[Analytical Perspectives]
[Budget Enforcement Act Preview Report]
[12. Preview Report]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]


                                     

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                         BUDGET ENFORCEMENT ACT

                             PREVIEW REPORT

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[[Page 201]]
 
                           12.  PREVIEW REPORT

   The Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (BEA) contains procedures designed 
to enforce the deficit reduction agreement of the Omnibus Budget 
Reconciliation Act of 1990. For 1991 through 1995, the BEA limited 
discretionary spending and established a ``pay-as-you-go'' requirement 
that legislation changing direct spending and receipts must, in total, 
be at least deficit neutral. These provisions were extended through 1998 
by the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (OBRA 1993), which 
became law on August 10, 1993. The Administration will propose to extend 
the BEA again, through the year 2002, and make other amendments to the 
BEA requirements. (See ``Proposals to Extend and Amend the BEA and Other 
Reforms to Strengthen the Budget Process'' below.)
   This Preview Report discusses the status of discretionary 
appropriations and pay-as-you-go legislation based on laws enacted as of 
March 1, 1996. In addition, it explains the differences between the OMB 
and CBO estimates of the discretionary caps.
   The OMB estimates use the economic and technical assumptions 
underlying the President's budget submission, as required by the BEA. 
The OMB Update Report that will be issued in August, and the Final 
Report that will be issued after the end of the Congressional session, 
must also use these economic and technical assumptions. Estimates in the 
Update Report and the Final Report will only be revised to reflect laws 
enacted after the Preview Report.
                    Discretionary Sequestration Report
   Discretionary programs are, in general, those that have their program 
levels established annually through the appropriations process. The 
scorekeeping guidelines accompanying the BEA identify accounts with 
discretionary resources. The BEA, as amended, limits budget authority 
and outlays available for discretionary programs each year through 1998. 
Appropriations that cause either the budget authority or outlay limits 
to be exceeded will trigger a sequester to eliminate any such breach.
   Adjustments to the limits.--The BEA permits certain adjustments to 
the discretionary limits--also known as caps. On January 18, 1996, the 
Office of Management and Budget submitted the Final Sequestration Report 
for 1996 required by the BEA. This report described adjustments 
permitted by the BEA as of the time the report was issued. The caps 
resulting from these adjustments are the starting points for this 
Preview Report. Included in this report are cap adjustments for 
differences between current and previous estimates of inflation, changes 
in concepts and definitions, and estimates of emergency spending. Table 
12-1 is a summary of all changes to the 1991 through 1998 caps 
originally enacted in law. Table 12-2 shows the impact on the caps of 
adjustments being made in this Preview Report. Table 12-2 displays both 
the General Purpose Discretionary Spending caps and the Violent Crime 
Reduction Trust Fund caps established by Public Law 103-322, the Violent 
Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994. 

