[Analytical Perspectives]
[Federal Borrowing and Debt]
[16. Federal Borrowing and Debt]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]


  Debt is the largest legally binding obligation of the Federal 
Government. At the end of 2004, the Government owed $4,296 billion of 
principal to the people who had loaned it the money to pay for past 
deficits. During that year, the Government paid the public around $168 
billion of interest on this debt.

                                     

                             Table 16-1.  TRENDS IN FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC
                                          (Dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 Debt held by the       Debt held by the    Interest on the debt
                                                      public:          public as a percent   held by the public
                                             ------------------------          of:          as a percent of: \3\
                 Fiscal Year                                         -------------------------------------------
                                               Current     FY 2000                 Credit
                                               Dollars   dollars \1\     GDP       market     Total       GDP
                                                                                  debt \2\   outlays
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1946........................................      241.9     1,821.2       108.6        N/A        7.4        1.8
1950........................................      219.0     1,339.6        80.2       53.3       11.4        1.8
1955........................................      226.6     1,217.1        57.4       43.2        7.6        1.3
1960........................................      236.8     1,127.8        45.7       33.8        8.5        1.5
 
1965........................................      260.8     1,161.6        38.0       26.9        8.1        1.4
1970........................................      283.2     1,047.7        28.0       20.8        7.9        1.5
1975........................................      394.7     1,074.6        25.3       18.4        7.5        1.6
1980........................................      711.9     1,340.7        26.1       18.5       10.6        2.3
 
1985........................................    1,507.3     2,164.7        36.4       22.3       16.2        3.7
1986........................................    1,740.6     2,443.0        39.4       22.6       16.1        3.6
1987........................................    1,889.8     2,584.8        40.7       22.3       16.0        3.5
1988........................................    2,051.6     2,720.6        41.0       22.2       16.2        3.4
1989........................................    2,190.7     2,796.4        40.6       22.0       16.5        3.5
 
1990........................................    2,411.6     2,968.1        42.0       22.6       16.2        3.5
1991........................................    2,689.0     3,189.8        45.3       24.1       16.2        3.6
1992........................................    2,999.7     3,471.1        48.1       25.7       15.5        3.4
1993........................................    3,248.4     3,675.5        49.4       26.6       14.9        3.2
1994........................................    3,433.1     3,802.7        49.3       26.8       14.4        3.0
 
1995........................................    3,604.4     3,910.2        49.2       26.7       15.8        3.3
1996........................................    3,734.1     3,974.5        48.5       26.3       15.8        3.2
1997........................................    3,772.3     3,946.4        46.1       25.3       15.7        3.1
1998........................................    3,721.1     3,846.1        43.1       23.5       15.1        2.9
1999........................................    3,632.4     3,705.7        39.8       21.4       13.8        2.6
 
2000........................................    3,409.8     3,409.8        35.1       19.1       13.0        2.4
2001........................................    3,319.6     3,243.1        33.0       17.6       11.6        2.1
2002........................................    3,540.4     3,395.8        34.1       17.6        8.9        1.7
2003........................................    3,913.4     3,687.1        36.1       18.0        7.5        1.5
2004........................................    4,295.5     3,968.2        37.2       18.3        7.3        1.5
 
2005 estimate...............................    4,721.2     4,274.5        38.6        N/A        7.4        1.5
2006 estimate...............................    5,120.8     4,547.4        39.7        N/A        8.6        1.7
2007 estimate...............................    5,454.0     4,745.5        40.1        N/A        9.7        1.9
2008 estimate...............................    5,726.7     4,880.0        39.9        N/A       10.4        2.0
2009 estimate...............................    5,981.8     4,992.7        39.6        N/A       10.8        2.1
 
2010 estimate...............................    6,211.5     5,078.1        39.1        N/A       11.0        2.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A = Not available.
\1\ Debt in current dollars deflated by the GDP chain-type price index with fiscal year 2000 equal to 100.
\2\ Total credit market debt owed by domestic nonfinancial sectors, modified in some years to be consistent with
  budget concepts for the measurement of Federal debt. Financial sectors are omitted to avoid double counting,
  since financial intermediaries borrow in the credit market primarily in order to finance lending in the credit
  market. Source: Federal Reserve Board flow of funds accounts. Projections are not available.
\3\ Interest on debt held by the public is estimated as the interest on Treasury debt securities less the
  ``interest received by trust funds'' (subfunction 901 less subfunctions 902 and 903). The estimate of interest
  on debt held by the public does not include the comparatively small amount of interest paid on agency debt or
  the offsets for interest on Treasury debt received by other Government accounts (revolving funds and special
  funds).


[[Page 246]]

  The budget shifted from surplus to deficit in 2002, and the deficit 
then grew sharply in 2003 and edged up a little more in 2004. The shift 
from a surplus to a large deficit in these years was primarily because 
of several shocks to the economy--which included the bursting of the 
stock market bubble, the terrorist attack of September 11th, and the 
recession--together with the additional spending in response to 
terrorism and several measures of tax relief that were designed to 
stimulate the economy in the near-term and increase long-term growth. As 
a result, the deficit is estimated to rise slightly more in 2005 before 
declining. Debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP has risen 
since 2001 and is estimated to peak at 40.1 percent in 2007 before 
starting to decline gradually.

                    Trends in Debt Since World War II

  Table 16-1 depicts trends in Federal debt held by the public from 
World War II to the present and estimates from the present through 2010. 
(It is supplemented for earlier years by tables 7.1-7.3 in Historical 
Tables, which is published as a separate volume of the budget.) As this 
table shows, Federal debt peaked at 108.6 percent of GDP in 1946, just 
after the end of the war. From then until the 1970s, Federal debt grew 
gradually, but, due to inflation, it declined in real terms. Because of 
an expanding economy as well as inflation, Federal debt as a percentage 
of GDP decreased almost every year. With households borrowing large 
amounts to buy homes and consumer durables, and with businesses 
borrowing large amounts to buy plant and equipment, Federal debt also 
decreased almost every year as a percentage of the total credit market 
debt outstanding. The cumulative effect was impressive. From 1950 to 
1975, debt held by the public declined from 80.2 percent of GDP to 25.3 
percent, and from 53.3 percent of credit market debt to 18.4 percent. 
Despite rising interest rates, interest outlays became a smaller share 
of the budget and were roughly stable as a percentage of GDP.
  During the 1970s, large budget deficits emerged as spending surged, 
but at a slower pace than earlier decades, and as the economy was 
disrupted by oil shocks and inflation. The nominal amount of Federal 
debt more than doubled, and Federal debt relative to GDP and credit 
market debt stopped declining after the middle of the decade. The growth 
of Federal debt accelerated at the beginning of the 1980s, due in large 
part to a deep recession, and the ratio of Federal debt to GDP grew very 
sharply. The ratio of Federal debt to credit market debt also rose, 
though to a much lesser extent. Interest outlays on debt held by the 
public, calculated as a percentage of either total Federal outlays or 
GDP, increased as well.
  The growth of Federal debt held by the public was decelerating by the 
mid-1990s, however, and the debt declined markedly relative to both GDP 
and total credit market debt. It fell steadily from 49.4 percent of GDP 
in 1993 to 33.0 percent in 2001; and it fell more unevenly from 26.8 
percent of total credit market debt in 1994 to 17.6 percent in 2001 and 
2002. Interest on this debt, relative to total outlays and GDP, declined 
as well. Interest as a share of outlays peaked at 16.5 percent in 1989 
and then fell to 11.6 percent by 2001; interest as a percentage of GDP 
fell in a similar proportion.
  The downward trend in debt relative to GDP ceased as economic 
conditions changed and the terrorist attacks occurred. The decline in 
the stock market, the recession, and the initially slow recovery all 
reduced tax receipts; tax relief had the same effect; and spending 
increased for war and homeland security. As a result of the ensuing 
deficits, table 16-1 shows a rise in debt held by the public throughout 
the projection period. The increase in debt, however, is estimated to 
slow down. Debt continues to rise by small amounts as a percentage of 
GDP in 2004 and 2005 and then is essentially stable, declining a little 
in the later years of the decade.

