[Analytical Perspectives]
[Current Services Estimates]
[25. Current Services Estimates]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
There has long been a desire to have a neutral benchmark against which
policy proposals can be measured. Since the early 1970s when the first
requirements for the calculation of a ``current services'' baseline were
enacted, a variety of concepts and measures have been employed. In
recent years, the current services baseline has been defined to be
identical to the baseline required by the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA).
However, that baseline has some serious technical flaws, which
compromise its ability to serve as a neutral measure. This section
provides detailed estimates of a baseline that corrects these flaws. It
also discusses alternative formulations for the baseline.
Ideally, a current services baseline would provide a projection of
estimated receipts, outlays, deficits or surpluses, and budget authority
needed to reflect this year's enacted policies and programs for each
year in the future. Because such a concept would be nearly impossible to
calculate across all segments of the government, the baseline has become
largely a mechanical construct. The following section discusses the
construct as it applies to different types of programs. The baseline is
not intended to be a prediction of the final outcome of the annual
budget process, nor is it a proposed budget. By itself, the current
services baseline commits no one to any particular policy. The
commitments or constraints reflected in the current services estimates
are based on the tax and spending policies contained in current law.
The current services baseline is used in a variety of ways: It can
warn of future problems, either for Government fiscal policy as a whole
or for individual tax and spending programs. It is a ``policy-neutral''
benchmark against which the President's Budget and other budget
proposals can be compared to see the magnitude of the proposed changes.
The following table shows current services estimates of receipts,
outlays, and surpluses for 2004 through 2010. They are based on the
economic assumptions described later in this chapter. The estimates are
shown on a unified budget basis. The off-budget receipts and outlays of
the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service Fund are added to
the on-budget receipts and outlays to calculate the unified budget
totals. The table also shows the current services estimates by major
component. The BEA baseline deficits are shown as a memorandum in the
table.
Table 25-1. BASELINE CATEGORY TOTALS
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........................... 1,880.1 2,053.0 2,177.9 2,347.2 2,518.3 2,668.0 2,841.0
Outlays:
Discretionary:
DoD-Military................... 436.3 443.1 416.7 416.1 427.8 439.2 453.0
Homeland security.............. 25.3 30.2 33.1 33.9 34.5 35.2 36.0
Other discretionary............ 433.8 456.8 464.3 472.7 480.2 487.1 497.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary.......... 895.4 930.0 914.2 922.7 942.5 961.5 986.0
Mandatory:
Social Security................ 491.5 515.1 540.1 566.7 595.8 629.9 665.5
Medicare....................... 264.9 290.3 340.2 381.5 406.5 432.8 460.3
Medicaid and SCHIP............. 180.8 193.6 198.0 210.6 228.8 249.0 270.8
Other mandatory................ 299.3 336.9 337.4 326.5 327.0 332.9 355.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory.............. 1,236.5 1,335.9 1,415.7 1,485.3 1,558.1 1,644.6 1,751.9
Net interest..................... 160.2 177.5 209.3 242.1 269.0 290.7 309.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays...................... 2,292.2 2,443.4 2,539.1 2,650.1 2,769.6 2,896.8 3,047.8
Unified deficit.................. -412.1 -390.4 -361.2 -302.8 -251.3 -228.8 -206.8
On-budget...................... -567.4 -552.4 -534.3 -500.3 -469.4 -462.2 -462.3
Off-budget..................... 155.2 162.0 173.1 197.5 218.1 233.3 255.6
Memorandum:
BEA baseline deficit............. -412.1 -390.7 -368.8 -314.6 -256.2 -213.3 -211.5
Do not extend emergencies...... ......... ......... 5.3 9.0 10.7 12.0 12.7
Correct growth rates for pay... ......... ......... 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8
Remove special rule for
administrative expenses of
selected programs............ ......... ......... 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6
Extend certain tax provisions.. ......... 0.3 -* -0.4 -9.6 -31.5 -11.9
Related debt service........... ......... * 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline deficit......... -412.1 -390.4 -361.2 -302.8 -251.3 -228.8 -206.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*$50 million or less.
Conceptual Basis for Estimates
Receipts and outlays are divided into two categories that are
important for calculating the current services estimates: those
controlled by authorizing legislation (direct spending and receipts) and
those controlled through the annual appropriations process
(discretionary spending). Different estimating rules apply to each
category. There are numerous alternative rules that could be used to
develop current services. The next section discusses some alternatives
that might be considered.
Direct spending and receipts.--Direct spending includes the major
entitlement programs, such as social security, medicare, medicaid,
Federal employee retirement, unemployment compensation, food stamps and
other means-tested entitlements. It also includes such programs as
deposit insurance and farm price and income supports, where the
Government is legally obligated to make payments under certain
conditions. Receipts and direct spending are alike in that they involve
ongoing activities that generally operate under permanent authority
(they do not require annual authorization), and the underlying statutes
generally specify the tax rates or benefit levels that must be collected
or paid, and who must pay or who is eligible to receive benefits. The
current services baseline assumes that receipts and direct spending
programs continue in the future as specified by current law. In most
cases, that is what will occur without enactment of new legislation. The
budgetary impact of anticipated regulations and administrative actions
that are permissible under current law are also reflected in the
estimates.
If a baseline is intended to reflect current law, then the provisions
of law providing spending authority and the authority to collect taxes
or other receipts that expire under current law should be assumed to
expire. However, the current services baseline assumes extension of
several types of authority:
Expiring provisions affecting excise taxes dedicated to a
trust fund are assumed to be extended at current rates. During
the projection period of 2005 through 2010, taxes deposited in
the Highway and Aquatic Resources trust funds, which expire on
September 30, 2005, and taxes deposited in the Airport and
Airway trust fund, which expire on September 30, 2007, are the
only taxes affected by this exception.
Direct spending programs that will expire under current law
are assumed to be extended if their 2005 outlays exceed $50
million. For example, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
and child care entitlement to States, which expired at the end
of 2002 and have been temporarily extended several times, are
now scheduled to expire in March, 2005. The baseline estimates
provided here assume continuation of these programs throughout
the projection period. However, programs enacted after the
enactment of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 that are
explicitly temporary in nature expire in the baseline even if
[[Page 390]]
their current year outlays exceed the $50 million threshold.
Certain provisions in the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts that were
clearly not intended to be temporary are assumed to continue
past their expiration date. These provisions include
reductions in individual income taxes on capital gains and
dividends, and increased expensing for small businesses.
Unlike the two extensions discussed above, the BEA baseline
definitions, developed before the enactment of the 2001 and
2003 tax acts, do not provide for extension of these
provisions.
