[Analytical Perspectives]
[Budget Enforcement Act Preview Report]
[13. Preview Report]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]


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                       FEDERAL BORROWING AND DEBT

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                     13.  FEDERAL BORROWING AND DEBT

  Debt is the largest legally binding obligation of the Federal 
Government. At the end of 1997 the Government owed $3,771 billion of 
principal to the people who had loaned it the money to pay for past 
deficits. The gross Federal debt, which also includes the securities 
held by trust funds and other Government accounts, was $5,370 billion. 
This year the Government is estimated to pay around $249 billion of 
interest to the public on its debt.

  Although the present deficit is continuing to increase the amount of 
Federal debt held by the public, the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act 
of 1993 and the strong economic expansion have reduced the size of the 
deficit for five consecutive years, from $290 billion in 1992 to $22 
billion in 1997. Due to a favorable economic outlook and the Balanced 
Budget Act of 1997, the Administration estimates that the budget will be 
balanced in 1999. The small budget deficits and the surpluses beginning 
in 1999 will significantly decrease the debt held by the public as a 
percentage of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP). Despite the 
fact that the budget runs a small surplus in 1999, borrowing from the 
public is estimated to be $10 billion because of other factors besides 
the deficit that affect borrowing requirements. By 2001, however, debt 
repayment will begin as the surplus grows.

                          Trends in Federal Debt

  Federal debt held by the public has increased five-fold since 1980, as 
shown in Table 13-1. In 1980 it was $709.8 billion; by the end of 1997 
it stood at $3,771.1 billion. The data in this table are supplemented 
for earlier years by Tables 7.1-7.3 in Historical

             Table 13-1.  TRENDS IN FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC                             
                          (Dollar amounts in billions)                                          
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                Debt held by the public   Debt held by the public as   Interest on debt held by 
                             ----------------------------      a percentage of:       the public as a percentage
                                                         ----------------------------           of: \3\         
         Fiscal year             Current       FY 1992                     Credit    ---------------------------
                                 dollars     dollars \1\       GDP       market debt      Total                 
                                                                             \2\         outlays         GDP    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1950........................       219.0       1,210.1         80.1          55.3          11.4           1.8   
1955........................       226.6       1,097.4         57.3          43.3           7.6           1.3   
1960........................       236.8       1,019.5         45.7          33.8           8.5           1.5   
1965........................       260.8       1,049.0         38.0          26.9           8.1           1.4   
1970........................       283.2         946.2         28.1          20.8           7.9           1.5   
1975........................       394.7         969.5         25.4          18.4           7.5           1.6   
                                                                                                                
1980........................       709.8       1,197.4         26.1          18.5          10.6           2.3   
1981........................       785.3       1,206.0         25.8          18.5          12.0           2.7   
1982........................       919.8       1,319.3         28.6          19.8          13.6           3.1   
1983........................     1,131.6       1,551.4         33.1          21.9          13.8           3.3   
1984........................     1,300.5       1,716.6         34.1          22.1          15.7           3.5   
                                                                                                                
1985........................     1,499.9       1,913.9         36.6          22.3          16.2           3.7   
1986........................     1,736.7       2,154.7         39.7          22.6          16.1           3.6   
1987........................     1,888.7       2,277.4         41.0          22.3          16.0           3.5   
1988........................     2,050.8       2,389.9         41.4          22.3          16.2           3.5   
1989........................     2,189.9       2,448.4         40.9          22.0          16.5           3.5   
                                                                                                                
1990........................     2,410.7       2,588.0         42.4          22.6          16.2           3.6   
1991........................     2,688.1       2,767.0         45.9          24.1          16.2           3.7   
1992........................     2,998.8       2,998.8         48.8          25.6          15.5           3.5   
1993........................     3,247.5       3,163.9         50.2          26.5          14.9           3.2   
1994........................     3,432.1       3,265.0         50.1          26.6          14.4           3.1   
                                                                                                                
1995........................     3,603.4       3,342.0         50.1          26.5          15.8           3.3   
1996........................     3,733.0       3,384.1         49.6          26.1          15.8           3.3   
1997........................     3,771.1       3,345.0         47.3          25.2          15.7           3.1   
1998 estimate...............     3,796.8       3,305.0         45.5     ............       15.0           3.0   
1999 estimate...............     3,807.3       3,249.1         43.8     ............       14.3           2.9   
                                                                                                                
2000 estimate...............     3,811.7       3,186.0         42.1     ............       13.6           2.7   
2001 estimate...............     3,798.3       3,106.5         40.2     ............       13.1           2.5   
2002 estimate...............     3,722.1       2,978.6         37.7     ............       12.6           2.4   
2003 estimate...............     3,652.1       2,859.7         35.3     ............       11.7           2.2   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Debt in current dollars deflated by the GDP chain-type price index with fiscal year 1992 equal to 100.      
\2\ Total credit market debt owed by domestic nonfinancial sectors, modified to be consistent with budget       
  concepts for the measurement of Federal debt. Financial sectors are omitted to avoid double counting, since   
  financial intermediaries borrow in the credit market primarily in order to finance lending in the credit      
  market. Source: Federal Reserve Board flow of funds accounts. Projections are not available.                  
\3\ Interest on debt held by the public is estimated as the interest on the public debt less the ``interest     
  received by trust funds'' (subfunction 901 less subfunctions 902 and 903). It does not include the            
  comparatively small amount of interest on agency debt or the offsets for interest received by other Government
  accounts (revolving funds and special funds).                                                                 

[[Page 246]]

Tables, which is published as a separate volume of the budget.
  After the end of World War II, Federal debt peaked at 109 percent of 
GDP in 1946. From then until the 1970s, Federal debt grew gradually, 
but, due to inflation, it declined in real terms. Because of an 
expanding economy as well as inflation, Federal debt as a percentage of 
GDP decreased almost every year. With households borrowing heavily to 
buy homes and consumer durables, and with businesses borrowing heavily 
to buy plant and equipment, Federal debt also decreased almost every 
year as a percentage of the total credit market debt outstanding. The 
cumulative effect was impressive. From 1950 to 1975, debt held by the 
public declined from 80.1 percent of GDP to 25.4 percent, and from 55.3 
percent of credit market debt to 18.4 percent. Despite rising interest 
rates, interest outlays became a smaller share of the budget and were 
roughly stable as a percentage of GDP.
  During the 1970s, large budget deficits emerged as the economy was 
disrupted by oil shocks and inflation. The nominal amount of Federal 
debt more than doubled, and, despite high inflation, the real value of 
Federal debt increased by a fourth. Federal debt relative to GDP and 
credit market debt stopped declining after the middle of the decade.
  The growth of Federal debt held by the public accelerated during the 
early 1980s due to very large budget deficits. Since the deficits 
continued to be large until recently, debt continued to grow 
substantially. With inflation reduced, the rapid growth in nominal debt 
meant a rapid growth in real debt as well. The ratio of Federal debt to 
GDP rose from 26.1 percent in 1980 to 50.2 percent in 1993, the highest 
ratio since the mid-1950s. The ratio of Federal debt to credit market 
debt also rose, though to a much lesser extent, from 18.5 percent to 
26.5 percent. Interest outlays on debt held by the public, calculated as 
a percentage of both total Federal outlays and GDP, increased by about 
two-fifths.
  The growth of Federal debt held by the public has been decelerating 
more recently, and in 1997 it increased only 1.0 percent, the smallest 
rate since 1974. The amount outstanding has been declining since 1994 
relative to both GDP and total credit market debt. Table 13-1 shows that 
debt as a percentage of GDP is estimated to decline significantly more 
in the next few years, falling from 47.3 percent in 1997 to 35.3 percent 
in 2003. The improvement in the last few years reflects the deficit 
reduction package enacted by the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 
1993 and the long economic expansion. The further estimated improvement 
reflects the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 and the expectation that 
economic growth will continue at a steady pace without inflation for the 
foreseeable future.\1\ Interest outlays on the debt held by the public 
are estimated to decline substantially relative to both total outlays 
and GDP over the next few years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \1\ Chapter 1 of this volume, ``Economic Assumptions,'' reviews recent 
economic developments and explains the economic assumptions for this 
budget.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Debt Held by the Public, Gross Federal Debt, and Liabilities Other Than 
                                  Debt

  The Federal Government issues debt securities for two principal 
purposes. First, it borrows from the public in order to finance the 
Federal deficit. Second, it issues debt to Government accounts, 
primarily trust funds, that accumulate surpluses. By law, trust fund 
surpluses must generally be invested in Federal securities. The gross 
Federal debt is defined to consist of both the debt held by the public 
and the debt held by Government accounts. Nearly all the Federal debt 
has been issued by the Treasury and is formally called ``public debt,'' 
but a small portion has been issued by other Government agencies and is 
called ``agency debt.'' \2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \2\ The term ``agency debt'' is defined more narrowly in the budget 
than in the securities market, where it includes not only the debt of 
the Federal agencies listed in Table 13-3 but also the debt of the 
Government-sponsored enterprises listed in Table 8-10 at the end of 
Chapter 8 and certain Government-guaranteed securities.

