[Analytical Perspectives]
[Current Services Estimates]
[24. Current Services Estimates]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]


  There has long been a desire to have a neutral benchmark against which 
policy proposals can be measured. Since the early 1970s when the first 
requirements for the calculation of a ``current services'' baseline were 
enacted, a variety of concepts and measures have been employed. In 
recent years, the current services baseline has been defined to be 
identical to the baseline required by the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA). 
However, that baseline has some serious technical flaws, which 
compromise its ability to serve as a neutral measure. This section 
provides detailed estimates of a baseline that correct these flaws. It 
also discusses alternative formulations for the baseline.
  Ideally, a current services baseline would provide a projection of 
estimated receipts, outlays, deficits or surpluses, and budget authority 
needed to reflect this year's enacted policies and programs for each 
year in the future. Because such a concept would be nearly impossible to 
calculate across all segments of the government, the baseline has become 
largely a mechanical construct. The following section discusses the 
construct as it applies to different types of programs. The baseline is 
not intended to be a prediction of the final outcome of the annual 
budget process, nor is it a proposed budget. By itself, the current 
services baseline commits no one to any particular policy, and it does 
not constrain the choices available. The commitments or constraints 
reflected in the current services estimates are based on the tax and 
spending policies contained in current law.
  The current services baseline is used in a variety of ways: It can 
warn of future problems, either for Government fiscal policy as a whole 
or for individual tax and spending programs. It provides a starting 
point for formulating the annual budget. It is a ``policy-neutral'' 
benchmark against which the President's Budget and other budget 
proposals can be compared to see the magnitude of the proposed changes. 
The following table shows current services estimates of receipts, 
outlays, and surpluses for 2003 through 2009. They are based on the 
economic assumptions described later in this chapter. The estimates are 
shown on a unified budget basis. The off-budget receipts and outlays of 
the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service Fund are added to 
the on-budget receipts and outlays to calculate the unified budget 
totals. The table also shows the current services estimates by major 
component. The BEA baseline deficits are shown as a memorandum in the 
table.

                                      Table 24-1.  BASELINE CATEGORY TOTALS
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2003       2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts...........................    1,782.3    1,791.2    2,036.6    2,214.9    2,353.7    2,497.1    2,635.6
Outlays:
  Discretionary:
    Defense........................      404.9      451.6      438.8      417.3      420.8      432.9      442.8
    Nondefense.....................      420.8      456.6      470.8      467.6      475.4      481.1      489.7
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, discretionary..........      825.7      908.2      909.6      884.9      896.2      914.1      932.5
  Mandatory:
    Social Security................      470.5      492.0      510.5      529.1      552.0      576.6      608.1
    Medicare.......................      245.7      265.9      289.6      336.4      372.1      393.4      417.7
    Medicaid and SCHIP.............      165.0      182.3      188.5      198.4      214.0      232.7      252.5
    Other mandatory................      297.6      314.0      320.5      305.8      302.8      324.7      339.3
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, mandatory..............    1,178.9    1,254.2    1,309.1    1,369.7    1,440.9    1,527.5    1,617.6
  Net interest.....................      153.1      156.3      178.0      213.2      245.5      273.1      296.4
Total outlays......................    2,157.6    2,318.7    2,396.7    2,467.7    2,582.5    2,714.7    2,846.6
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Unified deficit..................     -375.3     -527.5     -360.1     -252.9     -228.9     -217.5     -211.0
    On-budget......................     -536.1     -681.5     -538.9     -454.8     -453.1     -464.9     -473.7
    Off-budget.....................      160.8      154.0      178.8      201.9      224.2      247.4      262.7
 
Memorandum:
  BEA baseline deficit.............     -375.3     -527.5     -393.3     -305.3     -291.8     -287.8     -270.9
    Correct growth rates for pay...  .........  .........        1.8        2.2        2.3        2.4        2.5
    Do not extend emergencies......  .........  .........       42.8       78.5       86.3       89.3       91.5
    Extend certain tax provisions..  .........  .........      -11.8      -30.3      -30.5      -29.7      -45.8
    Related debt service...........  .........  .........        0.4        2.0        4.7        8.2       11.6
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Current baseline deficit.........     -375.3     -527.5     -360.1     -252.8     -228.9     -217.5     -211.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 358]]

                     Conceptual Basis for Estimates

  Receipts and outlays are divided into two categories that are 
important for calculating the current services estimates: those 
controlled by authorizing legislation (direct spending and receipts) and 
those controlled through the annual appropriations process 
(discretionary spending). Different estimating rules apply to each 
category. There are numerous alternative rules that could be used to 
develop current services. The next section discusses some alternatives 
that might be considered.
  Direct spending and receipts.--Direct spending includes the major 
entitlement programs, such as social security, medicare, medicaid, 
Federal employee retirement, unemployment compensation, food stamps and 
other means-tested entitlements. It also includes such programs as 
deposit insurance and farm price and income supports, where the 
Government is legally obligated to make payments under certain 
conditions. Receipts and direct spending are alike in that they involve 
ongoing activities that generally operate under permanent authority 
(they do not require annual authorization), and the underlying statutes 
generally specify the tax rates or benefit levels that must be collected 
or paid, and who must pay or who is eligible to receive benefits. The 
current services baseline assumes that receipts and direct spending 
programs continue in the future as specified by current law. In most 
cases, that is what will occur without enactment of new legislation. The 
budgetary impact of anticipated regulations and administrative actions 
that are permissible under current law are also reflected in the 
estimates.
  If a baseline is intended to reflect current law, then the provisions 
of law providing spending authority and the authority to collect taxes 
or other receipts that expire under current law should be assumed to 
expire. However, the current services baseline assumes extension of 
several types of authority:
    Expiring provisions affecting excise taxes dedicated to a 
          trust fund are assumed to be extended at current rates. During 
          the projection period of 2004 through 2009, taxes deposited in 
          the Leaking Underground Storage Tank trust fund, which are 
          scheduled to expire on March 31, 2005, taxes deposited in the 
          Highway and Aquatic Resources trust funds, which expire on 
          September 30, 2005, and taxes deposited in the Airport and 
          Airway trust fund, which expire on September 30, 2007, are the 
          only taxes affected by this exception.
    Direct spending programs that will expire under current law 
          are assumed to be extended if their 2004 outlays exceed $50 
          million. For example, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families 
          and child care entitlement to States, which expired at the end 
          of 2002 and have been temporarily extended several times, are 
          now scheduled to expire in March, 2004. The baseline estimates 
          provided here assume continuation of these programs throughout 
          the projection period. However, programs enacted after the 
          enactment of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 that are 
          explicitly temporary in nature expire in the baseline even if 
          their current year outlays exceed the $50 million threshold.
    Certain provisions in the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts that were 
          clearly not intended to be temporary are assumed to continue 
          past their expiration date. These provisions include tax rate 
          reductions and marriage penalty tax relief. Unlike the two 
          extensions discussed above, the BEA baseline definitions, 
          developed before the enactment of the 2001 and 2003 tax acts, 
          does not provide for extension of these provisions.
  Discretionary spending.--Discretionary programs differ in one 
important aspect from direct spending programs--Congress usually 
provides spending authority for discretionary programs one year at a 
time. The spending authority is normally provided in the form of annual 
appropriations. Absent appropriations of additional funds in the future, 
discretionary programs would cease to exist after existing balances were 
spent. If the baseline was intended to reflect current law, then a 
baseline would only reflect the expenditure of remaining balances from 
appropriations laws. Instead the current services baseline provides a 
mechanical definition for discretionary programs that is somewhat 
arbitrary. The definition used here attempts to keep discretionary 
spending level in real terms. For 2004, the current services estimates 
for discretionary programs are based on enacted appropriations for the 
Departments of Defense and Homeland Security and the conference report 
on the Consolidated Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2004 for the 
remaining agencies. The estimates assume that the conference report will 
be adopted as reported. For 2005 through 2009, funding for most accounts 
is equal to this 2004 level adjusted for inflation. The inflation rates 
used here are similar to those required by the BEA but adjust to remove 
the overcompensation for federal pay inherent in the BEA definition. 
Unlike the BEA requirements, these current services estimates assume 
that federal pay raises are effective in January, as required under 
current law. At the time the BEA was enacted, it ignored the nearly 
contemporaneous enactment of the Federal Employees Compensation Act of 
1991 that shifted the effective date of federal employee pay raises from 
October to January. In addition, the baseline estimates presented here 
assume that any emergency appropriation enacted for 2004 is a one-time 
only event. The BEA requires that the baseline assume funding for 
emergencies repeatedly through the projection period.

