[Analytical Perspectives]
[Current Services Estimates]
[25. Current Services Estimates]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
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CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES
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25. CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES
Table 25-1. BASELINE CATEGORY TOTALS
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........................... 2,568 2,662 2,815 2,954 3,110 3,301 3,454
Outlays:
Discretionary:
DOD-Military................... 528 555 538 506 512 523 536
Homeland security.............. 32 36 39 39 40 41 42
International affairs.......... 35 37 36 35 37 38 38
Other discretionary............ 448 481 479 477 480 488 498
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, Discretionary...... 1,042 1,109 1,092 1,057 1,070 1,090 1,114
Mandatory:
Social Security................ 581 610 645 682 722 765 814
Medicare....................... 371 391 420 449 495 495 553
Medicaid and SCHIP............. 197 211 224 239 256 275 297
Other mandatory................ 302 338 364 376 391 383 401
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory.......... 1,451 1,551 1,653 1,746 1,864 1,918 2,065
Net interest..................... 237 241 249 262 274 280 284
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, outlays..................... 2,730 2,900 2,993 3,065 3,207 3,289 3,464
Unified deficit(-)/surplus(+).... -162 -239 -178 -111 -97 12 -10
On-budget...................... -343 -431 -382 -334 -336 -236 -267
Off-budget..................... 181 192 204 223 239 248 257
Memorandum:
BEA baseline deficit............. -162 -238 -231 -200 -50 136 136
Do not extend emergencies...... ......... ......... 52 96 104 108 111
Correct growth rates for pay... ......... ......... 2 2 3 3 3
Remove special rule for
administrative
expenses of selected programs ......... ......... * * * 1 1
Extend certain tax provisions.. ......... -* -2 -13 -158 -237 -255
Related debt service........... ......... -* 1 4 5 1 -4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline deficit......... -162 -239 -178 -111 -97 12 -10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.
Current services or ``baseline'' estimates are designed to provide a
neutral benchmark against which policy proposals can be measured. Since
the early 1970s when the first requirements for the calculation of a
``current services'' baseline were enacted, a variety of concepts and
measures have been employed. Shortly after enactment of the Budget
Enforcement Act (BEA) which provided detailed rules for calculating a
baseline, there was a consensus to define the current services estimates
according to those rules. However, that baseline has serious technical
flaws, which compromise its ability to serve as a neutral measure. This
section provides detailed estimates of a baseline that corrects these
flaws. It also discusses alternative formulations for the baseline.
Ideally, a current services baseline would provide a projection of
estimated receipts, outlays, deficits or surpluses, and budget authority
needed to reflect this year's enacted policies and programs for each
year in the future. Because such a concept would be nearly impossible to
apply across all segments of the government, the baseline has instead
become largely a mechanical construct.
Moreover, it is important to discuss what a baseline is not. The
baseline is not a prediction of the final outcome of the annual budget
process, nor is it a proposed budget. By itself, the current services
baseline commits no one to any particular policy. Instead, the
commitments or constraints reflected in the current services estimates
are based on the tax and spending policies contained in current law.
The current services baseline is used in a variety of ways: It can
warn of future problems, either for Government fiscal policy as a whole
or for individual tax and spending programs. It is also a ``policy-
neutral'' benchmark against which the President's Budget and
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other budget proposals can be compared to measure the magnitude of the
proposed changes. Table 25-1 shows current services estimates of
receipts, outlays, and surpluses for 2007 through 2013. They are based
on the economic assumptions described later in this chapter. The
estimates are shown on a unified budget basis, i.e., the off-budget
receipts and outlays of the Social Security trust funds and the Postal
Service Fund are added to the on-budget receipts and outlays to
calculate the unified budget totals. The table also shows the current
services estimates by major component. The BEA baseline deficits are
shown as a memorandum in the table. Table 25-2 shows the changes
proposed in the President's Budget relative to the current services
estimates. Descriptions of the Budget proposals can be found in the main
Budget volume.
Table 25-2. IMPACT OF BUDGET POLICY
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009-2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Services Baseline Deficit.. -239 -178 -111 -97 12 -10 -383
Proposals:
Economic growth package.......... -127 -26 4 2 -* -2 -23
Other revenue proposals \1\...... -16 -98 -41 -52 -49 -43 -283
Global war on terror and other:
emergencies.................... -28 -101 -50 -17 -12 -11 -190
Discretionary policy:
Security....................... * -21 -25 -26 -23 -20 -114
Non-security................... * -2 24 45 60 76 203
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary.......... * -22 -2 19 38 56 88
Mandatory proposals:
Social security personal ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... -31 -31
accounts......................
Other proposals................ * 17 39 51 59 70 237
2009 Budget Deficit................ -410 -407 -160 -95 48 29 -585
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.
Note: Each line includes debt service.
\1\ Includes outlay impact of revenue proposals.
Conceptual Basis for Estimates
Receipts and outlays are divided into two categories that are
important for calculating the current services estimates: those
controlled by authorizing legislation (direct spending and receipts) and
those controlled through the annual appropriations process
(discretionary spending). Different estimating rules apply to each
category. There are numerous alternative rules that could be used to
develop current services estimates for both categories. The next section
discusses some alternatives that might be considered.
Direct spending and receipts.--Direct spending includes the major
entitlement programs, such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,
Federal employee retirement, unemployment compensation, Food Stamps and
other means-tested entitlements. It also includes such programs as
deposit insurance and farm price and income supports, where the
Government is legally obligated to make payments under certain
conditions. Receipts and direct spending are alike in that they involve
ongoing activities that generally operate under permanent authority
(they do not require annual authorization), and the underlying statutes
generally specify the tax rates or benefit levels that must be collected
or paid, and who must pay or who is eligible to receive benefits. The
current services baseline assumes that receipts and direct spending
programs continue in the future as specified by current law. The
budgetary impact of anticipated regulations and administrative actions
that are permissible under current law are also reflected in the
estimates.
If a baseline is intended to reflect current law, then the provisions
of law providing spending authority and the authority to collect taxes
or other receipts that expire under current law should be assumed to
expire. However, the current services baseline assumes extension of
several types of authority:
Expiring provisions affecting excise taxes dedicated to a
trust fund are assumed to be extended at current rates. During
the projection period of 2008 through 2013, the only taxes
affected by this exception are taxes deposited in the Airport
and Airway trust fund, which expire on February 29, 2008, and
taxes deposited in the Highway trust fund, the Leaking
Underground Storage Tank trust fund, and the Sport Fish
Restoration and Boating Safety trust fund, which expire on
September 30, 2011.
Direct spending programs that will expire under current law
are assumed to be extended if their 2008 outlays exceed $50
million. For example, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
and child care entitlement to States are scheduled to expire
at the end of 2010. The baseline estimates provided here
assume continuation of these pro
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grams through the projection period. However, programs enacted
after the enactment of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 that
are explicitly temporary in nature expire in the baseline even
if their current year outlays exceed the $50 million
threshold. For example, the Secure Rural Schools and Community
Self-Determination Act payments to counties impacted by the
reduction of shared receipts associated with lower levels of
timer harvesting on Federal lands are assumed to expire as
scheduled in 2007 even though over $400 million of the 2007
payment are estimated to be made in the current year.
Certain provisions in the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts that were
clearly not intended to be temporary are assumed to continue
past their expiration date. These provisions include
reductions in individual income taxes on capital gains and
dividends, increased expensing for small businesses, repeal of
estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes, modification of
gift taxes, and reductions in income taxes scheduled to sunset
on December 31, 2010. Unlike the two extensions discussed
above, the BEA baseline definitions, developed before the
enactment of the 2001 and 2003 tax acts, do not provide for
extension of these provisions.
