(a)

(1)

(i) Any hazard from a launch vehicle, vehicle component, or payload can reach any protected area at any time during flight; or

(ii) A failure of the launch vehicle would have a high consequence to the public.

(2)

(b)

(1) A launch operator may initiate the flight of a launch vehicle only if the total risk associated with the launch to all members of the public, excluding persons in water-borne vessels and aircraft, does not exceed an expected number of 1 × 10

(2) A launch operator may initiate flight only if the risk to any individual member of the public does not exceed a casualty expectation of 1 × 10

(3) A launch operator must establish any water borne vessel hazard areas necessary to ensure the probability of impact (P

(4) A launch operator must establish any aircraft hazard areas necessary to ensure the probability of impact (P

(c)

(1) When using the 11 ft-lbs threshold to determine potential casualties due to blunt trauma from inert debris impacts, the analysis must:

(i) Incorporate a probabilistic model that accounts for the probability of casualty due to any debris expected to impact with kinetic energy of 11 ft-lbs or greater and satisfy paragraph (d) of this section; or

(ii) Count each expected impact with kinetic energy of 11 ft-lbs or greater to a person as a casualty.

(2) When applying the 1.0 psi threshold to determine potential casualties due to blast overpressure effects, the analysis must:

(i) Incorporate a probabilistic model that accounts for the probability of casualty due to any blast overpressures of 1.0 psi or greater and satisfy paragraph (d) of this section; or

(ii) Count each person within the 1.0 psi overpressure radius of the source explosion as a casualty. When using this approach, the analysis must compute the peak incident overpressure using the Kingery-Bulmash relationship and may not take into account sheltering, reflections, or atmospheric effects. For persons located in buildings, the analysis must compute the peak incident overpressure for the shortest distance between the building and the blast source. The analysis must count each person located anywhere in a building subjected to peak incident overpressure equal to or greater than 1.0 psi as a casualty.

(d)

(e)

(i) Throughout a sub-orbital launch; or

(ii) For an orbital launch:

(A) During ascent to initial orbital insertion and through at least one complete orbit; and

(B) During each subsequent orbital maneuver or burn from initial park orbit, or direct ascent to a higher or interplanetary orbit or until clear of all manned or mannable objects, whichever occurs first.

(2) A launch operator must obtain a collision avoidance analysis for each launch from United States Strategic Command or from a Federal range having an approved launch site safety assessment. United States Strategic Command calls this analysis a conjunction on launch assessment. Sections 417.231 and A417.31 of appendix A of this part contain the requirements for obtaining a collision avoidance analysis. A launch operator must use the results of the collision avoidance analysis to develop flight commit criteria for collision avoidance as required by § 417.113(c).

(f)