    [House Hearing, 106 Congress]
    [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]

                   U.S.--LIBYA RELATIONS: A NEW ERA?

    =======================================================================

                                    HEARING

                                   BEFORE THE

                             SUBCOMMITTEE ON AFRICA

                                     OF THE

                                  COMMITTEE ON
                            INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
                            HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

                           ONE HUNDRED SIXTH CONGRESS

                                 FIRST SESSION

                                   __________

                             Tuesday, July 22, 1999

                                   __________

                               Serial No. 106-82

                                   __________

        Printed for the use of the Committee on International Relations

                        U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

    63-272 CC                   WASHINGTON : 2000

                      COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

                     BENJAMIN A. GILMAN, New York, Chairman
    WILLIAM F. GOODLING, Pennsylvania    SAM GEJDENSON, Connecticut
    JAMES A. LEACH, Iowa                 TOM LANTOS, California
    HENRY J. HYDE, Illinois              HOWARD L. BERMAN, California
    DOUG BEREUTER, Nebraska              GARY L. ACKERMAN, New York
    CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH, New Jersey     ENI F.H. FALEOMAVAEGA, American
    DAN BURTON, Indiana                      Samoa
    ELTON GALLEGLY, California           MATTHEW G. MARTINEZ, California
    ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN, Florida         DONALD M. PAYNE, New Jersey
    CASS BALLENGER, North Carolina       ROBERT E. ANDREWS, New Jersey
    DANA ROHRABACHER, California         ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey
    DONALD A. MANZULLO, Illinois         SHERROD BROWN, Ohio
    EDWARD R. ROYCE, California          CYNTHIA A. McKINNEY, Georgia
    PETER T. KING, New York              ALCEE L. HASTINGS, Florida
    STEVE CHABOT, Ohio                   PAT DANNER, Missouri
    MARSHALL ``MARK'' SANFORD, South     EARL F. HILLIARD, Alabama
        Carolina                         BRAD SHERMAN, California
    MATT SALMON, Arizona                 ROBERT WEXLER, Florida
    TOM CAMPBELL, California             STEVEN R. ROTHMAN, New Jersey
    JOHN M. McHUGH, New York             JIM DAVIS, Florida
    BILL LUTHER, Minnesota               EARL POMEROY, North Dakota
    LINDSEY GRAHAM, South Carolina       WILLIAM D. DELAHUNT, Massachusetts
    ROY BLUNT, Missouri                  GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York
    KEVIN BRADY, Texas                   BARBARA LEE, California
    RICHARD BURR, North Carolina         JOSEPH CROWLEY, New York
    PAUL E. GILLMOR, Ohio                JOSEPH M. HOEFFEL, Pennsylvania
    GEORGE P. RADANOVICH, California
    JOHN COOKSEY, Louisiana
    THOMAS G. TANCREDO, Colorado
                        Richard J. Garon, Chief of Staff
              Kathleen Bertelsen Moazed, Democratic Chief of Staff
                                     ------

                             Subcommittee on Africa

                     EDWARD R. ROYCE, California, Chairman
    AMO HOUGHTON, New York               DONALD M. PAYNE, New Jersey
    STEVE CHABOT, Ohio                   ALCEE L. HASTINGS, Florida
    TOM CAMPBELL, California             GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York
    GEORGE RADANOVICH, California        BARBARA LEE, California
    THOMAS G. TANCREDO, Colorado
                    Tom Sheehy, Subcommittee Staff Director
                   Malik M. Chaka, Professional Staff Member
            Charisse Glassman, Democratic Professional Staff Member
                     Charmaine V. Houseman, Staff Associate

                                C O N T E N T S

                                  ----------

                                   WITNESSES

                                                                       Page

    Ambassador Ronald Neumann, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near
      East Affair, U.S. Department of State..........................     3
    Dr. Ray Takeyh, Soref Fellow, the Washington Institute for Near
      East Policy....................................................    15
    Joshua Sinai, Consultant, International Security Division,
      Analytic Services, Inc.........................................    17
    Dr. Momsour El-Kikhia, Associate Professor, University of Texas
      at San Antonio.................................................    18
    A Omar Turbi, Libyan American Human Rights Activist..............    20

                                    APPENDIX

        Chairman Edward R. Royce.....................................    32
        Donald M. Payne..............................................    34
        Dr. Mohamed M. Bugaighid, Libyan American....................    35
        Ronald E. Neumann............................................    36
        Dr. Ray Takeyh...............................................    41
        Dr. Joshua Sinai.............................................    45
        Dr. Mansour O. El-Kikhia.....................................    52
        A Omar Turbi.................................................    59

                      U.S.--LIBYA RELATIONS: A NEW ERA?

                                  ----------

                            Thursday, July 22, 1999

                      House of Representatives,
                                Subcommittee on Africa,
                          Committee on International Relations,
                                                       Washington, D.C.
        The Subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 2:50 p.m., in
    room 2172, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Ed Royce
    (Chairman of the Subcommittee) Presiding.
        Mr. Royce. This hearing of the Subcommittee on Africa will
    come to order.
        Today, the Subcommittee will examine U.S. relations with
    Libya and Libya's growing role on the African continent. Over
    the last several months, the regime of Colonel Mu'ammar
    Qadhafi, which has lasted for 30 years has been on a diplomatic
    offensive. Having turned over two suspects in the Pan Am 103
    case, Libya has managed to have the United Nations sanctions
    against it suspended. Libya has also undertaken numerous
    diplomatic initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa.
        It is noteworthy that this upcoming September, the
    Organization of African Unity will hold an extraordinary
    session in Tripoli. Until recently Libya had been a long-time
    OAU nonparticipant. Libya is clearly moving away from its
    diplomatic isolation.
        America's rocky relationship with Qadhafi's Libya goes back
    two decades. In the 1970's commercial relations between the two
    countries were considerable, with United States-Libya trade at
    that time totaling more than $4 billion annually. During these
    years, many Libyan students studied in the United States. This
    ended when the U.S. broke diplomatic ties with Libya in 1981
    due to its sponsorship of international terrorism. Our 1986
    bombing of Tripoli in retaliation for Libya's bombing of the
    Berlin disco, which took the lives of American servicemen, was
    soon followed by the imposition of comprehensive U.S. travel
    and trade bans, which have been renewed annually.
        The bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie led to U.N.
    sanctions being imposed on Libya in 1992. The recent suspension
    of U.N. sanctions on Libya, done with U.S. approval, has opened
    the door for Libya to reestablish international air links to
    upgrade its oil industry and develop its infrastructure with
    the aid of foreign investment. The U.S. recently ended its ban
    on Libyan commercial purchases of American food and medicine.
        The Subcommittee is looking forward to hearing how the
    administration will proceed with Libya policy as the Lockerbie
    trial proceeds. While Libya's cooperation with this trial will
    be a good barometer of its future intentions toward the U.S.
    other nations, the U.S. has other issues of concern with Libya
    including its development of weapons of mass destruction and
    any current support for terrorism.
        An area of particular concern to this Subcommittee is
    Libya's role in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the years, Libya has
    provided military aid to numerous rebel groups, including the
    RUF, the Revolutionary United Front, in Sierra Leone which
    recently managed to terrorize its way into the government.
    Libya has also emerged as a diplomatic player, injecting itself
    into Sudan, the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, and the Democratic
    Republic of the Congo conflict. Sometimes it has done this in
    the guise of peacemaker; and sometimes it has done it as an
    arms supplier.
        It is hard to look at Libya's involvement in these
    conflicts, in many cases, as a plus. It is also hard not to see
    Libya's increasing presence in Africa as a challenge to U.S.
    diplomacy on the continent. Qadhafi's intention to have Libya
    assume a leading role in Africa should be of concern. It is
    clear that Libya's international profile is changing. What is
    less clear is whether this change is fundamental and whether
    this change is an improvement.
        Libya has the potential to significantly impact U.S.
    political, economic and security interests. Today's hearing
    should shed light on how we should proceed with Libya to
    advance our National interests. I would now like to recognize
    Mr. Payne, who is the ranking Member on this Subcommittee, for
    his opening statement.
        Mr. Payne. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you for
    calling this very important and timely hearing on Libya. As you
    have indicated, there has been many changes that recently have
    been going on. I think it is probably too early to judge where
    we are with Libya-U.S. relations.
        At the height of the Cold War, Libya rejected the Soviet
    Union as the leader of the Eastern Bloc and the United States
    as the Western Bloc because in their eyes they were all
    colonial powers. Libya followed Egypt's Nasser's lead and had
    to rely on the nonaligned movement. However, by the mid-1970's,
    Libya turned to the Soviet Union for weapons denied by the West
    and because the Soviets were more supportive of the Arab cause
    against our ally, Israel.
        Since that time, Libya has been a country, in my opinion,
    specially currently confused with its place in the
    international community. Although geographically located on the
    continent of Africa, Libya is seen primarily as an Arab nation,
    as are all of the North African countries. However, during the
    last year, in defiance of the U.N. Air embargo, many African
    leaders have traveled to Tripoli.
        Since the OAU meeting last week and the handover of two
    Libyans accused of carrying out the bombing of Pan Am 103, many
    African leaders, including President Isayas of Eritrea,
    Chairman of the Sierra Leone peace talks; President Eyadema of
    Togo; President Nelson Mandela of South Africa, immediate past
    president; and President Museveni of Uganda and President
    Taylor of Liberia, have all stated their desire for Qadhafi to
    become involved and sometimes mediate conflicts in the region.
    He has actually also offered his mediation for the India-
    Pakistan conflict in addition to a number of those in Africa.
        In conclusion, let me say that I am anxious to hear the
    testimony of the witnesses before us and hope we can shed some
    light on this newly unfolding relationship between Arab-African
    nations and the United States.
        Thank you once again, Mr. Chairman, for calling this
    hearing.
        Mr. Royce. Thank you, Mr. Payne.
        Ambassador Ronald Neumann was appointed to be the Deputy
    Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs in
    September 1997. Prior to this appointment, he served as
    Ambassador to Algeria. Ambassador Neumann has extensive
    experience in the Near East, having also served in Iran, Yemen
    and elsewhere; and he testified before our Subcommittee in the
    last Congress on Algeria and the Western Sahara. It is good to
    see you back, Ambassador.

