[Analytical Perspectives]
[Other Technical Presentations]
[17. Comparison of Actual to Estimated Totals for 2000]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]


 
         17.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL TO ESTIMATED TOTALS FOR 2000

  The following three parts of this chapter compare the actual total 
receipts, outlays, and surplus for 2000 with the current services 
estimates \1\ shown in the 2000 Budget published in February 1999. The 
fourth part of this chapter shows additional details for a comparison of 
mandatory and related programs, and the final part reconciles actual 
receipts, outlays, and surplus totals for 2000 previously published by 
the Department of the Treasury with those in this budget.
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  \1\ The current services concept is discussed in Chapter 14: ``Current 
Services Estimates.'' For mandatory programs and receipts the February 
1999 current services estimate is based on laws then in place. For 
discretionary programs the current services estimate is based on the 
prior year estimates adjusted for inflation.
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                                Receipts

  Receipts in 2000 were $2,025.2 billion, which is $153.4 billion 
greater than the current services estimate of $1,871.8 billion in the 
2000 Budget. As shown in Table 17-1, this increase was the net effect of 
legislative and administrative changes; economic conditions that 
differed from what had been expected; and technical factors that 
resulted in different collection patterns and effective tax rates than 
had been assumed. 

   Policy differences.--The Consolidated Appropriations Act for FY 2000 
and the repeal of the Social Security earnings test increased 2000 
receipts by $3.8 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively. Other 
legislative and administrative changes enacted after February 1999 
partially offset the increases provided in these two Acts, resulting in 
a net increase in 2000 receipts relative to the February 1999 current 
services estimate of $4.5 billion.
  Economic differences.--Differences between the economic assumptions 
upon which the current services estimates were made and actual economic 
performance accounted for a net increase in 2000 receipts of $87.6 
billion. Higher-than-anticipated wages and salaries and other sources of 
personal income were in large part responsible for the increases in 
individual income taxes and social insurance and retirement receipts of 
$39.0 billion and $16.2 billion, respectively. Increased corporation 
income taxes, attributable to higher-than-expected corporate profits, 
increased 2000 receipts by an additional $24.7 billion relative to the 
February 1999 estimate. Excise taxes were also higher than the budget 
estimate, in large part due to higher-than-estimated levels of gross 
domestic product (GDP). Higher-than-expected imports, which affect 
customs duties, and higher-than-expected interest rates, which affect 
deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve (miscellaneous receipts), 
increased receipts above the budget estimates by an additional $1.8 
billion and $3.9 billion, respectively.
  Technical reestimates.--Technical factors increased 2000 receipts a 
net $61.2 billion above the February 1999 current services estimate. 
This net increase was in large part attributable to higher-than-
anticipated collections of individual income taxes and estate and gift 
taxes, which were partially offset by lower-than-anticipated collections 
of corporation income taxes. Higher effective tax rates on personal 
income than estimated in February 1999, and the continued strength of 
the stock market and its effect on capital gains, were in large part 
responsible for the increase in individual income taxes of $61.2 
billion. Greater-than-anticipated numbers and values of taxable estates, 
attributable in large part to the continued strength of the stock 
market, increased estate and gift taxes $2.4 billion above the budget 
estimate. Different collection patterns and effective tax rates than 
assumed in February 1999 were primarily responsible for the lower-than-
anticipated collections of corporation income taxes of $3.1 billion.

           Table 17-1.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL 2000 RECEIPTS WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         Enacted
                                          Feb. 1999   legislation/    Different  Technical     Net
                                           estimate  administrative   economic    factors     change     Actual
                                                         actions     conditions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes.................     902.1           2.2          39.0       61.2      102.4    1,004.5
Corporation income taxes................     186.5          -0.8          24.7       -3.1       20.8      207.3
Social insurance and retirement receipts     636.2   ..............       16.2        0.4       16.6      652.9
Excise taxes............................      65.2             *           2.2        1.4        3.6       68.9
Estate and gift taxes...................      26.7   ..............       -0.1        2.4        2.3       29.0
Customs duties..........................      19.6          -0.6           1.8       -0.9        0.3       19.9
Miscellaneous receipts..................      35.4           3.8           3.9       -0.2        7.4       42.8
                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------
   Total................................   1,871.8           4.5          87.6       61.2      153.4   2,025.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Indicates $50 million or less.

