step toward assuring that sufficient,
    well-priced capital will be available from private investors to make
    such significant future expenditures. That assurance is important both
    for the success of an emissions-control policy objective, and also for
    the health of a critical infrastructure industry in this nation's
    economy.

                                   __________
      Statement of Douglas Cogan, Deputy Director, Social Issues Service,
                    Investor Responsibility Research Center

        My name is Douglas G. Cogan. I am the Deputy Director of Social
    Issues for the Investor Responsibility Research Center. IRRC is an
    independent research firm, based in Washington, DC, that provides
    impartial information on corporate governance, social and environmental
    issues affecting investors and corporations worldwide. Founded in 1972,
    IRRC serves more than 500 institutional investors, corporations, law
    firms, universities, foundations, religious institutions and other
    organizations.
        IRRC does not take advocacy positions on public policy issues.
    Accordingly, I will not be commenting on the merits of specific clean
    air bills being considered by this committee. I will address three
    broader issues as they relate to the merits of legislation that
    includes CO2 emissions controls. These issues are:

        1. The inevitability of carbon dioxide controls.
        2. The need for more corporate disclosure and investor certainty on
    the climate change issue.
        3. The connection between climate change and good corporate
    governance practices.

    Inevitability of carbon dioxide controls
        IRRC has long served as an early warning system for the business
    and investment community. In the 1970's, IRRC published reports on the
    coming deregulation of the electric utility industry and obstacles
    facing nuclear power. In the 1980's, IRRC issued studies on the advent
    of renewable energy and utility energy efficiency programs. In 1992,
    IRRC published a book written by me on business and investment
    responses to climate change.
        Climate change is playing an increasingly important role in capital
    investment decisions, especially for the electric power industry. Our
    nation's electricity providers account for nearly 40 percent of
    America's and 10 percent of the world's manmade CO2
    emissions. Addressing global warming necessarily involves this
    industry. Companies and investors that ignore this fact do so at their
    own peril.
        The question is not whether there will be CO2 controls
    on power plant emissions, but when. Investors need more disclosure and
    guidance on this issue. Congress can help by passing legislation that
    enables utilities and investors to plan effectively for the future and
    reduce prevailing uncertainties.

    Need for more corporate disclosure and investor certainty
        Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge facing the
    electric utility industry. Yet many companies still hardly acknowledge
    the issue in their disclosure statements to investors. At best,
    companies say CO2 emissions controls could have a material
    impact on their financial condition, but cannot gauge the magnitude of
    the effect. At worst, they say virtually nothing at all.
        Investors are left to wonder whether this paucity of disclosure
    reflects a lack of guidance and foresight, or a reluctance to
    acknowledge the strategic and material risks posed by climate change.
    Neither answer is acceptable to investors.
        Electric utilities are committing tens of billions of dollars to
    upgrade their coal-fired power plants and install modern pollution
    control equipment. Yet these investments do nothing to address carbon
    dioxide emissions. The most expensive climate change response strategy
    will be to institute CO2 emissions controls after investing
    in equipment to control sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and mercury
    emissions. A more prudent and cost-effective approach would be to
    consider these four emissions sources together as part of an integrated
    strategy.
        Consider what James Rogers, Chairman and CEO of Cinergy Corp., one
    of the nation's largest coal-burning utilities, told this committee 2
    years ago. Chairman Rogers said: ``Who will make a decision to invest a
    billion dollars in a new coal plant if you can only guess about future
    regulation? [A] new power plant bill that fails to address
    CO2 will be as dated in 5 years as current law is today.''
        Investors have raised this very issue with electric utilities over
    the last 10 years through the filing of shareholder resolutions. With
    mounting support from large pension systems and endowments, shareholder
    support for these resolutions has increased dramatically. In the 2003
    annual meeting season, the average support level for climate change
    disclosure resolutions averaged almost 25 percent at three of the
    nation's largest electric utilities AEP, Southern and TXU. No other
    type of proposal in the 32-year history of shareholder activism on
    social and environmental issues has garnered this level of investor
    support. Such institutional backing is consistent with voting trends
    that IRRC is seeing across most industries on the global warming issue.
    (See Figure 1.)
        Corporate governance climate change connection
        Utilities are under pressure from many quarters to address climate
    change. States are enacting legislation to fill the policy vacuum at
    the Federal level. Overseas, the Kyoto Protocol is poised to enter into
    force, affecting U.S. utilities and other multinationals with
    operations abroad. The Bush Administration is pressing for more
    voluntary corporate commitments to control greenhouse gas emissions.
        What can utilities do to respond to these pressures? And can you do
    to help them?
        In terms of what utilities and their investors can do for
    themselves, IRRC in a soon-to-be-released report commissioned by CERES
    finds that companies can integrate climate change into good governance
    practices. Our study lists 14 specific actions. I highlight three
    vitally important ones here:

          First, companies should provide regular assessments of
    the climate change issue to shareholders, based on systematic board
    reviews of company risks and opportunities. In place of blanket
    statements in securities filings that climate change poses
    undeterminable material risks, at a minimum companies should identify
    the risk factors and parameters involved in board assessments.
          Second, companies need to set CO2 emissions
    baselines and provide annual emissions data by which investors can
    gauge prevailing emissions trends. Utilities have been reporting such
    data to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for 10 years. They
    should make this information directly available to shareholders as
    well. (Some are already doing so.)
          Most important, utilities should be making forward-
    looking disclosures of their CO2 emissions. As an industry,
    electric utilities have pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of their
    emissions by 3 to 5 percent by 2012. But actual emissions projections
    and the effects of proposed CO2 controls vary substantially
    from company to company, and such information typically is not shared
    with investors. (See the attached IRRC Proxy Issues Reports on Southern
    Company and TXU Corp. as examples.) Investors cannot begin to make
    meaningful evaluations of the potential impacts of CO2
    legislation on their portfolio holdings until they have access to such
    forward-looking information.

        Congress can facilitate this disclosure process by requiring
    utilities and other major carbon emitters to report not only past
    emissions data, but also future projections in securities filings. To
    be fully transparent in this disclosure, aggregate emissions data as
    well as emissions intensity ratios should be provided.
        The most helpful thing this Congress can do, however, is to
    establish once and for all that carbon dioxide is an emissions source
    that will be controlled. Many investors see this coming. Regardless of
    the targets and timetables, this act alone would provide essential
    guidance for investors and company directors that have put climate
    change on their corporate governance agenda.
        What has made this issue so difficult to address is a gap in
    governance decisionmaking. A CEO typically looks out only three to 5
    years when making a big capital investment, or about as long as he or
    she normally serves in office. The investment planning horizon for a
    long-lived asset like a power plant may extend up to 15 years. But the
    power plant will operate for 30 years or more. Carbon dioxide emissions
    from that power plant will stay in the atmosphere for 100 years or more
    long after the CEO and even the plant itself is retired. (See Figure
    2.)
        Institutional investors suffer the consequences of this governance
    gap. e are the ones entrusted with pension, insurance and endowment
    assets designed to span generations. These investors have a fiduciary
    duty to advance governance reforms to ensure the long-term viability of
    these assets and the economy as a whole. As our nation's elected
    representatives, you play a complementary role and are in a position to
    bridge this governance gap.
        A more detailed treatment of these issues appears in the
    forthcoming IRRC report commissioned by CERES, Climate Change and
    Corporate Governance: Making the Connection. Excerpts are attached to
    my written testimony. They include profiles of the top five carbon
    emitting investor-owned electric utilities. These profiles illustrate
    the wide divergence in board oversight and current reporting mechanisms
    used by these companies and demonstrate the need for a more concerted
    approach. Thank you for this opportunity to testify. I am happy to
    answer your questions and assist you in any way I can.

                                   __________
              IRRC Social Issues Service, 2003 Company Report--J2

                                    SUMMARY

        Resolution
        RESOLVED: That the Board of Directors report by August 2003 to
    shareholders on (a) the economic risks associated with the Company's
    past, present and future emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide,
    nitrogen oxide and mercury emissions, and the public stance of the
    company regarding efforts to reduce these emissions and (b) the
    economic benefits of committing to a substantial reduction of those
    emissions related to its current business activities (i.e., potential
    improvement in competitiveness and profitability).
        Similar resolution last year? No

    Proponents
        Benedictine Sisters Charitable Trust (200 shares), Congregation of
    the Sisters of Charity of the Incarnate Word and Congregation of the
    Holy Cross, Southern Province (70). The proponents are church groups
    affiliated with the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility.

    At Issue/New Developments
        TXU is the nation's seventh largest investor-owned electric
    utility, with more than 19,000 megawatts of generating capacity in
    Texas. Largely reliant on natural gas and coal, TXU is the 5 industry
    emitter of carbon dioxide, accounting for 3.2 percent of U.S.
    utilities' CO2 emissions in 2000, according to an
    independent benchmarking study. TXU also is a large industry emitter of
    sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides pollutants that contribute to acid
    rain, smog and human health problems. Management opposes the requested
    report as being ``unreasonably speculative with respect to any future
    emissions reductions'' of these pollutants.
        TXU is making substantial investments in pollution control
    technology to comply with the Clean Air Act. Management does not say
    what portion of its overall capital expenditures are being spent to
    meet these requirements, however. TXU notes in its 2002 Form 10-K that
    a ``significant portion'' of its generating fleet was constructed
    ``many years ago'' and ``may require significant capital expenditures''
    as well as ``periodic upgrading and improvement.'' Future government
    controls of CO2 emissions could threaten the economic
    viability of some of TXU's planned power plant retrofits.
        New developments at the company: In October 2002, TXU announced
    plans to terminate and write off its European operations. TXU's stock
    plunged on the news. The company and its managers now are defendants in
    several derivative shareholder lawsuits.

    Economic Impact on the Company
        While TXU is making large investments to meet Clean Air Act
    requirements likely totaling hundreds of millions of dollars a year
    such investments will not reduce TXU's CO2 emissions. New
    government controls on such emissions could render some of its power
    plant upgrades uneconomic. Management does not provide shareholders
    with a clear sense of how much it is spending on pollution control, nor
    does it indicate whether future CO2 emissions controls would
    have a material impact on the company. The requested report seeks more
    definitive answers to these questions.