                               Table 16-2.  Federal Government Financing and Debt
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Estimate
                                       Actual  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009       2010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financing:
  Unified budget deficit (-).......     -412.1     -426.6     -390.1     -312.1     -250.8     -232.9     -207.3
 
  Financing other than the change
   in debt held by the public:
    Net purchases (-) of non-
     Federal securities by
      the National Railroad               -2.5       -0.9        0.7        0.5        0.3        0.5        0.5
       Retirement Investment Trust.
    Changes in: \1\
      Treasury operating cash             -1.4        1.3  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
       balance.....................
      Compensating balances \2\....       22.2  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Checks outstanding, etc. \3\.        6.5  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Seigniorage on coins...........        0.7        0.6        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7
    Less: Net financing
     disbursements:
      Direct loan financing               -4.9       -9.1      -12.8      -20.0      -20.7      -20.1      -20.7
       accounts....................
      Guaranteed loan financing            9.4        8.9        1.8       -2.3       -2.1       -3.2       -2.9
       accounts....................
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Total, financing other than       30.0        0.9       -9.5      -21.1      -21.8      -22.2      -22.5
         the change in debt held by
         the public
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Total, requirement to       -382.1     -425.7     -399.6     -333.2     -272.6     -255.1     -229.8
             borrow from the public
 
  Change in debt held by the public      382.1      425.7      399.6      333.2      272.6      255.1      229.8
 
Changes in Debt Subject to
 Limitation:
  Change in debt held by the public      382.1      425.7      399.6      333.2      272.6      255.1      229.8
  Change in debt held by Government      212.6      251.0      276.6      309.2      325.9      339.8      364.0
   accounts........................
  Change in other factors..........        1.1      -13.4        0.2        0.5        0.7        2.8        2.4
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total, change in debt subject        595.8      663.3      676.4      643.0      599.2      597.7      596.1
     to statutory limitation.......
 
Debt Subject to Statutory
 Limitation, End of Year:
  Debt issued by Treasury..........    7,327.8    8,005.1    8,681.5    9,324.5    9,923.7   10,519.4   11,113.8
  Less: Treasury debt not subject         -0.5      -14.5      -14.5      -14.5      -14.5      -12.4      -10.8
   to limitation (-) \4\...........
  Agency debt subject to limitation        0.2        0.2        0.2        0.2        0.2        0.2        0.2
  Adjustment for discount and              5.8        5.8        5.8        5.8        5.8        5.8        5.8
   premium \5\.....................
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, debt subject to           7,333.4    7,996.6    8,673.0    9,316.0    9,915.3   10,512.9   11,109.1
       statutory limitation \6\....
 
Debt Outstanding, End of Year:
  Gross Federal debt: \7\
    Debt issued by Treasury........    7,327.8    8,005.1    8,681.5    9,324.5    9,923.7   10,519.4   11,113.8
    Debt issued by other agencies..       26.8       26.3       26.1       25.6       24.9       24.2       23.5
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, gross Federal debt....    7,354.7    8,031.4    8,707.6    9,350.1    9,948.6   10,543.5   11,137.3
  Held by:
    Debt held by Government            3,059.1    3,310.2    3,586.8    3,896.1    4,222.0    4,561.8    4,925.8
     accounts......................
    Debt held by the public \8\....    4,295.5    4,721.2    5,120.8    5,454.0    5,726.7    5,981.8    6,211.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance or compensating balances (which are assets) is a means of
  financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding (which is a
  liability) is also a means of financing a deficit and therefore also has a positive sign.
\2\ Compensating balances were non-interest bearing Treasury bank deposits that Treasury mainly used to
  compensate banks for collecting tax and non-tax receipts under financial agency agreements. Most of the
  balances at the end of 2003 were required to be invested in nonmarketable Depositary Compensation Securities
  issued by the Treasury; the rest of the balances, and the entire amount in previous years, was invested in the
  way that the banks decided. The use of compensating balances was discontinued in 2004, and the amounts were
  drawn down to zero.
\3\ Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, uninvested deposit fund
  balances, allocations of special drawing rights, and other liability accounts; and, as an offset, cash and
  monetary assets (other than the Treasury operating cash balance and compensating balances), other asset
  accounts, and profit on sale of gold.
\4\ Consists primarily of Federal Financing Bank debt after 2004.
\5\ Consists mainly of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other
  than zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series securities.
\6\ The statutory debt limit is $8,184 billion.
\7\ Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost all
  measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt securities are almost
  all measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are otherwise measured at
  face value less unrealized discount (if any).
\8\ At the end of 2004, the Federal Reserve Banks held $700.3 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the
  public held $3,595.2 billion. Debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years.


Debt Held by the Public, Gross Federal Debt, and Liabilities Other Than 
                                  Debt

  The Federal Government issues debt securities for two principal 
purposes. First, it borrows from the public to finance the Federal 
deficit.\1\ Second, it issues debt to Government accounts, primarily 
trust funds, that accumulate surpluses. By law, trust fund surpluses 
must generally be invested in Federal securities. The gross Federal debt 
is defined to consist of both the debt held by the public and the debt 
held by Government accounts. Nearly all the Federal debt has been issued 
by the Treasury and is sometimes called ``public debt,'' but a small 
portion has been issued by other Government agencies and is called 
``agency debt.''\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ Debt held by the public was measured until 1988 as the par value 
(or face value) of the security, which is the principal amount due at 
maturity. (The only exception was savings bonds.) However, most Treasury 
securities are sold at a discount from par, and some are sold at a 
premium. Treasury debt held by the public is now measured as the sales 
price plus the amortized discount (or less the amortized premium). At 
the time of sale, the book value equals the sales price. Subsequently, 
it equals the sales price plus the amount of the discount that has been 
amortized up to that time. In equivalent terms, the book value of the 
debt equals par less the unamortized discount. (For a security sold at a 
premium, the definition is symmetrical.) When the measurement was 
changed, the data in Historical Tables were revised as far back as 
feasible, which was 1956. Agency debt, except for zero-coupon 
certificates, is recorded at par. For further analysis of these 
concepts, see Special Analysis E, ``Borrowing and Debt,'' in Special 
Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, 
pages E-5 to E-8, although some of the practices it describes have been 
revised. In 1997 Treasury began to sell inflation-indexed notes and 
bonds. The book value of these securities includes a periodic adjustment 
for inflation.
  \2\ The term ``agency debt'' is defined more narrowly in the budget 
than customarily in the securities market, where it includes not only 
the debt of the Federal agencies listed in table 16-3 but also the debt 
of the Government-sponsored enterprises listed in table 7-9 at the end 
of chapter 7 and certain Government-guaranteed securities.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Borrowing from the public, whether by the Treasury or by some other 
Federal agency, has a significant impact on the economy. Borrowing from 
the public is normally a good approximation of the Federal demand on 
credit markets. Regardless of whether the proceeds are used productively 
for tangible or intangible investment, the Federal demand on credit 
markets has to be financed out of the saving of households and 
businesses, the State and local sector, or the rest of the world. 
Federal borrowing thereby competes with the borrowing

[[Page 247]]

of other credit market sectors for financial resources in the credit 
market. Borrowing from the public thus affects the size and composition 
of assets held by the private sector and the perceived wealth of the 
public. It also increases the amount of future taxes required to pay 
interest to the public on Federal debt. Borrowing from the public is 
therefore an important concern of Federal fiscal policy.\3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \3\ The Federal subsector of the national income and product accounts 
provides a measure of ``net government saving'' (based on current 
expenditures and current receipts) that can be used to analyze the 
effect of Federal fiscal policy on national saving within the framework 
of an integrated set of measures of aggregate U.S. economic activity. 
The Federal subsector and its differences from the budget are discussed 
in chapter 14 of this volume, ``National Income and Product Accounts.''