[[Page 324]]

                                 Outlays

  Outlays for 2000 were $1,788.8 billion. This was $14.7 billion more 
than the $1,774.1 billion current services estimate in the 2000 Budget 
(February 1999).
  Table 17-2 distributes the $14.7 billion net increase in outlays among 
discretionary and mandatory programs and net interest. Discretionary 
programs, those whose spending is controlled by annual appropriations 
acts, are $18.8 billion above the February 1999 estimate. Mandatory 
programs are those controlled by authorizing legislation. Outlays for 
mandatory programs depend on eligibility criteria, benefit levels, and 
other factors established in law. Major examples of these programs 
include Social Security and Medicare benefits for the elderly, 
agricultural price support payments to farmers, and deposit insurance 
for banks and thrift institutions. On net, mandatory outlays are $11.8 
billion below the February 1999 estimate.
  The table also makes rough estimates according to three reasons for 
the changes: policy; economic conditions; and technical estimating 
differences, a residual. 

   Policy changes are the result of actions by the Congress or the 
Administration that change spending levels, primarily through higher or 
lower appropriations or changes in authorizing legislation. For 2000, 
policy changes increased outlays an estimated $27.2 billion relative to 
the initial current services estimates.
  Policy changes increased discretionary outlays by $7.6 billion, 
because outlays from final appropriations were above the current 
services estimates. Defense discretionary outlays increased by $4.2 
billion and nondefense discretionary outlays increased by $3.4 billion. 
Policy changes increased mandatory outlays by $18.9 billion above 
current law. The largest changes were increases of $14.0 billion for 
emergency and non-emergency spending for agricultural programs and a 
$4.5 billion increase in Social Security benefit payments from repealing 
the Social Security earnings test.
  Economic conditions that differed from those forecasted in February 
1999 resulted in a net decrease in outlays of $0.1 billion. Outlays for 
mandatory programs decreased an estimated $7.8 billion, largely due to 
lower-than-expected unemployment rates, which in turn reduced outlays 
for unemployment compensation and food stamps. Most of this reduction 
was offset by an increase of $7.7 billion in net interest due to a 
combination of higher-than-projected interest rates, partially offset by 
decreased borrowing requirements that resulted from the effect of 
economic factors on receipts and outlays.
  Technical estimating differences and other changes resulted in a net 
decrease in outlays of $12.4 billion. Outlays for discretionary programs 
increased an estimated $11.2 billion, largely due to higher-than-
estimated outlays for defense programs. Technical changes for mandatory 
programs result from changes in such factors as the number of 
beneficiaries for entitlement programs, crop conditions, or other 
factors not associated with policy changes or economic conditions. 
Outlays for mandatory programs decreased an estimated $23.0 billion, 
largely due to lower-than-anticipated outlays for Medicare. Medicare 
spending decreased by over $20 billion due to overestimation of benefit 
expenditures, in particular those in the areas of inpatient hospital 
care and home health.

                                 Surplus

  The preceding two sections discussed the differences between the 
initial current services estimates and the actual amounts of Federal 
Government receipts and outlays for 2000. This section combines these 
effects to show the net impact of these differences on the surplus. 

   As shown in Table 17-3, the 2000 current services surplus was 
initially estimated to be $97.7 billion. The actual surplus was $236.4 
billion, which was a $138.7 billion increase from the initial estimate. 
Receipts were $153.4 billion more than the initial estimate, and outlays 
were $14.7 billion more. The table shows the distribution of the changes 
according to the categories in the preceding two sections.

