[Analytical Perspectives]
[Crosscutting Programs]
[6. Federal Investment]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]



[[Page 55]]

 
                         6.  FEDERAL INVESTMENT

  Investment spending is spending that yields long-term benefits. Its 
purpose may be to improve the efficiency of internal Federal agency 
operations or to increase the Nation's overall stock of capital for 
economic growth. The spending can be direct Federal spending or grants 
to State and local governments. It can be for physical capital, which 
yields a stream of services over a period of years, or for research and 
development or education and training, which are intangible but also 
increase income in the future or provide other long-term benefits.
  Most presentations in the Federal budget combine investment spending 
with spending for current use. This chapter focuses solely on Federal 
and federally financed investment.
  In this chapter, investment is discussed in the following sections:
    a description of the size and composition of Federal 
          investment spending;
    a discussion of the performance of selected Federal 
          investment programs; and
    a presentation of trends in the stock of federally financed 
          physical capital, research and development, and education.

               PART I:  DESCRIPTION OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT

  For more than fifty years, the Federal budget has included a chapter 
on Federal investment--defined as those outlays that yield long-term 
benefits--separately from outlays for current use. In recent years the 
discussion of the composition of investment has displayed estimates of 
budget authority as well as outlays.
  The classification of spending between investment and current outlays 
is a matter of judgment. The budget has historically employed a 
relatively broad classification, encompassing physical investment, 
research, development, education, and training. The budget further 
classifies investments into those that are grants to State and local 
governments, such as grants for highways or education, and all other 
investments, called ``direct Federal programs'' in this analysis. This 
``direct Federal'' category consists primarily of spending for assets 
owned by the Federal Government, such as defense weapons systems and 
general purpose office buildings, but also includes grants to private 
organizations and individuals for investment, such as capital grants to 
Amtrak or higher education loans directly to individuals.
  Presentations for particular purposes could adopt different 
definitions of investment:
    To suit the purposes of a traditional balance sheet, 
          investment might include only those physical assets owned by 
          the Federal Government, excluding capital financed through 
          grants and intangible assets such as research and education.
    Focusing on the role of investment in improving national 
          productivity and enhancing economic growth would exclude items 
          such as national defense assets, the direct benefits of which 
          enhance national security rather than economic growth.
    Concern with the efficiency of Federal operations would 
          confine the coverage to investments that reduce costs or 
          improve the effectiveness of internal Federal agency 
          operations, such as computer systems.
    A ``social investment'' perspective might broaden the 
          coverage of investment beyond what is included in this chapter 
          to include programs such as childhood immunization, maternal 
          health, certain nutrition programs, and substance abuse 
          treatment, which are designed in part to prevent more costly 
          health problems in future years.
  The relatively broad definition of investment used in this section 
provides consistency over time--historical figures on investment outlays 
back to 1940 can be found in the separate Historical Tables volume. 
Table 6-2 at the end of this section allows disaggregation of the data 
to focus on those investment outlays that best suit a particular 
purpose.
  In addition to this basic issue of definition, there are two technical 
problems in the classification of investment data involving the 
treatment of grants to State and local governments and the 
classification of spending that could be shown in more than one 
category.
  First, for some grants to State and local governments it is the 
recipient jurisdiction, not the Federal Government, that ultimately 
determines whether the money is used to finance investment or current 
purposes. This analysis classifies all of the outlays in the category 
where the recipient jurisdictions are expected to spend most of the 
money. Hence, the community development block grants are classified as 
physical investment, although some may be spent for current purposes. 
General purpose fiscal assistance is classified as current spending, 
although some may be spent by recipient jurisdictions on physical 
investment.
  Second, some spending could be classified in more than one category of 
investment. For example, outlays for construction of research facilities 
finance the acqui

[[Page 56]]

sition of physical assets, but they also contribute to research and 
development. To avoid double counting, the outlays are classified in the 
category that is most commonly recognized as investment. Consequently, 
outlays for the conduct of research and development do not include 
outlays for research facilities, because these outlays are included in 
the category for physical investment. Similarly, spending for physical 
investment and research and development related to education and 
training is included in the categories of physical assets and the 
conduct of research and development.
  When direct loans and loan guarantees are used to fund investment, the 
subsidy value is included as investment. The subsidies are classified 
according to their program purpose, such as construction or education 
and training. For more information about the treatment of Federal credit 
programs, refer to Chapter 7, ``Credit and Insurance,'' in this volume.
  This section presents spending for gross investment, without adjusting 
for depreciation.

                Composition of Federal Investment Outlays

Major Federal Investment

  The composition of major Federal investment outlays is summarized in 
Table 6-1. They include major public physical investment, the conduct of 
research and development, and the conduct of education and training. 
Defense and nondefense investment outlays were $430.4 billion in 2006. 
They are estimated to increase to $434.9 billion in 2007 and are 
projected to decline to $430.1 billion in 2008. Major Federal investment 
outlays will comprise an estimated 15 percent of total Federal outlays 
in 2008 and 3.0 percent of the Nation's gross domestic product. Greater 
detail on Federal investment is available in Table 6-2 at the end of 
this section. That table includes both budget authority and outlays.
  Physical investment. Outlays for major public physical capital 
investment (hereafter referred to as physical investment outlays) are 
estimated to be $221.1 billion in 2008. Physical investment outlays are 
for construction and rehabilitation, the purchase of major equipment, 
and the purchase or sale of land and structures. Approximately two-
thirds of these outlays are for direct physical investment by the 
Federal Government, with the remainder being grants to State and local 
governments for physical investment.
  Direct physical investment outlays by the Federal Government are 
primarily for national defense. Defense outlays for physical investment 
are estimated to be $117.6 billion in 2008. Almost all of these outlays, 
or an estimated $107.8 billion, are for the procurement of weapons and 
other defense equipment, and the remainder is primarily for construction 
on military bases, family housing for military personnel, and Department 
of Energy defense facilities.

