[Analytical Perspectives]
[Crosscutting Programs]
[6. Federal Investment]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]


[[Page 63]]

 
                         6.  FEDERAL INVESTMENT

  Investment spending is spending that yields long-term benefits. Its 
purpose may be to improve the efficiency of internal Federal agency 
operations or to increase the Nation's overall stock of capital for 
economic growth. The spending can be direct Federal spending or grants 
to State and local governments. It can be for physical capital, which 
yields a stream of services over a period of years, or for research and 
development or education and training, which are intangible but also 
increase income in the future or provide other long-term benefits.
  Most presentations in the Federal budget combine investment spending 
with spending for current use. This chapter focuses solely on Federal 
and federally financed investment.
  In this chapter, investment is discussed in the following sections:
    a description of the size and composition of Federal 
          investment spending;
    a discussion of the performance of selected Federal 
          investment programs; and
    a presentation of trends in the stock of federally financed 
          physical capital, research and development, and education.
  Two sections that appeared in this chapter last year, ``Alternative 
Capital Budget and Capital Expenditure Presentations'' and 
``Supplemental Physical Capital Information'', are not included this 
year, primarily because the information in these sections changes little 
from year to year, and the reader may refer to earlier budgets for this 
information or analysis.

               PART I.  DESCRIPTION OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT

  For more than fifty years, the Federal budget has included a chapter 
on Federal investment--defined as those outlays that yield long-term 
benefits--separately from outlays for current use. In recent years the 
discussion of the composition of investment has displayed estimates of 
budget authority as well as outlays.
  The classification of spending between investment and current outlays 
is a matter of judgment. The budget has historically employed a 
relatively broad classification, encompassing physical investment, 
research, development, education, and training. The budget further 
classifies investments into those that are grants to State and local 
governments, such as grants for highways or education, and all other 
investments, called ``direct Federal programs,'' in this analysis. This 
``direct Federal'' category consists primarily of spending for assets 
owned by the Federal Government, such as defense weapons systems and 
general purpose office buildings, but also includes grants to private 
organizations and individuals for investment, such as capital grants to 
Amtrak or higher education loans directly to individuals.
  Presentations for particular purposes could adopt different 
definitions of investment:
    To suit the purposes of a traditional balance sheet, 
          investment might include only those physical assets owned by 
          the Federal Government, excluding capital financed through 
          grants and intangible assets such as research and education.
    Focusing on the role of investment in improving national 
          productivity and enhancing economic growth would exclude items 
          such as national defense assets, the direct benefits of which 
          enhance national security rather than economic growth.
    Concern with the efficiency of Federal operations would 
          confine the coverage to investments that reduce costs or 
          improve the effectiveness of internal Federal agency 
          operations, such as computer systems.
    A ``social investment'' perspective might broaden the 
          coverage of investment beyond what is included in this chapter 
          to include programs such as childhood immunization, maternal 
          health, certain nutrition programs, and substance abuse 
          treatment, which are designed in part to prevent more costly 
          health problems in future years.
  The relatively broad definition of investment used in this section 
provides consistency over time--historical figures on investment outlays 
back to 1940 can be found in the separate Historical Tables volume. 
Table 6-2 at the end of this section allows disaggregation of the data 
to focus on those investment outlays that best suit a particular 
purpose.
  In addition to this basic issue of definition, there are two technical 
problems in the classification of investment data involving the 
treatment of grants to State and local governments and the 
classification of spending that could be shown in more than one 
category.
  First, for some grants to State and local governments it is the 
recipient jurisdiction, not the Federal Government, that ultimately 
determines whether the money is used to finance investment or current 
purposes. This analysis classifies all of the outlays in the category 
where the recipient jurisdictions are expected to spend most of the 
money. Hence, the community development block grants are classified as 
physical investment, although some may be spent for current purposes. 
Gen

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eral purpose fiscal assistance is classified as current spending, 
although some may be spent by recipient jurisdictions on physical 
investment.
  Second, some spending could be classified in more than one category of 
investment. For example, outlays for construction of research facilities 
finance the acquisition of physical assets, but they also contribute to 
research and development. To avoid double counting, the outlays are 
classified in the category that is most commonly recognized as 
investment. Consequently outlays for the conduct of research and 
development do not include outlays for research facilities, because 
these outlays are included in the category for physical investment. 
Similarly, physical investment and research and development related to 
education and training are included in the categories of physical assets 
and the conduct of research and development.
  When direct loans and loan guarantees are used to fund investment, the 
subsidy value is included as investment. The subsidies are classified 
according to their program purpose, such as construction or education 
and training. For more information about the treatment of Federal credit 
programs, refer to Chapter 25, ``The Budget System and Concepts,'' in 
this volume.
  This section presents spending for gross investment, without adjusting 
for depreciation.