           Table 17-2.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL 2000 OUTLAYS WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      Current                  Changes
                                                     Services -----------------------------------------
                                                       (Feb.                                    Total    Actual
                                                       1999)    Policy   Economic  Technical   changes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discretionary:.....................................
   Defense.........................................     279.0       4.2  ........       11.8      16.0     295.0
   Nondefense......................................     317.1       3.4  ........       -0.6       2.8     319.9
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
     Subtotal, discretionary.......................     596.1       7.6  ........       11.2      18.8     614.8

Mandatory:
   Social Security.................................     405.2       4.5      -0.1       -3.6       0.8     406.0
   Other programs..................................     557.4      14.4      -7.7      -19.4     -12.7     544.7
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
     Subtotal, mandatory...........................     962.6      18.9      -7.8      -23.0     -11.8     950.8
Net interest.......................................     215.5       0.7       7.7       -0.6       7.8     223.2
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
 Total outlays.....................................   1,774.1      27.2      -0.1      -12.4      14.7   1,788.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 325]]

      Table 17-3.  COMPARISON OF THE ACTUAL 2000 SURPLUS WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES SURPLUS ESTIMATE
                                             (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      Current                  Changes
                                                     Services -----------------------------------------
                                                       (Feb.                                    Total    Actual
                                                       1999)    Policy   Economic  Technical   changes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts...........................................   1,871.8       4.5      87.6       61.2     153.4   2,025.2

Outlays............................................   1,774.1      27.2      -0.1      -12.4      14.7   1,788.8
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Surplus........................................      97.7     -22.7      87.7       73.6     138.7    236.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Surplus changes are receipts minus outlays.

  The net effect of policy changes for receipts and outlays reduced the 
surplus by $22.7 billion. Economic conditions that differed from the 
initial assumptions in February 1999 accounted for an estimated $87.7 
billion increase in the surplus, almost entirely due to higher receipts. 
Technical factors increased the surplus by an estimated $73.6 billion. 
This was due to an increase in receipts of $61.2 billion and a decrease 
in outlays of $12.4 billion.

Comparison of the Actual and Estimated Outlays for Mandatory and Related 
                            Programs for 2000

  This section compares the original 2000 outlay estimates for mandatory 
and related programs under current law in the 2000 Budget (February 
1999) with the actual outlays. This section includes net interest 
outlays and undistributed offsetting receipts. Net interest outlays 
consist of interest paid on Treasury debt securities, interest received 
by on and off-budget trust funds, and other interest earnings and 
payments. Undistributed offsetting receipts include Federal employer 
contributions to retirement trust funds, rents and royalties on the 
Outer Continental Shelf, and spectrum auction receipts.
  A number of factors may cause differences between the amounts 
estimated in the budget and the actual outlays. For example, legislation 
may change benefit rates or coverage; the actual number of beneficiaries 
may differ from the number estimated; or economic conditions (such as 
inflation or interest rates) may differ from what was assumed in making 
the original estimates.
  Table 17-4 shows the differences between the actual outlays for these 
programs in 2000 and the amounts originally estimated in the 2000 
Budget, based on laws in effect at that time. Actual outlays for 
mandatory spending and net interest in 2000 were $1,174.0 billion, which 
was $4.1 billion less than the estimate based on existing law in 
February 1999.
  Actual outlays for mandatory human resources programs were $967.8 
billion, $30.0 billion less than originally estimated. This decrease was 
the net effect of legislative action, differences between actual and 
assumed economic conditions, differences between the anticipated and 
actual number of beneficiaries, and other technical differences.
  Outlays for other functions were $18.4 billion more than originally 
estimated, largely because of increases of $21.0 billion for agriculture 
programs. Undistributed offsetting receipts were $0.3 billion more than 
expected.
  Outlays for net interest were $223.2 billion or $7.8 billion more than 
the original estimate. This increase was the net impact of changes in 
interest rates from those initially assumed, lower borrowing 
requirements due to surpluses in 1999 and 2000, and technical factors.

