[Analytical Perspectives]
[Special Analyses and Presentations]
[12. Strengthening Federal Statistics]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]
[[Page 261]]
12. STRENGTHENING FEDERAL STATISTICS
Economic statistics are valuable tools that economists, policy makers,
business leaders, and individual investors use to understand changes in
our economy. The ability of our government, our citizens, and our
businesses to make appropriate decisions about work, investments, taxes,
and a host of other important issues depends critically on the
relevance, accuracy, and timeliness of Federal statistics. Data on real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the
trade deficit, for example, have a major impact on government spending,
budget projections, and the allocation of Federal funds. They also are
critical inputs to monetary, fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy.
Economic data, such as measures of price change, have as well a
significant influence on interest rates and cost-of-living adjustments
that affect every American who runs a business, saves for retirement, or
obtains a mortgage.
Recent events provide two dramatic examples of why relevant, accurate,
and timely economic data are so important. The shocking terrorist
attacks last September and the subsequent ramp-up of security across the
whole spectrum of American life raised many questions about the
immediate and longer-term impacts on the economy. An equally important
issue, which existed even before September 11, was the uncertainty over
whether the economy was in, or about to enter, a recession. During
turning points in the economy such as an economic slowdown, the accuracy
and timeliness of data are especially critical. It is during these
periods that fiscal and monetary policy can be most useful in correcting
the path of the economy, but appropriate action depends on accurate,
timely data. Thus the budget proposes essential increases to strengthen
and update these key indicators of our Nation's economic performance to
keep pace with changes in our economy's complexity, growth, and
structure.
Similarly, current, comparable data on the characteristics of the U.S.
population are essential to monitor significant societal changes. Of
great import in 2003 will be the continuing delivery of Census 2000 data
products used to allocate locally each year nearly $200 billion in
Federal funds alone. The Census Bureau continues to streamline the
complex decennial census process and to introduce key innovations, some
of which directly address concerns about the quality of data
historically provided once a decade via the census ``long-form.'' The
plan for the next decade is to completely re-engineer the 2010 Census in
order to reduce operational risks, improve accuracy, provide more
relevant data, and contain costs. This approach has three major
components:
a simplified 2010 Census and more timely data based on
eliminating the decennial long form through implementation of
the American Community Survey (ACS);
a central, continuously updated address universe and
associated geographical products employing satellite and
Global Positioning System technology for use in all decennial
census and demographic survey programs; and
a well-tested and planned 2010 Census design produced
through systematic development well before mid-decade
operational testing.
The American Community Survey is a revolutionary, structural
initiative of the statistical system that will provide community
profiles similar to those from the decennial census on a far more
current basis. For geographic areas with populations greater than
65,000, these profiles will be available every year beginning in 2004.
For smaller areas, beginning in 2005 the ACS will accumulate or average
data over several years to obtain annual estimates similar in quality
and reliability to those currently available only once each decade.
Thus, every jurisdiction ultimately will have annual information that
portrays change over time. (The official counts of the population will
continue to come from the decennial census and the intercensal estimates
program.)
Under the aegis of the congressionally-mandated Interagency Council on
Statistical Policy (ICSP), the principal statistical agencies continue
to extend their collaborative endeavors in other areas as well in order
to improve the overall performance and efficiency of the Federal
statistical system. For example, the ICSP continues to support FedStats
(www.fedstats.gov), the ``one-stop shopping'' Internet site for Federal
statistics that permits easy access via an initial point of entry to the
wide array of statistical information available to the public from more
than 100 Federal agencies. The FedStats team has updated its home page
based on recommendations from a usability work group, and enhanced its
MapStats section to provide an interactive map-based application to
access a variety of data at the State, county, congressional district,
and Federal judicial district levels as well as to offer thematic maps
with population-based concepts for States and counties.
