[Analytical Perspectives]
[Current Services Estimates]
[24. Current Services Estimates]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
There has long been a desire to have a neutral benchmark against which
policy proposals can be measured. Since the early 1970s when the first
requirements for the calculation of a ``current services'' baseline were
enacted, a variety of concepts and measures have been employed. In
recent years, the current services baseline has been defined to be
identical to the baseline required by the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA).
However, that baseline has some serious technical flaws, which
compromise its ability to serve as a neutral measure. This section
provides detailed estimates of a baseline that correct these flaws. It
also discusses alternative formulations for the baseline.
Ideally, a current services baseline would provide a projection of
estimated receipts, outlays, deficits or surpluses, and budget authority
needed to reflect this year's enacted policies and programs for each
year in the future. Because such a concept would be nearly impossible to
calculate across all segments of the government, the baseline has become
largely a mechanical construct. The following section discusses the
construct as it applies to different types of programs. The baseline is
not intended to be a prediction of the final outcome of the annual
budget process, nor is it a proposed budget. By itself, the current
services baseline commits no one to any particular policy, and it does
not constrain the choices available. The commitments or constraints
reflected in the current services estimates are based on the tax and
spending policies contained in current law.
The current services baseline is used in a variety of ways: It can
warn of future problems, either for Government fiscal policy as a whole
or for individual tax and spending programs. It provides a starting
point for formulating the annual budget. It is a ``policy-neutral''
benchmark against which the President's Budget and other budget
proposals can be compared to see the magnitude of the proposed changes.
The following table shows current services estimates of receipts,
outlays, and surpluses for 2003 through 2009. They are based on the
economic assumptions described later in this chapter. The estimates are
shown on a unified budget basis. The off-budget receipts and outlays of
the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service Fund are added to
the on-budget receipts and outlays to calculate the unified budget
totals. The table also shows the current services estimates by major
component. The BEA baseline deficits are shown as a memorandum in the
table.
Table 24-1. BASELINE CATEGORY TOTALS
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........................... 1,782.3 1,791.2 2,036.6 2,214.9 2,353.7 2,497.1 2,635.6
Outlays:
Discretionary:
Defense........................ 404.9 451.6 438.8 417.3 420.8 432.9 442.8
Nondefense..................... 420.8 456.6 470.8 467.6 475.4 481.1 489.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary.......... 825.7 908.2 909.6 884.9 896.2 914.1 932.5
Mandatory:
Social Security................ 470.5 492.0 510.5 529.1 552.0 576.6 608.1
Medicare....................... 245.7 265.9 289.6 336.4 372.1 393.4 417.7
Medicaid and SCHIP............. 165.0 182.3 188.5 198.4 214.0 232.7 252.5
Other mandatory................ 297.6 314.0 320.5 305.8 302.8 324.7 339.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory.............. 1,178.9 1,254.2 1,309.1 1,369.7 1,440.9 1,527.5 1,617.6
Net interest..................... 153.1 156.3 178.0 213.2 245.5 273.1 296.4
Total outlays...................... 2,157.6 2,318.7 2,396.7 2,467.7 2,582.5 2,714.7 2,846.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unified deficit.................. -375.3 -527.5 -360.1 -252.9 -228.9 -217.5 -211.0
On-budget...................... -536.1 -681.5 -538.9 -454.8 -453.1 -464.9 -473.7
Off-budget..................... 160.8 154.0 178.8 201.9 224.2 247.4 262.7
Memorandum:
BEA baseline deficit............. -375.3 -527.5 -393.3 -305.3 -291.8 -287.8 -270.9
Correct growth rates for pay... ......... ......... 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
Do not extend emergencies...... ......... ......... 42.8 78.5 86.3 89.3 91.5
Extend certain tax provisions.. ......... ......... -11.8 -30.3 -30.5 -29.7 -45.8
Related debt service........... ......... ......... 0.4 2.0 4.7 8.2 11.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline deficit......... -375.3 -527.5 -360.1 -252.8 -228.9 -217.5 -211.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 358]]
Conceptual Basis for Estimates
Receipts and outlays are divided into two categories that are
important for calculating the current services estimates: those
controlled by authorizing legislation (direct spending and receipts) and
those controlled through the annual appropriations process
(discretionary spending). Different estimating rules apply to each
category. There are numerous alternative rules that could be used to
develop current services. The next section discusses some alternatives
that might be considered.
Direct spending and receipts.--Direct spending includes the major
entitlement programs, such as social security, medicare, medicaid,
Federal employee retirement, unemployment compensation, food stamps and
other means-tested entitlements. It also includes such programs as
deposit insurance and farm price and income supports, where the
Government is legally obligated to make payments under certain
conditions. Receipts and direct spending are alike in that they involve
ongoing activities that generally operate under permanent authority
(they do not require annual authorization), and the underlying statutes
generally specify the tax rates or benefit levels that must be collected
or paid, and who must pay or who is eligible to receive benefits. The
current services baseline assumes that receipts and direct spending
programs continue in the future as specified by current law. In most
cases, that is what will occur without enactment of new legislation. The
budgetary impact of anticipated regulations and administrative actions
that are permissible under current law are also reflected in the
estimates.
If a baseline is intended to reflect current law, then the provisions
of law providing spending authority and the authority to collect taxes
or other receipts that expire under current law should be assumed to
expire. However, the current services baseline assumes extension of
several types of authority:
Expiring provisions affecting excise taxes dedicated to a
trust fund are assumed to be extended at current rates. During
the projection period of 2004 through 2009, taxes deposited in
the Leaking Underground Storage Tank trust fund, which are
scheduled to expire on March 31, 2005, taxes deposited in the
Highway and Aquatic Resources trust funds, which expire on
September 30, 2005, and taxes deposited in the Airport and
Airway trust fund, which expire on September 30, 2007, are the
only taxes affected by this exception.
Direct spending programs that will expire under current law
are assumed to be extended if their 2004 outlays exceed $50
million. For example, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
and child care entitlement to States, which expired at the end
of 2002 and have been temporarily extended several times, are
now scheduled to expire in March, 2004. The baseline estimates
provided here assume continuation of these programs throughout
the projection period. However, programs enacted after the
enactment of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 that are
explicitly temporary in nature expire in the baseline even if
their current year outlays exceed the $50 million threshold.
Certain provisions in the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts that were
clearly not intended to be temporary are assumed to continue
past their expiration date. These provisions include tax rate
reductions and marriage penalty tax relief. Unlike the two
extensions discussed above, the BEA baseline definitions,
developed before the enactment of the 2001 and 2003 tax acts,
does not provide for extension of these provisions.
Discretionary spending.--Discretionary programs differ in one
important aspect from direct spending programs--Congress usually
provides spending authority for discretionary programs one year at a
time. The spending authority is normally provided in the form of annual
appropriations. Absent appropriations of additional funds in the future,
discretionary programs would cease to exist after existing balances were
spent. If the baseline was intended to reflect current law, then a
baseline would only reflect the expenditure of remaining balances from
appropriations laws. Instead the current services baseline provides a
mechanical definition for discretionary programs that is somewhat
arbitrary. The definition used here attempts to keep discretionary
spending level in real terms. For 2004, the current services estimates
for discretionary programs are based on enacted appropriations for the
Departments of Defense and Homeland Security and the conference report
on the Consolidated Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2004 for the
remaining agencies. The estimates assume that the conference report will
be adopted as reported. For 2005 through 2009, funding for most accounts
is equal to this 2004 level adjusted for inflation. The inflation rates
used here are similar to those required by the BEA but adjust to remove
the overcompensation for federal pay inherent in the BEA definition.
