[Analytical Perspectives]
[Special Analyses and Presentations]
[11. Strengthening Federal Statistics]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]


 
                  11.  STRENGTHENING FEDERAL STATISTICS

  Our economy's complexity, growth, and rapid structural changes require 
that public and private leaders have unbiased, relevant information on 
which to base their decisions. Data on real Gross Domestic Product 
(GDP), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the trade deficit, for 
example, have a major impact on government spending, budget projections, 
and the allocation of Federal funds. They also are critical inputs to 
monetary, fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy. Economic data, such as 
measures of price change, have as well a significant influence on 
interest rates and cost-of-living adjustments that affect every American 
who runs a business, saves for retirement, or obtains a mortgage.
  Similarly, timely, comparable data on the characteristics of the U.S. 
population are essential to monitor societal changes. Of great import in 
2002 will be the continuing delivery of Census 2000 data products used 
to allocate locally each year nearly $200 billion in Federal funds. In 
recognition of its significance and in response to concerns about early 
planning and the quality of long-form data, the Census Bureau proposes 
to streamline the very complex decennial census process and to actively 
seek opportunities to innovate. The plan for the next decade is to 
completely reengineer the 2010 Census as part of a strategy to develop a 
more systematic, integrated, building-block approach for decennial and 
demographic data collection. This approach has three major components:
    a simplified 2010 Census and more timely data based on 
          eliminating the long form through implementation of the 
          American Community Survey (ACS);
    a single, continuously updated address universe and 
          associated geographical products for use in all decennial and 
          demographic programs; and
    a well-tested and planned 2010 Census design produced 
          through systematic development prior to mid-decade operational 
          testing.
  The American Community Survey is a revolutionary, structural 
initiative of the statistical system that will provide community 
profiles similar to those from the decennial census on a far more 
current basis. For geographic areas with populations greater than 
65,000, these profiles will be produced every year. For smaller areas, 
the ACS will accumulate or average data over several years to obtain 
annual estimates similar in quality and reliability to those currently 
available only once each decade. Thus, every jurisdiction ultimately 
will have annual information that illuminates change over time. (The 
official counts of the population will continue to come from the 
decennial census and the intercensal estimates program.) Because the 
American Community Survey will provide essentially the same information 
as the current decennial census long form, the Census Bureau plans to 
eliminate the long form in the 2010 Census, thereby focusing that effort 
on counting the population using only the short form. In 2002, Phase II 
of developing the ACS occurs, in which data from the 1999-2001 ACS will 
be compared with Census 2000 results.
  Under the aegis of the congressionally-mandated Interagency Council on 
Statistical Policy (ICSP), the principal statistical agencies continue 
to extend their collaborative endeavors to improve the overall 
performance and efficiency of the Federal statistical system. For 
example, the ICSP is supporting FedStats (www.fedstats.gov), the ``one-
stop shopping'' Internet site for Federal statistics that permits easy 
access via an initial point of entry to the wide array of statistical 
information available to the public from more than 100 Federal agencies. 
In 2000, FedStats nearly doubled (from 40 to 77) the number of agencies 
whose data series are indexed there. In 2001, the FedStats team updated 
its home page based on recommendations from a usability work group, and 
enhanced its MapStats section to provide an interactive map-based 
application to access a variety of data at the State, county, 
congressional district, and Federal judicial district levels.
  The statistical system is also working effectively to enhance the 
quality of data the agencies produce. For example, statistical agencies 
have developed proposed data sharing legislation that would permit 
limited sharing of confidential data among selected agencies solely for 
statistical purposes. Enactment of this legislation, and of a companion 
Treasury Department proposal that would make complementary changes to 
provisions set forth in the ``Statistical Use'' section of the Internal 
Revenue Code, will create a framework for statistical agencies to 
compare and improve the quality of their data.
  Despite these accomplishments, rapid changes in our economy and 
society, and funding levels that challenge statistical agencies to keep 
pace with them, can threaten the relevance, accuracy, and timeliness of 
our Nation's key statistics. Any growing inability of our statistical 
system to mirror accurately our economy and society, including the 
unprecedented growth of electronic commerce, could undermine core 
government activities, such as the accurate allocation of scarce Federal 
funds. Fortunately, the most serious shortcomings of our statistical 
infrastructure would be substantially mitigated by five programs 
supported in the Administration's budget as well as a legislative 
initiative. In particular, these actions would:
    develop an integrated statistical base for analysis of the 
          effects of E-business across our Nation's products and 
          industries, including changes in the structure of investment, 
          pricing, and distribution

