[Analytical Perspectives]
[Other Technical Presentations]
[19. Comparison of Actual to Estimated Totals for 1996]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]


[[Page 345]]

 
         19.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL TO ESTIMATED TOTALS FOR 1997

   The following three parts of this chapter compare the actual total 
receipts, outlays, and deficit for 1997 with the current services 
estimates \1\ shown in the FY 1997 Budget published in March 1996. The 
fourth part of this chapter shows additional details for a comparison of 
mandatory and related programs, and the final part reconciles actual 
receipts, outlays, and deficit totals for 1997 previously published by 
the Department of the Treasury with those in this budget.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ The current services concept is discussed in Chapter 16: ``Current 
Services Estimates.'' For mandatory programs and receipts the March 1996 
current services estimate is based on laws then in place. For 
discretionary programs the current services estimate is based on the 
prior year estimates adjusted for inflation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Receipts

  Receipts in 1997 were $1,579.3 billion, which is $77.8 billion greater 
than the current services estimate of $1,501.5 billion in the 1997 
Budget. As shown in Table 19-1, this increase was the net effect of 
legislative, administrative and regulatory changes; economic conditions 
that differed from what had been expected; and technical factors that 
resulted in different collection patterns and effective tax rates than 
had been assumed.

  Policy differences.--Seven major laws enacted after March 1996 
affected 1997 receipts: Tax Benefits for Members of the Armed Forces 
Performing Peacekeeping Services in Bosnia and Hercegovina, Croatia, and 
Macedonia; Taxpayer Bill of Rights 2; Personal Responsibility and Work 
Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996; Health Insurance Portability and 
Accountability Act of 1996; Small Business Job Protection Act; Airport 
and Airway Trust Fund Tax Reinstatement Act of 1997, and Taxpayer Relief 
Act of 1997. In total, these changes increased 1997 receipts by a net 
$48 million.
  Economic differences.--Differences between the economic assumptions 
upon which the current services estimates were made and actual economic 
performance accounted for a net decrease in 1997 receipts of $0.2 
billion. Increases in wages and salaries and non-wages sources of 
personal income were in large part responsible for the increase in 
individual income taxes of $1.5 billion. Increases in wages and salaries 
and proprietor's income relative to the budget forecasts were primarily 
responsible for the increase in social insurance and retirement receipts 
of $2.5 billion. Excise taxes were also above the budget forecast, in 
large part attributable to higher-than-estimated levels of nominal GDP. 
Lower-than-expected corporate profits reduced corporation income taxes 
$3.4 billion below the budget forecast, and lower-than-expected imports 
reduced customs duties by $0.8 billion.
  Technical reestimates.--Higher-than-anticipated collections of 
individual income taxes accounted for $75.0 billion of the $78.0 billion 
increase in 1997 receipts attributable to technical factors. Higher-
than-anticipated capital gains realizations than assumed in March 1996, 
and changes in the distribution of income among taxpayers, which caused 
effective tax rates to be higher than estimated in March 1996, were in 
large part responsible for the increase in individual income tax 
receipts. Different collections patterns and effective tax rates than 
assumed in March 1996 were primarily responsible for the higher-than-
anticipated collections of corporation income taxes of $5.1 billion. 
Most of the $1.0 billion increase in social insurance and retirement 
receipts reflected different distributions of income among taxpayers 
than had been assumed. Greater-than-anticipated holdings of taxable 
assets increased estate and gift taxes above the budget forecast by $2.8 
billion. Different distributions of imports and purchases among taxable 
products were in large part responsible for the increase in excise taxes 
and decrease in customs duties, respectively. Decreased deposits of 
earnings by

