[Analytical Perspectives]
[Economic Assumptions and Analyses]
[14. National Income and Product Accounts]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]



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               14.   NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS

  The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) are an integrated set 
of measures of aggregate U.S. economic activity that are prepared by the 
Department of Commerce. Because the NIPAs include Federal transactions 
and are widely used in economic analysis, it is important to show the 
NIPAs' distinctive presentation of Federal transactions and contrast it 
with that of the budget.
  One of the main purposes of the NIPAs is to measure the Nation's total 
production of goods and services, known as gross domestic product (GDP), 
and the incomes generated in its production. GDP is a measure of the 
Nation's final output, which excludes intermediate product to avoid 
double counting. Both government consumption expenditures and government 
gross investment--State and local as well as Federal--are included in 
GDP as part of final output, together with personal consumption 
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, and net exports of 
goods and services (exports minus imports).
  Other government expenditures--social benefits, grants to State and 
local governments, subsidies, and interest payments--are not purchases 
of final output and as such are not included in GDP; however, these 
transactions are recorded in the NIPA government current receipts and 
expenditures account, together with government consumption expenditures 
(which includes depreciation on government gross investment).
  Federal transactions are included in the NIPAs as part of the 
government sector.\1\ The Federal subsector is designed to measure 
certain important economic effects of Federal transactions in a way that 
is consistent with the conceptual framework of the entire set of 
integrated accounts. The NIPA Federal subsector is not itself a budget, 
because it is not a financial plan for proposing, determining, and 
controlling the fiscal activities of the Government. Also, it features 
current transactions, whereas the budget includes transactions that the 
NIPA current account omits from its current receipts and current 
expenditure totals as ``capital transfers.'' NIPA concepts also differ 
in many other ways from budget concepts, and therefore the NIPA 
presentation of Federal finances is significantly different from that of 
the budget.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ The other subsector of the NIPA government sector is a single set 
of transactions for all U.S. State and local units of government, 
treated as a consolidated entity.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

              Differences Between the NIPAs and the Budget

  Federal transactions in the NIPAs are measured according to NIPA 
accounting concepts in order to be compatible with the purposes of the 
NIPAs and other transactions recorded in the NIPAs. As a result they 
differ from the budget in netting and grossing, timing, and coverage. 
These differences cause current receipts and expenditures in the NIPAs 
to differ from total receipts and outlays in the budget, albeit by 
relatively small amounts.\2\ Differences in timing and coverage also 
cause the NIPA net Federal Government saving to differ from the budget 
surplus or deficit. Netting and grossing differences have equal effects 
on receipts and expenditures and thus have no effect on net Government 
saving. Besides these differences, the NIPAs combine transactions into 
different categories from those used in the budget.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \2\ Over the period 1994-2006, NIPA current expenditures averaged 3.8 
percent higher than budget outlays, while NIPA current receipts averaged 
2.4 percent higher than budget receipts.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Netting and grossing differences arise when the budget records certain 
transactions as offsets to outlays, while they are recorded as current 
receipts in the NIPAs (or vice versa). The budget treats all income that 
comes to the Government due to its sovereign powers--mainly, but not 
exclusively, taxes--as governmental receipts. The budget offsets against 
outlays any income that arises from voluntary business-type transactions 
with the public. The NIPAs often follow this concept as well, and income 
to Government revolving accounts (such as the Government Printing 
Office) is offset against their expenditures. However, the NIPAs have a 
narrower definition of ``business-type transactions'' than does the 
budget. Two classes of receipts, rents and royalties, and some 
regulatory or inspection fees, both of which are classified as offsets 
to outlays in the budget, are recorded in the NIPAs as Government 
receipts (income receipts on assets and current transfer receipts, 
respectively). The NIPAs include Medicare premiums as Government 
receipts, while the budget classifies them as business-type transactions 
(offsetting receipts). In addition, the NIPAs treat the net surplus of 
Government enterprises as a component of current receipts.
  In the budget, any intragovernmental income paid from one account to 
another is offset against outlays rather than being recorded as a 
receipt so that total outlays and receipts measure transactions with the 
public. Government contributions for Federal employee social insurance 
(such as Social Security) is an example: the budget offsets these 
payments against outlays. In contrast, the NIPAs treat the Federal 
Government like any other employer and show contributions for Federal 
employee social insurance as expenditures by the employing agencies and 
as governmental (rather than offsetting) receipts. The NIPAs also impute 
certain transactions that are not explicit in the budget. For example, 
unemployment benefits for Federal employees are financed by direct 
appropriations rather than social insurance contributions. The NIPAs 
impute social insurance contributions by employing agencies to finance