                Composition of Federal Investment Outlays

Major Federal Investment

  The composition of major Federal investment outlays is summarized in 
Table 6-1. They include major public physical investment, the conduct of 
research and development, and the conduct of education and training. 
Defense and nondefense investment outlays were $345.2 billion in 2003. 
They are estimated to increase to $376.7 billion in 2004 and are 
projected to increase further to $390.0 billion in 2005. Major Federal 
investment outlays will comprise an estimated 16 percent of total 
Federal outlays in 2005 and 3.2 percent of the Nation's gross domestic 
product (GDP). Greater detail on Federal investment is available in 
Table 6-2 at the end of this section. That table includes both budget 
authority and outlays.
  Physical investment. Outlays for major public physical capital 
investment (hereafter referred to as physical investment outlays) are 
estimated to be $179.8 billion in 2005. Physical investment outlays are 
for construction and rehabilitation, the purchase of major equipment, 
and the purchase or sale of land and structures. More than three-fifths 
of these outlays are for direct physical investment by the Federal 
Government, with the remainder being grants to State and local 
governments for physical investment.
  Direct physical investment outlays by the Federal Government are 
primarily for national defense. Defense outlays for physical investment 
are estimated to be $85.6 billion 2005. Almost all of these outlays, or 
an estimated $78.4 billion, are for the procurement of weapons and other 
defense equipment, and the remainder is primarily for construction on 
military bases, family housing for military personnel, and Department of 
Energy defense facilities.

                              Table 6-1.  COMPOSITION OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                   Estimate
                                                                                       2003  -------------------
                                                                                     Actual     2004      2005
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                Federal Investment
Major public physical capital investment:
  Direct Federal:
    National defense..............................................................      74.7      85.2      85.6
    Nondefense....................................................................      29.5      31.0      31.1
                                                                                   -----------------------------
      Subtotal, direct major public physical capital investment...................     104.2     116.3     116.7
 
  Grants to State and local governments...........................................      59.8      61.3      63.1
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Subtotal, major public physical capital investment............................     164.1     177.6     179.8
 
Conduct of research and development:
  National defense................................................................      57.3      65.8      71.4
  Nondefense......................................................................      44.1      49.2      52.6
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of research and development.................................     101.4     115.0     124.0
 
Conduct of education and training:
  Grants to State and local governments...........................................      45.2      50.6      51.4
  Direct Federal..................................................................      34.5      33.6      34.8
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of education and training...................................      79.7      84.2      86.2
                                                                                   -----------------------------
      Total, major Federal investment outlays.....................................     345.2     376.7     390.0
 
                                    MEMORANDUM
 
Major Federal investment outlays:
  National defense................................................................     132.0     151.0     157.0
  Nondefense......................................................................     213.1     225.7     233.0
                                                                                   -----------------------------
    Total, major Federal investment outlays.......................................     345.2     376.7     390.0
 
Miscellaneous physical investment:
  Commodity inventories...........................................................      -0.6      -1.1      -0.4
  Other physical investment (direct)..............................................       5.7       4.2       3.7
                                                                                   -----------------------------
  Total, miscellaneous physical investment........................................       5.1       3.1       3.3
                                                                                   -----------------------------
Total, Federal investment outlays, including
  miscellaneous physical investment...............................................     350.3     379.8     393.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Outlays for direct physical investment for nondefense purposes are 
estimated to be $31.1 billion in 2005. These outlays include $16.4 
billion for construction and rehabilitation. This amount includes funds 
for water, power, and natural resources projects of the Corps of 
Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation within the Department of the 
Interior, and the Tennessee Valley Authority; construction and 
rehabilitation of veterans hospitals and Postal Service facilities; 
facilities for space and science programs, and Indian Health Service 
hospitals and clinics. Outlays for the acquisition of major equipment 
are estimated to be $14.1 billion in 2005. The largest amounts are for 
the air traffic control system. For the purchase or sale of land and 
structures, disbursements are estimated to exceed collections by $0.6 
billion in 2005. These purchases are largely for buildings and land for 
parks and other recreation purposes.
  Grants to State and local governments for physical investment are 
estimated to be $63.1 billion in 2005. More than two-thirds of these 
outlays, or $43.8 billion, are to assist States and localities with 
transportation infrastructure, primarily highways. Other major grants 
for physical investment fund sewage treatment plants, community 
development, and public housing.
  Conduct of research and development. Outlays for the conduct of 
research and development are estimated to be $124.0 billion in 2005. 
These outlays are devoted to increasing basic scientific knowledge and 
promoting research and development. They increase the Nation's security, 
improve the productivity of capital and labor for both public and 
private purposes, and enhance the quality of life. More than half of 
these outlays, an estimated $71.4 billion, are for national defense. 
Physical investment for research and development facilities and 
equipment is included in the physical investment category.
  Nondefense outlays for the conduct of research and development are 
estimated to be $52.6 billion in 2005. These are largely for the 
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science 
Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and research for nuclear 
and non-nuclear energy programs.
  A more complete and detailed discussion of research and development 
funding appears in Chapter 5, ``Research and Development'' in this 
volume.
  Conduct of education and training. Outlays for the conduct of 
education and training are estimated to be $86.2 billion in 2005. These 
outlays add to the stock of human capital by developing a more skilled 
and productive labor force. Grants to State and local governments for 
this category are estimated to be $51.4 billion in 2005, three-fifths of 
the total. They include education programs for the disadvantaged and the 
disabled, vocational and adult education programs, training programs in 
the Department of Labor, and Head Start. Direct Federal education and 
training outlays are estimated

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to be $34.8 billion in 2005. Programs in this category are primarily aid 
for higher education through student financial assistance, loan 
subsidies, the veterans GI bill, and health training programs.
  This category does not include outlays for education and training of 
Federal civilian and military employees. Outlays for education and 
training that are for physical investment and for research and 
development are in the categories for physical investment and the 
conduct of research and development.

