[House Document 104-160]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]





        104th Congress, 2d Session - - - - - - - - House Document 104-
160, Pt. 1

 
         DEFICIT REDUCTION AND BALANCED BUDGET BY FISCAL YEAR 2002

                               ----------                              

                                MESSAGE

                                  from

                   THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

                              transmitting

 PROPOSED LEGISLATION FOR DEFICIT REDUCTION AND TO ACHIEVE A BALANCED 
                       BUDGET BY FISCAL YEAR 2002




January 9 (legislative day, January 5), 1996.--Message and accompanying 
    papers referred to the Union Calendar and ordered to be printed



        104th Congress, 2d Session - - - - - - - - House Document 104-
160, Pt. 1


                         DEFICIT REDUCTION AND

                  BALANCED BUDGET BY FISCAL YEAR 2002

                               __________

                                MESSAGE

                                  from

                   THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

                              transmitting

 PROPOSED LEGISLATION FOR DEFICIT REDUCTION AND TO ACHIEVE A BALANCED 
                       BUDGET BY FISCAL YEAR 2002




January 9 (legislative day, January 5), 1996.--Message and accompanying 
    papers referred to the Union Calendar and ordered to be printed
To the Congress of the United States:
    I hereby submit to the Congress a plan to achieve a 
balanced budget not later than the fiscal year 2002 as 
certified by the Congressional Budget Office on January 6, 
1996. This plan has been prepared by Senator Daschle and if 
passed in its current form by the Congress, I would sign it 
into law.

                                                William J. Clinton.
    The White House, January 6, 1996.
                       Balanced Budget Highlights

Balances The Budget In 7 Years Under Congressional Budget 
        Office Scoring
Achieves Over $600 Billion Of Deficit Reduction
Cuts Taxes For Families With Children, Provides Deductions For 
        Higher Education, and Increases Savings Through IRAs.
Extends The Solvency Of The Medicare Part A Trust Fund Through 
        2011.
Protects Medicare And Medicaid Recipients
No Cuts In Student Loans; Funds Key Investments In Education, 
        The Environment, And Science And Technology
Contains Zero Special Interest Giveaways, Spenders, And Outyear 
        Deficit Busters
Triggers Accelerated Deficit Reduction; Tax Cuts; And 
        Investments In Education, And Other Priorities As CBO 
        Deficit Targets Are Exceeded

                        The Investment Dividend

Triggers Dividends if Economic Performance Exceeds CBO 
        Expectations
CBO/OMB Baseline Differences Total $194 Billion Between 1996 
        and 2002
Dividend Allocation:
          \1/3\ For Additional Deficit Reduction
          \1/3\ For Additional Tax Cuts
          \1/3\ For Additional Investments
Allocation Of Dividend Results In:
          Total Tax Cuts--$147 Billion
          Investments--$23 Billion Above a Freeze
          Surplus--$29 Billion in 2002

                                            BALANCED BUDGET PROPOSAL                                            
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            1996     1997     1998     1999     2000     2001     2002    7-year
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBO December Baseline...................      172      183      183      195      204      211      228  .......
    Take full BLS adjustment............        0        0       -2       -2       -3       -5       -6      -17
                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------
      Revised Baseline..................      172      182      181      193      201      206      223  .......
                                         =======================================================================
Discretionary...........................      -12       -7      -14      -30      -47      -75     -110     -295
                                         =======================================================================
Mandatory:                                                                                                      
    Medicare............................       -0       -3       -6      -12      -19      -26      -35     -102
    Medicaid............................        0       -0       -2       -7      -10      -13      -19      -52
    Farm programs.......................        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0
    FCC spectrum auction................       -0       -2       -3       -4       -3       -3       -7      -21
    Welfare (outlays and revenues)......       -1       -5       -6       -7       -8       -8       -9      -43
    EITC................................       -0       -0       -0       -0       -0       -0       -0       -2
    Student loans.......................        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0
    Veterans programs...................       -0       -0       -0       -1       -1       -1       -1       -6
    Federal retirement/Postal benefits..       -1       -2       -3       -3       -3       -3       -4      -19
    Banking and housing.................       -4        0        0        0        0        0       -1       -4
    Other mandatory.....................       -1       -1       -1       -1       -1       -1       -2       -2
                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total Mandatory...................       -8      -13      -22      -36      -46      -56      -78     -259
Tax Cuts................................        3       13       14       16       22       17        2       87
Corporate Loopholes and other...........       -2       -6       -7       -9      -10      -12      -14      -60
                                         =======================================================================
      Total Policy Changes..............      -19      -13      -31      -60      -85     -131     -205     -544
Net interest............................       -0       -2       -3       -5       -9      -15      -24      -57
                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total Changes.....................      -20      -15      -34      -65      -93     -146     -229     -602
Plan Deficits...........................      153      167      149      130      110       65       -1  .......
                                                                                                                