           Table 19-1.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL 1997 RECEIPTS WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES          
                                            (In billions of dollars)                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         Enacted                                                
                                            March     legislation/    Different  Technical     Net              
                                             1996    administrative   economic    factors     change     Actual 
                                           estimate      actions     conditions                                 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes.................     662.3          -1.3           1.5       75.0       75.2      737.5 
Corporation income taxes................     181.6          -1.0          -3.4        5.1        0.7      182.3 
Social insurance taxes and contributions     535.9            -*           2.5        1.0        3.5      539.4 
Excise taxes............................      52.0           3.6           0.6        0.7        4.9       56.9 
Estate and gift taxes...................      17.1   ..............         -*        2.8        2.8       19.8 
Customs duties..........................      21.1          -1.1          -0.8       -1.3       -3.2       17.9 
Miscellaneous receipts..................      31.4             *          -0.5       -5.5       -6.0       25.5 
                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total.................................   1,501.5             *          -0.2       78.0       77.8    1,579.3 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*$50 million or less.                                                                                           

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the Federal Reserve, attributable to lower-than-expected asset values on 
securities denominated in foreign currencies, and lower-than-expected 
contributions to the Universal Service Fund, accounted for most of the 
$5.5 billion decrease in miscellaneous receipts.

                                 Outlays

  Outlays for 1997 were $1,601.2 billion. This was $50.0 billion less 
than the $1,651.3 billion current services estimate in the 1997 Budget 
(March 1996).
   Table 19-2 distributes the $50.0 billion net decrease in outlays 
among discretionary and mandatory programs and net interest. The table 
also makes rough estimates according to three reasons for the changes: 
policy; economic conditions; and technical estimating differences, a 
residual.

  Policy changes are the result of actions by the Congress or the 
Administration that change spending levels, primarily through higher or 
lower appropriations or changes in authorizing legislation. For 1997, 
policy changes decreased outlays an estimated $10.6 billion relative to 
the initial current services estimates.
   Policy changes reduced discretionary outlays $3.9 billion because 
final appropriations were below the initial current services estimates. 
Policy changes decreased mandatory outlays $6.4 billion below current 
law. Most of this was the result of enacted legislation that imposed a 
special assessment on thrifts to capitalize the Savings Association 
Insurance Fund, expanded collections from auctions of the 
electromagnetic spectrum, and reformed food stamps, partially offset by 
increases in the Farm Bill. (Mandatory programs are mostly formula 
benefit or entitlement programs not normally controlled by annual 
appropriations.)
   Economic conditions that differed from those forecast in March 1996 
resulted in a net outlay increase of $3.6 billion. Outlays for mandatory 
programs decreased an estimated $4.1 billion, largely due to lower than 
expected unemployment rates, which in turn resulted in lower outlays for 
unemployment compensation and food stamps. Outlays for net interest 
increased an estimated $7.7 billion, largely due to higher than expected 
interest rates.
   Technical estimating differences and other changes result from 
changes in such factors as the number of beneficiaries for entitlement 
programs, crop conditions, higher asset sales from failed banks and 
thrifts, or other factors not associated with policy changes or economic 
conditions. Technical changes accounted for a net decrease of $43.1 
billion. The largest decreases were for Medicare, Medicaid, deposit 
insurance, and higher than expected revenues from the auction of 
spectrum licenses.

                                 Deficit

   The preceding two sections discussed the differences between the 
initial current services estimates and the actual amounts of Federal 
Government receipts and outlays for 1997. This section combines these 
effects to show the net impact of these differences on the deficit.

   As shown in Table 19-3, the 1997 current services deficit was 
initially estimated to be $149.8 billion. The actual deficit was $21.9 
billion, which was $127.8 billion less than the initial estimate. 
Receipts were $77.8 billion more than the initial estimate, and outlays 
were $50.0 billion less. The table shows the distribution of the changes 
according to the categories in the preceding two sections.
   The net effect of policy decreases for receipts and outlays decreased 
the deficit $10.6 billion.
   Economic conditions that differed from the initial assumptions in 
March 1996 accounted for an estimated $3.8 billion increase in the 
deficit. This was the combined effect of a decrease in receipts of $0.2 
billion and an increase in outlays of $3.6 billion. Technical factors 
decreased the deficit by an estimated $121.0 billion. This was due to an 
increase in receipts of $78.0 billion and a decrease in outlays of $43.1 
billion for technical estimating reasons.

