[Economic Outlook, Highlights from FY 1994 to FY 2001, FY 2002 Baseline Projections]
[IV. Current Services Estimates and the Pending Policy Agenda]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
[[Page 205]]
IV. CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES AND THE PENDING POLICY AGENDA
The current services baseline shows what receipts, outlays, surpluses,
and budget authority would be if no changes were made to laws already
enacted. It is an essential starting point in developing the annual
budget. Although it is not intended to be a prediction of the final
outcome of the budget process, it serves several useful purposes. First,
it provides a measuring stick against which competing proposals can be
compared. The extent to which proposals change the level of services
provided under current law can be readily determined and communicated.
Second, it warns of future problems, either for Government fiscal policy
as a whole or for individual tax and spending programs. The baseline
levels of surpluses can provide policymakers with important information
on what resources are available for priority needs.
OMB follows the rules in the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) that specify
how to develop baseline estimates. These rules require largely
mechanical applications of estimating models. Receipts and mandatory
programs are projected based on continuation of existing laws into the
future. In some instances, the way the rules were written can understate
the full demands on future resources. For example, baseline rules
require that certain provisions of law that affect receipts and
mandatory programs expire as specified under current law. In a number of
cases, these provisions have been routinely extended in the past.
Because it is widely assumed that they will again be extended at their
expiration, the failure to include them in baseline estimates
understates virtually certain demands on resources. A more prudent
approach would be to include these expiring provisions as part of the
baseline before considering further policy changes.
In this section of the document, we show the baseline estimates,
discuss baseline anomalies and provide an adjusted baseline, provide
alternative formulations for the discretionary baseline, and finally
discuss and summarize pending Administration policies that provide an
important reference point.
Baseline Issues
Anomalies are created by the mechanical nature of the BEA baseline
rules. This section discusses those anomalies and what they mean for the
overall baseline.
Expiring Mandatory and Receipts Provisions: The BEA rules require that
expiring provisions of law not specifically covered by a BEA exemption
be assumed to expire as scheduled in the current services baseline. As a
result, a number of provisions that in the past have been routinely
reauthorized by the Congress are not assumed to continue in the baseline
estimates. Extension of expiring provisions of the tax code that have
been previously extended would reduce tax receipts by $118 billion over
the 10 years, 2002 through 2011. Similarly, emergency farm aid is
assumed only for the current crop year even though emergency aid has
been provided to farmers routinely in recent years. If aid at the
average level of the past three years were provided each year, total
spending would increase by $74 billion over the projection period. Some
savings provisions that have been routinely extended are also affected
by the BEA rules. For example, customs user fees are due to expire at
the end of 2003. If extended, these fees would yield $14 billion over
the projection period. Table IV-1 provides a listing of expiring
receipts and mandatory provisions that have been extended in the past.
[[Page 206]]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-1. Accounting for Expiring Provisions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
----------------------------------
2002 2002-2006 2002-2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenue Provisions
(Revenue effect, in billions of
dollars)
Tax credit for first-time D.C. ......... -0.1 -0.2
homebuyers..........................
D.C. enterprise zone/renewal ......... .......... -0.1
community designation...............
Contributions of computer technology ......... -0.3 -1.1
and equipment to schools............
Archer Medical Savings Accounts -* -0.1 -0.2
(MSAs)..............................
Round I and Round II empowerment ......... .......... -1.7
zones...............................
Tax credit for research and ......... -9.9 -48.9
experimentation expenditures........
Work opportunity tax credit.......... -0.1 -1.6 -5.0
Welfare-to-work tax credit........... -* -0.4 -1.3
Exclusion for employer-provided -0.2 -1.8 -4.2
educational assistance..............
Expensing of Brownfields ......... -1.0 -2.6
environmental remediation costs.....
Generalized system of preferences -0.3 -1.8 -4.2
(GSP) \1\...........................
Wind and biomass tax credit.......... -* -0.2 -0.7
Net income limitation on percentage -* -0.1 -0.3
depletion from marginal wells.......
Qualified zone academy bonds......... -* -0.1 -0.7
Exceptions provided under Subpart F -0.9 -7.2 -16.2
for active financing income.........
Treatment of nonrefundable personal -0.3 -9.0 -39.1
credits under AMT...................
IRS letters of determination......... ......... 0.1 0.3
Luxury tax on passenger vehicles \1\. ......... 0.5 1.3
Abandoned mine reclamation fund \1\.. ......... 0.4 1.6
FUTA surtax of 0.2 percentage points ......... .......... 5.5
\1\.................................
----------------------------------
Total, revenue provisions......... -1.8 -32.3 -117.8
Mandatory Provisions
(Outlay effect, in billions of
dollars)
CCC conservation technical assistance * 0.2 0.4
CCC emergency farm income and crop/ 7.3 36.6 73.3
livestock loss assistance...........
Customs user fees.................... ......... -4.6 -13.8
Medicaid transitional medical 0.4 2.1 5.0
assistance..........................
Recreation fee demonstrations........ ......... 0.1 0.5
Veterans housing:
Fee increase of .75 for loans..... ......... .......... -0.6
Fee for subsequent loans.......... ......... .......... -0.3
Inclusion of resale losses in net ......... .......... -*
calculation.......................
Veterans compensation and pensions:
IRS income verification........... ......... -* -0.1
Round down COLAs.................. ......... -0.2 -0.8
Limit VA pensions to Medicaid- ......... .......... -0.5
eligible recipients...............
----------------------------------
Total, mandatory provisions..... 7.7 34.1 63.0
Total, revenue and mandatory -9.5 -66.5 -180.8
provisions (surplus impact).........
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
\1\ Net of income offsets.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 207]]
Non-Defense Discretionary Anomalies in the Baseline: Application of
BEA baseline rules to each program and account can lead to exaggerated
or understated program levels in some instances, thus misstating the
funding needed to meet future demands. For example, there are two
instances where there are already enacted caps for specific
discretionary programs at levels above the inflation-adjusted levels
required by the BEA. The Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century
(TEA-21) established new caps for highway and mass transit spending that
created a guaranteed spending level tied to the collections of receipts
in the Highway trust fund. Failure to acknowledge the higher TEA-21
levels leads to an understatement of transportation spending of $24
billion over the 10-year projection period. Likewise, the new
conservation spending category established in this year's appropriations
bills provides dedicated funding, which may be appropriated for
conservation programs. The BEA baseline underfunds these programs by $7
billion over 10 years compared to the newly enacted caps.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-2. Major Anomalies Caused by BEA Baseline Rules
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
--------------------------------
2002 2002-2006 2002-2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reflect previously enacted caps for
Highways:
Budget Authority.................. 2.1 10.9 23.1
Outlays........................... 0.6 7.7 19.3
Mass transit:
Budget Authority.................. 0.4 3.2 7.1
Outlays........................... * 1.4 5.0
Conservation programs:
Budget Authority.................. 0.3 2.6 7.3
Outlays........................... -0.2 2.1 6.6
--------------------------------
Subtotal, reflect enacted caps:
Budget Authority.................. 2.7 16.8 37.5
Outlays........................... 0.4 11.1 30.9
Examples of major anomalies:
Reflect outyear cyclical Census
spending:
Budget Authority.................. 0.1 1.3 9.5
Outlays........................... 0.1 1.2 9.4
Reflect lack of outyear needs for
Woodrow Wilson Bridge:
Budget Authority.................. -0.6 -3.2 -6.7
Outlays........................... -0.2 -2.3 -5.8
--------------------------------
Total:
Budget Authority..................... 2.2 14.8 40.2
Outlays.............................. 0.3 10.1 34.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
There are also specific programmatic reasons that BEA baseline rules
fail to accurately estimate funding needs. For example, the decennial
census was just completed and enacted spending for the census in 2001 is
relatively low. However, spending on the census will need to increase as
the cycle for the next census begins. If the spending on the census
follows its traditional path, spending would be $9 billion higher over
the 10-year projection period than projected under BEA baseline rules.
