[Analytical Perspectives]
[Current Services Estimates]
[25. Current Services Estimates]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
[[Page 359]]
25. CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES
There has long been a desire to have a neutral benchmark against which
policy proposals can be measured. Since the early 1970s when the first
requirements for the calculation of a ``current services'' baseline were
enacted, a variety of concepts and measures have been employed. In
recent years, the current services baseline has been defined to be
identical to the baseline required by the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA).
However, that baseline has serious technical flaws, which compromise its
ability to serve as a neutral measure. This section provides detailed
estimates of a baseline that corrects these flaws. It also discusses
alternative formulations for the baseline.
Ideally, a current services baseline would provide a projection of
estimated receipts, outlays, deficits or surpluses, and budget authority
needed to reflect this year's enacted policies and programs for each
year in the future. Because such a concept would be nearly impossible to
apply across all segments of the government, the baseline has instead
become largely a mechanical construct.
Moreover, it is important to discuss what a baseline is not. The
baseline is not a prediction of the final outcome of the annual budget
process, nor is it a proposed budget. By itself, the current services
baseline commits no one to any particular policy. Instead, the
commitments or constraints reflected in the current services estimates
are based on the tax and spending policies contained in current law.
The current services baseline is used in a variety of ways: It can
warn of future problems, either for Government fiscal policy as a whole
or for individual tax and spending programs. It is also a ``policy-
neutral'' benchmark against which the President's Budget and other
budget proposals can be compared to measure the magnitude of the
proposed changes. The following table shows current services estimates
of receipts, outlays, and surpluses for 2005 through 2011. They are
based on the economic assumptions described later in this chapter. The
estimates are shown on a unified budget basis, i.e., the off-budget
receipts and outlays of the Social Security trust funds and the Postal
Service Fund are added to the on-budget receipts and outlays to
calculate the unified budget totals. The table also shows the current
services estimates by major component. The BEA baseline deficits are
shown as a memorandum in the table.
Table 25-1. BASELINE CATEGORY TOTALS
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........................... 2,154 2,301 2,444 2,597 2,729 2,901 3,064
Outlays:
Discretionary:
DoD-Military................... 473 480 440 438 445 456 472
Homeland security.............. 30 32 34 35 35 36 38
Other discretionary............ 465 486 488 484 493 498 507
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary.......... 968 998 962 957 973 990 1,017
Mandatory:
Social Security................ 519 550 581 612 645 683 723
Medicare....................... 294 338 390 405 429 457 500
Medicaid and SCHIP............. 187 198 205 219 234 251 270
Other mandatory................ 320 365 319 340 359 371 390
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory.............. 1,320 1,451 1,495 1,575 1,668 1,762 1,883
Net interest..................... 184 219 244 266 284 298 310
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays...................... 2,472 2,669 2,701 2,798 2,925 3,050 3,210
Unified deficit.................. -318 -367 -257 -201 -196 -149 -146
On-budget...................... -494 -549 -449 -416 -428 -402 -420
Off-budget..................... 175 182 192 216 233 252 274
Memorandum:
BEA baseline deficit............. -318 -367 -305 -266 -244 -230 -127
Do not extend emergencies...... ......... ......... 45 67 76 82 86
Correct growth rates for pay... ......... ......... 2 3 3 3 3
Remove special rule for
administrative expenses of
selected programs............ ......... ......... * * * * 1
Extend certain tax provisions.. ......... * -1 -8 -37 -14 -119
Related debt service........... ......... * 1 4 6 9 11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline deficit......... -318 -367 -257 -201 -196 -149 -146
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conceptual Basis for Estimates
Receipts and outlays are divided into two categories that are
important for calculating the current services estimates: those
controlled by authorizing legislation (direct spending and receipts) and
those controlled through the annual appropriations process
(discretionary spending). Different estimating rules apply to each
category. There are numerous alternative rules that could be used to
develop current services estimates for both categories. The next section
discusses some alternatives that might be considered.
Direct spending and receipts.--Direct spending includes the major
entitlement programs, such as social security, medicare, medicaid,
Federal employee retirement, unemployment compensation, food stamps and
other means-tested entitlements. It also includes such programs as
deposit insurance and farm price and income supports, where the
Government is legally obligated to make payments under certain
conditions. Receipts and direct spending are alike in that they involve
ongoing activities that generally operate under permanent authority
(they do not require annual authorization), and the underlying statutes
generally specify the tax rates or benefit levels that must be collected
or paid, and who must pay or who is eligible to receive benefits. The
current services baseline assumes that receipts and direct spending
programs continue in the future as specified by current law. The
budgetary impact of anticipated regulations and administrative actions
that are permissible under current law are also reflected in the
estimates. This year, because the major deficit reduction package in the
Deficit Reduction Act has passed both chambers in Congress with only a
small technical difference that is expected to be resolved shortly, the
impact of the Act is included here as current law.
If a baseline is intended to reflect current law, then the provisions
of law providing spending authority and the authority to collect taxes
or other receipts that expire under current law should be assumed to
expire. However, the current services baseline assumes extension of
several types of authority:
Expiring provisions affecting excise taxes dedicated to a
trust fund are assumed to be extended at current rates. During
the projection period of 2006 through 2011, taxes deposited in
the Airport and Airway trust fund, which expire on September
30, 2007, are the only taxes affected by this exception.
Direct spending programs that will expire under current law
are assumed to be extended if their 2006 outlays exceed $50
million. For example, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
and child care entitlement to States are scheduled to expire
at the end of 2010. The baseline estimates provided here
assume continuation of these programs in 2011. However,
programs enacted after the enactment of the Balanced Budget
Act of 1997 that are explicitly temporary in nature expire in
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the baseline even if their current year outlays exceed the $50
million threshold.
Certain provisions in the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts that were
clearly not intended to be temporary are assumed to continue
past their expiration date. These provisions include
reductions in individual income taxes on capital gains and
dividends, increased expensing for small businesses, and
reductions in income taxes and estate and gift taxes scheduled
to sunset on December 31, 2010. Unlike the two extensions
discussed above, the BEA baseline definitions, developed
before the enactment of the 2001 and 2003 tax acts, do not
provide for extension of these provisions.
Discretionary spending.--Discretionary programs differ in one
important aspect from direct spending programs--Congress provides
spending authority for almost all discretionary programs one year at a
time. The spending authority is normally provided in the form of annual
appropriations. Absent appropriations of additional funds in the future,
discretionary programs would cease to exist after existing balances were
spent. If the baseline was intended to reflect current law, then a
baseline would only reflect the expenditure of remaining balances from
appropriations laws. Instead the current services baseline provides a
mechanical definition for discretionary programs that is somewhat
arbitrary. The definition used here attempts to keep discretionary
spending level in real terms. For 2006, the current services estimates
for discretionary programs are equal to enacted 2006 appropriations. For
2007 through 2011, funding for most accounts is equal to this 2006 level
adjusted for inflation. The inflation rates used here are similar to
those required by the BEA but adjusted to remove the overcompensation
for federal pay inherent in the BEA definition. Unlike the BEA
requirements, these current services estimates assume that federal pay
raises are effective in January, as required under current law. At the
time the BEA was enacted, it ignored the nearly contemporaneous
enactment of the Federal Employees Compensation Act of 1991 that shifted
the effective date of federal employee pay raises from October to
January. Also, the estimates presented here exclude the special
adjustment for administrative expenses for certain benefit programs
required by the BEA. This provision is inconsistent with the baseline
rules for other accounts that fund administrative costs. In addition,
the baseline estimates presented here assume that emergency
appropriations enacted for 2006, including the response to Hurricane
Katrina, funding to address Pandemic Influenza, and funding for the
Global War on Terror, are one-time only events. The BEA requires that
the base
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line assume funding for emergencies repeatedly through the projection
period.
