[Mid-Session Review]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
FY 1999 Mid-Session Review
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................. i
LIST OF TABLES.................................................... ii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................. 1
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS.............................................. 5
RECEIPTS.......................................................... 9
SPENDING.......................................................... 11
SUMMARY TABLES.................................................... 15
---------------------------------------------------------------
| |
| GENERAL NOTES |
| |
| 1. All years referred to are fiscal years unless otherwise |
| noted. |
| |
| 2. All totals in the text and tables display both on-budget |
| and off-budget spending and receipts unless otherwise |
| noted. |
| |
| 3. Details in the tables and text may not add to totals |
| because of rounding. |
| |
---------------------------------------------------------------
LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table 1. Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus.......................... 3
Table 2. Economic Assumptions.................................... 8
Table 3. Change in Receipts...................................... 9
Table 4. Change in Outlays....................................... 13
Table 5. Estimated Spending from 1999 Balances of Budget
Authority: Discretionary Programs..................... 15
Table 6. Outlays for Mandatory Programs Under Current Law........ 15
Table 7. Mandatory Pay-as-you-go Proposals....................... 16
Table 8. Effect of Proposals on Receipts......................... 19
Table 9. Budget by Category of Outlays and Receipts: Mid-Session
Review Versus February Budget......................... 22
Table 10. Receipts by Source...................................... 23
Table 11. Outlays by Agency....................................... 24
Table 12. Outlays by Function..................................... 25
Table 13. Discretionary Budget Authority by Agency................ 26
Table 14. Discretionary Budget Authority by Function.............. 27
Table 15. Federal Government Financing and Debt................... 28
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
After five consecutive years of declining deficits, the Federal budget
is about to pass another milestone. In fiscal year 1998, marking the
sixth consecutive year of improved fiscal balance, and the longest such
series in history, the Federal budget will achieve its first surplus in
29 years.
The Administration projects that the surplus for 1998 will be $39
billion, the largest surplus in dollar terms in all of U.S. history, and
the largest as a percentage of GDP since 1957. Furthermore, the
Administration's projections indicate that this budget surplus could
grow over the next four years to $148 billion by fiscal year 2002--part
of what would be the longest and largest (by any yardstick) sustained
debt reduction in our history.
These results are unprecedented, and are the fruits of years of fiscal
prudence, conservative economic forecasting, and unwavering discipline--
which in turn generated the economic strength of the last five years.
Last year's budget agreement is now putting the finishing touches on the
President's effort to restore the Nation's fiscal health, begun in 1993,
by bringing the era of exploding deficits to an end.
In his first budget, submitted in the Administration's first days in
1993, President Clinton confronted the then-record deficit with a
program of budget savings of $505 billion over five years--more than
half of which came from spending cuts. The President, with the support
of the Congress, saw the plan through to enactment--despite dire
predictions that this budget would send the economy into recession,
destroy jobs, raise interest rates, and ultimately undermine our fiscal
health.
The facts tell another story--a story of a virtuous cycle in which
deficit reduction caused interest rates to fall, and investment to boom,
leading to an unprecedented combination of sustained growth and falling
inflation. Some authorities have proclaimed today's economy as the best
ever.
Since 1993, spending levels have come in consistently below what this
Administration projected. In other words, we have achieved the spending
cuts that the President proposed, and more besides. In fact, actual
Federal outlays as a percentage of GDP have declined in every year of
this Administration. Indeed, actual outlays have constituted a smaller
share of the GDP in every year for which this Administration submitted a
budget than they were in any year under the two preceding
Administrations. There is no doubt that this Administration has
controlled the size of Government more effectively than its
predecessors.
While Government spending cuts have contributed substantially to
deficit reduction, strong revenue growth in the last few years has
helped enormously, and has occurred without an excessive tax burden. Tax
revenues have grown in substantial part because of the unprecedented
strength of the economy, caused by the President's 1993 program.
Typical taxpayers are clearly better off as a result. Real wages are
growing for the first time in a quarter of a century, the unemployment
rate is at its lowest since 1970, and the Federal income and payroll tax
burden on the median family is at its lowest in more than 20 years. The
stock market has leaped to record levels. And at the same time, the
lowest interest rates since the 1960s have helped families to buy new
homes and other durables more cheaply.
In 1993, the President pledged to cut the deficit in half by 1998; in
fact, he eliminated it entirely. Then, in 1997, the President pledged to
balance the budget by 2002; in fact, he was able to meet and surpass
that goal this year.
This fact means that the President's call in his State of the Union
address to save Social Security First has become even more timely. We
have solved the structural deficit, and thereby built the necessary
groundwork to eliminate the generational deficit that remains. Six years
ago, the most sanguine observer would have expected the Federal
Government today would still be grappling with a serious budget deficit.
Instead, we now can--if we so choose--address the watershed issue of
Social Security soundness in a timely fashion, and from a position of
fiscal strength.
Thus, we must maintain the President's course to save Social Security
First, and defer any discussions of using any of the budget surplus for
any other purpose until we have saved Social Security for the next
century. We must not set our budget and our economy back by another
quarter of a century through the fiscal improvidence of dissipating the
first budget surplus in so many years.
Table 1. RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND SURPLUS
(Dollar amounts in billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February Budget estimate:
Receipts................................ 1,658 1,743 1,794 1,863 1,949 2,028 2,123 2,227 2,329 2,444 2,566
Outlays................................. 1,668 1,733 1,785 1,834 1,860 1,945 2,011 2,088 2,162 2,225 2,304
Surplus Reserved Pending Social Security
Reform................................. NA 10 9 28 90 83 111 139 167 219 261
Deficit (-)/Surplus..................... -10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mid-Session estimate:
Receipts................................ 1,704 1,784 1,835 1,902 1,990 2,072 2,170 2,272 2,375 2,490 2,609
Outlays................................. 1,665 1,730 1,774 1,820 1,843 1,922 1,986 2,059 2,130 2,190 2,267
Surplus Reserved Pending Social Security
Reform................................. 39 54 61 83 148 150 184 213 245 300 342
Surplus................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Memorandum:
Mid-Session estimates as a percent of
GDP:
Receipts.............................. 20.4 20.5 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.1
Outlays............................... 19.9 19.9 19.6 19.2 18.6 18.6 18.3 18.2 17.9 17.6 17.5
Surplus Reserved Pending Social
Security Reform...................... 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6
Surplus............................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Introduction
The Nation's overall economic performance, the best in over a
generation, is getting even better. Strong economic growth last year has
been followed by even stronger growth so far this year. Job
opportunities are plentiful and payrolls continue to expand. The
unemployment rate has fallen further this year, dropping to the lowest
level in nearly three decades. Despite rapid growth and low
unemployment, inflation has declined to rates not seen since the 1960s.
The ``Misery Index''--the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates--
is at its lowest level in over 30 years.
In this extraordinary economic environment, optimism abounds. Consumer
surveys reveal the highest level of confidence in at least three
decades. Businesses are confident in the future and are spending heavily
on new capacity-augmenting plant and equipment. Investors continue to
propel equity markets to record highs. On foreign exchange markets,
confidence in the U.S. economy has pushed the value of the dollar to its
highest level in nearly a decade.
This remarkable performance has been fostered by prudent fiscal and
monetary polices. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 and last
summer's Balanced Budget Act ended years of growing budget deficits and
began an era of surpluses. The budget balance has swung from a $290
billion deficit in 1992 to an estimated $39 billion surplus this year.
Based on Administration policies, the surplus would grow to $342 billion
by 2008.
Monetary policy has succeeded in gradually reducing inflation without
sacrificing economic growth. The Federal Reserve has tightened monetary
policy when inflationary pressures appeared to be building and relaxed
policy when growth and inflationary pressures eased. Since January 1996,
monetary policy has been basically unchanged.
The sound fiscal and monetary policies now in place, along with the
highly favorable economic trends underway, will enable the expansion to
extend its outstanding record of sustained growth, strong job creation,
low unemployment and low inflation. The expansion that began in April
1991 has just entered its eighth year. By December, it will become the
second longest of all time, and the longest in peacetime. If the economy
continues to grow through February 2000, as most forecasters anticipate,
this expansion will become the longest on record.