Discretionary spending.--Discretionary programs differ in one
important aspect from direct spending programs--Congress provides
spending authority for almost all discretionary programs one year at a
time. The spending authority is normally provided in the form of annual
appropriations. Absent appropriations of additional funds in the future,
discretionary programs would cease to exist after existing balances were
spent. If the baseline was intended to reflect current law, then a
baseline would only reflect the expenditure of remaining balances from
appropriations laws. Instead the current services baseline provides a
mechanical definition for discretionary programs that is somewhat
arbitrary. The definition used here attempts to keep discretionary
spending level in real terms. For 2005, the current services estimates
for discretionary programs are equal to enacted 2005 appropriations. For
2006 through 2010, funding for most accounts is equal to this 2005 level
adjusted for inflation. The inflation rates used here are similar to
those required by the BEA but adjust to remove the overcompensation for
federal pay inherent in the BEA definition. Unlike the BEA requirements,
these current services estimates assume that federal pay raises are
effective in January, as required under current law. At the time the BEA
was enacted, it ignored the nearly contemporaneous enactment of the
Federal Employees Compensation Act of 1991 that shifted the effective
date of federal employee pay raises from October to January. Also, the
estimates presented here exclude the special adjustment for
administrative expenses for certain benefit programs required by the
BEA. This provision is inconsistent with the baseline rules for other
accounts that fund administrative costs. In addition, the baseline
estimates presented here assume that emergency appropriations enacted
for 2005, largely in response to the Florida hurricanes, are one-time
only events. The BEA requires that the baseline assume funding for
emergencies repeatedly through the projection period.
[[Page 391]]
Alternative Formulations of Baseline
Throughout much of U.S. history, budget proposals were often compared
to either the President's request or the previous year's budget. In the
early 1970s, development of a baseline was pursued in attempt to provide
a more neutral benchmark for comparisons. The Congressional Budget Act
of 1974 included a requirement that OMB and the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) provide estimates of a current services baseline. The
definition of the baseline was very general and specific guidance was
not provided.
Since these estimates have been developed, current services for direct
spending programs and receipts were generally estimated based on laws
currently in place. Major direct spending programs were assumed to
continue past their expiration date. The initial budget enforcement
legislation, enacted in 1990, specifically required that programs sunset
on schedule in the baseline. This provision was subsequently amended to
require extension of most major direct spending programs. However, in
the case of receipts, the BEA requires only the extension of trust fund
excise taxes.
For discretionary programs, the proper definition of current services
was more ambiguous. OMB, for most accounts, applied an inflation
adjustment to the current year budgetary resource. However, numerous
exceptions were made to give a better picture of providing the same
services in the future. Programs that were clearly temporary in nature
were allowed to expire. Some programs were allowed to grow along a path
that reflected development of a project: design, followed by
construction, followed by operating expenses. CBO also made similar
adjustments to their estimates. In addition, they produced a baseline
that straightlined budgetary resources rather than apply an inflation
adjustment. With enactment of budget enforcement legislation in the
1990s, a precise definition of baseline for discretionary programs was
instituted and all discretionary programs were estimated based on
precise rules.
It is clear, however, that a number of baseline definitions could be
developed that differ for those presented in this chapter:
Extend provisions affecting parts of mandatory programs.
Currently, mandatory programs that have current year outlays
of over $50 million are generally assumed to continue.
However, provisions of law that affect parts of mandatory
programs, even those that have been consistently extended in
the past, are assumed to expire as scheduled.
Do not extend any authorizing laws that expire. If all
mandatory programs were assumed to expire as scheduled, the
deficit in 2005 would be $8 billion lower than the current
estimates and deficits for 2006 through 2010 would be $280
billion lower. (See the section below on major program
assumptions for details on mandatory program extensions
assumed in the estimates.) If excise taxes were allowed to
expire, the deficit would be $224 billion higher over the
period 2006 through 2010. If certain provisions of the 2001
and 2003 Tax Acts were assumed to expire, the deficit would be
$57 billion lower over the period.
Straightline appropriations. If all discretionary budgetary
resources were to be the same in each year in the projection
period as provided for the current year, total outlays would
be $14 lower in 2006 and $325 billion lower over the period
2006 through 2010.
Do not extend any appropriations. The current treatment of
expiring provisions is inconsistent with the treatment of
discretionary spending. All discretionary spending continues
whether there is authorization for the program or not and
whether funds have already been provided or not. In nearly all
cases, funds for discretionary programs have not been provided
in advance for years beyond the current year. If rules
consistent with the treatment of other expiring provisions
were applied to discretionary spending, no new budgetary
resources would be provided. Thus, under a strict ``current
law'' approach, the only discretionary outlays that would be
included in the baseline would be the lagged spending from the
current year budgetary resource. If this rule were followed,
outlays in 2006 would be reduced by $497 billion relative to
the current estimates. Clearly this would provide an
unrealistic estimate of future spending and the government's
future fiscal position.
Table 25-2 provides estimates for a variety of changes in baseline
definitions that could be considered.
[[Page 392]]
Table 25-2. ALTERNATIVE BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS \1\
(in billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006-2010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline surplus........... -390 -361 -303 -251 -229 -207 -1,351
Alternative assumptions (surplus
impact):
Extend provisions affecting parts -* -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -10
of mandatory programs...........
Do not extend any authorizing
laws:
Mandatory spending............. 8 21 22 72 79 86 280
Trust fund excise taxes........ ......... -32 -34 -49 -52 -56 -224
Certain provisions of the 2001 -* * * 10 33 14 57
and 2003 Tax Acts.............
Straightline appropriations...... ......... 14 36 62 91 121 325
Do not extend any appropriations. ......... 497 827 961 1,056 1,144 4,485
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Estimates provided here are the totals for the illustrative provisions shown in Table 25-5. This is not a
complete listing of all provisions that expire.
*500 million or less.
Economic Assumptions
The current services estimates are based on the same economic
assumptions as the President's Budget, which are based on enactment of
the President's Budget proposals. The economy and the budget interact.
Changes in economic conditions significantly alter the estimates of tax
receipts, unemployment benefits, entitlement payments that are
automatically adjusted for changes in cost-of-living (COLAs), income
support programs for low-income individuals, and interest on the Federal
debt. In turn, Government tax and spending policies influence prices,
economic growth, consumption, savings, and investment. Because of these
interactions, it would be reasonable, from an economic perspective, to
assume different economic paths for the current services baseline and
the President's Budget. However, this would diminish the value of
current services estimates as a benchmark for measuring proposed policy
changes, because it would then be difficult to separate the effects of
proposed policy changes from the effects of different economic
assumptions. By using the same economic assumptions for current services
and the President's Budget, this potential source of confusion is
eliminated. The economic assumptions underlying both the budget and the
current service estimates are summarized in Table 25-3. The economic
outlook underlying these assumptions is discussed in greater detail in
Chapter 12 of this volume.
Table 25-3. SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
(Fiscal years; dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars................................. 12,227 12,907 13,617 14,349 15,111 15,906
Real, chained (2000) dollars.................... 11,137 11,528 11,916 12,298 12,685 13,078
Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars................................. 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3
Real, chained (2000) dollars.................... 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1
Inflation measures (percent change, year over
year):
GDP chained price index......................... 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Consumer price index (all urban)................ 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Unemployment rate, civilian (percent)............... 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Interest rates (percent):
91-day Treasury bills............................. 2.4 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2
10-year Treasury notes............................ 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6
MEMORANDUM
Related program assumptions:
Automatic benefit increases (percent):
Social security and veterans pensions......... 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
Federal employee retirement................... 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
Food stamps................................... 5.8 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
Insured unemployment rate....................... 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 393]]
Major Programmatic Assumptions
A number of programmatic assumptions must be made in order to
calculate the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the
number of beneficiaries who will receive payments from the major benefit
programs and annual cost-of-living adjustments in the indexed programs.