Alternative Formulations of Baseline
Throughout much of U.S. history, budget proposals were often compared
to either the President's request or the previous year's budget. In the
early 1970s, policymakers developed the concept of a baseline to provide
a more neutral benchmark for comparisons. While the Congressional Budget
Act of 1974 included a requirement that OMB and the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) provide estimates of a current services baseline, the
definition of the baseline was very general and specific guidance was
not provided.
Subsequent budget acts have specified in increasing detail the
requirements for constructing baselines. Current services estimates for
direct spending programs and receipts are generally estimated based on
laws currently in place and most major programs are assumed to continue
even past sunset dates set in law. In the case of receipts, the BEA
requires only the extension of trust fund excise taxes, but otherwise
bases the estimates on current law. For discretionary programs, these
acts instituted a precise definition of baseline with numerous rules for
its construction.
It is clear, however, that a number of baseline definitions could be
developed that differ for those presented in this chapter:
Extend provisions affecting parts of mandatory programs.
Currently, mandatory programs that have current year outlays
of over $50 million are generally assumed to continue.
However, provisions of law that affect parts of mandatory
programs, even those that have been consistently extended in
the past, are assumed to expire as scheduled.
Do not extend any authorizing laws that expire. If all
mandatory programs were assumed to expire as scheduled,
deficits for 2007 through 2011 would be $244 billion lower
than the current estimates. (See the section below on major
program assumptions for details on mandatory program
extensions assumed in the estimates.) If excise taxes were
allowed to expire, the deficit would be $54 billion higher
over the period 2007 through 2011. If certain provisions of
the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts were assumed to expire, the deficit
would be $188 billion lower over the period.
Straightline appropriations. If all discretionary budgetary
resources were to be the same in each year in the projection
period as provided for the current year, total outlays would
be $15 billion lower in 2007 and $350 billion lower over the
period 2007 through 2011.
Do not extend any appropriations. The current treatment of
expiring provisions is inconsistent with the treatment of
discretionary spending. All discretionary spending continues
whether there is authorization for the program or not and
whether funds have already been provided or not. In nearly all
cases, funds for discretionary programs have not been provided
in advance for years beyond the current year. If rules
consistent with the treatment of other expiring provisions
were applied to discretionary spending, no new budgetary
resources would be provided. Thus, under a strict ``current
law'' approach, the only discretionary outlays that would be
included in the baseline would be the lagged spending from the
current year budgetary resource. If this rule were followed,
outlays in 2007 would be reduced by $551 billion relative to
the current estimates. Clearly this would provide an
unrealistic estimate of future spending and the government's
future fiscal position.
Table 25-2 provides estimates for a variety of changes in baseline
definitions that could be considered.
Table 25-2. ALTERNATIVE BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
(in billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006-2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline deficit........... -367 -257 -201 -196 -149 -146 -948
Alternative assumptions (``-''
represents deficit increase) \1\:
Extend provisions affecting parts ......... -* -1 -1 -1 -2 -5
of mandatory programs \2\.......
Do not extend any authorizing
laws:
Mandatory spending............. ......... 1 43 54 60 85 244
Trust fund excise taxes........ ......... ......... -12 -13 -14 -16 -54
Certain provisions of the 2001 -* 1 8 38 16 125 188
and 2003 Tax Acts.............
Straightline appropriations...... ......... 15 39 67 97 130 350
Do not extend any appropriations. ......... 551 858 996 1,094 1,184 4,684
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Estimates include related debt service.
\2\ Estimates provided here are the totals for the illustrative provisions shown in Table 25-5. This is not a
complete listing of all provisions that expire
Economic Assumptions
The current services estimates are based on the same economic
assumptions as the President's Budget, which are based on enactment of
the President's Budget proposals. The economy and the budget interact.
Changes in economic conditions significantly alter the estimates of tax
receipts, unemployment benefits, entitlement payments that are
automatically adjusted for changes in cost-of-living (COLAs), income
support programs for low-income individuals, and interest on the Federal
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debt. In turn, Government tax and spending policies influence prices,
economic growth, consumption, savings, and investment. Because of these
interactions, it would be reasonable, from an economic perspective, to
assume different economic paths for the current services baseline and
the President's Budget. However, this would diminish the value of
current services estimates as a benchmark for measuring proposed policy
changes, because it would then be difficult to separate the effects of
proposed policy changes from the effects of different economic
assumptions. By using the same economic assumptions for current services
and the President's Budget, this potential source of confusion is
eliminated. The economic assumptions underlying both the budget and the
current service estimates are summarized in Table 25-3. The economic
outlook underlying these assumptions is discussed in greater detail in
Chapter 12 of this volume.
Table 25-3. SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
(Fiscal years; dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars................................. 13,030 13,761 14,521 15,296 16,102 16,955
Real, chained (2000) dollars.................... 11,418 11,800 12,187 12,573 12,963 13,364
Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars................................. 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3
Real, chained (2000) dollars.................... 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1
Inflation measures (percent change, year over
year):
GDP chained price index......................... 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
Consumer price index (all urban)................ 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Unemployment rate, civilian (percent)............... 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Interest rates (percent):
91-day Treasury bills............................. 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3
10-year Treasury notes............................ 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6
MEMORANDUM
Related program assumptions:
Automatic benefit increases (percent):
Social security and veterans pensions......... 4.1 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Federal employee retirement................... 4.1 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Food stamps................................... 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Insured unemployment rate....................... 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Major Programmatic Assumptions
A number of programmatic assumptions must be made in order to
calculate the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the
number of beneficiaries who will receive payments from the major benefit
programs and annual cost-of-living adjustments in the indexed programs.
Assumptions on baseline caseload projections for the major benefit
programs are shown in Table 25-4. Assumptions about various automatic
cost-of-living-adjustments are shown in Table 25-3.
It is also necessary to make assumptions about the continuation of
expiring programs and provisions. In the estimates provided here,
expiring excise taxes dedicated to a trust fund are extended at current
rates. Certain income tax provisions from the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts,
that were not designed to be temporary in nature, are assumed to be
permanent for purposes of calculating revenue estimates. In general,
mandatory programs with current year spending of at least $50 million
are also assumed to continue. All discretionary programs with enacted
non-emergency appropriations in the current year are assumed to
continue. However, specific provisions of law that affect mandatory
programs (but are not necessary for program operation) are allowed to
expire as scheduled. For example, under the Deficit Reduction Act,
medicaid transition assistance will expire at the end of December 2006.
The baseline does not assume additional spending under this authority
beyond that point. Table 25-5 provides a listing of mandatory programs
and taxes assumed to continue in the baseline after their expiration.
Many other important assumptions must be made in order to calculate
the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the timing and
substance of regulations that will be issued over the projection period,
the use of administrative discretion provided under current law, and
other assumptions about the way programs operate. Table 25-5 lists many
of these assumptions and their impact on the baseline estimates. It is
not intended to be an exhaustive listing; the variety and complexity of
Government programs are too great to provide a complete list. Instead,
some of the more important assumptions are shown.