  Borrowing from the public, whether by the Treasury or by some other 
Federal agency, has a significant impact on the economy. Borrowing from 
the public is normally a good approximation to the Federal demand on 
credit markets. Even if the proceeds are used productively for tangible 
or intangible investment, the Federal demand on credit markets has to be 
financed out of the saving of households and businesses, the State and 
local sector, or the rest of the world.\3\ Federal borrowing thereby 
competes with the borrowing of other sectors for financial resources in 
the credit market and affects interest rates. Borrowing from the public 
moreover affects the size and composition of assets held by the private 
sector and the perceived wealth of the public. It also affects the 
amount of taxes required to pay interest to the public on Federal debt. 
Borrowing from the public is therefore an important concern of Federal 
fiscal policy.\4\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \3\ The Federal sector of the national income and product accounts 
provides a better measure of the deficit for analyzing the effect of 
Federal fiscal policy on national saving than the budget deficit or 
Federal borrowing from the public. The Federal sector and its 
differences from the budget are discussed in chapter 18 of this volume, 
``National Income and Product Accounts.'' Also see chapter 6 of this 
volume, Part IV, the section on the analysis of saving and investment.
  \4\ Debt held by the public was measured until 1988 as the par value 
(or face value) of the security, which is the principal amount due at 
maturity. The only exception was savings bonds. However, most Treasury 
securities are sold at a discount from par, and some are sold at a 
premium. Treasury debt held by the public is now measured as the sales 
price plus the amortized discount (or less the amortized premium). At 
the time of sale, the value equals the sales price. Subsequently, the 
value equals the sales price plus the amount of the discount that has 
been amortized up to that time. In equivalent terms, the measured value 
of the debt equals par less the unamortized discount. (For a security 
sold at a premium, the definition is symmetrical.) Agency debt, except 
for zero-coupon certificates, is recorded at par. For further analysis 
of these concepts, see Special Analysis E, ``Borrowing and Debt,'' in 
Special Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 
1990, pp. E-5 to E-8, although some of the practices it describes have 
been changed. In 1997 Treasury began to sell a new type of instrument, 
inflation-protected securities. The recorded value of these securities 
includes a periodic adjustment for inflation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Issuing debt securities to Government accounts performs an essential 
function in accounting for the operation of these funds. The balances of 
debt represent the cumulative surpluses of these funds due to the excess 
of their tax receipts and other collections compared to their spending. 
These balances can be used in later years for future payments to the 
public. The interest on the debt compensates these funds--and the 
members of the public who pay earmarked taxes or user fees into these 
funds--for spending some of their collections at a later time than when 
they receive it. Public policy

[[Page 247]]

                             Table 13-2.  FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT \1\                             
                                            (In billions of dollars)                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                  Estimate                      
                                                     1997  -----------------------------------------------------
                                                    Actual    1998     1999     2000     2001     2002     2003 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financing:                                                                                                      
  Surplus or deficit (-).........................    -21.9    -10.0      9.5      8.5     28.2     89.7     82.8
    (On-budget)..................................   -103.3   -106.3    -95.7   -104.9    -94.1    -44.6    -62.8
    (Off-budget).................................     81.4     96.3    105.3    113.5    122.3    134.4    145.5
  Means of financing other than borrowing from                                                                  
   the public:                                                                                                  
    Changes in: \2\                                                                                             
      Treasury operating cash balance............      0.6      3.6  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......
      Checks outstanding, etc.\3\................      4.0     -2.2     -4.5  .......  .......  .......  .......
      Deposit fund balances......................     -0.4     -1.6       -*  .......  .......  .......  .......
    Seigniorage on coins.........................      0.5      0.4      0.7      0.7      0.7      0.7      0.7
    Less: Net financing disbursements:                                                                          
      Direct loan financing accounts.............    -21.0    -15.0    -15.4    -13.2    -15.4    -14.1    -13.4
      Guaranteed loan financing accounts.........      0.1     -0.9     -0.7     -0.5     -0.1     -0.1     -0.1
        Total, means of financing other than                                                                    
         borrowing from the public...............    -16.2    -15.7    -20.0    -13.0    -14.8    -13.5    -12.8
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
          Total, requirement for borrowing from                                                                 
           the public............................    -38.2    -25.7    -10.5     -4.4     13.4     76.2     70.0
   Change in debt held by the public.............     38.2     25.7     10.5      4.4    -13.4    -76.2    -70.0
                                                                                                                
Debt Outstanding, End of Year:                                                                                  
  Gross Federal debt:                                                                                           
    Debt issued by Treasury......................  5,336.5  5,514.5  5,710.1  5,888.7  6,052.9  6,178.8  6,313.4
    Debt issued by other agencies................     33.2     29.1     28.0     27.1     26.0     24.9     22.8
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, gross Federal debt..................  5,369.7  5,543.6  5,738.1  5,915.7  6,078.9  6,203.7  6,336.2
  Held by:                                                                                                      
    Government accounts..........................  1,598.6  1,746.8  1,930.8  2,104.0  2,280.6  2,481.6  2,684.1
    The public...................................  3,771.1  3,796.8  3,807.3  3,811.7  3,798.3  3,722.1  3,652.1
      Federal Reserve Banks......................    424.5  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......
      Other......................................  3,346.6  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......  .......
                                                                                                                
Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of                                                                    
 Year:                                                                                                          
  Debt issued by Treasury........................  5,336.5  5,514.5  5,710.1  5,888.7  6,052.9  6,178.8  6,313.4
  Less: Treasury debt not subject to limitation                                                                 
   \4\...........................................    -15.5    -15.5    -15.5    -15.5    -15.5    -15.5    -15.5
  Agency debt subject to limitation..............      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1
  Adjustment for discount and premium \5\........      6.6      6.6      6.6      6.6      6.6      6.6      6.6
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
    Total, debt subject to statutory limitation                                                                 
     \6\.........................................  5,327.6  5,505.6  5,701.2  5,879.8  6,044.0  6,169.9  6,304.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.                                                                                          
\1\ Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost entirely
  measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt is almost entirely     
  measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are measured at face value less  
  unrealized discount (if any).                                                                                 
\2\ A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) would be a means of financing the     
  deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding or deposit fund balances (which  
  are liabilities) would also be a means of financing the deficit and therefore would also have a positive sign.
\3\ Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability     
  accounts, allocations of special drawing rights, and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets other than the   
  Treasury operating cash balance, miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold.                    
\4\ Consists primarily of Federal Financing Bank debt.                                                          
\5\ Consists of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than    
  zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series securities.                           
\6\ The statutory debt limit is $5,950 billion.                                                                 

may deliberately run surpluses and accumulate debt in trust funds and 
other Government accounts in anticipation of future spending.
  However, issuing debt to Government accounts does not have any of the 
economic effects of borrowing from the public. It is an internal 
transaction between two accounts, both within the Government itself. It 
is not a current transaction of the Government with the public; it does 
not compete with the private sector for available funds in the credit 
market; it does not provide the account with resources other than a 
claim on the U.S. Treasury; and it does not represent the estimated 
amount of the account's future transactions with the public. For 
example, if the account records the transactions of a social insurance 
program, the debt that it holds does not represent the actuarial present 
value of expected future benefits. The future transactions of Federal 
social insurance and employee retirement programs, which own over four-
fifths of the debt held by Government accounts, are important in their 
own right and need to be considered separately. This can be done through 
information published in actuarial and financial reports for these 
programs.\5\ Debt held by the public is therefore a better concept than 
gross Federal debt for analyzing the effect of the budget on the 
economy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \5\ A summary of actuarial estimates for many of these programs is 
prepared annually by the Financial Management Service, Department of the 
Treasury, in ``Statement of Liabilities and Other Financial Commitments 
of the United States Government.'' The estimates in that report are not, 
however, all comparable with one another in concept or actuarial 
assumptions. Extensive actuarial analysis of the social security and 
medicare programs are published in the annual reports of the boards of 
trustees of these funds.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Debt securities do not encompass all the liabilities of the Federal 
Government. For example, accounts payable occur in the normal course of 
buying goods and services; social security benefits are due as of the 
end of the month but, according to statute, are payable as of the 
beginning of the next month; loan guarantee liabilities are incurred 
when the Government guarantees the payment of interest and principal on 
private