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 248]]

  Issuing debt securities to Government accounts performs an essential 
function in accounting for the operation of these funds. The balances of 
debt represent the cumulative surpluses of these funds due to the excess 
of their tax receipts, interest receipts, and other collections compared 
to their spending. The interest on the debt that is credited to these 
funds accounts for the fact that some earmarked taxes and user fees will 
be spent at a later time than when the funds receive the monies. The 
debt securities are a liability of the general fund to the fund that 
holds the securities and are a mechanism for crediting interest to that 
fund on its recorded balances. These accounting balances generally 
provide the fund with authority to draw upon the U.S. Treasury in later 
years to make future payments on its behalf to the public. Public policy 
may run surpluses and accumulate debt in trust funds and other 
Government accounts in anticipation of future spending.
  However, issuing debt to Government accounts does not have any of the 
economic effects of borrowing from the public. It is an internal 
transaction of the Government, made between two accounts that are both 
within the Government itself. It is not a current transaction of the 
Government with the public; it is not financed by private saving and 
does not compete with the private sector for available funds in the 
credit market; it does not provide the account with resources other than 
a legal claim on the U.S. Treasury, which itself obtains real resources 
by taxation and borrowing; and its current interest does not have to be 
financed by taxes or other means.
  Furthermore, the debt held by Government accounts does not represent 
the estimated amount of the account's obligations or responsibilities to 
make future payments to the public. For example, if the account records 
the transactions of a social insurance program, the debt that it holds 
does not represent the actuarial present value of estimated future 
benefits (or future benefits less taxes) for the current participants in 
the program; nor does it represent the actuarial present value of 
estimated future benefits (or future benefits less taxes) for the 
current participants plus the estimated future participants over some 
stated time period. The future transactions of Federal social insurance 
and employee retirement programs, which own 92 percent of the debt held 
by Government accounts, are important in their own right and need to be 
analyzed separately. This can be done through information published in 
the actuarial and financial reports for these programs.\4\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \4\ Extensive actuarial analyses of the Social Security and Medicare 
programs are published in the annual reports of the boards of trustees 
of these funds. Annual actuarial reports are also prepared for major 
Federal employee retirement funds. The actuarial estimates for these and 
other programs are summarized in the Financial Report of the United 
States Government, prepared annually by the Treasury Department.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  This Budget uses a variety of information sources to analyze the 
condition of Social Security and Medicare, the Government's two largest 
social insurance programs. Chapter 13 of the present volume, 
``Stewardship,'' projects Social Security and Medicare outlays to 2080 
relative to GDP. It also discusses in some detail the actuarial 
projections prepared for the Social Security and Medicare trustees 
reports to evaluate the long-run actuarial deficiency or shortfall in 
these programs. A chapter in the main volume of the budget, ``The 
Nation's Fiscal Outlook,'' uses the same data in less detail to explain 
the long-run fiscal problems of Social Security and Medicare revealed by 
these projections. The actuarial shortfalls are very different in 
concept and much larger in size than the amount of Treasury debt that 
these programs hold.
  For all these reasons, debt held by the public is a better concept 
than gross Federal debt for analyzing the effect of the budget on the 
economy.
  Debt securities do not encompass all the liabilities of the Federal 
Government. For example, accounts payable occur in the normal course of 
buying goods and services; Social Security benefits are due and payable 
as of the end of the month but, according to statute, are paid during 
the next month; loan guarantee liabilities are incurred when the 
Government guarantees the payment of interest and principal on private 
loans; and liabilities for future pension and retiree health payments 
are incurred as part of the current compensation for the services 
performed by Federal civilian and military employees in producing 
Government outputs. Like debt securities sold in the credit market, 
these liabilities have their own distinctive effects on the economy. 
Federal liabilities are analyzed within the broader conceptual framework 
of Federal resources and responsibilities in chapter 13 of this volume, 
``Stewardship.'' The different types of liabilities are reported 
annually in the financial statements of Federal agencies and in the 
Financial Report of the United States Government, prepared by the 
Treasury Department.

         Government Surpluses or Deficits and the Change in Debt

  Table 16-2 summarizes Federal borrowing and debt from 2004 through 
2010. In 2004 the Government borrowed $382 billion, so the debt held by 
the public increased to $4,296 billion. The debt held by Government 
accounts increased $213 billion, and gross Federal debt increased by 
$595 billion to $7,355 billion.
  Debt held by the public. The Federal Government primarily finances 
deficits by borrowing from the public, and it primarily uses surpluses 
to repay debt held by the public. Table 16-2 shows the relationship 
between the Federal deficit or surplus and the change in debt held by 
the public. The borrowing or debt repayment depends on the Federal 
Government's expenditure programs and tax laws, on the economic 
conditions that influence tax receipts and outlays, and on debt 
management policy. The sensitivity of the budget to economic conditions 
is analyzed in chapter 12 of this volume, ``Economic Assumptions.''
  The total or unified budget surplus consists of two parts: the on-
budget surplus or deficit; and the surplus of the off-budget Federal 
entities, which have been ex

[[Page 249]]

cluded from the budget by law. Under present law, the off-budget Federal 
entities are the Social Security trust funds (Old-Age and Survivors 
Insurance and Disability Insurance) and the Postal Service fund.\5\ The 
off-budget totals are virtually the same as Social Security, which had a 
large surplus in 2004 and is estimated to have large and growing 
surpluses throughout the projection period. The on-budget and off-budget 
surpluses or deficits are added together to determine the Government's 
financing needs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \5\ For further explanation of the off-budget Federal entities, see 
chapter 23, ``Off-Budget Federal Entities and Non-Budgetary 
Activities.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The Government's need to borrow, or its ability to repay debt held by 
the public, has always depended on several other factors besides the 
unified budget surplus or deficit, such as the change in the Treasury 
operating cash balance. As shown in table 16-2, these other factors, 
which in this table are called ``financing other than the change in debt 
held by the public,'' can either increase or decrease the Government's 
need to borrow. (An increase in its need to borrow is represented by a 
negative sign, like the deficit.) Some of these individual factors 
themselves may be either positive or negative, and some of them vary 
considerably in size from year to year. In 2004 the deficit was $412 
billion and the ``financing other than the change in debt held by the 
public'' was $30 billion. As a result, the Government borrowed $382 
billion from the public.
  Over the long-run, it is a good approximation to say that ``the 
deficit is financed by borrowing from the public'' or ``the surplus is 
used to repay debt held by the public.'' Over the last 20 years, the 
cumulative deficit was $2,812 billion and the increase in debt held by 
the public was $2,989 billion. The other factors added a total of $177 
billion of borrowing, an average of $9 billion per year.
  In individual years it is also often a good approximation to say that 
the deficit and borrowing (or the surplus and debt repayment) are about 
the same. The variation, however, can be wide, ranging over the last 20 
years from additional borrowing (or lower repayment) of $63 billion in 
2002 to reduced borrowing of $30 billion in 2004. In 2004, as shown in 
table 16-2, $22 billion of the $30 billion difference was attributable 
to a one-time change in compensating balances. In 2003, on the other 
hand, the difference was only $5 billion, whereas in 2002 several 
factors were large and in combination accounted for $63 billion of the 
$221 billion increase in debt held by the public. Four specific factors 
have recently been especially important.
  Change in Treasury operating cash balance.--The operating cash balance 
decreased $26 billion during 2003, partly because it was higher than 
planned at the end of the previous year. During 2004, however, the 
initial cash balance was at about the level that had been planned. The 
operating cash balance then ended at essentially the same amount--only 
$1 billion more. It is estimated to again be essentially the same at the 
end of 2005. Changes in the operating cash balance, while occasionally 
large, are inherently limited. Decreases in cash--a means of financing 
the Government--are limited by the amount of past accumulations, which 
themselves required financing when they were built up. Increases are 
limited because it is more efficient to repay debt.
  Change in compensating balances.--Treasury used compensating balances 
for many years to compensate banks for collecting tax and non-tax 
receipts and providing other services under financial agency agreements. 
Under these agreements, Treasury deposited a non-interest bearing 
compensating balance with a bank. The imputed earnings from the 
compensating balance, calculated at the 91-day Treasury bill rate, were 
the source of the bank's compensation for performing the required 
services. Treasury determined the size of the deposit by balancing the 
value of the services provided with the imputed earnings of the 
compensating balance. Banks could use the compensating balances on 
deposit to make loans or buy investments, and all compensating balances 
were fully collateralized.
  The traditional compensating balances presented difficulties for cash 
and debt management in recent years. First, any decrease in the interest 
rate that was applied to compensating balances required Treasury to 
increase the size of compensating balances on deposit to pay for the 
services it needed. For example, because interest rates decreased so 
much during 2002, Treasury had to increase its compensating balances by 
$14 billion in that year. Second, when the debt outstanding reached the 
statutory debt limit, Treasury had to draw down the compensating 
balances and then make up for this action afterwards by increasing the 
balances to unusually high levels. These actions were inefficient and 
disruptive, and they created financial uncertainty for Treasury and the 
banks.
  In large part because of these difficulties, the 2004 budget proposed 
legislation that would allow Treasury to replace compensating balances 
by a permanent indefinite appropriation to pay banks directly for their 
services as depositaries and financial agents. This also would simplify 
Treasury's cash and debt management, would ensure that payments to 
financial institutions for services were made in a more predictable 
manner, and could result in budget savings.
  As an interim step, before the legislation could be enacted, Treasury 
began to replace its traditional compensating balances with depositary 
compensation securities (DCS) in July 2003. The banks held DCS instead 
of other acceptable investments, and the Treasury balances were secured 
by the DCS. The cost of the services provided to Treasury was part of 
the interest on the debt under either system. Under the traditional 
system, Treasury paid interest to the general public on the marketable 
securities sold to acquire the compensating balances; under the interim 
system, Treasury paid interest to banks on the DCS. By the end of 
December 2003, the traditional compensating balances had been replaced 
by DCS.
  Congress authorized a permanent indefinite appropriation to pay for 
the services in October 2003 in the