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Table 25-4. BENEFICIARY PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR BENEFIT PROGRAMS
(Annual average, in thousands)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2005 -----------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farmer direct payments.................... 1,674 1,780 1,746 1,716 1,695 1,702 1,704
Federal family education loans............ 5,864 6,213 6,490 6,781 7,102 7,436 7,790
Federal direct student loans.............. 1,806 1,882 1,963 2,049 2,141 2,238 2,339
Medicaid/State Children's Health Insurance 53,400 56,200 56,800 57,400 57,900 58,300 58,700
Program..................................
Medicare-eligible military retiree health 1,841 1,872 1,902 1,935 1,966 1,991 2,019
benefits.................................
Medicare:
Hospital insurance...................... 41,874 42,489 43,201 44,027 44,927 45,889 46,973
Supplementary medical insurance......... 39,462 39,986 40,592 41,300 42,076 42,883 43,778
Railroad retirement....................... 595 585 574 564 556 549 543
Federal civil service retirement.......... 2,413 2,468 2,531 2,564 2,597 2,630 2,661
Military retirement....................... 2,087 2,111 2,135 2,154 2,169 2,178 2,182
Unemployment compensation................. 8,085 9,044 9,082 9,154 9,222 9,308 9,410
Food stamps............................... 25,681 26,946 25,868 25,390 24,773 24,539 24,451
Child nutrition........................... 32,343 33,158 33,880 34,546 35,139 35,670 36,165
Foster care and adoption assistance....... 597 623 651 682 713 746 780
Supplemental security income (SSI):
Aged.................................... 1,118 1,111 1,105 1,103 1,102 1,103 1,105
Blind/disabled.......................... 5,657 5,803 5,998 6,141 6,245 6,323 6,389
Subtotal, SSI......................... 6,775 6,914 7,103 7,244 7,347 7,426 7,494
Child care and development fund \1\....... 2,200 2,100 2,000 2,000 1,900 1,900 1,800
Social security (OASDI):
Old age and survivor insurance.......... 39,844 40,262 40,762 41,389 42,163 43,080 44,070
Disability insurance.................... 8,054 8,424 8,743 9,017 9,251 9,448 9,649
Veterans compensation:
Veterans................................ 2,601 2,714 2,867 2,989 3,099 3,217 3,333
Survivors (non-veterans)................ 326 340 349 358 367 377 387
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, veterans compensation....... 2,927 3,054 3,216 3,347 3,466 3,594 3,720
Veterans pensions:
Veterans................................ 338 331 325 319 314 308 303
Survivors (non-veterans)................ 211 203 195 187 179 172 165
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, veterans pensions......... 549 534 520 506 493 480 468
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes children served through the CCDF (including TANF transfers) and through funds spent directly on
child care in the Social Services Block Grant and TANF programs.
Table 25-5. IMPACT OF REGULATIONS, EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS, AND OTHER ASSUMPTIONS IN THE BASELINE
(in millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGULATIONS
Old age and survivors insurance (OASI) and
disabilty insurance (DI):
Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency......... 18 26 27 18 5 -14
Reduction of Title II benefits under family 17 18 19 20 21 23
maximum in cases of dual entitlement.......
Trial work period........................... 3 3 2 1 1 .........
Expedited reinstatment of disability NA NA NA NA NA NA
benefits...................................
Medicaid: \1\
Payment Reform.............................. ......... -384 -624 -900 -939 -965
Provider Tax Reform......................... ......... ......... -230 -460 -690 -690
Medicaid Services Reform.................... ......... -225 -364 -523 -564 -610
Pharmacy Pay and Chase Reform............... ......... -105 -95 -85 -75 -70
Clarifying Regulations...................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
School-based Services Administration Reform. ......... -615 -670 -725 -785 -850
Medicare, HI: \1\
Long-term care hospitals.................... ......... -280 -480 -550 -570 -600
Inpatient rehabiliation facilities.......... ......... -180 -210 -220 -230 -250
Medicare, SMI: \1\
Part B covered drugs, supplies, and -100 -260 -360 -360 -410 -410
wheelchairs................................
Supplemental security income (SSI):
Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency......... -12 -12 -6 -3 -7 -19
[[Page 364]]
Title XVI cross-program recovery............ -15 -15 -15 -15 -20 -20
Student earned income exclusion............. 4 4 4 5 5 5
Expedited reinstatment of disability NA NA NA NA NA NA
benefits...................................
EPA Pesticides tolerance fee.................. ......... ......... ......... -13 -13 -13
EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS
Provisions extended in the baseline (effect of
extension):
Spending:
Child care entitlement to States............ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 2,917
Child nutrition:
Summer food service program............... ......... ......... ......... ......... 360 380
State administrative expenses............. ......... ......... ......... ......... 191 200
CCC market access, bioenergy and commodity
programs:
Counter-cyclical payment program.......... ......... ......... ......... 1,489 2,193 1,847
Dairy price support program............... ......... ......... 67 171 204 208
Dairy export incentive program............ ......... ......... 40 45 48 49
Direct payment program.................... ......... ......... 1,142 5,257 5,257 5,257
Marketing assistance loan and loan ......... 73 310 1,616 1,407 1,154
deficiency payment program...............
Sugar nonrecourse loan program............ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Upland cotton foregiven interest.......... ......... ......... 25 ......... ......... .........
Market access program..................... ......... ......... 200 200 200 200
Export credit guarantee programs.......... ......... ......... 115 115 115 115
Food for progress......................... ......... ......... 154 154 154 154
Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust........... ......... ......... 140 140 140 140
Conservation reserve program................ ......... ......... 408 779 1,242 1,673
Farm security and rural investment.......... ......... ......... 1,915 1,959 2,020 2,174
Food stamps:
Benefit costs............................. ......... ......... 30,412 30,489 31,103 31,849
State administrative expenses............. ......... ......... 2,689 2,790 2,896 3,006
Employment and training................... ......... ......... 347 355 364 373
Other program costs....................... ......... ......... 60 61 63 64
Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico...... ......... ......... 1,594 1,632 1,671 1,711
Food donations on Indian reservations..... ......... ......... 77 80 85 87
The emergency food assistance program ......... ......... 140 140 140 140
commodities..............................
Promoting safe and stable families.......... ......... 345 345 345 345 345
Temporary assistance for needy families
(TANF) resources:
State family assistance grants (SFAG)..... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 16,489
SFAG to territories....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 78
Matching grants to territories............ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 6
Tribal work program....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 7
Health Marriage and Fatherhood............ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 150
Census survey of program dynamics......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 10
Trade adjustment assistance--training and ......... ......... 547 934 985 1,019
income support.............................
Trade adjustment assistance--farmers........ ......... ......... 90 90 90 90
Veterans compensation--annual cost of living ......... 590 1,353 2,185 3,090 4,076
adjustment.................................
Revenues:
Excise taxes dedicated to trust funds:
Airport and Airway trust fund taxes....... ......... ......... 11,396 12,071 12,784 13,542
Certain provisions for the 2001 tax cut and 83 -531 -7,736 -37,023 -13,596 -119,388
2003 jobs and growth tax cut (includes
outlay impact).............................