                     I. TXU CORP. AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

        TXU Corp. is the nation's seventh largest investor-owned electric
    utility, serving 5 million electricity and gas customers in the United
    States and Australia. (TXU is working with creditors to sell its
    operations in Europe.) TXU also provides wholesale energy sales,
    merchant energy trading and risk management, energy-related services
    and telecommunications.
        TXU owns or leases 19,000 megawatts of generating capacity in
    Texas, where 2.7 million of its electricity customers are located.
    (TXU's Texas operations are subject to competition, beginning in 2002.)
    TXU also sells about 200 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually to
    1.4 million customers. TXU Australia serves about 1 million electricity
    and gas customers, and owns and operates 1,280 MW of generating
    capacity. As of Dec. 31, 2002, TXU employed 14,600 people.

                              Financial Performance
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 % change to
                                           2002         2001         2002
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Revenues (in billions $).........       10.034       10.049        (0.1)
    Net income (in millions $).......      (4,232)          655           NA
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

        2002 financial results: TXU lost $4.2 billion in 2002, and the
    company's book value was cut in half. On a per share basis, TXU's 2002
    loss was $15.23 per share, compared with earnings of $2.52 per share in
    2001. This most difficult year in the company's 121-year history
    included a decision last October to discontinue and write off its
    European operations. On Oct. 12, management announced it was cutting
    the company's common stock dividend by 80 percent, to 12.5 cents per
    share, in response to capital market concerns regarding the liquidity
    of TXU Corp. and its U.S. and Australian subsidiaries. TXU and its top
    executives now are defendants in several derivative shareholder
    lawsuits, alleging (among other things) false and misleading statements
    in company securities filings, breach of fiduciary duty, abuse of
    control, mismanagement, waste of corporate assets, and breach of the
    duties of loyalty and good faith.

                             Investment Performance
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Total returns ( percent)
          Data as of 12-31-2002       --------------------------------------
                                           1 yr         3 yr         5 yr
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    TXU Corp.........................        -58.6        -38.1        -40.8
    S&P 500 index....................        -22.1        -37.6         -2.9
    Industry group No information
     Industry description: Electric
     Utilities No. of companies in
     group: 200......................
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Source: Compustat

        Environmental expenditures and liability: TXU does not provide a
    breakdown of its expenditures for capital projects related to the
    environment, nor does it provide a projection of future such
    expenditures. In its 2002 Form 10-K, management notes that a
    ``significant portion of TXU Corp.'s facilities was constructed many
    years ago. In particular, older generating equipment, even if
    maintained in accordance with good engineering practices, may require
    significant capital expenditures to keep it operating at peak
    efficiency. This equipment is also likely to require periodic upgrading
    and improvement.''
        TXU reported a total of $996 million in capital expenditures in
    2002, down from $1.248 billion in 2001. Total capital expenditures are
    expected to be $1.1 billion in 2003, substantially all of which are for
    maintenance and organic growth of existing operations.
        Under the Clean Air Act and State electric utility restructuring
    legislation, ``grandfathered'' power plants (built before 1978) must
    achieve a 50 percent reduction in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions and a
    25 percent reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions by May 1, 2003. This
    requirement will be met through emission reductions at these facilities
    or through the purchase of credits from other permitted facilities as
    an alternative to achieve the same reductions. TXU reports in its 2002
    Form 10-K that it has obtained all of the necessary permits to meet
    these requirements, and says it can expect recovery of reasonable
    environmental improvement costs as part of the State-approved electric
    restructuring plan.
        As part of the State Implementation Plan for the Clean Air Act, TXU
    also must comply with a requirement calling for an 89 percent reduction
    in NOx emissions in the Dallas-Fort Worth ozone non-attainment area and
    a similar 51 percent reduction from power plants in East and Central
    Texas. TXU says the cost of compliance will be reduced because of the
    emission trading provisions in the rules.

    TXU and Its Environmental Affairs
        Board oversight: TXU's nine-member board of directors has seven
    standing committees. No board committee is charged with explicit
    oversight of the company's environmental affairs. The board of
    directors has not conducted a formal review of the climate change
    issue. The company has not set targets to reduce carbon dioxide or
    other greenhouse gas emissions, but says it strives to develop and
    implement workable and economically viable emissions reduction
    projects.
        Staff level: TXU employs about 150 environmental, health and safety
    professionals. The top EHS executive is Paul Plunket, Executive Vice
    President, who reports to Tom Baker, TXU Corp. Executive Vice President
    and President of TXU's Oncor energy distribution business. There is one
    reporting level between Plunket and the CEO of the company. TXU has
    conducted company-wide environmental audits since 1987; audits of major
    facilities are conducted every year. Its business units are benchmarked
    against the ISO 14001 environmental management system standard. The
    audit committee of the board of directors reviews audit results; audit
    summaries are not made pubic. TXU says environmental performance is a
    factor in the compensation of top executives, plant managers and other
    employees.
        TXU is one of three U.S. utility companies listed on the Dow Jones
    Sustainability Index. In June 2002, Innovest Strategic Value Advisors,
    Inc. recognized TXU as the fourth highest-ranking company out of 28
    utilities evaluated based on environmental risk factors, enviornmental
    management capacity and environmental opportunity factors. Innovest
    also found that TXU was below the industry average in terms of its
    exposure to a possible carbon tax relative to its stock market
    capitalization (as of Jan. 1, 2000).
        Environmental principles and reporting: TXU has issued an
    environmental report annually since 1991. (The report and its Statement
    of Environmental Principles is available in printed form and on the
    Internet at www.txucorp.com/globcit/envcom/globalreport/principles.)
    The latest report includes a brief policy statement on climate change
    and carbon savings/offsets achieved in the United States and Australia.
    The report also includes statistics on TXU's sulfur dioxide, nitrogen
    oxide and carbon dioxide emissions rates as compared to national
    electric utility averages and the company's investments in wind energy.
        Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, TXU is required to
    collect hourly emissions data on carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and
    sulfur dioxide. The power plant emissions data are recorded in a data
    base maintained by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The
    company also provides a summary of annual mercury emissions from its
    lignite/coal generating facilities on its website and annually reports
    these emissions to the EPA, which makes the information publicly
    available on the Internet in the Community Right-to-Know data base.

    TXU and Global Climate Change
        As part of its Statement of Environmental principles, TXU says it
    will ``continue to take prudent steps to voluntarily reduce our
    emissions of greenhouse gases and to promote carbon sequestration
    programs.'' It says it has set ``challenging sustainability targets in
    the medium and long term'' that include increased use of renewable
    fuels, reducing greenhouse gas emissions through more efficient
    electricity production and use, assisting carbon sequestration through
    reforestation and other technologies, and actively promoting
    conservation and load management programs. Quantitative targets have
    not been set, however.
        In its 2002 annual report, TXU says it ``supports a balanced,
    flexible, comprehensive and international approach to the global
    climate change issue.'' It does not comment on the Kyoto Protocol, an
    international agreement that seeks a 5 percent cut in industrialized
    nations' CO2 emissions below 1990 levels by 2012. In its
    2002 Form 10-K, management says, it is ``unable to predict the impact
    of the [Bush] Administration proposal or related legislation'' on
    climate change.
        Carbon dioxide emissions: As noted above, TXU reports information
    to government agencies about its CO2 emissions, but it does
    not make this information readily available to shareholders. Through
    use of Continuous Emissions Monitors on its major power plants, TXU
    reported carbon dioxide emissions equal to 66.8 million metric tons
    (MMT) in 2000. Separately, TXU told IRRC that its operations in the
    United States and Australia emitted 72.8 MMT of CO2 in 2001.
    TXU also collects data on emissions of two other greenhouse gases,
    methane and sulfur hexafluoride.
        According to an independent benchmarking study conducted by the
    Natural Resources Defense Council, TXU was the fifth largest utility
    emitter of carbon dioxide in 2000, accounting for 3.2 percent of U.S.
    utilities' CO2 emissions. That year, natural gas provided 61
    percent of its generation; coal/lignite, 28 percent; and nuclear, 11
    percent. TXU's high ranking in the benchmarking study was mainly a
    function of its large generating base, totaling more than 19,000
    megawatts of capacity. Because its main source of fuel is natural gas
    (which has a lower carbon content than coal or oil), it ranked 56th out
    of 100 utilities studied in terms of CO2 emissions per
    megawatt-hour (MWh) of generation, and it ranked 71st out of 100 in
    terms of CO2 emissions per MWh of generation from fossil
    energy plants. Other utilities with lower rankings (i.e., closer to 1)
    had higher CO2 emissions per unit of power produced.
        TXU reported in its 2001 environmental report that its
    CO2 emissions rate in 2000 was 11 percent below the national
    average (based on tons of CO2 emitted per million Btus of
    energy produced). Similarly, its sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides
    emissions rates were 33 and 15 percent below the national average,
    respectively. The NRDC benchmarking study reported that TXU ranked
    fifth in terms of total utility emissions of nitrogen oxides in 2000,
    and 12th in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions.
        Emissions savings: TXU has been a member of the U.S. Department of
    Energy's Climate Challenge program since 1995, and it has reported
    emissions savings under the Section 1605(b) reporting program
    established by the 1992 Energy Policy Act. TXU reported savings/offsets
    of 23 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2001 and a
    total of 196 MMT of savings since 1991 more than any other U.S.
    investor-owned electric utility. TXU says its CO2 emissions
    would have been 28 percent higher in 2001 were it not for savings and
    offsets achieved since 1990.
        Most of TXU's savings are from operation of its Comanche Peak
    nuclear units, which came on line in the early 1990's. The Energy
    Policy Act allows utilities to count as savings any new generation from
    nuclear power plants that began operation or increased their output
    after 1990. (Comanche Peak is the only U.S. investor-owned nuclear
    plant completed after 1990.) Other sources of TXU's emissions savings
    include heat rate improvements in its fossil energy plants, demand-side
    management programs, methane recovery, sulfur hexafluoride reduction
    programs and tree planting.
        In 2001, TXU reported 527,400 tons of emissions savings through its
    demand-side management programs. The company has planted more than 20
    million trees since the early 1970's, including 1.3 million in 2002.
    TXU Australia reported savings/offsets of 230,000 tons in 2001. TXU
    Australia is expected to achieve a 16 percent reduction in its total
    greenhouse gas emissions by 2004.
        Renewable energy: TXU says it encourages ``research and development
    of more efficient, environmentally benign sources of energy and,
    whenever warranted by market opportunity, to offer customers the
    benefits of energy produced from renewable resources.'' TXU offers a
    ``green pricing'' option in each jurisdiction it serves. TXU has
    contracts for 382 megawatts of wind power in Texas, making it the
    fourth largest purchaser of wind power in the United States. It also
    has contracts for approximately 20 MW of wind power in Australia and 30
    MW of hydro and landfill gas generating capacity. TXU says it is also
    evaluating photovoltaic, solar thermal, waste-to-energy and biomass
    technologies.

