[Budget of the United States Government]
[VI. Investing in the Common Good: Program Performance in Federal Functions]
[29. Net Interest]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]


 
                            29.  NET INTEREST

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                                            Table 29-1.  NET INTEREST                                           
                                            (In millions of dollars)                                            
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                                                                               Estimate                         
               Function 900                   1997   -----------------------------------------------------------
                                             Actual     1998      1999      2000      2001      2002      2003  
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Spending:                                                                                                       
  Mandatory Outlays:                                                                                            
    Existing law..........................   244,013   242,694   241,750   236,489   233,541   227,116   220,575
    Proposed legislation..................  ........  ........         4         7        15        20        26
Tax Expenditures:                                                                                               
  Existing law............................       915       965     1,015     1,065     1,115     1,175     1,235
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  The Federal Government pays large amounts of interest to the public, 
mainly on the securities it sold to finance the budget deficits in past 
years.
  The Government also pays interest from one budget account to another, 
mainly because it invests its various trust fund balances in Treasury 
securities. Net interest--which does not include these internal 
payments--closely measures Federal interest transactions with the 
public. In 1999, Federal outlays for net interest will total an 
estimated $241.8 billion.

The Interest Burden

  As noted above, the amount of net interest depends on the amount of 
debt held by the public, as well as on the interest rates on the 
Treasury securities that comprise that debt. In essence, debt held by 
the public is the total of all deficits that have accumulated in the 
past--minus the amount offset by budget surpluses. Recent large deficits 
sharply increased the ratio of debt held by the public to the Gross 
Domestic Product (GDP)--from 26.1 percent in 1980 to 50.2 percent in 
1993. Partly due to the huge rise in debt, interest rates on Treasury 
securities also rose sharply. The combination of much more debt and 
higher interest rates caused Federal net interest costs to mushroom--
from 1.9 to 3.3 percent of GDP between 1980 and 1991 (see Chart 29-1).
  Now that budget deficits have fallen dramatically, the ratio of net 
interest to GDP has begun to fall as well, from 3.3 percent in 1991 to 
3.1 percent in 1997. The combination of the 1997 Balanced Budget Act, 
the prospect of a balanced budget, low interest rates, and forecasts of 
lower rates in the future reduce the projected ratio further, to an 
estimated 2.1 percent in 2003.

Components of Net Interest

  Net interest is defined as gross interest on the public debt minus the 
interest received by on-budget and off-budget trust funds and minus all 
activities that fall under ``other interest'' (discussed later in this 
chapter).

  Gross Interest on the Public Debt: Gross interest on the public debt 
will total an estimated $366.6 billion in 1999 and $378.9 billion in 
2003. At the end of 1997, the gross debt totaled $5.370 trillion, of 
which $3.771 trillion was held by the public. The debt held by the 
public accounted for about a quarter of the total credit-market debt 
owed by the non-financial sector.
  The Treasury Department's management of the debt, including its 
decisions about how much to borrow in securities with different 
maturities, may substantially influence Federal interest payments. Since 
1993, the average maturity of marketable, privately held public debt has 
shrunk from five years

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and 10 months to five years and four months, cutting total interest 
outlays by an estimated $9.6 billion from 1994 to 1998. In 1997, the 
Treasury began issuing five- and 10-year notes indexed to the Consumer 
Price Index. The principal, payable at maturity, is adjusted each month 
for inflation, while interest, paid semiannually, is computed on the 
inflation-adjusted principal.

  Interest Received by On-Budget Trust Funds: On-budget trust funds will 
earn an estimated $67.4 billion in interest in 1999, and $74.5 billion 
in 2003. The civil service retirement and disability fund will receive 
almost half of it, while the military retirement fund will receive about 
a fifth. The Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund will receive 
over $8 billion in 1999.
  Interest Received by Off-Budget Trust Funds: Under current law, the 
receipts and disbursements of Social Security's old-age and survivors 
insurance (OASI) trust fund and disability insurance (DI) trust fund are 
excluded from the budget. Social Security, however, is a Federal 
program. Thus, net interest includes the off-budget interest earnings. 
Because Social Security will accumulate large surpluses over the next 
several years, interest earnings of all the off-budget trust funds will 
rise from an estimated $51.6 billion in 1999 to $76.3 billion in 2003.
  Other Interest: Other interest includes both interest payments and 
interest collections--much of it consisting of intra-governmental 
payments and collections that arise from Federal revolving funds. These 
funds borrow from the Treasury to carry out lending or other business-
type activities.

Budgetary Effect, including the Federal Reserve

  The Federal Reserve System buys and sells Treasury securities in the 
open market to implement monetary policy. The interest that Treasury 
pays on the securities owned by the Federal Reserve is included in net 
interest as a cost, but virtually all of it comes back to the Treasury 
as ``deposits

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of earnings of the Federal Reserve System.'' These budget receipts will 
total an estimated $24.6 billion in 1999 and $26.9 billion in 2003.