                  Alternative Formulations of Baseline

  Throughout much of U.S. history, budget proposals were often compared 
to either the President's request or the previous year's budget. In the 
early 1970s, development of a baseline was pursued in attempt to provide 
a more neutral benchmark for comparisons. The Congressional Budget Act 
of 1974 included a requirement that OMB and the Congressional Budget 
Office (CBO)

[[Page 359]]

provide estimates of a current services baseline. The definition of the 
baseline was very general and specific guidance was not provided.
  Since these estimates have been developed, current services for direct 
spending programs and receipts were generally estimated based on laws 
currently in place. Major direct spending programs were assumed to 
continue past their expiration date. The initial budget enforcement 
legislation, enacted in 1990, specifically required that programs sunset 
on schedule in the baseline. This provision was subsequently amended to 
require extension of most major direct spending programs. However, in 
the case of receipts, the BEA requires only the extension of trust fund 
excise taxes.
  For discretionary programs, the proper definition of current services 
was more ambiguous. OMB, for most accounts, applied an inflation 
adjustment to the current year budgetary resource. However, numerous 
exceptions were made to give a better picture of providing the same 
services in the future. Programs that were clearly temporary in nature 
were allowed to expire. Some programs were allowed to grow along a path 
that reflected development of a project: design, followed by 
construction, followed by operating expenses. CBO also made similar 
adjustments to their estimates. In addition, they produced a baseline 
that straightlined budgetary resources rather than apply an inflation 
adjustment. With enactment of budget enforcement legislation in the 
1990s, a precise definition of baseline for discretionary programs was 
instituted and all discretionary programs were estimated based on 
precise rules.
  It is clear, however, that a number of ``current services'' 
definitions could be developed that differ for those presented in this 
chapter:
    Extend provisions affecting parts of mandatory programs. 
          Currently, mandatory programs that have current year outlays 
          of over $50 million are generally assumed to continue. 
          However, provisions of law that affect parts of mandatory 
          programs, even those that have been consistently extended in 
          the past, are assumed to expire as scheduled. This creates an 
          upward bias on spending as extensions of programs are not 
          scored as increasing outlays where extension of savings 
          provisions are counted as savings and provide offsets for 
          other spending.
    Do not extend any authorizing laws that expire. If all 
          mandatory programs were assumed to expire as scheduled, the 
          deficit in 2005 would be $21 billion lower than the current 
          estimates and deficits for 2005 through 2009 would be $208 
          billion lower. (See the section below on major program 
          assumptions for details on mandatory program extensions 
          assumed in the estimates.) If excise taxes were allowed to 
          expire, the deficit would be $165 billion higher over the 
          period 2005 through 2009. If certain provisions of the 2001 
          and 2003 Tax Acts were assumed to expire, the deficit would be 
          $162 billion lower over the period.
    Straightline appropriations. If all discretionary budgetary 
          resources were to be the same in each year in the projection 
          period as provided for the current year, total outlays would 
          be $13 lower in 2005 and $271 billion lower over the period 
          2005 through 2009.
    Do not extend any appropriations. The current treatment of 
          expiring provisions is inconsistent with the treatment of 
          discretionary spending. All discretionary spending continues 
          whether there is authorization for the program or not and 
          whether funds have already been provided or not. In nearly all 
          cases, funds for discretionary programs have not been provided 
          in advance for years beyond the current year. If rules 
          consistent with the treatment of other expiring provisions 
          were applied to discretionary spending, no new budgetary 
          resources would be provided. Thus, the only discretionary 
          outlays that would be included in the baseline would be the 
          lagged spending from the current year budgetary resource. If 
          this rule were followed, outlays in 2005 would be reduced by 
          $570 billion relative to the current estimates. Clearly this 
          would provide an unrealistic estimate of future spending and 
          the government's future fiscal position.

[[Page 360]]

  Table 24-2 provides estimates for a variety of changes in baseline 
definitions that could be considered.

                                  Table 24-2.  ALTERNATIVE BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
                                            (in billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009    2005-2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current baseline deficit...........       -527       -360       -253       -229       -218       -211     -1,270
 
Alternative assumptions: \1\
  Extend provisions affecting parts         -1         -*          *          *          *          1          2
   of mandatory programs...........
 
  Do not extend any authorizing
   laws:
    Mandatory spending \2\.........          8         21         22         24         66         76        208
    Trust fund excise taxes........  .........         -*        -31        -33        -48        -52       -165
    Certain provisions of the 2001   .........         12         31         33         34         52        162
     and 2003 Tax Acts.............
 
  Straightline appropriations......  .........         13         30         50         75        102        271
 
  Do not extend any appropriations.  .........        570        881      1,022      1,127      1,222      4,822
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ A positive number represents a reduction in the deficit. All estimates include related debt service impacts.
\2\ Estimates provided here are the totals for the illustrative provisions shown in Table 24-5. This is not a
  complete listing of all provisions that expire.
* $500 million or less.

                          Economic Assumptions

  The current services estimates are based on the same economic 
assumptions as the President's Budget, which are based on enactment of 
the President's Budget proposals. The economy and the budget interact. 
Changes in economic conditions significantly alter the estimates of tax 
receipts, unemployment benefits, entitlement payments that are 
automatically adjusted for changes in cost-of-living (COLAs), income 
support programs for low-income individuals, and interest on the Federal 
debt. In turn, Government tax and spending policies influence prices, 
economic growth, consumption, savings, and investment. Because of these 
interactions, it would be reasonable, from an economic perspective, to 
assume different economic paths for the current services baseline and 
the President's Budget. However, this would diminish the value of 
current services estimates as a benchmark for measuring proposed policy 
changes, because it would then be difficult to separate the effects of 
proposed policy changes from the effects of different economic 
assumptions. By using the same economic assumptions for current services 
and the President's Budget, this potential source of confusion is 
eliminated. The economic assumptions underlying both the budget and the 
current service estimates are summarized in Table 24-3. The economic 
outlook underlying these assumptions is discussed in greater detail in 
Chapter 2 of this volume.

                     Major Programmatic Assumptions

  A number of programmatic assumptions must be made in order to 
calculate the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the 
number of beneficiaries who will receive payments from the major benefit 
programs and annual cost-of-living adjustments in the indexed programs. 
Assumptions on baseline caseload projections for the major benefit 
programs are shown in Table 24-4. Assumptions about various automatic 
cost-of-living-adjustments are shown in Table 24-3.

