[Analytical Perspectives]
[Special Analyses and Presentations]
[11. Strengthening Federal Statistics]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]
11. STRENGTHENING FEDERAL STATISTICS
Our economy's complexity, growth, and rapid structural changes require
that public and private leaders have unbiased, relevant information on
which to base their decisions. Data on real Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the trade deficit, for
example, have a major impact on government spending, budget projections,
and the allocation of Federal funds. They also are critical inputs to
monetary, fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy. Economic data, such as
measures of price change, have as well a significant influence on
interest rates and cost-of-living adjustments that affect every American
who runs a business, saves for retirement, or obtains a mortgage.
Similarly, timely, comparable data on the characteristics of the U.S.
population are essential to monitor societal changes. Of great import in
2002 will be the continuing delivery of Census 2000 data products used
to allocate locally each year nearly $200 billion in Federal funds. In
recognition of its significance and in response to concerns about early
planning and the quality of long-form data, the Census Bureau proposes
to streamline the very complex decennial census process and to actively
seek opportunities to innovate. The plan for the next decade is to
completely reengineer the 2010 Census as part of a strategy to develop a
more systematic, integrated, building-block approach for decennial and
demographic data collection. This approach has three major components:
a simplified 2010 Census and more timely data based on
eliminating the long form through implementation of the
American Community Survey (ACS);
a single, continuously updated address universe and
associated geographical products for use in all decennial and
demographic programs; and
a well-tested and planned 2010 Census design produced
through systematic development prior to mid-decade operational
testing.
The American Community Survey is a revolutionary, structural
initiative of the statistical system that will provide community
profiles similar to those from the decennial census on a far more
current basis. For geographic areas with populations greater than
65,000, these profiles will be produced every year. For smaller areas,
the ACS will accumulate or average data over several years to obtain
annual estimates similar in quality and reliability to those currently
available only once each decade. Thus, every jurisdiction ultimately
will have annual information that illuminates change over time. (The
official counts of the population will continue to come from the
decennial census and the intercensal estimates program.) Because the
American Community Survey will provide essentially the same information
as the current decennial census long form, the Census Bureau plans to
eliminate the long form in the 2010 Census, thereby focusing that effort
on counting the population using only the short form. In 2002, Phase II
of developing the ACS occurs, in which data from the 1999-2001 ACS will
be compared with Census 2000 results.
Under the aegis of the congressionally-mandated Interagency Council on
Statistical Policy (ICSP), the principal statistical agencies continue
to extend their collaborative endeavors to improve the overall
performance and efficiency of the Federal statistical system. For
example, the ICSP is supporting FedStats (www.fedstats.gov), the ``one-
stop shopping'' Internet site for Federal statistics that permits easy
access via an initial point of entry to the wide array of statistical
information available to the public from more than 100 Federal agencies.
In 2000, FedStats nearly doubled (from 40 to 77) the number of agencies
whose data series are indexed there. In 2001, the FedStats team updated
its home page based on recommendations from a usability work group, and
enhanced its MapStats section to provide an interactive map-based
application to access a variety of data at the State, county,
congressional district, and Federal judicial district levels.
The statistical system is also working effectively to enhance the
quality of data the agencies produce. For example, statistical agencies
have developed proposed data sharing legislation that would permit
limited sharing of confidential data among selected agencies solely for
statistical purposes. Enactment of this legislation, and of a companion
Treasury Department proposal that would make complementary changes to
provisions set forth in the ``Statistical Use'' section of the Internal
Revenue Code, will create a framework for statistical agencies to
compare and improve the quality of their data.