                                  Distribution of Possible Investment Dividend                                  
                                                                                                                
CBO/OMB baseline differences............      -12       -6        7       24       38       61       82      194
    Assume \1/3\ for deficit reduction..       -4       -2        2       -8       13       20       27       65
    Assume \1/3\ for tax cuts \1\.......        0        0        0        0       13       20       27       65
    Assume \1/3\ discretionary \1\......        0        0        0        0       13       20       27       65
Adjusted Deficits with Dividend.........      157      169      147      122       98       45      -28  .......
Adjusted Tax Cuts with Dividend.........        3       13       14       16       34       38       29      147
    Adjusted Discretionary with Dividend      -12       -7      -14      -30      -34      -55      -83     -235
    Comparison to BA freeze.............       -4        2       -3        2       14       11        1       23
    Comparison to Republican Offer......        6       23       25       26       34       35       26      174
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Effective only in last 3 years.                                                                             


                                                                       OTHER MANDATORY CHANGES IN BALANCED BUDGET PROPOSAL                                                                      
                                                                                    [In billions of dollars]                                                                                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       1996            1997            1998            1999            2000            2001            2002           7-year    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Veterans programs:                                                                                                                                                                              
    Health Care Per Diems and Copays............................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.058          -0.062          -0.065          -0.070          -0.255
    Medical Care cost recovery..................................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.190          -0.198          -0.206          -0.215          -0.809
    Verify income for pension purposes..........................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.010          -0.020          -0.030          -0.040          -0.100
    Verify income for medical care..............................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.004          -0.008          -0.012          -0.016          -0.040
    Pension limitation--nursing home vets.......................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.194          -0.236          -0.169          -0.212          -0.811
    Fees on original loans......................................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.074          -0.076          -0.078          -0.080          -0.308
    Fees on later loans.........................................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.024          -0.025          -0.025          -0.025          -0.099
    Resale losses...............................................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.004          -0.004          -0.004          -0.004          -0.016
    Enhanced loan asset sale authority..........................          -0.005          -0.005          -0.005          -0.005          -0.005          -0.005          -0.005          -0.035
    Overturn Supreme Court Gardner decision.....................          -0.088          -0.210          -0.328          -0.451          -0.504          -0.426          -0.457          -2.464
    Withholding payments and benefits...........................          -0.090           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.090
    Reduce COLA for MGIB benefits...............................          -0.007          -0.025          -0.044          -0.061          -0.080          -0.099          -0.118          -0.434
    Round-down compensation COLA................................           0.002          -0.015          -0.046          -0.081          -0.122          -0.139          -0.186          -0.587
                                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, veteran programs...................................          -0.188          -0.255          -0.423          -1.156          -1.340          -1.258          -1.428          -6.048
                                                                 ===============================================================================================================================
Federal retirement:                                                                                                                                                                             
    Extend COLA delay for Civilian retirement...................           0.000          -0.309          -0.323          -0.326          -0.329          -0.342          -0.356          -1.985
    Raise agency pension contributions..........................          -0.497          -0.641          -0.615          -0.587          -0.532          -0.510          -0.486          -3.868
    Revise congressional retirement benefits....................             (*)             (*)          -0.001          -0.001          -0.002          -0.002          -0.003          -0.009
    Employee contributions (revenues)...........................          -0.198          -0.393          -0.529          -0.570          -0.582          -0.607          -0.634          -3.513
    Add prefunded health benefits...............................           0.000          -0.850          -1.700          -1.700          -1.800          -1.800          -2.000          -9.850
    USPS Transitional Appropriation.............................           0.000          -0.009          -0.037          -0.037          -0.036          -0.036          -0.036          -0.191
                                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total retirement..........................................          -0.695          -2.202          -3.205          -3.221          -3.281          -3.297          -3.515         -19.416
                                                                 ===============================================================================================================================
Banking and Housing:                                                                                                                                                                            
    Deposit insurance funds (BIF/SAIF)..........................          -4,100          -0.500          -0.500          -0.900          -0.800          -0.800          -0.200          -0.400
    Rent adjustments for operating costs........................          -0.018          -0.066          -0.126          -0.177          -0.210          -0.229          -0.249          -0.075
    FHA single-family assignment................................          -0.119          -0.216          -0.234          -0.268          -0.308          -0.317          -0.317          -1.779
    1% cut in housing rent adjustments..........................          -0.042          -0.170          -0.216          -0.211          -0.198          -0.182          -0.170          -1.189
                                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, banking and housing................................          -4.279           0.048          -0.076           0.244           0.084           0.072          -0.536          -4.443
                                                                 ===============================================================================================================================
Asset sales and fees:                                                                                                                                                                           
    Asset sales:                                                                                                                                                                                
        U.S. Enrichment Corporation.............................          -1,300           0.000          -0.021          -0.054          -0.055          -0.046          -0.047          -1.523
        Elk Hills...............................................           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000          -1.100          -1.100
        Sale of DOE assets......................................          -0.020          -0.015          -0.015          -0.015          -0.015          -0.015          -0.015          -0.110
        Sale of Weeks Island Oil................................          -0.100          -0.188          -0.182           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.470
        Sale of Helium Reserve..................................           0.000          -0.003          -0.008          -0.009          -0.009          -0.009          -0.009          -0.047
        OCS deepwater royalty relief............................           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.020          -0.020          -0.040
        Sale of Governors Island NY.............................           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.500           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.500
        Sale of Union Station Air Rights........................           0.000          -0.040           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.040
                                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Subtotal, asset sales.................................          -1.420          -0.246          -0.226          -0.578          -0.079          -0.090          -1.191          -3.830
                                                                 ===============================================================================================================================
    Fees and other:                                                                                                                                                                             
        NRC charges.............................................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.330          -0.330          -0.330          -0.330          -1.320
        U.S. Enrichment Corporation.............................           0.306          -0.084           0.064           0.036          -0.255          -0.080           0.030           0.185
        Lease of excess SPRO capacity...........................           0.000           0.000          -0.024          -0.037          -0.064          -0.059          -0.071          -0.255
        Elk Hills--lost receipts................................           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.094          -0.094
        Hetch Hetchy fees.......................................          -0.001          -0.001          -0.001          -0.001          -0.001          -0.001          -0.001          -0.007
        Bonneville Power Administration.........................           0.000           0.000          -0.016          -0.014          -0.012          -0.026          -0.026          -0.094
        OCS.....................................................           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000           0.000
        Park fees...............................................          -0.007          -0.013          -0.014          -0.011          -0.014          -0.010          -0.014          -0.083
        National Defense Stockpile sales........................          -0.021          -0.079          -0.079          -0.079          -0.080          -0.155          -0.156          -0.649
        Vessel Tonnage Duties...................................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.049          -0.049          -0.049          -0.049          -0.196
        FEMA charges............................................          -0.012          -0.012          -0.012          -0.012          -0.012          -0.012          -0.012          -0.084
        Denial unemployment insurance to individuals who                                                                                                                                        
         voluntarily leave military service.....................          -0.235          -0.270          -0.265          -0.270          -0.275          -0.285          -0.295          -1.895
        Extend patent and trademark fees........................           0.000           0.000           0.000          -0.119          -0.119          -0.119          -0.119          -0.476
            Subtotal, fees......................................           0.030          -0.291          -0.347          -0.886          -1.211          -1.126          -0.949          -4.780
                                                                 ===============================================================================================================================
            Total, asset sales and fees.........................          -1.390          -0.537          -0.573          -1.464          -1.290          -1.216          -2.140          -8.610
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Medicare