       STATEMENT OF AMBASSADOR RONALD NEUMANN, DEPUTY ASSISTANT
        SECRETARY FOR NEAR EAST AFFAIR, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE

        Mr. Neumann. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman and Mr.
    Payne, and thank you for inviting me to speak to you on the
    current status of U.S.-Libya policy, an area where patience and
    our diplomatic initiatives have brought a significant success.
    It has been some time since hearings have been held on this
    subject, so if you will permit me, I will begin with just a
    brief reflection of how we got where we are.
        It is important to remember that approximately 18 months
    ago, U.N. sanctions, in place since 1992, were having an impact
    on Libya, but the symbolic dimensions, the ban on air travel
    and mandate to reduce Libyan diplomatic presence, were seen as
    increasingly futile. International support for new pressure on
    Libya was declining. Sanctions fatigue was setting in. Others
    in the region and our own allies believed it important for all
    concerned to try to bring the matter to a close, but Libya was
    coming no closer to surrendering the suspects in the Pan Am 103
    bombing.
        Against this backdrop, Secretary Albright met with the
    families of the Pan Am 103 victims in August 1997. She listened
    carefully to them, was moved by their pain, and she promised to
    do something to provide the victims and families with some
    measure of justice and closure as the tenth anniversary of the
    tragedy approached.
        We began months of discussion with the British and the
    Dutch. Our goal was to fulfill the U.N. Security Council's
    mandated requirement of a U.K. or U.S. trial for the two
    indicted Libyans. We and the British had insisted since the
    1988 bombing and the 1991 indictment that the suspects could be
    tried only in a U.S. or U.K. Court. Colonel Qadhafi had
    suggested he would accept a Scottish trial in a third country,
    and we decided to call his bluff.
        We established a Scottish court, applying Scottish law and
    providing Scottish legal safeguards in the Netherlands. This
    was no easy feat. It required new legislation to be passed by
    the Dutch parliament, an Order in Council to be adopted by the
    British Government, a U.K.-Netherlands agreement and the strong
    support of these two allies.
        On August 24 of last year, we unveiled our plan and said to
    Libya, you have repeatedly expressed support for a third-
    country trial venue. As Secretary Albright said, take it or
    leave it. We expect you now, we said to the Libyans, to
    surrender the two suspects for trial before a Scottish court
    seated in the Netherlands. We and the U.K. Presented our
    initiative to the U.N. Security Council, and members endorsed
    it unanimously.
        Secretary Albright met again with the Pan Am 103 families
    on October 26 to explain the initiative. Most of the families
    supported our efforts, including most of those who had
    originally been reluctant. Secretary Albright committed that
    there would be no negotiations and that she would seek tougher
    sanctions if Libya did not surrender the suspects. We refused
    to negotiate. There was no secret deal.
        Instead, from August to April, we worked through U.N.
    Secretary-General Annan to provide clarifications, primarily of
    legal aspects, of our initiative. We assured the Libyans that,
    once surrendered, the suspects would be tried fairly and in
    strict accordance with Scottish law. We provided no guarantees
    of where the evidence would lead or how the trial would be
    conducted. The trial would be a genuine criminal proceeding,
    not a political show trial.
        On April 5, Libya surrendered the suspects, thanks in large
    part to the efforts of Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Abdullah,
    Saudi Arabian ambassador to the U.S. Prince Bandar Bin Sultan,
    South African President Mandela, Egyptian President Mubarak and
    U.N. Secretary-General Annan. But our clear determination to
    see the suspects surrendered for trial in a Scottish court was
    of critical importance.
        Upon surrender of the suspects, U.N. sanctions were
    suspended in accordance with the Security Council Resolution
    1192. I would stress that U.S. unilateral sanctions remain in
    place. Resolution 1192 also asked the Secretary-General to
    report to Council members within 90 days on Libyan compliance
    with the remaining Security Council requirements. These
    requirements, outlined in three resolutions, demand that Libya
    renounce and end all support for terrorist activities,
    acknowledge responsibility for the actions of its officials,
    cooperate with the trial and pay appropriate compensation. We
    continue to require that they those conditions be fully
    fulfilled.
        We met twice in New York, first with the U.N. Secretary
    General and the British; and then with the Secretary General,
    the British and the Libyans. We invited the Libyans to attend
    this meeting in order to make clear to them what the
    resolutions require, that we are serious about full compliance
    and that such compliance is not impossible. We also made clear
    our view that we would not agree to terminate U.N. sanctions
    until compliance had been demonstrated by Libyan actions.
        As a practical matter, we will not be able to assure
    ourselves that Libya is cooperating fully with the trial until
    after it is substantially under way.
        On June 30, 1999, the Secretary General reported to the
    Council that Libya had made assurances it would fulfill all the
    requirements, but had not yet done so. The Council responded
    with a Council Presidential statement that welcomed the
    positive signs from Libya, but confirmed that Libya had not
    complied fully, and that sanctions would not be lifted until
    Libya did. The Council expressed its gratitude to the Secretary
    General for his efforts and requested he follow Libyan
    developments and report accordingly. In other words, instead of
    acceding to calls by some for an immediate lifting of
    sanctions, the world community is now clearly on record as
    agreeing that additional requirements remain and that they must
    be fulfilled.
        The Council's unanimous position was heavily influenced by
    U.S. diplomatic efforts. We were forthright about our intention
    to veto any resolution that would have tried prematurely to
    lift sanctions.
        However, much of the world has been quick to welcome Libya
    back into the community of nations. On the political front, a
    number of nations have reestablished diplomatic relations, and
    Libya has become much more active in regional organizations, as
    you noted, sir.
        On the economic front, immediately following the suspension
    of U.N. sanctions proscribing direct air traffic to and from
    Libya, foreign airlines opened direct routes to Tripoli.
    Foreign firms have also welcomed Libya's indications of
    interest in large infrastructure projects, including in the
    petroleum sector and aircraft purchases. We have taken a
    different route, emphasizing the need for Libya to take
    positive actions to end its support for terrorism and meet all
    the requirements of the U.N. Security Council resolutions
    before unilateral or multilateral sanctions can be lifted.
        We acknowledge Libya's recent declarations of its intention
    to turn over a new page, but given its history, such statements
    are not enough. Positive actions are essential if Libya is to
    be reintegrated into the international community, beginning
    with full cooperation in the Pan Am 103 trial and full
    compliance with the remaining U.N. Security Council
    requirements.
        We recognize that Libya has publicly declared its intention
    to play an active, constructive role in regional conflicts. It
    will be important to test that this rhetoric is supported by
    constructive and consistent actions. There are several problem
    areas where Libya can demonstrate a changed attitude through
    helpful, concrete action.
        We expect Libya to fulfill all of its U.N. Security Council
    requirements: renounce and end all support for terrorist
    activities, acknowledge responsibility for the actions of its
    officials, cooperate with the trial, and pay appropriate
    compensation. Only when Libya has complied fully will we be
    able to consider lifting U.S. sanctions against Libya. Right
    now, such steps would be premature.
        At the same time, it is important to make clear that we
    have no hidden agenda. We have set for Libya clear, specific
    benchmarks that it must meet if it is to become a responsible
    and constructive member of the international community. We have
    set goals Libya can meet if it has the will to do so.
        Thank you, sir.
        [The prepared statement of Mr. Neumann appears in the
    appendix.]
        Mr. Royce. Thank you very much, Ambassador. I will ask you
    a couple of questions.
        First, we had a situation last month where the interior
    ministers from eight Mediterranean countries, including France,
    Italy, and Spain, pledged jointly to cooperate in fighting
    terrorism. Libya was accepted by the others into this group.
    How do our allies in the Mediterranean view Libya, specifically
    its commitment to fight terrorism?
        Mr. Neumann. Sir, when you say the Mediterranean, you are
    talking about both sides there, North African neighbors and the
    southern Mediterranean European states?
        Mr. Royce. Correct.
        Mr. Neumann. There is a limit to how much a foreign
    diplomat should speak for others, but I should say everybody I
    know in the region is approaching Libya with some measure of
    caution. Libya has a very long, disruptive record, and that is
    not just in its relations with us, but its relations with its
    neighbors. But I would say that its neighbors all hope that
    Libya is turning a new page.
        Now, each one proceeds in its own way, but I would say that
    there is a general mix of hope and caution in all of those
    states. The mix of that is different from state to state, but I
    think with the Europeans--for instance, Libya was allowed to
    participate for the first time in a Barcelona meeting, but with
    a sort of particular status as an invited guest that kept them
    short of being a full member and speaking; and I think that
    illustrates both sides of the caution and the hope with which
    the Europeans are pursuing relations with Libya.
        Mr. Royce. You would assume that this level of engagement
    is significant, I would assume from the fact that eight nations
    invited Libya to be part of that process?
        Mr. Neumann. I think it has certainly encouraged Libya, but
    I think the real questions lie in the future on both sides;
    that is, one, will European states proceed to give Libya the
    benefit of the doubt, if you will, moving forward on a variety
    of cooperations without any evidence of a changed behavior? Or
    will they proceed, as we are urging them to, with a bit more
    caution and care?
        The other side is the reciprocal, will Libya try to pocket
    what are symbolic, but frankly rather slender gains, and go
    right back to its old ways; or will the Libyans recognize that
    the way to a better future with the international community is
    to continue to change their behavior? That is really the most
    important question and the one which none of us, including
    myself, can answer yet.
        Mr. Royce. There is no doubt what leads these eight
    European Mediterranean powers to engagement.
        Mr. Neumann. That is certainly what they tell us.
        Mr. Royce. How will the 1996 Iran and Libyan Sanctions Act
    work if other countries, now in active negotiations with the
    Libyan Government over oil and gas concessions, make such
    investments? Do we foresee political conflict with our allies
    over this long period Ambassador?
        Mr. Neumann. I would say that we always foresee problems
    and try to avoid them, but the fact of the matter is the
    Libyan, the Iranian-Libyan Sanctions Act is still on the books.
    It is still law. We are watching very carefully. So far the
    things we have seen that we have been able to investigate have
    been either based on contracts that were signed before ILSA
    came into being, and therefore do not fall under the act, or
    they have fallen under the threshold. But this is a factual
    question which simply has to be tested against each new case as
    it comes up.
        So far, most of these things are either press stories or in
    discussion stages. It has been a very short period of time for
    things to actually get signed and things to happen on the
    ground. The particular pipeline contract, for instance, that
    has been in the press recently was actually signed before
    sanctions were levied and has been there a very long time. So
    there is now a flurry of activity, and whether or not it leads
    to something actually happening and whether that activity would
    fall under the act are both questions that just have to be
    factually determined.
        Mr. Royce. I know you touched on this in your testimony,
    but could you recap under precisely what conditions would the
    U.S. normalize relations with Libya?
