[Analytical Perspectives]
[Current Services Estimates]
[25. Current Services Estimates]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]



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                       CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES

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                     25.  CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES

                                     

                                      Table 25-1.  BASELINE CATEGORY TOTALS
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2007       2008       2009       2010       2011       2012       2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts...........................    2,568      2,662      2,815      2,954      3,110      3,301      3,454
Outlays:
  Discretionary:
    DOD-Military...................      528        555        538        506        512        523        536
    Homeland security..............       32         36         39         39         40         41         42
    International affairs..........       35         37         36         35         37         38         38
    Other discretionary............      448        481        479        477        480        488        498
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, Discretionary......    1,042      1,109      1,092      1,057      1,070      1,090      1,114
  Mandatory:
    Social Security................      581        610        645        682        722        765        814
    Medicare.......................      371        391        420        449        495        495        553
    Medicaid and SCHIP.............      197        211        224        239        256        275        297
    Other mandatory................      302        338        364        376        391        383        401
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, mandatory..........    1,451      1,551      1,653      1,746      1,864      1,918      2,065
  Net interest.....................      237        241        249        262        274        280        284
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, outlays.....................    2,730      2,900      2,993      3,065      3,207      3,289      3,464

  Unified deficit(-)/surplus(+)....     -162       -239       -178       -111        -97         12        -10
    On-budget......................     -343       -431       -382       -334       -336       -236       -267
    Off-budget.....................      181        192        204        223        239        248        257

Memorandum:
  BEA baseline deficit.............     -162       -238       -231       -200        -50        136        136
    Do not extend emergencies......  .........  .........       52         96        104        108        111
    Correct growth rates for pay...  .........  .........        2          2          3          3          3
    Remove special rule for
     administrative
      expenses of selected programs  .........  .........        *          *          *          1          1
    Extend certain tax provisions..  .........       -*         -2        -13       -158       -237       -255
    Related debt service...........  .........       -*          1          4          5          1         -4
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Current baseline deficit.........     -162       -239       -178       -111        -97         12        -10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.

  Current services or ``baseline'' estimates are designed to provide a 
neutral benchmark against which policy proposals can be measured. Since 
the early 1970s when the first requirements for the calculation of a 
``current services'' baseline were enacted, a variety of concepts and 
measures have been employed. Shortly after enactment of the Budget 
Enforcement Act (BEA) which provided detailed rules for calculating a 
baseline, there was a consensus to define the current services estimates 
according to those rules. However, that baseline has serious technical 
flaws, which compromise its ability to serve as a neutral measure. This 
section provides detailed estimates of a baseline that corrects these 
flaws. It also discusses alternative formulations for the baseline.
  Ideally, a current services baseline would provide a projection of 
estimated receipts, outlays, deficits or surpluses, and budget authority 
needed to reflect this year's enacted policies and programs for each 
year in the future. Because such a concept would be nearly impossible to 
apply across all segments of the government, the baseline has instead 
become largely a mechanical construct.
  Moreover, it is important to discuss what a baseline is not. The 
baseline is not a prediction of the final outcome of the annual budget 
process, nor is it a proposed budget. By itself, the current services 
baseline commits no one to any particular policy. Instead, the 
commitments or constraints reflected in the current services estimates 
are based on the tax and spending policies contained in current law.
  The current services baseline is used in a variety of ways: It can 
warn of future problems, either for Government fiscal policy as a whole 
or for individual tax and spending programs. It is also a ``policy-
neutral'' benchmark against which the President's Budget and

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other budget proposals can be compared to measure the magnitude of the 
proposed changes. Table 25-1 shows current services estimates of 
receipts, outlays, and surpluses for 2007 through 2013. They are based 
on the economic assumptions described later in this chapter. The 
estimates are shown on a unified budget basis, i.e., the off-budget 
receipts and outlays of the Social Security trust funds and the Postal 
Service Fund are added to the on-budget receipts and outlays to 
calculate the unified budget totals. The table also shows the current 
services estimates by major component. The BEA baseline deficits are 
shown as a memorandum in the table. Table 25-2 shows the changes 
proposed in the President's Budget relative to the current services 
estimates. Descriptions of the Budget proposals can be found in the main 
Budget volume.

                                      Table 25-2.  IMPACT OF BUDGET POLICY
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                         Total
                                        2008       2009       2010       2011       2012       2013    2009-2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Services Baseline Deficit..       -239       -178       -111        -97         12        -10       -383

Proposals:
  Economic growth package..........       -127        -26          4          2         -*         -2        -23

  Other revenue proposals \1\......        -16        -98        -41        -52        -49        -43       -283

  Global war on terror and other:
    emergencies....................        -28       -101        -50        -17        -12        -11       -190

  Discretionary policy:
    Security.......................          *        -21        -25        -26        -23        -20       -114
    Non-security...................          *         -2         24         45         60         76        203
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, discretionary..........          *        -22         -2         19         38         56         88

  Mandatory proposals:
    Social security personal         .........  .........  .........  .........  .........        -31        -31
     accounts......................
    Other proposals................          *         17         39         51         59         70        237

2009 Budget Deficit................       -410       -407       -160        -95         48         29       -585
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.
Note: Each line includes debt service.
\1\ Includes outlay impact of revenue proposals.

                     Conceptual Basis for Estimates

  Receipts and outlays are divided into two categories that are 
important for calculating the current services estimates: those 
controlled by authorizing legislation (direct spending and receipts) and 
those controlled through the annual appropriations process 
(discretionary spending). Different estimating rules apply to each 
category. There are numerous alternative rules that could be used to 
develop current services estimates for both categories. The next section 
discusses some alternatives that might be considered.
   Direct spending and receipts.--Direct spending includes the major 
entitlement programs, such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, 
Federal employee retirement, unemployment compensation, Food Stamps and 
other means-tested entitlements. It also includes such programs as 
deposit insurance and farm price and income supports, where the 
Government is legally obligated to make payments under certain 
conditions. Receipts and direct spending are alike in that they involve 
ongoing activities that generally operate under permanent authority 
(they do not require annual authorization), and the underlying statutes 
generally specify the tax rates or benefit levels that must be collected 
or paid, and who must pay or who is eligible to receive benefits. The 
current services baseline assumes that receipts and direct spending 
programs continue in the future as specified by current law. The 
budgetary impact of anticipated regulations and administrative actions 
that are permissible under current law are also reflected in the 
estimates.
  If a baseline is intended to reflect current law, then the provisions 
of law providing spending authority and the authority to collect taxes 
or other receipts that expire under current law should be assumed to 
expire. However, the current services baseline assumes extension of 
several types of authority:
     Expiring provisions affecting excise taxes dedicated to a 
          trust fund are assumed to be extended at current rates. During 
          the projection period of 2008 through 2013, the only taxes 
          affected by this exception are taxes deposited in the Airport 
          and Airway trust fund, which expire on February 29, 2008, and 
          taxes deposited in the Highway trust fund, the Leaking 
          Underground Storage Tank trust fund, and the Sport Fish 
          Restoration and Boating Safety trust fund, which expire on 
          September 30, 2011.
     Direct spending programs that will expire under current law 
          are assumed to be extended if their 2008 outlays exceed $50 
          million. For example, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families 
          and child care entitlement to States are scheduled to expire 
          at the end of 2010. The baseline estimates provided here 
          assume continuation of these pro