    This proposal implements reforms that strengthen and 
improve Medicare, reducing its rate of growth by $102 billion 
(net) over seven years and guaranteeing the solvency of the 
trust fund for more than a decade. Specific reforms provide 
seniors with more choices of private health plans, improve 
Medicare's fee-for-service program by making it more efficient 
and responsive to beneficiary needs, tackle fraud and abuse 
through programs applauded by law enforcement officials, reduce 
the rate of growth of provider payments, and extend the 25% 
Part B premium.

       Highlights of Provider Payment Reforms and Program Savings

    Hospitals ($40 B). Reduces inflation update for hospitals 
and payments for capital and indirect medical education; 
reforms payments for graduate medical education.
    Managed Care ($22 B). Reforms payments by using reasonable 
rate of growth limits on updates for managed care payments, 
removing payments made for disproportionate share and medical 
education and reducing current geographic variation in 
payments.
    Physicians ($15 B). Reforms physician payments by 
collapsing the current three conversion factors into a single 
update for all physicians; replaces current ``volume 
performance standards'' with a ``sustainable growth rate.''
    Home Health Care ($9 B)/Skilled Nursing Facilities ($7 B). 
Implements a series of interim payment reforms before the 
establishment of separate prospective payment systems for home 
health care and skilled nursing facilities.
    Fraud and Abuse ($7 B). Introduces aggressive and 
comprehensive policies to stamp out Medicare waste, fraud, and 
abuse and extends and enhances Medicare secondary payor policy.
    Other Providers ($5 B). Freezes or reduces payments for 
durable medical equipment and ambulatory surgical centers.
    Beneficiaries ($7 B). Requires beneficiaries to pay 25% of 
Part B costs.