Unlike the BEA requirements, these current services estimates assume
that federal pay raises are effective in January, as required under
current law. At the time the BEA was enacted, it ignored the nearly
contemporaneous enactment of the Federal Employees Compensation Act of
1991 that shifted the effective date of federal employee pay raises from
October to January. In addition, the baseline estimates presented here
assume that any emergency appropriation enacted for 2004 is a one-time
only event. The BEA requires that the baseline assume funding for
emergencies repeatedly through the projection period.
Alternative Formulations of Baseline
Throughout much of U.S. history, budget proposals were often compared
to either the President's request or the previous year's budget. In the
early 1970s, development of a baseline was pursued in attempt to provide
a more neutral benchmark for comparisons. The Congressional Budget Act
of 1974 included a requirement that OMB and the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO)
[[Page 359]]
provide estimates of a current services baseline. The definition of the
baseline was very general and specific guidance was not provided.
Since these estimates have been developed, current services for direct
spending programs and receipts were generally estimated based on laws
currently in place. Major direct spending programs were assumed to
continue past their expiration date. The initial budget enforcement
legislation, enacted in 1990, specifically required that programs sunset
on schedule in the baseline. This provision was subsequently amended to
require extension of most major direct spending programs. However, in
the case of receipts, the BEA requires only the extension of trust fund
excise taxes.
For discretionary programs, the proper definition of current services
was more ambiguous. OMB, for most accounts, applied an inflation
adjustment to the current year budgetary resource. However, numerous
exceptions were made to give a better picture of providing the same
services in the future. Programs that were clearly temporary in nature
were allowed to expire. Some programs were allowed to grow along a path
that reflected development of a project: design, followed by
construction, followed by operating expenses. CBO also made similar
adjustments to their estimates. In addition, they produced a baseline
that straightlined budgetary resources rather than apply an inflation
adjustment. With enactment of budget enforcement legislation in the
1990s, a precise definition of baseline for discretionary programs was
instituted and all discretionary programs were estimated based on
precise rules.
It is clear, however, that a number of ``current services''
definitions could be developed that differ for those presented in this
chapter:
Extend provisions affecting parts of mandatory programs.
Currently, mandatory programs that have current year outlays
of over $50 million are generally assumed to continue.
However, provisions of law that affect parts of mandatory
programs, even those that have been consistently extended in
the past, are assumed to expire as scheduled. This creates an
upward bias on spending as extensions of programs are not
scored as increasing outlays where extension of savings
provisions are counted as savings and provide offsets for
other spending.
Do not extend any authorizing laws that expire. If all
mandatory programs were assumed to expire as scheduled, the
deficit in 2005 would be $21 billion lower than the current
estimates and deficits for 2005 through 2009 would be $208
billion lower. (See the section below on major program
assumptions for details on mandatory program extensions
assumed in the estimates.) If excise taxes were allowed to
expire, the deficit would be $165 billion higher over the
period 2005 through 2009. If certain provisions of the 2001
and 2003 Tax Acts were assumed to expire, the deficit would be
$162 billion lower over the period.
Straightline appropriations. If all discretionary budgetary
resources were to be the same in each year in the projection
period as provided for the current year, total outlays would
be $13 lower in 2005 and $271 billion lower over the period
2005 through 2009.
Do not extend any appropriations. The current treatment of
expiring provisions is inconsistent with the treatment of
discretionary spending. All discretionary spending continues
whether there is authorization for the program or not and
whether funds have already been provided or not. In nearly all
cases, funds for discretionary programs have not been provided
in advance for years beyond the current year. If rules
consistent with the treatment of other expiring provisions
were applied to discretionary spending, no new budgetary
resources would be provided. Thus, the only discretionary
outlays that would be included in the baseline would be the
lagged spending from the current year budgetary resource. If
this rule were followed, outlays in 2005 would be reduced by
$570 billion relative to the current estimates. Clearly this
would provide an unrealistic estimate of future spending and
the government's future fiscal position.
[[Page 360]]
Table 24-2 provides estimates for a variety of changes in baseline
definitions that could be considered.
Table 24-2. ALTERNATIVE BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
(in billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005-2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline deficit........... -527 -360 -253 -229 -218 -211 -1,270
Alternative assumptions: \1\
Extend provisions affecting parts -1 -* * * * 1 2
of mandatory programs...........
Do not extend any authorizing
laws:
Mandatory spending \2\......... 8 21 22 24 66 76 208
Trust fund excise taxes........ ......... -* -31 -33 -48 -52 -165
Certain provisions of the 2001 ......... 12 31 33 34 52 162
and 2003 Tax Acts.............
Straightline appropriations...... ......... 13 30 50 75 102 271
Do not extend any appropriations. ......... 570 881 1,022 1,127 1,222 4,822
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ A positive number represents a reduction in the deficit. All estimates include related debt service impacts.
\2\ Estimates provided here are the totals for the illustrative provisions shown in Table 24-5. This is not a
complete listing of all provisions that expire.
* $500 million or less.
Economic Assumptions
The current services estimates are based on the same economic
assumptions as the President's Budget, which are based on enactment of
the President's Budget proposals. The economy and the budget interact.
Changes in economic conditions significantly alter the estimates of tax
receipts, unemployment benefits, entitlement payments that are
automatically adjusted for changes in cost-of-living (COLAs), income
support programs for low-income individuals, and interest on the Federal
debt. In turn, Government tax and spending policies influence prices,
economic growth, consumption, savings, and investment. Because of these
interactions, it would be reasonable, from an economic perspective, to
assume different economic paths for the current services baseline and
the President's Budget. However, this would diminish the value of
current services estimates as a benchmark for measuring proposed policy
changes, because it would then be difficult to separate the effects of
proposed policy changes from the effects of different economic
assumptions. By using the same economic assumptions for current services
and the President's Budget, this potential source of confusion is
eliminated. The economic assumptions underlying both the budget and the
current service estimates are summarized in Table 24-3. The economic
outlook underlying these assumptions is discussed in greater detail in
Chapter 2 of this volume.
Major Programmatic Assumptions
A number of programmatic assumptions must be made in order to
calculate the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the
number of beneficiaries who will receive payments from the major benefit
programs and annual cost-of-living adjustments in the indexed programs.
Assumptions on baseline caseload projections for the major benefit
programs are shown in Table 24-4. Assumptions about various automatic
cost-of-living-adjustments are shown in Table 24-3.