Miscellaneous Physical Investment Outlays

  In addition to the categories of major Federal investment, several 
miscellaneous categories of investment outlays are shown at the bottom 
of Table 6-1. These items, all for physical investment, are generally 
unrelated to improving Government operations or enhancing economic 
activity.
  Outlays for commodity inventories are primarily for the purchase or 
sale of agricultural products pursuant to farm price support programs. 
Sales are estimated to exceed purchases by $0.4 billion in 2005.
  Outlays for other miscellaneous physical investment are estimated to 
be $3.7 billion in 2005. This category includes primarily conservation 
programs. These are entirely direct Federal outlays.

Detailed Table on Investment Spending

  The following table provides data on budget authority as well as 
outlays for major Federal investment divided according to grants to 
State and local governments and direct Federal spending. Miscellaneous 
investment is not included because it is generally unrelated to 
improving Government operations or enhancing economic activity.

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          Table 6-2. FEDERAL INVESTMENT BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS: GRANT AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS
                                            (in millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Budget Authority                             Outlays
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Description               2003         2004          2005          2003         2004          2005
                                  Actual      Estimate      Estimate       Actual      Estimate      Estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL
          GOVERNMENTS
 
Major public physical
 investments:
  Construction and
   rehabilitation:
    Transportation:
      Highways................      29,518        33,763   33,517            30,379        31,089        32,710
      Mass transportation.....      10,629         6,939    7,017             7,336         8,228         7,666
      Air transportation......       3,379         3,381    3,501             2,681         3,395         3,471
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal,                   43,526        44,083   44,035            40,396        42,712        43,847
         transportation.......
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Other construction and
     rehabilitation:
      Pollution control and          2,499         2,511    2,348             2,883         1,037         2,359
       abatement..............
      Community development          4,905         4,934    4,618             5,569         5,990         5,586
       block grants...........
      Other community and            1,481         1,203      901             1,379         1,532         1,456
       regional development...
      Housing assistance......       7,250         6,845    6,711             7,827         8,133         8,384
      Other construction......         255           402      139               715           704           204
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, other             16,390        15,895   14,717            18,373        17,396        17,989
         construction and
         rehabilitation.......
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, construction        59,916        59,978   58,752            58,769        60,108        61,836
       and rehabilitation.....
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Other physical assets.......       1,247         1,265    1,189             1,074         1,195         1,290
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, major public          61,163        61,243   59,941            59,843        61,303        63,126
     physical capital.........
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conduct of research and
 development:
  Agriculture.................         254           264      283               251           260           261
  Other.......................         553           574      830               319           495           870
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of               807           838    1,113               570           755         1,131
     research and development.
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conduct of education and
 training:
  Elementary, secondary, and        34,392        36,527   37,971            29,004        34,903        35,967
   vocational education.......
  Higher education............         458           461      395               487           594           487
  Research and general                 696           742      693               782           819           683
   education aids.............
  Training and employment.....       3,531         3,350    4,337             4,603         3,837         3,625
  Social services.............       9,775         9,929   10,145             9,607         9,726         9,946
  Agriculture.................         455           439      420               423           436           421
  Other.......................         911           269      249               282           236           267
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of            50,218        51,717   54,210            45,188        50,551        51,396
     education and training...
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, grants for             112,188       113,798   115,264          105,601       112,609       115,653
   investment.................
                               =================================================================================
    DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS
 