Assumptions on baseline caseload projections for the major benefit
programs are shown in Table 25-4. Assumptions about various automatic
cost-of-living-adjustments are shown in Table 25-3.
Table 25-4. BENEFICIARY PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR BENEFIT PROGRAMS
(Annual average, in thousands)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2004 -----------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farmer direct payments.................... 1,596 1,856 1,840 1,826 1,822 1,811 1,811
Federal family education loans............ 6,612 6,972 6,892 6,584 6,927 7,286 7,658
Federal direct student loans.............. 2,152 2,275 2,303 2,312 2,425 2,543 2,667
Medicaid/State Children's Health Insurance 47,600 48,900 50,200 50,300 50,500 50,800 51,200
Program..................................
Medicare-eligible military retiree health 1,679 1,710 1,734 1,734 1,734 1,734 1,734
benefits.................................
Medicare:
Hospital insurance...................... 41,078 41,677 42,292 43,014 43,851 44,750 45,701
Supplementary medical insurance......... 38,706 39,237 39,751 40,339 41,051 41,822 42,615
Railroad retirement....................... 610 597 584 573 563 554 547
Federal civil service retirement.......... 2,393 2,421 2,455 2,487 2,519 2,551 2,586
Military retirement....................... 1,787 1,802 1,819 1,838 1,852 1,862 1,869
Unemployment compensation................. 8,770 8,610 8,970 9,070 9,240 9,340 9,420
Food stamps............................... 23,854 26,417 29,059 28,187 27,201 26,113 26,061
Child nutrition........................... 31,693 32,603 33,115 33,642 34,168 34,675 35,162
Foster care and adoption assistance....... 565 584 600 617 636 656 678
Supplemental security income (SSI):
Aged.................................... 1,133 1,118 1,107 1,102 1,100 1,099 1,099
Blind/disabled.......................... 5,533 5,703 5,913 6,071 6,165 6,230 6,291
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, SSI......................... 6,666 6,821 7,020 7,173 7,265 7,329 7,390
Child care and development fund (CCDF) \1\ 2,300 2,200 2,200 2,100 2,100 2,000 2,000
Social security (OASDI):
Old age and survivor insurance.......... 39,488 39,813 40,263 40,770 41,375 42,118 43,011
Disability insurance.................... 7,696 8,005 8,302 8,576 8,835 9,088 9,318
Veterans compensation:
Veterans................................ 2,518 2,594 2,688 2,818 2,911 2,979 3,069
Survivors (non-veterans)................ 316 328 335 343 351 359 368
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, veterans compensation....... 2,834 2,922 3,023 3,161 3,262 3,338 3,437
Veterans pensions:
Veterans................................ 343 336 330 323 317 311 305
Survivors (non-veterans)................ 219 210 203 195 188 181 174
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, veterans pensions......... 562 546 533 518 505 492 479
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes children served through the CCDF (including TANF transfers) and through funds spent directly on
child care in the Social Services Block Grant and TANF programs.
It is also necessary to make assumptions about the continuation of
expiring programs and provisions. In the estimates provided here,
expiring excise taxes dedicated to a trust fund are extended at current
rates. Certain income tax provisions from the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts,
that were not designed to be temporary in nature, are assumed to be
permanent for purposes of calculating revenue estimates. In general,
mandatory programs with current year spending of at least $50 million
are also assumed to continue. All discretionary programs with enacted
appropriations in the current year are assumed to continue. However,
specific provisions of law that affect mandatory programs (but are not
necessary for program operation) are allowed to expire as scheduled. For
example, medicaid transition assistance will expire at the end of March
2005. The baseline does not assume additional spending under this
authority beyond that point. Table 25-5 provides a listing of mandatory
programs and taxes assumed to continue in the baseline after their
expiration.
Many other important assumptions must be made in order to calculate
the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the timing and
substance of regulations that will be issued over the projection period,
the use of administrative discretion provided under current law, and
other assumptions about the way programs operate. Table 25-5 lists many
of these assumptions and their impact on the baseline estimates. It is
not intended to be an exhaustive listing; the variety and complexity of
Government programs are too great to provide a complete list. Instead,
some of the more important assumptions are shown.
[[Page 394]]
Table 25-5. IMPACT OF REGULATIONS, EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS, AND OTHER ASSUMPTIONS IN THE BASELINE
(In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Category -----------------------------------------------------------------
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGULATIONS
Foster care program:
Administrative claims for children in ......... -82 -87 -91 -96 -101
unlicensed relative homes..................
Old age and survivors insurance (OASI) and
disabilty insurance (DI):
Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency......... 18 26 27 18 5 -14
Reduction of Title II benefits under family 16 17 18 19 20 21
maximum in cases of dual entitlement.......
Trial work period........................... 4 3 3 2 1 1
Medicare, HI: \1\
Inpatient Rehabiliation Facilities.......... -50 -70 -70 -180 -230 -260
Inpatient Hospital Post-Acute Transfers..... ......... -740 -900 -960 -1,010 -1,080
Skilled Nursing Facility Case Mix Refinement ......... -1,520 -1,980 -2,040 -2,230 -2,360
Medicare, HI and SMI: \1\
Bad debt reimbursement...................... ......... -10 -50 -80 -90 -100
Supplemental security income (SSI):
Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency......... -12 -12 -6 -3 -7 -19
Title XVI cross-program recovery............ -30 -15 -15 -15 -15 -20
Student earned income exclusion............. 4 4 4 4 5 5
EPA Pesticides tolerance fee.................. ......... ......... ......... ......... -21 -22
EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS
Provisions extended in the baseline (effect of
extension):
Spending:
Child care entitlement to States............ ......... 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717
Child nutrition:
Summer food service program............... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 369
State administrative expenses............. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 184
CCC market access, bioenergy and commodity
programs:
Counter-cyclical payment program.......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 1,072 912
Dairy price support program............... ......... ......... ......... 50 50 50
Dairy export incentive program............ ......... ......... ......... 45 67 67
Direct payment program.................... ......... ......... ......... 2,621 5,303 5,303
Marketing assistance loan and loan ......... ......... ......... 1,042 132 88
deficiency payment program...............
Conservation reserve program................ ......... ......... ......... 2,319 2,505 2,506
Farm security and rural investment:
Conservation security program............. ......... ......... ......... 559 648 693
Environmental quality incentives program.. ......... ......... ......... 1,184 1,253 1,276
Farm and ranch lands protection program... ......... ......... ......... 91 96 97
Ground and surface water conservation..... ......... ......... ......... 68 63 62
Wildlife habitat incentives program....... ......... ......... ......... 77 83 85
Wetlands reserve program.................. ......... ......... ......... 287 281 279
Food stamps:
Benefit costs............................. ......... ......... ......... 32,728 32,248 33,061
State administrative expenses............. ......... ......... ......... 2,638 2,730 2,825
Employment and training................... ......... ......... ......... 308 317 321
Other program costs....................... ......... ......... ......... 60 61 63
Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico...... ......... ......... ......... 1,586 1,624 1,663
Food donations on Indian reservations..... ......... ......... ......... 83 85 87
The emergency food assistance program ......... ......... ......... 140 140 140
commodities..............................