                                     

                              Table 6-1.  COMPOSITION OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                   Estimate
                                                                                       2006  -------------------
                                                                                     Actual     2007      2008
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Major public physical capital investment:
  Direct Federal:
    National defense..............................................................      97.3     113.3     117.6
    Nondefense....................................................................      29.0      32.5      31.6
                                                                                   -----------------------------
      Subtotal, direct major public physical capital investment...................     126.3     145.8     149.2
 
  Grants to State and local governments...........................................      64.1      69.2      71.8
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Subtotal, major public physical capital investment............................     190.4     215.0     221.1
 
Conduct of research and development:
  National defense................................................................      73.0      75.5      72.9
  Nondefense......................................................................      49.8      52.7      54.1
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of research and development.................................     122.8     128.1     127.0
 
Conduct of education and training:
  Grants to State and local governments...........................................      56.2      57.3      53.6
  Direct Federal..................................................................      61.0      34.5      28.5
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of education and training...................................     117.2      91.8      82.1
                                                                                   -----------------------------
      Total, major Federal investment outlays.....................................     430.4     434.9     430.1
 
                                    MEMORANDUM
 
Major Federal investment outlays:
  National defense................................................................     170.3     188.7     190.6
  Nondefense......................................................................     260.1     246.2     239.5
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Total, major Federal investment outlays.......................................     430.4     434.9     430.1
 
Miscellaneous physical investment:
  Commodity inventories...........................................................      -1.0      -0.2       0.2
  Other physical investment (direct)..............................................       3.1       3.2       3.4
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Total, miscellaneous physical investment......................................       2.1       3.0       3.6
                                                                                   -----------------------------
Total, Federal investment outlays, including miscellaneous physical investment....     432.5     437.9     433.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Outlays for direct physical investment for nondefense purposes are 
estimated to be $31.6 billion in 2008. These outlays include $18.3 
billion for construction and rehabilitation. This amount includes funds 
for water, power, and natural resources projects of the Corps of 
Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation within the Department of the 
Interior, and the Tennessee Valley Authority; construction and 
rehabilitation of veterans hospitals and Indian Health Service hospitals 
and clinics; facilities for space and science programs; Postal Service 
facilities; construction for the administration of justice programs 
(largely in the Department of Homeland Security), construction of office 
buildings by the General Services Administration, and construction for 
embassy security. Outlays for the acquisition of major equipment are 
estimated to be $13.4 billion in 2008. The largest amounts are for the 
air traffic control system; law enforcement activities, largely in the 
Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation; 
and information systems in the Department of Veterans Affairs.
  Grants to State and local governments for physical investment are 
estimated to be $71.8 billion in 2008. More than two-thirds of these 
outlays, or $51.6 billion, are to assist States and localities with 
transportation infrastructure, primarily highways. Other major grants 
for physical investment fund sewage treatment plants, community and 
regional development, and public housing.
  Conduct of research and development. Outlays for the conduct of 
research and development are estimated to be $127.0 billion in 2008. 
These outlays are devoted to increasing basic scientific knowledge and 
promoting research and development. They increase the Nation's security, 
improve the productivity of capital and labor for both public and 
private purposes, and enhance the quality of life. More than half of 
these outlays, an estimated $72.9 billion, are for national defense. 
Physical investment for research and development facilities and 
equipment is included in the physical investment category.
  Nondefense outlays for the conduct of research and development are 
estimated to be $54.1 billion in 2008. These are largely for the 
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science 
Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and research for nuclear 
and non-nuclear energy programs.
  A more complete and detailed discussion of research and development 
funding appears in Chapter 5, ``Research and Development,'' in this 
volume.
  Conduct of education and training. Outlays for the conduct of 
education and training are estimated to be $82.1 billion in 2008. These 
outlays add to the stock of human capital by developing a more skilled 
and productive labor force. Grants to State and local governments for 
this category are estimated to be $53.6 billion in 2008, more than 
three-fifths of the total. They include education programs for the 
disadvantaged and individuals with disabilities, other education 
programs, training programs in the Department of Labor, and Head Start. 
Direct Federal education and training outlays are estimated to be $28.5 
billion in 2008. Programs in this category are primarily aid for higher 
education through student financial assistance, loan subsidies, the

[[Page 57]]

veterans GI bill, and health training programs. The decline in spending 
from 2006 to 2007 reflects a significant decrease in estimates of 
Federal subsidies due to reduced student loan consolidation activity.
  This category does not include outlays for education and training of 
Federal civilian and military employees. Outlays for education and 
training that are for physical investment and for research and 
development are in the categories for physical investment and the 
conduct of research and development.

Miscellaneous Physical Investment

  In addition to the categories of major Federal investment, several 
miscellaneous categories of investment outlays are shown at the bottom 
of Table 6-1. These items, all for physical investment, are generally 
unrelated to improving Government operations or enhancing economic 
activity.
  Outlays for commodity inventories are primarily for the purchase or 
sale of agricultural products pursuant to farm price support programs. 
Purchases are estimated to exceed sales by $0.2 billion in 2008.
  Outlays for other miscellaneous physical investment are estimated to 
be $3.4 billion in 2008. This category includes primarily conservation 
programs. These are entirely direct Federal outlays.