                Provisions to Improve Rural Health Care

    This proposal implements a variety of measures to enhance 
access to and quality of health care in rural areas. These 
include an extension of Rural Referral Center program, direct 
Medicare reimbursement for nurse practitioners and physician 
assistants, improvements to the Sole Community Hospital 
program, and an expansion of the Rural Primary Care Hospital 
program.

         Program Improvements and Preventive Benefits (+$11 B)

    A series of reforms transform the fee-for-service program 
from a bill-paying insurance program into a responsive health 
plan by giving Medicare the authority to adopt the same types 
of purchasing and quality techniques pioneered by private 
sector payers. The proposal also expands and improves Medicare 
managed care by (1) ensuring beneficiary protections while 
increasing the types of plans (including PPOs and PSNs) 
available to seniors and (2) instituting a coordinated annual 
open enrollment process during which beneficiaries use 
comparative information to choose among managed care and 
supplemental insurance options. A preventive benefits 
demonstration program provides respite care for Alzheimer's 
patients, annual mammograms and elimination of mammography co-
insurance, and colorectal cancer screening.

                                Medicaid

    This proposal would reform the Medicaid program rather than 
repeal it, guaranteeing health and long-term care coverage for 
all Medicaid recipients. It achieves $51.7 billion in savings 
in a responsible manner by limiting spending on a per person 
basis (a ``per capita cap'') and reducing and retargetting 
Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) payments to 
hospitals that serve large numbers of Medicaid and uninsured 
patients. The plan provides special payments for Federally 
Qualified Health Centers and States that have large numbers of 
undocumented immigrants, and gives States additional 
flexibility to allow them to more efficiently administer their 
Medicaid programs. Finally, this plan would retain current 
nursing home quality standards as well as spousal 
impoverishment protections and provisions that protect the 
financial resources of adult children whose parents are in 
nursing homes.

                           savings proposals

    Per Capita Cap ($22.2B). A per capita cap would limit the 
amount of Federal spending per eligible person while retaining 
current eligibility and benefit guidelines. This approach 
guarantees that the elderly, disabled, and pregnant women and 
children meeting certain criteria will continue to be eligible 
for health benefits while reducing the rate of increase in 
Medicaid spending to a level that is sustainable for States and 
the Federal government.
    Disproportionate Share Hospital Payments ($29.5B). 
Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) payments would be reduced 
and retargeted to specific institutions, including public 
hospitals, children's hospitals, Federally Qualified Health 
Centers and Rural Health Clinics. An additional fund is created 
for States with large numbers of undocumented immigrants.

                provisions to increase state flexibility

    Boren Amendment. This plan repeals the Boren Amendment, 
eliminating provider payment requirements that are imposed on 
States.
    Managed Care. This plan would allow States to move toward 
managed care and other types of cost-effective arrangements 
without Federal waivers.
    Home and Community Based Care. States would be allowed to 
move populations needing long-term care from nursing homes to 
home and community based care without having to seek Federal 
waivers.

        protections for low-income seniors and native americans

    Retains current policy of assisting low-income seniors by 
assuming responsibility for their Medicare premiums, 
copayments, and deductibles and retains current payment 
protections for Medicaid-eligible Native Americans treated in 
Indian Health Service facilities.