Other anomalies created by BEA rules are the result of
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oddities in the 2001 appropriated level. For example, one-time funding
was provided in 2001 for the construction of the Woodrow Wilson Bridge
across the Potomac River. The baseline, however, assumes continued
funding at the same level into the future in the bridge account. Table
IV-2 provides a listing of several large anomalous results that arise
from application of BEA baseline rules.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-3. Bridge from BEA Baseline Surplus to Anomaly Adjusted
Baseline Surplus
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
--------------------------------
2002 2002-2006 2002-2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-budget surplus (excluding HI) 69 474 1,914
applying BEA rules....................
Adjustments for:
Extension of expiring provisions:
Revenues......................... -2 -32 -118
Mandatory programs............... -8 -34 -63
Reflect previously enacted caps for -* -11 -31
specific programs.................
Adjust for major anomalies......... * 1 -4
Related debt service............... -* -10 -56
--------------------------------
Subtotal, adjustments................ -10 -86 -271
Surplus with adjustments............... 58 388 1,643
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline Alternatives
Discretionary, or annually funded, programs are estimated by adjusting
the current year enacted level by inflation into future years. In recent
years, discretionary appropriations have grown above the rate of
inflation and at the same time discretionary programs, both for defense
and non-defense purposes, were at all time lows as a percent of GDP in
1999. While the inflation adjustment specified by the BEA is an
approximate measure to maintain the purchasing power of Federal
programs, there are several other approaches to projecting discretionary
funding needs that should be considered.
Many programs would be expected to need more funding to serve
an increasing population. A reasonable expected growth rate
for discretionary spending might be inflation plus population
growth. For example, funding for the Child Care and
Development Block Grant provides assistance to a set number of
children per year under baseline rules. As the population of
young children grows, a smaller percentage of them will be
assisted under the program at this funding level. If
population were factored in to the baseline calculations for
discretionary programs, outlays for discretionary programs
would grow by $362 billion over 10 years.
Another reasonable expected growth pattern for discretionary
spending is to allow it to grow with the economy. Outlays for
discretionary programs would grow by $979 billion over 10
years compared with the inflation adjustment in the current
services estimates.
Unlike other agencies, budgeting for the Department of Defense
(DOD) is based on multi-year plans with large research,
procurement, and construction needs. It is normal to measure
changes in funding for DOD from the previous long-term plan
rather than a baseline developed under BEA baseline rules. The
level under BEA baseline rules would protect the value of the
$112 billion defense budget authority increase provided by the
President in the 2000 Budget, subsequent changes in law,
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and would be sufficient to accommodate potential increases.
This baseline level would continue high levels of readiness,
offset the impact of higher fuel and inflation costs, and
finance the expanded health care and pay provisions enacted in
the 2001 National Defense Authorization Act.
Pending Policy Proposals
While this Administration has many legislative and budgetary
achievements, there are a number of policy goals that remain unfinished.
The following section discusses a number of examples of both legislation
and funding that reflect this remaining agenda. (See Table IV-4.)
Medicare and Social Security Lockboxes: The Administration remains
committed to solvency the long-term solvency problems of medicare and
social security. Locking away the trust fund surpluses ensures that
these resources are used to reduce public debt and not used for other
purposes. The medicare and social security chapters of Section III
discuss the specifics of the Administration's proposals.
Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit: The President proposed to
modernize the medicare benefit structure by adding a long-overdue
voluntary outpatient prescription drug benefit. The Administration's
proposal offers a broad based benefit through the medicare program which
ensures that all medicare beneficiaries receive a standard, affordable
drug benefit. This historic drug benefit has no deductible and pays for
half of the beneficiary's drug costs from the first prescription filled
each year up to $5,000 in spending when fully phased-in. It also ensures
that beneficiary liability for drug cost sharing is limited to $4,000.
The benefit provides beneficiaries with a price discount similar to that
offered by many employer-sponsored plans for each prescription
purchased--even after the $5,000 limit is reached. The Administration's
plan ensures low-income beneficiaries assistance with cost-sharing. The
Administration estimates the costs of this benefit at $253 billion over
10 years.
Equity in Benefits for Legal Immigrants: The Personal Responsibility
and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) placed
eligibility restrictions on benefits to legal immigrants that were
unrelated to the goal of moving people from welfare to work. In addition
to restrictions on Supplemental Security Income, hundreds of thousands
of legal immigrants face restrictions on access to food stamps and
medicaid, which presents important health implications for noncitizens
as well as citizen children. While subsequent legislation substantially
restored benefit eligibility to many immigrants who were in the United
States when PRWORA was enacted, the remaining restrictions leave too
many immigrants in a precarious position should they suffer a disabling
injury or other hardship that affects their ability to support
themselves and their families, including their citizen children. For
example, children and pregnant women who are legal immigrants are not
eligible for health insurance through medicaid or SCHIP for five years.
PRWORA restrictions contributed to a 22-percent decline in Medicaid/
SCHIP coverage of legal immigrant children between 1995 and 1999. Nearly
half of immigrant children lack a regular source of health care, often
ending up in expensive emergency rooms. For reasons of equity and public
health, these restrictions should be reversed. In addition, although the
Administration sought legislation to eliminate the disparate treatment
of refugees under our immigration laws, it was not successful. It is
important that work continue to provide full parity for Salvadorans,
Guatemalans, Hondurans, Haitians, and Liberians with other refugees. It
is unjust to treat refugees fleeing repression by some dictators better
than those fleeing other equally oppressive regimes. A fair, uniform set
of procedures for all of these refugees must be created.
[[Page 210]]
Table IV-4. Pending Policy Proposals
(Budget authority, in millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2001 Program
Program 2000 ---------------------- Funding Shortfall
Enacted Request Enacted Shortfall 2002-2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Education:
After School......................................... 453 1,000 846 -154 -1,818
Eisenhower Title II Teaching to High Standards....... 23 690 485 -205 -2,421
Teaching to High Standards, National Activities...... 23 255 82 -173 -2,043
School Renovation.................................... ......... 1,300 1,200 -100 -1,181
Class Size Reduction................................. 1,300 1,750 1,623 -127 -1,500
Head Start........................................... 5,267 6,267 6,200 -67 -791
National Service..................................... 437 534 463 -71 -838
National Endowment for the Arts...................... 98 150 105 -45 -531
National Endowment for the Humanities................ 116 150 120 -30 -354
Civil Rights:
Outreach for Socially-Disadvantaged Farmers.......... 3 10 3 -7 -83
Civil Rights Division (Justice)...................... 82 98 92 -6 -71
Legal Services Corporation........................... 304 340 330 -10 -118
Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.............. 281 322 304 -18 -213
Fair Housing (HUD)................................... 77 50 46 -4 -47
Environment:
Natural Resources Conservation Service............... 661 747 714 -33 -390
Clean Water Action Plan.............................. 57 105 76 -29 -342
Climate Change (including Climate Change Technology 151 324 173 -151 -1,783
Initiative and Montreal Protocol)...................
Wetlands Reserve Program............................. 145 259 147 -112 -1,322
Coastal Zone Management Grants....................... 59 159 77 -82 -968
Solar and Renewable Energy........................... 310 410 375 -35 -413
California Bay-Delta................................. 60 60 ......... -60 -708
Everglades Restoration............................... 95 135 118 -17 -201
Columbia River Salmon Restoration.................... 68 91 81 -10 -118
Clean Water Action Plan.............................. 196 211 202 -9 -106
Brownfields (HUD).................................... 25 50 25 -25 -295
Superfund............................................ 1,270 1,337 1,270 -67 -791
Clean Air Partnership................................ ......... 85 ......... -85 -1,004
Environmental Quality Improvement Program............ 174 325 174 -151 -1,783
International:
International Development Association................ 771 836 775 -61 -720
Global Environment Facility.......................... 36 176 108 -68 -803
Other Multilateral Development Banks................. 172 237 158 -79 -933
Nonproliferation, Anti-terrorism, Demining, and 218 353 312 -41 -484
Related Programs....................................