Promoting safe and stable families.......... ......... ......... 305 305 305 305
Secure rural schools--payments to Oregon and ......... ......... ......... 117 118 120
California counties........................
Temporary assistance for needy families
(TANF) resources:
State family assistance grants (SFAG)..... 6,595 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489
SFAG to territories....................... 31 78 78 78 78 78
Matching grants to territories............ 6 15 15 15 15 15
Bonus to reward high performing States.... 1,000 ......... ......... ......... ......... 1,000
Bonus to reward decrease in illegitimacy.. 100 100 100 100 100 100
Tribal work program....................... 8 8 8 8 8 8
Census survey of program dynamics......... 5 10 10 10 10 10
Trade adjustment assistance--training and ......... ......... ......... 499 971 1,043
income support.............................
Trade adjustment assistance--farmers........ ......... ......... ......... 90 90 90
Veterans compensation--annual cost of living ......... 478 1,008 1,709 2,464 3,269
adjustment.................................
Revenues:
Excise taxes dedicated to trust funds:
Airport and Airway trust fund taxes....... ......... ......... ......... 11,897 12,566 13,271
Aquatic resources trust fund taxes........ ......... 319 328 336 346 355
Highway trust fund taxes.................. ......... 31,468 32,163 32,783 33,366 33,940
Certain provisions for the 2001 tax cut and 313 -48 -363 -9,647 -31,462 -11,901
2003 jobs and growth tax cut...............
[[Page 395]]
Provisions not extended in the baseline
(effect of extension):
Spending:
Biomass research and development............ ......... ......... ......... 14 14 14
EPA pesticides maintenance fee.............. ......... ......... ......... ......... -15 -15
Loans for broadband services in rural areas. ......... ......... ......... 1 6 9
Medicare, SMI:
Medicare low income premium assistance \2\ ......... 230 255 280 300 320
Medicaid:
Transition benefits \3\................... 221 488 524 554 580 601
Milk income loss contract program (CCC)..... ......... 600 600 600 600 600
TANF:
Supplemental grants....................... 128 319 319 319 319 319
Welfare research.......................... 7 15 15 15 15 15
Veterans programs:
Income verification match................. ......... ......... ......... ......... -6 -11
Contract disability medical exams......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 9 103
Native American veterans housing loans.... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... -1
Hybrid adjustable rate mortgages.......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 4 4
Enhanced loan asset sales................. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... -89
Loan guarantees for multifamily ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 11
transitional housing for homeless
veterans.................................
Wool research, development, and promotion... ......... ......... 2 2 2 2
OTHER IMPORTANT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS
Child support enforcement (CSE):
Alternative penalties for Family Support Act -208 -208 164 7 ......... .........
systems and Statewide Disbursement Unit
requirements...............................
Effect of enhanced rate of paternity testing 7 7 7 7 8 8
Food stamps:
Tax offset, recoupment, and general claims -154 -154 -154 -154 -154 -154
collection.................................
Quality control liabilities................. ......... -18 -18 -16 -12 -12
Allocation of administrative costs between -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197
public assistance programs.................
Medicare:
Medicare Advantage Risk Adjustment.......... ......... 2,200 2,100 1,800 1,400 800
Physicians.................................. 56,096 56,345 55,152 54,483 53,745 52,638
Prescription Drug Benefit \4\............... 1,155 45,846 64,839 70,905 77,417 84,328
Data Processing Improvement for Overpayments ......... -90 -100 -110 -120 -100
Contracting Reform.......................... ......... ......... ......... -70 -280 -550
Medicaid: \5\
Financial management recoveries............. -480 -491 -524 -570 -622 -678
Vaccines for Children, total program costs.. 1,635 1,502 1,271 1,259 1,280 1,309
Allocation of administrative costs between 471 509 549 593 640 692
public assistance programs.................
Institutional long term care................ 34,290 36,245 38,744 41,391 44,404 47,629
Home and community based institutional 20,273 23,078 25,766 28,630 31,893 35,381
alternatives...............................
Pharmaceuticals (FFS, net of rebates)....... 19,643 11,464 9,159 9,933 10,857 11,811
Managed care (including Medicaid MCOs, PHPs, 30,466 33,914 38,182 42,731 47,915 53,452
PCCM)......................................
State Children's Health Insurance Program 5,343 5,434 5,438 5,267 5,251 5,423
(Title XXI)..................................
Approved Demonstrations: \6\
Medicare, HI:
Mercy Medical SNF
Baseline estimate....................... 6 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 6 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Premier--Hospital Quality Incentive
Baseline estimate....................... 3,052 3,265 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 3,064 3,277 12 ......... ......... .........
Rural Community Hospital \7\
Baseline estimate....................... 63 66 69 73 76 80
Demonstration estimate.................. 67 79 83 87 91 90
New York Graduate Medical Education
Baseline estimate....................... 53 53 53 53 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 45 37 26 13 ......... .........
Utah Graduate Medical Education
Baseline estimate....................... 5 6 6 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 5 6 6 ......... ......... .........
Medicare, SMI:
Municipal Health
Baseline estimate....................... 20 22 6 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 39 43 12 ......... ......... .........
[[Page 396]]
Diabetes (Telemedicine)
Baseline estimate....................... 8 7 4 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 8 7 4 ......... ......... .........
United Mine Workers Program--Prescription
Drug Benefits \8\
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 120 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Smoking Cessation
Baseline estimate....................... * ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. * ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
BIPA Disease Management
Baseline estimate....................... 1,134 1,279 640 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1,134 1,279 639 ......... ......... .........
Case Management/Lovelace
Baseline estimate....................... 2 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 2 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Coordinated Care
Baseline estimate....................... 188 95 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 163 82 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare Replacement Drug
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 400 100 ......... ......... ......... .........
Disease Management for Chronically Ill
Dual Beneficiaries (Lifemasters)
Baseline estimate....................... 280 603 634 152 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 251 541 568 136 ......... .........
Medicare Lifestyle Modification Program
Baseline estimate....................... 1 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Influenza Medication
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 200 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
United Mine Workers Program--Health
Benefits
Baseline estimate....................... 442 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 411 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Oncology/quality of care
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 200 100 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare, HI and SMI:
Evercare
Baseline estimate....................... 88 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 88 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Home Health Third Party Liability
Baseline estimate....................... 110 85 62 59 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 110 85 62 59 ......... .........
Homebound
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 9 10 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare+Choice Phase I
Baseline estimate....................... 137 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 141 3 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare+Choice Phase II
Baseline estimate....................... 1,215 350 28 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1,310 395 30 ......... ......... .........
SHMO-ESRD
Baseline estimate....................... 18 5 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 20 6 ......... ......... ......... .........
S/HMO I--Medicare
Baseline estimate....................... 925 969 1,010 336 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1,160 1,210 1,260 425 ......... .........
S/HMO II--Medicare
Baseline estimate....................... 440 461 480 160 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 550 575 600 195 ......... .........