Major public physical
 investment:
  Construction and
   rehabilitation:
    National defense:
      Military construction          7,283         6,357    6,416             5,917         6,560         6,451
       and family housing.....
      Atomic energy defense            835           883      489               795           834           714
       activities and other...
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, national           8,118         7,240    6,905             6,712         7,394         7,165
         defense..............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Nondefense:
      International affairs...       1,101         1,098    1,100               656         1,000           987
      General science, space,        2,318         2,065    2,418             2,436         2,137         2,287
       and technology.........
      Water resources projects       3,035         2,906    2,330             3,104         2,583         2,654
      Other natural resources        1,728         2,106    1,756             1,905         1,662         2,030
       and environment........
      Energy..................       1,685         1,598    1,586             1,685         1,600         1,580
      Postal Service..........         442           637      714               307           409           530
      Transportation..........         345           426      546               342           389           564
      Veterans hospitals and         2,542         1,646    1,791             2,187         1,675         1,581
       other health facilities
      Federal Prison System...         263           178   ............         533           275           390
      GSA real property              1,720         1,748    1,636             1,298         1,926         1,872
       activities.............
      Other construction......       3,297         2,349    1,765             2,919         2,582         1,905
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, nondefense..      18,476        16,757   15,642            17,372        16,238        16,380
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, construction        26,594        23,997   22,547            24,084        23,632        23,545
       and rehabilitation.....
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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  Acquisition of major
   equipment:
    National defense:
      Department of Defense...      78,484        80,918   74,986            67,890        77,705        78,246
      Atomic energy defense            128           202      142               128           157           182
       activities.............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, national          78,612        81,120   75,128            68,018        77,862        78,428
         defense..............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Nondefense:
      General science and              545           562      608               463           601           568
       basic research.........
      Space flight, research,          485           670      681               411           544           667
       and supporting
       activities.............
      Postal Service..........         803         1,267      730               470           602           927
      Air transportation......       3,654         2,879    3,536             2,763         3,970         3,725
      Water transportation             433           557      571               436           433           483
       (Coast Guard)..........
      Other transportation           1,043         1,218      900             1,001         1,334           900
       (railroads)............
      Hospital and medical           1,034         1,019    1,020             1,949         1,936         1,936
       care for veterans......
      Law enforcement                1,488         1,890    1,829             1,187         1,832         1,876
       activities.............
      Department of the                492           591      498               547           577           576
       Treasury (fiscal
       operations)............
      Department of Commerce           779           773      852               681           645           768
       (NOAA).................
      GSA general supply fund.         676           750      724               626           750           724
      Other...................         856           749      930               935           936           998
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, nondefense..      12,288        12,925   12,879            11,469        14,160        14,148
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, acquisition of      90,900        94,045   88,007            79,487        92,022        92,576
       major equipment........
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Purchase or sale of land and
   structures:
    National defense..........         -23           -33      -33               -23           -33           -33
    Natural resources and              434           296      223               458           343           296
     environment..............
    General government........         179           170      161               200           265           214
    Other.....................          28            42      117                16            32            89
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, purchase or            618           475      468               651           607           566
       sale of land and
       structures.............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, major public         118,112       118,517   111,022          104,222       116,261       116,687
     physical investment......
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conduct of research and
 development:
  National defense:
    Defense military..........      58,793        65,432   69,791            53,778        61,347        67,041
    Atomic energy and other...       3,836         3,968    4,315             3,550         4,449         4,363
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, national            62,629        69,400   74,106            57,328        65,796        71,404
       defense................
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Nondefense:
    International affairs.....         269           269      255               229           260           258
    General science, space and
     technology
      NASA....................       7,369         7,596    7,774             6,002         7,148         7,921
      National Science               3,640         3,762    3,862             3,235         3,473         3,727
       Foundation.............
      Department of Energy....       2,509         2,712    2,624             2,480         2,718         2,624
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, general           13,787        14,339   14,515            11,946        13,599        14,530
         science, space and
         technology...........
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Energy....................       1,275         1,435    1,468             1,325         1,504         1,621
    Transportation:
      Department of                    547           531      566               483           546           599
       Transportation.........
      NASA....................         999         1,034      919             1,663         1,026         1,000
      Other...................         181           181      229                49           293           228
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal,                    3,002         3,181    3,182             3,520         3,369         3,448
         transportation.......
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Health:
      National Institutes of        25,178        27,021   27,681            21,835        24,559        26,698
       Health.................
      All other health........         725           652      719               927           652           688
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Subtotal, health......      25,903        27,673   28,400            22,762        25,211        27,386
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

[[Page 68]]

 
    Agriculture...............       1,432         1,538    1,216             1,377         1,391         1,306
    Natural resources and            2,018         2,049    2,040             1,839         1,791         1,953
     environment..............
    National Institute of              421           410      326               433           449           488
     Standards and Technology.
    Hospital and medical care          817           822      770               783           812           770
     for veterans.............
    All other research and           1,097         1,346    1,329               882         1,833         1,575
     development..............
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, nondefense....      48,477        51,358   51,778            43,542        48,455        51,456
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of           111,106       120,758   125,884          100,870       114,251       122,860
     research and development.
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conduct of education and
 training:
  Elementary, secondary, and         1,902         1,648    1,341             1,858         2,063         1,754
   vocational education.......
  Higher education............      23,872        22,105   23,260            23,875        21,642        23,118
  Research and general               1,789         1,856    1,882             1,699         1,838         1,887
   education aids.............
  Training and employment.....       1,563         1,576    1,661             1,514         1,528         1,611
  Health......................       1,634         1,575    1,297             1,500         1,704         1,568
  Veterans education,                2,227         2,479    2,502             2,295         2,633         2,795
   training, and
   rehabilitation.............
  General science and basic            935           930      864               775           953           901
   research...................
  National defense............           8             8        8                 9             8             8
  International affairs.......         405           349      376               393           352           373
  Other.......................         619           763      643               567           886           774
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, conduct of            34,954        33,289   33,834            34,485        33,607        34,789
     education and training...
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, direct Federal         264,172       272,564   270,740          239,577       264,119       274,336
   investment.................
                               =================================================================================
Total, Federal investment.....     376,360       386,362   386,004          345,178       376,728       389,989
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



               PART II:  PERFORMANCE OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT

  Introduction. In recent years there has been increased emphasis on the 
performance of Government programs. The Congress mandated in the 
Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 that performance plans be 
developed and that the agencies report annual progress against these 
plans.
  In addition, this Administration began in the 2004 Budget to assess 
every Federal program over a five year period by a method known as the 
Program Assessment Rating Tool, or PART. With this budget, the second 
year of using the PART, the Administration has assessed about two-fifths 
of the programs of the Federal Government The PART system assesses each 
program on four components (purpose, planning, management, and results/
accountability) and gives a score for each of the components. The scores 
for each component are then weighted--results/accountability carries the 
greatest weight--and the program is given an overall score. A program is 
rated effective if it receives an overall score of 85 percent or more, 
moderately effective if the score is 70 to 85 percent, adequate if the 
score is 50 to 70 percent, and inadequate if the score is 49 percent or 
lower. The program is given a rating ``Results Not Demonstrated'' if the 
program does not have a good performance measure or does not have data 
for that measure. Chapter 2 of this volume discusses the PART concepts 
in more detail.
  This section summarizes the results of the PART for direct investment 
programs, defined to include capital assets, research and development, 
and education. Because an entire program is assessed, not just the 
investment portion of the program, the assessments for some programs may 
cover more than just the investment spending. PART assessments of 
programs that are grants to State and local governments are not 
summarized in this chapter but are summarized in Chapter 8, ``Aid to 
State and Local Governments'', in this volume.
  This section covers the following 119 programs.
    Programs for capital assets are those identified in the PART 
          system as ``capital assets and service acquisition'' (44 
          programs);
    Programs for research and development are essentially those 
          identified in the PART system as ``research and development'' 
          (59 programs); and
    Programs for education (16 programs) are primarily programs 
          in the Department of Education that are not grants to State 
          and local governments (e.g., Federal Pell grants to 
          individuals). This category also includes a few education 
          programs in other agencies, such as the Montgomery GI Bill in 
          the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Health Professions 
          program in the Department of Health and Human Services.