                                                                TABLE 12-1.  SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO DISCRETIONARY SPENDING LIMITS                                                                
                                                                                     (In billions of dollars                                                                                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                         1991    1992    1993    1994    1995    1996    1997    1998    1991-98
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                      TOTAL DISCRETIONARY                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Statutory Caps as set in OBRA 1990 and OBRA 1993..............................................  BA                       491.7   503.4   511.5   510.8   517.7   519.1   528.1   530.6   4,113.0
                                                                                                OL                       514.4   524.9   534.0   534.8   540.8   547.3   547.3   547.9   4,291.4
Adjustments for changes in concepts and definitions...........................................  BA                      ......     7.7     8.2     8.2     8.8    -0.6    -0.4    -0.5      31.4
                                                                                                OL                      ......     1.0     2.4     0.6     1.0    -2.9    -2.6    -2.7      -3.1
Adjustments for changes in inflation..........................................................  BA                      ......    -0.5    -5.1    -9.5   -11.8     1.0     2.6     4.2     -19.1
                                                                                                OL                      ......    -0.3    -2.5    -5.8    -8.8     0.6     1.8     3.2     -11.6
Adjustments for credit reestimates, IRS funding, debt forgiveness, and IMF....................  BA                         0.2     0.2    13.0     0.6     0.7     0.1     0.1     0.1      14.8
                                                                                                OL                         0.3     0.3     0.8     0.8     0.9     0.0     0.0     0.1       3.3
Adjustments for emergency requirements........................................................  BA                         0.9     8.3     4.6    12.2     7.7     3.4  ......  ......      37.2
                                                                                                OL                         1.1     1.8     5.4     9.0    10.1     5.4     3.9     1.4      38.0
Adjustment pursuant to Sec. 2003 of P.L. 104-19\1\............................................  BA                      ......  ......  ......  ......   -15.0    -0.1    -0.1  ......     -15.1
                                                                                                OL                      ......  ......  ......  ......    -1.1    -3.5    -2.4    -1.5      -8.5
Adjustments for special allowances:                                                                                                                                                             
  Discretionary new budget authority..........................................................  BA                      ......     3.5     2.9     2.9     2.9  ......  ......  ......      12.1
                                                                                                OL                      ......     1.4     2.2     2.6     2.7     1.1     0.5     0.1      10.7
   Outlay allowance...........................................................................  BA                      ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ......  ........
                                                                                                OL                         2.6     1.7     0.5     1.0  ......  ......  ......  ......       5.7
                                                                                                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Subtotal, adjustments excluding Desert Shield/Desert Storm...............................  BA                         1.1    19.2    23.6    14.3    -6.7     3.8     2.2     3.7      61.3
                                                                                                OL                         3.9     5.9     8.8     8.3     4.8     0.8     1.3     0.6      34.5
Adjustments for Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm..........................................  BA                        44.2    14.0     0.6       *       *  ......  ......  ......      58.8
                                                                                                OL                        33.3    14.9     7.6     2.8     1.1  ......  ......  ......      59.6
                                                                                                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total adjustments.............................................................................  BA                        45.4    33.2    24.2    14.3    -6.7     3.8     2.2     3.7     135.3
                                                                                                OL                        37.2    20.8    16.4    11.1     5.9     0.8     1.3     0.6     102.5
                                                                                                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
Preview Report spending limits\2\.............................................................  BA                       537.1   536.6   535.7   525.1   511.0   523.0   530.3   534.4   4,233.2
                                                                                                OL                       551.6   545.7   550.4   545.9   546.7   548.0   548.7   548.5   4,385.4
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AAALess than $50 million.                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                
\1\P.L. 104-19, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for Additional Disaster Assistance, for Anti-Terrorism Initiatives, for Assistance in the Recovery from the Tragedy that Occurred at      
  Oklahoma City, and Rescissions Act, 1995, was signed into law on July 27, 1995. Section 2003 of that bill directed the Director of OMB to make a downward adjustment in the discretionary     
  spending limits for FYs 1995-1998 by the aggregate amount of the estimated reductions in new budget authority and outlays for discretionary programs resulting from the provisions of the     
  bill, other than emergencies appropriations.                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                                
\2\Reflects combined General Purpose Discretionary and Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund Discretionary spending limits. For 1996-1998 Statutory limits, see footnote 2 in Table 12-2.          