[[Page 250]]

Check Clearing for the 21st Century Act (P.L. 108-100). A permanent 
indefinite appropriation was then included in the Consolidated 
Appropriation Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-199). Treasury replaced the DCS by 
direct payments in March 2004. The total compensating balances at the 
end of 2003 under both systems were $22 billion, so table 16-2 shows 
that they were drawn down to zero during 2004.
  Net purchases of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad 
Retirement Investment Trust.--This trust fund was established by the 
Railroad Retirement and Survivors' Improvement Act of 2001. Most of the 
assets in the Railroad Retirement Board trust funds were transferred to 
the new trust fund in 2003, which invests its assets primarily in 
private stocks and bonds. The Act ordered special treatment of the 
purchase or sale of non-Federal assets by this trust fund, treating such 
purchases as a means of financing rather than an outlay. Therefore, the 
increased need to borrow from the public to finance the purchase of non-
Federal assets is part of the ``financing other than the change in debt 
held by the public'' rather than included as an increase in the deficit. 
This increased borrowing and publicly held debt by $20 billion in 2003. 
Net purchases were relatively small in 2004 and are estimated to remain 
relatively small in future years.\6\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \6\ The budget treatment of this fund is further discussed in chapter 
26, ``The Budget System and Concepts.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Net financing disbursements of the direct loan and guaranteed loan 
financing accounts.--The financing accounts were created by the Federal 
Credit Reform Act of 1990. Under this Act, budget outlays for direct 
loans and loan guarantees consist of the estimated subsidy cost of the 
loans or guarantees at the time when the direct loans or guaranteed 
loans are disbursed. The cash flows to and from the public resulting 
from these loans and guarantees--the disbursement and repayment of 
loans, the default payments on loan guarantees, the collections of 
interest and fees, and so forth--are not costs to the Government except 
for those costs already included in budget outlays. Therefore, they are 
non-budgetary in nature and are recorded as transactions of the non-
budgetary financing account for each credit program.\7\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \7\ The Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (sec. 505(b)) requires that 
the financing accounts be non-budgetary. As explained in chapter 23, 
``Off-Budget Federal Entities and Non-Budgetary Activities,'' they are 
non-budgetary in concept because they do not measure cost. For 
additional discussion of credit reform, see chapter 26 of this volume, 
``The Budget System and Concepts,'' and the other references cited in 
chapter 23.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The financing accounts also include several types of intra-
governmental transactions. In particular, they receive payment from the 
credit program accounts for the costs of new direct loans and loan 
guarantees; they also receive payment for any upward reestimate of the 
costs of direct loans and loan guarantees outstanding. These collections 
are offset against the gross disbursements of the financing accounts in 
determining the accounts' total net cash flows. The total net cash flows 
of the financing accounts, consisting of transactions with both the 
public and the budgetary accounts, are called ``net financing 
disbursements.'' They are defined in the same way as the ``outlays'' of 
a budgetary account and therefore affect the requirement for borrowing 
from the public in the same way as the deficit.
  The result is that the intragovernmental transactions of the financing 
accounts do not affect Federal borrowing from the public. Although the 
deficit changes because of the budget's outlay or receipt, the net 
financing disbursement changes in an equal amount with the opposite 
sign, so the effects cancel out. On the other hand, financing account 
disbursements to the public increase the requirement for borrowing from 
the public in the same way as an increase in budget outlays that are 
disbursed to the public in cash. Likewise, financing account receipts 
from the public can be used to finance the payment of the Government's 
obligations, and therefore they reduce the requirement for Federal 
borrowing from the public in the same way as an increase in budget 
receipts.
  The impact of the financing accounts became large in the mid-1990s. In 
2003 they required $7 billion of financing, which increased borrowing by 
this amount. In 2004, on the other hand, a large upward reestimate was 
made in the cost of outstanding Federal Housing Administration (FHA) 
housing mortgages. The credit program account in the budget made a large 
outlay to the guaranteed loan financing account, which in turn had an 
equal offsetting collection and therefore a large negative net financing 
disbursement. The result is shown as a positive amount in table 16-2, 
canceling out the effect of a higher budget deficit on the Government's 
borrowing requirement. Large upward reestimates of guarantees are also 
estimated for 2005, after which the pattern is expected to be more 
normal. The financing accounts are estimated to require additional 
financing of $11 billion in 2006 and from $17 billion to $18 billion in 
each of the following four years. A major part of this financing is 
normally due to the direct student loan program. Since direct loans 
require cash disbursements equal to the full amount of the loans when 
the loans are made, Federal borrowing requirements are initially 
increased. Later, when the loans are repaid, Federal borrowing 
requirements will decrease.
  Debt held by Government accounts.--The amount of Federal debt issued 
to Government accounts depends largely on the surpluses of the trust 
funds, both on-budget and off-budget, which owned 94 percent of the 
total Federal debt held by Government accounts at the end of 2004. In 
2004, for example, the total trust fund surplus was $193 billion, and 
Government accounts invested $213 billion in Federal securities. A major 
reason for the larger investment is that some special funds and 
revolving funds, as well as the trust funds, invest in Federal debt. 
Another factor is that the trust funds may change the amount of their 
cash assets not currently invested. The debt held in major accounts and 
the annual investments are shown in table 16-4.

                               Agency Debt

  Several Federal agencies, shown in table 16-3, sell debt securities to 
the public and at times in the past

[[Page 251]]

have sold securities to other Government accounts. During 2004, agencies 
repaid $0.4 billion of debt held by the public. Agency debt is less than 
one percent of Federal debt held by the public. Agencies are estimated 
to repay small amounts of debt in 2005 and 2006.
  The reasons for issuing agency debt differ considerably from one 
agency to another. The predominant agency borrower is the Tennessee 
Valley Authority, which had borrowed $26 billion from the public as of 
the end of 2004, or 97 percent of the total debt of all agencies. In 
some earlier periods, other agencies accounted for a much higher 
proportion of agency debt than they do now. TVA sells debt primarily to 
finance capital expenditures. 

                                            Table 16-3.  AGENCY DEBT
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       Borrowing or repayment (-) of
                                                                                    debt                Debt end
                                                                     ---------------------------------  of  2006
                                                                         2004       2005       2006     estimate
                                                                        actual    estimate   estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Borrowing from the public:
  Housing and Urban Development:
    Federal Housing Administration..................................        -79          *  .........        200
  Small Business Administration:
    Participation certificates: Section 505 development company.....  .........         -*  .........          7
  Architect of the Capitol..........................................         -3         -3         -4        156
  Farm Credit System Financial Assistance Corporation...............  .........       -325  .........  .........
  Federal Communications Commission.................................        -56          *  .........  .........
  National Archives.................................................         -8         -8        -10        225
  Tennessee Valley Authority:
    Bonds and Notes.................................................     -1,623        -88        -10     23,155
    Lease/leaseback obligations.....................................        -60        -35        -33      1,110
    Prepayment obligations..........................................      1,424       -105       -106      1,260
                                                                     -------------------------------------------
      Total, borrowing from the public..............................       -405       -563       -163     26,113
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 thousand or less.

