[House Document 107-20]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]



107th Congress, 1st Session - - - - - - - - - - - House Document 107-20 


 
                  THE PRESIDENT'S TRANSMITTAL MESSAGE

                               __________

                                MESSAGE

                                  from

                   THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

                              TRANSMITTING

 HIS FY 2002 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, HIGHLIGHTS FROM FY 1994 TO FY 2001, FY 
                       2002 BASELINE PROJECTIONS




  January 20, 2001.--Message and accompanying papers referred to the 
         Committee on Appropriations and ordered to be printed
                               __________

                    U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
89-012                     WASHINGTON : 2001

                 I. The President's Transmittal Message

To the Congress of the United States:
    I am pleased to submit my FY 2002 Economic Outlook, 
Highlights from FY 1994 to FY 2001, FY 2002 Baseline 
Projections. For the benefit of the new Administration and the 
public, this document includes an economic overview, a 
technical presentation of current services projections, a 
programmatic review of the Federal Government that details my 
Administration's actions over the last eight years, and pending 
policy proposals that I believe should be the starting point 
for a new Administration.


                          the outlook in 1993


    To appreciate what we have accomplished in the past eight 
years, we must take stock of where we were in 1993. When I took 
office in 1993, economic growth had averaged only 1.7 percent 
in the four previous years. In 1992, unemployment surged to 7.8 
percent. In 1992, the budget deficit was $290 billion, the 
largest in the history of our Nation. The debt held by the 
public quadrupled between 1980 and 1992 and threatened to keep 
mounting. The deficit was projected to reach $390 billion by 
1998 and $639 billion by 2003.
    I believed that by exercising fiscal responsibility and 
making strategic investments in our future, we could reverse 
this trend and spur the economy to robust growth. Eight years 
later, with deficits turned to surplus, with the mountain of 
debt receding, and with sustained economic growth at record 
level, we can say that we were able to achieve this goal 
through a steadfast commitment to fiscal discipline.