The statistical system is also working effectively to enhance the
quality of data the agencies produce. For example, statistical agencies
have developed proposed data sharing legislation that would permit
limited sharing of confidential data among selected agencies solely for
statistical purposes. Enactment of this legislation will create a
framework for statistical agencies to compare and improve the quality of
their data.
Despite these accomplishments, rapid changes in our economy and
society, and funding levels that challenge statistical agencies to keep
pace with them, can threat
[[Page 262]]
en the relevance, accuracy, and timeliness of our Nation's key
statistics. Any growing inability of our statistical system to mirror
accurately our economy and society, including the unprecedented growth
of electronic commerce, could undermine core government activities, such
as the accurate allocation of scarce Federal funds. Fortunately, the
most serious shortcomings of our statistical infrastructure would be
substantially mitigated by four programs supported in the
Administration's budget coupled with a legislative initiative. In
particular, these activities would:
develop an integrated statistical base for analysis of the
effects of E-business across our Nation's products and
industries, including changes in the structure of investment,
pricing, and distribution practices (Bureau of Economic
Analysis and Bureau of the Census);
support the tabulation, analysis, and dissemination of
Census 2000 data in order to reap the benefits of Census 2000
investments (Bureau of the Census);
support early planning for the 2010 Census predicated on a
fundamental re-engineering of the census process (Bureau of
the Census);
continue implementation of the American Community Survey
program to produce far more timely data for States and local
areas that will be used for various purposes, including the
distribution of nearly $200 billion in Federal funds annually
(Bureau of the Census); and
provide new statutory authority for the limited sharing of
data among designated Federal agencies solely for statistical
purposes. The proposed changes would permit these statistical
agencies to manage information in many important respects as
if they were part of a single agency, thereby increasing the
accuracy of statistical estimates and the efficiency of
Federal data collection.
In addition, the statistical system is poised to play a significant
role in the Nation's response to terrorism and demands to strengthen
homeland security. Thus, the 2003 budget includes, for example:
development of national data series based on administrative
data from State and local units of government to estimate the
incidence, prevalence, and consequences of terrorism including
injuries, deaths, and other health consequences; to measure
economic impacts including unemployment, workplace changes,
and security expenses; and to develop information for other
policy-relevant issues and responses (Bureau of Justice
Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Bureau of
Labor Statistics);
support for national data on the incidence and consequences
of cyber-related disruptions and attacks on the electronic
infrastructure associated with both national and international
access to networks and systems of records (Bureau of Justice
Statistics, National Infrastructure Protection Center, Federal
Trade Commission, Bureau of Economic Analysis); and
initiatives to address the implications of the war on
terrorism with respect to confidentiality of individual data
reports, security of data systems, and contingency plans for
continuing operations under emergency circumstances.
More broadly, the programs that provide essential statistical
information for use by governments, businesses, researchers, and the
public are carried out by some 70 agencies spread across every
department and several independent agencies. Approximately 40 percent of
the funding for these programs provides resources for ten agencies that
have statistical activities as their principal mission. (Please see
Table 12-1.) The remaining funding supports work in 60-plus agencies
that carry out statistical activities in conjunction with other missions
such as providing services or enforcing regulations. More comprehensive
budget and program information about the Federal statistical system will
be available in OMB's annual report, Statistical Programs of the United
States Government, Fiscal Year 2003, when it is published this summer.
The following highlights elaborate on the Administration's proposals to
strengthen the programs of the principal Federal statistical agencies.
HIGHLIGHTS OF 2003 PROGRAM PROPOSALS FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES
Bureau of Economic Analysis: Funding is requested to move forward with
critical improvements to the Nation's economic accounts that will: (1)
accelerate the release of BEA's major economic statistics, which will
dramatically increase the usefulness of these data, particularly for
government and business decision makers; (2) upgrade the computer
processing systems for the economic accounts, which will increase the
efficiency and reliability of these critical systems and ensure that
BEA's data are accurate, complete, and released on schedule; and (3)
incorporate into the economic accounts the new, internationally
developed North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which
will require BEA to integrate source data from statistical agencies that
are converting to NAICS on variable time schedules.