  The Federal Housing Administration, on the other hand, has for many 
years issued both checks and debentures as means of paying claims to the 
public that arise from defaults on FHA-insured mortgages. Issuing 
debentures to pay the Government's bills is equivalent to selling 
securities to the public and then paying the bills by disbursing the 
cash borrowed, so the transaction is recorded as being simultaneously an 
outlay and a borrowing. The debentures are therefore classified as 
agency debt. The borrowing by FHA and a few other agencies that have 
engaged in similar transactions is thus inherent in the way that their 
programs operate.\8\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \8\ For an explanation of the monetary credits issued by the Federal 
Communications Commission (FCC), see chapter 26 of this volume, ``The 
Budget System and Concepts.'' The budgetary treatment of some of these 
securities and other securities inherent in the way programs operate is 
further explained in Special Analysis E of the 1989 Budget, pp. E-25 to 
E-26; and Special Analysis E of the 1988 Budget, pp. E-27 to E-28.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Some types of lease-purchase contracts are equivalent to direct 
Federal construction financed by Federal borrowing. A number of years 
ago, the Federal Government guaranteed the debt used to finance the 
construction of buildings for the National Archives and the Architect of 
the Capitol, and subsequently exercised full control over the design, 
construction, and operation of the buildings. The construction 
expenditures and interest were therefore classified as Federal outlays, 
and the borrowing was classified as Federal agency borrowing from the 
public.
  The proper budgetary treatment of lease-purchases was further examined 
in connection with the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. Several changes 
were made. Among other decisions, it was determined that outlays for a 
lease-purchase without substantial private risk will be recorded in an 
amount equal to the asset cost over the period during which the 
contractor constructs, manufactures, or purchases the asset; if the 
asset already exists, the outlays will be recorded when the contract is 
signed. Agency borrowing will be recorded each year to the extent of 
these outlays. The agency debt will subsequently be redeemed over the 
lease payment period by a portion of the annual lease payments according 
to an amortization schedule. This rule was effective starting in 
1991.\9\ The new budgetary treatment was reviewed in connection with the 
Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Some clarifications were made, but no 
substantive changes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \9\ The rule addressed all lease-purchases and capital leases from the 
public, not just those without substantial private risk. For all such 
contracts, the rule requires that budget authority be recorded up front 
for the present value of the lease payments. See OMB Circular No. A-11, 
Appendix B. Also see the section on outlays in chapter 26, ``The Budget 
System and Concepts.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The Tennessee Valley Authority has traditionally financed its capital 
construction by selling bonds and notes to the public. Starting in 2000, 
it has also employed two types of alternative financing methods. The 
first type of alternative financing method was lease/leasebacks. TVA 
signed contracts to lease some recently constructed power generators to 
private investors and simultaneously lease them back. It received a lump 
sum for leasing out its assets, and then leased them back at fixed 
annual payments for a set number of years. TVA retains substantially all 
of the economic benefits and risks related to ownership of the assets, 
and the

[[Page 252]]

lease/leasebacks are reported as liabilities on TVA's balance sheet 
under generally accepted accounting principles.
  The Office of Management and Budget determined that the TVA lease/
leasebacks are a means of financing the acquisition of assets owned and 
used by the Government. The arrangement is at least as governmental as a 
``lease-purchase without substantial private risk.'' The budget 
therefore records the upfront cash proceeds from the lease as borrowing 
from the public, not offsetting collections. Agency debt in the form of 
a lease obligation is recorded as a type of borrowing. The same budget 
treatment was applied to the lease/leaseback of qualified technological 
equipment in 2003. The total amount of the lease obligations beginning 
in 2000 is shown in table 16-3 separately from TVA bonds and notes to 
distinguish between the types of borrowing. The obligations for lease/
leasebacks were $1.2 billion at the end of 2004 and are estimated to 
decline steadily in the following years as they are amortized.
  The second type of alternative financing method is prepayments for 
power that TVA sells to its power distributors. Under the Discounted 
Energy Units program, which began in 2003, distributors may prepay a 
portion of the price of the power they plan to purchase in the future. 
In return, they obtain a discount on a specific quantity of the future 
power they buy from TVA. The quantity varies, depending on TVA's 
estimated cost of borrowing. Most of the prepayments have been 
relatively small. However, TVA also entered into a contract with Memphis 
Light, Gas, and Water (MLGW), under which that distributor prepaid $1.5 
billion in 2004 for a large portion of its power needs over the next 15 
years in return for a discount on that power. MLGW, in turn, financed 
its prepayment by selling tax-exempt bonds.
  The Office of Management and Budget determined that these prepayments 
are also a means of financing the acquisition of assets owned and used 
by the Federal Government, or, in effect, are used to refinance debt 
previously incurred to finance such assets. They are equivalent in 
concept to other forms of borrowing from the public, although at 
different terms and conditions. The prepayment obligations are recorded 
as liabilities, called ``unearned revenue,'' on TVA's balance sheet 
under generally accepted accounting principles. The budget therefore 
records the upfront cash proceeds from the prepayment as borrowing from 
the public, not offsetting collections. Agency debt in the form of a 
prepayment obligation is recorded as a type of borrowing. The total 
amount of prepayment obligations is shown in table 16-3 separately from 
bonds and notes and lease/leaseback obligations to distinguish among the 
types of borrowing. The prepayment obligations increased from zero to 
$47 million during 2003 and to $1,471 billion at the end of 2004 because 
of the contract with Memphis Light, Gas, and Water. The obligations are 
estimated to decline steadily in the following years as TVA provides 
electric power under the contracts.
  The amount of agency securities sold to the public has been reduced by 
borrowing from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). The FFB is an entity 
within the Treasury Department, one of whose purposes is to substitute 
Treasury borrowing for agency borrowing from the public. It has the 
authority to purchase agency debt and finance these purchases by 
borrowing from the Treasury. Agency borrowing from the FFB is not 
included in gross Federal debt. It would be double counting to add 
together (a) the agency borrowing from the FFB and (b) the Treasury 
borrowing from the public that was needed to provide the FFB with the 
funds to lend to the agencies.

                    Debt Held by Government Accounts

  Trust funds, and some special funds and public enterprise revolving 
funds, accumulate cash in excess of current needs in order to meet 
future obligations. These cash surpluses are generally invested in 
Treasury debt.
  Investment by trust funds and other Government accounts has risen 
greatly for many years. It was $213 billion in 2004, as shown in table 
16-4, and is estimated to rise to $277 billion in 2006. The holdings of 
Federal securities by Government accounts are estimated to grow to 
$3,587 billion by the end of 2006, or 41 percent of the gross Federal 
debt. The percentage is estimated to rise gradually in the following 
years, as the trust funds and several major revolving funds and special 
funds continue to accumulate surpluses.
  The large investment by Government accounts is concentrated among a 
few trust funds. The two Social Security trust funds--Old-Age and 
Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance--have a large combined 
surplus and invest $486 billion during 2004-06, which is 66 percent of 
the total estimated investment by Government accounts. The two Medicare 
trust funds--Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance--
account for another 7 percent of the total estimated investment.
  Apart from these four social insurance funds, the largest investment 
is by the funds for Federal employee retirement. The principal trust 
fund for Federal civilian employees is the civil service retirement and 
disability trust fund, which accounts for 13 percent of the total 
investment by Government accounts during 2004-06. The military 
retirement trust fund and the special fund for uniformed services 
retiree health care account for another 12 percent. Altogether, the 
investment by Social Security, Medicare, and these three Federal 
employee retirement funds is almost as much as the total investment by 
Government accounts during this period. At the end of 2006, they are 
estimated to own 91 percent of the total debt held by Government 
accounts. Many of the other Government accounts also increase their 
holdings of Federal securities during this period.
  Technical note on measurement.--The Treasury securities held by 
Government accounts consist almost entirely of the Government account 
series. Most were issued at par value (face value), and the securities 
issued at a discount or premium were traditionally re

[[Page 253]]

corded at par in the OMB and Treasury reports on Federal debt. However, 
there are two kinds of exceptions. First, in 1991, Treasury began to 
issue zero-coupon bonds to a very few Government accounts. Because the 
purchase price is a small fraction of par value and the amounts are 
large, the holdings are recorded in table 16-4 at par value less 
unamortized discount. The only two Government accounts that held zero-
coupon bonds during the period of this table are the Nuclear Waste 
Disposal fund in the Department of Energy and the Pension Benefit 
Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). The total unamortized discount on zero-
coupon bonds was $15.1 billion at the end of 2004.
  Second, in September 1993 Treasury began to subtract the unrealized 
discount on other Government account series securities in calculating 
``net federal securities held as investments of government accounts.'' 
Unlike the discount recorded for zero-coupon bonds and debt held by the 
public, the unrealized discount is the discount at the time of issue and 
is not amortized over the term of the security. In table 16-4 it is 
shown as a separate item at the end of the table and not distributed by 
account. The amount was $1.4 billion at the end of 2004.