Provisions not extended in the baseline
(effect of extension):
Spending:
Medicare, SMI:
Medicare low income premium assistance \2\ ......... ......... 380 405 430 460
Medicaid:
Transition benefits \3\................... ......... 393 554 580 601 625
Promoting safe and stable families:
Court improvement grants.................. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 20
TANF:
Supplemental grants....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 319
Welfare research.......................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 15
Veterans programs:
Income verification match................. ......... ......... ......... -6 -11 -16
Contract disability medical exams......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 92 96
Native American veterans housing loans.... ......... ......... ......... -1 -1 -1
Hybrid adjustable rate mortgages.......... ......... ......... ......... 4 4 4
Mandatory appropriation for administration ......... ......... ......... 11 11 11
of income verification match.............
Loan guarantees for multifamily ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 3
transitional housing for homeless
veterans.................................
[[Page 365]]
OTHER IMPORTANT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS
Child support enforcement (CSE):
Alternative penalties for Family Support Act -224 -7 -7 -7 -7 .........
systems and Statewide Disbursement Unit
requirements...............................
Food stamps:
Tax offset, recoupment, and general claims -175 -174 -176 -176 -180 -184
collection.................................
Quality control liabilities................. -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
Allocation of administrative costs between -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197
public assistance programs.................
Medicare:
Physicians.................................. 58,739 60,984 59,103 59,356 58,650 57,635
Contracting Reform.......................... ......... ......... -70 -280 -550 -580
Medicaid: \4\
Financial management recoveries............. -480 -505 -545 -588 -634 -685
Vaccines for Children, total program costs.. 1,958 2,006 1,698 1,688 1,713 1,729
Institutional long term care................ 35,279 36,476 38,352 40,335 42,471 44,833
Home and community based institutional 21,334 23,183 25,731 28,495 31,471 34,837
alternatives...............................
Pharmaceuticals (FFS, net of rebates)....... 14,931 14,378 15,110 16,132 17,269 18,578
Managed care (including Medicaid MCOs, PHPs, 32,569 36,331 39,936 43,597 47,770 52,466
PCCM)......................................
State Children's Health Insurance Program 5,775 5,244 5,345 5,316 5,311 5,176
(Title XXI)..................................
Approved Demonstrations and Pilot Programs:
\5\
Medicare, HI:
Rural Hospice
Baseline estimate....................... * 1 1 1 1 .........
Demonstration estimate.................. * 1 1 1 1 .........
Mercy Medical SNF
Baseline estimate....................... 6 2 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 6 2 ......... ......... ......... .........
Premier--Hospital Quality Incentive
Baseline estimate....................... 3,265 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 3,299 12 ......... ......... ......... .........
Rural Community Hospital \6\
Baseline estimate....................... 66 47 49 51 54 .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 79 56 59 62 59 .........
New York Graduate Medical Education
Baseline estimate....................... 69 69 69 69 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 59 48 35 17 ......... .........
Utah Graduate Medical Education
Baseline estimate....................... 6 6 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 6 6 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare, SMI:
Chronic Care Improvement Program (Medicare
Health Support)
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 175 198 177 ......... ......... .........
Chiropractic
Baseline estimate....................... 20 10 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 30 14 ......... ......... ......... .........
Municipal Health
Baseline estimate....................... 15 4 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 29 8 ......... ......... ......... .........
Diabetes (Telemedicine)
Baseline estimate....................... 7 4 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 7 4 ......... ......... ......... .........
United Mine Workers Program--Prescription
Drug Benefits
Baseline estimate....................... 26 37 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 114 118 ......... ......... ......... .........
BIPA Disease Management
Baseline estimate....................... 582 318 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 582 318 ......... ......... ......... .........
Coordinated Care
Baseline estimate....................... 174 178 90 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 151 158 79 ......... ......... .........
Medicare Replacement Drug
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 149 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Disease Management for Chronically Ill
Dual Beneficiaries (Lifemasters)
Baseline estimate....................... 584 679 164 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 526 613 149 ......... ......... .........
[[Page 366]]
Medicare Lifestyle Modification Program
Baseline estimate....................... 2 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Oncology/quality of care
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 100 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Care Management for High-Cost
Beneficiaries
Baseline estimate....................... NA ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 61 95 82 13 ......... .........
Low Vision Rehabilitation
Baseline estimate....................... 1 2 2 2 2 1
Demonstration estimate.................. 1 4 4 4 4 2
Medicare: HI and SMI:
ESRD Disease Management
Baseline estimate....................... 150 240 278 287 75 .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 149 239 277 286 74 .........
Home Health Third Party Liability
Baseline estimate....................... 173 191 174 31 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 171 186 171 28 ......... .........
Homebound
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare+Choice Phase I
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 6 3 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare+Choice Phase II
Baseline estimate....................... 195 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 210 35 ......... ......... ......... .........
SHMO-ESRD
Baseline estimate....................... 4 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 4 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
S/HMO I--Medicare
Baseline estimate....................... 1,140 1,534 515 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1,368 1,741 584 ......... ......... .........
S/HMO II--Medicare
Baseline estimate....................... 507 629 202 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 608 711 228 ......... ......... .........
Physician Group Practice
Baseline estimate....................... 1,702 1,793 454 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1,618 1,666 459 77 ......... .........
United Mine Workers Program--Health
Benefits
Baseline estimate....................... 415 440 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 404 420 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicaid: \5\
Alabama Family Planning................... 31 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arizona AHCCCS............................ 3,300 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arkansas (ARKids B)....................... 81 91 102 ......... ......... .........
Arkansas Family Planning Services......... 61 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arkansas Independent Choices (Cash & 9 2 ......... ......... ......... .........
Counseling)..............................
Arkansas TEFRA............................ 30 32 8 ......... ......... .........
California Family Planning................ 612 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
California In-Home Supportive Services 280 325 378 357 ......... .........
Plus.....................................
California--MediCal Hospital/Unisured Care 601 766 766 766 702 .........
Colorado Consumer Directed Attendant 17 19 3 ......... ......... .........
Support..................................
Delaware--Diamond State Health Plan....... 504 129 ......... ......... ......... .........
District of Columbia Childless Adults 50- 5 3 ......... ......... ......... .........
64.......................................
District of Columbia HIV.................. 8 11 14 18 6 .........
Florida Consumer Directed Care Plus (Cash 57 61 26 ......... ......... .........
& Counseling)............................
Florida Family Planning................... 8 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Florida MEDS-AD Program................... 680 975 1,072 1,180 1,298 .........
Hawaii Health QUEST....................... 85 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Illinois Family Planning.................. 387 414 442 ......... ......... .........
IowaCare.................................. 102 109 117 125 134 .........
Kentucky Health Care Partnership Program.. 482 513 568 48 ......... .........
Maine HIV................................. 9 7 ......... ......... ......... .........
Maryland (Health Choice).................. 1,578 1,610 1,086 ......... ......... .........
Massachusetts MassHealth.................. 2,569 2,757 2,960 ......... ......... .........
[[Page 367]]
Minnesota (Prepaid Med. Assist. Project 156 186 148 ......... ......... .........
Plus)....................................
Minnesota Family Planning................. 217 248 ......... ......... ......... .........
Mississippi Family Planning............... 134 146 ......... ......... ......... .........
Mississippi--Healthier Mississippi........ 65 71 78 86 ......... .........
Missouri Managed Care Plus................ 204 86 ......... ......... ......... .........
Montana Basic Medicaid for Able-Bodied 32 35 39 13 ......... .........