                  Detailed Table on Investment Spending

  The following table provides data on budget authority as well as 
outlays for major Federal investment divided according to grants to 
State and local governments and direct Federal spending. Miscellaneous 
investment is not included because it is generally unrelated to 
improving Government operations or enhancing economic activity.

[[Page 58]]

                                     

          Table 6-2. FEDERAL INVESTMENT BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS: GRANT AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Budget Authority                             Outlays
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Description               2006         2007          2008          2006         2007          2008
                                  Actual      Estimate      Estimate       Actual      Estimate      Estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL
          GOVERNMENTS
 
Major public physical
 investments:
  Construction and
   rehabilitation:
    Transportation:
      Highways................      36,357        37,555   39,943            33,975        34,914        37,621
      Mass transportation.....       9,768         8,738    9,273             8,430        10,048        10,276
      Air transportation......       3,070         4,267    2,750             3,841         3,821         3,711
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal,                   49,195        50,560   51,966            46,246        48,783        51,608
         transportation.......
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Other construction and
     rehabilitation:
      Pollution control and          1,878         1,961    1,748             1,740         1,685         1,546
       abatement..............
      Community and regional        22,054         5,173    3,535             6,310         9,147         9,231
       development............
      Housing assistance......       6,169         6,127    5,525             7,750         7,566         7,563
      Other construction......         579           311      289               553           533           379
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, other             30,680        13,572   11,097            16,353        18,931        18,719
         construction and
         rehabilitation.......
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, construction        79,875        64,132   63,063            62,599        67,714        70,327
       and rehabilitation.....
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Other physical assets.......       1,423         1,372    1,299             1,515         1,494         1,507
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, major public          81,298        65,504   64,362            64,114        69,208        71,834
     physical capital.........
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conduct of research and
 development:
  Agriculture.................         266           275      229               270           284           276
  Other.......................         169           165      164               171           130           130
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of               435           440      393               441           414           406
     research and development.
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conduct of education and
 training:
  Elementary, secondary, and        38,295        36,230   36,936            37,984        38,258        35,467
   vocational education.......
  Higher education............         501           500      337               540           582           510
  Research and general                 764           784      694               727           813           710
   education aids.............
  Training and employment.....       4,965         5,157    4,803             4,801         4,749         4,543
  Social services.............      10,109        10,239    9,567            10,015        10,255         9,873
  Agriculture.................         456           456      436               423           443           496
  Other.......................       1,700         2,216    1,997             1,682         2,189         1,979
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of            56,790        55,582   54,770            56,172        57,289        53,578
     education and training...
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, grants for             138,523       121,526   119,525          120,727       126,911       125,818
   investment.................
                               =================================================================================
    DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS
 
Major public physical
 investment:
  Construction and
   rehabilitation:
    National defense:
      Military construction          9,500         9,407   11,527             6,439         8,870         9,426
       and family housing.....
      Atomic energy defense            668           628      489               654           577           504
       activities and other...
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, national          10,168        10,035   12,016             7,093         9,447         9,930
         defense..............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Nondefense:
      International affairs...       1,357           924    1,492             1,585         1,542         1,228
      General science, space,        2,114         1,941    2,285             2,183         2,879         3,261
       and technology.........
      Water resources projects       4,815         2,823    2,746             3,161         4,289         3,000
      Other natural resources        1,144           860      884               982           990           956
       and environment........
      Energy..................       1,387         1,245    1,275             1,354         1,215         1,352
      Postal Service..........         950         1,288    1,214               737           793         1,122
      Transportation..........         130           136       64                91           218           123
      Veterans hospitals and         2,867         1,343    2,006             1,946         1,844         1,937
       other health facilities
      Administration of                821         1,658    1,518               467         1,397         1,799
       justice................
      GSA real property              1,911           949    1,420             1,484         1,476         1,839
       activities.............

[[Page 59]]