                       Limitations on Federal Debt

  Definition of debt subject to limit.--Statutory limitations have 
usually been placed on Federal debt. Until World War I, the Congress 
ordinarily authorized a specific amount of debt for each separate issue. 
Beginning with the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917, however, the nature 
of the limitation was modified in several steps until it developed into 
a ceiling on the total amount of most Federal debt outstanding. This 
last type of limitation has been in effect since 1941. The limit 
currently applies to most debt issued by the Treasury since September 
1917, whether held by the public or by Government accounts; and other 
debt issued by Federal agencies that, according to explicit statute, is 
guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States Government.
  The third part of table 16-2 compares total Treasury debt with the 
amount of Federal debt that is subject to the limit. Nearly all Treasury 
debt is subject to the debt limit. Most of the Treasury debt not subject 
to the general statutory limit was issued by the Federal Financing Bank 
(FFB). The FFB, which is within the Treasury Department, is authorized 
to have outstanding up to $15 billion of publicly issued debt. It issued 
$14 billion of securities to the Civil Service Retirement and Disability 
fund on November 15, 2004, in exchange for an equal amount of regular 
Treasury securities, as explained below in the section on changes in the 
debt limit. The FFB securities have the same interest rates and 
maturities as the regular Treasury securities for which they were 
exchanged. The first maturity date is June 30, 2009, nearly five year 
after issuance; the final maturity date is June 30, 2019. The securities 
are expected to remain outstanding until they mature, and this 
assumption is reflected in tables 16-2 and 16-5. The other Treasury debt 
not subject to the general limit consists almost entirely of silver 
certificates and other currencies no longer being issued. It was $513 
million at the end of 2004 and gradually declines over time.
  The sole type of agency debt currently subject to the general limit is 
the debentures issued by the Federal Housing Administration, which were 
$200 million at the end of 2004.\10\ Some of the other agency debt, 
however, is subject to its own statutory limit. For example, the 
Tennessee Valley Authority is limited to $30 billion of bonds and notes 
outstanding.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \10\ For purposes of the debt limit, the FHA debt was calculated to be 
$184 million.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The comparison between Treasury debt and debt subject to limit also 
includes an adjustment for measurement differences in the treatment of 
discounts and premiums. As explained elsewhere in this chapter, debt 
securities may be sold at a discount or premium, and the measurement of 
debt may take this into account rather than recording the face value of 
the securities. However, the measurement differs between gross Federal 
debt (and its components) and the statutory definition of debt subject 
to limit. An adjustment is needed to derive debt subject to limit (as 
defined by law) from Treasury debt, and this adjustment is defined in 
footnote 7 to table 16-2 (and footnote 4 of table 16-5). The amount is 
relatively small: $5.8 billion at the end of 2004 compared to the total 
unamortized discount (less premium) of $51.2 billion on all Treasury 
securities.

[[Page 254]]

                                     

                                Table 16-4.  DEBT HELD BY GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS \1\
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Investment or Disinvestment (-)       Holdings
                                                             ---------------------------------------   end  of
                       Description                                2004         2005         2006         2006
                                                                 actual      estimate     estimate     estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Investment in Treasury debt:
 
  Energy:
 
    Nuclear waste disposal fund \1\.........................        1,894          957  ...........       17,043
    Uranium enrichment decontamination fund.................          247          453          270        4,380
  Health and Human Services:
 
    Federal hospital insurance trust fund...................       13,068        9,809       17,583      291,767
    Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund......       -7,410        1,164       14,868       33,471
    Vaccine Injury compensation fund........................          118          148          166        2,329
  Housing and Urban Development:
 
    Federal Housing Administration mutual mortgage fund.....         -499        4,400        2,603       30,324
    Other HUD...............................................          321          345          308        8,219
  Interior:.................................................
                                                               Abandoned             3  ...........        2,048
  Labor:
 
    Unemployment trust fund.................................       -2,949          827  ...........       46,066
    Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation \1\................          264          514          299       13,293
  State:....................................................
                                                               Foreign Se          582           96       13,506
  Transportation:
 
    Highway trust fund......................................       -3,366        2,980          450       13,642
    Airport and airway trust fund...........................         -626          -35         -629        9,228
  Homeland Security:
 
    Oil spill liability trust fund..........................         -126         -132         -187          510
    Aquatic resources trust fund............................           34         -144  ...........        1,306
  Treasury:.................................................
                                                                 Exchange          394  ...........       10,713
  Veterans Affairs:
 
    National service life insurance trust fund..............         -298         -395         -476       10,078
    Other trust funds.......................................           37           16           12        2,033
    Federal funds...........................................          -24          -25          -33          415
  Other Defense-Civil:
 
    Uniformed Services Retiree Health Care Fund.............       17,418       22,209       23,626       81,699
    Military retirement trust fund..........................        4,918       10,319        8,370      195,969
    Harbor maintenance trust fund...........................          295         -404  ...........        1,833
  Environmental Protection Agency:
 
    Hazardous substance trust fund..........................         -281          143          150        2,520
    Leaking underground storage tank trust fund.............          195          203  ...........        2,436
  International Assistance Programs:
 
    Overseas Private Investment Corporation.................          137          166  ...........        3,961
  Office of Personnel Management:
 
    Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund......       30,151       31,941       31,290      695,091
    Employees life insurance fund...........................        1,329        1,280        1,319       30,706
    Employees health benefits fund..........................        1,737        1,316        1,344       13,434
  Social Security Administration:
 
    Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund \2\..      139,172      151,016      164,948    1,768,563
    Federal disability insurance trust fund \2\.............       12,007        9,982        8,979      201,760
  Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation:
 
    Farm Credit System Insurance fund.......................          205          -92  ...........        1,924
  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation:
 
    Bank Insurance fund.....................................        1,035        1,276           37       33,402
    FSLIC Resolution fund...................................           50          297  ...........        3,310
    Savings Association Insurance fund......................          430          625          340       12,817
  National Credit Union Administration:.....................
                                                               Share insu          441          409        6,909
  Postal Service fund \2\...................................       -1,368           -1  ...........        1,282
  Railroad Retirement Board trust funds \1\.................         -555         -212          490        2,042
  Other Federal funds \3\...................................        4,584          454           11       13,874
  Other trust funds \3\.....................................         -384       -1,790            2        4,381
  Unrealized discount, \3\..................................          -28            *  ...........       -1,477
                                                             ---------------------------------------------------
      Total, investment in Treasury debt \1\................      212,559      251,032      276,645    3,586,806
                                                             ===================================================

[[Page 255]]

 
            Total, investment in Federal debt \1\                 212,559      251,032      276,645    3,586,806
                                                             ===================================================
                         MEMORANDUM
 
Investment by Federal funds (on-budget).....................       26,350       32,417       27,870      244,331
Investment by Federal funds (off-budget)....................       -1,368           -*  ...........        1,282
Investment by trust funds (on-budget).......................       36,426       57,617       74,848    1,372,348
Investment by trust funds (off-budget)......................      151,178      160,998      173,927    1,970,323
Unrealized discount \1\.....................................          -28            *  ...........       -1,477
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 thousand or less.
 
\1\ Debt held by Government accounts is measured at face value except for the Treasury zero-coupon bonds held by
  the Nuclear Waste Disposal fund and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), which are recorded at
  market or redemption price; and the unrealized discount on Government account series, which is not distributed
  by account. Changes are not estimated in the unrealized discount. If recorded at face value, the debt held by
  the Nuclear Waste Disposal fund would be $14.4 billion higher than recorded in this table at the end of 2004;
  the debt held by PBGC would be $0.7 billion higher.
 
\2\ Off-budget Federal entity.
 
\3\ Retroactive adjustments were made as of the end of 2003. The debt held by the Telecommunications Development
  Fund is not recorded as Federal debt ($32 million); the debt held by the Railroad Retirement Board trust funds
  is increased by $2 million; and the absolute value of the unrealized discount is decreased by $193 million.

  Changes in the debt limit.--The statutory debt limit has been changed 
many times. Since 1960, Congress has passed 71 separate acts to raise 
the limit, extend the duration of a temporary increase, or revise the 
definition. For a long period up to 1990, the debt limit was also 
changed frequently. During the 1990s, however, the debt limit was 
increased three times by amounts large enough to last for two years or 
more. All three of these increases were enacted as part of a deficit 
reduction package or a plan to balance the budget and were intended to 
last a relatively long time:

 the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990, the Omnibus Budget 
  Reconciliation Act of 1993, and the Balanced Budget Act of 1997.\11\\11
\ The Acts and the statutory limits since 1940 are listed in Historical 
Tables, Budget of the United States Government, table 7.3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 increased the debt limit to $5,950 
billion, which lasted until 2002. The debt reached the limit in April 
2002, the Treasury Department took a variety of administrative actions 
to keep within the limit, and on June 28 the President signed a bill to 
raise the limit to $6,400 billion. This process was repeated within less 
than one year. The debt reached the limit in February 2003, the Treasury 
Department again responded with various administrative actions, and on 
May 27, 2003, the President signed a bill that raised the limit to 
$7,384 billion.
  This limit did not last much longer than the previous limit. By August 
2004, the Secretary of Treasury wrote Congress that the debt subject to 
limit might reach the ceiling in September or October 2004. It did reach 
the limit on October 14 and stayed there until the limit was increased.
  Treasury took a number of administrative steps to meet the 
Government's obligation to pay its bills and invest its trust funds 
while keeping debt under the statutory limit. On October 14, 2004, the 
Secretary of Treasury declared that he would not be able to fully invest 
the Government Securities Investment Fund (G-fund) as of that day. This 
fund is one component of the Thrift Savings Fund, a defined contribution 
pension plan for Federal employees. The Secretary has statutory 
authority to suspend investment of the G-fund in Treasury securities as 
needed to prevent the debt from exceeding the debt limit. When he does 
this, he is required to make the fund whole after the debt limit has 
been raised by restoring the forgone interest and investing the fund 
fully. Starting on October 14, Treasury determined each day the amount 
of investments that would allow the fund to be invested as fully as 
possible without exceeding the debt limit. That amount was invested, and 
no more. The balances not invested varied throughout the period. In 
addition to this step, Treasury discontinued the acceptance of 
subscriptions to the state and local government series of securities.
  As the need for financing grew, Treasury took further steps. On 
November 15, the Federal Financing Bank (FFB) issued $14 billion of FFB 
securities to the Civil Service Retirement and Disability fund in 
exchange for an equal amount of regular Treasury securities, which FFB 
then exchanged with Treasury at market value in return for the 
extinguishment of an equal market value of FFB debt owed to Treasury. 
The FFB securities are not subject to the debt limit, as explained 
above, whereas the regular Treasury securities are subject to the limit. 
The Secretary also declared a debt issuance suspension period from 
November 17 to December 2. This allowed him to redeem a limited amount 
of securities held by the Civil Service Retirement and Disability fund 
and stop investing its receipts. Treasury disinvested part of the 
Exchange Stabilization fund for one day. Treasury also delayed the 
announcement of auctions of marketable securities.

[[Page 256]]

  All the steps taken during October and November had also been taken on 
previous occasions when the debt had reached the statutory limit, 
including 2002 or 2003. When the debt limit was reached in those years, 
Treasury also reduced its compensating balances held in banks to pay for 
services under financial agency agreements. However, compensating 
balances were discontinued in 2004, as explained in a previous section.

               Table 16-5.  FEDERAL FUNDS FINANCING AND CHANGE IN DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Estimate
            Description                Actual  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009       2010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Federal funds deficit (-)..........     -604.8     -653.0     -657.0     -583.5     -537.4     -530.7     -526.4
 
Means of financing other than
 borrowing:
  Change in: \1\
    Treasury operating cash               -1.4        1.3  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
     balances......................
    Compensating balances \2\......       22.2  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Checks outstanding, etc \3\....        9.1        6.9       18.9        0.5        0.3        0.5        0.5
  Seignorage on coins..............        0.7        0.6        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7
  Less: Net financing
   disbursements:
    Direct loan financing accounts.       -4.9       -9.1      -12.8      -20.0      -20.7      -20.1      -20.7
    Guaranteed loan financing              9.4        8.9        1.8       -2.3       -2.1       -3.2       -2.9
     accounts......................
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, means of financing           35.1        8.7        8.6      -21.1      -21.8      -22.2      -22.5
       other than borrowing........
                                    ============================================================================
 
Decrease or increase (-) in Federal      -25.0      -32.4      -27.9      -37.9      -39.3      -42.0      -44.9
 debt held by Federal funds........
Increase or decrease (-) in Federal       -0.3       13.4       -0.2       -0.5       -0.7       -2.8       -2.4
 debt not subject to limit.........
                                    ============================================================================
 
    Total, requirement for Federal       595.0      663.3      676.4      643.0      599.2      597.7      596.1
     funds borrowing subject to
     debt limit....................
                                    ============================================================================
 
Change in discount and premium \4\.        0.7  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
Change in unrealized discount \5\..         -*  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                    ============================================================================
 
Increase in debt subject to limit..      595.7      663.3      676.4      643.0      599.2      597.7      596.1
 
              ADDENDUM
 
Debt subject to statutory limit \6\    7,333.4    7,996.6    8,673.0    9,316.0    9,915.3   10,512.9   11,109.1
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less
 
\1\ A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance or compensating balances (which are assets) is a means of
  financing the deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding (which is a
  liability) is also a means of financing the deficit and therefore also has a positive sign.
 
\2\ Compensating balances were non-interest bearing Treasury bank deposits that Treasury mainly used to
  compensate banks for collecting tax and non-tax receipts under financial agency agreements. Most of the
  balances at the end of 2003 were required to be invested in nonmarketable Depositary Compensation Securities
  issued by the Treasury; the rest of the balances, and the entire amount in previous years, was invested in the
  way that the banks decided. The use of compensating balances was discontinued in 2004 and the amounts were
  drawn down to zero.
 
\3\ Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability
  accounts, allocations of special drawing rights; and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets (other than the
  Treasury operating cash balance and compensating balances), miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on the
  sale of gold.
 
\4\ Consists of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than
  zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series securities. The unrealized discount is
  for Government account series securities.
 
\6\ The statutory debt limit is $8,184 billion.

  These Treasury actions were used for a little more than one month. 
Congress passed a bill raising the debt limit to $8,184 billion on 
November 18, and the President signed the bill on November 19. Treasury 
promptly invested the G-fund and Civil Service Retirement and Disability 
fund fully and restored the forgone interest as prescribed by law. The 
securities whose auctions were postponed were issued on time, except for 
one issue of 4-week bills that was delayed a few days, and subscriptions 
to the state and local government series were accepted again.
  Methods of changing the debt limit.--The statutory limit is usually 
changed by normal legislative procedures. Under the rules adopted by the 
House of Representatives, it can also be changed as a consequence of the 
annual Congressional budget resolution, which is not itself a law. The 
budget resolution includes a provision specifying the appropriate level 
of the debt subject to limit at the end of each fiscal year. The rule 
provides that, when the budget resolution is adopted by both Houses of 
the Congress, the vote in the House of Representatives is deemed to have 
been a vote in favor of a joint resolution setting the statutory limit 
at the level specified in the budget resolution. The joint resolution is 
transmitted to the Senate for further action, where it may be amended to 
change the debt limit provision or in any other way. If it passes both 
Houses of the Congress, it is sent to the President for his signature.

[[Page 257]]

  The House of Representatives first adopted this rule for 1980, 
although it was not included in the rules for several years before 2003.
  Federal funds financing and the change in debt subject to limit.--The 
change in debt held by the public, as shown in table 16-2, is determined 
primarily by the total Government deficit or surplus. The debt subject 
to limit, however, includes not only debt held by the public but also 
debt held by Government accounts. The change in debt subject to limit is 
therefore determined both by the factors that determine the total 
Government deficit or surplus and by the factors that determine the 
change in debt held by Government accounts. The effect of debt held by 
Government accounts on the total debt subject to limit is brought out 
sharply in the second part of table 16-2. The change in debt held by 
Government accounts is a large proportion of the change in total debt 
subject to limit each year and accounts for half of the estimated total 
increase from 2005 through 2010.
  The budget is composed of two groups of funds, Federal funds and trust 
funds. The Federal funds, in the main, are derived from tax receipts and 
borrowing and are used for the general purposes of the Government. The 
trust funds, on the other hand, are financed by taxes or other receipts 
earmarked by law for specified purposes, such as paying Social Security 
benefits or making grants to state governments for highway 
construction.\12\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \12\ For further discussion of the trust funds and Federal funds 
groups, see chapter 22, ``Trust Funds and Federal Funds.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  A Federal funds deficit must generally be financed by borrowing, which 
can be done either by selling securities to the public or by issuing 
securities to Government accounts that are not within the Federal funds 
group. Federal funds borrowing consists almost entirely of Treasury 
securities that are subject to the statutory debt limit. Very little 
debt subject to statutory limit has been issued for reasons except to 
finance the Federal funds deficit. The change in debt subject to limit 
is therefore determined primarily by the Federal funds deficit, which is 
equal to the difference between the total Government surplus and the 
trust fund surplus. Trust fund surpluses are almost entirely invested in 
securities subject to the debt limit, and trust funds hold most of the 
debt held by Government accounts.
  Table 16-5 derives the change in debt subject to limit. In 2004 the 
Federal funds deficit was $605 billion, and other factors reduced the 
requirement to borrow subject to limit by $9 billion. The largest of 
these factors was ending the use of compensating balances, which allowed 
borrowing to be reduced by $22 billion. The net financing disbursements 
of the guaranteed loan financing accounts reduced the financing 
requirements by $9 billion, as explained in an earlier section. As an 
offset, special funds and revolving funds, which are part of the Federal 
funds group, invested $25 billion in Treasury securities. The largest 
single investment was $17 billion for the uniformed services retiree 
health care fund. As a net result of all these factors, debt subject to 
limit increased by $596 billion, while debt held by the public increased 
by $382 billion.
  The debt subject to limit is estimated to increase to $7,997 billion 
by the end of 2005, which begins to approach the present statutory debt 
limit of $8,184 billion. This is caused by a rise in the Federal funds 
deficit, supplemented by the other factors shown in table 16-5. Some of 
these factors are large, especially the investment by Federal special 
and revolving funds and in particular the special fund for uniformed 
services retiree health care. As a result, while debt held by the public 
increases by $1,916 billion from the end of 2004 through 2010, debt 
subject to limit increases by $3,776 billion.

