[Analytical Perspectives]
[Federal Borrowing and Debt]
[12. Federal Borrowing and Debt]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]


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                       FEDERAL BORROWING AND DEBT

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                     12.  FEDERAL BORROWING AND DEBT

  Debt is the largest legally binding obligation of the Federal 
Government. At the end of 2000, the Government owed $3,410 billion of 
principal to the people who had loaned it the money to pay for past 
deficits. During that year, the Government paid the public around $233 
billion of interest on this debt.

  After 28 consecutive years of deficits financed mainly by borrowing 
from the public, the Government had a $69 billion unified budget surplus 
in 1998. The surplus rose in the following two years, reaching $236 
billion in 2000. As a result, the Government reversed the many years of 
debt accumulation and repaid $363 billion of publicly held debt in the 
past three years. The budget estimates that debt will be reduced by $236 
billion this year and by a historic $2.0 trillion over the following 
decade. This will be a debt milestone for the nation. Under the 
assumptions in this budget, a larger debt reduction would be made 
difficult by the marketable securities that will not have matured by the 
end of 2011 and by the various issues of non-marketable debt that will 
not have matured or that serve functions that continue to be needed.

                    Trends in Debt Since World War II

  Table 12-1 depicts trends in Federal debt held by the public from 
World War II to the present and estimates from the present to 2011. (It 
is supplemented for earlier years by tables 7.1-7.3 in Historical 
Tables, which is published as a separate volume of the budget.) As this 
table shows, Federal debt peaked at 108.6 percent of Gross Domestic 
Product (GDP) in 1946, just after the end of the war. From then until 
the 1970s, Federal debt grew gradually, but, due to inflation, it 
declined in real terms. Because of an expanding economy as well as 
inflation, Federal debt as a percentage of GDP decreased almost every 
year. With households borrowing large amounts to buy homes and consumer 
durables, and with businesses borrowing large amounts to buy plant and 
equipment, Federal debt also decreased almost every year as a percentage 
of the total credit market debt outstanding. The cumulative effect was 
impressive. From 1950 to 1975, debt held by the public declined from 
80.1 percent of GDP to 25.3 percent, and from 55.3 percent of credit 
market debt to 18.4 percent. Despite rising interest rates, interest 
outlays became a smaller share of the budget and were roughly stable as 
a percentage of GDP.
  During the 1970s, large budget deficits emerged as the economy was 
disrupted by oil shocks and inflation. The nominal amount of Federal 
debt more than doubled, and Federal debt relative to GDP and credit 
market debt stopped declining after the middle of the decade. The growth 
of Federal debt accelerated in the 1980s, and the ratio of Federal debt 
to GDP grew sharply. The ratio of Federal debt to credit market debt 
also rose, though to a much lesser extent. Interest outlays on debt held 
by the public, calculated as a percentage of either total Federal 
outlays or GDP, increased as well.
  The growth of Federal debt held by the public was decelerating by the 
mid-1990s, however, and the debt has declined markedly relative to both 
GDP and total credit market debt. It fell from 49.5 percent of GDP in 
1993 to 34.7 percent in 2000; and it fell more gradually and unevenly 
from 26.6 percent of total credit market debt in 1993 to 18.9 percent in 
2000. Interest on this debt, whether in absolute terms or relative to 
total outlays and GDP, has been declining as well. Interest as a share 
of outlays peaked at 16.5 percent in 1989 and then fell to 13.0 percent 
by 2000.

              Projected Trends in Debt Over the Next Decade

  This budget estimates a large surplus again this year, with a $236 
billion reduction in publicly held debt. (For the exact relationship 
between the unified budget surplus and the repayment of debt held by the 
public, see table 12-3 below and its explanation.) Over the following 
decade, as table 12-3 shows below, the surpluses (including the 
contingency reserve) are estimated to remain at roughly similar levels 
for several years and then to grow larger. As a result, the debt held by 
the public is estimated to decline from $3.2 trillion at the end of 2001 
to $1.2 trillion at the end of 2011, a historic $2.0 trillion reduction. 
By the end of 2011 debt held by the public is estimated to be 6.7 
percent of GDP, the lowest percentage since shortly after the United 
States entered the First World War in 1917. Interest on this debt is 
estimated to be only 3.3 percent of total outlays \1\ and to equal only 
0.5 percent of GDP. \2\ These percentages are about one-quarter of the 
percentages in 2000.
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  \1\ This measure excludes the earnings on excess balances. If the 
latter were included, interest would be only 1.3 percent of total 
outlays.
  \2\ The macroeconomic assumptions behind these projections are 
reviewed in chapter 1 of this volume, ``Economic Assumptions.'' The 
uncertainty in budget projections is discussed in A Blueprint for New 
Beginnings: A Responsible Budget for America's Priorities (February 
2001), pp. 14-16.
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  Large though this debt reduction is, its size is limited by the amount 
of available debt that can reasonably be redeemed. As table 12-2 shows, 
$1,158 billion of publicly held debt is estimated by the Office of 
Management and Budget to remain at the end of 2011. The budgetary 
assumptions behind these estimates do not prejudge future debt 
management decisions.

  At the end of February, $529 billion of Treasury bonds were 
outstanding that will not mature until after 2011. As of April, Treasury 
is continuing to sell new 30-year bonds. It is also selling new 10-year 
notes, and

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                                                 Table 12-1.  TRENDS IN FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC
                                                              (Dollar amounts in billions)
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                                                                       Current dollars                          Debt held by the    Interest on the debt
                                                            ------------------------------------  Debt held    public as a percent   held by the public
                                                                                                    by the             of:          as a percent of: \3\
                        Fiscal year                          Debt held                            public: FY -------------------------------------------
                                                               by the     Excess        Net          1996                  Credit
                                                               public    balances  indebtedness  dollars \1\     GDP       market     Total       GDP
                                                                                                                          debt \2\   outlays
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1946.......................................................      241.9  .........        241.9      1,728.3       108.6        N/A        7.4        1.8
1950.......................................................      219.0  .........        219.0      1,270.7        80.1       53.3       11.4        1.8
1955.......................................................      226.6  .........        226.6      1,154.9        57.3       43.2        7.6        1.3
1960.......................................................      236.8  .........        236.8      1,070.7        45.6       33.8        8.5        1.5

1965.......................................................      260.8  .........        260.8      1,102.4        37.9       26.9        8.1        1.4
1970.......................................................      283.2  .........        283.2        994.2        28.0       20.8        7.9        1.5
1975.......................................................      394.7  .........        394.7      1,020.6        25.3       18.4        7.5        1.6
1980.......................................................      711.9  .........        711.9      1,271.6        26.1       18.5       10.6        2.3

1985.......................................................    1,507.4  .........      1,507.4      2,051.0        36.4       22.3       16.2        3.7
1986.......................................................    1,740.8  .........      1,740.8      2,313.1        39.5       22.6       16.1        3.6
1987.......................................................    1,889.9  .........      1,889.9      2,444.1        40.7       22.3       16.0        3.5
1988.......................................................    2,051.8  .........      2,051.8      2,569.3        40.9       22.2       16.2        3.4
1989.......................................................    2,191.0  .........      2,191.0      2,641.9        40.5       22.0       16.5        3.5

1990.......................................................    2,411.8  .........      2,411.8      2,803.0        42.1       22.6       16.2        3.5
1991.......................................................    2,689.3  .........      2,689.3      3,008.3        45.3       24.1       16.2        3.6
1992.......................................................    3,000.1  .........      3,000.1      3,270.0        48.2       25.7       15.5        3.4
1993.......................................................    3,248.8  .........      3,248.8      3,458.8        49.5       26.6       14.9        3.2
1994.......................................................    3,433.4  .........      3,433.4      3,577.9        49.4       26.8       14.4        3.0

1995.......................................................    3,604.8  .........      3,604.8      3,676.8        49.2       26.6       15.8        3.3
1996.......................................................    3,734.5  .........      3,734.5      3,734.5        48.5       26.2       15.8        3.2
1997.......................................................    3,772.8  .........      3,772.8      3,700.6        46.1       25.2       15.7        3.1
1998.......................................................    3,721.6  .........      3,721.6      3,599.3        42.9       23.3       15.1        2.9
1999.......................................................    3,632.9  .........      3,632.9      3,464.9        39.8       21.2       13.8        2.6

2000.......................................................    3,410.1  .........      3,410.1      3,191.0        34.7       18.9       13.0        2.4
2001 estimate..............................................    3,174.2  .........      3,174.2      2,908.2        30.8        N/A       11.6        2.1
2002 estimate..............................................    2,946.8  .........      2,946.8      2,644.6        27.1        N/A       10.1        1.8
2003 estimate..............................................    2,719.5  .........      2,719.5      2,390.5        23.8        N/A        9.2        1.6
2004 estimate..............................................    2,473.2  .........      2,473.2      2,129.3        20.5        N/A        8.3        1.4

2005 estimate..............................................    2,219.4  .........      2,219.4      1,871.4        17.5        N/A        7.2        1.2
2006 estimate..............................................    1,928.2  .........      1,928.2      1,592.4        14.4        N/A        6.3        1.0
2007 estimate..............................................    1,601.7  .........      1,601.7      1,295.6        11.4        N/A        5.3        0.9
2008 estimate..............................................    1,403.9      161.5      1,242.3      1,112.5         9.5        N/A        4.5        0.7
2009 estimate..............................................    1,278.7      442.8        835.9        992.4         8.2        N/A        4.0        0.6

2010 estimate..............................................    1,207.9      824.0        383.9        918.0         7.3        N/A        3.5        0.6
2011 estimate..............................................    1,157.7    1,287.2       -129.5        861.7         6.7        N/A        3.3        0.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N/A = Not Available.