Table 24-3. SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
(Fiscal years; dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars....................... 10,828 11,466 12,042 12,641 13,279 13,973 14,702
Real, chained (2000) dollars)......... 10,288 10,753 11,154 11,536 11,919 12,306 12,690
Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars....................... 4.4 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2
Real, chained (2000) dollars)......... 2.7 4.5 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
Inflation measures (percent change, year
over year):
GDP chained price index............... 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0
Consumer price index (all urban)...... 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.5
Unemployment rate, civilian (percent)..... 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1
Interest rates (percent):
91-day Treasury bills................... 1.1 1.1 2.1 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.4
10-year Treasury notes.................. 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.8
MEMORANDUM
Related program assumptions:
Automatic benefit increases (percent):
Social security and veterans pensions. 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4
Federal employee retirement........... 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4
Food stamps........................... 2.9 1.3 2.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.3
Insured unemployment rate............... 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 361]]
Table 24-4. BENEFICIARY PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR BENEFIT PROGRAMS
(Annual average, in thousands)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2003 -----------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farmer direct payments.................... 1,997 1,957 1,957 1,938 1,918 1,899 1,880
Federal family education loans............ 5,980 6,302 6,556 6,726 6,855 7,216 7,588
Federal direct student loans.............. 2,073 2,163 2,275 2,382 2,507 2,635 2,768
Medicaid/State Children's Health Insurance 46,000 47,900 48,300 48,600 49,000 49,300 49,600
Program..................................
Medicare-eligible military retiree health 1,634 1,682 1,720 1,754 1,788 1,827 1,863
benefits.................................
Medicare:
Hospital insurance...................... 40,467 41,198 41,880 42,561 43,294 44,111 45,053
Supplementary medical insurance......... 38,369 38,928 39,477 40,028 40,619 41,282 42,054
Railroad retirement....................... 629 614 599 585 573 562 553
Federal civil service retirement.......... 2,383 2,386 2,407 2,441 2,473 2,505 2,538
Military retirement....................... 2,006 2,030 2,052 2,074 2,099 2,118 2,132
Unemployment compensation................. 10,340 10,190 10,050 9,930 9,830 9,830 9,910
Food stamps............................... 21,264 23,690 24,872 24,201 23,596 23,077 22,645
Child nutrition........................... 31,194 31,929 32,427 32,941 33,448 33,966 34,494
Foster care and adoption assistance....... 558 584 609 638 668 700 733
Supplemental security income (SSI):
Aged.................................... 1,150 1,134 1,122 1,113 1,107 1,104 1,102
Blind/disabled.......................... 5,403 5,577 5,745 5,877 5,975 6,049 6,116
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, SSI......................... 6,553 6,711 6,867 6,990 7,082 7,153 7,218
Child care and development fund \1\....... 2,500 2,400 2,400 2,300 2,300 2,200 2,200
Social security (OASDI):
Old age and survivor insurance.......... 39,254 39,588 39,969 40,382 40,899 41,524 42,256
Disability insurance.................... 7,330 7,664 7,996 8,302 8,587 8,855 9,082
Veterans compensation:
Veterans................................ 2,445 2,548 2,607 2,691 2,773 2,848 2,897
Survivors (non-veterans)................ 312 323 328 334 341 349 357
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, veterans compensation....... 2,757 2,871 2,935 3,025 3,114 3,197 3,254
Veterans pensions:
Veterans................................ 345 344 343 340 337 334 330
Survivors (non-veterans)................ 226 218 208 199 190 182 175
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, veterans pensions........... 571 562 551 539 527 516 505
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes children served through the CCDF (including TANF transfers) and through funds spent directly on
child care in the Social Services Block Grant and TANF programs.
It is also necessary to make assumptions about the continuation of
expiring programs and provisions. In the estimates provided here,
expiring excise taxes dedicated to a trust fund are extended at current
rates. Certain income tax provisions from the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts,
that were not designed to be temporary in nature, are assumed to be
permanent for purposes of calculating revenue estimates. In general,
mandatory programs with current year spending of at least $50 million
are also assumed to continue. All discretionary programs with enacted
appropriations in the current year are assumed to continue. However,
specific provisions of law that affect mandatory programs (but are not
necessary for program operation) are allowed to expire as scheduled. For
example, medicaid transition assistance will expire mid-way through
2004. The baseline does not assume additional spending under this
authority beyond that point. Table 24-5 provides a listing of mandatory
programs and taxes assumed to continue in the baseline after their
expiration.
Many other important assumptions must be made in order to calculate
the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the timing and
substance of regulations that will be issued over the projection period,
the use of administrative discretion provided under current law, and
other assumptions about the way programs operate. Table 24-5 lists many
of these assumptions and their impact on the baseline estimates. It is
not intended to be an exhaustive listing; the variety and complexity of
Government programs are too great to provide a complete list. Instead,
some of the more important assumptions are shown.
[[Page 362]]
Table 24-5. IMPACT OF REGULATIONS, EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS, AND OTHER ASSUMPTIONS IN THE BASELINE
(In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Category -----------------------------------------------------------------
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGULATIONS
Foster care program:
Administrative claims for children in ......... ......... -82 -87 -91 -96
unlicensed relative homes..................
Information and guidance on implemenation of ......... ......... -2 -5 -5 -5
AFCARS penalties...........................
Old age and survivors insurance (OASI) and
disabilty insurance (DI):
Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency......... 6 18 26 27 18 5
Reduction of Title II benefits under family 15 16 17 18 19 20
maximum in cases of dual entitlement.......
Trial work period........................... 5 4 3 3 2 1
Musculoskeletal system and related criteria. -85 -110 -135 -165 -195 -225
Medicare, HI: \1\
Inpatient Rehabiliation Facilities.......... -20 -50 -70 -70 -180 -230
Inpatient Psychiatric Facilities, ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Prospective Payment System.................
Medicare, HI and SMI: \1\
Consistent reimbursement for bad debt....... ......... -10 -40 -70 -80 -90
Supplemental security income (SSI):
Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency......... -5 -12 -12 -6 -3 -7
Title XVI cross-program recovery............ -40 -30 -15 -15 -15 -15
Student earned income exclusion............. 3 4 4 4 4 5
Musculoskeletal system and related criteria. -15 -20 -25 -25 -30 -35
Interior:
Bureau of Land Management cost recovery fees ......... -4 -4 -4 -4 -4
EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS
Provisions extended in the baseline (effect of
extension):
Spending:
Child care entitlement to States............ ......... 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717
Child nutrition:
Summer food service program............... 308 329 352 374 398 420
State administrative expenses............. 149 156 162 167 175 181
CCC market access, bioenergy and commodity ......... ......... ......... ......... 5,412 10,300
programs...................................
Conservation reserve program................ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 41
Farm security and rural investment:
Conservation security program............. ......... ......... ......... ......... 873 1,046
Environmental quality incentives program.. ......... ......... ......... ......... 1,107 1,116
Farm and ranch lands protection program... ......... ......... ......... ......... 134 136
Wildlife habitat incentives program....... ......... ......... ......... ......... 74 76
Wetlands reserve program.................. ......... ......... ......... ......... 294 218
Food stamps:
Benefit costs............................. ......... ......... ......... ......... 25,994 26,312
State administrative expenses............. ......... ......... ......... ......... 2,553 2,626
Employment and training................... ......... ......... ......... ......... 321 326
Other program costs....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... 70 71
Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico...... ......... ......... ......... ......... 1,518 1,554
Food donations on Indian reservations..... ......... ......... ......... ......... 83 85
The emergency food assistance program ......... ......... ......... ......... 140 140
commodities..............................