                     Debt Held by Foreign Residents

  During most of American history, the Federal debt was held almost 
entirely by individuals and institutions within the United States. In 
the late 1960s, as shown in table 16-6, foreign holdings were just over 
$10.0 billion, less than 5 percent of the total Federal debt held by the 
public.
  Foreign holdings began to grow significantly starting in 1970. This 
increase has been almost entirely due to decisions by foreign central 
banks, corporations, and individuals, rather than the direct marketing 
of these securities to foreign residents. At the end of 2004 foreign 
holdings of Treasury debt were $1,886 billion, which was 44 percent of 
the total debt held by the public.\13\ Foreign central banks owned 64 
percent of the Federal debt held by foreign residents; private investors 
owned nearly all the rest. The percentage held by foreign central banks 
is up from 56 percent at the end of 2003, because they bought much 
greater quantities of Treasury securities than did private investors. 
All the Federal debt held by foreign residents is denominated in 
dollars.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \13\ The debt calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 
Department of Commerce, is different, though similar in size, because of 
a different method of valuing the securities.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Although the amount of Federal debt held by foreign residents has 
grown greatly over this period, the proportion that foreign residents 
own, after increasing abruptly in the very early 1970s, remained about 
15-20 percent until the mid-1990s. During 1995-97, however, foreign 
holdings increased on average by around $200 billion each year, 
considerably more than total Federal borrowing from the public.\14\ As a 
result, the Federal debt held by individuals and institutions within the 
United States decreased in absolute amount during those years, despite 
further Federal borrowing, and the percentage of Federal debt held by 
foreign residents grew from 19 percent at the end of 1994 to 32 percent 
at the end of 1997. In the next few years the change in foreign debt 
holdings was much smaller. However, the Federal debt held by foreign 
residents increased by $255 billion in 2003 and by $430 billion in 2004.

[[Page 258]]

The percentage of Federal debt held by foreign residents increased from 
34 percent to 44 percent during these two years. In 2004, the increase 
in foreign holdings was more than the total Federal borrowing from the 
public.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \14\ Table 16-6 does not show the increase in foreign holdings in 1995 
because of a benchmark revision. As explained in footnote 3 to that 
table, a benchmark revision reduced the estimated holdings as of 
December 1994 (by $47.9 billion). Because estimates of foreign holdings 
were not revised retroactively, the increase in 1995 was more than the 
difference between the beginning and end of year amounts as now 
calculated. Before the benchmark revision, the increase was estimated to 
be $192.6 billion.

                                  Table 16-6.  FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF FEDERAL DEBT
                                          (Dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                            Debt held by the public         Borrowing from the
                                                     ------------------------------------         public
                   Fiscal Year                                                Percentage -----------------------
                                                        Total    Foreign \1\    foreign   Total \2\  Foreign \1\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1965................................................      260.8        12.3          4.7        3.9         0.3
1966................................................      263.7        11.6          4.4        2.9        -0.7
1967................................................      266.6        11.4          4.3        2.9        -0.2
1968................................................      289.5        10.7          3.7       22.9        -0.7
1969................................................      278.1        10.3          3.7      -11.4        -0.4
 
1970................................................      283.2        14.0          5.0        5.1         3.8
1971................................................      303.0        31.8         10.5       19.8        17.8
1972................................................      322.4        49.2         15.2       19.3        17.3
1973................................................      340.9        59.4         17.4       18.5        10.3
1974................................................      343.7        56.8         16.5        2.8        -2.6
 
1975................................................      394.7        66.0         16.7       51.0         9.2
1976................................................      477.4        69.8         14.6       82.7         3.8
TQ..................................................      495.5        74.6         15.1       18.1         4.9
1977................................................      549.1        95.5         17.4       53.6        20.9
1978................................................      607.1       121.0         19.9       58.0        25.4
1979 \3\............................................      640.3       120.3         18.8       33.2         N/A
 
1980................................................      711.9       121.7         17.1       71.6         1.4
1981................................................      789.4       130.7         16.6       77.5         9.0
1982................................................      924.6       140.6         15.2      135.2         9.9
1983................................................    1,137.3       160.1         14.1      212.7        19.5
1984................................................    1,307.0       175.5         13.4      169.7        15.4
 
1985 \3\............................................    1,507.3       222.9         14.8      200.3         N/A
1986................................................    1,740.6       265.5         15.3      233.4        42.7
1987................................................    1,889.8       279.5         14.8      149.1        14.0
1988................................................    2,051.6       345.9         16.9      161.9        66.4
1989................................................    2,190.7       394.9         18.0      139.1        49.0
 
1990 \3\............................................    2,411.6       440.3         18.3      220.8         N/A
1991................................................    2,689.0       477.3         17.7      277.4        37.0
1992................................................    2,999.7       535.2         17.8      310.7        57.9
1993................................................    3,248.4       591.3         18.2      248.7        56.1
1994................................................    3,433.1       655.8         19.1      184.7        64.5
 
1995 \3\............................................    3,604.4       800.4         22.2      171.3         N/A
1996................................................    3,734.1       978.1         26.2      129.7       177.7
1997................................................    3,772.3     1,218.2         32.3       38.3       240.0
1998................................................    3,721.1     1,216.9         32.7      -51.2        -1.2
1999 \3\............................................    3,632.4     1,281.4         35.3      -88.7         N/A
 
2000 \3\............................................    3,409.8     1,057.9         31.0     -222.6         N/A
2001................................................    3,319.6     1,005.5         30.3      -90.2       -52.3
2002 \3\............................................    3,540.4     1,200.8         33.9      220.8         N/A
2003................................................    3,913.4     1,455.8         37.2      373.0       255.0
2004................................................    4,295.5     1,885.9         43.9      382.1       430.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A = Not available.
\1\ Estimated by Treasury Department. These estimates exclude agency debt, the holdings of which are believed to
  be small. The data on foreign holdings are recorded by methods that are not fully comparable with the data on
  debt held by the public. Projections of foreign holdings are not available.
\2\ Borrowing from the public is defined as equal to the change in debt held by the public from the beginning of
  the year to the end, except to the extent that the amount of debt is changed by reclassification.
\3\ Benchmark revisions reduced the estimated foreign holdings of the Federal debt as of December 1978;
  increased the estimated foreign holdings as of December 1984 and December 1989; reduced the estimated holdings
  as of December 1994 and March 2000; and increased the estimated holdings as of June 2002. A conceptual
  revision increased the estimated foreign holdings as of 1999. The change in debt that is recorded as held by
  foreign residents in these fiscal years reflects the benchmark or conceptual revisions as well as the net
  purchases of Federal securities. Borrowing is therefore not shown in these years.

  Foreign holdings of Federal debt are around 15 percent of the foreign-
owned assets in the United States, depending on the method of measuring 
total assets. The foreign purchases of Federal debt securities do not

[[Page 259]]

measure the full impact of the capital inflow from abroad on the market 
for Federal debt securities. The capital inflow supplies additional 
funds to the credit market generally, and thus affects the market for 
Federal debt. For example, the capital inflow includes deposits in U.S. 
financial intermediaries that themselves buy Federal debt.

  Federal, Federally Guaranteed, and Other Federally Assisted Borrowing

  The effect of the Government on borrowing in the credit market arises 
not only from its own borrowing to finance Federal operations but also 
from its assistance to certain borrowing by the public. The Government 
guarantees borrowing by private and other non-Federal lenders, which is 
another term for guaranteed lending. In addition to its guarantees, it 
has established private corporations called ``Government-sponsored 
enterprises,'' or GSEs, to provide financial intermediation for 
specified public purposes; it exempts the interest on most State and 
local government debt from income tax; it permits mortgage interest to 
be deducted in calculating taxable income; and it insures the deposits 
of banks and thrift institutions, which themselves make loans.
  Federal credit programs and other forms of assistance are discussed in 
chapter 7 of this volume, ``Credit and Insurance.'' Detailed data are 
presented in tables at the end of that chapter.