Adults...................................
New Jersey Personal Preference (Cash & 4 5 3 ......... ......... .........
Counseling)..............................
New Mexico--Family Planning Expansion..... 11 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
New York (Partnership Plan)............... 5,252 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
North Carolina Family Planning............ 392 424 457 494 ......... .........
Oklahoma Family Planning.................. 153 159 166 ......... ......... .........
Oregon Family Planning.................... 77 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Oregon Independent Choices................ 3 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Rhode Island Rite Care (Medicaid)......... 179 192 169 ......... ......... .........
South Carolina Family Planning............ 26 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
TennCare II............................... 3,865 3,124 ......... ......... ......... .........
Utah (Primary Care Network)............... 97 79 ......... ......... ......... .........
Vermont Long Term Care Plan............... 116 129 143 159 176 .........
Vermont Global Commitment to Health....... 492 494 538 586 639 160
Virginia--Family Planning................. 171 176 ......... ......... ......... .........
Washington (Take Charge/Family Planning).. 170 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin Badger Care (Medicaid).......... 42 18 ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin Family Planning................. 20 23 ......... ......... ......... .........
Pharmacy plus (demonstration estimate):
Wisconsin Pharmacy Plus............... 126 150 ......... ......... ......... .........
Florida Pharmacy Plus................. 24 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Illinois Pharmacy Plus................ 26 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
South Carolina Pharmacy Plus.......... 11 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
State Children's Health Insurance Program
(Title XXI) (demonstration estimates):
Alaska.................................... 9 9 10 11 ......... .........
Maryland Health Choice \7\................ 139 150 ......... ......... ......... .........
Minnesota Care
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).. 53 39 41 39 ......... .........
Baseline estimate (medicaid funds).... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Missouri MC+c \7\......................... 108 56 ......... ......... ......... .........
New Jersey FamilyCare \8\................. 132 167 173 ......... ......... .........
New Mexico SCHIP \7\...................... 25 26 ......... ......... ......... .........
Rhode Island (SCHIP RiteCare) \8\......... 30 34 11 ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin (BadgerCare).................... 84 88 ......... ......... ......... .........
Health Insurance Flexibility and
Accountability (HIFA) (demonstration
estimate--SCHIP funds):
Arizona HIFA--amendment to AHCCCS......... 43 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Colorado HIFA............................. 11 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Idaho HIFA................................ 19 21 23 18 ......... .........
Illinois HIFA (KidCare Parent Coverage)
Demonstration estimate................ 133 159 ......... ......... ......... .........
Baseline estimate (medicaid funds).... 5 6 ......... ......... ......... .........
Maine HIFA (Maine Care for Childless
Adults)
Baseline estimate (medicaid funds).... 102 102 ......... ......... ......... .........
Michigan HIFA............................. 127 120 112 24 ......... .........
New Mexico HIFA........................... 18 21 24 27 ......... .........
Oklahoma Sooner Care Demo+HIFA
Baseline estimate (medicaid funds).... 906 230 ......... ......... ......... .........
Oregon HIFA (Oregon Health Plan 2)
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).. 15 16 ......... ......... ......... .........
Baseline estimate (medicaid funds).... 1,467 1,603 ......... ......... ......... .........
Virginia HIFA............................. 11 12 12 13 ......... .........
Joint Medicare and Medicaid: \9\
Minnesota-Dual Eligibles
Baseline estimate....................... 600 1,231 308 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 599 1,231 308 ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin-Dual Eligibles
Baseline estimate....................... 88 95 24 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate \10\............. 88 95 24 ......... ......... .........
Massachusetts--Dual Eligibles
Demonstration estimate................ 62 85 21 ......... ......... .........
Baseline estimate..................... 62 85 21 ......... ......... .........
[[Page 368]]
OASI, DI, SSI:
Performance of continuing disability reviews -95 -460 -1,010 -1,600 -2,195 -2,900
(baseline levels) (OASI, DI, SSI)..........
Collection of overpayments:
OASI...................................... -630 -678 -678 -678 -678 -678
DI........................................ -522 -581 -581 -581 -581 -581
SSI (federal)............................. -884 -960 -960 -960 -960 -960
Debts written off as uncollectable (no
effect on outlays):
OASI...................................... 126 135 135 135 135 135
DI........................................ 411 458 458 458 458 458
SSI (federal)............................. 353 383 383 383 383 383
OASDI:
Payments to states for vocational 77 80 87 95 102 110
rehabilitation...........................
DI:
Research and demonstration projects....... 38 59 54 27 ......... .........
SSI:
Payments from states for state -4,240 -4,560 -4,725 -4,917 -5,083 -5,219
supplemental benefits....................
Payments for state supplemental benefits.. 4,240 4,175 4,715 4,900 5,070 5,645
Fees for administration of State
supplement:
Treasury share........................ -138 -130 -144 -146 -148 -161
SSA share............................. -119 -122 -124 -127 -130 -132
Research and demonstration projects....... 37 27 27 28 28 29
Payments to states for vocational 51 53 56 59 63 67
rehabilitation.............................
Performance of non-disability -390 -1,180 -1,490 -1,570 -1,650 -1,730
redeterminations (excludes related
overpayment collections reported above)....
State grants and demonstrations--health care:
Ticket to work grant programs:
Infrastructure grant program.............. 17 17 20 20 32 35
Demonstration to maintain independence and 21 21 22 22 10 10
employment...............................
High risk pools:
Initial seed grants....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Operation of pools........................ 21 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Emergency health services for undocumented 150 175 200 175 175 125
aliens.....................................
Pilot program for national and state 8 8 7 ......... ......... .........
background checks..........................
State pharmaceutical assistance programs.... 32 50 30 ......... ......... .........
Health care infrastructure improvement 140 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
program....................................
TANF:
Work verification penalties................. ......... ......... ......... -7 -16 -28
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* = $500,000 or less.
NA = Not available.
\1\ Medicare and medicaid regulations reflect gross outlays.
\2\C urrent law extends program through September 30, 2007.
\3\ Deficit Reduction Act extends program through December 31, 2006.
\4\ Not shown on table are anticipated collections from various state liabilities under current law.
\5\ Baseline estimates reflect costs absent the demonstration; demonstration estimate reflects costs of the
demonstration. The differences represent the net impact of the demonstration.
\6\ Costs of this demonstration are offset annually by a reduction to inpatient hospital prospective payment
rates.
\7\ Estimates reflect costs for SCHIP children under the State's Medicaid 1115.
\8\ States project covering a portion or their entire demonstration population with medicaid funds.
\9\ Large enrollment increases due to passive enrollment in Medicare Advantage Special Needs Plan demonstration.
Enrollees would be in other Medicare Advantage plans in the absence of demonstrations.
\10\ Demonstration estimate includes Medicare and Medicaid Federal Share. Medicare share is 50% and 60%,
respectively for 2006 and 2007. Medicaid share is 38% and 46%.
Current Services Receipts, Outlays, and Budget Authority
Receipts.--Table 25-6 shows baseline receipts by major source. Total
receipts are projected to increase by $143 billion from 2006 to 2007 and
by $620 billion from 2007 to 2011, largely due to assumed increases in
incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation.
Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $108 billion from
2006 to 2007 under baseline assumptions. This growth of 10.6 percent is
primarily the effect of increased collections resulting from rising
personal incomes. Individual income taxes are projected to grow at an
annual rate of 7.3 percent between 2007 and 2011.