[[Page 248]]

loans; and liabilities for future pension payments are incurred as part 
of the current compensation for the services performed by Federal 
civilian and military employees in producing Government outputs. Like 
debt securities sold in the credit market, these liabilities have their 
own distinctive effects on the economy. Federal liabilities are analyzed 
within the broader conceptual framework of Federal resources and 
responsibilities in chapter 2 of this volume, ``Stewardship: Toward a 
Federal Balance Sheet.'' \6\ The different types of liabilities are 
reported annually in the financial statements of the major Federal 
agencies and in the Consolidated Financial Statements of the United 
States Government. \7\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \6\ The balance sheet in chapter 2 consolidates the Federal Reserve 
System with the rest of the Government, unlike the budget. As a result, 
the ``debt held by the public'' reported in that chapter, unlike the 
amounts reports in this chapter and elsewhere, is net of the Federal 
debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks.
  \7\ The Consolidated Financial Statements are published annually by 
the Financial Management Service, Department of the Treasury.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    Borrowing and Government Deficits

  Table 13-2 summarizes Federal borrowing and debt from 1997 through 
2003. In 1997 the borrowing from the public was $38.2 billion, and 
Federal debt held by the public increased to $3,771.1 billion. The 
issuance of debt to Government accounts was $149.6 billion, and gross 
Federal debt increased to $5,369.7 billion. In 1999, despite the fact 
that the budget runs a small surplus, borrowing from the public is 
estimated to be $10.5 billion. This is because of other factors besides 
the deficit that affect borrowing requirements. By 2001, however, debt 
repayment will begin as the surplus grows.
  Borrowing from the public depends both on the Federal Government's 
expenditure programs and tax laws and on economic conditions. The 
sensitivity of the budget to economic conditions is analyzed in chapter 
1 of this volume.

  Debt held by the public.--Table 13-2 shows the relationship between 
borrowing from the public and the Federal surplus or deficit. The total 
surplus or deficit of the Federal Government includes not only the on-
budget surplus or deficit but also the surplus or deficit of the off-
budget Federal entities, which have been excluded from the budget by 
law. Under present law the off-budget Federal entities are the social 
security trust funds (old-age and survivors insurance and disability 
insurance) and the Postal Service fund.\8\ Since social security had a 
large surplus in 1997 and is estimated to continue having large 
surpluses over the next few years, the off-budget surplus reduces the 
requirement for Treasury to borrow from the public by a substantial 
amount.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \8\ For further explanation of the off-budget Federal entities, see 
chapter 21, ``Off-Budget Federal Entities and Non-Budgetary 
Activities.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The Government's need to borrow from the public, or its ability to 
repay debt, depends on the size of the surplus or deficit and on several 
other factors such as the net financing disbursements of credit programs 
and changes in the level of cash balances held by the Treasury. As shown 
in Table 13-2, these other factors--which are formally called ``means of 
financing other than borrowing from the public''--can either increase or 
decrease the Government's borrowing requirements. (An increase in the 
borrowing requirement is indicated by a negative sign, like the deficit; 
a decrease is indicated by a positive sign, like the surplus.) In 1997 
the deficit was $21.9 billion and the other financing requirements were 
$16.2 billion, so the Government had to borrow $38.2 billion from the 
public. In 1999 the surplus is estimated to be $9.5 billion and the 
other financing requirements are estimated to be $20.0 billion, which 
will result in the Government borrowing $10.5 billion from the public. 
In 2001 and later years, the estimated surplus is larger than the other 
financing requirements, which will enable the Government to repay some 
of the debt held by the public.
  When the deficit or surplus is large, it is usually a good 
approximation to say that ``the deficit is financed by borrowing from 
the public'' or that ``the surplus is used to repay debt held by the 
public.'' Over the last 10 years, the cumulative deficit was $1,840 
billion and the increase in debt held by the public was $1,882 billion--
nearly equal amounts. When the deficit or surplus is small, however, as 
in 1997 through 2001, the other factors that affect borrowing may 
account for a large proportion of the change in Federal debt held by the 
public.
  Many of these other factors are small in most years compared to 
borrowing from the public, even when the deficit or surplus is 
relatively small. This is because they are limited by their own nature. 
Decreases in cash balances, for example, are inherently limited by past 
accumulations, which themselves required financing when they were built 
up.
  However, a new and larger factor that affects borrowing was created by 
the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990. Budget outlays for direct loans 
and loan guarantees consist of the estimated subsidy cost of the loans 
or guarantees at the time when the direct loans or guaranteed loans are 
disbursed. The cash flows to and from the public resulting from these 
loans and guarantees are not costs to the Government above and beyond 
those costs already included in budget outlays. Therefore, they are non-
budgetary in nature and are recorded as transactions of the non-
budgetary financing account for each credit program.\9\ The net cash 
flows of the financing accounts, including intragovernmental 
transactions as well as transactions with the public, are called ``net 
financing disbursements.'' They are defined in the same way as the 
``outlays'' of a budgetary account and therefore affect the requirements 
for borrowing from the public in the same way as the deficit or surplus.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \9\ The Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (sec. 505(b)) requires that 
the financing accounts be non-budgetary. As explained in chapter 21, 
``Off-Budget Federal Entities and Non-Budgetary Activities,'' they are 
non-budgetary in concept because they do not measure cost. For 
additional discussion of credit reform, see chapter 24 of this volume, 
``Budget System and Concepts and Glossary,'' and the other references 
cited in chapter 21.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The net financing disbursements are partly due to intragovernmental 
transactions with budgetary accounts (the receipt of subsidy payment and 
the receipt

[[Page 249]]

or payment of interest) and partly due to transactions with the public 
(disbursement and repayment of loans, receipt of interest and fees, 
payment of default claims, and so forth). An intragovernmental 
transaction affects the surplus or deficit and the net financing 
disbursements in equal amounts but with opposite signs, so there is no 
combined effect on Federal borrowing from the public. On the other hand, 
financing account disbursements to the public increase the requirement 
for borrowing from the public in the same way as an increase in budget 
outlays for cash payments to the public. Financing account receipts from 
the public can be used to finance the payment of the Government's 
obligations and therefore reduce the requirement for Federal borrowing 
from the public in the same way as an increase in budget receipts.
  The financing accounts initially either increased or decreased 
borrowing requirements by a very small amount, but beginning in 1995 the 
effect began to get large. They added $4.1 billion to borrowing 
requirements in 1995, $11.7 billion in 1996, and $20.9 billion in 1997, 
and they are estimated to add about $14-16 billion every year over the 
budget horizon. The expansion was mainly because of the growth of the 
direct student loan program. Since direct loans require cash 
disbursements equal to the full amount of the loans when the loans are 
made, Federal borrowing requirements are initially increased. Federal 
borrowing requirements are reduced when the loans are repaid. The 
temporary, very large net financing disbursements in 1997 were due to 
the direct loans made to finance the sales of various portions of the 
radio spectrum.