        Mr. Neumann. We have come at that question from a
    particular perspective, which is simply that of what is the
    behavior we want Libya--what is the behavior we want to see
    here? We have not addressed in our internal deliberations at
    what point would one have relations, because that is a by-
    product of change, and it is not the function of the actions.
        What we are trying to convey to Libya in our discussions
    with its various neighbors, what we made clear in the
    discussions in New York that Libya attended, is that we have a
    very clear, very hard set of terms that require real proof of
    real change in Libyan behavior, but at the same time there is
    no hidden agenda. There is no trap. It is in Libya's interests
    in terms of its own reintegration into the world, the
    international community, to meet those terms; and that is about
    as far as I can take you because I think the future has to be
    really a reciprocal of what the Libyans do and how they respond
    to it, and we will be proceeding based a great deal on that.
        The biggest issues in front of us are the ones we keep
    talking about now. The Libyans need to pay compensation and
    need to cooperate with the trial, they need to accept the
    responsibility of their officials and they need to renounce
    terrorism. But when we say ``renounce,'' we have a whole series
    of things we have talked to them about at the United Nations,
    what actions will demonstrate that.
        Mr. Royce. Thank you, Ambassador. My time has expired. We
    have been joined by Mr. Meeks of New York, Ms. Lee of
    California, and Mr. Payne of New Jersey, our ranking member. We
    will now go to Mr. Payne's questions.
        Mr. Payne. Thank you very much. Mr. Secretary, for your
    testimony. I understand that sanctions in April on food and
    medicine sales to Libya has been the intention to remove them.
    Has that happened yet or what process would that take?
        Mr. Neumann. Where we are, first of all, is there was a
    generic or global decision to change, at the administration's
    approach, sanctions on food and medicine. It was not a Libyan
    decision or one directed toward Libya or Libya-specific in any
    way. Libya, as do all the rest of the countries where sanctions
    apply, has benefited from that.
        I can tell you that it involves a whole bunch of different
    kinds of things. I don't think all of the directives are in
    place yet, because there is a fairly complicated administrative
    process that has to be set up. I think that is still fine.
    Details of that are still being worked out with Treasury, and I
    just want to do a factual check with my desk officer, who
    really knows those things.
        That process is moving forward. This is to implement a
    policy decision we made, but it is fairly complex to make sure
    you do exactly what you want, not something you don't want.
        Mr. Payne. Yes. I understand it was sort of global, and I
    guess it includes North Korea and Cuba and Iran and Sudan and
    the rest. My concern, and I looked at the points that you
    raised as related to what Libya must do in order for it to even
    be considered as moving back into our view of a nation; that
    is, trying to come back into the community of nations that want
    to renounce and end all support for terrorist activities,
    acknowledge responsibility for the actions of its officials,
    cooperate with the trial and pay appropriate compensation.
        Have the Libyans--has there been any acknowledgment on
    their part that any of these three conditions would be opposed,
    or have there been discussions about the conditions? What has
    been their response, if any?
        Mr. Neumann. The Libyans in a variety of forums in New York
    and in discussions with lots of different countries and in
    their public statements have basically said that they will meet
    all these conditions. There was a letter which they had turned
    over to the Secretary General in which they pledged
    compensation if the people are found guilty. They have said
    repeatedly that they will renounce terrorism. They have pledged
    cooperation at the trial.
        I think the focal point, the biggest piece of each of these
    issues is that we want to see these statements demonstrated in
    their actions. There is nothing in their statements which
    repudiates these requirements, quite the opposite; but Libya
    has a very long record of its statements and its actions not
    quite matching each other, and we think it is very appropriate
    to see that the actions match up to the statements; and we hope
    they will.
        Mr. Payne. I know that there is probably objection or maybe
    suspicion, but I am sure that there will be people in the State
    that feel that we should certainly not move forward, but in
    your opinion, if these conditions are met and if Libya begins
    to move into compliance, do you think there will still be
    objections to trying to move toward a more normal relationship
    with Libya by the U.S. official policy?
        Mr. Neumann. There are a lot of questions here, and of
    course, we haven't even touched on some of the other issues,
    like weapons of mass destruction, in general how Libya will
    conduct its relations in Africa and in the Middle East.
        You had referred, in your statement, to the questions of
    stability and stabilization. So I think that anytime you deal
    with what you do next, there are going to be some different
    attitudes among people based on where Libya is or perceived to
    be on all these issues; but I think at the end of the day there
    is a pretty general agreement that these standards are here for
    a reason, that we really would like Libya out of the terrorist
    business, and it is in our interest to see that happen. It is
    in our interest to see Libya pay compensation to the families,
    and so I think we would have to deal with the reality of those
    interests.
        Mr. Payne. We have a few friends that seem to have positive
    work relations with President Qadhafi, primarily former
    President Mandela and Saudi Arabia's Ambassador to the U.S.,
    Prince Bandar, I believe his name is. Have we sought any of
    their assistance in negotiations, or do we just feel that--let
    me just tell you my interest and concern.
        Of course, as I indicated in my opening statement and as
    you alluded to, the president of Togo and the president of
    Eritrea and the president of Liberia and the president of
    Uganda and the president of South Africa have all gone up to
    Libya. Evidently, there is some connection with sub-Saharan
    Africa, and in the past it has been alleged that Libya has
    supported conflicts, rebel people and so forth. So if this
    negative behavior could be turned into a positive force in
    Africa to deal with the conflicts in Ethiopia-Eritrea, in
    Sierra Leone, those fragile, fragile agreements that aren't
    being tested, the Congo, perhaps deal with some of the
    atrocities in the Sudan, at least--that would be a positive
    step at least for sub-Saharan Africa; and that is my concern
    and interest about whether we believe that Libya is moving
    truly in the right direction, because, if indeed there is some
    influence on these nations and evidently to have some influence
    by virtue of these presidents visiting Libya, then that could
    be perhaps turned into a positive influence on a continent
    which has had many years of conflict. That was primarily my
    interest.
        Mr. Neumann. It is a very valid question and concern, and
    we are in a very interesting period right now. Our view has
    been that Libya has been a very unhelpful state in the past in
    its actions in the Congo, in Ethiopia and in Sudan and Sierra
    Leone. Recently, the Libyans have made a whole set of
    statements about an interest in stability. They have made
    comments favoring the peace agreement in Sierra Leone. For us
    the question now is, will the actions be congruent with the
    statements; and we really don't have enough information, and in
    many ways there just hasn't been enough time to have actions
    take place, let alone to find them out if they are secret. So
    it is something to which we are paying a lot of attention.
        We would very much like it if the actions do measure up to
    the words, but at the same time, we are determined that we are
    not going to be trapped in analyzing actions one way or another
    because we want them to come out some way. They have to speak
    for themselves.
        Mr. Payne. Thank you very much. Appreciate your comments.
    Thank you.
        Mr. Royce. I am going to ask Mr. Meeks and Ms. Lee if
    either has an opening statement before we go to their
    questions.
        Does either of you have an opening statement you would like
    to make?
        OK. Mr. Meeks of New York.
        Mr. Meeks. My question is somewhat along the same line of
    where Mr. Payne left off. I am concerned with reference to us
    possibly being isolated with reference to our relationship to
    Libya.
        Libya has always pumped oil to Western Europe, and recently
    Great Britain has resumed diplomatic relationships with Libya,
    and the U.N. Has temporarily removed sanctions because they say
    that they stepped forward, and we do see that, for example,
    when our policy was wrong in South Africa, Libya's policy was
    right in South Africa, and they are doing what appears to be
    the main thing, at least working in the African continent.
        Could we set a standard that is too high, that the country
    may never be able to meet, and we become the isolated country?
    Libya's economy--we have sanctions, but their economy, they
    expected a surplus budget this year. What effect are we having
    at all with our policy, and if we don't set a timetable or look
    at some of the other good things that they may have done, how
    will that affect our relationships diplomatically also?
        Let me just say this finally, because the British
    Government said, the best way to deal with someone you had
    problems with is to talk with them; and if we are not talking
    with them, you can't resolve problems.
        Mr. Neumann. I think you put your finger on a very
    important point and one that perhaps didn't get quite enough
    attention earlier. In the period before our initiative, this
    question of isolation was very much there. I think the
    initiative we took with the British was very successful in
    reversing that, and in fact, the resolution of the Security
    Council 1,192, which endorsed our approach to a trial in a
    third country and made it into a resolution, made it official,
    was unanimous, the first unanimous move on Libya in quite some
    time, and it added to the pressure on Libya.
        As we have gone forward, this is at times a little
    delicate. We went into the last review of lifting sanctions,
    which is a strange exercise in a way because you are lifting
    something which does not exist in practice, but nevertheless,
    there it is; and there were some big worries that we would be
    isolated in the Council. There were also some worries expressed
    by some people here insisting, by God, we have to veto no
    matter what, and we were aware of both.
        We determined that it was premature to lift sanctions until
    we had the standards met, but we proceeded in a way which I
    think was fairly successful. It was diplomacy at its best. We
    worked with the issues with the various states. We worked it
    with the British. We had a unified position with the British,
    and in the end of the day, we had a Council position that
    recognized that Libya had not yet done everything it needed to
    do. So we actually came out with a consensus statement and not
    one of isolation.
        At least we are not isolated yet. In fact, I think we are
    much less isolated than we were.
        The point that we are trying to get across not only to the
    Libyans, but internationally is exactly the point that you
    touched on, Mr. Meeks, that we are not setting the bar too
    high, that we are asking for very specific actions which Libya
    can make, and one of the reasons that we chose to have the
    meeting in New York with the British and the Secretary General
    and to invite the Libyans to that meeting was exactly for this
    purpose, to lay down in clear and very specific fashion the
    actions that would meet these criteria on compensation, on
    renouncing terrorism, responsibility and cooperating with the
    trial, so that, on the one hand, it is clear that this is not a
    sliding yardstick that we intend to play with, but on the other
    hand, it is clear to the Libyans that it has real meaning and
    intention, there are real things there that they have to do.
        I think one of the first ones is the question of
    cooperation with the trial. I have great respect for the Scotch
    prosecutors who are going to conduct this trial, and I think
    they deserve every bit of backing to insist that if they say
    the Libyans need to hand over something for the trial they
    should get it, but if they get it, that is cooperation. So
    there are two sides to that, but I think the way we are
    proceeding is prudent, and I think it does take into account
    some of those concerns you raised.