\1\ Debt in current dollars deflated by the GDP chain-type price index with fiscal year 1996 equal to 100.

\2\ Total credit market debt owed by domestic nonfinancial sectors, modified in a few early years to be consistent with budget concepts for the
  measurement of Federal debt. Financial sectors are omitted to avoid double counting, since financial intermediaries borrow in the credit market
  primarily in order to finance lending in the credit market. Source: Federal Reserve Board flow of funds accounts. Projections are not available

\3\ Interest on debt held by the public for 1946-2007 is estimated as the interest on Treasury debt securities less the ``interest received by trust
  funds'' (subfunction 901 less subfunctions 902 and 903). For 2008-2011, in order to maintain comparability with debt held by the public, it does not
  include interest earnings on excess balances, which are offsetting receipts within subfunction 901. The estimate of interest on debt held by the
  public does not include the comparatively small amount of interest paid on agency debt or the offsets for interest on Treasury debt received by other
  Government accounts (revolving funds and special funds).

the maturity of 10-year notes sold after September will extend beyond 
2011. Regardless of the size of the surplus, these securities can be 
redeemed early only if Treasury can buy them back in the market. Some 
holders of these securities, especially those who place special value on 
the absence of any credit risk, will not be willing to sell them back to 
the Treasury except at premiums that are excessively high from the 
standpoint of the Federal Government. The Congressional Budget Office 
(CBO) agrees, noting in its January report that ``it is unlikely that 
all, or even a significant share, of the holders of those bonds will 
choose to sell them at prices that the government is willing to pay.'' 
\3\
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  \3\ CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2002-2011 
(January 2001), page 15.
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  A second group of Treasury securities that may not readily be 
redeemable consists of special purpose, non-marketable debt. Savings 
bonds, the largest component, are thought by many people to encourage 
private saving by small savers in a convenient and safe investment 
vehicle. Furthermore, even if the Government decided to terminate this 
program, many savings bonds, including those now being sold, do not 
mature until after 2011. State and local government series securities, 
the second largest type of non-marketable debt, are a way

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                  Table 12-2.  NON-REDEEMABLE DEBT  \1\
                        (In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Estimate
                                                                  2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marketable Treasury Debt: \2\
   Coupon issues
    (non-matured 10- and 30-year notes and bonds).............       677
   Inflation-indexed issues \3\
    (non-matured 10- and 30-year notes and bonds).............       113

Non-Marketable Treasury Debt:
   Savings bonds..............................................       170
   State and local government series: securities used                 86
   temporarily to house proceeds of bond issues...............
   Foreign series: bonds that back debt in certain emerging           19
   markets, or ``Brady Bonds'' (mature during 2019-2023)......
   Domestic series: bonds that back REFCORP debt issued as            30
   part of the Savings and Loan association clean-up (mature
   during 2019-2030)..........................................
   Government account series: Thrift Savings Fund (defined-           76
   contribution pension plan for Federal civilian employees)..
   Unamortized discounts and premiums (primarily for zero-           -33
   coupon bonds in the foreign and domestic series)...........

Agency Debt:
   Tennessee Valley Authority and other agencies..............        20

    Total.....................................................     1,158
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Types of debt securities are shown at par values.The total of $1,158
  billion includes an adjustment for unamortized discounts and premiums,
  which is consistent with the measurement of debt held by the public.
\2\ This table includes estimates for Treasury buybacks of outstanding
  securities only through FY 2001. These estimates assume that Treasury
  will buy back $35 billion (face value) of securities in FY 2001.
\3\ Includes indexation adjustments based on the economic assumptions
  for this budget.

for state and local governments to invest bond proceeds temporarily. The 
interest rate that states and localities pay on their bonds is reduced 
by Federal income tax exemption, and Federal legislation restricts them 
from earning arbitrage profits by investing bond proceeds in higher 
yielding investments. Other non-marketable Treasury securities with long 
maturities were issued to back-up certain debt that was issued to 
resolve financial problems among savings and loan associations, or to 
back-up debt in the emerging markets of a few foreign countries. Still 
other non-marketable securities were sold to the Thrift Savings Fund, a 
defined-contribution pension plan for Federal civilian employees, which 
offers investment in Treasury securities as one option.
  In addition to Treasury securities, Federal debt includes a small 
amount of securities issued by a few Federal agencies. These securities 
may not readily be redeemed and in some cases, as discussed in a later 
section, are inherent in the way the program operates.
  It is impossible to know with confidence how much non-redeemable debt 
will remain in 2008, when for the first time the surplus is estimated to 
be larger than the maturing debt, or how much will remain in 2011. That 
will depend on many debt management decisions that have not yet been 
made and will not be made until the appropriate future occasions. The 
budget therefore makes a number of simplified assumptions that are not 
intended to prejudge future debt management decisions. Marketable coupon 
securities are discontinued after 2005. All bonds that are callable 
prior to maturity are called on the first call date. Treasury buys back 
$35 billion of bonds in 2001; consistent with previous budget documents, 
estimates are not made of buybacks in later years. Savings bonds decline 
slightly, and the state and local government series declines 
significantly.
  The Congressional Budget Office has also estimated the debt not 
available for redemption. Their latest estimates, published in January 
2001, project that $818 billion of publicly held debt would be 
unavailable for redemption at the end of 2011. \4\ Compared to the 
assumptions in the budget, CBO assumes that marketable notes and bonds 
will be discontinued earlier and buybacks will continue beyond 2001. 
They project ``that the Treasury will continue its buyback program at 
approximately the current level through next year but that after 2002, 
the amount of debt it repurchases will dwindle.'' \5\
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  \4\ Ibid., pages 14-15.
  \5\ Ibid., page 15.
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  Based on the budget estimates, the surplus eventually exceeds the debt 
that can be redeemed in the same year--what happens to the difference? 
This budget does not make any assumption about how the difference is 
held and simply calls it ``excess balances,'' a term that does not have 
any connotations about how the amounts are held. \6\ It uses the term 
``net indebtedness'' for the difference between debt held by the public 
and excess balances. Excess balances start in 2008 and grow to $1.3 
trillion in 2011, when net indebtedness becomes negative.
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  \6\ The word ``excess'' means in excess of the amounts held for 
operational and programmatic purposes. Excess balances are assumed to 
earn interest. Because no institutional arrangements are assumed 
regarding how or whether the excess balances might be deposited or 
invested, the interest earnings on excess balances are included, as 
offsetting receipts, in the account ``interest on Treasury debt 
securities (gross).''
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  The Government itself does not have any satisfactory way to hold these 
excess balances as assets. As the Administration stated in A Blueprint 
for New Beginnings: A Responsible Budget for America's Priorities 
(February 2001): ``The Administration believes that Government 
acquisition of the private economy is utterly unacceptable as a matter 
of principle. . . . [and] that Government investment of these 
uncommitted funds in private companies and securities would harm the 
economy's long run growth prospects.'' \7\ The Administration also 
believes that it would be impracticable to hold such large amounts in 
its accounts at the Federal Reserve Banks and other depositories. \8\ 
Indeed, holding such amounts in the Federal Reserve would simply shift 
to it the need to invest in the private sector.
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  \7\ A Blueprint for New Beginnings, page 13.
  \8\ Ibid., page 31.
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  In fact, it should not be supposed that excess balances will ever 
actually be accumulated. The projections in this budget are for ten and 
one-half years, a long period with many inherent uncertainties. The 
budget has therefore set aside ``over $0.8 trillion in reserve funds 
that can be used for additional needs, contingency purposes, and further 
debt reduction if this became financially viable.'' \9\ The budget 
recognizes that a num

[[Page 228]]

ber of reasons could require the commitment of more resources, such as 
national defense and entitlement reforms, and that the debt buyback 
program may remain more cost-effective for some period of time. It also 
says that unneeded funds should be left with American workers through 
lower taxes in the future. \10\ To be realistic, any plan over ten years 
must allow for contingencies and other uncertainties in its construction 
and its interpretation. Excess balances are a recognition that the 
future is uncertain and many decisions will not be made until later 
years.
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  \9\ Ibid., page 11 footnote. Also see table S-1 of the Budget for the 
place of the contingency reserve in a summary of the President's 10-year 
plan.
  \10\ See generally ibid., chapter III, especially pages 16-17.
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Debt Held by the Public, Gross Federal Debt, and Liabilities Other Than 
                                  Debt