  Reconciliation of Differences with Amounts Published by Treasury for 
                                  2000

   Table 17-5 provides a reconciliation of the receipts, outlays, and 
surplus totals published by the Department of the Treasury in the 
September 30, 2000, Monthly Treasury Statement and those published in 
this budget. The Department of the Treasury made technical adjustments 
to the estimates for the U.S. Government Annual Report, which increased 
outlays by $95 million. Additional adjustments made for this budget 
increased receipts by $181 million and increased outlays by $686 
million. The major changes were for Federal family education loans, 
student loan reserve funds, and transactions of the United Mine Workers 
of America benefit funds.

[[Page 326]]

  Table 17-4.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED OUTLAYS FOR MANDATORY AND RELATED PROGRAMS UNDER CURRENT LAW
                                            (In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                          2000
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
                                                                          Feb. 1999
                                                                          estimate       Actual        Change
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mandatory outlays:
  Human resources programs:
     Education, training, employment, and social services.............        14.9          10.3          -4.56
     Health:
       Medicaid.......................................................       114.8         117.9           3.1
       Other..........................................................         7.9           6.6          -1.3
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, health................................................       122.8         124.5           1.8

     Medicare.........................................................       214.9         194.1         -20.8

     Income security:
       Retirement and disability......................................        83.8          81.6          -2.2
       Unemployment compensation......................................        25.6          20.7          -4.9
       Food and nutrition assistance..................................        31.6          28.0          -3.6
       Other..........................................................        73.9          76.1           2.2
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, income security.......................................       215.0         206.5          -8.5

     Social security..................................................       405.2         406.0           0.8

     Veterans benefits and services:
       Income security for veterans...................................        23.3          24.9           1.6
       Other..........................................................         1.6           1.5          -0.2
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, veterans benefits and services........................        24.9          26.3           1.4
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, mandatory human resources programs....................       997.7         967.8         -30.0

   Other functions:
     Agriculture......................................................        10.9          32.0          21.0
     Deposit insurance................................................        -2.2          -3.1          -0.8
     Other functions..................................................        -1.5          -3.3          -1.8
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
       Total, other functions.........................................         7.2          25.6          18.4
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
   Undistributed offsetting receipts:
     Employer share, employee retirement..............................       -37.0         -37.9          -0.9
     Rents and royalties on the outer continental shelf...............        -2.8          -4.6          -1.8
     Other undistributed offsetting receipts..........................        -2.5          -0.2           2.4
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
       Total, undistributed offsetting receipts.......................       -42.3         -42.6          -0.3
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, mandatory.............................................       962.6         950.8         -11.8

Net interest:.........................................................
   Interest on Treasury debt securities (gross).......................       346.6         362.0          15.4
   Interest received by trust funds...................................      -125.0        -128.9          -3.9
   Other interest.....................................................        -6.2          -9.9          -3.7
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, net interest..........................................       215.5         223.2           7.8
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, outlays for mandatory and net interest................     1,178.1       1,174.0          -4.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 327]]

                              Table 17-5.  RECONCILIATION OF FINAL AMOUNTS FOR 2000
                                            (In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Receipts         Outlays         Surplus
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Totals published by Treasury (September 30, 2000, Monthly              2,025,038       1,788,045         236,993
 Treasury Statement)............................................
   Miscellaneous Treasury adjustments...........................              -*              95             -95
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
Adjustments: Totals published by Treasury in U.S. Government           2,025,037       1,788,140         236,897
 Annual Report..................................................
   Federal family education loans...............................  ..............             731            -731
   Student loan reserve funds...................................  ..............            -139             139
   United Mine Workers of America benefit funds.................             155             155  ..............
   Other........................................................              26             -61              87
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
 Total adjustments, net.........................................             181             686            -505
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
Totals in the budget............................................       2,025,218       1,788,826         236,392

                           MEMORANDUM:

 Total change since September 30, 2000, Monthly Treasury                     180             781            -601
 Statement......................................................
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