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          grams through the projection period. However, programs enacted 
          after the enactment of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 that 
          are explicitly temporary in nature expire in the baseline even 
          if their current year outlays exceed the $50 million 
          threshold. For example, the Secure Rural Schools and Community 
          Self-Determination Act payments to counties impacted by the 
          reduction of shared receipts associated with lower levels of 
          timer harvesting on Federal lands are assumed to expire as 
          scheduled in 2007 even though over $400 million of the 2007 
          payment are estimated to be made in the current year.
     Certain provisions in the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts that were 
          clearly not intended to be temporary are assumed to continue 
          past their expiration date. These provisions include 
          reductions in individual income taxes on capital gains and 
          dividends, increased expensing for small businesses, repeal of 
          estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes, modification of 
          gift taxes, and reductions in income taxes scheduled to sunset 
          on December 31, 2010. Unlike the two extensions discussed 
          above, the BEA baseline definitions, developed before the 
          enactment of the 2001 and 2003 tax acts, do not provide for 
          extension of these provisions.
   Discretionary spending.--Discretionary programs differ in one 
important aspect from direct spending programs--Congress provides 
spending authority for almost all discretionary programs one year at a 
time. The spending authority is normally provided in the form of annual 
appropriations. Absent appropriations of additional funds in the future, 
discretionary programs would cease to exist after existing balances were 
spent. If the baseline was intended to reflect current law, then a 
baseline would only reflect the expenditure of remaining balances from 
appropriations laws. Instead the current services baseline provides a 
mechanical definition for discretionary programs that is somewhat 
arbitrary. The definition used here attempts to keep discretionary 
spending level in real terms. For 2008, the current services estimates 
for discretionary programs are equal to enacted 2008 appropriations. For 
2009 through 2013, funding for most accounts is equal to this 2008 level 
adjusted for inflation. The inflation rates used here are similar to 
those required by the BEA but adjusted to remove the overcompensation 
for federal pay inherent in the BEA definition. Unlike the BEA 
requirements, these current services estimates assume that federal pay 
raises are effective in January, as required under current law. At the 
time the BEA was enacted, it ignored the nearly contemporaneous 
enactment of the Federal Employees Compensation Act of 1991 that shifted 
the effective date of federal employee pay raises from October to 
January. Also, the estimates presented here exclude the special 
adjustment for administrative expenses for certain benefit programs 
required by the BEA. This provision is inconsistent with the baseline 
rules for other accounts that fund administrative costs. In addition, 
the baseline estimates presented here assume that emergency 
appropriations enacted for 2008, which primarily provide funding for the 
Global War on Terror, are one-time only expenditures. The BEA requires 
that the baseline assume funding for emergencies repeatedly through the 
projection period.

                  Alternative Formulations of Baseline

  Throughout much of U.S. history, budget proposals were often compared 
to either the President's request or the previous year's budget. In the 
early 1970s, policymakers developed the concept of a baseline to provide 
a more neutral benchmark for comparisons. While the Congressional Budget 
Act of 1974 included a requirement that OMB and the Congressional Budget 
Office (CBO) provide estimates of a current services baseline, the 
definition of the baseline was very general and specific guidance was 
not provided.
  Subsequent budget laws have specified in increasing detail the 
requirements for constructing baselines. Current services estimates for 
direct spending programs and receipts are generally estimated based on 
laws currently in place and most major programs are assumed to continue 
even past sunset dates set in law. In the case of receipts, the BEA 
requires only the extension of trust fund excise taxes, but otherwise 
bases the estimates on current law. For discretionary programs, these 
acts instituted a precise definition of baseline with numerous rules for 
its construction.
  It is clear, however, that a number of baseline definitions could be 
developed that differ for those presented in this chapter:
     Extend provisions affecting parts of mandatory programs. 
          Currently, mandatory programs that have current year outlays 
          of over $50 million are generally assumed to continue. 
          However, provisions of law that affect parts of mandatory 
          programs, even those that have been consistently extended in 
          the past, are assumed to expire as scheduled.
     Do not extend any authorizing laws that expire. If all 
          mandatory programs were assumed to expire as scheduled, 
          deficits for 2009 through 2013 would be $448 billion lower 
          than the current estimates. (See the section below on major 
          program assumptions for details on mandatory program 
          extensions assumed in the estimates.) If excise taxes were 
          allowed to expire, the deficit would be $149 billion higher 
          over the period 2009 through 2013. If certain provisions of 
          the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts were assumed to expire, the deficit 
          would be $708 billion lower over the period.
     Straightline appropriations. If all discretionary budgetary 
          resources were to be the same in each year in the projection 
          period as provided for the current year, total outlays would 
          be $17 billion lower in 2009 and $342 billion lower over the 
          period 2009 through 2013.
     Do not extend any appropriations. The current treatment of 
          expiring provisions is inconsistent

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          with the treatment of discretionary spending. All 
          discretionary spending continues whether there is 
          authorization for the program or not and whether funds have 
          already been provided or not. In nearly all cases, funds for 
          discretionary programs have not been provided in advance for 
          years beyond the current year. If rules consistent with the 
          treatment of other expiring provisions were applied to 
          discretionary spending, no new budgetary resources would be 
          provided. Thus, under a strict ``current law'' approach, the 
          only discretionary outlays that would be included in the 
          baseline would be the lagged spending from the current year 
          budgetary resource. If this rule were followed, outlays in 
          2009 would be reduced by $602 billion relative to the current 
          estimates. Clearly this would provide an unrealistic estimate 
          of future spending and the government's future fiscal 
          position.
  Table 25-3 provides estimates for a variety of changes in baseline 
definitions that could be considered.

                                     

                                  Table 25-3.  ALTERNATIVE BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                         Total
                                        2008       2009       2010       2011       2012       2013    2009-2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline surplus/deficit...       -239       -178       -111        -97         12        -10       -383

Alternative assumptions (``-''
 represents deficit increase):
  Extend provisions affecting parts
   of
    mandatory programs \1\.........         -1         -2         -2         -3         -3         -3        -14

  Do not extend any authorizing
   laws:
    Mandatory spending.............         22         66         73         93        104        112        448
    Trust fund excise taxes........         -7        -12        -14        -15        -52        -56       -149
    Certain provisions of the 2001
     and
      2003 Tax Acts................          *          2         13        163        250        280        708

  Straightline appropriations......  .........         17         39         66         95        126        342

  Do not extend any appropriations.  .........        602        891      1,035      1,140      1,229      4,897
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.
\1\ Estimates provided here are the totals for the illustrative provisions shown in Table 25-5. This is not a
  complete listing of all provisions that expire.

                                     

                                  Table 25-4.  SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
                                   (Fiscal years; dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        2008      2009      2010      2011      2012      2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
  Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
    Current dollars.................................    14,312    15,027    15,792    16,580    17,395    18,243
    Real, chained (2000) dollars....................    11,808    12,154    12,523    12,890    13,258    13,632
  Percent change, year over year:
    Current dollars.................................       4.7       5.0       5.1       5.0       4.9       4.9
    Real, chained (2000) dollars....................       2.7       2.9       3.0       2.9       2.9       2.8
  Inflation measures (percent change, year over
   year):
    GDP chained price index.........................       1.9       2.0       2.0       2.0       2.0       2.0
    Consumer price index (all urban)................       3.1       2.1       2.3       2.3       2.3       2.3

Unemployment rate, civilian (percent)...............       4.9       4.9       4.8       4.8       4.8       4.8

Interest rates (percent):
  91-day Treasury bills.............................       3.8       4.0       4.1       4.3       4.3       4.3
  10-year Treasury notes............................       4.5       4.8       5.0       5.2       5.3       5.3

MEMORANDUM:
  Related program assumptions:
    Automatic benefit increases (percent):
      Social security and veterans pensions.........       2.3       2.5       2.1       2.3       2.3       2.3
      Federal employee retirement...................       2.3       2.5       2.1       2.3       2.3       2.3
      Food stamps...................................       4.6       3.4       2.1       2.3       2.3       2.3
    Insured unemployment rate.......................       2.0       2.0       2.0       2.0       2.0       2.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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                          Economic Assumptions

  The current services estimates are based on the same economic 
assumptions as the President's Budget, which are based on enactment of 
the President's Budget proposals. The economy and the budget interact. 
Changes in economic conditions significantly alter the estimates of tax 
receipts, unemployment benefits, entitlement payments that are 
automatically adjusted for changes in cost-of-living (COLAs), income 
support programs for low-income individuals, and interest on the Federal 
debt. In turn, Government tax and spending policies influence prices, 
economic growth, consumption, savings, and investment. Because of these 
interactions, it would be reasonable, from an economic perspective, to 
assume different economic paths for the current services baseline and 
the President's Budget. However, this would diminish the value of 
current services estimates as a benchmark for measuring proposed policy 
changes, because it would then be difficult to separate the effects of 
proposed policy changes from the effects of different economic 
assumptions. By using the same economic assumptions for current services 
and the President's Budget, this potential source of confusion is 
eliminated. The economic assumptions underlying both the budget and the 
current service estimates are summarized in Table 25-4. The economic 
outlook underlying these assumptions is discussed in greater detail in 
Chapter 12 of this volume.