   OBRA 1993 extended the original discretionary caps through 1998 and 
it also requires OMB to adjust these caps for differences between the 
inflation estimates contained in the House Conference Report on the 1994 
Budget Resolution and those that are assumed in the President's Budget. 
The inflation estimates in the 1997 Budget are lower than those 
contained in the 1996 Budget and are computed on a different basis. 
Consistent with the new approach adopted by the Bureau of Economic 
Analysis this year (and followed by the Congressional Budget Office) for 
measuring inflation and real growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 
the inflation measure used to adjust the discretionary caps is on a 
chain-weighted rather than fixed-weighted basis.
   Because of this shift in measurement method, the inflation estimates 
in the economic assumptions for the 1996 Budget were, first, restated to 
a chain-weighted basis. Then, the difference between the restated 1996 
Budget inflation estimates and the comparable estimates for the 1997 
Budget were compared to produce the necessary inflation adjustment to 
the discretionary caps. The restated 1996 Budget inflation estimates for 
1996, 1997, and 1998 are 3.1 percent, 3.2 percent, and 3.3 percent, 
respectively. For the 1997 Budget, the comparable inflation estimates 
are 2.7 percent a year for 1996 through 1998. Thus, inflation estimates 
are lower in 1996, 1997, and 1998 by 0.4 percent, 0.5 percent, and 0.5 
percent, respectively. Adjusting the caps for these changes in inflation 
estimates reduces budget authority by $2.0 billion in 1996, $4.7 billion 
in 1997, and $7.3 billion in 1998. The estimated spendout of these 
reductions in budget authority reduces the outlays by $1.2 billion in 
1996, $3.3 billion in 1997, and $5.7 billion in 1998.
   Several cap adjustments represent changes in concepts and definitions 
resulting from legislative action that reclassified certain programs. 
These actions shifted programs between the mandatory (i.e., direct 
spending) category and the discretionary category. For instance, several 
1996 appropriations bills included provisions that modified mandatory 
programs. Since funding controlled by appropriations action is 
considered discretionary, the effects of these provisions are recorded 
as adjustments to the caps. The caps were also adjusted to reflect the 
proper classification of the National Service Trust Fund account under 
current law.
[[Page 202]]
   Another adjustment is for certain programs in the Department of 
Transportation's Federal-aid highways account. Some Federal-aid highways 
programs are not subject to the obligation limitation imposed by the 
Appropriations Committee and, therefore, are not controllable through 
the annual appropriations process. The budget authority for these 
programs was already classified as mandatory. Outlays for programs that 
are exempt from obligation limitation are reclassified as mandatory. 
Adjustments are shown for 1994 through 1998 to provide a comparable 
basis for consideration of highway programs that are exempt from 
Appropriations Committee control.
   Other adjustments to the limits.--The BEA identifies other 
adjustments to the discretionary caps that can be made only after 
legislation has been enacted. For example, spending that is designated 
as emergency requirements by the President and Congress will result in 
adjustments to the caps. On February 21, 1996, the President submitted a 
1996 supplemental request for $620 million for Department of Defense 
operations associated with the NATO-led Bosnia Peace Implementation 
Force (IFOR) and Operation Deny Flight, and $200 million for civilian 
implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords. Table 12-2 displays 
estimated adjustments for these emergency appropriations. The actual 
adjustments to the discretionary caps to be included in the final 
sequestration report at the end of the current session of Congress 
cannot be determined until appropriations have been enacted.
   The Administration proposes to shift funding for the prevention of 
Medicare fraud and abuse from discretionary spending for this purpose in 
the Department of Health and Human Services and in the Justice 
Department to mandatory spending. The discretionary caps and baseline 
would be adjusted consistent with this shift.
   Table 12-2 also displays proposed adjustments to the caps to reflect 
the President's proposals to amend the BEA to reduce allowable 
discretionary spending. From 1996 through 1998, these adjustments reduce 
total budget authority by $79.3 billion and total outlays by $22.6 
billion. The President will also propose to extend the discretionary 
caps through 2002. The extended caps are displayed in Table 12-3. This 
table also compares the President's discretionary proposals to the 
proposed caps. If the President's proposed cap reductions are enacted, 
the caps and discretionary spending proposed by the President will be 
equal.
[[Page 203]]
                                                                           TABLE 12-2.  DISCRETIONARY SPENDING LIMITS                                                                           
                                                                                    (In millions of dollars)                                                                                    
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                                                                                                                                         1994        1995        1996        1997        1998   
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                                     General Purpose Discretionary                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Total General Purpose Discretionary spending limits, January 18, 1996 Final Sequestration Report.......  BA                              525,146     508,546     520,713     529,845     536,087
                                                                                                         OL                              547,559     547,930     549,276     549,955     551,147
  Adjustments:                                                                                                                                                                                  
    Inflation..........................................................................................  BA                           ..........  ..........      -2,037      -4,656      -7,316
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........  ..........      -1,222      -3,303      -5,717
    Changes in concepts and definitions:                                                                                                                                                        
       Statutory and other shifts between categories...................................................  BA                           ..........  ..........  ..........         117          86
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........         -88         -61         211          17
      Transportation programs exempt from Appropriations Committee control.............................  BA                           ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........
                                                                                                         OL                               -1,708      -1,848      -2,302      -2,121      -1,860
    Contingent emergency appropriations release........................................................  BA                           ..........  ..........          17  ..........  ..........
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........  ..........          13           3           *
                                                                                                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal, adjustments for the Preview Report.....................................................  BA                           ..........  ..........      -2,020      -4,539      -7,230
                                                                                                         OL                               -1,708      -1,936      -3,572      -5,210      -7,560
                                                                                                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
Preview Report General Purpose Discretionary limits\1\.................................................  BA                              525,146     508,546     518,693     525,306     528,857
                                                                                                         OL                              545,850     545,994     545,704     544,745     543,588
Adjustments to Reflect Budget Reconciliation:                                                                                                                                                   
  Combating Medicare fraud and abuse (reclassification of discretionary to mandatory spending).........  BA                           ..........  ..........        -477        -476        -475
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........  ..........        -467        -472        -474
  Reduce discretionary limits to reflect President's proposals.........................................  BA                           ..........  ..........     -23,395     -28,559     -27,350
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........  ..........      -6,837      -6,328      -9,429
                                                                                                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
Revised Budget Enforcement Act Discretionary Limits....................................................  BA                              525,146     508,546     494,821     496,271     501,032
                                                                                                         OL                              545,850     545,994     538,400     537,945     533,685
                                                                                                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
Adjustments Under the Revised Budget Enforcement Act for Appropriations Committee Action:                                                                                                       
  Emergency supplemental appropriations................................................................  BA                           ..........  ..........         821  ..........  ..........
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........  ..........         566         208          30
  Funding to Implement Welfare Reform Provisions.......................................................  BA                           ..........  ..........         110         510         475
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........  ..........         103         486         478
                                                                                                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
General Purpose Discretionary Spending Limits Including Further Adjustments............................  BA                              525,146     508,546     495,752     496,781     501,507
                                                                                                         OL                              545,850     545,994     539,069     538,639     534,193
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                            Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund Discretionary                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Total Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund Discretionary spending limits, January 18, 1996 Final                                                                                                  
 Sequestration Report..................................................................................  BA                           ..........       2,423       4,287       5,000       5,500
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........         703       2,334       3,936       4,904
Preview Report Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund Discretionary spending limits........................  BA                           ..........       2,423       4,287       5,000       5,500
                                                                                                         OL                           ..........         703       2,334       3,936       4,904
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Combined General Purpose and Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund Discretionary spending limits..........  BA                              525,146     510,969     500,039     501,781     507,007
                                                                                                         OL                              545,850     546,697     541,403     542,575    539,097 
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AAA*Less than $500 thousand.                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                
\1\The discretionary spending limits shown in this table represent what the limits would be if the inflation adjustments and changes in concepts and definitions were made on a consistent      
  basis. The reclassification of transportation programs and the changes in estimates of inflation would impact the 1996 discretionary spending limits as shown above if such adjustments were  
  permitted under statute. However, the statutory adjustments can only be applied to the 1997 and 1998 limits. The statutory General Purpose Discretionary spending limits for 1996 through 1998
  are as follows (in millions of dollars):                                                                                                                                                      