                                     

                                  Table 24-3.  SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
                                   (Fiscal years; dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              2003      2004      2005      2006      2007      2008      2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
    Current dollars.......................    10,828    11,466    12,042    12,641    13,279    13,973    14,702
    Real, chained (2000) dollars).........    10,288    10,753    11,154    11,536    11,919    12,306    12,690
  Percent change, year over year:
    Current dollars.......................       4.4       5.9       5.0       5.0       5.0       5.2       5.2
    Real, chained (2000) dollars).........       2.7       4.5       3.7       3.4       3.3       3.2       3.1
Inflation measures (percent change, year
 over year):
    GDP chained price index...............       1.6       1.3       1.3       1.5       1.7       1.9       2.0
    Consumer price index (all urban)......       2.4       1.6       1.4       1.7       2.0       2.3       2.5
Unemployment rate, civilian (percent).....       6.0       5.7       5.5       5.3       5.2       5.1       5.1
Interest rates (percent):
  91-day Treasury bills...................       1.1       1.1       2.1       3.1       3.8       4.3       4.4
  10-year Treasury notes..................       3.9       4.5       4.9       5.3       5.5       5.7       5.8
 
                MEMORANDUM
 
Related program assumptions:
  Automatic benefit increases (percent):
    Social security and veterans pensions.       1.4       2.1       1.3       1.5       1.8       2.1       2.4
    Federal employee retirement...........       1.4       2.1       1.3       1.5       1.8       2.1       2.4
    Food stamps...........................       2.9       1.3       2.1       1.5       1.7       2.1       2.3
  Insured unemployment rate...............       2.8       2.7       2.5       2.4       2.3       2.3       2.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 361]]


                         Table 24-4.  BENEFICIARY PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR BENEFIT PROGRAMS
                                         (Annual average, in thousands)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                               Estimate
                                              2003   -----------------------------------------------------------
                                             Actual     2004      2005      2006      2007      2008      2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farmer direct payments....................     1,997     1,957     1,957     1,938     1,918     1,899     1,880
Federal family education loans............     5,980     6,302     6,556     6,726     6,855     7,216     7,588
Federal direct student loans..............     2,073     2,163     2,275     2,382     2,507     2,635     2,768
Medicaid/State Children's Health Insurance    46,000    47,900    48,300    48,600    49,000    49,300    49,600
 Program..................................
Medicare-eligible military retiree health      1,634     1,682     1,720     1,754     1,788     1,827     1,863
 benefits.................................
Medicare:
  Hospital insurance......................    40,467    41,198    41,880    42,561    43,294    44,111    45,053
  Supplementary medical insurance.........    38,369    38,928    39,477    40,028    40,619    41,282    42,054
Railroad retirement.......................       629       614       599       585       573       562       553
Federal civil service retirement..........     2,383     2,386     2,407     2,441     2,473     2,505     2,538
Military retirement.......................     2,006     2,030     2,052     2,074     2,099     2,118     2,132
Unemployment compensation.................    10,340    10,190    10,050     9,930     9,830     9,830     9,910
Food stamps...............................    21,264    23,690    24,872    24,201    23,596    23,077    22,645
Child nutrition...........................    31,194    31,929    32,427    32,941    33,448    33,966    34,494
Foster care and adoption assistance.......       558       584       609       638       668       700       733
Supplemental security income (SSI):
  Aged....................................     1,150     1,134     1,122     1,113     1,107     1,104     1,102
  Blind/disabled..........................     5,403     5,577     5,745     5,877     5,975     6,049     6,116
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, SSI.........................     6,553     6,711     6,867     6,990     7,082     7,153     7,218
Child care and development fund \1\.......     2,500     2,400     2,400     2,300     2,300     2,200     2,200
Social security (OASDI):
  Old age and survivor insurance..........    39,254    39,588    39,969    40,382    40,899    41,524    42,256
  Disability insurance....................     7,330     7,664     7,996     8,302     8,587     8,855     9,082
Veterans compensation:
  Veterans................................     2,445     2,548     2,607     2,691     2,773     2,848     2,897
  Survivors (non-veterans)................       312       323       328       334       341       349       357
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, veterans compensation.......     2,757     2,871     2,935     3,025     3,114     3,197     3,254
Veterans pensions:
  Veterans................................       345       344       343       340       337       334       330
  Survivors (non-veterans)................       226       218       208       199       190       182       175
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, veterans pensions...........       571       562       551       539       527       516       505
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes children served through the CCDF (including TANF transfers) and through funds spent directly on
  child care in the Social Services Block Grant and TANF programs.

  It is also necessary to make assumptions about the continuation of 
expiring programs and provisions. In the estimates provided here, 
expiring excise taxes dedicated to a trust fund are extended at current 
rates. Certain income tax provisions from the 2001 and 2003 Tax Acts, 
that were not designed to be temporary in nature, are assumed to be 
permanent for purposes of calculating revenue estimates. In general, 
mandatory programs with current year spending of at least $50 million 
are also assumed to continue. All discretionary programs with enacted 
appropriations in the current year are assumed to continue. However, 
specific provisions of law that affect mandatory programs (but are not 
necessary for program operation) are allowed to expire as scheduled. For 
example, medicaid transition assistance will expire mid-way through 
2004. The baseline does not assume additional spending under this 
authority beyond that point. Table 24-5 provides a listing of mandatory 
programs and taxes assumed to continue in the baseline after their 
expiration.
  Many other important assumptions must be made in order to calculate 
the baseline estimates. These include assumptions about the timing and 
substance of regulations that will be issued over the projection period, 
the use of administrative discretion provided under current law, and 
other assumptions about the way programs operate. Table 24-5 lists many 
of these assumptions and their impact on the baseline estimates. It is 
not intended to be an exhaustive listing; the variety and complexity of 
Government programs are too great to provide a complete list. Instead, 
some of the more important assumptions are shown.

[[Page 362]]



       Table 24-5.  IMPACT OF REGULATIONS, EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS, AND OTHER ASSUMPTIONS IN THE BASELINE
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Estimate
                   Category                    -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  REGULATIONS
Foster care program:
  Administrative claims for children in         .........  .........       -82        -87        -91        -96
   unlicensed relative homes..................
  Information and guidance on implemenation of  .........  .........        -2         -5         -5         -5
   AFCARS penalties...........................
Old age and survivors insurance (OASI) and
 disabilty insurance (DI):
  Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency.........         6         18         26         27         18          5
  Reduction of Title II benefits under family         15         16         17         18         19         20
   maximum in cases of dual entitlement.......
  Trial work period...........................         5          4          3          3          2          1
  Musculoskeletal system and related criteria.       -85       -110       -135       -165       -195       -225
Medicare, HI: \1\
  Inpatient Rehabiliation Facilities..........       -20        -50        -70        -70       -180       -230
  Inpatient Psychiatric Facilities,             .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
   Prospective Payment System.................
Medicare, HI and SMI: \1\
  Consistent reimbursement for bad debt.......  .........       -10        -40        -70        -80        -90
Supplemental security income (SSI):
  Ticket to Work and Self-Sufficiency.........        -5        -12        -12         -6         -3         -7
  Title XVI cross-program recovery............       -40        -30        -15        -15        -15        -15
  Student earned income exclusion.............         3          4          4          4          4          5
  Musculoskeletal system and related criteria.       -15        -20        -25        -25        -30        -35
Interior:
  Bureau of Land Management cost recovery fees  .........        -4         -4         -4         -4         -4
 
            EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS
 
Provisions extended in the baseline (effect of
 extension):
Spending:
  Child care entitlement to States............  .........     2,717      2,717      2,717      2,717      2,717
  Child nutrition:
    Summer food service program...............       308        329        352        374        398        420
    State administrative expenses.............       149        156        162        167        175        181
  CCC market access, bioenergy and commodity    .........  .........  .........  .........     5,412     10,300
   programs...................................
  Conservation reserve program................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........        41
  Farm security and rural investment:
    Conservation security program.............  .........  .........  .........  .........       873      1,046
    Environmental quality incentives program..  .........  .........  .........  .........     1,107      1,116
    Farm and ranch lands protection program...  .........  .........  .........  .........       134        136
    Wildlife habitat incentives program.......  .........  .........  .........  .........        74         76
    Wetlands reserve program..................  .........  .........  .........  .........       294        218
  Food stamps:
    Benefit costs.............................  .........  .........  .........  .........    25,994     26,312
    State administrative expenses.............  .........  .........  .........  .........     2,553      2,626
    Employment and training...................  .........  .........  .........  .........       321        326
    Other program costs.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........        70         71
    Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico......  .........  .........  .........  .........     1,518      1,554
    Food donations on Indian reservations.....  .........  .........  .........  .........        83         85
    The emergency food assistance program       .........  .........  .........  .........       140        140
     commodities..............................
  Promoting safe and stable families..........  .........  .........  .........       305        305        305
  Temporary assistance for needy families
   (TANF) resources:
    State family assistance grants (SFAG).....     6,595     16,489     16,489     16,489     16,489     16,489
    SFAG to territories.......................        31         78         78         78         78         78
    Matching grants to territories............         6         15         15         15         15         15
    Bonus to reward high performing States....      1000   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Bonus to reward decrease in illegitimacy..       100        100        100        100        100        100
    Tribal work program.......................         8          8          8          8          8          8
    Census survey of program dynamics.........         5         10         10         10         10         10
  Trade adjustment assistance--training and     .........  .........  .........  .........       649      1,143
   income support.............................
  Trade adjustment assistance--farmers........  .........  .........  .........  .........        90         90
  Veterans compensation
    Annual cost-of-living adjustment..........  .........       242        592        967      1,519      2,185
Revenues:
  Excise taxes dedicated to trust funds:
    Airport and Airway trust fund taxes.......  .........  .........  .........  .........    11,852     12,536
    Aquatic resources trust fund taxes........  .........  .........       328        338        349        359
    Highway trust fund taxes..................  .........  .........    30,121     30,949     31,720     32,416
    Leaking Underground Storage Tank taxes....  .........        82        202        208        211        217
  Certain provisions for the 2001 tax cut and
   2003 jobs and growth tax cut:
    Revenue effect............................  .........   -11,776    -26,020    -26,321    -25,682    -41,828
    Outlay effect.............................  .........  .........     4,265      4,131      4,003      3,936

[[Page 363]]

 
Provisions not extended in the baseline
 (effect of extension):
Spending:
  Agriculture recreation fee demonstration      .........  .........       -17        -12         -7         -2
   project....................................
  Customs user fees...........................  .........      -820     -1,391     -1,448     -1,507     -1,570
  EPA pesticides maintenance fee..............  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........       -15
  Medicare, SMI:
    Medicare low income premium assistance \2\  .........       136        141        147        152        158
  Medicaid:
    Transition benefits \3\...................       175        446        488        524        554        580
  TANF:
    Supplemental grants.......................       128        319        319        319        319        319
    Welfare research..........................         7         15         15         15         15         15
  Veterans programs:
    Income verification match.................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........        -6
    Authorize purchase of headstones..........  .........  .........  .........         2          2          2
 
      OTHER IMPORTANT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS
 
Child support enforcement (CSE):
  Alternative penalties for Family Support Act      -166       -203       -188        175   .........  .........
   systems and Statewide Disbursement Unit
   requirements...............................
  Effect of enhanced rate of paternity testing         8          8          8          8          8          8
Food stamps:
  Tax offset, recoupment, and general claims        -168       -177       -175       -175       -175       -177
   collection.................................
  Quality control liabilities.................  .........  .........       -18        -18        -16        -12
  Allocation of administrative costs between        -197       -197       -197       -197       -197       -197
   public assistance programs.................
Medicare: \4\
  Medicare Advantage..........................    38,460     49,435     62,558     82,744     92,250    102,607
  Inpatient Hospital..........................   118,552    125,786    124,173    122,175    125,593    130,527
  Physicians..................................    51,125     54,095     51,003     47,606     46,780     45,896
Medicaid:
  Financial management recoveries.............      -466       -482       -530       -580       -634       -691
  Vaccines for Children, total program costs..     1,208      1,208      1,201        984      1,009      1,028
  Allocation of administrative costs between         432        471        509        549        593        640
   public assistance programs.................
  Remaining upper payment limit-related costs.     2,800      2,400      2,000      1,800      1,600      1,400
  Institutional long term care................    33,805     33,892     36,269     38,657     41,100     43,504
  Home and community based institutional          18,457     19,002     22,015     25,539     29,705     34,515
   alternatives...............................
  Pharmaceuticals (FFS, net of rebates).......    18,304     20,800     13,951     12,209     13,201     14,349
  Managed care (including Medicaid MCOs, PHPs,    29,809     31,853     36,188     40,589     45,032     49,368
   PCCM)......................................
State Children's Health Insurance Program          5,232      5,299      5,292      5,494      5,566      5,601
 (Title XXI)..................................
Approved Demonstrations: \5\
  Medicare, HI:
    Mercy Medical SNF
      Baseline estimate.......................         5          1   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         5          1   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Premier--Hospital Quality Incentive
      Baseline estimate.......................     2,844      3,053      3,267         11   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     2,844      3,053      3,267         11   .........  .........
  Medicare, SMI:
    Municipal Health..........................        15         17         19          5   .........  .........
      Baseline estimate.......................        30         33         37         10   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate
    Diabetes (Telemedicine)
      Baseline estimate.......................         7          7          8          8   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         7          7          8          8   .........  .........
    United Mine Workers Program--Prescription
     Drug Benefits
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       109        120   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Smoking Cessation
      Baseline estimate.......................  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         *   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Home Health Third Party Liability
      Baseline estimate.......................       153        110         85         62         59   .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       153        110         85         62         59   .........
    BIPA Disease Management
      Baseline estimate.......................       101        271        288        144   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       101        270        286        142   .........  .........
    Case Management/Lovelace
      Baseline estimate.......................        12          2   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        10          2   .........  .........  .........  .........

[[Page 364]]

 
    Coordinated Care
      Baseline estimate.......................       177        188         95   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       154        163         82   .........  .........  .........
  Medicare: HI and SMI:
    Evercare
      Baseline estimate.......................       206         69   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       206         69   .........  .........  .........  .........
    New York Graduate Medical Education
      Baseline estimate.......................        53         53         53         53   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        45         37         26         13   .........  .........
    Medicare Lifestyle Modification Program
      Baseline estimate.......................         1          1          1   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         1          1          1   .........  .........  .........
    Medicare+Choice Phase I
      Baseline estimate.......................       377        103   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       386        106   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Medicare+Choice Phase II
      Baseline estimate.......................       859        945        260   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       916      1,008        277   .........  .........  .........
    United Mine Workers Program--Health
     Benefits
      Baseline estimate.......................       366        442   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       343        411   .........  .........  .........  .........
    UTAH GME
      Baseline estimate.......................         5          5          6          6   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................         5          5          6          6   .........  .........
    SHMO-ESRD
      Baseline estimate.......................        16         16          4   .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        18         18          5   .........  .........  .........
    NJHA Hospital Performance Based Incentive
      Baseline estimate.......................       260        372        400        107   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       255        365        392        105   .........  .........
    S/HMOs--Medicare
      Baseline estimate.......................       893        295   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................     1,050        347   .........  .........  .........  .........
    S/HMO II--Medicare
      Baseline estimate.......................       533        172   .........  .........  .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................       550        182   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Virginia Cardiac Surgery Initiative
      Baseline estimate.......................        28        115        118         90   .........  .........
      Demonstration estimate..................        28        114        116         89   .........  .........
  Medicaid: \5\
    Alabama Family Planning...................       239        202   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arizona AHCCCS............................     2,515      2,733      3,029   .........  .........  .........
    Arkansas (ARKids B).......................        49         44   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Arkansas Family Planning Services.........       169        207         35   .........  .........  .........
    Arkansas Cash & Counseling................         8          8          8          7   .........  .........
    Arkansas TEFRA............................        38         46         57         69   .........  .........
    California Family Planning................       159         27   .........  .........  .........  .........
    California--LA County \6\.................       123         65   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Colorado Consumer Directed Attendent               4          5          5          6          1   .........
     Support..................................
    Delaware--Diamond State Health Plan.......       409        456        504        129   .........  .........
    District of Columbia HIV..................         2         10         12         15   .........  .........
    District of Columbia Childless Adults 50-          5          5          5          3   .........  .........
     64.......................................
    Florida Family Planning...................        10          8          8          1   .........  .........
    Florida Cash & Counseling.................        49         53         57         62         26   .........
    Hawaii Health QUEST.......................       284        143   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Kentucky Health Care Partnership Program..       324        335         28   .........  .........  .........
    Maine HIV.................................         7          8          9          7   .........  .........
    Maryland (Health Choice)..................     1,282        975   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Massachusetts MassHealth..................     2,428      1,866   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Minnesota (Prepaid Med. Assist. Project          117        104   .........  .........  .........  .........
     Plus)....................................
    Mississippi Family Planning...............       105        115        125        137        109   .........
    Missouri Managed Care Plus................       204        205        204         86   .........  .........
    New Jersey Cash & Counseling..............         4          2   .........  .........  .........  .........
    New Mexico--Family Planning Expansion.....         8          9         11   .........  .........  .........
    New York (Partnership Plan)...............     9,421      9,753      5,252   .........  .........  .........
    Oklahoma Sooner Care......................       168        843        906        230   .........  .........