Recent Developments
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at a robust 4.2 percent
annual rate in the first quarter, following a 3.7 percent advance during
the four quarters of 1997. Growth was led by consumer spending,
residential investment, and business investment in equipment, offset to
some extent by a decline in Federal Government spending and a
significant widening of the net export deficit. The larger foreign
sector deficit subtracted nearly two percentage points from first
quarter growth, due in part to a sharp decline of exports to Asian
countries severely weakened by currency and other crises.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at just a 0.9 percent annual rate
during the first four months of this year, down from a 1.7 percent
advance during 1997. The GDP chain-weighted price index rose at only a
0.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the smallest advance since
1963. This measure, which includes the prices of exports and subtracts
the prices of imports, reflects the prices of goods and services
produced in the United States but sold anywhere. A better measure of the
prices of goods and services we buy is the price index for gross
domestic purchases, which includes the prices paid by consumers,
businesses and government for all their purchases, whether produced here
or abroad. By this measure, for the first time since 1954, there was no
inflation at all. Low inflation across a wide spectrum of the economy
reflects intense competition from both domestic and foreign suppliers.
In addition, energy, food and quality-adjusted computer prices fell
sharply in the first quarter.
During the first four months of this year, the Nation's payrolls rose
by 900,000 jobs. The healthy pace of job creation helped pull the
unemployment rate down to 4.3 percent in April, the lowest level since
February 1970. The employment-population ratio set a record high this
year at 64.2 percent. All demographic groups have benefited from the
robust labor market. Unemployment rates for key groups are at the lowest
level in a quarter century or more.
Despite strong growth, short-term interest rates edged down this year,
and long-term rates have remained on a low plateau. The three-month
Treasury bill rate was 5.0 percent in mid-May, about 20 basis points
lower than in December, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield was just
under six percent, close to its December level.
Revised Economic Assumptions
The economic assumptions underlying the Mid-Session Review are similar
to those in the February Budget. The Administration, like most
forecasters, expects a moderation in the pace of economic activity
beginning with the current quarter. In part, more moderate growth this
year is expected to result from a further widening of our net export
balance because of the adjustments underway in Asian economies, the rise
in the dollar in recent years, and the faster U.S. economic growth
relative to that of our trading partners. Beyond this year, the growth
moderation reflects the view that at current low levels of unemployment,
growth cannot be maintained at its recent rapid pace without creating
strong inflationary pressures. This view is consistent with mainstream
empirical economic research. Although the economy might perform even
better than this, it is prudent to base budget estimates on
conservative, conventional assumptions.
The Administration's economic assumptions project real GDP to grow 2.0
percent per year for the next three years. During the following six
years, growth is expected to average 2.4 percent per year --the
Administration's estimate of the long-run, sustainable noninflationary
growth rate of the economy. Potential GDP growth of 2.4 percent annually
can be divided into a 1.3 percent trend growth of productivity and a 1.1
percent trend growth of the labor force. During 1999-2000, potential
growth may be 0.1 percentage point faster, in part because welfare
reform may boost labor force growth slightly. During 2008, potential
growth is projected to be 2.3 percent because of an anticipated slower
growth of the workforce as the first wave of the baby-boom generation
enters retirement.
Real GDP growth of two percent per year is consistent with a gradual
rise in the unemployment rate of about one-quarter percentage point per
year during the next three years. Beginning in mid-2000, the
unemployment rate is projected to remain at 5.4 percent, the
Administration's estimate of the rate consistent with stable inflation.
The inflation projection is similar to that of the FY 1999 Budget,
although inflation during 1998 has been revised downward to reflect the
recent very favorable performance. During the next few years, when the
unemployment rate is below 5.4 percent, inflation is projected to creep
up gradually to rates that are more typical of the last few years. The
GDP chain-weighted price index is projected to rise 2.2 percent during
the year 2000 and each year thereafter. The Consumer Price Index is
projected to rise 2.3 percent per year beginning in the year 2000. These
rates are about one-half percentage point higher than during 1997.
The inflation projections incorporate recent and prospective
methodological improvements in the measurement of the Consumer Price
Index. A very important change that will be instituted beginning in
January 1999 is the use of geometric means, rather than arithmetic
means, for most lower level aggregation. This improvement is expected to
slow the annual growth of the CPI by 0.2 percentage point. The
cumulative effect of all the improvements is estimated to result in a
0.7 percentage point slower annual rise in the CPI by 1999 and beyond
relative to the methodology in use at the end of 1994. (For further
details, see Analytical Perspectives, FY 1999 Budget, page 6.)
The Administration's estimate of potential GDP growth incorporates the
methodological improvements to the CPI which add a cumulative total of
0.2 percentage point to the growth by 1999. Potential growth is affected
by these changes because nominal spending is adjusted for inflation to
determine real economic growth. Thus, assuming that nominal spending is
held fixed, reductions in measured inflation increase measured real
growth.
The Mid-Session Review interest rate projection is nearly identical to
that of the FY 1999 Budget. Short-term interest rates are projected to
decline gradually over the forecast horizon. By 2001, the three-month
Treasury bill rate is expected to be 4.7 percent, about 30 basis points
lower than the rate in mid-May. The 10-year Treasury bond rate is
projected to remain at its recent level of 5.6 percent, 10 basis points
below the Budget's projection.
On the income side, taxable incomes as a share of GDP are similar to
those in the Budget, but the composition has been changed slightly. The
share of profits has been scaled back and the share of wages and
salaries has been correspondingly increased to reflect recent trends.
Table 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS \1\
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Projections
Actual -------------------------------------------------
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars................................... 8,080 8,456 8,795 9,161 9,559 10,003 10,468
Real, chained (1992) dollars...................... 7,189 7,400 7,550 7,701 7,863 8,051 8,245
Chained price index (1992 = 100), annual average.. 112.4 114.3 116.5 119.0 121.6 124.3 127.0
Percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter:
Current dollars................................... 5.6 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.6
Real, chained (1992) dollars...................... 3.7 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.4
Chained price index (1992 = 100), annual average.. 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars................................... 5.8 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.6
Real, chained (1992) dollars...................... 3.8 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.4
Chained price index (1992 = 100), annual average.. 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2
Incomes, billions of current dollars:
Corporate profits before tax...................... 730 728 735 756 786 824 856
Wages and salaries................................ 3,877 4,126 4,295 4,473 4,662 4,871 5,097
Other taxable income \2\.......................... 1,782 1,848 1,910 1,969 2,030 2,101 2,181
Consumer Price Index (all urban): \3\
Level (1982-84 = 100), annual average............. 160.6 163.2 166.5 170.2 174.2 178.2 182.3
Percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Percent change, year over year.................... 2.3 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3
Unemployment rate, civilian, percent:
Fourth quarter level.............................. 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4
Annual average.................................... 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4
Federal pay raises, January, percent:
Military \4\...................................... 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Civilian \5\...................................... 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Interest rates, percent:
91-day Treasury bills \6\......................... 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7
10-year Treasury notes............................ 6.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Based on information available as of April 1998.
\2\ Rent, interest, dividend and proprietor's components of personal income.
\3\ CPI for all urban consumers. Two versions of the CPI are published. The index shown here is that currently
used, as required by law, in calculating automatic adjustments to individual income tax brackets. Projections
reflect scheduled changes in methodology.
\4\ Beginning with the 1999 increase, percentages apply to basic pay only; adjustments for housing and
subsistence allowances will be determined by the Secretary of Defense.
\5\ Overall average increase, including locality pay adjustments.
\6\ Average rate (bank discount basis) on new issues within period.
RECEIPTS
The current estimates of receipts for 1998 and 1999 exceed the budget
estimates by $45.9 billion and $41.5 billion, respectively. The
estimates for subsequent years have been revised upward by similar
amounts. These changes result primarily from revised economic
projections and technical reestimates.
Revised economic projections increase receipts by $10.7 billion in
1998, $16.1 billion in 1999, and $13.7 billion to $15.1 billion in each
subsequent year. Higher levels of wages and salaries, partially offset
by reductions in non-wage sources of personal income, increase
collections of individual income taxes and payroll taxes throughout the
forecast period. Lower shares of corporate profits in GDP partially
offset the increases in individual income taxes and payroll taxes in
each year.
Higher-than-anticipated collections of individual income taxes account
for most of the $35.3 billion technical revision in 1998 receipts. Most
of the increase in individual income taxes is higher-than-anticipated
withheld and estimated payments of 1998 tax liability, which the
Administration believes will lead to higher receipts throughout the
forecast period. Also contributing to the technical increase in 1998
receipts are higher-than-anticipated net final settlements of 1997
income tax liability by individuals.