                         Welfare Reform Savings

    The plan will move welfare recipients to work while 
protecting children saving about $45.7 billion over 7 years. 
The plan essentially follows the House Democratic Coalition 
plan with some modifications.
    SSI/Disabled Children: New eligibility standards for 
childhood disability benefits would begin as soon as possible 
for new applicants. For children currently receiving SSI, a one 
year transition period would be granted with disability reviews 
beginning in 1997 to be completed by 1998. Full cash benefits 
for all eligible children would be retained.
    Child Care: A total of $11.8 billion is included for child 
care, which is $3 billion above baseline ($8.8 billion) for 
child care assistance for those welfare recipients required to 
work, transitioning from welfare to work, and the working poor. 
This is in addition to the $1 billion per year in discretionary 
funding authorized under the Child Care Development Block 
Grant. Existing child care programs would be consolidated into 
the Child Care Development Block Grant.
    Nutrition programs: Cuts in food stamps would be about 
$20.6 billion and cuts in child nutrition programs would be 
$3.3 billion for a total of $23.9 billion in savings. There 
would be no block grants under the Food Stamp program. There 
would be no food stamp overall cap. There would be no child 
nutrition block grants, but child nutrition spending would be 
reduced by about 6% in 2002. There would be tighter targeting 
of food subsidies for Family Day Care Homes and meal 
reimbursement rates would be rounded down to the nearest cent 
for child nutrition programs.
    Noncitizens: About $5 billion would be saved by deeming 
sponsor income until citizenship.
    Title XX (Social Services Block Grant): Cuts $1.9 billion.
    Cash Assistance: AFDC would be terminated and replaced by a 
new conditional entitlement of limited duration. There would be 
a 5 year maximum time limit with a state option for vouchers at 
the end of that period to assist children.
    EITC: Improved compliance and inclusion of capital gains 
income in determining the credit would save about $2 billion.
    Dependent Care Tax Credit: As under the Coalition plan, the 
DCTC would be made refundable and phased out between $60,000 
and $80,000 of AGI.