 
      Other construction......       1,938         1,776    1,342             1,991         1,966         1,680
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, nondefense..      19,434        14,943   16,246            15,981        18,609        18,297
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, construction        29,602        24,978   28,262            23,074        28,056        28,227
       and rehabilitation.....
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Acquisition of major
   equipment:
    National defense:
      Department of Defense...     105,370       126,244   137,220           89,796       103,508       107,398
      Atomic energy defense            510           490      383               444           344           354
       activities.............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, national         105,880       126,734   137,603           90,240       103,852       107,752
         defense..............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Nondefense:
      General science and              604           637      926               578           608           890
       basic research.........
      Space flight, research,          360           290      492               291           543           405
       and supporting
       activities.............
      Postal Service..........       1,339         1,782    1,442             1,430         1,017         1,294
      Air transportation......       3,310         3,333      860             2,615         2,737         1,817
      Water transportation           1,340         1,264      892               882         1,094         1,115
       (Coast Guard)..........
      Other transportation           1,293         1,114      900             1,257         1,188           900
       (railroads)............
      Hospital and medical           1,132           236      770               784           633           604
       care for veterans......
      Law enforcement                1,802         1,902    2,054             1,448         1,891         1,939
       activities.............
      Department of the                237           251      331               261           214           278
       Treasury (fiscal
       operations)............
      Department of Commerce           944           935      890             1,000           875           900
       (NOAA).................
      GSA general services             763           816      833               719           824           865
       funds..................
      Other...................       2,038         1,767    2,544             1,473         1,952         2,425
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, nondefense..      15,162        14,327   12,934            12,738        13,576        13,432
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, acquisition of     121,042       141,061   150,537          102,978       117,428       121,184
       major equipment........
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Purchase or sale of land and
   structures:
    National defense..........         -65           -39      -37               -65           -39           -37
    Natural resources and               97           115     -323               145           129          -301
     environment..............
    General government........         168           164      156               162           164           156
    Other.....................          42           160       25                18            25             2
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, purchase or            242           400     -179               260           279          -180
       sale of land and
       structures.............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, major public         150,886       166,439   178,620          126,312       145,763       149,231
     physical investment......
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conduct of research and
 development:
  National defense:
    Defense military..........      73,559        77,821   78,243            69,323        71,755        69,856
    Atomic energy and other...       3,917         3,608    3,645             3,720         3,726         3,079
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, national            77,476        81,429   81,888            73,043        75,481        72,935
       defense................
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Nondefense:
    International affairs.....         255           255      255               258           258           258
    General science, space,
     and technology:
      NASA....................       8,227         9,131    9,330             6,807         8,438         9,445
      National Science               3,806         3,780    4,373             3,707         3,943         3,894
       Foundation.............
      Department of Energy....       2,914         2,943    3,394             2,966         3,013         3,192
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, general           15,202        16,109   17,352            13,738        15,652        16,789
         science, space, and
         technology...........
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Energy....................       1,219         1,364    1,409             1,156         1,241         1,409
    Transportation:
      Department of                    792           729      788               563           576           499
       Transportation.........
      NASA....................         893           589      730               722           736           669
      Other...................          17            17       18                20            13            13
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal,                    2,921         2,699    2,945             2,461         2,566         2,590
         transportation.......
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Health:
      National Institutes of        27,524        27,641   27,956            26,695        26,974        27,580
       Health.................

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      All other health........         694           676      671               653           659           670
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, health......      28,218        28,317   28,627            27,348        27,633        28,250
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Agriculture...............       1,588         1,485    1,397             1,509         1,511         1,458
    Natural resources and            2,106         1,922    1,947             1,513         1,613         1,674
     environment..............
    National Institute of              366           319      398               398           378           409
     Standards and Technology.
    Hospital and medical care          824           818      822               799           809           799
     for veterans.............
    All other research and           1,919         1,547    1,728             1,545         2,084         1,701
     development..............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, nondefense....      53,144        53,216   55,216            49,311        52,246        53,670
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of           130,620       134,645   137,104          122,354       127,727       126,605
     research and development.
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conduct of education and
 training:
  Elementary, secondary, and         1,355         1,326    1,080             1,656         1,634         1,343
   vocational education.......
  Higher education............      57,017        24,128   20,691            50,716        23,441        17,841
  Research and general               1,993         1,933    2,173             1,902         2,050         2,057
   education aids.............
  Training and employment.....         359           359      364               469           549           534
  Health......................       1,353         1,351      994             1,334         1,311         1,222
  Veterans education,                3,338         2,842    3,332             2,980         3,321         3,316
   training, and
   rehabilitation.............
  General science and basic            889           886      945               902           909           992
   research...................
  National defense............  ...........  ............  ............           5   ............  ............
  International affairs.......         485           474      515               448           462           499
  Other.......................         655           555      611               595           826           672
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of            67,444        33,854   30,705            61,007        34,503        28,476
     education and training...
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, direct Federal         348,950       334,938   346,429          309,673       307,993       304,312
   investment.................
                               =================================================================================
Total, Federal investment.....     487,473       456,464   465,954          430,400       434,904       430,130
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                     

               PART II:  PERFORMANCE OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT

  Introduction. In recent years there has been increased emphasis on 
improving the performance of Government programs. This emphasis began 
with the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993, which requires 
agencies to prepare strategic plans and annual performance plans, and 
then report on their actual performance annually.
  This Administration set out to ensure that agencies worked to improve 
their performance, not just report on it. Beginning in the 2004 Budget, 
the Administration began to assess every Federal program by a method 
known as the Program Assessment Rating Tool, or PART. The Administration 
set a target of assessing all Federal programs over five years. With 
this budget, the fifth year of using the PART, the Administration has 
assessed nearly 1,000 programs, approximately 96 percent of the Federal 
budget.
  The PART assesses each program in four components (purpose, planning, 
management, and results/accountability) and gives a score for each of 
the components. The scores for each component are then weighted--
results/accountability carries the greatest weight--and the program is 
given an overall score. A program is rated Effective if it receives an 
overall score of 85 percent or more, Moderately Effective if the score 
is 70 to 84 percent, Adequate if the score is 50 to 69 percent, and 
Inadequate if the score is 49 percent or lower. The program may receive 
a rating ``Results Not Demonstrated'' if it does not have a good long-
term and annual performance measure or does not have data to report on 
its measures. Chapter 2 of this volume discusses the PART concepts in 
more detail.
  This section summarizes the results of the PART for direct investment 
programs, defined to include capital assets, research and development, 
and education and training. Because an entire program is assessed, not 
just the investment portion of the program, the assessments for some 
programs may cover more than just the investment spending. PART 
assessments of programs that are grants to State and local governments 
are not summarized in this chapter but are summarized in Chapter 8, 
``Aid to State and Local Governments,'' in this volume.
  This section summarizes 244 programs:
    Programs for capital assets are essentially those identified 
          in the PART system as ``capital assets and service 
          acquisition'' (92 programs);

[[Page 61]]

    Programs for research and development are essentially those 
          identified in the PART system as ``research and development'' 
          (121 programs); and
    Programs for education and training (31 programs) are 
          primarily programs in the Department of Education (e.g., 
          Federal Pell Grants) that are not grants to State and local 
          governments. This category also includes programs in other 
          agencies, such as the Montgomery GI Bill in the Department of 
          Veterans Affairs, the Health Professions program in the 
          Department of Health and Human Services, and the Job Corps 
          program in the Department of Labor.
  Information on these and other programs assessed by PART is at 
www.ExpectMore.gov.
  Summary of ratings. Table 6-3 shows that the average rating for the 
244 investment programs that have been rated by PART was ``Moderately 
Effective''. Of these programs:
    57 were rated Effective;
    83 were rated Moderately Effective;
    55 were rated Adequate;
    8 were rated Ineffective; and
    41 were rated ``Results Not Demonstrated''.