  The Federal Government issues debt securities for two principal 
purposes. First, it borrows from the public to finance the Federal 
deficit. \11\ Second, it issues debt to Government accounts, primarily 
trust funds, that accumulate surpluses. By law, trust fund surpluses 
must generally be invested in Federal securities. The gross Federal debt 
is defined to consist of both the debt held by the public and the debt 
held by Government accounts. Nearly all the Federal debt has been issued 
by the Treasury and is sometimes called ``public debt,'' but a small 
portion has been issued by other Government agencies and is called 
``agency debt.'' \12\
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  \11\ Debt held by the public was measured until 1988 as the par value 
(or face value) of the security, which is the principal amount due at 
maturity. (The only exception was savings bonds.) However, most Treasury 
securities are sold at a discount from par, and some are sold at a 
premium. Treasury debt held by the public is now measured as the sales 
price plus the amortized discount (or less the amortized premium). At 
the time of sale, the value equals the sales price. Subsequently, the 
value equals the sales price plus the amount of the discount that has 
been amortized up to that time. In equivalent terms, the measured value 
of the debt equals par less the unamortized discount. (For a security 
sold at a premium, the definition is symmetrical.) When the measurement 
was changed, the data in Historical Tables were revised as far back as 
feasible, which was 1956. Agency debt, except for zero-coupon 
certificates, is recorded at par. For further analysis of these 
concepts, see Special Analysis E, ``Borrowing and Debt,'' in Special 
Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, 
pages E-5 to E-8, although some of the practices it describes have been 
changed. In 1997 Treasury began to sell inflation-indexed notes and 
bonds. The recorded value of these securities includes a periodic 
adjustment for inflation.
  \12\ The term ``agency debt'' is defined more narrowly in the budget 
than customarily in the securities market, where it includes not only 
the debt of the Federal agencies listed in table 12-4 but also the debt 
of the Government-sponsored enterprises listed in table 8-11 at the end 
of Chapter 8 and certain Government-guaranteed securities.
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  Borrowing from the public, whether by the Treasury or by some other 
Federal agency, has a significant impact on the economy. Borrowing from 
the public is normally a good approximation of the Federal demand on 
credit markets. Even if the proceeds are used productively for tangible 
or intangible investment, the Federal demand on credit markets has to be 
financed out of the saving of households and businesses, the State and 
local sector, or the rest of the world. Federal borrowing thereby 
competes with the borrowing of other sectors for financial resources in 
the credit market, and tends to increase interest rates and reduce 
private capital accumulation. Borrowing from the public thus affects the 
size and composition of assets held by the private sector and the 
perceived wealth of the public. It also increases the amount of taxes 
required to pay interest to the public on Federal debt. Borrowing from 
the public is therefore an important concern of Federal fiscal policy. 
\13\
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  \13\ The Federal sector of the national income and product accounts 
provides a measure of the current surplus or deficit that can be used to 
analyze the effect of Federal fiscal policy on national saving within 
the framework of an integrated set of measures of aggregate U.S. 
economic activity. The Federal sector and its differences from the 
budget are discussed in chapter 16 of this volume, ``National Income and 
Product Accounts.'' Also see chapter 6 of this volume, Part IV, the 
section on the analysis of saving and investment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Issuing debt securities to Government accounts performs an essential 
function in accounting for the operation of these funds. The balances of 
debt represent the cumulative surpluses of these funds due to the excess 
of their tax receipts, interest receipts, and other collections compared 
to their spending. The interest on the debt compensates these funds--and 
the members of the public who pay earmarked taxes or user fees into 
these funds--for spending some of the funds' collections at a later time 
than when they receive the money. The debt securities are a liability of 
the general fund to the fund that holds the securities and are a 
mechanism for that fund to accumulate interest on its balances. The fund 
can use these invested balances in later years to draw upon the U.S. 
Treasury to make future payments on its behalf to the public. Public 
policy may deliberately run surpluses and accumulate debt in trust funds 
and other Government accounts in anticipation of future spending.
  However, issuing debt to Government accounts does not have any of the 
economic effects of borrowing from the public. It is an internal 
transaction of the Government, made between two accounts that are both 
within the Government itself. It is not a current transaction of the 
Government with the public; it does not draw upon private saving and 
compete with the private sector for available funds in the credit 
market; it does not provide the account with resources other than a 
legal claim on the U.S. Treasury; its interest does not have to be 
financed by taxes or other means; and it does not represent the 
estimated amount of the account's future transactions with the public. 
For example, if the account records the transactions of a social 
insurance program, the debt that it holds does not represent the 
actuarial present value of expected future benefits for either the 
current participants in the program or the larger group of current 
participants plus the expected future participants over some stated time 
period. The future transactions of Federal social insurance and employee 
retirement programs, which own about three-fourths of the debt held by 
Government accounts, are important in their own right and need to be 
considered separately. This can be done through information published in 
actuarial and financial reports for these programs. \14\ Debt held by 
the public is therefore a better concept than gross Federal debt for 
analyzing the effect of the budget on the economy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \14\ Extensive actuarial analyses of the social security and medicare 
programs are published in the annual reports of the boards of trustees 
of these funds. Annual actuarial reports are also prepared for Federal 
employee retirement funds. A summary of actuarial estimates for these 
and other programs is included annually in the Financial Report of the 
United States Government (formerly the Consolidated Financial 
Statements), prepared by the Financial Management Service of the 
Treasury Department.

  Debt securities do not encompass all the liabilities of the Federal 
Government. For example, accounts payable occur in the normal course of 
buying goods and services; social security benefits are due and payable 
as of the end of the month but, according to statute, are paid during 
the next month; loan guarantee liabil

[[Page 229]]

                                                   Table 12-3.  FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT
                                                                (In billions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                       Estimate
                                                      Actual -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007     2008     2009     2010     2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financing:
  Unified budget surplus...........................      236     281     231     242     262     269     305     340      373      420      465      526
    On-budget surplus/reserve for contingencies \1\       87     125      59      49      52      32      52      69       85      117      142      184
    Off-budget surplus.............................      150     156     172     193     211     237     252     270      287      303      323      343
  Financing other than the change in debt held by
   the public:
    Premiums paid (-) on buybacks of Treasury             -6     -10  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  .......  .......  .......  .......
     securities \2\................................
    Changes in: \3\
      Treasury operating cash balance..............        4       3  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  .......  .......  .......  .......
      Checks outstanding, deposit funds, etc. \4\..        3      -*      -1  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  .......  .......  .......  .......
    Seigniorage on coins...........................        2       2       2       2       2       2       2       2        2        2        2        2
    Less: Net financing disbursements:
      Direct loan financing accounts...............      -22     -39      -4     -17     -18     -17     -16     -16      -16      -16      -16      -15
      Guaranteed loan financing accounts...........        4      -1      -1       1      -*      -*       1       1        1        1        1        1
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Total, financing other than the change in        -13     -45      -4     -15     -16     -15     -14     -13      -13      -13      -13      -13
         debt held by the public...................
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Total, amount available to repay debt          223     236     227     227     246     254     291     326      359      406      452      513
           held by the public......................
    Change in debt held by the public: \5\ \6\
      Change in debt held by the public............     -223    -236    -227    -227    -246    -254    -291    -326     -198     -125      -71      -50
      Less change in excess balances...............  .......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......     -162     -281     -381     -463
        Change in net indebtedness.................     -223    -236    -227    -227    -246    -254    -291    -326     -359     -406     -452     -513

Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year:
  Debt issued by Treasury..........................    5,601   5,598   5,637   5,698   5,759   5,832   5,890   5,932    6,118    6,395    6,749    7,140
  Adjustment for Treasury debt not subject to            -15     -15     -15     -15     -15     -15     -15     -15      -15      -15      -15      -15
   limitation and agency debt subject to limitation
   \7\.............................................
  Adjustment for discount and premium \8\..........        6       6       6       6       6       6       6       6        6        6        6        6
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total, debt subject to statutory limitation \9\    5,592   5,588   5,627   5,688   5,749   5,822   5,881   5,922    6,108    6,385    6,740    7,130

Debt Outstanding, End of Year:
  Gross Federal debt: \10\
    Debt issued by Treasury........................    5,601   5,598   5,637   5,698   5,759   5,832   5,890   5,932    6,118    6,395    6,749    7,140
    Debt issued by other agencies..................       28      27      27      26      25      24      23      21       21       21       20       20
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, gross Federal debt....................    5,629   5,625   5,664   5,724   5,784   5,856   5,913   5,953    6,138    6,415    6,770    7,160

Held by:
  Debt securities held as assets by Government         2,219   2,451   2,717   3,004   3,310   3,636   3,985   4,352    4,735    5,137    5,562    6,002
   accounts........................................
  Debt securities held as assets by the public: \6\
    Debt held by the public........................    3,410   3,174   2,947   2,720   2,473   2,219   1,928   1,602    1,404    1,279    1,208    1,158
    Less excess balances...........................  .......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......     -162     -443     -824   -1,287
      Net indebtedness \11\........................    3,410   3,174   2,947   2,720   2,473   2,219   1,928   1,602    1,242      836      384     -129
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 *$500 million or less.
\1\ The actual amount of annual debt retirement will vary depending upon the availability of eligible redeemable debt, and the use, if any, of the
  contingency reserve.
\2\ This table includes estimates for Treasury buybacks of outstanding securities only through FY 2001.These estimates assume that Treasury will buy
  back $35 billion (face value) of securities in FY 2001.The premiums paid on buybacks are based on experience to date and the interest rates in the
  economic assumptions.
\3\ A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) would be a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign.An
  increase in checks outstanding or deposit fund balances (which are liabilities) would also be a means of financing a deficit and therefore would also
  have a positive sign.
\4\ Besides checks outstanding and deposit funds, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability accounts, allocations of
  special drawing rights, and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets other than the Treasury operating cash balance, miscellaneous asset accounts, and
  profit on sale of gold.
\5\ Indian tribal funds that are owned by the Indian tribes and held and managed in a fiduciary capacity by the Government on the tribes' behalf were
  reclassified from trust funds to deposit funds as of October 1, 1999.Their holdings of Treasury securities were accordingly reclassified from debt
  held by Government accounts to debt held by the public, which affected the change in debt held by the public without affecting borrowing or the
  repayment of debt.
\6\ The amount of the unified budget surplus that is available to repay debt held by the public is estimated to be more than the amount of debt that is
  available to be redeemed in 2008 and subsequent years.The difference is assumed to be held as ``excess balances.'' (``Excess'' means in excess of the
  amounts held for operational and programmatic purposes.) The debt held by the public is the amount of Federal debt securities held by the public. The
  net indebtedness is the debt held by the public less the excess balances.
\7\ Consists primarily of Federal Financing Bank debt.
\8\ Consists of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount
  on Government account series securities.
\9\ The statutory debt limit is $5,950 billion.
\10\ Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost entirely measured at sales price plus amortized
  discount or less amortized premium.Agency debt is almost entirely measured at face value.Treasury securities in the Government account series are
  measured at face value less unrealized discount (if any).
\11\ At the end of 2000, the Federal Reserve Banks held $511 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the public held $2,899 billion.Debt held by
  the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years.