                                                                        
                                            1996       1997       1998  
                                                                        
  Budget authority.....................    520,730    525,306    528,857
  Outlays..............................    549,289    545,254    543,750
                                                                        
[[Page 204]]
   The Administration also has proposed to adjust the caps for increases 
in discretionary spending by the Social Security Administration that 
will be necessary to implement the Administration's welfare reform 
proposals. The savings in mandatory spending--benefit payments--are 
expected to more than offset the increase in discretionary spending. 
Table 12-2 displays estimated adjustments for appropriations. The actual 
adjustments to the discretionary caps to be included in the final 
sequester report at the end of the current session of Congress cannot be 
determined until appropriations have been enacted.
   Sequester determinations.--Five days after enactment of an 
appropriations act, OMB must submit a report to Congress estimating the 
budget authority and outlays provided by the legislation for the current 
year and the budget year. These estimates must be based on the same 
economic and technical assumptions used in the most recent President's 
budget. In addition, the report must include CBO estimates and explain 
the differences between the OMB and CBO estimates. The OMB estimates are 
used in all subsequent calculations to determine whether a breach of any 
of the budget authority or outlay caps has occurred, and whether a 
sequester is required.
   Compliance with the discretionary caps is monitored throughout the 
fiscal year. The first determination of whether a sequester is necessary 
for a given fiscal year occurs when OMB issues its Final Sequestration 
Report after Congress adjourns to end a session--near the beginning of 
the fiscal year. The monitoring process begins again after Congress 
reconvenes for a new session. Appropriations for the fiscal year in 
progress that cause a breach in the caps would, if enacted before July 
1st, trigger a sequester. When such a breach is estimated, a ``within-
session'' sequestration report and Presidential sequestration order are 
issued. For a breach that results from appropriations enacted on or 
after July 1st, reductions necessary to eliminate the breach are not 
applied to the budgetary resources available in the current year. 
Instead, the corresponding caps for the following fiscal year are 
reduced by the amount of the breach. A within-session sequester can only 
be caused by newly enacted appropriations. Reestimates of budget 
authority and outlays for already enacted funds cannot trigger a 
sequester.
   OMB reported in its most recent Final Sequestration Report to the 
President and the Congress that discretionary appropriations enacted for 
1996 were within the prescribed spending limits. Since that time, the 
President has signed the 1996 Foreign Operations Appropriations bill and 
the Ninth Continuing Resolution. Given the constraint on discretionary 
spending imposed by the Congressional Budget Resolution for 1996, 
neither OMB or CBO anticipate that subsequent appropriations for 1996 
will cause a sequester.