Discretionary spending.--Discretionary programs differ in one
important aspect from direct spending programs--Congress provides
spending authority for almost all discretionary programs one year at a
time. The spending authority is normally provided in the form of annual
appropriations. Absent appropriations of additional funds in the future,
discretionary programs would cease to exist after existing balances were
spent. If the baseline was intended to reflect current law, then a
baseline would only reflect the expenditure of remaining balances from
appropriations laws. Instead the current services baseline provides a
mechanical definition for discretionary programs that is somewhat
arbitrary. The definition used here attempts to keep discretionary
spending level in real terms. For 2008, the current services estimates
for discretionary programs are equal to enacted 2008 appropriations. For
2009 through 2013, funding for most accounts is equal to this 2008 level
adjusted for inflation. The inflation rates used here are similar to
those required by the BEA but adjusted to remove the overcompensation
for federal pay inherent in the BEA definition. Unlike the BEA
requirements, these current services estimates assume that federal pay
raises are effective in January, as required under current law. At the
time the BEA was enacted, it ignored the nearly contemporaneous
enactment of the Federal Employees Compensation Act of 1991 that shifted
the effective date of federal employee pay raises from October to
January. Also, the estimates presented here exclude the special
adjustment for administrative expenses for certain benefit programs
required by the BEA. This provision is inconsistent with the baseline
rules for other accounts that fund administrative costs. In addition,
the baseline estimates presented here assume that emergency
appropriations enacted for 2008, which primarily provide funding for the
Global War on Terror, are one-time only expenditures. The BEA requires
that the baseline assume funding for emergencies repeatedly through the
projection period.
Alternative Formulations of Baseline
Throughout much of U.S. history, budget proposals were often compared
to either the President's request or the previous year's budget. In the
early 1970s, policymakers developed the concept of a baseline to provide
a more neutral benchmark for comparisons. While the Congressional Budget
Act of 1974 included a requirement that OMB and the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) provide estimates of a current services baseline, the
definition of the baseline was very general and specific guidance was
not provided.
Subsequent budget laws have specified in increasing detail the
requirements for constructing baselines. Current services estimates for
direct spending programs and receipts are generally estimated based on
laws currently in place and most major programs are assumed to continue
even past sunset dates set in law. In the case of receipts, the BEA
requires only the extension of trust fund excise taxes, but otherwise
bases the estimates on current law. For discretionary programs, these
acts instituted a precise definition of baseline with numerous rules for
its construction.
It is clear, however, that a number of baseline definitions could be
developed that differ for those presented in this chapter:
Extend provisions affecting parts of mandatory programs.
Currently, mandatory programs that have current year outlays
of over $50 million are generally assumed to continue.
However, provisions of law that affect parts of mandatory
programs, even those that have been consistently extended in
the past, are assumed to expire as scheduled.
Do not extend any authorizing laws that expire. If all
mandatory programs were assumed to expire as scheduled,
deficits for 2009 through 2013 would be $448 billion lower
than the current estimates. (See the section below on major
program assumptions for details on mandatory program
extensions assumed in the estimates.) If excise taxes were
allowed to expire, the deficit would be $149 billion higher
over the period 2009 through 2013. If certain provisions of
the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts were assumed to expire, the deficit
would be $708 billion lower over the period.
Straightline appropriations. If all discretionary budgetary
resources were to be the same in each year in the projection
period as provided for the current year, total outlays would
be $17 billion lower in 2009 and $342 billion lower over the
period 2009 through 2013.
Do not extend any appropriations. The current treatment of
expiring provisions is inconsistent
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with the treatment of discretionary spending. All
discretionary spending continues whether there is
authorization for the program or not and whether funds have
already been provided or not. In nearly all cases, funds for
discretionary programs have not been provided in advance for
years beyond the current year. If rules consistent with the
treatment of other expiring provisions were applied to
discretionary spending, no new budgetary resources would be
provided. Thus, under a strict ``current law'' approach, the
only discretionary outlays that would be included in the
baseline would be the lagged spending from the current year
budgetary resource. If this rule were followed, outlays in
2009 would be reduced by $602 billion relative to the current
estimates. Clearly this would provide an unrealistic estimate
of future spending and the government's future fiscal
position.
Table 25-3 provides estimates for a variety of changes in baseline
definitions that could be considered.
Table 25-3. ALTERNATIVE BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009-2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline surplus/deficit... -239 -178 -111 -97 12 -10 -383
Alternative assumptions (``-''
represents deficit increase):
Extend provisions affecting parts
of
mandatory programs \1\......... -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -14
Do not extend any authorizing
laws:
Mandatory spending............. 22 66 73 93 104 112 448
Trust fund excise taxes........ -7 -12 -14 -15 -52 -56 -149
Certain provisions of the 2001
and
2003 Tax Acts................ * 2 13 163 250 280 708
Straightline appropriations...... ......... 17 39 66 95 126 342
Do not extend any appropriations. ......... 602 891 1,035 1,140 1,229 4,897
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.
\1\ Estimates provided here are the totals for the illustrative provisions shown in Table 25-5. This is not a
complete listing of all provisions that expire.
Table 25-4. SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
(Fiscal years; dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars................................. 14,312 15,027 15,792 16,580 17,395 18,243
Real, chained (2000) dollars.................... 11,808 12,154 12,523 12,890 13,258 13,632
Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars................................. 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9
Real, chained (2000) dollars.................... 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8
Inflation measures (percent change, year over
year):
GDP chained price index......................... 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Consumer price index (all urban)................ 3.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Unemployment rate, civilian (percent)............... 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Interest rates (percent):
91-day Treasury bills............................. 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3
10-year Treasury notes............................ 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3
MEMORANDUM:
Related program assumptions:
Automatic benefit increases (percent):
Social security and veterans pensions......... 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3
Federal employee retirement................... 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3
Food stamps................................... 4.6 3.4 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3
Insured unemployment rate....................... 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
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Economic Assumptions
The current services estimates are based on the same economic
assumptions as the President's Budget, which are based on enactment of
the President's Budget proposals. The economy and the budget interact.
Changes in economic conditions significantly alter the estimates of tax
receipts, unemployment benefits, entitlement payments that are
automatically adjusted for changes in cost-of-living (COLAs), income
support programs for low-income individuals, and interest on the Federal
debt. In turn, Government tax and spending policies influence prices,
economic growth, consumption, savings, and investment. Because of these
interactions, it would be reasonable, from an economic perspective, to
assume different economic paths for the current services baseline and
the President's Budget. However, this would diminish the value of
current services estimates as a benchmark for measuring proposed policy
changes, because it would then be difficult to separate the effects of
proposed policy changes from the effects of different economic
assumptions. By using the same economic assumptions for current services
and the President's Budget, this potential source of confusion is
eliminated. The economic assumptions underlying both the budget and the
current service estimates are summarized in Table 25-4. The economic
outlook underlying these assumptions is discussed in greater detail in
Chapter 12 of this volume.
Table 25-5. BENEFICIARY PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR BENEFIT PROGRAMS
(Annual average, in thousands)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Actual -----------------------------------------------------------
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farmer direct payments.................... 1,486 1,479 1,471 1,464 1,457 1,449 1,442
Federal family education loans............ 6,085 6,442 6,689 6,943 7,209 7,485 7,775
Federal direct student loans.............. 1,656 1,707 1,769 1,834 1,901 1,972 2,045
Medicaid/State Childrens' Health Insurance 53,900 55,200 54,800 55,000 55,200 55,400 55,800
Program..................................
Medicare-eligible military retiree health 1,922 1,956 1,987 2,011 2,040 2,086 2,136
benefits.................................