ities are incurred when the Government guarantees the payment of 
interest and principal on private loans; and liabilities for future 
pension payments are incurred as part of the current compensation for 
the services performed by Federal civilian and military employees in 
producing Government outputs. Like debt securities sold in the credit 
market, these liabilities have their own distinctive effects on the 
economy. Federal liabilities are analyzed within the broader conceptual 
framework of Federal resources and responsibilities in chap

[[Page 230]]

ter 2 of this volume, ``Stewardship: Toward a Federal Balance Sheet.'' 
The different types of liabilities are reported annually in the 
financial statements of the major Federal agencies and in the Financial 
Report of the United States Government, prepared by the Treasury 
Department.

                 Government Surpluses and Debt Repayment

  Table 12-3 summarizes Federal borrowing and debt from 2000 through 
2011. In 2000 the Government repaid $223 billion of debt held by the 
public, and the debt outstanding decreased to $3,410 billion. The debt 
held by Government accounts increased $246 billion, and gross Federal 
debt increased by $23 billion to a level of $5,629 billion.
  Debt held by the public.--Table 12-3 shows the relationship between 
the Federal surplus and the repayment of debt held by the public. The 
repayment of publicly held debt depends on the Federal Government's 
expenditure programs and tax laws, on the economic conditions that 
influence tax receipts and outlays, and on debt management policy. The 
sensitivity of the budget to economic conditions is analyzed in chapter 
1 of this volume.
  The total or unified budget surplus consists of the on-budget surplus 
and the surplus of the off-budget Federal entities, which have been 
excluded from the budget by law. Under present law, the off-budget 
Federal entities are the social security trust funds (old-age and 
survivors insurance and disability insurance) and the Postal Service 
fund. \15\ The off-budget totals consist almost entirely of social 
security, which had a large surplus in 2000 and is estimated to have 
large and growing surpluses throughout the projection period. The on-
budget surplus is labeled ``on-budget surplus/reserve for 
contingencies'' in table 12-3, because the budget has set aside $0.8 
trillion that can be used for additional needs and contingency purposes. 
To the extent it is used for such purposes, outlays would be higher or 
receipts lower than estimated for this table, and the realized on-budget 
surplus would be correspondingly lower.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \15\ For further explanation of the off-budget Federal entities, see 
chapter 19, ``Off-Budget Federal Entities and Non-Budgetary 
Activities.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The Government's ability to repay debt held by the public depends not 
only on the size of the total surplus but also on two other 
considerations--financing other than the change in debt held by the 
public, and the availability of redeemable debt.
  Financing other than the change in debt held by the public.--The 
Government's ability to repay debt held by the public, or its need to 
borrow, has always depended on several other factors besides the unified 
budget surplus or deficit, such as the change in Treasury cash balances 
or, in recent years, the net financing disbursements of credit programs. 
As shown in table 12-3, these other factors--which in this table are 
called ``financing other than the change in debt held by the public''--
can either increase or decrease the Government's repayment of debt. (An 
increase in its ability to repay debt is represented by a positive sign, 
like the surplus; a decrease is represented by a negative sign, like a 
deficit.) In 2000 the total surplus was $236 billion and the ``financing 
other than the change in debt held by the public'' was -$13 billion. As 
a result, the Government was able to repay $223 billion of publicly held 
debt. The sum of the surplus and the other financing is roughly stable 
over the next few years and then rises sharply, as a result of which the 
Government repays large and generally increasing amounts of debt each 
year until limited by the availability of redeemable debt.
  When the surplus or deficit is large, it is usually a good 
approximation to say that ``the surplus is used to repay debt held by 
the public'' or ``the deficit is financed by borrowing from the 
public.'' Over the last 10 years, the cumulative deficit was $882 
billion and the increase in debt held by the public was $998 billion. 
The other factors added a total of $116 billion of borrowing over that 
period, an average of $12 billion per year. The variation was wide, 
ranging from additional borrowing (or lower repayment) of $36 billion to 
reduced borrowing of $19 billion. The other factors that affect 
borrowing do not depend on the size of the surplus or deficit. Thus, 
when the surplus or deficit is moderate in size, the other factors that 
affect borrowing may account for a large proportion of the change in 
Federal debt held by the public.
  Many of these other factors are small in most years compared to 
borrowing from the public, even when the surplus or deficit is 
relatively small. This is because they are limited by their own nature. 
Decreases in cash balances, for example, while they may occasionally be 
large, are inherently limited by past accumulations, which themselves 
required financing when they were built up.
  However, two other factors in the financing may be relatively large 
for extended periods. The first is premiums on debt buybacks--the excess 
of the price paid over the book value. As discussed earlier, the 
Treasury Department is buying back some outstanding bonds as part of its 
work to manage the reduction of the publicly held debt. The premiums at 
present are the result of interest rates having fallen since the bonds 
were sold and are recorded outside the budget totals as a separate entry 
in the ``financing other than the change in debt held by the public.'' 
It is important to note, however, that the volume of buybacks to date 
has been small relative to the outstanding stock of debt. The premiums 
were $5.5 billion in 2000 on bonds with a book value of $21.2 billion 
and are estimated to be $10 billion in 2001, when buybacks are assumed 
to be made over the entire year. (Discounts would be recorded in the 
same way, if interest rates were to rise above the rates at the time of 
sale.) This classification is explained in a section of chapter 24, 
``Budget System and Concepts and Glossary.''
  The second such factor was created by the Federal Credit Reform Act of 
1990. Budget outlays for direct loans and loan guarantees consist of the 
estimated sub

[[Page 231]]

sidy cost of the loans or guarantees at the time when the direct loans 
or guaranteed loans are disbursed. The cash flows to and from the public 
resulting from these loans and guarantees are not costs to the 
Government except for those costs already included in budget outlays. 
Therefore, they are non-budgetary in nature and are recorded as 
transactions of the non-budgetary financing account for each credit 
program. \16\ The net cash flows of the financing accounts, including 
intragovernmental transactions as well as transactions with the public, 
are called ``net financing disbursements.'' They are defined in the same 
way as the ``outlays'' of a budgetary account and therefore affect the 
ability to repay debt held by the public, or the requirements for 
borrowing from the public, in the same way as the surplus or deficit.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \16\ The Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (sec. 505(b)) requires that 
the financing accounts be non-budgetary. As explained in chapter 19, 
``Off-Budget Federal Entities and Non-Budgetary Activities,'' they are 
non-budgetary in concept because they do not measure cost. For 
additional discussion of credit reform, see chapter 24 of this volume, 
``Budget System and Concepts and Glossary,'' and the other references 
cited in chapter 19.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The net financing disbursements are partly due to intragovernmental 
transactions with budgetary accounts (the receipt of subsidy payment and 
the receipt or payment of interest), and partly due to transactions with 
the public (disbursement and repayment of loans, receipt of interest and 
fees, payment of default claims, and so forth). The intragovernmental 
transactions do not affect Federal borrowing from the public. (Although 
the surplus or deficit changes, the net financing disbursement changes 
in an equal amount with the opposite sign, so the effects cancel out on 
a net basis.) On the other hand, financing account disbursements to the 
public increase the requirement for borrowing from the public in the 
same way as an increase in budget outlays that are disbursed to the 
public in cash. Financing account receipts from the public can be used 
to finance the payment of the Government's obligations, and therefore 
reduce the requirement for Federal borrowing from the public in the same 
way as an increase in budget receipts.
  In the early years of credit reform, the financing accounts had little 
net effect on borrowing requirements, but their impact began to become 
large in the middle 1990s. By 2000 they required $17 billion of 
financing, and thus reduced the repayment of debt by this amount; they 
are estimated to reduce debt repayment by $40 billion in 2001, by $5 
billion in 2002, and by $15-18 billion each year subsequently. The 
expansion from the early years was mainly because of the growth of the 
direct student loan program; the wide swings between 2000 and 2002 are 
due partly to the direct student loan program but even more to 
reestimates and recoveries on the loans that financed the sale of the 
spectrum. Since direct loans require cash disbursements equal to the 
full amount of the loans when the loans are made, Federal borrowing 
requirements are initially increased. Later, when the loans are repaid, 
Federal borrowing requirements will decrease.
  Availability of redeemable debt.--A surplus can be used to reduce 
publicly held debt only to the extent that debt securities can be 
retired whether because they mature, the owners exercise a right to 
redeem them on demand (as in the case of savings bonds), the Treasury 
calls them (as it may do at stated dates for a few issues of bonds), or 
the Treasury buys them back. As discussed in an earlier section of this 
chapter, the budget estimates that by 2008 so much debt will have been 
repaid that the amount available for redemption in that year will be 
much less than the unified budget surplus. As the estimates in table 12-
3 show, the surplus in 2008 is $373 billion and other financing 
requirements due to the factors discussed above are $13 billion, so $359 
billion is available to repay debt held by the public. However, only 
$198 billion of debt can be redeemed. Therefore, the remaining $162 
billion of the surplus is accumulated as ``excess balances.'' (The term 
``excess'' means that the balances are in excess of the amounts held for 
operational and programmatic purposes.) In the following three years the 
amount of debt available to be redeemed diminishes, so despite growing 
surpluses the reduction in debt held by the public becomes progressively 
smaller.
  Debt held by Government accounts.--The amount of Federal debt issued 
to Government accounts depends largely on the surpluses of the trust 
funds, both on-budget and off-budget, which owned 94 percent of the 
total Federal debt held by Government accounts at the end of 2000. In 
2002, for example, the total trust fund surplus is estimated to be $257 
billion, and Government accounts are estimated to invest $266 billion in 
Federal securities. The difference is mainly because some revolving 
funds and special funds also hold Federal debt. In addition, the trust 
funds may change the amount of their cash assets not currently invested. 
The amounts of debt held in major accounts and the annual investments 
are shown in table 12-5.