[[Page 69]]

  Information on these and other programs assessed by PART is on the CD 
ROM that accompanies this volume.

  Summary of ratings. Table 6-3 shows that the average weighted score 
for the 119 investment programs that have been rated by PART was 66 
percent, which is a rating of ``adequate''. These programs had total 
spending of $132.0 billion in 2003. Of these programs:
    39 were rated ``results not demonstrated'' ($42.1 billion);
    23 were rated effective ($8.8 billion);
    31 were rated moderately effective ($34.6 billion);
    19 were rated adequate ($39.4 billion); and
    7 were rated ineffective ($7.1 billion).

                                     

              Table 6-3.  SUMMARY OF PART RATINGS AND SCORES FOR DIRECT FEDERAL INVESTMENT PROGRAMS
                         (excludes grants to State and local governments for investment)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Type of Investment
                                                         -------------------------------------------------------
                        Criteria                                                      Education
                                                           Physical   Research and       and      All investment
                                                           capital     development     training      programs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Average Scores
 
Purpose.................................................        80%             91%          76%             85%
Planning................................................        74%             76%          74%             75%
Management..............................................        81%             84%          64%             80%
Results/Accountability..................................        49%             58%          35%             51%
Weighted Average \1\....................................        64%             71%          53%             66%
Average Rating..........................................   Adequate      Moderately     Adequate        Adequate
                                                                          effective
 
                                                        Number of Programs
 
                       Ratings \2\
Results not demonstrated................................         19              15            5              39
Effective...............................................          6              16            1              23
Moderately effective....................................         10              20            1              31
Adequate................................................          7               6            6              19
Ineffective.............................................          2               2            3               7
                                                         -------------------------------------------------------
  Total number of investment programs rated.............         44              59           16             119
 
                                                        In millions of dollars (2003)
 
Results not demonstrated................................    $36,114          $2,842       $3,116         $42,072
Effective...............................................      1,005           7,736           49           8,790
Moderately effective....................................     29,140           5,337          171          34,648
Adequate................................................     19,500             570       19,361          39,431
Ineffective.............................................      6,215              89          779           7,083
                                                         -------------------------------------------------------
  All investment programs that were rated in PART.......    $91,974         $16,574      $23,476        $132,024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Weighted as follows: Purpose (20%), Planning (10%), Management (20%), Results/Accountability (50%).
\2\ The rating of effective indicates a score of 85 percent or more; moderately effective, 70-85 percent;
  adequate, 50-70 percent; and ineffective, 49 percent or less.

  Assessments of individual programs. The ratings of the ten physical 
capital and education and training investment programs with the largest 
funding are summarized here. Information on research and development is 
in Chapter 5, ``Research and Development'' in this volume.

Capital Assets

  Department of Defense. Air Combat Program ($15.1 billion in 2003). 
Rating: Moderately Effective. This program consists of a number of 
individual aircraft and helicopter research, development and procurement 
programs that, taken together, comprise DOD's investment in air combat 
capabilities. The PART analysis showed that the program purpose is clear 
owing to the unique military requirement for these systems.
  Department of Defense. Shipbuilding ($9.5 billion). Rating: Adequate. 
This program buys new ships and overhauls older ships for the Navy. The 
assessment shows that the program has a clear purpose, and the Navy has 
specific cost, schedule, and performance goals for each shipbuilding 
program. The program has experi

[[Page 70]]

