[Analytical Perspectives]
[Dimensions of the Budget]
[19. Comparison of Actual to Estimated Totals]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]


  In successive budgets, the Administration publishes several estimates 
of the surplus or deficit for a particular fiscal year. Initially, the 
year appears as an outyear projection at the end of the budget horizon. 
In each subsequent budget, the year advances in the estimating horizon 
until it becomes the ``budget year.'' One year later, the year becomes 
the ``current year'' then in progress, and the following year, it 
becomes the just-completed ``actual year.''
  The budget is legally required to compare budget year estimates of 
receipts and outlays with the subsequent actual receipts and outlays for 
that year.\1\ Part I of this chapter meets that requirement by comparing 
the actual results for 2003 with the current services estimates shown in 
the 2003 Budget published in February 2002.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ These requirements, for receipts and ``uncontrollable outlays,'' 
are in 31 USC 1105(a)(18) through (20).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Part II of the chapter presents a broader comparison of estimates and 
actual outcomes. This part first discusses the historical record of 
budget year estimates versus actual results over the last two decades. 
Second, it broadens the focus to estimates made for each year of the 
budget horizon, extending four years beyond the budget year. This 
broader focus shows that the growth in differences between estimates and 
the eventual actual results grows as the estimates extend further into 
the future.

       PART I:  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL TO ESTIMATED TOTALS FOR 2003

  This part of the chapter compares the actual receipts, outlays, and 
deficit for 2003 with the current services estimates \2\ shown in the 
2003 Budget published in February 2002. This part also presents a more 
detailed comparison for mandatory and related programs, and reconciles 
the actual receipts, outlays, and deficit totals shown here with the 
figures for 2003 previously published by the Department of the Treasury.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \2\ The current services concept is discussed in Chapter 24, ``Current 
Services Estimates.'' For mandatory programs and receipts the February 
2002 current services estimate is based on laws then in place. For 
discretionary programs the current services estimate is based on the 
current year estimates adjusted for inflation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Receipts

  Receipts in 2003 were $1,782 billion, which is $339 billion less than 
the current services estimate of $2,121 billion in the 2003 Budget. As 
shown in Table 19-1, this shortfall was the net effect of legislative 
and administrative changes; economic conditions that differed from what 
had been expected; and technical factors that resulted in different 
collection patterns and effective tax rates than had been assumed.

                                     

           Table 19-1.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL 2003 RECEIPTS WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES
                                            (in billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         Enacted
                                           February   legislation/    Different  Technical     Net
                                             2002    administrative   economic    factors     change     Actual
                                           estimate      actions     conditions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes.................     1,009           -33           -51       -131       -215        794
Corporation income taxes................       208           -40             7        -44        -76        132
Social insurance and retirement receipts       750            -2           -13        -23        -37        713
Excise taxes............................        69   ..............          *         -2         -2         68
Estate and gift taxes...................        24   ..............         -*         -2         -2         22
Customs duties..........................        21            -1             *         -*         -1         20
Miscellaneous receipts..................        40   ..............         -6          *         -6         35
                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total.................................     2,121           -76           -62       -201       -339      1,782
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.

  Policy differences. The Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act, which 
was signed by President Bush on March 9, 2002, reduced 2003 receipts by 
$36 billion. Enactment of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation 
Act in May 2003 reduced 2003 receipts by an additional $36 billion (see 
Chapter 16, ``Federal Receipts'' for a description of this Act). Other 
legislative and administrative changes reduced 2003 receipts by an 
additional $4 billion.