Table 19-2.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL 1997 OUTLAYS WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES           
                          (In billions of dollars)                                            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      Current                  Changes                          
                                                     Services -----------------------------------------         
                                                      (March                                    Total    Actual 
                                                       1996)    Policy   Economic  Technical   changes          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discretionary:                                                                                                  
  Defense..........................................     270.9      -6.6  ........        7.4       0.8     271.6
  Nondefense.......................................     278.2       2.7  ........       -4.3      -1.6     276.6
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
     Subtotal, discretionary.......................     549.1      -3.9  ........        3.1      -0.8     548.3
                                                                                                                
Mandatory:                                                                                                      
  Deposit insurance................................      -4.6      -3.2  ........       -6.6      -9.8     -14.4
  Other programs...................................     867.7      -3.2      -4.1      -37.0     -44.3     823.4
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, mandatory............................     863.1      -6.4      -4.1      -43.6     -54.1     809.0
                                                                                                                
Net interest.......................................     239.1      -0.3       7.7       -2.5       4.9     244.0
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
    Total outlays..................................   1,651.3     -10.6       3.6      -43.1     -50.0   1,601.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Table 19-3.  COMPARISON OF THE ACTUAL 1997 DEFICIT WITH THE INITIAL CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES         
                             (In billions of dollars)                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      Current                  Changes                          
                                                     Services -----------------------------------------         
                                                      (March                                    Total    Actual 
                                                       1996)    Policy   Economic  Technical   changes          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------Receipts...........................................   1,501.5         *      -0.2       78.0      77.8   1,579.3
Outlays............................................   1,651.3     -10.6       3.6      -43.1     -50.0   1,601.2
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
  Deficit..........................................    -149.8      10.6      -3.8      121.0     127.8     -21.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------* indicates $50 million or less.                                                                                
Note: Deficit changes are receipts minus outlays. For these changes, a plus indicates a decrease in the deficit.

Comparison of the Actual and Estimated Outlays for Mandatory and Related 
                            Programs for 1997

   This section compares the original 1997 outlay estimates for 
mandatory and related programs under current law in the 1997 Budget 
(March 1996) with the actual outlays. Mandatory and related programs are 
programs with permanent spending authority that is generally controlled 
by authorizing legislation rather than by annual appropriations. Outlays 
for these programs depend primarily on eligibility criteria and benefit 
levels established in law, such as Social Security and Medicare benefits 
for the elderly, agricultural price support payments to farmers, or 
deposit insurance for banks and thrift institutions. This category also 
includes net interest outlays and undistributed offsetting receipts.
   A number of factors may cause differences between the amounts 
estimated in the budget and the actual outlays. For example, legislation 
may change benefit rates or coverage; the actual number of beneficiaries 
may differ from the number estimated; or economic conditions (such as 
inflation or interest rates) may differ from what was assumed in making 
the original estimates.
   Table 19-4 shows the differences between the actual outlays for these 
programs in 1997 and the amounts originally estimated in the 1997 
Budget, based on laws in effect at that time. Actual outlays for 
mandatory spending and net interest in 1997 were $1,053.0 billion, which 
was $49.2 billion less than the initial estimate of $1,102.2 billion, 
based on existing law in March 1996.
   Actual outlays for mandatory human resources programs were $876.5 
billion, $24.6 billion less than originally estimated. This decrease was 
the net effect of legislative action, differences between actual and 
assumed economic conditions, differences between the anticipated and 
actual number of beneficiaries, and other technical differences.
  Outlays for other functions were $18.7 billion less than originally 
estimated. Much of this decrease was for deposit insurance. 
Undistributed offsetting receipts were $10.8 billion higher than 
expected, largely due to higher-than-expected receipts from the sale of 
spectrum licenses.
   Outlays for net interest were $244.0 billion or $4.9 billion more 
than the original estimate. This increase was largely the effect of 
higher than assumed interest rates, partially offset by lower borrowing 
requirements due to lower than originally estimated deficits for 1996 
and 1997.