[[Page 369]]
Table 25-6. BASELINE RECEIPTS BY SOURCE
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2005 -----------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes............ 927 1,011 1,119 1,211 1,276 1,383 1,486
Corporation income taxes........... 278 279 265 273 284 292 302
Social insurance and retirement 794 841 884 931 979 1,036 1,095
receipts..........................
On-budget........................ 217 231 242 252 263 277 293
Off-budget....................... 577 610 642 679 716 758 802
Excise taxes....................... 73 74 75 76 78 79 83
Estate and gift taxes.............. 25 28 24 24 26 20 2
Other.............................. 56 69 77 82 86 92 97
Total.............................. 2,154 2,301 2,444 2,597 2,729 2,901 3,064
On-budget........................ 1,576 1,691 1,802 1,918 2,013 2,142 2,262
Off-budget....................... 577 610 642 679 716 758 802
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corporation income taxes under current law are estimated to decline by
$14 billion or 5.0 percent between 2006 and 2007, in large part due to
economic factors and legislated tax changes. Corporation income taxes
are projected to increase at an annual rate of 3.3 percent from 2007 to
2011, reflecting higher corporate profits.
Social insurance and retirement receipts are estimated to increase by
$43 billion between 2006 and 2007, and by an additional $211 billion
between 2007 and 2011. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total
wages and salaries paid, and scheduled increases in the social security
taxable earnings base from $94,200 in 2006 to $119,400 in 2011.
Excise taxes are estimated to increase by $10 billion from 2006 to
2011, in large part due to increased economic activity and the
expiration of various excise tax credits. Estate and gift taxes remain
relatively level until 2010 when the estate tax is repealed. Other
baseline receipts (customs duties and miscellaneous receipts) are
projected to increase by $28 billion from 2006 to 2011.
Outlays.--Current services outlays are estimated to grow from $2,669
billion in 2006 to $2,701 billion in 2007, a 1.2 percent increase.
Between 2006 and 2011, they are projected to increase at an average
annual rate of 3.8 percent. However, quirks in the calendar somewhat
distort this comparison. When October 1 falls on a weekend, military pay
and certain benefit payments are paid the previous Friday, shifting them
into the previous fiscal year. Outlays for 2006 are relatively low
because payments shifted from 2006 into 2005 while estimates for 2011
include $23 billion in payments that have shifted from 2012. After
adjustment for timing shifts, the average annual rate of growth between
2006 and 2011 is 3.6 percent.
Even though most discretionary spending is assumed to grow with
inflation, outlays for discretionary programs decline from $998 billion
in 2006 to $962 billion in 2007 and $957 billion in 2008 because the
baseline assumes no additional spending for the war or Katrina-related
disasters beyond what is already enacted. Outlays increase each year
thereafter, reflecting increases in resources to keep pace with
inflation, reaching $1,017 billion in 2011. Entitlement and other
mandatory programs are estimated to grow from $1,451 billion in 2006 to
$1,495 billion in 2007, and to $1,883 billion in 2011, due in large part
to changes in the number of beneficiaries and to automatic cost-of-
living adjustments and other adjustments for inflation. Social security
outlays grow from $550 billion in 2006 to $723 billion in 2011, an
average annual rate of 5.6 percent. Medicare and medicaid are projected
to grow at annual average rates of 8.1 (7.4 after adjustment for timing
shifts) and 6.6 percent, respectively, outpacing inflation. Other areas
of growth include federal employee retirement (average annual growth of
3.9 percent), unemployment compensation (5.6 percent) and veterans
programs (8.8 percent, but 7.4 percent after adjustment for timing
shifts).
Partially offsetting this growth, outlays for flood insurance and
higher education decline from high levels in 2006. Flood insurance is
estimated to spike to $18 billion in 2006 due to large claims related to
Katrina. For 2007 and beyond, the program returns to its normal level.
Likewise, higher education spending is projected to remain very high in
2006 as people take advantage of favorable conditions in which to
refinance loans. Projections for 2007 and beyond assume that this trend
will not continue as interest rates remain relatively level.
Undistributed offsetting receipts spike in 2007, reflecting expected
large one-time payments from auctions of electromagnetic spectrum, and
thus contribute to lower total outlays in that year.
Farm program spending is also projected to decline through the
projection period reflecting changes in market supply and demand. For
the first time, the Budget incorporates probabilistic price and
production variability into its baseline for Commodity Credit
Corporation programs for feed grains, wheat, rice, upland cotton,
soybeans, and dairy. Previously, farm program outlays projections were
based solely on a point estimate or deterministic approach. Because some
commodity support programs protect producer income only when prices fall
below targeted levels, deterministic projections, by their nature, tend
to underestimate outlays. Probabilistic outlay estimates account for the
price and corresponding outlay variability around the deter
[[Page 370]]
ministic estimate. The change in methodology has increased commodity
outlay projections by about $11 billion over the 2006 through 2011
period relative to deterministic projections.
Net interest payments to the public total $219 billion in 2006 and
$244 billion in 2007. They then continue to rise each year reaching $310
billion in 2011. This pattern reflects increased borrowing requirements
as well as changes in the mix of debt issuance and interest rates over
the period.
Tables 25-8 and 25-9 show current services outlays by function and by
agency, respectively. A more detailed presentation of outlays (by
function, subfunction, category, and program) appears on the CD-ROM that
accompanies this volume.
Budget authority.--Tables 25-10 and 25-11 show current services
estimates of budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. A
more detailed presentation of budget authority with program level
estimates appears on the CD-ROM that accompanies this volume.
Table 25-7. CHANGE IN BASELINE OUTLAY ESTIMATES BY CATEGORY
(Dollar amounts In billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change 2006 to 2007 Change 2001 to 2011
--------------------------------------------
2006 2007 2011 Average
Amount Percent Amount Annual
Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
Discretionary:
DoD-Military.......................................................... 480 440 472 -40 -8.3% -8 -0.3%
Homeland security..................................................... 32 34 38 2 6.2% 6 3.3%
Other discretionary................................................... 486 488 507 2 0.4% 21 0.9%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary................................................. 998 962 1,017 -36 -3.6% 18 0.4%
Mandatory:
Farm programs......................................................... 22 21 16 -1 -3.8% -6 -6.4%
Flood insurance....................................................... 18 * * -17 -99.1% -17 -66.1%
Higher education...................................................... 11 5 7 -6 -55.7% -4 -9.7%
Medicaid.............................................................. 192 199 265 7 3.7% 73 6.6%
Medicare.............................................................. 338 390 500 52 15.3% 162 8.1%
Federal employee retirement
and disability...................................................... 99 104 120 5 4.9% 21 3.9%
Unemployment compensation............................................. 36 38 47 2 5.2% 11 5.6%
Other income security programs........................................ 171 170 195 -1 -0.4% 24 2.7%
Social Security....................................................... 550 581 723 31 5.7% 173 5.6%
Veterans programs..................................................... 38 39 57 1 4.0% 20 8.8%
Other mandatory programs.............................................. 36 38 37 2 5.2% * 0.1%
Credit sudsidy reestimates............................................ 10 ......... ......... -10 NA -10 NA
Undistributed offsetting receipts..................................... -69 -91 -83 -22 31.3% -14 3.7%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory..................................................... 1,451 1,495 1,883 43 3.0% 431 5.3%
Net interest............................................................ 219 244 310 25 11.4% 91 7.2%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays............................................................. 2,669 2,701 3,210 32 1.2% 541 3.8%
Memorandum:
Timing shifts caused by calendar........................................ 4 3 -23 ......... ......... ......... ..........