Table 3. CHANGE IN RECEIPTS
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1999-2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February estimate.............................. 1,657.9 1,742.7 1,793.6 1,862.6 1,949.3 2,028.2
Change since February:
Revised economic assumptions................. 10.7 16.1 13.7 14.3 13.9 15.1 73.2
Technical reestimates........................ 35.3 25.4 27.3 25.5 27.0 28.8 134.1
Administrative action........................ -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3
----------------------------------------------------------------
Total change............................... 45.9 41.5 41.0 39.7 40.9 43.8 207.0
Mid-Session estimate........................... 1,703.8 1,784.3 1,834.5 1,902.3 1,990.2 2,072.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPENDING
The new estimate of total 1998 outlays is $1,664.7 billion, $3.1
billion lower than the February budget estimate. The reduction arises
largely from revised technical assumpions offset by increases enacted in
the Supplemental Appropriations and Rescissions Act for 1998. The
Adminstration now estimates total outlays for 1999 at $1,730.0 billion,
$3.2 billion below the February estimate. Reductions from changed
economic assumptions more than offset increases resulting from policy
adjustments and revised technical assumptions.
Policy changes
Policy changes are largely due to the Supplemental Appropriations and
Rescissions Act of 1998. The Act provided discretionary funding for
Bosnia and Southwest Asia contingency operations and disaster relief.
The current estimates also reflect the override of the President's veto
of selected items in the Military Construction Appropriations Act for
1998. Due to policy changes, estimated outlays for 1998 and 1999 are
$2.6 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively, higher than in the 1999
Budget.
Economic changes
Revisions in economic assumptions, discussed earlier in this report,
lower estimated outlays by $1.2 billion in 1998, $5.8 billion in 1999,
and a total of $45.7 billion from 1999 to 2003. These reductions largely
result from downward revisions in inflation and interest rates. In
addition, debt service on other changes due to economic assumptions
contributes to the lower outlay estimates.
Technical changes
For 1998, estimated outlays are $4.5 billion lower than in February
for technical reasons. For 1999, technical changes increase outlays by
$0.8 billion. The following changes in outlay projections all arise from
technical factors.
Discretionary programs.--Estimated outlays for discretionary programs
in 1998 are lower than the budget estimates by $1.6 billion, reflecting
lower-than-anticipated actual spending for a number of non-defense
programs, including highways and disaster relief.
Farm programs.--Spending on farm production programs through the
Commodity Credit Corporation is projected to rise by 6 percent in 1998
and 1999, relative to the February budget, but diminish in 2000 through
2002. In 1998, net outlays are now estimated at $0.7 billion above the
February estimate. These changes reflect decreased demand for tobacco
from tobacco companies and decreased demand for cotton and soybeans
resulting in higher near-term price support loan outlays.
Deposit insurance.--Net outlays for 1998 for deposit insurance are now
projected to be $0.6 billion higher than in February, largely reflecting
slower than expected asset recoveries in the Bank Insurance Fund.
Estimated 1999 net outlays are $1.4 billion higher than projected in
February, largely reflecting a shift in timing of recoveries from
certain RTC securitizations. These recoveries, which are recorded in the
budget as negative outlays, are now expected to occur in 2000 rather
than in 1999.
Medicare.--Current estimates of Medicare outlays are higher than the
February estimates by $3.1 billion in 1999 for technical reasons. Most
of this change reflects corrections to estimates of home health
expenditures for both fee-for-service and managed-care coverage.
Unemployment insurance.--The revised estimates of unemployment
insurance for 1998 are less than the budget estimates by $0.6 billion,
reflecting actual experience to date.
Food stamps.--Estimated outlays for food stamps are lower than in the
budget by $0.7 billion in 1998 and $1.2 billion in 1999, reflecting a
downward revision in average participation level and benefit costs.
Family support payments.--Actual family support payments to date have
been lower than anticipated, resulting from States' transition out of
the repealed AFDC program. This leads to a reduction in estimates of
1998 outlays of $1.2 billion.
Earned income tax credit (EITC).--Estimated outlays for EITC are now
projected to be $1.0 billion and $1.2 billion higher than in February
for 1998 and 1999, respectively. This increase reflects higher calendar
year 1997 tax claims in the first several months of the tax season than
were anticipated.
Social security.--The revised estimates for Social Security are lower
than the budget estimates by $2.0 billion in 1998 and $1.2 billion in
1999, reflecting experience to date, including fewer applications than
anticipated and lower than anticipated retroactive disability benefits.
Federal Communications Commission (FCC) spectrum auctions.--Total
receipts for auctions of spectrum to date have exceeded projections in
the budget for this year. Because these receipts are recorded as
negative outlays, 1998 estimated outlays have been reduced by $0.9
billion. Estimated outlays in 2002 have been increased by $2.3 billion,
reflecting lower projections of receipts. This reduction reflects a
decision by the FCC on the amount of spectrum available for the analog
return auction.
Naval Petroleum Reserve (NPR) sale proceeds.--Current estimates
reflect a different pattern of actual receipts than assumed in the
February estimates. Now that the sale conditions are known, projected
receipts shift from 1999 into both 1998 and 2000.
Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) receipts.--Estimates in the budget
reflected a March, 1998 resolution of Alaska escrow accounts based on a
final U.S. Supreme Court decree. Delay in the final decree has shifted
the anticipated settlement date into 1999. Receipts including interest
on the escrow deposits are now anticipated to be $1.7 billion in 1999.
Table 4. CHANGE IN OUTLAYS
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999-
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February estimate......................... 1,667.8 1,733.2 1,785.0 1,834.4 1,859.6 1,945.4
Revisions due to:
Policy changes:
Discretionary programs.............. 2.5 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 * 4.0
Debt service........................ * 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.6
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, policy changes............ 2.6 1.9 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 5.6
Economic assumptions:
Social security..................... -* -2.0 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.5 -12.9
Other mandatory programs............ -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 -1.3 -5.9
Net interest:
Interest rate..................... -* -1.2 -1.9 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -9.7
Debt service...................... -0.1 -1.2 -2.3 -3.4 -4.5 -5.8 -17.2
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, economic assumptions...... -1.2 -5.8 -8.1 -9.6 -10.4 -11.8 -45.7
Technical reestimates:
Discretionary programs.............. -1.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 -* -0.3 0.7
Farm programs....................... 0.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.1
Deposit insurance................... 0.6 1.4 -1.6 -0.1 -0.2 * -0.5
Medicare............................ -0.4 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 12.0
Unemployment insurance.............. -0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4
Food stamps......................... -0.7 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -1.7 -6.8
Family support payments............. -1.2 -0.1 -- -- -- -- -0.1
EITC................................ 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 6.1
Social security..................... -2.0 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -8.4
FCC spectrum auction................ -0.9 -0.1 -- 0.2 2.3 -0.8 1.5
NPR sale proceeds................... -0.4 0.7 -0.3 -- -- -- 0.4
OCS receipts (net).................. 0.1 -0.4 -- -- -- -- -0.4
Other mandatory..................... -0.8 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 5.5
Net interest:
OCS settlement escrow............. 1.1 -1.2 -- -- -- -- -1.2
Other \1\......................... 0.4 -2.5 -5.6 -8.1 -10.5 -12.7 -39.4
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, technical reestimates....... -4.5 0.8 -5.1 -6.0 -7.0 -11.9 -29.2
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, changes...................... -3.1 -3.2 -11.2 -14.7 -16.9 -23.4 -69.4
Mid-Session estimate...................... 1,664.7 1,730.0 1,773.9 1,819.7 1,842.6 1,922.0
Memorandum:
Discretionary budget authority:
February estimate..................... 555.4 570.6 575.0 582.5 588.6 604.2
IMF................................. 17.9 -- -- -- -- -- --
Other............................... 3.2 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, change..................... 21.1 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9
Mid-Session estimate.................. 576.5 570.7 575.1 582.1 588.2 603.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less
\1\ Includes debt service.
SUMMARY TABLES
Table 5. ESTIMATED SPENDING FROM 1999 BALANCES OF BUDGET AUTHORITY: DISCRETIONARY PROGRAMS \1\
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total balances, end of 1999............................................................................ 501.4
Spending from end of 1999 balances in:
2000................................................................................................. 240.2
2001................................................................................................. 105.0
2002................................................................................................. 66.4
2003................................................................................................. 46.2
Expiring balances, 2000 through 2003................................................................... .......
Unexpended balances at the end of 2003................................................................. 43.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ This table is required by section 221(b) of the Legislative Reorganization Act of 1970.