  Debt held by Government accounts.--The amount of Federal debt issued 
to Government accounts depends largely on the surpluses of the trust 
funds, both on-budget and off-budget, which owned 94 percent of the 
total Federal debt held by Government accounts at the end of 1997. In 
1999, for example, the total trust fund surplus is estimated to be 
$171.0 billion, and Government accounts are estimated to invest $184.1 
billion in Federal securities. The difference is because some other 
accounts hold Federal debt and because the trust funds may change the 
amount of their cash assets not currently invested. The amounts of debt 
held in major accounts and the annual investments are shown in Table 13-
4.

                               Agency Debt

  Several Federal agencies, shown in Table 13-3, sell debt securities to 
the public and to other Government accounts. During 1997, agencies 
repaid $1.4 billion of debt held by the public. Agency debt is only one 
percent of Federal debt held by the public.

  The reason for issuing agency debt differs considerably from one 
agency to another. The predominant agency borrower from the public is 
the Tennessee Valley Authority, which had $24.2 billion of securities 
outstanding at the end of 1997, or 93 percent of all agency debt held by 
the public. TVA debt was primarily sold to finance capital expenditures 
and to refund other is

                                            Table 13-3.  AGENCY DEBT                                            
                                            (In millions of dollars)                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       Borrowing or repayment (-) of            
                                                                                    debt                Debt end
                                                                     ---------------------------------  of 1999 
                                                                         1997       1998       1999     estimate
                                                                        actual    estimate   estimate           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Borrowing from the public:                                                                                      
  Housing and Urban Development:                                                                                
    Federal Housing Administration..................................        -14        --*  .........         68
  Interior..........................................................  .........  .........  .........         13
  Small Business Administration:                                                                                
    Participation certificates: Section 505 development company.....  .........  .........  .........          7
  Architect of the Capitol..........................................         -2         -2         -2        175
  Farm Credit System Financial Assistance Corporation...............  .........  .........  .........      1,261
  Federal Communications Commission:                                                                            
    Universal Service Fund \1\......................................         -4  .........  .........  .........
  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation:                                                                        
    FSLIC Resolution Fund...........................................        -32        -95  .........  .........
  National Archives.................................................         -4         -5         -5        276
  Tennessee Valley Authority........................................     -1,297       -848       -965     22,373
                                                                     -------------------------------------------
    Total, borrowing from the public................................     -1,352       -950       -972     24,174
                                                                     ===========================================
Borrowing from other funds:                                                                                     
  Postal Service Fund \2\...........................................       -508     -3,181        -83        634
  Tennessee Valley Authority \2\....................................  .........  .........  .........      3,200
                                                                     -------------------------------------------
    Total, borrowing from other funds...............................       -508     -3,181        -83      3,834
                                                                     ===========================================
    Total, agency borrowing.........................................     -1,861     -4,130     -1,055     28,008
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.                                                                                          
\1\ The Universal Service fund borrowed $4 million in 1996 and repaid the full amount in 1997. This transaction 
  was not previously classified as agency borrowing.                                                            
\2\ The Postal Service and TVA debt held by other funds is the result of the FFB swapping Postal Service and TVA
  securities with the Civil Service Retirement and Disability trust fund during 1996 in exchange for Treasury   
  securities having an equal present value. See the narrative for further explanation.                          

[[Page 250]]

sues of its existing debt. TVA debt held by other funds was primarily 
issued for the same reason.
  The Federal Housing Administration, on the other hand, has for many 
years issued both checks and debentures as means of paying claims to the 
public that arise from defaults on FHA-insured mortgages. Issuing 
debentures to pay the Government's bills is equivalent to borrowing from 
the public and then paying the bills by disbursing the cash borrowed, so 
the transaction is recorded as being simultaneously an outlay and a 
borrowing. The notes are therefore classified as agency debt. The 
borrowing by FHA and other agencies that have engaged in similar 
transactions is thus inherent in the way that their programs 
operate.\10\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \10\ The debt securities of the FSLIC Resolution fund and Department 
of the Interior were also issued as a means of paying specified bills. 
The budgetary treatment of these and similar securities is further 
explained in Special Analysis E of the 1989 Budget, pp. E-25 to E-26; 
and Special Analysis E of the 1988 Budget, pp. E-27 to E-28.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  The Universal Service fund has borrowed temporarily to meet operating 
needs. Under the Telecommunications Act of 1996, carriers that provide 
interstate telecommunications services are required to contribute funds, 
as prescribed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), to the 
preservation and advancement of universal service. The contributions are 
used to provide services eligible for universal service support as 
prescribed by the FCC. During 1996, $4 million more was spent than 
collected, so the Universal Service fund borrowed $4 million to pay the 
difference. It repaid this amount in 1997 and does not estimate future 
borrowing. These amounts were not previously recorded in the budget, but 
the debt in 1996 and the borrowing in 1996 and 1997 have been 
retroactively revised to include them.
  Some types of lease-purchase contracts are equivalent to direct 
Federal construction financed by Federal borrowing. Several years ago 
the Federal Government guaranteed the debt used to finance the 
construction of buildings for the National Archives and the Architect of 
the Capitol and has exercised full control over the design, 
construction, and operation of the buildings. The construction 
expenditures and interest were therefore classified as Federal outlays, 
and the borrowing was classified as Federal agency borrowing from the 
public. The securities used to finance the construction of the building 
for the Architect of the Capitol were zero-coupon certificates, for 
which the sales price was about one-fourth of par value. As an exception 
to the normal treatment of agency debt, but like Treasury zero-coupon 
bonds, the value of these certificates is measured as the sales price 
plus the amortized discount. The interest is accrued as an outlay.
  The proper budgetary treatment of lease-purchases was further examined 
in connection with the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. Several changes 
were made. Among other decisions, it was determined that outlays for a 
lease-purchase in which the Government assumes substantial risk will be 
recorded in an amount equal to the asset cost over the period during 
which the contractor constructs, manufactures, or purchases the asset; 
if the asset already exists, the outlays will be recorded when the 
contract is signed. Agency borrowing will be recorded each year to the 
extent of these outlays. The agency debt will subsequently be redeemed 
over the lease payment period by a portion of the annual lease payments. 
This rule was effective starting in 1991. However, no lease-purchase 
agreements in which the Government assumes substantial risk have yet 
been authorized or are estimated for 1998 or 1999. The budgetary 
treatment was reviewed in connection with the Balanced Budget Act of 
1997. Some clarifications were made but no substantive changes from 
existing practice.
  The amount of agency securities sold to the public has been reduced by 
borrowing from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). The FFB is an entity 
within the Treasury Department, one of whose purposes is to substitute 
Treasury borrowing for agency borrowing from the public. It has the 
authority to purchase agency debt and finance these purchases by 
borrowing from the Treasury. Agency borrowing from the FFB is not 
included in gross Federal debt. It would be double counting to add 
together (a) the agency borrowing from the FFB and (b) the Treasury 
borrowing from the public that was needed to provide the FFB with the 
funds to lend to the agencies.
  The debt of the agencies that borrow from the FFB is not subject to 
the statutory debt limitation. This enabled Treasury to raise additional 
cash to avoid default during the dispute with Congress over the budget 
and the debt limit two years ago. On February 14, 1996, FFB swapped most 
of its holdings of TVA and Postal Service debt to the Civil Service 
Retirement and Disability trust fund (CSRDF) in exchange for Treasury 
securities. The Treasury securities, which were subject to the debt 
limit, were canceled in an exchange that took place between the FFB and 
the Treasury immediately afterwards. This reduced the amount of debt 
subject to limit, which allowed Treasury to sell to the public more 
securities that are subject to the debt limit.
  The TVA and Postal Service securities acquired by CSRDF are included 
in gross Federal debt shown in Table 13-2, are included in Table 13-3 as 
amounts that agencies borrowed from other funds, and are included in 
Table 13-4 as agency debt held by Government accounts. Including debt 
held by Government accounts in gross Federal debt is not double 
counting, because Treasury did not have to borrow from the public in 
order for these accounts to buy the securities. Moreover, the TVA and 
Postal Service securities acquired by CSRDF replaced Treasury 
securities, which had been counted in gross Federal debt. It is assumed 
for purposes of the budget estimates that CSRDF will hold the agency 
debt until maturity (or call date), at which time the principal 
repayments will be invested in Treasury securities.\11\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \11\ For further discussion of the debt limit dispute and the swap of 
securities between the FFB and CSRDF, see Analytical Perspectives, 
Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1998, pp. 222 and 
225.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 251]]