        Mr. Meeks. My last question is, what road, if any--we just
    recently had the new prime minister of Israel visit us here and
    give us his vision for peace within the next 15 months. What
    role, if any, do you think that Libya and Mr. Qadhafi can play
    in that?
        Mr. Neumann. Mr. Qadhafi is saying he is becoming more
    supportive of Mr. Arafat and the Palestinian authority in the
    pursuit of peace. That statement is useful. I come back, of
    course, again and again to the fact that we have so many Libyan
    statements so recently about change that we need to measure
    them.
        There was, for instance, an article published in Alhayat,
    one of the well-read Arab newspapers out of London, in which it
    was reported that Libya was telling a number of the
    rejectionist groups that they had to stand down and support the
    peace process; and I can tell you that in our efforts to follow
    up on that that the Palestinian authority believes this story
    has some truth to it. We don't yet have our own evidence.
        If Libya is walking away from these groups or telling them
    to move in a different direction, and particularly if the
    Syrians are doing the same thing, as has been recently
    reported, that would be a pretty significant move, but these
    things must be checked out. They can't be assumed to be fact
    because one reads about them. So we need time, we need careful
    attention to see if the actions back up the words.
        Mr. Royce. Ms. Lee.
        Ms. Lee. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. This is a very
    informative hearing, and I appreciate being able to participate
    in it.
        Mr. Ambassador, I understand the notion that actions speak
    louder than words, and I certainly believe that we can't
    tolerate terrorism wherever it exists. Let me ask you a couple
    of questions with regard to our policy and our relationship
    with Libya. As Mr. Payne and Mr. Meeks have mentioned, Libya's
    role on the continent of Africa is an important focus.
        Colonel Qadhafi, has been supportive of many of the
    liberation movements in Africa, at the same time that the
    United States, for instance, had actually banned and indicated
    that the ANC in South Africa was illegal, was a terrorist
    organization. Very recently Mr. Mandela played a very positive
    role in the Pan Am bombings and, the handing over not the
    Lockerbie bombing suspects.
        How can Mr. Mandela be useful to the United States on the
    continent of Africa in making sure that the peace process is
    moved forward? I in listening to you today, I feel optimistic,
    and I also know that the U.S. could be an obstacle if we don't
    believe all of the conditions are being met. I want to make
    sure that the role that Libya is playing on the continent of
    Africa is not subverted or hindered by the U.S. not having
    full, normal relations.
        Mr. Neumann. I guess I would have to say that I hope it is
    not the case.
        I think there are two pieces of this. One is what is that
    role? It has been a very unhelpful role in the past. If it is
    now becoming a more helpful role, if it is now going to be a
    fact that they will really do things to support peace in Sierra
    Leone, that they will really stop adding weapons to the
    Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict and stop fishing about with the
    situation in the Sudan, I think we will become aware of that,
    and certainly those are actions we want to encourage.
        I think there is an interesting case with Mr. Mandela,
    although, because of the way we are organized geographically--
    and the State Department is a little different from the way the
    Committee is organized. I don't have primary jurisdiction for
    anything south of the Sahara, and my African bureau colleagues
    probably want to keep it that way, but we had a period where we
    found that Mr. Mandela's personal loyalty to the backing he had
    received from Mr. Qadhafi was a little irritating when we were
    trying to keep sanctions in place.
        Then you had a very active involvement by Mr. Mandela, as
    well as by the Saudis, which I recognized in my testimony and
    which was very helpful in reassuring the Libyans, as far as we
    understand what went on, that we did not have a secret agenda
    and that in fact it was in their interest to meet the
    international requirements to turn these people over.
        We tried to be very clear with both South Africa and Saudi
    Arabia throughout that period, look, these are the things we
    mean, this is what we will do and this is what we will not do,
    please don't go tell the Libyans that we are going to move
    faster or do things that we don't intend to do. We tried to be
    very careful that nobody in their own dealings, in their own
    desire to be helpful would spin anything beyond what we were
    prepared to do. So we were very up front with them.
        I don't know what they said to each other in those
    meetings, but I think--the reason I raise this is because I
    think part of the question will be us, how do we respond to
    Libyan actions. Part of the question will be, Libya, what
    actions do they take, will they really move forward on these
    things; but also part of it is going to be whether
    intermediaries like South Africa keep a clear eye on where we
    are and don't misperceive it--Libyans don't misperceive it,
    because you can get a lot of miscommunication out of things
    like that.
        We are looking at each other over a 20-year gap of enormous
    suspicion, and we have been through some of this before. I was
    reviewing the record when we got into this and there was a
    period where Libyans in the early 1980's were insisting on
    their desire, or late 1970's were insisting on their desire for
    better relations and wanting to buy things and do various
    things. The only problem is, they were planning on killing a
    couple of our Ambassadors at the very same time. We didn't
    think these were actions were really congruent with what they
    were saying.
        They are talking about a very different approach. You read
    some of the things that Colonel Qadhafi is saying in interviews
    about a new approach to Africa and a new situation that
    requires a new approach. They are very interesting. There are
    other things he says about the American hegemony and how we
    have to be protected against them that are a little more
    worrisome.
        It is not a full answer to your question, but it is as far
    as I can take it.
        Ms. Lee. Thank you very much for that answer. I appreciate
    it, and I am learning more about U.S. policy toward Libya, as I
    listen to you today. Let me ask you another question regarding
    the 1986 bombing that killed Colonel Qadhafi's daughter. Is the
    bombing a factor in the discussions, or in our efforts now, as
    we try to normalize relations between the United States and
    Libya?
        Mr. Neumann. It is not a factor in our diplomatic actions.
    Those are exactly where I have put them. It may be a
    psychological factor with Qadhafi. He talks about it in
    interviews, he talks about it with people he meets, but beyond
    that you would have to be a psychiatrist or a sociologist,
    rather than a diplomat, I think, to have a more dependable
    answer to your question, but we bombed in retaliation for his
    bombing us. There were casualties. We felt and do feel that
    that was legitimate action at the time in view of the attacks
    on us.
        Ms. Lee. Thank you very much.
        Mr. Payne. Would you yield a second? I was just curious
    about that, and the fact that you had asked that question, that
    it did seem to go a step beyond the retaliation. I think there
    perhaps should be retaliation, if someone strikes you in world
    politics and world conflicts you generally have to strike back
    or you will find yourself continually struck at, but it did
    seem to be a turn in policy where personal families were done.
    I recall Joshua N. Cuomo was attempted to be killed by the
    South African security forces when he was living in Zambia and
    they moved up and blew his house up; but he was not there,
    fortunately for him, and it was talked about as a new low in
    world leaders fighting each other in combat to go to the
    personal home and try to kill the family, and so I just thought
    that was sort of a turn in war to go at the individual and the
    family.
        Mr. Royce. If you could yield, though. It was my
    understanding that we lost a couple of servicemen and that this
    particular individual gave the order to kill our U.S.
    servicemen. The reason he was targeted was because we lost U.S.
    servicemen, who were assassinated in Berlin under his orders,
    and so when you have identified the source of who has given the
    order to assassinate U.S. troops, it would seem to me you are
    better served--I am afraid we are getting off of the topic
    here, but I am going to speak to this--you are better served by
    identifying the target who gave the order rather than bombing
    his people. It doesn't make a lot of sense to try to identify
    anyone other than the individual who gave the order for the
    assassination.
        From my standpoint, I happened to visit the White House. I
    was in the State Senate, but I remember speaking to President
    Reagan on that day that we undertook that bombing, and I will
    say that it didn't seem to be a nonsequitur to me. There was a
    direct correlation. He gave the order to kill U.S. troops, and
    there was a countermanding order as a deterrent in the future
    to anyone else who would try to do that.
        Mr. Payne. I agree and I feel the same way you feel about
    the loss of our servicemen.
        There has been war since the Crusades, 1400's. Someone
    gives--the leader, heads of state give commands to do actions,
    and it doesn't make any head of state right by doing it, but my
    point was that in war you fight wars, you fight against armies
    and you do bomb cities, as was done in World War II, Hiroshima,
    and Nagasaki, but to go after a family, that is my--I oppose
    war in general, period, but the fact remains that it was not
    the first time that there were casualties of a country, that
    did not go after the immediate family of that country.
        That is my whole point, and I feel the same way about the
    loss of our soldiers also, so don't get me wrong there. I was
    just talking about the manner in which you prosecute a war. War
    is bad, but for it to be prosecuted by going to the home, the
    White House of the head of that nation, I just wouldn't want to
    see that happen in wars in the future in our country. If we
    give a command to attack someone I wouldn't want anyone to go
    to the White House, whoever is in the White House, to bomb it.
        Mr. Royce. I thank you, and I thank the Ambassador for his
    testimony here today. Now we will go to the next panel at this
    time. Thank you, Ambassador Neumann.
        Mr. Neumann. Thank you for giving me the opportunity.
        Mr. Royce. We will ask our second panel to take their seats
    at this time.
        I will mention to our witnesses that Members of the
    Committee have your statements. We appreciate your coming so
    far to testify. We have people from all over the United States
    that have come today for this testimony. We thank you. We are
    going to ask you, since we have your original testimony and
    have read that to summarize your testimony. We are going to
    hold you to 5 minutes for your original statement.
        I will briefly introduce our panel. Dr. Ray Takeyh is a
    Soref Research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East
    Policy. He obtained his Ph.D. in Modern History from Oxford. He
    has authored numerous articles in prominent journals and
    newspapers and is the author of a forthcoming book, The Origins
    of the Eisenhower Doctrine: The United States, Britain, and
    Nasser's Egypt.
        Dr. Joseph Sinai is a specialist on international security
    issues, particularly the military capability of developing
    world states, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
    and low-intensity conflict. He has published several articles
    about Libya's weapons of mass destruction, and his articles
    range from the Washington Post to Jane's Intelligence Review.
    He is currently a consultant to the International Security
    Division of Analytic Services, Incorporated.
        Mr. Omar Turbi is a Libyan-American born in Derna, Libya.
    He is a founding Member of the Libyan Human Rights Commission,
    a nonpolitical human rights organization. He is also an advisor
    to the American Arab antidiscrimination Committee, the largest
    Arab-American grass-roots organization, and he has done work
    with the World Conference on Human Rights. Mr. Turbi holds
    degrees in engineering and international relations and
    business.
        Dr. Mansour El-Kikhia is an Associate Professor of
    Political Science at the University of Texas in San Antonio. He
    has written exclusively on Libya, and he is author of Libya's
    Qadhafi: The Politics of Contradiction.
        We welcome you to the Subcommittee and look forward to your
    remarks, but again, please do that within the timeframe of 5
    minutes.
        Mr. Royce. We will start with Dr. Ray Takeyh.

