[Analytical Perspectives]
[Current Services Estimates]
[25. Current Services Estimates]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]



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                     25.  CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES

                                     

                                      Table 25-1.  BASELINE CATEGORY TOTALS
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2006       2007       2008       2009       2010       2011       2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts...........................    2,407      2,550      2,714      2,831      3,008      3,151      3,348
Outlays:
  Discretionary:
    DoD-Military...................      499        511        444        455        464        475        486
    Homeland security..............       31         35         36         38         36         37         38
    International affairs..........       36         36         34         34         33         33         33
    Other discretionary............      451        450        448        450        454        463        470
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, discretionary..........    1,017      1,032        961        976        987      1,008      1,028
  Mandatory:
    Social Security................      544        582        608        640        678        718        762
    Medicare.......................      325        367        391        418        447        493        503
    Medicaid and SCHIP.............      186        197        209        224        241        259        279
    Other mandatory................      357        318        330        348        361        381        374
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, mandatory..............    1,412      1,465      1,537      1,631      1,727      1,850      1,918
  Net interest.....................      227        238        254        258        259        258        255
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays......................    2,655      2,735      2,752      2,866      2,973      3,116      3,201
 
  Unified deficit..................     -248       -185        -38        -35         34         35        147
    On-budget......................     -434       -368       -250       -261       -210       -228       -130
    Off-budget.....................      186        183        212        225        244        263        277
 
Memorandum:
  BEA baseline deficit.............     -248       -186        -81       -104        -34         95        287
    Do not extend emergencies......  .........  .........       40         64         72         76         79
    Correct growth rates for pay...  .........  .........        2          3          3          3          3
    Remove special rule for          .........  .........        *          *          1          1          1
     administrative expenses of
     selected programs.............
    Extend certain tax provisions..  .........        *         -1         -2        -14       -146       -225
    Related debt service...........  .........        *          1          4          7          7          2
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Current baseline deficit.........     -248       -185        -38        -35         34         35        147
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Current services estimates or the ``baseline'' are designed to provide 
a neutral benchmark against which policy proposals can be measured. 
Since the early 1970s when the first requirements for the calculation of 
a ``current services'' baseline were enacted, a variety of concepts and 
measures have been employed. Shortly after enactment of the Budget 
Enforcement Act (BEA) which provided detailed rules for calculating a 
baseline, there was a consensus to define the current services estimates 
according to those rules. However, that baseline has serious technical 
flaws, which compromise its ability to serve as a neutral measure. This 
section provides detailed estimates of a baseline that corrects these 
flaws. It also discusses alternative formulations for the baseline.
  Ideally, a current services baseline would provide a projection of 
estimated receipts, outlays, deficits or surpluses, and budget authority 
needed to reflect this year's enacted policies and programs for each 
year in the future. Because such a concept would be nearly impossible to 
apply across all segments of the government, the baseline has instead 
become largely a mechanical construct.
  Moreover, it is important to discuss what a baseline is not. The 
baseline is not a prediction of the final outcome of the annual budget 
process, nor is it a proposed budget. By itself, the current services 
baseline commits no one to any particular policy. Instead, the 
commitments or constraints reflected in the current services estimates 
are based on the tax and spending policies contained in current law.
  The current services baseline is used in a variety of ways: It can 
warn of future problems, either for Government fiscal policy as a whole 
or for individual tax and spending programs. It is also a ``policy-
neutral'' benchmark against which the President's Budget and other 
budget proposals can be compared to measure the magnitude of the 
proposed changes. Table 25-1

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shows current services estimates of receipts, outlays, and surpluses for 
2006 through 2012. They are based on the economic assumptions described 
later in this chapter. The estimates are shown on a unified budget 
basis, i.e., the off-budget receipts and outlays of the Social Security 
trust funds and the Postal Service Fund are added to the on-budget 
receipts and outlays to calculate the unified budget totals. The table 
also shows the current services estimates by major component. The BEA 
baseline deficits are shown as a memorandum in the table. Table 25-2 
shows the changes proposed in the budget relative to the current 
services estimates. Detailed descriptions of the budget proposals can be 
found in the main Budget volume.

                                      Table 25-2.  IMPACT OF BUDGET POLICY
                                            (in billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                         Total
                                        2007       2008       2009       2010       2011       2012   ----------
                                                                                                       2008-2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Services Baseline Deficit..       -185        -38        -35         34         35        147        143
 
Proposals:
  Global war on terror and other
    emergencies....................        -37       -133        -94        -47        -25        -18       -316
 
  Discretionary policy:
    Security.......................         -6        -17        -47        -55        -61        -52       -233
    Non-security...................         -7         -8          6         15         28         37         79
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, discretionary..........        -12        -26        -41        -40        -32        -15       -154
 
  Revenue proposals \1\............        -10        -53        -36        -63        -60        -55       -267
 
  Mandatory proposals:
    Social security personal         .........  .........  .........  .........  .........        -30        -30
     accounts......................
    Other proposals................          *         10         19         21         28         32        110
 
2008 Budget Deficit................       -244       -239       -187        -94        -54         61       -514
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.
Note: Each line includes debt service.
\1\ Includes outlay impact of revenue proposals.

                     Conceptual Basis for Estimates

  Receipts and outlays are divided into two categories that are 
important for calculating the current services estimates: those 
controlled by authorizing legislation (direct spending and receipts) and 
those controlled through the annual appropriations process 
(discretionary spending). Different estimating rules apply to each 
category. There are numerous alternative rules that could be used to 
develop current services estimates for both categories. The next section 
discusses some alternatives that might be considered.
   Direct spending and receipts.--Direct spending includes the major 
entitlement programs, such as social security, medicare, medicaid, 
Federal employee retirement, unemployment compensation, food stamps and 
other means-tested entitlements. It also includes such programs as 
deposit insurance and farm price and income supports, where the 
Government is legally obligated to make payments under certain 
conditions. Receipts and direct spending are alike in that they involve 
ongoing activities that generally operate under permanent authority 
(they do not require annual authorization), and the underlying statutes 
generally specify the tax rates or benefit levels that must be collected 
or paid, and who must pay or who is eligible to receive benefits. The 
current services baseline assumes that receipts and direct spending 
programs continue in the future as specified by current law. The 
budgetary impact of anticipated regulations and administrative actions 
that are permissible under current law are also reflected in the 
estimates.
  If a baseline is intended to reflect current law, then the provisions 
of law providing spending authority and the authority to collect taxes 
or other receipts that expire under current law should be assumed to 
expire. However, the current services baseline assumes extension of 
several types of authority:
     Expiring provisions affecting excise taxes dedicated to a 
          trust fund are assumed to be extended at current rates. During 
          the projection period of 2007 through 2012, the only taxes 
          affected by this exception are taxes deposited in the Airport 
          and Airway trust fund, which expire on September 30, 2007, and 
          taxes deposited in the Highway trust fund, the Leaking 
          Underground Storage Tank trust fund, and the Sport Fish 
          Restoration and Boating Safety trust fund, which expire on 
          September 30, 2011.
     Direct spending programs that will expire under current law 
          are assumed to be extended if their 2007 outlays exceed $50 
          million. For example, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families 
          and child care entitlement to States are scheduled to expire 
          at the end of 2010. The baseline estimates provided here 
          assume continuation of these programs through the projection 
          period. However, programs enacted after the enactment of the 
          Balanced Budget Act of 1997 that are explicitly temporary in 
          nature expire in the baseline even if