Medicare:
Hospital insurance...................... 43,585 44,329 45,187 46,110 47,154 48,490 50,003
Supplementary medical insurance......... 40,764 41,255 41,993 42,748 43,539 44,647 45,977
Prescription Drug Plans and Medicare
Advantage
Prescription Drug Plans............... 23,858 25,170 26,554 27,954 29,430 31,110 32,382
Retiree Drug Subsidy.................... 6,688 6,658 6,649 6,647 6,659 6,708 6,777
Managed Care Enrollment \1\............. 8,093 9,227 10,096 10,978 11,787 12,506 13,062
Railroad retirement....................... 571 565 558 552 548 543 540
Federal civil service retirement.......... 2,463 2,494 2,512 2,534 2,556 2,578 2,599
Military retirement....................... 2,073 2,094 2,106 2,112 2,113 2,112 2,108
Unemployment insurance.................... 7,632 8,049 8,298 8,344 8,421 8,432 8,461
Food stamps............................... 26,466 27,796 27,983 27,524 26,824 26,526 26,252
Child nutrition........................... 30,558 31,557 32,062 32,511 32,901 33,230 33,529
Foster care and adoption assistance....... 602 620 634 649 665 682 701
Supplemental security income (SSI):
Aged.................................... 1,111 1,107 1,106 1,106 1,111 1,121 1,136
Blind/disabled.......................... 5,892 6,048 6,208 6,359 6,513 6,664 6,796
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, SSI......................... 7,003 7,155 7,314 7,465 7,624 7,785 7,932
Child care and development fund \2\....... 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
Social security (OASDI):
Old age and survivor insurance.......... 40,681 41,172 41,994 43,021 44,068 45,190 46,495
Disability insurance.................... 8,676 9,002 9,312 9,552 9,797 10,024 10,196
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, OASDI....................... 49,357 50,174 51,306 52,573 53,865 55,214 56,691
Veterans compensation:
Veterans................................ 2,789 2,900 3,015 3,123 3,219 3,309 3,395
Survivors (non-veterans)................ 333 337 342 347 353 359 366
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, Veterans compensation....... 3,122 3,237 3,356 3,470 3,572 3,669 3,761
Veterans pensions:
Veterans................................ 325 322 319 316 312 309 306
Survivors (non-veterans)................ 198 200 199 198 196 195 194
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, Veterans pensions........... 523 522 518 513 509 504 500
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Enrollment figures include only beneficiaries who receive both Part A and Part B services through managed
care.
\2\ Includes children served through the CCDF (including TANF transfers) and through funds spent directly on
child care in the Social Services Block Grant and TANF programs.
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Major Programmatic Assumptions
A number of programmatic assumptions must be made in order to
calculate the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the
number of beneficiaries who will receive payments from the major benefit
programs and annual cost-of-living adjustments in the indexed programs.
Assumptions on baseline caseload projections for the major benefit
programs are shown in Table 25-5. Assumptions about various automatic
cost-of-living-adjustments are shown in Table 25-4.
It is also necessary to make assumptions about the continuation of
expiring programs and provisions. In the estimates provided here,
expiring excise taxes dedicated to a trust fund are extended at current
rates. Certain income tax provisions from the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts,
that were not designed to be temporary in nature, are assumed to be
permanent for purposes of calculating revenue estimates. In general,
mandatory programs with current year spending of at least $50 million
are also assumed to continue. All discretionary programs with enacted
non-emergency appropriations in the current year are assumed to
continue. However, specific provisions of law that affect mandatory
programs (but are not necessary for program operation) are allowed to
expire as scheduled. For example, under the Medicare, Medicaid, and
SCHIP Extension Act of 2007, Medicaid Transitional Medical Assistance
will expire at the end of June 2008. The baseline does not assume
additional spending under this authority beyond that point. Table 25-6
provides a listing of mandatory programs and taxes assumed to continue
in the baseline after their expiration.
Many other important assumptions must be made in order to calculate
the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the timing and
substance of regulations that will be issued over the projection period,
the use of administrative discretion provided under current law, and
other assumptions about the way programs operate. Table 25-6 lists many
of these assumptions and their impact on the baseline estimates. It is
not intended to be an exhaustive listing; the variety and complexity of
Government programs are too great to provide a complete list. Instead,
some of the more important assumptions are shown.
Table 25-6. IMPACT OF REGULATIONS, EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS, AND OTHER ASSUMPTIONS IN THE BASELINE
(In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGULATIONS
Finalized
Foster care and adoption assistance........... 39 64 65 95 96 97
Old age and survivors insurance (OASI) and
disability insurance (DI):
Reduction of Title II benefits under family 19 20 21 23 23 23
maximum in cases of dual entitlement.......
Trial work period........................... 2 1 1 ......... ......... .........
Continuing disability review failure to -12 -12 -12 -13 -14 -15
cooperate process..........................
Expedited reinstatement of disability NA NA NA NA NA NA
benefits...................................
Amendments to the quick disability 39 ......... 1 -4 -5 -8
determination process......................
Exemption of work activity as a basis for a 24 39 54 70 87 105
continuing disability review...............
Medicaid: \1\
Payment reform.............................. -40 -790 -1,170 -1,210 -1,250 -1,290
School-based services reform................ -64 -635 -675 -720 -770 -820
Supplemental security income (SSI):
Title XVI cross-program recover............. -15 -15 -20 -20 -20 -20
Student earned income exclusion............. 4 5 5 5 5 5
Expedited reinstatement of disability NA NA NA NA NA NA
benefits...................................
Amendments to the quick disability 8 ......... ......... -1 -1 -1
determination process......................
Exemption of work activity as a basis for a 1 1 2 2 2 3
continuing disability review...............
Not Finalized
Child support enforcement..................... ......... 8 4 2 3 3
Foster care and adoption assistance:
Adoption and foster care analysis and ......... 6 12 14 9 9
reporting system (AFCARS)..................
National Youth in Transition Database....... 6 6 7 6 6 6
Medicaid: \1\
Graduate medical education reform........... ......... -150 -290 -450 -460 -470
Rehabilitation reform....................... -110 -360 -520 -570 -610 -660
Managed care reform......................... ......... -100 -100 -200 -200 -200
Free care reform............................ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare: \1\
Withhold payment for hospital acquired ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
conditions.................................
Program integrity actions................... ......... -150 -110 -90 -90 -90
Adjustments to skilled nursing facility ......... -720 -900 -960 -1,030 -1,090
payments...................................
Adjustments to hospice wage payments........ ......... -110 -360 -550 -610 -660
Adjustments to inpatient hospital payments.. ......... -80 -90 -110 -110 -120
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EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS
Provisions Extended in the Baseline (effect of
extension)
Spending:
Abstinence education (Children and Family 5 25 43 48 49 50
Services)..................................
Aviation Excise Taxes....................... ......... 12,570 13,328 14,073 14,861 15,690
Child care entitlement to States............ ......... ......... ......... 2,383 2,908 2,917
Child nutrition:
Summer food service program............... ......... ......... 341 358 378 398
State administrative expenses............. ......... ......... 191 201 208 216
CCC market access, bioenergy and commodity
programs:
Counter-cyclical payment program.......... ......... 50 99 86 164 234
Dairy price support program............... ......... 90 80 71 63 52
Dairy export incentive program............ 3 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Direct payment program.................... 1,101 5,182 5,182 5,182 5,182 5,182
Farm-to-consumer direct marketing act..... 1 1 1 1 1 1
Marketing assistance loan and LDP program. 5 27 22 72 171 204
Milk income loss contract program......... ......... 135 115 100 85 65
Sugar nonrecourse loan program............ ......... 96 119 98 156 147
Market access program..................... 109 200 200 200 200 200
Export credit guarantee programs (GSM 102) 37 31 20 18 18 18
Food for progress......................... 277 340 340 340 340 340
Facilities financing guarantee............ ......... 3 3 3 3 3
Cotton Statistics and Estimates Act of 1927. 42 42 42 42 42 42
Conservation Reserve Program................ ......... 10 91 276 532 851
Farm security and rural investment:
Ground and surface water conservation..... 70 67 65 62 61 61
Farm and ranch lands protection program... 29 89 89 93 97 97
Federal-Aid Highways........................ ......... ......... 802 724 675 658
Food Stamps:
Benefit costs............................. 17,446 38,279 38,542 38,547 39,138 39,671
State administrative expenses............. 1,310 2,723 2,829 2,939 3,053 3,172
Employment and training................... 177 363 372 382 392 402
Other program cost........................ 34 79 70 72 73 75
Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico...... 811 1,678 1,720 1,759 1,800 1,841
Food distribution on Indian Reservations.. 44 92 94 97 98 101
The emergency food assistance program 70 140 140 140 140 140
commodities..............................