Promoting safe and stable families.......... ......... ......... ......... 305 305 305
Temporary assistance for needy families
(TANF) resources:
State family assistance grants (SFAG)..... 6,595 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489
SFAG to territories....................... 31 78 78 78 78 78
Matching grants to territories............ 6 15 15 15 15 15
Bonus to reward high performing States.... 1000 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Bonus to reward decrease in illegitimacy.. 100 100 100 100 100 100
Tribal work program....................... 8 8 8 8 8 8
Census survey of program dynamics......... 5 10 10 10 10 10
Trade adjustment assistance--training and ......... ......... ......... ......... 649 1,143
income support.............................
Trade adjustment assistance--farmers........ ......... ......... ......... ......... 90 90
Veterans compensation
Annual cost-of-living adjustment.......... ......... 242 592 967 1,519 2,185
Revenues:
Excise taxes dedicated to trust funds:
Airport and Airway trust fund taxes....... ......... ......... ......... ......... 11,852 12,536
Aquatic resources trust fund taxes........ ......... ......... 328 338 349 359
Highway trust fund taxes.................. ......... ......... 30,121 30,949 31,720 32,416
Leaking Underground Storage Tank taxes.... ......... 82 202 208 211 217
Certain provisions for the 2001 tax cut and
2003 jobs and growth tax cut:
Revenue effect............................ ......... -11,776 -26,020 -26,321 -25,682 -41,828
Outlay effect............................. ......... ......... 4,265 4,131 4,003 3,936
[[Page 363]]
Provisions not extended in the baseline
(effect of extension):
Spending:
Agriculture recreation fee demonstration ......... ......... -17 -12 -7 -2
project....................................
Customs user fees........................... ......... -820 -1,391 -1,448 -1,507 -1,570
EPA pesticides maintenance fee.............. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... -15
Medicare, SMI:
Medicare low income premium assistance \2\ ......... 136 141 147 152 158
Medicaid:
Transition benefits \3\................... 175 446 488 524 554 580
TANF:
Supplemental grants....................... 128 319 319 319 319 319
Welfare research.......................... 7 15 15 15 15 15
Veterans programs:
Income verification match................. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... -6
Authorize purchase of headstones.......... ......... ......... ......... 2 2 2
OTHER IMPORTANT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS
Child support enforcement (CSE):
Alternative penalties for Family Support Act -166 -203 -188 175 ......... .........
systems and Statewide Disbursement Unit
requirements...............................
Effect of enhanced rate of paternity testing 8 8 8 8 8 8
Food stamps:
Tax offset, recoupment, and general claims -168 -177 -175 -175 -175 -177
collection.................................
Quality control liabilities................. ......... ......... -18 -18 -16 -12
Allocation of administrative costs between -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197
public assistance programs.................
Medicare: \4\
Medicare Advantage.......................... 38,460 49,435 62,558 82,744 92,250 102,607
Inpatient Hospital.......................... 118,552 125,786 124,173 122,175 125,593 130,527
Physicians.................................. 51,125 54,095 51,003 47,606 46,780 45,896
Medicaid:
Financial management recoveries............. -466 -482 -530 -580 -634 -691
Vaccines for Children, total program costs.. 1,208 1,208 1,201 984 1,009 1,028
Allocation of administrative costs between 432 471 509 549 593 640
public assistance programs.................
Remaining upper payment limit-related costs. 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400
Institutional long term care................ 33,805 33,892 36,269 38,657 41,100 43,504
Home and community based institutional 18,457 19,002 22,015 25,539 29,705 34,515
alternatives...............................
Pharmaceuticals (FFS, net of rebates)....... 18,304 20,800 13,951 12,209 13,201 14,349
Managed care (including Medicaid MCOs, PHPs, 29,809 31,853 36,188 40,589 45,032 49,368
PCCM)......................................
State Children's Health Insurance Program 5,232 5,299 5,292 5,494 5,566 5,601
(Title XXI)..................................
Approved Demonstrations: \5\
Medicare, HI:
Mercy Medical SNF
Baseline estimate....................... 5 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 5 1 ......... ......... ......... .........
Premier--Hospital Quality Incentive
Baseline estimate....................... 2,844 3,053 3,267 11 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 2,844 3,053 3,267 11 ......... .........
Medicare, SMI:
Municipal Health.......................... 15 17 19 5 ......... .........
Baseline estimate....................... 30 33 37 10 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate
Diabetes (Telemedicine)
Baseline estimate....................... 7 7 8 8 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 7 7 8 8 ......... .........
United Mine Workers Program--Prescription
Drug Benefits
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 109 120 ......... ......... ......... .........
Smoking Cessation
Baseline estimate....................... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. * ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Home Health Third Party Liability
Baseline estimate....................... 153 110 85 62 59 .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 153 110 85 62 59 .........
BIPA Disease Management
Baseline estimate....................... 101 271 288 144 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 101 270 286 142 ......... .........
Case Management/Lovelace
Baseline estimate....................... 12 2 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 10 2 ......... ......... ......... .........
[[Page 364]]
Coordinated Care
Baseline estimate....................... 177 188 95 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 154 163 82 ......... ......... .........
Medicare: HI and SMI:
Evercare
Baseline estimate....................... 206 69 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 206 69 ......... ......... ......... .........
New York Graduate Medical Education
Baseline estimate....................... 53 53 53 53 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 45 37 26 13 ......... .........
Medicare Lifestyle Modification Program
Baseline estimate....................... 1 1 1 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1 1 1 ......... ......... .........
Medicare+Choice Phase I
Baseline estimate....................... 377 103 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 386 106 ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicare+Choice Phase II
Baseline estimate....................... 859 945 260 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 916 1,008 277 ......... ......... .........
United Mine Workers Program--Health
Benefits
Baseline estimate....................... 366 442 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 343 411 ......... ......... ......... .........
UTAH GME
Baseline estimate....................... 5 5 6 6 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 5 5 6 6 ......... .........
SHMO-ESRD
Baseline estimate....................... 16 16 4 ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 18 18 5 ......... ......... .........
NJHA Hospital Performance Based Incentive
Baseline estimate....................... 260 372 400 107 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 255 365 392 105 ......... .........
S/HMOs--Medicare
Baseline estimate....................... 893 295 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 1,050 347 ......... ......... ......... .........
S/HMO II--Medicare
Baseline estimate....................... 533 172 ......... ......... ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 550 182 ......... ......... ......... .........
Virginia Cardiac Surgery Initiative
Baseline estimate....................... 28 115 118 90 ......... .........
Demonstration estimate.................. 28 114 116 89 ......... .........
Medicaid: \5\
Alabama Family Planning................... 239 202 ......... ......... ......... .........
Arizona AHCCCS............................ 2,515 2,733 3,029 ......... ......... .........
Arkansas (ARKids B)....................... 49 44 ......... ......... ......... .........
Arkansas Family Planning Services......... 169 207 35 ......... ......... .........