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          their current year outlays exceed the $50 million threshold.
     Certain provisions in the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts that were 
          clearly not intended to be temporary are assumed to continue 
          past their expiration date. These provisions include 
          reductions in individual income taxes on capital gains and 
          dividends, increased expensing for small businesses, and 
          reductions in income taxes and estate and gift taxes scheduled 
          to sunset on December 31, 2010. Unlike the two extensions 
          discussed above, the BEA baseline definitions, developed 
          before the enactment of the 2001 and 2003 tax acts, do not 
          provide for extension of these provisions.
   Discretionary spending.--Discretionary programs differ in one 
important aspect from direct spending programs--Congress provides 
spending authority for almost all discretionary programs one year at a 
time. The spending authority is normally provided in the form of annual 
appropriations. Absent appropriations of additional funds in the future, 
discretionary programs would cease to exist after existing balances were 
spent. If the baseline was intended to reflect current law, then a 
baseline would only reflect the expenditure of remaining balances from 
appropriations laws. Instead the current services baseline provides a 
mechanical definition for discretionary programs that is somewhat 
arbitrary. The definition used here attempts to keep discretionary 
spending level in real terms. For 2007, the current services estimates 
for discretionary programs are equal to enacted 2007 appropriations for 
accounts included in the Defense and Homeland Security Appropriations 
Acts. For all other discretionary accounts, current services estimates 
are set at the annualized continuing resolution rate. For 2008 through 
2012, funding for most accounts is equal to this 2007 level adjusted for 
inflation. The inflation rates used here are similar to those required 
by the BEA but adjusted to remove the overcompensation for federal pay 
inherent in the BEA definition. Unlike the BEA requirements, these 
current services estimates assume that federal pay raises are effective 
in January, as required under current law. At the time the BEA was 
enacted, it ignored the nearly contemporaneous enactment of the Federal 
Employees Compensation Act of 1991 that shifted the effective date of 
federal employee pay raises from October to January. Also, the estimates 
presented here exclude the special adjustment for administrative 
expenses for certain benefit programs required by the BEA. This 
provision is inconsistent with the baseline rules for other accounts 
that fund administrative costs. In addition, the baseline estimates 
presented here assume that emergency appropriations enacted for 2007, 
which primarily provide funding for the Global War on Terror, are one-
time only expenditures. The BEA requires that the baseline assume 
funding for emergencies repeatedly through the projection period.

                  Alternative Formulations of Baseline

  Throughout much of U.S. history, budget proposals were often compared 
to either the President's request or the previous year's budget. In the 
early 1970s, policymakers developed the concept of a baseline to provide 
a more neutral benchmark for comparisons. While the Congressional Budget 
Act of 1974 included a requirement that OMB and the Congressional Budget 
Office (CBO) provide estimates of a current services baseline, the 
definition of the baseline was very general and specific guidance was 
not provided.
  Subsequent budget laws have specified in increasing detail the 
requirements for constructing baselines. Current services estimates for 
direct spending programs and receipts are generally estimated based on 
laws currently in place and most major programs are assumed to continue 
even past sunset dates set in law. In the case of receipts, the BEA 
requires only the extension of trust fund excise taxes, but otherwise 
bases the estimates on current law. For discretionary programs, these 
acts instituted a precise definition of baseline with numerous rules for 
its construction.
  It is clear, however, that a number of baseline definitions could be 
developed that differ for those presented in this chapter:
     Extend provisions affecting parts of mandatory programs.  
          Currently, mandatory programs that have current year outlays 
          of over $50 million are generally assumed to continue. 
          However, provisions of law that affect parts of mandatory 
          programs, even those that have been consistently extended in 
          the past, are assumed to expire as scheduled.
     Do not extend any authorizing laws that expire. If all 
          mandatory programs were assumed to expire as scheduled, 
          deficits for 2008 through 2012 would be $314 billion lower 
          than the current estimates. (See the section below on major 
          program assumptions for details on mandatory program 
          extensions assumed in the estimates.) If excise taxes were 
          allowed to expire, the deficit would be $110 billion higher 
          over the period 2008 through 2012. If certain provisions of 
          the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts were assumed to expire, the deficit 
          would be $404 billion lower over the period.
     Straightline appropriations. If all discretionary budgetary 
          resources were to be the same in each year in the projection 
          period as provided for the current year, total outlays would 
          be $18 billion lower in 2008 and $381 billion lower over the 
          period 2008 through 2012.
     Do not extend any appropriations. The current treatment of 
          expiring provisions is inconsistent with the treatment of 
          discretionary spending. All discretionary spending continues 
          whether there is authorization for the program or not and 
          whether funds have already been provided or not. In nearly all 
          cases, funds for discretionary programs have not been provided 
          in advance for years beyond the current year. If rules 
          consistent with the treat

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          ment of other expiring provisions were applied to 
          discretionary spending, no new budgetary resources would be 
          provided. Thus, under a strict ``current law'' approach, the 
          only discretionary outlays that would be included in the 
          baseline would be the lagged spending from the current year 
          budgetary resource. If this rule were followed, outlays in 
          2008 would be reduced by $553 billion relative to the current 
          estimates. Clearly this would provide an unrealistic estimate 
          of future spending and the government's future fiscal 
          position.
  Table 25-3 provides estimates for a variety of changes in baseline 
definitions that could be considered.

                                  Table 25-3.  ALTERNATIVE BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
                                            (in billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2007       2008       2009       2010       2011       2012    2008-2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline surplus/deficit...       -185        -38        -35         34         35        147        143
 
Alternative assumptions (``-''
 represents deficit increase):
  Extend provisions affecting parts         -*         -1         -2         -2         -2         -2         -9
   of mandatory programs \1\.......
 
  Do not extend any authorizing
   laws:
    Mandatory spending.............  .........         41         51         55         80         87        314
    Trust fund excise taxes........  .........        -12        -13        -14        -16        -55       -110
    Certain provisions of the 2001          -*          1          2         14        150        237        404
     and 2003 Tax Acts.............
 
  Straightline appropriations......  .........         18         44         74        106        140        381
 
  Do not extend any appropriations.  .........        553        863      1,005      1,105      1,193      4,718
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Estimates provided here are the totals for the illustrative provisions shown in Table 25-5. This is not a
  completelisting of all provisions that expire.

                          Economic Assumptions

  The current services estimates are based on the same economic 
assumptions as the President's Budget, which are based on enactment of 
the President's Budget proposals. The economy and the budget interact. 
Changes in economic conditions significantly alter the estimates of tax 
receipts, unemployment benefits, entitlement payments that are 
automatically adjusted for changes in cost-of-living (COLAs), income 
support programs for low-income individuals, and interest on the Federal 
debt. In turn, Government tax and spending policies influence prices, 
economic growth, consumption, savings, and investment. Because of these 
interactions, it would be reasonable, from an economic perspective, to 
assume different economic paths for the current services baseline and 
the President's Budget. However, this would diminish the value of 
current services estimates as a benchmark for measuring proposed policy 
changes, because it would then be difficult to separate the effects of 
proposed policy changes from the effects of different economic 
assumptions. By using the same economic assumptions for current services 
and the President's Budget, this potential source of confusion is 
eliminated. The economic assumptions underlying both the budget and the 
current service estimates are summarized in Table 25-4. The economic 
outlook underlying these as

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sumptions is discussed in greater detail in Chapter 12 of this volume.

                                  Table 25-4.  SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
                                   (Fiscal years; dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        2007      2008      2009      2010      2011      2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
  Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
    Current dollars.................................    13,761    14,515    15,306    16,112    16,938    17,786
    Real, chained (2000) dollars....................    11,637    11,985    12,357    12,732    13,114    13,502
  Percent change, year over year:
    Current dollars.................................       5.4       5.5       5.5       5.3       5.1       5.0
    Real, chained (2000) dollars....................       2.8       3.0       3.1       3.0       3.0       3.0
  Inflation measures (percent change, year over
   year):
    GDP chained price index.........................       2.5       2.4       2.3       2.2       2.1       2.0
    Consumer price index (all urban)................       2.0       2.6       2.6       2.5       2.4       2.3
Unemployment rate, civilian (percent)...............       4.6       4.7       4.8       4.8       4.8       4.8
Interest rates (percent):
  91-day Treasury bills.............................       4.8       4.6       4.4       4.3       4.1       4.1
  10-year Treasury notes............................       4.9       5.0       5.2       5.3       5.3       5.3
 
MEMORANDUM
  Related program assumptions:
    Automatic benefit increases (percent):
      Social security and veterans pensions.........       3.3       1.4       2.6       2.5       2.4       2.3
      Federal employee retirement...................       3.3       1.4       2.6       2.5       2.4       2.3
      Food stamps...................................       2.2       4.1       2.6       2.6       2.4       2.4
    Insured unemployment rate.......................       1.9       1.9       1.9       2.0       2.0       2.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     Major Programmatic Assumptions