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these benefits--again, treating the Federal Government like any other 
employer.
   Timing differences for receipts occur because the NIPAs generally 
record personal taxes and social insurance contributions when they are 
paid and business taxes when they accrue, while the budget generally 
records all receipts when they are received. Thus the NIPAs attribute 
corporations' final settlement payments back to the quarter(s) in which 
the profits that gave rise to the tax liability occurred. The delay 
between accrual of liability and Treasury receipt of payment can result 
in significant timing differences between NIPA and budget measures of 
receipts for any given accounting period.
  Timing differences also occur for expenditures. When the first day of 
a month falls on a weekend or holiday, monthly benefit checks normally 
mailed on the first day of the month may be mailed out a day or two 
earlier; the budget then reflects two payments in one month and none the 
next. As a result, the budget totals occasionally reflect 13 monthly 
payments in one year and only 11 the next. NIPA expenditure figures 
always reflect 12 benefit payments per year, giving rise to a timing 
difference compared to the budget.
  Coverage differences also differentiate the budget and the NIPAs. A 
coverage difference arises on the expenditure side because of the NIPA 
treatment of Government investment. The budget includes outlays for 
Federal investments as they are paid, while the NIPA Federal current 
account instead excludes current investments but includes a depreciation 
charge on past investments (``consumption of general government fixed 
capital'') as part of ``current expenditures.'' The inclusion of 
depreciation on fixed capital (structures, equipment and software) in 
current expenditures is a proxy for the services that capital renders; 
i.e., for its contribution to Government output of public services.
  Certain items in the budget are excluded from the NIPA Federal current 
account because they are capital transfers that are related to the 
acquisition or sale of assets, and not related to current consumption or 
income. Examples include Federal investment grants to State and local 
governments, investment subsidies to business, lump sum payments to 
amortize the unfunded liability of the Uniformed Services Retiree Health 
Care Fund, and forgiveness of debt owed by foreign governments. 
Likewise, estate and gift taxes, included in budget receipts, are 
excluded from NIPA current receipts as being capital transfers. They 
also exclude the proceeds from the sales of nonproduced assets such as 
land. Bonuses paid on Outer Continental Shelf oil leases and proceeds 
from broadcast spectrum auctions are shown as offsetting receipts in the 
budget and are deducted from budget outlays. In the NIPAs these 
transactions are excluded from the Federal current account as an 
exchange of assets with no current production involved. Also unlike the 
budget, the NIPAs exclude transactions with U.S. territories.
  The treatment of Government pension plan income and outgo creates a 
coverage difference. Whereas the budget treats employee payments to 
these pension plans as governmental receipts, and employer contributions 
by agencies as offsets to outlays because they are intragovernmental, 
the NIPAs treat both of these components of employee compensation as 
personal income, in the same way as it treats contributions to pension 
plans in the private (household) sector. Likewise, the budget records a 
Government check to a retired Government employee as an outlay, but 
under NIPA concepts, no Government expenditure occurs at that time; the 
payment is treated (like private pension payments) as a transfer of 
income within the household sector.
  Financial transactions such as loan disbursements, loan repayments, 
loan asset sales, and loan guarantees are excluded from the NIPAs on the 
grounds that such transactions simply involve an exchange of assets 
rather than current production, income, or consumption. In contrast, 
under the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990, the budget records the 
estimated subsidy cost of the direct loan or loan guarantee as an outlay 
when the loan is disbursed. The cash flows with the public are recorded 
in nonbudgetary accounts as a means of financing the budget rather than 
as budgetary transactions themselves. This treatment recognizes that 
part of a Federal direct loan is an exchange of assets with equal value 
but part is a subsidy to the borrower. It also recognizes the subsidy 
normally granted by loan guarantees. In the NIPAs, neither the subsidies 
nor the loan transactions are included. However, the NIPAs, like the 
budget, include all interest transactions with the public, including 
interest received by and paid to the loan financing accounts; and both 
the NIPAs and the budget include administrative costs of credit program 
operations.
  Deposit insurance outlays for resolving failed banks and thrift 
institutions are similarly excluded from the NIPAs on the grounds that 
there are no offsetting current income flows from these transactions. In 
1991, this exclusion was the largest difference between the NIPAs and 
the budget and made NIPA net Government saving a significantly smaller 
negative number than the budget deficit that year. In subsequent years, 
as assets acquired from failed financial institutions were sold, these 
collections tended to make the budget deficit a smaller negative figure 
than NIPA net Federal Government saving.