      STATEMENTS OF DR. RAY TAKEYH, SOREF FELLOW, THE WASHINGTON
                     INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY

        Mr. Takeyh. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for inviting me today,
    and I will keep my comments as short as possible.
        As the Members of the Committee know, Mu'ammar Qadhafi has
    recently proclaimed his affinity for pan-Africanism and has
    seemingly ushered in a new era in Libya's foreign policy. In
    the recent months, Colonel Qadhafi has emerged as a mediator of
    various African crises and has held a series of high-level
    discussions with a variety of African leaders. The critical
    question is whether this is a new era and whether Qadhafi's
    policy will contribute to regional stability. After decades of
    professing Arabism, Qadhafi's African orientation, is it
    genuine or not?
        Libya's policy toward continental Africa can be, I think,
    conveniently delineated in two specific stages, the
    revolutionary stage and the more pragmatic one. The 1970's and
    1980's can be viewed as the height of Libya's revolutionary
    activism as Qadhafi sought to undermine a series of regimes
    that he found ideologically objectionable. In the 1990's,
    Qadhafi's international isolation has induced a more pragmatic
    policy toward the continent. A more detailed survey, a
    relatively more detailed survey of Qadhafi's approach toward
    Africa would reveal that whatever posture the colonel embraces,
    he has long perceived African and Third World interests as best
    served through a recession of Western power.
        Libya's policy in the 1970's reflected the primacy of
    ideology in Qadhafi's calculation. Soon after coming to power
    he became an important source of opposition to conservative
    African regimes, but also generously supported liberation
    movements in South Africa, Rhodesia and Angola. At a second and
    complementary level, Libya emerged at that time as an important
    supporter of Islamism through establishment of the Jihad Fund
    and Islamic Legions. The essence of Qadhafi's policy in the
    1970's was to assist all forces that sought to destabilize pro-
    Western regimes and foster a new alignment in Africa.
        The 1980's, the aggressive nature of Libya's policy was
    denoted by its intervention in Chad and continuous interference
    in internal affairs of sovereign countries. This caused much
    disenchantment throughout Africa. In the meantime, Libya's
    propagation of Islam exacerbated internal religious divisions
    in states which are religiously diverse, such as Sudan. Even
    Libya's foreign aid became a source of contention as it arrived
    with ample strings and reflecting Tripoli's determination to
    gain access to natural resources of other states.
        In the 1990's, Qadhafi has encountered enormous difficulty.
    The decline of the petroleum market has crystallized Libya's
    structural economic problems. On the international level, Libya
    found itself under a debilitating sanctions regime and
    international ostracism arising from the 1988 Lockerbie affair.
    The confluence of these factors led Qadhafi to embark on
    reorientation of his policy and rebuild his base among the
    nonaligned countries, particularly African. A more chastened
    Qadhafi departed Chad and intimated to the OAU his readiness to
    accept rules of conduct. In turn, the OAU was the first
    regional organization to defy the sanctions, and President
    Nelson Mandela took the lead in resolving the Lockerbie crisis
    and lifting sanctions.
        The post-Lockerbie period has witnessed a continuation of
    Libya's pragmatic diplomacy. Qadhafi, as mentioned, has emerged
    as a leading mediator of the Great Lakes crisis and of course
    the conflict in the Horn of Africa. The colonel brokered the
    accord leading to the departure of Chadian forces from Congo
    and an apparent reconciliation between Congo and Uganda.
        Qadhafi has also been instrumental in attempting to
    convince the many internal factions in Congo to resume
    discussions and arrive at some sort of reconciliation. Although
    less successful in resolving difficulties between Ethiopia and
    Eritrea, Qadhafi has attempted to facilitate negotiations
    leading to a compromise accord. The critical question is
    whether Qadhafi has abandoned his revolutionary radicalism and
    ceased basing his policy on uncompromising ideological
    precepts.
        The most plausible explanation for Qadhafi's activism in
    Africa is that it is part of a comprehensive diplomatic
    initiative that encompasses both Africa and the Arab realms.
    The basis of this new diplomacy may still the Lockerbie affair.
    Despite Qadhafi's feigned indifference to the trial, Lockerbie
    does loom large in his calculations.
        It is important to stress, as Ambassador Neumann did, that
    the arrest of the two suspects does not end the Lockerbie
    issue, as ebbs and flows of the trial can still affect the
    sanctions regime. The United States and international community
    have refused to permanently lift the sanctions, which implies
    that implicating evidence arising from a trial or a potential
    conviction of the suspects could still expose Libya to an even
    more stringent sanctions regime.
        In any potential conflict with the United States, Qadhafi
    will require the aid of the African states and the support of
    OAU. At any rate, the rehabilitation of Libya's image on the
    continent and construction of alliances buttressed by aid could
    prevent Libya from being isolated, should the Lockerbie crisis
    resurface.
        At a second level, Qadhafi may be attempting to exploit the
    crisis to further his strategic goals; certainly the coalition
    of states, Angola, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Namibia, that support
    Kabila's regime in Congo have close relations with Libya. In
    the meantime, Qadhafi's relationship with Kabila goes back to
    the 1980's, when he was one of the few states to support his
    obscure rebellion. Certainly Kabila in power is consistent with
    Qadhafi's ideological and strategic designs, and it gives him a
    base in central Africa and an important ally in the OAU. In the
    meantime, the Horn of Africa has been the scene of competition
    by many states, including Egypt. A resurrected Libya may view
    its diplomatic initiatives as a means of asserting its
    influence in a region that is admittedly critical to security.
        It is undeniable that Libya in the post-Lockerbie period
    has played a constructive role in Africa. To escape his
    international isolation, Qadhafi has embarked on certain
    pragmatic shifts of power. However, it is too soon to accept
    the rhetoric of mediation as evidence of a fundamental Libyan
    reorientation. Qadhafi is an ideology who genuinely believes in
    the applicability of his ideas to the Third World. More than
    any other leader, Qadhafi has not made the transition from a
    revolutionary to a statesman. Although capable of much
    alteration, Qadhafi's historical conduct has to be viewed as
    part of his record, and it is still unclear to determine
    whether Libya has dispensed with its radical heritage and
    assumed a responsible position in the community of nations, but
    we should approach Libya with a more open mind, assume the
    possibility of Libya beginning to move in a positive direction
    and acknowledge those steps.
        Thank you very much.
        [The prepared statement of Mr. Takeyh appears in the
    appendix.]
        Mr. Royce. We now go to Dr. Sinai. We do have your
    testimony, so if you will, please abbreviate it to 5 minutes.
    Go ahead, sir

     STATEMENT OF JOSHUA SINAI, CONSULTANT, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
                   DIVISION, ANALYTIC SERVICES, INC.

        Mr. Sinai. Thank you very much for providing me an
    opportunity to address the Subcommittee on the subject of
    Libya's weapons of mass destruction program. This a topic that
    unfortunately has received very little attention in the media,
    public policy and academic communities, but which I believe
    deserves close scrutiny because Libya has one of the most
    ambitious chemical and biological weapons programs in the Third
    World.
        Libya is on the verge of succeeding in developing a weapons
    of mass destruction capability in the form of chemical and
    biological weaponry and the ballistic missiles to deliver them.
    The $25 billion Great Man-Made River Project, massive network
    of underground pipes are reportedly connected to some of the
    chemical and biological facilities, particularly the Tarhuna
    chemical weapons facility.
        However, Libya's chemical and biological weapons program
    has received very little international attention, while much
    attention has been paid to the large-scale chemical and
    biological programs of Iran and Iraq and an alleged terrorist
    group-affiliated chemical weapons plant in Sudan. In fact,
    according to published accounts, Iraq has sent several
    contingents of scientists and technicians to work at Libyan
    chemical and biological weapons facilities, either to assist in
    accelerating Tripoli's CBW Program or to evade international
    inspection of its own CBW facilities.
        As a result of these developments, while Libya is
    threatening to become a proliferator of chemical and biological
    weaponry, it is also emerging as a facilitator for other rogue
    states' CBW Programs. In the area of developing a nuclear
    weapons capability, or long-range ballistic missiles, however,
    the Libyans have not been as successful in CBW because of post-
    Pan Am 103 international nonproliferation sanctions and a lack
    of adequate financial or indigenous resources or manpower
    expertise.
        It is particularly significant today to investigate the
    actual threat potential posed by Libya's chemical and
    biological weapons program in light of several recent
    developments that appear to indicate a willingness by Libya to
    reenter the international community as a peaceful nation. At
    the same time, however, there have also been several news
    reports about impending deals by Libya to acquire a nuclear
    reactor from Russia and the latest No Dong ballistic missile
    from North Korea, which would indicate that it has no intention
    of reducing its efforts to construct an ambitious weapons of
    mass destruction program.
        There is a great need to investigate and assess the extent
    of the progress made by Libya's chemical and biological weapons
    program, including the nature of Libyan leader Mu'ammar
    Qadhafi's motivation in developing such capability. Such an
    understanding is necessary in order to formulate effective
    countermeasures and policies.
        Because of time restrictions, I am speeding through my
    remarks.
        The Libyan biological weapon program is reportedly in the
    early stages of research and development primarily because the
    country lacks an adequate scientific and technical base.
    However, it is reported to be on the verge of developing an
    indigenous biological weapons capability.
        Libya's chemical weapons program is considered to be its
    most successful WMD effort. Its chemical weapons capabilities
    are concentrated in the Rabta and Tarhuna plants and include a
    stockpile of up to 100 tons of chemical agents.
        Tarhuna is the most significant chemical weapons facility
    in Libya, and unfortunately, very little has been published
    about it in the open press. Libya's efforts to acquire chemical
    and biological weapons are matched with an ambitious program to
    acquire or indigenously develop long-range ballistic missiles
    with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers.
        As I have stated in my presentation, there are a number of
    areas in Libya's weapons of mass destruction program that
    require close international scrutiny.
        Thank you.
        Mr. Royce. Thank you very much, Doctor.
        [The prepared statement of Dr. Sinai appears in the
    appendix.]
        Mr. Royce. Dr. El-Kikhia.