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          practices (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the 
          Census);
    support the tabulation, analysis, and dissemination of 
          Census 2000 data in order to reap the benefits of Census 2000 
          investments (Bureau of the Census);
    support early planning for the 2010 Census predicated on a 
          fundamental reengineering of the census process (Bureau of the 
          Census);
    continue implementation of the American Community Survey 
          program to produce far more timely data for States and local 
          areas that will be used for various purposes, including the 
          distribution of nearly $200 billion in Federal funds annually 
          (Bureau of the Census);
    improve coverage of the construction and service sectors in 
          the Producer Price Index (which may also produce 
          methodological techniques that further improve the Consumer 
          Price Index) and enhance coverage of the service sector in BLS 
          productivity estimates (Bureau of Labor Statistics); and
    provide new statutory authority for the limited sharing of 
          data among designated Federal agencies solely for statistical 
          purposes. The proposed changes would permit these statistical 
          agencies to manage information in many important respects as 
          if they were part of a single agency, thereby increasing the 
          accuracy of statistical estimates and the efficiency of 
          Federal data collection.
  Taken together, statistics produced by the Federal Government on 
demographic, economic, and social conditions and trends are essential to 
inform decisions that are made by virtually every organization and 
household in our Nation. The U.S. Federal statistical system comprises 
some 70 agencies that collect, analyze, and disseminate information for 
use by governments, businesses, researchers, and the public. 
Approximately one third of the funding for the statistical system 
provides resources for ten agencies that have statistical activities as 
their principal mission. (Please see Table 11-1.) The remaining funding 
is spread among some sixty agencies that carry out statistical 
activities in conjunction with other missions such as providing services 
or enforcing regulations. The following highlights elaborate on the 
Administration's proposals to strengthen the programs of the principal 
Federal statistical agencies.

 HIGHLIGHTS OF 2002 PROGRAM PROPOSALS FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES

  Bureau of Economic Analysis: Funding is requested to address critical 
gaps in coverage and the growing measurement error in Gross Domestic 
Product (GDP) and the national income accounts. BEA will develop new 
data sources and methods to improve measurement of the services 
industry, including telecommunications and other E-business related 
services; savings, investment and household wealth; international trade 
and finance; and derivative instruments, and will incorporate this 
information into the economic accounts. BEA will work with other 
statistical agencies to: (1) ensure that E-business, including related 
investment, is captured in estimates of GDP and other economic accounts 
data, and (2) develop estimates of the impact of E-business across 
products and industries, including investment, prices, and distribution. 
In addition, BEA will upgrade its computer and data handling 
capabilities to protect and disseminate its data and meet the demands of 
these improved measures of economic performance. Without such 
improvements, timely release of the GDP and related measures would be 
put at risk.
  Bureau of Justice Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1) design and 
field a statistical series on the nature and consequences of routine 
traffic stops based on administrative data from law enforcement agencies 
and supplemental data from the National Crime Victimization Survey 
(NCVS) to learn about the public's experience relating to traffic stops; 
(2) implement a voluntary reporting system of deaths of persons while in 
law enforcement custody as required by the Deaths in Custody Act of 2000 
that will include reports, submitted quarterly by States, on the death 
of any person who is in the process of arrest, is en route to be 
incarcerated, or is incarcerated at a municipal or county jail, State 
prison, or other local or State correctional facility; (3) initiate the 
conversion of the NCVS interviewing and data collection activities from 
primarily a paper and pencil operation to a fully computerized system; 
(4) develop a methodology and initiate preliminary testing of potential 
questions to be used to enhance the NCVS to measure victimization of the 
disabled population in the United States as required by the Crime 
Victims with Disabilities Awareness Act; and (5) continue the Cybercrime 
Statistical Program, initiated in 2001, designed to measure changes in 
the incidence, magnitude, and consequences of electronic crime.
  Bureau of Labor Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1) begin a new 
effort to fundamentally change the way the Consumer Price Index is 
revised and updated by instituting a process for continuous improvement 
in place of the periodic major revisions that were undertaken about 
every ten years; (2) enhance BLS' data security program and start 
replacing much of its decade-old local area network (LAN) infrastructure 
with a more current and capable LAN system through a central Department 
of Labor appropriation; (3) proceed with development of a new survey to 
measure how Americans spend their time in order to improve assessments 
of national well-being, and produce diary estimates of time spent in 
market work to evaluate existing estimates of work hours; (4) continue 
work to extend Producer Price Index coverage for the first time to the 
construction sector of the U.S. economy and to enhance service sector 
coverage; (5) proceed with development of new industry labor and 
multifactor productivity series for the service-producing sector; and 
(6) continue

