Strategy for crisis management in South China Sea

(a)

Crisis defined

In this section, the term crisis means an incident or situation that creates a condition of such national security importance that the President or the Secretary of Defense may consider a commitment of the United States Armed Forces or Department resources, or the initiation of activities by the Department of Defense, to achieve or defend national objectives.(b)

Strategy

The Secretary of Defense shall develop a strategy for crisis management in the South China Sea that—(1)identifies the exact locations of the most likely flashpoints in the South China Sea that could lead to scenarios of crises short of war that would require heightened interagency and international coordination; and(2)includes, for each major likely flashpoint, a crisis playbook with sequenced response options and a plan for coordination with foreign partners.(c)

Objectives

The strategy required by subsection (b) shall be designed—(1)to deny the aim of the People’s Republic of China and deter further People’s Republic of China provocation or actions that expand the crisis;(2)to ensure the safety of United States citizens and residents in the region and in the United States;(3)to ensure the safety of members of the United States Armed Forces in the region, including safety from accidents;(4)to preserve United States economic interests in the region, including protecting key trade and commerce routes;(5)to protect United States national security interests, including by upholding treaty obligations and protecting allies and partners; and(6)to manage possible escalation into combat operations by taking opportunities for de-escalation and maintaining strategic stability.(d)

Crisis playbooks

(1)

In general

Each crisis playbook required by subsection (b)(2)—(A)shall be developed by the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State, the applicable Chief of Mission, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the head of any other relevant agency; and(B)shall be informed by the intelligence community and relevant experts.(2)

Elements

Each crisis playbook shall include the following:(A)A list of specific indicators that would elevate a scenario from a baseline of gray-zone conditions to the level of a crisis.(B)Not less than one planning scenario that could lead to crisis, with clearly identified assumptions, phases, and likely branches.(C)Anticipated decision points and recommended options, sequenced across all identified phases. The Secretary of Defense shall consider at least the following types of recommended options:(i)Response options for Department action, across the range of possible decisions across the Department, including force employment, military posture, Department official statements or travel, engagements or public announcements, capability demonstrations or tests.(ii)Recommendations for types of ongoing Department activities to consider ceasing, reducing, or changing in scale or type.(iii)Diplomatic and economic options, developed in coordination with the Secretary of State, the applicable Chief of Mission, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the head of any other relevant agency, to accompany the options for the Department.(D)Each option recommended under subparagraph (C) shall include a cost-benefit-risk analysis, specifically—(i)the projected benefit of the option;(ii)the assessed risk to members of the United States Armed Forces;(iii)the estimated financial cost;(iv)the projected humanitarian impact, including the impact on local civilians;(v)the projected impact to escalation risk; and(vi)any accompanying risk mitigation strategies.(E)A list of possible off-ramps, including a description of indicators of such off-ramps and recommendations of options for the Secretary of Defense to take advantage of such off-ramps.(F)An engagement plan—(i)for streamlined communication and coordination with relevant foreign partners during each phase of the crisis to design collective diplomatic, economic and military responses to People’s Republic of China coercion and avoid potential actions that could unnecessarily provoke or exacerbate a tense situation; and(ii)that identifies recommendations for specific immediate actions the Secretary of Defense should take now to pre-coordinate with foreign partners.(e)

Semiannual review

Not less frequently than semiannually, the Secretary of Defense shall review, update as necessary, and validate each crisis playbook developed under subsection (b)(2).(f)

Interim report

(1)

In general

Not later than 120 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to Committees on Armed Services of the Senate and the House of Representatives a progress report that—(A)details the list of locations and scenarios identified under subsection (b)(1);(B)provides a status update on the development of the crisis playbook required by subsection (b)(2);(C)sets forth a plan for the completion of such playbooks not later than March 2027; and(D)details the process by which such playbooks will be reviewed, updated as necessary, and validated under subsection (e).(2)

Form

The interim report required by paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex.(g)

Report

(1)

In general

Not later than one year after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the Committees on Armed Services of the Senate the House of Representatives a report that summarizes the strategy developed under subsection (b).(2)

Form

The report required by paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex.(h)

Rule of construction

Nothing in this section may be construed to require the options set forth in a playbook developed under subsection (b)(2) to be the only options considered or followed in a crisis scenario.