                                     

                         Table 25-5.  BENEFICIARY PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR BENEFIT PROGRAMS
                                         (Annual average, in thousands)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                               Estimate
                                             Actual  -----------------------------------------------------------
                                              2007      2008      2009      2010      2011      2012      2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farmer direct payments....................     1,486     1,479     1,471     1,464     1,457     1,449     1,442
Federal family education loans............     6,085     6,442     6,689     6,943     7,209     7,485     7,775
Federal direct student loans..............     1,656     1,707     1,769     1,834     1,901     1,972     2,045
Medicaid/State Childrens' Health Insurance    53,900    55,200    54,800    55,000    55,200    55,400    55,800
 Program..................................
Medicare-eligible military retiree health      1,922     1,956     1,987     2,011     2,040     2,086     2,136
 benefits.................................
Medicare:
  Hospital insurance......................    43,585    44,329    45,187    46,110    47,154    48,490    50,003
  Supplementary medical insurance.........    40,764    41,255    41,993    42,748    43,539    44,647    45,977
  Prescription Drug Plans and Medicare
   Advantage
    Prescription Drug Plans...............    23,858    25,170    26,554    27,954    29,430    31,110    32,382
  Retiree Drug Subsidy....................     6,688     6,658     6,649     6,647     6,659     6,708     6,777
  Managed Care Enrollment \1\.............     8,093     9,227    10,096    10,978    11,787    12,506    13,062
Railroad retirement.......................       571       565       558       552       548       543       540
Federal civil service retirement..........     2,463     2,494     2,512     2,534     2,556     2,578     2,599
Military retirement.......................     2,073     2,094     2,106     2,112     2,113     2,112     2,108
Unemployment insurance....................     7,632     8,049     8,298     8,344     8,421     8,432     8,461
Food stamps...............................    26,466    27,796    27,983    27,524    26,824    26,526    26,252
Child nutrition...........................    30,558    31,557    32,062    32,511    32,901    33,230    33,529
Foster care and adoption assistance.......       602       620       634       649       665       682       701
Supplemental security income (SSI):
  Aged....................................     1,111     1,107     1,106     1,106     1,111     1,121     1,136
  Blind/disabled..........................     5,892     6,048     6,208     6,359     6,513     6,664     6,796
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, SSI.........................     7,003     7,155     7,314     7,465     7,624     7,785     7,932
Child care and development fund \2\.......     2,700     2,600     2,500     2,500     2,500     2,500     2,500
Social security (OASDI):
  Old age and survivor insurance..........    40,681    41,172    41,994    43,021    44,068    45,190    46,495
  Disability insurance....................     8,676     9,002     9,312     9,552     9,797    10,024    10,196
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, OASDI.......................    49,357    50,174    51,306    52,573    53,865    55,214    56,691
Veterans compensation:
  Veterans................................     2,789     2,900     3,015     3,123     3,219     3,309     3,395
  Survivors (non-veterans)................       333       337       342       347       353       359       366
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, Veterans compensation.......     3,122     3,237     3,356     3,470     3,572     3,669     3,761
Veterans pensions:
  Veterans................................       325       322       319       316       312       309       306
  Survivors (non-veterans)................       198       200       199       198       196       195       194
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, Veterans pensions...........       523       522       518       513       509       504       500
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Enrollment figures include only beneficiaries who receive both Part A and Part B services through managed
  care.
\2\ Includes children served through the CCDF (including TANF transfers) and through funds spent directly on
  child care in the Social Services Block Grant and TANF programs.


[[Page 376]]

                     Major Programmatic Assumptions

  A number of programmatic assumptions must be made in order to 
calculate the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the 
number of beneficiaries who will receive payments from the major benefit 
programs and annual cost-of-living adjustments in the indexed programs. 
Assumptions on baseline caseload projections for the major benefit 
programs are shown in Table 25-5. Assumptions about various automatic 
cost-of-living-adjustments are shown in Table 25-4.
  It is also necessary to make assumptions about the continuation of 
expiring programs and provisions. In the estimates provided here, 
expiring excise taxes dedicated to a trust fund are extended at current 
rates. Certain income tax provisions from the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts, 
that were not designed to be temporary in nature, are assumed to be 
permanent for purposes of calculating revenue estimates. In general, 
mandatory programs with current year spending of at least $50 million 
are also assumed to continue. All discretionary programs with enacted 
non-emergency appropriations in the current year are assumed to 
continue. However, specific provisions of law that affect mandatory 
programs (but are not necessary for program operation) are allowed to 
expire as scheduled. For example, under the Medicare, Medicaid, and 
SCHIP Extension Act of 2007, Medicaid Transitional Medical Assistance 
will expire at the end of June 2008. The baseline does not assume 
additional spending under this authority beyond that point. Table 25-6 
provides a listing of mandatory programs and taxes assumed to continue 
in the baseline after their expiration.
  Many other important assumptions must be made in order to calculate 
the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the timing and 
substance of regulations that will be issued over the projection period, 
the use of administrative discretion provided under current law, and 
other assumptions about the way programs operate. Table 25-6 lists many 
of these assumptions and their impact on the baseline estimates. It is 
not intended to be an exhaustive listing; the variety and complexity of 
Government programs are too great to provide a complete list. Instead, 
some of the more important assumptions are shown.

                                     

       Table 25-6.  IMPACT OF REGULATIONS, EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS, AND OTHER ASSUMPTIONS IN THE BASELINE
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Estimate
                                               -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   2008       2009       2010       2011       2012       2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  REGULATIONS

                   Finalized
Foster care and adoption assistance...........        39         64         65         95         96         97
Old age and survivors insurance (OASI) and
 disability insurance (DI):
  Reduction of Title II benefits under family         19         20         21         23         23         23
   maximum in cases of dual entitlement.......
  Trial work period...........................         2          1          1   .........  .........  .........
  Continuing disability review failure to            -12        -12        -12        -13        -14        -15
   cooperate process..........................
  Expedited reinstatement of disability               NA         NA         NA         NA         NA         NA
   benefits...................................
  Amendments to the quick disability                  39   .........         1         -4         -5         -8
   determination process......................
  Exemption of work activity as a basis for a         24         39         54         70         87        105
   continuing disability review...............
Medicaid: \1\
  Payment reform..............................       -40       -790     -1,170     -1,210     -1,250     -1,290
  School-based services reform................       -64       -635       -675       -720       -770       -820
Supplemental security income (SSI):
  Title XVI cross-program recover.............       -15        -15        -20        -20        -20        -20
  Student earned income exclusion.............         4          5          5          5          5          5
  Expedited reinstatement of disability               NA         NA         NA         NA         NA         NA
   benefits...................................
  Amendments to the quick disability                   8   .........  .........        -1         -1         -1
   determination process......................
  Exemption of work activity as a basis for a          1          1          2          2          2          3
   continuing disability review...............

                 Not Finalized
Child support enforcement.....................  .........         8          4          2          3          3
Foster care and adoption assistance:
  Adoption and foster care analysis and         .........         6         12         14          9          9
   reporting system (AFCARS)..................
  National Youth in Transition Database.......         6          6          7          6          6          6
Medicaid: \1\
  Graduate medical education reform...........  .........      -150       -290       -450       -460       -470
  Rehabilitation reform.......................      -110       -360       -520       -570       -610       -660
  Managed care reform.........................  .........      -100       -100       -200       -200       -200
  Free care reform............................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
Medicare: \1\
  Withhold payment for hospital acquired        .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
   conditions.................................
  Program integrity actions...................  .........      -150       -110        -90        -90        -90
  Adjustments to skilled nursing facility       .........      -720       -900       -960     -1,030     -1,090
   payments...................................
  Adjustments to hospice wage payments........  .........      -110       -360       -550       -610       -660
  Adjustments to inpatient hospital payments..  .........       -80        -90       -110       -110       -120



[[Page 377]]


            EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS

Provisions Extended in the Baseline (effect of
                  extension)
Spending:
  Abstinence education (Children and Family            5         25         43         48         49         50
   Services)..................................
  Aviation Excise Taxes.......................  .........    12,570     13,328     14,073     14,861     15,690
  Child care entitlement to States............  .........  .........  .........     2,383      2,908      2,917
  Child nutrition:
    Summer food service program...............  .........  .........       341        358        378        398
    State administrative expenses.............  .........  .........       191        201        208        216
  CCC market access, bioenergy and commodity
   programs:
    Counter-cyclical payment program..........  .........        50         99         86        164        234
    Dairy price support program...............  .........        90         80         71         63         52
    Dairy export incentive program............         3   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Direct payment program....................     1,101      5,182      5,182      5,182      5,182      5,182
    Farm-to-consumer direct marketing act.....         1          1          1          1          1          1
    Marketing assistance loan and LDP program.         5         27         22         72        171        204
    Milk income loss contract program.........  .........       135        115        100         85         65
    Sugar nonrecourse loan program............  .........        96        119         98        156        147
    Market access program.....................       109        200        200        200        200        200
    Export credit guarantee programs (GSM 102)        37         31         20         18         18         18
    Food for progress.........................       277        340        340        340        340        340
    Facilities financing guarantee............  .........         3          3          3          3          3
  Cotton Statistics and Estimates Act of 1927.        42         42         42         42         42         42
  Conservation Reserve Program................  .........        10         91        276        532        851
  Farm security and rural investment:
    Ground and surface water conservation.....        70         67         65         62         61         61
    Farm and ranch lands protection program...        29         89         89         93         97         97
  Federal-Aid Highways........................  .........  .........       802        724        675        658
  Food Stamps:
    Benefit costs.............................    17,446     38,279     38,542     38,547     39,138     39,671
    State administrative expenses.............     1,310      2,723      2,829      2,939      3,053      3,172
    Employment and training...................       177        363        372        382        392        402
    Other program cost........................        34         79         70         72         73         75
    Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico......       811      1,678      1,720      1,759      1,800      1,841
    Food distribution on Indian Reservations..        44         92         94         97         98        101
    The emergency food assistance program             70        140        140        140        140        140
     commodities..............................
  Promoting safe and stable families..........  .........  .........  .........  .........       128        274
  Temporary assistance for needy families
   (TANF) resources:
    TANF......................................  .........  .........  .........    12,373     15,394     16,235
    Contingency fund..........................  .........  .........  .........       241        284        286
    Welfare research..........................  .........  .........  .........         1          6         12
  Trade Adjustment Assistance for Workers.....       383        764        926        981      1,010      1,039
  Veterans Compensation:
    VBA OBRA and VBA IT OBRA..................  .........         1          2          2          2          2
  Veterans Pension:
    Income Verification Match.................  .........  .........        -3         -7        -11        -14
    Sunset Medicaid Provision.................  .........  .........  .........  .........      -576       -576
    VBA OBRA and VBA IT OBRA..................  .........         9          9          9          9         10
    VHA OBRA and VHA IT OBRA..................  .........        16         17         18         20         21
  Veterans compensation--annual cost of living  .........       687      1,460      2,330      3,272      4,272
   adjustment.................................
Revenues:
  Airports and Airway Trust Fund Taxes........     6,981     11,964     12,696     13,416     14,176     14,979
  Sport Fish Restoration and Boating..........  .........  .........  .........  .........       516        534
  Highway Trust Fund Taxes....................  .........  .........  .........  .........    33,892     34,465
  LUST Taxes..................................  .........  .........  .........  .........       206        208


    Provisions Not Extended in the Baseline
Spending:
  Biobased product testing....................         1          1          1          1          1          1
  Biodiesel fuel education....................         1          1          1          1          1          1
  Biomass research and development............        14         14         14         14         14         14
  Coastal Impact Assistance...................  .........  .........  .........       250        250        250
  EPA:
    Pesticide maintenance fee.................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........       -22
    Pesticide registration service fee........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........        -3
  Farm bill programs:
    Klamath Basin.............................         6          7          8          8          8          8

[[Page 378]]


    Foreign market development (cooperator)           19         35         35         35         35         35
     program..................................
    Grassland reserve program.................         7         14         15         15         15         15
    Small watershed rehabilitation program....  .........        38         56         65         65         65
    Technical assistance specialty crops......         1          2          2          2          2          2
    Trade adjustment for farmers..............        90         90         90         90         90         90
    Wetlands reserve program..................        48         19         19         88        123        149
    Wildlife habitat incentives program.......        20         20         36         47         57         66
  Forest County Safety Net Payments...........  .........       438        451        464        478        493
  Medicaid:
    Transitional medical assistance...........       554        580        601        625        650        676
    Medicare low-income premium assistance....       425        470        515        570        635        705
  Renewable Energy Systems and Energy                 23         23         23         23         23         23
   Efficiency.................................
  Rural Broadband Access Loan Program.........        10         10         10         10         10         10
  TANF--supplemental grants...................  .........       236        294        310        316        319
  Trade Adjustment Assistance--Alternative TAA  .........         7         23         32         34         34
  Value-Added Agricultural Product Market             40         40         40         40         40         40
   Development Grants.........................
  Veterans Housing:
    Increases the loan fee for certain loans..  .........  .........  .........  .........      -234       -235
  Veterans Compensation:
    Health and Human Services.................  .........  .........  .........  .........         1          1
    New Hires Directory Match.................  .........  .........  .........  .........        -1         -1

      OTHER IMPORTANT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS

Child support enforcement (CSE):
  Alternative penalties for Family Support Act
   systems and State
    Disbursement Unit requirements............        -7         -7         -7         -7   .........  .........
Food stamps:
  Tax Offset, recoupment, and general claims        -189       -194       -198       -203       -207       -211
   collections................................
  Quality control liabilities.................        -3         -3         -3         -3         -3         -3
  Allocation of administrative costs between        -197       -197       -197       -197       -197       -197
   public assistance programs.................
Medicare:
  FFS Physicians..............................    60,636     56,876     55,755     54,282     53,577     56,659
  Contracting reform..........................       -70       -280       -550       -580       -620       -660
  Part D risk score normalization.............  .........       395        577        728        692        840
Medicaid:
  Financial management recoveries.............      -633       -682       -734       -792       -855       -923
  Vaccines for children, total program costs..     2,702      2,766      2,710      2,686      2,678      2,630
  Remaining upper payment limit-related costs.     1,600      1,400      1,500      1,500      1,600      1,700
  Institutional long-term care................    34,919     36,584     38,549     40,702     42,990     45,474
  Home and community based institutional          25,717     28,055     31,312     35,063     39,261     44,069
   alternatives...............................
  Pharmaceuticals (FFS, net of rebates).......     9,933     10,820     11,543     12,314     13,111     13,967
  Managed care (Including Medicaid MCOs, PHPs,    40,440     44,833     49,280     54,088     59,110     64,451
   and PCCM)..................................
  State Children's Health Insurance Program        7,600      6,097      5,783      5,334      5,203      5,143
   (Title XXI)................................
Approved Demonstrations and Pilot Programs:
  Medicare, HI:
    Rural Hospice:
      Baseline Estimate.......................         3          3          4   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         3          3          4   .........  .........  .........
    Mercy Medical Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................         2   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         2   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Premier:
      Baseline estimate.......................     2,703      2,827   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     2,715      2,839         12   .........  .........  .........
    Rural Community Hospital: \3\
      Baseline estimate.......................        51         53         33   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        60         63         40   .........  .........  .........
    New York Graduate Medical Education:
      Baseline estimate.......................        69   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        17          2   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Utah Graduate Medical Education:
      Baseline estimate.......................         9          9          9   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         9          9          9   .........  .........  .........
  Medicare, SMI:
    Medicare Health Support Program:
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Program Estimate........................        81         58         25   .........  .........  .........

[[Page 379]]


    Municipal Health Services Program
     Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         3   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    United Mine Workers of America (UMWA)
     Prescription Drug:
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         6          3   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Coordinated Care Disease Management
     Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................        79   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        79   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Lifemasters Disease Management Dual
     Eligibles Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................       142   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       142   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Care Management for High-Cost
     Beneficiaries:
      Baseline estimate.......................        55   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        55   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Low-Vision Rehabilitation:
      Baseline estimate.......................         8          8          8   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        10         10         10   .........  .........  .........
    Cancer Prevention and Treatment for Ethnic
     and Racial Minorities:
      Baseline estimate.......................         8          7          8   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         8          7          8   .........  .........  .........
    Medical Adult Day Care Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................         3          3   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         2          2   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Demo to Limit Annual Change in Part D
     Premiums:
      Baseline estimate:
      Demonstration estimate..................       280         60   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Demo to Transition Enrollment of ``Low-
     Income Subsidy Beneficiaries:
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       277        240        140         30   .........  .........
  Medicare: HI and SMI:
    ESRD Disease Management Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................       193        203         52   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       193        203         52   .........  .........  .........
    Home Health Third-Party Liability
     Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................       188        191        191         55   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       183        186        186         50   .........  .........
    Medicare+Choice Phase I Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         3   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Medicare+Choice Phase II Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        66   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    S/HMO I Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................     2,121      2,047      2,293      2,568   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     2,230      2,131      2,345      2,579   .........  .........
    S/HMO II Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................       760        745        835        935   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       787        766        847        938   .........  .........
    Physician Group Practice Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................       880   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       880   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Medical Savings Account:
      Baseline estimate.......................         1          4          6          8   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    United Mine Workers of American (UMWA)
     Health:
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        11          6   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Home Health Pay for Performance:
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,116      1,513        390   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     1,116      1,513        390   .........  .........  .........
    PACE for Profit:
      Baseline estimate.......................         5         10         15   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         5         10         15   .........  .........  .........
    Medicare Care Management Performance:
      Baseline estimate.......................     3,728      3,889      3,011   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     3,699      3,837      2,960         14   .........  .........