Arkansas Cash & Counseling................ 8 8 8 7 ......... .........
Arkansas TEFRA............................ 38 46 57 69 ......... .........
California Family Planning................ 159 27 ......... ......... ......... .........
California--LA County \6\................. 123 65 ......... ......... ......... .........
Colorado Consumer Directed Attendent 4 5 5 6 1 .........
Support..................................
Delaware--Diamond State Health Plan....... 409 456 504 129 ......... .........
District of Columbia HIV.................. 2 10 12 15 ......... .........
District of Columbia Childless Adults 50- 5 5 5 3 ......... .........
64.......................................
Florida Family Planning................... 10 8 8 1 ......... .........
Florida Cash & Counseling................. 49 53 57 62 26 .........
Hawaii Health QUEST....................... 284 143 ......... ......... ......... .........
Kentucky Health Care Partnership Program.. 324 335 28 ......... ......... .........
Maine HIV................................. 7 8 9 7 ......... .........
Maryland (Health Choice).................. 1,282 975 ......... ......... ......... .........
Massachusetts MassHealth.................. 2,428 1,866 ......... ......... ......... .........
Minnesota (Prepaid Med. Assist. Project 117 104 ......... ......... ......... .........
Plus)....................................
Mississippi Family Planning............... 105 115 125 137 109 .........
Missouri Managed Care Plus................ 204 205 204 86 ......... .........
New Jersey Cash & Counseling.............. 4 2 ......... ......... ......... .........
New Mexico--Family Planning Expansion..... 8 9 11 ......... ......... .........
New York (Partnership Plan)............... 9,421 9,753 5,252 ......... ......... .........
Oklahoma Sooner Care...................... 168 843 906 230 ......... .........
[[Page 365]]
Oregon Family Planning.................... 58 65 76 6 ......... .........
Oregon Independent Choices................ 2 2 3 * ......... .........
Rhode Island Rite Care (Medicaid)......... 126 103 ......... ......... ......... .........
South Carolina Family Planning............ 19 7 ......... ......... ......... .........
TennCare II............................... 3,244 3,488 3,865 3,124 ......... .........
Utah (Primary Care Network)............... 81 87 97 79 ......... .........
Vermont Health Access Plan................ 344 208 214 54 ......... .........
Virginia--Family Planning................. 159 165 171 176 ......... .........
Washington (Take Charge/Family Planning).. 179 200 160 ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin Badger Care (Medicaid).......... 19 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin Family Planning................. 23 28 34 40 10 .........
Pharmacy plus (demonstration estimate):
Wisconsin Pharmacy Plus................. 154 183 218 260 ......... .........
Florida Pharmacy Plus................... 87 95 105 93 ......... .........
Illinois Pharmacy Plus.................. 232 298 357 277 ......... .........
South Carolina Pharmacy Plus............ 129 153 179 208 52 .........
State Children's Health Insurance Program
(Title XXI) (demonstration estimates): \5\
Maryland Health Choice \7\................ 126 90 ......... ......... ......... .........
Minnesota Care............................ 64 47 ......... ......... ......... .........
Missouri MC+ \7\.......................... 82 91 103 117 ......... .........
New Jersey FamilyCare..................... 19 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
New Mexico SCHIP \7\...................... 20 23 ......... ......... ......... .........
Rhode Island (SCHIP RiteCare)............. 10 10 ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin (BadgerCare).................... 33 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Health Insurance Flexibility and
Accountability (HIFA) (demonstration
estimate):
Arizona HIFA amendment to AHCCCS (SCHIP 39 41 43 ......... ......... .........
funds)...................................
California HIFA (SCHIP funds)............. 466 487 337 ......... ......... .........
Colorado HIFA Adult Prenatal Coverage 13 14 ......... ......... ......... .........
(SCHIP funds)............................
Illinois HIFA (KidCare Parent Coverage)
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 33 72 106 150 ......... .........
Baseline estimate (Medicaid funds)...... 71 85 113 148 ......... .........
Maine HIFA (Maine Care for Childless
Adults--Medicaid funds)
Baseline estimate......................... 61 57 57 57 ......... .........
New Mexico HIFA (SCHIP funds)............. 13 15 19 22 ......... .........
Oregon HIFA (Oregon Health Plan 2)
Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds).... 30 33 36 6 ......... .........
Baseline estimate (Medicaid funds)...... 1,457 1,558 1,718 1,893 159 .........
Joint Medicare and Medicaid:
Minnesota-Dual Eligibles
Demonstration estimate.................... 88 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Baseline estimate......................... 92 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Wisconsin-Dual Eligibles
Demonstration estimate.................... 97 127 167 ......... ......... .........
Baseline estimate......................... 97 127 167 ......... ......... .........
Massachusetts--Dual Eligibles
Demonstration estimate.................... 11 21 29 35 ......... .........
Baseline estimate......................... 15 28 38 50 ......... .........
OASI, DI, SSI:
Performance of continuing disability reviews -90 -570 -1,150 -1,700 -2,385 -2,990
(baseline levels) (OASI, DI, SSI)..........
Collection of overpayments:
OASI...................................... -640 -650 -650 -650 -650 -650
DI........................................ -460 -498 -498 -498 -498 -498
SSI (federal)............................. -849 -903 -903 -903 -903 -903
Debts written off as uncollectable (no
effect on outlays):
OASI...................................... 108 110 110 110 110 110
DI........................................ 363 393 393 393 393 393
SSI (federal)............................. 511 544 544 544 544 544
OASDI:
Payments to states for vocational 93 100 109 116 124 132
rehabilitation...........................
Research and demonstration projects....... 14 51 74 37 ......... .........
SSI:
Payments from states for state -4,229 -4,314 -4,485 -4,661 -4,762 -4,925
supplemental benefits....................
Payments for state supplemental benefits.. 4,195 4,670 4,485 4,270 4,755 4,910
Fees for administration of State
supplement:
Treasury share.......................... -153 -156 -159 -161 -163 -164
SSA share............................... -120 -121 -128 -135 -142 -151
Research and demonstration projects....... 51 42 28 28 28 29
[[Page 366]]
Payments to states for vocational 89 92 98 106 111 117
rehabilitation...........................
Performance of non-disability -980 -1,800 -1,985 -2,145 -2,290 -2,430
redeterminations (excludes related
overpayment collections reported above)..
Ticket to work grant programs:
Infrastructure grant program................ 15 22 26 27 30 31
Demonstration to maintain independence and 1 6 7 8 10 10
employment.................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* = $500,000 or less.
NA = Not available.
\1\ Medicare regulations reflect gross outlays.
\2\ Current law extends program through September 30, 2004.
\3\ Current law extends program to March 31, 2004.
\4\ Not shown on table are anticipated collections from various state liabilities under current law.
\5\ Baseline estimates reflect costs absent the demonstration; demonstration estimate reflects costs of the
demonstration.
\6\ Budget modified from original agreement for phase-out of waiver funding.
\7\ Estimates reflect costs for SCHIP children under the State's Medicaid 1115.