Table 6. OUTLAYS FOR MANDATORY PROGRAMS UNDER CURRENT LAW \1\
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
1997 -----------------------------------------------------------
Actual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Human resources programs:
Education, training, employment and
social services........................ 13.7 12.8 13.7 14.3 13.7 12.9 15.0
Health.................................. 100.9 106.6 115.5 122.8 131.8 141.5 152.5
Medicare................................ 187.4 195.0 207.8 216.5 232.0 234.3 255.3
Income security......................... 191.4 196.0 208.7 219.0 227.2 233.8 242.3
Social security......................... 362.3 376.1 389.7 404.9 422.4 442.2 462.8
Veterans' benefits and services......... 20.7 24.0 24.7 26.1 27.8 32.5 34.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, human resources programs.... 876.5 910.4 960.0 1,003.5 1,054.8 1,097.1 1,161.9
Other mandatory programs:
International affairs................... -3.8 -4.3 -4.1 -3.8 -3.6 -3.4 -3.2
Energy.................................. -3.4 -2.8 -4.6 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3
Agriculture............................. 5.0 7.1 7.4 6.5 5.3 5.3 5.9
Commerce and housing credit............. -17.6 0.4 2.4 5.8 8.4 8.4 8.0
Transportation.......................... 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.8
Undistributed offsetting receipts....... -50.0 -48.0 -42.4 -44.3 -47.4 -54.2 -48.6
Other functions......................... -* 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, other mandatory functions... -67.5 -43.4 -38.1 -35.9 -37.8 -45.4 -38.7
=====================================================================
Total, outlays for mandatory
programs under current law......... 809.0 867.0 921.9 967.6 1,016.9 1,051.7 1,123.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
\1\ This table is required by Section 221(b) of the Legislative Reorganizations Act of 1970.
Table 7. MANDATORY PAY-AS-YOU-GO PROPOSALS
(Deficit impact in millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate
----------------------------------------------------------- Total
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1999-2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Spending:
Agriculture:
Food stamps:
Restrict States' ability to increase
Federal outlays by shifting
administrative costs from TANF to
food stamps and medicaid (food
stamps component).................. ....... -160 -185 -190 -195 -200 -930
Restore benefits for vulnerable
groups of legal immigrants (food
stamps component).................. 100 535 500 455 460 480 2,430
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, Food Stamps............. 100 375 315 265 265 280 1,500
Shift certain crop insurance spending
to mandatory......................... ....... 185 123 118 127 137 690
Limit ``catastrophic'' crop insurance
payments to $100,000................. ....... ........ -15 -30 -30 -30 -105
Increase Environmental Quality
Incentive Program (EQIP)............. ....... 13 49 70 59 52 243
Forest Service payments to States
(``delinking from receipts'')........ ....... 10 22 30 41 48 151
Rural EZ/EC economic development
grants for Round II.................. ....... ........ 7 16 19 19 61
Restructure Export Enhancement
Program (EEP) consistent with market
conditions........................... ....... -230 -359 -258 -258 -270 -1,375
Restructure CCC cotton user marketing
certificates consistent with market
conditions........................... ....... -110 -48 ........ ........ ........ -158
Spend existing and new Forest Service
recreation and entrance fees......... ....... ........ 3 3 3 3 12
Education:
Fund new teachers to help address
teacher shortages and reduce class
sizes................................ ....... 55 780 1,195 1,440 1,632 5,102
Student loan increases............... 312 312 519 627 739 861 3,058
Recall education loan guaranty
reserves............................. ....... ........ -275 -275 -275 -275 -1,100
Other student loan reforms........... -470 -451 -804 -864 -805 -710 -3,634
Health and Human Services:
Establish Early Learning Fund to
provide challenge grants to
communities for activities that
improve early childhood education and
the quality and safety of child care
for children under five years old.... ....... 372 504 591 600 600 2,667
Increase child care subsidies
provided to poor and near poor
families............................. ....... 798 1,102 1,301 1,519 1,892 6,612
Medicaid:
Restore benefits for vulnerable
groups of legal immigrants
(medicaid component)............... ....... 25 35 50 55 65 230
Children's health outreach.......... ....... 110 150 210 210 220 900
Restrict States' ability to
increase Federal outlays by
shifting administrative costs from
TANF to food stamps and medicaid
(medicaid component)............... ....... -340 -360 -380 -410 -440 -1,930
Medicaid effect from Medicare
changes............................ ....... -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -40
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, Medicaid................ ....... -210 -180 -130 -155 -165 -840
Health care:
Voluntary purchasing cooperatives
for small groups................... ....... 20 20 20 20 20 100
Increase aid to territories for
children's health insurance........ ....... 34 34 34 25 25 153
Medicare/clinical demonstration:
Medicare buy-in policies............ ....... 101 387 363 343 339 1,533
Medicare program integrity.......... ....... -180 -420 -515 -600 -665 -2,380
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, net effect on Medicare
trust funds...................... ....... -79 -33 -152 -257 -326 -847
Clinical cancer trials
demonstration...................... ....... 200 250 300 ........ ........ 750
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, Medicare/clinical
demonstration.................... ....... 121 217 148 -257 -326 -97
Child Suport Enforcement:
Repeal hold harmless provision...... ....... -40 -48 -57 -58 -56 -259
Conform paternity testing match rate
to administrative match rate....... ....... -8 -8 -8 -8 -9 -41
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, Child Support
Enforcement...................... ....... -48 -56 -65 -66 -65 -300
Housing and Urban Development:
Fund new Urban Empowerment Zones.... ....... 3 54 123 143 149 472
Increase FHA single family loan
limit.............................. ....... -228 -241 -234 -233 -237 -1,173
Interior:
BLM payments to States (``delinking
from receipts'')................... ....... 6 7 12 14 17 56
Spend existing and new recreation
and entrance fees.................. ....... ........ -21 33 79 79 170
Spend existing and new park
concession fees \1\................ ....... 5 10 15 16 14 60
Reduce Sport Fish Restoration
(offsets increase in DOT Boat
Safety account).................... ....... ........ -3 -6 -10 -14 -33
Expand cover-over of distilled
spirits tax to Virgin Islands...... ....... 12 12 12 12 12 60
Labor:
Reauthorize NAFTA-TAA for five years ....... 27 45 52 53 55 232
Other TAA amendments............... ....... 67 88 97 97 97 446
PBGC--raise guarantee cap for
multiemployer pensions and other... ....... 1 1 1 3 4 10
UI ``safety net'' proposal:
UI administrative costs special
distribution..................... ....... 126 101 188 236 ........ 651
Extended benefits................. ....... ........ ........ 9 9 8 26
Transportation:
Shift St. Lawrence Seaway spending
to mandatory....................... ....... 13 13 13 14 14 67
Shift Coast Guard Boat Safety
spending to mandatory (partially
offset by reductions in Sport Fish
Restoration)....................... ....... 24 42 55 55 55 231
NEXTEA equity formula change for
distribution of Federal-aid grants
to States.......................... 25 53 36 -9 -53 -83 -56
Treasury:
Expand cover-over of distilled
spirits tax to Puerto Rico......... ....... 34 34 34 34 34 170
Shift Winstar/FIRREA litigation
expenses to mandatory
(reimbursement to Department of
Justice)........................... 10 45 49 43 36 29 202
EITC and Child Credit (outlay
component)......................... ....... -70 -105 -106 -108 -111 -500
Miscellaneous activities authorized
in tobacco legislation............. ....... 3,425 3,943 4,582 4,972 5,362 22,284
Veterans:
Pay full benefits for Filipinos
residing in the U.S................ ....... 5 5 5 5 5 25
Establish a reserve to fully fund
the ``H'' policyholders in the
National Service Life Insurance
Fund............................... ....... * * * * * 2
Reinstate policy on post-service
tobacco-related illnesses.......... ....... -741 -1,330 -2,291 -6,274 -6,333 -16,969
Provide a one-time 20% increase in
the Montgomery GI Bill and provide
$100 million a year until 2003 to
increase education and training
programs administered by the
Department of Labor................ ....... 291 291 309 306 305 1,502
VA Housing:
Charge fees to lenders participating
in VA's home loan program to fund
information technology
improvements:
Increased technology spending..... ....... 5 5 5 ........ ........ 15
Fees.............................. ....... -5 -5 -5 ........ ........ -15
Eliminate the vendee loan program.. ....... -2 -9 -9 -11 -12 -43
Environmental Protection Agency:
Provide funding for Superfund orphan
shares............................. ....... 200 200 200 200 200 1,000
Social Security Administration:
Expand authority to collect SSI
overpayments....................... ....... -35 -40 -35 -30 -30 -170
Adjust discretionary caps to fund
SSI non-disability redeterminations ....... 46 4 ........ ........ ........ 50
Return to work pilot for recipients
of disability benefits (SSI):...... ....... -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -18