Physician Group Practice
Baseline estimate....................... 1,216 1,680 1,761 445 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1,181 1,596 1,634 450 77 .........
Medicaid: \6\
Alabama Family Planning................... 92 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arizona AHCCCS............................ 2,929 3,300 ......... ......... ......... .........
[[Page 397]]
Arkansas (ARKids B)....................... 59 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Arkansas Family Planning Services......... 207 35 ......... ......... ......... .........
Arkansas Cash & Counseling................ 9 9 2 ......... ......... .........
Arkansas TEFRA............................ 28 30 32 8 ......... .........
California Family Planning................ 53 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
California In-Home Supportive Services 242 280 325 378 357 .........
Plus.....................................
California--LA County \9\................. 65 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Colorado Consumer Directed Attendant 14 17 19 3 ......... .........
Support..................................
Delaware--Diamond State Health Plan....... 456 504 129 ......... ......... .........
District of Columbia HIV.................. 5 8 11 14 4 .........
District of Columbia Childless Adults 50- 5 5 3 ......... ......... .........
64.......................................
Florida Cash & Counseling................. 53 57 61 26 ......... .........
Hawaii Health QUEST....................... 277 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Illinois Family Planning.................. 339 362 387 414 ......... .........
Kentucky Health Care Partnership Program.. 378 33 ......... ......... ......... .........
Maine HIV................................. 8 9 7 ......... ......... .........
Maryland (Health Choice).................. 929 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Massachusetts MassHealth.................. 1,885 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Minnesota (Prepaid Med. Assist. Project 101 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Plus)....................................
Mississippi Family Planning............... 122 134 146 ......... ......... .........
Mississippi--Healthier Mississippi........ 59 65 71 78 86 .........
Missouri Managed Care Plus................ 205 204 86 ......... ......... .........
Montana Basic Medicaid for Able-Bodied 29 32 35 39 13 .........
Adults...................................
New Jersey Cash & Counseling.............. 4 4 5 3 ......... .........
New Mexico--Family Planning Expansion..... 9 11 ......... ......... ......... .........
New York (Partnership Plan)............... 9,753 5,252 ......... ......... ......... .........
Oklahoma Sooner Care...................... 843 906 230 ......... ......... .........
Oregon Family Planning.................... 65 76 6 ......... ......... .........
Oregon Independent Choices................ 2 3 * ......... ......... .........
Rhode Island Rite Care (Medicaid)......... 111 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
South Carolina Family Planning............ 10 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
TennCare II............................... 3,488 3,865 3,124 ......... ......... .........
Utah (Primary Care Network)............... 87 97 79 ......... ......... .........
Vermont Health Access Plan................ 204 218 57 ......... ......... .........
Virginia--Family Planning................. 165 171 176 ......... ......... .........
Washington (Take Charge/Family Planning).. 200 160 ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin Badger Care (Medicaid).......... 40 42 18 ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin Family Planning................. 28 34 40 10 ......... .........
Pharmacy Plus (demonstration estimate):
\10\
Wisconsin Pharmacy Plus................. 183 218 260 ......... ......... .........
Florida Pharmacy Plus................... 95 105 93 ......... ......... .........
Illinois Pharmacy Plus.................. 298 357 277 ......... ......... .........
South Carolina Pharmacy Plus............ 153 179 208 52 ......... .........
State Children's Health Insurance Program
(Title XXI) (demonstration estimates): \10\
Alaska.................................... 9 9 10 ......... ......... .........
Maryland Health Choice \11\............... 121 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Minnesota Care............................ 47 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Missouri MC+c \11\........................ 93 108 117 ......... ......... .........
New Jersey FamilyCare \12\................ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
New Mexico SCHIP \11\..................... 24 25 26 ......... ......... .........
Rhode Island (SCHIP RiteCare)............. 10 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin (BadgerCare).................... 123 132 142 ......... ......... .........
Health Insurance Flexibility and
Accountability (HIFA) (demonstration
estimate):
Arizona HIFA (SCHIP funds)................ 41 43 ......... ......... ......... .........
Colorado HIFA (SCHIP funds)............... 4 11 ......... ......... ......... .........
Idaho HIFA................................ 20 23 25 26 24 .........
Illinois HIFA (KidCare Parent Coverage)
Baseline estimate (Medicaid funds)...... 5 5 6 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 129 180 191 ......... ......... .........
Maine HIFA (Maine Care for Childless
Adults--Medicaid funds)
Baseline estimate....................... 102 102 102 ......... ......... .........
Michigan HIFA............................. 110 112 117 123 31 .........
Oregon HIFA (Oregon Health Plan 2)
Baseline estimate (Medicaid funds)...... 1,349 1,467 1,603 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 18 15 16 ......... ......... .........
[[Page 398]]
Joint Medicare and Medicaid:
Minnesota-Dual Eligibles
Baseline estimate....................... 154 174 194 54 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 160 180 200 55 ......... .........
Wisconsin-Dual Eligibles
Baseline estimate....................... 130 176 45 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 130 176 45 ......... ......... .........
Massachusetts--Dual Eligibles
Demonstration estimate.................. 20 28 34 9 ......... .........
Baseline estimate....................... 21 29 35 9 ......... .........
OASI, DI, SSI:
Performance of continuing disability reviews -105 -525 -1,030 -1,630 -2,230 -2,845
(baseline levels) (OASI, DI, SSI)..........
OASDI:
Payments to states for vocational 80 104 112 121 130 138
rehabilitation...........................
DI:
Research and demonstration projects....... 17 42 55 27 ......... .........
SSI:
Payments from states for state -4,318 -4,520 -4,755 -4,895 -5,060 -5,224
supplemental benefits....................
Payments for state supplemental benefits.. 4,650 4,520 4,355 4,885 5,045 5,210
Fees for administration of State
supplement:
Treasury share.......................... -142 -142 -145 -146 -148 -149
SSA share............................... -124 -131 -128 -128 -129 -129
Research and demonstration projects....... 44 46 27 26 27 27
Payments to states for vocational 52 67 71 76 81 84
rehabilitation.............................
Performance of non-disability -310 -990 -1,340 -1,440 -1,510 -1,590
redeterminations...........................
State grants and demonstrations--health care:
Ticket to work grant programs:
Infrastructure grant program.............. 15 17 17 20 20 32
Demonstration to maintain independence and 28 21 21 22 22 10
employment...............................
High risk pools:
Initial seed grants....................... 1 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Operation of pools........................ 22 40 ......... ......... ......... .........
Emergency health services for undocumented 63 250 250 250 187 .........
aliens.....................................
Pilot program for national and state 9 8 8 ......... ......... .........
background checks..........................
State pharmaceutical assistance programs.... 62 63 ......... ......... ......... .........
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* = $500,000 or less.
NA = Not available.
\1\ Medicare regulations reflect gross outlays.
\2\ Current law extends program through September 30, 2005.
\3\ Current law extends program through March 31, 2005.
\4\ Net mandatory outlays.
\5\ Not shown on table are anticipated collections from various state liabilities under current law.
\6\ Baseline estimates reflect costs absent the demonstration; demonstration estimate reflects costs of the
demonstration. The differences represent the net impact of the demonstration.