Bureau of Justice Statistics: Funding is requested to maintain BJS's
core statistical programs, including: (1) the National Crime
Victimization Survey, the Nation's primary source of information on
criminal victimization; (2) the Cybercrime Statistical Program,
initiated in 2001 to measure changes in the incidence, magnitude, and
consequences of electronic or cybercrime; (3) law enforcement data from
over 3,000 agencies on the organization and administration of police and
sheriffs' departments; (4) nationally representative prosecution data on
resources, policies, and practices of local prosecutors; (5) court and
sentencing data; and (6) data
[[Page 263]]
on correctional populations and facilities from Federal, State, and
local governments.
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1) modernize the
computing systems for monthly processing of the Producer Price Index
(PPI) and U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, improve index accuracy,
and produce new data outputs such as experimental PPIs for goods and
services that will provide the first economy-wide measures of changes in
producer prices; (2) proceed with a significant change in the way the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is revised and updated by instituting a
process for continuous improvement in place of the periodic major
revisions that were undertaken about every ten years; and (3) continue
to enhance the BLS information technology security program and replace
its decade-old local area network (LAN) infrastructure with a more
current and capable LAN system (through a central Department of Labor
appropriation).
Bureau of the Census: Funding is requested for Census 2000, 2010
Census Planning, and the Census Bureau's economic and demographic
programs. For Census 2000, funding is requested to: (1) complete
dissemination of data products; (2) respond to concerns from local and
tribal governments about the accuracy of the census counts; and (3)
complete evaluations of census operations. For 2010 Census Planning,
funding is requested to continue work to re-engineer the 2010 Census to
reduce operational risks, improve accuracy, provide more relevant data,
and contain costs by: (1) establishing an early design and testing
infrastructure to allow complete testing of all major elements of the
2010 Census design; (2) fully implementing the American Community Survey
to collect data historically collected on the decennial census ``long
form;'' and (3) continuing to replace the MAF/TIGER system with one that
uses Global Positioning System technology and satellite mapping imagery
to update and improve address information. For the Census Bureau's
economic and demographic programs, funding is requested to: (1) support
the data collection phases of the 2002 Economic Censuses and Census of
Governments; (2) improve measurement of services in the new economy,
mainly by the introduction of a quarterly service industry survey; (3)
gather new information on business investment in information technology
and on changes occurring in supply chain relationships; (4) improve and
accelerate the release of trade statistics; and (5) redesign samples
based on Census 2000 data for ongoing Federal household surveys that
gather data on topics such as crime, employment, and health.
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1)
annualize the collection of freight flow data to keep pace with a
rapidly changing industry; (2) improve the collection and analysis of
aviation data, particularly data related to airline security and
financial conditions; (3) enhance TranStats (the Intermodal
Transportation Data Base) and expand the National Transportation
Library, which provides access to the Nation's transportation research
and planning literature via the Internet; and (4) work on the Safety
Data Action Plan, a series of projects to improve the accuracy,
comparability, and timeliness of transportation safety data.
Economic Research Service: Funding is requested to: (1) support the
Economic Research Service's share of re-engineering the Agricultural
Resource Management Survey (ARMS), USDA's primary vehicle for collection
of information on a broad range of issues about agricultural resource
use and costs and farm financial conditions, to improve the quality of
key economic indicators of the farm sector derived from the survey,
improve the coverage of commodities surveyed, provide ARMS data for key
farm states in addition to the Nation as a whole, integrate ARMS with
other USDA data collections, and improve the dissemination of ARMS data
over the Internet; and (2) examine economic issues with respect to
invasive crop pests and livestock diseases within the context of
increasingly global agricultural markets.