District of Columbia:
Make annual contribution to the DC
Judicial Retirement Fund mandatory. ....... 6 6 6 6 6 30
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
(FDIC):
State bank examination fee (Non-Fed
member state banks)................ ....... -89 -94 -97 -101 -106 -487
Railroad Retirement Board:
Conforming Social Security
Equivalent Benefits to Social
Security........................... ....... 32 48 49 49 49 227
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, pay-as-you-go spending
proposals........................ -23 4,498 5,100 5,843 2,527 3,293 21,261
Receipts:
Provide new incentives.................. 459 3,220 5,125 5,469 4,987 5,378 24,179
Eliminate unwarranted benefits.......... -323 -4,342 -4,289 -4,725 -4,699 -4,959 -23,014
Receipts from tobacco legislation....... ....... -9,795 -11,787 -13,283 -14,544 -16,085 -65,494
Superfund initiative.................... -75 -1,775 -1,407 -1,410 -1,421 -1,434 -7,447
All other............................... ....... -73 -2,147 -2,521 -2,565 -1,339 -8,645
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, pay-as-you-go receipt
proposals............................ 61 -12,765 -14,505 -16,470 -18,242 -18,439 -80,421
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL, pay-as-you-go proposals...... 38 -8,267 -9,405 -10,627 -15,715 -15,146 -59,160
ADDENDUM:
Proposals not subject to pay-as-you-go:
Spending:
HUD:
Equity share relaxation.......... ....... -2 -1 -2 ........ ........ -5
Interior:
Utah mitigation receipts.......... ....... 1 ........ ........ ........ ........ 1
Labor:
Special benefits................. ....... -13 -29 -31 -16 46 -43
UI integrity..................... ....... -118 -160 -160 -160 -160 -758
Social Security Administration:
Savings from SSI non-disability
redetermination.................. ....... -105 -120 -8 -4 -3 -240
Interactive effect of Medicare
initiatives...................... ....... 20 107 136 144 138 545
Return to work pilot for
recipients of disability benefits
(DI):............................ ....... ........ -5 1 7 13 16
FDIC:
Migration of Fed and FDIC
retirees and certain active
employees to FEHBP (FDIC
component)....................... -6 -13 -14 -15 -17 -19 -78
Morris K. Udall Scholarship Fund:
End of receipt of Federal
payments to the fund, which are
extended in the baseline but not
proposed for continuation........ ....... ........ ........ ........ ........ 2 2
Undistributed offsetting receipts:
Adjust timing of BBA-97 spectrum
receipts......................... ....... ........ -1,800 500 1,300 ........ .........
Employer share impact of FERS
``open season'' repeal........... 3 93 113 119 125 171 621
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, non-pay-as-you-go
spending proposals............. -3 -137 -1,909 540 1,379 188 61
Receipts:
Repeal FERS open season (will score
as discretionary).................. -6 -167 -201 -212 -224 -232 -1,036
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, proposals not subject to
pay-as-you-go.................... -9 -304 -2,110 328 1,155 -44 -975
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes shift of existing fees from miscellaneous receipts recorded in the Department of the Treasury to
special fund receipts in the Department of the Interior.
Table 8. EFFECT OF PROPOSALS ON RECEIPTS
(In millions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimate Total
------------------------------------------------------ 1999-
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Provide tax relief and extend expiring
provisions:
Make child care more affordable:
Increase and simplify child and dependent
care tax credit............................ ....... -266 -1,259 -1,148 -1,199 -1,241 -5,113
Establish tax credit for employer-provided
child care................................. ....... -38 -77 -108 -124 -131 -478
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, make child care more affordable. ....... -304 -1,336 -1,256 -1,323 -1,372 -5,591
Promote energy efficiency and improve the
environment:
Provide tax credit for energy-efficient
building equipment......................... ....... -123 -223 -283 -341 -409 -1,379
Provide tax credit for the purchase of new
energy-efficient homes..................... ....... -7 -23 -38 -54 -75 -197
Provide tax credit for high-fuel-economy
vehicles................................... ....... ....... ....... -60 -200 -400 -660
Equalize treatment of parking and transit
benefits................................... ....... -4 -11 -16 -23 -30 -84
Provide investment tax credit for CHP
systems.................................... 10 -270 -281 -113 -95 -183 -942
Provide tax credit for replacement of
certain circuitbreaker equipment........... ....... -3 -9 -11 -8 -5 -36
Provide tax credit for certain PFC and HFC
recycling equipment........................ ....... -3 -7 -7 -6 -3 -26
Provide tax credit for rooftop solar
equipment.................................. ....... -6 -16 -24 -31 -43 -120
Extend wind and biomass tax credit.......... ....... -5 -20 -38 -55 -73 -191
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, promote energy efficiency and
improve the environment.................. 10 -421 -590 -590 -813 -1,221 -3,635
Promote expanded retirement savings........... -42 -139 -191 -205 -190 -190 -915
Expand education incentives:
Provide incentives for public school
construction............................... ....... -215 -865 -1,309 -1,309 -1,309 -5,007
Extend and expand exclusion for employer-
provided educational assistance............ -10 -234 -299 -408 -98 ....... -1,039
Eliminate tax when forgiving student loans
subject to income contingent repayment..... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ........
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, expand education incentives..... -10 -449 -1,164 -1,717 -1,407 -1,309 -6,046
Increase low-income housing tax credit per
capita cap................................... ....... -45 -167 -306 -448 -593 -1,559
Extend expiring provisions:
Extend work opportunity tax credit.......... -5 -206 -279 -181 -72 -40 -778
Extend welfare-to-work tax credit........... ....... -11 -53 -51 -37 -17 -169
Extend R&E tax credit....................... -365 -802 -608 -261 -124 -49 -1,844
Extend deduction provided for contributions
of appreciated stock to private foundations ....... -40 -27 ....... ....... ....... -67
Make permanent the expensing of brownfields
remediation costs.......................... ....... ....... ....... -133 -205 -196 -534
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, extend expiring provisions...... -370 -1,059 -967 -626 -438 -302 -3,392
Modify international trade provisions:
Extend GSP and modify other trade provisions
\1\........................................ ....... -548 -477 -485 -18 -19 -1,547
Extend and modify Puerto Rico economic-
activity tax credit........................ ....... -42 -79 -124 -165 -197 -607
Levy tariff on certain textiles and apparel
products produced in the CNMI \1\.......... ....... ....... 187 187 187 187 748
Expand Virgin Island tariff credits \1\..... ....... ....... -* -* -2 -1 -3
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, modify international trade
provisions \1\........................... ....... -590 -369 -422 2 -30 -1,409
Provide other tax incentives:
Expand tax incentives for SSBICs............ -* -* -* -* -* -* -*
Accelerate and expand start-up of incentives
available to two new empowerment zones..... ....... -44 -19 ....... ....... ....... -63
Make first $2,000 of severance pay exempt
from income tax............................ ....... -42 -169 -174 -180 -185 -750
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, provide other tax incentives.... -* -86 -188 -174 -180 -185 -813
Simplify the tax laws......................... -47 -126 -142 -138 -136 -89 -631
[[Page 352]]
Enhance taxpayers' rights..................... ....... -1 -11 -35 -54 -87 -188
===============================================================
Subtotal, provide tax relief and extend
expiring provisions \1\.................... -459 -3,220 -5,125 -5,469 -4,987 -5,378 -24,179
Eliminate unwarranted benefits and adopt other
revenue measures:
Defer deduction for interest and OID on
convertible debt............................. 2 10 22 34 44 54 164
Eliminate dividends-received deduction for
certain preferred stock...................... 3 10 20 30 41 53 154
Repeal percentage depletion for non-fuel
minerals mined on Federal and formerly
Federal lands................................ ....... 92 94 96 97 99 478
Repeal tax-free conversions of large C
corporations to S corporations............... ....... 1 13 31 44 55 144
Replace sales-source rules with activity-based
rules........................................ ....... 580 1,356 1,456 1,545 1,634 6,571
Modify rules relating to foreign oil and gas
extraction income............................ ....... 5 62 102 107 112 388
Repeal lower-of-cost-or-market inventory
accounting method............................ 16 407 507 417 237 79 1,647
Increase penalties for failure to file correct
information returns.......................... ....... 6 12 15 19 13 65
Tighten the substantial understatement penalty
for large corporations....................... ....... ....... 25 42 43 37 147
Repeal exemption for withholding on gambling
winnings from bingo and keno in excess of
$5,000....................................... ....... 17 4 1 1 1 24
Reinstate oil spill excise tax \1\............ 34 238 241 243 248 251 1,221
Modify Federal Unemployment Act provisions.... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ........