  A number of programmatic assumptions must be made in order to 
calculate the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the 
number of beneficiaries who will receive payments from the major benefit 
programs and annual cost-of-living adjustments in the indexed programs. 
Assumptions on baseline caseload projections for the major benefit 
programs are shown in Table 25-5. Assumptions about various automatic 
cost-of-living-adjustments are shown in Table 25-4.
  It is also necessary to make assumptions about the continuation of 
expiring programs and provisions. In the estimates provided here, 
expiring excise taxes dedicated to a trust fund are extended at current 
rates. Certain income tax provisions from the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts, 
that were not designed to be temporary in nature, are assumed to be 
permanent for purposes of calculating revenue estimates. In general, 
mandatory programs with current year spending of at least $50 million 
are also assumed to continue. All discretionary programs with enacted 
non-emergency appropriations in the current year are assumed to 
continue. However, specific provisions of law that affect mandatory 
programs (but are not necessary for program operation) are allowed to 
expire as scheduled. For example, under the Tax Relief and Health Care 
Act of 2006, Medicaid Transitional Medical Assistance will expire at the 
end of June 2007. The baseline does not assume additional spending under 
this authority beyond that point. Table 25-6 provides a listing of 
mandatory programs and taxes assumed to continue in the baseline after 
their expiration.
  Many other important assumptions must be made in order to calculate 
the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the timing and 
substance of regulations that will be issued over the projection period, 
the use of administrative discretion provided under current law, and 
other assumptions about the way programs operate. Table 25-6 lists many 
of these assumptions and their impact on the baseline estimates. It is 
not intended to be an exhaustive listing; the variety and complexity of 
Government programs are too great to provide a complete list. Instead, 
some of the more important assumptions are shown.

                         Table 25-5.  BENEFICIARY PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR BENEFIT PROGRAMS
                                         (Annual average, in thousands)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                               Estimate
                                              2006   -----------------------------------------------------------
                                             Actual     2007      2008      2009      2010      2011      2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farmer direct payments....................     1,587     1,579     1,571     1,563     1,555     1,548     1,540
Federal family education loans............     5,883     6,173     6,396     6,640     6,909     7,191     7,487
Federal direct student loans..............     1,714     1,709     1,767     1,832     1,904     1,978     2,057
Medicaid/State Children's Health Insurance    52,273    53,353    53,859    54,400    54,914    55,227    55,622
 Program..................................
Medicare-eligible military retiree health      1,871     1,903     1,938     1,969     1,995     2,025     2,069
 benefits.................................
Medicare:
  Hospital insurance......................    42,684    43,356    44,190    45,132    46,084    47,153    48,505
  Supplementary medical insurance.........    40,100    40,618    41,335    42,134    42,919    43,749    44,894
Railroad retirement.......................       583       573       565       558       552       547       542
Federal civil service retirement..........     2,453     2,471     2,488     2,518     2,541     2,564     2,587
Military retirement.......................     2,116     2,142     2,162     2,178     2,188     2,193     2,196
Unemployment compensation.................     7,538     7,537     7,982     8,372     8,456     8,543     8,574
Food stamps...............................    26,736    26,335    26,245    26,113    25,860    25,661    25,430
Child nutrition...........................    32,748    33,713    34,374    34,942    35,465    35,967    36,416
Foster care and adoption assistance.......       600       616       638       658       680       703       727
Supplemental security income (SSI):
  Aged....................................     1,116     1,113     1,112     1,111     1,113     1,118     1,128
  Blind/disabled..........................     5,762     5,932     6,110     6,255     6,378     6,495     6,604
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, SSI.........................     6,878     7,045     7,222     7,366     7,491     7,613     7,732
Child care and development fund \1\.......     2,300     2,200     2,100     2,100     2,000     2,000     2,000
Social security (OASDI):
  Old age and survivor insurance..........    40,264    40,688    41,263    42,007    42,947    43,964    45,074
  Disability insurance....................     8,373     8,729     9,056     9,329     9,550     9,764     9,954
Veterans compensation:
  Veterans................................     2,683     2,782     2,879     2,977     3,072     3,164     3,252
  Survivors (non-veterans)................       330       334       341       347       353       359       366
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, veterans compensation.......     3,013     3,116     3,220     3,324     3,425     3,523     3,618
Veterans pensions:
  Veterans................................       332       326       320       315       309       304       298
  Survivors (non-veterans)................       203       198       193       188       183       178       174
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, veterans pensions.........       535       524       513       503       492       482       472
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes children served through the CCDF (including TANF transfers) and through funds spent directly on
  child care in the Social Services Block Grant and TANF programs.


[[Page 376]]


       Table 25-6.  IMPACT OF REGULATIONS, EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS, AND OTHER ASSUMPTIONS IN THE BASELINE
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Estimate
                                               -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   2007       2008       2009       2010       2011       2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  REGULATIONS
EPA pesticides tolerance fee..................  .........  .........       -13        -13        -13        -13
Foster care and adoption assistance:
  National Youth in Transition Database.......  .........         6          6          7          6          5
  Impact of Total Case Management.............        10         65         68         71         73         75
Medicaid: \1\
  Payment Reform..............................      -120       -530       -840     -1,170     -1,210     -1,250
  School-based Services Administration Reform.  .........      -615       -670       -725       -785       -850
  Medicaid Graduate Medical Education Reform..  .........      -140       -290       -440       -450       -460
  Medicaid Services Reform....................  .........      -230       -360       -520       -570       -610
  Managed Care reform.........................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Clarifying Regulations......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Payment Error Rate Measurement..............         5          5          5          6          6          7
Medicare: \1\
  Post-Acute Care Provider Reform, Program      .........    -1,000     -1,572     -2,159     -2,637     -2,867
   Integrity, Upcoding Adjustments and other
   efficiency and productivity improvements...
Old age and survivors insurance (OASI) and
 disabilty insurance (DI):
  Reduction of Title II benefits under family         18         19         20         21         23         23
   maximum in cases of dual entitlement.......
  Trial work period...........................         3          2          1          1   .........  .........
  Expedited reinstatement of disability               NA         NA         NA         NA         NA         NA
   benefits...................................
  Continuing disability review failure to            -10        -12        -12        -12        -13        -14
   cooperate process..........................
State Children's Health Insurance Program: \1\
  Payment Error Rate Measurement..............         7          8          8          9          9         10
Supplemental security income (SSI):
  Title XVI cross-program recovery............       -15        -15        -15        -20        -20        -20
  Student earned income exclusion.............         4          4          5          5          5          5
  Expedited reinstatement of disability               NA         NA         NA         NA         NA         NA
   benefits...................................
 
            EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS
 
Provisions extended in the baseline (effect of
 extension):
Spending:
  Child care entitlement to States:
    Child care mandatory......................  .........  .........  .........  .........     1,178      1,178
    Child care match..........................  .........  .........  .........  .........     1,674      1,674
    Child care tribal.........................  .........  .........  .........  .........        58         58
    Training and technical assistance.........  .........  .........  .........  .........         7          7
  Child nutrition:
    Summer food service program...............  .........  .........  .........       347        366        386
    State administrative expenses.............  .........  .........  .........       191        200        208
  CCC market access, bioenergy and commodity
   programs:
    Counter-cyclical payment program..........  .........  .........       439        949        898        944
    Dairy price support program...............  .........        60         55         47         47         47
    Dairy export incentive program............  .........  .........         3   .........  .........  .........
    Direct payment program....................  .........     1,155      5,249      5,249      5,249      5,249
    Marketing assistance loan and loan          .........       735      1,154        566        656        844
     deficiency payment program...............
    Sugar nonrecourse loan program............  .........  .........       170        129        111        117
    Market access program.....................  .........       200        200        200        200        200
    Export credit guarantee programs..........  .........        70         70         70         70         70
    Food for progress.........................  .........       154        154        154        154        154
    Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust...........  .........       140        140        140        140        140
  Conservation reserve program................  .........        22        102        228        604      1,002
  Farm security and rural investment
    Ground and surface water conservation.....  .........         2         17         26         35         43
    Farm and ranch lands protection...........  .........         2         37         65         81         97
  Food stamps:
    Benefit costs.............................  .........    31,875     32,714     33,389     34,115     34,786
    State administrative expenses.............  .........     2,644      2,754      2,865      2,977      3,092
    Employment and training...................  .........       321        330        338        346        352
    Other program costs.......................  .........        59         61         62         64         65
    Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico......  .........     1,612      1,655      1,698      1,739      1,780
    Food donations on Indian reservations.....  .........        80         83         86         88         90
    The emergency food assistance program       .........       140        140        140        140        140
     commodities..............................
    Other activities under the Food Stamp Act   .........        28         27         26         26         27
     of 1977..................................
  Promoting safe and stable families..........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........       345
  Temporary assistance for needy families
   (TANF) resources:
    State family assistance grants (SFAG).....  .........  .........  .........  .........    16,553     16,480
    SFAG to territories.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........        78         78