      STATEMENT OF EL-KIKHIA, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF
                          TEXAS AT SAN ANTONIO

        Mr. El-Kikhia. Yes. Thank you very much for inviting me to
    speak before you today. If I may, I would not like to give a
    summary of my paper. You already have it, so I want to talk
    about something else, if possible, and I want to discuss just a
    few things in the 5 minutes that I have of my impression of
    what Mr. Neumann said in the conversation between you and him.
        I really was impressed, first of all, by what Mr. Payne
    said, and Mr. Meeks said as well. They made excellent points.
    First of all, your point is quite right and I think that
    perhaps it is a bit too early to even discuss the future of
    U.S. relations on the one hand, because we don't have all the
    facts.
        The second point, Mr. Meeks says that I think you are very
    right there, too, because the country that is being isolated is
    the United States, not Libya. There was an embargo on Libya for
    quite some time, but the majority of the embargo was dealing
    with air travel. Libya could still buy stuff on the market. Who
    benefited from this? The truth of who benefited: our allies.
    The Germans were still selling to him, the Italians were
    selling to him, even the British were selling him goods,
    perhaps not certain commodities that the embargo restricted,
    but on the other hand, it was an open market. True, the people
    who suffered most were Libyans because they could only travel
    through Egypt and Tunisia, and those two countries boomed as
    well.
        As far as European business, European business flourished
    within Libya itself. American companies were excluded, of
    course. Initially, there were a number of loopholes during the
    Bush administration which were closed when Mr. Clinton came to
    power, shutting out American companies from dealing in Libya,
    but Europeans filled the gap very quickly. The Man-Made River
    that my colleague talks about over here was constructed by a
    Korean company.
        Let me put some things in perspective. First of all, we are
    talking about a country that has less than 5 million people
    with an annual income less than what Americans spend on pet
    food annually. Let us look at things in the correct shape.
        Libya's intervention in Africa is not really due to Libya's
    strength in Africa as much as it is due to American weakness
    there. We have, until now, left the arena open for any country
    to engage in African affairs. We have left Africa out of our
    foreign policy. I was hoping that when Mr. Anthony Lake, the
    National Security Advisor for Mr. Clinton, as an Africanist,
    would in fact be more involved in Africa; but unfortunately,
    no, America was not involved in Africa. We have thus far relied
    on two allies, on the French and the British, saying this is
    their sphere of influence, forgetting that the Africans dislike
    precisely those two countries.
        When we talk about how come Qadhafi helped support these
    terrorist movements, or which we call ``terrorist movements''--
    indeed, we once considered the ANC as a terrorist
    organization--but when we have to look seriously, we supported
    a dictator like Mobutu Sese Seko that led to cleptomanic regime
    for so many years, and then we are surprised that somebody else
    would support revolution against Mobutu. We shouldn't be. So we
    have left, in fact, that vacuum for other countries to fill in
    Africa.
        Libya is a small country. Its military is antiquated. It
    still uses Soviet weapons of 1970's vintage, and those weapons
    have demonstrated their ability in the Gulf War. Even far more
    sophisticated weapons could not stand up to America's might or
    European might. So let us put things in context.
        Libya is not a country that is going to destroy the world.
    Its income is limited. Its population is limited. Its leader
    has fancy ideas and lots of dreams, but after all, I think they
    are merely dreams. If America wants to put an end to Qadhafi in
    Africa, then it must pay attention to Africa because the
    continent is poor, and any little bit of funding which Qadhafi
    has--and he only has a little bit of funding--can make a very,
    very big difference.
        Let me stop here and perhaps we can talk a little bit more
    about that.
        Mr. Royce. We thank you, Doctor.
        [The prepared statement of Dr. El-Kikhia appears in the
    appendix.]
        Mr. Royce. Mr. Turbi.