Extend pro-rata disallowance of tax-exempt
interest expense that applies to banks to all
financial intermediaries..................... 4 10 17 22 26 30 105
Increase proration percentage for P&C
insurance companies.......................... -16 43 55 76 96 126 396
Preclude certain taxpayers from prematurely
claiming losses from receivables............. ....... 416 57 62 65 68 668
Restrict special net operating loss carryback
rules for specified liability losses......... ....... 12 21 22 24 25 104
Freeze grandfather status of stapled (or
``paired-share'') REITs...................... 3 9 17 25 35 46 132
Restrict impermissible business indirectly
conducted by REITs........................... ....... 1 2 4 5 7 19
Modify treatment of closely held REITs........ ....... 29 12 16 18 19 94
Modify depreciation method for tax-exempt use
property..................................... ....... 1 5 11 16 22 55
Impose excise tax on purchase of structured
settlements \1\.............................. ....... 10 14 18 19 21 82
Clarify and expand math-error procedures...... ....... 48 67 69 70 72 326
Clarify the meaning of ``subject to''
liabilities under section 357(c)............. 4 10 16 23 30 37 116
Simplify foster child definition under EITC... ....... ....... 6 6 6 6 24
Clarify tie-breaker rule under EITC........... ....... * * * * * *
Eliminate non-business valuation discounts.... ....... ....... 232 242 260 274 1,008
Eliminate ``Crummey'' rule.................... ....... ....... 20 21 22 24 87
Eliminate gift tax exemption for personal
residence trusts............................. ....... -1 -1 1 7 19 25
Include QTIP trust assets in surviving
spouse's estate.............................. ....... ....... 2 2 2 2 8
Apply 7.7% capitalization rate to credit life
insurance premiums........................... 6 22 34 32 21 10 119
Modify corporate-owned life insurance (COLI)
rules........................................ 251 409 414 434 460 487 2,204
Modify reserve rules for annuity contracts.... ....... 1,815 674 821 639 692 4,641
Tax certain exchanges of insurance contracts
and reallocations of assets within variable
insurance contracts.......................... 2 37 95 168 259 368 927
Reduce ``investment in the contract'' for
mortality and expense charges on certain
insurance contracts.......................... ....... 1 2 11 28 58 100
Amend 80/20 company rules..................... 13 36 48 49 51 52 236
Prescribe regulatory directive to address tax
avoidance involving foreign built-in losses.. ....... 30 51 52 54 56 243
Prescribe regulatory directive to address tax
avoidance through use of hybrids............. ....... 27 54 54 44 34 213
[[Page 353]]
Modify foreign office material participation
exception applicable to inventory sales
attributable to nonresident's U.S. office.... 1 7 10 10 11 11 49
Stop abuse of CFC exception to ownership
requirements................................. ....... 4 9 7 5 5 30
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, eliminate unwarranted benefits and
adopt other revenue measures \1\........... 323 4,342 4,289 4,725 4,699 4,959 23,014
Other provisions that affect receipts:
Reinstate environmental tax imposed on
corporate taxable income \2\................. ....... 1,074 696 690 690 691 3,841
Reinstate Superfund excise taxes \1\.......... 75 701 711 720 731 743 3,606
Extend excise taxes on gasoline, diesel fuel
and special motor fuels \1\.................. ....... ....... 371 382 391 403 1,547
Convert airport and airway trust fund taxes to
a cost-based user fee system \1\............. ....... ....... 1,700 1,700 1,700 850 5,950
Receipts from tobacco legislation............. ....... 9,795 11,787 13,283 14,544 16,085 65,494
Assess fees for examination of bank holding
companies and State-chartered member banks
(receipt effect) \1\......................... ....... 72 75 78 81 85 391
Transfer retirees and certain active employees
of the FDIC and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve to FEHBP (receipt effect).... ....... 1 1 1 1 1 5
Repeal FERS open season (receipt effect)...... 6 167 201 212 224 232 1,036
Create solvency incentive for State
unemployment trust fund accounts \1\......... ....... ....... ....... 360 392 ....... 752
---------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, other provisions that affect
receipts \1\............................... 81 11,810 15,542 17,426 18,754 19,090 82,622
Total effect of proposals \1\............... -55 12,932 14,706 16,682 18,466 18,671 81,457
(Paygo proposals) \1\..................... -61 12,765 14,505 16,470 18,242 18,439 80,421
(Non-paygo proposals)..................... 6 167 201 212 224 232 1,036
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $500,000 or less.
\1\ Net of income offsets.
\2\ Net of deductibility for income tax purposes.
Table 9. BUDGET BY CATEGORY OF OUTLAYS AND RECEIPTS: MID-SESSION REVIEW VERSUS FEBRUARY BUDGET
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999 Budget Policy (February estimate)
Outlays:
Discretionary:
Defense................................... 265.1 266.5 269.7 270.8 273.1 289.5
Nondefense................................ 287.6 299.7 304.1 304.4 303.6 305.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary................... 552.7 566.2 573.8 575.1 576.8 595.3
Mandatory:
Social security........................... 378.1 392.9 409.3 427.1 447.0 467.5
Medicare.................................. 195.4 204.6 214.2 229.9 232.2 253.1
Medicaid.................................. 101.0 107.7 114.8 123.4 132.6 143.1
Other..................................... 198.0 220.0 236.4 245.2 243.8 265.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory....................... 872.4 925.2 974.7 1,025.7 1,055.6 1,129.5
Net interest................................ 242.7 241.8 236.5 233.6 227.1 220.6
=================================================================
Total outlays............................... 1,667.8 1,733.2 1,785.0 1,834.4 1,859.6 1,945.4
Receipts...................................... 1,657.9 1,742.7 1,793.6 1,862.6 1,949.3 2,028.2
Surplus Reserved Pending Social Security
Reform....................................... NA 9.5 8.5 28.2 89.7 82.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Surplus/deficit (-)........................... -10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
On-budget surplus/deficit (-)............... -106.3 -95.7 -104.9 -94.1 -44.6 -62.8
Off-budget surplus.......................... 96.3 105.3 113.5 122.3 134.4 145.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mid-Session Review Policy
Outlays:
Discretionary:
Defense................................... 267.1 268.7 270.3 270.9 273.2 289.5
Nondefense................................ 286.5 299.4 305.7 305.2 303.6 305.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, discretionary................... 553.6 568.1 576.0 576.1 576.8 595.0
Mandatory:
Social security........................... 376.1 389.7 405.0 422.5 442.4 463.0
Medicare.................................. 195.0 207.7 216.5 231.8 234.0 254.9
Medicaid.................................. 101.3 108.1 115.1 123.6 132.7 143.2
Other..................................... 194.7 220.7 234.2 245.4 246.5 265.6
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Subtotal, mandatory....................... 867.0 926.2 970.8 1,023.3 1,055.5 1,126.7
Net interest................................ 244.1 235.7 227.0 220.3 210.3 200.3
=================================================================
Total outlays............................... 1,664.7 1,730.0 1,773.9 1,819.7 1,842.6 1,922.0
Receipts...................................... 1,703.8 1,784.3 1,834.5 1,902.3 1,990.2 2,072.0
Surplus Reserved Pending Social Security
Reform....................................... 39.1 54.2 60.7 82.7 147.6 150.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Surplus/deficit (-)........................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
On-budget surplus/deficit (-)............... -63.1 -59.3 -62.1 -48.3 5.8 -2.4
Off-budget surplus.......................... 102.2 113.5 122.8 131.0 141.7 152.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 10. RECEIPTS BY SOURCE
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February estimates Mid-Session estimates
1997 actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income taxes................... 737.5 767.8 791.5 804.6 833.4 877.1 915.5 810.5 832.6 846.2 874.3 917.2 955.8