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                                                    Table 14-1.  FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS, 1997-2008
                                                                                    (In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                 Actual                                                           Estimate
                      Description                            -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 1997       1998       1999       2000       2001       2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007       2008
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
                      CURRENT RECEIPTS
 
Current tax receipts........................................    1010.2     1105.9     1165.2     1305.6     1266.9     1089.7     1065.9     1118.9     1323.9     1527.2     1639.9     1708.9
  Personal current taxes....................................     729.0      814.1      868.5      987.4      993.8      851.1      781.7      787.2      909.0     1028.6     1151.6     1231.6
  Taxes on production and imports...........................      77.2       80.7       82.5       87.8       86.4       86.4       89.1       93.1       99.7      106.0      102.5      108.1
  Taxes on corporate income.................................     198.9      205.9      207.9      223.5      179.5      144.7      186.8      229.4      304.3      381.6      374.5      357.8
  Taxes from the rest of the world..........................       5.1        5.2        6.2        6.8        7.1        7.4        8.3        9.2       11.0       11.0       11.3       11.3
Contributions for government social insurance...............     565.5      604.4      642.2      687.8      713.8      729.6      749.9      788.0      849.9      890.1      944.6      995.6
Income receipts on assets...................................      26.7       22.3       20.9       24.3       26.4       21.3       21.4       22.4       23.7       24.8       25.0       26.2
Current transfer receipts...................................      23.8       21.0       21.8       24.9       26.5       25.5       24.7       26.9        6.4       35.1       33.3       38.2
Current surplus of government enterprises...................       0.2        0.0        0.3       -1.3       -6.5       -1.1        2.5        0.2       -5.3       -3.6       -2.0       -1.6
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total current receipts................................    1626.4     1753.5     1850.3     2041.2     2027.1     1865.0     1864.4     1956.4     2198.6     2473.6     2640.9     2767.4
                                                             ===================================================================================================================================
                    CURRENT EXPENDITURES
 
Consumption expenditures....................................     454.6      452.9      469.5      496.0      519.7      575.5      648.0      707.2      758.0      803.3      865.7      906.9
  Defense...................................................     304.4      301.3      307.2      321.2      335.7      368.4      424.5      470.9      508.8      532.8      579.1      617.2
  Nondefense................................................     150.2      151.6      162.3      174.8      184.0      207.1      223.5      236.3      249.2      270.5      286.6      289.7
Current transfer payments...................................     908.2      940.3      976.4     1023.2     1108.0     1216.6     1308.9     1379.6     1462.5     1543.1     1655.1     1721.1
  Government social benefits................................     700.0      716.4      733.0      762.7      823.6      900.9      956.3     1007.4     1072.0     1151.4     1244.9     1306.1
  Grants-in-aid to State and local governments..............     194.1      209.9      227.7      244.1      268.2      296.7      329.3      347.6      359.5      361.4      373.9      377.2
  Other transfers to the rest of the world..................      14.2       14.0       15.7       16.4       16.3       19.0       23.2       24.5       31.0       30.4       36.4       37.8
Interest payments...........................................     299.4      299.7      285.9      283.3      267.9      234.9      214.6      216.6      242.3      286.7      306.2      331.9
Subsidies...................................................      31.3       33.6       36.1       49.6       53.7       37.9       46.1       43.5       53.6       54.4       47.3       46.3
Wage disbursements less accruals............................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
      Total current expenditures............................    1693.5     1726.5     1767.9     1852.0     1949.3     2064.9     2217.6     2346.9     2516.3     2687.5     2874.3     3006.2
                                                             ===================================================================================================================================
      Net Federal Government saving.........................     -67.1       27.0       82.4      189.2       77.8     -199.9     -353.2     -390.5     -317.7     -213.9     -233.4     -238.9
 