enced cost increases and schedule slips on some ship construction 
programs.
  Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) ($7.6 billion in 2003). Rating: 
Moderately Effective. TVA is the fifth largest electric utility in the 
country, generating power at 48 coal-fired, hydropower, nuclear, and 
other power plants that it operates to meet the electricity needs of 8.3 
million people (3 percent of the U. S. market). The PART assessment gave 
TVA mixed reviews. TVA does an excellent job generating power at its 
existing power plants. A decade ago TVA's nuclear power plants posed 
serious technical and safety problems but it has overcome these problems 
and today its nuclear power plants set industry standards.
  However, TVA has a high level of debt compared to many of its 
competitors in the electricity industry. It has recently issued a 
strategic plan that includes a debt reduction target of $3 billion to $5 
billion over the next 10 to 12 years, which is incorporated into the 
budget estimates for TVA and will be a basis on which TVA's annual 
performance plans are developed.
  Department of Defense. Missile Defense ($7.5 billion in 2003). Rating: 
Results Not Demonstrated. This program consists of multiple systems and 
capabilities developed by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) or military 
services. This program fields active defenses against short, medium, and 
long-range missiles in a multi-layered global system.
  The assessment found that: a) the Department of Defense continues to 
design, engineer, and develop extensive missile defense capabilities, 
but has not programmed adequate funds to procure and operate newly 
developed capabilities; b) technical progress continues, but there have 
been challenges. Some missiles have operated effectively, but also 
experienced command and control problems; some tests have failed, but 
some were a success.
  Department of Energy. Environmental Management ($7.6 billion in 2003). 
Rating: Adequate. This program protects human health and the environment 
by cleaning up waste and contamination resulting from more than 50 years 
of nuclear weapons production and energy research at 114 Department of 
Energy sites in the United States and its territories. The assessment 
found that managers are implementing reforms that are improving program 
performance. The program needs to develop annual cost and schedule 
performance measures.
  General Services Administration. GSA's Regional IT Solutions Program 
($5.8 billion in 2003). Rating: Results Not Demonstrated. This program 
provides expert technical, acquisition, and information technology 
products and services to Federal clients. This assessment found that the 
program is useful to Federal agencies that do not have in-house 
expertise to acquire IT products or services. The assessment also found 
that the program does not have long-term outcome goals that relate to 
other government agencies or the private sector.
  Department of Defense. Communications Infrastructure ($5.6 billion in 
2003). Rating: Results Not Demonstrated. This program includes all 
networks and systems for transmission of voice, data, and video 
information for the Department. This assessment revealed that DOD does 
not manage its communications infrastructure on an enterprise or 
department-wide basis. The assessment also suggested that DOD should 
develop common performance measures to be used across the entire 
department for this program.
  Department of Defense. Airlift Program ($5.3 billion in 2003). Rating: 
Moderately Effective. This program consists of a number of individual 
Air Force tactical and strategic airlift aircraft research, development 
and procurement programs that, taken together, comprise DOD's investment 
in airlift capabilities. The analysis showed that this is a coherent 
program with a clear and basic long-term goal, namely to be able to move 
military forces and their equipment from the U.S. to anywhere in the 
world whenever required. DOD must aggressively examine possible trade-
offs within the program that could lower the cost of meeting the airlift 
requirement without sacrificing military readiness or combat 
capabilities.
  Department of Housing and Urban Development. Project-Based Rental 
Assistance ($4.8 billion in 2003). Rating:  Ineffective. This program 
provides funding to landlords who rent a certain number of affordable 
apartments to low-income families or individuals. Assistance is tied 
directly to the properties--tenants cannot move without losing their 
assistance. The program receives low performance scores in part because 
there is confusion over program objectives, the program lacks strong 
financial accountability, and it produces poor results relative to 
alternative forms of housing assistance.

Education

  Department of Education. Federal Pell Grants ($11.4 billion in 2003). 
Rating: Adequate. This program provides grant aid to nearly five million 
needy students to help them pay for an undergraduate education. The 
assessment found that the program helps ensure that low-income students 
can afford a college education. However, the Department of Education has 
only been minimally successful in achieving its long-term and annual 
performance goals for its main student aid programs. In addition, Pell 
grants, like other student aid, are prone to abuse, where students who 
under-report family income receive more aid than they should. The 
Department estimates that net overawards in Pell total more than $350 
million annually.

[[Page 71]]

              PART III:  FEDERALLY FINANCED CAPITAL STOCKS

  Federal investment spending creates a ``stock'' of capital that is 
available in the future for productive use. Each year, Federal 
investment outlays add to this stock of capital. At the same time, 
however, wear and tear and obsolescence reduce it. This section presents 
very rough measures over time of three different kinds of capital stocks 
financed by the Federal Government: public physical capital, research 
and development (R&D), and education.
  Federal spending for physical assets adds to the Nation's capital 
stock of tangible assets, such as roads, buildings, and aircraft 
carriers. These assets deliver a flow of services over their lifetime. 
The capital depreciates as the asset ages, wears out, is accidentally 
damaged, or becomes obsolete.
  Federal spending for the conduct of research and development adds to 
an ``intangible'' asset, the Nation's stock of knowledge. Spending for 
education adds to the stock of human capital by providing skills that 
help make people more productive. Although financed by the Federal 
Government, the research and development or education can be carried out 
by Federal or State government laboratories, universities and other 
nonprofit organizations, local governments, or private industry. 
Research and development covers a wide range of activities, from the 
investigation of subatomic particles to the exploration of outer space; 
it can be ``basic'' research without particular applications in mind, or 
it can have a highly specific practical use. Similarly, education 
includes a wide variety of programs, assisting people of all ages 
beginning with pre-school education and extending through graduate 
studies and adult education. Like physical assets, the capital stocks of 
R&D and education provide services over a number of years and depreciate 
as they become outdated.
  For this analysis, physical and R&D capital stocks are estimated using 
the perpetual inventory method. Each year's Federal outlays are treated 
as gross investment, adding to the capital stock; depreciation reduces 
the capital stock. Gross investment less depreciation is net investment. 
The estimates of the capital stock are equal to the sum of net 
investment in the current and prior years. A limitation of the perpetual 
inventory method is that the original investment spending may not 
accurately measure the current value of the asset created, even after 
adjusting for inflation, because the value of existing capital changes 
over time due to changing market conditions. However, alternative 
methods for measuring asset value, such as direct surveys of current 
market worth or indirect estimation based on an expected rate of return, 
are especially difficult to apply to assets that do not have a private 
market, such as highways or weapons systems.
  In contrast to physical and R&D stocks, the estimate of the education 
stock is based on the replacement cost method. Data on the total years 
of education of the U.S. population are combined with data on the 
current cost of education and the Federal share of education spending to 
yield the cost of replacing the Federal share of the Nation's stock of 
education.
  It should be stressed that these estimates are rough approximations, 
and provide a basis only for making broad generalizations. Errors may 
arise from uncertainty about the useful lives and depreciation rates of 
different types of assets, incomplete data for historical outlays, and 
imprecision in the deflators used to express costs in constant dollars. 
The methods used to estimate capital stocks are discussed further in the 
technical note at the end of Chapter 12, ``Stewardship,'' in this 
volume. Additional detail about these methods appeared in a 
methodological note in the Chapter 7, ``Federal Investment Spending and 
Capital Budgeting,'' in the Analytical Perspectives volume of the 2004 
Budget.