Export/Import Bank................................... 796 1,010 911 -99 -1,169
Middle East.......................................... ......... 750 ......... -750 -1,200
International Population/Family Planning............. 328 484 368 -116 -1,370
Other International Funding.......................... 2,137 2,390 2,288 -102 -1,204
Counterterrorism:
Bioterrorism (FDA)................................... 8 12 5 -7 -83
Counterterrorism..................................... 822 1,039 927 -112 -1,323
Research, Development, and Technology:
Agriculture Research Initiatives..................... 159 324 174 -150 -1,771
Bioproducts/Bioenergy................................ 57 94 63 -31 -366
Food and Nutrition Service Research.................. ......... 17 1 -16 -189
Advanced Technology Program.......................... 211 200 191 -9 -106
National Science Foundation.......................... 3,897 4,572 4,426 -146 -1,724
Connect America's Families........................... ......... 50 ......... -50 -590
DTV Transition for Public Broadcasters............... 27 110 44 -66 -779
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Law Enforcement:
COPS/21st Century Policing Initiative................ 903 1,135 937 -198 -2,338
Gun Prosecutors...................................... ......... 150 75 -75 -886
Community Prosecutors................................ 10 50 25 -25 -295
Immigration and Naturalization....................... 2,992 3,270 3,224 -46 -543
Native American Law Enforcement...................... 350 508 391 -117 -1,381
Customs Air and Marine Enforcement................... 109 157 133 -24 -283
Labor:
Dislocated Workers................................... 1,589 1,771 1,590 -181 -2,137
International Labor Activities....................... 70 167 148 -19 -224
Youth Opportunity Grants............................. 250 375 275 -100 -1,181
Fathers Work/Families Win............................ ......... 255 ......... -255 -3,011
One-Stop Career Centers.............................. 130 174 170 -4 -47
Youth Violence....................................... ......... 115 75 -40 -472
Minimum Wage Increase (Older Americans/Youth ......... 139 ......... -139 -1,641
Activities).........................................
Health:
Family Planning...................................... 239 274 254 -20 -236
Housing and Community Development:
HUD Incremental Vouchers............................. 347 643 453 -190 -2,243
Empowerment Zones.................................... 70 200 90 -110 -1,299
America's Private Investment Companies............... 20 37 ......... -37 -437
Community Development Financial Institutions......... 115 125 118 -7 -83
Distressed Public Housing (HOPE VI).................. 575 625 575 -50 -590
Fund for Rural America............................... 60 60 30 -30 -354
Amtrak/Expanded Intercity Rail Service............... 571 989 521 -468 -5,526
Maintaining Basic Government Services:
FAA Operations/Safety................................ 5,968 6,592 6,544 -48 -567
IRS Operations and Modernization..................... 8,218 8,939 8,855 -84 -992
Critical Infrastructure Protection (GSA)............. ......... 15 8 -7 -83
Repair and Alterations of Public Buildings........... 666 721 679 -42 -496
Construction of Public Buildings..................... 87 679 395 -284 -3,353
Bureau of Indian Affairs Operations.................. 1,640 1,795 1,741 -54 -638
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bipartisan Family Opportunity Act for Children with Disabilities:
Children with disabilities have special health care needs; they are more
likely to be ill as well as use more hospital days than other children.
Because private insurance is often inaccessible or unaffordable for
people with disabilities, many parents of children with special needs
turn down jobs, raises, and overtime to keep their income low enough so
that their children qualify for medicaid. The Family Opportunity Act
would establish a new medicaid buy-in option for children with
disabilities in families with income up to 300 percent of poverty
($42,000 for a family of three). The original bill had 78 cosponsors in
the Senate (S. 2274) and 140 cosponsors in the House (H.R. 4825). The
Congressional Budget Office cost of the provision is $2.1 billion over
five years and $7.3 billion over 10 years.
Class Size Reduction: The 2001 appropriation provided $1.6 billion to
help school districts hire and train 37,000 high quality teachers to
reduce class sizes in the early grades to an average of 18 students per
class. This was the third installment in the bipartisan commitment to
hire 100,000 teachers by 2005 to reduce class sizes in grades 1-3.
School Modernization: According to a recent report by the National
Center for Education Statistics, half of the nation's public schools
need repairs at a total estimated cost of $127 billion. The 2001
appropriation
[[Page 212]]
established a new $1.2 billion school renovation grant program that will
help schools finance emergency repairs. This initiative was one
component of a two-part strategy proposed by the Clinton-Gore
Administration this past year. The second component--also essential to
adequately address our substandard schools--was legislation that won 230
cosponsors in the House of Representatives that would have authorized
Federal tax credits to support $25 billion in local School Modernization
Bonds.
After-School Programs: Statistics provided by the General Accounting
Office (GAO), the National Institute on Out-of-School Time, and other
surveys show that the lack of affordable, accessible after-school
opportunities for school-age children means that an estimated eight
million and up to as many as 15 million ``latchkey children'' on any
given day go home to an empty house after school. Studies by the FBI and
youth-advocacy groups have found that the peak hours for juvenile crime
and victimization are from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m.-hours when youth are most
often without supervision. The 2001 appropriation provided $846 million,
compared with the Administration's request of $1.0 billion, to fund
after-school programs for approximately 1.3 million children. A
significant expansion of this program is necessary to meet the needs of
``latch-key'' children and their parents as well as providing every
child in a failing school the opportunity to receive extended learning
services.
National Security Investments: While the concerted efforts of the
Administration have increased the international affairs budget function
from its nadir in FY 1996, overall spending levels have decreased
significantly in real terms--almost nine percent since 1993, and over 19
percent since 1986. At the same time, the costs of pursuing U.S.
national interests overseas continue to increase, as we attempt to
adequately protect our diplomats overseas, continue efforts to encourage
peace in the Middle East and transitions to democracy in Eastern Europe
and the former Soviet Union, respond to increasingly severe man-made and
natural disasters, and increase efforts to control the global spread of
HIV/AIDS, stem the flow of drugs to our shore, and address other global
problems that directly impact our quality of life in the United States.
In order to meet these needs, the effort to gain bipartisan approval of
an international affairs budget that effectively and efficiently funds
our pursuit of these national interests should continue.
Since the terrorist bombings of two embassies in Africa in 1998, the
Administration has embarked upon an unprecedented program of security
initiatives around the world. The Administration initiated a long-term
capital program. Because it will take a multi-year effort to address
these vulnerabilities, advanced appropriations of $3.4 billion over the
2002 through 2005 period were proposed to sustain that program.
The leadership provided by the United States in seeking stability in
the Middle East serves our overall national interest, because conflict
in the region poses such significant threats to U.S. political,
economic, and security interests. As an integral part of the ongoing
effort to achieve a comprehensive Middle East peace agreement, there is
a pending request of $750 million in supplemental 2001 funding and an
additional $500 million in 2002 funding that has been recommended to
assist those countries and parties in the Middle East that undertake
constructive steps to move the process forward. It is imperative that
the United States continue forward with its efforts to bring the parties
together in a workable solution to this conflict, which could in turn
open the door to a final comprehensive peace agreement.
Current BEA Baseline Definitions and Estimates
The BEA established different estimating rules for the two major
categories of receipts and outlays: those controlled by authorizing
legislation (direct spending and receipts) and those controlled through
the annual appropriations process (discretionary spending).
Direct Spending and Receipts: Direct spending includes the major
entitlement programs, such as social security, medicare, medicaid,
Federal employee retirement, unemployment compensation, food stamps and
other means-tested entitlements. It also includes such programs as
deposit insurance and farm price and income supports, where the
Government is legally obligated to make payments
[[Page 213]]
under certain conditions. Receipts and direct spending are alike in that
they involve ongoing activities that generally operate under permanent
authority (they do not require annual appropriations), and the
underlying statutes generally specify the tax rates or benefit levels
that must be collected or paid, and who must pay or who is eligible to
receive benefits. The current services baseline assumes that receipts
and direct spending continue in the future as specified by current law.