[[Page 365]]

 
    Oregon Family Planning....................        58         65         76          6   .........  .........
    Oregon Independent Choices................         2          2          3          *   .........  .........
    Rhode Island Rite Care (Medicaid).........       126        103   .........  .........  .........  .........
    South Carolina Family Planning............        19          7   .........  .........  .........  .........
    TennCare II...............................     3,244      3,488      3,865      3,124   .........  .........
    Utah (Primary Care Network)...............        81         87         97         79   .........  .........
    Vermont Health Access Plan................       344        208        214         54   .........  .........
    Virginia--Family Planning.................       159        165        171        176   .........  .........
    Washington (Take Charge/Family Planning)..       179        200        160   .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin Badger Care (Medicaid)..........        19   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin Family Planning.................        23         28         34         40         10   .........
    Pharmacy plus (demonstration estimate):
      Wisconsin Pharmacy Plus.................       154        183        218        260   .........  .........
      Florida Pharmacy Plus...................        87         95        105         93   .........  .........
      Illinois Pharmacy Plus..................       232        298        357        277   .........  .........
      South Carolina Pharmacy Plus............       129        153        179        208         52   .........
  State Children's Health Insurance Program
   (Title XXI) (demonstration estimates): \5\
    Maryland Health Choice \7\................       126         90   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Minnesota Care............................        64         47   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Missouri MC+ \7\..........................        82         91        103        117   .........  .........
    New Jersey FamilyCare.....................        19   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    New Mexico SCHIP \7\......................        20         23   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Rhode Island (SCHIP RiteCare).............        10         10   .........  .........  .........  .........
    Wisconsin (BadgerCare)....................        33   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Health Insurance Flexibility and
   Accountability (HIFA) (demonstration
   estimate):
    Arizona HIFA amendment to AHCCCS (SCHIP           39         41         43   .........  .........  .........
     funds)...................................
    California HIFA (SCHIP funds).............       466        487        337   .........  .........  .........
    Colorado HIFA Adult Prenatal Coverage             13         14   .........  .........  .........  .........
     (SCHIP funds)............................
    Illinois HIFA (KidCare Parent Coverage)
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....        33         72        106        150   .........  .........
      Baseline estimate (Medicaid funds)......        71         85        113        148   .........  .........
    Maine HIFA (Maine Care for Childless
     Adults--Medicaid funds)
    Baseline estimate.........................        61         57         57         57   .........  .........
    New Mexico HIFA (SCHIP funds).............        13         15         19         22   .........  .........
    Oregon HIFA (Oregon Health Plan 2)
      Demonstration estimate (SCHIP funds)....        30         33         36          6   .........  .........
      Baseline estimate (Medicaid funds)......     1,457      1,558      1,718      1,893        159   .........
Joint Medicare and Medicaid:
  Minnesota-Dual Eligibles
    Demonstration estimate....................        88   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
    Baseline estimate.........................        92   .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
  Wisconsin-Dual Eligibles
    Demonstration estimate....................        97        127        167   .........  .........  .........
    Baseline estimate.........................        97        127        167   .........  .........  .........
  Massachusetts--Dual Eligibles
    Demonstration estimate....................        11         21         29         35   .........  .........
    Baseline estimate.........................        15         28         38         50   .........  .........
OASI, DI, SSI:
  Performance of continuing disability reviews       -90       -570     -1,150     -1,700     -2,385     -2,990
   (baseline levels) (OASI, DI, SSI)..........
  Collection of overpayments:
    OASI......................................      -640       -650       -650       -650       -650       -650
    DI........................................      -460       -498       -498       -498       -498       -498
    SSI (federal).............................      -849       -903       -903       -903       -903       -903
  Debts written off as uncollectable (no
   effect on outlays):
    OASI......................................       108        110        110        110        110        110
    DI........................................       363        393        393        393        393        393
    SSI (federal).............................       511        544        544        544        544        544
  OASDI:
    Payments to states for vocational                 93        100        109        116        124        132
     rehabilitation...........................
    Research and demonstration projects.......        14         51         74         37   .........  .........
  SSI:
    Payments from states for state                -4,229     -4,314     -4,485     -4,661     -4,762     -4,925
     supplemental benefits....................
    Payments for state supplemental benefits..     4,195      4,670      4,485      4,270      4,755      4,910
    Fees for administration of State
     supplement:
      Treasury share..........................      -153       -156       -159       -161       -163       -164
      SSA share...............................      -120       -121       -128       -135       -142       -151
    Research and demonstration projects.......        51         42         28         28         28         29

[[Page 366]]

 
    Payments to states for vocational                 89         92         98        106        111        117
     rehabilitation...........................
    Performance of non-disability                   -980     -1,800     -1,985     -2,145     -2,290     -2,430
     redeterminations (excludes related
     overpayment collections reported above)..
Ticket to work grant programs:
  Infrastructure grant program................        15         22         26         27         30         31
  Demonstration to maintain independence and           1          6          7          8         10         10
   employment.................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* = $500,000 or less.
 
NA = Not available.
 
\1\ Medicare regulations reflect gross outlays.
 
\2\ Current law extends program through September 30, 2004.
 
\3\ Current law extends program to March 31, 2004.
 
\4\ Not shown on table are anticipated collections from various state liabilities under current law.
 
\5\ Baseline estimates reflect costs absent the demonstration; demonstration estimate reflects costs of the
  demonstration.
 
\6\ Budget modified from original agreement for phase-out of waiver funding.
 
\7\ Estimates reflect costs for SCHIP children under the State's Medicaid 1115.

        Current Services Receipts, Outlays, and Budget Authority

  Receipts.--Table 24-6 shows baseline receipts by major source. Total 
receipts are projected to increase by $245 billion from 2004 to 2005 and 
by $599 billion from 2005 to 2009, largely due to assumed increases in 
incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation.
  Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $116 billion from 
2004 to 2005 under current law. This growth of 15.2 percent is primarily 
the effect of increased collections resulting from rising personal 
incomes and the timing and magnitude of tax changes provided under the 
2001 and 2003 tax cuts. Individual income taxes are projected to grow at 
an annual rate of 8.5 percent between 2005 and 2009.

