[House Document 106-181]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]





106th Congress, 2d Session - - - - - - - - - - - House Document 106-181
-----------------------------------------------------------------------



 
                     POTENTIAL THREATS FACING NATO

                               __________

                                MESSAGE

                                  from

                   THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

                              transmitting

    A REPORT ON POTENTIAL THREATS FACING THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY 
                              ORGANIZATION




  January 31, 2000.--Message and accompanying papers referred to the 
         Committee on Armed Services and ordered to be printed

                                -------                                

                    U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
79-011                     WASHINGTON : 2000       





To the Congress of the United States:
    Pursuant to the authority vested in me as President of the 
United States, including by section 1221(a) of the National 
Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000 (Public Law 106-
65), I hereby determine and certify that the new NATO Strategic 
Concept
imposes no new commitment or obligation on the United States. 
Further, in accordance with section 1221(c) of the Act, I 
transmit 
herewith the attached unclassified report to the Congress on 
the 
potential threats facing the North Atlantic Treaty 
Organization.

                                                William J. Clinton.
    The White House, January 31, 2000.

        Report to the Congress on the Strategic Concept of NATO

analysis of potential threats to the north atlantic treaty organization

    The threat of a large-scale conventional military attack 
against NATO is negligible. The emergence of any such threat 
would likely take years, if not decades, to develop. The United 
States and its Allies would, therefore, have considerable 
warning and preparation time in the very unlikely event of such 
a dramatic change in the European security environment. The 
Allies continue to improve their capacity to meet conventional 
and other challenges, including through NATO Defense Planning, 
joint exercises, and the Defense Capability Initiative launched 
at the Washington Summit.
    The Alliance faces risks that are multi-directional, multi-
dimensional, and difficult to predict in detail. While most of 
Europe is more secure than at any time in decades, the Alliance 
confronts actual and potential dangers which are likely to 
increase. They will come from a number of sources including 
ethnic and religious strife, the spread of weapons of mass 
destruction, potential outbreaks of regional conflict, and 
transnational threats such as terrorism.
    Over the next year, we will continue to face challenges in 
the Balkans, where Alliance forces will continue to be engaged 
in peace support operations. In Kosovo, with strong Alliance 
involvement and support, including participation by partner 
nations, the international community is working to create a 
peaceful, democratic society where people can live in security 
and enjoy universally recognized human rights and freedoms on 
an equal basis. In Bosnia, the Dayton process has brought 
stability and ended violence, but much more needs to be done to 
achieve meaningful ethnic reconciliation. A constitutional 
struggle still looms between Serbia and Montenegro.
    Throughout the region, political, economic, and social 
progress is likely to remain tied to continuing direct 
international involvement in many aspects of policy formulation 
and resource allocation. The Stability Pact for southeast 
Europe was launched this summer by regional countries and key 
international players, including the United States, to address 
this need. It complements work already underway bilaterally and 
through a variety of institutions, including NATO, to 
strengthendemocracy, economic development, and security 
throughout the region.
    The conflict in Chechnya is a source of mounting civilian 
casualties and large numbers of displaced people. It poses a 
threat to the stability of the entire Caucasus region and 
highlights the type of security challenges emerging in the New 
Independent States. The United States and its allies continue 
to press Russia to exercise the fullest restraint, to refrain 
from the indiscriminate use of force against civilians, and to 
pursue a political solution to the conflict. Allies also 
support the OSCE's efforts to facilitate such a political 
solution.
    Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and 
their means of delivery, in particular, constitutes a real 
threat to Allied populations, territory, and military forces. 
Recently, a series of events have underlined these concerns, 
including nuclear tests in South Asia, continued concern about 
Iraq's WMD programs, accelerated missile development in South 
Asia, Northeast Asia, and the Persian Gulf area, and the 
continued availability of dual-use technologies relevant to 
producing chemical and biological weapons. Particularly 
worrisome is the security of materials in Russia and other New 
Independent States (NIS) that could be used for WMD production 
and delivery, increased cooperation among rogue states, and 
more effective efforts by proliferants to conceal illicit 
activities.
    Enhanced Alliance efforts are required both to stem 
proliferation and to prevent and protect against attacks 
employing such weapons. The Alliance is pursuing plans to open 
a WMD Center at NATO as part of an initiative launched at the 
Washington Summit to improve overall Alliance political and 
military efforts to respond to the risks posed by WMD. The 
United States and its NATO partners are also continuing to work 
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Chemical Weapons 
Convention and to negotiate and bring into force new 
nonproliferation agreements such as the Comprehensive Test Ban 
Treaty, the Biological Weapons Convention Protocol, and the 
Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. We also are working vigorously 
through the Missile Technology Control Regime and the Australia 
Group to prevent the transfer of sensitive technologies to 
proliferation programs.
    Russia and other NIS states will continue to need 
assistance as they attempt to deal with the WMD capabilities 
they inherited from the former Soviet Union. Under the Expanded 
Threat Reduction Initiative announced last January, the United 
States, with allied assistance, will redouble its efforts to 
assist Russia, Ukraine, and other NIS in dismantling its 
nuclear and chemical weapons, in eliminating former chemical 
and biological weapons facilities, in safeguarding sensitive 
nuclear materials, in employing weapons scientists, and in 
redirecting former biological weapons institutes.
    Possible terrorist attacks on Alliance territories and 
against Allied citizens and military facilities by 
organizations with virtually worldwide contacts also pose 
serious concerns. In addition to more conventional threats such 
as bombings, kidnappings, and assassinations, some terrorist 
groups have expressed an interest in or have sought to acquire 
chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear agents. At the 
Washington Summit, allies reaffirmed their commitment to combat 
terrorism and to develop appropriate measures to ensure 
continued protection of NATO forces and installations.
    In sum, despite the virtual disappearance of a large-scale 
conventional threat, the Alliance continued to face a range of 
serious risks on its periphery that put a premium on a high 
level of vigilance as well as on enhanced mobility, 
sustainability, interoperability, and capability of Allied 
forces.

                                