[[Page 380]]


  Medicaid:
    Alabama Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       240   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arizona AHCCCS:
      Baseline estimate.......................     4,839      5,356      5,932      6,571   .........  .........
    Arkansas ARKids B:
      Baseline estimate.......................       102   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arkansas Family Planning Services:
      Baseline estimate.......................       249   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arkansas Independent Choices (Cash &
     Counseling): \5\ \7\
      Baseline estimate.......................         5   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arkansas TEFRA:
      Baseline estimate.......................        28         31         34          9   .........  .........
    California Family Planning: \6\
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    California In-Home Supportive Services
     Plus: \5\
      Baseline estimate.......................       378        357   .........  .........  .........  .........
    California MediCal Hospital/Uninsured
     Care:
      Baseline estimate.......................       766        766        702   .........  .........  .........
    Colorado Consumer Directed Attendant
     Support: \5\ \7\
      Baseline estimate.......................         3   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Delaware Diamond State Health Plan:
      Baseline estimate.......................       286        302         76   .........  .........  .........
    District of Columbia Childless Adults:
      Baseline estimate.......................         3   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    District of Columbia HIV:
      Baseline estimate.......................        14         18          6   .........  .........  .........
    Florida Consumer Directed Care Plus (Cash
     & Counseling): \5\ \7\
      Baseline estimate.......................        26   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Florida Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       967      1,028   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Florida MEDS-AD Program:
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,072      1,180      1,298   .........  .........  .........
    Florida Medicaid Reform:
      Baseline estimate.......................     5,662      6,589      7,683      4,137   .........  .........
    Hawaii Health QUEST:
      Baseline estimate.......................       289        237   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Illinois Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       443   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Healthy Indiana Plan:
      Baseline estimate.......................       833      1,192      1,299      1,404      1,541        394
    IowaCare:
      Baseline estimate.......................       117        125        134   .........  .........  .........
    Iowa Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       189        205   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Kentucky Health Care Partnership Program:
      Baseline estimate.......................       568         48   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Louisiana Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       483        525        569   .........  .........  .........
    Maine HIV:
      Baseline estimate.......................         7          7          6   .........  .........  .........
    MaineCare Childless Adults:
      Baseline estimate.......................        57         57         57   .........  .........  .........
    Maryland Health Choice:
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,086   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Massachusetts MassHealth:
      Baseline estimate.......................     2,960   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Michigan Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       462        503        547   .........  .........  .........
    Minnesota Prepaid Med. Assist. Project
     Plus:
      Baseline estimate.......................       148   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Minnesota Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       284        325   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Mississippi Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       146   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Mississippi--Healthier Mississippi:
      Baseline estimate.......................        78         86   .........  .........  .........  .........

[[Page 381]]


    Missouri Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       277        303        331   .........  .........  .........
    Montana Basic Medicaid for Able-Bodied
     Adults:
      Baseline estimate.......................        39         13   .........  .........  .........  .........
    New Jersey Personal Preference (Cash &
     Counseling): \5\ \7\
      Baseline estimate.......................         3   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    New Mexico Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       114        119   .........  .........  .........  .........
    New York Partnership Plan:
      Baseline estimate.......................     7,823      7,685   .........  .........  .........  .........
    New York Federal-State Health Reform
     Partnership:
      Baseline estimate.......................    10,907     11,609     12,357     13,153   .........  .........
    North Carolina Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       457        494   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Oklahoma Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       166   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Oregon Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       169        183   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Oregon Independent Choices: \5\ \7\
      Baseline estimate.......................         2   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Oregon Health Plan: \2\
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,681      1,812      1,960   .........  .........  .........
    Pennsylvania Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       307        333        361   .........  .........  .........
    Rhode Island Rite Care:
      Baseline estimate.......................       169   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    South Carolina Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       396        413        431   .........  .........  .........
    TennCare II:
      Baseline estimate.......................     4,328      4,708      3,837   .........  .........  .........
    Texas Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,466      1,633      1,819      2,026   .........  .........
    Utah Primary Care Network:
      Baseline estimate.......................       110        117   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Vermont Long Term Care Plan:
      Baseline estimate.......................       135        149        166   .........  .........  .........
    Vermont Global Commitment to Health:
      Baseline estimate.......................       538        586        639        160   .........  .........
    Virginia Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       214        228        244   .........  .........  .........
    Washington Take Charge/Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       312        329   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin BadgerCare:
      Baseline estimate.......................        88         92         39   .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin Family Planning:
      Baseline estimate.......................       326        387        450   .........  .........  .........
    Pharmacy Plus:
      Wisconsin Pharmacy Plus:
        Demonstration estimate................        51         62         18   .........  .........  .........
  State Children's Health Insurance Program
   (Title XXI): \4\
      Alaska Denali KidCare:
        Demonstration estimate................        10         11   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Hawaii QUEST:
        Demonstration estimate................         9   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Maryland Health Choice: \8\
        Demonstration estimate................        19   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      MinnesotaCare:
        Demonstration estimate................        41         39   .........  .........  .........  .........
      New Jersey FamilyCare:
        Demonstration estimate................       173   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Oregon Health Plan 2: \9\
        Demonstration estimate................        40         40         40   .........  .........  .........
      Rhode Island (SCHIP RiteCare):
        Demonstration estimate................        11   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Wisconsin BadgerCare:
        Demonstration estimate................        64         69         36   .........  .........  .........

[[Page 382]]


  Health Insurance Flexibility and
   Accountability (HIFA) demonstrations
   (Medicaid and/or SCHIP): \4\
    Arizona HIFA:
      Demonstration estimate..................        29         24         26         28   .........  .........
    Arkansas HIFA:
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....         8         13         24         31   .........  .........
      Baseline estimate (Medicaid funds)......     1,604      1,813      2,049      2,318   .........  .........
    Colorado HIFA:
      Demonstration estimate..................        16         18   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Idaho HIFA:
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....        14         11   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Michigan HIFA:
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....       112         24   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Nevada HIFA:
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....        16         19         21         17   .........  .........
    New Mexico HIFA:
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....        24         27   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Oklahoma Sooner Care Demo+HIFA:
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,071      1,137        289   .........  .........  .........
    Virginia HIFA:
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....         9         10   .........  .........  .........  .........
  Joint Medicare and Medicaid:
    Minnesota-Dual Eligibles:
      Baseline estimate.......................       913        808        904      1,013   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       992        869        942      1,021   .........  .........
    Wisconsin Health Partnership Dual Eligible
     Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................        68         73         82         92   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        76         79         86         93   .........  .........
    Massachusetts SCO Dual Eligible
     Demonstration:
      Baseline estimate.......................       166        171        192        215   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       181        183        199        216   .........  .........
OASI, DI, SSI:
  Performance of continuing disability reviews
   (baseline levels):
    OASDI.....................................       -15        -78       -151       -208       -311       -585
    SSI.......................................        34        126        243        410        513        769
  Collection of overpayments:
    OASI......................................      -894       -969     -1,041     -1,112     -1,184     -1,262
    DI........................................      -715       -776       -835       -893       -952     -1,013
    SSI (federal).............................      -949       -997     -1,049     -1,100     -1,161     -1,218
  Debts written off as uncollectable (no
   effect on outlays):
    OASI......................................       151        163        176        188        200        213
    DI........................................       544        590        635        680        725        770
    SSI (federal).............................       431        453        477        500        528        554
  OASDI:
    Payments to states for vocational                 88         76         82         90         95        102
     rehabilitation...........................
    Research and demonstration projects.......        44         37         17   .........  .........  .........
  SSI:
    Payments from states for state                -4,476     -4,667     -4,871     -5,045     -5,365     -5,538
     supplemental benefits....................
    Payments for state supplemental benefits..     4,460      4,650      4,855      5,465      4,905      5,520
    Fees for administration of State
     supplement
      Treasury share..........................      -139       -142       -148       -164       -142       -157
      SSA share...............................      -135       -145       -159       -184       -166       -193
    Payments to states for vocational                 56         56         59         63         67         71
     rehabilitation...........................
    Performance of non-disability                    528       -104        -63         15        -16       -978
     redeterminations (excludes related
     overpayment collections reported above)..
    Research and demonstration projects.......        28         29         35         35         35         35
State grants and demonstrations-health care:
  Ticket to Work Health Grant Programs:
    Infrastructure Grant Program..............        35         40         45         50         55         55
    Demonstration to maintain independence and        22         25          5   .........  .........  .........
     employment...............................
  High-Risk Pools:
    Initial Seed Grants.......................        52   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Operation of Pools........................        10   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Emergency Health Services for Undocumented         221        221        221         32   .........  .........
   Aliens.....................................
  Pilot Program for National and State                 8   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
   Background Checks..........................
  Katrina Relief..............................       163   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Site Development Grants--Rural PACE.........         7   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Funding for PACE Outliers...................         5          3          3   .........  .........  .........
  Drug Surveys and Reports....................         3          3          3          3   .........  .........