                               Agency Debt

  Several Federal agencies, shown in table 12-4, sell debt securities to 
the public and at times in the past have sold securities to other 
Government accounts. During 2000, agencies repaid $0.2 billion to the 
public. Agency debt is only one percent of Federal debt held by the 
public. Agency borrowing and repayment of debt is estimated to remain 
small in 2001 and 2002.

  The reasons for issuing agency debt differ considerably from one 
agency to another. The predominate agency borrower is the Tennessee 
Valley Authority, which had borrowed $26.0 billion from the public as of 
the end of 2000, or 95 percent of the total for all agencies. TVA sells 
debt primarily to finance capital expenditures and to refund other 
issues of its existing debt.
  The Federal Housing Administration, on the other hand, has for many 
years issued both checks and debentures as means of paying claims to the 
public that arise from defaults on FHA-insured mortgages. Issuing 
debentures to pay the Government's bills is equivalent to borrowing from 
the public and then paying the bills by disbursing the cash borrowed, so 
the transaction

[[Page 232]]

                                             Table 12-4. AGENCY DEBT
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       Borrowing or repayment (-) of
                                                                                    debt                Debt end
                                                                     ---------------------------------  of 2001
                                                                         2000       2001       2002     estimate
                                                                        Actual    Estimate   Estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Borrowing from the public:
  Housing and Urban Development:
    Federal Housing Administration..................................        112        -84  .........        143

  Small Business Administration:
    Participation certificates: Section 505 development company.....  .........  .........  .........          7

  Architect of the Capitol..........................................         -2         -2         -3        168
   Farm Credit System Financial Assistance Corporation..............        -89  .........  .........        775
  Federal Communications Commission.................................        125  .........       -125  .........

  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation:
    FSLIC Resolution Fund...........................................  .........  .........  .........         63

  National Archives.................................................         -6         -6         -7        258
  Tennessee Valley Authority........................................       -390       -452       -208     25,327
                                                                     -------------------------------------------
Total, borrowing from the public....................................       -249       -545       -343     26,741
                                                                     ===========================================

Borrowing from other funds:
  Postal Service Fund \1\...........................................       -583        -51  .........  .........
                                                                     -------------------------------------------
    Total, borrowing from other funds...............................       -583        -51  .........  .........
                                                                     ===========================================
    Total, agency borrowing.........................................       -832       -596       -343     26,741
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The Postal Service debt held by other funds is the result of the FFB swapping Postal Service securities with
  the Civil Service Retirement and Disability trust fund during 1996 in exchange for Treasury securities having
  an equal present value. See the narrative for further explanation.

is recorded as being simultaneously an outlay and a borrowing. The 
debentures are therefore classified as agency debt. The borrowing by FHA 
and a few other agencies that have engaged in similar transactions is 
thus inherent in the way that their programs operate. \17\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \17\ The debt securities of the FSLIC Resolution fund were also issued 
as a means of paying specified bills. The budgetary treatment of these 
and similar securities is further explained in Special Analysis E of the 
1989 Budget, pp. E-25 to E-26; and Special Analysis E of the 1988 
Budget, pp. E-27 to E-28.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Some types of lease-purchase contracts are equivalent to direct 
Federal construction financed by Federal borrowing. A number of years 
ago, the Federal Government guaranteed the debt used to finance the 
construction of buildings for the National Archives and the Architect of 
the Capitol, and has subsequently exercised full control over the 
design, construction, and operation of the buildings. The construction 
expenditures and interest were therefore classified as Federal outlays, 
and the borrowing was classified as Federal agency borrowing from the 
public.
  The proper budgetary treatment of lease-purchases was further examined 
in connection with the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. Several changes 
were made. Among other decisions, it was determined that outlays for a 
lease-purchase in which the Government assumes substantial risk will be 
recorded in an amount equal to the asset cost over the period during 
which the contractor constructs, manufactures, or purchases the asset; 
if the asset already exists, the outlays will be recorded when the 
contract is signed. Agency borrowing will be recorded each year to the 
extent of these outlays. The agency debt will subsequently be redeemed 
over the lease payment period by a portion of the annual lease payments. 
This rule was effective starting in 1991.\18\ However, no lease-purchase 
agreements in which the Government assumes substantial risk have yet 
been authorized or are estimated for 2001 or 2002. The new budgetary 
treatment was reviewed in connection with the Balanced Budget Act of 
1997. Some clarifications were made, but there were no substantive 
changes from existing practice.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \18\ The rule was not only about lease-purchases in which the 
Government assumes substantial risk. For all lease-purchases and other 
capital leases, the rule required that budget authority be recorded up 
front for the present value of these payments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The amount of agency securities sold to the public has been reduced by 
borrowing from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). The FFB is an entity 
within the Treasury Department, one of whose purposes is to substitute 
Treasury borrowing for agency borrowing from the public. It has the 
authority to purchase agency debt and finance these purchases by 
borrowing from the Treasury. Agency borrowing from the FFB is not 
included in gross Federal debt. It would be double counting to add 
together (a) the agency borrowing from the FFB and (b) the Treasury 
borrowing from the public that was needed to provide the FFB with the 
funds to lend to the agencies.
  The debt of the agencies that borrow from the FFB is not subject to 
the statutory debt limitation. This enabled Treasury to raise additional 
cash to avoid default during the dispute with Congress over the budget 
and the debt limit five years ago. In February 1996, FFB swapped most of 
its holdings of TVA and Postal Service debt to the Civil Service 
Retirement and Disability trust fund (CSRDF) in exchange for Treasury 
securities. The TVA and most of the Postal Service securities acquired 
by CSRDF were redeemed before this year, but the remaining Postal 
Service securities

[[Page 233]]

are included in gross Federal debt shown in table 12-3, are included in 
table 12-4 as amounts that agencies borrowed from other funds, and are 
included in table 12-5 as agency debt held by Government accounts. 
Including agency debt held by Government accounts in gross Federal debt 
is not double counting, because Treasury did not have to borrow from the 
public in order for these accounts to buy the securities. Moreover, the 
TVA and Postal Service securities acquired by CSRDF replaced Treasury 
securities, which had been counted in gross Federal debt. It is assumed 
the remaining Postal Service securities held by CSRDF will be redeemed 
in 2001, at which time CSRDF will invest the principal repayment in 
Treasury securities. \19\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \19\ For further discussion of the debt limit dispute and the swap of 
securities between the FFB and CSRDF, see Analytical Perspectives, 
Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1998, pages 222 and 
225.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    Debt Held by Government Accounts