          ADDENDUM: TOTAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
 
Current receipts............................................    1626.4     1753.5     1850.3     2041.2     2027.1     1865.0     1864.4     1956.4     2198.6     2473.6     2640.9     2767.4
Capital transfer receipts...................................      19.7       23.9       27.6       28.8       28.2       26.4       21.7       24.7       24.5       27.7       25.0       25.5
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total receipts........................................    1646.1     1777.4     1877.9     2070.1     2055.3     1891.3     1886.1     1981.1     2223.1     2501.3     2666.0     2792.8
 
Current expenditures........................................    1693.5     1726.5     1767.9     1852.0     1949.3     2064.9     2217.6     2346.9     2516.3     2687.5     2874.3     3006.2
Net investment:
  Gross government investment:
    Defense.................................................      44.5       45.4       46.5       48.5       49.9       54.5       59.0       65.0       71.7       76.9       86.7       79.1
    Nondefense..............................................      28.5       29.7       31.9       32.2       30.3       32.6       33.3       33.4       36.0       37.0       38.0       40.0
  Less: Consumption of fixed capital:
    Defense.................................................      60.6       59.8       59.7       60.2       60.3       60.4       61.4       63.4       67.2       70.8       74.2       77.2
    Nondefense..............................................      21.8       22.9       24.5       26.5       27.7       28.2       28.7       29.3       30.7       32.5       32.4       33.5
Capital transfer payments...................................      29.0       28.2       31.3       39.3       39.8       44.3       62.0       62.9       66.0       69.4       77.8       77.4
Net purchases of nonproduced assets.........................     -11.0       -5.3       -1.7       -0.3       -0.9        0.3        0.1        0.1       -0.9        0.0      -13.7      -13.3
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total expenditures....................................    1702.3     1741.8     1791.8     1885.1     1980.3     2108.0     2281.9     2415.6     2591.2     2767.6     2956.5     3079.0
                                                             ===================================================================================================================================
      Net lending or net borrowing (-)......................     -56.2       35.7       86.1      185.0       75.0     -216.7     -395.8     -434.5     -368.1     -266.2     -290.6    -286.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$50 million or less.

                     Federal Sector Current Receipts

  Table 14-1 shows Federal current receipts in the five major categories 
and four of the subcategories used in the NIPAs, which are similar to 
the budget categories but with significant differences.
  Current tax receipts is the largest category of current receipts, and 
its personal current taxes subcategory--composed primarily of the 
individual income tax--is the largest single subcategory. The NIPAs' 
taxes on corporate income subcategory differs in classification from the 
corresponding budget category primarily because the NIPAs include the 
deposit of earnings of the Federal Reserve System as corporate income 
taxes, while the budget treats these collections as miscellaneous 
receipts. (The timing difference between the NIPAs and the budget is 
especially large for corporate receipts.) The taxes on production and 
imports subcategory is composed of excise taxes and customs duties.

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  Contributions for Government social insurance is the second largest 
category of current receipts. It differs from the corresponding budget 
category primarily because: (1) the NIPAs include Federal employer 
contributions for social insurance as a governmental receipt, while the 
budget offsets these contributions against outlays as undistributed 
offsetting receipts; (2) the NIPAs include premiums for Parts B and D of 
Medicare as governmental receipts, while the budget nets them against 
outlays; (3) the NIPAs treat Government employee contributions to their 
pension plans as a transfer of personal income within the household 
sector (as if the pension system were private), while the budget 
includes them in governmental receipts; and (4) the NIPAs impute 
employer contributions for Federal employees' unemployment insurance and 
workers' compensation.
  The income receipts on assets category consists mainly of interest 
payments received on Government direct loans (such as student loans) and 
rents and royalties on Outer Continental Shelf oil leases. The current 
transfer receipts category consists primarily of deposit insurance 
premiums, fees, fines and other receipts from both individuals and 
businesses, less insurance settlements from the National Flood Insurance 
Program--virtually all of which are netted against outlays in the 
budget. The current surplus (or deficit) of Government enterprises 
category is the profit or loss of ``Government enterprises,'' such as 
the Postal Service, which are business-type operations of Government 
that usually appear in the budget as public enterprise revolving funds. 
Depreciation (consumption of enterprise fixed capital) is netted in 
calculating the current surplus of Government enterprises.