[[Page 330]]

  Economic differences. Differences between the economic assumptions 
upon which the current services estimates were based and actual economic 
performance accounted for a reduction in 2003 receipts of $62 billion. 
Lower-than-anticipated wages and salaries and other sources of personal 
income were in large part responsible for the reductions in individual 
income taxes and social insurance and retirement receipts of $51 billion 
and $13 billion, respectively. Lower-than-expected interest rates, which 
affect deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve, were in large part 
responsible for the $6 billion reduction in miscellaneous receipts below 
the February 2002 estimate. These reductions were only partially offset 
by a $7 billion increase in corporation income taxes, attributable to 
higher-than-expected corporate profits.
  Technical reestimates. Technical factors reduced 2003 receipts a net 
$201 billion below the February 2002 current services estimate. This net 
reduction was primarily attributable to lower-than-anticipated 
collections of individual and corporation income taxes of $131 billion 
and $44 billion, respectively. Lower-than-anticipated collections of 
social insurance and retirement receipts reduced 2003 receipts relative 
to the February 2002 estimate by an additional $23 billion. Lower 
effective tax rates on wages and salaries than estimated in February 
2002 were primarily responsible for the net reductions in collections of 
individual income taxes and social insurance and retirement receipts. 
Different collection patterns and effective tax rates than assumed in 
February 2002 were primarily responsible for the lower-than-anticipated 
collections of corporation income taxes.

                                 Outlays

  Outlays for 2003 were $2,158 billion, $78 billion more than the $2,080 
billion current services estimate in the 2003 Budget (February 2002).
  Table 19-2 distributes the $78 billion net increase in outlays among 
discretionary and mandatory programs and net interest. \3\ The table 
also makes rough estimates according to three reasons for the changes: 
policy; economic conditions; and technical estimating differences, a 
residual.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \3\ Discretionary programs are controlled by annual appropriations, 
while mandatory programs are generally controlled by authorizing 
legislation. Mandatory programs are mostly formula benefit or 
entitlement programs with permanent spending authority that depend on 
eligibility criteria, benefit levels, and other factors.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                     

           Table 19-2.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL 2003 OUTLAYS WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES
                                              (outlays in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Current                   Changes
                                                     Services -----------------------------------------
                                                      (Feb.                                     Total     Actual
                                                      2002)      Policy  Economic  Technical   changes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discretionary:
  Defense.........................................        351        70  ........        -16        54       405
  Nondefense......................................        409        18  ........         -6        12       421
                                                   -------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, discretionary.......................        759        88  ........        -22        66       826
Mandatory:
  Social Security.................................        472  ........        -*         -1        -1       470
  Other programs..................................        674        40         *         -6        35       708
                                                   -------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, mandatory...........................      1,145        40        -*         -7        34     1,179
Net interest......................................        175         4       -28          3       -22       153
                                                   -------------------------------------------------------------
    Total outlays.................................      2,080       132       -29        -25        78     2,158
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.

  Policy changes are the result of legislative actions that change 
spending levels, primarily through higher or lower appropriations, which 
may reflect legislative responses to changed economic conditions, or 
changes in authorizing legislation. For 2003, policy changes increased 
outlays an estimated $132 billion relative to the initial current 
services estimates.
  Policy changes increased discretionary outlays by $88 billion. Defense 
discretionary outlays increased by $70 billion and nondefense 
discretionary outlays increased by $18 billion, largely due to the 2003 
Emergency Wartime Supplemental Appropriations Act. Policy changes 
increased mandatory outlays by $40 billion above current law. Farm 
income subsidies increased by $13 billion due to the Farm Security and 
Rural Investment Act of 2002 and the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 
2003. Unemployment compensation outlays increased by another $13 billion 
due to the Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 and the 
subsequent extensions of temporary extended unemployment compensation. 
The increase also includes outlays for temporary state fiscal relief 
totaling $9 billion, $4 billion for Medicaid and $5 billion for state 
fiscal assistance grants, resulting from enactment of the Jobs and 
Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003. The remaining $5 billion 
increase includes a $2 billion reduction in offsetting receipts from 
delaying spectrum auctions. Debt service costs increased by $4 billion 
due to outlay and revenue policy changes.