In most cases, that is what will occur without enactment of new
legislation.
The BEA requires that current services estimates assume extension of
two types of authority. First, expiring provisions affecting excise
taxes dedicated to a trust fund are assumed to be extended at current
rates. During the projection period of 2001 through 2011, taxes
deposited in the Highway trust fund, Airport and Airways trust fund,
Aquatic Resources trust fund, and Leaking Underground Storage Tank trust
fund are scheduled to expire. The current services baseline assumes
extension of these taxes, increasing receipts by $287 billion over the
period. Second, direct spending programs that will expire under current
law are assumed to be extended if their 2001 outlays exceed $50 million.
Programs that will expire under current law but are extended throughout
the projection period include food stamps, farm price supports, child
nutrition programs, and temporary assistance to needy families (TANF).
Provisions of law not specifically covered by the two exceptions
discussed above are assumed to expire as scheduled in the current
services baseline.
Discretionary Programs: Discretionary programs differ in one important
aspect from direct spending programs--Congress usually provides spending
authority for discretionary programs one year at a time. The spending
authority is normally provided in the form of annual appropriations.
Absent appropriations of additional funds in the future, discretionary
programs would cease to exist after remaining balances were spent. The
BEA requires that the baseline assume that discretionary programs will
maintain program resources at the enacted level for the current year in
real terms throughout the projection period. The BEA also specifies that
non-pay funding be inflated using the GDP deflator and that pay-related
funding be inflated using the rate of growth in average wages for
private sector employees.
Current Estimates: The current services baseline surplus, as defined
by the BEA, is $256 billion in 2001 and $277 billion in 2002 under
current assumptions. Table IV-5 presents current services receipts,
outlays, and surpluses for the 10-year projection period. They are shown
on a unified budget basis. The table also shows the surplus separately
for off-budget social security and Postal Service, the Hospital
Insurance trust fund, and all other programs. The estimates are based on
the economic assumptions presented in Section II of this document, which
are summarized in Table IV-8.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-5. Current Services Estimates, 2000-2011
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2000 -------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2002-2006 2002-2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts.......................................................... 2,025 2,125 2,210 12,086 27,587
Outlays:
Discretionary:
Department of Defense (DOD)................................... 282 289 291 1,570 3,380
Non-DOD....................................................... 335 365 390 2,068 4,421
---------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary......................................... 617 654 682 3,637 7,801
Mandatory:
Social security............................................... 406 431 451 2,506 5,849
Medicare...................................................... 194 219 226 1,279 3,030
Medicaid...................................................... 118 129 143 845 2,135
All other..................................................... 231 225 239 1,304 2,957
---------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory............................................. 949 1,004 1,059 5,935 13,971
Net interest.................................................... 223 210 192 761 818
Total, outlays.................................................... 1,789 1,868 1,933 10,333 22,591
Surplus........................................................... 236 256 277 1,753 4,996
Social security and postal service.............................. 150 158 174 1,060 2,551
Medicare hospital insurance..................................... 30 27 35 218 532
Remaining on-budget............................................. 57 71 69 474 1,914
Memorandum:
Adjustments for expiring provisions and discretionary anomalies. ...... ...... -10 -86 -271
Resulting surplus............................................... 236 256 267 1,666 4,725
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Many other assumptions must be made in order to calculate the baseline
estimates. These include the number of beneficiaries who receive
payments from the major benefit programs and annual cost-of-living
adjustments in the indexed programs. Assumptions on baseline caseload
projections for the major benefit programs are shown in Table IV-9,
while assumptions about various cost-of-living adjustments are shown in
Table IV-8. It is also necessary to make assumptions about extension of
expiring programs and provisions, as discussed above, and other
important program parameters. These include assumptions about the timing
and substance of regulations that will be issued over the projection
period, the use of administrative discretion provided under current law,
and other assumptions about the way programs operate. Table IV-10
provides a list of many of these assumptions and their impact on the
baseline estimates. It is not intended to be an exhaustive listing; the
variety and complexity of Government programs are too great to provide a
complete list. Instead, some of the more important program assumptions
are shown.
Receipts. Table IV-6 shows baseline receipts by major source. Total
receipts are projected to increase by $85 billion from 2001 to 2002, and
by $1,224 billion from 2002 to 2011, largely due to assumed increases in
incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-6. Baseline Receipts by Source
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
--------------------------
2001 2002 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes...................... 1,061 1,097 1,766
Corporation income taxes..................... 212 214 277
Social insurance receipts.................... 688 725 1,145
Excise taxes................................. 71 74 96
Estate and gift taxes........................ 31 33 50
Customs duties............................... 21 23 36
Miscellaneous receipts:
Federal reserve deposits.................. 28 33 47
Other..................................... 11 11 17
--------------------------
Total, miscellaneous receipts............. 39 44 64
Total, governmental receipts................. 2,125 2,210 3,434
------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 215]]
Individual income tax receipts are estimated to increase by $36
billion from 2001 to 2002 under current law. This growth of 3.4 percent
is primarily the result of the effect of increased collections resulting
from rising personal incomes. Individual income taxes grow at an average
annual rate of 5.4 percent between 2002 and 2011. Corporation income
taxes under current law are estimated to increase by $2 billion, or 0.9
percent, from 2001 to 2002 due to higher corporate profits. These taxes
continue growing at an annual average growth rate of 2.9 percent from
2002 through 2011.
Social insurance receipts are estimated to increase by $36 billion
between 2001 and 2002 and by an additional $421 billion between 2002 and
2011. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total wages and
salaries paid, and scheduled increases in the social security taxable
earnings base from $80,400 in 2001 to $126,600 in 2011.
Excise taxes are estimated to increase by $25 billion from 2001 to
2011, in large part due to increased economic activity. Other baseline
receipts (estate and gift taxes, customs duties, and miscellaneous
receipts) are projected to increase by $58 billion from 2001 to 2011.
Outlays. Current services outlays are projected to grow from $1,868
billion in 2001 to $1,933 billion in 2002, a 3.4 percent increase.
Between 2002 and 2011, they are projected to grow at an average annual
rate of 3.5 percent. Outlays for discretionary programs increase from
$654 billion in 2001 to $682 billion in 2002, and to $876 billion in
2011, largely reflecting increases in resources to keep pace with
inflation.
Outlays for entitlement and other mandatory programs are estimated to
grow from $1,004 billion in 2001 to $1,059 billion in 2002, and to
$1,822 billion in 2011, due in large part to changes in the number of
beneficiaries and to automatic cost-of-living adjustments and other
adjustments for inflation. Social security outlays grow from $451
billion in 2002 to $756 billion in 2011, an average rate of 5.9 percent.
Over the same period, medicare and medicaid are projected to grow at
annual average rates of 6.6 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively,
outpacing inflation. Unemployment compensation also grows substantially
over the projection period. Spending on agriculture programs declines by
$7 billion from 2001 to 2002, reflecting the expiration of emergency
aid. Net interest payments to the public are estimated to decline over
the period, reflecting reduced borrowing by the Government resulting
from projected surpluses over the period. Toward the end of the period,
net interest payments turn negative reflecting earnings on excess
balances. Policy decisions will be required on the use of the surpluses
that are accumulated as excess balances.