                                     

              Table 6-3.  SUMMARY OF PART RATINGS AND SCORES FOR DIRECT FEDERAL INVESTMENT PROGRAMS
                         (Excludes grants to State and local governments for investment)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Type of Investment
                                                         -------------------------------------------------------
                        Criteria                                                      Education
                                                           Physical   Research and       and      All investment
                                                           capital     development     training      programs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Average scores
 
Purpose.................................................        84%             92%          80%             88%
Planning................................................        80%             83%          74%             81%
Management..............................................        83%             87%          72%             84%
Results/Accountability..................................        56%             60%          35%             55%
Weighted Average \1\....................................        69%             74%          55%             70%
Average Rating..........................................   Adequate      Moderately     Adequate      Moderately
                                                                          effective                    effective
 
                                                        Number of Programs
 
                       Ratings \2\
Effective...............................................         20              35            2              57
Moderately effective....................................         31              49            3              83
Adequate................................................         20              21           14              55
Ineffective.............................................          2               3            3               8
Results not demonstrated................................         19              13            9              41
                                                         -------------------------------------------------------
Total number of investment programs rated...............         92             121           31             244
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Weighted as follows: Purpose (20 percent), Planning (10 percent), Management (20 percent), Results/
  Accountability (50 percent).
\2\ The rating of Effective indicates a score of 85 percent or more; Moderately Effective, 70-84 percent;
  Adequate, 50-69 percent; and Ineffective, 49 percent or less.

  Assessments of individual programs. The ratings of ten of the largest 
physical capital and education and training investment programs are 
summarized here. Information on research and development is in Chapter 
5, ``Research and Development'' in this volume.

Capital Assets

  Department of Defense. Air Force Acquisition Systems. ($31.8 billion 
in 2006). Rating: Moderately Effective. This program acquires the 
equipment and other materiel needed by the Air Force to enable it to 
fulfill its mission of defeating enemy forces and protecting American 
troops.
  The Air Force acquisition system delivers equipment that generally 
meets its required performance goals and fulfills the warfighters' 
needs. The acquisition system does not include control mechanisms to 
effectively limit factors which contribute to cost and schedule 
overruns. While the acquisition system already includes a limited number 
of specific performance measures, additional measures would help to 
better determine how well the acquisition system is performing.
  Department of Defense. Marine Corps/Expeditionary Warfare. ($14.0 
billion in 2006). Rating: Moderately Effective. Expeditionary warfare is 
the temporary use of Marine Corps force in foreign countries. The 
expeditionary warfare program consists of specific investment

[[Page 62]]

programs for aviation assets, amphibious ships, weapons systems, 
equipment, vehicles, ammunition, and research and development.
  The Department of Defense (DoD) has articulated a limited number of 
long-term performance measures for the expeditionary warfare program in 
response to an earlier assessment. DoD has identified goals related to 
Joint and Coalition Proficiency, Operational Reach, Force Projection, 
Sustainability, and Operational and Organizational Adaptability for the 
expeditionary warfare capability.
  Department of Defense. Navy Shipbuilding ($13.4 billion in 2006). 
Rating: Adequate.This program buys new ships and overhauls existing 
ships. New ships are built at six privately-owned shipyards. Overhauls 
of existing ships are performed at both privately-owned and publicly-
owned shipyards. The Navy currently has 281 ships in the fleet.
  The Navy has specific cost, schedule, and performance goals for each 
shipbuilding program. The Navy conducts periodic reviews of programs at 
major milestones of development and uses a structured reporting regime 
to help monitor the status of ship cost, schedule, and performance. The 
Navy has experienced cost increases and schedule slips on some ship 
construction programs, although overall performance is adequate.
  Department of Defense (DoD). Air Combat Program ($13.4 billion in 
2006). Rating: Moderately Effective. The purpose of this program is to 
enable DoD to successfully wage war in the air by developing and 
producing a variety of tactical fighter and strike aircraft.
  DoD's management of the overall air combat program is currently based 
on the extensive system of regulations governing how individual 
acquisition programs are managed. Through these regulations DoD tracks 
the progress of individual programs and can hold managers accountable 
for their programs. DoD's individual programs within the overall air 
combat program are delivering aircraft at targeted rates, but in several 
cases, such as the F/A-22, at greater cost than projected.
  Department of Defense. Future Combat Systems/Modularity Land Warfare 
($9.7 billion in 2006). Rating: Moderately Effective. The Army's 
complementary transformation initiatives, Modularity and the Future 
Combat Systems, are designed to provide regional combatant commanders 
and soldiers with a lighter, faster, more survivable and rapidly 
deployable force with which to fight and win the United States' current 
and future land conflicts.
  Although the Future Combat Systems program is currently on schedule 
and on cost, the program's long schedule, significant cost, and 
technological complexity put Future Combat Systems at substantial risk 
of cost and schedule overruns as the program moves from research and 
development to acquisition.
  Tennessee Valley Authority. Tennessee Valley Authority Power ($9.3 
billion in 2006). Rating: Moderately Effective. The Tennessee Valley 
Authority (TVA) is the Nation's largest public power company. Through 
158 locally owned distributors, TVA provides power to nearly 8.5 million 
residents of the Tennessee Valley. Some of TVA's former performance 
measures such as cents/KWH are no longer tracked. It is unclear how some 
of the new efficiency measures tracked by TVA relate to program 
performance. The Tennessee Valley Authority committed to a debt 
reduction plan that will reduce its total debt $3 billion - $5 billion 
over a ten to twelve year period. TVA has since increased that debt 
reduction total to $7.8 billion by 2016.
  Department of Energy. Environmental Management ($7.9 billion in 2006). 
Rating: Adequate. This program protects human health and the environment 
by cleaning up millions of gallons of radioactive waste, thousands of 
tons of spent nuclear fuel and special nuclear material, along with huge 
quantities of contaminated soil and water.
  Managers are implementing reforms that are improving program 
performance. For example, the program is renegotiating cleanup contracts 
to include performance incentives. The program is also reorganizing 
operations to focus on risk reduction. The program needs to develop 
annual cost and schedule performance measures. The Department of Energy 
Inspector General and the Government Accountability Office have 
identified better performance measures as critical to assessing program 
achievements.
  Department of Defense. Missile Defense ($7.7 billion in 2006). Rating: 
Adequate. The mission of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is to defend 
the United States, deployed forces, and allies from ballistic missile 
attack. MDA is researching, developing and fielding a global, integrated 
and multi-layered Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS), comprising 
multiple sensors, interceptors and battle management capabilities.
  MDA's strategic planning, resource allocation and management oversight 
activities are properly aligned to accomplish stated mission objectives. 
MDA budget requests and human resource management activities are 
explicitly tied to appropriate performance goals. MDA leaders regularly 
review and evaluate a wide array of performance data to inform and guide 
their decisionmaking.