                                    Table 24-6.  BASELINE RECEIPTS BY SOURCE
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Estimate
                                        2003   -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes............      793.7      765.8      882.0      969.4    1,051.5    1,139.6    1,220.1
Corporation income taxes...........      131.8      162.1      222.1      246.8      252.2      258.1      264.9
Social insurance and retirement          713.0      732.4      794.0      834.0      878.6      918.6      960.0
 receipts..........................
  On-budget........................      189.1      198.4      218.9      230.9      242.3      251.0      261.1
  Off-budget.......................      523.8      534.0      575.1      603.1      636.3      667.6      698.9
Excise taxes.......................       67.5       70.2       73.2       74.8       76.9       79.1       81.3
Other..............................       76.4       80.8       80.3       89.9       94.5      101.7      109.3
Adjustment for revenue uncertainty.  .........      -20.0      -15.0  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total..............................    1,782.3    1,791.2    2,036.6    2,214.9    2,353.7    2,497.1    2,635.6
  On-budget........................    1,258.5    1,257.2    1,461.5    1,611.7    1,717.4    1,829.5    1,936.7
  Off-budget.......................      523.8      534.0      575.1      603.1      636.3      667.6      698.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  Corporation income taxes under current law are estimated to grow by 
$60 billion or 37.1 percent between 2004 and 2005, in large part due to 
increasing corporate profits and the timing and magnitude of tax changes 
provided in the 2002 economic stimulus bill and the 2001 and 2003 tax 
cuts. Corporation income taxes are projected to increase at an annual 
rate of 4.5 percent from 2005 to 2009, reflecting higher corporate 
profits.
  Social insurance and retirement receipts are estimated to increase by 
$62 billion between 2004 and 2005, and by an additional $166 billion 
between 2005 and 2009. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total 
wages and salaries paid, and scheduled increases in the social security 
taxable earnings base from $87,900 in 2004 to $106,200 in 2009.
  Excise taxes are estimated to increase by $11 billion from 2004 to 
2009, in large part due to increased economic activity. Other baseline 
receipts (estate and gift taxes, customs duties, and miscellaneous 
receipts) are projected to increase by $28 billion from 2004 to 2009.
  The current services revenue estimates reflect a downward adjustment 
for revenue uncertainty of $20 billion in 2004 and $15 billion in 2005. 
These amounts reflect an additional adjustment to receipts beyond what 
the economic and tax models forecast that has been made in the interest 
of cautious and prudent forecasting.
  Outlays.--Current services outlays are estimated to grow from $2,319 
billion in 2004 to $2,397 billion in 2005, a 3.4 percent increase. 
Between 2004 and 2009,

[[Page 367]]

they are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.2 percent. 
Outlays for discretionary programs remain almost level from 2004 to 
2005, largely reflecting increases in resources to keep pace with 
inflation offset by a reduction from lower spending for the war. 
Discretionary outlays actually decline from 2005 to 2006, largely from 
continued fall off in war spending. Reflecting increases in resources to 
keep pace with inflation, outlays rise each year thereafter, reaching 
$933 billion in 2009. Entitlement and other mandatory programs are 
estimated to grow from $1,254 billion in 2004 to $1,309 billion in 2005, 
and to $1,618 billion in 2009, due in large part to changes in the 
number of beneficiaries and to automatic cost-of-living adjustments and 
other adjustments for inflation. Social security outlays grow from $492 
billion in 2004 to $608 billion in 2009, an average annual rate of 4.3 
percent. Medicare and medicaid are projected to grow at annual average 
rates of 9.4 and 6.9 percent, respectively, outpacing inflation. 
Offsetting growth in other areas, unemployment compensation declines 
from $46 billion in 2004 to $40 billion in 2005, reflecting lower 
unemployment rates as economic growth increases. Other areas of growth 
are federal employee retirement and other income security programs, 
including food assistance, the earned income and child tax credits, and 
the supplemental security income program.
  Net interest payments to the public total $156 billion in 2004 and 
$178 billion in 2005. They rise each year reaching $296 billion in 2009. 
This pattern reflects increased borrowing requirements as well as 
changes in the mix of debt issuance and interest rates over the period.
  Tables 24-8 and 24-9 show current services outlays by function and by 
agency, respectively. A more detailed presentation of outlays (by 
function, subfunction, category, and program) appears on the CD-ROM that 
accompanies this volume.
  Budget authority.--Tables 24-10 and 24-11 show current services 
estimates of budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. A 
more detailed presentation of budget authority with program level 
estimates appears on the CD-ROM that accompanies this volume.

                                     

                                              Table 24-7.  CHANGE IN BASELINE OUTLAY ESTIMATES BY CATEGORY
                                                              (Dollar amounts In billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Change 2004 to 2005   Change 2004 to 2009
                                                                                                            --------------------------------------------
                                                                               2004       2005       2009                                       Average
                                                                                                               Amount    Percent     Amount     Annual
                                                                                                                                                 Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
  Discretionary:
    Defense...............................................................      451.6      438.8      442.8      -12.8      -2.8%       -8.8       -0.4%
    Nondefense............................................................      456.6      470.8      489.7       14.2       3.1%       33.1        1.4%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, discretionary.................................................      908.2      909.6      932.5        1.4       0.2%       24.3        0.5%
  Mandatory:
    Medicaid..............................................................      177.1      183.2      246.9        6.1       3.4%       69.8        6.9%
    Medicare..............................................................      265.9      289.6      417.7       23.7       8.9%      151.7        9.4%
    Federal employee retirement and disability............................       89.1       92.7      107.5        3.6       4.0%       18.4        3.8%
    Unemployment compensation.............................................       45.6       40.5       45.4       -5.1     -11.2%       -0.2       -0.1%
    Other income security programs........................................      151.4      161.5      171.2       10.1       6.7%       19.8        2.5%
    Social Security.......................................................      492.0      510.5      608.1       18.5       3.8%      116.2        4.3%
    Other mandatory programs..............................................       92.4       93.3       95.8        0.9       0.9%        3.4        0.7%
    Undistributed offsetting receipts.....................................      -59.3      -62.2      -75.0       -2.8       4.8%      -15.6        4.8%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Subtotal, mandatory.....................................................    1,254.2    1,309.1    1,617.6       54.9       4.4%      363.4        5.2%
  Net interest............................................................      156.3      178.0      296.4       21.7      13.9%      140.1       13.7%
                                                                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlays.............................................................    2,318.7    2,396.7    2,846.6       78.0       3.4%      527.8        4.2%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 368]]