                                                       ESTIMATED REVENUE EFFECTS OF ``MIDDLE CLASS BILL OF RIGHTS TAX RELIEF ACT OF 1996''                                                      
                                                                            [By fiscal years, in millions of dollars]                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   Provision                                   Effective                   1996       1997       1998       1999       2000        2001        2002      1996-2000    1996-2002 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I. Middle-class bill of rights:                                                                                                                                                                 
    1. Credit for families with young children  1/1/96................................     -1,451     -7,228     -7,081     -7,763     -11,096      -9,073  ..........      -34.619      -43.692
    2. Deduction for higher education expenses  1/1/96................................     -1,736     -5,010     -5,996     -6,679      -6,995      -4,532  ..........      -26,416      -30,948
    3. Provisions relating to individual        1/1/96................................        235       -445       -964     -1,674      -3,443      -3,630      -2,034       -6.290      -11,954
     retirement plans.                                                                                                                                                                          
    4. Increase the self-employed health        tyba 12/31/95.........................        -29        -91       -137       -267        -422        -358  ..........         -945       -1,303
     insurance deduction (35% in 1996 and                                                                                                                                                       
     1997; 40% in 1998; 45% in 1999; 50% in                                                                                                                                                     
     2000; and 30% thereafter).                                                                                                                                                                 
II. Limitations on corporate welfare and other                                                                                                                                                  
 revenue provisions:                                                                                                                                                                            
    1. Revision of tax rules on expatriation..  2/6/95................................         18         29         46         65          86         102         109          244          455
    2. Gain recognition for certain             da 5/3/95.............................        -56       -100        -71        -33          13          69         104         -247          -74
     extraordinary dividends (Seagrams).                                                                                                                                                        
    3. Registration of certain confidential     aiolRSg...............................      (\1\)      (\1\)      (\1\)      (\1\)       (\1\)       (\1\)       (\1\)        (\2\)        (\2\)
     corporate tax shelters.                                                                                                                                                                    
    4. Disallow interest deduction for          lpoaa 10/13/95........................        220        579        883      1,369       1,749       1,856       1,895        4,800        8,551
     corporate-owned life insurance policy                                                                                                                                                      
     loans (BBA).                                                                                                                                                                               
    5. Phase out preferential tax deferral for  (\4\).................................         26         37         38         39          40          41          42          179          261
     certain large farm corporations required                                                                                                                                                   
     to use accrual accounting.                                                                                                                                                                 
    6. Reformulate Puerto Rico and possessions  tyba 12/31/96.........................  .........         56        175        308         455         616         718          994        2,328
     tax credit (section 936).                                                                                                                                                                  
    7. Further restrict like-kind exchanges     eoa 12/31/95..........................          2          5          8         11          13          15          17           39           71
     involving foreign property.                                                                                                                                                                
    8. Eliminate interest allocation exception  tyba 12/31/95.........................         41         93        107        123         141         163         187          505          855
     for certain nonfinancial corporations                                                                                                                                                      
     (BBA).                                                                                                                                                                                     
    9. Repeal section 1374 for large            12/7/95...............................         21         42         44         47          49          51          54          203          308
     corporations ($5 million fair market                                                                                                                                                       
     value).                                                                                                                                                                                    
    10. Modification of loss carry-back and     NOLgtyba 12/31/99.....................  .........  .........  .........  .........        -165       1,360       1,695         -165        2,890
     carry-forward rules; restrict to 1-year                                                                                                                                                    
     carry-back.                                                                                                                                                                                
    11. Require recognition of gain for         ......................................        100        100        100        100         100         100         100          500          700
     certain transactions.                                                                                                                                                                      
    12. Extend pro rata disallowance of tax-    (\5\).................................         24         43         49         56          64          70          73          238          381
     exempt interest expense to all                                                                                                                                                             
     corporations.                                                                                                                                                                              
    13. Reduce dividends received deduction to  dpa 1/31/96...........................        241        383        402        422         443         465         488        1,891        2,844
     50%.                                                                                                                                                                                       
    14. Modify holding period for dividends     dpa 1/31/96...........................          6         14         16         17          18          19          20           71          109
     received deduction \6\.                                                                                                                                                                    
    15. Treat certain preferred stock as        12/7/95...............................         80        147        150        154         160         104          33          692          829
     ``boot''.                                                                                                                                                                                  
    16. Deny interest deduction on certain      dia 12/7/95...........................         25         76        136        212         262         288         303          711        1,302
     debt instruments.                                                                                                                                                                          
    17. Interaction with 50% DRD proposal.....  dia 12/7/95...........................          1          3          5          8          11          12          12           28           52
    17. Defer original issue discount           dia 12/7/95...........................          5         17         36         53          64          78          90          175          343
     deduction on convertible debt.                                                                                                                                                             
    18. Modification of rule relating to        2/6/95................................         93        162        171        180         188         197         206          794        1,197
     foreign trusts having one or more United                                                                                                                                                   
     States beneficiaries.                                                                                                                                                                      
    19. Expand subpart F provisions regarding   tyba 12/31/95.........................         11         15         10         10          11          12          12           57           80
     income from notional principal contracts                                                                                                                                                   
     and stock lending transactions.                                                                                                                                                            
    20. Treat foreign taxes on oil and gas      1/1/96................................        800      2,000      2,000      2,400       2,600       2,800       3,000       10,000       15,800
     extracted income as royalties (with                                                                                                                                                        
     treaty override).                                                                                                                                                                          
    21. Repeal section 911....................  tyba 12/31/95.........................        300      1,300      1,400      1,500       1,600       1,700       1,800        6,100        9,600
    22. Require thrifts to account for bad      tyba 12/31/95.........................         63         95        216        280         277         272         260          931        1,462
     debts in the same manner as banks.                                                                                                                                                         
    23. Reform depreciation under the income    ppisa 9/13/95.........................         18         83         29         13          14          16          19          157          192
     forecast method.                                                                                                                                                                           
    24. Repeal lower of cost or market method.  tyba 12/31/98.........................  .........  .........  .........         55         306         330         336          361        1,027
    25. Repeal advance refunds of diesel fuel   1/1/96................................          8         19         19         19          19          19          19           84          122
     tax for diesel cars and light trucks                                                                                                                                                       
     (BBA).                                                                                                                                                                                     
    26. Increase penalties for failure to file  rda 90 daDOE..........................         12         20         21         22          23          24          25           97          147
     correct information returns.                                                                                                                                                               
    27. Modify basis adjustment rules under     icoa 9/13/95..........................          2          4          7         11          16          23          31           40           94
     section 1033.                                                                                                                                                                              
    28. Intermediate sanctions................  9/14/95 & 1/1/96......................          4          4          4          5           5           5           6           22           33
    29. Extend Superfund AMT permanently......  1/1/96................................        351        612        633        647         672         700         729        2,915        4,345
    30. Extend Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund   1/1/96................................  .........  .........  .........  .........  ..........          63          65  ...........          128
     tax through 9/30/02.                                                                                                                                                                       
    31. Extend 0.2% FUTA surtax through 2002    ......................................  .........  .........  .........        877       1,199       1,218       1,237        2,076        4,531
     (under current law; scheduled to expire                                                                                                                                                    
     12/31/98).                                                                                                                                                                                 
    32. Provide that rollover of gain on sale   sea 12/31/95..........................      (\7\)      (\7\)      (\7\)      (\7\)       (\7\)       (\7\)       (\7\)        (\7\)        (\7\)
     of a principal residence cannot be                                                                                                                                                         
     elected unless the replacement property                                                                                                                                                    
     purchased is located within the United                                                                                                                                                     
     States (limit to resident aliens who                                                                                                                                                       
     terminate residence within 2 years) (BBA).                                                                                                                                                 
    33. Repeal exemption for withholding on     1/1/96................................         20          6          6          6           6           7           7           44           58
     gambling winnings from bingo and keno                                                                                                                                                      
     where proceeds exceed $5,000 (BBA).                                                                                                                                                        
    34. Repeal 15-day tax-free vacation home    tyba 12/31/95.........................         11         22         23         23          24          26          27          103          155
     rental.                                                                                                                                                                                    
    35. EIC compliance and self-employment      tyba 12/31/95.........................         13        252        261        265         272         276         282        1,062        1,619
     taxes.                                                                                                                                                                                     
    36. Modify definition of disqualified       tyba 12/31/95.........................         11        111        122        132         143         158         171          519          846
     investment income test.                                                                                                                                                                    
    37. Modify dependent care credit..........  1/1/97................................  .........        128        377        433         493         544         622        1,431        2,597
                                               -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Net Total...............................  ......................................       -507     -6,414     -6,552     -6,551     -10,582      -3,793      12,763      -30,604      -21,638
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Gain of less than $5 million.                                                                                                                                                               
\2\ Gain of less than $25 million.                                                                                                                                                              
\3\ Gain of less than $30 million.                                                                                                                                                              
\4\ No new suspense accounts could be established in taxable years ending after 9/13/95. The income in existing suspense accounts would be recognized in equal installments over a 20-year      
  period beginning with the first taxable year beginning after 9/13/95.                                                                                                                         
\5\ Effective for taxable years beginning after 12/31/95 with respect to obligations acquired after 12/7/95.                                                                                    
\6\ Includes interaction with 50% DRD provision.                                                                                                                                                
\7\ Gain of less than $500,000.                                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Note.--Details may not add to totals due to rounding.                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Legend for ``Effective'' column: aiolRSg=after issuance of Internal Revenue Service guideline; da=distributions after; dia=debt issued after; DOE=date of enactment; dpa=dividends paid after;  
  eoa=exchanges on or after; icoa=involuntary conversions occurring after; ipoaa-interest paid or accurred after; NOLgtyba=NOLs generated taxable years beginning after; ppisa=property placed  
  in service after; rda 90 daDOE=returns due after 90 days after date of enactment; sea=sales and exchanges after; tyba=taxable years beginning after.                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Source: Joint Committee on Taxation.                                                                                                                                                            