                                                                                  TABLE 12-3.  BUDGET PROPOSALS                                                                                 
                                                                                    (In millions of dollars)                                                                                    
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                                                                                                                        1996       1997       1998       1999       2000       2001       2002  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                                                                                
                       General Purpose Discretionary Spending                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                
 Estimated Limits...................................................................  BA                               495,752    496,781    501,507  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                                                                      OL                               539,069    538,639    534,193  .........  .........  .........  .........
 President's General Purpose Discretionary Proposals................................  BA                               495,752    496,781    501,507  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                                                                      OL                               539,069    538,639    534,193  .........  .........  .........  .........
President's Proposals Compared to the General Purpose Discretionary Limits..........  BA                             .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                                                                      OL                             .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund Spending                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                
 Estimated Limits...................................................................  BA                                 4,287      5,000      5,500  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                                                                      OL                                 2,334      3,936      4,904  .........  .........  .........  .........
President's Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund (VCRTF) Proposals....................  BA                                 4,081      5,000      5,500  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                                                                      OL                                 2,118      3,661      4,904  .........  .........  .........  .........
President's Proposals Compared to the Violent Crime Reduction Limits................  BA                                  -206  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                                                                      OL                                  -216       -275  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
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                            Total Discretionary Spending                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                
 Estimated Limits...................................................................  BA                               500,039    501,781    507,007    511,066    516,098    511,727    514,672
                                                                                      OL                               541,403    542,575    539,097    535,693    536,821    526,563    527,097
 Fiscal Dividend....................................................................  BA                             .........  .........  .........  .........  .........     34,341     55,282
                                                                                      OL                             .........  .........  .........  .........  .........     21,663     45,763
Adjusted Estimated Limits...........................................................  BA                               500,039    501,781    507,007    511,066    516,098    546,068    569,954
                                                                                      OL                               541,403    542,575    539,097    535,693    536,821    548,226    572,860
President's Discretionary Proposals.................................................  BA                               499,833    501,781    507,007    511,066    516,098    546,068    569,954
                                                                                      OL                               541,187    542,300    539,097    535,693    536,821    548,226    572,860
President's Discretionary Proposals Compared to the Adjusted Discretionary Limits...  BA                                  -206  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
                                                                                      OL                                  -216       -275  .........  .........  .........  .........  .........
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[[Page 205]]
                      TABLE 12-4.  COMPARISON OF OMB AND CBO DISCRETIONARY SPENDING LIMITS                      
                                            (In millions of dollars)                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                               1996         1997         1998   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      General Purpose Discretionary                                                             
                                                                                                                
CBO Preview Report limits:\1\                                                                                   
  BA.....................................................................      520,730      525,145      528,303
  OL.....................................................................      549,284      544,822      543,308
                                                                                                                
OMB Preview Report statutory limits:                                                                            
  BA.....................................................................      520,730      525,306      528,857
  OL.....................................................................      549,289      545,254      543,750
                                                                                                                
Difference:                                                                                                     
  BA.....................................................................  ...........         -161         -554
  OL.....................................................................           -5         -432         -442
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                
            Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund Discretionary:                                                   
                                                                                                                
CBO Preview Report limits:\1\                                                                                   
  BA.....................................................................        4,287        5,000        5,500
  OL.....................................................................        2,334        3,936        4,904
                                                                                                                
OMB Preview Report statutory limits:                                                                            
  BA.....................................................................        4,287        5,000        5,500
  OL.....................................................................        2,334        3,936        4,904
                                                                                                                
Difference:                                                                                                     
  BA.....................................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........
  OL.....................................................................  ...........  ...........  ...........
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\CBO Preview Report limit estimates are preliminary.                                                          