                            II. PROPONENTS' POSITION

        This is the second time that shareholder proponents affiliated with
    the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility have submitted a
    global warming resolution to TXU Corp. In 1997, a resolution filed with
    its predecessor, Texas Utilities, was withdrawn. TXU was targeted again
    this year because it has been identified as one of the top five carbon-
    emitting investor-owned electric utilities. The proponents met TXU's
    corporate secretary and members of the company's environmental staff in
    March 2003. Though the discussions were amiable, the proponents elected
    not to withdraw the resolution on the basis that TXU was not willing to
    provide sufficient forward-looking information on the climate change
    issue.
        The resolved clause of the resolution has two elements. It asks the
    company's board of directors to report on:
        (a) the economic risks associated with the Company's past, present
    and future emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide
    and mercury emissions, and the public stance of the company regarding
    efforts to reduce these emissions and (b) the economic benefits of
    committing to a substantial reduction of those emissions related to its
    current business activities (i.e., potential improvement in
    competitiveness and profitability).
        In a presentation by Ceres, a coalition working closely with the
    Interfaith Center on the 2003 shareholder campaign, arguments made in
    favor of the global warming resolution filed with electric utilities
    are as follows:
        1. Health and environmental risks from pollutants: Electric
    utilities account for two-thirds of the nation's sulfur dioxide
    emissions, one-third of its mercury emissions and nearly one-quarter of
    its nitrogen oxides emissions. These pollutants contribute to asthma,
    lung and heart disease and mercury bioaccumulation in humans, and cause
    extensive damage to the environment, including acid rain, smog and
    mercury bioaccumulation in fish and other species. At the same time,
    electric utilities account for 37 percent of the nation's carbon
    dioxide emissions, the main gas tied to global warming.
        2. Government regulation of these pollutants: Emissions of sulfur
    dioxide and nitrogen oxides are regulated under the Clean Air Act. This
    Federal law will require substantial additional reductions of these
    emissions as well as mercury in the years ahead. Utilities will have to
    make major new investments in pollution control technology, but this
    technology will not control carbon dioxide emissions.
        3. Risks of not factoring in carbon dioxide controls: The
    proponents believe domestic regulatory controls of CO2 are
    inevitable. Two States (New Hampshire and Massachusetts) have already
    passed laws restricting utility emissions of CO2, and
    Federal legislation has been introduced as well. At the international
    level, the Kyoto Protocol is likely to go into effect this year
    (although the Bush Administration has pulled the United States out of
    the agreement).
        According to studies cited by the proponents, the most expensive
    choice utilities could make is to retrofit existing fossil energy
    plants with new pollution control equipment and then have to reduce
    CO2 emissions from these plants. The proponents argue that
    utilities should factor future CO2 controls into their
    investment strategies now, since it could alter decisions about which
    power plants to retrofit with new pollution control equipment and which
    to replace with new, cleaner energy sources.
        4. Need for greater disclosure by utilities: By some estimates
    cited by the proponents, many electric utilities face a ``carbon
    exposure'' of between 10 and 35 percent of their total market
    capitalization. (In other words, the cost of achieving carbon dioxide
    emission controls as specified by the Kyoto Protocol equals 10 to 35
    percent of the current value of their stock.) Many factors go into
    making this calculation, including a utility's generating assets, fuel
    mix, installed pollution control technologies and whether it is
    competing in a deregulated electricity market. ``Investors cannot
    assess this risk without more disclosure'' from utilities, according to
    Ceres.
        That is why the proposal calls on management to conduct a thorough
    economic assessment of the risks and benefits of achieving substantial
    emissions reductions of the four pollutants listed in the proposal.
    ``We believe that taking early action on reducing emissions and
    preparing for standards could better position companies over their
    peers, including being first to market with new high-efficiency and
    low-emission technologies,'' the proponents argue. ``Changing consumer
    preferences, particularly those relating to clean energy, should also
    be considered. Inaction and opposition to emissions control efforts
    could expose companies to reputation and brand damage, and regulatory
    and litigation risk,'' it concludes.

                           III. MANAGEMENT'S POSITION

        Management opposes the resolution seeking more disclosure on the
    company's efforts to address climate change. It argues that the
    resolution would duplicate company reporting activities, increase costs
    and ``require unreasonable speculation with respect to the economic
    risks and benefits of emissions and future emission reductions.''
        Management says it complies with government requirements to monitor
    and annually report to the Environmental Protection Agency emissions of
    carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and mercury. The public
    can gain access to this information through government Internet sites.
        TXU also publishes an annual environmental report that includes
    information comparing its sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and carbon
    dioxide emissions rates to national electric utility averages. The
    report also highlights its voluntary reductions in carbon dioxide
    emissions and other greenhouse gases and its investments in wind
    energy. Management says its ``public stance regarding efforts to reduce
    these emissions is embodied in its Statement of Environmental
    Principles and is summarized in the company's annual environmental
    report.''
        Management says additional information on the environmental risks
    associated with emissions is available in public reports filed with the
    Securities and Exchange Commission. ``The reports address capital
    construction costs for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions
    control equipment necessary under current regulations, certain material
    risks associated with environmental compliance, and certain legislative
    and regulatory initiatives that may, in the Company's determination,
    materially impact its operations,'' according to the proxy statement.
        Finally, in response to the proponents' request for more
    information on the economic risks and benefits of future emissions
    controls and efforts to reduce these emissions, management says it
    ``cannot accurately predict the outcome of future Federal or State
    legislative actions to regulate emissions'' and that the requested
    report would be ``unduly speculative.''

                               IV. IRRC ANALYSIS

    SmartVoter Guidelines
        Voting guidelines for this resolution are presented under issue
    number 3425 in IRRC's SmartVoter product.
    Questions Raised
          Is TXU reporting adequately on the global warming issue?
          Could TXU do more to respond to this issue?
        Adequacy of reporting: The proponents believe that management
    should provide shareholders with more information on the company's
    response to global warming. In particular, the proponents want
    management to lay out the costs and benefits of reducing greenhouse gas
    emissions as it invests in other pollution controls at its fossil-fired
    generating facilities. Management says it is already making information
    on its emissions publicly available and that the additional information
    requested by the proponents would be ``unduly speculative.''
        Management can legitimately say that it is providing some
    information to shareholders on this issue:
          Disclosure: It makes reference to the global warming
    issue in its 2002 annual report and Form 10-K.
          Emissions: Its 2001 environmental report provides
    comparative statistical information on its emissions of carbon dioxide,
    sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, and its efforts to reduce these
    emissions.
          Data bases: Its proxy statement cites government data
    bases where shareholders can find more detailed information on the
    company's emissions.
        Shareholders who wish to conduct more than a cursory analysis of
    the company's response to global warming and its exposure to risks from
    controlling emissions may find management's level of disclosure
    inadequate, however. Here are some examples:
          Disclosure: Management says in its 2002 annual report
    that it ``supports a balanced, flexible, comprehensive and
    international approach to the global climate change issue.'' But it
    does not make any mention of the Kyoto Protocol, the pending
    international agreement to address climate change, or indicate whether
    the company has any targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The
    Form 10-K statement also sheds little light on these questions. It says
    only that management is ``unable to predict the impact of the [Bush]
    Administration proposal or related legislation'' on climate change.
          Emissions: Management says in its environmental report
    that its emissions of CO2, SO2 and NOx are below
    the national average per unit of electricity produced. But it does not
    provide absolute emissions figures, which reveal the company to be one
    of the nation's largest emitters of each of these substances. Among
    U.S. electric utilities in 2000, TXU ranked fifth in CO2 and
    NOx emissions, and 12th in SO2 emissions.
          Data bases: Management makes reference to government data
    bases where its aggregate emissions figures can be found. It says in
    its 2003 proxy statement that such data bases demonstrate the company's
    ``support for, and progress toward, voluntary reductions of greenhouse
    gas emissions.'' But management does not provide links or Internet
    addresses to these government sites, which would assist interested
    parties in tracking down this information. Moreover, management does
    not explain why it omits aggregate emissions figures in its own reports
    to shareholders and instead normalizes the data based on electricity
    production. Providing aggregate data would enable shareholders to
    better scrutinize management's claims of progress toward absolute
    emissions reductions.
          Financial implications of regulatory controls: Finally,
    management provides very little information to shareholders about its
    capital expenditures related to environmental protection. It provides
    figures for recent and projected total capital expenditures for the
    company. It also notes that many of its power plants have had to obtain
    permits to come into compliance with new Clean Air Act standards. But
    it does not break out how much of its capital expenditures are being
    used for such environmental purposes. Separately in its Form 10-K,
    management warns that a ``significant portion of TXU Corp.'s facilities
    was constructed many years ago'' and that these facilities ``may
    require significant capital expenditures'' as well as ``periodic
    upgrading and improvement.'' But it attaches no dollar figures to such
    warnings. Shareholders are left to ponder whether these expenditures
    may be material to the company's operations and future financial
    condition.
        Could TXU be doing more to respond to this issue? From the
    preceding discussion, it is clear that TXU could be doing more to
    enlighten shareholders about the risks and opportunities posed by
    efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
          Disclosure: Management could state in its annual report
    whether or not it believes the Kyoto Protocol reflects a ``balanced,
    flexible, comprehensive and international approach'' to the global
    climate change issue. It could list in its Form 10-K examples of issues
    and uncertainties that render it ``unable to predict the impact'' of
    climate change proposals, and provide at least a broad outline of the
    possible magnitude of such impacts.
          Emissions and data bases: Management could provide links
    or website information to government data bases to which it submits
    aggregate emissions data. Better still, it could provide this
    information in its own company reports. Best of all, it could provide
    historic and projected emissions data so that shareholders can judge
    for themselves how well the company is doing in ``support for, and
    progress toward, voluntary reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.''
          Financial implications of regulatory controls: Management
    could provide a breakdown of its capital expenditures related to
    environmental protection as most other companies do in their Form 10-K
    reports. In particular, management could provide information on its
    past investments and future projections to keep its fossil energy
    plants in compliance with the Clean Air Act. In order to satisfy the
    proponents' request regarding the effects of cutting greenhouse gas
    emissions, management also could give some indication of how efforts to
    achieve the goals of the Kyoto Protocol or comparable U.S. legislation
    might affect its investments in retrofitting and upgrading its older
    plants.
        In the final analysis, shareholders who believe the global warming
    issue does not yet pose a major policy and financial concern for TXU or
    who agree with management that further statements on the issue would be
    ``unduly speculative'' will be inclined to vote against this proposal.
    Shareholders who believe the issue does pose concerns despite the
    legislative uncertainties that remain will be inclined to vote for the
    proposal. This latter group of shareholders may conclude, in fact, that
    the uncertain financial consequences of still-evolving response
    strategies to climate change makes the issuance of a forward-looking
    report all the more valuable.