Education

  Department of Education. Federal Pell Grants ($17.3 billion in 2006). 
Rating: Adequate. This program helps ensure access to postsecondary 
education for undergraduate students by providing need-based grants 
that, in combination with other sources of student aid, help meet 
education costs. The program also promotes lifelong learning by 
encouraging low-income adults to return to school.
  The program has meaningful performance measures and outcome data on 
these measures such as the degree to which Pell Grants are targeted to 
low-income students. New measures such as enrollment and graduation 
rates among low-income and minority students have also been added. The 
program has met its current

[[Page 63]]

long-term performance goals and new measures will help track other key 
program goals.
  Department of Education. Federal Family Education Loan Program ($17.3 
billion (subsidy cost) in 2006). Rating: Adequate. This program provides 
default insurance and interest subsidies to encourage private lenders to 
make postsecondary education loans to undergraduate and graduate 
students. The program also provides interest subsidies for eligible low-
income students to cover interest accrued while in school.
  Overall, the assessment concluded that both this program and the 
William D. Ford Direct Student Loan program fulfill their purpose of 
ensuring that low- and middle-income students can afford the costs of 
postsecondary education. The two programs combined provide over $70 
billion a year in new loans to students. While the PART found that the 
program had meaningful performance measures and outcome data, it also 
found that it could be more cost efficient.

              PART III:  FEDERALLY FINANCED CAPITAL STOCKS

  Federal investment spending creates a ``stock'' of capital that is 
available in the future for productive use. Each year, Federal 
investment outlays add to this stock of capital. At the same time, 
however, wear and tear and obsolescence reduces it. This section 
presents very rough measures over time of three different kinds of 
capital stocks financed by the Federal Government: public physical 
capital, research and development (R&D), and education.
  Federal spending for physical assets adds to the Nation's capital 
stock of tangible assets, such as roads, buildings, and aircraft 
carriers. These assets deliver a flow of services over their lifetime. 
The capital depreciates as the asset ages, wears out, is accidentally 
damaged, or becomes obsolete.
  Federal spending for the conduct of R&D adds to an ``intangible'' 
asset, the Nation's stock of knowledge. Spending for education adds to 
the stock of human capital by providing skills that help make people 
more productive. Although financed by the Federal Government, the R&D or 
education can be carried out by Federal or State government 
laboratories, universities and other nonprofit organizations, local 
governments, or private industry. R&D covers a wide range of activities, 
from the investigation of subatomic particles to the exploration of 
outer space; it can be ``basic'' research without particular 
applications in mind, or it can have a highly specific practical use. 
Similarly, education includes a wide variety of programs, assisting 
people of all ages beginning with pre-school education and extending 
through graduate studies and adult education. Like physical assets, the 
capital stocks of R&D and education provide services over a number of 
years and depreciate as they become outdated.
  For this analysis, physical and R&D capital stocks are estimated using 
the perpetual inventory method. Each year's Federal outlays are treated 
as gross investment, adding to the capital stock; depreciation reduces 
the capital stock. Gross investment less depreciation is net investment. 
The estimates of the capital stock are equal to the sum of net 
investment in the current and prior years. A limitation of the perpetual 
inventory method is that the original investment spending may not 
accurately measure the current value of the asset created, even after 
adjusting for inflation, because the value of existing capital changes 
over time due to changing market conditions. However, alternative 
methods for measuring asset value, such as direct surveys of current 
market worth or indirect estimation based on an expected rate of return, 
are especially difficult to apply to assets that do not have a private 
market, such as highways or weapons systems.
  In contrast to physical and R&D stocks, the estimate of the education 
stock is based on the replacement cost method. Data on the total years 
of education of the U.S. population are combined with data on the 
current cost of education and the Federal share of education spending to 
yield the cost of replacing the Federal share of the Nation's stock of 
education.
  It should be stressed that these estimates are rough approximations, 
and provide a basis only for making broad generalizations. Errors may 
arise from uncertainty about the useful lives and depreciation rates of 
different types of assets, incomplete data for historical outlays, and 
imprecision in the deflators used to express costs in constant dollars. 
The methods used to estimate capital stocks are discussed further in the 
technical note at the end of Chapter 13, ``Stewardship,'' in this 
volume. Additional detail about these methods appeared in a 
methodological note in Chapter 7, ``Federal Investment Spending and 
Capital Budgeting,'' in the Analytical Perspectives volume of the 2004 
Budget.