[[Page 377]]

 
    Tribal work program.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........         8          8
    Health Marriage and Fatherhood............  .........  .........  .........  .........       150        150
    Contingency fund..........................  .........  .........  .........  .........        91         96
    Welfare research..........................  .........  .........  .........  .........        15         15
  Trade adjustment assistance--training and     .........       685        841        918        968        992
   income support.............................
  Trade adjustment assistance--farmers........  .........        15         15         15         15         15
  Veterans compensation--annual cost of living  .........       348      1,132      2,017      2,933      3,876
   adjustment.................................
Revenues:
  Excise taxes dedicated to trust funds:
    Airport and Airway trust fund taxes.......  .........    11,495     12,185     12,906     13,662     14,453
    Aquatic Resources trust fund taxes........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........       516
    Highway trust fund taxes..................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........    35,940
    LUST taxes................................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........       212
    Certain provisions for the 2001 tax cut          188       -690     -1,595    -13,789   -146,193   -224,918
     and 2003 jobs and growth tax cut
     (includes outlay impact).................
Provisions not extended in the baseline
 (effect of extension):
Spending:
  Abstinence education (Children and Families          5         25         44         49         50         50
   Services)..................................
  Biobased product testing....................  .........         1          1          1          1          1
  Biodiesel fuel education....................  .........         1          1          1          1          1
  EPA
    Pesticide maintenance fee.................  .........  .........       -15        -15        -15        -15
    Pesticide registration service fee........  .........  .........        -3         -3         -3         -3
  Farm bill programs:
    Klamath Basin.............................  .........  .........         2          3          6          7
    Grassland reserve program.................  .........        14         38         44         46         48
    Milk income loss contract program.........  .........       300        185        120         85         70
    Small watershed rehabiliation program.....  .........        38         56         65         65         65
    Wetlands reserve program..................  .........  .........        18        200        291        364
    Wildlife habitat incentives...............  .........         1         18         31         45         58
  Medicare, SMI--medicare low income premium    .........       425        440        465        495        525
   assistance.................................
  Medicaid--Transitional Medical Assistance...        35        554        580        601        625        650
  Promoting safe and stable families--court     .........  .........  .........  .........        20         20
   improvement grants.........................
  TANF--supplemental grants...................  .........  .........       229        287        302        319
  Trade adjustment assistance--alternative TAA  .........  .........         6         18         24         25
  Veterans programs:
    Income verification match.................  .........  .........         4         -1         -5         11
    Medicaid for veterans and spouses in        .........  .........  .........  .........  .........      -576
     nursing homes............................
    Adjustable rate mortgages.................  .........  .........         3   .........         3   .........
    Increase loan fees for housing loans......  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........      -170
    Benefits for on-the-job training or         .........        10         14         15         15         16
     apprenticeships..........................
 
      OTHER IMPORTANT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS
 
Child support enforcement (CSE):
  Alternative penalties for Family Support Act        -7         -7         -7         -7   .........  .........
   systems and Statewide Disbursement Unit
   requirements...............................
Federal family education loan program:
  Eliminate voluntary flexible agreements with      -945       -123       -123       -123       -123       -123
   guarantee agencies.........................
Food stamps:
  Tax offset, recoupment, and general claims        -181       -189       -194       -198       -203       -207
   collection.................................
  Quality control liabilities.................        -3         -3         -3         -3         -3         -3
  Allocation of administrative costs between        -197       -197       -197       -197       -197       -197
   public assistance programs.................
Medicare:
  Physicians..................................    59,503     58,634     58,402     57,875     56,708     55,804
  Contracting Reform..........................  .........       -70       -280       -550       -580   .........
Medicaid:
  Financial management recoveries.............      -656       -704       -759       -819       -884       -954
  Vaccines for Children, total program costs..     2,905      2,762      2,751      2,704      2,683      2,675
  Institutional long term care................    34,213     36,302     38,262     40,325     42,506     44,808
  Home and community based institutional          23,548     25,635     28,836     32,435     36,438     40,983
   alternatives...............................
  Pharmaceuticals (FFS, net of rebates).......     9,766     10,533     11,126     12,026     12,966     13,951
  Managed care (including Medicaid MCOs, PHPs,    35,375     40,223     43,738     47,352     51,486     56,030
   PCCM)......................................
State Children's Health Insurance Program          5,647      5,424      5,401      5,497      5,456      5,507
 (Title XXI)..................................
Approved Demonstrations and Pilot Programs:
 \2\
  Medicare, HI:
    Rural Hospice
      Baseline estimate.......................         3          3          3          4   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         3          3          3          4   .........  .........

[[Page 378]]

 
    Mercy Medical
      Baseline estimate.......................         6          2   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         6          2   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Premier
      Baseline estimate.......................     2,894      3,047      3,264   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     2,906      3,059      3,276         12   .........  .........
    Rural Community Hospital  \3\
      Baseline estimate.......................        48         51         53         33   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        58         61         64         40   .........  .........
    New York Graduate Medical Education
      Baseline estimate.......................        69         69         69   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        48         35         17   .........  .........  .........
    Utah Graduate Medical Education
      Baseline estimate.......................         8   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         8   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Medicare, SMI:
    Chronic Care Improvement Program (Medicare
     Health Support)
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       198        177          8   .........  .........  .........
    Expansion of Coverage for Chiropractic
     Services
      Baseline estimate.......................        10   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        14   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Municipal Health Services Programs
      Baseline estimate.......................         4   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        12          3   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Telemedicine
      Baseline estimate.......................         4   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         4   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    United Mine Workers of America
     Prescription Drugs
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        89   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Coordinated Care Disease Management
      Baseline estimate.......................       178         90   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       158         79   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Lifemasters Disease Management Dual
     Eligibles
      Baseline estimate.......................       655        159   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       614        149   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Medicare Lifestyle Modification Program
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Care Management for High-Cost
     Beneficiaries
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        95         82         13   .........  .........  .........
    Low Vision Rehabilitation
      Baseline estimate.......................         8          8          8          8   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        10         10         10         10   .........  .........
    Cancer Prevention and Treatment for Ethnic
     and Racial Minorities
      Baseline estimate.......................         5          5          6          7   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         5          5          6          7   .........  .........
    Medical Adult Day Care
      Baseline estimate.......................         3          3          3          3   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         2          2          3          3   .........  .........
    Demo to Limit Annual Change in Part D
     Premiums
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       640        210         60   .........  .........  .........
    Demo to Transition Enrollment of ``Low-
     Income Subsidy Beneficiaries''
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       360        220        240        140         30   .........
    Part D Reconciliation to States (402
     demos)
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       178   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Part D Payment (reinsurance)
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Part D Late Enrollment Penalty Waiver \4\
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........