Promoting safe and stable families.......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 128 274
Temporary assistance for needy families
(TANF) resources:
TANF...................................... ......... ......... ......... 12,373 15,394 16,235
Contingency fund.......................... ......... ......... ......... 241 284 286
Welfare research.......................... ......... ......... ......... 1 6 12
Trade Adjustment Assistance for Workers..... 383 764 926 981 1,010 1,039
Veterans Compensation:
VBA OBRA and VBA IT OBRA.................. ......... 1 2 2 2 2
Veterans Pension:
Income Verification Match................. ......... ......... -3 -7 -11 -14
Sunset Medicaid Provision................. ......... ......... ......... ......... -576 -576
VBA OBRA and VBA IT OBRA.................. ......... 9 9 9 9 10
VHA OBRA and VHA IT OBRA.................. ......... 16 17 18 20 21
Veterans compensation--annual cost of living ......... 687 1,460 2,330 3,272 4,272
adjustment.................................
Revenues:
Airports and Airway Trust Fund Taxes........ 6,981 11,964 12,696 13,416 14,176 14,979
Sport Fish Restoration and Boating.......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 516 534
Highway Trust Fund Taxes.................... ......... ......... ......... ......... 33,892 34,465
LUST Taxes.................................. ......... ......... ......... ......... 206 208
Provisions Not Extended in the Baseline
Spending:
Biobased product testing.................... 1 1 1 1 1 1
Biodiesel fuel education.................... 1 1 1 1 1 1
Biomass research and development............ 14 14 14 14 14 14
Coastal Impact Assistance................... ......... ......... ......... 250 250 250
EPA:
Pesticide maintenance fee................. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... -22
Pesticide registration service fee........ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... -3
Farm bill programs:
Klamath Basin............................. 6 7 8 8 8 8
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Foreign market development (cooperator) 19 35 35 35 35 35
program..................................
Grassland reserve program................. 7 14 15 15 15 15
Small watershed rehabilitation program.... ......... 38 56 65 65 65
Technical assistance specialty crops...... 1 2 2 2 2 2
Trade adjustment for farmers.............. 90 90 90 90 90 90
Wetlands reserve program.................. 48 19 19 88 123 149
Wildlife habitat incentives program....... 20 20 36 47 57 66
Forest County Safety Net Payments........... ......... 438 451 464 478 493
Medicaid:
Transitional medical assistance........... 554 580 601 625 650 676
Medicare low-income premium assistance.... 425 470 515 570 635 705
Renewable Energy Systems and Energy 23 23 23 23 23 23
Efficiency.................................
Rural Broadband Access Loan Program......... 10 10 10 10 10 10
TANF--supplemental grants................... ......... 236 294 310 316 319
Trade Adjustment Assistance--Alternative TAA ......... 7 23 32 34 34
Value-Added Agricultural Product Market 40 40 40 40 40 40
Development Grants.........................
Veterans Housing:
Increases the loan fee for certain loans.. ......... ......... ......... ......... -234 -235
Veterans Compensation:
Health and Human Services................. ......... ......... ......... ......... 1 1
New Hires Directory Match................. ......... ......... ......... ......... -1 -1
OTHER IMPORTANT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS
Child support enforcement (CSE):
Alternative penalties for Family Support Act
systems and State
Disbursement Unit requirements............ -7 -7 -7 -7 ......... .........
Food stamps:
Tax Offset, recoupment, and general claims -189 -194 -198 -203 -207 -211
collections................................
Quality control liabilities................. -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
Allocation of administrative costs between -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197
public assistance programs.................
Medicare:
FFS Physicians.............................. 60,636 56,876 55,755 54,282 53,577 56,659
Contracting reform.......................... -70 -280 -550 -580 -620 -660
Part D risk score normalization............. ......... 395 577 728 692 840
Medicaid:
Financial management recoveries............. -633 -682 -734 -792 -855 -923
Vaccines for children, total program costs.. 2,702 2,766 2,710 2,686 2,678 2,630
Remaining upper payment limit-related costs. 1,600 1,400 1,500 1,500 1,600 1,700
Institutional long-term care................ 34,919 36,584 38,549 40,702 42,990 45,474
Home and community based institutional 25,717 28,055 31,312 35,063 39,261 44,069
alternatives...............................
Pharmaceuticals (FFS, net of rebates)....... 9,933 10,820 11,543 12,314 13,111 13,967
Managed care (Including Medicaid MCOs, PHPs, 40,440 44,833 49,280 54,088 59,110 64,451
and PCCM)..................................
State Children's Health Insurance Program 7,600 6,097 5,783 5,334 5,203 5,143
(Title XXI)................................
Approved Demonstrations and Pilot Programs:
Medicare, HI:
Rural Hospice:
Baseline Estimate....................... 3 3 4 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 3 3 4 ......... ......... .........
Mercy Medical Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 2 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 2 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Premier:
Baseline estimate....................... 2,703 2,827 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 2,715 2,839 12 ......... ......... .........
Rural Community Hospital: \3\
Baseline estimate....................... 51 53 33 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 60 63 40 ......... ......... .........
New York Graduate Medical Education:
Baseline estimate....................... 69 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 17 2 ......... ......... ......... .........
Utah Graduate Medical Education:
Baseline estimate....................... 9 9 9 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 9 9 9 ......... ......... .........
Medicare, SMI:
Medicare Health Support Program:
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Program Estimate........................ 81 58 25 ......... ......... .........
[[Page 379]]
Municipal Health Services Program
Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 3 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
United Mine Workers of America (UMWA)
Prescription Drug:
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 6 3 ......... ......... ......... .........
Coordinated Care Disease Management
Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 79 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 79 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Lifemasters Disease Management Dual
Eligibles Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 142 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 142 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Care Management for High-Cost
Beneficiaries:
Baseline estimate....................... 55 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 55 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Low-Vision Rehabilitation:
Baseline estimate....................... 8 8 8 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 10 10 10 ......... ......... .........
Cancer Prevention and Treatment for Ethnic
and Racial Minorities:
Baseline estimate....................... 8 7 8 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 8 7 8 ......... ......... .........
Medical Adult Day Care Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 3 3 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 2 2 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demo to Limit Annual Change in Part D
Premiums:
Baseline estimate:
Demonstration estimate.................. 280 60 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demo to Transition Enrollment of ``Low-
Income Subsidy Beneficiaries:
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 277 240 140 30 ......... .........
Medicare: HI and SMI:
ESRD Disease Management Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 193 203 52 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 193 203 52 ......... ......... .........
Home Health Third-Party Liability
Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 188 191 191 55 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 183 186 186 50 ......... .........
Medicare+Choice Phase I Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 3 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare+Choice Phase II Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 66 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
S/HMO I Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 2,121 2,047 2,293 2,568 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 2,230 2,131 2,345 2,579 ......... .........
S/HMO II Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 760 745 835 935 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 787 766 847 938 ......... .........
Physician Group Practice Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 880 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 880 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Medical Savings Account:
Baseline estimate....................... 1 4 6 8 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
United Mine Workers of American (UMWA)
Health:
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 11 6 ......... ......... ......... .........
Home Health Pay for Performance:
Baseline estimate....................... 1,116 1,513 390 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1,116 1,513 390 ......... ......... .........
PACE for Profit:
Baseline estimate....................... 5 10 15 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 5 10 15 ......... ......... .........