[[Page 216]]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV-7. Change in Baseline Outlays by Category
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate Change from:
---------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2011 2001-2002 2002-2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discretionary:
Department of Defense (DOD)..................................... 289 291 383 2 91
Non-DOD......................................................... 365 390 493 25 103
---------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary........................................... 654 682 876 27 194
Mandatory:
Social Security................................................. 431 451 756 20 305
Medicare........................................................ 219 226 402 8 175
Medicaid........................................................ 129 143 303 14 160
Federal employee retirement and disability...................... 81 84 126 3 42
Unemployment compensation....................................... 22 26 48 3 22
Agriculture..................................................... 20 13 10 -7 -3
Undistributed offsetting receipts............................... -47 -51 -70 -4 -19
All other....................................................... 148 166 247 18 81
---------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory............................................... 1,004 1,059 1,822 55 763
Net interest...................................................... 210 192 -75 -18 -267
---------------------------------------------
Total, outlays.................................................... 1,868 1,933 2,623 64 691
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 217]]
Table IV-8. Summary of Economic Assumptions
(Dollar amounts in billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in
billions:
Current dollars............. 9,830 10,402 10,954 11,543 12,163 12,817 13,501 14,208 14,936 15,692 16,487 17,321
Real, chained (1996) dollars 9,244 9,569 9,876 10,192 10,518 10,855 11,198 11,541 11,883 12,227 12,582 12,946
Percent change, year over
year:
Current dollars............. 7.4 5.8 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Real, chained (1996) dollars 5.4 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9
Inflation measures (percent
change, year/year):
GDP chained price index....... 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Consumer price index (all 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
urban).......................
Unemployment rate, civilian 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
(percent)......................
Interest rates (percent):
91-day Treasury bills......... 5.6 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
10-year Treasury notes........ 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
Memorandum
Related programmatic
assumptions:
Automatic benefit increases
(percent):
Social security and veterans 2.4 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
pensions...................
Federal employee retirement. 2.4 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Food stamps................. 1.8 1.8 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Insured unemployment rate..... 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 218]]
Table IV-9. Beneficiary Projections for Major Benefit Programs
(Annual average, in thousands)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Federal family education loans.. 3,847 4,003 4,112 4,264 4,422 4,587 4,760 4,941 5,129 5,327 5,534 5,751
Federal direct student loans.... 1,902 2,053 1,960 2,031 2,105 2,182 2,263 2,348 2,436 2,527 2,623 2,724
Foster care and adoption 517 551 592 639 689 742 800 860 926 999 1,079 1,167
assistance.....................
Medicaid........................ 33,400 33,900 34,300 34,700 35,100 35,500 35,900 36,300 36,700 37,200 37,600 38,000
State Children's Health 2,100 2,600 2,900 3,200 3,300 3,000 2,900 2,700 2,600 2,400 2,500 2,500
Insurance Program..............
Medicare-eligible military ........ ........ ........ 1,617 1,646 1,666 1,684 1,701 1,717 1,724 1,727 1,740
retiree health benefits \1\....
Medicare:
Hospital insurance............ 39,131 39,581 40,016 40,493 41,028 41,601 42,232 42,985 43,879 44,820 45,723 46,791
Supplementary medical 37,254 37,673 38,007 38,377 38,803 39,255 39,760 40,361 41,124 41,946 42,714 43,550
insurance....................
Railroad retirement............. 682 664 645 626 609 593 578 565 553 542 534 527
Federal civil service retirement 2,372 2,387 2,408 2,432 2,459 2,488 2,518 2,544 2,567 2,590 2,613 2,636
Military retirement............. 1,950 1,964 1,977 1,990 2,000 2,010 2,018 2,026 2,034 2,039 2,044 2,049
Unemployment compensation....... 6,920 7,360 7,890 8,250 8,390 8,570 8,760 8,980 9,170 9,200 9,260 9,330
Food stamps..................... 17,163 17,481 18,156 18,703 18,822 19,019 19,247 19,476 19,692 19,812 19,877 19,973
Child nutrition................. 29,686 30,208 30,739 31,239 31,653 32,015 32,345 32,674 33,008 33,350 33,697 34,033
Supplemental security income
(SSI):
Aged.......................... 1,203 1,185 1,172 1,162 1,153 1,143 1,134 1,124 1,113 1,102 1,091 1,082
Blind/disabled................ 5,125 5,142 5,220 5,313 5,414 5,519 5,625 5,728 5,826 5,917 6,001 6,078
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, SSI............... 6,328 6,327 6,392 6,475 6,567 6,662 6,759 6,852 6,939 7,019 7,092 7,160
Child care and development fund 1,816 2,058 2,116 2,144 2,153 2,153 2,153 2,153 2,153 2,153 2,153 2,153
\2\............................
Social security (OASDI):
Old age and survivor insurance 38,205 38,860 39,201 39,546 39,914 40,361 40,860 41,400 42,019 42,823 43,797 44,802
Disability insurance.......... 6,559 6,741 6,982 7,262 7,599 7,963 8,342 8,730 9,116 9,471 9,782 10,104
Veterans compensation........... 2,607 2,632 2,681 2,720 2,750 2,773 2,784 2,790 2,790 2,782 2,767 2,744
Veterans pensions............... 635 610 587 568 550 535 522 510 501 493 486 481
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Mandatory funding of this program begins in 2003.
\2\ Includes mandatory child care entitlement to States, discretionary Child Care and Development Block Grant, and TANF transfers.
[[Page 219]]
Table IV-10. Impact of Regulations, Expiring Authorizations, and Other Assumptions in the Baseline
(In millions of dollars)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Category ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGULATIONS
Old age and survivors insurance
(OASI) and disabilty insurance
(DI):
Disabilty redesign prototypes 70 155 360 751 1,247 1,776 2,321 2,887 3,472 4,066 4,684
Ticket to Work and Self- ......... 2 2 3 -10 -20 -29 -41 -64 -101 -101
Sufficiency (767P)..........
Administrative procedures for -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
imposing penalties for false
or misleading statements....
Reduction of Title II 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23
benefits under family
maximum in cases of dual
enrollment..................
Trial work period............ 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 .........
Medicare, HI:
BIPA Codifying regulations... 2,780 5,035 3,180 3,330 3,460 3,160 2,670 2,640 2,790 2,910 3,080
BBRA Codifying Regulations... 2,675 2,210 1,019 665 477 660 633 649 676 NA NA
BBA 1997 Codifying -41,680 -49,460 -56,135 -62,905 -68,620 -74,130 -80,125 NA NA NA NA
Regulations.................
Disabilty redesign prototypes ......... 1 14 38 88 174 286 407 532 660 799
Medicare, SMI:
BIPA Codifying regulations... 2,030 3,260 3,900 4,520 5,680 6,705 7,165 7,555 8,140 8,700 9,450
BBRA Codifying Regulations... 3,943 2,992 1,624 468 210 289 255 265 275 NA NA
BBRA Administrative 800 930 1,150 1,510 1,790 1,860 2,060 2,240 2,450 NA NA
Clarification Codifying
Regulations.................
BBA 1997 Codifying 4,865 8,430 11,675 11,760 11,965 12,210 12,560 NA NA NA NA
Regulations.................
Disabilty redesign prototypes ......... 1 13 36 85 170 284 409 541 680 833
Medicare, HI and SMI:
Identification of potential 115 160 200 240 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
organ, tissue, and eye
donors......................
Medicare clinical trials 620 690 790 840 900 960 1,020 1,090 1,160 1,230 NA
expansion...................
Extending TRICARE coverage to ......... 110 330 380 410 440 460 490 520 550 NA
medicare-eligible military
retirees....................
Medicaid:
BIPA Codifying regulations... 220 650 -1,980 -2,910 -4,100 -4,970 -5,520 -6,080 -6,700 -7,100 -7,520
BBRA Codifying Regulations... 375 279 158 114 99 107 110 119 123 128 NA
BBA 1997 Codifying -660 -1,071 -1,628 -1,825 -1,985 -2,126 -2,350 NA NA NA NA
Regulations.................
SSI childhood disability -125 -135 -150 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
standard to implement
welfare reform (Medicaid
effect).....................
Removal of the 100 hour 140 160 175 190 210 225 245 265 285 NA NA
limitation on employment....
1902 (R) (2) regulation...... 40 125 220 230 245 255 270 280 295 310 325
Disabilty redesign prototypes 3 40 120 310 576 876 1,204 1,553 1,928 2,329 2,753
Medicare and Medicaid:
Net Medicaid and Medicare -9 -11 -13 -19 -38 -46 -60 -83 -89 NA NA
effects of upcoming SSA
regulation on the
substantial gainful activity
earnings threshold..........