                     Debt Held by Government Accounts

  Trust funds, and some public enterprise revolving funds and special 
funds, accumulate cash in excess of current requirements in order to 
meet future obligations. These cash surpluses are invested mostly in 
Treasury debt and, to a very small extent, in agency debt.
  Investment by trust funds and other Government accounts was around $10 
billion per year in the early 1980s. Primarily due to the Social 
Security Amendments of 1983, an expanding economy, and the creation of 
the military retirement trust fund, annual investment has risen greatly 
since then. It was $149.6 billion in 1997, as shown in Table 13-4, and 
it is estimated to rise to $184.1 billion in 1999. The holdings of 
Federal securities by Government accounts grow to $1,930.8 billion by 
the end of 1999, or 34 percent of the gross Federal debt. This 
percentage is estimated to rise further in the following years as the 
budget surpluses reduce the debt held by the public.

  The large investment by Government accounts is concentrated among a 
few trust funds. The two social security trust funds--old-age and 
survivors insurance and disability insurance--have a large combined 
surplus and invest an increasing total amount each year: $285.5 billion 
during 1997-99, which constitutes 59 percent of the total estimated 
investment by Government accounts.
  In addition to these two funds, the largest current investor is the 
civil service retirement and disability trust fund. It accounts for 19 
percent of the total investment by Government accounts during 1997-99, 
and the military retirement trust fund accounts for 4 percent. 
Altogether, the investment of social security and these two retirement 
funds comprises 83 percent of the investment by all Government accounts 
during this period. At the end of 1999, they are estimated to own 75 
percent of the total debt held by Government accounts. The hospital 
insurance trust fund, which invested heavily in the past, disinvested in 
1997 and is estimated to disinvest lesser amounts in 1998 and 1999.
  Technical note on measurement.--The Treasury securities held by 
Government accounts consist almost entirely of the Government account 
series. Most were issued at par value (face value), and the securities 
issued at a discount or premium have traditionally been recorded at par 
in the OMB and Treasury reports on Federal debt. However, there have 
recently been two exceptions. First, in 1991 Treasury began to issue 
zero-coupon bonds to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). 
Because the purchase price was a small fraction of par value and the 
amounts were large, the PBGC holdings were recorded at purchase price 
plus amortized discount. These securities were redeemed during 1994.
  Second, in September 1993 Treasury also began to subtract the 
unrealized discount on other Government account series securities in 
calculating ``net federal securities held as investments of government 
accounts.'' Unlike the discount recorded for PBGC or for debt held by 
the public, this discount is the amount at the time of issue and is not 
amortized over the term of the security. In Table 13-4 it is shown as a 
separate item at the end of the table and not distributed by account.

                       Limitations on Federal Debt

  Definition of debt subject to limit.--Statutory limitations have 
normally been placed on Federal debt. Until World War I, the Congress 
ordinarily authorized a specific amount of debt for each separate issue. 
Beginning with the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917, however, the nature 
of the limitation was modified in several steps until it developed into 
a ceiling on the total amount of most Federal debt outstanding. The 
latter type of limitation has been in effect since 1941. The limit 
currently applies to most debt issued by the Treasury since September 
1917, whether held by the public or by Government accounts; and other 
debt issued by Federal agencies that, according to explicit statute, is 
guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States Government.
  The lower part of Table 13-2 compares total Treasury debt with the 
amount of Federal debt that is subject to the limit. Most of the 
Treasury debt not subject to limit was issued by the FFB (Federal 
Financing Bank). It is authorized to have outstanding up to $15 billion 
of publicly issued debt, and this amount was issued several years ago to 
the Civil Service Retirement and Disability trust fund. The remaining 
Treasury debt not subject to limit consists almost entirely of silver 
certificates and other currencies no longer being issued.
  The sole type of agency debt currently subject to the general limit is 
the debentures issued by the Federal Housing Administration, which were 
only $68 million at the end of 1997. Some of the other agency debt, 
however, is subject to its own statutory limit. For example, the 
Tennessee Valley Authority is limited to $30 billion of securities 
outstanding (including its debt to the FFB, the Treasury, and other 
Government accounts).
  The comparison between Treasury debt and debt subject to limit also 
includes an adjustment for measurement differences in the treatment of 
discounts and premiums. As explained elsewhere in this chapter, debt 
securities may be sold at a discount or premium, and the measurement of 
debt may take this into account rather than recording the face value of 
the securities. However, the treatment differs between gross Federal 
debt (and its components) and the statutory definition of debt subject 
to limit. An adjustment is needed to derive debt subject to limit (as 
defined by law) from Treasury debt, and this adjustment is defined in 
footnote 5 to Table 13-2. The amount is relatively small: $6.6 billion 
at the end of 1997 compared to the total discount (less premium) of 
$76.6 billion on all Treasury securities.

  Methods of changing the debt limit.--The statutory debt limit has 
frequently been changed. Since

[[Page 252]]

               Table 13-4.  DEBT HELD BY GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS \1\                               
                            (In millions of dollars)                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Investment or disinvestment (-)   Holdings 
                                                                    ---------------------------------   end of  
                            Description                                 1997       1998       1999       1999   
                                                                       actual    estimate   estimate   estimate 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Investment in Treasury debt:                                                                                    
  Energy: Nuclear waste disposal fund..............................        938        805        938       7,992
  Health and Human Services:                                                                                    
    Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund \2\.........     68,041     85,623     93,392     746,460
    Federal disability insurance trust fund \2\....................     13,462     12,281     12,719      88,562
    Federal hospital insurance trust fund..........................     -9,184     -5,631     -3,095     107,895
    Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund.............      7,289      5,040        540      40,044
  Housing and Urban Development:                                                                                
    Federal Housing Administration mutual mortgage fund............      5,737      2,100      2,564      18,131
    Other HUD......................................................        621        -65        348       5,841
  Interior:                                                                                                     
    Outer Continental Shelf deposit funds..........................        122     -1,616        -10          70
    Abandoned Mine Reclamation fund................................        128        149        127       1,831
  Labor:                                                                                                        
    Unemployment trust fund........................................      8,031      8,783      7,750      78,456
    Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation...........................      1,227      1,285      1,247      10,292
  State: Foreign Service retirement and disability trust fund......        582        613        639      10,230
  Transportation:                                                                                               
    Highway trust fund.............................................      1,157      1,172     14,808      38,321
    Airport and airway trust fund..................................     -1,322      2,988      4,866      14,214
    Oil spill liability trust fund.................................        -18        -26        255       1,397
  Treasury: Exchange stabilization fund............................      3,607     -4,342      5,889      17,007
  Veterans Affairs:                                                                                             
    National service life insurance trust fund.....................         16        -88       -171      11,764
    Other trust funds..............................................         19         -7          1       1,732
    Federal funds..................................................         -8        -15        -16         532
  Defense-Civil: Military retirement trust fund....................      9,134      5,911      6,301     138,234
  Environmental Protection Agency:                                                                              
    Hazardous substance trust fund.................................       -498       -478      1,299       6,698
    Leaking underground storage tank trust fund....................          *         94        213       1,407
  International Assistance Programs:                                                                            
    Overseas Private Investment Corporation........................        249        118        183       2,837
  Office of Personnel Management:                                                                               
    Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund \3\.........     28,961     32,649     29,253     476,306
    Employees life insurance fund..................................      1,077      1,100      1,145      20,283
    Employees health benefits fund.................................     -1,396       -102        -55       6,630
  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation:                                                                        
    Bank Insurance fund............................................      4,143      2,017        945      29,291
    FSLIC Resolution fund..........................................      1,112        227        208       2,241
    Savings Association Insurance fund.............................      4,589        256        321       9,842
  National Credit Union Administration: Share insurance fund.......        188        166        201       4,039
  Postal Service fund \2\..........................................          *       -360  .........         500
  Railroad Retirement Board trust funds............................      2,117        186        176      19,601
  Tennessee Valley Authority.......................................       -951  .........  .........  ..........
  Other Federal funds..............................................      1,470         77        516       7,151
  Other trust funds................................................        817        485        642       8,164
  Unrealized discount \1\..........................................     -1,357  .........  .........      -7,000
                                                                    --------------------------------------------
  Total, investment in Treasury debt...............................    150,101    151,395    184,139   1,926,995
                                                                    ============================================
Investment in agency debt:                                                                                      
  Office of Personnel Management:                                                                               
    Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund \3\.........       -508     -3,181        -83       3,834
                                                                    --------------------------------------------
    Total, investment in agency debt...............................       -508     -3,181        -83       3,834
                                                                    ============================================
    Total, investment in Federal debt \1\..........................    149,593    148,214    184,056   1,930,829
                                                                    ============================================
                             MEMORANDUM                                                                         
Investment by Federal funds (on-budget)............................     23,051      2,778     13,471     117,027
Investment by Federal funds (off-budget)...........................          *       -360  .........         500
Investment by trust funds (on-budget)..............................     46,274     49,507     64,484     985,210
Investment by trust funds (off-budget).............................     81,503     97,905    106,111     835,022
Investment by deposit funds \4\....................................        122     -1,616        -10          70
Unrealized discount \1\............................................     -1,357  .........  .........      -7,000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.                                                                                          
\1\ Debt held by Government accounts is measured at face value except for the unrealized discount on Government 
  account series securities, which is not distributed by account. Changes in the unrealized discount are not    
  estimated.                                                                                                    
\2\ Off-budget Federal entity.                                                                                  
\3\ The investment in agency debt is the result of the FFB swapping Postal Service and TVA securities with the  
  Civil Service Retirement and Disability trust fund during 1996 in exchange for Treasury securities having an  
  equal present value. See the narrative in the section on agency debt for further explanation.                 
\4\ Only those deposit funds classified as Government accounts.                                                 