[[Page 379]]

 
  Medicare: HI and SMI:
    ESRD Disease Management
      Baseline estimate.......................       192        199        205         53   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       191        198        204         53   .........  .........
    Home Health Third Party Liability
      Baseline estimate.......................       191        174        187        158         13   .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       186        171        182        153         13   .........
    Medicare+Choice Phase I
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         6   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Medicare+Choice Phase II
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        66   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    S/HMO I
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,731        558   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     1,990        664   .........  .........  .........  .........
    S/HMO II
      Baseline estimate.......................       619        198   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       711        228   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Physician Group Practice
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,793        463   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     1,667        468         77   .........  .........  .........
    Medical Savings Account
      Baseline estimate.......................         1          2          4          6          8   .........
      Demonstration estimate..................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    United Mine Workers of America Health
      Baseline estimate.......................       520   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       502          6   .........  .........  .........  .........
  Medicaid (baseline estimates): \5\
    Alabama Family Planning...................       214        238   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arizona AHCCCS............................     4,365      4,839      5,356      5,932      6,571   .........
    Arkansas (ARKids B).......................        91        102   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arkansas Family Planning Services.........       229        249   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arkansas Independent Choices (Cash &               5   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
     Counseling) \6\..........................
    Arkansas TEFRA............................        32          8   .........  .........  .........  .........
    California Family Planning................       612   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    California In-Home Supportive Services           325        378        357   .........  .........  .........
     Plus \6\.................................
    California--MediCal Hospital/Unisured Care       766        766        766        702   .........  .........
    Colorado Consumer Directed Attendant              19          3   .........  .........  .........  .........
     Support \6\..............................
    Delaware--Diamond State Health Plan.......       335        286        302         76   .........  .........
    District of Columbia Childless Adults 50-          3   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
     64.......................................
    District of Columbia HIV..................        11         14         18          6   .........  .........
    Florida Consumer Directed Care Plus (Cash         61         26   .........  .........  .........  .........
     & Counseling) \6\........................
    Florida Family Planning...................       910        967      1,068   .........  .........  .........
    Florida MEDS-AD Program...................       975      1,072      1,180      1,298   .........  .........
    Florida medicaid reform...................     4,875      5,662      6,589      7,683      4,137   .........
    Hawaii Health QUEST.......................       256        289        237   .........  .........  .........
    Illinois Family Planning..................       414        443   .........  .........  .........  .........
    IowaCare..................................       109        117        125        134   .........  .........
    Iowa Familiy Planning.....................       175        189        205   .........  .........  .........
    Kentucky Health Care Partnership Program..       513        568         48   .........  .........  .........
    Louisiana Family Planning.................       445        483        525        569   .........  .........
    Maine HIV.................................         7   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Maryland (Health Choice)..................     1,610      1,086   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Massachusett MassHealth...................     2,757      2,960   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Michigan Family Planning..................       425        462        503        547   .........  .........
    Minnesota (Prepaid Med. Assist. Project          186        148   .........  .........  .........  .........
     Plus)....................................
    Minnesota Family Planning.................       248   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Mississippi Family Planning...............       146   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Mississippi--Healthier Mississippi........        71         78         86   .........  .........  .........
    Missouri Managed Care Plus................        86   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Montana Basic Medicaid for Able-Bodied            35         39         13   .........  .........  .........
     Adults...................................
    New Jersey Personal Preference (Cash &             5          3   .........  .........  .........  .........
     Counseling) \6\..........................
    New Mexico--Family Planning...............       109        114        119   .........  .........  .........
    New York (Partnership Plan)...............     7,142      7,823      7,685   .........  .........  .........
    New York Federal-State Health Reform          10,248     10,907     11,609     12,357     13,153   .........
     Partnership..............................
    North Carolina Family Planning............       424        457        494   .........  .........  .........

[[Page 380]]

 
    Oklahoma Family Planning..................       159        166   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Oregon Family Planning....................       156        169        183   .........  .........  .........
    Oregon Independent Choices \6\............         2   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Rhode Island Rite Care (Medicaid).........       192        169   .........  .........  .........  .........
    South Carolina Family Planning............        54         57   .........  .........  .........  .........
    TennCare II...............................     3,124   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Utah (Primary Care Network)...............       106        110        117   .........  .........  .........
    Vermont Long Term Care Plan \7\...........       121        135        149        166   .........  .........
    Vermont Global Commitment to Health.......       494        538        586        639        160   .........
    Virginia--Family Planning.................       176   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Washington (Take Charge/Family Planning)..       296        312        329   .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin Badger Care (Medicaid)..........        18   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin Family Planning.................        23   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Pharmacy plus (demonstration estimate)
      Wisconsin Pharmacy Plus.................       100   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  State Children's Health Insurance Program
   (Title XXI) (demonstration estimates): \5\
    Alaska....................................         9         10         11   .........  .........  .........
    Hawaii....................................         1          8          9   .........  .........  .........
    Maryland Health Choice \8\................       150   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Minnesota Care:
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....        39         41         39   .........  .........  .........
      Baseline estimate (medicaid funds)......  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Missouri MC+c \8\.........................        56   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    New Jersey Family Care \9\................       167        173   .........  .........  .........  .........
    New Mexico SCHIP \8\......................        26   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Rhode Island (SCHIP RiteCare) \9\.........        34         11   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin (BadgerCare)....................        88   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Health Insurance Flexibility and
   Accountability (HIFA) (demonstration
   estimate--SCHIP funds): \5\
    Arizona HIFA--amendment to AHCCCS.........        36         29         24         26         28        144
    Arkansas HIFA
      Demonstration estimate..................         4          8         13         24         31   .........
      Baseline estimate (medicaid funds)......     1,421      1,604      1,813      2,049      2,318   .........
    Colorado HIFA.............................        13         16         18   .........  .........  .........
    Idaho HIFA................................        13         14         11   .........  .........  .........
    Illinois HIFA (KidCare Parent Coverage)
      Demonstration estimate..................       159   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Baseline estimate (medicaid funds)......         6   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Maine HIFA (Maine Care for Childless
     Adults)
      Baseline estimate (medicaid funds)......       102   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Michigan HIFA.............................       120        112         24   .........  .........  .........
    Nevada HIFA...............................        11         16         19         21         17   .........
    New Mexico HIFA...........................        21         24         27   .........  .........  .........
    Oklahoma Sooner Care Demo+HIFA
      Baseline estimate (medicaid funds)......       998      1,071      1,137        289   .........  .........
    Oregon HIFA (Oregon Health Plan 2)
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....        16   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Baseline estimate (medicaid funds)......     1,603   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Virginia HIFA.............................        12         12         13   .........  .........  .........
  Joint Medicare and Medicaid:
    Minnesota-Dual Eligibles
      Baseline estimate.......................     1,213        339   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     1,213        339   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin Health Partnership Dual Eligible
      Baseline estimate.......................       125         35   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       125         35   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Massachusetts SCO Dual Eligible
      Demonstration estimate..................       175         47   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Baseline estimate.......................       175         47   .........  .........  .........  .........
OASI, DI, SSI:
  Performance of continuing disability reviews
   (baseline levels):
    OASDI.....................................       -11        -60       -128       -211       -378       -714
    SSI (federal).............................       -33       -172       -318       -462       -654       -725
  Collection of overpayments:
    OASI......................................      -719       -779       -836       -892       -949     -1,009
    DI........................................      -691       -769       -843       -915       -984     -1,055
    SSI (federal).............................      -928       -986     -1,043     -1,101     -1,155     -1,217

[[Page 381]]

 
    Debts written off as uncollectable (no
     effect on outlays):
    OASI......................................       134        145        155        166        176        188
    DI........................................       474        527        578        628        675        723
    SSI (federal).............................       415        441        467        492        516        544
  OASDI:
    Payments to states for vocational                 80         88         95        104        112        120
     rehabilitation...........................
  DI:
    Research and demonstration projects.......        50         57         30   .........  .........  .........
  SSI:
    Payments from states for state                -4,050     -4,555     -4,755     -4,960     -5,565     -4,965
     supplemental benefits....................
    Payments for state supplemental benefits..     4,430      4,572      4,772      4,975      5,137      5,428
    Fees for administration of State
     supplement:
      Treasury share..........................      -128       -143       -146       -149       -164       -141
      SSA share...............................      -119       -122       -125       -127       -130       -133
    Research and demonstration projects.......        33         28         27         27         27         27
  Payments to states for vocational                   53         56         59         62         66         71
   rehabilitation.............................
  Performance of non-disability                      602        239          2        -49       -137       -681
   redeterminations (excludes related
   overpayment collections reported above)....
Royalies and offshore minerals management:
  Increased deepwater oil and gas leases        .........       150         60         50         30         10
   royalty rates..............................
  Royalty-in-kind oil to fill Strategic              435      1,102   .........  .........  .........  .........
   Petroleum Reserve..........................
State grants and demonstrations--health care:
  Ticket to work grant programs:
    Infrastructure grant program..............        17         20         20         32         35         37
    Demonstration to maintain independence and        21         22         22         10         10         10
     employment...............................
  High risk pools:
    Initial seed grants.......................         2   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Operation of pools........................        78   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Emergency health services for undocumented         200        200        133        200   .........  .........
   aliens.....................................
  Katrina relief..............................     1,039   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Psychiatric residential treatment                   10         17         28         33         35   .........
   demonstration..............................
  Money Follow the Person demonstration.......        18         57        121        213        320   .........
  Medicaid transformation grants..............        75         75   .........  .........  .........  .........
  Medicaid integrity program..................        55         50         75         75         75         75
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* = $500,000 or less.
NA = Not available.
\1\ Medicare and Medicaid/SCHIP regulations reflect gross outlays.
\2\ Baseline estimates reflect costs absent the demonstration; demonstration estimate reflects costs of the
  demonstration. The differences represent the net impact of the demonstration. Any demonstrations are implicity
  assumed in the current services baseline.
\3\ Costs of this demonstration are offset annually by a reduction to inpatient hospital prospective payment
  rates.
\4\ Costs of this demonstration are estimated to be negligible over 10 years.
\5\ Baseline estimates reflect costs absent the demonstration. Demonstration estimates reflect cost of the
  demonstration.
\6\ Consumer directed program in which ``plan of care'' is converted to a cash allotment. It is expected that
  these will convert to DRA State Plan options upon expiration.
\7\ Adjustments have been made since prior year submission to account for Part D.
\8\ Estimates reflect costs for SCHIP children under the State's Medicaid 1115.
\9\ States project covering a portion of their entire demonstration population with Medicaid funds.