                      The Stock of Physical Capital

  This section presents data on stocks of physical capital assets and 
estimates of the depreciation of these assets.
  Trends.--Table 6-4 shows the value of the net federally financed 
physical capital stock since 1960, in constant fiscal year 2000 dollars. 
\1\ The total stock grew at a 2.2 percent average annual rate from 1960 
to 2003, with periods of faster growth during the late 1960s and the 
1980s. The stock amounted to $2,137 billion in 2003 and is estimated to 
increase to $2,266 billion by 2005. In 2003, the national defense 
capital stock accounted for $646 billion, or 30 percent of the total, 
and nondefense stocks for $1,491 billion, or 70 percent of the total.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ Constant dollar stock estimates are expressed in chained 2000 
dollars, consistent with the December 2003 revisions to the National 
Income and Product Accounts. The shift to a more recent base year 
changes the reported level of real stocks, but leaves the year-to-year 
trends largely the same.

[[Page 72]]



                                                                  Table 6-4.  NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED PHYSICAL CAPITAL
                                                                                  (In billions of 2000 dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                             Nondefense
                                                                                                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                 Direct Federal Capital             Capital Financed by Federal Grants
                                  Fiscal Year                                    Total   National             ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                          Defense     Total              Water                                     Community
                                                                                                   Nondefense   Total     and     Other    Total   Transportation     and      Natural    Other
                                                                                                                         Power                                      Regional  Resources
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Five year intervals:
  1960........................................................................      849       608        242        95       59       36      146           89           27         21        10
  1965........................................................................      937       589        348       123       74       49      225          158           32         22        13
  1970........................................................................    1,101       630        470       146       88       58      324          230           47         26        21
  1975........................................................................    1,137       545        592       166      102       64      426          282           76         42        25
  1980........................................................................    1,258       494        763       195      123       72      568          342          121         79        27
  1985........................................................................    1,462       572        890       222      136       86      668          397          146        100        26
  1990........................................................................    1,740       722      1,018       256      147      109      762          462          158        113        28
  1995........................................................................    1,882       714      1,168       297      157      141      871          534          168        123        46
Annual data:
  2000........................................................................    1,979       635      1,345       337      160      178    1,007          618          183        131        75
  2001........................................................................    2,022       631      1,391       351      163      188    1,040          640          186        132        81
  2002........................................................................    2,078       636      1,442       366      165      201    1,076          666          189        134        87
  2003........................................................................    2,137       646      1,491       379      166      213    1,112          690          193        135        94
  2004 est....................................................................    2,204       663      1,541       393      167      226    1,148          716          196        135       100
  2005 est....................................................................    2,266       677      1,588       405      168      237    1,183          741          199        136       106
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Real stocks of defense and nondefense capital show very different 
trends. Nondefense stocks have grown consistently since 1970, increasing 
from $470 billion in 1970 to $1,491 billion in 2003. With the 
investments proposed in the budget, nondefense stocks are estimated to 
grow to $1,588 billion in 2005. During the 1970s, the nondefense capital 
stock grew at an average annual rate of 5.0 percent. In the 1980s, 
however, the growth rate slowed to 2.9 percent annually, with growth 
continuing at about that rate since then.
  Real national defense stocks began in 1970 at a relatively high level, 
and declined steadily throughout the decade as depreciation from 
investment in the Vietnam era exceeded new investment in military 
construction and weapons procurement. Starting in the early 1980s, a 
large defense buildup began to increase the stock of defense capital. By 
1987, the defense stock exceeded its earlier Vietnam-era peak. In the 
early 1990s, however, depreciation on the increased stocks and a slower 
pace of defense physical capital investment began to reduce the stock 
from its previous levels. The increased defense investment in the last 
few years has reversed this decline, increasing the stock from an 
estimated $646 billion in 2003 to $677 billion in 2005.
  Another trend in the Federal physical capital stocks is the shift from 
direct Federal assets to grant-financed assets. In 1960, 39 percent of 
federally financed nondefense capital was owned by the Federal 
Government, and 61 percent was owned by State and local governments but 
financed by Federal grants. Expansion in Federal grants for highways and 
other State and local capital, coupled with slower growth in direct 
Federal investment for water resources, for example, shifted the 
composition of the stock substantially. In 2003, 25 percent of the 
nondefense stock was owned by the Federal Government and 75 percent by 
State and local governments.
  The growth in the stock of physical capital financed by grants has 
come in several areas. The growth in the stock for transportation is 
largely grants for highways, including the Interstate Highway System. 
The growth in community and regional development stocks occurred largely 
following the enactment of the community development block grant in the 
early 1970s. The value of this capital stock has grown only slowly in 
the past few years. The growth in the natural resources area occurred 
primarily because of construction grants for sewage treatment 
facilities. The value of this federally financed stock has increased 
about 35 percent since the mid-1980s.