[[Page 331]]

  Economic conditions that differed from those forecast in February 2002 
resulted in a net decrease in outlays of $29 billion. This decrease 
almost entirely consists of a $28 billion decrease in net interest due 
to lower-than-expected interest rates.
  Technical estimating differences and other changes resulted in a net 
decrease in outlays of $25 billion. Technical changes result from 
changes in such factors as the number of beneficiaries for entitlement 
programs, crop conditions, or other factors not associated with policy 
changes or economic conditions. Outlays for discretionary programs 
decreased an estimated $22 billion, largely due to slower-than-expected 
defense outlays. Outlays for mandatory programs decreased an estimated 
$7 billion. This reflects lower-than-anticipated outlays for Federal 
employee retirement and farm income subsidies, and downward subsidy 
reestimate of Export-Import Bank loans, partly offset by higher-than-
anticipated outlays for Medicare. Net interest outlays increased by $3 
billion largely due to higher deficits in 2002 and 2003 stemming from 
technical factors compared to the February 2002 estimates.

                             Surplus/Deficit

  The preceding two sections discussed the differences between the 
initial current services estimates and the actual amounts of Federal 
Government receipts and outlays for 2003. This section combines these 
effects to show the net impact of these differences.
  As shown in Table 19-3, the initial 2003 current services estimate was 
a surplus of $41 billion. The actual result was a deficit of $375 
billion, a swing of $416 billion. Receipts were $339 billion less than 
the initial estimate and outlays were $78 billion more. The table shows 
the distribution of the changes according to the categories in the 
preceding two sections.

          Table 19-3.  COMPARISON OF THE ACTUAL 2003 DEFICIT WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATE
                                                  (in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      Current                  Changes
                                                     Services -----------------------------------------
                                                       (Feb.                                    Total     Actual
                                                       2002)     Policy  Economic  Technical   changes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts...........................................     2,121       -76       -62       -201      -339     1,782
Outlays............................................     2,080       132       -29        -25        78     2,158
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
  Surplus/Deficit(-)...............................        41      -207       -34       -175      -416      -375
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Surplus changes are receipts minus outlays. For these changes, a minus indicates a decrease in the
  surplus.

  The net effect of policy changes for receipts and outlays reduced the 
surplus by $207 billion. Economic conditions that differed from the 
initial assumptions in February 2002 accounted for an estimated $34 
billion decrease in the surplus. Technical factors further reduced the 
surplus by an estimated $175 billion.

Comparison of the Actual and Estimated Outlays for Mandatory and Related 
                            Programs for 2003

  This section compares the original 2003 outlay estimates for mandatory 
and related programs under current law in the 2003 Budget (February 
2002) with the actual outlays. Major examples of these programs include 
Social Security and Medicare benefits for the elderly, agricultural 
price support payments to farmers, and deposit insurance for banks and 
thrift institutions. This category also includes net interest outlays 
and undistributed offsetting receipts.
  A number of factors may cause differences between the amounts 
estimated in the budget and the actual mandatory outlays. For example, 
legislation may change benefit rates or coverage; the actual number of 
beneficiaries may differ from the number estimated; or economic 
conditions (such as inflation or interest rates) may differ from what 
was assumed in making the original estimates.

[[Page 332]]