  Trust funds, and some public enterprise revolving funds and special 
funds, accumulate cash in excess of current requirements in order to 
meet future obligations. These cash surpluses are invested mostly in 
Treasury debt and, to a very small extent, in agency debt.
  Investment by trust funds and other Government accounts has risen 
greatly over the past two decades. It was $246 billion in 2000, as shown 
in table 12-5, and it is estimated to be $266 billion in 2002. The 
holdings of Federal securities by Government accounts are estimated to 
grow to $2.7 trillion billion by the end of 2002, or 48 percent of the 
gross Federal debt. This percentage is estimated to rise further in the 
following years as the budget surpluses reduce the debt held by the 
public and the trust funds continue to accumulate surpluses. By 2011, 
debt held by Government accounts is estimated to be 84 percent of the 
gross Federal debt.
  The large investment by Government accounts is concentrated among a 
few trust funds. The two social security trust funds--old-age and 
survivors insurance and disability insurance--have a large combined 
surplus and invest an increasing amount each year: a total of $486 
billion during 2000-02, which is 65 percent of the total estimated 
investment by Government accounts.
  In addition to these two funds, the largest investment is by the 
Federal employee retirement and disability trust funds. The principal 
trust fund for Federal civilian employees is the civil service 
retirement and disability trust fund, which accounts for 13 percent of 
the total investment by Government accounts during 2000-02. The military 
retirement trust fund accounts for 2 percent. Altogether, social 
security and these two retirement funds account for 80 percent of the 
investment by all Government accounts during this period. At the end of 
2002, they are estimated to own 76 percent of the total debt held by 
Government accounts. The largest other holdings are by the hospital 
insurance trust fund and the unemployment trust fund.
  Technical note on debt reclassifications.--A small part of gross 
Federal debt was reclassified in 1999 from debt held by Government 
accounts to debt held by the public as the result of reclassifying some 
investments from trust funds (within the budget) to deposit funds. 
Deposit funds are non-budgetary accounts that record amounts held by the 
Government temporarily until ownership is determined (such as earnest 
money paid by bidders for mineral leases) or held by the Government as 
an agent for others (such as State income taxes withheld from Federal 
employees' salaries and not yet paid to the States). Because the amounts 
are not owned by the Government, the transactions of deposit funds are 
not included in the unified budget receipts, outlays, and surplus or 
deficit, and the Treasury securities held by deposit funds have normally 
been included in debt held by the public rather than debt held by 
Government accounts. \20\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \20\ Deposit funds are further discussed in a section of chapter 24, 
``Budget System and Concepts and Glossary.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The reclassified funds were Indian tribal funds that are owned by 
Indian tribes and held and managed by the Government in a fiduciary 
capacity on the tribes' behalf. They were reclassified to deposit funds 
as of October 1, 1999, and their holdings of Treasury securities were 
accordingly reclassified from debt held by Government accounts to debt 
held by the public. The amount of the securities reclassified was $355 
million, which, as noted in footnote 5 to table 12-3, means that the 
decrease in publicly held debt in 2001 was $355 million less than the 
amount available to repay debt. The reason for the change in 
classification is explained in chapter 15, ``Trust Funds and Federal 
Funds,'' in Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the United States 
Government, Fiscal Year 2001 (pages 347-51).

[[Page 234]]

                                Table 12-5. DEBT HELD BY GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS \1\
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Investment or disinvestment (-)   Holdings
                                                                    ---------------------------------   end of
                            Description                                 2000       2001       2002       2002
                                                                       Actual    Estimate   Estimate   estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Investment in Treasury debt:
  Energy:
    Nuclear waste disposal fund \1\................................      1,301      1,034      1,140      11,409
    Uranium enrichment decontamination fund........................        509        418        491       3,072
  Health and Human Services:
    Federal hospital insurance trust fund..........................     15,092     28,319     33,692     230,870
    Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund.............     18,547     -5,601       -202      39,272
    Vaccine injury compensation trust fund.........................        146        103        113       1,793
  Housing and Urban Development:
    Federal Housing Administration mutual mortgage fund............      2,318        500      4,000      21,760
    Other HUD......................................................        205        420        439       7,055
  Interior: Abandoned Mine Reclamation fund........................         82        -22        139       1,964
  Labor:
    Unemployment trust fund........................................      9,042      6,462      6,668      99,529
    Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation...........................      1,204      1,109      1,603      13,212
  State: Foreign Service retirement and disability trust fund......        527        533        543      11,734
  Transportation:
    Highway trust fund.............................................      2,940      1,601        103      32,727
    Airport and airway trust fund..................................        683      2,536      1,066      16,699
    Oil spill liability trust fund.................................        136        -92       -142         965
    Aquatic resources trust fund...................................         43         -8         96       1,280
  Treasury: Exchange stabilization fund............................     -4,204       -998  .........      10,031
  Veterans Affairs:
    National service life insurance trust fund.....................       -149       -243       -327      11,234
    Other trust funds..............................................         44         24         30       1,894
    Federal funds..................................................         -8        -15        -18         510
  Defense-Civil:
    Military retirement trust fund.................................      8,074      2,640      6,190     158,178
    Harbor maintenance trust fund..................................         67  .........        162       1,833
  Environmental Protection Agency:
    Hazardous substance trust fund.................................       -467       -475       -430       3,221
    Leaking underground storage tank trust fund....................        211        176        213       2,058
  International Assistance Programs:
    Overseas Private Investment Corporation........................         43         46        132       3,305
  Office of Personnel Management:
    Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund \3\.........     31,347     31,198     31,184     574,368
    Employees life insurance fund..................................      1,617      1,326      1,297      24,995
    Employees health benefits fund.................................        154        759      1,171       7,919
  Social Security Administration:
    Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund \2\.........    131,293    137,096    151,417   1,182,032
    Federal disability insurance trust fund \2\....................     21,041     21,680     23,134     158,521
  Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation:
    Farm Credit Insurance Fund.....................................        145         96         94       1,711
  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation:
    Bank Insurance fund............................................        967       -302        290      29,314
    FSLIC Resolution fund..........................................        204        242        220       2,970
    Savings Association Insurance fund.............................        603        162         78      10,987
  National Credit Union Administration: Share insurance fund.......        218        283        271       4,900
  Postal Service fund \2\..........................................        277  .........  .........       1,086
  Railroad Retirement Board trust funds \1\........................      1,235      1,217      1,158      20,877
  Other Federal funds..............................................      1,515         20        383       7,205
  Other trust funds................................................       -262       -307       -302       6,618
  Unrealized discount \1\..........................................       -422  .........  .........      -2,230
                                                                    --------------------------------------------
      Total, investment in Treasury debt \1\.......................    246,319    231,937    266,096   2,716,878
                                                                    ============================================
Investment in agency debt:
  Office of Personnel Management:
    Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund \3\.........       -583        -51  .........  ..........
                                                                    --------------------------------------------
Total, investment in agency debt...................................       -583        -51  .........  ..........
                                                                    ============================================
Total, investment in Federal debt \1\..............................    245,736    231,886    266,096   2,716,878
                                                                    ============================================

[[Page 235]]

                             MEMORANDUM

Investment by Federal funds (on-budget)............................      5,102      2,994      9,262     129,405
Investment by Federal funds (off-budget)...........................        277  .........  .........       1,086
Investment by trust funds (on-budget)..............................     88,444     70,116     82,283   1,248,064
Investment by trust funds (off-budget).............................    152,334    158,776    174,551   1,340,553
Unrealized discount \1\............................................       -422  .........  .........      -2,230
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Debt held by Government accounts is measured at face value except for the Treasury zero-coupon bonds held by
  the Nuclear Waste Disposal fund and the Railroad Retirement Board (Rail Industry Pension Fund), which are
  recorded at market or redemption price; and the unrealized discount on Government account series, which is not
  distributed by account. Changes are not estimated in the unrealized discount. If recorded at face value, the
  debt held by the Nuclear Waste Disposal fund would be $8.3 billion higher than recorded in this table at the
  end of 2000 and the debt held by the Railroad Retirement Board would be $6.3 billion higher.
\2\ Off-budget Federal entity.
\3\ The FFB swapped Treasury securities with the Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund (CSRDF) in
  1996 in exchange for agency securities having an equal present value. The result is shown in this table as
  agency debt held by CSRDF.

  Technical note on measurement.--The Treasury securities held by 
Government accounts consist almost entirely of the Government account 
series. Most were issued at par value (face value), and the securities 
issued at a discount or premium were traditionally recorded at par in 
the OMB and Treasury reports on Federal debt. However, there are two 
kinds of exceptions. First, in 1991, Treasury began to issue zero-coupon 
bonds to a very few Government accounts. Because the purchase price is a 
small fraction of par value and the amounts are large, the holdings are 
recorded in table 12-5 at purchase price plus amortized discount. The 
only two Government accounts that currently hold zero-coupon bonds are 
the Nuclear Waste Disposal fund in the Department of Energy and the Rail 
Industry Pension fund under the Railroad Retirement Board. The total 
unamortized discount of these zero-coupon bonds was -$14.6 billion at 
the end of 2000.
  Second, in September 1993 Treasury began to subtract the unrealized 
discount on other Government account series securities in calculating 
``net federal securities held as investments of government accounts.'' 
Unlike the discount recorded for zero-coupon bonds or for any debt held 
by the public, this discount is the amount at the time of issue and is 
not amortized over the term of the security. In table 12-5 it is shown 
as a separate item at the end of the table and not distributed by 
account. The amount was -$2.2 billion at the end of 2000.

                       Limitations on Federal Debt

  Definition of debt subject to limit.--Statutory limitations have 
usually been placed on Federal debt. Until World War I, the Congress 
ordinarily authorized a specific amount of debt for each separate issue. 
Beginning with the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917, however, the nature 
of the limitation was modified in several steps until it developed into 
a ceiling on the total amount of most Federal debt outstanding. This 
last type of limitation has been in effect since 1941. The limit 
currently applies to most debt issued by the Treasury since September 
1917, whether held by the public or by Government accounts; and other 
debt issued by Federal agencies that, according to explicit statute, is 
guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States Government.
  The middle part of Table 12-3 compares total Treasury debt with the 
amount of Federal debt that is subject to the limit. Most of the 
Treasury debt not subject to limit was issued by the FFB (Federal 
Financing Bank). The FFB is authorized to have outstanding up to $15 
billion of publicly issued debt, and this amount was issued several 
years ago to the Civil Service Retirement and Disability trust fund. The 
remaining Treasury debt not subject to limit consists almost entirely of 
silver certificates and other currencies no longer being issued.
  The sole type of agency debt currently subject to the general limit is 
the debentures issued by the Federal Housing Administration, which were 
only $227 million at the end of 2000. Some of the other agency debt, 
however, is subject to its own statutory limit. For example, the 
Tennessee Valley Authority is limited to $30 billion of securities 
outstanding.
  The comparison between Treasury debt and debt subject to limit also 
includes an adjustment for measurement differences in the treatment of 
discounts and premiums. As explained elsewhere in this chapter, debt 
securities may be sold at a discount or premium, and the measurement of 
debt may take this into account rather than recording the face value of 
the securities. However, the measurement differs between gross Federal 
debt (and its components) and the statutory definition of debt subject 
to limit. An adjustment is needed to derive debt subject to limit (as 
defined by law) from Treasury debt, and this adjustment is defined in 
footnote 8 to table 12-3. The amount is relatively small: $5.6 billion 
at the end of 2000 compared to the total discount (less premium) of 
$72.8 billion on all Treasury securities.
  Changes in the debt limit.--The statutory debt limit has frequently 
been changed. Since 1960, Congress has passed 68 separate acts to raise 
the limit, extend the duration of a temporary increase, or revise