Current Services Receipts, Outlays, and Budget Authority
Receipts.--Table 24-6 shows baseline receipts by major source. Total
receipts are projected to increase by $245 billion from 2004 to 2005 and
by $599 billion from 2005 to 2009, largely due to assumed increases in
incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation.
Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $116 billion from
2004 to 2005 under current law. This growth of 15.2 percent is primarily
the effect of increased collections resulting from rising personal
incomes and the timing and magnitude of tax changes provided under the
2001 and 2003 tax cuts. Individual income taxes are projected to grow at
an annual rate of 8.5 percent between 2005 and 2009.
Table 24-6. BASELINE RECEIPTS BY SOURCE
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2003 -----------------------------------------------------------------
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes............ 793.7 765.8 882.0 969.4 1,051.5 1,139.6 1,220.1
Corporation income taxes........... 131.8 162.1 222.1 246.8 252.2 258.1 264.9
Social insurance and retirement 713.0 732.4 794.0 834.0 878.6 918.6 960.0
receipts..........................
On-budget........................ 189.1 198.4 218.9 230.9 242.3 251.0 261.1
Off-budget....................... 523.8 534.0 575.1 603.1 636.3 667.6 698.9
Excise taxes....................... 67.5 70.2 73.2 74.8 76.9 79.1 81.3
Other.............................. 76.4 80.8 80.3 89.9 94.5 101.7 109.3
Adjustment for revenue uncertainty. ......... -20.0 -15.0 ......... ......... ......... .........
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total.............................. 1,782.3 1,791.2 2,036.6 2,214.9 2,353.7 2,497.1 2,635.6
On-budget........................ 1,258.5 1,257.2 1,461.5 1,611.7 1,717.4 1,829.5 1,936.7
Off-budget....................... 523.8 534.0 575.1 603.1 636.3 667.6 698.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corporation income taxes under current law are estimated to grow by
$60 billion or 37.1 percent between 2004 and 2005, in large part due to
increasing corporate profits and the timing and magnitude of tax changes
provided in the 2002 economic stimulus bill and the 2001 and 2003 tax
cuts. Corporation income taxes are projected to increase at an annual
rate of 4.5 percent from 2005 to 2009, reflecting higher corporate
profits.
Social insurance and retirement receipts are estimated to increase by
$62 billion between 2004 and 2005, and by an additional $166 billion
between 2005 and 2009. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total
wages and salaries paid, and scheduled increases in the social security
taxable earnings base from $87,900 in 2004 to $106,200 in 2009.
Excise taxes are estimated to increase by $11 billion from 2004 to
2009, in large part due to increased economic activity. Other baseline
receipts (estate and gift taxes, customs duties, and miscellaneous
receipts) are projected to increase by $28 billion from 2004 to 2009.
The current services revenue estimates reflect a downward adjustment
for revenue uncertainty of $20 billion in 2004 and $15 billion in 2005.
These amounts reflect an additional adjustment to receipts beyond what
the economic and tax models forecast that has been made in the interest
of cautious and prudent forecasting.
Outlays.--Current services outlays are estimated to grow from $2,319
billion in 2004 to $2,397 billion in 2005, a 3.4 percent increase.
Between 2004 and 2009,
[[Page 367]]
they are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.2 percent.
Outlays for discretionary programs remain almost level from 2004 to
2005, largely reflecting increases in resources to keep pace with
inflation offset by a reduction from lower spending for the war.
Discretionary outlays actually decline from 2005 to 2006, largely from
continued fall off in war spending. Reflecting increases in resources to
keep pace with inflation, outlays rise each year thereafter, reaching
$933 billion in 2009. Entitlement and other mandatory programs are
estimated to grow from $1,254 billion in 2004 to $1,309 billion in 2005,
and to $1,618 billion in 2009, due in large part to changes in the
number of beneficiaries and to automatic cost-of-living adjustments and
other adjustments for inflation. Social security outlays grow from $492
billion in 2004 to $608 billion in 2009, an average annual rate of 4.3
percent. Medicare and medicaid are projected to grow at annual average
rates of 9.4 and 6.9 percent, respectively, outpacing inflation.
Offsetting growth in other areas, unemployment compensation declines
from $46 billion in 2004 to $40 billion in 2005, reflecting lower
unemployment rates as economic growth increases. Other areas of growth
are federal employee retirement and other income security programs,
including food assistance, the earned income and child tax credits, and
the supplemental security income program.
Net interest payments to the public total $156 billion in 2004 and
$178 billion in 2005. They rise each year reaching $296 billion in 2009.
This pattern reflects increased borrowing requirements as well as
changes in the mix of debt issuance and interest rates over the period.
Tables 24-8 and 24-9 show current services outlays by function and by
agency, respectively. A more detailed presentation of outlays (by
function, subfunction, category, and program) appears on the CD-ROM that
accompanies this volume.
Budget authority.--Tables 24-10 and 24-11 show current services
estimates of budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. A
more detailed presentation of budget authority with program level
estimates appears on the CD-ROM that accompanies this volume.
Table 24-7. CHANGE IN BASELINE OUTLAY ESTIMATES BY CATEGORY
(Dollar amounts In billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change 2004 to 2005 Change 2004 to 2009
--------------------------------------------
2004 2005 2009 Average
Amount Percent Amount Annual
Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
Discretionary:
Defense............................................................... 451.6 438.8 442.8 -12.8 -2.8% -8.8 -0.4%
Nondefense............................................................ 456.6 470.8 489.7 14.2 3.1% 33.1 1.4%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary................................................. 908.2 909.6 932.5 1.4 0.2% 24.3 0.5%
Mandatory:
Medicaid.............................................................. 177.1 183.2 246.9 6.1 3.4% 69.8 6.9%
Medicare.............................................................. 265.9 289.6 417.7 23.7 8.9% 151.7 9.4%
Federal employee retirement and disability............................ 89.1 92.7 107.5 3.6 4.0% 18.4 3.8%
Unemployment compensation............................................. 45.6 40.5 45.4 -5.1 -11.2% -0.2 -0.1%
Other income security programs........................................ 151.4 161.5 171.2 10.1 6.7% 19.8 2.5%
Social Security....................................................... 492.0 510.5 608.1 18.5 3.8% 116.2 4.3%
Other mandatory programs.............................................. 92.4 93.3 95.8 0.9 0.9% 3.4 0.7%
Undistributed offsetting receipts..................................... -59.3 -62.2 -75.0 -2.8 4.8% -15.6 4.8%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory..................................................... 1,254.2 1,309.1 1,617.6 54.9 4.4% 363.4 5.2%
Net interest............................................................ 156.3 178.0 296.4 21.7 13.9% 140.1 13.7%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays............................................................. 2,318.7 2,396.7 2,846.6 78.0 3.4% 527.8 4.2%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 368]]
Table 24-8. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2003 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military............................ 387.3 434.8 420.6 399.1 402.6 414.6 424.1
Other...................................................... 17.6 18.9 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.9 20.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense.................................... 404.9 453.7 440.3 418.8 422.3 434.5 444.3
International affairs........................................ 21.2 34.2 36.6 29.3 26.8 27.0 27.5
General science, space, and technology....................... 20.9 22.3 23.8 23.7 24.5 25.0 25.4
Energy....................................................... -0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
Natural resources and environment............................ 29.7 31.7 32.5 33.6 35.3 36.2 37.0
Agriculture.................................................. 22.6 20.1 22.4 21.3 21.2 21.0 21.2