\7\ Costs of this demonstration are offset annually by a reduction to inpatient hospital prospective payment
rates.
\8\ Estimate for 2006 is currently unavailable.
\9\ Budget modified from original agreement for phase-out of waiver funding.
\10\ Beginning in 2006, Pharmacy Plus estimates may be affected by Part D.
\11\ Estimates reflect costs for SCHIP children under the State's Medicaid 1115.
\12\ For 2005 and 2006, the state will revert to Medicaid funds for this demonstration.
[[Page 399]]
Current Services Receipts, Outlays, and Budget Authority
Receipts.--Table 25-6 shows baseline receipts by major source. Total
receipts are projected to increase by $125 billion from 2005 to 2006 and
by $663 billion from 2006 to 2010, largely due to assumed increases in
incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation.
Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $71 billion from
2005 to 2006 under current law. This growth of 7.9 percent is primarily
the effect of increased collections resulting from rising personal
incomes. Individual income taxes are projected to grow at an annual rate
of 9.0 percent between 2006 and 2010.
Corporation income taxes under current law are estimated to decline by
$4 billion or 1.6 percent between 2005 and 2006, in large part due to
the timing and magnitude of tax changes provided in the 2003 jobs and
growth tax cut. Corporation income taxes are projected to increase at an
annual rate of 4.8 percent from 2006 to 2010, reflecting higher
corporate profits.
Social insurance and retirement receipts are estimated to increase by
$45 billion between 2005 and 2006, and by an additional $198 billion
between 2006 and 2010. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total
wages and salaries paid, and scheduled increases in the social security
taxable earnings base from $90,000 in 2005 to $111,300 in 2010.
Excise taxes are estimated to increase by $9 billion from 2005 to
2010, in large part due to increased economic activity. Other baseline
receipts (estate and gift taxes, customs duties, and miscellaneous
receipts) are projected to increase by $26 billion from 2005 to 2010.
Table 25-6. BASELINE RECEIPTS BY SOURCE
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2004 -----------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes............ 809.0 893.9 964.8 1,070.0 1,170.5 1,252.1 1,361.5
Corporation income taxes........... 189.4 226.6 222.9 234.2 251.5 263.3 268.9
Social insurance and retirement 733.4 773.7 818.8 866.2 911.7 959.2 1,016.9
receipts..........................
On-budget........................ 198.7 212.4 225.6 237.0 247.2 258.6 273.7
Off-budget....................... 534.7 561.4 593.2 629.2 664.6 700.7 743.2
Excise taxes....................... 69.9 73.9 75.5 77.2 79.1 81.1 83.0
Other.............................. 78.5 84.9 95.8 99.5 105.5 112.3 110.7
Total.............................. 1,880.1 2,053.0 2,177.9 2,347.2 2,518.3 2,668.0 2,841.0
On-budget........................ 1,345.3 1,491.6 1,584.7 1,718.0 1,853.8 1,967.3 2,097.8
Off-budget....................... 534.7 561.4 593.2 629.2 664.6 700.7 743.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 400]]
Outlays.--Current services outlays are estimated to grow from $2,443
billion in 2005 to $2,539 billion in 2006, a 3.8 percent increase.
Between 2005 and 2010, they are projected to increase at an average
annual rate of 4.5 percent. Because the baseline assumes no spending for
the war beyond what is already enacted, outlays for discretionary
programs decline from $930 billion in 2005 to $914 billion in 2006. The
assumed decline in spending for the war more than offsets increases to
keep pace with inflation. Discretionary outlays increase each year from
2006 through 2010, reflecting increases in resources to keep pace with
inflation, reaching $986 billion in 2010. Entitlement and other
mandatory programs are estimated to grow from $1,336 billion in 2005 to
$1,416 billion in 2006, and to $1,752 billion in 2010, due in large part
to changes in the number of beneficiaries and to automatic cost-of-
living adjustments and other adjustments for inflation. Social security
outlays grow from $515 billion in 2005 to $666 billion in 2010, an
average annual rate of 5.3 percent. Medicare and medicaid are projected
to grow at annual average rates of 7.1 and 9.7 percent, respectively,
outpacing inflation. Other areas of growth are federal employee
retirement (average rate of 4.5 percent) and unemployment compensation
(5.3 percent). Offsetting growth in other areas, after surging in 2005
spending for farm programs is nearly halved between 2005 and 2010,
reflecting anticipated changes in market supply and demand.
Net interest payments to the public total $177 billion in 2005 and
$209 billion in 2006. They rise each year reaching $310 billion in 2010.
This pattern reflects increased borrowing requirements as well as
changes in the mix of debt issuance and interest rates over the period.
Tables 25-8 and 25-9 show current services outlays by function and by
agency, respectively. A more detailed presentation of outlays (by
function, subfunction, category, and program) appears on the CD-ROM that
accompanies this volume.
Budget authority.--Tables 25-10 and 25-11 show current services
estimates of budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. A
more detailed presentation of budget authority with program level
estimates appears on the CD-ROM that accompanies this volume.