Supplemental security income
(SSI):
Disabilty redesign prototypes 4 30 81 188 335 437 510 664 779 893 1,084
Ticket to Work and Self- ......... -1 3 4 -6 -16 -27 -36 -50 -65 -65
Sufficiency (767P)..........
[[Page 220]]
Title XVI cross-program -15 -15 -15 -40 -30 -15 -15 -15 -15 -20 -20
recovery (746P).............
Administrative procedures for -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
imposing penalties for false
or misleading statements....
Student earned income 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
exclusion...................
Veterans medical care:
Nursing home co-pays......... ......... -41 -82 -82 -82 -82 -82 -82 -82 -82 -82
Environmental Protection
Agency:
Pesticide registration fees.. ......... -25 -26 -27 -28 -30 -31 -32 -34 -35 -37
Pesticide tolerance fees..... ......... -40 -57 -43 -14 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
EXPIRING AUTHORIZATIONS
Provisions extended in the
baseline (effect of
extension):
Spending:
Child care entitlement to ......... ......... 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717 2,717
States......................
Child nutrition:
Summer food service program ......... ......... ......... 377 403 427 451 478 505 534 565
State administrative ......... ......... ......... 144 152 160 167 174 182 190 198
expenses..................
CCC commodity program ......... ......... 9,641 8,555 8,403 8,488 8,437 8,383 8,372 8,346 8,313
assistance..................
Compact of free association.. ......... ......... ......... 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 144
Food stamps:
Benefit costs.............. ......... ......... 18,187 18,983 19,951 20,939 21,875 22,913 23,853 24,797 25,698
State administrative ......... ......... 2,034 2,099 2,165 2,234 2,377 2,451 2,529 2,608 2,716
expenses..................
Employment and training.... ......... ......... 337 342 347 352 358 363 369 375 381
Other program costs........ ......... ......... 71 69 69 70 70 72 72 72 74
Nutrition assistance for ......... ......... 1,370 1,407 1,445 1,484 1,524 1,565 1,607 1,650 1,695
Puerto Rico...............
Food donations on Indian ......... ......... 75 76 78 79 81 83 84 86 88
reservations..............
The emergency food ......... ......... 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
assistance program
commodities...............
Fund for Rural America....... ......... ......... ......... 32 43 53 61 61 61 61 61
Future Agriculture and Food ......... ......... ......... 6 48 90 120 120 120 120 120
Systems initiative..........
NAFTA transitional trade ......... 30 60 69 70 72 73 74 76 78 79
adjustment assistance.......
Promoting safe and stable ......... 46 241 293 299 305 305 305 305 305 305
families....................
Temporary assistance for
needy families (TANF):
State family assistance ......... ......... 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489 16,489
grants (SFAG).............
SFAG to territories........ ......... ......... 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78
Bonus to reward high ......... ......... ......... 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
performing States.........
Bonus to reward decrease in ......... ......... 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
illegitimacy..............
Tribal work program........ ......... ......... 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Trade adjustment assistance.. ......... 282 323 355 367 378 390 402 415 428 441
Revenues:
Airport and airway trust fund ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 14,476 15,923 16,896 17,898
taxes \2\...................
Aquatic resources trust fund ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 310 318 324 331 337 344
taxes \2\...................
Highway trust fund taxes \2\. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 33,678 34,910 35,869 36,854 37,854 38,873
Leaking Underground Storage ......... ......... ......... ......... 104 211 214 221 225 229 235
Tank taxes \2\..............
[[Page 221]]
Provisions not extended in the
baseline (effect of extension)
\3\...........................
Spending:
Census: survey of program ......... ......... 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
dynamics....................
Civil service retirement:
Increased non-Postal agency ......... ......... -316 -373 -327 -287 -242 -192 -138 -76 -22
contributions for
employees of 1.51 percent.
Medicare, HI:
Reduction in PPS Capital ......... ......... -180 -220 -230 -240 -260 -270 -280 -290 NA
Payments (BBA 4402).......
Reduction in PPS Capital ......... ......... -130 -150 -160 -170 -180 -190 -190 -200 NA
Payments (BBA 4412).......
Medicare, SMI:
Medicare low income premium ......... ......... 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 NA
assistance................
Medicaid:
Emergency services for ......... 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 NA
undocumented aliens.......
Spectrum auction authority... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... -500 -500 -500
Veterans medical care: ......... ......... -120 -120 -120 -120 -120 -220 -220 -220 -220
pharmaceutical copay........
OTHER IMPORTANT PROGRAM
ASSUMPTIONS
Child support enforcement
(CSE):
Effect of hold harmless 10 10 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
payments to States..........
Effect of enhanced automated 32 13 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
system matching rates.......
Penalties for Family Support -148 -194 -100 -15 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Act systems and Statewide
Disbursement Unit
requirements................
Effect of enhanced rate of 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12
paternity testing...........
Food stamps:
Tax offset, recoupment, and -177 -177 -177 -177 -177 -177 -177 -177 -177 -177 -177
general claims collection...
Quality control liabilities.. -68 -72 -77 -76 -80 -87 -92 -96 -100 -104 -108
Allocation of administrative -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197 -197
costs between public
assistance programs.........
State incentive payments..... 42 46 47 49 50 52 53 55 56 58 60
Non-employment and training 90 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150
costs of BBA changes to work
requirement for able-bodied
adults without dependents...
Administrative actions to 15 25 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
promote employment and
training program............
Medicare: Medicare Integrity -10,660 -10,970 -11,290 -11,290 -11,290 -11,290 -11,290 -11,290 -11,290 NA NA
Program (MIP) \4\.............
Medicaid:
Home and Community Care for 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 NA NA NA
the Frail Elderly (Section
1929).......................
Financial management -171 -187 -204 -223 -244 -267 -291 -316 -343 -373 -405
recoveries..................
Vaccines for Children, total 775 796 792 784 821 853 796 813 819 844 844
program costs...............
[[Page 222]]
Personal Responsibility and -800 -1,650 -1,885 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Work Opportunity
Reconciliation Act of 1996..
Allocation of administrative 311 355 393 432 471 509 549 593 640 692 747
costs between public
assistance programs.........
48 Hour Maternity Stay....... 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NA NA NA NA
Adoption and Safe Families 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 NA NA NA NA
Act of 1997.................
SSI change in effective date 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 NA NA NA
for benefits (medicaid
effect).....................
HHS Inspector General: Audit -840 -980 -1,050 -1,050 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
and Investigative Recoveries..
State children's health 4,035 3,355 4,072 4,260 4,290 4,370 4,460 4,560 4,600 5,030 5,160
insurance program (Title XXI).
Approved Demonstrations: \5\
Medicare:
Costs.................... 1,314 3,499 5,835 5,523 86 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Replacement Benefits..... 1,328 3,528 5,879 5,565 88 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Medicaid:
Costs.................... 29,373 26,352 1,664 1,524 10 1 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Replacement Benefits..... 29,373 26,352 1,664 1,524 10 1 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Joint medicare and medicaid:
Costs.................... 2,234 2,308 2,337 2,307 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Replacement Benefits..... 2,052 2,115 2,144 2,107 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
OASI, DI, SSI:
Expansion of tax refund -44 -44 -44 -44 -44 -44 -44 -44 -44 -44 -44
offset to debts previously
written off (OASI, DI)......
Performance of continuing -485 -975 -1,425 -1,820 -2,260 -2,520 -2,735 -3,160 -3,480 -3,795 -4,235
disability reviews (baseline
levels) (OASI, DI, SSI).....
Collection of overpayments:
OASI....................... -981 -976 -973 -971 -971 -971 -971 -971 -971 -971 -971
DI......................... -335 -353 -361 -366 -368 -368 -368 -368 -368 -368 -368
SSI........................ -783 -822 -842 -851 -856 -856 -856 -856 -856 -856 -856
Debts written off as
uncollectable (no effect on
outlays):
OASI....................... 94 93 92 91 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
DI......................... 272 287 294 297 299 299 299 299 299 299 299
SSI........................ 526 488 450 412 374 374 374 374 374 374 374
DI:
Payments to states for 86 73 63 53 37 41 45 49 53 57 61
vocational rehabilitation.