                                     ______

                    EXCERPT FROM TXU CORP.'S PROXY STATEMENT
            Shareholder Proposal Related To An Environmental Report:
                         ``electric utility resolution

        WHEREAS:
        In 2001 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded
    that ``there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
    observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.''
        In 2001 the National Academy of Sciences stated that the ``degree
    of confidence in the IPCC assessment is higher today than it was 10, or
    even 5 years ago there is general agreement that the observed warming
    is real and particularly strong within the past 20 years.''
        The United States government's ``Climate Action Report 2002,''
    concluded that global climate change may harm the country. The report
    highlights risks to coastal communities in the Southeast due to sea
    level rise, water shortages throughout the West, and increases in the
    heat index and frequency of heat waves.
        In July 2002, 11 Attorneys General wrote President Bush, outlining
    their concern over the U.S. Climate Action Report's failure to
    recommend mandatory reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. They
    declared that States are being forced to fill the Federal regulatory
    void through State-by-State regulation and litigation, increasing the
    ultimate costs of addressing climate change. They urged a
    reconsideration of his regulatory position, and adoption of a
    ``comprehensive policy that will protect both our citizens and our
    economy.''
        U.S. power plants are responsible for about two-thirds of the
    country's sulfur dioxide emissions, one-quarter of its nitrogen oxides
    emissions, one-third of its mercury emissions, approximately 40 percent
    of its carbon dioxide emissions, and 10 percent of global carbon
    dioxide emissions.
        Scientific studies show that air pollution from U.S. power plants
    causes tens of thousands of premature deaths and hospitalizations,
    hundreds of thousands of asthma attacks, and several million lost
    workdays nationwide every year from pollution-related ailments.
        Standards for carbon dioxide emissions and other air pollutants are
    emerging across multiple fronts. Ninety-six countries have ratified the
    Kyoto Protocol, requiring carbon dioxide reductions. Massachusetts and
    New Hampshire have enacted legislation capping power plants emissions
    of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants. In June 2002 the Senate
    Environment and Public Works Committee passed a bill seeking to cap
    emissions from the generation of electric and thermal energy.
        We believe that taking early action on reducing emissions and
    preparing for standards could better position companies over their
    peers, including being first to market with new high-efficiency and
    low-emission technologies. Changing consumer preferences, particularly
    those relating to clean energy, should also be considered.
        Inaction and opposition to emissions control efforts could expose
    companies to reputation and brand damage, and regulatory and litigation
    risk.
        RESOLVED: That the Board of Directors report (at reasonable cost
    and omitting proprietary information) by August 2003 to shareholders on
    (a) the economic risks associated with the Company's past, present and
    future emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and
    mercury emissions, and the public stance of the company regarding
    efforts to reduce these emissions and
        (b) the economic benefits of committing to a substantial reduction
    of those emissions related to its current business activities (i.e.
    potential improvement in competitiveness and profitability).''
        The Board of Directors recommends a vote AGAINST this proposal for
    the following reasons:
        The Company believes that adoption of the shareholder proposal
    would unnecessarily duplicate ongoing Company reporting activities,
    would needlessly increase costs and require unreasonable speculation
    with respect to the economic risks and benefits of emissions and future
    emission reductions.
        The Company routinely reports to regulatory agencies and the public
    regarding significant environmental matters. Since 1991, the Company
    has voluntarily published an annual environmental report, available in
    printed form and on the Internet, which sets forth its Statement of
    Environmental Principles and presents statistics on the Company's
    sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions rates as compared to
    national electric utility averages, voluntary reductions in greenhouse
    gas emissions (including carbon dioxide), and investments in zero-
    emission wind energy.
        The Company also annually reports emissions of sulfur dioxide,
    nitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide, which are continuously monitored at
    the generating facilities as required by law, to the State and Federal
    environmental agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection
    Agency (EPA), which makes this information publicly available through
    the Emissions Scorecard data base on the Internet.
        The Company also provides a summary of annual mercury emissions
    from its lignite/coal generating facilities on its web page and
    annually reports these emissions to the EPA, which makes the
    information publicly available on the Internet in the Community Right-
    to-Know data base.
        The Company's public stance regarding efforts to reduce these
    emissions is embodied in its Statement of Environmental Principles and
    is further reflected in its record of compliance with State and Federal
    sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions requirements and
    reductions, which is summarized in the Company's annual environmental
    report. The Company's public support for, and progress toward,
    voluntary reductions of greenhouse gas emissions (including carbon
    dioxide) is reported annually to the U.S. Department of Energy, which
    makes the information available in the Public Use Data base on the
    Internet.
        The Company routinely discloses the economic risks associated with
    emissions in its public reports filed with the Securities and Exchange
    Commission. The reports address capital construction costs for sulfur
    dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions control equipment necessary under
    current regulations, certain material risks associated with
    environmental compliance, and certain legislative and regulatory
    initiatives that may, in the Company's determination, materially impact
    its operations.
        In its normal course of business, the Company evaluates possible
    additional emissions reductions beyond those required by State and
    Federal regulations. The Company believes that a more detailed report
    on the economic risks and benefits of emissions and emissions
    reductions would be unreasonably speculative with respect to any future
    emissions reductions. For example, the Company cannot accurately
    predict the outcome of future Federal or State legislative actions to
    regulate emissions.
        In summary, adoption of the shareholder proposal would
    unnecessarily increase costs and duplicate ongoing Company reporting
    activities.
        The Board of Directors Recommends a Vote AGAINST This Shareholder
    Proposal.
                                     ______

                      [Social Issues Service, May 6, 2003]
                          IRRC, 2003 Company Report J2
                                  Southern Co.
        Global Climate Change
                                (by Doug Cogan)
        2003 Investor Responsibility Research Center
        Proxy Statement Proposal Related IRRC report 1. Elect directors CG
    Proxy Report 2. Ratify amendment of by-laws permitting book-entry of
    shares CG Proxy Report 3. SP-Report on greenhouse gas emissions SI
    Background Rpt. J2

                                    Summary

    Resolution
        RESOLVED: That the Board of Directors report by August 2003 to
    shareholders on (a) the economic risks associated with the Company's
    past, present and future emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide,
    nitrogen oxide and mercury emissions, and the public stance of the
    company regarding efforts to reduce these emissions and (b) the
    economic benefits of committing to a substantial reduction of those
    emissions related to its current business activities (i.e., potential
    improvement in competitiveness and profitability).
        Similar resolution last year? No
        Shareholder proposals asking Southern to report on the costs and
    liabilities of climate change were filed and withdrawn in 1997, 1999
    and 2002. A proposal on developing renewable energy was supported by
    9.5 percent of shares voted in 2001 and 9.2 percent in 2002.
    Proponents
        Sisters of Charity of St. Elizabeth (100 shares); United Church
    Foundation (23,400 shares); Sisters of St. Dominic, Caldwell, N. J.
    (100 shares); affiliated with the Interfaith Center on Corporate
    Responsibility.
    At Issue/New Developments
        Southern Company is the nation's second largest electric utility,
    with 37,000 megawatts of generating capacity. Coal represents about
    two-thirds of Southern's fuel mix, making it the 2 industry emitter of
    carbon dioxide, accounting for 6.4 percent of U.S. utilities'
    CO2 emissions in 2000, according to an independent study. It
    is also the 2 industry emitter of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and
    mercury. Southern plans to spend more than $1 billion by 2004 for
    nitrogen oxides emissions controls at its coal-fired plants. It expects
    to spend an additional $4 billion or more by 2015 to further reduce
    emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and mercury. Government
    efforts to control CO2 emissions could call into question
    the economic feasibility of some of these pollution control efforts.
    Southern has provided projections of its power generation and emissions
    through 2020. It estimates that its power generation will increase 45
    percent between 2000 and 2020 and that its CO2 emissions
    will increase 16 percent. Management says it is focused on ``addressing
    emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2.''
    Economic Impact on the Company
        Because electricity generation accounts for nearly two-fifths of
    the nation's CO2 emissions, the principal greenhouse gas,
    imposition of new government controls on CO2 could
    compromise the future value of Southern's planned investments in
    pollution control equipment at many of its coal-fired power plants.
    Southern says in its Form 10-K report that the ``cost impacts of such
    [CO2] legislation would depend upon the specific
    requirements enacted.'' The requested report asks management to provide
    a more detailed explanation of the costs and benefits of the company's
    pollution control strategy, given that there may be material risks to
    the company and its shareholders if that strategy fails to properly
    anticipate possible future CO2 emissions controls.

                 I. SOUTHERN CO. AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS

        Southern Company is the nation's second largest electric utility,
    serving 4 million customers in Georgia, Alabama, Florida and
    Mississippi, with 27,000 miles of transmission lines. Its regulated
    utility companies Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Gulf Power, Mississippi
    Power and Savannah Electric provide nearly 90 percent of earnings. The
    remaining portion of Southern's business activities includes wholesale
    power generation, a competitive retail natural gas business, energy-
    related products and services, fiber optics and wireless
    communications, and leveraged leasing activities. Southern employed
    26,178 people as of Dec. 31, 2002.
        Southern had 34,739 megawatts of owned and leased generating
    capacity in its retail system at the end of 2002. Southern Power, its
    electric wholesale generation subsidiary, had 1,612 MW of natural gas-
    fired generating capacity in commercial operation. Southern Power
    expects to have a total of 6,600 MW on-line by the end of 2005.
    Southern's generation sources in 2002 were coal, 69 percent; nuclear,
    16 percent; natural gas, 12 percent; and hydro, 3 percent. Average fuel
    costs in 2002 were 1.61 cents per kilowatt-hour. Southern's retail
    electric rates are 15 percent below the national average.