Table 25-7. CHANGE IN BASELINE OUTLAY ESTIMATES BY CATEGORY
(Dollar amounts In billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change 2005 to 2006 Change 2005 to 2010
--------------------------------------------
2005 2006 2010 Average
Amount Percent Amount Annual
Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
Discretionary:
DoD-Military.......................................................... 443.1 416.7 453.0 -26.3 -5.9% 9.9 0.4%
Homeland security..................................................... 30.2 33.1 36.0 3.0 9.9% 5.9 3.6%
Other discretionary................................................... 456.8 464.3 497.0 7.5 1.6% 40.2 1.7%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary................................................. 930.0 914.2 986.0 -15.9 -1.7% 56.0 1.2%
Mandatory:
Farm programs......................................................... 25.2 21.0 12.5 -4.1 -16.5% -12.6 -13.0%
Medicaid.............................................................. 188.3 192.6 265.4 4.3 2.3% 77.1 7.1%
Medicare.............................................................. 290.3 340.2 460.3 49.9 17.2% 170.0 9.7%
Federal employee retirement
and disability...................................................... 94.1 98.9 117.4 4.8 5.1% 23.3 4.5%
Unemployment compensation............................................. 35.4 37.0 45.8 1.6 4.4% 10.4 5.3%
Other income security programs........................................ 167.8 171.0 181.8 3.3 1.9% 14.1 1.6%
Social Security....................................................... 515.1 540.1 665.5 25.0 4.9% 150.5 5.3%
Other mandatory programs.............................................. 78.0 81.7 84.0 3.7 4.8% 6.0 1.5%
Credit subsidy reestimates............................................ 6.7 ......... ......... -6.7 NA -6.7 NA
Undistributed offsetting receipts..................................... -65.0 -66.8 -81.0 -1.8 2.8% -16.0 4.5%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory..................................................... 1,335.9 1,415.7 1,751.9 79.8 6.0% 416.1 5.6%
Net interest............................................................ 177.5 209.3 309.8 31.8 17.9% 132.3 11.8%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays............................................................. 2,443.4 2,539.1 3,047.8 95.7 3.9% 604.4 4.5%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 401]]
Table 25-8. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2004 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military............................ 436.5 443.9 418.6 417.9 429.8 441.2 455.1
Other...................................................... 19.4 22.0 21.9 22.2 22.2 22.6 23.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense.................................... 455.9 465.9 440.6 440.1 451.9 463.9 478.2
International affairs........................................ 26.9 32.0 37.3 33.9 33.1 30.9 31.3
General science, space, and technology....................... 23.1 24.0 24.3 25.1 25.7 26.3 26.8
Energy....................................................... -0.2 1.4 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.1
Natural resources and environment............................ 30.7 31.0 32.8 34.0 34.6 35.7 36.7
Agriculture.................................................. 15.4 30.5 26.8 24.3 21.6 19.7 19.3
Commerce and housing credit.................................. 5.3 10.7 8.2 2.4 1.7 0.4 -0.2
On-Budget.................................................. (9.4) (11.7) (7.3) (6.0) (6.0) (4.7) (4.5)
Off-Budget................................................. (-4.1) (-1.0) (1.0) (-3.5) (-4.3) (-4.3) (-4.8)
Transportation............................................... 64.6 68.6 72.3 73.1 74.2 75.8 77.6
Community and regional development........................... 15.8 20.1 19.4 18.1 16.9 15.5 15.3
Education, training, employment, and social services......... 87.9 95.7 86.8 91.7 92.9 94.6 96.7
Health....................................................... 240.1 257.3 266.0 280.6 301.2 323.3 346.9
Medicare..................................................... 269.4 295.4 344.8 385.6 410.8 437.2 464.9
Income security.............................................. 332.8 350.9 360.5 365.9 379.2 388.7 400.9
Social security.............................................. 495.5 519.7 544.7 571.4 600.7 635.0 670.8
On-Budget.................................................. (14.3) (16.4) (16.1) (17.7) (20.5) (21.4) (23.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (481.2) (503.3) (528.6) (553.7) (580.2) (613.6) (647.7)
Veterans benefits and services............................... 59.8 68.2 69.0 69.6 75.6 78.8 82.3
Administration of justice.................................... 45.5 40.7 42.7 42.9 43.8 46.1 47.6
General government........................................... 21.8 18.8 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.0
Net interest................................................. 160.2 177.5 209.3 242.1 269.0 290.7 309.8
On-Budget.................................................. (246.5) (269.5) (307.4) (348.8) (386.0) (419.4) (451.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (-86.2) (-92.0) (-98.1) (-106.7) (-117.0) (-128.7) (-141.4)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............ -42.1 -48.1 -48.2 -50.3 -52.9 -55.5 -58.2
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)........... -11.3 -10.9 -11.4 -11.8 -12.5 -13.2 -13.9
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf......... -5.1 -5.9 -7.1 -6.7 -6.8 -7.1 -7.3
Sale of major assets....................................... ........... ........... ........... -0.3 ........... ........... ...........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts.................... ........... -0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -13.3 -12.4 -1.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts................... -58.5 -65.0 -66.8 -71.5 -85.4 -88.2 -81.0
On-Budget................................................ (-47.2) (-54.1) (-55.5) (-59.7) (-72.9) (-75.0) (-67.1)
Off-Budget............................................... (-11.3) (-10.9) (-11.4) (-11.8) (-12.5) (-13.2) (-13.9)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,292.2 2,443.4 2,539.1 2,650.1 2,769.6 2,896.8 3,047.8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Budget.................................................. (1,912.7) (2,044.0) (2,119.0) (2,218.4) (2,323.2) (2,429.5) (2,560.1)
Off-Budget................................................. (379.5) (399.4) (420.1) (431.7) (446.5) (467.3) (487.6)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 402]]
Table 25-9. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2004 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch........................................... 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5
Judicial Branch.............................................. 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6
Agriculture.................................................. 71.8 94.9 96.4 94.0 92.8 91.9 93.7
Commerce..................................................... 5.8 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4
Defense--Military............................................ 437.1 444.1 418.7 417.9 429.8 441.2 455.1
Education.................................................... 62.8 70.4 61.2 65.7 66.3 67.2 68.8
Energy....................................................... 20.0 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.7
Health and Human Services.................................... 543.4 585.5 642.5 697.1 742.2 790.4 841.4
Homeland Security............................................ 26.5 33.3 34.1 32.8 33.4 32.8 32.9
Housing and Urban Development................................ 45.0 42.6 39.3 38.8 38.1 37.8 37.7
Interior..................................................... 8.9 9.4 10.2 10.9 10.8 11.2 11.6
Justice...................................................... 29.0 21.2 23.5 23.7 24.0 25.6 26.4
Labor........................................................ 56.7 50.0 51.7 53.8 56.4 59.4 62.2
State........................................................ 10.9 11.9 13.3 14.1 14.0 13.6 13.6
Transportation............................................... 54.5 58.4 61.5 62.2 62.8 64.0 65.4
Treasury..................................................... 374.8 402.5 444.3 490.6 533.0 571.5 609.2
Veterans Affairs............................................. 59.6 68.0 68.9 69.5 75.5 78.7 82.2
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works.............................. 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.3
Other Defense Civil Programs................................. 41.7 43.5 44.5 45.5 46.6 47.3 47.7
Environmental Protection Agency.............................. 8.3 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.8 8.8 9.0
Executive Office of the President............................ 3.3 5.8 7.2 1.9 -2.3 -3.9 0.4
General Services Administration.............................. -0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
International Assistance Programs............................ 13.7 14.8 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.9 17.3
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................ 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.5 17.9
National Science Foundation.................................. 5.1 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.0
Office of Personnel Management............................... 56.5 61.0 64.5 67.4 70.7 73.9 77.4
Small Business Administration................................ 4.1 3.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Social Security Administration............................... 530.2 559.0 583.5 608.6 642.6 677.5 715.8
On-Budget.................................................. (49.0) (55.8) (54.9) (54.9) (62.4) (63.9) (68.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (481.2) (503.3) (528.6) (553.7) (580.2) (613.6) (647.7)
Other Independent Agencies................................... 5.9 19.7 20.6 15.0 14.8 14.8 14.8