Despite these accomplishments, rapid changes in our economy and
society, and funding levels that challenge statistical agencies to keep
pace with them, can threaten the relevance, accuracy, and timeliness of
our Nation's key statistics. Any growing inability of our statistical
system to mirror accurately our economy and society, including the
unprecedented growth of electronic commerce, could undermine core
government activities, such as the accurate allocation of scarce Federal
funds. Fortunately, the most serious shortcomings of our statistical
infrastructure would be substantially mitigated by five programs
supported in the Administration's budget as well as a legislative
initiative. In particular, these actions would:
develop an integrated statistical base for analysis of the
effects of E-business across our Nation's products and
industries, including changes in the structure of investment,
pricing, and distribution
[[Page 220]]
practices (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census);
support the tabulation, analysis, and dissemination of
Census 2000 data in order to reap the benefits of Census 2000
investments (Bureau of the Census);
support early planning for the 2010 Census predicated on a
fundamental reengineering of the census process (Bureau of the
Census);
continue implementation of the American Community Survey
program to produce far more timely data for States and local
areas that will be used for various purposes, including the
distribution of nearly $200 billion in Federal funds annually
(Bureau of the Census);
improve coverage of the construction and service sectors in
the Producer Price Index (which may also produce
methodological techniques that further improve the Consumer
Price Index) and enhance coverage of the service sector in BLS
productivity estimates (Bureau of Labor Statistics); and
provide new statutory authority for the limited sharing of
data among designated Federal agencies solely for statistical
purposes. The proposed changes would permit these statistical
agencies to manage information in many important respects as
if they were part of a single agency, thereby increasing the
accuracy of statistical estimates and the efficiency of
Federal data collection.
Taken together, statistics produced by the Federal Government on
demographic, economic, and social conditions and trends are essential to
inform decisions that are made by virtually every organization and
household in our Nation. The U.S. Federal statistical system comprises
some 70 agencies that collect, analyze, and disseminate information for
use by governments, businesses, researchers, and the public.
Approximately one third of the funding for the statistical system
provides resources for ten agencies that have statistical activities as
their principal mission. (Please see Table 11-1.) The remaining funding
is spread among some sixty agencies that carry out statistical
activities in conjunction with other missions such as providing services
or enforcing regulations. The following highlights elaborate on the
Administration's proposals to strengthen the programs of the principal
Federal statistical agencies.
HIGHLIGHTS OF 2002 PROGRAM PROPOSALS FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES
Bureau of Economic Analysis: Funding is requested to address critical
gaps in coverage and the growing measurement error in Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) and the national income accounts. BEA will develop new
data sources and methods to improve measurement of the services
industry, including telecommunications and other E-business related
services; savings, investment and household wealth; international trade
and finance; and derivative instruments, and will incorporate this
information into the economic accounts. BEA will work with other
statistical agencies to: (1) ensure that E-business, including related
investment, is captured in estimates of GDP and other economic accounts
data, and (2) develop estimates of the impact of E-business across
products and industries, including investment, prices, and distribution.
In addition, BEA will upgrade its computer and data handling
capabilities to protect and disseminate its data and meet the demands of
these improved measures of economic performance. Without such
improvements, timely release of the GDP and related measures would be
put at risk.
Bureau of Justice Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1) design and
field a statistical series on the nature and consequences of routine
traffic stops based on administrative data from law enforcement agencies
and supplemental data from the National Crime Victimization Survey
(NCVS) to learn about the public's experience relating to traffic stops;
(2) implement a voluntary reporting system of deaths of persons while in
law enforcement custody as required by the Deaths in Custody Act of 2000
that will include reports, submitted quarterly by States, on the death
of any person who is in the process of arrest, is en route to be
incarcerated, or is incarcerated at a municipal or county jail, State
prison, or other local or State correctional facility; (3) initiate the
conversion of the NCVS interviewing and data collection activities from
primarily a paper and pencil operation to a fully computerized system;
(4) develop a methodology and initiate preliminary testing of potential
questions to be used to enhance the NCVS to measure victimization of the
disabled population in the United States as required by the Crime
Victims with Disabilities Awareness Act; and (5) continue the Cybercrime
Statistical Program, initiated in 2001, designed to measure changes in
the incidence, magnitude, and consequences of electronic crime.