        STATEMENT OF A OMAR TURBI, LIBYAN AMERICAN HUMAN RIGHTS
                                ACTIVIST

        Mr. Turbi. Thank you very much. Mr. Chairman. I will be
    delivering a brief statement to my prepared statement. I am
    quite honored to have the opportunity to appear before your
    distinguished Committee.
        I am really proud to be a Libyan American, and believe me,
    I have every reason to be. I started a business about 15 years
    ago with absolutely no money. Today, I do business in more than
    50 countries around the world, thanks to the land of
    opportunity, freedom and democracy.
        Over 10 days ago I took my three boys, who are behind me
    here, to the Women'S World Cup, and I am sure we all watched
    it, enjoyed it immensely; and throughout the game I felt and
    was engulfed with an immense emotional feeling that brought
    tears to my eyes. There was a large group of Chinese Americans
    sitting not too far away from us, waving the Chinese flag and
    supporting their native team, and every time they waved the
    flag, my little boys, one who is only 8 years old, would say,
    ``Dad, yell `democracy' to those Chinese people. Yell
    'democracy' to those Chinese people.'' I hope someday I will
    see a Libyan and an American team under the same setting. I
    hope someday that we can do that.
        I am truly happy to have and take part in these hearings as
    an advocate of normalizing our relationship with the Libyan
    regime and the Libyan people through constructive engagements.
    The handing over of the two Libyan suspects and suspension of
    sanctions are positive steps toward that goal.
        American history would remind all of us here that we
    engaged the Libyans, as a matter of fact, as early as the year
    1801. The United States Treasury then was paying as much as
    one-fifth of its annual revenue to Tripoli and the Barbary
    Coast pirate states as ransom for captured American officials
    and for the safe passage of American ships in the
    Mediterranean.
        Another piece of the American Libyan history is the dress
    uniform sword carried by our Marine officers today and its
    Libyan origins. I am also reminded every time I hear the Marine
    march line singing ``From the Halls of Montezuma to the Shores
    of Tripoli.''.
        Ladies and gentlemen, such historical ties between
    Americans and Libyans spanning 200 years must set the tone for
    a constructive engagement. Our dialogue with China resulted in
    a flourishing business relationship, other examples like
    Vietnam, Cambodia, and South Africa. Let us not forget some of
    the best trading partners today were our enemies in World War
    II, namely, Mussolini-Italy, Japan, and Germany.
        Ladies and gentlemen, U.N. sanctions and embargoes on Libya
    imposed as far back as 1981 crippled the economic structure and
    social fabric of the Libyan people, degraded the quality of
    life and exasperated human rights efforts.
        I would call for an immediate lifting of U.N. sanctions and
    the gradual--and I emphasize the word ``gradual''--move toward
    the eventual total normalization of relations with the Libyan
    regime. This would be in the interest of the American and
    Libyan people.
        We must also pay attention to this. A policy based on
    enlightened self-interest is far superior to one driven by
    strictly economic or political interests alone. Let our foreign
    policy be consistent with American values. The requirements for
    civil society must supersede narrowly defined endeavors.
        The Libyan people, ladies and gentlemen, are presently in a
    quandary, and I really mean it. On the one hand, they suffered
    and are barely recovering under crippling U.N. sanctions that
    lasted nearly 10 years, while at the same time, they are
    oppressed by a brutal regime which has exhibited and continues
    to exhibit total disregard for human dignity. Freedom of
    speech, expression and assembly are nonexistent, and I am very
    disappointed that nobody here has talked about human rights
    issues in Libya so far.
        To move forward with full normalization and without regard
    to the human rights dimension would be un-American. Lip service
    alone will not do, and I emphasize that. We must set specific
    conditions prior to total normalization that should include the
    immediate release of all conscience and political prisoners;
    the establishment of a fact-finding committee to visit with
    prisoners; and the call for gradual implementation of
    democratic reforms. It is in the best interest of America and
    the Libyan people to call on the Libyan regime with such
    conditions now. If we do not aggressively pursue these goals at
    this time, the Libyan regime will assume that we acquiesce its
    ill treatment of its people, and that would be a tragedy.
        Thank you.
        Mr. Royce. We will take note.
        [The prepared statement of Mr. Turbi appears in the
    appendix.]
        Mr. Royce. We have been joined by three of our colleagues:
    Mr. Campbell of California, Mr. Tancredo of Colorado, and Mr.
    Chabot of Ohio, and I want to thank all of our four witnesses
    for making the trip out here and for their statements.
        At this time, I will ask a couple of questions Dr. Takeyh,
    you mentioned the peace efforts in the Democratic Republic of
    Congo. Libya has offered peacekeepers to this conflict. Given
    the recently signed Congo peace agreement, is it likely that
    Libya will have a future role in the Congo?
        Mr. Takeyh. I think, to take the point of Dr. El-Kikhia, it
    is important not to exaggerate. Libya did send 60 to 70
    peacekeepers to Uganda, and they have not left their hotel room
    yet. It is possible that Libya will have a role in the
    peacekeeping missions, but that depends to an extent on
    American consent and acquiescence, and thus far, the United
    States has intimated that it will not accept Libyan
    participation in such multilateral efforts, but it is unlikely
    that Libya can resolve the Congo crisis on its own. It is
    certainly unlikely Libya can exacerbate it. The crisis in
    central Africa is enormously complex, and it reflects a
    confluence of factors, institutional decay, the decomposition
    of state in Congo.
        Libya can potentially play a marginally constructive role,
    but not a substantial role in any efforts in Congo, and those
    efforts are being spearheaded by the South African development
    community, led by Zambia and, of course, South Africa itself.
    Libya can be an adjunct to those efforts and can potentially
    have a useful role, but not a substantial or a negative or a
    positive.
        Mr. Royce. Thank you, Doctor.
        Mr. Turbi, in your testimony you advocate lifting sanctions
    on Libya and gradually normalizing diplomatic relations with
    Libya, with this normalization basically being pegged to the
    advancement of human rights in Libya.
        What if Libya does not make progress? Would this be a
    reason to freeze any movement toward normalization, and could
    you maybe just tell us a little more in terms of your
    suggestion--of how the State Department might tie this to
    advancement of human rights?
        Mr. Turbi. I think, having listened to the Honorable
    Ambassador Neumann earlier on speak of the limited engagement
    that the U.S. Administration has had with Libya, I am somewhat
    disappointed in the fact that we all live on a small planet. A
    lot of enemies talk to each other, and I advocate the
    following: that we must have direct human and constructive
    contact with the Libyan regime, irregardless of how bad we
    think they might be.
        I must caution that in promoting anything that we want to
    promote with the Libyan regime is to make sure that we are not
    viewed by the regime that are in pursuit of toppling the
    regime, either covertly or overtly. I think if we move in a
    deliberate and calculated manner on those fronts--and in the
    process, we must promote democracy and human rights--there is
    no reason to freeze the relationship at any point in time.
        Mr. Royce. I see. I will turn to our ranking member. We are
    going to allow him to ask some questions here because I think a
    vote is almost upon us.
        Mr. Payne.
        Mr. Payne. Thank you very much.
        I listened to Dr. Sinai when you talked about the ability
    of chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction that Libya
    has, and one of the things that strikes me is that it seems, as
    we move forward in time, that many countries seem like they are
    going to be able to acquire the ability--North Korea, China,
    Pakistan, India, and so forth--and I don't know if any of you
    might want to tackle it. Since it seems like it is going to be
    impossible to prevent the manufacture or the development, with
    technology and people, it even goes beyond Libya, what do you
    think we ought to be doing as a nation that is concerned about
    mass destruction or rogue states?
        Do you think we should try to go in and destroy places that
    have it? Do you think that there ought to be an opportunity to
    rework a world treaty to try to work toward elimination of
    them? Because you are going to find some little country down in
    Southeast Asia that is going to be able to work it out pretty
    soon also.
        You all are Ph.D.'s, so maybe you can tell us old
    congressmen something here.
        Mr. Sinai. You have raised some very important issues which
    I agree with. There are a number of steps that can be taken,
    short of a military campaign. I think the first step is a
    public diplomacy effort by the West to highlight and to focus
    on Libya's chemical and biological weapons program. Also, an
    effort by journalists, and investigative journalists, to try to
    uncover what is really going on.
        Second and another step might be for the United Nations
    Security Council to dispatch an inspection team to Libya to
    verify the country's compliance on this issue, and I think
    that, because Libya appears to be willing to rejoin the
    international community as a peaceful nation, that now might be
    an appropriate time to press on the Security Council to
    establish such a mission.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. I think you are going around to the issue of
    sovereignty. You cannot impose it upon Libya, of you cannot
    impose it upon Egypt or Israel or Turkey or somebody else. I
    mean, basically the Congressman is quite right in this thing,
    do we want to go the international route, and in the
    international route, you might have something like the
    nonproliferation treaty, where you have 130, 140 countries
    signing it, but then it takes effort to enact into law. But it
    seems difficult to me to say, we want you to open up so we can
    inspect; and the one next door, who has the same thing--say,
    You are OK with us, but you are not OK with us. That becomes
    very difficult indeed.
        Mr. Sinai. But not every country has been involved in
    international terrorism to the extent that Libya has. Until
    recently, Libya harbored terrorists. It has terrorist camps. It
    hasn't been directly involved in terrorist activities in the
    1990's, but it has a very significant past history in this
    area.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. I agree with you. From that point, I agree
    with you.
        Mr. Sinai. Qadhafi has also assassinated rivals.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. I have no love for Qadhafi, don't get me
    wrong, but what you must understand is that one man's terrorist
    is another man's freedom fighter. Some countries in the world
    agree with Qadhafi. Others do not agree with Qadhafi, but you
    can't apply one rule against Qadhafi and another to somebody
    else. The international system will not allow you to do that.
        Mr. Royce. There is something called international law, but
    we will go to Mr. Tancredo for his question.
        Mr. Tancredo. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have two actually,
    if we have time for them.
        I take by the comments earlier that--Dr. El-Kikhia, that
    you may not think it would be productive to explore the
    possibilities that may develop if Mr. Qadhafi is no longer on
    the scene. So you may not wish to respond to this, but if
    anyone else on the panel has some ideas about what might be the
    future, what we might be looking at in terms of a governmental
    structure in Libya and the individuals, more specifically the
    individuals who might rise to that challenge if Mr. Qadhafi
    were gone, I would certainly love to hear what that might be.
    That is my first question. So anybody who has some ideas along
    those lines let me know.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. I will be the first to be happy to see Mr.
    Qadhafi go out of power. He has been there for 30 years and my
    colleague here Mr. Turbi is quite right, no one suffered more
    on under Qadhafi's rule like the Libyans. All Libyans have
    suffered. The standard of living in Libya has declined
    tremendously since 1970. Libyan income has declined by 3
    percent every year since then. If anyone has to complain it is
    the Libyans. They look forward to seeing the end of Qadhafi.
        Mr. Tancredo. Dr. El-Kikhia, don't get me wrong. I was
    referring to a statement you made something about, I think it
    was the question posed to the Ambassador earlier and you said,
    in terms of the future we just don't know. So I didn't think
    you had an opinion but if you have it, I would like to hear it.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. American-Libyan relationship in the future I
    think is too early to determine what it is going to be like. We
    don't know what Qadhafi does. He is so idiosyncratic, so
    incremental, but Mr. Turbi is quite right in the sense that it
    is better to establish a relationship, even with Qadhafi, to
    change some of his policies, even though indirectly, than not
    to have a relationship with him at all.
        Mr. Tancredo. We don't have time to really go into that
    part. I still want to know, who do you think might succeed him
    and what will it look like?
        Mr. Takeyh. In terms of succession in Libya, succession in
    Libya is most difficult to decipher because for long Libya has
    not had a coherent state structure. The most likely successors
    to Qadhafi are likely to be members within the armed forces
    themselves. It is unlikely that the post-Qadhafi Libya will
    move toward a parliamentary democratic society. Now, Dr. El-
    Kikhia's book has outlined numerous personalities, and most of
    us rely on his analysis on those names and personalities he
    has.
        Mr. Tancredo. I just better get the book.
        Mr. Takeyh. It is likely to be members within the armed
    forces.
        Mr. Tancredo. No significant change in direction?
        Mr. Takeyh. That is just it. There are likely to be some
    significant changes. It is unlikely the members within the
    Libyan armed forces are going to have as grandiose aspirations
    as Qadhafi. They are likely to remain concentrated to internal
    challenges and immediate challenges in the Maghreb, but they
    are likely to be involved in civil wars in the Philippines or
    Argentina and so on. So post-Qadhafi regime is likely to be a
    regime more concerned with its immediate internal affairs and
    immediate regional neighbors, Maghreb.
        Mr. Turbi. From the perspective of hoping that we might
    have democracy in Libya, Libya did experience democracy in the
    past during the King Idris reign when it had a specific
    constitution that was drafted and given to Libya to use by the
    United Nations and so forth, and then during the Qadhafi era,
    there has only been a nonconventional way of running things in
    the country.
        I have also read Mr. Kikhia's book, too. He describes it as
    being a controlled chaos in some ways. It is very hard to
    determine any place in the world that does not have any