On-Budget.................................................. (10.0) (20.7) (19.6) (18.5) (19.0) (19.1) (19.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (-4.1) (-1.0) (1.0) (-3.5) (-4.3) (-4.3) (-4.8)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................ -212.5 -228.4 -238.3 -253.1 -277.2 -296.1 -309.1
On-Budget.................................................. (-115.0) (-125.5) (-128.8) (-134.6) (-147.7) (-154.1) (-153.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (-97.6) (-102.9) (-109.5) (-118.5) (-129.5) (-141.9) (-155.3)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,292.2 2,443.4 2,539.1 2,650.1 2,769.6 2,896.8 3,047.8
On-Budget.................................................. (1,912.7) (2,044.0) (2,119.0) (2,218.4) (2,323.2) (2,429.5) (2,560.1)
Off-Budget................................................. (379.5) (399.4) (420.1) (431.7) (446.5) (467.3) (487.6)
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[[Page 403]]
Table 25-10. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2004 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military............................ 471.0 402.0 412.9 424.5 436.7 449.1 462.0
Other...................................................... 19.6 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense.................................... 490.6 423.6 434.6 446.5 459.0 471.9 485.2
International affairs........................................ 45.2 25.8 28.2 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.0
General science, space, and technology....................... 23.4 24.4 24.8 25.4 26.1 26.6 27.2
Energy....................................................... 3.2 1.3 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.5
Natural resources and environment............................ 32.7 32.2 32.5 34.0 34.7 36.1 37.3
Agriculture.................................................. 32.7 29.1 26.6 24.1 21.3 19.4 19.0
Commerce and housing credit.................................. 14.2 14.4 15.6 13.6 14.0 13.1 12.8
On-Budget.................................................. (12.1) (13.6) (11.8) (13.0) (13.4) (12.5) (12.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (2.1) (0.9) (3.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.5) (0.1)
Transportation............................................... 71.1 72.4 66.0 66.4 67.0 67.9 68.7
Community and regional development........................... 18.1 23.0 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.6
Education, training, employment, and social services......... 92.0 96.3 92.8 92.8 94.7 96.7 98.9
Health....................................................... 252.3 255.8 288.7 283.6 304.4 329.4 351.8
Medicare..................................................... 271.7 294.3 344.7 385.4 410.8 437.7 464.6
Income security.............................................. 334.2 345.5 356.7 365.0 378.3 388.3 404.5
Social security.............................................. 496.0 520.2 546.7 573.5 603.0 637.7 673.6
On-Budget.................................................. (14.3) (16.4) (16.1) (17.7) (20.5) (21.4) (23.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (481.7) (503.8) (530.6) (555.8) (582.5) (616.3) (650.5)
Veterans benefits and services............................... 60.5 67.6 68.9 72.9 76.3 79.6 83.2
Administration of justice.................................... 45.7 39.9 42.6 42.7 44.1 46.6 48.2
General government........................................... 23.2 18.1 18.6 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.0
Net interest................................................. 160.2 177.5 209.3 242.1 269.0 290.7 309.8
On-Budget.................................................. (246.4) (269.5) (307.4) (348.8) (386.0) (419.4) (451.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (-86.2) (-92.0) (-98.1) (-106.7) (-117.0) (-128.7) (-141.4)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... 1.2 1.2 ........... ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............ -42.1 -48.1 -48.2 -50.3 -52.9 -55.5 -58.2
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)........... -11.3 -10.9 -11.4 -11.8 -12.5 -13.2 -13.9
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf......... -5.1 -5.9 -7.1 -6.7 -6.8 -7.1 -7.3
Sale of major assets....................................... ........... ........... ........... -0.3 ........... ........... ...........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts.................... ........... -0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -13.3 -12.4 -1.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts................... -58.5 -65.0 -66.8 -71.5 -85.4 -88.2 -81.0
On-Budget................................................ (-47.2) (-54.1) (-55.5) (-59.7) (-72.9) (-75.0) (-67.1)
Off-Budget............................................... (-11.3) (-10.9) (-11.4) (-11.8) (-12.5) (-13.2) (-13.9)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,408.3 2,396.5 2,548.0 2,665.1 2,788.5 2,925.2 3,078.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Budget.................................................. (2,022.1) (1,994.7) (2,123.1) (2,227.2) (2,335.0) (2,450.3) (2,582.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (386.2) (401.8) (424.9) (437.9) (453.6) (474.9) (495.2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMORANDUM
Discretionary budget authority:
National defense........................................... 485.7 421.3 431.7 443.7 456.2 469.1 482.4
International.............................................. 49.3 29.6 30.2 30.9 31.6 32.4 33.2
Domestic................................................... 372.6 384.5 384.7 396.4 407.6 419.2 430.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, discretionary......................................... 907.6 835.4 846.5 871.0 895.5 920.7 946.0
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[[Page 404]]
Table 25-11. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2004 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch........................................... 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7
Judicial Branch.............................................. 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8
Agriculture.................................................. 93.1 94.7 98.9 97.8 95.9 95.2 97.1
Commerce..................................................... 5.9 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6
Defense--Military............................................ 471.9 402.0 412.9 424.5 436.7 449.1 462.0
Education.................................................... 67.2 70.9 66.9 66.4 67.7 69.1 70.6
Energy....................................................... 22.1 21.5 22.5 23.0 24.0 24.6 25.2
Health and Human Services.................................... 556.7 581.6 662.3 698.7 744.4 793.3 847.2
Homeland Security............................................ 32.5 38.3 30.1 30.8 31.8 35.0 33.8
Housing and Urban Development................................ 35.1 35.5 35.4 35.9 36.6 37.5 38.4
Interior..................................................... 10.5 9.9 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.7
Justice...................................................... 27.4 21.6 23.6 23.4 24.1 25.9 26.7
Labor........................................................ 56.9 50.7 52.2 54.0 56.6 59.2 61.9
State........................................................ 12.0 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.6
Transportation............................................... 60.5 61.7 55.4 55.2 55.5 55.9 56.3
Treasury..................................................... 375.9 403.7 445.7 491.8 534.1 572.9 610.6
Veterans Affairs............................................. 60.3 67.5 68.7 72.7 76.2 79.5 83.1
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works.............................. 4.7 5.1 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3
Other Defense Civil Programs................................. 41.8 43.6 44.6 45.7 46.7 47.5 47.9
Environmental Protection Agency.............................. 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.1
Executive Office of the President............................ 18.8 0.4 0.3 -1.1 -4.6 -3.9 0.4
General Services Administration.............................. 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
International Assistance Programs............................ 15.7 14.1 15.4 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................ 15.4 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.1
National Science Foundation.................................. 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2
Office of Personnel Management............................... 59.9 63.9 67.4 70.4 73.9 77.5 81.2
Small Business Administration................................ 4.2 3.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Social Security Administration............................... 531.6 558.9 584.7 611.1 644.9 680.2 718.7
On-Budget.................................................. (49.9) (55.0) (54.1) (55.3) (62.4) (64.0) (68.2)
Off-Budget................................................. (481.7) (503.8) (530.6) (555.8) (582.5) (616.3) (650.5)
Other Independent Agencies................................... 17.2 17.8 24.1 22.3 22.9 23.0 23.1
On-Budget.................................................. (15.2) (17.0) (20.4) (21.8) (22.3) (22.4) (23.1)
Off-Budget................................................. (2.1) (0.9) (3.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.5) (0.1)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... 1.2 1.2 ........... ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................ -212.5 -228.4 -238.3 -253.1 -277.2 -296.1 -309.1
On-Budget.................................................. (-115.0) (-125.5) (-128.8) (-134.6) (-147.7) (-154.1) (-153.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (-97.6) (-102.9) (-109.5) (-118.5) (-129.5) (-141.9) (-155.3)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,408.3 2,396.5 2,548.0 2,665.1 2,788.5 2,925.2 3,078.0
On-Budget.................................................. (2,022.1) (1,994.7) (2,123.1) (2,227.2) (2,335.0) (2,450.3) (2,582.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (386.2) (401.8) (424.9) (437.9) (453.6) (474.9) (495.2)
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