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to improve the statistical quality of local area unemployment 
statistics.
  Bureau of the Census: Funding is requested for Census 2000, Census 
2010 Planning, and for the Census Bureau's economic and demographic 
programs. For Census 2000, funding is requested to: (1) continue to 
disseminate data products; (2) manage remaining activities to complete 
Census 2000; (3) ensure that the contracts for data capture are closed 
out efficiently; (4) respond to concerns from local and tribal 
governments about the accuracy of the census counts via the Count 
Question Resolution program; (5) compare data from the American 
Community Survey (ACS) with Census 2000 results; and (6) continue 
evaluating census operations. For the 2010 Census, funding is requested 
to provide for adequate testing and simplified data collection by: (1) 
establishing an early design and testing infrastructure to allow 
complete testing of all major elements of the 2010 Census design; (2) 
developing the Long Form Transitional Database to enable reengineering 
of the 2010 Census through use of the ACS to collect long form data; and 
(3) replacing the MAF/TIGER system with one that uses Global Positioning 
System technology and satellite mapping imagery to update and improve 
the Census 2000 address information. For Census Bureau economic and 
demographic programs, funding is requested to: (1) maintain the program 
to measure E-business; (2) redesign samples for household surveys based 
on Census 2000 data; and (3) begin implementation of the 2002 Economic 
Censuses and Census of Governments.
  Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1) 
implement the Safety Data Action Plan, a series of projects to improve 
the quality, comparability, and timeliness of transportation safety data 
and to better understand accident causation; (2) improve the collection 
and analysis of aviation data, particularly data related to flight delay 
and airline competition; (3) continue developing the Intermodal 
Transportation Data Base, a web-based portal that provides one-stop 
shopping for transportation data; (4) expand the National Transportation 
Library, which provides access to the Nation's transportation research 
and planning literature via the Internet; (5) collect data on travel 
behavior, freight movement, customer satisfaction, and motor carrier 
operations; (6) strengthen transportation data analysis and study 
emerging trends; (7) improve statistical tools for geo-spatial data 
analyses and promote their use in transportation applications; (8) 
ensure the reliability of DOT's GPRA performance measurement data and 
develop measures for DOT's new strategic goals; and (9) publish the 
monthly Transportation Indicators report, the congressionally-mandated 
Transportation Statistics Annual Report, and its companion, the National 
Transportation Statistics report.
  Economic Research Service: Funding is requested to: (1) provide 
economic analysis and expert witness litigation support related to the 
Pigford Consent Decree which resulted from a class action lawsuit that 
alleged racial discrimination in the administration of USDA farm loan 
and benefit programs, and (2) publish information on retail purchases of 
representative meat products required by the Mandatory Price Reporting 
Act of 1999.
  Energy Information Administration: Funding is requested to continue: 
(1) overhauling the natural gas and electricity surveys and data systems 
to accommodate the changes in these industries brought on by 
deregulation and restructuring; (2) updating EIA's 20-year-old energy 
consumption surveys; (3) improving the data quality and accuracy in 
crude oil, diesel, gasoline, and natural gas production surveys; (4) 
modifying surveys to reflect changes under Tier II of the Clean Air Act 
Amendments, and (5) integrating information processing infrastructure 
upgrades to enhance energy data collection, analyses, and dissemination, 
and meet Government Paperwork Elimination Act requirements.
  National Agricultural Statistics Service: Funding is requested to: (1) 
finalize preparations for data collection and processing for the 2002 
Census of Agriculture that include printing over three million 
questionnaires and other materials; developing final procedures for 
mailout and processing; designing and testing computer systems; 
developing State and national management and tabulation plans; preparing 
for the census in Puerto Rico and insular areas; training; and 
developing dissemination mechanisms for both electronic and printed 
media; and (2) establish a computer security architecture to increase 
protection of market-sensitive and confidential data from cybersecurity 
threats.
  National Center for Education Statistics: Funding is requested to 
administer State-level reading and mathematics assessments for the 
National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) annually in grades 4 
and 8, as well as to continue the current NAEP assessment program. 
Funding is also requested to continue support for: (1) an institutional 
census survey program that provides information on elementary, 
secondary, and postsecondary education and on libraries; (2) a special 
cross-sectional surveys program that collects and reports data on a wide 
variety of topics, including schools and school staff, adult literacy, 
postsecondary faculty, and postsecondary student aid; (3) a longitudinal 
surveys program that includes the Early Childhood Longitudinal Studies' 
Birth and Kindergarten cohorts, the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 
which will follow a nationally representative sample of high school 
students, and two postsecondary surveys, the Beginning Postsecondary 
Longitudinal Survey and the Baccalaureate and Beyond; (4) an 
international studies program that includes a variety of projects, such 
as the Third International Mathematics and Science Study-Repeat (TIMSS-
R); (5) a statistical standards and reporting program designed to 
enhance the quality and usefulness of NCES data; and (6) training, 
technical assistance, and dissemination projects.
  National Center for Health Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1) 
continue to stabilize and rebuild core data systems as part of an 
ongoing effort to maintain existing data systems while retooling to meet 
new data