[[Page 383]]


  Partnerships for Long-Term Care.............         3          3          3          3   .........  .........
  Alternate Non-Emergency Care................        28         22         13   .........  .........  .........
  Psychiatric Residential Treatment                   33         42         54         53         32   .........
   Demonstration..............................
  Money Follows the Person (MFP) Demonstration       217        348        348        348        174   .........
  MFP Evaluation and Support..................         1          2          1          1          1   .........
  Medicaid Transformation Grants..............        73         75   .........  .........  .........  .........
  Medicaid Integrity Program..................        97         75         75         75         75         75
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500,000 or less.
NA = Not available.
\1\ Medicare and Medicaid/SCHIP regulations reflect gross outlays.
\2\ Baseline estimates reflect costs absent the demonstration; demonstration estimates reflect costs of the
  demonstration. The differences represent the net impact of the demonstration. Any demonstrations are
  implicitly assumed in the current services baseline.
\3\ Costs of this demonstration are offset annually by a reduction to inpatient hospital prospective payment
  rates.
\4\ The Administration is phasing out HIFA demonstrations, refocusing SCHIP on covering children, and will not
  use SCHIP funds to cover parents or childless adults.
\5\ Consumer directed program in which ``plan of care'' is converted to a cash allotment. It is expected that
  these will convert to DRA State Plan option upon expiration.
\6\ The Federal Government does not have current estimates for California; the State has been operating under a
  temporary extension for three years.
\7\ Expires during 2008 and will convert to DRA State Plan option upon expiration.
\8\ States project covering a portion of their entire demonstration population with Medicaid funds.
\9\ The Oregon Health Plan 2 estimates represent SCHIP State plan costs for 2008. The allotment neutrality
  agreement is in the process of being finalized.

        Current Services Receipts, Outlays, and Budget Authority

   Receipts.--Table 25-7 shows baseline receipts by major source. Total 
receipts are projected to increase by $153 billion from 2008 to 2009 and 
by $639 billion from 2009 to 2013, largely due to assumed increases in 
incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation.
  Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $105 billion from 
2008 to 2009 under baseline assumptions. This growth of 8.6 percent is 
primarily the effect of increased collections resulting from rising 
personal incomes. Individual income taxes are projected to grow at an 
annual rate of 6.4 percent between 2009 and 2013.

                                    Table 25-7.  BASELINE RECEIPTS BY SOURCE
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Estimate
                                        2007   -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Actual      2008       2009       2010       2011       2012       2013
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes............      1,163      1,232      1,337      1,421      1,513      1,610      1,713
Corporation income taxes...........        370        349        348        349        366        402        391
Social insurance and retirement            870        910        955      1,011      1,065      1,115      1,169
 receipts..........................
  On-budget........................        235        248        258        270        284        297        310
  Off-budget.......................        635        662        697        740        781        818        858
Excise taxes.......................         65         69         69         70         76         79         81
Estate and gift taxes..............         26         27         26         20          1          *          1
Other receipts.....................         74         76         79         84         89         95        100
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, receipts....................      2,568      2,662      2,815      2,954      3,110      3,301      3,454
  On-budget........................      1,933      1,999      2,118      2,214      2,329      2,483      2,595
  Off-budget.......................        635        662        697        740        781        818        858
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.

                                     

  Corporation income taxes are estimated to decline by $0.3 billion 
between 2008 and 2009, in large part due to economic factors, an 
increase in the estimated receipt loss attributable to the domestic 
manufacturing deduction, and an expected decline in payments of back 
taxes. Corporation income taxes are projected to increase at an annual 
rate of 2.9 percent from 2009 to 2013, reflecting the effect of higher 
corporate profits and legislated tax changes.
  Social insurance and retirement receipts are estimated to increase by 
$45 billion between 2008 and 2009, and by an additional $214 billion 
between 2009 and 2013. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total 
wages and salaries paid, and scheduled increases in the social security 
taxable earnings base from $102,000 in 2008 to $126,900 in 2013.
  Excise taxes increase by $12 billion from 2008 to 2013, in large part 
due to increased economic activity

[[Page 384]]

and the expiration of various excise tax credits. Estate and gift taxes 
remain relatively level until 2009 and then decline beginning in 2010, 
reflecting the repeal of the estate tax in that year. Other baseline 
receipts (customs duties and miscellaneous receipts) are projected to 
increase by $24 billion from 2008 to 2013 in large part due to growth in 
imports and increased deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve 
System.
   Outlays.--Current services outlays are estimated to grow from $2,900 
billion in 2008 to $2,993 billion in 2009, a 3.2 percent increase. 
Between 2008 and 2013, current services outlays are projected to 
increase at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent. Table 25-8 shows the 
growth from 2008 to 2009 and average annual growth over the five-year 
period for certain discretionary and major mandatory programs.
  Even though most discretionary budget authority is assumed to grow 
with inflation, outlays for discretionary programs decline slightly from 
$1,109 billion in 2008 to $1,092 billion in 2009 and further in 2010. 
These declines are due to the baseline assuming no additional spending 
for the war beyond what is already enacted. Outlays increase each year 
after 2010, reflecting increases in resources to keep pace with 
inflation, reaching $1,114 billion in 2013. Entitlement and other 
mandatory programs are estimated to grow from $1,551 billion in 2008 to 
$1,653 billion in 2009, and to $2,065 billion in 2013, due in large part 
to changes in the number of beneficiaries and to automatic cost-of-
living adjustments and other adjustments for inflation. Social Security 
outlays grow from $610 billion in 2008 to $814 billion in 2013, an 
average annual rate of 5.9 percent. Medicare and Medicaid are projected 
to grow at annual average rates of 7.2 and 7.4 percent, respectively, 
outpacing inflation. Other areas of growth include veterans programs 
(6.6 percent) and unemployment compensation (4.9 percent). Net interest 
payments total $241 billion in 2008 and $249 billion in 2009 and 
maintain a constant average growth through the projection period.
  Tables 25-9 and 25-10 show current services outlays by function and by 
agency, respectively. A more detailed presentation of outlays (by 
function, subfunction, category, and program) is available on the 
Internet and on the CD-ROM enclosed with the printed version of this 
document.
   Budget authority.--Tables 25-11 and 25-12 show current services 
estimates of budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. A 
more detailed presentation of budget authority with program level 
estimates is available on the Internet and on the CD-ROM enclosed with 
the printed version of this document.

                                              Table 25-8.  CHANGE IN BASELINE OUTLAY ESTIMATES BY CATEGORY
                                                              (Dollar amounts in billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Change 2008 to 2009   Change 2008 to 2013
                                                                                                            --------------------------------------------
                                                                               2008       2009       2013                                       Annual
                                                                                                               Amount    Percent     Amount     average
                                                                                                                                                 rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
  Discretionary:
    DOD-Military..........................................................        555        538        536        -17      -3.0%        -18       -0.7%
    Homeland security.....................................................         36         39         42          3       7.7%          6        3.2%
    International affairs.................................................         37         36         38         -2      -4.4%          *        0.3%
    Other discretionary...................................................        481        479        498         -2      -0.4%         17        0.7%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, discretionary.................................................      1,109      1,092      1,114        -17      -1.6%          5        0.1%
  Mandatory:
    Farm programs.........................................................         11         14         13          2      19.0%          1        2.3%
    Medicaid..............................................................        204        218        292         14       6.8%         88        7.4%
    Other health..........................................................         26         26         31          *       0.1%          5        3.3%
    Medicare..............................................................        391        420        553         29       7.4%        162        7.2%
    Federal employee retirement
      and disability......................................................        109        114        129          5       4.4%         20        3.5%
    Unemployment compensation.............................................         35         37         44          3       7.6%          9        4.9%
    Other income security programs........................................        186        192        209          6       3.3%         23        2.3%
    Social Security.......................................................        610        645        814         35       5.7%        204        5.9%
    Veterans programs.....................................................         45         48         62          3       7.0%         17        6.6%
    Other mandatory programs..............................................         21         19         18         -2      -8.4%         -3       -2.9%
    Undistributed offsetting receipts.....................................        -87        -80        -99          7      -8.4%        -12        2.5%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, mandatory.....................................................      1,551      1,653      2,065        102       6.6%        514        5.9%
  Net interest............................................................        241        249        284          8       3.4%         44        3.4%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays.............................................................      2,900      2,993      3,464         93       3.2%        563        3.6%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.