Total outlays adjusted for timing shifts.................................. 2,672 2,704 3,187 32 1.2% 515 3.6%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 371]]
Table 25-8. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2005 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military............................ 474.2 482.0 442.2 439.7 447.2 458.4 474.1
Other...................................................... 21.2 23.9 23.9 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense.................................... 495.3 505.9 466.0 463.5 471.3 483.0 499.2
International affairs........................................ 34.6 34.8 32.5 32.3 32.0 32.2 32.8
General science, space, and technology....................... 23.7 24.0 25.0 25.4 26.3 26.6 27.2
Energy....................................................... 0.4 2.6 1.1 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.6
Natural resources and environment............................ 28.0 32.7 33.1 33.3 34.4 35.6 36.6
Agriculture.................................................. 26.6 26.8 27.0 25.1 23.7 22.8 22.6
Commerce and housing credit.................................. 7.6 7.9 9.6 6.9 5.8 3.9 3.5
On-Budget.................................................. (9.4) (9.4) (9.4) (10.3) (9.3) (8.1) (7.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (-1.8) (-1.5) (0.2) (-3.4) (-3.6) (-4.2) (-3.7)
Transportation............................................... 67.9 71.6 76.9 77.6 78.9 79.9 81.7
Community and regional development........................... 26.3 47.0 26.8 20.6 20.8 16.6 14.7
Education, training, employment, and social services......... 97.5 109.7 89.9 89.9 92.2 94.6 96.6
Health....................................................... 250.6 267.1 276.4 291.6 308.2 327.1 349.1
Medicare..................................................... 298.6 343.0 394.5 410.0 434.8 462.1 505.2
Income security.............................................. 345.8 360.6 367.0 382.4 391.7 402.5 418.9
Social security.............................................. 523.3 554.7 586.1 616.8 650.6 688.6 728.4
On-Budget.................................................. (16.5) (16.0) (18.3) (21.4) (22.1) (23.8) (27.4)
Off-Budget................................................. (506.8) (538.7) (567.7) (595.4) (628.5) (664.8) (700.9)
Veterans benefits and services............................... 70.2 70.4 72.6 79.2 83.3 87.3 95.2
Administration of justice.................................... 40.0 41.3 43.5 42.8 44.1 45.5 47.0
General government........................................... 17.0 19.0 20.1 20.1 20.4 21.0 21.9
Net interest................................................. 184.0 218.8 243.7 265.9 283.8 298.0 310.3
On-Budget.................................................. (275.8) (316.2) (349.5) (381.6) (411.6) (438.4) (464.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (-91.8) (-97.4) (-105.7) (-115.7) (-127.8) (-140.4) (-154.3)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............ -48.0 -48.5 -49.8 -51.9 -54.3 -56.8 -59.5
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)........... -10.9 -11.7 -12.2 -12.8 -13.5 -14.2 -15.0
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf......... -6.1 -9.1 -9.5 -9.2 -9.1 -8.8 -8.8
Sale of major assets....................................... ........... ........... ........... -0.3 ........... ........... ...........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts.................... -0.2 -0.1 -19.7 -13.3 -2.9 -0.1 -0.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts................... -65.2 -69.4 -91.2 -87.6 -79.7 -79.9 -83.4
On-Budget................................................ (-54.3) (-57.8) (-79.0) (-74.8) (-66.2) (-65.7) (-68.4)
Off-Budget............................................... (-10.9) (-11.7) (-12.2) (-12.8) (-13.5) (-14.2) (-15.0)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,472.2 2,668.5 2,700.7 2,798.0 2,924.7 3,049.8 3,209.8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Budget.................................................. (2,070.0) (2,240.5) (2,250.6) (2,334.6) (2,441.1) (2,543.8) (2,682.0)
Off-Budget................................................. (402.2) (428.1) (450.1) (463.5) (483.7) (506.0) (527.8)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 372]]
Table 25-9. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2005 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch........................................... 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9
Judicial Branch.............................................. 5.6 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0
Agriculture.................................................. 85.3 95.7 95.0 94.6 94.3 95.2 97.3
Commerce..................................................... 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.5 8.1 7.6 7.5
Defense--Military............................................ 474.4 482.0 442.2 439.7 447.2 458.4 474.1
Education.................................................... 72.9 84.0 65.4 66.0 67.7 69.6 71.1
Energy....................................................... 21.3 21.7 21.8 22.5 22.8 23.5 24.0
Health and Human Services.................................... 581.5 641.5 701.0 730.1 770.2 816.3 880.7
Homeland Security............................................ 39.3 61.7 42.5 37.3 38.2 34.5 33.9
Housing and Urban Development................................ 42.5 46.8 43.7 43.4 43.0 43.0 43.4
Interior..................................................... 9.1 9.1 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.6
Justice...................................................... 22.7 22.3 25.3 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.2
Labor........................................................ 47.0 51.4 51.6 53.5 56.1 59.0 61.9
State........................................................ 12.8 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.1
Transportation............................................... 56.9 61.3 65.5 65.7 66.5 67.2 68.4
Treasury..................................................... 408.7 450.8 492.5 531.1 566.1 599.1 631.5
Veterans Affairs............................................. 70.0 70.4 72.5 79.0 83.0 87.1 95.0
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works.............................. 4.8 7.4 6.3 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3
Other Defense Civil Programs................................. 43.5 45.7 47.2 48.6 49.6 50.2 50.5
Environmental Protection Agency.............................. 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.8
Executive Office of the President............................ 7.7 7.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4
General Services Administration.............................. 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
International Assistance Programs............................ 15.0 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.6
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................ 15.6 15.6 16.4 16.9 17.6 17.7 18.2
National Science Foundation.................................. 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2
Office of Personnel Management............................... 59.5 63.5 67.3 70.7 73.7 76.5 78.8
Small Business Administration................................ 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Social Security Administration............................... 561.3 592.4 622.6 658.9 694.4 734.0 779.6
On-Budget.................................................. (54.5) (53.7) (54.9) (63.4) (66.0) (69.2) (78.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (506.8) (538.7) (567.7) (595.4) (628.5) (664.8) (700.9)
Other Independent Agencies................................... 14.8 14.4 18.7 16.3 16.5 15.5 16.1
On-Budget.................................................. (16.6) (15.9) (18.4) (19.7) (20.1) (19.7) (19.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (-1.8) (-1.5) (0.2) (-3.4) (-3.6) (-4.2) (-3.7)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................ -226.2 -238.6 -272.3 -282.3 -290.7 -307.0 -327.2
On-Budget.................................................. (-123.4) (-129.5) (-154.4) (-153.8) (-149.4) (-152.4) (-157.9)
Off-Budget................................................. (-102.8) (-109.1) (-117.9) (-128.5) (-141.2) (-154.6) (-169.4)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,472.2 2,668.5 2,700.7 2,798.0 2,924.7 3,049.8 3,209.8
On-Budget.................................................. (2,070.0) (2,240.5) (2,250.6) (2,334.6) (2,441.1) (2,543.8) (2,682.0)
Off-Budget................................................. (402.2) (428.1) (450.1) (463.5) (483.7) (506.0) (527.8)
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[[Page 373]]
Table 25-10. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2005 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military............................ 483.9 468.2 424.5 437.0 449.8 463.1 476.8