Limitation on prisoner's -38 -38 -43 -46 -51 -57 -62 -66 -73 -78 -82
benefits..................
Research and demonstration 6 12 12 12 12 6 ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
projects..................
OASI: limitation on -16 -17 -18 -20 -22 -25 -26 -29 -31 -33 -35
prisoner's benefits.........
SSI:
Payments from states for -3,554 -3,660 -3,785 -3,914 -4,073 -4,168 -4,263 -4,387 -4,139 -4,647 -4,780
state supplemental
benefits..................
Payments for state 3,554 3,660 3,785 3,914 4,073 4,168 4,263 4,387 4,139 4,647 4,780
supplemental benefits.....
[[Page 223]]
Fees for administration of
State supplement:
Treasury share........... 150 152 153 155 157 159 160 162 164 165 166
SSA share................ 100 106 115 123 132 141 151 160 157 182 192
Research and demonstration 37 41 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
projects..................
Payments to states for 71 58 59 59 57 54 52 49 51 53 55
vocational rehabilitation.
Performance of non- -279 -221 -27 -17 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 ......... .........
disability
redeterminations..........
Ticket to work grant programs:
Infrastructure grant program. 16 25 30 35 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
Demonstration to maintain ......... 4 11 15 18 24 18 13 9 7 6
independence and employment.
TANF:
Transfers from TANF to SSBG.. 600 500 600 700 700 700 700 700 700 ......... .........
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.
\1\ Not shown on the table are medicare and medicaid regulations that have not been specifically priced.
\2\ Net of income offsets.
\3\ See Table 2 in this Section for a listing of additional expiring provisions.
\4\ These amounts reflect gross MIP savings that are not offset with MIP costs.
\5\ Estimates for demonstrations reflect Federal costs of the projects. Replacement benefits represent the program costs in the absence of the
demonstrations. The differences represent the net impact of the demonstration projects on the baseline. DoD Medicare Subvenstion demonstration is
reflected under BBA97 codifying regulations.
[[Page 224]]
Table IV-11. Baseline Receipts by Source
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Source 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes..................................... 1,004.5 1,061.3 1,097.1 1,139.4 1,188.3 1,250.3 1,319.6 1,396.8 1,479.4 1,568.4 1,663.6 1,765.7
Corporation income taxes.................................... 207.3 211.9 213.7 216.8 221.8 230.1 238.8 248.1 256.9 264.0 270.6 277.4
Social insurance and retirement receipts.................... 652.9 688.4 724.8 763.4 801.2 851.2 891.7 938.0 983.5 1030.8 1088.2 1145.3
Excise taxes................................................ 68.9 71.4 74.2 76.4 78.5 80.9 82.8 85.2 87.7 90.3 93.1 96.0
Estate and gift taxes....................................... 29.0 31.2 33.0 35.5 38.1 36.4 36.7 38.5 41.3 43.9 46.7 49.6
Customs duties.............................................. 19.9 21.4 23.2 24.4 25.0 26.1 27.6 29.1 30.4 32.7 34.2 35.9
Miscellaneous receipts:
Federal Reserve System deposit of earnings................ 32.3 27.9 32.6 33.4 34.8 36.4 37.9 39.5 41.4 43.3 45.2 47.2
Other..................................................... 10.5 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.8 13.3 14.2 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, miscellaneous receipts........................... 42.8 39.2 43.8 45.4 47.6 49.7 52.1 52.8 55.3 58.0 60.8 63.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, governmental receipts................................ 2,025.2 2,124.6 2,209.7 2,301.3 2,400.6 2,524.7 2,649.3 2,788.4 2,934.4 3,088.1 3,257.2 3,433.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 225]]
Table IV-12. Baseline Outlay Totals by Category
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Category 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlays:
Discretionary:
Defense................................................. 295.0 303.7 306.7 321.1 331.0 340.7 350.6 360.1 369.2 379.5 390.2 401.3
Non-Defense............................................. 322.0 350.5 374.9 388.7 397.5 408.0 418.3 429.8 441.7 452.7 464.9 474.7
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Subtotal, discretionary................................. 617.0 654.1 681.5 709.8 728.5 748.7 768.9 789.9 810.9 832.2 855.1 876.0
Mandatory:
Social Security......................................... 406.0 431.4 451.3 473.6 498.7 526.4 556.2 588.9 624.5 664.6 708.7 756.0
Medicare and Medicaid................................... 312.0 347.7 369.2 394.2 421.6 456.8 482.6 522.2 561.5 603.8 649.1 704.3
Means-tested entitlements \1\........................... 105.2 108.7 114.5 120.2 125.0 132.3 134.6 136.5 144.1 148.8 154.1 162.1
Other mandatory......................................... 125.5 116.2 124.2 122.8 129.3 147.9 153.5 160.3 172.6 182.8 192.4 199.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory..................................... 948.8 1,004.0 1,059.2 1,110.8 1,174.4 1,263.3 1,326.8 1,407.9 1,502.7 1,599.9 1,704.3 1,822.0
Net interest.............................................. 223.2 210.2 192.0 173.8 154.6 132.8 107.8 81.2 51.4 18.3 -19.3 -74.6
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Outlays............................................. 1,789.0 1,868.3 1,932.8 1,994.4 2,057.5 2,144.8 2,203.5 2,279.1 2,364.9 2,450.4 2,540.1 2,623.4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Food stamps, TANF/family support, SSI, child nutrition, EITC, veterans pensions, children's health insurance fund.
[[Page 226]]
Table IV-13. Baseline Outlays by Function
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military........................... 281.2 288.0 290.4 304.2 313.7 323.1 332.7 341.9 350.7 360.5 370.9 381.5
Other..................................................... 13.3 15.3 16.1 16.6 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense................................... 294.5 303.2 306.5 320.8 330.5 340.1 349.9 359.5 368.6 378.9 389.6 400.7
International affairs....................................... 17.2 15.5 18.7 18.4 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.4
General science, space, and technology...................... 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.9
Energy...................................................... -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 * -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4
Natural resources and environment........................... 25.0 27.5 29.7 30.7 31.4 32.2 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.0 37.0 38.0
Agriculture................................................. 36.6 25.5 18.8 15.5 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.1
Commerce and housing credit................................. 3.2 7.1 6.1 3.9 3.4 4.2 3.8 5.6 5.5 6.7 7.3 7.1
Transportation.............................................. 46.9 51.1 55.3 58.2 60.5 62.8 64.6 66.2 67.9 69.7 71.3 73.1
Community and regional development.......................... 10.6 10.6 11.5 11.7 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.2
Education, training, employment, and social services........ 59.4 66.1 76.7 80.5 81.5 83.3 85.5 87.8 90.4 92.9 95.7 95.8
Health...................................................... 154.5 172.9 190.5 208.6 224.6 241.7 259.7 279.4 300.6 323.1 348.9 373.9
Medicare.................................................... 197.1 222.1 229.8 244.2 257.8 278.0 287.8 309.9 330.2 352.4 375.3 407.0
Income security............................................. 247.9 258.3 272.4 285.7 297.2 312.2 322.9 333.1 349.3 361.6 375.4 392.9
Social security............................................. 409.4 435.0 454.9 477.3 502.5 530.3 560.3 593.1 628.9 669.2 713.4 760.9
Veterans benefits and services.............................. 47.1 45.3 50.8 53.3 56.0 61.0 60.6 60.3 64.8 67.8 69.9 72.1
Administration of justice................................... 28.0 29.4 32.4 33.1 35.3 36.2 37.1 38.3 39.5 40.8 42.2 43.6
General government.......................................... 13.2 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.3
Net interest................................................ 223.2 210.2 192.0 173.8 154.6 132.8 107.8 81.2 51.4 18.3 -19.3 -74.6
Allowances.................................................. ......... -0.1 -* 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget)........... -30.2 -31.3 -32.6 -36.2 -37.6 -39.2 -40.8 -42.4 -44.3 -46.1 -48.0 -50.0
Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget).......... -7.6 -8.3 -8.5 -9.2 -9.9 -10.7 -11.4 -12.2 -13.1 -14.0 -15.0 -16.2
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf........ -4.6 -6.1 -5.2 -4.5 -4.3 -4.1 -3.9 -3.8 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3
Sale of major assets...................................... ......... ......... ......... -0.3 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Other undistributed offsetting receipts................... -0.2 -1.6 -4.4 -9.7 -9.7 -1.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -* -* -*
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, Undistributed offsetting receipts.................. -42.6 -47.2 -50.7 -59.8 -61.4 -55.3 -56.8 -59.1 -61.7 -63.7 -66.5 -69.6
===================================================================================================================================
Total....................................................... 1,789.0 1,868.3 1,932.8 1,994.4 2,057.5 2,144.8 2,203.5 2,279.1 2,364.9 2,450.4 2,540.1 2,623.4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
[[Page 227]]
Table IV-14. Baseline Outlays by Agency
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch.......................................... 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9
Judicial Branch............................................. 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1
Agriculture................................................. 75.7 69.1 64.1 63.4 64.4 66.5 69.0 71.6 74.1 76.9 79.8 82.1
Commerce.................................................... 7.8 5.8 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.2
Defense--Military........................................... 281.2 288.0 290.4 304.2 313.7 323.1 332.7 341.9 350.7 360.5 370.9 381.5
Education................................................... 34.0 38.2 45.2 48.5 49.3 50.2 51.2 52.4 53.7 54.9 56.2 54.7
Energy...................................................... 15.0 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.5 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.8