[[Page 385]]


                                                    Table 25-9.  CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
                                                                (In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                         Function                              2007 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                2008         2009         2010         2011         2012         2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
  Department of Defense--Military............................       529.8        556.7        540.9        508.5        515.4        526.5        539.7
  Other......................................................        22.7         24.0         23.8         23.8         23.3         23.8         24.3
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, National defense....................................       552.6        580.7        564.7        532.3        538.7        550.3        564.0
International affairs........................................        28.5         33.7         33.2         32.8         34.5         35.2         35.3
General science, space, and technology.......................        25.6         27.6         28.5         28.3         28.9         29.6         30.2
Energy.......................................................        -0.9          3.0          3.8          4.1          4.5          4.2          4.0
Natural resources and environment............................        31.8         35.6         36.6         34.0         33.7         34.3         35.3
Agriculture..................................................        17.7         20.9         19.7         19.0         19.1         19.2         19.5
Commerce and housing credit..................................         0.5          7.4          4.0          1.7          1.2          1.4          1.7
  On-Budget..................................................       (-4.6)        (6.4)        (2.9)        (0.7)        (0.6)        (0.9)        (1.7)
  Off-Budget.................................................        (5.1)        (0.9)        (1.1)        (1.0)        (0.5)        (0.5)          (*)
Transportation...............................................        72.9         80.3         85.5         85.8         86.8         87.8         89.8
Community and regional development...........................        29.6         27.6         23.2         20.4         17.6         16.2         15.8
Education, training, employment, and social services.........        91.7         93.4         89.7         92.7         95.7         97.5         99.3
Health.......................................................       266.4        284.5        300.1        317.1        335.8        358.1        382.1
Medicare.....................................................       375.4        396.2        425.2        454.4        500.2        500.1        558.7
Income security..............................................       366.0        388.4        402.0        414.2        427.7        426.9        441.6
Social security..............................................       586.2        615.3        650.2        687.5        727.0        771.0        820.1
  On-Budget..................................................       (19.3)       (18.7)       (22.9)       (25.3)       (27.5)       (30.3)       (33.6)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (566.8)      (596.5)      (627.3)      (662.2)      (699.5)      (740.7)      (786.5)
Veterans benefits and services...............................        72.8         86.6         88.6         92.6        100.6         97.7        106.4
Administration of justice....................................        41.2         46.2         49.1         48.2         48.4         49.7         51.2
General government...........................................        17.5         19.7         20.4         20.6         21.6         22.7         23.3
Net interest.................................................       237.1        240.6        248.8        262.1        273.8        280.5        284.4
  On-Budget..................................................      (343.1)      (354.9)      (370.6)      (393.6)      (416.0)      (435.2)      (452.1)
  Off-Budget.................................................     (-106.0)     (-114.3)     (-121.9)     (-131.4)     (-142.2)     (-154.7)     (-167.7)
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
  Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............       -49.5        -51.4        -54.0        -58.4        -62.2        -66.0        -70.4
  Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)...........       -12.3        -13.1        -13.8        -14.6        -15.5        -16.3        -17.3
  Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf.........        -6.8        -11.1        -10.1        -10.2        -10.7        -11.1        -11.4
  Sale of major assets.......................................  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........        -0.3   ...........
  Other undistributed offsetting receipts....................       -13.7        -11.8         -2.2         -0.1         -0.1   ...........  ...........
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts...................       -82.2        -87.4        -80.1        -83.3        -88.5        -93.7        -99.1
    On-Budget................................................      (-69.9)      (-74.3)      (-66.3)      (-68.8)      (-72.9)      (-77.4)      (-81.8)
    Off-Budget...............................................      (-12.3)      (-13.1)      (-13.8)      (-14.6)      (-15.5)      (-16.3)      (-17.3)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,730.2      2,900.2      2,993.1      3,064.7      3,207.1      3,288.8      3,463.5
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  On-Budget..................................................    (2,276.6)    (2,430.1)    (2,500.4)    (2,547.5)    (2,664.8)    (2,718.5)    (2,862.0)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (453.6)      (470.1)      (492.7)      (517.2)      (542.3)      (570.3)      (601.5)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.


[[Page 386]]


                                                    Table 25-10.  CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY
                                                                (In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                          Agency                               2007 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                2008         2009         2010         2011         2012         2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch...........................................         4.3          4.6          4.5          4.8          4.8          5.0          5.1
Judicial Branch..............................................         6.0          6.2          6.7          6.8          7.1          7.3          7.5
Agriculture..................................................        84.4         94.5         95.3         95.6         96.7         98.9        101.2
Commerce.....................................................         6.5          8.2          8.2          7.7          7.6          7.7          7.9
Defense--Military............................................       529.9        556.7        540.9        508.5        515.4        526.5        539.7
Education....................................................        66.4         68.0         64.7         67.1         69.5         70.8         72.0
Energy.......................................................        20.1         23.2         23.3         23.4         23.0         23.4         23.8
Health and Human Services....................................       672.0        709.2        751.8        797.0        860.9        881.7        963.0
Homeland Security............................................        39.2         42.3         42.4         40.2         41.1         40.8         41.6
Housing and Urban Development................................        45.6         52.3         46.1         44.9         42.1         41.6         41.1
Interior.....................................................        10.5         11.1         11.2         11.0         11.0         11.2         11.6
Justice......................................................        23.3         24.9         27.0         26.8         26.7         27.3         28.1
Labor........................................................        47.5         49.7         51.7         54.1         55.7         57.9         60.1
State........................................................        13.7         18.0         19.6         18.4         19.2         19.7         20.2
Transportation...............................................        61.7         68.7         72.3         72.5         72.8         73.4         74.9
Treasury.....................................................       490.6        516.8        538.4        567.2        595.7        618.3        642.8
Veterans Affairs.............................................        72.8         86.6         88.6         92.5        100.4         97.5        106.2
Corps of Engineers...........................................         3.9          7.2          8.4          5.8          5.6          5.7          5.9
Other Defense Civil Programs.................................        47.1         49.1         51.2         52.7         54.0         55.1         56.0
Environmental Protection Agency..............................         8.3          7.5          8.2          8.3          8.3          8.4          8.6
Executive Office of the President............................         3.0          2.1          0.5          0.4          0.4          0.4          0.4
General Services Administration..............................           *          0.4          0.5         -0.2         -0.1         -0.1         -0.1
International Assistance Programs............................        12.8         15.1         14.3         15.1         15.9         16.2         15.8
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................        15.9         17.3         18.1         17.7         18.1         18.6         19.0
National Science Foundation..................................         5.5          6.3          6.2          6.3          6.4          6.6          6.6
Office of Personnel Management...............................        58.4         64.2         67.2         69.7         71.7         74.5         77.2
Small Business Administration................................         1.2          0.5          0.8          0.6          0.6          0.6          0.7
Social Security Administration...............................       621.8        656.6        693.6        733.8        780.2        818.6        873.9
  On-Budget..................................................       (54.9)       (60.0)       (66.4)       (71.6)       (80.7)       (77.9)       (87.5)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (566.8)      (596.5)      (627.3)      (662.2)      (699.5)      (740.7)      (786.5)
Other Independent Agencies...................................        18.0         18.4         20.6         19.5         19.5         19.4         19.5
  On-Budget..................................................       (12.9)       (17.5)       (19.5)       (18.5)       (19.0)       (18.9)       (19.5)
  Off-Budget.................................................        (5.1)        (0.9)        (1.1)        (1.0)        (0.5)        (0.5)        (0.0)
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................      -260.2       -285.3       -288.9       -303.5       -323.1       -344.1       -366.6
  On-Budget..................................................     (-141.9)     (-157.9)     (-153.2)     (-157.5)     (-165.3)     (-173.1)     (-181.6)
  Off-Budget.................................................     (-118.3)     (-127.4)     (-135.6)     (-146.0)     (-157.8)     (-171.0)     (-185.0)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,730.2      2,900.2      2,993.1      3,064.7      3,207.1      3,288.8      3,463.5
  On-Budget..................................................    (2,276.6)    (2,430.1)    (2,500.4)    (2,547.5)    (2,664.8)    (2,718.5)    (2,862.0)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (453.6)      (470.1)      (492.7)      (517.2)      (542.3)      (570.3)      (601.5)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.