[[Page 382]]

        Current Services Receipts, Outlays, and Budget Authority

   Receipts.--Table 25-7 shows baseline receipts by major source. Total 
receipts are projected to increase by $164 billion from 2007 to 2008 and 
by $634 billion from 2008 to 2012, largely due to assumed increases in 
incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation.
  Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $117 billion from 
2007 to 2008 under baseline assumptions. This growth of 9.9 percent is 
primarily the effect of increased collections resulting from rising 
personal incomes. Individual income taxes are projected to grow at an 
annual rate of 6.4 percent between 2008 and 2012.
  

                                    Table 25-7.  BASELINE RECEIPTS BY SOURCE
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Estimate
                                        2006   -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Actual      2007       2008       2009       2010       2011       2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes............      1,044      1,178      1,295      1,349      1,465      1,547      1,657
Corporation income taxes...........        354        342        319        327        334        350        377
Social insurance and retirement            838        873        926        972      1,027      1,084      1,137
 receipts..........................
  On-budget........................        229        239        252        261        274        288        301
  Off-budget.......................        608        634        674        711        753        796        835
Excise taxes.......................         74         58         69         72         73         78         81
Estate and gift taxes..............         28         25         26         27         22          2          1
Other..............................         70         73         80         83         87         91         95
 
Total..............................      2,407      2,550      2,714      2,831      3,008      3,151      3,348
  On-budget........................      1,799      1,916      2,040      2,119      2,254      2,356      2,513
  Off-budget.......................        608        634        674        711        753        796        835
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Corporation income taxes under current law are estimated to decline by 
$23 billion or 6.8 percent between 2007 and 2008, in large part due to 
economic factors and legislated tax changes. Corporation income taxes 
are projected to increase at an annual rate of 4.3 percent from 2008 to 
2012, reflecting higher corporate profits.
  Social insurance and retirement receipts are estimated to increase by 
$52 billion between 2007 and 2008, and by an additional $211 billion 
between 2008 and 2012. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total 
wages and salaries paid, and scheduled increases in the social security 
taxable earnings base from $97,500 in 2007 to $123,600 in 2012.
  Excise taxes are estimated to be unusually low in 2007 due to refunds 
of certain telephone excise taxes. They return to normal levels in 2008 
and increase by $13 billion from 2008 to 2012, in large part due to 
increased economic activity and the expiration of various excise tax 
credits. Estate and gift taxes remain relatively level until 2010 when 
the estate tax is repealed. Other baseline receipts (customs duties and 
miscellaneous receipts) are projected to increase by $22 billion from 
2007 to 2012.
   Outlays.--Current services outlays are estimated to grow from $2,735 
billion in 2007 to $2,752 billion in 2008, a 0.6 percent increase. This 
small increase is in part due to calendar quirks. When October 1 falls 
on a weekend, military pay and certain benefit payments are paid on the 
previous Friday, shifting them into the previous fiscal year. Between 
2007 and 2012, current services outlays are projected to increase at an 
average annual rate of 3.2 percent. October 1 falls on a weekend in both 
2007 and 2012.
  Even though most discretionary spending is assumed to grow with 
inflation, outlays for discretionary programs decline from $1,032 
billion in 2007 to $961 billion in 2008 because the baseline assumes no 
additional spending for the war beyond what is already enacted. Outlays 
increase each year thereafter, reflecting increases in resources to keep 
pace with inflation, reaching $1,028 billion in 2012. Entitlement and 
other mandatory programs are estimated to grow from $1,465 billion in 
2007 to $1,537 billion in 2008, and to $1,918 billion in 2012, due in 
large part to changes in the number of beneficiaries and to automatic 
cost-of-living adjustments and other adjustments for inflation. Social 
security outlays grow from $582 billion in 2007 to $762 billion in 2012, 
an average annual rate of 5.5 percent. Medicare and medicaid are 
projected to grow at annual average rates of 6.5 and 7.3 percent, 
respectively, outpacing inflation. Other areas of growth include federal 
employee retirement (average annual growth of 3.5 percent), unemployment 
compensation (5.6 percent) and veterans programs (6.6 percent). Net 
interest payments to the public total $238 billion in 2007 and $254 
billion in 2008 and remain nearly level through the projection period.
  Tables 25-9 and 25-10 show current services outlays by function and by 
agency, respectively. A more detailed presentation of outlays (by 
function, subfunction, category, and program) appears on the CD-ROM that 
accompanies this volume.


[[Page 383]]


   Budget authority.--Tables 25-11 and 25-12 show current services 
estimates of budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. A 
more detailed presentation of budget authority with program level 
estimates appears on the CD-ROM that accompanies this volume.

                                     

                                              Table 25-8.  CHANGE IN BASELINE OUTLAY ESTIMATES BY CATEGORY
                                                              (Dollar amounts In billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Change 2007 to 2008   Change 2007 to 2012
                                                                                                            --------------------------------------------
                                                                               2007       2008       2012                                       Annual
                                                                                                               Amount    Percent     Amount     average
                                                                                                                                                 rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
  Discretionary:
    DoD-Military..........................................................        511        444        486        -67     -13.1%        -25       -1.0%
    Homeland security.....................................................         35         36         38          *       0.9%          3        1.5%
    International affairs.................................................         36         34         33         -2      -6.2%         -3       -1.7%
    Other discretionary...................................................        486        482        504         -4      -0.9%         18        0.7%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, discretionary.................................................      1,032        961      1,028        -71      -6.8%         -4       -0.1%
 
  Mandatory:
    Farm programs.........................................................         14         14         15         -1      -3.8%          *        0.3%
    Medicaid..............................................................        192        204        273         12       6.3%         82        7.3%
    Other health care.....................................................         23         24         30          1       3.0%          7        5.2%
    Medicare..............................................................        367        391        503         23       6.3%        136        6.5%
    Federal employee retirement
      and disability......................................................        105        109        124          4       4.3%         20        3.5%
    Unemployment compensation.............................................         32         34         42          2       7.3%         10        5.6%
    Other income security programs........................................        174        182        193          8       4.8%         19        2.1%
    Social Security.......................................................        582        608        762         26       4.4%        180        5.5%
    Veterans programs.....................................................         39         45         53          6      15.9%         15        6.6%
    Other mandatory programs..............................................         20         13         15         -7     -33.8%         -5       -5.7%
    Undistributed offsetting receipts.....................................        -82        -86        -91         -4       5.0%        -10        2.3%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, mandatory.....................................................      1,465      1,537      1,918         72       4.9%        453        5.5%
  Net interest............................................................        238        254        255         16       6.7%         17        1.4%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays.............................................................      2,735      2,752      3,201         17       0.6%        466        3.2%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 384]]


