II 110th CONGRESS 1st Session S. 1018 IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES March 28, 2007 Mr. Durbin (for himself, Mr. Hagel, and Mrs. Feinstein) introduced the following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Select Committee on Intelligence A BILL To address security risks posed by global climate change and for other purposes.

1.

Short title

This Act may be cited as the Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act.

2.

Findings

Congress makes the following findings: (1)According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2007 the average annual temperature in the United States and around the globe is approximately 1.0 degree Fahrenheit warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and the rate of warming has accelerated during the past 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that the Earth will warm 0.72 degrees Fahrenheit during the next 2 decades with current emission trends. (2)The annual national security strategy report submitted pursuant to section 108 of the National Security Act of 1947 (50 U.S.C. 404a) for 2006 states that the United States faces new security challenges, including environmental destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis. Problems of this scope may overwhelm the capacity of local authorities to respond, and may even overtax national militaries, requiring a larger international response. These challenges are not traditional national security concerns, such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. But if left unaddressed they can threaten national security.. (3)According to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, average temperature increases of between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels are projected to cause the sea level to rise by between 2 and 4 meters by 2100 due to melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. (4)In 2007, more than 200,000,000 people live in coastal floodplains around the world and 2,000,000 square kilometers of land and an estimated $1,000,000,000,000 worth of assets are less than a 1-meter elevation above sea level. (5)An estimated 1,700,000,000 people in the world live in areas where water is scarce and in 25 years that population is projected to increase to 5,400,000,000. Climate change will impact the hydrological cycle and change the location, time of year, and intensity of water availability. (6)The report of the World Health Organization entitled The World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks and Promoting Healthy Life states that Effects of climate change on human health can be expected to be mediated through complex interactions of physical, ecological, and social factors. These effects will undoubtedly have a greater impact on societies or individuals with scarce resources, where technologies are lacking, and where infrastructure and institutions (such as the health sector) are least able to adapt.. (7)Environmental changes relating to global climate change represent a potentially significant threat multiplier for instability around the world as changing precipitation patterns may exacerbate competition and conflict over agricultural, vegetative, and water resources and displace people, thus increasing hunger and poverty and causing increased pressure on fragile countries. (8)The strategic, social, political, and economic consequences of global climate change are likely to have a greater adverse effect on less developed countries with fewer resources and infrastructures that are less able to adjust to new economic and social pressures, and where the margin for governance and survival is thin. (9)The consequences of global climate change represent a clear and present danger to the security and economy of the United States. (10)A failure to recognize, plan for, and mitigate the strategic, social, political, and economic effects of a changing climate will have an adverse impact on the national security interests of the United States.

3.

National Intelligence Estimate on global climate change

(a)

Requirement for National Intelligence Estimate

(1)

In general

Except as provided in paragraph (2), not later than 270 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Director of National Intelligence shall submit to Congress a National Intelligence Estimate on the anticipated geopolitical effects of global climate change and the implications of such effects on the national security of the United States. (2)

Notice regarding submittal

If the Director of National Intelligence determines that the National Intelligence Estimate required by paragraph (1) cannot be submitted by the date set out in that paragraph, the Director shall notify Congress and provide— (A)the reasons that the National Intelligence Estimate cannot be submitted by such date; and (B)an estimated date for the submittal of the National Intelligence Estimate. (b)

Content

The Director of National Intelligence shall prepare the National Intelligence Estimate required by this section using the mid-range projections of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change— (1)to assess the political, social, agricultural, and economic risks during the 30-year period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act posed by global climate change for countries or regions that are— (A)of strategic economic or military importance to the United States and at risk of significant impact due to global climate change; or (B)at significant risk of large-scale humanitarian suffering with cross-border implications as predicted on the basis of the assessments; (2)to assess other risks posed by global climate change, including increased conflict over resources or between ethnic groups, within countries or transnationally, increased displacement or forced migrations of vulnerable populations due to inundation or other causes, increased food insecurity, and increased risks to human health from infectious disease; (3)to assess the capabilities of the countries or regions described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of paragraph (1) to respond to adverse impacts caused by global climate change; (4)to assess the strategic challenges and opportunities posed to the United States by the risks described in paragraph (1); (5)to assess the security implications and opportunities for the United States economy of engaging, or failing to engage successfully, with other leading and emerging major contributors of greenhouse gas emissions in efforts to reduce emissions; and (6)to make recommendations for further assessments of security consequences of global climate change that would improve national security planning. (c)

Coordination

In preparing the National Intelligence Estimate under this section, the Director of National Intelligence shall consult with representatives of the scientific community, including atmospheric and climate studies, security studies, conflict studies, economic assessments, and environmental security studies, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, the Administrator of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, the Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Secretary of Energy, and the Secretary of Agriculture, and, if appropriate, multilateral institutions and allies of the United States that have conducted significant research on global climate change. (d)

Form

The National Intelligence Estimate required by this section shall be submitted in unclassified form, to the extent consistent with the protection of intelligence sources and methods, and include unclassified key judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate. Such National Intelligence Estimate may include a classified annex.

4.

Response to the National Intelligence Estimate

(a)

Report by the Secretary of Defense

Not later than 270 days after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Armed Services, and the Select Committee on Intelligence of the Senate and the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Armed Services, and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the House of Representatives a report on— (1)the projected impact on the military installations and capabilities of the United States of the effects of global climate change as assessed in the National Intelligence Estimate; (2)the projected impact on United States military operations of the effects of global climate change described in the National Intelligence Estimate; and (3)recommended research and analysis needed to further assess the impacts on the military of global climate change. (b)

Sense of Congress on the next Quadrennial Defense Review

It is the sense of Congress that the Secretary of Defense should address the findings of the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 regarding the impact of global climate change and potential implications of such impact on the Armed Forces and for the size, composition, and capabilities of Armed Forces in the next Quadrennial Defense Review. (c)

Report by the Secretary of State

Not later than 270 days after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of State shall submit to the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign Relations, and the Select Committee on Intelligence of the Senate and the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign Affairs, and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the House of Representatives a report that addresses— (1)the potential for large migration flows in countries of strategic interest or humanitarian concern as a response to changes in climate and the implications for United States security interests; and (2)the potential for diplomatic opportunities and challenges facing United States policy makers as a result of social, economic, or political responses of groups or nations to global changing climate.

5.

Authorization of research

(a)

In general

The Secretary of Defense is authorized to carry out research on the impacts of global climate change on military operations, doctrine, organization, training, material, logistics, personnel, and facilities and the actions needed to address those impacts. Such research may include— (1)the use of war gaming and other analytical exercises; (2)analysis of the implications for United States defense capabilities of large-scale Arctic sea-ice melt and broader changes in Arctic climate; (3)analysis of the implications for United States defense capabilities of abrupt climate change; (4)analysis of the implications of the findings derived from the National Intelligence Estimate required in section 3 of the Act for United States defense capabilities; (5)analysis of the strategic implications for United States defense capabilities of direct physical threats to the United States posed by extreme weather events such as hurricanes; and (6)analysis of the existing policies of the Department of Defense to assess the adequacy of the Department's protections against climate risks to United States capabilities and military interests in foreign countries. (b)

Report

Not later than 2 years after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to Congress a report on the results of the research, war games, and other activities carried out pursuant to subsection (a).

6.

Authorization of appropriations

There is authorized to be appropriated such sums as may be necessary to carry out this Act.