[[Page 236]]

the definition. \21\ Major increases in the debt limit were enacted as 
part of the deficit reduction packages in the Omnibus Budget 
Reconciliation Acts of 1990 and 1993. Both changes in law were preceded 
by one or more temporary increases in the limit before agreement was 
reached on the debt and the deficit reduction measures together. Both 
increases in the debt limit were large enough to last over two years 
without a further change in law, the longest times without an increase 
since the period from 1946 to 1954.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \21\ The Acts and the statutory limits since 1940 are enumerated in 
Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, table 7.3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The debt again approached the limit in 1995, and the limit again 
became part of the larger issue of deficit reduction. During an extended 
period of dispute between the President and the Congress, the Treasury 
Department took a number of administrative actions to keep within the 
limit and the Congress passed two acts providing temporary exemptions 
from the limit. In March 1996, although agreement had not been reached 
on deficit reduction, Congress passed an act that increased the debt 
limit from $4,900 billion to $5,500 billion.

  During 1997, unlike 1996, the President and the Congress reached 
agreement on a plan to balance the budget. This included a sufficient 
increase in the debt limit to accommodate Government finances for longer 
than possible under the limit enacted in the previous year, even though 
the amount of debt at that time was considerably under the limit. As a 
result, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, which the President signed into 
law on August 5, 1997, increased the debt limit to $5,950 billion. 
According to the estimates in tables 12-3 and 12-6, the debt limit will 
not be reached until 2008.
  Federal funds financing and the change in debt subject to limit.--The 
change in debt held by the public, as shown in table 12-3, is determined 
primarily by the total Government deficit or surplus. The debt

                                                       Table 12-6.  FEDERAL FUNDS FINANCING AND CHANGE IN DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT
                                                                                    (In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                            Estimate
                          Description                            2000 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Actual               2001     2002     2003     2004     2005     2006     2007     2008     2009     2010     2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Federal funds surplus or deficit (-)...........................                   2                 49      -25      -45      -44      -57      -44      -27      -10       17       40       86
Means of financing other then borrowing:
  Premiums paid (-) on buybacks of Treasury securities \1\.....                  -6                -10  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......
  Change in: \2\
    Treasury operating cash balances...........................                   4                  3  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......
    Checks outstanding, deposit funds, etc. \3\................                  -3                  2       -1  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......
  Seignorage on coins..........................................                   2                  2        2        2        2        2        2        2        2        2        2        2
  Less: Net financing disbursements
    Direct loan financing accounts.............................                 -22                -39       -4      -17      -18      -17      -16      -16      -16      -16      -16      -15
    Guaranteed loan financing accounts.........................                   4                 -1       -1        1       -*       -*        1        1        1        1        1        1
                                                                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, means of financing other than borrowing...........                 -20                -42       -4      -15      -16      -15      -14      -13      -13      -13      -13      -13
                                                                ================================================================================================================================
Decrease or increase (-) in Federal debt held by Federal funds.                  -5                 -3       -9  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......
Increase or decrease (-) in Federal debt not subject to limit..                  -1                 -1       -*       -1       -1       -1       -1       -1       -*       -*       -*       -*
                                                                ================================================================================================================================
    Total, requirement for Federal funds borrowing subject to                   -24                  4      -39      -61      -61      -73      -58      -42      -24        4       27       73
     debt limit................................................
                                                                ================================================================================================================================
Increase in excess balances \4\................................  ............................  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......      162      281      381      463
Adjustment for change in discount and premium \5\..............                  -*            .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......
Increase in debt subject to limit..............................                  24                 -4       39       61       61       73       58       42      185      277      355      390

                            ADDENDUM

Debt subject to statutory limit \6\............................               5,592              5,588    5,627    5,688    5,749    5,822    5,881    5,922    6,108    6,385    6,740    7,130
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500 million or less
\1\ This table includes estimates for Treasury buybacks of outstanding securities only through FY 2001. These estimates assume the Treasury will buy back $35 billion (face value) of securities
  in FY 2001. The premium paid on buybacks are based on experience to date and the interest rates in the economic assumptions.
\2\ A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balances (which is an asset) would be a means of financing the deficit and therefore has a positive sign An Increase in checks outstanding or
  deposit fund balances (which are liabilities) would also be a means of financing the deficit and would therefore also have a positive sign.
\3\ Besides checks outstanding and deposit funds, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability accounts, allocations of special drawing rights, and as an offset,
  cash and monetary assets other than the Treasury operating cash balance, miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on the sale of gold.
\4\ The amount of the unified budget surplus that is available to repay debt held by the public is estimated to be more than the amount of debt that is available to be redeemed in 2008 and
  subsequent years The difference is assumed to be held as ``excess balances''. (``Excess'' means in excess of the amounts held for operational and programmatic purposes).
\5\ Consists of increase in the amount of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government
  account series securities.
\6\ The statutory debt limit is $5,950 billion.

[[Page 237]]

subject to limit, however, includes not only debt held by the public but 
also debt held by Government accounts. The change in debt subject to 
limit is therefore determined both by the factors that determine the 
total Government deficit or surplus and by the factors that determine 
the change in debt held by Government accounts. During 2008-11, the 
change in debt held by the public and the change in debt subject to 
limit are both affected by the limited amount of debt that is available 
to be redeemed.
  The budget is composed of two groups of funds, Federal funds and trust 
funds. The Federal funds, in the main, are derived from tax receipts and 
borrowing and are used for the general purposes of the Government. The 
trust funds, on the other hand, are financed by taxes or other 
collections earmarked by law for specified purposes, such as paying 
social security benefits or making grants to State governments for 
highway construction. \22\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \22\ For further discussion of the trust funds and Federal funds 
groups, see chapter 15, ``Trust Funds and Federal Funds.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  A Federal funds deficit must generally be financed by borrowing, 
either by selling securities to the public or by issuing securities to 
Government accounts that are not within the Federal funds group. Federal 
funds borrowing consists almost entirely of the Treasury issuing 
securities that are subject to the statutory debt limit. Trust fund 
surpluses are almost entirely invested in these securities, and trust 
funds hold most of the debt held by Government accounts. Very little 
debt subject to statutory limit is issued for other reasons. Under 
ordinary circumstances, the change in debt subject to limit is therefore 
determined primarily by the Federal funds deficit, which is equal to the 
difference between the total Government surplus and the trust fund 
surplus. The only major exception, as explained below, is when excess 
balances are accumulated because of the limited amount of debt available 
to be redeemed.
  Table 12-6 derives the change in debt subject to limit. In 2002 the 
Federal funds deficit is estimated to be $25 billion, and other factors 
increase the requirement to borrow subject to limit by $14 billion. The 
largest of these other factors ($9 billion) is investment in Treasury 
securities by revolving funds and special funds in the Federal funds 
group. The next largest factor ($4 billion) is the net financing 
disbursements of the direct loan financing accounts. As explained in an 
earlier section, they are excluded from the budget by law because they 
do not represent a cost to the Government, but they have to be financed 
and in most years they are sizable. As a net result of all these 
factors, debt subject to limit is estimated to increase by $39 billion, 
in contrast to a $227 billion decrease in debt held by the public.
  The change in debt subject to limit during 2008-11 is determined not 
only by the factors above but also by the availability of publicly held 
debt that can be redeemed. Because the unified budget surplus is more 
than the estimate of the debt that can be redeemed, as explained 
previously, additional amounts of publicly held debt remain outstanding 
beyond the amounts needed for the Government's financing. The difference 
is accumulated as excess balances. \23\ The additional amount of 
publicly held debt is subject to the limit. Therefore, because publicly 
held debt is higher than it would have been if the unified budget 
surplus could have been fully used to reduce debt, the debt subject to 
limit is also higher. This effect is shown in table 12-6 by the line 
item ``increase in excess balances,'' which raises the amount of debt 
subject to statutory limit.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \23\ As defined previously, the term ``excess'' means that the 
balances are in excess of the amounts held for operational and 
programmatic purposes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The debt subject to limit increased by a small amount in 2000. It is 
estimated to decrease by a very small amount in 2001 and then increase 
by small amounts each year during 2002-07. During 2000, the Federal 
funds had a surplus, but the surplus was small and was outweighed by the 
other factors that determine debt subject to limit; during 2002-07, the 
Federal funds have a deficit. The largest other factor during most of 
these years is the net financing disbursements of the direct loan 
financing accounts. As a result, while debt held by the public decreases 
by $2,031 billion during 2000-07, debt subject to limit increases by 
$355 billion.
  During 2008-11 the Federal funds have surpluses in three of the four 
years. However, due to the accumulation of excess balances ($1,287 
billion during the four years), debt subject to limit increases by a 
large amount, $1,208 billion. Debt held by the public decreases by the 
amount of the redeemable debt, which is $444 billion over these years.