                                     U.S. Congress,
                               Congressional Budget Office,
                                   Washington, DC, January 6, 1996.
Hon. Newt Gingrich,
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Washington, DC.
    Dear Mr. Speaker: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has 
prepared a preliminary analysis of the President's budgetary 
submission of this date. The analysis is based on draft 
legislative language or on other descriptive material provided 
by staff. It employs CBO's updated economic and technical 
estimating assumptions, which incorporate the economic effects 
of balancing the federal budget by 2002 and are described in 
the CBO memorandum ``Economic and Budget Outlook: December 1995 
Update.'' The analysis also assumes, as specified by staff, 
that the projected adjustment to reduce the formula bias in the 
consumer price index (CPI) will reduce the rate of growth of 
the CPI by 0.3 percentage points a year, which is the upper end 
of the range estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. CBO's 
December baseline assumes a reduction near the middle of the 
range.
    Under these assumptions, the proposal would result in 
deficits of $153 billion in 1996 and $167 billion in 1997 and a 
surplus of $1 billion in 2002. Compared to the CBO baseline, 
the proposal would reduce the deficit by $220 billion over the 
next five years and by $583 billion over the 1996-2002 period. 
Table 1 summarizes the proposed policy changes. Table 2 shows 
the estimated savings from the changes in direct spending and 
revenues that would result from enactment of each title of the 
proposal.
            Sincerely,
                                          Paul Van de Water
                                   (For June E. O'Neill, Director).
    Attachments.