[[Page 253]]

1960, Congress has passed 68 separate acts to raise the limit, extend 
the duration of a temporary increase, or revise the definition.
  The statutory limit can be changed by normal legislative procedures. 
It can also be changed as a consequence of the annual congressional 
budget resolution, which is not itself a law. The budget resolution 
includes a provision specifying the appropriate level of the debt 
subject to limit at the end of each fiscal year. The rules of the House 
of Representatives provide that, when the budget resolution is adopted 
by both Houses of the Congress, the vote in the House of Representatives 
is deemed to have been a vote in favor of a joint resolution setting the 
statutory limit at the level specified in the budget resolution. The 
joint resolution is transmitted to the Senate for further action. It may 
be amended in the Senate to change the debt limit provision or in any 
other way. If it passes both Houses of the Congress, it is sent to the 
President for his signature. This method directly relates the decision 
on the debt limit to the decisions on the Federal deficit and other 
factors that determine the change in the debt subject to limit. Both 
methods have been used numerous times.

  Recent changes in the debt limit.--Major increases in the debt limit 
were enacted as part of the deficit reduction packages in the Omnibus 
Budget Reconciliation Acts of 1990 and 1993. Both changes in law were 
preceded by one or more temporary increases in the limit before 
agreement was reached on the debt and the deficit reduction measures 
together. Both increases in the debt limit were large enough to last 
over two years without a further change in law, the longest times 
without an increase since the period from 1946 to 1954.
  The debt again approached the limit in 1995, and the limit again 
became part of the larger issue of deficit reduction. During an extended 
period of dispute between the President and the Congress, the Treasury 
Department took a number of administrative actions to keep within the 
limit and the Congress passed two acts providing temporary exemptions 
from the limit. In March 1996, although agreement had not been reached 
on deficit reduction, Congress passed the Contract with America 
Advancement Act of 1996, one provision of which increased the debt limit 
from $4,900 billion to $5,500 billion. The President signed the bill 
into law on March 29.
  During 1997, unlike 1996, the President and the Congress reached 
agreement on a plan to balance the budget. This included a sufficient 
increase in the debt limit to accommodate Government finances for longer 
than possible under the limit enacted in the previous year, even though 
the amount of debt at that time was considerably under the limit. As a 
result, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, which the President signed into 
law on August 5, 1997, increased the debt limit to $5,950 billion.

  Federal funds financing and the change in debt subject to limit.--The 
change in debt held by the public, as shown in Table 13-2, is determined 
primarily by the total Government deficit or surplus. The debt subject 
to limit, however, includes not only debt held by the public but also 
debt held by Government accounts. The change in debt subject to limit is 
therefore determined both by the factors that determine the total 
Government deficit or surplus and by the factors that determine the 
change in debt held by Government accounts.

  The budget is composed of two groups of funds, Federal funds and trust 
funds. The Federal funds, in the main, are derived from tax receipts and 
borrowing and are used for the general purposes of the Government. The 
trust funds, on the other hand, are financed by taxes or other 
collections earmarked by law for specified purposes, such as paying 
social security benefits or grants to State governments for highway 
construction.\12\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \12\ For further discussion of the trust funds and Federal funds 
groups, see chapter 17, ``Trust Funds and Federal Funds.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  A Federal funds deficit must generally be financed by borrowing, 
either by selling securities to the public or by issuing securities to 
Government accounts that are not within the Federal funds group. Federal 
funds borrowing consists almost entirely of the Treasury issuing 
securities that are subject to the statutory debt limit. Trust fund 
surpluses are almost entirely invested in these securities, and trust 
funds hold most of the debt held by Government accounts. The change in 
debt subject to limit is therefore determined primarily by the Federal 
funds deficit, which is equal to the arithmetic sum of the total 
Government deficit and the trust fund surplus.
  Table 13-5 derives the change in debt subject to limit. In 1999 the 
Federal funds deficit is estimated to be $161.5 billion, and other 
factors increase the requirement to borrow subject to limit by $34.1 
billion. The largest other factor is the direct loan financing accounts. 
As explained in an earlier section, their net financing disbursements 
are excluded from the budget by law because they do not represent a cost 
to the Government, but they have to be financed and they are currently 
sizable. The next largest factor is investment in Treasury securities by 
revolving funds and special funds in the Federal funds group. As a 
result of all these factors, the debt subject to limit is estimated to 
increase by $195.6 billion, which is $185.1 billion more than the 
increase in debt held by the public.
  The budget deficit or surplus equals the sum of the Federal funds 
deficit or surplus and the trust fund deficit or surplus. The trust fund 
surplus is currently large, as it has been for a number of years, and is 
estimated to grow through 2003. The Federal funds, in contrast, as shown 
in Table 13-5, continue to have a deficit of more than $100 billion 
every year over this period. Mainly because of the Federal funds 
deficit, the increase in debt subject to limit is more than the increase 
in debt held by the public during 1997-2000, as can be seen by comparing 
the annual increase in debt sub

[[Page 254]]

Table 13-5.  FEDERAL FUNDS FINANCING AND CHANGE IN DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT               
                           (In billions of dollars)                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                               Estimate                         
                Description                    1997  -----------------------------------------------------------
                                             actual     1998      1999      2000      2001      2002      2003  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Federal funds surplus or deficit (-)......    -147.9    -158.7    -161.5    -164.6    -148.4    -111.3    -119.7
  (On-budget).............................    -148.0    -156.9    -160.6    -162.2    -147.9    -112.1    -121.4
  (Off-budget)............................         *      -1.7      -0.8      -2.4      -0.5       0.8       1.7
                                           =====================================================================
Means of financing other than borrowing:                                                                        
  Change in: \1\                                                                                                
    Treasury operating cash balance.......       0.6       3.6  ........  ........  ........  ........  ........
    Checks outstanding, etc.\2\...........       2.2      -0.9      -4.1  ........  ........  ........  ........
    Deposit fund balances\3\..............      -0.4      -1.6        -*  ........  ........  ........  ........
  Seigniorage on coins....................       0.5       0.4       0.7       0.7       0.7       0.7       0.7
  Less: Net financing disbursements:                                                                            
    Direct loan financing accounts........     -21.0     -15.0     -15.4     -13.2     -15.4     -14.1     -13.4
    Guaranteed loan financing accounts....       0.1      -0.9      -0.7      -0.5      -0.1      -0.1      -0.1
                                           =====================================================================
    Total, means of financing other than                                                                        
     borrowing............................     -18.0     -14.4     -19.6     -13.0     -14.8     -13.5     -12.8
                                                                                                                