                   Federal Sector Current Expenditures

  Table 14-1 shows current expenditures in five major NIPA categories 
and five subcategories, which are also very different from the budget 
categories.
  Government consumption expenditures are the goods and services 
purchased by the Federal Government in the current account, including 
compensation of employees and depreciation. Gross investment (shown 
among the addendum items in Table 14-1) is thus excluded from current 
expenditures in computing net Government saving on a NIPA basis, whereas 
depreciation--charges on federally-owned fixed capital--(``consumption 
of general government fixed capital'') is included. The NIPAs treat 
State and local investment and capital consumption in the same way--
regardless of the extent to which it is financed with Federal aid 
(capital transfer payments) or from State and local own-source receipts.
  Although gross investment is not included in Government current 
expenditures, both Government gross investment and current consumption 
expenditures (including depreciation) are included in total GDP, which 
makes the treatment of the government sector in the NIPAs similar to 
that of the private sector. Investment includes structures, equipment, 
and computer software.
  Current transfer payments is the largest expenditure category. 
Transfer payments for Government social benefits consist mainly of 
income security and health programs, such as Social Security and 
Medicare paid to U.S. residents--and to retirees living outside the 
United States. Payment of pension benefits to former Government 
employees is not included, as explained previously. Grants-in-aid to 
State and local governments help finance a range of programs, including 
income security, Medicaid, and education (but capital transfer payments 
for construction of highways, airports, waste-water treatment plants, 
and mass transit are excluded). ``Current transfer payments to the rest 
of the world (net)'' consists mainly of grants to foreign governments.
  Interest payments is the interest paid by the Government on its debt 
(excluding debt held by trust funds, other than Federal employee pension 
plans; and other Government accounts). Where the budget nets interest 
received on loans against outlays, the NIPAs treat it as current 
receipts.
  Subsidies consist of subsidy payments for resident businesses 
(excluding subsidies for investment). NIPA subsidies do not include the 
imputed credit subsidies estimated as budget outlays under credit 
reform. Rather, as explained previously loans and guarantees are 
categorized as financial transactions and are excluded from the NIPAs 
except for associated interest and fees.
  Wage disbursements less accruals is an adjustment that is necessary to 
the extent that the wages paid in a period differ from the amount earned 
in the period.

                                                              Table 14-2.  RELATIONSHIP OF THE BUDGET TO THE FEDERAL SECTOR, NIPA's
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                                                                                                                 Actual                                                           Estimate
                      Description                            -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 1997       1998       1999       2000       2001       2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007       2008
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          RECEIPTS
 
Budget receipts.............................................    1579.4     1722.0     1827.6     2025.5     1991.4     1853.4     1782.5     1880.3     2153.9     2407.3     2540.1     2662.5
  Contributions to government employee retirement plans.....      -4.4       -4.3       -4.5       -4.8       -4.7       -4.6       -4.6       -4.6       -4.5       -4.4       -4.7       -4.7
  Capital transfers received................................     -19.7      -23.9      -27.6      -28.8      -28.2      -26.3      -21.7      -24.7      -24.5      -27.7      -25.0      -25.5
  Other coverage differences................................      -3.9       -5.8       -7.0       -8.0       -7.9       -8.9       -9.0      -10.1      -11.0      -12.2      -12.4      -13.1
  Netting and grossing......................................      69.5       64.5       65.7       70.6       69.9       77.0       85.1       88.4       70.7      112.7      121.7      133.7
  Timing differences........................................       5.5        1.1       -3.9      -13.2        6.7      -25.6       32.1       27.1       14.0       -2.0       21.2       14.4
 
    NIPA current receipts...................................    1626.4     1753.5     1850.3     2041.2     2027.1     1865.0     1864.4     1956.4     2198.6     2473.6     2640.9     2767.4
                                                             ===================================================================================================================================
                        EXPENDITURES
 