[[Page 387]]


                                               Table 25-11.  CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION
                                                                (In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                         Function                              2007 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                2008         2009         2010         2011         2012         2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
  Department of Defense--Military............................       603.0        568.1        494.8        507.8        521.3        535.2        549.4
  Other......................................................        22.9         22.5         22.7         23.1         23.6         24.0         24.5
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, National defense....................................       625.8        590.6        517.5        530.9        544.8        559.2        573.9
International affairs........................................        68.4         34.0         33.7         34.6         35.4         36.3         37.2
General science, space, and technology.......................        26.3         27.4         28.0         28.6         29.3         29.9         30.6
Energy.......................................................         0.6          2.8          4.2          4.5          4.6          4.2          4.0
Natural resources and environment............................        33.8         32.6         32.2         32.8         33.3         34.2         35.3
Agriculture..................................................        22.8         17.9         20.9         20.2         20.2         20.5         20.8
Commerce and housing credit..................................        10.0          9.3         12.4         11.2         11.2         11.5          9.1
  On-Budget..................................................        (1.1)        (6.2)        (8.6)        (8.7)        (9.0)        (9.6)       (10.2)
  Off-Budget.................................................        (8.9)        (3.1)        (3.8)        (2.5)        (2.2)        (1.9)       (-1.1)
Transportation...............................................        78.7         76.3         71.8         82.3         83.2         84.1         85.1
Community and regional development...........................        17.6         19.8         14.4         14.8         15.1         15.5         15.8
Education, training, employment, and social services.........        93.7         91.7         92.3         95.9         97.4        100.9         97.8
Health.......................................................       244.3        286.0        299.4        319.6        340.6        362.8        387.6
Medicare.....................................................       385.0        402.8        425.3        454.4        500.5        500.5        558.7
Income security..............................................       368.0        383.4        402.5        415.4        431.6        430.6        446.0
Social security..............................................       589.0        617.9        653.3        690.6        730.4        774.8        824.3
  On-Budget..................................................       (19.3)       (18.7)       (22.9)       (25.3)       (27.5)       (30.3)       (33.6)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (569.6)      (599.2)      (630.4)      (665.3)      (702.9)      (744.6)      (790.7)
Veterans benefits and services...............................        79.6         88.0         87.5         93.5         97.9        103.0        107.5
Administration of justice....................................        46.2         46.4         47.4         46.9         48.4         50.0         51.6
General government...........................................        18.6         20.2         20.7         21.6         22.4         23.2         23.9
Net interest.................................................       237.1        240.6        248.8        262.1        273.8        280.5        284.4
  On-Budget..................................................      (343.1)      (354.9)      (370.6)      (393.6)      (416.0)      (435.2)      (452.1)
  Off-Budget.................................................     (-106.0)     (-114.3)     (-121.9)     (-131.4)     (-142.2)     (-154.7)     (-167.7)
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
  Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............       -49.5        -51.4        -54.0        -58.4        -62.2        -66.0        -70.4
  Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)...........       -12.3        -13.1        -13.8        -14.6        -15.5        -16.3        -17.3
  Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf.........        -6.8        -11.1        -10.1        -10.2        -10.7        -11.1        -11.4
  Sale of major assets.......................................  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........        -0.3   ...........
  Other undistributed offsetting receipts....................       -13.7        -11.8         -2.2         -0.1         -0.1   ...........  ...........
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts...................       -82.2        -87.4        -80.1        -83.3        -88.5        -93.7        -99.1
    On-Budget................................................      (-69.9)      (-74.3)      (-66.3)      (-68.8)      (-72.9)      (-77.4)      (-81.8)
    Off-Budget...............................................      (-12.3)      (-13.1)      (-13.8)      (-14.6)      (-15.5)      (-16.3)      (-17.3)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,863.3      2,900.5      2,932.2      3,076.7      3,231.4      3,328.0      3,494.5
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  On-Budget..................................................    (2,403.1)    (2,425.6)    (2,433.6)    (2,554.8)    (2,684.2)    (2,752.6)    (2,889.9)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (460.2)      (474.9)      (498.6)      (521.8)      (547.2)      (575.4)      (604.6)
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          MEMORANDUM
Discretionary budget authority:
  National defense...........................................       622.4        587.2        513.1        526.5        540.4        554.6        569.3
  International..............................................        39.1         36.4         34.8         35.5         36.3         37.2         38.0
  Domestic...................................................       410.8        422.2        420.3        430.4        441.5        453.0        464.8
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total........................................................     1,072.3      1,045.8        968.2        992.5      1,018.2      1,044.7      1,072.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 388]]


                                                Table 25-12.  CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY
                                                                (In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                          Agency                               2007 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                2008         2009         2010         2011         2012         2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch...........................................         4.3          4.4          4.6          4.7          4.9          5.0          5.2
Judicial Branch..............................................         6.2          6.5          6.7          6.9          7.1          7.4          7.6
Agriculture..................................................        91.8         90.5         98.4         99.0        100.5        102.9        105.3
Commerce.....................................................         7.8          7.6          7.9          7.8          7.7          7.9          8.1
Defense--Military............................................       603.0        568.1        494.8        507.8        521.3        535.1        549.4
Education....................................................        68.3         66.6         66.8         69.9         70.8         73.8         70.1
Energy.......................................................        21.7         21.2         22.2         22.6         23.0         23.5         23.9
Health and Human Services....................................       658.4        717.0        748.7        799.3        867.4        886.4        968.1
Homeland Security............................................        39.7         41.1         38.6         37.5         38.7         39.8         41.0
Housing and Urban Development................................        35.4         40.4         40.8         41.6         42.4         43.3         44.2
Interior.....................................................        10.4         10.5         10.7         10.9         10.9         11.2         11.6
Justice......................................................        24.8         24.2         26.8         25.7         26.5         27.4         28.3
Labor........................................................        47.6         49.1         52.0         53.5         55.6         57.5         59.6
State........................................................        17.1         19.9         18.8         19.2         19.7         20.1         20.6
Transportation...............................................        66.0         63.4         58.6         68.7         69.1         69.5         69.9
Treasury.....................................................       492.7        519.1        540.6        569.2        597.7        620.1        645.0
Veterans Affairs.............................................        79.6         88.0         87.4         93.3         97.7        102.7        107.2
Corps of Engineers...........................................         7.0          5.6          5.3          5.5          5.6          5.8          5.9
Other Defense Civil Programs.................................        47.2         49.0         51.2         52.7         54.0         55.1         56.0
Environmental Protection Agency..............................         7.5          7.4          7.6          7.8          8.1          8.3          8.5
Executive Office of the President............................         0.4          0.3          0.3          0.4          0.4          0.4          0.4
General Services Administration..............................         0.1          0.2            *            *            *            *            *
International Assistance Programs............................        51.4         13.9         14.2         14.6         14.9         15.3         15.6
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................        16.3         17.1         17.5         17.9         18.3         18.8         19.2
National Science Foundation..................................         6.1          6.2          6.3          6.4          6.5          6.7          6.8
Office of Personnel Management...............................        61.6         66.5         70.8         72.2         74.6         77.2         79.8
Small Business Administration................................         0.5          0.3          0.6          0.6          0.6          0.7          0.7
Social Security Administration...............................       626.3        658.6        695.6        736.9        783.1        822.9        878.2
  On-Budget..................................................       (56.7)       (59.4)       (65.2)       (71.6)       (80.2)       (78.3)       (87.5)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (569.6)      (599.2)      (630.4)      (665.3)      (702.9)      (744.6)      (790.7)
Other Independent Agencies...................................        24.4         22.9         27.4         27.3         27.4         27.3         24.7
  On-Budget..................................................       (15.5)       (19.9)       (23.6)       (24.8)       (25.2)       (25.4)       (25.8)
  Off-Budget.................................................        (8.9)        (3.1)        (3.8)        (2.5)        (2.2)        (1.9)       (-1.1)
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................      -260.2       -285.3       -288.9       -303.5       -323.1       -344.1       -366.6
  On-Budget..................................................     (-141.9)     (-157.9)     (-153.2)     (-157.5)     (-165.3)     (-173.1)     (-181.6)
  Off-Budget.................................................     (-118.3)     (-127.4)     (-135.6)     (-146.0)     (-157.8)     (-171.0)     (-185.0)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,863.3      2,900.5      2,932.2      3,076.7      3,231.4      3,328.0      3,494.5
  On-Budget..................................................    (2,403.1)    (2,425.6)    (2,433.6)    (2,554.8)    (2,684.2)    (2,752.6)    (2,889.9)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (460.2)      (474.9)      (498.6)      (521.8)      (547.2)      (575.4)      (604.6)
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* $50 million or less.