Other...................................................... 21.9 23.7 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.8 25.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense.................................... 505.8 491.8 447.9 460.9 474.2 487.9 502.1
International affairs........................................ 32.9 27.7 30.7 32.5 33.3 34.2 35.1
General science, space, and technology....................... 24.4 24.9 25.2 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.6
Energy....................................................... 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.6
Natural resources and environment............................ 33.0 33.0 32.3 32.8 34.3 35.7 36.8
Agriculture.................................................. 29.2 24.7 28.6 25.3 23.6 23.0 22.7
Commerce and housing credit.................................. 14.2 12.1 17.2 17.1 13.2 13.2 13.7
On-Budget.................................................. (13.2) (10.0) (13.4) (16.2) (12.4) (12.8) (13.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (1.0) (2.0) (3.9) (0.9) (0.8) (0.4) (0.5)
Transportation............................................... 76.2 75.4 81.0 82.7 75.7 85.0 86.0
Community and regional development........................... 84.5 16.7 11.5 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8
Education, training, employment, and social services......... 99.9 114.2 91.7 94.1 96.6 99.3 100.7
Health....................................................... 251.8 292.8 276.1 293.2 313.1 331.0 353.4
Medicare..................................................... 303.4 360.5 394.2 409.9 435.1 461.8 505.2
Income security.............................................. 349.0 352.3 368.1 382.3 393.5 405.2 423.3
Social security.............................................. 531.7 557.9 588.6 619.4 653.5 691.9 731.8
On-Budget.................................................. (16.5) (16.0) (18.3) (21.4) (22.1) (23.8) (27.4)
Off-Budget................................................. (515.1) (541.8) (570.3) (598.0) (631.4) (668.1) (704.3)
Veterans benefits and services............................... 69.2 70.4 76.2 80.0 84.1 88.1 92.1
Administration of justice.................................... 40.6 40.8 43.5 43.1 44.5 46.0 47.5
General government........................................... 16.9 19.8 20.4 20.7 21.4 21.9 22.7
Net interest................................................. 184.0 218.8 243.7 265.9 283.8 298.0 310.3
On-Budget.................................................. (275.8) (316.2) (349.5) (381.6) (411.6) (438.4) (464.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (-91.8) (-97.4) (-105.7) (-115.7) (-127.8) (-140.4) (-154.3)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............ -48.0 -48.5 -49.8 -51.9 -54.3 -56.8 -59.5
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)........... -10.9 -11.7 -12.2 -12.8 -13.5 -14.2 -15.0
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf......... -6.1 -9.1 -9.5 -9.2 -9.1 -8.8 -8.8
Sale of major assets....................................... ........... ........... ........... -0.3 ........... ........... ...........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts.................... -0.2 -0.1 -19.7 -13.3 -2.9 -0.1 -0.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts................... -65.2 -69.4 -91.2 -87.6 -79.7 -79.9 -83.4
On-Budget................................................ (-54.3) (-57.8) (-79.0) (-74.8) (-66.2) (-65.7) (-68.4)
Off-Budget............................................... (-10.9) (-11.7) (-12.2) (-12.8) (-13.5) (-14.2) (-15.0)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,582.9 2,665.8 2,687.1 2,812.7 2,941.0 3,084.4 3,243.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Budget.................................................. (2,169.5) (2,231.1) (2,230.9) (2,342.2) (2,450.1) (2,570.5) (2,707.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (413.4) (434.7) (456.2) (470.4) (490.9) (513.9) (535.5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMORANDUM
Discretionary budget authority:
National defense........................................... 499.8 488.3 444.6 457.8 471.1 484.8 499.0
International.............................................. 34.7 31.5 32.1 32.9 33.7 34.5 35.3
Domestic................................................... 450.4 382.0 391.8 403.3 414.3 425.6 437.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total........................................................ 984.9 901.8 868.6 894.0 919.1 944.9 971.4
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[[Page 374]]
Table 25-11. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2005 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch........................................... 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1
Judicial Branch.............................................. 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1
Agriculture.................................................. 95.0 96.3 99.6 96.9 96.6 98.1 100.3
Commerce..................................................... 6.5 6.4 6.8 9.2 7.2 7.4 7.7
Defense--Military............................................ 483.9 468.2 424.5 437.0 449.8 463.1 476.8
Education.................................................... 74.6 88.6 66.4 68.3 70.3 72.4 73.2
Energy....................................................... 21.2 21.0 21.2 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.1
Health and Human Services.................................... 591.5 676.9 700.3 731.5 773.2 819.4 886.5
Homeland Security............................................ 101.3 22.7 29.8 31.0 34.0 32.6 33.5
Housing and Urban Development................................ 35.1 47.8 37.7 38.7 39.6 40.6 41.6
Interior..................................................... 10.4 9.3 10.2 10.4 11.0 11.5 11.6
Justice...................................................... 22.1 22.6 24.8 23.9 24.7 25.6 26.4
Labor........................................................ 47.2 51.3 52.6 55.1 57.5 60.1 62.7
State........................................................ 14.7 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4
Transportation............................................... 64.9 64.6 69.3 70.6 63.2 72.1 72.6
Treasury..................................................... 410.2 452.5 494.1 532.6 567.9 600.9 633.2
Veterans Affairs............................................. 69.1 70.4 76.0 79.8 83.8 87.9 91.9
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works.............................. 5.5 8.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3
Other Defense Civil Programs................................. 43.7 45.9 47.4 48.7 49.8 50.4 50.7
Environmental Protection Agency.............................. 8.0 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7
Executive Office of the President............................ 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
General Services Administration.............................. 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
International Assistance Programs............................ 18.2 15.6 16.1 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.8
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................ 16.2 16.6 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.4
National Science Foundation.................................. 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.4
Office of Personnel Management............................... 63.1 66.8 70.3 73.5 76.5 79.5 82.4
Small Business Administration................................ 3.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Social Security Administration............................... 569.9 594.9 625.4 661.5 697.4 737.4 782.6
On-Budget.................................................. (54.8) (53.0) (55.2) (63.4) (66.0) (69.2) (78.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (515.1) (541.8) (570.3) (598.0) (631.4) (668.1) (704.3)
Other Independent Agencies................................... 17.5 19.3 24.8 22.8 23.2 23.4 24.8
On-Budget.................................................. (16.5) (17.3) (21.0) (21.9) (22.4) (23.0) (24.3)
Off-Budget................................................. (1.0) (2.0) (3.9) (0.9) (0.8) (0.4) (0.5)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................ -226.2 -238.6 -272.3 -282.3 -290.7 -307.0 -327.2
On-Budget.................................................. (-123.4) (-129.5) (-154.4) (-153.8) (-149.4) (-152.4) (-157.9)
Off-Budget................................................. (-102.8) (-109.1) (-117.9) (-128.5) (-141.2) (-154.6) (-169.4)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,582.9 2,665.8 2,687.1 2,812.7 2,941.0 3,084.4 3,243.0
On-Budget.................................................. (2,169.5) (2,231.1) (2,230.9) (2,342.2) (2,450.1) (2,570.5) (2,707.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (413.4) (434.7) (456.2) (470.4) (490.9) (513.9) (535.5)
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