Medicare Care Management Performance:
Baseline estimate....................... 3,728 3,889 3,011 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 3,699 3,837 2,960 14 ......... .........
[[Page 380]]
Medicaid:
Alabama Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 240 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arizona AHCCCS:
Baseline estimate....................... 4,839 5,356 5,932 6,571 ......... .........
Arkansas ARKids B:
Baseline estimate....................... 102 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arkansas Family Planning Services:
Baseline estimate....................... 249 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arkansas Independent Choices (Cash &
Counseling): \5\ \7\
Baseline estimate....................... 5 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arkansas TEFRA:
Baseline estimate....................... 28 31 34 9 ......... .........
California Family Planning: \6\
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
California In-Home Supportive Services
Plus: \5\
Baseline estimate....................... 378 357 ......... ......... ......... .........
California MediCal Hospital/Uninsured
Care:
Baseline estimate....................... 766 766 702 ......... ......... .........
Colorado Consumer Directed Attendant
Support: \5\ \7\
Baseline estimate....................... 3 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Delaware Diamond State Health Plan:
Baseline estimate....................... 286 302 76 ......... ......... .........
District of Columbia Childless Adults:
Baseline estimate....................... 3 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
District of Columbia HIV:
Baseline estimate....................... 14 18 6 ......... ......... .........
Florida Consumer Directed Care Plus (Cash
& Counseling): \5\ \7\
Baseline estimate....................... 26 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Florida Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 967 1,028 ......... ......... ......... .........
Florida MEDS-AD Program:
Baseline estimate....................... 1,072 1,180 1,298 ......... ......... .........
Florida Medicaid Reform:
Baseline estimate....................... 5,662 6,589 7,683 4,137 ......... .........
Hawaii Health QUEST:
Baseline estimate....................... 289 237 ......... ......... ......... .........
Illinois Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 443 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Healthy Indiana Plan:
Baseline estimate....................... 833 1,192 1,299 1,404 1,541 394
IowaCare:
Baseline estimate....................... 117 125 134 ......... ......... .........
Iowa Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 189 205 ......... ......... ......... .........
Kentucky Health Care Partnership Program:
Baseline estimate....................... 568 48 ......... ......... ......... .........
Louisiana Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 483 525 569 ......... ......... .........
Maine HIV:
Baseline estimate....................... 7 7 6 ......... ......... .........
MaineCare Childless Adults:
Baseline estimate....................... 57 57 57 ......... ......... .........
Maryland Health Choice:
Baseline estimate....................... 1,086 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Massachusetts MassHealth:
Baseline estimate....................... 2,960 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Michigan Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 462 503 547 ......... ......... .........
Minnesota Prepaid Med. Assist. Project
Plus:
Baseline estimate....................... 148 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Minnesota Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 284 325 ......... ......... ......... .........
Mississippi Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 146 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Mississippi--Healthier Mississippi:
Baseline estimate....................... 78 86 ......... ......... ......... .........
[[Page 381]]
Missouri Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 277 303 331 ......... ......... .........
Montana Basic Medicaid for Able-Bodied
Adults:
Baseline estimate....................... 39 13 ......... ......... ......... .........
New Jersey Personal Preference (Cash &
Counseling): \5\ \7\
Baseline estimate....................... 3 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
New Mexico Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 114 119 ......... ......... ......... .........
New York Partnership Plan:
Baseline estimate....................... 7,823 7,685 ......... ......... ......... .........
New York Federal-State Health Reform
Partnership:
Baseline estimate....................... 10,907 11,609 12,357 13,153 ......... .........
North Carolina Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 457 494 ......... ......... ......... .........
Oklahoma Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 166 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Oregon Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 169 183 ......... ......... ......... .........
Oregon Independent Choices: \5\ \7\
Baseline estimate....................... 2 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Oregon Health Plan: \2\
Baseline estimate....................... 1,681 1,812 1,960 ......... ......... .........
Pennsylvania Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 307 333 361 ......... ......... .........
Rhode Island Rite Care:
Baseline estimate....................... 169 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
South Carolina Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 396 413 431 ......... ......... .........
TennCare II:
Baseline estimate....................... 4,328 4,708 3,837 ......... ......... .........
Texas Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 1,466 1,633 1,819 2,026 ......... .........
Utah Primary Care Network:
Baseline estimate....................... 110 117 ......... ......... ......... .........
Vermont Long Term Care Plan:
Baseline estimate....................... 135 149 166 ......... ......... .........
Vermont Global Commitment to Health:
Baseline estimate....................... 538 586 639 160 ......... .........
Virginia Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 214 228 244 ......... ......... .........
Washington Take Charge/Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 312 329 ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin BadgerCare:
Baseline estimate....................... 88 92 39 ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin Family Planning:
Baseline estimate....................... 326 387 450 ......... ......... .........
Pharmacy Plus:
Wisconsin Pharmacy Plus:
Demonstration estimate................ 51 62 18 ......... ......... .........
State Children's Health Insurance Program
(Title XXI): \4\
Alaska Denali KidCare:
Demonstration estimate................ 10 11 ......... ......... ......... .........
Hawaii QUEST:
Demonstration estimate................ 9 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Maryland Health Choice: \8\
Demonstration estimate................ 19 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
MinnesotaCare:
Demonstration estimate................ 41 39 ......... ......... ......... .........
New Jersey FamilyCare:
Demonstration estimate................ 173 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Oregon Health Plan 2: \9\
Demonstration estimate................ 40 40 40 ......... ......... .........
Rhode Island (SCHIP RiteCare):
Demonstration estimate................ 11 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin BadgerCare:
Demonstration estimate................ 64 69 36 ......... ......... .........
[[Page 382]]
Health Insurance Flexibility and
Accountability (HIFA) demonstrations
(Medicaid and/or SCHIP): \4\
Arizona HIFA:
Demonstration estimate.................. 29 24 26 28 ......... .........
Arkansas HIFA:
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 8 13 24 31 ......... .........
Baseline estimate (Medicaid funds)...... 1,604 1,813 2,049 2,318 ......... .........
Colorado HIFA:
Demonstration estimate.................. 16 18 ......... ......... ......... .........
Idaho HIFA:
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 14 11 ......... ......... ......... .........
Michigan HIFA:
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 112 24 ......... ......... ......... .........
Nevada HIFA:
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 16 19 21 17 ......... .........
New Mexico HIFA:
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 24 27 ......... ......... ......... .........
Oklahoma Sooner Care Demo+HIFA:
Baseline estimate....................... 1,071 1,137 289 ......... ......... .........
Virginia HIFA:
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 9 10 ......... ......... ......... .........
Joint Medicare and Medicaid:
Minnesota-Dual Eligibles:
Baseline estimate....................... 913 808 904 1,013 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 992 869 942 1,021 ......... .........
Wisconsin Health Partnership Dual Eligible
Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 68 73 82 92 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 76 79 86 93 ......... .........
Massachusetts SCO Dual Eligible
Demonstration:
Baseline estimate....................... 166 171 192 215 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 181 183 199 216 ......... .........
OASI, DI, SSI:
Performance of continuing disability reviews
(baseline levels):
OASDI..................................... -15 -78 -151 -208 -311 -585
SSI....................................... 34 126 243 410 513 769
Collection of overpayments:
OASI...................................... -894 -969 -1,041 -1,112 -1,184 -1,262
DI........................................ -715 -776 -835 -893 -952 -1,013
SSI (federal)............................. -949 -997 -1,049 -1,100 -1,161 -1,218
Debts written off as uncollectable (no
effect on outlays):
OASI...................................... 151 163 176 188 200 213
DI........................................ 544 590 635 680 725 770
SSI (federal)............................. 431 453 477 500 528 554
OASDI:
Payments to states for vocational 88 76 82 90 95 102
rehabilitation...........................
Research and demonstration projects....... 44 37 17 ......... ......... .........