                                                    Table 24-8.  CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
                                                                (in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                           Function                                2003    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual         2004         2005         2006         2007         2008         2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
  Department of Defense--Military............................       387.3        434.8        420.6        399.1        402.6        414.6        424.1
  Other......................................................        17.6         18.9         19.7         19.7         19.7         19.9         20.3
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, National defense....................................       404.9        453.7        440.3        418.8        422.3        434.5        444.3
International affairs........................................        21.2         34.2         36.6         29.3         26.8         27.0         27.5
General science, space, and technology.......................        20.9         22.3         23.8         23.7         24.5         25.0         25.4
Energy.......................................................        -0.8          1.0          1.2          1.6          1.6          1.7          1.8
Natural resources and environment............................        29.7         31.7         32.5         33.6         35.3         36.2         37.0
Agriculture..................................................        22.6         20.1         22.4         21.3         21.2         21.0         21.2
Commerce and housing credit..................................        -1.6          7.7          3.8         -1.2         -0.4         -0.7          0.1
  On-Budget..................................................        (3.6)       (12.7)        (4.1)        (2.8)        (3.6)        (4.0)        (4.3)
  Off-Budget.................................................       (-5.2)       (-5.0)       (-0.2)       (-4.0)       (-3.9)       (-4.7)       (-4.3)
Transportation...............................................        67.1         68.2         69.5         70.1         71.1         72.5         74.5
Community and regional development...........................        18.8         18.8         17.3         16.2         16.7         15.8         15.7
Education, training, employment, and social services.........        82.6         87.2         89.5         89.4         90.2         91.4         93.2
Health.......................................................       219.6        243.3        254.2        266.0        283.6        304.6        326.6
Medicare.....................................................       249.4        270.5        295.2        342.1        378.0        399.6        424.1
Income security..............................................       334.4        339.5        348.8        353.6        357.4        366.5        373.8
Social security..............................................       474.7        496.2        514.8        533.5        556.6        581.3        613.0
  On-Budget..................................................       (13.3)       (14.3)       (15.1)       (16.4)       (17.9)       (20.5)       (21.5)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (461.4)      (481.9)      (499.7)      (517.1)      (538.6)      (560.8)      (591.5)
Veterans benefits and services...............................        57.0         60.5         68.3         69.1         69.4         75.8         79.6
Administration of justice....................................        35.4         41.6         42.7         43.5         43.2         44.5         46.8
General government...........................................        23.0         25.4         19.9         20.1         20.9         21.8         22.3
Net interest.................................................       153.1        156.3        178.0        213.2        245.5        273.1        296.4
  On-Budget..................................................      (236.6)      (242.6)      (269.9)      (313.3)      (355.6)      (395.5)      (433.1)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (-83.5)      (-86.3)      (-91.9)     (-100.1)     (-110.2)     (-122.4)     (-136.6)
Allowances...................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........        -1.2         -1.2   ...........  ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
  Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............       -39.8        -44.1        -46.1        -48.3        -50.9        -53.6        -56.5
  Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)...........        -9.6        -10.7        -11.2        -11.8        -12.5        -13.5        -14.4
  Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf.........        -5.0         -4.6         -4.8         -5.6         -5.6         -5.7         -5.7
  Sale of major assets.......................................  ...........  ...........  ...........        -0.3   ...........  ...........  ...........
  Other undistributed offsetting receipts....................  ...........  ...........        -0.1         -9.0        -11.2         -4.2           -*
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts...................       -54.4        -59.3        -62.2        -75.0        -80.2        -77.0        -76.6
    On-Budget................................................      (-44.8)      (-48.7)      (-51.0)      (-63.2)      (-67.7)      (-63.5)      (-62.2)
    Off-Budget...............................................       (-9.6)      (-10.7)      (-11.2)      (-11.8)      (-12.5)      (-13.5)      (-14.4)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,157.6      2,318.7      2,396.7      2,467.7      2,582.5      2,714.7      2,846.6
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  On-Budget..................................................    (1,794.6)    (1,938.7)    (2,000.4)    (2,066.5)    (2,170.5)    (2,294.4)    (2,410.4)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (363.0)      (380.0)      (396.3)      (401.2)      (412.0)      (420.2)      (436.2)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.


[[Page 369]]


                                                     Table 24-9.  CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY
                                                                (in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                            Agency                                 2003    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual         2004         2005         2006         2007         2008         2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch...........................................         3.4          4.3          4.2          4.1          4.3          4.4          4.5
Judicial Branch..............................................         5.1          5.3          5.6          5.7          5.9          6.1          6.3
Agriculture..................................................        72.4         77.7         82.8         82.4         83.4         84.6         86.3
Commerce.....................................................         5.7          6.2          6.2          6.3          6.4          6.6          6.8
Defense--Military............................................       388.9        435.7        420.8        399.1        402.6        414.6        424.1
Education....................................................        57.4         62.8         64.4         64.2         64.7         65.4         66.6
Energy.......................................................        19.4         20.6         21.8         21.9         21.9         22.2         22.6
Health and Human Services....................................       505.3        547.7        581.9        639.8        692.8        734.4        780.5
Homeland Security............................................        32.0         30.7         30.8         30.8         31.6         31.7         31.9
Housing and Urban Development................................        37.5         46.2         39.6         39.4         40.4         36.9         33.9
Interior.....................................................         9.2         10.0          9.8         10.6         11.3         11.5         11.7
Justice......................................................        21.5         23.5         23.4         23.5         22.6         23.3         24.9
Labor........................................................        69.6         59.9         54.9         55.0         56.0         58.2         61.0
State........................................................         9.3         11.3         10.7         10.3         10.6         10.7         11.0
Transportation...............................................        50.8         58.0         59.2         59.8         60.4         61.6         63.2
Treasury.....................................................       367.0        369.0        399.3        448.4        495.5        541.0        585.6
Veterans Affairs.............................................        56.9         60.4         68.2         68.9         69.2         75.6         79.4
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works..............................         4.8          4.3          4.7          4.9          5.0          5.1          5.3
Other Defense Civil Programs.................................        39.9         40.3         40.5         40.8         41.2         41.6         41.8
Environmental Protection Agency..............................         8.1          8.1          8.4          8.4          8.8          9.0          9.0
Executive Office of the President............................         0.4          6.6          9.9          4.2          1.1          0.6          0.4
General Services Administration..............................         0.6          0.8          0.7          0.3          0.4          0.4          0.4
International Assistance Programs............................        13.5         17.4         15.8         15.0         15.4         16.0         16.3
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................        14.6         14.6         15.9         15.6         16.3         16.6         16.9
National Science Foundation..................................         4.7          5.3          5.5          5.6          5.7          5.9          6.0
Office of Personnel Management...............................        54.1         57.6         60.6         63.7         65.8         69.2         72.5
Small Business Administration................................         1.6          4.0          0.7          0.8          0.8          0.8          0.9
Social Security Administration...............................       507.7        530.5        553.4        570.7        592.3        622.2        655.3
  On-Budget..................................................       (46.3)       (48.6)       (53.7)       (53.6)       (53.6)       (61.4)       (63.8)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (461.4)      (481.9)      (499.7)      (517.1)      (538.6)      (560.8)      (591.5)
Other Independent Agencies...................................         6.9         11.4         18.6         13.6         14.6         14.6         15.3
  On-Budget..................................................       (12.2)       (16.4)       (18.8)       (17.6)       (18.6)       (19.2)       (19.6)
  Off-Budget.................................................       (-5.2)       (-5.0)       (-0.2)       (-4.0)       (-3.9)       (-4.7)       (-4.3)
Allowances...................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........        -1.2         -1.2   ...........  ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................      -210.4       -211.4       -221.5       -245.0       -263.3       -275.8       -293.7
  On-Budget..................................................     (-117.3)     (-114.5)     (-118.3)     (-133.2)     (-140.6)     (-140.0)     (-142.7)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (-93.1)      (-96.9)     (-103.1)     (-111.9)     (-122.7)     (-135.9)     (-151.0)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,157.6      2,318.7      2,396.7      2,467.7      2,582.5      2,714.7      2,846.6
  On-Budget..................................................    (1,794.6)    (1,938.7)    (2,000.4)    (2,066.5)    (2,170.5)    (2,294.4)    (2,410.4)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (363.0)      (380.0)      (396.3)      (401.2)      (412.0)      (420.2)      (436.2)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 370]]