                         TABLE 1.--DEMOCRATIC PLAN CHANGES FROM CBO'S DECEMBER BASELINE                         
                                    [By fiscal years, in billions of dollars]                                   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                         Total  
                                          1996     1997     1998     1999     2000     2001     2002   1996-2002
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBO December Baseline Deficit \1\.....      172      182      183      195      204      211      228         * 
Baseline Adjustments \2\..............        0        0       -2       -2       -3       -6       -6       -19 
                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adjusted December Baseline............      172      182      181      193      201      205      222         * 
                                       =========================================================================
Democratic Plan Policies:                                                                                       
    Outlays:                                                                                                    
        Discretionary \3\:                                                                                      
            Freeze \4\................       -8       -9      -11      -32      -49      -66      -84      -258 
            Savings relative to freeze       -4        2       -3        2        2       -9      -26       -37 
                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Subtotal................      -12       -7      -14      -30      -47      -75      110      -295 
                                       =========================================================================
        Mandatory:                                                                                              
            Medicare..................    (\5\)       -3       -6      -12      -19      -26      -35      -102 
            Medicaid..................        0    (\5\)       -2       -7      -10      -13      -19       -52 
            Other.....................       -7       -9      -12      -15      -15      -15      -22       -95 
                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Subtotal................       -7      -12      -21      -34      -45      -54      -76      -249 
        Net Interest                      (\5\)       -2       -3       -5       -9      -14      -23       -56 
                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Total Outlays...........      -20      -21      -37      -69     -100     -143     -209      -599 
    Revenues \6\                          (\5\)        6        6        6       10        3      -14        17 
                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Total Policies..........      -20      -15      -32      -63      -90     -140     -223      -583 
Democratic Plan Deficit...............      153      167      149      130      110       65       -1        *  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Projections assume that discretionary spending is equal to the spending limits that are in effect through   
  1998 and will increase with inflation after 1998.                                                             
\2\ The Democratic plan assumes that the anticipated change in the consumer price index (CPI) methodology used  
  by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will reduce the rate of growth of the CPI by 0.3 percentage points a  
  year, which is the upper end of the range estimated by the BLS. CBO's December baseline assumes a reduction   
  near the middle of the range.                                                                                 
\3\ Discretionary savings specified by staff.                                                                   
\4\ Savings from freezing 1996-2002 appropriations at the nominal level appropriated for 1995.                  
\5\ Less than $500 million.                                                                                     
\6\ Revenue increases are shown with a negative sign because they decrease the deficit. Includes Earned Income  
  Credit outlays.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                
 Notes.--*=not applicable. Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding.                                   
                                                                                                                
 Sources: Congressional Budget Office: Joint Committee on Taxation.                                             


  TABLE 2.--SAVINGS FROM POLICY CHANGES IN THE DEMOCRATIC PLAN BASED ON CBO'S DECEMBER BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS, BY 
                                                      TITLE                                                     
                                    [By fiscal years, in billions of dollars]                                   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                         Total, 
                 Title                    1996     1997     1998     1999     2000     2001     2002   1996-2002
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I--Banking and Housing:                                                                                         
    Outlays...........................     -4.3      (1)     -0.1      0.2      0.1      0.1     -0.5       -4.4
II--Spectrum Allocation:                                                                                        
    Outlays...........................     -0.2     -1.8     -2.7     -3.6     -3.1     -2.7     -7.4      -21.3
III--Medicaid:                                                                                                  
    Outlays...........................        0     -0.4     -2.4     -6.7    -10.3    -13.2    -18.6      -51.7
IV--Medicare:                                                                                                   
    Outlay............................      (1)     -2.7     -6.1    -12.3    -19.1    -26.0    -35.4     -101.5
V--Welfare Reform:                                                                                              
    Outlays...........................     -0.9     -4.8     -5.8     -6.3     -6.9     -6.9     -7.6      -39.1
    Revenues 2........................     -0.1     -0.3     -0.6     -0.7     -0.8     -0.8     -0.9       -4.2
    Deficit...........................     -1.0     -5.1     -6.4     -7.0     -7.6     -7.7     -8.5      -43.3
VI--Federal Retirement:                                                                                         
    Outlays...........................     -0.5     -1.8     -2.7     -2.7     -2.7     -2.7     -2.9      -15.9
    Revenues 2........................     -0.2     -0.4     -0.5     -0.6     -0.6     -0.6     -0.6       -3.5
    Deficit...........................     -0.7     -2.2     -3.2     -3.2     -3.3     -3.3     -3.5      -19.4
VII--Veterans Provisions:                                                                                       
    Outlays...........................     -0.2     -0.3     -0.4     -1.2     -1.3     -1.3     -1.4       -6.1
VIII--Asset Sales, User Fees, and                                                                               
 other Mandatory Provisions:                                                                                    
    Outlays...........................     -1.3     -0.5     -0.6     -1.5     -1.3     -1.3     -2.2       -8.7
IX--Revenues:                                                                                                   
    Revenues 1, 3.....................      0.5      6.5      6.9      7.0     11.1      4.3    -12.1       24.2
X--Budget Enforcement:                                                                                          
    Outlays...........................        0        0        0        0        0        0        0          0
Total:                                                                                                          
    Outlays...........................     -7.3    -12.3    -20.7    -33.9    -44.6    -53.8    -76.0     -248.7
    Revenues 2, 3.....................      0.2      5.8      5.8      5.8      9.7      2.9    -13.7       16.5
    Deficit...........................     -7.1     -6.5    -14.9    -28.2    -34.9    -60.9    -89.7     -232.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Less than $50 million.                                                                                      
\2\ Revenue increases are shown with a negative sign because they reduce the deficit.                           
\3\ Includes Earned Income Credit outlays.                                                                      
                                                                                                                
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Joint Committee on Taxation.                                              

                                
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