  Table 19-4.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED OUTLAYS FOR MANDATORY AND RELATED PROGRAMS UNDER CURRENT LAW
                                            (in billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                          2003
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
                                                                          Feb. 2002
                                                                          estimate       Actual        Change
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mandatory outlays:
  Human resources programs:
    Education, training, employment, and social services..............         8            11             3
    Health:
      Medicaid........................................................       159           161             2
      Other...........................................................        17            15            -2
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
      Total health....................................................       175           175            -*
    Medicare..........................................................       229           246            17
    Income security:
      Retirement and disability.......................................        93            91            -2
      Unemployment compensation.......................................        41            54            14
      Food and nutrition assistance...................................        36            37             2
      Other...........................................................       100           100            -*
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
        Total, income security........................................       270           283            13
    Social security...................................................       472           470            -1
    Veterans benefits and services:
      Income security for veterans....................................        28            29             2
      Other...........................................................         3             2            -*
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
        Total veterans benefits and services..........................        30            31             1
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
        Total mandatory human resources programs......................     1,185         1,217            33
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
  Other functions:
    Agriculture.......................................................        12            17             5
    International.....................................................        -3            -7            -4
    Deposit insurance.................................................         1            -1            -3
    Other functions...................................................         8             7            -1
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
        Total, other functions........................................        19            16            -3
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
  Undistributed offsetting receipts:
    Employer share, employee retirement...............................       -50           -49             1
    Rents and royalties on the outer continental shelf................        -3            -5            -2
    Other undistributed offsetting receipts...........................        -5      ............         5
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
        Total undistributed offsetting receipts.......................       -58           -54             3
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
      Total, mandatory................................................     1,145         1,179            34
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
Net interest:
  Interest on Treasury debt securities (gross)........................       348           318           -29
  Interest received by trust funds....................................      -161          -156             5
  Other interest......................................................       -11            -9             2
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
        Total net interest............................................       175           153           -22
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
        Total outlays for mandatory and net interest..................     1,320         1,332            11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less.

  Table 19-4 shows the differences between the actual outlays for these 
programs in 2003 and the amounts originally estimated in the 2003 
Budget, based on laws in effect at that time. Actual outlays for 
mandatory spending and net interest in 2003 were $1,332 billion, which 
was $11 billion more than the initial estimate of $1,320 billion, based 
on existing law in February 2002.
  Actual outlays for mandatory human resources programs were $1,217 
billion, $33 billion more than originally estimated. This increase was 
the net effect of legislative action, differences between actual and 
assumed economic conditions, differences between the anticipated and 
actual number of beneficiaries, and other technical differences.
  Outlays for other functions were $3 billion less than originally 
estimated. Undistributed offsetting receipts were $3 billion less than 
expected, largely due to lower spectrum auction receipts.

[[Page 333]]

  Outlays for net interest were $153 billion, or $22 billion less than 
the original estimate. This decrease was the net effect of changes in 
interest rates from those initially assumed, changes in borrowing 
requirements due to differences in surpluses, and technical factors.

  Reconciliation of Differences with Amounts Published by Treasury for 
                                  2003

  Table 19-5 provides a reconciliation of the receipts, outlays, and 
deficit totals published by the Department of the Treasury in the 
September 2003 Monthly Treasury Statement and those published in this 
budget. The Department of the Treasury made adjustments to the estimates 
for the Combined Statement of Receipts, Outlays, and Balances, which 
decreased receipts by $202 million and increased outlays by $370 
million. Additional adjustments for this budget increased receipts and 
outlays by $227 million and $731 million, respectively. The major 
changes were inclusion of the transactions of the United Mine Workers of 
America benefit funds and adjustments of the exchange stabilization fund 
principally to exclude gains and losses in the valuation of foreign 
currencies held in the fund.

                                     

                              Table 19-5.  RECONCILIATION OF FINAL AMOUNTS FOR 2003
                                            (in millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Receipts         Outlays         Deficit
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Totals published by Treasury (September MTS)....................       1,782,317       2,156,536        -374,219
  Miscellaneous Treasury adjustments............................            -202             370            -572
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
Totals published by Treasury in U.S. Government Annual Report...       1,782,115       2,156,906        -374,791
 
  United Mine Workers of America benefit funds..................             190             190  ..............
  Exchange stabilization fund...................................  ..............             484            -484
  Other.........................................................              37              57             -20
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
 
  Total adjustments, net........................................             227             731            -504
 
Totals in the budget............................................       1,782,342       2,157,637        -375,295
 
MEMORANDUM:
  Total change since year-end statement.........................              25           1,101          -1,076
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


  PART II:  HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF ACTUAL TO ESTIMATED SURPLUSES OR 
                                DEFICITS

  This part of the chapter compares estimated surpluses or deficits to 
actual outcomes over the last two decades. The first section compares 
the estimate for the budget year of each budget with the subsequent 
actual result. The second section extends the comparison to the 
estimated surpluses or deficits for each year of the budget window--that 
is, for the current year through the fourth year following the budget 
year. This part concludes with some observations on the historical 
record of estimates of the surplus or deficit versus the subsequent 
actual outcomes.