SSI:
Payments from states for state -4,476 -4,667 -4,871 -5,045 -5,365 -5,538
supplemental benefits....................
Payments for state supplemental benefits.. 4,460 4,650 4,855 5,465 4,905 5,520
Fees for administration of State
supplement
Treasury share.......................... -139 -142 -148 -164 -142 -157
SSA share............................... -135 -145 -159 -184 -166 -193
Payments to states for vocational 56 56 59 63 67 71
rehabilitation...........................
Performance of non-disability 528 -104 -63 15 -16 -978
redeterminations (excludes related
overpayment collections reported above)..
Research and demonstration projects....... 28 29 35 35 35 35
State grants and demonstrations-health care:
Ticket to Work Health Grant Programs:
Infrastructure Grant Program.............. 35 40 45 50 55 55
Demonstration to maintain independence and 22 25 5 ......... ......... .........
employment...............................
High-Risk Pools:
Initial Seed Grants....................... 52 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Operation of Pools........................ 10 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Emergency Health Services for Undocumented 221 221 221 32 ......... .........
Aliens.....................................
Pilot Program for National and State 8 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Background Checks..........................
Katrina Relief.............................. 163 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Site Development Grants--Rural PACE......... 7 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Funding for PACE Outliers................... 5 3 3 ......... ......... .........
Drug Surveys and Reports.................... 3 3 3 3 ......... .........
[[Page 383]]
Partnerships for Long-Term Care............. 3 3 3 3 ......... .........
Alternate Non-Emergency Care................ 28 22 13 ......... ......... .........
Psychiatric Residential Treatment 33 42 54 53 32 .........
Demonstration..............................
Money Follows the Person (MFP) Demonstration 217 348 348 348 174 .........
MFP Evaluation and Support.................. 1 2 1 1 1 .........
Medicaid Transformation Grants.............. 73 75 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicaid Integrity Program.................. 97 75 75 75 75 75
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500,000 or less.
NA = Not available.
\1\ Medicare and Medicaid/SCHIP regulations reflect gross outlays.
\2\ Baseline estimates reflect costs absent the demonstration; demonstration estimates reflect costs of the
demonstration. The differences represent the net impact of the demonstration. Any demonstrations are
implicitly assumed in the current services baseline.
\3\ Costs of this demonstration are offset annually by a reduction to inpatient hospital prospective payment
rates.
\4\ The Administration is phasing out HIFA demonstrations, refocusing SCHIP on covering children, and will not
use SCHIP funds to cover parents or childless adults.
\5\ Consumer directed program in which ``plan of care'' is converted to a cash allotment. It is expected that
these will convert to DRA State Plan option upon expiration.
\6\ The Federal Government does not have current estimates for California; the State has been operating under a
temporary extension for three years.
\7\ Expires during 2008 and will convert to DRA State Plan option upon expiration.
\8\ States project covering a portion of their entire demonstration population with Medicaid funds.
\9\ The Oregon Health Plan 2 estimates represent SCHIP State plan costs for 2008. The allotment neutrality
agreement is in the process of being finalized.
Current Services Receipts, Outlays, and Budget Authority
Receipts.--Table 25-7 shows baseline receipts by major source. Total
receipts are projected to increase by $153 billion from 2008 to 2009 and
by $639 billion from 2009 to 2013, largely due to assumed increases in
incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation.
Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $105 billion from
2008 to 2009 under baseline assumptions. This growth of 8.6 percent is
primarily the effect of increased collections resulting from rising
personal incomes. Individual income taxes are projected to grow at an
annual rate of 6.4 percent between 2009 and 2013.
Table 25-7. BASELINE RECEIPTS BY SOURCE
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2007 -----------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes............ 1,163 1,232 1,337 1,421 1,513 1,610 1,713
Corporation income taxes........... 370 349 348 349 366 402 391
Social insurance and retirement 870 910 955 1,011 1,065 1,115 1,169
receipts..........................
On-budget........................ 235 248 258 270 284 297 310
Off-budget....................... 635 662 697 740 781 818 858
Excise taxes....................... 65 69 69 70 76 79 81
Estate and gift taxes.............. 26 27 26 20 1 * 1
Other receipts..................... 74 76 79 84 89 95 100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, receipts.................... 2,568 2,662 2,815 2,954 3,110 3,301 3,454
On-budget........................ 1,933 1,999 2,118 2,214 2,329 2,483 2,595
Off-budget....................... 635 662 697 740 781 818 858
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.
Corporation income taxes are estimated to decline by $0.3 billion
between 2008 and 2009, in large part due to economic factors, an
increase in the estimated receipt loss attributable to the domestic
manufacturing deduction, and an expected decline in payments of back
taxes. Corporation income taxes are projected to increase at an annual
rate of 2.9 percent from 2009 to 2013, reflecting the effect of higher
corporate profits and legislated tax changes.
Social insurance and retirement receipts are estimated to increase by
$45 billion between 2008 and 2009, and by an additional $214 billion
between 2009 and 2013. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total
wages and salaries paid, and scheduled increases in the social security
taxable earnings base from $102,000 in 2008 to $126,900 in 2013.
Excise taxes increase by $12 billion from 2008 to 2013, in large part
due to increased economic activity
[[Page 384]]
and the expiration of various excise tax credits. Estate and gift taxes
remain relatively level until 2009 and then decline beginning in 2010,
reflecting the repeal of the estate tax in that year. Other baseline
receipts (customs duties and miscellaneous receipts) are projected to
increase by $24 billion from 2008 to 2013 in large part due to growth in
imports and increased deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve
System.
Outlays.--Current services outlays are estimated to grow from $2,900
billion in 2008 to $2,993 billion in 2009, a 3.2 percent increase.
Between 2008 and 2013, current services outlays are projected to
increase at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent. Table 25-8 shows the
growth from 2008 to 2009 and average annual growth over the five-year
period for certain discretionary and major mandatory programs.
Even though most discretionary budget authority is assumed to grow
with inflation, outlays for discretionary programs decline slightly from
$1,109 billion in 2008 to $1,092 billion in 2009 and further in 2010.
These declines are due to the baseline assuming no additional spending
for the war beyond what is already enacted. Outlays increase each year
after 2010, reflecting increases in resources to keep pace with
inflation, reaching $1,114 billion in 2013. Entitlement and other
mandatory programs are estimated to grow from $1,551 billion in 2008 to
$1,653 billion in 2009, and to $2,065 billion in 2013, due in large part
to changes in the number of beneficiaries and to automatic cost-of-
living adjustments and other adjustments for inflation. Social Security
outlays grow from $610 billion in 2008 to $814 billion in 2013, an
average annual rate of 5.9 percent. Medicare and Medicaid are projected
to grow at annual average rates of 7.2 and 7.4 percent, respectively,
outpacing inflation. Other areas of growth include veterans programs
(6.6 percent) and unemployment compensation (4.9 percent). Net interest
payments total $241 billion in 2008 and $249 billion in 2009 and
maintain a constant average growth through the projection period.
Tables 25-9 and 25-10 show current services outlays by function and by
agency, respectively. A more detailed presentation of outlays (by
function, subfunction, category, and program) is available on the
Internet and on the CD-ROM enclosed with the printed version of this
document.
Budget authority.--Tables 25-11 and 25-12 show current services
estimates of budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. A
more detailed presentation of budget authority with program level
estimates is available on the Internet and on the CD-ROM enclosed with
the printed version of this document.