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1) begin a new
effort to fundamentally change the way the Consumer Price Index is
revised and updated by instituting a process for continuous improvement
in place of the periodic major revisions that were undertaken about
every ten years; (2) enhance BLS' data security program and start
replacing much of its decade-old local area network (LAN) infrastructure
with a more current and capable LAN system through a central Department
of Labor appropriation; (3) proceed with development of a new survey to
measure how Americans spend their time in order to improve assessments
of national well-being, and produce diary estimates of time spent in
market work to evaluate existing estimates of work hours; (4) continue
work to extend Producer Price Index coverage for the first time to the
construction sector of the U.S. economy and to enhance service sector
coverage; (5) proceed with development of new industry labor and
multifactor productivity series for the service-producing sector; and
(6) continue
[[Page 221]]
to improve the statistical quality of local area unemployment
statistics.
Bureau of the Census: Funding is requested for Census 2000, Census
2010 Planning, and for the Census Bureau's economic and demographic
programs. For Census 2000, funding is requested to: (1) continue to
disseminate data products; (2) manage remaining activities to complete
Census 2000; (3) ensure that the contracts for data capture are closed
out efficiently; (4) respond to concerns from local and tribal
governments about the accuracy of the census counts via the Count
Question Resolution program; (5) compare data from the American
Community Survey (ACS) with Census 2000 results; and (6) continue
evaluating census operations. For the 2010 Census, funding is requested
to provide for adequate testing and simplified data collection by: (1)
establishing an early design and testing infrastructure to allow
complete testing of all major elements of the 2010 Census design; (2)
developing the Long Form Transitional Database to enable reengineering
of the 2010 Census through use of the ACS to collect long form data; and
(3) replacing the MAF/TIGER system with one that uses Global Positioning
System technology and satellite mapping imagery to update and improve
the Census 2000 address information. For Census Bureau economic and
demographic programs, funding is requested to: (1) maintain the program
to measure E-business; (2) redesign samples for household surveys based
on Census 2000 data; and (3) begin implementation of the 2002 Economic
Censuses and Census of Governments.
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1)
implement the Safety Data Action Plan, a series of projects to improve
the quality, comparability, and timeliness of transportation safety data
and to better understand accident causation; (2) improve the collection
and analysis of aviation data, particularly data related to flight delay
and airline competition; (3) continue developing the Intermodal
Transportation Data Base, a web-based portal that provides one-stop
shopping for transportation data; (4) expand the National Transportation
Library, which provides access to the Nation's transportation research
and planning literature via the Internet; (5) collect data on travel
behavior, freight movement, customer satisfaction, and motor carrier
operations; (6) strengthen transportation data analysis and study
emerging trends; (7) improve statistical tools for geo-spatial data
analyses and promote their use in transportation applications; (8)
ensure the reliability of DOT's GPRA performance measurement data and
develop measures for DOT's new strategic goals; and (9) publish the
monthly Transportation Indicators report, the congressionally-mandated
Transportation Statistics Annual Report, and its companion, the National
Transportation Statistics report.
Economic Research Service: Funding is requested to: (1) provide
economic analysis and expert witness litigation support related to the
Pigford Consent Decree which resulted from a class action lawsuit that
alleged racial discrimination in the administration of USDA farm loan
and benefit programs, and (2) publish information on retail purchases of
representative meat products required by the Mandatory Price Reporting
Act of 1999.
Energy Information Administration: Funding is requested to continue:
(1) overhauling the natural gas and electricity surveys and data systems
to accommodate the changes in these industries brought on by
deregulation and restructuring; (2) updating EIA's 20-year-old energy
consumption surveys; (3) improving the data quality and accuracy in
crude oil, diesel, gasoline, and natural gas production surveys; (4)
modifying surveys to reflect changes under Tier II of the Clean Air Act
Amendments, and (5) integrating information processing infrastructure
upgrades to enhance energy data collection, analyses, and dissemination,
and meet Government Paperwork Elimination Act requirements.