Historical Comparison of Actual to Estimated Results for the Budget Year

  Table 19-6 compares the estimated and actual surpluses or deficits 
since the deficit estimated for 1982 in the 1982 Budget. The estimated 
surpluses or deficits here for each budget include the Administration's 
policy proposals. Therefore, the original deficit estimate for 2003 
differs from that shown in table 19-3, which is on a current services 
basis. Earlier comparisons of actual and estimated surpluses or deficits 
were on a policy basis, so for consistency the figures in Table 19-6 are 
on this basis.
  On average, the estimates for the budget year underestimated actual 
deficits (or overestimated actual surpluses) by $26 billion over the 22-
year period. Policy outcomes that differed from the original proposals 
increased the deficit by an average of $24 billion. Differences between 
economic assumptions and actual economic performance increased the 
deficit an average of $12 billion. Differences due to these two factors 
were partly offset by technical revisions, which reduced the deficit an 
average of $9 billion.
  The relatively small average difference between actual and estimated 
deficits conceals a wide variation in the differences from budget to 
budget. The differences ranged from a $389 billion underestimate of the 
deficit to a $190 billion overestimate. The $389 billion underestimate, 
in the 2002 Budget, was due largely to receipt shortfalls associated 
with the 2001 recession and associated weak stock market performance. 
About a quarter of the underestimate was due to increased spending for 
recovery from the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, homeland 
security measures, and the war against terror, along with lower receipts 
due to the March 2002 economic stimulus act. The $190 billion 
overestimate of the deficit in the 1998 Budget stemmed largely from 
stronger-than-expected economic growth and a surge in individual income 
tax collections beyond that accounted for by economic factors.

[[Page 334]]

  Because the average deficit difference obscures the degree of under- 
and overestimation in the historical data, a more appropriate statistic 
to measure the magnitude of the differences is the average absolute 
difference. This statistic measures the difference without regard to 
whether it was an under- or overestimate. Since 1982, the average 
absolute difference has been $100 billion.
  Another measure of variability is the standard deviation. This 
statistic measures the dispersion of the data around the average value. 
The standard deviation of the deficit differences since 1982 is $139 
billion. Like the average absolute difference, this measure illustrates 
the high degree of variation in the difference between estimates and 
actual deficits.
  The large variability in errors in estimates of the surplus or deficit 
for the budget year underscores the inherent uncertainties in estimating 
the future path of the Federal budget. Some estimating errors are 
unavoidable, because of differences between the President's original 
budget proposals and the legislation that Congress actually enacts. 
Occasionally such differences are huge, such as additional 
appropriations for disaster recovery, homeland security, and war efforts 
in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which were 
obviously not envisioned in the President's budget submitted the 
previous February. Even aside from differences in policy outcomes, 
errors in budget estimates can arise from new economic developments, 
unexpected changes in program costs, shifts in taxpayer behavior, and 
other factors. The budget impact of changes in economic assumptions is 
discussed further in Chapter 11 of this volume, ``Economic 
Assumptions.'' 