Budget outlays..............................................    1601.3     1652.7     1702.0     1789.2     1863.2     2011.2     2160.1     2293.0     2472.2     2655.4     2784.3     2901.9
  Government employee retirement plan transactions..........      31.6       31.3       32.1       31.7       31.5       33.7       33.1       33.5       39.4       42.4       44.4       47.4
  Deposit insurance and other financial transactions........      -6.4       -7.1       -6.1       -9.0       -6.2       -6.7        2.1       -0.8       -0.8       -9.1      -19.2      -25.2
  Capital transfer payments.................................     -28.9      -28.2      -31.3      -35.1      -39.8      -44.1      -45.4      -46.4      -47.7      -51.2      -53.9      -55.8
  Net purchases of nonproduced assets.......................      11.0        5.3        1.7        0.3        0.9       -0.3       -0.1       -0.1        0.7        0.0       13.7       13.3
  Net investment............................................       9.3        7.6        5.7        6.0        7.9        1.4       -2.3       -5.7       -9.8      -10.6      -18.1       -8.5
  Other coverage differences................................      11.4        1.0        2.7        4.0        7.9       -0.6      -13.5      -20.2      -25.1      -38.1       -7.5       -1.1
  Netting and grossing differences..........................      69.5       64.5       65.7       70.6       69.9       77.0       85.1       88.4       70.7      112.7      121.7      133.7
  Timing differences........................................      -5.4       -0.7       -4.7       -5.6       14.3       -6.7       -1.6        5.1       16.6      -14.0        8.9        0.7
 
    NIPA current expenditures...............................    1693.5     1726.5     1767.8     1852.0     1949.3     2064.9     2217.6     2346.9     2516.3     2687.5     2874.3     3006.2
 
                          ADDENDUM
 
  Budget surplus or deficit (-).............................     -21.9       69.3      125.6      236.2      128.2     -157.8     -377.6     -412.7     -318.3     -248.2     -244.2     -239.4
  NIPA net Federal Government saving........................     -67.1       27.0       82.4      189.2       77.8     -199.9     -353.2     -390.5     -317.7     -213.9     -233.4     -238.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.

                      Differences in the Estimates

  Since the introduction of the unified budget in January 1968, NIPA 
current receipts have been greater than budget receipts in most years. 
This is due principally to grossing differences and the fact that estate 
and gift taxes, which the NIPAs exclude as capital transfers, roughly 
matched Medicare premiums, which the NIPAs include as a governmental 
receipt but the budget treats as an offsetting receipt. (In the budget, 
offsetting receipts are netted against the outlay total and not included 
in the governmental receipts total.) Since 1986, NIPA current 
expenditures have usually been higher than budget outlays (from which 
the Medicare premiums and employer retirement contributions are netted 
out as offsetting receipts), despite the omission from NIPA expenditures 
of capital transfer grants and pension benefit payments to former 
Government employees.
  Two components of budget outlays, however, are sometimes sufficiently 
large in combination to exceed the netting and grossing adjustments. 
These are financial transactions and net investment (the difference 
between gross investment and depreciation). Large outlays associated 
with resolving the failed savings and loan associations and banks in 
1990 and 1991 caused those year's budget outlays to exceed NIPA current 
expenditures. With the change in budgetary treatment of direct loans in 
1992 under credit reform, one type

[[Page 207]]

of financial transaction--direct loans to the public--has been recorded 
in the budget in a way that is closer to the NIPA treatment. 
Disbursement and repayment of loans made since that time are recorded 
outside the budget as in the Federal sector of the NIPAs, although, 
unlike the NIPAs, credit subsidies are recorded as budget outlays.
  During the period 1975-1992, the budget deficit was a larger negative 
number than net Federal Government saving as measured in the NIPAs every 
year. The largest difference, $78.8 billion, occurred in 1991 as a 
result of resolving failed financial institutions as discussed above; 
the budget deficit was then -$269.2 billion, while the NIPA net 
Government saving was -$190.5 billion. In 1993-2002, the NIPA net 
Federal Government saving was a larger negative number than the budget 
deficit or lower positive number than the budget surplus each year. For 
2003-2008, however, the NIPA net Federal Government saving was, or is 
estimated to be, a smaller negative number than the budget deficit.
  Table 14-1 displays Federal transactions using NIPA concepts with 
actual data for 1997-2006 and estimates for 2007 and 2008 consistent 
with the Administration's budget proposals. Table 14-2 summarizes the 
reasons for differences between the data. Annual NIPA data for 1948-2008 
are published in Section 14 of a separate budget volume, Historical 
Tables, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2008.
  Detailed estimates of NIPA current receipts and expenditures 
consistent with the budget and including quarterly estimates will be 
published in a forthcoming issue of the Department of Commerce 
publication, Survey of Current Business and on the Bureau of Economic 
Analysis website at www.bea.doc.gov/bea/pubs.htm.