                              Financial Performance
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 % change to
                                           2002         2001         2002
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Revenues (in billions $).........       10.549       10.155          3.9
    Net income (in millions $).......        1,318        1,262          4.4
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

        2002 financial results: Southern says its financial performance in
    2002 was ``very strong and one of the best in the electric utility
    industry.'' Net income of $1.318 billion from continuing operations
    increased 17.6 percent over income from continuing operations reported
    in 2001. Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations in 2002
    were $1.85 per share, up from $1.61 in 2001. Dividends paid per share
    on common stock in 2002 were $1.355, up from $1.34 in 2001. The company
    had an average of 708 million shares of common stock outstanding in
    2002, an increase of 2.7 percent.
        Future construction and environmental expenditures: Southern
    provides projections for construction expenditures, including
    environmental capital expenditures, over the next 3 years. Its
    projected construction expenditures are as follows: $2.075 billion in
    2003, $2.308 billion in 2004 and $2.354 billion in 2005. Its projected
    environmental capital expenditures are $257 million in 2003, $300
    million in 2004 and $346 million in 2005. Southern forecasts
    electricity demand growth of 3.5 percent a year, and customer growth of
    1.5 percent a year.

                             Investment Performance

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Total returns (percent)
          Data as of 12-31-2002       --------------------------------------
                                           1 yr         3 yr         5 yr
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Southern Co......................         17.6        123.8        124.9
    S&P 500 index....................        -22.1        -37.6         -2.9
    Industry group...................      No data
    Industry description: Electric
     Utilities No. of companies in
     group: 200......................
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Source: Compustat

    Southern and Its Environmental Affairs
        Board oversight: Southern's 10-member board of directors has five
    standing committees. No board committee is charged with explicit
    oversight of the company's environmental affairs. The audit committee
    is responsible for reviewing environmental compliance audits along with
    other regulatory matters affecting the company. The entire board
    receives updates on environmental management issues periodically. The
    2003 proxy statement makes no reference to environmental issues
    discussed by the board of directors.
        The board of directors has not conducted a formal review of the
    climate change issue. The company has not set targets to reduce carbon
    dioxide or other greenhouse gas emissions, but says it is considering
    them. It has provided projections of carbon dioxide emissions out to
    the year 2020.
        Staff level: Southern employs about 250 environmental, health and
    safety professionals at the corporate level. The top EHS executive is
    Dr. Charles H. Goodman, Senior Vice President, Research and
    Environmental Affairs. Goodman reports to Paul Bowers, President,
    Southern Co. Generation and Energy Marketing; and Dwight Evans,
    President of External Affairs. There is one reporting level between
    Goodman and the CEO of the company. Southern says environmental
    performance is a factor in the compensation of top executives, plant
    managers and other EHS employees.
        Southern has conducted company-wide environmental audits since
    1992. Audits of major facilities are conducted every one to 2 years,
    and are conducted by corporate and facility staff. The audit committee
    of the board of directors reviews audit results. Audit summaries are
    not made public.
        Environmental principles and reporting: Southern issued its first
    environmental policy statement in 1992 and its first environmental
    report in 1993; it has issued the environmental report periodically
    since then. The report includes a climate change policy statement,
    summary of greenhouse gas reduction efforts and a projection of future
    emissions trends.
        Southern's most recent statement on climate change was issued in
    August 2000. Among other things, the policy statement says:
          Climate change is global and long-term in nature.
          Policies should seek to resolve climate change scientific
    uncertainties.
          Solutions must incorporate unrestricted use of market-
    based flexibility mechanism, and consider the broadest range of sources
    as well as sinks of greenhouse gases, both domestic and international.
          Policies must protect a secure, economic and diverse
    energy supply, and promote long-term research, development and
    dissemination.
          Public and private partnerships should support
    development and commercialization of higher efficiency, lower emitting
    power generation technologies.
          Cost-effective means should be pursued to reduce, avoid
    and sequester greenhouse gas emissions.
        Southern says in the statement that it is committed to
    ``establishing and maintaining dialog with public and private interest
    groups to expand the understanding of the climate change issue and to
    enhance the development and implementation of appropriate climate
    change policy.'' The full policy statement is available at: http://
    www.southerncompany.com/planetpower.asp.
        Global Climate Coalition: Southern Company was a founding member of
    the Global Climate Coalition (GCC), which formed in 1989. For more than
    a decade, the GCC was the leading industry group opposed to mandatory
    greenhouse gas controls and U.S. adoption of the Kyoto Protocol.
    Southern was one of five companies that withdrew from the GCC in late
    1999 and early 2000. A Southern spokesman told IRRC that the company
    was concerned the GCC was ``as strident as its most strident member''
    and that Southern had decided not to align itself with other groups on
    the climate change issue.
        At the time it pulled out of the lobbying group, Southern was
    facing a global warming shareholder resolution that highlighted its
    membership in the GCC. That resolution subsequently was withdrawn. The
    GCC ended its corporate membership program in March 2000, 1 month after
    Southern left the group, and it disbanded altogether in January 2002.
    Renewable Energy Development
        Southern is not optimistic about the prospects for renewable energy
    development, especially in its service area. It says on its website
    that ``renewable energy is more expensive and sometimes dramatically so
    than power generated by fossil fuels than coal or natural gas. Even if
    costs weren't a factor, some renewable energy sources aren't available
    on a large scale in the Southeast.'' A shareholder proposal filed with
        Southern on developing renewable energy was supported by 9.5
    percent of shares voted in 2001 and 9.2 percent in 2002.
        Southern does offer an ``EarthCents green pricing'' option that
    allows customers in Alabama and Mississippi to purchase 100 watt blocks
    of renewable energy for $5-6 per month. Similar programs are awaiting
    regulatory approval in Georgia and Florida. The energy will come from a
    portfolio of sources, including landfill methane, wind and solar power.
    In addition, Southern is conducting research on biomass, solar and
    landfill methane technologies. For example, Southern is adding
    switchgrass (a biomass fuel) at two of its power plants to reduce the
    use of coal and related emissions. It has also installed a 250-kW fuel
    cell demonstration plant. Fuel cells emit less greenhouse gases
    inherently than boilers or engines that provide the same energy.
        In its 2002 Form 10-K, Southern acknowledges that commercial
    success of fuel cells and renewables would pose a competitive threat to
    the company and its shareholders. Management states:
        A key element of Southern Company's business model is that
    generating power at central power plants achieves economies of scale
    and produces power at relatively low cost. There are other technologies
    that produce power, most notably fuel cells, microturbines, windmills
    and solar cells. It is possible that advances in technology will reduce
    the cost of alternative methods of producing power to a level that is
    competitive with that of most central power station electric
    production. If this were to happen and if these technologies achieved
    economies of scale, Southern Company's market share could be eroded,
    and the value of its electric generating facilities could be reduced.
    Changes in technology could also alter the channels through which
    retail electric customers buy power, which could reduce Southern
    Company's revenues or increase expenses.

                 II. SOUTHERN CO. AND ITS POWER PLANT EMISSIONS

       Southern Company is the nation's second largest electric utility
    and the nation's second largest consumer of coal (behind American
    Electric Power). According to an independent benchmarking study
    conducted by the Natural Resources Defense Council, Southern was the
    second largest U.S. utility emitter of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide,
    nitrogen oxides and mercury in 2000. That year, Southern had 32,000
    megawatts of capacity and coal provided 76 percent of its power
    generation. With 128 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions,
    Southern accounted for 6.4 percent of U.S. utilities' CO2 emissions in
    2000, according to the NRDC study. Southern has told IRRC that it is
    considering the adoption of CO2 emissions control targets.
        To date, Southern has spent considerable sums to comply with the
    Federal Clean Air Act, which addresses sources of air pollution. It
    estimates that its construction expenditures have totaled $400 million
    to achieve significant reductions in sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide
    emissions under the first two phases of the Clean Air Act Acid Rain
    provisions. In the 1990's, Southern cut its sulfur dioxide emissions by
    40 percent and its nitrogen oxides emissions by 28 percent, even as its
    electricity generation has increased by 20 percent.
        In addition, Southern has spent $980 million to reduce nitrogen
    oxide emissions from power plants in nonattainment areas around
    Atlanta, Ga., and Birmingham, Ala., to meet a regulatory requirement
    that goes into effect in May 2003. Additional construction expenditures
    for compliance in the Georgia nonattainment area are estimated at $305
    million to achieve standards that will go into effect in May 2005.
    Altogether, Southern expects to spend an additional $4 billion or more
    by 2015 to further reduce its overall emissions-not including carbon
    dioxide.
        Outlook to 2020: Unlike most utilities, Southern provides a long-
    term outlook for its power supply and projected emissions, dating to
    2020. Its key projections are as follows:
          Power generation-Southern expects its annual power
    generation to increase from 172 million megawatt-hours in 2000 to
    approximately 250 MWh in 2020, an increase of 45 percent.
          Fuel mix-Southern expects its power supplied from coal to
    decrease from 76 percent in 2000 to 38 percent in 2020; its power from
    natural gas to increase from 4 percent to 53 percent; its power from
    nuclear energy to fall from 16 percent to 6 percent; and its power from
    hydro and oil to stay at about 3 percent.
          Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions-Southern
    expects its emissions of sulfur dioxide to fall from nearly 1.5 million
    tons in 1990 to about 300,000 tons in 2020, a decrease of about 80
    percent. It expects its emissions of nitrogen oxides to fall from
    400,000 tons to about 127,000 tons, a decrease of about 68 percent.
          Carbon dioxide emissions-As a result of generation
    growth, Southern expects its carbon dioxide emissions to increase from
    128 million metric tons in 2000 to approximately 148 MMT in 2020, an
    increase of about 16 percent. It says, ``Although our current
    projections indicate a rise in the years ahead, much focus is being
    placed on how we can continue to meet the energy needs of our customers
    while addressing emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2.'' From 1990
    to 2020, Southern projects that its CO2 emissions will increase by a
    total of 45 percent.
        Carbon dioxide emissions reduction programs: Since 1991, Southern
    has avoided or offset a total of 55 million metric tons of CO2
    equivalent. It has registered these savings with the Department of
    Energy under Section 1605(b) of the 1992 Energy Policy Act. The savings
    have been achieved mainly through improved performance of three nuclear
    power plants, thereby offsetting generation and emissions from coal-
    fired units. Southern has received 20-year license extensions for two
    of its three nuclear power plants, which will extend their expected
    life of operation past 2030.
        Southern has also sequestered carbon through a reforestation
    program that has planted more than 35 million trees. Other carbon
    dioxide emissions savings include 3.6 MMT from demand-side management
    programs, 0.2 MMT from biomass co-firing in coal-fired power plants,
    0.6 MMT of CO2 equivalent from methane reductions and 0.8 MMT of CO2
    equivalent from reductions in sulfur hexafluoride, a potent greenhouse
    gas.