                        the clinton-gore record


    Over the eight years of my Administration, our total 
deficit reduction totals $1.2 trillion, more than double our 
original estimates. We have experienced four straight years of 
surplus, a stretch of prosperity last seen following World War 
I. For three years in a row, we have actually been able to pay 
off $363 billion of this debt and expect to pay off $600 
billion by the end of this year. With a sustained commitment to 
fiscal discipline by continuing to use the surplus to pay down 
the debt, this Nation can be fully debt-free in this decade for 
the first time since 1835. We can eliminate the publicly held 
debt by the end of the decade and, by doing so, we can 
strengthen our economy and our Nation's prospects for the 
future.
    FY 2002 Economic Outlook, Highlights from FY 1994 to FY 
2001, FY 2002 Baseline Projections continues to project that 
the Federal budget will remain in surplus for many decades to 
come, if a responsible fiscal policy prevails and realistic 
assumptions and projections are used.
    The Federal Government must continue to meet the needs of 
the American people in a Nation with a growing economy and a 
growing population. We take for granted the need to maintain 
critical functions like air traffic safety, law enforcement, 
the administration of Social Security and Medicare, and 
national security--both defense and diplomacy. Because I firmly 
believe that the American people demand and deserve a 
Government that meets their needs, this document reflects the 
progress we have made in serving the American people. These 
accomplishments include:
     Improving education, with initiatives focusing on 
accountability and school-systemreforms; increased funding for 
Pell Grants and Work-Study Programs; and, initiatives to reduce class 
size, establish after-school programs, improve reading ability, expand 
mentoring and education technology, and renovate crumbling schools. The 
results are significant. For example, 29,000 teachers have been hired, 
on our way to the goal of hiring 100,000 new teachers to reduce class 
size, and there has been a six-fold increase in the number of Title I 
elementary schools with after-school programs. We have doubled funding 
for Head Start, and increased funding for higher education programs--
the biggest increase since the G.I. Bill.
     Rewarding work and ``ending welfare as we know 
it,'' with incentives to States for moving welfare recipients 
into jobs, encouraging businesses to hire people from welfare 
rolls, expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, tripling funding 
for dislocated worker training, and increasing funding for 
child care. Since January 1993, the welfare rolls have 
decreased from 14.1 million to 6.3 million, the fewest number 
of people on welfare since 1968.
     Making Social Security solvency a national 
priority, with the challenge to ``save Social Security first,'' 
ensuring that Social Security funds are used to pay for Social 
Security and strengthen our economic health.
     Achieving the longest Medicare Trust Fund solvency 
in a quarter century while improving Medicare's benefits.
     Reversing the increase in the number of uninsured 
Americans through the Children's Health Insurance Program 
(CHIP) and other policies. Over 3.3 million children have 
received health insurance through the CHIP.
     Setting the highest level of environmental 
standards ever. More land in the lower 48 States has been 
protected under the Antiquities Act than by any other 
Administration; 58.5 million acres of national forest will be 
protected from road building and logging; unprecedented 
legislation will provide $12 billion over six years in 
dedicated funding for the conservation of America's land and 
coastal resources; climate change and clean water funding was 
increased; and, efforts to fight budget riders that would have 
sacrificed hard-won environmental safeguards to special-
interests succeeded.
     Increasing investments in science and technology, 
as the keys to economic growth. Funding for medical research at 
the National Institutes of Health doubled, allowing for 
breakthroughs such as the complete sequencing of the human 
genome and new therapies to prevent breast cancer.
     Securing funding to hire over 100,000 additional 
community police officers, making our streets safer. My 
Administration's initiatives to reduce crime contributed to the 
lowest annual serious crime count since 1985.
     Giving Americans confidence that when natural 
disasters occur, such as the Northridge Earthquake, Hurricane 
Floyd, and the Midwest Floods, their Government will help them 
return to prosperity.
     Implementing the Uruguay Round, the North American 
Free Trade Agreement, and other major agreements, to liberalize 
trade and financial markets, aid construction of a new global 
economic architecture, and promote growth.
     Fighting transnational threats, such as HIV/AIDS, 
terrorism, and environmental destruction, as well as securing 
historic debt relief for countries in crisis and resources to 
fight child abuse at home and abroad.
     Improving the security of Americans at home and 
abroad, through increased funding for embassy security.
     Strengthening our national security by promoting 
stability in responding to natural disasters in Central America 
and Africa, as well as man-made crises in Kosovo, Bosnia, and 
Indonesia.
     Maintaining the Nation's security, with the best-
equipped, best-trained, and best-prepared military in the 
world.
    This document also highlights the dramatic improvements in 
the management of the Federal Government we have made over the 
last eight years. We have used information technology to create 
a Government that is more accessible and responsive to 
citizens. The Federal Government has reinvented the way it buys 
goods and services, focusing on customer satisfaction and 
results. We have transformed the Federal financial management 
system. Eight years ago, only a few agencies routinely prepared 
and issued audited financial statements. Now virtually all 
agencies issue annual audited financial statements. More than 
half of the 24 largest agencies received clean audits in 1999. 
In addition, significant strides have been made to advance the 
transparency and underpinnings of the regulatory process and 
improve the Nation's statistics. These management functions are 
the essentials of governmental operations. Doing them very well 
rarely garners attention. Failing to do them can undermine 
program and policy effectiveness as certainly as bad policy 
decisions or inadequate program implementation.
    As the Nation looks to the future, there are several 
important areas where additional work is needed. Examples 
include:
           Providing prescription drug coverage for 
        Medicare beneficiaries;
           Passing legislation to stiffen penalties for 
        hate crimes;
           Ensuring equity for legal immigrants;
           Increasing the minimum wage to support 
        millions of working families;
           Providing a Medicaid buy-in option for 
        children with disabilities in working families;
           Ensuring stability in the Middle East peace 
        process;
           Increasing our embassy security;
           Funding diplomacy as an alternative to 
        crises and violence;
           Striving to hire 100,000 new teachers to 
        reduce class size;
           Helping school districts to obtain financing 
        to construct and modernize schools; and,
           Expanding and improving the quality of the 
        Head Start program.

                        My Hopes for the Nation

    This is a rare moment in American history. Never before has 
our Nation enjoyed so much prosperity, at a time when social 
progress continues to advance and our position as the global 
leader is secure. Today, we are well prepared to make the 
choices that will shape the future of our Nation for decades to 
come.
    By reversing the earlier trend of fiscal irresponsibility, 
using conservative economic estimates, balancing the budget, 
and producing an historic surplus, we have helped restore our 
national spirit and produced the resources to help opportunity 
and prosperity reach all corners of this Nation. We have it 
within our reach today, by making the right choices, to offer 
the promise of prosperity to generations of Americans to come. 
If we keep to the path of fiscal discipline, we can build a 
foundation of prosperity for the future of the Nation.
    Over the last eight years, I have sought to provide the 
fiscal discipline necessary to ensure the continuing growth of 
our economy while making essential investments in the future of 
our people--especially those who are less fortunate. The 
results are evident. I present this document with pride in our 
accomplishments, and the hope that this progress will continue 
and grow for all Americans.
    In the past eight years, we have enjoyed extraordinary 
economic performance because our fiscal policy was responsible 
and sound. To continue the Nation's strong economic 
performance, we must maintain our commitment to a sound fiscal 
policy. Experience over the last twenty years clearly shows how 
perilous it is to create conditions for budgetary problems. We 
are now enjoying the benefits of a virtuous cycle of surplus 
and debt reduction and must not return to the vicious cycle of 
red ink.
    The challenge now, in this era of surplus, is to make 
balanced choices to use our resources to meet both the evident, 
pressing needs of today, and the more distant, but no less 
crucial, needs of generations to come.
                                                William J. Clinton.

                                  
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