                      The Stock of Physical Capital

  This section presents data on stocks of physical capital assets and 
estimates of the depreciation of these assets.
  Trends. Table 6-4 shows the value of the net federally financed 
physical capital stock since 1960, in constant fiscal year 2000 dollars. 
The total stock grew at a 2.2 percent average annual rate from 1960 to 
2006, with periods of faster growth during the late 1960s and the 1980s. 
The stock amounted to $2,315 billion in 2006 and is estimated to 
increase to $2,454 billion by 2008. In 2006, the national defense 
capital stock accounted for $700 billion, or 30 percent of the total, 
and nondefense stocks for $1,615 billion, or 70 percent of the total.

[[Page 64]]

                                     

                                                                  Table 6-4.  NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED PHYSICAL CAPITAL
                                                                                  (In billions of 2000 dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                             Nondefense
                                                                                                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                 Direct Federal Capital             Capital Financed by Federal Grants
                                  Fiscal Year                                    Total   National             ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                          Defense     Total              Water                                     Community
                                                                                                   Nondefense   Total     and     Other    Total   Transportation     and      Natural    Other
                                                                                                                         Power                                      Regional  Resources
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Five year intervals:
  1960........................................................................      849       608        242        95       59       36      146           89           27         21        10
  1965........................................................................      937       589        348       123       74       49      225          158           32         22        13
  1970........................................................................    1,101       630        470       146       88       58      324          230           47         26        21
  1975........................................................................    1,137       545        592       166      102       64      426          282           76         42        25
  1980........................................................................    1,258       494        763       195      123       72      568          342          121         79        27
  1985........................................................................    1,462       572        890       222      136       86      668          397          146        100        26
  1990........................................................................    1,740       722      1,018       256      147      109      762          462          158        113        28
  1995........................................................................    1,882       714      1,168       297      157      141      871          534          168        123        46
 
Annual data:
  2000........................................................................    1,979       635      1,345       337      160      178    1,007          618          183        131        75
  2001........................................................................    2,023       631      1,391       351      163      188    1,040          640          186        132        81
  2002........................................................................    2,078       636      1,442       366      165      201    1,076          666          189        134        87
  2003........................................................................    2,138       646      1,492       380      166      213    1,112          690          193        135        94
  2004........................................................................    2,198       662      1,536       391      168      223    1,146          714          196        136       100
  2005........................................................................    2,256       680      1,576       400      168      232    1,176          736          198        137       105
  2006........................................................................    2,315       700      1,615       410      169      240    1,205          758          200        138       109
  2007 estimate...............................................................    2,387       729      1,658       421      171      250    1,236          781          203        139       114
  2008 estimate...............................................................    2,454       756      1,697       431      172      259    1,267          804          207        139       117
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Real stocks of defense and nondefense capital show very different 
trends. Nondefense stocks have grown consistently since 1970, increasing 
from $470 billion in 1970 to $1,615 billion in 2006. With the 
investments proposed in the budget, nondefense stocks are estimated to 
grow to $1,697 billion in 2008. During the 1970s, the nondefense capital 
stock grew at an average annual rate of 5.0 percent. In the 1980s, 
however, the growth rate slowed to 2.9 percent annually, with growth 
continuing at about that rate since then.
  Real national defense stocks began in 1970 at a relatively high level, 
and declined steadily throughout the decade as depreciation from 
investment in the Vietnam era exceeded new investment in military 
construction and weapons procurement. Starting in the early 1980s, a 
large defense buildup began to increase the stock of defense capital. By 
1987, the defense stock exceeded its earlier Vietnam-era peak. In the 
early 1990s, however, depreciation on the increased stocks and a slower 
pace of defense physical capital investment began to reduce the stock 
from its previous levels. The increased defense investment in the last 
few years has reversed this decline, increasing the stock from a low of 
$631 billion in 2001 to $756 billion in 2008.
  Another trend in the Federal physical capital stocks is the shift from 
direct Federal assets to grant-financed assets. In 1960, 39 percent of 
federally financed nondefense capital was owned by the Federal 
Government, and 61 percent was owned by State and local governments but 
financed by Federal grants. Expansion in Federal grants for highways and 
other State and local capital, coupled with slower growth in direct 
Federal investment for water resources, for example, shifted the 
composition of the stock substantially. In 2006, 25 percent of the 
nondefense stock was owned by the Federal Government and 75 percent by 
State and local governments.
  The growth in the stock of physical capital financed by grants has 
come in several areas. The growth in the stock for transportation is 
largely grants for highways, including the Interstate Highway System. 
The growth in community and regional development stocks occurred largely 
following the enactment of the community development block grant in the 
early 1970s. The value of this capital stock has grown only slowly in 
the past few years. The growth in the natural resources area occurred 
primarily because of construction grants for sewage treatment 
facilities. The value of this federally financed stock has increased 
about 40 percent since the mid-1980s.