Corporation income taxes.................. 182.3 190.8 198.0 202.9 209.2 214.7 220.4 187.7 187.0 190.6 198.1 207.2 216.3
Social insurance and retirement receipts.. 539.4 571.4 595.9 623.0 649.0 677.8 706.5 575.4 602.5 628.7 652.9 679.8 707.9
On-budget................................ (147.4) (155.4) (161.8) (169.1) (176.3) (183.5) (189.9) (155.5) (162.9) (169.7) (176.1) (183.0) (189.3)
Off-budget............................... (392.0) (416.0) (434.1) (453.9) (472.7) (494.3) (516.6) (419.8) (439.6) (459.0) (476.7) (496.9) (518.6)
Excise taxes.............................. 56.9 55.5 72.0 69.6 71.6 74.0 74.6 55.6 72.6 70.4 72.3 74.6 75.2
Estate and gift taxes..................... 19.8 20.4 20.5 21.6 22.6 24.4 25.6 23.1 24.2 25.5 26.6 28.6 29.8
Customs duties............................ 17.9 18.4 18.2 19.5 20.4 22.4 24.0 17.9 18.2 20.5 21.4 23.4 25.1
Miscellaneous receipts.................... 25.5 33.5 46.7 52.2 56.4 59.0 61.4 33.6 47.1 52.6 56.8 59.4 61.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total.................................... 1,579.3 1,657.9 1,742.7 1,793.6 1,862.6 1,949.3 2,028.2 1,703.8 1,784.3 1,834.5 1,902.3 1,990.2 2,072.0
On-budget............................... (1,187.3) (1,241.9) (1,308.6) (1,339.7) (1,389.9) (1,455.0) (1,511.5) (1,284.0) (1,344.6) (1,375.5) (1,425.6) (1,493.3) (1,553.3)
Off-budget.............................. (392.0) (416.0) (434.1) (453.9) (472.7) (494.3) (516.6) (419.8) (439.6) (459.0) (476.7) (496.9) (518.6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 11. OUTLAYS BY AGENCY
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February estimates Mid-Session estimates
1997 actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch.................................... 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
Judicial Branch....................................... 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4
Agriculture........................................... 52.5 55.0 54.3 56.4 56.6 58.0 60.3 54.8 53.3 54.4 54.9 56.4 58.5
Commerce.............................................. 3.8 4.1 4.6 6.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.6 6.0 4.1 3.9 3.9
Defense--Military..................................... 258.3 251.4 252.6 255.8 257.1 259.7 275.8 253.4 254.8 256.4 257.3 259.8 275.8
Education............................................. 30.0 30.7 33.9 36.2 36.8 36.5 37.8 30.7 33.9 36.2 36.8 36.5 37.8
Energy................................................ 14.5 14.4 15.2 15.2 14.9 14.4 14.6 14.6 15.2 15.2 14.9 14.4 14.6
Health and Human Services............................. 339.5 359.1 380.8 401.0 427.7 441.4 476.0 357.5 384.2 403.6 429.8 443.3 478.0
Housing and Urban Development......................... 27.5 31.0 31.6 31.9 31.4 30.8 29.5 30.2 31.8 32.0 31.4 30.8 29.3
Interior.............................................. 6.7 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.2 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.9 8.2 8.2 7.9 8.1
Justice............................................... 14.3 15.5 18.2 18.5 19.2 18.2 17.9 15.5 18.3 18.7 19.4 18.4 18.0
Labor................................................. 30.5 32.1 36.0 38.0 39.3 40.1 41.8 30.6 35.2 38.7 39.8 40.9 42.4
State................................................. 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5
Transportation........................................ 39.8 40.5 41.3 42.2 42.8 43.5 44.4 40.4 41.6 42.6 43.2 43.7 44.5
Treasury.............................................. 379.3 387.2 399.2 402.3 407.9 410.8 414.4 388.8 395.7 394.6 397.0 397.0 397.4
Veterans Affairs...................................... 39.3 43.1 43.2 43.9 44.7 45.4 47.4 43.1 43.2 43.9 44.7 45.4 47.4
Corps of Engineers.................................... 3.6 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
Other Defense Civil Programs.......................... 30.3 31.5 32.4 33.4 34.3 35.1 36.0 31.5 32.4 33.4 34.3 35.1 36.0
Environmental Protection Agency....................... 6.2 6.4 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 6.4 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3
Executive Office of the President..................... 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Federal Emergency Management Agency................... 3.3 3.7 3.1 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.6 3.2 3.7 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.6
General Services Administration....................... 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.1
International Assistance Programs..................... 10.1 9.6 9.5 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.2 9.6 9.5 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.2
National Aeronautics and Space Administration......... 14.4 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.1 13.3 13.4
National Science Foundation........................... 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1
Office of Personnel Management........................ 45.4 46.4 48.6 50.8 53.0 54.6 57.8 46.4 48.4 50.4 52.7 54.2 57.4
Small Business Administration......................... 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7
Social Security Administration........................ 393.3 410.5 425.7 442.9 461.7 482.4 503.9 408.2 422.2 438.2 456.7 477.5 499.0
Other Independent Agencies............................ -2.1 14.0 13.7 21.8 22.5 21.9 22.1 14.4 15.1 20.2 22.4 21.6 22.2
Allowances............................................ ............... ........ 3.2 ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ 1.4 ........ ........ ........ ........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts..................... -155.0 -160.2 -161.6 -172.0 -180.9 -197.5 -199.1 -160.6 -162.6 -172.8 -181.6 -196.4 -201.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total................................................ 1,601.2 1,667.8 1,733.2 1,785.0 1,834.4 1,859.6 1,945.4 1,664.7 1,730.0 1,773.9 1,819.7 1,842.6 1,922.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 12. OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February estimates Mid-Session estimates
1997 actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense.......................... 270.5 264.1 265.5 268.7 269.8 272.1 288.5 266.1 267.6 269.3 269.9 272.2 288.5
International affairs..................... 15.2 14.5 14.5 15.3 15.4 15.7 15.7 14.7 15.0 15.7 15.4 15.7 15.7
General science, space, and technology.... 17.2 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.4 18.8 18.9 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.4 18.8 18.9
Energy.................................... 1.5 0.4 -1.0 0.2 -* -0.2 -0.1 0.6 -1.0 0.2 -* -0.2 -0.1
Natural resources and environment......... 21.4 23.8 23.2 23.9 23.8 23.2 23.5 24.0 23.2 23.8 23.8 23.2 23.5
Agriculture............................... 9.0 10.6 11.0 10.5 9.2 9.1 9.3 11.3 11.4 10.3 9.0 9.0 9.5
Commerce and housing credit............... -14.6 3.5 3.5 11.8 10.9 10.9 10.2 3.6 4.9 10.2 10.8 10.6 10.2
Transportation............................ 40.8 41.5 42.3 43.1 43.4 43.6 45.0 41.5 42.6 43.5 43.9 43.9 45.1
Community and regional development........ 11.0 11.8 10.9 10.1 9.7 8.5 7.6 10.9 11.7 11.1 10.4 8.6 7.6
Education, training, employment, and
social services........................... 53.0 55.1 59.5 62.5 63.3 63.4 65.5 54.6 59.3 63.1 63.4 63.4 65.5
Health.................................... 123.8 131.8 141.5 149.9 160.1 170.7 183.5 131.8 141.9 150.2 160.3 170.8 183.6
Medicare.................................. 190.0 198.1 207.3 216.9 232.6 234.9 255.8 197.7 210.3 219.1 234.5 236.7 257.6
Income security........................... 230.9 239.3 252.8 263.3 271.6 277.9 287.3 236.8 251.5 262.4 271.1 277.7 286.3
Social Security........................... 365.3 381.5 396.2 412.6 430.4 450.2 470.7 379.5 393.0 408.3 425.7 445.6 466.2
Veterans benefits and services............ 39.3 43.1 43.3 44.0 44.8 45.4 47.5 43.1 43.3 44.0 44.8 45.4 47.5
Administration of justice................. 20.2 22.3 25.5 25.9 26.6 25.8 25.7 22.3 25.6 26.1 26.8 26.0 25.8
General government........................ 12.8 12.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 17.9 18.5 12.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.0 18.6
Net interest.............................. 244.0 242.7 241.8 236.5 233.6 227.1 220.6 244.1 235.7 227.0 220.3 210.3 200.3
Allowances................................ ............... ......... 3.2 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... 1.4 ......... ......... ......... .........