National Agricultural Statistics Service: Funding is requested to: (1)
finalize preparations for data collection and processing for the 2002
Census of Agriculture that include printing over three million
questionnaires and other materials; developing final procedures for
mailout and processing; designing and testing computer systems;
developing State and national management and tabulation plans; preparing
for the census in Puerto Rico and insular areas; training; and
developing dissemination mechanisms for both electronic and printed
media; and (2) establish a computer security architecture to increase
protection of market-sensitive and confidential data from cybersecurity
threats.
National Center for Education Statistics: Funding is requested to
administer State-level reading and mathematics assessments for the
National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) annually in grades 4
and 8, as well as to continue the current NAEP assessment program.
Funding is also requested to continue support for: (1) an institutional
census survey program that provides information on elementary,
secondary, and postsecondary education and on libraries; (2) a special
cross-sectional surveys program that collects and reports data on a wide
variety of topics, including schools and school staff, adult literacy,
postsecondary faculty, and postsecondary student aid; (3) a longitudinal
surveys program that includes the Early Childhood Longitudinal Studies'
Birth and Kindergarten cohorts, the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002
which will follow a nationally representative sample of high school
students, and two postsecondary surveys, the Beginning Postsecondary
Longitudinal Survey and the Baccalaureate and Beyond; (4) an
international studies program that includes a variety of projects, such
as the Third International Mathematics and Science Study-Repeat (TIMSS-
R); (5) a statistical standards and reporting program designed to
enhance the quality and usefulness of NCES data; and (6) training,
technical assistance, and dissemination projects.
National Center for Health Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1)
continue to stabilize and rebuild core data systems as part of an
ongoing effort to maintain existing data systems while retooling to meet
new data
[[Page 222]]
needs and more fully utilize new technology and methods; (2) support
updating the design of household survey samples based on Census 2000
data; and (3) provide information critical to monitoring the dynamics of
health and health care, and provide the underpinnings for biomedical
research, health policy, and public health practice through support of
the National Health Interview Survey, the National Health and Nutrition
Examination Survey, the National Vital Statistics System, and the
National Health Care Survey.
Table 11-1. 2000-2002 BUDGET AUTHORITY FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES
(In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002
actual estimate estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bureau of Economic Analysis................................................. 43.8 48.1 56.6
Bureau of Justice Statistics................................................ 25.5 29.0 30.5
Bureau of Labor Statistics.................................................. 413.2 \1\, \2\ 4 \3\ 468.3
50.9
Bureau of the Census........................................................ 4,749.7 \2\, \4\ 4 543.4
29.2
Periodic Censuses and Programs........................................... 4,609.3 \4\ 272.3 374.8
Salaries and Expenses.................................................... 140.0 156.8 168.6
Bureau of Transportation Statistics......................................... 31.0 31.0 43.8
Economic Research Service................................................... 64.1 65.9 67.0
Energy Information Administration........................................... 72.4 75.5 75.5
National Agricultural Statistics Service \5\................................ 99.4 100.6 113.8
National Center for Education Statistics.................................... 108.0 120.0 193.1
Statistics................................................................ 68.0 80.0 84.0
Assessment................................................................ 36.0 36.0 105.0
National Assessment Governing Board...................................... 4.0 4.0 4.1
National Center for Health Statistics....................................... 111.8 122.4 127.0
PHS Evaluation Funds...................................................... 71.7 71.7 127.0
Budget Authority.......................................................... 40.1 50.7 0.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes a transfer of $20.7 million from elsewhere in the Department of Labor to centralize the preparation
of labor market information.
\2\ Includes rescission (P.L. 106-554)
\3\ Total reflects a financing charge that reduces the 2002 total by $7.5 million.
\4\ Does not include $260 million in carry-over funding made available to the Census Bureau in 2001 from funds
appropriated for the Decennial Census in 2000, resulting in a 2001 program level of $689.2 million.
\5\ Includes funds for the periodic Census of Agriculture and Special Studies of $16.5, $15.0, and $25.0
(million) in 2000, 2001, and 2002, respectively.