              The Stock of Research and Development Capital

  This section presents data on the stock of research and development 
(R&D) capital, taking into account adjustments for its depreciation.
  Trends. As shown in Table 6-5, the R&D capital stock financed by 
Federal outlays is estimated to be $1,142 billion in 2006 in constant 
2000 dollars. Roughly half is the stock of basic research knowledge; the 
remainder is the stock of applied research and development.

[[Page 65]]

  The nondefense stock accounted for about three-fifths of the total 
federally financed R&D stock in 2006. Although investment in defense R&D 
has exceeded that of nondefense R&D in nearly every year since 1981, the 
nondefense R&D stock is actually the larger of the two, because of the 
different emphasis on basic research and applied research and 
development. Defense R&D spending is heavily concentrated in applied 
research and development, which depreciates much more quickly than basic 
research. The stock of applied research and development is assumed to 
depreciate at a ten percent geometric rate, while basic research is 
assumed not to depreciate at all.
  The defense R&D stock rose slowly during the 1970s, as gross outlays 
for R&D trended down in constant dollars and the stock created in the 
1960s depreciated. Increased defense R&D spending from 1980 through 1990 
led to a more rapid growth of the R&D stock. Subsequently, real defense 
R&D outlays tapered off, depreciation grew, and, as a result, the real 
net defense R&D stock stabilized at around $420 billion. Renewed 
spending for defense R&D in recent years has begun to increase the 
stock, and it is projected to increase to $468 billion in 2008.
  The growth of the nondefense R&D stock slowed from the 1970s to the 
1980s, from an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the 1970s to a rate of 2.1 
percent in the 1980s. Gross investment in real terms fell during much of 
the 1980s, and about three-fourths of new outlays went to replacing 
depreciated R&D. Since 1988, however, nondefense R&D outlays have been 
on an upward trend while depreciation has edged down. As a result, the 
net nondefense R&D capital stock has grown more rapidly.

                                     

                                        Table 6-5.  NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT \1\
                                                              (In billions of 2000 dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     National Defense                        Nondefense                         Total Federal
                                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Applied                              Applied                              Applied
               Fiscal Year                                Basic      Research                  Basic      Research                  Basic      Research
                                              Total     Research       and         Total     Research       and         Total     Research       and
                                                                   Development                          Development                          Development
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Five year intervals:
  1970...................................         261          16          245         215          67          148         475          82          393
  1975...................................         276          21          255         262          97          165         538         118          421
  1980...................................         279          25          255         311         131          179         590         156          434
  1985...................................         321          30          291         339         174          165         659         204          455
  1990...................................         403          36          367         382         229          154         785         265          520
  1995...................................         423          43          380         461         294          167         884         336          547
 
Annual data:
  2000...................................         423          48          375         542         368          175         966         416          549
  2001...................................         421          50          371         563         386          177         984         436          548
  2002...................................         420          52          368         587         406          181       1,007         458          549
  2003...................................         423          53          370         613         428          186       1,036         481          555
  2004...................................         431          54          376         639         449          190       1,070         504          566
  2005...................................         442          56          386         665         471          194       1,107         527          580
  2006...................................         452          57          395         690         493          197       1,142         549          593
  2007 estimate..........................         462          58          404         716         513          203       1,178         572          606
  2008 estimate..........................         468          59          409         742         535          207       1,210         594          616
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Excludes stock of physical capital for research and development, which is included in Table 6-4.

                     The Stock of Education Capital

  This section presents estimates of the stock of education capital 
financed by the Federal Government.
   As shown in Table 6-6, the federally financed education stock is 
estimated at $1,451 billion in 2006 in constant 2000 dollars. The vast 
majority of the Nation's education stock is financed by State and local 
governments, and by students and their families themselves. This 
federally financed portion of the stock represents about 3 percent of 
the Nation's total education stock. \1\ Nearly three-quarters is for 
elementary and secondary education, while the remainder is for higher 
education.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ For estimates of the total education stock, see table 13-5 in 
Chapter 13, ``Stewardship.''

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 66]]

  The federally financed education stock has grown steadily in the last 
few decades, with an average annual growth rate of 5.2 percent from 1970 
to 2006. The expansion of the education stock is projected to continue 
under this budget, with the stock rising to $1,557 billion in 2008.

                                     

      Table 6-6.  NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED EDUCATION CAPITAL
                      (In billions of 2000 dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Elementary
                                        Total         and        Higher
            Fiscal Year               Education    Secondary   Education
                                        Stock      Education
------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Five year intervals:
  1960.............................          71            51         20
  1965.............................         102            74         28
  1970.............................         234           184         50
  1975.............................         349           282         67
  1980.............................         482           379        103
  1985.............................         577           434        143
  1990.............................         736           549        188
  1995.............................         880           643        237
 
Annual data:
  2000.............................       1,133           825        308
  2001.............................       1,184           859        325
  2002.............................       1,227           890        336
  2003.............................       1,267           924        343
  2004.............................       1,328           961        367
  2005.............................       1,383         1,013        370
  2006.............................       1,451         1,057        394
  2007 estimate....................       1,505         1,099        406
  2008 estimate....................       1,557         1,141        415
------------------------------------------------------------------------