Decrease or increase (-) in Federal debt                                                                        
 held by Federal funds and deposit funds                                                                        
 \4\......................................     -23.2      -0.8     -13.5  ........  ........  ........  ........
Increase or decrease (-) in Federal debt                                                                        
 not subject to limit.....................      -1.9      -4.1      -1.1      -0.9      -1.1      -1.1      -2.1
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, requirement for Federal funds                                                                          
   borrowing subject to debt limit........    -190.9    -178.0    -195.6    -178.5    -164.3    -125.9    -134.6
                                                                                                                
Adjustment for change in discount or                                                                            
 premium \5\..............................      -0.5  ........  ........  ........  ........  ........  ........
Increase in debt subject to limit.........     190.4     178.0     195.6     178.5     164.3     125.9     134.6
                                                                                                                
                 ADDENDUM                                                                                       
                                                                                                                
Debt subject to statutory limit \6\.......   5,327.6   5,505.6   5,701.2   5,879.8   6,044.0   6,169.9   6,304.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.                                                                                          
\1\ A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) would be a means of financing the     
  deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding or deposit fund balances (which  
  are liabilities) would also be a means of financing the deficit and would therefore also have a positive sign.
\2\ Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability     
  accounts, allocations of special drawing rights, and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets other than the   
  Treasury operating cash balance, miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold.                    
\3\ Does not include investment in Federal debt securities by deposit funds classified as part of the public.   
\4\ Only those deposit funds classified as Government accounts.                                                 
\5\ Consists of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than    
  zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series securities.                           
\6\ The statutory debt limit is $5,950 billion.                                                                 

ject to limit in Table 13-5 with the annual increase in debt held by the 
public in Table 13-2; and the debt subject to limit continues to 
increase during 2001-2003, even though the budget is in surplus and some 
debt held by the public is being repaid. In 2003, for example, when the 
budget has an $82.8 billion surplus and the debt held by the public 
decreases by $70.0 billion, the debt subject to limit increases by 
$134.6 billion.

                      Debt Held by Foreign Residents

  During most of American history the Federal debt was held almost 
entirely by individuals and institutions within the United States. In 
the late 1960s, as shown in Table 13-6, foreign holdings were just over 
$10.0 billion, less than 5 percent of the total Federal debt held by the 
public.

  Foreign holdings began to grow significantly starting in 1970. This 
increase has been primarily due to foreign decisions, both official and 
private, rather than the direct marketing of these securities to foreign 
residents. At the end of fiscal year 1997 foreign holdings of Treasury 
debt were $1,282 billion, which was 34 percent of the total debt held by 
the public. Foreign central banks owned 48 percent of the Federal debt 
held by foreign residents; private investors owned nearly all the rest. 
All the Federal debt held by foreign residents is denominated in 
dollars.
   Although the amount of debt held by foreigners grew greatly over this 
period, the proportion they own did not change much from 1972 until 
1995. In 1995 and 1996, however, foreign holdings increased by nearly 
$200 billion each year, which was more than the total Federal borrowing 
from the public. In 1997 foreign holdings increased by $252 billion, 
which was much more than the total borrowing from the public of $38 
billion.\13\ As a result, the Federal debt held by individuals and 
institutions within the United States decreased in absolute amount over 
the last three years, especially in 1997, when it decreased by $214 
billion; and the percentage of Federal debt held by foreign residents 
grew from 19 percent at the end of 1994 to 34 percent at the end of 
1997.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  \13\ The amounts reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 
Department of Commerce, were different, but similarly large, due to a 
different method of valuing the securities.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Foreign holdings of Federal debt are almost one-fourth of the foreign-
owned assets in the U.S. The foreign purchases of Federal debt 
securities do not measure the full impact of the capital inflow from 
abroad on the market for Federal debt securities. The capital inflow 
supplies additional funds to the credit market generally, which affect 
the market for Federal debt. For example, the capital inflow includes 
deposits in U.S. financial intermediaries that themselves buy Federal 
debt.

[[Page 255]]

                  Table 13-6.  FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF FEDERAL DEBT                                                     
                           (Dollar amounts in billions)                                                              
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Debt held by the public            Borrowing from the public         Interest on debt held by the   
                                              -----------------------------------------------------------------------               public              
                 Fiscal year                                                                                         -----------------------------------
                                                 Total   Foreign \1\  Percentage  Total \2\  Foreign \1\  Percentage                          Percentage
                                                                        foreign                             foreign   Total \3\  Foreign \4\    foreign 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1965.........................................     260.8        12.3         4.7        3.9         0.3          6.4        9.6         0.5          4.9 
1966.........................................     263.7        11.6         4.4        2.9        -0.7         n.a.       10.1         0.5          5.1 
1967.........................................     266.6        11.4         4.3        2.9        -0.2         n.a.       11.1         0.6          5.1 
1968.........................................     289.5        10.7         3.7       22.9        -0.7         n.a.       11.9         0.7          5.6 
1969.........................................     278.1        10.3         3.7       -1.3        -0.4         n.a.       13.5         0.7          5.3 
                                                                                                                                                        
1970.........................................     283.2        14.0         5.0        3.5         3.8        107.2       15.4         0.8          5.5 
1971.........................................     303.0        31.8        10.5       19.8        17.8         89.8       16.2         1.3          7.9 
1972.........................................     322.4        49.2        15.2       19.3        17.3         89.5       16.8         2.4         14.2 
1973.........................................     340.9        59.4        17.4       18.5        10.3         55.3       18.7         3.2         17.2 
1974.........................................     343.7        56.8        16.5        2.8        -2.6         n.a.       22.7         4.1         17.9 
                                                                                                                                                        
1975.........................................     394.7        66.0        16.7       51.0         9.2         18.0       25.0         4.5         18.2 
1976.........................................     477.4        69.8        14.6       82.2         3.8          4.6       29.3         4.4         15.1 
TQ...........................................     495.5        74.6        15.1       18.1         4.9         26.9        7.8         1.2         14.9 
1977.........................................     549.1        95.5        17.4       53.6        20.9         39.0       33.8         5.1         15.0 
1978.........................................     607.1       121.0        19.9       58.0        25.4         43.5       40.2         7.9         19.5 
1979 \5\.....................................     640.3       120.3        18.8       33.2        -0.7         n.a.       49.9        10.7         21.5 
                                                                                                                                                        
1980.........................................     709.8       121.7        17.1       69.5         1.4          2.0       62.8        11.0         17.5 
1981.........................................     785.3       130.7        16.6       75.5         9.0         12.0       81.7        16.4         20.1 
1982.........................................     919.8       140.6        15.3      134.4         9.9          7.4      101.2        18.7         18.5 
1983.........................................   1,131.6       160.1        14.1      211.8        19.5          9.2      111.6        19.2         17.2 
1984.........................................   1,300.5       175.5        13.5      168.9        15.4          9.1      133.5        20.3         15.2 
                                                                                                                                                        
1985 \5\.....................................   1,499.9       222.9        14.9      199.4        47.4         n.a.      152.9        23.0         15.1 
1986.........................................   1,736.7       265.5        15.3      236.8        42.7         18.0      159.3        24.2         15.2 
1987.........................................   1,888.7       279.5        14.8      152.0        14.0          9.2      160.4        25.7         16.0 
1988.........................................   2,050.8       345.9        16.9      162.1        66.4         40.9      172.3        29.9         17.4 
1989.........................................   2,189.9       394.9        18.0      139.1        49.0         35.2      189.0        37.1         19.6 
                                                                                                                                                        