Table 25-8. CHANGE IN BASELINE OUTLAY ESTIMATES BY CATEGORY
(Dollar amounts in billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change 2008 to 2009 Change 2008 to 2013
--------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2013 Annual
Amount Percent Amount average
rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
Discretionary:
DOD-Military.......................................................... 555 538 536 -17 -3.0% -18 -0.7%
Homeland security..................................................... 36 39 42 3 7.7% 6 3.2%
International affairs................................................. 37 36 38 -2 -4.4% * 0.3%
Other discretionary................................................... 481 479 498 -2 -0.4% 17 0.7%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary................................................. 1,109 1,092 1,114 -17 -1.6% 5 0.1%
Mandatory:
Farm programs......................................................... 11 14 13 2 19.0% 1 2.3%
Medicaid.............................................................. 204 218 292 14 6.8% 88 7.4%
Other health.......................................................... 26 26 31 * 0.1% 5 3.3%
Medicare.............................................................. 391 420 553 29 7.4% 162 7.2%
Federal employee retirement
and disability...................................................... 109 114 129 5 4.4% 20 3.5%
Unemployment compensation............................................. 35 37 44 3 7.6% 9 4.9%
Other income security programs........................................ 186 192 209 6 3.3% 23 2.3%
Social Security....................................................... 610 645 814 35 5.7% 204 5.9%
Veterans programs..................................................... 45 48 62 3 7.0% 17 6.6%
Other mandatory programs.............................................. 21 19 18 -2 -8.4% -3 -2.9%
Undistributed offsetting receipts..................................... -87 -80 -99 7 -8.4% -12 2.5%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory..................................................... 1,551 1,653 2,065 102 6.6% 514 5.9%
Net interest............................................................ 241 249 284 8 3.4% 44 3.4%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays............................................................. 2,900 2,993 3,464 93 3.2% 563 3.6%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.
[[Page 385]]
Table 25-9. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
(In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2007 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military............................ 529.8 556.7 540.9 508.5 515.4 526.5 539.7
Other...................................................... 22.7 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.3 23.8 24.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense.................................... 552.6 580.7 564.7 532.3 538.7 550.3 564.0
International affairs........................................ 28.5 33.7 33.2 32.8 34.5 35.2 35.3
General science, space, and technology....................... 25.6 27.6 28.5 28.3 28.9 29.6 30.2
Energy....................................................... -0.9 3.0 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.0
Natural resources and environment............................ 31.8 35.6 36.6 34.0 33.7 34.3 35.3
Agriculture.................................................. 17.7 20.9 19.7 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.5
Commerce and housing credit.................................. 0.5 7.4 4.0 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.7
On-Budget.................................................. (-4.6) (6.4) (2.9) (0.7) (0.6) (0.9) (1.7)
Off-Budget................................................. (5.1) (0.9) (1.1) (1.0) (0.5) (0.5) (*)
Transportation............................................... 72.9 80.3 85.5 85.8 86.8 87.8 89.8
Community and regional development........................... 29.6 27.6 23.2 20.4 17.6 16.2 15.8
Education, training, employment, and social services......... 91.7 93.4 89.7 92.7 95.7 97.5 99.3
Health....................................................... 266.4 284.5 300.1 317.1 335.8 358.1 382.1
Medicare..................................................... 375.4 396.2 425.2 454.4 500.2 500.1 558.7
Income security.............................................. 366.0 388.4 402.0 414.2 427.7 426.9 441.6
Social security.............................................. 586.2 615.3 650.2 687.5 727.0 771.0 820.1
On-Budget.................................................. (19.3) (18.7) (22.9) (25.3) (27.5) (30.3) (33.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (566.8) (596.5) (627.3) (662.2) (699.5) (740.7) (786.5)
Veterans benefits and services............................... 72.8 86.6 88.6 92.6 100.6 97.7 106.4
Administration of justice.................................... 41.2 46.2 49.1 48.2 48.4 49.7 51.2
General government........................................... 17.5 19.7 20.4 20.6 21.6 22.7 23.3
Net interest................................................. 237.1 240.6 248.8 262.1 273.8 280.5 284.4
On-Budget.................................................. (343.1) (354.9) (370.6) (393.6) (416.0) (435.2) (452.1)
Off-Budget................................................. (-106.0) (-114.3) (-121.9) (-131.4) (-142.2) (-154.7) (-167.7)
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............ -49.5 -51.4 -54.0 -58.4 -62.2 -66.0 -70.4
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)........... -12.3 -13.1 -13.8 -14.6 -15.5 -16.3 -17.3
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf......... -6.8 -11.1 -10.1 -10.2 -10.7 -11.1 -11.4
Sale of major assets....................................... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... -0.3 ...........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts.................... -13.7 -11.8 -2.2 -0.1 -0.1 ........... ...........
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts................... -82.2 -87.4 -80.1 -83.3 -88.5 -93.7 -99.1
On-Budget................................................ (-69.9) (-74.3) (-66.3) (-68.8) (-72.9) (-77.4) (-81.8)
Off-Budget............................................... (-12.3) (-13.1) (-13.8) (-14.6) (-15.5) (-16.3) (-17.3)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,730.2 2,900.2 2,993.1 3,064.7 3,207.1 3,288.8 3,463.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Budget.................................................. (2,276.6) (2,430.1) (2,500.4) (2,547.5) (2,664.8) (2,718.5) (2,862.0)
Off-Budget................................................. (453.6) (470.1) (492.7) (517.2) (542.3) (570.3) (601.5)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
[[Page 386]]
Table 25-10. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY
(In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2007 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch........................................... 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.1
Judicial Branch.............................................. 6.0 6.2 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5
Agriculture.................................................. 84.4 94.5 95.3 95.6 96.7 98.9 101.2
Commerce..................................................... 6.5 8.2 8.2 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.9
Defense--Military............................................ 529.9 556.7 540.9 508.5 515.4 526.5 539.7
Education.................................................... 66.4 68.0 64.7 67.1 69.5 70.8 72.0
Energy....................................................... 20.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.0 23.4 23.8
Health and Human Services.................................... 672.0 709.2 751.8 797.0 860.9 881.7 963.0
Homeland Security............................................ 39.2 42.3 42.4 40.2 41.1 40.8 41.6
Housing and Urban Development................................ 45.6 52.3 46.1 44.9 42.1 41.6 41.1
Interior..................................................... 10.5 11.1 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.6
Justice...................................................... 23.3 24.9 27.0 26.8 26.7 27.3 28.1
Labor........................................................ 47.5 49.7 51.7 54.1 55.7 57.9 60.1
State........................................................ 13.7 18.0 19.6 18.4 19.2 19.7 20.2
Transportation............................................... 61.7 68.7 72.3 72.5 72.8 73.4 74.9
Treasury..................................................... 490.6 516.8 538.4 567.2 595.7 618.3 642.8
Veterans Affairs............................................. 72.8 86.6 88.6 92.5 100.4 97.5 106.2
Corps of Engineers........................................... 3.9 7.2 8.4 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.9
Other Defense Civil Programs................................. 47.1 49.1 51.2 52.7 54.0 55.1 56.0
Environmental Protection Agency.............................. 8.3 7.5 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.6
Executive Office of the President............................ 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
General Services Administration.............................. * 0.4 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
International Assistance Programs............................ 12.8 15.1 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.2 15.8
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................ 15.9 17.3 18.1 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.0
National Science Foundation.................................. 5.5 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.6
Office of Personnel Management............................... 58.4 64.2 67.2 69.7 71.7 74.5 77.2
Small Business Administration................................ 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Social Security Administration............................... 621.8 656.6 693.6 733.8 780.2 818.6 873.9
On-Budget.................................................. (54.9) (60.0) (66.4) (71.6) (80.7) (77.9) (87.5)
Off-Budget................................................. (566.8) (596.5) (627.3) (662.2) (699.5) (740.7) (786.5)