   Sequester calculations.--If either the discretionary budget authority 
or outlay caps are exceeded, an across-the-board reduction of 
sequestrable budgetary resources would be required to eliminate the 
breach. The percentage reduction for certain special-rule programs would 
be limited to 2 percent. Once this limit is reached, the uniform 
percentage reduction for all other discretionary sequestrable resources 
would be increased to a level sufficient to achieve the required 
reduction. If both the budget authority and outlay caps are exceeded, a 
sequester would first be calculated to eliminate the budget authority 
breach. If estimated outlays still remained above the cap, even after 
applying the available outlay allowance, further reductions in budgetary 
resources to eliminate the outlay breach would then be required.
   Comparison between OMB and CBO discretionary limits.--Section 
254(d)(5) of the BEA requires an explanation of differences between OMB 
and CBO estimates for the discretionary spending limits. Table 12-4 
compares OMB and CBO limits for 1996 through 1998. Differences for 1996 
through 1998 are due primarily to the difference in forecast inflation 
and spendout rate differences for other adjustments to the caps.
                   Pay-As-You-Go Sequestration Report
   This section of the Preview Report discusses the enforcement 
procedures that apply to direct spending and receipts. The BEA defines 
direct spending as budget authority provided by law other than 
appropriations acts, entitlement authority, and the food stamp program. 
Social Security and the Postal Service are not subject to pay-as-you-go 
enforcement. Legislation specifically designated as an emergency 
requirement and legislation fully funding the Government's commitment to 
protect insured deposits are also exempt from pay-as-you-go enforcement.
   Current law requires that direct spending and receipts legislation 
should not increase the deficit in any year through 1998. If it does, 
and if it is not fully offset by other legislative savings, the increase 
must be offset by sequestration of direct spending programs. Net savings 
enacted for one fiscal year can be used to offset net increases in the 
subsequent year. The tables entitled Summary of Budget Proposals, 
Estimates of Mandatory Budget Proposals by Program, and Effect of 
Proposals on Receipts in the Summary Tables chapter of the Budget 
demonstrate that the President's budget meets the PAYGO requirement.
   Sequester determinations.--Within five days after enactment of direct 
spending or receipts legislation, OMB is required to submit a report to 
Congress estimating the change in outlays or receipts for each fiscal 
year through 1998 resulting from that legislation. The estimates must 
use the economic and technical assumptions underlying the most recent 
President's budget. These OMB estimates are used to determine whether 
the pay-as-you-go requirements have been met.
   The cumulative nature of the pay-as-you-go process requires 
maintaining a ``scorecard'' that shows, beginning with the 102nd 
Congress, the deficit impact of enacted direct spending and receipts 
legislation and required pay-as-you-go sequesters. The pay-as-you-go 
Preview Report is intended to show how these past actions affect the 
upcoming fiscal year.
   As of March 1, 1996, OMB had issued 308 reports on legislation 
affecting direct spending and receipts. Most of these (82 percent) 
either had no effect on the deficit or changed it by less than $10 
million in each year. Less than ten percent of the pay-as-you-go 
[[Page 206]]
legislation had a deficit impact greater than $50 million in any one 
year.
   Table 12-5 shows OMB estimates for legislation enacted through March 
1, 1996. In total, pay-as-you-go legislation enacted to date has 
increased the combined 1996 and 1997 deficits by $2.4 billion. As 
required by Section 254 (d)(3)(c) of the Budget Enforcement Act, if 
legislation offsetting this increase is not enacted, a sequester of 
certain direct spending programs is required. This report projects a 
sequester of 1.1 percent of mandatory spending would be required to 
eliminate this increase. Any such sequester would take place after OMB's 
final sequester report for 1997 is issued. Table 12-6 shows the amounts 
that would be sequestered from major mandatory programs if legislation 
offsetting the deficit increase is not enacted in the current session of 
Congress.
   A pay-as-you-go sequester would apply solely to direct spending 
accounts. By law, most direct spending is exempt from sequestration, and 
there are special rules that limit the size of a sequester for several 
direct spending accounts. In 1997, total direct spending is estimated to 
be $863.1 billion. Of this, only $26.0 billion is subject to 
sequestration. Table 12-6 shows the composition of the direct spending 
sequestrable universe.

                                           TABLE 12-5.  PAY-AS-YOU-GO LEGISLATION ENACTED AS OF MARCH 1, 1996                                           
                                                                 (In millions of dollars                                                                
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                         Change in the baseline deficit 
   Report         Act number                                           Act title                                      ----------------------------------
   number                                                                                                               1996    1997    1998   1996-1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legislation enacted in the 2nd session of the 104th Congress:                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                        
302            P.L. 104-93       Intelligence Authorization Act:                                                                                        
              H.R. 1655            Revenue effect                                                                      ......  ......  ......  .........
                                   Direct spending effect                                                              ......  ......  ......  .........
                                   Net deficit effect                                                                  ......  ......  ......  .........
                                                                                                                                                        
303           P.L. 104-96        Smithsonian Institution Sesquicentennial Commemorative Coin Act of 1995                                                
              H.R. 2627            Revenue effect                                                                      ......  ......  ......  .........
                                   Direct spending effect                                                              ......  ......  ......  .........
                                   Net deficit effect                                                                  ......  ......  ......  .........
                                                                                                                                                        