  Reconciliation of Differences with Amounts Published by Treasury for 
                                  1997

  Table 19-5 provides a reconciliation of the receipts, outlays, and 
deficit totals published by the Department of the Treasury in the 
September 30, 1997, Monthly Treasury Statement and those published in 
this budget. The Department of the Treasury made technical adjustements 
to the estimates for the U.S. Government Annual Report, which lowered 
receipts by $25 million and outlays by $676 million. Most of the 
revision was for the Postal Service and for the Federal Housing 
Administration in the Department of Housing and Urban Development. 
Additional adjustements made for this budget increased receipts by $341 
million and outlays by $316 million. Nearly all of this difference is 
the result of inclusion of transactions of the United Mine Workers of 
America benefit funds.

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Table 19-4.  COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED OUTLAYS FOR MANDATORY AND RELATED PROGRAMS UNDER CURRENT LAW  
                           (In billions of dollars)                                            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1997                  
-----------------------------------------
March 1996                             
                                                                          estimate       Actual        Change   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mandatory outlays:                                                                                              
  Human resources programs:                                                                                     
     Education, training, employment, and social services.............        13.5          13.7           0.2  
     Health:                                                                                                    
       Medicaid.......................................................       102.3          95.6          -6.7  
       Other..........................................................         4.5           5.3           0.8  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
       Total health...................................................       106.8         100.9          -5.9  
     Medicare.........................................................       193.1         187.4          -5.7  
     Income security:                                                                                           
       Retirement and disability......................................        75.7          75.7           0.1  
       Unemployment compensation......................................        24.7          20.6          -4.1  
       Food and nutrition assistance..................................        36.5          31.7          -4.8  
       Other..........................................................        65.2          63.5          -1.7  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, income security.......................................       202.0         191.4         -10.5  
     Social security..................................................       364.8         362.3          -2.6  
     Veterans benefits and services:                                                                            
       Income security for veterans...................................        19.9          20.4           0.5  
       Other..........................................................         1.0           0.3          -0.7  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total veterans benefits and services.........................        20.9          20.7          -0.2  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total mandatory human resources programs.....................       901.1         876.5         -24.6  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
   Other functions:                                                                                             
     Agriculture......................................................         3.7           5.0           1.3  
     Deposit insurance................................................        -4.6         -14.4          -9.8  
     Other functions..................................................         2.1          -8.1         -10.2  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, other functions.......................................         1.2         -17.5         -18.7  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
   Undistributed offsetting receipts:                                                                           
     Employer share, employee retirement..............................       -34.5         -34.3           0.2  
     Rents and royalties on the outer continental shelf...............        -3.1          -4.7          -1.6  
     Other undistributed offsetting receipts..........................        -1.6         -11.0          -9.4  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
       Total undistributed offsetting receipts........................       -39.2         -50.0         -10.8  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total, mandatory.............................................       863.1         809.0         -54.1  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
Net interest:                                                                                                   
   Interest on the public debt........................................       345.8         355.8          10.0  
   Interest received by trust funds...................................      -100.4        -105.0          -4.6  
   Other interest.....................................................        -6.3          -6.8          -0.5  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total net interest...........................................       239.1         244.0           4.9  
                                                                       -----------------------------------------
         Total outlays for mandatory and net interest.................     1,102.2       1,053.0         -49.2  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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            Table 19-5.  RECONCILIATION OF FINAL AMOUNTS FOR 1997                             
                            (In millions of dollars)                                            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                  Receipts   Outlays    Deficit 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Totals published by Treasury (September 30, 1997, Monthly Treasury Statement)..  1,578,977  1,601,595    -22,618
  Postal Service...............................................................  .........       -376        376
  Federal Housing Administration...............................................  .........       -308        308
  Other........................................................................        -25          8        -34
                                                                                --------------------------------
  Total adjustments, net.......................................................        -25       -676        650
                                                                                --------------------------------
Totals published by Treasury in U.S. Government Annual Report..................  1,578,951  1,600,919    -21,968
  United Mine Workers of America benefit funds.................................        339        339  .........
  Other........................................................................          2        -23         25
                                                                                --------------------------------
  Total adjustments, net.......................................................        341        316         25
                                                                                --------------------------------
Totals in the budget...........................................................  1,579,292  1,601,235    -21,943
                                                                                                                
                                  MEMORANDUM:                                                                   
                                                                                                                
Total change since September 30, 1997, Monthly Treasury Statement..............        315       -360        675
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------