                                                    Table 25-9.  CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
                                                                (in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                           Function                                2006    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual         2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
  Department of Defense--Military............................       499.3        512.4        446.1        457.6        466.0        477.2        488.5
  Other......................................................        22.5         22.7         23.2         23.6         23.5         23.4         23.8
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, National defense....................................       521.8        535.1        469.3        481.1        489.5        500.6        512.3
International affairs........................................        29.5         32.7         32.0         31.8         30.8         30.7         31.3
General science, space, and technology.......................        23.6         24.9         25.7         26.6         26.6         27.1         27.7
Energy.......................................................         0.8          1.8          1.5          1.7          1.9          2.1          2.1
Natural resources and environment............................        33.1         35.1         33.1         31.9         33.1         33.8         34.9
Agriculture..................................................        26.0         20.1         19.8         19.6         20.1         20.8         21.1
Commerce and housing credit..................................         6.2          0.2         -1.4          0.7         -0.4         -0.2          1.0
  On-Budget..................................................        (7.3)       (-2.4)        (0.9)       (-1.0)       (-1.7)       (-2.1)        (0.2)
  Off-Budget.................................................       (-1.1)        (2.6)       (-2.3)        (1.7)        (1.3)        (1.9)        (0.8)
Transportation...............................................        70.2         74.6         78.2         78.1         79.5         80.8         82.7
Community and regional development...........................        54.5         31.4         23.7         20.4         17.4         17.9         14.5
Education, training, employment, and social services.........       118.6         94.0         88.2         91.0         94.2         96.0         97.3
Health.......................................................       252.8        268.5        281.7        300.2        316.4        336.5        359.6
Medicare.....................................................       329.9        372.3        395.6        423.4        452.4        498.1        508.8
Income security..............................................       352.5        365.4        380.4        389.4        399.5        415.5        415.0
Social security..............................................       548.5        586.5        612.5        644.9        683.3        723.0        767.4
  On-Budget..................................................       (16.1)       (19.4)       (20.0)       (22.0)       (24.2)       (27.1)       (30.1)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (532.5)      (567.2)      (592.5)      (622.9)      (659.1)      (695.8)      (737.3)
Veterans benefits and services...............................        69.8         72.4         79.5         83.3         87.4         95.9         92.0
Administration of justice....................................        41.0         45.3         44.7         44.9         45.5         46.2         47.6
General government...........................................        18.2         18.8         19.8         19.6         20.1         21.0         22.1
Net interest.................................................       226.6        237.7        253.5        258.4        259.1        257.8        255.0
  On-Budget..................................................      (324.3)      (343.9)      (368.2)      (383.2)      (395.6)      (407.0)      (417.9)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (-97.7)     (-106.2)     (-114.6)     (-124.8)     (-136.5)     (-149.3)     (-162.9)
Allowances...................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
  Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............       -49.2        -48.8        -51.7        -55.0        -58.4        -62.1        -65.6
  Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)...........       -11.6        -12.3        -13.1        -13.8        -14.7        -15.8        -16.6
  Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf.........        -7.3         -6.8         -9.1         -9.9         -9.9         -9.6         -9.3
  Sale of major assets.......................................  ...........  ...........  ...........        -0.3   ...........  ...........  ...........
  Other undistributed offsetting receipts....................        -0.1        -13.8        -11.8         -2.2         -0.1         -0.1   ...........
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts...................       -68.2        -81.7        -85.8        -81.3        -83.1        -87.6        -91.5
    On-Budget................................................      (-56.6)      (-69.4)      (-72.6)      (-67.4)      (-68.4)      (-71.8)      (-74.9)
    Off-Budget...............................................      (-11.6)      (-12.3)      (-13.1)      (-13.8)      (-14.7)      (-15.8)      (-16.6)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,655.4      2,735.0      2,752.1      2,865.7      2,973.5      3,115.9      3,200.9
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  On-Budget..................................................    (2,233.4)    (2,283.7)    (2,289.6)    (2,379.8)    (2,464.3)    (2,583.2)    (2,642.2)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (422.1)      (451.3)      (462.5)      (485.9)      (509.2)      (532.7)      (558.7)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 385]]


                                                    Table 25-10.  CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY
                                                                (in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                            Agency                                 2006    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual         2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch...........................................         4.1          4.3          4.3          4.3          4.5          4.7          4.8
Judicial Branch..............................................         5.8          5.8          6.1          6.3          6.5          6.8          7.0
Agriculture..................................................        93.5         88.6         89.3         90.6         93.2         96.2         98.9
Commerce.....................................................         6.4          6.2          6.5          6.9          7.0          6.8          6.7
Defense--Military............................................       499.4        512.4        446.1        457.6        466.0        477.2        488.5
Education....................................................        93.4         68.0         62.8         65.1         67.5         68.8         69.5
Energy.......................................................        19.6         21.9         21.8         22.7         22.8         22.7         23.2
Health and Human Services....................................       614.3        671.2        705.4        748.6        794.8        860.3        892.7
Homeland Security............................................        69.1         49.1         40.4         38.8         34.6         35.0         35.9
Housing and Urban Development................................        42.4         42.8         44.2         43.5         42.5         43.5         40.5
Interior.....................................................         9.1         10.9         10.6         10.4         11.0         11.1         11.4
Justice......................................................        23.3         22.9         23.9         24.8         25.2         25.3         26.1
Labor........................................................        43.1         47.4         50.4         51.6         54.0         56.3         58.0
State........................................................        13.0         15.3         14.5         14.6         14.3         14.2         14.5
Transportation...............................................        60.1         63.8         66.1         65.4         66.3         67.2         68.6
Treasury.....................................................       464.7        489.0        519.5        539.5        557.7        575.1        588.7
Veterans Affairs.............................................        69.8         72.3         79.4         83.2         87.3         95.6         91.8
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works..............................         6.9          7.4          6.4          5.2          5.3          5.4          5.5
Other Defense Civil Programs.................................        44.4         47.6         49.1         50.4         51.4         52.5         52.8
Environmental Protection Agency..............................         8.3          8.0          7.9          8.2          8.4          8.5          8.7
Executive Office of the President............................         5.4          2.7          1.4          0.7          0.5          0.4          0.4
General Services Administration..............................           *          0.5          0.6         -0.2         -0.3         -0.4         -0.3
International Assistance Programs............................        13.9         16.5         16.3         16.6         16.3         16.3         16.6
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................        15.1         16.1         16.8         17.6         17.5         17.7         18.2
National Science Foundation..................................         5.5          5.9          5.8          5.9          6.0          6.2          6.3
Office of Personnel Management...............................        62.4         58.8         64.2         66.8         69.2         71.2         73.9
Small Business Administration................................         0.9          0.7          0.7          0.5          0.5          0.5          0.5
Social Security Administration...............................       585.7        622.9        654.4        689.0        729.7        775.8        813.7
  On-Budget..................................................       (53.3)       (55.7)       (61.9)       (66.1)       (70.6)       (80.0)       (76.4)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (532.5)      (567.2)      (592.5)      (622.9)      (659.1)      (695.8)      (737.3)
Other Independent Agencies...................................        12.9         18.7         15.3         17.6         17.3         18.3         20.1
  On-Budget..................................................       (14.0)       (16.0)       (17.6)       (15.9)       (16.0)       (16.4)       (19.2)
  Off-Budget.................................................       (-1.1)        (2.6)       (-2.3)        (1.7)        (1.3)        (1.9)        (0.8)
Allowances...................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................      -237.5       -263.0       -278.1       -286.5       -303.4       -323.3       -342.3
  On-Budget..................................................     (-128.2)     (-144.5)     (-150.4)     (-147.9)     (-152.2)     (-158.2)     (-162.8)
  Off-Budget.................................................     (-109.3)     (-118.5)     (-127.7)     (-138.6)     (-151.2)     (-165.1)     (-179.5)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,655.4      2,735.0      2,752.1      2,865.7      2,973.5      3,115.9      3,200.9
  On-Budget..................................................    (2,233.4)    (2,283.7)    (2,289.6)    (2,379.8)    (2,464.3)    (2,583.2)    (2,642.2)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (422.1)      (451.3)      (462.5)      (485.9)      (509.2)      (532.7)      (558.7)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.