    Congressional Legislation
        Several major bills have been proposed in Congress to impose more
    stringent emissions limitations under the Clean Air Act. Three of these
    bills-the Bush Administration's Clear Skies Act, the Clean Power Act of
    2002 and the Clean Air Planning Act of 2002-propose to further limit
    power plant emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury.
    The latter two bills also propose to limit emissions of carbon dioxide.
    Though none of these bills was enacted into law in the last Congress,
    similar bills have been introduced in 2003.
        Carbon dioxide legislation: In addition to the Clean Power Act and
    Clean Air Planning Act of 2002, other bills have been introduced in
    Congress, including the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003, which proposes
    capping greenhouse gas emissions by 2010 and returning them to 1990
    levels by 2016. In its 2002 Form 10-K, Southern does not indicate
    whether these bills would have material impacts on the company's
    operations and financial condition. It says the cost impacts of such
    legislation would depend upon the specific requirements enacted.
        Management does say in the Form 10-K that domestic efforts to limit
    greenhouse gas emissions have been spurred by international discussions
    surrounding the Framework Convention on Climate Change and specifically
    the Kyoto Protocol, which proposes international constraints on the
    emissions of greenhouse gases. Southern is involved in a voluntary
    electric utility industry initiative in partnership with the Bush
    Administration, which does not support ratification of the Kyoto
    Protocol or other mandatory carbon dioxide reduction legislation. The
    Bush Administration's voluntary climate initiative seeks an 18 percent
    reduction by 2012 in the rate of greenhouse gas emissions relative to
    the dollar value of the U.S. economy. Electric utilities have pledged a
    3 to 5 percent reduction in the carbon intensity of their emissions by
    2012. Absolute emissions of carbon dioxide would continue to rise.
    Because this initiative is still under development, Southern says it is
    not possible to determine the effect on the company at this time.

    New Source Review and Related Lawsuits
        If Southern fails to comply with environmental laws and
    regulations, even if caused by factors beyond its control, that failure
    may result in the assessment of civil or criminal penalties and fines
    against the company. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has filed
    civil actions against Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Savannah
    Electric alleging violations of the New Source Review provisions of the
    Clean Air Act. The EPA has also issued notices of violation to Gulf
    Power and Mississippi Power. Management says in its Form 10-K that an
    ``adverse outcome in any one of these cases could require substantial
    capital expenditures that cannot be determined at this time and could
    require payment of substantial penalties,'' ranging up to $27,500 per
    day, per violation at each generating unit.
        The New Source Review provisions of the Clean Air Act address older
    power plants that do not meet the more stringent emissions control
    requirements imposed on newest plants. The provisions were meant to
    require the installation of best available pollution control technology
    on older power plants if they were overhauled and underwent major
    modifications. Questions have arisen, however, over what constitutes
    major modification and what is considered routine maintenance for these
    plants.
        In December 2002, the EPA issued final and proposed revisions to
    the New Source Review program that are intended to clarify which
    maintenance expenditures do not warrant obtaining new Clean Air Act
    permits. Several Northeastern States petitioned the District of
    Columbia Circuit Court in February 2003 for a stay of the final rules.
    The stay was not granted. The proposed rules were open to public
    comment and may be revised before being finalized by the EPA. Any final
    regulations must be adopted by the States in the company's service area
    in order to apply to its facilities. Management says it cannot
    determine the effect of these proposed and final rules concerning the
    New Source Review at this time.
        Lawsuits: In November 1999, the EPA began a civil action against
    Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Savannah Electric alleging violations
    of the New Source Review provisions of the Clean Air Act. The lawsuit
    requests penalties and injunctive relief, including an order requiring
    the installation of the best available control technology at six
    affected units. The EPA has issued a notice of violation relating to
    each of these facilities as well as two others owned by Alabama Power.
        The cases against Southern's operating units have been stayed since
    the spring of 2001. A ruling is pending by the U.S. Court of Appeals
    for the Eleventh Circuit in the appeal of a very similar New Source
    Review enforcement action against the Tennessee Valley Authority.
    Because the outcome of the TVA appeal could affect the lawsuits pending
    against Southern's operating units, Alabama Power and Georgia Power
    have become parties to the TVA case as well. Southern believes its
    operating units were engaged in ``common and traditional maintenance
    activities'' of its power plants and ``complied with applicable laws
    and the EPA's regulations and interpretations in effect at the time the
    work in question took place.''

    Other Clean Air Act Issues
        Southern's 2002 Form 10-K addresses a number of other requirements
    concerning the Clean Air Act and State clean air standards. These
    requirements are likely to result in additional capital expenditures,
    although in each instance management says it does not have enough
    information to characterize the possible impact on the company's
    operations or financial condition. These include:
        National ambient air quality standards for ozone and fine
    particulate matter: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will issue
    final implementation rules in 2004 that are expected to designate
    several areas within the company's service area with nonattainment
    under the new ozone and fine particulate matter standards. State
    implementation plans to bring those areas into compliance could be
    required as early as 2007. Those State plans could require further
    reductions in nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide emissions from power
    plants sometime after 2007. Management says the impact of any new
    standards will depend on the development and implementation of
    applicable regulations.
        Regional Transport Rule: The EPA also is expected to issue final
    rules for a Regional Transport Rule for the fine particulate matter
    standard in 2005. This rule would likely require year-round sulfur
    dioxide and nitrogen oxide emission reductions from power plants as
    early as 2010. If issued, this rule would likely modify other State
    implementation plan requirements for attainment of the fine particulate
    matter standard and ozone standard referenced above. Management says it
    is not possible at this time to determine the effect such a rule would
    have on the company.
        Regional haze: Further reductions in sulfur dioxide also could be
    required under the EPA's Regional Haze rules. The Regional Haze rules
    require States to establish Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART)
    standards for certain sources that contribute to regional haze.
    Southern says it has a number of plants that could be subject to these
    rules. State Implementation Plans for these rules are due in 2007 and
    2008. Because new BART rules have not been developed and State
    visibility assessments are only beginning, management says it is not
    possible to determine the effect of these rules on the company at this
    time.
        Compliance assurance monitoring: The EPA's Compliance Assurance
    Monitoring (CAM) regulations require that monitoring be performed to
    ensure compliance with emissions limitations on an ongoing basis. Four
    of Southern's operating companies will be applying for renewal of
    operating permits between 2003 and 2005 that will likely be subject to
    CAM requirements for at least one pollutant (in most cases particulate
    matter). The company is in the process of developing CAM plans, which
    could indicate a need for improved particulate matter controls at
    affected facilities. Because the plans are still in the early stages of
    development, management says it cannot determine the extent to which
    improved controls could be required or the costs associated with any
    necessary improvements.
        Mercury: The EPA plans to issue final rules regulating mercury
    emissions from electric utility boilers by the end of 2004. The program
    is being developed under the Maximum Achievable Control Technology
    provisions of the Clean Air Act. Compliance could be required as early
    as the end of 2007. Because the rules have not yet been proposed,
    management says the costs associated with compliance cannot be
    determined at this time.

    Coal Research
        Southern is committed to the continued use of coal as one of its
    main sources of generation. It says on its company website that is
    pursuing development of coal technologies that ``could 1 day generate
    energy from coal while producing dramatically fewer emissions or no
    emissions at all.'' Southern has managed more than $400 million in
    research and development efforts over the last 10 years, much of it on
    clean-coal technologies. ``During the transition period to new clean
    coal technologies and other cleaner generation, it is critical that
    existing units be kept in efficient, operational order to maintain the
    reliability of our electric power system,'' the company says.
    ``Utilities must be able to operate and maintain their plants to meet
    increases in demand for electricity.''
        At a facility in Alabama, Southern has successfully tested a
    technology that turns coal into gas, which could be used to produce
    electricity more cleanly than traditional coal plants. Coal
    gasification would cut carbon dioxide emissions by more than one third,
    relative to conventional coal plants, and emissions of sulfur dioxide,
    nitrogen oxides and particulate matter also would be ``significantly
    reduced,'' according to the company. The research program is a
    partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy in which $271 million
    has been invested.
        Southern is also one of eight large coal-burning utilities and coal
    companies to form an alliance that seeks the creation of a ``near zero-
    emission'' coal-fueled power plant. The alliance is in support of
    President Bush's FutureGen Initiative, a 10-year public-private
    partnership that seeks to advance the use of hydrogen through
    extraction from coal. An April 22, 2003, press release announcing the
    alliance States that ``The U.S. has more than a 300-year supply of
    coal; therefore, the effort to design near zero-emissions power plants
    promises to create a new way in which coal can power our economy with
    minimal environmental impacts.''
        Southern also became the first utility to join the Zero Emission
    Coal Alliance. The aim of the alliance is to test technology that
    generates electricity with coal in a process that stores carbon dioxide
    in a solid, mineral carbonate form, thereby eliminating greenhouse gas
    emissions. Hydrogen extracted from coal through an anaerobic process is
    used in a fuel cell to generate electricity. Rights to the proprietary
    technology are now held by ZECA Corporation, which aims to be ``the
    premier owner and supplier of Zero Emission Coal and Carbon
    solutions.''