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needs and more fully utilize new technology and methods; (2) support 
updating the design of household survey samples based on Census 2000 
data; and (3) provide information critical to monitoring the dynamics of 
health and health care, and provide the underpinnings for biomedical 
research, health policy, and public health practice through support of 
the National Health Interview Survey, the National Health and Nutrition 
Examination Survey, the National Vital Statistics System, and the 
National Health Care Survey.

                   Table 11-1.  2000-2002 BUDGET AUTHORITY FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 2000        2001        2002
                                                                                actual     estimate    estimate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bureau of Economic Analysis.................................................        43.8        48.1        56.6
Bureau of Justice Statistics................................................        25.5        29.0        30.5
Bureau of Labor Statistics..................................................       413.2  \1\, \2\ 4   \3\ 468.3
                                                                                                50.9

Bureau of the Census........................................................     4,749.7  \2\, \4\ 4       543.4
                                                                                                29.2
   Periodic Censuses and Programs...........................................     4,609.3   \4\ 272.3       374.8
   Salaries and Expenses....................................................       140.0       156.8       168.6

Bureau of Transportation Statistics.........................................        31.0        31.0        43.8
Economic Research Service...................................................        64.1        65.9        67.0
Energy Information Administration...........................................        72.4        75.5        75.5
National Agricultural Statistics Service \5\................................        99.4       100.6       113.8

National Center for Education Statistics....................................       108.0       120.0       193.1
  Statistics................................................................        68.0        80.0        84.0
  Assessment................................................................        36.0        36.0       105.0
   National Assessment Governing Board......................................         4.0         4.0         4.1

National Center for Health Statistics.......................................       111.8       122.4       127.0
  PHS Evaluation Funds......................................................        71.7        71.7       127.0
  Budget Authority..........................................................        40.1        50.7         0.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes a transfer of $20.7 million from elsewhere in the Department of Labor to centralize the preparation
  of labor market information.

\2\ Includes rescission (P.L. 106-554)

\3\ Total reflects a financing charge that reduces the 2002 total by $7.5 million.

\4\ Does not include $260 million in carry-over funding made available to the Census Bureau in 2001 from funds
  appropriated for the Decennial Census in 2000, resulting in a 2001 program level of $689.2 million.

\5\ Includes funds for the periodic Census of Agriculture and Special Studies of $16.5, $15.0, and $25.0
  (million) in 2000, 2001, and 2002, respectively.