Undistributed offsetting receipts......... -50.0 -46.4 -42.5 -45.8 -47.2 -55.5 -48.3 -48.0 -42.3 -46.0 -46.7 -52.8 -48.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total.................................... 1,601.2 1,667.8 1,733.2 1,785.0 1,834.4 1,859.6 1,945.4 1,664.7 1,730.0 1,773.9 1,819.7 1,842.6 1,922.0
On-budget............................... (1,290.6) (1,348.1) (1,404.4) (1,444.6) (1,484.0) (1,499.6) (1,574.3) (1,347.1) (1,403.9) (1,437.6) (1,473.9) (1,487.5) (1,555.7)
Off-budget.............................. (310.6) (319.7) (328.9) (340.4) (350.4) (360.0) (371.1) (317.6) (326.1) (336.3) (345.7) (355.1) (366.3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
Table 13. DISCRETIONARY BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February estimates Mid-Session estimates
Agency 1997 Actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislative Branch.................................... 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7
Judicial Branch....................................... 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0
Agriculture........................................... 15.7 15.6 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.9 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.3
Commerce.............................................. 3.8 4.2 4.9 6.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.9 6.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
Defense--Military..................................... 254.0 256.1 258.4 264.1 272.3 275.5 285.2 259.2 260.3 264.1 272.3 275.5 285.2
Education............................................. 26.3 29.4 31.2 31.4 31.5 31.2 31.1 29.4 31.2 31.4 31.5 31.2 31.1
Energy................................................ 16.5 16.5 18.0 17.4 17.0 17.2 17.5 16.7 18.0 17.4 17.0 17.2 17.5
Health and Human Services............................. 34.4 36.9 38.5 39.7 40.7 42.1 44.2 36.9 38.5 39.7 40.7 42.1 44.2
Housing and Urban Development......................... 16.4 24.6 25.0 28.1 28.7 29.8 31.1 22.2 24.7 27.7 28.4 29.5 30.8
Interior.............................................. 7.3 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1
Justice............................................... 16.4 17.3 18.1 17.0 16.7 16.6 16.9 17.3 18.1 17.0 16.7 16.6 16.9
Labor................................................. 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 10.7 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1
State................................................. 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.9
Transportation........................................ 37.8 40.4 41.1 41.6 41.9 42.4 43.0 40.7 41.1 41.6 41.9 42.4 43.0
Treasury.............................................. 10.6 11.5 12.3 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 12.3 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
Veterans Affairs...................................... 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.5 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.5
Corps of Engineers.................................... 4.1 4.1 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.2 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4
Other Defense Civil Programs.......................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Environmental Protection Agency....................... 6.8 7.4 7.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1
Executive Office of the President..................... 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Federal Emergency Management Agency................... 5.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
General Services Administration....................... 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
International Assistance Programs..................... 10.6 11.6 12.2 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 29.5 12.2 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0
National Aeronautics and Space Administration......... 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.4
National Science Foundation........................... 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2
Office of Personnel Management........................ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Small Business Administration......................... 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Social Security Administration........................ 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Other Independent Agencies............................ 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.2
Allowances............................................ ............... ........ 3.2 ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ 1.4 ........ ........ ........ ........
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts..................... ............... ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ * ........ ........ ........ ........ ........
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total................................................ 536.3 555.4 570.6 575.0 582.5 588.6 604.2 576.5 570.7 575.1 582.1 588.2 603.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
Table 14. DISCRETIONARY BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION
(In billions of dollars)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February estimates Mid-Session estimates
1997 actual -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National defense...................................... 266.2 268.6 271.6 277.0 284.8 288.1 298.0 271.7 273.5 277.0 284.8 288.1 298.0
International affairs................................. 18.2 19.0 20.2 19.2 18.9 18.8 18.8 37.0 20.6 19.7 18.9 18.8 18.8
General science, space, and technology................ 16.6 17.9 18.5 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.1 17.9 18.5 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.1
Energy................................................ 4.2 2.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0
Natural resources and environment..................... 22.4 23.2 22.6 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.3 23.5 22.6 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.3
Agriculture........................................... 4.2 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8
Commerce and housing credit........................... 2.8 3.2 3.3 5.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 4.7 2.6 2.5 2.5
Transportation........................................ 38.7 41.4 41.8 42.3 42.6 43.1 43.7 41.7 41.8 42.3 42.6 43.1 43.7
Community and regional development.................... 13.0 8.7 9.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.8 10.3 9.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.8
Education, training, employment, and social services.. 42.5 46.4 48.6 49.1 49.4 49.3 48.9 46.4 48.6 49.1 49.4 49.3 48.9
Health................................................ 25.1 26.4 27.5 28.3 29.2 30.5 33.0 26.4 27.5 28.3 29.2 30.5 33.0
Medicare.............................................. 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7
Income security....................................... 22.7 31.9 33.0 36.7 37.8 39.0 40.3 29.6 33.0 36.7 37.8 39.0 40.3
Social Security....................................... 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
Veterans benefits and services........................ 18.9 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.6 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.6
Administration of justice............................. 22.9 24.2 25.7 24.6 24.4 24.6 25.1 24.2 25.7 24.6 24.4 24.6 25.1
General government.................................... 11.8 12.5 13.0 12.1 12.2 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.0 12.1 12.2 12.0 12.1
Allowances............................................ ............... ........ 3.2 ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ 1.4 ........ ........ ........ ........
Undistributed offsetting receipts..................... ............... ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ * ........ ........ ........ ........ ........
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total................................................ 536.3 555.4 570.6 575.0 582.5 588.6 604.2 576.5 570.7 575.1 582.1 588.2 603.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
Table 15. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT \1\
(In billions of dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimates
1997 -----------------------------------------------------------
Actual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financing:
Surplus or deficit (-).................. -21.9 39.1 54.2 60.7 82.7 147.6 150.0
(On-budget)........................... -103.3 -63.1 -59.3 -62.1 -48.3 5.8 -2.4
(Off-budget).......................... 81.4 102.2 113.5 122.8 131.0 141.7 152.3
Means of financing other than borrowing
from the public:
Changes in: \2\
Treasury operating cash balance..... 0.6 3.6 -- -- -- -- --
Checks outstanding, etc. \3\........ 4.0 -2.8 -4.5 -- -- -- --
Deposit fund balances............... -0.4 * -1.7 -- -- -- --
Seigniorage on coins.................. 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Less: Net financing disbursements:
Direct loan financing accounts...... -21.0 -15.0 -15.4 -13.2 -15.4 -14.1 -13.4
Guaranteed loan financing accounts.. 0.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, means of financing other
than borrowing from the public... -16.2 -14.7 -21.6 -13.0 -14.8 -13.5 -12.8
=====================================================================
Total, requirement for borrowing
from the public................ -38.2 24.4 32.6 47.7 67.9 134.0 137.2
Change in debt held by the public....... 38.2 -24.4 -32.6 -47.7 -67.9 -134.0 -137.2
Debt Outstanding, End of Year:
Gross Federal debt:
Debt issued by Treasury............... 5,336.5 5,473.1 5,632.5 5,769.3 5,888.8 5,965.3 6,041.1
Debt issued by other agencies......... 33.2 29.1 28.0 27.1 26.0 24.9 22.8
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, gross Federal debt........... 5,369.7 5,502.1 5,660.5 5,796.4 5,914.8 5,990.2 6,063.9
Held by:
Government accounts................... 1,598.6 1,755.4 1,946.3 2,129.9 2,316.2 2,525.8 2,736.6
The public............................ 3,771.1 3,746.7 3,714.1 3,666.4 3,598.5 3,464.5 3,327.3
Federal Reserve Banks............... 424.5
Other............................... 3,346.6
Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End
of Year:
Debt issued by Treasury................. 5,336.5 5,473.1 5,632.5 5,769.3 5,888.8 5,965.3 6,041.1
Less: Treasury debt not subject to
limitation \4\......................... -15.5 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5 -15.5
Agency debt subject to limitation....... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Adjustment for discount and premium \5\. 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total, debt subject to statutory
limitation \6\....................... 5,327.6 5,464.2 5,623.6 5,760.4 5,879.9 5,956.4 6,032.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* $50 million or less.
\1\ Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost entirely
measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt is almost entirely
measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are measured at face value less
unrealized discount (if any).
\2\ A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) is a means of financing the deficit
and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding or deposit fund balances (which are
liabilities) would also be a means of financing the deficit and therefore also have a positive sign.
\3\ Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability
accounts, allocations of special drawing rights, and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets other than the
Treasury operating cash balance, miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold.
\4\ Consists primarily of Federal Financing Bank debt.
\5\ Consists of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than
zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series securities.
\6\ The statutory debt limit is $5,950 billion.