                           III. PROPONENTS' POSITION

        This is the fourth time that shareholder proponents affiliated with
    the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility have submitted a
    global warming resolution to Southern Company. Shareholder proponents
    withdrew resolutions asking the company to report on the costs and
    liabilities of climate change in 1997, 1999 and 2002. The withdrawals
    came because ``the company was willing to be forthcoming with data we
    were asking for,'' according to Sister Patricia Daly, executive
    director of the Tri-State Coalition for Responsible Investment, who has
    been one of the lead filers at Southern.
        Earlier this year, the company once again sent representatives,
    including Dr. Charles Goodman, Southern's senior vice president for
    research and environmental affairs, to meet with Daly and other
    shareholder proponents in New York. Daly told IRRC that this year's
    meeting was not as productive as in years past, ``because they clearly
    had not done their homework on what our new resolution is about.''
    Company executives presented an update of Southern's environmental
    progress and initiatives. ``But we're in a whole new ballgame now,''
    Daly explained. ``We want the company to evaluate its data in terms of
    climate change risk, and we don't have any indication that anyone at
    the company is doing this.''
        The resolved clause of the 2003 global warming resolution has two
    elements. It asks the company's board of directors to report on:
        (a) the economic risks associated with the Company's past, present
    and future emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide
    and mercury emissions, and the public stance of the company regarding
    efforts to reduce these emissions and (b) the economic benefits of
    committing to a substantial reduction of those emissions related to its
    current business activities (i.e., potential improvement in
    competitiveness and profitability).
        In a presentation by Ceres, a coalition working closely with the
    Interfaith Center on the 2003 shareholder campaign, general arguments
    made in favor of the global warming resolution filed with electric
    utilities are as follows:
        1. Health and environmental risks from pollutants: Electric
    utilities account for two-thirds of the nation's sulfur dioxide
    emissions, one-third of its mercury emissions and nearly one-quarter of
    its nitrogen oxides emissions. These pollutants contribute to asthma,
    lung and heart disease and mercury bioaccumulation in humans, and cause
    extensive damage to the environment, including acid rain, smog and
    mercury bioaccumulation in fish and other species. At the same time,
    electric utilities account for 37 percent of the nation's carbon
    dioxide emissions, the main gas tied to global warming.
        2. Government regulation of these pollutants: Emissions of sulfur
    dioxide and nitrogen oxides are regulated under the Clean Air Act. This
    Federal law will require substantial additional reductions of these
    emissions as well as mercury in the years ahead. Utilities will have to
    make major new investments in pollution control technology, but this
    technology will not control carbon dioxide emissions.
        3. Risks of not factoring in carbon dioxide controls: The
    proponents believe domestic regulatory controls of CO2 are inevitable.
    Two States (New Hampshire and Massachusetts) have already passed laws
    restricting utility emissions of CO2, and Federal legislation has been
    introduced as well. At the international level, the Kyoto Protocol is
    likely to go into effect this year (although the Bush Administration
    has said the United States will not be bound by the agreement).
        According to studies cited by the proponents, the most expensive
    choice utilities could make is to retrofit existing fossil energy
    plants with new pollution control equipment and then have to reduce CO2
    emissions from these plants. The proponents argue that utilities should
    factor future CO2 controls into their investment strategies now, since
    it could alter decisions about which power plants to retrofit with new
    pollution control equipment and which to replace with new, cleaner
    energy sources.
        4. Need for greater disclosure by utilities: By some estimates
    cited by the proponents, many electric utilities face a ``carbon
    exposure'' of between 10 and 35 percent of their total market
    capitalization. (In other words, the cost of achieving carbon dioxide
    emission controls as specified by the Kyoto Protocol equals 10 to 35
    percent of the current value of their stock.) Many factors go into
    making this calculation, including a utility's generating assets, fuel
    mix, installed pollution control technologies and whether it is
    competing in a deregulated electricity market. ``Investors cannot
    assess this risk without more disclosure'' from utilities, according to
    Ceres.
        That is why the proposal calls on management to conduct a thorough
    economic assessment of the risks and benefits of achieving substantial
    emissions reductions of the four pollutants listed in the proposal.
    ``We believe that taking early action on reducing emissions and
    preparing for standards could better position companies over their
    peers, including being first to market with new high-efficiency and
    low-emission technologies,'' the proponents argue. ``Changing consumer
    preferences, particularly those relating to clean energy, should also
    be considered. Inaction and opposition to emissions control efforts
    could expose companies to reputation and brand damage, and regulatory
    and litigation risk,'' it concludes.

                           IV. MANAGEMENT'S POSITION

        Management opposes the resolution seeking more disclosure on the
    company's efforts to address climate change. It argues that the
    resolution would duplicate company reporting activities and be unduly
    speculative. It says in its proxy statement that ``the detailed
    information requested on future costs and risks would require knowledge
    of future governmental or other legal action,'' beyond what is already
    discussed in company reports.
        Management says the proponents' request for information on the
    ``economic risks associated with the Company's past, present, and
    future emissions'' can be found in the Southern's Annual Report on Form
    10-K, which is available on the Company's website and the website of
    the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, details on the
    company's risk factors, including historic and anticipated
    environmental costs and known future contingencies, are included in the
    company's Annual Report to Stockholders in the Management's Discussion
    and Analysis section.
        Finally, management says the company's environmental commitment and
    achievements are described in its Environmental Progress Report, which
    is available for viewing and downloading on the company's website and
    will be sent to stockholders or others upon request.
        Management does not offer any specific comments in its proxy
    statement on the global warming issue or its expenditures to control
    emissions of pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. It says only
    that Southern ``is committed to complying fully with all environmental
    laws and regulations as well as maintaining our commitment to
    environmental stewardship in such a way that appropriately considers
    our customers and stockholders.''

                                V. IRRC ANALYSIS

    SmartVoter Guidelines
        Voting guidelines for this resolution are presented under issue
    number 3425 in IRRC's SmartVoter product.
        Questions Raised
          Is Southern responding adequately to the risks of global
    warming?
          Could Southern do more to report on these risks to
    shareholders?
        Risks of global warming: As the nation's second largest electric
    utility, and one of the most heavily reliant on coal, Southern has a
    tremendous amount at stake in the global warming debate. Carbon dioxide
    emissions from its power plants account for nearly 2.5 percent of the
    nation's CO2 emissions. As it expands its power generation, Southern
    expects these emissions to grow by another 16 percent by 2020-for a
    total increase of 45 percent between 1990 and 2020.
        Legislation proposed in Congress calls on companies to ``cap and
    trade'' their emissions. Under the Climate Stewardship Act, for
    example, companies would be required to return to 1990 emissions levels
    by 2016. The Kyoto Protocol (which the United States has not endorsed)
    calls for more stringent controls-a 7 percent cut in CO2 emissions
    below 1990 levels by 2012. Management says it is focused on
    ``addressing emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2,'' but it has
    not indicated to shareholders the extent of such controls and whether
    they would have a material impact on the company's operations and
    financial condition. It says the cost impacts of CO2 controls would
    depend upon specific requirements of government legislation.
        Meanwhile, Southern continues to make extensive investments in its
    aging fleet of coal-fired power plants. As the utility industry's #2
    emitter of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, Southern has spent $1.4
    billion to install pollution control equipment under the acid rain and
    ozone nonattainment provisions of the Clean Air Act. It expects to
    spend an additional $4 billion or more by 2015 to further reduce these
    and mercury emissions. However, its spending on pollution control could
    be higher and come sooner if it loses a series of court cases now
    before U.S. Court of Appeals. At issue is whether Southern's older coal
    plants must install best available pollution control technology when
    they receive modifications. Management says that an adverse outcome in
    any one of these cases could require ``substantial capital
    expenditures'' and could require payment of ``substantial penalties"-
    ranging up to $27,500 per day, per violation at each generating unit.
        The proponents are concerned that Southern may find itself making
    costly investments to retrofit existing fossil energy plants with new
    pollution control equipment and later have to reduce CO2 emissions from
    these plants, compromising the future value of these investments. The
    proponents argue that utilities should factor possible CO2 controls
    into their investment strategies now, since that could alter their
    decisions about which power plants to retrofit and which to replace
    with new, cleaner energy sources. Accordingly, they are asking
    management to issue a report on this issue.
        Adequacy of reporting by Southern: Southern provides a much clearer
    outlook for its power generation than most electric utilities. With
    projections out to 2020, management has informed shareholders that it
    expects its power generation to grow by 45 percent, even as it reduces
    its emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides by 68 to 80 percent
    of 1990 levels. These reductions will be made possible not only by
    investments in pollution control equipment at its coal-fired plants,
    but also by construction of new gas-fired plants to meet incremental
    power demand. Natural gas is expected to account for about half of
    Southern generating mix by 2020, while coal's contribution is expected
    to fall from about two-thirds to just over one-third. Because natural
    gas has a lower carbon content than coal and burns more efficiently,
    Southern also expects to reduce the ``carbon emissions intensity'' of
    its power production. For every 3 percent increase in power generation,
    it is projecting only a 1 percent increase in its CO2 emissions.
        As detailed as this reporting is, it still does not answer the
    proponents' fundamental question, however: What will the company do if
    it has to achieve stabilization or reductions in its CO2 emissions over
    the next 10 to 20 years? By 2020, Southern's CO2 emissions are
    projected to be 45 percent above 1990 levels. Accordingly, even
    achieving stabilization at 1990 levels would entail a substantial
    emissions reduction from the levels now being projected.
        On this vital contingency, management offers very little guidance
    in its Form 10-K or other securities filings. With respect to
    government policy, management says the effects on the company would
    depend on the terms of legislative controls. With respect to
    technology, management does acknowledge that the commercial success of
    low-emitting technologies, such as fuel cells and renewables, could
    erode its market share and reduce the value of its electric generating
    facilities, if they achieve economies of scale. But again management
    gives no indication of whether these developments would be material to
    the company and its shareholders. By inference, the suggestion is that
    they could be.
        By reviewing the company's environmental report, shareholders are
    able to glean some other useful pieces of information. With respect to
    renewables, Southern does not see them posing much of a threat-or
    opportunity-in its service area because the available resources are
    limited and the costs of generation are higher than power from coal or
    natural gas. (This assumes no costs of carbon emissions will be added
    to these fuels.) With respect to coal, Southern says it is pursuing
    development of cleaner-burning technologies that ``could 1 day generate
    energy from coal while producing dramatically fewer emissions or no
    emissions at all.'' It does not give a clear sense of the generating
    costs or technological hurdles that remain with clean coal
    technologies, however, so it is not possible for shareholders to
    compare their prospects with those of renewables. Finally, with respect
    to the issue of climate change, Southern continues to regard it as
    ``global and long-term in nature,'' and believes that policies ``should
    seek to resolve climate change scientific uncertainties.'' Management's
    key point is this:
        During the transition period to new clean coal technologies and
    other cleaner generation, it is critical that existing units be kept in
    efficient, operational order to maintain the reliability of our
    electric power system. Utilities must be able to operate and maintain
    their plants to meet increases in demand for electricity.
        Herein lies the dilemma for investors. The proponents say
    management must provide better information on the costs and risks of
    this strategy, given that the cost of achieving carbon dioxide emission
    controls ranges from 10 to 35 percent of the current value of utility
    companies' stock, according to some estimates. Management says,
    however, that the detailed information requested by the proponents
    would require knowledge of future governmental or other legal action
    beyond what is already discussed in company reports.
        In the final analysis, shareholders who are satisfied with
    Southern's current level of reporting-which at least provides a clear
    outlook for the company's generating mix and projected emissions
    through 2020-will be inclined to side with management and vote against
    this proposal. Those who feel that management could set some better
    financial parameters around the uncertainties in its outlook-especially
    what legal, regulatory and legislative developments could be material
    to the company and its shareholders-will be inclined to support the
    proponents' call for a more detailed report on the costs and benefits
    of Southern's evolving response to climate change.