              The Stock of Research and Development Capital

  This section presents data on the stock of research and development 
capital, taking into account adjustments for its depreciation.
  Trends.--As shown in Table 6-5, the R&D capital stock financed by 
Federal outlays is estimated to be $1,054 billion in 2003 in constant 
2000 dollars. Roughly half is the stock of basic research knowledge; the 
remainder is the stock of applied research and development.
  The nondefense stock accounted for about three-fifths of the total 
federally financed R&D stock in 2003. Although investment in defense R&D 
has exceeded that of nondefense R&D in nearly every year since 1981, the 
nondefense R&D stock is actually the larger of the two, because of the 
different emphasis on basic research and applied research and 
development. Defense R&D spending is heavily concentrated in applied 
research and development, which depreciates much more quickly than basic 
research. The stock of applied research and

[[Page 73]]

development is assumed to depreciate at a ten percent geometric rate, 
while basic research is assumed not to depreciate at all.
  The defense R&D stock rose slowly during the 1970s, as gross outlays 
for R&D trended down in constant dollars and the stock created in the 
1960s depreciated. Increased defense R&D spending from 1980 through 1990 
led to a more rapid growth of the R&D stock. Subsequently, real defense 
R&D outlays tapered off, depreciation grew, and, as a result, the real 
net defense R&D stock stabilized at around $420 billion. Renewed 
spending for defense R&D in this budget is projected to increase the 
stock to $513 billion in 2005.
  The growth of the nondefense R&D stock slowed from the 1970s to the 
1980s, from an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the 1970s to a rate of 2.1 
percent in the 1980s. Gross investment in real terms fell during much of 
the 1980s, and about three-fourths of new outlays went to replacing 
depreciated R&D. Since 1988, however, nondefense R&D outlays have been 
on an upward trend while depreciation has edged down. As a result, the 
net nondefense R&D capital stock has grown more rapidly.

                                        Table 6-5.  NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT \1\
                                                              (In billions of 2000 dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     National Defense                        Nondefense                         Total Federal
                                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Applied                              Applied                              Applied
               Fiscal Year                                Basic      Research                  Basic      Research                  Basic      Research
                                              Total     Research       and         Total     Research       and         Total     Research       and
                                                                   Development                          Development                          Development
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Five year intervals:
  1970...................................         261          16          245         215          67          148         475          82          393
  1975...................................         276          21          256         262          97          165         538         118          421
  1980...................................         279          25          255         311         131          179         590         156          434
  1985...................................         321          30          291         339         174          165         659         204          455
  1990...................................         403          36          367         382         229          154         785         265          520
  1995...................................         418          40          378         428         268          161         846         308          539
Annual data:
  2000...................................         423          48          375         543         368          175         966         416          549
  2001...................................         421          50          371         563         386          177         984         436          548
  2002...................................         435          52          383         579         405          175       1,014         457          557
  2003...................................         456          54          402         598         424          174       1,054         478          577
  2004 est...............................         483          55          428         621         445          176       1,104         501          604
  2005 est...............................         513          57          456         646         467          178       1,159         524          634
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Excludes stock of physical capital for research and development, which is included in Table 6-4.

                     The Stock of Education Capital

  This section presents estimates of the stock of education capital 
financed by the Federal Government.
  As shown in Table 6-6, the federally financed education stock is 
estimated at $1,292 billion in 2003 in constant 2000 dollars. The vast 
majority of the Nation's education stock is financed by State and local 
governments, and by students and their families themselves. This 
federally financed portion of the stock represents about 3 percent of 
the Nation's total education stock. \2\ Nearly three-quarters is for 
elementary and secondary education, while the remaining one quarter is 
for higher education.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \2\ For estimates of the total education stock, see table 12-4 in 
Chapter 12, ``Stewardship.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The federally financed education stock has grown steadily in the last 
few decades, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent from 1970 
to 2003. The expansion of the education stock is projected to continue 
under this budget, with the stock rising to $1,465 billion in 2005.

[[Page 74]]



      Table 6-6.  NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED EDUCATION CAPITAL
                      (In billions of 2000 dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Elementary
                                        Total         and        Higher
            Fiscal Year               Education    Secondary   Education
                                        Stock      Education
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Five year intervals:
  1960.............................          70            51         20
  1965.............................          98            71         27
  1970.............................         225           176         49
  1975.............................         324           260         64
  1980.............................         458           356        102
  1985.............................         565           421        144
  1990.............................         745           550        195
  1995.............................         853           619        234
Annual data:
  2000.............................       1,121           819        302
  2001.............................       1,174           847        327
  2002.............................       1,221           879        342
  2003.............................       1,292           932        360
  2004 est.........................       1,378         1,004        374
  2005 est.........................       1,465         1,073        391
------------------------------------------------------------------------