[[Page 386]]


                                               Table 25-11.  CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION
                                                                (in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                           Function                                2006    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual         2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
  Department of Defense--Military............................       593.8        501.2        443.9        457.3        470.6        484.2        497.8
  Other......................................................        23.4         21.8         22.5         22.8         23.1         23.6         24.0
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, National defense....................................       617.2        523.0        466.4        480.0        493.8        507.7        521.8
International affairs........................................        32.8         27.1         29.5         31.1         31.9         32.7         33.6
General science, space, and technology.......................        25.1         24.9         25.5         26.2         26.8         27.4         28.0
Energy.......................................................         0.3          1.2          1.5          1.6          1.8          2.1          2.2
Natural resources and environment............................        38.1         29.7         31.0         31.3         32.7         33.7         34.9
Agriculture..................................................        25.6         19.1         20.0         19.7         20.5         20.9         21.5
Commerce and housing credit..................................        14.3         11.1         10.4          8.4          8.2          8.8          8.0
  On-Budget..................................................       (10.6)        (2.8)        (6.7)        (6.7)        (6.9)        (6.9)        (7.2)
  Off-Budget.................................................        (3.7)        (8.3)        (3.7)        (1.7)        (1.3)        (1.9)        (0.8)
Transportation...............................................        75.7         77.7         83.4         84.3         85.1         86.0         86.9
Community and regional development...........................        31.2         12.7         13.0         13.5         13.8         14.2         14.6
Education, training, employment, and social services.........       125.9         91.7         92.2         94.8         97.6         98.6        100.8
Health.......................................................       295.2        242.3        283.5        303.1        320.5        341.9        364.7
Medicare.....................................................       365.4        371.9        395.5        423.8        452.1        498.1        509.2
Income security..............................................       351.1        361.0        377.9        390.3        402.3        421.1        419.0
Social security..............................................       552.2        589.2        614.6        647.9        686.6        726.3        771.3
  On-Budget..................................................       (16.1)       (19.4)       (20.0)       (22.0)       (24.2)       (27.1)       (30.1)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (536.2)      (569.9)      (594.6)      (625.9)      (662.4)      (699.1)      (741.2)
Veterans benefits and services...............................        71.0         74.5         79.5         83.8         88.0         92.4         96.8
Administration of justice....................................        42.7         43.7         44.7         43.9         45.1         46.6         48.0
General government...........................................        19.7         18.6         19.0         19.8         20.4         21.2         22.1
Net interest.................................................       226.6        237.7        253.5        258.4        259.1        257.8        255.0
  On-Budget..................................................      (324.3)      (343.9)      (368.2)      (383.2)      (395.6)      (407.0)      (417.9)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (-97.7)     (-106.2)     (-114.6)     (-124.8)     (-136.5)     (-149.3)     (-162.9)
Allowances...................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
  Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............       -49.2        -48.8        -51.7        -55.0        -58.4        -62.1        -65.6
  Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)...........       -11.6        -12.3        -13.1        -13.8        -14.7        -15.8        -16.6
  Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf.........        -7.3         -6.8         -9.1         -9.9         -9.9         -9.6         -9.3
  Sale of major assets.......................................  ...........  ...........  ...........        -0.3   ...........  ...........  ...........
  Other undistributed offsetting receipts....................        -0.1        -13.8        -11.8         -2.2         -0.1         -0.1   ...........
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts...................       -68.2        -81.7        -85.8        -81.3        -83.1        -87.6        -91.5
    On-Budget................................................      (-56.6)      (-69.4)      (-72.6)      (-67.4)      (-68.4)      (-71.8)      (-74.9)
    Off-Budget...............................................      (-11.6)      (-12.3)      (-13.1)      (-13.8)      (-14.7)      (-15.8)      (-16.6)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,841.7      2,675.4      2,755.7      2,880.6      3,003.4      3,149.8      3,246.7
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  On-Budget..................................................    (2,411.1)    (2,215.8)    (2,285.1)    (2,391.7)    (2,490.9)    (2,613.8)    (2,684.1)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (430.5)      (459.6)      (470.6)      (488.9)      (512.5)      (536.0)      (562.6)
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          MEMORANDUM
 
Discretionary budget authority:
  National defense...........................................       556.5        519.9        462.9        476.6        490.4        504.3        518.3
  International..............................................        35.9         29.9         30.7         31.4         32.2         33.0         33.7
  Domestic...................................................       404.3        375.4        393.6        404.5        415.4        426.5        437.9
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total........................................................       996.7        925.2        887.2        912.6        938.0        963.8        990.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 387]]


                                                Table 25-12.  CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY
                                                                (in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                            Agency                                 2006    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual         2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch...........................................         4.2          4.2          4.3          4.5          4.6          4.8          5.0
Judicial Branch..............................................         6.0          5.9          6.1          6.3          6.6          6.8          7.0
Agriculture..................................................        97.3         87.4         91.8         93.1         96.1         99.1        102.0
Commerce.....................................................         6.6          7.9          6.1          6.4          6.5          6.7          6.9
Defense--Military............................................       593.8        501.2        443.9        457.3        470.6        484.2        497.8
Education....................................................       100.1         66.3         66.3         68.3         70.5         71.0         72.6
Energy.......................................................        21.1         20.5         21.2         21.7         22.2         22.8         23.3
Health and Human Services....................................       684.6        643.3        706.8        751.1        798.3        866.7        897.4
Homeland Security............................................        32.4         34.1         33.1         35.5         34.3         35.3         36.3
Housing and Urban Development................................        52.4         33.8         38.4         39.3         40.3         41.0         41.8
Interior.....................................................        10.0          9.7         10.1         10.4         11.0         11.2         11.5
Justice......................................................        23.1         22.6         24.6         24.1         24.7         25.5         26.4
Labor........................................................        45.9         46.7         49.5         51.4         53.7         55.7         57.6
State........................................................        15.4         13.0         13.3         13.6         14.0         14.3         14.7
Transportation...............................................        64.4         65.6         71.0         71.4         71.8         72.2         72.6
Treasury.....................................................       466.6        490.5        520.4        540.3        558.8        576.2        589.6
Veterans Affairs.............................................        71.0         74.4         79.5         83.7         87.9         92.1         96.6
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works..............................        11.9          4.7          4.8          5.0          5.2          5.4          5.6
Other Defense Civil Programs.................................        44.7         47.8         49.2         50.6         51.6         52.7         53.0
Environmental Protection Agency..............................         7.6          7.5          7.7          7.9          8.1          8.4          8.6
Executive Office of the President............................         0.3          0.4          0.3          0.4          0.4          0.4          0.4
General Services Administration..............................         0.7         -0.2         -0.2         -0.2         -0.2         -0.2         -0.2
International Assistance Programs............................        18.7         14.5         15.1         16.4         16.8         17.2         17.6
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................        16.6         16.2         16.6         17.0         17.5         17.9         18.3
National Science Foundation..................................         5.7          5.7          5.9          6.0          6.2          6.3          6.4
Office of Personnel Management...............................        66.8         62.2         66.9         69.5         72.0         75.5         77.0
Small Business Administration................................         1.8          0.4          0.5          0.5          0.5          0.5          0.5
Social Security Administration...............................       589.5        626.3        655.5        692.0        733.0        778.7        818.1
  On-Budget..................................................       (53.4)       (56.4)       (60.9)       (66.2)       (70.6)       (79.6)       (76.9)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (536.2)      (569.9)      (594.6)      (625.9)      (662.4)      (699.1)      (741.2)
Other Independent Agencies...................................        20.0         26.0         25.0         23.5         23.8         24.9         24.5
  On-Budget..................................................       (16.3)       (17.7)       (21.3)       (21.8)       (22.4)       (23.0)       (23.7)
  Off-Budget.................................................        (3.7)        (8.3)        (3.7)        (1.7)        (1.3)        (1.9)        (0.8)
Allowances...................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................      -237.5       -263.0       -278.1       -286.5       -303.4       -323.3       -342.3
  On-Budget..................................................     (-128.2)     (-144.5)     (-150.4)     (-147.9)     (-152.2)     (-158.2)     (-162.8)
  Off-Budget.................................................     (-109.3)     (-118.5)     (-127.7)     (-138.6)     (-151.2)     (-165.1)     (-179.5)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,841.7      2,675.4      2,755.7      2,880.6      3,003.4      3,149.8      3,246.7
  On-Budget..................................................    (2,411.1)    (2,215.8)    (2,285.1)    (2,391.7)    (2,490.9)    (2,613.8)    (2,684.1)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (430.5)      (459.6)      (470.6)      (488.9)      (512.5)      (536.0)      (562.6)
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