                                     ______

                  EXCERPT FROM SOUTHERN CO.'S PROXY STATEMENT
        Shareholder Proposal Related To An Environmental Report:
                         ``ELECTRIC UTILITY RESOLUTION

        WHEREAS:
        In 2001 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded
    that ``there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
    observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.''
        In 2001 the National Academy of Sciences stated that the ``degree
    of confidence in the IPCC assessment is higher today than it was 10, or
    even 5 years ago . . . there is general agreement that the observed
    warming is real and particularly strong within the past 20 years.''
        The United States government's ``Climate Action Report--2002,''
    concluded that global climate change may harm the country. The report
    highlights risks to coastal communities in the Southeast due to sea
    level rise, water shortages throughout the West, and increases in the
    heat index and frequency of heat waves.
        In July 2002, 11 Attorneys General wrote President Bush, outlining
    their concern over the U.S. Climate Action Report's failure to
    recommend mandatory reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. They
    declared that States are being forced to fill the Federal regulatory
    void through State-by-State regulation and litigation, increasing the
    ultimate costs of addressing climate change. They urged a
    reconsideration of his regulatory position, and adoption of a
    ``comprehensive policy that will protect both our citizens and our
    economy.''
        U.S. power plants are responsible for about two-thirds of the
    country's sulfur dioxide emissions, one-quarter of its nitrogen oxides
    emissions, one-third of its mercury emissions, approximately 40 percent
    of its carbon dioxide emissions, and 10 percent of global carbon
    dioxide emissions.
        Scientific studies show that air pollution from U.S. power plants
    causes tens of thousands of premature deaths and hospitalizations,
    hundreds of thousands of asthma attacks, and several million lost
    workdays nationwide every year from pollution-related ailments.
        Standards for carbon dioxide emissions and other air pollutants are
    emerging across multiple fronts. Ninety-six countries have ratified the
    Kyoto Protocol, requiring carbon dioxide reductions. Massachusetts and
    New Hampshire have enacted legislation capping power plants emissions
    of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants. In June 2002 the Senate
    Environment and Public Works Committee passed a bill seeking to cap
    emissions from the generation of electric and thermal energy.
        We believe that taking early action on reducing emissions and
    preparing for standards could better position companies over their
    peers, including being first to market with new high-efficiency and
    low-emission technologies. Changing consumer preferences, particularly
    those relating to clean energy, should also be considered.
        Inaction and opposition to emissions control efforts could expose
    companies to reputation and brand damage, and regulatory and litigation
    risk.
        RESOLVED: That the Board of Directors report (at reasonable cost
    and omitting proprietary information) by August 2003 to shareholders on
    (a) the economic risks associated with the Company's past, present and
    future emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and
    mercury emissions, and the public stance of the company regarding
    efforts to reduce these emissions and (b) the economic benefits of
    committing to a substantial reduction of those emissions related to its
    current business activities (i.e. potential improvement in
    competitiveness and profitability).''

    THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS RECOMMENDS A VOTE ``AGAINST'' ITEM NO. 3 FOR THE
                               FOLLOWING REASONS:

        The Company is committed to complying fully with all environmental
    laws and regulations as well as maintaining our commitment to
    environmental stewardship in such a way that appropriately considers
    our customers and stockholders.
        The proposal requests a report to our shareholders on the
    ``economic risks associated with the Company's past, present, and
    future emissions.'' The Company currently provides details regarding
    its risk factors including historic and anticipated environmental costs
    and known future contingencies. This information is included in the
    Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31,
    2002 (``Form 10-K''). The Form 10-K is available on the Company's
    website and the website of the Securities and Exchange Commission and
    may be obtained from the Company. (See page 2 of this Proxy Statement
    for information on requesting a copy of the Form 10-K from the
    Company.)
        Details on the Company's risk factors, including historic and
    anticipated environmental costs and known future contingencies, are
    also included in the Annual Report to stockholders in the Management's
    Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial
    Condition section and in the Notes to Financial Statements.
        In addition, the Company's environmental commitment and
    achievements are described in our Environmental Progress Report. This
    report is available for viewing and downloading on the Company's
    website and will be sent to stockholders or others upon request.
        The Company opposes this proposal because the information the
    Company would report is largely duplicative of information already
    provided. We also believe the detailed information requested on future
    costs and risks would require knowledge of future governmental or other
    legal action and is too speculative to report and quantify as requested
    by the proposal, beyond what is discussed in the reports noted above.
    We believe that it is in the best interests of our stockholders that
    the Company not be required to incur the additional expense of
    producing and distributing such a report.
        The vote needed to pass the proposed stockholders' resolution is a
    majority of the shares represented at the meeting and entitled to vote.
        THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS RECOMMENDS A VOTE ``AGAINST'' ITEM NO. 3.

                                   __________
      Statement of Mark Brownstein, Director of Enterprise Strategy, PSEG
                              Services Corporation

        I am honored to be here this morning to represent Public Service
    Enterprise Group ( PSEG), and the Clean Energy Group.
        PSEG is a diversified energy company with over $25 billion in
    assets and over $8 billion in annual revenues. The PSEG family of
    companies includes Public Service Electric and Gas Company, New
    Jersey's oldest and largest electric and gas delivery company, PSEG
    Global, which owns and operates energy production and distribution
    facilities overseas, and PSEG Power, one of the largest independent
    electric generating companies in the United States, with 13,000
    megawatts of electric generating capacity operating or under
    construction in New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Ohio,
    and Indiana.
        The Clean Energy Group (CEG) is a coalition of companies with more
    than 100,000 Mw of generation capacity nationwide, including coal, gas,
    oil, nuclear, and renewables. The members of CEG--Consolidated Edison,
    Inc., Entergy, Exelon Corporation, KeySpan, Northeast Utilities, PG&E
    National Energy Group, Sempra Energy, and PSEG are committed to
    promoting progressive environmental policies that are economically
    sound and sustainable.
        PSEG, which celebrates its 100th anniversary this week, has long
    believed that environmental performance is one indicator of overall
    business performance. Experience has taught us that proactive steps to
    improve environmental performance can often lead to better bottom line
    results. That said we never take our eye off of bottom line results. In
    our view, environment and economics are inseparable, and, as with many
    things in life, the secret to success is finding the right balance.
        If you remember only one thing from what I say here today, please
    remember that one word: balance. For PSEG and the CEG member companies,
    the single greatest value to be derived from Federal multi-pollutant
    legislation aside from the public health and environmental benefits
    themselves--is certainty. And the best way we know to achieve certainty
    is through a public policy outcome that strikes the right balance
    between environmental and energy policy objectives.
        I am aware that this is the third hearing you have held on the many
    questions surrounding multi-pollutant legislation. And I am also aware
    that various stakeholders have come before you to argue that the
    current proposals on the table go too far, or do not go far enough. I
    suppose such a tug of war is common in politics, but in business, we
    often worry when any one extreme carrys the day, for experience shows
    that a strong pull to any one extreme only invites an equal and
    opposite backlash at some point down the road. From day one, our goal
    in this debate has been to seek and encourage consensus for we believe
    that it is only through consensus that we can achieve the kind of
    regulatory stability essential to the health of our industry.
        You have heard from others here today about the importance of
    certainty, and I echo that concern. This is a very capital intensive
    industry, where large investments are made in assets that last 30 years
    or more. Making large bets on the future is an inherently risky
    proposition, and no amount of legislative activity on your part can
    offer us 100 percent certainty. But to the extent that the trajectory
    of future environmental requirements looms large in the planning of any
    major player in our industry, you can make a significant difference by
    crafting legislation that clearly articulates expectations over the
    next 15 years, at least.
        The past two and a half years have been tumultuous for our
    industry. We do not need any more excitement. But where some people
    might argue that now is the wrong time to set new environmental
    requirements, we would argue that to take this ``do nothing'' advice
    would be to kill us with kindness.
        Whether you believe that the current oversupply of generation and
    capital crunch will last 2 years or 5 years, the fact of the matter is
    that current market conditions in our industry are part of a cycle. At
    some point, hopefully soon, companies like ours will begin to make new
    investments in our nation's energy infrastructure, and when we do, it
    is critical that we have a clear understanding of the environmental
    requirements we will have to meet. Otherwise, I fear, we will be making
    bad investments.
        Nowhere is this more true than the issue of carbon dioxide
    regulation. First off, let me state for the record, as we have said
    many times in the past, PSEG believes that President Bush was right to
    reject the Kyoto Protocol. The reductions contemplated under that
    agreement demanded too much, too fast for our industry and our economy
    to handle.
        At the same time, we think the issue of climate change is real, and
    we believe a domestic regulatory response is both necessary and
    inevitable. Given that our industry is singularly responsible for over
    a third of the nation's greenhouse gas emissions and 10 percent of
    total manmade greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, we cannot, and should
    not dodge this issue.
        With this perspective in mind, we believe that we are better off as
    a company, and as an industry, if we develop and implement a moderate
    response now rather than wait 10 years, only to find that the political
    problem is now worse or that the environmental problem requires a more
    drastic response, and the investment decisions made in the interim were
    dead wrong. This is one of the reasons why we think the bill introduced
    by Senators Carper, Chafee, Gregg make such an important contribution
    to this debate, and why we have been such strong supporters of their
    efforts.
        We are encouraged by the leadership that the Bush Administration
    has shown on the issue of multi-pollutant legislation, and we deeply
    appreciate the leadership that Senator Inhofe and, you, Senator
    Voinovich, have shown in tackling this very difficult issue. We
    encourage you in your efforts to find that balance that I talked about
    earlier, and I pledge the full support of PSEG and the CEG companies in
    your efforts.
        Once again, thank you for the opportunity to testify before this
    committee. I will be happy to answer any questions you may have.