                Table 19-6.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED SURPLUSES OR DEFICITS SINCE 1982
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Surplus          Differences due to
                                                 or    ----------------------------------
                                             deficit (-
                                                 )                                           Total      Actual
                   Budget                    estimated    Enacted    Economic  Technical  difference  surplus or
                                                for     legislation   factors   factors               deficit(-)
                                               budget
                                              year \1\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1982.......................................        -62          15        -70        -11        -66        -128
1983.......................................       -107         -12        -67        -22       -101        -208
1984.......................................       -203         -21         38          -         17        -185
1985.......................................       -195         -12        -17         12        -17        -212
1986.......................................       -180          -8        -27         -7        -41        -221
1987.......................................       -144           2        -16          8         -6        -150
1988.......................................       -111          -9        -19        -16        -44        -155
1989.......................................       -130         -22         10        -11        -23        -152
1990.......................................        -91         -21        -31        -79       -131        -221
1991.......................................        -63          21        -85       -143       -206        -269
1992.......................................       -281         -36        -21         48        -10        -290
1993.......................................       -350          -8        -13        115         95        -255
1994.......................................       -264          -8         16         52         61        -203
1995.......................................       -165         -18          1         18          1        -164
1996.......................................       -197           6         53         30         89        -107
1997.......................................       -140           1         -4        121        118         -22
1998.......................................       -121          -9         48        151        190          69
1999.......................................         10         -22         56         82        116         126
2000.......................................        117         -42         88         74        119         236
2001.......................................        184        -129         32         40        -57         127
2002.......................................        231        -103       -201        -85       -389        -158
2003.......................................        -80         -86        -34       -175       -295        -375
 
Average....................................  .........         -24        -12          9        -26   ..........
Absolute average \2\.......................  .........          28         43         59        100   ..........
Standard deviation.........................  .........          37         61         80        139   ..........
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Surplus or deficit estimate includes the effect of the budget's policy proposals.
 
\2\ Absolute average is the average without regard to sign.

    Five-Year Comparison of Actual to Estimated Surpluses or Deficits

  The substantial differences between actual surpluses or deficits and 
the budget year estimates made less than two years earlier raises 
questions about the degree of variability for estimates of years beyond 
the budget year. Table 19-7 shows the summary statistics for the 
differences for the current year (CY), budget year (BY), and the four 
succeeding years (BY+1 through BY+4). These are the years that are 
required to be estimated in the budget by the Budget Enforcement Act of 
1990.
  On average, the budget estimates since 1982 overstated the deficit in 
the current year by $13 billion, but underestimated the deficit in the 
budget year by $26 billion. The budget estimates understated the deficit 
in the years following, by amounts growing from $50 billion for BY+1 to 
$60 billion for BY+4. While these results suggest a tendency to 
underestimate deficits toward the end of the budget horizon, the 
averages are not statistically different from zero in light of the high 
variation in the data.
  The average absolute difference between estimated and actual deficits 
grows dramatically over the six years from CY through BY+4, from $48 
billion in the

[[Page 335]]

current year to $100 billion for the budget year, to $218 billion for 
BY+4. While under- and overestimates of the deficit have historically 
tended to average out, the absolute size of the under- or overestimates 
grows as the estimates extend further into the future. The standard 
deviation of the deficit differences shows the same pattern. The 
standard deviation grows from $62 billion for current year estimates to 
$139 billion for the budget year estimates and continues to increase 
steadily as the estimates extend further out, reaching $250 billion for 
BY+4.
  The estimates of variability in the difference between estimated and 
actual deficits can be used to construct a range of uncertainty around a 
given set of estimates. Statistically, if these differences are normally 
distributed, the actual deficit will be within a range of two standard 
deviations above or below the estimate about 90% of the time. Chart 19-1 
shows this range of uncertainty applied to the deficit estimates in this 
budget. This chart illustrates that unforeseen economic developments, 
policy outcomes, or other factors could give rise to large swings in the 
deficit estimates.

                                     

Table 19-7.  DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL SURPLUSES OR DEFICITS FOR FIVE-YEAR BUDGET ESTIMATES SINCE
                                                      1982
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 Estimate for budget year plus
                                                           Current   Budget  -----------------------------------
                         Measure                            year      year      One      Two     Three     Four
                                                          estimate  estimate    year    years    years    years
                                                                               (BY+1)   (BY+2)   (BY+3)   (BY+4)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average difference \1\..................................        13       -26      -50      -56      -68      -60
Average absolute difference \2\.........................        48       100      145      178      203      218
Standard deviation......................................        62       139      201      219      234      250
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ A positive figure represents an underestimate of the surplus or an overestimate of the deficit.
\2\ Average absolute difference is the average difference without regard to sign.