[Analytical Perspectives]
[Special Analyses and Presentations]
[11. Strengthening Federal Statistics]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office, www.gpo.gov]


 
                  11.  STRENGTHENING FEDERAL STATISTICS

  Our democracy and economy require unbiased, relevant, accurate, and 
timely statistics that public and private decision makers can use to 
improve the outcomes of their actions. Data on real Gross Domestic 
Product (GDP), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the trade deficit, 
for example, are critical inputs into monetary, fiscal, trade, and 
regulatory policy. They also have a major impact on government spending, 
budget projections, and the allocation of Federal funds. Economic data, 
such as measures of price change, have as well a significant influence 
on interest rates and cost-of-living adjustments that affect every 
American who runs a business, saves for retirement, or takes out a 
mortgage on a home.
  The U.S. Federal statistical system comprises some 70 agencies that 
collect, analyze, and disseminate information for use by governments, 
businesses, researchers, and the public. Approximately half of the 
funding for the statistical system provides resources for ten agencies 
that have statistical activities as their principal mission. (Please see 
Table 11-1.) The remaining funding is spread among some sixty agencies 
that carry out statistical activities in conjunction with other missions 
such as providing services or enforcing regulations.
  Under the aegis of the congressionally-mandated Interagency Council on 
Statistical Policy (ICSP), the principal agencies of the statistical 
system are making considerable progress in working together to improve 
the usefulness and the usability of all of their work. Priorities 
include, for example, better articulating the statistical activities of 
various agencies in the areas of families and children, wages and 
benefits, and health. Currently nearing completion is the inaugural 
presentation of a ``one-stop shopping'' service that is designed to 
encompass the electronic products of all seventy agencies and will help 
render the decentralized statistical system transparent for users. A 
most promising development to improve the quality and efficiency of 
Federal statistical programs is a legislative proposal that would allow 
the sharing of confidential data among statistical agencies under strict 
safeguards. Passage of this legislation and a complementary Treasury 
bill is a top priority of the Administration for the 105th Congress.
  Despite these accomplishments, however, rapid changes in our economy 
and society, coupled with limited resources to enable the statistical 
agencies to keep pace with these changes, have eroded the relevance and 
the reputation of our statistical system. Fortunately, the most serious 
shortcomings of the Nation's statistical infrastructure could be 
substantially mitigated by a limited number of initiatives. Proposals 
set forth in the Administration's budget would ameliorate the growing 
inability of our statistical system to mirror the current economy and to 
foster accurate allocation of increasingly scarce Federal resources. In 
particular, the initiatives would:
    address fundamental shortcomings in economic statistics to 
          provide a comprehensive, integrated, and internationally 
          comparable statistical base that measures economic growth, 
          trade, inflation, and productivity (please see highlights for 
          the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor 
          Statistics, and the Bureau of the Census);
    modernize our most basic industrial classification to 
          reflect the structural and technological changes that have 
          occurred in the economy over the past twenty years and 
          facilitate economic analyses that cover the entire North 
          American Free Trade Agreement area (please see the North 
          American Industry Classification System (NAICS) discussions in 
          the highlights for the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the 
          Bureau of the Census);
    improve the timeliness and accuracy of the Consumer Price 
          Index to permit more rapid revision in future years, to 
          produce alternative measures of the change in the cost of 
          living, and to allow more timely introduction of new goods 
          into the CPI (please see the CPI discussion in the highlights 
          for the Bureau of Labor Statistics);
    lead to the provision on an annual basis of more accurate 
          and flexible nationally comparable community-based data that 
          are used, among other things, to allocate more than $100 
          billion in Federal funds each year (please see the Decennial 
          Census and Continuous Measurement discussions in the 
          highlights for the Bureau of the Census); and
    capitalize on the strengths of several statistical agencies 
          to facilitate quantitative measurement and valid comparisons 
          of performance under the Government Performance and Results 
          Act.
  The following highlights elaborate on the Administration's proposals 
to strengthen the programs of the principal Federal statistical 
agencies.

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  HIGHLIGHTS OF 1998 PROGRAM CHANGES FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES

  Bureau of Economic Analysis: Increases are requested to: (1) implement 
the next steps in BEA's Mid-Decade Strategic Plan to improve measures of 
output and prices; (2) provide better measures of investment, savings, 
and wealth; (3) increase coverage of international transactions and (4) 
enable BEA to move its information processing from its 1970's vintage 
mainframe computer to an integrated local area network environment by 
the year 2000.
  Bureau of Justice Statistics: Stable funding is requested to maintain 
BJS's core statistical programs including the National Crime 
Victimization Survey, the Survey of Inmates in State and Federal 
Correctional Facilities, the 1998 Census of Jails, and the Criminal 
Justice Expenditure and Employment Survey.
  Bureau of Labor Statistics: Funding is requested to: (1) continue 
revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with release of the revised 
index based on the new market basket with data for January 1998, the 
revised housing sample with data for January 1999, and the completed 
revision in 2000; (2) develop a program to explore improvements to the 
CPI revision process that would make it possible to revise the CPI more 
rapidly, allow BLS to produce alternative measures of change in the cost 
of living, improve the measurement of changes in the quality of goods 
and services, and provide a basis to bring new goods into the CPI on a 
more timely basis; and (3) replace the Standard Industrial 
Classification (SIC) with the new North American Industry Classification 
System by beginning the re-coding of each workplace in BLS' 
establishment list using the new classification.
  Bureau of the Census: Funding is requested to: (1) prepare for the 
conduct of the 2000 Census including developing a comprehensive address 
list, conducting a dress rehearsal to test and evaluate new 
methodologies and systems to make the Census 2000 more accurate and less 
costly, and working with private sector partners to develop modern 
technology for more efficient and accurate data processing; (2) continue 
the development and testing of the Continuous Measurement program that 
will provide nationally comparable and consistent community-based data 
on an annual basis and permit elimination of the census long form in 
2010; (3) conduct the Economic Censuses and the Census of Governments 
for the 1997 reference year; (4) begin implementation of the North 
American Industry Classification System that will harmonize industry 
coding among Canada, Mexico, and the United States; (5) implement the 
Automated Export System that will improve customer service during the 
collection of export facilitation and compliance information as well as 
trade statistics; and (6) perform research and support activities 
related to reviews and possible revisions of Federal standard 
classifications of metropolitan areas, occupations, and race and 
ethnicity as well as the definition of poverty. In addition, funding was 
provided by the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity 
Reconciliation Act of 1996 to conduct the Survey of Program Dynamics to 
provide data to assess the impact of welfare provisions in that bill.
  Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Increases are requested to: (1) 
expand BTS data collection programs, develop analytical tools, and 
initiate a program of technical assistance to make national data sets 
more useful to State and local transportation decision makers; (2) lead 
the Transportation Department's development of more relevant and timely 
transportation system performance indicators to improve the information 
base supporting government and private sector transportation-related 
decision making; and (3) initiate data collections and analyses to 
improve the interfaces of domestic transportation with international 
systems.
  Economic Research Service: Increases are requested to: (1) improve 
data collection efforts on farming practices, including management of 
livestock waste, nutrients and pesticides, and irrigation; and (2) using 
these data, analyze the practices farmers are adopting and how effective 
the practices are in achieving United States Department of Agriculture 
conservation goals.
  Energy Information Administration: Reductions in requested funding 
from the 1997 enacted level will reduce the frequency of the Residential 
Energy Consumption Survey to a quadrennial basis; eliminate, 
consolidate, or reduce the frequency of several data collections and 
publications; and decrease the availability of hard-copy reports, 
although electronic dissemination will increase as will data collection 
and analysis in response to electric industry restructuring.
  National Agricultural Statistics Service: An increase is requested to 
implement the transfer of the Census of Agriculture from the Bureau of 
the Census to NASS, a shift that will more closely integrate the 
expertise of State agricultural officials in the conduct of the census 
and is expected to produce a more complete and accurate census while 
generating an offsetting cost reduction of $1 million in NASS list 
development and maintenance costs for other survey programs.
  National Center for Education Statistics: Increases are requested to: 
(1) adjust the frequency of the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 
from a five to a four year cycle; (2) initiate the Education 
Longitudinal Study 2000 to provide data on high school students as they 
progress through secondary school to postsecondary education and the 
world of work; (3) provide funding for continuation of the International 
Mathematics and Science Study; (4) support a School Crime Supplement to 
the National Crime Victimization Survey; (5) add a first grade fall 
collection to the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten Cohort 
to 

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measure school effects, student growth, and the effects of summer 
vacation on growth; (6) prepare for an Adult Literacy 2002 Study to 
ensure a ten year cycle for adult literacy data; (7) provide 
infrastructure support for local school districts to update the 
International Mathematics and Science Study data for grades 4, 8, and 
12; (8) begin preparations for the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study 
Birth Cohort to provide high quality data on children's experiences 
prior to entry into formal school settings; and (9) fund the National 
Assessment of Educational Progress to assess reading at the national and 
State levels every two years.
  National Center for Health Statistics: An increase is requested to 
fully fund the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey which is 
a fundamental source of data for monitoring trends in diseases and 
nutritional status, identifying health risk factors, and facilitating 
epidemiological research.

                                     

                   Table 11-1.  1996-1998 BUDGET AUTHORITY FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES                   
                                            (In millions of dollars)                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      1996 actual    1997 enacted   1998 request
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bureau of Economic Analysis........................................       40.5            40.9            47.0  
                                                                                                                
Bureau of Justice Statistics.......................................       21.4            21.4            21.5  
                                                                                                                
Bureau of Labor Statistics.........................................      343.1           360.8           379.5  
                                                                                                                
Bureau of the Census...............................................      293.7           355.5           671.2  
  Periodic Censuses and Programs...................................      150.1           210.5           523.1  
  Salaries and Expenses............................................      133.6           135.0           138.1  
  Survey of Program Dynamics \1\...................................       10.0            10.0            10.0  
                                                                                                                
Bureau of Transportation Statistics................................       18.4            24.8            31.1  
                                                                                                                
Economic Research Service..........................................       53.1            53.1            54.3  
                                                                                                                
Energy Information Administration..................................       72.2            66.1            62.8  
                                                                                                                
National Agricultural Statistics Service...........................       81.1           100.2           119.9  
                                                                                                                
National Center for Education Statistics...........................       76.0            79.8           101.8  
  Statistics.......................................................       46.2            50.0            66.3  
  Assessment.......................................................       29.8            29.8            35.5  
                                                                                                                
National Center for Health Statistics..............................       77.5            86.1            89.4  
  PHS Evaluation Funds.............................................       40.1            48.4            70.1  
  Budget Authority.................................................       37.4            37.7            19.3  
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\1\ Funding is provided by the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996.