                                               Table 24-10.  CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION
                                                                (in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                           Function                                2003    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual         2004         2005         2006         2007         2008         2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
  Department of Defense--Military............................       437.9        441.7        390.0        399.4        409.5        420.4        431.9
  Other......................................................        18.3         18.8         19.0         19.3         19.6         20.0         20.4
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, National defense....................................       456.2        460.5        409.0        418.7        429.1        440.4        452.4
International affairs........................................        31.7         41.3         25.2         26.9         27.7         28.5         29.3
General science, space, and technology.......................        23.1         23.4         23.7         24.2         24.6         25.2         25.7
Energy.......................................................         0.5          1.2          1.2          1.9          1.7          1.9          2.2
Natural resources and environment............................        31.8         32.2         33.5         33.9         35.3         36.2         37.7
Agriculture..................................................        24.7         19.5         22.7         21.8         21.7         21.4         21.4
Commerce and housing credit..................................        14.9         14.0          9.0          8.6         10.8         11.0         10.8
  On-Budget..................................................        (9.5)       (11.8)        (9.3)        (8.1)        (9.7)       (10.1)       (10.3)
  Off-Budget.................................................        (5.4)        (2.2)       (-0.3)        (0.4)        (1.0)        (1.0)        (0.4)
Transportation...............................................        68.7         69.4         70.1         70.9         71.6         72.2         72.9
Community and regional development...........................        16.7         16.3         15.4         15.7         16.0         16.3         16.6
Education, training, employment, and social services.........        87.6         87.9         90.8         91.4         92.0         93.4         95.2
Health.......................................................       231.7        251.1        250.6        265.7        284.2        305.3        329.7
Medicare.....................................................       249.9        271.0        295.1        342.5        377.7        399.6        424.5
Income security..............................................       329.5        336.4        342.2        349.1        353.7        366.4        380.8
Social security..............................................       476.6        497.8        516.2        535.1        558.6        583.5        615.9
  On-Budget..................................................       (13.3)       (14.3)       (15.1)       (16.4)       (17.9)       (20.5)       (21.5)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (463.3)      (483.5)      (501.1)      (518.7)      (540.7)      (563.0)      (594.4)
Veterans benefits and services...............................        59.1         60.4         66.0         69.6         72.9         76.5         80.4
Administration of justice....................................        39.7         42.7         42.0         42.2         43.6         44.9         47.2
General government...........................................        25.0         23.9         20.4         21.0         21.6         22.3         23.0
Net interest.................................................       153.2        156.2        178.0        213.2        245.5        273.1        296.4
  On-Budget..................................................      (236.7)      (242.5)      (269.9)      (313.3)      (355.6)      (395.5)      (433.1)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (-83.5)      (-86.3)      (-91.9)     (-100.1)     (-110.2)     (-122.4)     (-136.6)
Allowances...................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........        -1.2         -1.2   ...........  ...........
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
  Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)............       -39.8        -44.1        -46.1        -48.3        -50.9        -53.6        -56.5
  Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget)...........        -9.6        -10.7        -11.2        -11.8        -12.5        -13.5        -14.4
  Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf.........        -5.0         -4.6         -4.8         -5.6         -5.6         -5.7         -5.7
  Sale of major assets.......................................  ...........  ...........  ...........        -0.3   ...........  ...........  ...........
  Other undistributed offsetting receipts....................  ...........  ...........        -0.1         -9.0        -11.2         -4.2           -*
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts...................       -54.4        -59.3        -62.2        -75.0        -80.2        -77.0        -76.6
    On-Budget................................................      (-44.8)      (-48.7)      (-51.0)      (-63.2)      (-67.7)      (-63.5)      (-62.2)
    Off-Budget...............................................       (-9.6)      (-10.7)      (-11.2)      (-11.8)      (-12.5)      (-13.5)      (-14.4)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,266.2      2,346.1      2,349.0      2,476.2      2,606.8      2,741.2      2,885.5
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  On-Budget..................................................    (1,890.6)    (1,957.3)    (1,951.2)    (2,068.9)    (2,187.7)    (2,313.1)    (2,441.6)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (375.5)      (388.8)      (397.7)      (407.3)      (419.0)      (428.1)      (443.8)
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          MEMORANDUM
 
Discretionary budget authority:
  National defense...........................................       455.0        458.6        407.5        417.2        427.6        438.8        450.7
  International..............................................        33.5         48.6         27.3         27.8         28.3         28.9         29.6
  Domestic...................................................       361.0        367.5        376.9        385.9        396.1        406.3        418.3
                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total........................................................       849.4        874.7        811.7        830.8        851.9        874.0        898.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.


[[Page 371]]


                                                Table 24-11.  CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY
                                                                (in billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                              Estimate
                            Agency                                 2003    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual         2004         2005         2006         2007         2008         2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch...........................................         3.9          3.9          4.1          4.2          4.3          4.5          4.6
Judicial Branch..............................................         5.2          5.5          5.7          5.8          6.0          6.2          6.4
Agriculture..................................................        78.4         78.4         85.4         85.6         86.9         88.0         89.9
Commerce.....................................................         5.8          5.9          6.2          6.3          6.5          6.7          6.9
Defense--Military............................................       439.5        442.7        390.0        399.4        409.5        420.4        431.9
Education....................................................        63.3         63.3         65.7         65.8         66.0         67.0         68.3
Energy.......................................................        20.6         21.0         21.3         21.5         21.9         22.4         22.8
Health and Human Services....................................       515.9        556.4        573.9        638.6        692.4        734.7        784.3
Homeland Security............................................        30.8         28.8         31.4         30.1         30.8         31.6         34.6
Housing and Urban Development................................        34.4         34.7         35.0         35.1         35.9         36.6         37.4
Interior.....................................................        10.4         10.4         10.7         10.5         10.9         11.3         11.8
Justice......................................................        23.7         24.9         23.0         22.1         22.8         23.5         25.2
Labor........................................................        69.1         60.0         54.7         55.0         56.1         57.9         60.4
State........................................................        10.3         10.6         10.1         10.3         10.6         10.8         11.1
Transportation...............................................        54.4         59.4         59.8         60.3         60.8         61.1         61.5
Treasury.....................................................       367.9        369.6        400.7        449.7        496.7        542.0        586.7
Veterans Affairs.............................................        58.9         60.3         65.8         69.5         72.7         76.3         80.1
Corps of Engineers--Civil Works..............................         4.8          4.6          4.7          4.9          5.0          5.2          5.3
Other Defense Civil Programs.................................        40.0         40.0         40.5         40.8         41.2         41.6         41.8
Environmental Protection Agency..............................         7.9          8.4          8.4          8.6          8.8          9.0          9.3
Executive Office of the President............................         2.6         18.8          0.3          0.4          0.4          0.4          0.4
General Services Administration..............................         1.3          0.4          0.5          0.5          0.5          0.5          0.5
International Assistance Programs............................        18.5         13.4         14.8         16.3         16.7         17.1         17.5
National Aeronautics and Space Administration................        15.4         15.4         15.6         15.9         16.3         16.6         17.0
National Science Foundation..................................         5.4          5.6          5.7          5.8          5.9          6.0          6.1
Office of Personnel Management...............................        57.3         60.6         63.4         66.5         69.0         72.2         75.7
Small Business Administration................................         1.6          4.1          0.8          0.8          0.8          0.9          0.9
Social Security Administration...............................       509.4        532.0        554.1        572.3        594.7        624.4        658.2
  On-Budget..................................................       (46.2)       (48.5)       (53.0)       (53.6)       (54.0)       (61.4)       (63.8)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (463.3)      (483.5)      (501.1)      (518.7)      (540.7)      (563.0)      (594.4)
Other Independent Agencies...................................        19.8         18.4         18.2         19.8         21.3         22.1         22.3
  On-Budget..................................................       (14.5)       (16.2)       (18.4)       (19.4)       (20.3)       (21.2)       (21.9)
  Off-Budget.................................................        (5.4)        (2.2)       (-0.3)        (0.4)        (1.0)        (1.0)        (0.4)
Allowances...................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........        -1.2         -1.2   ...........  ...........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts............................      -210.4       -211.4       -221.5       -245.0       -263.3       -275.8       -293.7
  On-Budget..................................................     (-117.3)     (-114.5)     (-118.3)     (-133.2)     (-140.6)     (-140.0)     (-142.7)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (-93.1)      (-96.9)     (-103.1)     (-111.9)     (-122.7)     (-135.9)     (-151.0)
                                                              ==========================================================================================
Total........................................................     2,266.2      2,346.1      2,349.0      2,476.2      2,606.8      2,741.2      2,885.5
  On-Budget..................................................    (1,890.6)    (1,957.3)    (1,951.2)    (2,068.9)    (2,187.7)    (2,313.1)    (2,441.6)
  Off-Budget.................................................      (375.5)      (388.8)      (397.7)      (407.3)      (419.0)      (428.1)      (443.8)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 373]]

                                     

                                     

  ======================================================================

                     THE BUDGET SYSTEM AND CONCEPTS

========================================================================