    conventional constitution to either go in a heartbeat or stay
    for a long time. So the make-up of the Libyan people as a whole
    has many democratic elements in it, inside or outside.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. One more thing to add to your point. You
    see, you must understand even the present system that Qadhafi
    has set up, although I do call it controlled chaos, should it
    work, I think it would be very democratic; but the problem is
    he won't let it work because he has to control it. It is very
    difficult when you deal with regimes like this because they are
    idiosyncratic regimes, and events rotate around them.
        Mr. Tancredo. Thank you very much.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. The same question comes back to Castro. When
    Castro is gone, what kind of system are we going to have in
    Cuba?
        Mr. Tancredo. But you have a Ph.D.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. I do, but I am missing something, a fortune
    ball.
        Mr. Royce. We have, I think, with us the Libyan desk
    officer. Is he here?
        She is here. Make sure the notes that you take here from
    the panelists are given to the Ambassador. We would like him to
    follow the dialogue and the discussion of the Committee. You
    will do that for us, right?
        Thank you very much. We will follow up on that.
        Mr. Meeks.
        Mr. Meeks. I will stay with that topic that we have been
    talking about, diplomacy, talking, regime after Qadhafi.
        I would imagine that within the country of Libya there are
    negative viewpoints of some of the Western nations,
    particularly the United States; and if, in fact, something
    happened to Qadhafi and we had not improved our relationships
    with that, I would imagine that that kind of stereotypical
    situation would continue.
        Let me tell you where I am going. I agree with you. I
    recently went to Cuba, for example, and said, what would happen
    after Castro left? I saw every country there, but America; and
    I thought that if America was there, it would make all the
    difference to the people, forget Castro.
        The deal is with reference to how do we benefit the people
    because the people-to-people contact is what is most important.
    So for me, what I am trying to decide, how do we get to the
    point where we can talk?
        You know we talked about weapons, if I was a small country
    and I had people around me that had some weapons, that I am
    going to say, I want some also because I've got to protect
    myself. That is what happens, everybody around wants and no one
    talks to one another, and you just have the buildup of weapons.
        It might be kind of elementary, but for me, if I was
    walking down the street and somebody came up to me with a
    stick, I am not going to try to fight without a stick, I am
    going to pick something up, so I can defend myself, and I think
    that is what is happening in that whole region, and we have got
    to look for some kind of way to turn that around.
        So I guess my question is, I know that we have got to look
    at what Libya has done, particularly with reference to
    terrorism, but because--like Great Britain made a great step
    and others are making steps and recently, you can tell me what
    it means with the OAU. I know that Mr. Qadhafi attended the OAU
    meeting. In fact, he is going to host one in September. What
    does that mean? Is that something that we can get involved in,
    also with the OAU maybe, so that we can through that
    organization begin to evolve some better diplomatic relations?
        Mr. El-Kikhia. Congressman, I think as whole it has
    received much of the support from Africa and some other
    countries at least because of one issue. I think it is the
    issue of proportionality. I think there is, even though not
    overtly, but covertly, there is an understanding among many of
    these states that if I aim at you with a gun, you don't aim at
    me with a nuclear bomb, OK? It is understandable, but it is
    regrettable and maybe Libya is responsible for the Pan Am
    crisis.
        Hearing Mr. Neumann, Ambassador Neumann, and the three
    points he made--cease terrorism, be responsible with actions of
    officials, cooperate with the trial and pay compensation. When
    you put it like this, I think there should be an addendum over
    here, if those people are found guilty. I mean, unless we have
    to assume the French way of being guilty until proven innocent,
    but I think we operate under the assumption of innocent until
    proven guilty.
        I think the support that Qadhafi and Libya got throughout
    Africa and the Middle East is really because of the issue of
    proportionality that you cannot punish a people for 10 years,
    because of an incident somebody did. There has to be an issue
    of proportionality over here, and listen, 3 years ago Qadhafi
    made the same proposal of not delivering those two individuals
    to either Britain or the United States, but some other neutral
    country; and we refused that, we refused precisely the same
    proposal? He made it a long time ago, but we refused that.
        But I think the American administration right now
    understands, as well as the British, that if they did not go
    along with Qadhafi, others will start breaking the embargo
    because, again, the issue of proportionality. The punishment
    has to fit the crime somehow, and I think this support came
    precisely from the OAU and other African countries.
        Mr. Royce. We are out of time. We are going to go to Mr.
    Chabot of Ohio.
        Mr. Chabot. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will address my
    question to any of the panel members that would like to pick up
    on any one of the questions I will ask and be happy to hear
    from you, and if you covered this in testimony that I might not
    have been here for, I apologize.
        Have we heard anything about Qadhafi's health at this
    point? What kind of condition is he in right now? What is the
    extent of the domestic opposition to the Qadhafi regime? What
    do we know about the reported assassination attempts on Qadhafi
    over the last several years? Is there any serious threat to the
    Qadhafi rule?
        Mr. Takeyh. Qadhafi is only 57 years old. I mean, in a
    region where people rule to considerably older than that, he is
    more likely than not to remain in power. Qadhafi's regime has
    been plagued by internal disturbances and difficulties. It is
    very difficult to get reliable information, but there seems to
    have been an assassination attempt about 2 years ago in which
    he was injured reportedly because his bodyguards fell on him.
        It is hard to say whether there is a credible internal
    opposition to Qadhafi. He has been very successful in
    neutralizing that, and he has for the past 30 years survived
    numerous coups and has instituted elaborate security measures
    which have weakened the armed forces; and that weakness of the
    armed forces was particularly exhibited in Chad when the
    members of the military unit could not speak to each other
    without going through central authority.
        I would say more likely than not, Qadhafi will remain in
    power, and the logical path to improvement or dealing with
    Libya is the assumption that Qadhafi will remain in power as
    opposed to start holding relations in abeyance until there is a
    post-Qadhafi regime. That is entirely speculative.
        Mr. Chabot. Does anybody else want to add anything else to
    it?
        Mr. El-Kikhia. I think you bring up a very good point, too.
    Qadhafi is so obsessed with security he doesn't sleep in the
    same place twice. The pressure is phenomenal on him. There have
    been a number of attempts I think 6 months ago there was an
    attempted coup against him, and actually a grenade was thrown
    at him, but it didn't explode. It did not explode at all.
        He is young. He is still young. He is in his fifties, and
    there is no reason why he can't go on until his eighties.
        You see, more important, I call it controlled chaos because
    you have a situation where he forestalls these coups from
    taking place. I will give you a simple example in the military.
        Rank doesn't really mean too much. You can be a general in
    the military, you can be a colonel, but if you are not a member
    of the revolutionary committee, a member in the revolutionary
    committee who is a private may give you an order. So, you see,
    you would like to put some order to disorder based on your own
    experience within a society where there is rank and file and
    there is a hierarchy of things. In Libya, things don't work
    that way. They don't work that way at all.
        Mr. Sinai. I would like to make one observation about that.
    Qadhafi has transformed the armed forces and has abolished the
    rank of general. That is why he is known as Colonel Qadhafi.
        Mr. Chabot. Dr. Sinai, let me ask you one question, too.
    You said something about the potential of a U.S. or, excuse me,
    an inspection team of some sort because of the weapons of mass
    destruction program, et cetera. What makes you think that that
    would be any more successful than Iraq, where it seems like the
    inspectors went in the front door and the trucks are loading up
    and going out the back door? I don't feel particularly
    confident that we were making the progress that maybe the
    public was led to think we were making there.
        Would you like to comment on that?
        Mr. Sinai. One reason it may be more effective is that
    Qadhafi appears to be willing to rejoin the international
    community as a peaceful nation. This would be one test to
    validate the sincerity of his commitment.
        Mr. Chabot. Thank you. I yield back the balance of my time.
        Mr. Royce. Mr. Campbell.
        Mr. Campbell. Mr. Chairman, thank you. I have a question
    that is for any member of the panel. It is the most important
    question I want to ask, and then I will ask a second one if I
    have time, but this is the one I want to ask first. The bombing
    of Benghazi and Tripoli under President Reagan is frequently
    brought forward in the circles of politics and government where
    I participate--admittedly at a very low level--as the example
    that, ``you see, Qadhafi he changed his behavior, we bombed and
    his support for terrorism changed. We bombed and he altered his
    behavior.''
        I heard, and for the life of me I can't tell you where, nor
    if it is official, but I heard that several years thereafter we
    became convinced that Qadhafi was not responsible for the La
    Belle disco bombing in Europe, which was a predicate for our
    bombing Libia. Then I thought, maybe it was a very successful
    strategy; Qadhafi must have thought we were nuts to bomb when
    they weren't responsible, and maybe this created a very good
    deterrent, although a very strange one, to think we would bomb
    him for some act that he did not do, just because he might
    have.
        I have got to tell you this argument is alive and well
    today. People still argue, ``look, see, we got Qadhafi to
    change because we bombed,'' and if I bring up the fact that
    subsequent evidence proved he wasn't the one at fault, people
    don't seem to remember that. Maybe my fact premise is false. So
    I would like the opinion of any member of the panel, what
    effect did that bombing have on Qadhafi's behavior, because the
    myth is, as I have described it; and if it is a myth, I would
    like to have that exposed, and if it is true, I would like to
    know that as well.
        The second question, is this. I know President Isayas of
    Eritrea visited Qadhafi recently, and I am troubled about any
    possible play of Libya in the Eritrean-Ethiopian war, but the
    first question is the one that concerns me most.
        Mr. Takeyh. One thing I will say is that the bombing of
    1986, it is unclear whether it changed Qadhafi's policies or
    not. There were other factors in the late 1980's including the
    decline of the petroleum market and others that placed stress
    on Qadhafi's regime, but it did exacerbate internal dissension,
    particularly within the military, as it exposed it to further
    risks that it was unwilling to bear, particularly at the time
    when Libya's economy began to disintegrate. So it did cause
    members of the military, which is the only institution cohesive
    enough to succeed Qadhafi in Libya, to be further suspicious of
    Qadhafi's conduct.
        Mr. El-Kikhia. The other factor here, I have heard it from
    more than one source is that perhaps it was a renegade
    Palestinian group, Syria might have been involved in the
    process as well and even Iran. I mean, the funny thing is that
    the United States does not present the proof, citing that it
    was to preserve its intelligence sources, but you must
    understand something which I think really may be a fault in
    American foreign policymaking, and I think the executive branch
    used that often not only to convince us, or outsiders, but also
    to convince you. What do they do?
        The executive branch basically exaggerates the threat and
    oversells the solution constantly. So you make Qadhafi this
    huge ogre.
        Mr. Campbell. Time is running out. I am sorry. On the
    specific example, did Qadhafi alter his behavior following the
    bombing?
        Mr. El-Kikhia. Qadhafi has always been an opportunist, so
    whenever he feels that the opportunity is there, he will move;
    then he backs off and sees the reaction. I don't think he
    changed the behavior so much. He just chose a different route,
    different way.
        Mr. Campbell. Dr. Sinai, do you have any point of view or,
    Mr. Turbi, do you have any point of view on this?
        Mr. Sinai. I would like to come back to the idea of
    proportionality. Libya's weapons of mass destruction do pose a
    threat. Former CIA Director John Deutch has called Tarhuna, the
    chemicals weapons plant, the largest chemical weapons facility
    in the Third World. Why has it been built? Is it a
    pharmaceutical facility?
        Mr. Campbell. Do you remember my question? Could you
    respond to my question? Did Qadhafi alter his behavior after we
    bombed?
        Mr. Sinai. I think it did constrain his behavior to some
    extent, and the sanctions have also constrained his behavior.
        Mr. Campbell. Mr. Turbi, do you have an opinion on this?
        Mr. Turbi. I can't help but see your burning desire to get
    an answer to that question, and I don't think anybody can give
    you an answer because that is very subjective.
        We do everything very subjective, don't we?
        Mr. Campbell. Thank you.
        Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
        Mr. Royce. I want to thank all of the witnesses, and I
    think we have had a very good discussion here today. We do have
    a 30-year track record to go on. We are all hopeful from what
    we have seen of late that maybe that track record is going to
    change.
        At the same time, I will say that I have heard a comment
    about a positive constructive engagement of Libya through
    Qadhafi's efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. I would just have to
    say, based upon my experience and based upon what I have seen
    in Sierra Leone in terms of the mayhem and tragedy that has
    occurred there, I don't see the engagement as having been all
    that constructive. But perhaps we are at a fork in the road,
    and maybe the future will bring a different sort of engagement
    and a different set of responses from the Government of Libya.
        I want to thank our witnesses for traveling here, and I
    want to thank the Committee Members for their patience. Thank
    you very much.
        We are adjourned.
        [Whereupon, at 4:37 p.m., the Subcommittee was adjourned.]

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                                A P P E N D I X

                                  May 25, 1999

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