Energy Information Administration: Funding is requested to: (1)
continue updating and overhauling EIA's 20-year-old energy consumption
surveys to base them on Census 2000 data; (2) complete the overhaul of
electric power surveys and data systems to accommodate changes in the
industry brought on by deregulation and restructuring; (3) continue
improving data quality and accuracy in several key energy surveys
(including petroleum, natural gas and electricity); (4) begin
development of additional regional energy information; and (5) initiate
a weekly survey of natural gas underground storage to replace one that
the American Gas Association plans to discontinue.
National Agricultural Statistics Service: Funding is requested to: (1)
conduct the 2002 Census of Agriculture, which includes mailing three
million questionnaires, capturing and editing data, providing assistance
to respondents, conducting analyses of census returns, and summarizing
census results; (2) enhance computer security protection to ensure
confidentiality for reported data and to prevent unauthorized access to
market sensitive data prior to public release; (3) develop and implement
e-Gov strategies, including capabilities for electronic data reporting
and enhanced services to the public; (4) develop an annual integrated
locality-based county estimates program; and (5) in cooperation with the
Economic Research Service, expand the Agricultural Resource Management
Survey (discussed above).
National Center for Education Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1)
support the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) program,
including administration of the State-level NAEP assessments that are an
integral part of the accountability provisions included in the No Child
Left Behind Act, (2) continue data collection, analysis, and reporting
for a variety of surveys, including the Schools and Staffing Survey, the
National Assessment of Adult Literacy, the National Household Education
Survey, and the National Study of Faculty and Students; (3) enhance
longitudinal surveys, including the Early Childhood Longitudinal
[[Page 264]]
Study kindergarten and birth cohort data collections; and (4) continue
work to enhance electronic data collection and dissemination.
National Center for Health Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1)
continue a multi-year effort to retool and improve national health data
systems, including the Vital Statistics System, in order to more fully
reflect data needs and utilize state-of-the-art technologies; and (2)
provide information critical to monitoring the dynamics of health and
health care, and provide the underpinnings for biomedical research,
health policy, and public health practice through support of the
National Health Interview Survey, the National Health and Nutrition
Examination Survey, the National Vital Statistics System, and the
National Health Care Survey.
TABLE 12-1. 2001-2003 BUDGET AUTHORITY FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES \1\
(in millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003
actual estimate estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bureau of Economic Analysis................................................. $50 $59 $70
Bureau of Justice Statistics................................................ 29 32 34
Bureau of Labor Statistics.................................................. 464 489 511
Bureau of the Census........................................................ \2\478 \2\535 757
Periodic Censuses and Programs............................................ \2\292 \2\336 522
Salaries and Expenses..................................................... 186 199 235
Bureau of Transportation Statistics......................................... 31 32 35
Economic Research Service................................................... 69 70 \3\82
Energy Information Administration........................................... 79 82 83
National Agricultural Statistics Service \4\................................ 106 119 \3\149
National Center for Education Statistics.................................... 120 \5\197 191
Statistics................................................................ 80 85 95
Assessment................................................................ 36 \5\108 91
National Assessment Governing Board....................................... 4 4 5
National Center for Health Statistics....................................... 126 131 130
PHS Evaluation Funds...................................................... 72 23 47
Budget Authority.......................................................... 54 108 83
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The budget data for each fiscal year are adjusted to include the full share of accruing employee pensions
and annuitiants' health benefits. For more information, please see Chapter 14, ``Preview Report,'' in this
volume.
\2\ Does not include an offset to the appropriation of unobligated balances available.
\3\ Beginning in 2003, ERS and NASS, rather than a central USDA account, will be responsible for paying their
own rent. Therefore, the 2003 level includes an additional $2.8 million and $5.9 million, respectively, for
these activities.
\4\ Includes funds for the periodic Census of Agriculture and Special Studies of $15.0, $25.4, and $42.3 million
in 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively.
\5\ Includes $17.0 million in administrative contract costs not necessary in 2003, consistent with the biennial
assessment plan authorized in the No Child Left Behind Act.