1990 \5\.....................................   2,410.7       440.3        18.3      220.8        45.4         n.a.      202.4        40.3         19.9 
1991.........................................   2,688.1       477.3        17.8      277.4        37.0         13.3      214.8        42.0         19.5 
1992.........................................   2,998.8       535.2        17.8      310.7        57.9         18.6      214.5        40.5         18.9 
1993.........................................   3,247.5       591.3        18.2      247.4        56.1         22.7      210.2        41.1         19.6 
1994.........................................   3,432.1       655.8        19.1      184.6        64.5         34.8      210.6        44.5         21.1 
                                                                                                                                                        
1995.........................................   3,603.4       848.4        23.5      171.3       192.6        112.4      239.2        58.3         24.4 
1996.........................................   3,733.0     1,030.1        27.6      129.6       181.7        140.2      246.6        67.7         27.4 
1997.........................................   3,771.0     1,282.5        34.0       38.2       252.4        561.0      250.8        87.3         34.8 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Estimated by Treasury Department. These estimates exclude agency debt, the holdings of which are believed to be small. The data on foreign holdings 
  are not recorded by methods that are strictly comparable with the data on debt held by the public. Projections are not available.                     
\2\ Borrowing from the public is defined as equal to the change in debt held by the public from the beginning of the year to the end, except to the     
  extent that the amount of debt is changed by reclassification.                                                                                        
\3\ Estimated as interest on the public debt less ``interest received by trust funds'' (subfunction 901 less subfunctions 902 and 903). Does not include
  the comparatively small amount of interest on agency debt or the offsets for other interest on public debt received by Government accounts (revolving 
  funds and special funds).                                                                                                                             
\4\ Estimated by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. These estimates include small amounts of interest from other sources, including   
  the debt of Government-sponsored enterprises, which are not part of the Federal Government.                                                           
\5\ Benchmark revisions reduced the estimated foreign holdings of Federal debt as of December 1978 and increased the estimated foreign holdings as of   
  December 1984 and December 1989. As a result, the data on foreign holdings in different time periods are not strictly comparable, and the             
  ``borrowing'' from foreign residents in 1979, 1985, and 1989 reflects the benchmark revision as well as the net purchases of Federal debt securities. 
n.a. = Not applicable due to negative numbers or benchmark revision.                                                                                    

                       Federally Assisted Borrowing

  The effect of the Government on borrowing in the credit market arises 
not only from its own borrowing to finance Federal operations but also 
from its assistance to certain borrowing by the public. Federally 
assisted borrowing is of two principal types: Government-guaranteed 
borrowing, which is another term for guaranteed lending, and borrowing 
by Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The Federal Government also 
exempts the interest on most State and local government debt from income 
tax; and it insures the deposits of banks and thrift institutions, which 
themselves make loans.
  Federal credit assistance is discussed in Chapter 8, ``Underwriting 
Federal Credit and Insurance.'' Detailed data are presented in tables at 
the end of that chapter. Table 13-7 brings together the totals of 
Federal and federally assisted borrowing and lending and shows the 
trends since 1965 in terms of both dollar amounts and, more 
significantly, as percentages of total credit market borrowing or 
lending by domestic nonfinancial sectors. The Federal and federally 
assisted lending is recorded at the principal amount. It does not 
measure the degree of subsidy provided by the credit assistance, nor 
does it indicate the extent to which the credit assistance changed the 
allocation of financial and real resources. The estimates for GSE 
borrowing in 1998 and 1999 were developed by the GSEs based on certain 
assumptions but are subject to periodic review and revision and do not 
represent official GSE forecasts of future activity.

[[Page 256]]

  The Federal borrowing participation rate trended strongly upward from 
the 1960s to the early 1990s, though with cyclical variation. Much of 
the increase in the 1980s was due to higher GSE borrowing as well as 
Federal deficits. Since 1992, the Federal borrowing participation rate 
has declined, reaching 33 percent in 1997, despite large guaranteed 
borrowing in some years. The Federal lending participation rate has been 
smaller and more stable over time than the borrowing participation rate, 
primarily because in most years Federal direct loans have been much 
smaller than Federal borrowing.

                                     

Table 13-7.  FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED PARTICIPATION IN THE CREDIT MARKET                                                         
                          (Dollar amounts in billions)                                                                                  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                      Actual                                                        Estimates   
                                                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      1965     1970     1975     1980     1985     1990     1992     1993     1994     1995     1996     1997     1998     1999 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total net borrowing in credit market \1\..........................     66.7     88.0    169.2    336.8    823.3    716.0    525.1    576.4    600.1    709.0    701.0    631.7  .......  .......
                                                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Federal borrowing from the public.................................      3.9      3.5     51.0     69.5    199.4    220.8    310.7    247.4    184.7    171.3    129.6     38.2     25.7     10.5
Guaranteed borrowing..............................................      5.0      7.8      8.6     31.6     21.6     40.7     19.7     -2.0     38.7     26.2     89.9     57.8     88.1     85.4
Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing \2\.....................      1.2      4.9      5.3     21.4     57.9    115.4    150.8    169.3    121.1    125.7    141.5    112.8    198.1    172.2
                                                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, Federal and federally assisted borrowing.................     10.1     16.2     65.0    122.5    278.9    376.9    481.2    414.7    344.5    323.2    361.1    208.7    311.9    268.1
                                                                   =============================================================================================================================
Federal borrowing participation rate (percent)....................     15.1     18.4     38.2     36.4     33.9     52.6     91.6     71.9     57.4     45.6     51.5     33.0  .......  .......
                                                                   =============================================================================================================================
Total net lending in credit market \1\............................     66.7     88.0    169.2    336.8    823.3    716.0    525.1    576.4    600.1    709.0    701.0    631.7  .......  .......
                                                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Direct loans......................................................      2.0      3.0     12.7     24.2     28.0      2.8      7.0     -1.7     -0.8      1.6      4.0     12.8      5.5      6.9
Guaranteed loans..................................................      5.0      7.8      8.6     31.6     21.6     40.7     19.7     -2.0     38.7     26.2     89.9     57.8     88.1     85.4
Government-sponsored enterprise loans \2\.........................      1.4      5.2      5.5     24.1     60.7     90.0    145.2    162.3    125.3     68.2    161.2    107.9    200.9    155.5
                                                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Total, Federal and federally assisted lending...................      8.3     15.9     26.9     79.9    110.3    133.5    171.9    158.6    163.2     90.4    255.1    178.4    294.5    247.7
                                                                   =============================================================================================================================
Federal lending participation rate (percent)......................     12.4     18.1     15.9     23.7     13.4     18.9     32.7     27.5     27.2     12.8     36.4     28.2  .......  .......
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Total net borrowing (or lending) in credit market by domestic nonfinancial sectors, excluding equities. Credit market borrowing (lending) is the acquisition (loan) of funds other than     
  equities through formal credit channels. Financial sectors are omitted from the series used in this table to avoid double counting, since financial intermediaries borrow in the credit market
  primarily in order to finance lending in the credit market. Equities, trade credit, security credit, and other sources of funds are also excluded from this series. Source: Federal Reserve   
  Board flow of funds accounts. Projections are not available.                                                                                                                                  
\2\ Most Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) are financial intermediaries. GSE borrowing (lending) is nevertheless compared with total credit market borrowing (lending) by nonfinancial    
  sectors, because GSE borrowing (lending) is a proxy for the borrowing (lending) by nonfinancial sectors that the GSEs assist through intermediation. The GSEs assist the ultimate nonfinancial
  borrower by purchasing its loans from the initial, direct lender or by other methods, which they finance by issuing securities themselves in the credit market. Borrowing and lending include 
  mortgage-backed securities, because the GSEs assist nonfinancial borrowers through this type of intermediation as well as by types of intermediation that involve financial instruments       
  recognized on the GSEs' balance sheets. The data for this table are adjusted, with some degree of approximation, to remove double counting in calculating a consolidated total for Federal and
  federally assisted borrowing (lending): GSE borrowing and lending are calculated net of transactions between components of GSEs and transactions in guaranteed loans; GSE borrowing is also   
  calculated net of borrowing from other GSEs and purchases of Federal debt securities.