304           P.L. 104-104       Telecommunications Act of 1996:                                                                                        
              S. 652               Revenue effect                                                                      ......     400   1,200     1,600 
                                   Direct spending effect                                                              ......     404   1,205     1,609 
                                   Net deficit effect                                                                  ......       4       5         9 
                                                                                                                                                        
305           P.L. 104-105       Farm Credit System Reform Act:                                                                                         
              H.R. 2029            Revenue effect                                                                      ......  ......  ......  .........
                                   Direct spending effect                                                                  -1      -1      -1        -3 
                                   Net deficit effect                                                                      -1      -1      -1        -3 
                                                                                                                                                        
306           P.L. 104-106       Defense Authorization Act:                                                                                             
              S. 1124              Revenue effect                                                                      ......  ......  ......  .........
                                   Direct spending effect                                                                 315     609     852     1,776 
                                   Net deficit effect                                                                     315     609     852     1,776 
                                                                                                                                                        
307           P.L. 104-110       Extension of VA Medical and Housing Programs:                                                                          
              H.R. 2353            Revenue effect                                                                      ......  ......  ......  .........
                                   Direct spending effect                                                                  -3      -1  ......        -4 
                                   Net deficit effect                                                                      -3      -1  ......        -4 
                                                                                                                                                        
308           P.L. 104-111       Congressional Gold Medal for Ruth and Billy Graham:                                                                    
              H.R. 2657            Revenue effect                                                                      ......  ......  ......  .........
                                    Direct spending effect                                                             ......  ......  ......  .........
                                    Net deficit effect                                                                 ......  ......  ......  .........
                                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   Subtotal, enacted this session, as of March 1, 1996:                                                                 
                                    Revenue effect...................................................................  ......     400   1,200     1,600 
                                    Direct spending effect...........................................................     311   1,011   2,056     3,378 
                                    Net deficit effect...............................................................     311     611     856     1,778 
                                ========================================================================================================================
                                     Total, legislation enacted:                                                                                        
                                      Revenue effect.................................................................  -1,432  -1,421    -999    -3,853 
                                      Direct spending effect.........................................................    -404     -33   1,373       936 
                                      Net deficit effect.............................................................   1,028   1,389   2,371     4,789 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 207]]

  TABLE 12-6.  SEQUESTRABLE MANDATORY SPENDING AND POTENTIAL SEQUESTER  
                                 AMOUNTS                                
                  (1997 outlays in millions of dollars)                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 Subject                
                                                    to       Projected  
                                                Sequester   Sequester\1\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sequestration limited to automatic spending                             
 increases:                                                             
  Special milk program........................  .........  .............
  Vocational rehabilitation basic State grants         45           45  
                                               -------------------------
    Subtotal, automatic spending increases....         45           45  
Sequestration according to special rules:                               
  Federal Family Education Loan program.......         66           66  
  Payments to states for foster care and                                
   adoption assistance........................          8            8  
                                               -------------------------
    Subtotal, special rules...................         74           74  
Medicare (maximum sequester of 4 percent).....      7,740        2,101  
Subject to across-the-board sequestration:                              
  Commodity Credit Corporation (incl.                                   
   sequestrable 1988 amount)..................      3,988           43  
  Social Services Block Grants................      2,520           27  
  Family support payments to states...........      2,182           24  
  Crop insurance corporation fund.............      1,117           12  
  Justice activities financed by immigration                            
   and border fees............................        904           10  
  Veterans Education and Readjustment Benefits        822            9  
  Payments to States for AFDC Work Programs...        750            8  
  Direct student loans program account........        531            6  
  Payments to States for Mineral Leasing Act..        515            6  
  Forest Service permanent appropriations.....        493            5  
  Assets Forfeiture Fund......................        363            4  
  Rehabilitation services and handicapped                               
   research...................................        266            3  
  Customs salaries and expenses, unclaimed or                           
   abandoned goods............................        284            3  
  Surcharge collections, sales of comissary                             
   stores.....................................        255            3  
  Forest Service, Cooperative Work Trust Fund.        232            3  
  Federal Unemployment Benefits and Allowances        211            2  
  Lower Colorado River Basin fund.............        141            2  
  Treasury Forfeiture Fund....................        121            1  
  VA medical cost recovery fund...............        118            1  
  Agricultural marketing service,                                       
   miscellaneous trust funds..................         90            1  
  Fees and expenses of witnesses..............         88            1  
  Crime victims fund..........................         84            1  
  Unemployment insurance extended benefits....         69            1  
  Judiciary filing fees.......................         63            1  
  Other sequestrable spending.................      1,862           20  
                                               -------------------------
  Subtotal, subject to across-the-board                                 
   sequestration..............................     18,069          196  
                                                                        