Health and Human Services................................... 382.6 429.4 457.6 486.3 516.5 554.3 582.6 624.8 666.6 711.5 760.0 818.3
Housing and Urban Development............................... 30.8 37.2 35.1 35.3 34.5 35.0 35.6 36.5 36.9 37.2 37.9 38.7
Interior.................................................... 8.0 9.0 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2
Justice..................................................... 19.6 20.5 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.4 29.4
Labor....................................................... 31.4 35.0 39.6 43.1 44.8 47.3 50.0 52.9 56.0 58.2 60.6 63.2
State....................................................... 6.8 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.4
Transportation.............................................. 46.0 50.6 55.0 57.7 59.9 62.2 64.0 65.6 67.3 69.0 70.6 72.3
Treasury.................................................... 391.2 389.5 384.9 381.2 379.5 374.7 368.4 363.1 356.2 347.7 334.5 305.1
Veterans Affairs............................................ 47.1 45.2 50.7 53.2 55.9 60.9 60.5 60.2 64.7 67.7 69.8 72.0
Corps of Engineers.......................................... 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9
Other Defense Civil Programs................................ 32.9 34.4 35.4 38.2 39.3 40.5 41.6 42.9 44.2 45.4 46.7 48.0
Environmental Protection Agency............................. 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7
Executive Office of the President........................... 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Federal Emergency Management Agency......................... 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6
General Services Administration............................. * 0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
International Assistance Programs........................... 12.1 11.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0
National Aeronautics and Space Administration............... 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0
National Science Foundation................................. 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4
Office of Personnel Management.............................. 48.7 51.0 53.4 56.3 59.9 63.6 67.4 71.5 76.1 80.6 86.4 90.5
Small Business Administration............................... -0.4 -0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1
Social Security Administration.............................. 441.8 463.8 487.3 511.1 537.8 569.8 599.0 630.8 670.9 712.9 758.9 811.4
Other Independent Agencies.................................. 10.6 12.5 17.8 16.3 16.9 18.4 19.5 21.3 23.5 24.9 26.1 26.6
Allowances.................................................. ......... 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts........................... -172.8 -189.3 -204.4 -224.1 -240.5 -250.1 -269.2 -291.0 -314.5 -339.2 -364.4 -391.4
===================================================================================================================================
Total....................................................... 1,789.0 1,868.3 1,932.8 1,994.4 2,057.5 2,144.8 2,203.5 2,279.1 2,364.9 2,450.4 2,540.1 2,623.4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
[[Page 228]]
Table IV-15. Baseline Discretionary Budget Authority by Function
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Function 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense:
Department of Defense--Military........................... 287.7 296.1 306.0 314.4 323.2 332.2 341.5 351.1 361.1 371.3 381.9 392.8
Other..................................................... 13.4 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, National defense................................... 301.2 311.0 321.3 330.1 339.2 348.6 358.3 368.3 378.6 389.3 400.2 411.6
International affairs....................................... 23.5 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.3 27.9 28.6
General science, space, and technology...................... 19.2 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.9 24.4 25.0 25.6 26.2
Energy...................................................... 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5
Natural resources and environment........................... 24.7 28.8 29.7 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.1 37.2 38.3
Agriculture................................................. 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9
Commerce and housing credit................................. 7.1 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1
Transportation.............................................. 15.2 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.4 25.1 25.9
Community and regional development.......................... 13.7 11.0 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4
Education, training, employment, and social services........ 44.4 61.1 64.4 65.8 67.2 68.7 70.2 71.7 73.3 74.9 76.5 78.2
Health...................................................... 33.8 38.9 39.8 40.7 41.7 42.7 43.7 44.8 45.8 46.9 48.1 49.2
Medicare.................................................... 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3
Income security............................................. 30.0 39.5 44.1 45.6 47.0 48.5 49.7 50.8 52.0 53.2 54.6 55.9
Social security............................................. 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9
Veterans benefits and services.............................. 20.9 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.0 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.7 31.9
Administration of justice................................... 27.0 30.0 31.1 32.0 33.1 34.2 35.3 36.5 37.7 39.0 40.3 41.6
General government.......................................... 12.4 14.0 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.2
Allowances.................................................. ......... -0.6 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
===================================================================================================================================
Total....................................................... 586.6 636.5 662.9 680.6 699.4 718.5 738.2 759.4 780.8 802.4 824.6 847.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 229]]
Table IV-16. Baseline Discretionary Budget Authority by Agency
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
Agency 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch.......................................... 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8
Judicial Branch............................................. 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6
Agriculture................................................. 16.9 19.0 19.9 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.6
Commerce.................................................... 8.7 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4
Defense--Military........................................... 287.7 296.1 306.0 314.4 323.2 332.2 341.5 351.1 361.1 371.3 381.9 392.8
Education................................................... 29.4 39.9 42.7 43.6 44.5 45.4 46.4 47.4 48.4 49.4 50.5 51.5
Energy...................................................... 17.8 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.8
Health and Human Services................................... 45.5 53.9 55.2 56.5 57.8 59.2 60.7 62.2 63.7 65.3 66.9 68.6
Housing and Urban Development............................... 23.1 30.8 34.9 36.1 37.3 38.5 39.3 40.2 41.0 42.0 43.0 44.0
Interior.................................................... 8.5 10.2 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7
Justice..................................................... 18.8 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.9 24.6 25.4 26.3 27.1 28.0 28.9
Labor....................................................... 8.8 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8
State....................................................... 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.7
Transportation.............................................. 14.5 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.1
Treasury.................................................... 12.5 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.2
Veterans Affairs............................................ 20.8 22.4 23.3 24.1 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.7
Corps of Engineers.......................................... 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.0
Other Defense Civil Programs................................ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Environmental Protection Agency............................. 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.2
Executive Office of the President........................... 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Federal Emergency Management Agency......................... 3.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0
General Services Administration............................. -* 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
International Assistance Programs........................... 13.6 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1
National Aeronautics and Space Administration............... 13.6 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2
National Science Foundation................................. 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5
Office of Personnel Management.............................. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Small Business Administration............................... 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Social Security Administration.............................. 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.6
Other Independent Agencies.................................. 5.8 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.4 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.1
Allowances.................................................. ......... -0.6 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
===================================================================================================================================
Total....................................................... 586.6 636.5 662.9 680.6 699.4 718.5 738.2 759.4 780.8 802.4 824.6 847.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.