Commerce and housing credit.................................. -1.6 7.7 3.8 -1.2 -0.4 -0.7 0.1
On-Budget.................................................. (3.6) (12.7) (4.1) (2.8) (3.6) (4.0) (4.3)
Off-Budget................................................. (-5.2) (-5.0) (-0.2) (-4.0) (-3.9) (-4.7) (-4.3)
Transportation............................................... 67.1 68.2 69.5 70.1 71.1 72.5 74.5
Community and regional development........................... 18.8 18.8 17.3 16.2 16.7 15.8 15.7
Education, training, employment, and social services......... 82.6 87.2 89.5 89.4 90.2 91.4 93.2
Health....................................................... 219.6 243.3 254.2 266.0 283.6 304.6 326.6
Medicare..................................................... 249.4 270.5 295.2 342.1 378.0 399.6 424.1
Income security.............................................. 334.4 339.5 348.8 353.6 357.4 366.5 373.8
Social security.............................................. 474.7 496.2 514.8 533.5 556.6 581.3 613.0
On-Budget.................................................. (13.3) (14.3) (15.1) (16.4) (17.9) (20.5) (21.5)
Off-Budget................................................. (461.4) (481.9) (499.7) (517.1) (538.6) (560.8) (591.5)
Veterans benefits and services............................... 57.0 60.5 68.3 69.1 69.4 75.8 79.6
Administration of justice.................................... 35.4 41.6 42.7 43.5 43.2 44.5 46.8
General government........................................... 23.0 25.4 19.9 20.1 20.9 21.8 22.3
Net interest................................................. 153.1 156.3 178.0 213.2 245.5 273.1 296.4
On-Budget.................................................. (236.6) (242.6) (269.9) (313.3) (355.6) (395.5) (433.1)
Off-Budget................................................. (-83.5) (-86.3) (-91.9) (-100.1) (-110.2) (-122.4) (-136.6)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... -1.2 -1.2 ........... ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............ -39.8 -44.1 -46.1 -48.3 -50.9 -53.6 -56.5
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)........... -9.6 -10.7 -11.2 -11.8 -12.5 -13.5 -14.4
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf......... -5.0 -4.6 -4.8 -5.6 -5.6 -5.7 -5.7
Sale of major assets....................................... ........... ........... ........... -0.3 ........... ........... ...........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts.................... ........... ........... -0.1 -9.0 -11.2 -4.2 -*
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts................... -54.4 -59.3 -62.2 -75.0 -80.2 -77.0 -76.6
On-Budget................................................ (-44.8) (-48.7) (-51.0) (-63.2) (-67.7) (-63.5) (-62.2)
Off-Budget............................................... (-9.6) (-10.7) (-11.2) (-11.8) (-12.5) (-13.5) (-14.4)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,157.6 2,318.7 2,396.7 2,467.7 2,582.5 2,714.7 2,846.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Budget.................................................. (1,794.6) (1,938.7) (2,000.4) (2,066.5) (2,170.5) (2,294.4) (2,410.4)
Off-Budget................................................. (363.0) (380.0) (396.3) (401.2) (412.0) (420.2) (436.2)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
[[Page 369]]
Table 24-9. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2003 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch........................................... 3.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5
Judicial Branch.............................................. 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3
Agriculture.................................................. 72.4 77.7 82.8 82.4 83.4 84.6 86.3
Commerce..................................................... 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.8
Defense--Military............................................ 388.9 435.7 420.8 399.1 402.6 414.6 424.1
Education.................................................... 57.4 62.8 64.4 64.2 64.7 65.4 66.6
Energy....................................................... 19.4 20.6 21.8 21.9 21.9 22.2 22.6
Health and Human Services.................................... 505.3 547.7 581.9 639.8 692.8 734.4 780.5
Homeland Security............................................ 32.0 30.7 30.8 30.8 31.6 31.7 31.9
Housing and Urban Development................................ 37.5 46.2 39.6 39.4 40.4 36.9 33.9
Interior..................................................... 9.2 10.0 9.8 10.6 11.3 11.5 11.7
Justice...................................................... 21.5 23.5 23.4 23.5 22.6 23.3 24.9
Labor........................................................ 69.6 59.9 54.9 55.0 56.0 58.2 61.0
State........................................................ 9.3 11.3 10.7 10.3 10.6 10.7 11.0
Transportation............................................... 50.8 58.0 59.2 59.8 60.4 61.6 63.2
Treasury..................................................... 367.0 369.0 399.3 448.4 495.5 541.0 585.6
Veterans Affairs............................................. 56.9 60.4 68.2 68.9 69.2 75.6 79.4
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works.............................. 4.8 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3
Other Defense Civil Programs................................. 39.9 40.3 40.5 40.8 41.2 41.6 41.8
Environmental Protection Agency.............................. 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.8 9.0 9.0
Executive Office of the President............................ 0.4 6.6 9.9 4.2 1.1 0.6 0.4
General Services Administration.............................. 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
International Assistance Programs............................ 13.5 17.4 15.8 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.3
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................ 14.6 14.6 15.9 15.6 16.3 16.6 16.9
National Science Foundation.................................. 4.7 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0
Office of Personnel Management............................... 54.1 57.6 60.6 63.7 65.8 69.2 72.5
Small Business Administration................................ 1.6 4.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
Social Security Administration............................... 507.7 530.5 553.4 570.7 592.3 622.2 655.3
On-Budget.................................................. (46.3) (48.6) (53.7) (53.6) (53.6) (61.4) (63.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (461.4) (481.9) (499.7) (517.1) (538.6) (560.8) (591.5)
Other Independent Agencies................................... 6.9 11.4 18.6 13.6 14.6 14.6 15.3
On-Budget.................................................. (12.2) (16.4) (18.8) (17.6) (18.6) (19.2) (19.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (-5.2) (-5.0) (-0.2) (-4.0) (-3.9) (-4.7) (-4.3)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... -1.2 -1.2 ........... ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................ -210.4 -211.4 -221.5 -245.0 -263.3 -275.8 -293.7
On-Budget.................................................. (-117.3) (-114.5) (-118.3) (-133.2) (-140.6) (-140.0) (-142.7)
Off-Budget................................................. (-93.1) (-96.9) (-103.1) (-111.9) (-122.7) (-135.9) (-151.0)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,157.6 2,318.7 2,396.7 2,467.7 2,582.5 2,714.7 2,846.6
On-Budget.................................................. (1,794.6) (1,938.7) (2,000.4) (2,066.5) (2,170.5) (2,294.4) (2,410.4)
Off-Budget................................................. (363.0) (380.0) (396.3) (401.2) (412.0) (420.2) (436.2)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 370]]
Table 24-10. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2003 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military............................ 437.9 441.7 390.0 399.4 409.5 420.4 431.9
Other...................................................... 18.3 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense.................................... 456.2 460.5 409.0 418.7 429.1 440.4 452.4
International affairs........................................ 31.7 41.3 25.2 26.9 27.7 28.5 29.3
General science, space, and technology....................... 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.2 25.7
Energy....................................................... 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.2
Natural resources and environment............................ 31.8 32.2 33.5 33.9 35.3 36.2 37.7
Agriculture.................................................. 24.7 19.5 22.7 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.4
Commerce and housing credit.................................. 14.9 14.0 9.0 8.6 10.8 11.0 10.8