Other Independent Agencies................................... 18.0 18.4 20.6 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.5
On-Budget.................................................. (12.9) (17.5) (19.5) (18.5) (19.0) (18.9) (19.5)
Off-Budget................................................. (5.1) (0.9) (1.1) (1.0) (0.5) (0.5) (0.0)
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................ -260.2 -285.3 -288.9 -303.5 -323.1 -344.1 -366.6
On-Budget.................................................. (-141.9) (-157.9) (-153.2) (-157.5) (-165.3) (-173.1) (-181.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (-118.3) (-127.4) (-135.6) (-146.0) (-157.8) (-171.0) (-185.0)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,730.2 2,900.2 2,993.1 3,064.7 3,207.1 3,288.8 3,463.5
On-Budget.................................................. (2,276.6) (2,430.1) (2,500.4) (2,547.5) (2,664.8) (2,718.5) (2,862.0)
Off-Budget................................................. (453.6) (470.1) (492.7) (517.2) (542.3) (570.3) (601.5)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
[[Page 387]]
Table 25-11. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION
(In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2007 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military............................ 603.0 568.1 494.8 507.8 521.3 535.2 549.4
Other...................................................... 22.9 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense.................................... 625.8 590.6 517.5 530.9 544.8 559.2 573.9
International affairs........................................ 68.4 34.0 33.7 34.6 35.4 36.3 37.2
General science, space, and technology....................... 26.3 27.4 28.0 28.6 29.3 29.9 30.6
Energy....................................................... 0.6 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.0
Natural resources and environment............................ 33.8 32.6 32.2 32.8 33.3 34.2 35.3
Agriculture.................................................. 22.8 17.9 20.9 20.2 20.2 20.5 20.8
Commerce and housing credit.................................. 10.0 9.3 12.4 11.2 11.2 11.5 9.1
On-Budget.................................................. (1.1) (6.2) (8.6) (8.7) (9.0) (9.6) (10.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (8.9) (3.1) (3.8) (2.5) (2.2) (1.9) (-1.1)
Transportation............................................... 78.7 76.3 71.8 82.3 83.2 84.1 85.1
Community and regional development........................... 17.6 19.8 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8
Education, training, employment, and social services......... 93.7 91.7 92.3 95.9 97.4 100.9 97.8
Health....................................................... 244.3 286.0 299.4 319.6 340.6 362.8 387.6
Medicare..................................................... 385.0 402.8 425.3 454.4 500.5 500.5 558.7
Income security.............................................. 368.0 383.4 402.5 415.4 431.6 430.6 446.0
Social security.............................................. 589.0 617.9 653.3 690.6 730.4 774.8 824.3
On-Budget.................................................. (19.3) (18.7) (22.9) (25.3) (27.5) (30.3) (33.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (569.6) (599.2) (630.4) (665.3) (702.9) (744.6) (790.7)
Veterans benefits and services............................... 79.6 88.0 87.5 93.5 97.9 103.0 107.5
Administration of justice.................................... 46.2 46.4 47.4 46.9 48.4 50.0 51.6
General government........................................... 18.6 20.2 20.7 21.6 22.4 23.2 23.9
Net interest................................................. 237.1 240.6 248.8 262.1 273.8 280.5 284.4
On-Budget.................................................. (343.1) (354.9) (370.6) (393.6) (416.0) (435.2) (452.1)
Off-Budget................................................. (-106.0) (-114.3) (-121.9) (-131.4) (-142.2) (-154.7) (-167.7)
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............ -49.5 -51.4 -54.0 -58.4 -62.2 -66.0 -70.4
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)........... -12.3 -13.1 -13.8 -14.6 -15.5 -16.3 -17.3
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf......... -6.8 -11.1 -10.1 -10.2 -10.7 -11.1 -11.4
Sale of major assets....................................... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... -0.3 ...........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts.................... -13.7 -11.8 -2.2 -0.1 -0.1 ........... ...........
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts................... -82.2 -87.4 -80.1 -83.3 -88.5 -93.7 -99.1
On-Budget................................................ (-69.9) (-74.3) (-66.3) (-68.8) (-72.9) (-77.4) (-81.8)
Off-Budget............................................... (-12.3) (-13.1) (-13.8) (-14.6) (-15.5) (-16.3) (-17.3)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,863.3 2,900.5 2,932.2 3,076.7 3,231.4 3,328.0 3,494.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Budget.................................................. (2,403.1) (2,425.6) (2,433.6) (2,554.8) (2,684.2) (2,752.6) (2,889.9)
Off-Budget................................................. (460.2) (474.9) (498.6) (521.8) (547.2) (575.4) (604.6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMORANDUM
Discretionary budget authority:
National defense........................................... 622.4 587.2 513.1 526.5 540.4 554.6 569.3
International.............................................. 39.1 36.4 34.8 35.5 36.3 37.2 38.0
Domestic................................................... 410.8 422.2 420.3 430.4 441.5 453.0 464.8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total........................................................ 1,072.3 1,045.8 968.2 992.5 1,018.2 1,044.7 1,072.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 388]]
Table 25-12. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY
(In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2007 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch........................................... 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2
Judicial Branch.............................................. 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6
Agriculture.................................................. 91.8 90.5 98.4 99.0 100.5 102.9 105.3
Commerce..................................................... 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.9 8.1
Defense--Military............................................ 603.0 568.1 494.8 507.8 521.3 535.1 549.4
Education.................................................... 68.3 66.6 66.8 69.9 70.8 73.8 70.1
Energy....................................................... 21.7 21.2 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.5 23.9
Health and Human Services.................................... 658.4 717.0 748.7 799.3 867.4 886.4 968.1
Homeland Security............................................ 39.7 41.1 38.6 37.5 38.7 39.8 41.0
Housing and Urban Development................................ 35.4 40.4 40.8 41.6 42.4 43.3 44.2
Interior..................................................... 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.9 10.9 11.2 11.6
Justice...................................................... 24.8 24.2 26.8 25.7 26.5 27.4 28.3
Labor........................................................ 47.6 49.1 52.0 53.5 55.6 57.5 59.6
State........................................................ 17.1 19.9 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.6
Transportation............................................... 66.0 63.4 58.6 68.7 69.1 69.5 69.9
Treasury..................................................... 492.7 519.1 540.6 569.2 597.7 620.1 645.0
Veterans Affairs............................................. 79.6 88.0 87.4 93.3 97.7 102.7 107.2
Corps of Engineers........................................... 7.0 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9
Other Defense Civil Programs................................. 47.2 49.0 51.2 52.7 54.0 55.1 56.0
Environmental Protection Agency.............................. 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5
Executive Office of the President............................ 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
General Services Administration.............................. 0.1 0.2 * * * * *
International Assistance Programs............................ 51.4 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.6
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................ 16.3 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.2
National Science Foundation.................................. 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8
Office of Personnel Management............................... 61.6 66.5 70.8 72.2 74.6 77.2 79.8
Small Business Administration................................ 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Social Security Administration............................... 626.3 658.6 695.6 736.9 783.1 822.9 878.2
On-Budget.................................................. (56.7) (59.4) (65.2) (71.6) (80.2) (78.3) (87.5)
Off-Budget................................................. (569.6) (599.2) (630.4) (665.3) (702.9) (744.6) (790.7)
Other Independent Agencies................................... 24.4 22.9 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 24.7
On-Budget.................................................. (15.5) (19.9) (23.6) (24.8) (25.2) (25.4) (25.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (8.9) (3.1) (3.8) (2.5) (2.2) (1.9) (-1.1)
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................ -260.2 -285.3 -288.9 -303.5 -323.1 -344.1 -366.6
On-Budget.................................................. (-141.9) (-157.9) (-153.2) (-157.5) (-165.3) (-173.1) (-181.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (-118.3) (-127.4) (-135.6) (-146.0) (-157.8) (-171.0) (-185.0)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,863.3 2,900.5 2,932.2 3,076.7 3,231.4 3,328.0 3,494.5
On-Budget.................................................. (2,403.1) (2,425.6) (2,433.6) (2,554.8) (2,684.2) (2,752.6) (2,889.9)
Off-Budget................................................. (460.2) (474.9) (498.6) (521.8) (547.2) (575.4) (604.6)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.