                     Debt Held by Foreign Residents

  During most of American history, the Federal debt was held almost 
entirely by individuals and institutions within the United States. In 
the late 1960s, as shown in table 12-7, foreign holdings were just over 
$10.0 billion, less than 5 percent of the total Federal debt held by the 
public.

[[Page 238]]

                                                      Table 12-7.  FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF FEDERAL DEBT
                                                              (Dollar amounts in billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Debt held by the public         Borrowing from the       Interest on debt held by the
                                                          ----------------------------------          public                        public
                       Fiscal year                                                          ------------------------------------------------------------
                                                            Total   Foreign \1\  Percentage                                                   Percentage
                                                                                   foreign   Total \2\   Foreign \1\  Total \3\  Foreign \4\    foreign
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1965.....................................................    260.8       12.3          4.7         3.9         0.3         9.6         0.5          4.9
1966.....................................................    263.7       11.6          4.4         2.9        -0.7        10.1         0.5          5.1
1967.....................................................    266.6       11.4          4.3         2.9        -0.2        11.1         0.6          5.1
1968.....................................................    289.5       10.7          3.7        22.9        -0.7        11.9         0.7          5.6
1969.....................................................    278.1       10.3          3.7       -11.4        -0.4        13.5         0.7          5.3

1970.....................................................    283.2       14.0          5.0         5.1         3.8        15.4         0.8          5.5
1971.....................................................    303.0       31.8         10.5        19.8        17.8        16.2         1.3          7.9
1972.....................................................    322.4       49.2         15.2        19.3        17.3        16.8         2.4         14.2
1973.....................................................    340.9       59.4         17.4        18.5        10.3        18.7         3.2         17.2
1974.....................................................    343.7       56.8         16.5         2.8        -2.6        22.7         4.1         17.9

1975.....................................................    394.7       66.0         16.7        51.0         9.2        25.0         4.5         18.1
1976.....................................................    477.4       69.8         14.6        82.7         3.8        29.3         4.4         15.1
TQ.......................................................    495.5       74.6         15.1        18.1         4.9         7.8         1.2         14.9
1977.....................................................    549.1       95.5         17.4        53.6        20.9        33.8         5.1         15.0
1978.....................................................    607.1      121.0         19.9        58.0        25.4        40.2         7.9         19.5
1979 \5\.................................................    640.3      120.3         18.8        33.2        -0.7        49.9        10.7         21.5

1980.....................................................    711.9      121.7         17.1        71.6         1.4        62.8        12.0         19.1
1981.....................................................    789.4      130.7         16.6        77.5         9.0        81.7        16.4         20.1
1982.....................................................    924.6      140.6         15.2       135.2         9.9       101.2        18.7         18.5
1983.....................................................  1,137.3      160.1         14.1       212.7        19.5       111.6        19.2         17.2
1984.....................................................  1,307.0      175.5         13.4       169.7        15.4       133.5        20.3         15.2

1985 \5\.................................................  1,507.4      222.9         14.8       200.3        47.4       152.9        23.0         15.1
1986.....................................................  1,740.8      265.5         15.3       233.4        42.7       159.3        24.2         15.2
1987.....................................................  1,889.9      279.5         14.8       149.2        14.0       160.4        25.7         16.0
1988.....................................................  2,051.8      345.9         16.9       161.9        66.4       172.3        29.9         17.4
1989.....................................................  2,191.0      394.9         18.0       139.1        49.0       189.0        37.1         19.6

1990 \5\.................................................  2,411.8      440.3         18.3       220.9        45.4       202.4        40.2         19.9
1991.....................................................  2,689.3      477.3         17.7       277.5        37.0       214.8        41.3         19.2
1992.....................................................  3,000.1      535.2         17.8       310.8        57.9       214.5        39.3         18.3
1993.....................................................  3,248.8      591.3         18.2       248.7        56.1       210.2        39.0         18.6
1994.....................................................  3,433.4      655.8         19.1       184.7        64.5       210.6        41.9         19.9

1995 \5\.................................................  3,604.8      800.4         22.2       171.3       144.6       239.2        54.5         22.8
1996.....................................................  3,734.5      978.1         26.2       129.7       177.7       246.6        63.7         25.8
1997.....................................................  3,772.8    1,218.2         32.3        38.3       240.0       250.8        84.2         33.6
1998.....................................................  3,721.6    1,216.9         32.7       -51.2        -1.2       250.0        91.3         36.5
1999 \5\.................................................  3,632.9    1,281.4         35.3       -88.7        64.5       234.9        92.7         39.5
2000.....................................................  3,410.1    1,225.2         35.9      -222.8       -56.2       233.1       105.5         45.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Estimated by Treasury Department. These estimates exclude agency debt, the holdings of which are believed to be small. The data on foreign holdings
  are recorded by methods that are not fully comparable with the data on debt held by the public. Projections of foreign holdings are not available.
\2\ Borrowing from the public is defined as equal to the change in debt held by the public from the beginning of the year to the end, except to the
  extent that the amount of debt is changed by reclassification.
\3\ Estimated as interest on Treasury debt securities less ``interest received by trust funds'' (subfuction 901 less subfunction 902 and 903). Does not
  include the comparatively small amount of interest on agency debt or the offsets for interest on Treasury debt received by other Government accounts
  (revolving funds and special funds).
\4\ Estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. These estimates include small amounts of interest from other sources,
  including the debt of Government-sponsored enterprises, which are not part of the Federal Government.
\4\ Benchmark revisions reduced the estimated foreign holdings of the Federal debt as of December 1978; increase the estimated foreign holdings as of
  December 1984 and December 1989; and reduced the estimated holdings as of December 1994. As a result, the data on foreign holdings in different time
  periods are not strictly comparable, and the ``borrowing'' from foreign residents in 1979, 1985, 1989, and 1995 reflects the benchmark revision as
  well as the net purchase of Federal debt securities. A conceptual revision likewise increased the estimated foreign holdings as of 1999, and the
  ``borrowing'' from foreign residents in 1999 reflects this revision as well as the net purchases of Federal debt securities.

  Foreign holdings began to grow significantly starting in 1970. This 
increase has been almost entirely due to decisions by foreign 
governments, corporations, and individuals, rather than the direct 
marketing of these securities to foreign residents. At the end of fiscal 
year 2000 foreign holdings of Treasury debt were $1,225 billion, which 
was 36 percent of the total debt held by the public. \24\ Foreign 
central banks owned 48 percent of the Federal debt held by foreign 
residents; private investors owned nearly all the rest. All the Federal 
debt held by foreign residents is denominated in dollars.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \24\ The amounts of debt reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 
Department of Commerce, are different, but similar in size, due to a 
different method of valuing the securities.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Although the amount of Federal debt held by foreign residents grew 
greatly over this period, the proportion they own, after growing 
abruptly in the very early 1970s, did not change much again until the 
mid-1990s. During 1995-97, however, foreign holdings increased on 
average by around $200 billion each year, considerably more than total 
Federal borrowing from the pub

[[Page 239]]

lic. \25\ As a result, the Federal debt held by individuals and 
institutions within the United States decreased in absolute amount 
during those years, and the percentage of Federal debt held by foreign 
residents grew from 19 percent at the end of 1994 to 32 percent at the 
end of 1997. The rapid growth of foreign debt holdings ceased in 1998 
and turned into a slight decline, one of the rare years with a decrease 
since 1970. In 1999, the debt held by foreigners increased considerably 
again, but in 2000 it fell. Total debt held by the public decreased in 
all three years, and in 1998 and 2000 it deceased at a faster rate than 
the decline in foreign holdings. As a result, the percentage held by 
foreigners continued to rise.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \25\ Table 12-7 shows foreign holdings increasing by only $144.6 
billion in 1995. However, as explained in footnote 5 to that table, a 
benchmark revision reduced the estimated holdings as of December 1994 
(by $47.9 billion). Because debt estimates were not revised 
retroactively, the increase in 1995 was more than the table shows. 
Before the benchmark revision, the increase was estimated to be $192.6 
billion.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Foreign holdings of Federal debt are a little less than one-fifth of 
the foreign-owned assets in the United States. The foreign purchases of 
Federal debt securities do not measure the full impact of the capital 
inflow from abroad on the market for Federal debt securities. The 
capital inflow supplies additional funds to the credit market generally, 
and thus affects the market for Federal debt. For example, the capital 
inflow includes deposits in U.S. financial intermediaries that 
themselves buy Federal debt.

  Federal, Federally Guaranteed, and Other Federally Assisted Borrowing

  The effect of the Government on borrowing in the credit market arises 
not only from its own borrowing to finance Federal operations but also 
from its assistance to certain borrowing by the public. The Government 
guarantees borrowing by private and other non-Federal lenders, which is 
another term for guaranteed lending. In addition to its guarantees, it 
has established private corporations called ``Government-sponsored 
enterprises,'' or GSEs, to provide financial intermediation for 
specified public purposes; it exempts the interest on most State and 
local government debt from income tax; and it insures the deposits of 
banks and thrift institutions, which themselves make loans.
  Federal credit programs and other forms of assistance are discussed in 
chapter 8, ``Credit and Insurance.'' Detailed data are presented in 
tables at the end of that chapter. Tables 8-11 and 8-12 in chapter 8 
summarize GSE borrowing and lending.