On-Budget.................................................. (9.5) (11.8) (9.3) (8.1) (9.7) (10.1) (10.3)
Off-Budget................................................. (5.4) (2.2) (-0.3) (0.4) (1.0) (1.0) (0.4)
Transportation............................................... 68.7 69.4 70.1 70.9 71.6 72.2 72.9
Community and regional development........................... 16.7 16.3 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6
Education, training, employment, and social services......... 87.6 87.9 90.8 91.4 92.0 93.4 95.2
Health....................................................... 231.7 251.1 250.6 265.7 284.2 305.3 329.7
Medicare..................................................... 249.9 271.0 295.1 342.5 377.7 399.6 424.5
Income security.............................................. 329.5 336.4 342.2 349.1 353.7 366.4 380.8
Social security.............................................. 476.6 497.8 516.2 535.1 558.6 583.5 615.9
On-Budget.................................................. (13.3) (14.3) (15.1) (16.4) (17.9) (20.5) (21.5)
Off-Budget................................................. (463.3) (483.5) (501.1) (518.7) (540.7) (563.0) (594.4)
Veterans benefits and services............................... 59.1 60.4 66.0 69.6 72.9 76.5 80.4
Administration of justice.................................... 39.7 42.7 42.0 42.2 43.6 44.9 47.2
General government........................................... 25.0 23.9 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.3 23.0
Net interest................................................. 153.2 156.2 178.0 213.2 245.5 273.1 296.4
On-Budget.................................................. (236.7) (242.5) (269.9) (313.3) (355.6) (395.5) (433.1)
Off-Budget................................................. (-83.5) (-86.3) (-91.9) (-100.1) (-110.2) (-122.4) (-136.6)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... -1.2 -1.2 ........... ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............ -39.8 -44.1 -46.1 -48.3 -50.9 -53.6 -56.5
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)........... -9.6 -10.7 -11.2 -11.8 -12.5 -13.5 -14.4
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf......... -5.0 -4.6 -4.8 -5.6 -5.6 -5.7 -5.7
Sale of major assets....................................... ........... ........... ........... -0.3 ........... ........... ...........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts.................... ........... ........... -0.1 -9.0 -11.2 -4.2 -*
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts................... -54.4 -59.3 -62.2 -75.0 -80.2 -77.0 -76.6
On-Budget................................................ (-44.8) (-48.7) (-51.0) (-63.2) (-67.7) (-63.5) (-62.2)
Off-Budget............................................... (-9.6) (-10.7) (-11.2) (-11.8) (-12.5) (-13.5) (-14.4)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,266.2 2,346.1 2,349.0 2,476.2 2,606.8 2,741.2 2,885.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Budget.................................................. (1,890.6) (1,957.3) (1,951.2) (2,068.9) (2,187.7) (2,313.1) (2,441.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (375.5) (388.8) (397.7) (407.3) (419.0) (428.1) (443.8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMORANDUM
Discretionary budget authority:
National defense........................................... 455.0 458.6 407.5 417.2 427.6 438.8 450.7
International.............................................. 33.5 48.6 27.3 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.6
Domestic................................................... 361.0 367.5 376.9 385.9 396.1 406.3 418.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total........................................................ 849.4 874.7 811.7 830.8 851.9 874.0 898.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
[[Page 371]]
Table 24-11. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY
(in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2003 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch........................................... 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6
Judicial Branch.............................................. 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4
Agriculture.................................................. 78.4 78.4 85.4 85.6 86.9 88.0 89.9
Commerce..................................................... 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9
Defense--Military............................................ 439.5 442.7 390.0 399.4 409.5 420.4 431.9
Education.................................................... 63.3 63.3 65.7 65.8 66.0 67.0 68.3
Energy....................................................... 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.8
Health and Human Services.................................... 515.9 556.4 573.9 638.6 692.4 734.7 784.3
Homeland Security............................................ 30.8 28.8 31.4 30.1 30.8 31.6 34.6
Housing and Urban Development................................ 34.4 34.7 35.0 35.1 35.9 36.6 37.4
Interior..................................................... 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.8
Justice...................................................... 23.7 24.9 23.0 22.1 22.8 23.5 25.2
Labor........................................................ 69.1 60.0 54.7 55.0 56.1 57.9 60.4
State........................................................ 10.3 10.6 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.1
Transportation............................................... 54.4 59.4 59.8 60.3 60.8 61.1 61.5
Treasury..................................................... 367.9 369.6 400.7 449.7 496.7 542.0 586.7
Veterans Affairs............................................. 58.9 60.3 65.8 69.5 72.7 76.3 80.1
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works.............................. 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3
Other Defense Civil Programs................................. 40.0 40.0 40.5 40.8 41.2 41.6 41.8
Environmental Protection Agency.............................. 7.9 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.3
Executive Office of the President............................ 2.6 18.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
General Services Administration.............................. 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
International Assistance Programs............................ 18.5 13.4 14.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................ 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0
National Science Foundation.................................. 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1
Office of Personnel Management............................... 57.3 60.6 63.4 66.5 69.0 72.2 75.7
Small Business Administration................................ 1.6 4.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
Social Security Administration............................... 509.4 532.0 554.1 572.3 594.7 624.4 658.2
On-Budget.................................................. (46.2) (48.5) (53.0) (53.6) (54.0) (61.4) (63.8)
Off-Budget................................................. (463.3) (483.5) (501.1) (518.7) (540.7) (563.0) (594.4)
Other Independent Agencies................................... 19.8 18.4 18.2 19.8 21.3 22.1 22.3
On-Budget.................................................. (14.5) (16.2) (18.4) (19.4) (20.3) (21.2) (21.9)
Off-Budget................................................. (5.4) (2.2) (-0.3) (0.4) (1.0) (1.0) (0.4)
Allowances................................................... ........... ........... ........... -1.2 -1.2 ........... ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................ -210.4 -211.4 -221.5 -245.0 -263.3 -275.8 -293.7
On-Budget.................................................. (-117.3) (-114.5) (-118.3) (-133.2) (-140.6) (-140.0) (-142.7)
Off-Budget................................................. (-93.1) (-96.9) (-103.1) (-111.9) (-122.7) (-135.9) (-151.0)
==========================================================================================
Total........................................................ 2,266.2 2,346.1 2,349.0 2,476.2 2,606.8 2,741.2 2,885.5
On-Budget.................................................. (1,890.6) (1,957.3) (1,951.2) (2,068.9) (2,187.7) (2,313.1) (2,441.6)
Off-Budget................................................. (375.5) (388.8) (397.7) (407.3) (419.0) (428.1) (443.8)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 373]]
======================================================================
THE BUDGET SYSTEM AND CONCEPTS
========================================================================