Total, sequestrable mandatory outlays.........     25,928        2,417  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAA\1\ These are the amounts that would be sequestered based on         
  legislation enacted as of 3/1/96. OMB's final determination of the    
  need for a sequester will be made at the end of this session of       
  Congress and will take into account legislation enacted during the    
  current session.                                                      
                                                                        

 Proposals to Extend and Amend the BEA and Other Reforms to Strengthen 
                           the Budget Process
   The Administration proposes to extend the BEA requirements generally, 
to reduce the discretionary caps below current levels, and to make other 
procedural changes to improve budget enforcement. In addition to the BEA 
changes, the Administration urges the Congress to complete legislation 
granting the President line-item veto authority.
   Extend the BEA's discretionary spending and ``pay-as-you-go'' (PAYGO) 
requirements.--The BEA has been an effective constraint on laws that 
would increase discretionary spending or increase the deficit. That is 
why, in 1993, the Congress and the President agreed to extend the 
requirements of the BEA through 1998. Now, the BEA requirements need to 
be extended again to support the goal of a balanced budget by the year 
2002. The Administration proposes to lower the discretionary spending 
caps for 1996 through 1998 and to enact caps for 1999 through 2002 that 
are below baseline discretionary spending levels for those years. The 
Administration proposes to extend, through 2002, the PAYGO requirements 
for offsets to legislation that would increase mandatory spending or 
reduce receipts.
   Cap adjustment authority for savings initiatives.--When the BEA was 
enacted in 1990, it authorized cap adjustments, within specified limits, 
for each of the years 1991 through 1995 in order to accommodate annual 
appropriations for an Internal Revenue Service compliance initiative. 
The Administration proposes that similar cap adjustment authority be 
provided to accomodate increases in discretionary spending by the Social 
Security Administration necessary to implement the Administration's 
welfare reform proposals. The savings in mandatory spending (benefit 
payments) are 
[[Page 208]]
expected to more than offset the increase in discretionary 
spending.
   The Administration proposes to increase funding for the prevention of 
Medicare fraud and abuse. Rather than increase discretionary spending, 
legislation will be proposed to substitute increased levels of mandatory 
spending for the current levels of discretionary spending for this 
purpose in the Department of Health and Human Services and in the 
Justice Department. The savings in mandatory Medicare benefit payments 
are expected to more than offset the increase in mandatory spending. 
Alternatively, Congress could continue to provide discretionary funding 
for fraud and abuse prevention with increases accommodated through cap 
adjustment authority like that proposed for the welfare reform 
initiative.
   Amend the asset sale scoring rule.--The BEA's asset sale scoring rule 
prohibits scoring the proceeds from asset sales as offsets to 
discretionary spending or PAYGO legislation, even where there is general 
agreement that selling the asset is good policy. The rule was originally 
intended primarily to stop uneconomic loan asset sales, before the 
Credit Reform Act of 1990 effectively ended this practice.
   The Congress waived the scoring rule for purposes of the concurrent 
resolution on the 1996 budget. In the conference report on the budget 
resolution, the conferees said that the asset sale scoring prohibition 
should be repealed and consideration should be given to replacing it 
with a methodology that takes into account the long-term budgetary 
impact of asset sales. They said that assets should not be sold if such 
sale would increase the budget deficit over the long run. The 
Administration agrees and proposes to work with the Congress to develop 
a new scorekeeping guideline. At a minimum, the guideline should require 
that all losses of receipts and reductions in outlays resulting from the 
sale, as well as the immediate receipts from the sale, be taken into 
account in determining whether an asset should be sold.
   Establish ``fiscal dividend'' procedures.--The Administration 
proposes to establish procedures for dividing any ``fiscal dividend'' in 
2000 among tax cuts, spending increases, and deficit reduction in 2001 
and 2002. Under the Administration's proposal, a fiscal dividend would 
occur if the actual deficit in 2000 were below the deficit target for 
that year. The deficit target would be fixed at CBO's estimate in the 
1997 budget process of the deficit for 2000. The dividend would be 
applied in as many as three steps, depending on the whether the dividend 
were less than $20 billion, between $20 and $40 billion, or greater than 
$40 billion. To illustrate, if the deficit target were $100 billion, 
then any dividend would be applied as follows: